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Earth's 4th Warmest September on Record; 32 Billion-Dollar Disasters so far in 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:26 PM GMT on October 25, 2013

September 2013 was the globe's 4th warmest September since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The year-to-date period of January - September has been the 6th warmest such period on record. September 2013 global land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 4th warmest on record. September 2013 was the 343nd consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 3rd warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2013 in his September 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2013, the 4th warmest September for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across most of Australia and part of central Asia, as well as part of southwestern Canada. Most of central and northern North America, northern Europe, and much of central and southern Asia were much warmer than average. Cooler and much-cooler-than-average temperatures occurred across much of central and eastern Russia, along with most of eastern Europe and western Greenland. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

The five billion-dollar weather disasters of September 2013
Five billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during September 2013, bringing the world-wide tally of these disasters so far in 2013 to 32, according to the September 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This is the third highest yearly total for the globe since accurate disaster records began in 2000, according to Senior Scientist Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield. The record highest was 40 billion-dollar disasters in 2010. For comparison, during all of 2012, there were 27 billion-dollar weather disasters; the tally in 2011 was 35 (adjusted for inflation.) The U.S. total so far in 2013 is seven.




Disaster 1. The most damaging billion-dollar weather disaster of September was in Mexico, where Hurricane Manuel made two landfalls along Mexico's Pacific coast. Flooding from Manuel's torrential rains caused $4.2 billion in damage and left 169 people dead or missing. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this was the second most expensive weather-related disaster in Mexican history, behind the $6 billion in damage (2013 dollars) wrought by Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. In this aerial view, we see the landslide triggered by Hurricane Manuel's rains that killed 43 people in La Pintada, México, on September 19, 2013. (Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty)


Disaster 2. Super Typhoon Usagi made landfall near Shanwei, China on September 22, 2013 as a Category 2 typhoon with 110 mph winds, after skirting the Philippines and Tawian. The storm killed at least 37 people and did $3.8 billion in damage. Property damage was widespread in five Chinese provinces as Usagi damaged at least 101,200 homes. This radar image of Usagi shows that the typhoon had multiple concentric eyewalls as it approached landfall. Image credit: weather.com.cn.


Disaster 3. Record rainfall of 8 - 15" triggered historic flash flooding across in Colorado September 11 - 12, 2013, killing at least nine people and doing $2 billion in damage. The most significant damage occurred in Boulder, Larimer and El Paso counties after several major rivers and creeks crested at all-time highs. The Office of Emergency Management reported that nearly 20,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in addition to thousands of businesses and other structures. One person was also killed by flooding in New Mexico. In this image, we see damage to Highway 34 along the Big Thompson River, on the road to Estes Park, Colorado. Image credit: Colorado National Guard.


Disaster 4. Category 1 Hurricane Ingrid weakened to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds before hitting Mexico about 200 miles south of the Texas border on September 16, 2013. Ingrid's heavy rains triggered flooding that killed 23 and did $1.5 billion in damage, making the storm the 7th costliest tropical cyclone in Mexican history. In this image, we see Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid laying siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.


Disaster 5. A series of killing freezes during the second half of September led to extensive agricultural damage in central Chile. A state of emergency was declared after farmers reported that frigid air had destroyed 61% of stoned fruit crops, 57% of almonds, 48% of kiwi crops, and 20% of table grapes. Heavy damage to vineyards also affected wine productivity. Total damage was estimated at $1.15 billion.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 18th month in row, September 2013 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2014, as do the large majority of the El Niño models. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive months for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of October 21, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest September extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during September was 6th lowest in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the largest September extent since 2009, and a nice change of pace from last year's all-time record retreat. The Arctic sea ice reached its minimum extent for the year on September 13, and has now begun re-freezing.

New "Tipping Points" episode, "Dangerous Rise of Oceans", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the second time on Saturday night, October 26, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "Dangerous Rise of Oceans", goes on an expedition from the Great Southern Ocean to the Great Barrier Reef and Tuvalu, to explore the changing currents and oceans that are driving extreme storms, sea surge and changing the landscape of many small South Pacific communities. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 2. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom visits the Heron Island Research Station on Australia's Great Barrier Reef during Saturday's new episode, "Dangerous Rise of Oceans."

I'll be back with a new blog post on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1496. skycycle:
Can anyone share more info on our European storm? Mostly track and strength forecasts, I'm curious for its potential impact here in the Netherlands - the local Met office issued a warning already for high winds tomorrow, including gusts up to 140 km/h!

