WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Earth Has its Hottest Summer and Hottest August on Record

By: Jeff Masters 4:00 PM GMT on September 17, 2015

August 2015 was Earth's hottest August on record, and the Northern Hemisphere summer period of June-July-August was the hottest summer since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Thursday. NASA rated August 2015 as the 2nd warmest August on record, a scant 0.01°C from tying August 2014's record mark. August 2015's warmth makes the year-to-date period (January - August) the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. NOAA said that August 2015 was the sixth month in 2015 to break its monthly temperature record, joining February, March, May, June, and July. August 2015 tied with January 2007 for the third warmest monthly departure from average of any of the 1628 months since records began in January 1880 (the record warmest departures occurred in February 2015 and March 2015). Over the oceans, August 2015 had the warmest departure from average of any month in the historical record (previous record: July 2015.) A potent El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific that crossed the threshold into the "strong" category in early July continues to intensify, and strong El Niño events release a large amount of heat to the atmosphere, typically boosting global temperatures by at least 0.1°C. This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, makes it extremely likely that 2015 will be Earth's second consecutive warmest year on record. The UK Met Office put out a press release earlier this week predicting that 2016 will continue to see record or near-record levels of global heat, and it is quite possible that Earth will see three consecutive years with record-breaking surface temperatures: 2014, 2015, and 2016.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for August 2015, the warmest August for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across South America and parts of Europe, Asia, and Africa. Record warmth was also over much of the world's oceans, including the waters surrounding Hawaii, where the warm waters are expected to cause a significant coral bleaching episode resulting in a large-scale die-off of coral. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .

Global satellite-measured temperatures in August 2015 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 3rd warmest in the 37-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The lowest 8 km of the atmosphere heats up dramatically in response to moderate to strong El Niño events, with a time lag of several months--as occurred during the El Niño events of 1998 and 2010, the only two years that had warmer August temperatures than 2015. Earth's lower atmosphere temperature will likely hit record levels by early 2016.



Two billion-dollar weather disasters in August 2015 in China
Two billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth last month, both in China, according to the August 2015 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield: Typhoon Chan-hom ($1.6 billion in damage) and flooding August 20 - 24 that caused $1.2 billion in damage. With fifteen billion-dollar weather disasters through August 2015, Earth is on pace for a below-average number of such disasters, compared to statistics from the past ten years.


Disaster 1. Typhoon Chan-hom made landfall about 80 mi south-southeast of Shanghai, China on August 11, killing 16 people and doing at least $1.5 billion in damage. The typhoon did another $100 million in damage to Guam, Japan, Taiwan, and Korea. In this image, we see people watching huge waves from Chan-hom pounding Wenling, in east China's Zhejiang province, on August 10, 2015. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 2. Heavy rainfall in China from August 20 - 24 killed 28 people and did $1.2 billion in damage. More than 238,000 residents were evacuated as floods and landslides destroyed 7,770 homes and damaged 35,100. In this picture, we see vehicles stranded on a flooded road in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China, on August 23, 2015, when 160.2 millimeters (6.31") hit the city. This was their heaviest daily rainfall since 1998, according to Changjiang Times. Image credit: ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images.

Most expensive disaster in Dominica's history
August 2015 also saw one nation experience its most expensive disaster in its history: the Caribbean island of Dominica (population 72,000), where Tropical Storm Erika unleashed a catastrophic deluge on August 27 that brought extreme flooding. The storm caused $612.7 million in damage to roads and bridges, $39.5 million in damage to the airport, and an additional $12 million in clean up costs (thanks go to David C. Adams of Thomson Reuters for this info.) Erika's total preliminary price tag of $675 million East Caribbean dollars, which is about $275 million U.S. dollars--not far from Dominica's annual GDP of $500 million. The storm will likely set the island back 20 years in development, Prime Minister Skerrit said. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, Dominica's previous most expensive disaster was the $175 million in damage from Hurricane Marilyn of 1995. Erika's death toll of at least 31 makes it the 3rd deadliest disaster in Dominica's history behind the 40 killed in 1979's Hurricane David and the 2,000 people killed in Dominica by The Dominican Republic Hurricane of 1930.


