WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Earth has its Warmest November in Recorded History

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:49 PM GMT on December 17, 2013

November 2013 was the globe's warmest November since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. The year-to-date period of January - November has been the 4th warmest such period on record. November 2013 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record. November 2013 was the 345th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in November 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 16th or 9th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Northern Hemisphere November snow cover was the 16th greatest in the 48-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of November 2013 in his November 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2013, the warmest November for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Most of the world's land areas experienced warmer-than-average monthly temperatures, including much of Eurasia, coastal Africa, Central America, and central South America. Much of southern Russia, north west Kazakhstan, south India, and southern Madagascar were record warm. Meanwhile, northern Australia, parts of North America, and southwest Greenland were cooler than average. No regions of the globe were record cold. According to Roshydromet, Russia observed its warmest November since national records began in 1891. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

The four billion-dollar weather disasters of November 2013
Four new billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during November 2013: Super Typhoon Haiyan ($5.8 billion), the November 17 tornado outbreak in the U.S. ($1.7 billion), flooding in Cambodia ($1 billion, the costliest disaster in Cambodian history), and the ongoing U.S. drought, which has been in progress all year, but with damages listed for the first time this year ($2.5 billion.) These four disasters bring the world-wide tally of billion-dollar weather disasters so far this year to 39, according to the November 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This is the second highest yearly total of billion-dollar weather disasters for the globe since accurate disaster records began in 2000. However, the total cost of weather-related disasters so far in 2013 is below the average for the past ten years, according to Senior Scientist Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield. The record highest number of billion-dollar weather disasters was 40, set in 2010. For comparison, during all of 2012, there were 27 billion-dollar weather disasters. The U.S. total through November 2013 is nine.


Disaster 1. Super Typhoon Haiyan hit the Central Philippines on November 8, 2013, as one of the strongest tropical cyclones in world history, with peak surface winds estimated at 195 mph by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Haiyan killed over 6,000 people and did at least $5.8 billion in damage, making it the costliest and 1st or 2nd deadliest disaster in Philippine history. In this image, we see a Filipino boy carrying bottled water amongst the damaged houses where a ship was washed ashore in Tacloban city, Leyte province, central Philippines on Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)


Disaster 2. The most expensive November tornado outbreak hit the U.S. on November 17, causing damage estimated at $1.6 billion. This image shows a view of part of Washington, Illinois from Mackenzie Street on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2013, after an EF-4 tornado tore through the area, one of three EF-4 tornadoes from the outbreak. (AP Photo/Alex Kareotes)


Disaster 3. Heavy monsoon rains caused the Mekong River in Cambodia to overflow its banks in October and November 2013, causing $1 billion in damage. According to the International Disaster Database, EM-DAT, this would make the disaster Cambodia's most expensive and 6th deadliest natural disaster in its history. In this photo, we see Cambodian children swimming in flood waters at a village in Kandal province on October 7, 2013. Photo credit: TANG CHHIN SOTHY/AFP/Getty Images)


Disaster 4. The on-going U.S. drought has cost at least $2.5 billion so far in 2013. In this image, we see that Lake Mead water levels from 1938 - 2013 in July have shown a precipitous drop since drought conditions gripped the Western U.S. in 2000. The Lake Mead photo was taken by wunderphotographer LAjoneson June 29, 2007, when the lake had a "bathtub ring" 109' tall. Water level data from The Bureau of Reclamation is overlaid.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 19th month in row, November 2013 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. The December 5 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center notes that "While current forecast probabilities are still greatest for ENSO-neutral by mid-summer, there is an increasing chance for the development of El Niño. None of the El Niño models predict La Niña conditions by the summer of 2014, and 7 of 16 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive months for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.0°C from average as of December 16, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest November extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during November was 6th lowest in the 35-year satellite record, and had the largest November extent since 2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Have you committed Astro?
Quoting 1001. wxgeek723:
Have you committed Astro?


To a college? Nope. I have plenty of time and still more college applications to work through. Common App is a pain.
1003. bappit
Not sure if this has been posted. Interesting video of supercell simulation.

http://www.livescience.com/42074-teamwise-vortici ty-in-a-supercell-thunderstorm-simulation.html

Edit: have to put up with an advertisement before the feature presentation begins.
Anyone want to be a supervisory meteorologist in Cheyenne?

So I periodically scan through NOAA's job openings...this one is a good one, although you would already have to be working for the federal government. 100K sounds like a good paycheck to me. But Cheyenne, WY. Kind of a lonely place out there.

Edit: Okay, now I'm out.
Edit2: bappit, will check tomorrow, thanks for the link.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AMARA (02-20132014)
10:30 AM RET December 19 2013
============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Amara (950 hPa) located at 17.2S 68.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
45 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 65 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
========================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/6.0/W1.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 17.6S 66.7E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS 18.1S 65.0E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS 19.5S 63.3E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 20.2S 64.1E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale

Additional Information
==========================
Last animated infrared imagery display the cloud pattern warming during the past six hours. Last micro-wave pictures (SSMIS 0316z and TRMM 0442z) suggest an enlargement of the eye. The mentioned Dvorak number is an average over the last 6 hours.

Up to Friday, Amara may keep on moving generally west southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures existing southeast. From Saturday, a high to mid-level trough is expected to move eastwards in the south of the system, as the subtropical ridge is expected to weaken by that time. So a significant slow down should occur with a southward then southeastward curvature.

Amara is expected to weaken rapidly on and after Saturday or Sunday as it shifts southwards in relationship with the increasing northwesterly wind shear ahead of the mentioned trough. On Monday, the remnants of the likely weak system should be back on the steering influence of the low/mid levels subtropical high pressures.

The ECMWF ensemble output (1200z run) spread remains broad, meaning that the previsibility both in track and intensity is low.
Quoting 1004. Astrometeor:
Anyone want to be a supervisory meteorologist in Cheyenne?

So I periodically scan through NOAA's job openings...this one is a good one, although you would already have to be working for the federal government. 100K sounds like a good paycheck to me. But Cheyenne, WY. Kind of a lonely place out there.

Edit: Okay, now I'm out.
Edit2: bappit, will check tomorrow, thanks for the link.
Cheyenne is not so bad, especially if you don't mind dating people in the cattle business. Plus it's only a couple hours [well, more like 90 minutes] down the freeway to Denver if you really get bored. That's like from Greensboro to Charlotte, NC. I know somebody who made that commute 5 days a week for over 3 years.

There are lonelier postings in the NOAA's cadre... lol
Quoting 1005. HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AMARA (02-20132014)
10:30 AM RET December 19 2013
============================================
Last animated infrared imagery display the cloud pattern warming during the past six hours. Last micro-wave pictures (SSMIS 0316z and TRMM 0442z) suggest an enlargement of the eye. The mentioned Dvorak number is an average over the last 6 hours.

Up to Friday, Amara may keep on moving generally west southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures existing southeast. From Saturday, a high to mid-level trough is expected to move eastwards in the south of the system, as the subtropical ridge is expected to weaken by that time. So a significant slow down should occur with a southward then southeastward curvature.

Amara is expected to weaken rapidly on and after Saturday or Sunday as it shifts southwards in relationship with the increasing northwesterly wind shear ahead of the mentioned trough. On Monday, the remnants of the likely weak system should be back on the steering influence of the low/mid levels subtropical high pressures.

The ECMWF ensemble output (1200z run) spread remains broad, meaning that the previsibility both in track and intensity is low.

So it seems they r expecting it to turn south before reaching Mauritius ... but close enough to Rodrigues to to bring some TS conditions there, from what I can tell.
1008. barbamz

Last night in Ayrshire/Scotland.

1009. LargoFl
Good Morning...................
Guten morgen, Barba...
Morning, Largo.

Is it still cool there?
1012. LargoFl
Supposedly its going to warm up later today here...
1013. LargoFl
Quoting 1011. BahaHurican:
Morning, Largo.

Is it still cool there?
good morning,yes cool but not too bad this morning..a big warm up is coming might be record breaking temps this weekend..
Quoting 1008. barbamz:

Last night in Ayrshire/Scotland.

Wow. That's some pretty dramatic wave action. I wouldn't want my car to have beeen parked in that area last night.....
1015. LargoFl
we should be watching TEXAS saturday huh..................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS
WEAKEN WITH HIGHER MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. FOG MAY BE ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST LIMIT VISIBILITY BUT MAY NOT BE DENSE FOG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MARINE AREAS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN THE BAYS. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SEA FOG LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OFF THE GULF. VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED WHERE
SEA FOG FORMS. SEA FOG MAY REMAIN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE MIDWEST. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT COULD ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
AREAS NORTH OF HOUSTON AND INTERSTATE 10 NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
WITH HAIL AND BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES AS SECONDARY THREATS. SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE WEAKER DUE TO THE
WARM AIR ALOFT NOT ERODING AS MUCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY.

$$
1016. LargoFl
my bad weather day will be Tuesday it looks like...
Quoting 1013. LargoFl:
good morning,yes cool but not too bad this morning..a big warm up is coming might be record breaking temps this weekend..
It's relatively cool out right now. Airport is reporting 72, but it might be a low as 70 here [though I haven't checked with instrument or anything]. This has been the weirdest cold front. The daytime temps are staying below 80, but it's not getting much lower than that at night. Very little diurnal change, at a time when we usually have 12 - degree swings.

I'm going to be interested to see what eventuates in TX... there's been a lot of talk here about potential severe wx impacts this weekend.
1018. LargoFl
Rita etc..stay alert Saturday..................
1019. LargoFl
Quoting 1017. BahaHurican:
It's relativelyy cool out right now. Airport is reporting 72, but it might be a low as 70 here [though I haven't checked with instrument or anything]. This has been the weirdest cold front. The daytime temps are staying below 80, but it's not getting much lower than that at night. Very little diurnal change, at a time when we usually have 12 - degree swings.

I'm going to be interested to see what eventuates in TX... there's been a lot of talk here about potential severe wx impacts this weekend.
yes im sure the folks will be following this in the coming days..
1020. hydrus
Quoting 1018. LargoFl:
Rita etc..stay alert Saturday..................
The latest GFS has toned this system down a bit, but may flop yet again.
1021. hydrus
Quoting 1020. hydrus:
The latest GFS has toned this system down a bit, but may flop yet again.


they are forecasting wet snow freezing rain for us on sunday now

this run seems weaker with the system precip wise anyway

and it tracks right over my head yesterday it was to my west the day before that too my east so there is some flipping going on with the models

maybe the 12 z runs will be a better handle on it maybe not even till Friday will it nail it down

City of Toronto
4:45 AM EST Thursday 19 December 2013
Special weather statement for
City of Toronto continued

Significant winter weather expected Friday and into this weekend. Potential ice storm for some areas Saturday night into Sunday.

Several disturbances originating in Texas are expected to move towards the Lower Great Lakes starting Friday. A storm track will set up from the midwest U.S. east to Southern Quebec. The first system is expected to ride along this track on Friday and precipitation with this system is expected to spread into Southwestern Ontario this evening and through the remainder of Southern Ontario by Friday morning. The exact location of this storm track will determine whether the precipitation falls as rain, freezing rain, ice pellets, or snow.

The most recent assessment suggests that areas north of a line from Kincardine to Barrie to Ottawa are likely to see mainly snow with total snow amounts near 10 centimetres possible tonight into Friday. South of this line, little snowfall is expected with precipitation more likely to be in the form of rain, freezing rain or ice pellets.

The precipitation may become more intermittent on Saturday before another more potent storm approaches Southern Ontario Saturday evening into Sunday. This next storm system is expected to tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. There is a risk that this could be a major ice storm for an appreciable swath of Southern Ontario.

Considerable uncertainty exists regarding which locations will be most severely impacted, but it appears that areas along the highway 401 corridor have the greatest likelihood for significant freezing rain amounts. There is a risk for widespread power outages due to fallen tree limbs and power lines. For areas farther north, there is also the possibility for significant snowfall and ice pellets from Lake Huron eastward to the Quebec border.

There is still uncertainty surrounding the exact position of the storm track. Any change in the storm track's position will affect precipitation amounts and type. However, it is very likely that holiday travel will be significantly impacted. We recommend watching future forecasts and taking the necessary precautions. Environment Canada will continue to monitor this developing situation and will issue warnings as necessary.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 50 degrees with a wind chill of 47. What a nice change from the thirties of the past two weeks.

Chocolate chip cookies in the oven for my kids at school. It's party day in my room since they'll be having their party day in their regular ed room tomorrow. Feel free to grab one with breakfast as I'm make double the amount I really need.

Breakfast's on the table: cheesy grits and shrimp, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, bagels with cream cheese and strawberry jelly or lox, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Morning, Largo. Yeah, I'm not happy with Saturday's forecast. I'm under the gun in my part of Louisiana with this 50% chance of tornados, I'm only twelve miles from the Texas border. But my son's driving home on leave and I hate to have him driving into it on his way.
Quoting 1024. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 50 degrees with a wind chill of 47. What a nice change from the thirties of the past two weeks.

Chocolate chip cookies in the oven for my kids at school. It's party day in my room since they'll be having their party day in their regular ed room tomorrow. Feel free to grab one with breakfast as I'm make double the amount I really need.

Breakfast's on the table: cheesy grits and shrimp, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, bagels with cream cheese and strawberry jelly or lox, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
morning my misses is here doing same thing for our sons party today not cookies but chicken spring rolls and its the last day now for him till jan6
1027. hydrus
Quoting 1022. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


they are forecasting wet snow freezing rain for us on sunday now

this run seems weaker with the system precip wise anyway

and it tracks right over my head yesterday it was to my west the day before that too my east so there is some flipping going on with the models

maybe the 12 z runs will be a better handle on it maybe not even till Friday will it nail it down

This usually means wind damage for us on the plateau
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT...UNUSUALLY HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS WITH PWATS NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR STRONGLY SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TOTAL RAINFALL
OVER THE ENTIRE WEEKEND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES STILL APPEARS REASONABLE
PER WPC/GFS/ECMWF QPF...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST ZONES.
ALSO OF NOTE...LLJ INCREASING TO 70 TO 80 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE.

STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE MID STATE TO THE EAST FROM SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AND
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

SHAMBURGER
1028. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE MIDWEST. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT COULD ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
AREAS NORTH OF HOUSTON AND INTERSTATE 10 NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
WITH HAIL AND BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES AS SECONDARY THREATS. SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE WEAKER DUE TO THE
WARM AIR ALOFT NOT ERODING AS MUCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY.