Been windy and gloomy all day here, currently 10-15 km/h with gusts approaching 30... but it still so so far away, so I'm just curious what to expect :)






Quoting 1464. CybrTeddy:
WAY too far out for me to particularly care right now. First run and will probably be the only run it shows this system, and it's not even the same system -- FIM/CMC/NAVGEM are all in the western Caribbean approaching the GOMEX.
One of the FIMs had a double storm... one over Yucatan and the other where this GFS system is... albeit rather further north... wouldn't THAT be a gas...
KEEPEROFTHEGATE thanks for those, but I can only understand so much, as someone with a purely personal interest in weather :) Care to explain what to expect here in the Netherlands tomorrow?
Quoting 1480. Walshy:
Maybe climo will be on our side and it will shoot north-east without causing any damage.


That shooting NE is the last thing I want to see... takes it through the SE / Central Bahamas like Hurricanes Lili and Michelle.
Quoting 1503. skycycle:
KEEPEROFTHEGATE thanks for those, but I can only understand so much, as someone with a purely personal interest in weather :) Care to explain what to expect here in the Netherlands tomorrow?

its gonna rain be windy as well at times storm force for at least 24 too 36 hrs


next weekend we do it all again with another system

Quoting 1502. BahaHurican:
One of the FIMs had a double storm... one over Yucatan and the other where this GFS system is... albeit rather further north... wouldn't THAT be a gas...


That's one way to describe it.
Lowering pressures all over the Caribbean, one gets lose and heads up to the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Quoting 1488. ExumaMET:
Starting to get nervous about how these models are developing a pretty scary storm. Please weather Gods, no more storms. I'm just now beginning to fix the damage that hurricane's Irene and Sandy caused to my house.
I am SOOOO with you on this. I've pretty much stood down for hurricanes this season, and I really don't feel enthused about having to get into gear in mid-November. It seems these late season storms are always huge soakers, if nothing else...
Quoting 1503. skycycle:
KEEPEROFTHEGATE thanks for those, but I can only understand so much, as someone with a purely personal interest in weather :) Care to explain what to expect here in the Netherlands tomorrow?


in WUndergrounds Search Box toward the top of the page .. enter Netherlands .. a list of city's will come up .. clicking on any of them will bring up the forecast for that city .. hope this is helpful !!
Quoting 1508. BahaHurican:
I am SOOOO with you on this. I've pretty much stood down for hurricanes this season, and I really don't feel enthused about having to get into gear in mid-November. It seems this late season storms are always huge soakers, if nothing else...
and real cold after the event
Quoting 1504. BahaHurican:
That shooting NE is the last thing I want to see... takes it through the SE / Central Bahamas like Hurricanes Lili and Michelle.


ahhh... Lili, the freight train that almost no one remembers. Only time in my life that I've been scared during a storm. Vividly remember the suction sound of the roof been torn right out of the hurricane straps.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RAYMOND...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
WEEK WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Quoting 1511. ExumaMET:


ahhh... Lili, the freight train that almost no one remembers. Only time in my life that I've been scared during a storm. Vividly remember the suction sound of the roof been torn right out of the hurricane straps.
Yeah... that's what I'm worried about. I'm hoping to get through to the dry season so I can do some major upgrades to my roof that I wasn't expecting to have to deal with any time soon [thank you contractors].
Quoting 1511. ExumaMET:


ahhh... Lili, the freight train that almost no one remembers. Only time in my life that I've been scared during a storm. Vividly remember the suction sound of the roof been torn right out of the hurricane straps.
My grandmother in Long Island lost her roof and so did the 100 year old church in the settlement where she lives. She doesn't need to go through that again.
Quoting 1496. skycycle:
Can anyone share more info on our European storm? Mostly track and strength forecasts, I'm curious for its potential impact here in the Netherlands - the local Met office issued a warning already for high winds tomorrow, including gusts up to 140 km/h!

Been windy and gloomy all day here, currently 10-15 km/h with gusts approaching 30... but it still so so far away, so I'm just curious what to expect :)

The worst for The Netherlands should actually be within the next 12 hours or so as a vigorous shortwave rounds the main mid-level low, leading to some notable pressure falls with a surface trough/secondary low traversing the English Channel. This feature will create a sharp pressure gradient along the European mainland, which means there could be a period of storm force winds (with higher gusts possible) overnight and into tomorrow morning. It'll still be somewhat unsettled following the passage of this feature, but nothing out of the ordinary.