1029. LargoFl
going to be an interesting weekend it seems..
1030. LargoFl
1031. LargoFl
Flood Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 AM CST THU DEC 19 2013

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. STRONG LIFT
COMBINED WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
AROUND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A SALEM TO BULL SHOALS
LAKE LINE. GIVEN THE RECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS THE REGION...SOILS
ARE ALREADY SATURATED. ABUNDANT RUNOFF IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED
AND MAY RESULT IN FLOODING.

MOZ058-070-071-081>083-090>092-095>098-101>106-19 2200-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FA.A.0004.131221T0000Z-131222T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MARIES-PULASKI-PHELPS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-GREENE-W EBSTER-WRIGHT-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-S TONE-TANEY-OZARK-
OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIENNA...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL. ..SALEM...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...
EMINENCE...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVI LLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
328 AM CST THU DEC 19 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...MARIES...PHELPS AND PULASKI. IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...DENT...HOWELL...OREGON...SHANNON AND
TEXAS. IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...BARRY...CHRISTIAN...DOUGLAS...
GREENE...LACLEDE...MCDONALD...OZARK...STONE...TANE Y...WEBSTER
AND WRIGHT.

* FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSOURI OZARKS...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A VIENNA TO
SPRINGFIELD TO ANDERSON LINE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A SALEM TO BULL SHOALS LAKE
LINE.

* LOW LYING AREAS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING LATE THIS
WEEK. FLOODING OF MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MOST
FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR OR TRUCK
THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE INSTEAD.
REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

NAM 06Z SIM RAD

1033. LargoFl
ok so the cold front gets to me mon night tues morning..
1034. LargoFl
Quoting 1033. LargoFl:
ok so the cold front gets to me mon night tues morning..


risk area is nc sc ga then as per this run anyway

1036. LargoFl
ok so sat ahead of ther cold front..alot of warmer gulf moisture gets sucked northward
1038. LargoFl
1039. Torito
Bruce.

1040. Torito
4 tropical systems at once in 180 hours.

From the Miami NWS Disco...

AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TRIES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE.
MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE TIMING IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THEY PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AT 00Z. LOOKING ALOFT, THE RIDGE IS HOLDING
STRONG AT 500 MB, WITH 588DM HEIGHTS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
591DM OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AND
CAUSE IT TO STALL SOMETIME TUESDAY. MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE
WITH HOW FAST IT MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WHEN IT STALLS. THE
ECMWF HAS IT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OR THE FAR SOUTH PORTION OF THE
MAINLAND TUESDAY AT 18Z. THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH IT, BUT
PUSHES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS AROUND 06Z
WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS ARE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THEY SHOW MOST OF IT STAYS OFFSHORE. THIS
SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE CASE A FEW TIMES OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS.
GIVEN THIS AND THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY, HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW.

For West Palm Beach...

1042. JRRP
Quoting 1040. Torito:
4 tropical systems at once in 180 hours.

NOTE:Sees GEM=CMC in deguise.No wonder.But I must say every other basin has been interesting besides the Atlantic this year.
yes!
go squall line

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BEST INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME WITH STRONG 850 MB WIND
OF 50 TO 60KT AND CAPE VALUES FORECAST AROUND 500 J/KG, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL SEEM REASONABLE MAINLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Orlando
Quoting 1035. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


risk area is nc sc ga then as per this run anyway




That's not severe weather just heavy rain as all the dynamics will have moved well north by Monday.

Quoting 1041. GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TRIES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE.
MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE TIMING IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THEY PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AT 00Z. LOOKING ALOFT, THE RIDGE IS HOLDING
STRONG AT 500 MB, WITH 588DM HEIGHTS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
591DM OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AND
CAUSE IT TO STALL SOMETIME TUESDAY. MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE
WITH HOW FAST IT MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WHEN IT STALLS. THE
ECMWF HAS IT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OR THE FAR SOUTH PORTION OF THE
MAINLAND TUESDAY AT 18Z. THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH IT, BUT
PUSHES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS AROUND 06Z
WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS ARE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THEY SHOW MOST OF IT STAYS OFFSHORE. THIS
SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE CASE A FEW TIMES OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS.
GIVEN THIS AND THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY, HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW.

For West Palm Beach...



79 on Christmas. I hope Santa's driving a Jet Ski.
Quoting 1049. StormTrackerScott:



That's not severe weather just heavy rain as all the dynamics will have moved well north by Monday.



iam sure there will be some thunder nothing serious

fla gets nothing but sporadic showers and a wind shift a no hype forecast there


lol

Reminds me of this past hurricane season. Dry air everywhere
1053. VR46L
The storm that brought 69 KTS winds yesterday has moved off to the North

The beginnings of what could possibly be Winter Storm Alex, the first storm named with the FV system.






-----Possible Alex as it moves northeast from Texas---



Quoting 1051. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


iam sure there will be some thunder nothing serious

fla gets nothing but sporadic showers and a wind shift a no hype forecast there


lol



My rain bucket down here in Ft. Myers will be lucky to see a few sprinkles.
Quoting 1053. VR46L:
The storm that brought 69 KTS winds yesterday has moved off to the North

another one on the way

Quoting 1055. Sfloridacat5:


My rain bucket down here in Ft. Myers will be lucky to see a few sprinkles.
yeah not much at all

total precip out to hr 144

1058. NCstu
for lack of a better topic, anyone want to discuss the Maunder Minimum? If all the sunspots go away will we have another little ice age? Will CO2 emissions make it better or worse?
1059. LargoFl
Quoting 1055. Sfloridacat5:


My rain bucket down here in Ft. Myers will be lucky to see a few sprinkles.
yes our dry season continues..
1060. LargoFl
Quoting 1057. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah not much at all

total precip out to hr 144



What's really weird is when the weather comes down from the N.W. (usually associated with a front), the rain showers break up just as they get to the area.
It happens at least 90% of the time.

My Vantage Pro has only received .44" in 7 weeks.
Quoting 1060. LargoFl:


Yep, all the record snowfall is melting. By Christmas day, only a relatively small area of the country will be having a white Christmas.
1063. LargoFl
Quoting 1058. NCstu:
for lack of a better topic, anyone want to discuss the Maunder Minimum? If all the sunspots go away will we have another little ice age? Will CO2 emissions make it better or worse?
well.....PhysOrg.com) -- Sunspot formation is triggered by a magnetic field, which scientists say is steadily declining. They predict that by 2016 there may be no remaining sunspots, and the sun may stay spotless for several decades. The last time the sunspots disappeared altogether was in the 17th and 18th century, and coincided with a lengthy cool period on the planet known as the Little Ice Age

Read more at: http://phys.org/news203746768.html#jCp
1064. VR46L
Quoting 1056. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
another one on the way



Yeah I think its a series, one after the other probably before January before it calms down , The hills were white this morning too !
Quoting 1064. VR46L:


Yeah I think its a series, one after the other probably before January before it calms down , The hills were white this morning too !


How did you fare yesterday? I was worried about you.

Quoting 1058. NCstu:
for lack of a better topic, anyone want to discuss the Maunder Minimum? If all the sunspots go away will we have another little ice age? Will CO2 emissions make it better or worse?


#1. No

#2. CO2 concentrations are sufficent to override both low solar intensity and orbital forcing for tens of thousands of years.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS FAIRLY ROBUST WITH ANYWHERE
FROM 400-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE WITH A WEAK INVERSION. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN WELL
MIXED WITH SURFACE WINDS HOWLING MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THESE NUMBERS MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.


THE KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. LOW LEVEL
O-1 SRH IS AROUND 350 M2/S2 WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 60-70 KTS FROM THE SSW.
EXPECT THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT
EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME BREAKS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE WITH 850 MB WINDS IN THE
60-70 KT RANGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
LEVEL JET DOES WEAKEN SOME AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AND THE
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE...THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE TIMING WILL BE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO NOON ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE LATEST NAM IS ABOUT A DAY BEHIND THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WINDS OF OVER 50 KTS WILL BE JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND WILL
EASILY BE TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE GROUND. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ROTATING UPDRAFTS LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.
Worried that the temperatures might rise a few degrees, but no one seems to care that North Korea is becoming a Nuclear Power.

On February 11, 2013, the USGS detected a magnitude 5.1 seismic disturbance,[13] reported to be a third underground nuclear test.[14] North Korea has officially reported it as a successful nuclear test with a lighter warhead that delivers more force than before, but has not revealed the exact yield.
1069. VR46L
Quoting 1065. StormTrackerScott:


How did you fare yesterday? I was worried about you.



Oh Grand , Thanks , Didnt lose even a slate :)

very windy , winter has definately arrived here !
This is all very interesting but you should spend more time working on your forecast model for wunderground.

Y'all's forecast missed again the predicted low temperature. You said 34F and it hit 30F. I may have citrus damage because of the poor forecasting.

This is the second badly missed forecast this fall.

Do you not take clear skies in your forecast?
Quoting 1054. FunnelVortex:
The beginnings of what could possibly be Winter Storm Alex, the first storm named with the FV system.






-----Possible Alex as it moves northeast from Texas---





FV system?
Could be the last thing we see before the end. It is quite beautiful though.
1073. ricderr
I may have citrus damage because of the poor forecasting.




NEWS FLASH!!!!!!! poor forecasting can lead to citrus damage......beware to all who forecast...you could be held liable
Quoting 1071. GeorgiaStormz:


FV system?


My personal system
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Worried that the temperatures might rise a few degrees, but no one seems to care that North Korea is becoming a Nuclear Power.

On February 11, 2013, the USGS detected a magnitude 5.1 seismic disturbance,[13] reported to be a third underground nuclear test.[14] North Korea has officially reported it as a successful nuclear test with a lighter warhead that delivers more force than before, but has not revealed the exact yield.


You see a nuclear winter will cool the earth down. This will solve the global warming problem. (Sarcasm flag on)
I completed my first college course, METEO 101 online through PSU, and got an A. The course was pretty easy to me, but it combined with school gave me some stressful times. I'm glad I got an A and I'm glad it's over. I'm also glad that HS end tomorrow for a two week Christmas break.
1077. LargoFl
Quoting 1076. wxchaser97:
I completed my first college course, METEO 101 online through PSU, and got an A. The course was pretty easy to me, but it combined with school gave me some stressful times. I'm glad I got an A and I'm glad it's over. I'm also glad that HS end tomorrow for a two week Christmas break.
grats and enjoy the break
Quoting 1077. LargoFl:
grats and enjoy the break

Thanks. Don't know if I can enjoy the first part of break since this series of lows will bring mostly rain, with a few periods of mixed precip. I much rather have all snow or even all mix/ice than just a cold rain.
1079. LargoFl
I dunno, yesterday disc channel had a great ongoing series on earth movements and volcano's..if one of those super volcano's blows..we wont be worrying about GW anymore...amazing how the continents bump into each other..how land goes under the sea and how new land is being formed..such as around new zealand..they found sea shells on top of the highest peaks in the asian mountains..cant spell their name lol..we today are just passers by in the grand scheme of things on earth...we humans think we know it all..we dont,our human written history is soooo short..what 11,000 years or so..thats a blink of an eye in earths history..amazing how much the earths surface changes over the long haul huh...
1080. LargoFl
Quoting 1073. ricderr:
I may have citrus damage because of the poor forecasting.




NEWS FLASH!!!!!!! poor forecasting can lead to citrus damage......beware to all who forecast...you could be held liable
well actually we do not need nor want a solid freeze anywhere near the citrus growing area's in florida,i have bananna's and an orange tree and a mango..dont want any solid freeze by me either..
1081. ricderr
well actually we do not need nor want a solid freeze anywhere near the citrus growing area's in florida




that's just it largo...i thought citrus damage was caused by cold weather....not bad forecasting....ta da da boom!
Quoting 1055. Sfloridacat5:


My rain bucket down here in Ft. Myers will be lucky to see a few sprinkles.
Sfl...Update, You do not need a 5 gallon bucket anymore, they make smaller rain gauges now.
Quoting 1080. LargoFl:
well actually we do not need nor want a solid freeze anywhere near the citrus growing area's in florida,i have bananna's and an orange tree and a mango..dont want any solid freeze by me either..
Cold is good for citrus, makes them juicier, just no freeze
Quoting 1058. NCstu:
for lack of a better topic, anyone want to discuss the Maunder Minimum? If all the sunspots go away will we have another little ice age?

Not according to this paper.

Or this one.

Or this one.
1085. LargoFl
Quoting 1081. ricderr:
well actually we do not need nor want a solid freeze anywhere near the citrus growing area's in florida




that's just it largo...i thought citrus damage was caused by cold weather....not bad forecasting....ta da da boom!
yeah in a way i can see poor forecasting hurting the industry..they watch for freeze warnings then do their thing to protect the tree's..if they hear its not going to get lower than 35 they may not do the protection and boom..the tree's freeze...by me ive seen it go down oh to 29 here..but the freezing temps did not last many hours so my tree's didnt get damaged..but an all night freeze might have..now the mango would,luckily iits not been damaged..get great fruit off of it..
1086. LargoFl
Quoting 1083. PalmBeachWeather:
Cold is good for citrus, makes them juicier, just no freeze
exactly
1087. NCstu
Quoting 1066. JohnLonergan:


#1. No

#2. CO2 concentrations are sufficent to override both low solar intensity and orbital forcing for tens of thousands of years.

How quickly can plants take CO2 out of the air? Like if the Tundra expands and maybe some existing forests get bigger, would that even make a dent? What role does the atmosphere/ocean interaction play. And FYI I'm on a knowledge seeking mission here. I get so frustrated hearing contradictory versions of climate change. In the last few weeks I've heard that it's the hottest it's ever been and that it's been getting colder.
Quoting 1057. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah not much at all

total precip out to hr 144



There is a solid snow pack in the Ohio Valley as well. Just in my neck of the woods we still have 6" on the ground with about 1" of water content. So, any rainfall over an 1" will not be welcome on top of that let alone 5".