Feature as it appeared at 18Z:



With it being almost 00Z, there should probably be a new map in about an hour.
We've seen model setups like this way too many times this year. Wait until it gets inside 5-7 days to get interested. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, but I don't see a significant Caribbean storm as the most likely outcome 10-15 days from now. For now at least, the beat rolls on:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting 1497. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18z gfs hr 108




Thanks Keeper - looks like some of the punch is gone once this system reaches me here in Mobile HOWEVER I will be watching and keeping up with this..
1518. Pallis
Quoting 1467. wxgeek723:
Gosh guys see I TOLD YOU you have to wait until November for the Atlantic to really get going you guys should be more patient think of all those hurricane seasons that didn't get going until now.



Seriously though if anything like this comes to pass, it would be a remarkable achievement for the models.
"The theory of computation has traditionally been studied almost entirely in the abstract, as a topic in pure mathematics. This is to miss the point of it. Computers are physical objects, and computations are physical processes. What computers can or cannot compute is determined by the laws of physics alone, and not by pure mathematics."
Looks a bit stronger than earlier...90kt?

Quoting 1517. AllyBama:



Thanks Keeper - looks like some of the punch is gone once this system reaches me here in Mobile HOWEVER I will be watching and keeping up with this..
we will see how it evolves over the next couple of days spc is watchin iam sure
Quoting 1521. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we will see how it evolves over the next couple of days spc is watchin iam sure


What they have so far:
Raymond up to 90kts.

EP, 17, 2013102800, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1166W, 90, 972, HU
1524. SLU
Lots of panic on the blog tonight over a random "ghost" storm showing up in the Caribbean in early-November on the aggressive GFS more than 12 days out.

Quoting 1519. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks a bit stronger than earlier...90kt?



Quoting 1523. Tropicsweatherpr:
Raymond up to 90kts.

EP, 17, 2013102800, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1166W, 90, 972, HU


Oh, lookie, TA got something right!

:-]
Maybe we will get a setup like 2008 two storms in the Caribbean one in the western Carib and another in the Ecarib like Omar and td 16.
Quoting 1524. SLU:
Lots of panic on the blog tonight over a random "ghost" storm showing up in the Caribbean in early-November on the aggressive GFS more than 12 days out.

Panic? It seems more like euphoria that is born out of quiet desperation to me. "Hey guys, we might just get a big hurricane this year after all!"
Quoting 1524. SLU:
Lots of panic on the blog tonight over a random "ghost" storm showing up in the Caribbean in early-November on the aggressive GFS more than 12 days out.

To be honest I think we have more of a chance not getting a storm at all then a storm.


looks suppressed
Quoting 1527. FLWaterFront:
Panic? It seems more like euphoria that is born out of quiet desperation to me. "Hey guys, we might just get a big hurricane this year after all!"
No way.
Quoting 1515. 1900hurricane:

The worst for The Netherlands should actually be within the next 12 hours or so as a vigorous shortwave rounds the main mid-level low, leading to some notable pressure falls with a surface trough/secondary low traversing the English Channel. This feature will create a sharp pressure gradient along the European mainland, which means there could be a period of storm force winds (with higher gusts possible) overnight and into tomorrow morning. It'll still be somewhat unsettled following the passage of this feature, but nothing out of the ordinary.





Feature as it appeared at 18Z:



With it being almost 00Z, there should probably be a new map in about an hour.


Very nice post!

The media has everyone in the UK really worked up about this storm. A friend just emailed me saying her mom said she read in a paper (dunno which one) that it were forecast to have a tornado in Manchester! Ok could get one anywhere....but obvs can't forecast A tornado a day in advance LOL And TBH, it's not really anything worse than a number of winter storms we get anyway, especially up north. I mean, good to try and make sure people are alerted, but there seems to be a lot of scaremongering and headline-grabbing going on. And it's been SO windy and rainy in North Wales the last few weeks, just seems more the same really!


Otherwise...go Raymond!!! Love a good re-intensification!!
1532. SLU
Quoting 1527. FLWaterFront:
Panic? It seems more like euphoria that is born out of quiet desperation to me. "Hey guys, we might just get a big hurricane this year after all!"


Quoting 1528. washingtonian115:
To be honest I think we have more of a chance not getting a storm at all then a storm.


I think we're all suffering from the "2013 bust syndrome"
Quoting 1524. SLU:
Lots of panic on the blog tonight over a random "ghost" storm showing up in the Caribbean in early-November on the aggressive GFS more than 12 days out.

I'd say less panic, more glee...
;o)
61mph gust recorded in the south west.

Link

Wouldn't be surprised if gusts of up to 100mph were recorded in some places by the time the storm gets into full swing.
1535. bappit
Quoting 1518. Pallis:
"The theory of computation has traditionally been studied almost entirely in the abstract, as a topic in pure mathematics. This is to miss the point of it. Computers are physical objects, and computations are physical processes. What computers can or cannot compute is determined by the laws of physics alone, and not by pure mathematics."

LOL

I like Satchel Paige better: "Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you."
Quoting 1526. allancalderini:
Maybe we will get a setup like 2008 two storms in the Caribbean one in the western Carib and another in the Ecarib like Omar and td 16.
But 2008 up at that point had 6 hurricanes with 3 of them majors.Something that's been very rare this year.It'll be remarkable if we add another hurricane to the list let alone a major.Something tells me it won't be more than a weak struggling insignificant storm.
Quoting 1536. washingtonian115:
But 2008 up at that point had 6 hurricanes with 3 of them majors.Something that's been very rare this year.It'll be remarkable if we add another hurricane to the list let alone a major.Something tells me it won't be more than a weak struggling insignificant storm.
And something tells me it is going to be the worst storm we have seen in awhile. I just don't like the prospects of a storm in the Caribbean in November in an inactive season where there is still energy that has not been tapped into at all this year.
Mona passage Hurricane in 372 hrs



incoming
Quoting 1539. sunlinepr:
Mona passage Hurricane in 372 hrs



That would be the very worse case scenario for us but thankfully is super long range and GFS has not been consistent by being all over the place on every run.
Pssst Atlantic..what happened to these?

GTstormChaserCaleb I wouldn't count on it knowing this year.But to each his own.
next up

Quoting 1541. Tropicsweatherpr:


That would be the very worse case scenario for us but thankfully is super long range and GFS has not been consistent by being all over the place on every run.


Most probably, when we check the next GFS run, it will be a Panama Canal passage Cane....;)

1545. Xandra
Quoting 1496. skycycle:

Can anyone share more info on our European storm? Mostly track and strength forecasts, I'm curious for its potential impact here in the Netherlands - the local Met office issued a warning already for high winds tomorrow, including gusts up to 140 km/h!

Been windy and gloomy all day here, currently 10-15 km/h with gusts approaching 30... but it still so so far away, so I'm just curious what to expect :)

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 28 Oct 2013 06:00 to Tue 29 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 27 Oct 2013 23:15
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

This system is still way out. It's a potential area of interest, but everyone should accentuate the word "potential" in that sentence.

When we see the GFS or ECMWF (or preferably both) come into agreement on it within the medium range, then we can get excited.

Until then it's just fantasy, really.
G'nite, all... I'll leave u guys to wx fantasyland while I go visit the "real" fantasy-land.... lol

Quoting 1524. SLU:
Lots of panic on the blog tonight over a random "ghost" storm showing up in the Caribbean in early-November on the aggressive GFS more than 12 days out.



Favorable mjo just moving into our basin..the Caribbean should be watched as some models suggest. In all the Atl is transitioning to a favorable intraseasonal state for convection.
Quoting 1546. KoritheMan:
This system is still way out. It's a potential area of interest, but everyone should accentuate the word "potential" in that sentence.

When we see the GFS or ECMWF (or preferably both) come into agreement on it within the medium range, then we can get excited.

Until then it's just fantasy, really.


Accentuate, verb: to give emphasis or prominence to.

Learn a new word everyday here at WUnderground. That's a higher rate than at school...

Good evening Kori.
Quoting 1547. BahaHurican:
G'nite, all... I'll leave u guys to wx fantasyland while I go visit the "real" fantasy-land.... lol



I should probably follow suit. However, I'm off for the next three days (and each week to boot, courtesy of the kindness of my assistant manager), and I intend to make it nearly a fourth by staying up late tonight as well. :)
Quoting 1549. Astrometeor:


Accentuate, verb: to give emphasis or prominence to.

Learn a new word everyday here at WUnderground. That's a higher rate than at school...

Good evening Kori.