Just in the last month, I have had an EF3 & EF1 Tornado within 2 miles of my house, followed by a blizzard that dumped 10" of snow 3 weeks later only to now see this flooding event. The weather, it's not so boring here lately...lol

1089. LargoFl
from Jan 2010............Newser) – Florida citrus growers stayed up last night spraying their crop with water, and taking other measures to prevent freezing, as arctic air threatened to inflict significant damage on the orange crop. Losses to the citrus crop may hit 10% as the state sees its worst freeze since 1989. "There'll be reduced juice yield on some of this frozen fruit, no doubt," a rep for the state's main citrus growers group told Reuters. "I would say there was considerable fruit, twig and leaf damage
1090. ricderr
however largo....they don't go by a general forecast...when it's cold you'll see trucks up and down the citrus fields at night as they check their own thermometers....they might check the evening news...but when it comes to their crops they use their own and not a general forecast
1091. LargoFl
Might just break a temp record here this weekend...
1092. LargoFl
Quoting 1090. ricderr:
however largo....they don't go by a general forecast...when it's cold you'll see trucks up and down the citrus fields at night as they check their own thermometers....they might check the evening news...but when it comes to their crops they use their own and not a general forecast
yeah your right..
Quoting 1087. NCstu:
How quickly can plants take CO2 out of the air? Like if the Tundra expands and maybe some existing forests get bigger, would that even make a dent? What role does the atmosphere/ocean interaction play. And FYI I'm on a knowledge seeking mission here. I get so frustrated hearing contradictory versions of climate change. In the last few weeks I've heard that it's the hottest it's ever been and that it's been getting colder.


More trees always = better environment and also helps with CO2 mitigation to what extent someone else can chime in.

When dealing with Climate Change it is extremely important to not concentrate on a specific time frame or event, no matter how extreme, but rather look at the big picture. The bigger the picture, the bigger the dataset, the stronger the accuracy of your analysis between the variables in the dataset will become.

Also with regards to Climate Change, yes the United States is most certainly below average this November and December, but that is a local phenomenon. Looking at the big picture shows that even though we are below average here in the States, it is much above average in most other places.

You can see that very relationship from the National Climatic Data Center from their NOV 2013 analysis in Dr. Masters' blog above.
Quoting 1088. ILwthrfan:


There is a solid snow pack in the Ohio Valley as well. Just in my neck of the woods we still have 6" on the ground with about 1" of water content. So, any rainfall over an 1" will not be welcome on top of that let alone 5".

Just in the last month, I have had an EF3 & EF1 Tornado within 2 miles of my house, followed by a blizzard that dumped 10" of snow 3 weeks later only to now see this flooding event. The weather, it's not so boring here lately...lol

we have been dealing with the same as well even snow amount is on the ground here as well
1095. LargoFl
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
406 AM PST THU DEC 19 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT...

.A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...
FALLING TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...INTERSTATE 5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE
COULD BE IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSNOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING
BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW RATES TO SOME AREAS.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SLOPES AS WELL AS
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.

Quoting 1090. ricderr:
however largo....they don't go by a general forecast...when it's cold you'll see trucks up and down the citrus fields at night as they check their own thermometers....they might check the evening news...but when it comes to their crops they use their own and not a general forecast
The farmers are very aware of the weather..Listening to the TV mets would be a big mistake. Belle Glade is a big produce area here in Palm Beach county. The helicopters are on standby during cold snaps. They hover over crops trying to circulate air to prevent frost.
1097. NCstu
Quoting 1084. Birthmark:

Not according to this paper.

Or this one.

Or this one.
Thank you for the links. All three papers agree and the range of expected decrease is from .1 to .24
That's small beans compared to other things going on. I also saw that Mount Pinatubo's '91 eruption lowered the temperature by .5 degrees!
I am convinced that a little ice age is not coming.
End of page lull
Quoting 1100. PalmBeachWeather:
End of page lull


This blog is good as dead
1102. Torito
Quoting 1101. FunnelVortex:


This blog is good as dead


Dead as a doornail. :P
1103. Torito
Da twins are still spinning.

Link
1104. NCstu
Quoting 1093. ILwthrfan:


When dealing with Climate Change it is extremely important to not concentrate on a specific time frame or event, no matter how extreme, but rather look at the big picture. The bigger the picture, the bigger the dataset, the stronger the accuracy of your analysis between the variables in the dataset will become.
That's the most rational viewpoint on climate change I've read in a long time.
Quoting 1102. Torito:


Dead as a doornail. :P


Yeeeeep.
Quoting 1064. VR46L:


Yeah I think its a series, one after the other probably before January before it calms down , The hills were white this morning too !


Clouds have just cleared before sunset to show snowy hills here too! Funny though, as was in Manchester Tues night and was on way to meet my friend for dinner in the city centre, and saw the full Moon above Picaddilly Gardens. So pulled out camera to get some photos and then realised, mid-Dec..Manchester...not even needing gloves on to do it, well mild! But back in Wales and front has gone through, so feels like winter now! Made the drive back yesterday before the worst of it at least, and glad we did as was just awful last night! Neighbor fixed the fence and it held though at least LOL
1107. ARiot
Quoting 1087. NCstu:
How quickly can plants take CO2 out of the air? Like if the Tundra expands and maybe some existing forests get bigger, would that even make a dent? What role does the atmosphere/ocean interaction play. And FYI I'm on a knowledge seeking mission here. I get so frustrated hearing contradictory versions of climate change. In the last few weeks I've heard that it's the hottest it's ever been and that it's been getting colder.


On the tundra, most of the papers published, and increasingly so, deal with the challenges of methane release and melting "perma" frost.

While in the minority of the AGW body of work, there is a small but growing group of researcheers who theorize that once we start to release Arctic methane, we may get to rapid, or catastrophic feedbacks. (People who do not accept science call this group alarmists. You will see it also written as CAGW.)

On the migration of trees due to AGW, there are plenty of observations to read.

I have not read any theory that suggests eventual migration of trees would negate impacts of a warming arctic region.

However, he're a paper on it:
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/x 04-031?journalCode=cjfr

1108. Patrap
The terra-forming of the Planet continues on schedule,unabated.

Tomorrow,like today will impart gigatones more CO2 in the Atmosphere and again the day after, then the day after,..and on and on.

Atmospheric CO2 November 2013

395.10ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for November 2013
Preliminary monthly average as of December 10, 2013
(Mauna Loa Observatory: NOAA-ESRL)

Global Carbon Emissions

Global Carbon Budget 2010

Global CO2 Budget 2013
GlobalCarbonProject.org posted data for the 2013 Global Carbon Budget on November 20, 2013. Key findings are listed here:
*Global emissions due to fossil fuel alone are set to grow in 2013 at a slightly lower pace of 2.1% than the average 3.1% since 2000, reaching a level that is 61% above emissions in 1990

*Growth rates for major emitter countries in 2012 were 5.9% (China), −3.7% (USA), −1.3% (EU28), and 7.7% (India).

*The 2012 carbon dioxide emissions breakdown is coal (43%), oil (33%), gas (18%), cement (5.3%) and gas flaring (0.6%).

*Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels increased in 2012 at a faster rate than the average over the past 10 years because of a combination of continuing growth in emissions and a decrease in land carbon sinks from very high levels in the previous two years.

* Dr. Mike Raupach of CSIRO: "A continuation of the emissions growth trends observed since 2000 would place the world on a path to reach 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times in 30 years"

*Key Sources: GlobalCarbonBudget.org CDIAC 2013

Global Carbon Budget

>>>> Links to the source data, credits and high-resolution images are given below.

Data for Global Carbon Emissions

(Fossil fuels, cement, land-use change)
Year

Carbon Emissions

2012

9.7 billion metric tonnes per year (+2.1%)
2011

9.47 billion metric tonnes per year
2010

9.19 billion metric tonnes per year
2009

8.74 billion metric tonnes per year
2008

8.77 billion of metric tonnes per year
2007

8.57 billion metric tonnes per year
2006

8.37 billion metric tonnes per year
1109. Patrap
No snow in Siberia? Locals marvel - and worry - at the 'snow shortage'
By Anna Liesowska17 December 2013



These extraordinary pictures give graphic new evidence of climate change.




We highlight December images taken in recent days in two Siberian cities Krasnoyarsk and Barnaul showing scenes that locals insist are unprecedented in living memory. The startling pictures from Krasnoyarsk show an almost total absence of snow yet as every school child around the world knows, snow is what Siberia is all about.

No more, it seems. The images of the River Yenisei with ducks splashing in the water, and grass in the parks, could be from autumn rather than deep in the winter in a city where December temperatures have gone as low as minus 47C, and the daily mean in minus 13C at this time of year, with plenty of snow on the ground.

As in many areas of Siberia this winter, the thermometer is reluctant to plummet to customary bone-chilling temperatures. Last night when we checked outside, it was a mere minus 3C. Day time temperatures lately have been warmer. As mother-of-two Anastasia said from Krasnoyarsk: 'I'm reading a book to my children and I hear the tapping of the rain in my ear. Rain? Rain??? Rain in the middle of December? In Siberia?'

Sergey Scherbin's images and footage from the historic west Siberian city of Barnaul - gateway to the Altai Mountains - are every bit as stunning, but not just because of the haunting beauty of the river scenes. The iceflow on the mighty Ob resembles the spring snow melt. This December scene is out of sync with the natural cycle. By this time of year, many Siberians expect to be fishing through thick ice on their rivers, and driving their vehicles over these sturdy 'winter roads'.

Not here. A similarly warm winter - and a lack of snow - has been reported from many places across Siberia and is a talking point especially among our senior citizens who can give some perspective to the debate. 'I cannot believe my eyes,' said one elderly local in Barnaul. 'This doesn't happen'.

In Novosibirsk, we asked 83 year old Fyodor Olifirenko to compare this winter to others he has known.

'I do not remember such a warm December,' he said. 'In 1963 there was some thaw on December 24-25, it was raining a bit. But by morning all was frozen and after that started strong frosts. But such weather - when it is constantly raining in the middle of December - I see this for the first time'.

So what do the academic experts say? Well, we'd like to hear from you, whether Russian or foreign? Help us understand these weather blips in Siberia? What do they mean? We will cover your views on the missing snow in future stories

1110. LargoFl
should be starting here pretty soon...........
Ryan Maue° ‏@RyanMaue 3 min
Christmas flight from NYC to Lisbon Portugal would be fun -- 200-knot jet core transects entire Atlantic. Link

1112. LargoFl
Flood Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
515 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013

...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH LATEST SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN
FLOODING.

INZ053>057-060>065-067>072-191815-
/O.NEW.KIND.FA.A.0003.131221T0600Z-131222T1200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-M ONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE- JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...
VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR
515 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...BARTHOLOMEW...BROWN...DAVIESS...DECATUR... GREENE...
JACKSON...JENNINGS...JOHNSON...KNOX...LAWRENCE...M ARTIN...
MONROE...MORGAN...OWEN...RUSH...SHELBY AND SULLIVAN.

* FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. IN ADDITION...RECENT SNOW MELT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO ACCELERATE FLOOD THREAT.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

TDUD
1113. LargoFl
All data points to the sun as the primary source of short-term and long term climate change on Earth. While volcanic eruptions such as the current one in Iceland can affect short-term weather conditions over a region, planetary climate is governed by solar activity-or lack of it.

The first inkling that something had changed with the sun was the recognition of an abnormal sunspot cycle. Then, astronomers noted that all the planets were heating up-even little Pluto on the outskirts of our solar system.

While climatologists on Earth massaged the data to make it seem like man-made global warming was real, major climate changes were occurring on Mars.

During the peak of the global warming debate, the prestigious National Geographic Magazine published a ground-breaking article by Habibullo Abdussamatov in 2007, "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says."

Habibullo Abdussamatov, an astrophysicist and head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, stated that solar activity caused the climate change on Earth and that observations of Mars revealed the shrinking of the carbon dioxide ice caps at the Martian South Polar region.

In that article, Abdussamatov explained: "The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars." The scientist, accurate in past predictions, has recently pronounced his belief that Earth will enter a "little Ice Age: as early as 2014 and lasting as long as two centuries. The last one occurred between 1650 and 1850 and accounted for many crop failures, outbreaks of famines and mass migrations.

Abdussamatov contends, "Long-term variations in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth are the main and principal reasons driving and defining the whole mechanism of climatic changes from the global warmings to the Little Ice Ages to the big glacial periods."

If his theory is true—and the International Space Station will be testing parts of it over the next six years—then use of hydrocarbon technology should not be diminished, but increased. Only through technological applications in growing economies would humanity be able to "to maintain economic growth in order to adapt to the upcoming new Little Ice Age in the middle of the 21st century," he asserts.

Whereas global warming would be a good thing (despite the gloomy forecasts) a mini-Ice Age could be disastrous: growing seasons would be shortened, more energy must be extended to stay warm, and food shortages may lead to breakouts of regional warfare.

"Observations of the sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is not guilty." The Russian scientist is concerned about this move towards an extending cooling period. He states, "and as for what lies ahead in the coming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged temperature drop."

If Abdussamatov's calculation is true—and the observable and historical data seem to support it—then the countries of the world are moving exactly in the wrong direction to deal with an impending Ice Age. Al Gore notwithstanding, global cooling is much more dangerous than global warming.

"The observed global warming of the climate of the Earth is not caused by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses, but by extraordinarily high solar intensity that extended over virtually the entire past century," Abdussamatov wrote. "Future decrease in global temperature will occur even if anthropogenic ejection of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere rises to record levels.

"Over the past decade," Abdussamatov warns, "global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop."
1114. Patrap
You know, when you see stuff like this in a Comment, one has to consider the, er, "source".

Al Gore notwithstanding, global cooling is much more dangerous than global warming.
1115. LargoFl
The storm that began this past weekend and lasted four days broke the Jerusalem snowfall record since 1879,” says this news website. “The snow piled up to a height of 40 to 60 centimeters (16 to 23½ inches), and an especially great quantity of snow fell in the mountains of northern Israel, reaching a height of 70 centimeters (28 inches).”

These statistics demonstrate just how unique this storm was in terms of its force and its extremely low temperatures.

The blizzard cut Jerusalem off and almost completely paralyzed life in the city as of Thursday, December 12, 2013.

The electric power grid in the city collapsed because of trees that had fallen on power lines, and many people had no electricity all weekend and suffered from the freezing temperatures.”
1116. Patrap
This is NOT science,

Why Earth may be entering a new Ice Age

by Terrence Aym


At least give the authors a citation or link if ya gonna post their op ed pieces here.
1117. NCstu
Quoting 1107. ARiot:


On the tundra, most of the papers published, and increasingly so, deal with the challenges of methane release and melting "perma" frost.

While in the minority of the AGW body of work, there is a small but growing group of researcheers who theorize that once we start to release Arctic methane, we may get to rapid, or catastrophic feedbacks. (People who do not accept science call this group alarmists. You will see it also written as CAGW.)

On the migration of trees due to AGW, there are plenty of observations to read.

I have not read any theory that suggests eventual migration of trees would negate impacts of a warming arctic region.

However, he're a paper on it:
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/x 04-031?journalCode=cjfr

Thanks. Great info, but not good news. I saw on another blog about the tundra melting and it is certainly alarming. Final questions of the day: why was there a hiatus and why didn't the scientific community see it coming?

I have seen articles claiming that many models did see it coming. I have also read that the hiatus is insignificant relative to the overall trend. All the same, I come back to the annoying comment, "if we can't predict the next twenty years, how can we be sure about the next hundred years"
1118. LargoFl
In the years since the late 1980s when “global warming” was unleashed on the world as the greatest hoax of the modern era, billions have come to believe the Earth was threatened by greater warming cause by man-made “greenhouse gases” resulting from industrial and all other uses of fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. While carbon dioxide has, indeed, increased in the atmosphere, the truth is that the Earth has entered a cooling cycle and that it is on the cusp of very cold weather for decades. We could even cross over into a full-fledged Ice Age because one is overdue at this point in time.

You cannot depend on what the mass media tells you. They are hardwired to continue the global warming hoax. You can, however, educate yourself with books such as Robert Felix’s. You can use Google to find out more about ice ages. You can and should prepare yourself for changes in the Earth’s climate that will have vast impacts on the global economy and on the ability to grow enough crops to feed the world’s population.
1119. pcola57
Quoting 1116. Patrap:
This is NOT science,

Why Earth may be entering a new Ice Age

by Terrence Aym


At least give the authors a citation or link if ya gonna post op ed pieces here.


Well put Pat..
The level of blogging integrity has dropped a couple of notches of late..
Check out RR's blog..
My post 545 could use some of your tweeking my friend.. :)

Out for awhile Xmas shopping.. :)
1120. Patrap
Quoting 1118. LargoFl:
In the years since the late 1980s when “global warming” was unleashed on the world as the greatest hoax of the modern era, billions have come to believe the Earth was threatened by greater warming cause by man-made “greenhouse gases” resulting from industrial and all other uses of fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. While carbon dioxide has, indeed, increased in the atmosphere, the truth is that the Earth has entered a cooling cycle and that it is on the cusp of very cold weather for decades. We could even cross over into a full-fledged Ice Age because one is overdue at this point in time.

You cannot depend on what the mass media tells you. They are hardwired to continue the global warming hoax. You can, however, educate yourself with books such as Robert Felix’s. You can use Google to find out more about ice ages. You can and should prepare yourself for changes in the Earth’s climate that will have vast impacts on the global economy and on the ability to grow enough crops to feed the world’s population.


Again, if your going to post "Op Ed" pieces blindly, at least give the link to it.

Thanks.


It’s Not Just Winter, It’s a New Ice Age
by ROBERT on NOVEMBER 14, 2013
1121. LargoFl
from NWS on sun spots..........24.

One interesting aspect of solar cycles is that the sun went through a period of sunspot inactivity from about 1645 to 1715. This period of sunspot minima is called the Maunder Minimum. The "Little Ice Age" occurred over parts of Earth during the Maunder Minimum. So the question remains, do solar minimums help to create periods of cooler than normal weather, and do solar maximums help to cause drought over sections of Earth? This question is not easily answered due to the immensely complex interaction between our atmosphere, land and oceans. In addition, there is evidence that some of the major ice ages Earth has experienced were caused by Earth being deviated from its "average" 23.5 degrees tilt on its axis. The Earth has tilted anywhere from near 22 degrees to 24.5 degrees on its axis. The number of sunspots alone does not alter the overall solar emissions much at all. However, the increased/decreased magnetic activity which accompanies sunspot maxima/minima directly influences the amount of ultraviolet radiation which moves through the upper atmosphere.
1122. Patrap
Well,it iz kinda odd and ironic someone posts Jibberish in the leading Communicator of AGW and its causes blog entry.
1123. flsky
This is a spectacular map!

Quoting 1103. Torito:
Da twins are still spinning.

Link
1124. Patrap

Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased

The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.


Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change
Quoting 1082. PalmBeachWeather:
Sfl...Update, You do not need a 5 gallon bucket anymore, they make smaller rain gauges now.


This is my rain bucket. It records .01 of an inch.
1126. ricderr
You cannot depend on what the mass media tells you. They are hardwired to continue the global warming hoax.


BS,,,,,,rubbish,.....and only someone stupid would believe this trash.....



i feel much better now....everyone enjoy their day.....i've posted enough on this topic
1127. Patrap
Ahhh, the anti-Temp!



New Orleans Weather at a Glance

Weather Station

Uptown, New Orleans


Station Select

Now

Scattered Clouds
Temperature

66.6 °F
Feels Like 66.6 °F
1128. Patrap
ric, bless your insight and brevity.




1129. Dakster
Quoting 1104. NCstu:
That's the most rational viewpoint on climate change I've read in a long time.


absolutely - Now what does that picture say?

(Not being sarcastic, just want the honest answer)
1130. LargoFl
and Rush was 100% RIGHT..downplay global warming and watch the attacks begin LOL...as much as i hate to admit he is right about anything..on this point he is right..just Look at the posts made here lol...good day everyone..
1131. Patrap
Global Climate Change Indicators

A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years.

These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences.

For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover. These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.
1132. NCstu
Link

little ice age caused by volcanoes and not solar activity?

"Of the six centuries examined, the 17th century experienced the greatest number (six) of climatically significant eruptions. Strong temperature anomalies suggested there were three other major volcanic eruptions during the late 17th century that are not reported in historical accounts. It is also noteworthy that every Northern Hemispheric temperature departure of 0.3°C or more since 1400 (19 total events) followed a confirmed major volcanic eruption. This study thus suggests there is a strong linkage between volcanic activity and large-scale temperature variability, and it may help to explain the cool temperatures of the Little Ice Age, as it illustrates how closely-spaced multiple eruptions could reduce hemispheric temperatures on decadal and multi-decadal time scales, as well as how a lack of such eruptions could result in periods of warmer global temperatures."

Quoting 1128. Patrap:
ric, bless your insight and brevity.




Seconded. But please don't provide links for the drivel - ain't nobody got time for that!
1134. Patrap


Who is Rush?

The Band?

A Farewell to King's,2112, Xanadu ?

Ahh, now I know,

The Grand Illusion

: )
Quoting 1130. LargoFl:
and Rush was 100% RIGHT..downplay global warming and watch the attacks begin LOL...as much as i hate to admit he is right about anything..on this point he is right..just Look at the posts made here lol...good day everyone..
So you come on to a blog about climate change, post a bunch of non-scientific opinion pieces without links, and say "Rush" is right because you get negative responses? This is fantastic reasoning. (sarcasm)
Um... heat burst in Frederick, Maryland?

1137. LargoFl
why govt LOVES global warming...cha ching......Link
Artic


Antartic
1139. LargoFl
Quoting 1135. SouthTampa:
So you come on to a blog about climate change, post a bunch of non-scientific opinion pieces without links, and say "Rush" is right because you get negative responses? This is fantastic reasoning. (sarcasm)
actually we live in an interglacial period,the glaciers WILL return,its the Norm on earth.
1140. LargoFl
Toasty warm

The Arctic ice sheets have been advancing and retreating for the last 2.6 million years, as temperatures fell and rose. Warmer periods %u2013 including the one we now live in %u2013 are known as interglacials. The Lake El'gygytgyn core confirms that Arctic temperatures during eight of these periods were on average 4 to 5 C warmer than in the region today. "That's really a lot," says Melles.
so...we dont need..any new taxes
1141. NCstu
Quoting 1129. Dakster:


absolutely - Now what does that picture say?

(Not being sarcastic, just want the honest answer)
It says keep collecting data and working on models. We should act on best estimates, but admit that those estimates have a high degree of uncertanity.
1142. LargoFl
actually this man makes a good point here.......

BY GERALD E. MARSH


CHICAGO — Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the day, the real danger facing humanity is not global warming, but more likely the coming of a new Ice Age.

What we live in now is known as an interglacial, a relatively brief period between long ice ages. Unfortunately for us, most interglacial periods last only about ten thousand years, and that is how long it has been since the last Ice Age ended.

How much longer do we have before the ice begins to spread across the Earth’s surface? Less than a hundred years or several hundred? We simply don’t know.

Even if all the temperature increase over the last century is attributable to human activities, the rise has been relatively modest one of a little over one degree Fahrenheit — an increase well within natural variations over the last few thousand years.

While an enduring temperature rise of the same size over the next century would cause humanity to make some changes, it would undoubtedly be within our ability to adapt.

Entering a new ice age, however, would be catastrophic for the continuation of modern civilization.

One has only to look at maps showing the extent of the great ice sheets during the last Ice Age to understand what a return to ice age conditions would mean. Much of Europe and North-America were covered by thick ice, thousands of feet thick in many areas and the world as a whole was much colder.

The last “little” Ice Age started as early as the 14th century when the Baltic Sea froze over followed by unseasonable cold, storms, and a rise in the level of the Caspian Sea. That was followed by the extinction of the Norse settlements in Greenland and the loss of grain cultivation in Iceland. Harvests were even severely reduced in Scandinavia And this was a mere foreshadowing of the miseries to come.

By the mid-17th century, glaciers in the Swiss Alps advanced, wiping out farms and entire villages. In England, the River Thames froze during the winter, and in 1780, New York Harbor froze. Had this continued, history would have been very different. Luckily, the decrease in solar activity that caused the Little Ice Age ended and the result was the continued flowering of modern civilization.

There were very few Ice Ages until about 2.75 million years ago when Earth’s climate entered an unusual period of instability. Starting about a million years ago cycles of ice ages lasting about 100,000 years, separated by relatively short interglacial perioods, like the one we are now living in became the rule. Before the onset of the Ice Ages, and for most of the Earth’s history, it was far warmer than it is today.

Indeed, the Sun has been getting brighter over the whole history of the Earth and large land plants have flourished. Both of these had the effect of dropping carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to the lowest level in Earth’s long history.

Five hundred million years ago, carbon dioxide concentrations were over 13 times current levels; and not until about 20 million years ago did carbon dioxide levels drop to a little less than twice what they are today.

It is possible that moderately increased carbon dioxide concentrations could extend the current interglacial period. But we have not reached the level required yet, nor do we know the optimum level to reach.

So, rather than call for arbitrary limits on carbon dioxide emissions, perhaps the best thing the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the climatology community in general could do is spend their efforts on determining the optimal range of carbon dioxide needed to extend the current interglacial period indefinitely.

NASA has predicted that the solar cycle peaking in 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries and should cause a very significant cooling of Earth’s climate. Will this be the trigger that initiates a new Ice Age?

We ought to carefully consider this possibility before we wipe out our current prosperity by spending trillions of dollars to combat a perceived global warming threat that may well prove to be only a will-o-the-wisp.



Gerald Marsh is a retired physicist from the Argonne National Laboratory and a former consultant to the Department of Defense on strategic nuclear technology and policy in the Reagan, Bush, and Clinton Administration. Readers may e-mail him at gemarsh@uchicago.edu


It would be lovely for all of this to carry over to Rood's blog. I am really not in mood for another day of AGW arguments.
Quoting 1125. Sfloridacat5:


This is my rain bucket. It records .01 of an inch.
LOL...... I just knew it
first, merry christmas to all, 2nd, can anyone tell me what the weather for the belize, roatan{SP] area for 22/12/13 to 26/12/13 will be ,, i have had problems trying to find a 7 day forecast,,thank you
Here is some food for thought, suppose we did enter a mini Ice Age, I don't think it would last as long as the previous one, because my belief is that Global Warming would return and wipe that out as fast as it showed up. Besides I don't think we will be entering any Ice Ages soon, not at least for the next few hundreds of years. But there is always some wiggle room for that to happen, it's called uncertainty, albeit a small uncertainty as shown by the global models and their ensembles. Time to face the facts and accept truth, we humans have accelerated the CO2 levels on Earth, and while it is our fault, we did it to survive now. Without the age of industry we would have never progressed like we have now. We would still be living in huts and driving around bicycles. Basically we would still be living in the stone age. And if you look back at Earth's history, it follows era's. Mesopatamia, Babylon, Persia, Ancient Egypt, Ancient Greece, the Romans, Ancient China, Ancient India, the Old World, the New World. Every Era had something that was unique. It just so happens our era has Industry which has its advantages and disadvantages.

Here is my thing I think life on this planet will adapt to the changing climate, but at the cost of extreme weather events that will bring death and devastation, in fact it is very much possible certain populations will be wiped out completely, while certain populations will survive. And it also even much more possible some new species will form.
1148. JRRP




Quoting 1134. Patrap:


Who is Rush?

The Band?

A Farewell to King's,2112, Xanadu ?

Ahh, now I know,

The Grand Illusion

: )
One of my favorites.........Tom Sawyer by Rush
This looks mighty interesting if live across the Eastern US.

Quoting 1148. JRRP:


I wish the Atlantic Hurricane Season was like the WPAC season, always ongoing. I love tracking tropical systems and this blog is more driven towards tropical weather then anything else.
1152. Patrap
from the entry,

November 2013 was the 345th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average.

Or 28.75 years now.

Let us know when we get a month of Cooler ones.


"Spppfffft"

Sip, ahhhhhhhh....
With this ice storm headed my way, I'm thinking we'll need to prepare a storm survival kit.

Link

According to The Weather Channel,

"Numerous utility interruptions with some damage to main feeder lines and equipment expected. Tree limb damage is excessive. Outages lasting 1-5 days."
1155. dabirds
Suggest you catch the NOVA show on Greenland ice sheet melt that ran last night, then you'll be hoping for some cooling, (at least in the polar regions) not fearing it, Largo.

Speaking of melt, already 48 in S C IL. See we're forecast for about 2" of rain now, really didn't want 3-4 had seen over us before. Hope the ground will thaw enough to let some soak in, but have flood watches out. Will be interesting Sun where freeze line sets up. StL last night expected them to miss the worst of it, but had it too close for comfort over us.
From 1142 - "So, rather than call for arbitrary limits on carbon dioxide emissions, perhaps the best thing the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the climatology community in general could do is spend their efforts on determining the optimal range of carbon dioxide needed to extend the current interglacial period indefinitely. "

Largo, I think if you looked at the IPCC reports, you would find that they are already predicting that current and projected CO2 levels are enough to prevent the next glaciation, and probably enough to eventually cause the end of the current Ice Age (defined as no ice at either pole).

That should make you happy.
Quoting 1146. gregpinehurstnc:
first, merry christmas to all, 2nd, can anyone tell me what the weather for the belize, roatan{SP] area for 22/12/13 to 26/12/13 will be ,, i have had problems trying to find a 7 day forecast,,thank you
Belize (MZBZ)
Elevation
16 ft
Station Select
Now
Light RainLight Rain
Temperature
73 °F
Feels Like 73 °F
Wind(mph)

Link
positive PNA with MJO looks like we might get some fun & games come New Years Eve.