I spent like four years debating theology over at another forum. You tend to incorporate a lot of terminology into your vernacular. :)

Good evening, btw.
1552. SLU
Quoting 1542. washingtonian115:
Pssst Atlantic..what happened to these?

GTstormChaserCaleb I wouldn't count on it knowing this year.But to each his own.


An endangered species.
A very energetic system is dropping into the NWUS.

Quoting 1544. sunlinepr:


Most probably, when we check the next GFS run, it will be a Panama Canal passage Cane....;)



Serious looking system on that model !
1555. SLU
Quoting 1548. hurricane23:


Favorable mjo just moving into our basin..the Caribbean should be watched as some models suggest. In all the Atl is transitioning to a favorable intraseasonal state for convection.


We may just need to tone down our expectations of anything big as this is still 2013.
NavGem No joke getting close to Panama

1557. Pallis
Quoting 1535. bappit:

LOL

I like Satchel Paige better: "Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you."
My truck has an oil spraying device that can lose any pursuer in a chase, just like James Bond, except it is the engine.
Quoting 1538. GTstormChaserCaleb:
And something tells me it is going to be the worst storm we have seen in awhile. I just don't like the prospects of a storm in the Caribbean in November in an inactive season where there is still energy that has not been tapped into at all this year.


Could materialize , the heat here is terrible , something has to come remove it, it's just how nature designed it, like it or not these monster hurricanes are just part the cycle, though to be honest I don't look forward to any of them causing damage or lives lost!
Quoting 1542. washingtonian115:
Pssst Atlantic..what happened to these?

GTstormChaserCaleb I wouldn't count on it knowing this year.But to each his own.

Uhm, what the heck is that thing??
Gem

What we can conclude is that all models are suddenly showing a big storm somewhere either in the Carib or GOM

Quoting 1525. Astrometeor:




Oh, lookie, TA got something right!

:-]

Not a surprise :o
Last update from me. A wind gust of 67mph was recorded along the south coast.

Link
Quoting 1559. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Uhm, what the heck is that thing??


Get out and go see a museum sometime TA, you'll find these things such as "Atlantic Major Hurricanes" and "cassette tapes". Amazing stuff.
1564. Pallis
Quoting 1553. 1900hurricane:
A very energetic system is dropping into the NWUS.

Looks like a low that is riding valleys straight south instead of crossing the Rockies. It is going pretty fast. Maybe it will end up in the agricultural valleys of Cal. before going east. That would take a burden off existing water supplies.
Quoting 1553. 1900hurricane:
A very energetic system is dropping into the NWUS.



Indeed. The models have been suggesting severe weather chances for portions of the south for the last several days. Likely to see some sort of initiation around the Oklahoma and/or Arklatex region in 5 - 7 days.
I hate when these stations randomly stop updating:





Trying to archive these on a frequent basis to assist in finding tropical waves during my personal Tropical Cyclone Reports.

Ugh.
So anyone seen what the NOGAPS has been showing lately? :P
Quoting 1566. KoritheMan:
I hate when these stations randomly stop updating:





Trying to archive these on a frequent basis to assist in finding tropical waves during my personal Tropical Cyclone Reports.

Ugh.
Looks like somebody didn't shave. :P
Quoting 1568. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like somebody didn't shave. :P


Uh... yeah...

o_O
“The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said while Ganjam receives on an average 111 mm rainfall in October, this time it received 740 mm rainfall during and after the tropical cyclone Phailin, causing flood situation in the district. Overall, the state received 277 per cent higher rainfall in October, the weather office data said.

Link
aspectre is that you I see liking comments?
Any models showing something 120 hours or less?
When you folks chase these storms , you need to follow what they cost .
Example A -
The Calgary floods were the most expensive event Canada history.
Quoting 1572. GeoffreyWPB:
Any models showing something 120 hours or less?


Don't get logical, Jeff. You don't want to crush their dreams... do you?
Quoting 1573. ColoradoBob1:
When you folks chase these storms , you need to follow what they cost .
Example A -
The Calgary floods were the most expensive event Canada history.


I actually agree. I've never been storm chasing before; made plans to for Isaac, but it kindly came to me instead.

But if I did, I'd keep up with the damage and the gravity of the situation in the affected areas.

Actually, wait. I do that anyway. :)
1576. beell
Quoting 1567. GTstormChaserCaleb:
So anyone seen what the NOGAPS has been showing lately? :P


The NOGAPS has not been showing anything since February.
;-)
Quoting 1570. ColoradoBob1:
%u201CThe Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said while Ganjam receives on an average 111 mm rainfall in October, this time it received 740 mm rainfall during and after the tropical cyclone Phailin, causing flood situation in the district. Overall, the state received 277 per cent higher rainfall in October, the weather office data said.

Link
As of August this year, Cherrapunjee, India has received a whopping 252.4 inches of rain. I wonder how far it is located from Ganjam?



Link
Quoting 1574. KoritheMan:


Don't get logical, Jeff. You don't want to crush their dreams... do you?


God... what a debby downer
Quoting 1578. VAbeachhurricanes:


God... what a debby downer


Wouldn't be me without it. :)
Quoting 1572. GeoffreyWPB:
Any models showing something 120 hours or less?


120hrs... On target....

Quoting 1574. KoritheMan:


Don't get logical, Jeff. You don't want to crush their dreams... do you?


Hurricane Sandy then and now.



Picture coutesy of cnn.com
As you all worship at the foot of Dr. Masters and climate change, global warming, or whatever it is called today, I would hope that each of you are aware that neither the good doctor or any other man in this world can explain this world's changes or why God does what he does. This world's climate has fluctuated constantly for millions of years so don't buy the kool-aid, the Jim Jones' of meteorology pours you. As each of you try and avoid the disasterous hurricane's that have certainly ramped up due to global warming, or not, don't forget who is truly in charge of this world.
Quoting 1583. TigerFanOrl:
As you all worship at the foot of Dr. Masters and climate change, global warming, or whatever it is called today, I would hope that each of you are aware that neither the good doctor or any other man in this world can explain this world's changes or why God does what he does. This world's climate has fluctuated constantly for millions of years so don't buy the kool-aid, the Jim Jones' of meteorology pours you. As each of you try and avoid the disasterous hurricane's that have certainly ramped up due to global warming, or not, don't forget who is truly in charge of this world.


XD
For those interested, the sun is in the midst of a still-growing X-Class flare, the first in several days...
Quoting 1583. TigerFanOrl:
As you all worship at the foot of Dr. Masters and climate change, global warming, or whatever it is called today, I would hope that each of you are aware that neither the good doctor or any other man in this world can explain this world's changes or why God does what he does. This world's climate has fluctuated constantly for millions of years so don't buy the kool-aid, the Jim Jones' of meteorology pours you. As each of you try and avoid the disasterous hurricane's that have certainly ramped up due to global warming, or not, don't forget who is truly in charge of this world.


It's been 3 minutes and Nea hasn't responded yet. He's getting slow in his old age:)
Quoting 1583. TigerFanOrl:
don't forget who is truly in charge of this world.


Being Curious....Who's is in charge?

Quoting 1583. TigerFanOrl:
As you all worship at the foot of Dr. Masters and climate change, global warming, or whatever it is called today, I would hope that each of you are aware that neither the good doctor or any other man in this world can explain this world's changes or why God does what he does. This world's climate has fluctuated constantly for millions of years so don't buy the kool-aid, the Jim Jones' of meteorology pours you. As each of you try and avoid the disasterous hurricane's that have certainly ramped up due to global warming, or not, don't forget who is truly in charge of this world.
People are certainly free to believe what they wish, but I'll personally put a knowledgeable scientist up against an imaginary deity any time.
00Z updated surface analysis for Europe. The surface trough rounding the main low is entering the English Channel now. Surface winds should noticeably pick up with the sharpening of gradient as the trough passes through the Channel.

So what's the gist with the models showing a possible storm in the caribbean in a week?
1592. GatorWX
Quoting 1582. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hurricane Sandy then and now.



Picture coutesy of cnn.com


Going there next week! No matter what anyone says, I think that one surprised them a lot. The mayor and the the govt knew, but I think most of the people had no idea the type of storm they were dealing with, NY and NJ. They are lucky the storm lost all tropical characteristics prior to approaching the coast. Imagine a full fledged hurricane hitting NYC with that pressure.
Quoting 1589. Neapolitan:
People are certainly free to believe what they wish, but I'll put a knowledgeable scientist up against any imaginary deity any time.