1159. Dakster
Quoting 1136. Bluestorm5:
Um... heat burst in Frederick, Maryland?



Rush was filming his show then. All the hot air must have escape the studio.
Quoting 1136. Bluestorm5:
Um... heat burst in Frederick, Maryland?


That would be the most extreme heat burst ever observed by an incredible margin if it were one. Alas for extreme weather enthusiasts though, for it is a mere misreading. :P
Quoting 1134. Patrap:


Who is Rush?

The Band?

A Farewell to King's,2112, Xanadu ?

Ahh, now I know,

The Grand Illusion

: )


Can only plus this once. Oh, well. Well said Pat.
This is what I am referring to when I say Fun & Games come late December.

Quoting 1136. Bluestorm5:
Um... heat burst in Frederick, Maryland?


Error.
Quoting 1163. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Error.


No we wouldn't have known that but thanks anyways.
Quoting 1153. StormTrackerScott:

But this chart shows it diving towards negative.
1166. LargoFl
ah the last sentence..hmmm.........But even that warming will not stave off the eventual return of huge glaciers, because ice ages last for millennia and fossil fuels will not.In about 300 years, all available fossil fuels may well have been consumed.Over the following centuries, excess carbon dioxide will naturally dissolve into the oceans or get trapped by the formation of carbonate minerals. Such processes won’t be offset by the industrial emissions we see today, and atmospheric carbon dioxide will slowly decline toward preindustrial levels. In about 2,000 years, when the types of planetary motions that can induce polar cooling start to coincide again, the current warming trend will be a distant memory.

This means that humanity will be hit by a one-two punch the likes of which we have never seen. Nature is as unforgiving to men as it was to dinosaurs; advanced civilization will not survive unless we develop energy sources that curb the carbon emissions heating the planet today and help us fend off the cold when the ice age comes. Solar, nuclear, and other non-fossil-­fuel energy sources need to be developed now, before carbon emissions get out of hand. MIT alumni could play a prominent part in discovering the technology needed to keep us all going. And there are fortunes to be made from the effort. It’s worth thinking about.

Professor Franklin Hadley Cocks ‘63, SM ‘64, ScD ‘65, teaches energy technology and climate-related courses at Duke University and is the author of Energy Demand and Climate Change (Wiley-VCH), which summarizes energy and climate issues of the past, present, and future.
1167. Dakster
Quoting 1154. AstroHurricane001:
With this ice storm headed my way, I'm thinking we'll need to prepare a storm survival kit.

Link

According to The Weather Channel,

"Numerous utility interruptions with some damage to main feeder lines and equipment expected. Tree limb damage is excessive. Outages lasting 1-5 days."


Hurricane kit should do... HURLO? or do we call him WURLO now?
The Antarctic Sea Ice is relatively unimportant becausethe big difference between the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice has to do with albedo effect. The change in planetary albedo that comes with Arctic sea ice loss is significant, and it's something to be very concerned about. But there is almost no change in the Antarctic sea ice minimum, and thus there is little to no change in planetary albedo at the south pole, positive or negative.

"Skeptics" keep focusing on the Antarctic sea ice maximum as if it actually means anything at all. The maximum occurs during the late southern winter when there is very little sunlight hitting the pole, and thus any increase has a very small albedo effect related to it.

The increase in Sea Ice is insignificant when compared to the inceasing loss of land ice. Melting of land ice sheets is a significant component of sea level rise.

Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland
and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE


Ice Sheet Loss at Both Poles Increasing, Study Finds

The un-ice age




These graphs show how the rates of ice mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet (top) and the Antarctic Ice Sheet (bottom) have been increasing rapidly. Rates of ice loss are shown in gigatons per year. Data are from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). (Courtesy I. Velicogna, Geophysical Research Letters)
1169. LargoFl
Quoting 1156. FLwolverine:
From 1142 - "So, rather than call for arbitrary limits on carbon dioxide emissions, perhaps the best thing the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the climatology community in general could do is spend their efforts on determining the optimal range of carbon dioxide needed to extend the current interglacial period indefinitely. "

Largo, I think if you looked at the IPCC reports, you would find that they are already predicting that current and projected CO2 levels are enough to prevent the next glaciation, and probably enough to eventually cause the end of the current Ice Age (defined as no ice at either pole).

That should make you happy.
yes if it proves true it would be a good thing
Quoting 1165. GTstormChaserCaleb:
But this chart shows it diving towards negative.


It goes positive come Late December the sametime the models show a Gulf Low moving up the eastern seaboard. Interesting weather to round out 2013 it appears.
Quoting 1109. Patrap:
No snow in Siberia? Locals marvel - and worry - at the 'snow shortage'
By Anna Liesowska17 December 2013



These extraordinary pictures give graphic new evidence of climate change.




We highlight December images taken in recent days in two Siberian cities Krasnoyarsk and Barnaul showing scenes that locals insist are unprecedented in living memory. The startling pictures from Krasnoyarsk show an almost total absence of snow yet as every school child around the world knows, snow is what Siberia is all about.

No more, it seems. The images of the River Yenisei with ducks splashing in the water, and grass in the parks, could be from autumn rather than deep in the winter in a city where December temperatures have gone as low as minus 47C, and the daily mean in minus 13C at this time of year, with plenty of snow on the ground.

As in many areas of Siberia this winter, the thermometer is reluctant to plummet to customary bone-chilling temperatures. Last night when we checked outside, it was a mere minus 3C. Day time temperatures lately have been warmer. As mother-of-two Anastasia said from Krasnoyarsk: 'I'm reading a book to my children and I hear the tapping of the rain in my ear. Rain? Rain??? Rain in the middle of December? In Siberia?'

Sergey Scherbin's images and footage from the historic west Siberian city of Barnaul - gateway to the Altai Mountains - are every bit as stunning, but not just because of the haunting beauty of the river scenes. The iceflow on the mighty Ob resembles the spring snow melt. This December scene is out of sync with the natural cycle. By this time of year, many Siberians expect to be fishing through thick ice on their rivers, and driving their vehicles over these sturdy 'winter roads'.

Not here. A similarly warm winter - and a lack of snow - has been reported from many places across Siberia and is a talking point especially among our senior citizens who can give some perspective to the debate. 'I cannot believe my eyes,' said one elderly local in Barnaul. 'This doesn't happen'.

In Novosibirsk, we asked 83 year old Fyodor Olifirenko to compare this winter to others he has known.

'I do not remember such a warm December,' he said. 'In 1963 there was some thaw on December 24-25, it was raining a bit. But by morning all was frozen and after that started strong frosts. But such weather - when it is constantly raining in the middle of December - I see this for the first time'.

So what do the academic experts say? Well, we'd like to hear from you, whether Russian or foreign? Help us understand these weather blips in Siberia? What do they mean? We will cover your views on the missing snow in future stories



Nothing's going to melt if you go a little further into the heart of Siberia.

Yukutsk, Russia

Tonight
-28 F


Friday
-26 F

Friday Night
-33 F


Saturday
-32 | -33 F

Sunday
-26 | -29 F


Monday
-22 | -24 F

That's plenty cold and I can't see anyone wanting it colder than that.
1172. dabirds
Quoting 1149. PalmBeachWeather:
One of my favorites.........Tom Sawyer by Rush
Like the other three songs on the first side much better myself, Limelight best
Good Afternoon:

Whether the Earth is currently warming or cooling (as it has for past milennia), the "real" issue, with climate change, is how it is going to impact our current society based upon current global settlement patterns (coastal populations come to mind if we are talking about potential sea level rise) and perhaps most importantly, the impact on water and agriculture, for the billions of people that currently inhabit the Earth (billions more that in past eons) because of the devastating impacts of drought on the two basics for human survival; fresh water to drink and food to eat .

If we can conclusively determine, and the case is certainly emerging, that "modern" era carbon emissions (a product of the current industrial and post-industrial age)  are in fact exacerbating the problem, and hastening an otherwise normal warming period, then we owe it to our future generations to make changes/adjustments, study the issues, and take steps to minimize the damage on the future generations.

We are talking about finding/developing drought resistant crops that can survive with little water and provide a viable caloric diet and may need to relocate our populations further inland if sea level rise becomes an issue and start talking about making investments in desalinization plants of the most abundant source of water in the future will come from the oceans.

It's a long term process we are in and we need to be in it for the long haul over the span of several generations to address the this real issue of climate change and the impacts on humankind and how to mitigate the impacts............................We can change but we cannot stop Mother Nature.  

Quoting 1164. StormTrackerScott:


No we wouldn't have known that but thanks anyways.

He obviously didn't. He asked the question and I answered it. Stop trying to he a smart...
Quoting 1160. 1900hurricane:

That would be the most extreme heat burst ever observed by an incredible margin if it were one. Alas for extreme weather enthusiasts though, for it is a mere misreading. :P
Quoting 1163. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Error.


Hard to tell my sarcasm on internet, lol. I knew it's likely to be an error. It's still funny to look anyway :P

Quoting 1164. StormTrackerScott:


No we wouldn't have known that but thanks anyways.


Still mad about your ban last night, huh?
Quoting 1174. TropicalAnalystwx13:

He obviously didn't. He asked the question and I answered it. Stop trying to he a smart...


How's that PDO holding up? J/K -87 to -11 in a month is pretty impressive.
1177. Patrap

Flooded areas of Boulder County, Colo. are seen from a U.S. Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter Sept. 18, 2013. U.S. Army National Guard photo by Staff Sgt. Jecca Geffre



DOD Wraps Climate Change Response into Master Plans

By Cheryl Pellerin
American Forces Press Service


WASHINGTON, Nov. 26, 2013 – The effects of climate change are already evident at Defense Department installations in the United States and overseas, and DOD expects climate change to challenge its ability to fulfill its mission in the future, according to the first DOD Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap.


John Conger, the acting deputy undersecretary of defense for installations and environment told American Forces Press Service the roadmap was completed in 2012 and published early this year.
The document “had us do a variety of things,” Conger said. “But the piece that I think is the crux of the report is, rather than creating a stovepipe within the DOD organizational structure to deal with climate change, [the document says] we are going to integrate climate change considerations into the normal processes, the day-to-day jobs of everybody.”
Such language is going to be integrated into various guidance documents, he added, “and we’ve already started doing that.”
The department’s action is part of a federal government effort to address the global challenge. In June, President Barack Obama launched a Climate Action Plan to cut carbon pollution, prepare communities for climate change impacts and lead similar international efforts.
Across the United States, local communities and cities are updating building codes, adjusting the way they manage natural resources, investing in more resilient infrastructure and planning for rapid recovery from damage that could occur due to climate change.
And on Nov. 1, the president issued an executive order on climate preparedness directing federal agencies to modernize programs to support climate-resilient investments, manage lands and waters for climate change preparedness and resilience, and plan for climate-change-related risk, among other things.
The order also forms an interagency council on climate preparedness and resilience, chaired by the White House and composed of more than 25 agencies, including the Defense Department.
The foundation for DOD’s strategic policy on climate change began with the defense secretary’s publication in 2010 of the Quadrennial Defense Review. The QDR, produced every four years, translates the National Defense Strategy into policies and initiatives.
In 2010, the QDR for the first time linked climate change and national security. It said climate change may affect DOD by shaping the department’s operating environments, roles and missions, have significant geopolitical impacts worldwide, and accelerate instability or conflict.
The QDR said DOD also would have to adjust to climate change impacts on its facilities, infrastructure, training and testing activities and military capabilities.
As the acting deputy undersecretary of defense for installations and environment, Conger also is the department’s senior climate official, and his first job is to manage the installations and environment portfolio.
“That includes over 500 bases and 300,000 buildings and 2.2 billion square feet of space,” he said. “The infrastructure has a plant replacement value on the order of $850 billion. There’s a lot of stuff out there that is all going to be impacted by changes in the climate.”
Conger said the department has to plan for the contingencies that climate change poses just as it would plan for any other contingency, driven by any other force in the world.
“As I look at managing the infrastructure, I have to think about risk as well in that context,” he said. “What is climate change likely to do? What are the major changes that will occur that will affect that $850 billion real property portfolio?”
The obvious threats are things like a rise in sea-levels, storm surges and storm intensity, but there’s also drought and thawing permafrost that affects bases in Alaska, the deputy undersecretary added.
“Similarly, on our installations we have over 400 endangered species,” he said. “We manage those species through documents called integrated natural resources management plans and we manage [them] not through some degree of altruism … but the fact is that if we don’t manage those species effectively and they do appear more threatened, then other regulatory agencies will put limits on what we can do on our property and that will impact training.”
Conger added, “We said, ‘Take climate into account. Make sure you have planned for this. Make sure you have thought about it and addressed it in your [installation management] plans.’”
“These are all, in my mind, sensible, reasonable steps that don’t cost very much money today and just require a little bit of forethought in order to reduce our exposure to risk tomorrow.”
The president’s June Climate Action Plan categorized recommendations for action in terms of mitigating or eliminating emissions that cause climate change, adapting to climate change, and working internationally on climate change, Conger said.
DOD has been looking at mitigation, or the energy problem, for a long time, the deputy undersecretary added.
Energy and climate are tied together, Conger said, because energy and emissions are tied together.
“We are working very hard and diligently to reduce our energy usage, to reduce our energy intensity and to increase the use of renewable energy, which doesn’t have emissions,” he said. “And we have done each of these things not because it is good for the climate or because it reduces emissions but because they provide mission and monetary benefits.”
Conger says the department’s $4 billion annual utility bill drives the search for energy-efficiency, renewable-energy development projects and more. All have benefits from a mission perspective first, he said, and also turn out to be good for the environment.
(Follow Cheryl Pellerin on Twitter: @PellerinAFPS)
1178. ricderr
LMAO.....scotty....did you get banned again last night?......who would have thunk it
This is, more or less, a science blog. Science is observing nature and attempting to develope explainations of those observations. In science, observation rules. That is, any explaination that does not adequately account for what is observed must be discarded, no matter how attractive that explaination may be. So, Largo, my question to you is: what would you have to observe for you to change your position on AGW?
Quoting 1178. ricderr:
LOL.....scotty....did you get banned again last night?......who would have thunk it


Yup. Treated TA13 like a child. Didn't take long for mods to hit him with ban hammer.
1181. Patrap
Terra autem in salutem
Quoting 1166. LargoFl:
ah the last sentence..hmmm.........But even that warming will not stave off the eventual return of huge glaciers, because ice ages last for millennia and fossil fuels will not.In about 300 years, all available fossil fuels may well have been consumed.Over the following centuries, excess carbon dioxide will naturally dissolve into the oceans or get trapped by the formation of carbonate minerals. Such processes won’t be offset by the industrial emissions we see today, and atmospheric carbon dioxide will slowly decline toward preindustrial levels. In about 2,000 years, when the types of planetary motions that can induce polar cooling start to coincide again, the current warming trend will be a distant memory.

This means that humanity will be hit by a one-two punch the likes of which we have never seen. Nature is as unforgiving to men as it was to dinosaurs; advanced civilization will not survive unless we develop energy sources that curb the carbon emissions heating the planet today and help us fend off the cold when the ice age comes. Solar, nuclear, and other non-fossil-­fuel energy sources need to be developed now, before carbon emissions get out of hand. MIT alumni could play a prominent part in discovering the technology needed to keep us all going. And there are fortunes to be made from the effort. It’s worth thinking about.

Professor Franklin Hadley Cocks ‘63, SM ‘64, ScD ‘65, teaches energy technology and climate-related courses at Duke University and is the author of Energy Demand and Climate Change (Wiley-VCH), which summarizes energy and climate issues of the past, present, and future.


Quoting 1173. weathermanwannabe:
Good Afternoon:

Whether the Earth is currently warming or cooling (as it has for past milennia), the "real" issue, with climate change, is how it is going to impact our current society based upon current global settlement patterns (coastal populations come to mind if we are talking about potential sea level rise) and perhaps most importantly, the impact on water and agriculture, for the billions of people that currently inhabit the Earth (billions more that in past eons) because of the devastating impacts of drought on the two basics for human survival; fresh water to drink and food to eat .

If we can conclusively determine, and the case is certainly emerging, that "modern" era carbon emissions (a product of the current industrial and post-industrial age)  are in fact exacerbating the problem, and hastening an otherwise normal warming period, then we owe it to our future generations to make changes/adjustments, study the issues, and take steps to minimize the damage on the future generations.

We are talking about finding/developing drought resistant crops that can survive with little water and provide a viable caloric diet and may need to relocate our populations further inland if sea level rise becomes an issue and start talking about making investments in desalinization plants of the most abundant source of water in the future will come from the oceans.

It's a long term process we are in and we need to be in it for the long haul over the span of several generations to address the this real issue of climate change and the impacts on humankind and how to mitigate the impacts............................We can change but we cannot stop Mother Nature.  

I like both of these posts and expresses my concerns as well. Sea level rises leads to coastal inundation, what happens when we exhaust all the oil reserves? Hopefully by then everything has been converted to renewable energy sources. How will plants and vegetation fare in a warming climate, will farmers have to change ways in which they grow their crops? Just take a look around all of this is currently happening. Hurricanes in the past decades are bringing storm surges that are inundating coastal cities around the world, projects are being conducted to convert to renewable energy, and organic crops are becoming more and more numerous in grocery stores and supermarkets. The changes are already happening. Forward we march on ---->
Quoting 1177. Patrap:



DOD Wraps Climate Change Response into Master Plans



That's enough for me, if the DOD and most the other worldwide defense agencies take Climate Change seriously, we all should.
1184. Patrap
For Insurers, No Doubts on Climate Change

NY Times
By EDUARDO PORTER
Published: May 14, 2013

If there were one American industry that would be particularly worried about climate change it would have to be insurance, right?

From Hurricane Sandy’s devastating blow to the Northeast to the protracted drought that hit the Midwest Corn Belt, natural catastrophes across the United States pounded insurers last year, generating $35 billion in privately insured property losses, $11 billion more than the average over the last decade.

And the industry expects the situation will get worse. “Numerous studies assume a rise in summer drought periods in North America in the future and an increasing probability of severe cyclones relatively far north along the U.S. East Coast in the long term,” said Peter Höppe, who heads Geo Risks Research at the reinsurance giant Munich Re. “The rise in sea level caused by climate change will further increase the risk of storm surge.” Most insurers, including the reinsurance companies that bear much of the ultimate risk in the industry, have little time for the arguments heard in some right-wing circles that climate change isn’t happening, and are quite comfortable with the scientific consensus that burning fossil fuels is the main culprit of global warming.

“Insurance is heavily dependent on scientific thought,” Frank Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of America, told me last week. “It is not as amenable to politicized scientific thought.”

Yet when I asked Mr. Nutter what the American insurance industry was doing to combat global warming, his answer was surprising: nothing much. “The industry has really not been engaged in advocacy related to carbon taxes or proposals addressing carbon,” he said. While some big European reinsurers like Munich Re and Swiss Re support efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, “in the United States the household names really have not engaged at all.” Instead, the focus of insurers’ advocacy efforts is zoning rules and disaster mitigation.

Last week, scientists announced that the concentration of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had reached 400 parts per million — its highest level in at least three million years, before humans appeared on the scene. Back then, mastodons roamed the earth, the polar ice caps were smaller and the sea level was as much as 60 to 80 feet higher.

The milestone puts the earth nearer a point of no return, many scientists think, when vast, disruptive climate change is baked into our future. Pietr P. Tans, who runs the monitoring program at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told my colleague Justin Gillis: “It symbolizes that so far we have failed miserably in tackling this problem.” And it raises a perplexing question: why hasn’t corporate America done more to sway its allies in the Republican Party to try to avert a disaster that would clearly be devastating to its own interests?

Mr. Nutter argues that the insurance industry’s reluctance is born of hesitation to become embroiled in controversies over energy policy. But perhaps its executives simply don’t feel so vulnerable. Like farmers, who are largely protected from the ravages of climate change by government-financed crop insurance, insurers also have less to fear than it might at first appear.

The federal government covers flood insurance, among the riskiest kind in this time of crazy weather. And insurers can raise premiums or even drop coverage to adjust to higher risks. Indeed, despite Sandy and drought, property and casualty insurance in the United States was more profitable in 2012 than in 2011, according to the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.

But the industry’s analysis of the risks it faces is evolving. One sign of that is how some top American insurers responded to a billboard taken out by the conservative Heartland Institute, a prominent climate change denier that has received support from the insurance industry.

The billboard had a picture of Theodore Kaczynski, the Unabomber, who asked: “I still believe in global warming. Do you?”

Concerned about global warming and angry to be equated with a murderous psychopath, insurance companies like Allied World, Renaissance Re, State Farm and XL Group dropped their support for Heartland.

Even more telling, Eli Lehrer, a Heartland vice president who at the time led an insurance-financed project, left the group and helped start the R Street Institute, a standard conservative organization in all respects but one: it believes in climate change and supports a carbon tax to combat it. And it is financed largely with insurance industry money.

Mr. Lehrer points out that a carbon tax fits conservative orthodoxy. It is a broad and flat tax, whose revenue can be used to do away with the corporate income tax — a favorite target of the right. It provides a market-friendly signal, forcing polluters to bear the cost imposed on the rest of us and encouraging them to pollute less. And it is much preferable to a parade of new regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency.

“We are having a debate on the right about a carbon tax for the first time in a long time,” Mr. Lehrer said.

Bob Inglis, formerly a Republican congressman from South Carolina who lost his seat in the 2010 primary to a Tea Party-supported challenger, is another member of this budding coalition. Before he left Congress, he proposed a revenue-neutral bill to create a carbon tax and cut payroll taxes.

Changing the political economy of a carbon tax remains an uphill slog especially in a stagnant economy. But Mr. Inglis notices a thaw. “The best way to do this is in the context of a grand bargain on tax reform,” he said. “It could happen in 2015 or 2016, but probably not before.”

He lists a dozen Republicans in the House and eight in the Senate who would be open to legislation to help avert climate change. He notes that Exelon, the gas and electricity giant, is sympathetic to his efforts — perhaps not least because a carbon tax would give an edge to gas over its dirtier rival, coal. Exxon, too, has also said a carbon tax would be the most effective way to reduce emissions. So why hasn’t the insurance industry come on board?

Robert Muir-Wood is the chief research officer of Risk Management Solutions, one of two main companies the insurance industry relies on to crunch data and model future risks. He argues that insurers haven’t changed their tune because — with the exception of 2004 and 2005, when a string of hurricanes from Ivan to Katrina caused damage worth more than $200 billion — they haven’t yet experienced hefty, sustained losses attributable to climate change.

“Insurers were ready to sign up to all sorts of actions against climate change,” Mr. Muir-Wood told me from his office in London. Then the weather calmed down.

Still, Mr. Muir-Wood notes that the insurance industry faces a different sort of risk: political action. “That is the biggest threat,” he said. When insurers canceled policies and raised premiums in Florida in 2006, politicians jumped on them. “Insurers in Florida,” he said, “became Public Enemy No. 1.”

And that’s the best hope for those concerned about climate change: that global warming isn’t just devastating for society, but also bad for business.

E-mail: eporter@nytimes.com; Twitter: @portereduardo
1185. LargoFl
Quoting 1179. ACSeattle:
This is, more or less, a science blog. Science is observing nature and attempting to develope explainations of those observations. In science, observation rules. That is, any explaination that does not adequately account for what is observed must be discarded, no matter how attractive that explaination may be. So, Largo, my question to you is: what would you have to observe for you to change your position on AGW?
nothing I do not believe global warming is a danger that we need to raise taxes and costs to prevent..im sorry if people take offense, the earth has warmed many times in its history and i dont see any excerption here,its been 5 degree's celcius warmer before and the earth is still here..now an end to this current interglacial period would turn all our lives upside down, maybe even ending human history..a BIG difference in dangers..wh
Quoting 1180. Bluestorm5:


Yup. Treated TA13 like a child. Didn't take long for mods to hit him with ban hammer.


Oh please it wasn't that big of a deal.
Quoting 1178. ricderr:
LMAO.....scotty....did you get banned again last night?......who would have thunk it


Yep just like countless others got as well.
1188. ricderr
Yep just like countless others got as well






well....just don't let em ban you for days on end...who would we have to pick on????
Quoting 1188. ricderr:
Yep just like countless others got as well






well....just don't let em ban you for days on end...who would we have to pick on????


LOL! Well I take it like a champ. I think you all are amazing. Lots of different personalities but that's what makes this blog tick.

From JB

We're not Dead Yet for NE White Christmas
December 19 12:44 PM

The last hot shot ended with snow in the mid and n atlantic states and so it may be again. The GFS is hinting, the Canadian more, that a "sneaky wave" develops Christmas eve day and delivers snow where snow has fallen early this year.. And I think this has a shot. In fact it would fit with what this pattern is up too. When you have islands of warm in a sea of cold, you look for these kind of things to have a shot

120


132


144


The return of winter is now plainly seen on modeling.. so while this does wipe out snow in the east, it wont be long before its back. The major winter event in the plains also is a magnet for cold coming. The Natural Gas Draw numbers today WAS AN ALL TIME RECORD! Given it occurred at a time of the year when the weather is not the coldest on average, it speaks volumes as to what we just went through. Problem is, it may be coming again

Here is what I told my clients, who with the exception of this 5 day warm up and the one before the recent cold hit, both of which emboldened merchants of mild to believe the pattern was not as cold, leading to opportunity if won was positioned right, have been positioned a step between the worst case for cold ( that did happen for about 10 days) and what was before hand positioned that seemed to simply look for warmth:

This was not a bearish run to say the least and is really a sum of my worst fears

When I look at this map I begin to wonder will Pinellas County be around a 100 years from now? Perhaps LargoFL this would change your viewpoint? It certainly would change mine. And goes without saying that it takes seeing to believing for some. Just part of human nature. The day this area is hit by a major hurricane will be a dark day. I can't fathom the destruction and environmental disaster that would come from a storm of this magnitude.

1191. ricderr
Just part of human nature. The day this area is hit by a major hurricane will be a dark day.








cat 5 hits tampa first storm of the season.....just as i predict with all of them
1192. cynyc2
Quoting 1185. LargoFl:
nothing I do not believe global warming is a danger that we need to raise taxes and costs to prevent..im sorry if people take offense, the earth has warmed many times in its history and i dont see any excerption here,its been 5 degree's celcius warmer before and the earth is still here..now an end to this current interglacial period would turn all our lives upside down, maybe even ending human history..a BIG difference in dangers..wh
People take offense because your spamming the board with crap and acting like a common troll...
thanks for that, it is my dads christmas cruise, it might be a little rainy, but that is ok,, he is 73 and he will have fun!!!!!!
Before and After Cyclone Nargis. I understand that the waters recede and all, but think about the life threatening diseases that come around from standing water and what happens when ocean water mixes with water from chemical plants. I have a feeling we will be seeing more pictures like this in the future.

Quoting 1186. StormTrackerScott:


Oh please it wasn't that big of a deal.

All I got to say for you is to grow up.

I'm not going to discuss this anymore.


1196. bappit
From Houston Galveston discussion:

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY WRAP UP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARDS AND EJECT OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE LOW TO GAIN A NEGATIVE TILT TO IT. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE MORE FAVORABLE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF... GFS... CANADIAN... AND NAM 12 ALL PUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE RRQ. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE. 30 KTS OR GREATER OF SFC TO 1KM SHEAR (SRH ~220 M2/S2) CAN BE FOUND IN MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH MODEST CAPE VALUES. WHAT REMAINS TO BE IN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DRY AIR AND CAPPING SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL HAVE. ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE BY FAR THE MOST MOIST WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.00" IN THE IAH FORECAST SOUNDING SATURDAY EVENING. THE NAM 12 AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 1.60". BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A DRY LAYER AROUND THE 700 MB AREA. AS OF NOW THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TO GREAT FOR STORM FORMATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO ERODE THE CAP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IN GENERAL MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE MID- LEVEL COOLING EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH THE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH THIS MIGHT BE TOUGH. MODEL QPF FIELDS HAVE ALSO BEEN HINTING AT A SECONDARY QPF BULLS EYE OUT AHEAD OF A MAIN LINE. THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM DISCRETE CELLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. GIVEN THE ABOVE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE. THE DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH WIND DAMAGE. THE MAIN LINE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE LINE MIGHT HAVE TROUBLE HOLDING TOGETHER IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE CAP WILL BE STRONGER BUT WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO HELP NARROW THESE FINE DETAILS DOWN. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DO END UP GOING LINEAR. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE SPC HAS NOW INCLUDED SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3.
Quoting 1191. ricderr:
Just part of human nature. The day this area is hit by a major hurricane will be a dark day.








cat 5 hits tampa first storm of the season.....just as i predict with all of them
Trust me Ric when I was younger and Charley was approaching I stayed home and braced for the storm. It never came to Tampa, but contrary to what I was saying earlier this season about staying behind for a major hurricane. I think seeing charts like this and real pictures of the aftermath is more than enough to convince me to evacuate.
That mass of snow in the plains has grown since this morning.
Quoting 1197. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Trust me Ric when I was younger and Charley was approaching I stayed home and braced for the storm. It never came to Tampa, but contrary to what I was saying earlier this season about staying behind for a major hurricane. I think seeing charts like this and real pictures of the aftermath is more than enough to convince me to evacuate.