See my post #1587. It took you 6 minutes to respond. You are slowing down...
Ugh...
Quoting 1583. TigerFanOrl:
As you all worship at the foot of Dr. Masters and climate change, global warming, or whatever it is called today, I would hope that each of you are aware that neither the good doctor or any other man in this world can explain this world's changes or why God does what he does. This world's climate has fluctuated constantly for millions of years so don't buy the kool-aid, the Jim Jones' of meteorology pours you. As each of you try and avoid the disasterous hurricane's that have certainly ramped up due to global warming, or not, don't forget who is truly in charge of this world.

God does things through physics --at least so far. Physics says that we are warming the Earth through the CO2 produced by the burning of fossil fuels (and other activities).

But please let me know the moment God changes the rules. I promise that I'll be most interested. Until that time, though...well, your post has no value. Sorry to be blunt.
Quoting 1583. TigerFanOrl:
As you all worship at the foot of Dr. Masters and climate change, global warming, or whatever it is called today, I would hope that each of you are aware that neither the good doctor or any other man in this world can explain this world's changes or why God does what he does. This world's climate has fluctuated constantly for millions of years so don't buy the kool-aid, the Jim Jones' of meteorology pours you. As each of you try and avoid the disasterous hurricane's that have certainly ramped up due to global warming, or not, don't forget who is truly in charge of this world.


Amen
Quoting 1583. TigerFanOrl:
As you all worship at the foot of Dr. Masters and climate change, global warming, or whatever it is called today, I would hope that each of you are aware that neither the good doctor or any other man in this world can explain this world's changes or why God does what he does. This world's climate has fluctuated constantly for millions of years so don't buy the kool-aid, the Jim Jones' of meteorology pours you. As each of you try and avoid the disasterous hurricane's that have certainly ramped up due to global warming, or not, don't forget who is truly in charge of this world.


I'm very serious when I tell you, thanks for the laugh. This is one of the funniest comments I have read on wunderground. Thank you, sir, and may God Bless you for giving me a great laugh. *Hugs and Kisses*
1598. beell
Quoting 1590. 1900hurricane:
00Z updated surface analysis for Europe. The surface trough rounding the main low is entering the English Channel now. Surface winds should noticeably pick up with the sharpening of gradient as the trough passes through the Channel.



May not be as strong as some of the earlier forecasts.
Can't find much over 50 knots in the Channel. But as your map indicates, the tightest gradient may be over land-along the northern coast of France.

And another surface map link with 500mb heights overlaid-courtesy of barbamz.

Link

Quoting 1588. sunlinepr:


Being Curious....Who's is in charge?


I'm in charge. Remember the weather always does the opposite of my wish casts.
1600. Relix
Quoting 1539. sunlinepr:
Mona passage Hurricane in 372 hrs


wow what the heck where does this come from? o.0.

Its nearly 3 weeks out, so its definitely not happening, but some hints there for a November system.
Quoting 1599. GrandCaymanMed:

I'm in charge. Remember the weather always does the opposite of my wish casts.


Wrong, very wrong...

Models have proven to be in charge...

in charge of us that spend so many hours looking at them
1602. Dakster
Quoting 1580. sunlinepr:


120hrs... On target....



What about Wal-Mart?
1603. Pallis
Quoting 1551. KoritheMan:


I spent like four years debating theology over at another forum. You tend to incorporate a lot of terminology into your vernacular. :)

Good evening, btw.
I should probably take time to give thanks too. When you were bickering with Patrap the other day, I felt that you were constants, always swirling , swirling, with words flying. It gave me a warm fuzzy feeling like bacon wrapped venison backstrap, conch chowder, beer battered cajon shrimp, with homemade tater salad made with Duke's mayo and boar's head deli mustard. I love a good argument. I really appreciate everyone's input, even if it seems like I don't. That is just my personality.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

...RAYMOND LIKELY NEAR PEAK STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE TURNING NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 116.8W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE THAT RAYMOND UNDERWENT DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS PROBABLY ENDED. THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...CONSISTING OF A NEARLY
CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A CLOUD-OBSCURED EYE. HOWEVER A
SHARP EDGE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
IS SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE DVORAK
T-NUMBER FROM TAFB AT 0000 UTC WAS 5.0...AND ADT VALUES HAVE
RECENTLY LEVELED OFF AROUND THAT VALUE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT.