Charley was pretty wild to look at on GR2Analyst

1200. Dakster
Quoting 1198. FunnelVortex:
That mass of snow in the plains has grown since this morning.


It's gonna be an awesome ski season...
Quoting 1199. Bluestorm5:


Charley was pretty wild to look at on GR2Analyst



Charley was small in size, but it sure was intense.
Quoting 1195. Bluestorm5:

All I got to say for you is to grow up.

I'm not going to discuss this anymore.




again it wasn't that big of a deal. However it is alright for you to insult Chucktown right? Double standard? Also please don't discuss anymore as you can take this to my e-mail and we can hash it out there.


Anyways.

White Christmas for NYC. Well see.

1203. ricderr
I think seeing charts like this and real pictures of the aftermath is more than enough to convince me to evacuate.




i've ridden through 4 hurricanes myself......not in favor of 5
Quoting 1203. ricderr:
I think seeing charts like this and real pictures of the aftermath is more than enough to convince me to evacuate.




i've ridden through 4 hurricanes myself......not in favor of 5


Which hurricanes? I've been thru Erin, Charley, Frances, & Jeanne. Charley was not a good experience being without power for 19 days. It took 6 days just to clear all the downed trees out of my complex.
Quoting 1200. Dakster:


It's gonna be an awesome ski season...


Yeah, but I ain't naming the system. The trough behind it looks like it may be worthy of a name by Saturday or Sunday when it turns into this.



Hm, its weaker this run.
Good Day Peeps, 55.4F here this AM (10:05PST) no rain as of yet but there is some in the area. They said on the Los Angeles News that if they don't get any rain they will have the lowest rainfall total for the year since record keeping began in the 1880's. they are slightly under 4" Monthly rainfall at the local airport is .12 and yearly is 2.61... we are lower here than L.A.
1207. ARiot
Quoting 1117. NCstu:
Thanks. Great info, but not good news. I saw on another blog about the tundra melting and it is certainly alarming. Final questions of the day: why was there a hiatus and why didn't the scientific community see it coming?

I have seen articles claiming that many models did see it coming. I have also read that the hiatus is insignificant relative to the overall trend. All the same, I come back to the annoying comment, "if we can't predict the next twenty years, how can we be sure about the next hundred years"


A good place to get links on the articles in peer-reviewed journals, in an easy to read format is here

There has been no haitus.

In terms of models or "predictions," the way I view it is pretty simple.

We know the climate responds to forcing. We know man's activity is a climate force. Determining exactly how much anthropogenic forcing will change the climate is a matter for scientific debates. When you model it over time (decades) you get various estimates based on values assigned to climate forcing.

Healthy skepticism is vital. However, prior to my understanding of AGW, I didn't think it (AGW) was possible. At some point, I realized that I readily accepted other scientific theory (like Evolution, Big Bang, Etc.), and AGW is no different and just as empirical. (So I wasn't being an honest skeptic (healthy). I was denying the evidence presented by thousands of really smart dudes from all over the world)

Again, the real discourse is in what, if anything, can be or should be done about it (see comments about taxes or liberals or something).

That doesn't concern me since I know two things:
- We will "burn it all" to preserve our way of life
- I understand the human discount rate (hyperbolic discounting)

1208. LargoFl
Quoting 1192. cynyc2:
People take offense because your spamming the board with crap and acting like a common troll...
actually im one of the most active everyday posters in here,and if ice age is what i prefer to talk about then so be it..period
You might want to look back, Scott... I made no childish insult last night to Chucktown. I simply said I'm surprised he still denies AGW despite living in Charleston with the tide issues. I said I would not comment any further, but your false claim force me to defend myself on blog this one time.
1210. NCstu
Quoting 1208. LargoFl:
actually im one of the most active everyday posters in here,and if ice age is what i prefer to talk about then so be it..period
I'm not quite following your ice age argument. Are you saying that it's coming and it will be really bad or are you saying that eventually it will come (like hundreds or thousands of years from now) and it will be worse than global warming?
1211. LargoFl
I used to think this was one friendly blog, many viewpoints on differing subjects and not too much fighting and name calling which makes for a good active blog..but im seeing something here..unless your with the majority here..your posts are hmmm.."trolling"??..well you can Keep your GW..i really dont Care about it at all..poof
Quoting 1210. NCstu:
I'm not quite following your ice age argument. Are you saying that it's coming and it will be really bad or are you saying that eventually it will come (like hundreds or thousands of years from now) and it will be worse than global warming?


I've been on the blog with Largo for longer than you have, and I can tell you that he is calling for a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario.
Quoting 1211. LargoFl:
I used to think this was one friendly blog, many viewpoints on differing subjects and not too much fighting and name calling which makes for a good active blog..but im seeing something here..unless your with the majority here..your posts are hmmm.."trolling"??..well you can Keep your GW..i really dont Care about it at all..poof
It's just a typical offseason discussion. It'll return back to normal with more snowstorms, thunderstorms, etc in January and February. I don't like the GW discussion either, even though I believe it now.
1214. Dakster
Quoting 1206. PedleyCA:
Good Day Peeps, 55.4F here this AM (10:05PST) no rain as of yet but there is some in the area. They said on the Los Angeles News that if they don't get any rain they will have the lowest rainfall total for the year since record keeping began in the 1880's. they are slightly under 4" Monthly rainfall at the local airport is .12 and yearly is 2.61... we are lower here than L.A.


Hot here today. 80F.
1215. VR46L
Quoting 1186. StormTrackerScott:


Oh please it wasn't that big of a deal.


You too ???

Seems like the taser was out alot last night

I did my lines as punishment over in NC blog ....


Anyway AMARA looks good



LargoFL I respect your posts and think you are nice guy. In know way do I think you are troll. Why people think you are a troll because you have a differing viewpoint on GW is beyond me. Keep doing what you do and if you don't like a comment you can opt to ignore that user or flag out their post and then the mods will take care of it.
I've always wondered what would have happened had Charley actually gone to Tampa as they were predicting. No doubt it would have become a Category 5, probably a 170-175mph one at the rate of intensification it was achieving. Just look at how much more shallow warm water Charley would have traversed before landfall.
Quoting 1217. CybrTeddy:
I've always wondered what would have happened had Charley actually gone to Tampa as they were predicting, no doubt it would have become a Category 5, probably a 170-175mph one at the rate of intensification it was achieving.


If it went to Tampa then you can just kiss the area goodbye.
1219. Dakster
Sad News. Al Goldstein died today.

I wonder if his tombstone will be a big middle finger.
Quoting 1196. bappit:
From Houston Galveston discussion:

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY WRAP UP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARDS AND EJECT OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE LOW TO GAIN A NEGATIVE TILT TO IT. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE MORE FAVORABLE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF... GFS... CANADIAN... AND NAM 12 ALL PUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE RRQ. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE. 30 KTS OR GREATER OF SFC TO 1KM SHEAR (SRH ~220 M2/S2) CAN BE FOUND IN MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH MODEST CAPE VALUES. WHAT REMAINS TO BE IN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DRY AIR AND CAPPING SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL HAVE. ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE BY FAR THE MOST MOIST WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.00" IN THE IAH FORECAST SOUNDING SATURDAY EVENING. THE NAM 12 AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 1.60". BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A DRY LAYER AROUND THE 700 MB AREA. AS OF NOW THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TO GREAT FOR STORM FORMATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO ERODE THE CAP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IN GENERAL MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE MID- LEVEL COOLING EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH THE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH THIS MIGHT BE TOUGH. MODEL QPF FIELDS HAVE ALSO BEEN HINTING AT A SECONDARY QPF BULLS EYE OUT AHEAD OF A MAIN LINE. THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM DISCRETE CELLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. GIVEN THE ABOVE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE. THE DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH WIND DAMAGE. THE MAIN LINE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE LINE MIGHT HAVE TROUBLE HOLDING TOGETHER IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE CAP WILL BE STRONGER BUT WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO HELP NARROW THESE FINE DETAILS DOWN. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DO END UP GOING LINEAR. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE SPC HAS NOW INCLUDED SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3.


It feels like something is on its way.

Current conditions in Pflugerville, TX: 74 degrees with 67% RH, winds gusting out of the Southwest to 20 MPH and the pressure has been dropping gradually since about midnight. Needless to say the conditions feel more like April than December right now.
Quoting 1215. VR46L:


You too ???

Seems like the taser was out alot last night

I did my lines as punishment over in NC blog ....


Anyway AMARA looks good





Just about everyone on the blog last night was letting it rip even the mods in some cases. It was like Wednesday Night fight night on here.
I actually think FL is gonna get a cane in 2014. And if not, then almost for sure in 2015.

It starting to get really weird going this long without one.

It's weird to think that when the last one hit in 2005, people that are in high school and college now were just kids..

It's really incredible how long this lull has been.
I'm dreaming of a white Christmas.
Quoting 1222. opal92nwf:
I actually think FL is gonna get a cane in 2014. And if not, then almost for sure in 2015.

It starting to get really weird going this long without one.


Maybe the canes got sick and tired of going after such an easy target that they decided to push their limits and try to make their way up the east coast instead.
Quoting 1225. FunnelVortex:


Maybe the canes got sick and tired of going after such an easy target that they decided to push their limits and try to make their way up the east coast instead.

Yes, and it's amazing how many canes the East Coast has had.

4 years in a row there was one that was close or a hit (off the top of my head)

2009: Bill
2010: Earl
2011: Irene
2012: Sandy

And then the rest have been in MS west.
Seems like the canes have been going anywhere but FL since 2005.

Although Beryl was a close call and Fay wasn't too far from hurricane strength at landfall.
I wanted to share this amazing visualization of real-time winds:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobari c/1000hPa/orthographic=-113.62,41.57,508

One of the interesting features currently illustrated is how disruptive the Hawaiian Island are; note how the leeward 'wind shadow' extends hundreds of miles out to sea.


54.9F and the rain is nowhere near me. Not a big surprise there.
Quoting 1227. opal92nwf:

Yes, and it's amazing how many canes the East Coast has had.

4 years in a row there was one that was close or a hit (off the top of my head)

2009: Bill
2010: Earl
2011: Irene
2012: Sandy

And then the rest have been in MS west.
Seems like the canes have been going anywhere but FL since 2005.

Although Beryl was a close call and Fay wasn't too far from hurricane strength at landfall.


I think it may have been one breifly. There is not much difference between a 70 MPH TS and a Cat 1 anyways.
Quoting 1222. opal92nwf:
I actually think FL is gonna get a cane in 2014. And if not, then almost for sure in 2015.

It starting to get really weird going this long without one.

It's weird to think that when the last one hit in 2005, people that are in high school and college now were just kids..

It's really incredible how long this lull has been.
opal.......Tell me now....You have no idea about that do you?
I kinda got bits and pieces...But I really enjoy Largo ...He does nothing wrong and keeps us all informed, usually when we need to be informed...Thanks Largo
Quoting 1211. LargoFl:
I used to think this was one friendly blog, many viewpoints on differing subjects and not too much fighting and name calling which makes for a good active blog..but im seeing something here..unless your with the majority here..your posts are hmmm.."trolling"??..well you can Keep your GW..i really dont Care about it at all..poof
Hang in there Largo, the majority is with you friend
1234. jpsb
Quoting 845. Birthmark:

I'll put to you the same challenge I put to Chucktown. Calculate what the Earth's temperature should be, based on solar output. Does that temperature differ from the observed temperature? If so, why? Thanks in advance.

Lol, a fools challenge. There is a lot more then "solar output" that determines the climate on Earth. Also "solar output" varies. Not to much in the visible but a fair amount in IR. Temperature is really an almost useless metric in this discussion since it varies wildly from one location to another. Calculations of a Global Average Temperature should be looked at with a great deal of sketisism as to it's accuracy. Just what the heck is an average global temperature?

Much more meaningful might be a value for the heat content in the oceans, land surface and atmosphere. However any one claiming they are able to determine that metric had better the able to show they have millions of instrument located just about everywhere.

When it comes to climate we are still just guessing, it is to chaotic a system to predict with certainty given our knowledge of the system and our current ability to determine the state of the system at any given time.
I too enjoy Largo's input on weather and current alerts, especially in our locality. However, if he, or anyone else for that matter, is going to make an argument for or against a matter of science (such as climate change), he should be prepared to back that up with evidence and have a hearty discussion. There is nothing wrong with that. To say someone is unfriendly because they disagree with you, even strongly, is dishonest.

A lot of us are passionate about our planet and think there is substantial evidence to support belief in climate change. We will defend that belief with evidence, and rightfully reject and ridicule pseudo-science and opinions offered on a whim.
Quoting 1235. SouthTampa:
I too enjoy Largo's input on weather and current alerts, especially in our locality. However, if he, or anyone else for that matter, is going to make an argument for or against a matter of science (such as climate change), he should be prepared to back that up with evidence and have a hearty discussion. There is nothing wrong with that. To say someone is unfriendly because they disagree with you, even strongly, is dishonest.

A lot of us are passionate about our planet and think there is substantial evidence to support belief in climate change. We will defend that belief with evidence, and rightfully reject and ridicule pseudo-science and opinions offered on a whim.
Tampa...We all have our own opinions...I have mine and Phil Robertson has his.. That's what makes the world go round...Glad we don't all think the same...That would be boring.
Quoting 1212. FunnelVortex:


I've been on the blog with Largo for longer than you have, and I can tell you that he is calling for a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario.




Ahem...bs.
1238. ricderr
Which hurricanes? I've been thru Erin, Charley, Frances, & Jeanne


i was in irene in '99....got to see the eye of both jeanne and frances....and then wilma
1240. dabirds
We'll be close to your yearly total this weekend Ped, hope ya at least get a little. Hope ours comes in long and slow, any bursts will def cause flooding. Major melt going at moment, though looks like temp rise has slowed drastically as heavier cloud cover moves in.

Very close to forecast high of 52 w/ 48 dew pt, pressure continues to drop, 29.79", S winds still blowing 8-22.
Braggin' about the storms we have been in again... I bet nobody here was in the Salem witch hunts in 1692 and 1693... I was there...Still have the scars to prove it..
Quoting 1185. LargoFl:
nothing I do not believe global warming is a danger that we need to raise taxes and costs to prevent..im sorry if people take offense, the earth has warmed many times in its history and i dont see any excerption here,its been 5 degree's celcius warmer before and the earth is still here..now an end to this current interglacial period would turn all our lives upside down, maybe even ending human history..a BIG difference in dangers..wh
Largo, stop worrying so much.

From Nature reports climate change: Carbon is Forever. Link

University of Chicago oceanographer David Archer, who led the study with Caldeira and others, is credited with doing more than anyone to show how long CO2 from fossil fuels will last in the atmosphere. As he puts it in his new book The Long Thaw, "The lifetime of fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere is a few centuries, plus 25 percent that lasts essentially forever. The next time you fill your tank, reflect upon this"3.

"The climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge," Archer writes. "Longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste, far longer than the age of human civilization so far."

The effects of carbon dioxide on the atmosphere drop off so slowly that unless we kick our "fossil fuel addiction", to use George W. Bush's phrase, we could force Earth out of its regular pattern of freezes and thaws that has lasted for more than a million years. "If the entire coal reserves were used," Archer writes, "then glaciation could be delayed for half a million years."
-------------------

BTW the last time earth was 5C warmer than today, there were no humans here - the only mammals were little shrew size critters. The concern is not about the earth: it will be here. The question is whether humans will be - with or without civilization.
1243. jpsb
Quoting 1210. NCstu:
I'm not quite following your ice age argument. Are you saying that it's coming and it will be really bad or are you saying that eventually it will come (like hundreds or thousands of years from now) and it will be worse than global warming?

The glacification of the Earth would be vastly worse then a little warming. In fact glacification could make life extinct on Earth. And we know for a fact that glacification happens. Fortunately the entire Earth has not frozen over yet. (Well maybe 600my ago see Snow Ball Earth). But not recently. It has been calculated that if the ice sheets get as far south as Texas were would be no stopping their advance. Game over for mankind and everything else.

We are in a interglacial warm period, interglacial are relatively short 10000-20000 year or so. The next glacification is due any time now.
1244. VR46L
Quoting 1241. PalmBeachWeather:
Braggin' about the storms we have been in again... I bet nobody here was in the Salem witch hunts in 1692 and 1693... I was there...Still have the scars to prove it..


LMAO !!! Good One

Remind me not to get on your bad side .


Anyway

Back on topic



1246. JRRP
1247. jpsb
Quoting 1242. FLwolverine:
Largo, stop worrying so much.

From Nature reports climate change: Carbon is Forever. Link



BTW the last time earth was 5C warmer than today, there were no humans here - the only mammals were little shrew size critters. The concern is not about the earth: it will be here. The question is whether humans will be - with or without civilization.


I wonder if that has anything to do with the large to huge predators roaming around the planet at that time?



1248. SLU
Quoting 1246. JRRP:


Some nice weather in about one week.
A sunny mild afternoon. Frosty this morning. From 32 to 68 here today!
Quoting 1236. PalmBeachWeather:
Tampa...We all have our own opinions...I have mine and Phil Robertson has his.. That's what makes the world go round...Glad we don't all think the same...That would be boring.
I agree, PBW. I do, however, believe that opinions formed on reason, logic, and evidence to be much more valuable than those formed in absence of such. I always feel the burden of evidence is on the claimant; if Largo thinks an ice age is coming, let's hear why and discuss the merits.
1251. NCstu
Quoting 1243. jpsb:

The glacification of the Earth would be vastly worse then a little warming. In fact glacification could make life extinct on Earth. And we know for a fact that glacification happens. Fortunately the entire Earth has not frozen over yet. (Well maybe 600my ago see Snow Ball Earth). But not recently. It has been calculated that is the ice sheets get as far south as Texas were would be not stopping their advance. Game over for mankind and everything else.

We are in a interglacial warm period, interglacial are relatively short 10000-20000 year or so. The next glacification is due any time now.
how do you know that we are due for glaciation?
I don't like 60's and 70's in December at all :(.Especially when I see "near record warmth" in the forecast.We can't achieve a good snow in D.C but we can achieve record warmth.WTF.
Link
Quoting 1176. StormTrackerScott:


How's that PDO holding up? J/K -87 to -11 in a month is pretty impressive.

And completely normal.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BRUCE, CATEGORY THREE (03U)
2:26 AM WST December 20 2013
============================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce, Category Three (961 hPa) located at 13.0S 90.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 13.5S 88.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS 13.9S 86.3E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS 15.8S 81.6E - 105 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS 19.3S 78.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4)

Additional Information
=========================
The system continues to intensify with a broad eye structure.

A steady west southwest motion continues under the influence of a mid level ridge to the south. There is strong model agreement for this motion to be maintained for the next few days.

Shear is expected to remain low for the next few days and oceanic heat content remains suitably elevated. Intensity is forecast to proceed at a standard rate in the medium term. Forecast maximum intensity is capped at present to 105 knots 10 minute mean.

***This will be the final tropical cyclone advisory from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth**

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
CYCLONE TROPICAL AMARA (02-20132014)
22:30 PM RET December 19 2013
============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Amara (960 hPa) located at 18.0S 66.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
========================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 135 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 18.6S 65.1E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 19.3S 64.3E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS 21.4S 65.3E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 22.0S 66.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
During the past six hours, the system has slightly intensified, closing then consolidation of the eye wall in the western semi-circle on microwave data 1351z and 1550z, with cooling of the central dense overcast on infrared imagery. CIMMS data shows always two upper level outflow channels. Persistence of the channel in the north for the next 12 hours will temporally limiting in a first time the weakening due to sea surface temperature.

Up to Friday, Amara may keep on moving generally south westward to west southwestward under the steering influence of the mid- tropospheric subtropical high pressures existing southeast. From Saturday, the subtropical ridge is expected to weaken and a high to mid-level trough is expected to move in the south of the system. The system is forecast to recurve southward to southeastward , and begin to be weaken, undergoing the strengthening wind shear ahead of the upper level trough

From Sunday, the weakening system is forecast to slow down under a weak steering flow in the mid to low troposphere. At the end of the forecast period, the weakened system should go back westward with the steering flow of the subtropical anticyclone rebuilding south of the Mascarenes islands.
Quoting 1253. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And completely normal.


Highest since May and 2nd highest since 2010. Normal as in trending toward El-Nino you mean. If you ask me it's the absence of El-Nino that's what has dried out the atmosphere across the Atlantic Basin leading to very few hurricanes. I am very interested in seeing how we fare next year during El-Nino as eventhough I am going with 11 named storms the ones that form could be very intense. Bottomline next years hurricane season looks interesting.
Quoting 1256. DonnieBwkGA:
Sweatin' on the solstice?
Haha yeah.Might as well get out my sun screen and short sleeves.It's that type of disgusting weather.I like this weather in April..Not december.
Quoting 1257. washingtonian115:
Haha yeah.Might as well get out my sun screen and short sleeves.It's that type of disgusting weather.I like this weather in April..Not december.
Washington, DC on Sunday.

Sunday
Chance of a Thunderstorm
72F | 50F
Chance of T-storms
50% chance of precipitation

Looks like FL. avg. for Dec.
1259. Dakster
Quoting 1222. opal92nwf:
I actually think FL is gonna get a cane in 2014. And if not, then almost for sure in 2015.

It starting to get really weird going this long without one.

It's weird to think that when the last one hit in 2005, people that are in high school and college now were just kids..

It's really incredible how long this lull has been.


Only Cane we have gotten lately is the type that grows in fields. (Sugarcane)

I am also interested in hearing about research being done on how if at all the absence of El-Nino has caused this down turn in hurricanes as the atmosphere has been really dry for about 2 years across our basin.


56.0 and not getting any rain. Go figure....
Quoting 1260. StormTrackerScott:
I am also interested in hearing about research being done on how if at all the absence of El-Nino has caused this down turn in hurricanes as the atmosphere has been really dry for about 2 years across our basin.
Atmospherically speaking this years hurricane season behaved like an El-Nino. Somehow though the temperatures offshore of Ecuador said otherwise. Maybe Earth's oscillations has something to do with it? Not sure which one to blame or it could be a combination of a few?
1263. ricderr
Highest since May and 2nd highest since 2010. Normal as in trending toward El-Nino you mean.


the problem with your statement is that there have been other months where the values changed even more significantly month to month and then reversed the following month....so...your statement may or may not be correct but using that chart as validation does not work
Quoting 1261. PedleyCA:


56.0 and not getting any rain. Go figure....
That's strange isn't normal to get more rainfall on avg. in the winter than it is in the summer on the West Coast of the US?
Quoting 1255. StormTrackerScott:


Highest since May and 2nd highest since 2010. Normal as in trending toward El-Nino you mean. If you ask me it's the absence of El-Nino that's what has dried out the atmosphere across the Atlantic Basin leading to very few hurricanes. I am very interested in seeing how we fare next year during El-Nino as eventhough I am going with 11 named storms the ones that form could be very intense. Bottomline next years hurricane season looks interesting.

No I mean normal as in typical. Large jumps [in both dorections] when dealing with the PDO are common. It has nothing to do with his so-called trend towards El Niño. The PDO influences the ENSO, not the other way around.
Quoting 1252. washingtonian115:
I don't like 60's and 70's in December at all :(.Especially when I see "near record warmth" in the forecast.We can't achieve a good snow in D.C but we can achieve record warmth.WTF.
Link
Don't worry Washi January and February will live up to its titles!


So the Arctic Oscillation affects the North Atlantic Oscillation?
Quoting 1266. Climate175:
Don't worry Washi January and February will live up to its titles!
We'll see about that.It's to late for a white Christmas.
Snow is a coming... Jan here we go ! Lets go ! PS. Washi Models have been showing a snowy coastal system for us Dec 31- Jan 1 time period.
Sunday's record warmest low for DC is 49 degrees. That's gonna be broken. If it's gonna be warm might as well have a low of 60 and break the monthly record.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1272. ARiot
Quoting 1243. jpsb:

The glacification of the Earth would be vastly worse then a little warming. In fact glacification could make life extinct on Earth. And we know for a fact that glacification happens. Fortunately the entire Earth has not frozen over yet. (Well maybe 600my ago see Snow Ball Earth). But not recently. It has been calculated that if the ice sheets get as far south as Texas were would be no stopping their advance. Game over for mankind and everything else.

We are in a interglacial warm period, interglacial are relatively short 10000-20000 year or so. The next glacification is due any time now.


The published science on that topic says you are wrong.

Here's a summary of why, in everyday language, with links to explore if you decide to read where it is atttributed.

I do agree, however, that a significant global average temperature swing of 3-6C warmer or 3-6 degrees cooler would significantly impact modern life and make our current population projections hard to sustain in what we consider "modern" comfort.

Quoting 1262. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Atmospherically speaking this years hurricane season behaved like an El-Nino. Somehow though the temperatures offshore of Ecuador said otherwise. Maybe Earth's oscillations has something to do with it? Not sure which one to blame or it could be a combination of a few?


something was definitely off as we should have had a very active season but dry air, Saharian Dust, and stability really killed our season. Typically after an El-nino we have a very active season but the lack of El-nino for 4 years may have played a role this year.
1274. NCstu
Quoting 1273. StormTrackerScott:


something was definitely off as we should have had a very active season but dry air, Saharian Dust, and stability really killed our season. Typically after an El-nino we have a very active season but the lack of El-nino for 4 years may have played a role this year.
I think you're a little too hung up on the nino.
Quoting 1264. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That's strange isn't normal to get more rainfall on avg. in the winter than it is in the summer on the West Coast of the US?


We should have a lot more than we do and the fall/winter stuff isn't showing up yet.
1276. skipl
Good counter-point.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/19/claim-novem ber-2013-is-the-warmest-ever-but-will-the-real-nov ember-2013-temperature-please-stand-up/
Quoting 1276. skipl:
Good counter-point.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/19/claim-novem ber-2013-is-the-warmest-ever-but-will-the-real-nov ember-2013-temperature-please-stand-up/

Wow. No. Not even close. In fact, that post's central point is based upon an elementary mistake in understanding temperature anomalies.

They are claiming that different temperature records show a different anomaly, and thus, it may not be the warmest November on record. By itself, the claim that each temperature dataset does not always have the same years as record warm, record cold, etc is a true claim. This is due to very straight-forward reasons, including different % coverage of the globe, different elevations being measured (surface vs. lower troposphere), different interpolation techniques, to name a few.

But you have to read further. They claim that it's the different base periods that cause some datasets to show warmest and others to not show warmest.

The difference here is that NCDC is using the “20th Century Average” where the other sources are using accepted 30 year climatology periods. Choosing that period can make a big difference in the outcome.

Huh? What? No. The different base periods do not change trends. The different base periods do not change whether or not a year is record coldest or record warmest. In fact, they do not change the relative order of years vs. temperature in any way.

All the author has done is grab anomalies from different baselines and, rather than comparing them correctly to their own rankings within that dataset, compared them to other datasets with other baselines and other calculation techniques. That is a big no-no.
Quoting 1208. LargoFl:
actually im one of the most active everyday posters in here,and if ice age is what i prefer to talk about then so be it..period
Good grief. I can't believe we are back here attacking each other on personality instead of on arguments... People, if you disagree with someone else, please refrain from calling them names! The other day it was Pat, now it's Largo. None of the namecallers are making the blog any better by their behaviour, either. I don't agree with Largo's viewpoint. So. The. *$@!. What.
I have to call him names and get all up in arms? Come on people.

Explain your viewpoint. Then agree to disagree. We can be better than this petty display suggests.

Sheesh.
Interesting post by Dr. Masters. I noticed he didn't mention the antarctic sea ice extent. While he probably doesn't need more data to make his point, showing how that is also trending negative just like the arctic would in my opinion make for a more conclusive (and complete) demonstration of recent evidence of AGW.
Quoting 1273. StormTrackerScott:


something was definitely off as we should have had a very active season but dry air, Saharian Dust, and stability really killed our season. Typically after an El-nino we have a very active season but the lack of El-nino for 4 years may have played a role this year.


Steady feed of dry air from South America directly into the MDR killed the season. It's a rather new phenomenon, obviously.
Remember the tropical storm that disintegrated when it hit Texas during the drought? Same deal, different place.
OK... recorded history... what is that to what really happened in the PAST! Liberals just want to hear themselves over and over and over..and TAKE CONTROL! Give us a break! blllaaaa blaaaaa blaaaaaa..... sound like Al Gore all over again! CLIMATE CHANGES FOLKS! get over it..
1283. ARiot
wrong thread