RAYMOND IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING SHARPLY POLEWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/08. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
LATTER FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN
36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE IT WEAKENS...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE FAIRLY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE FORWARD MOTION COULD SLOW
TO A CRAWL AFTER 48 HOURS...AND INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKES CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST LOW. THE ONLY
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
RIGHT...TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS...ALONG WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE PERSISTENCE AND
STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RAPID DECOUPLING OF
THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A VERY QUICK
DEMISE AFTER THAT TIME...WITH RAYMOND LIKELY DEGENERATING INTO A
REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR PERHAPS SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 15.3N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 16.1N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 17.1N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 17.8N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 18.3N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Kori what was your stance in the theological debate?
Quoting 1603. Pallis:
I should probably take time to give thanks too. When you were bickering with Patrap the other day, I felt that you were constants, always swirling , swirling, with words flying. It gave me a warm fuzzy feeling like bacon wrapped venison backstrap, conch chowder, beer battered cajon shrimp, with homemade tater salad made with Duke's mayo and boar's head deli mustard. I love a good argument. I really appreciate everyone's input, even if it seems like I don't. That is just my personality.


Can that be on the menu tomorrow?
1609. Pallis
Quoting 1601. sunlinepr:


Wrong, very wrong...

Models have proven to be in charge...

in charge of us that spend so many hours looking at them
102hrs hurricane on GOM
new run
102 hrs hurricane disappeared
new run
102 hrs hurricane in panhandle
new run
"due to government closeaout runs will be limited to 0 hrs"
....
....
...
Shush now. You are starting to sound like a conspiracy theorist. Just because the Federal government has the ability to watch you pick at boogers in your back yard from near space does not mean they can do anything right, or morally right. OK, you're probably right, it is a set up for the insurance industry. I am naming the next storm Bandy if it hits Florida. When I can not get information here, I turn to other countries with pretty good results. It also helps to know people in a lot of states.
Quoting 1583. TigerFanOrl:
As you all worship at the foot of Dr. Masters and climate change, global warming, or whatever it is called today, I would hope that each of you are aware that neither the good doctor or any other man in this world can explain this world's changes or why God does what he does. This world's climate has fluctuated constantly for millions of years so don't buy the kool-aid, the Jim Jones' of meteorology pours you. As each of you try and avoid the disasterous hurricane's that have certainly ramped up due to global warming, or not, don't forget who is truly in charge of this world.


As a Christian, I tend to take the more deist route of the religion, and that is that God created this world and its Physics laws and then left Earth to us to use and to be good caretakers. Clearly we are failing. And so I wholeheartedly disagree with your post. Sorry.

On-topic: I was really hoping that Raymond would be able to scratch and claw the rest of the way back up to Cat. 3. Would've been an epic comeback, almost as good as Nadine.
I don't know, but looks like we are going to get really wet...

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1601. sunlinepr:


Wrong, very wrong...

Models have proven to be in charge...

in charge of us that spend so many hours looking at them


I am a model for the beer belly pageant. You just said models are in charge. By transitive property, I'm in charge.
Quoting 1609. Pallis:
Shush now. You are starting to look like a conspiracy theorist. Just because the Federal government has the ability to watch you pick at boogers in your back yard does not mean they can do anything right, or morally right. OK you're probably right, it is a set up for the insurance industry. I am naming the next storm Bandy if it hits Florida.

Pallis, there is not much substance in my comment... I was joking, due to my experience about who is in charge here, for me..... the time i spent in my constant analysis of different models during this season... has deceptioned me... finding that each run has a different scenario...
1615. beell

02Z Surface
(click for full image)
The methodology used to calculate monthly temperature anomalies such as the one mentioned here is extremely flawed.

The data sets (temperature station readings) that report the current monthly average for NODC differ vastly in regional location, distribution and quantity from the data sets NODC uses for the historical averages that it is compared against to derive the anomaly.

This is further complicated by the varying length of data gathering for each NODC temperature stations used to produce the historical average.

Lastly, they take each reporting station, although they are not evenly distributed across the globe, and mathematically average them together with equal weight to calculate their monthly averages.

You cant take data from one source and use it to compare to a vastly different source of data and call the anomaly even close to accurate, true or correct.

In the figure below you can easily see the distribution and age range of where they get their data. Notice how many of the historical stations are no longer actively reporting in areas where there are no currently actively reporting stations to take their palace. Notice their clustered, uneven distribution and wide range of lifespan.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thu mb/a/ab/GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png/800px-GHCN_T emperature_Stations.png
1617. hydrus
Quoting 1591. TheGreatHodag:
So what's the gist with the models showing a possible storm in the caribbean in a week?
Mornin Dag I was waiting to see what the latest GFS. There is still the potential for a significant system.