Video 1. Floodwaters rage through a street on Dominica island in the Caribbean on Thursday, August 27, 2015, after Tropical Storm Erika dumped 12+" of rain on the island.

Deadliest weather disaster of August 2015: Asian monsoon floods
The deadliest weather-related disaster of August 2015, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield, was the monsoon flooding during the first week of August that left more than 303 people dead in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan. At least 250,000 homes were damaged or destroyed by floodwaters and landslides in India, and 89,000 homes in Bangladesh.

However, an even deadlier disaster may have been the heat wave and wildfires that beset Central & Southern Europe and the Middle East. At least 109 direct heat deaths occurred in Egypt in August, and hundreds more indirect heat deaths (excess mortality) likely occurred in areas affected by the intense August heat.


Figure 2. A Pakistani army soldier drops a bag of relief food from an army helicopter to flood affected villagers in the Rajanpur district, in Punjab province, on August 6, 2015. A spokesman for Pakistan's National Disaster Management Agency said that 116 people had died and more than 850,000 people had been affected around the country by this year's monsoon floods. Image credit: SS MIRZA/AFP/Getty Images.

Arctic sea ice falls to 4th lowest August extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during August 2015 was the 4th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Sea ice extent likely reached its annual minimum extent on September 11, bottoming out at the 4th lowest extent on record.

Notable global heat and cold marks set for August 2015
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 52.5°C (126.5°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait, August 2
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -42.4°C (-44.3°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, August 28
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 42.5°C (108.5°F) at Villamontes, Bolivia, August 31
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -82.6°C (-116.7°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, August 27

Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in August 2015
Charlotte Amalie AP (U.S. Virgin Islands) max. 35.0°C August 1
Nihonmatsu (Japan) max. 38.0°C August 2
Ishikawa  (Japan) max.  37.5°C August 2
Chizu   (Japan) max. 36.9°C August 2
Higashishirakawa (Japan) max. 36.4°C August 3
Osmaniye (Turkey) max. 43.2°C August 3
Baku (Azerbaijan) max. 41.2°C August 4
Salahaddin (Iraq) max. 41.4°C August 4
Nemuro (Japan) max. 33.6°C August 5
Attoko (Japan) max. 34.9  August 5 
Ikeda (Japan) max. 37.1°C August 5
Nukanai (Japan) max. 36.7°C August 5
Kamisatsunai  (Japan) max. 34.6°C August 5
Sarebetsu (Japan) max. 37.1°C August 5
Taiki (Japan) max. 35.8°C August 5
Taneichi (Japan) max. 35.4°C August 5
Wakayanagi (Japan) max. 36.9°C August 5
Senmaya (Japan) max. 36.2°C August 5
Kashimadai (Japan) max. 35.8°C August 5
Esashi (Japan) max. 37.3°C August   5
Yanagawa (Japan) max. 39.7°C August 5
Funahiki (Japan) max. 34.9°C August  5
Ononimachi (Japan) max. 36.0°C August  5
Monte Rosa Obs. (Italy) max. 9.3°C August 5
Mont Blanc Obs. (Italy) max. 6.1°C August 6
Yoneyama (Japan) max. 36.3°C August  6
Shiogama (Japan) max. 35.8  August 6
Otawara  (Japan) max. 36.8  August 6
Ajiro (Japan) max.  36.8°C August 6
Kawamoto (Japan) max. 37.4°C August 6
Oasa (Japan) max. 35.1°C August 6
Chiba (Japan) max. 38.5°C August 7
Genoa (Italy) max. 38.5°C August 7
Albenga (Italy) max. 38.0°C August 7
Capo Mele (Italy) max. 37.0°C August 7
Strasbourg Airport  (France) max. 38.7°C August 7
Mergentheim (Germany) max. 40.2°C August 7
Mannheim (Germany) max. 39.8°C August 7
Lahr (Germany) max. 39.5°C August 7
Frankfurt City (Germany) max. 39.6°C August 7
Berlin Kaniswall (Germany) max. 38.9°C August 7
Ohringen (Germany) max. 38.9°C August 7
Wurzburg (Germany) max. 39.4°C August 7
Gorlitz (Germany) max. 37.9°C August 7
Plauen (Germany) max. 37.8°C August 7
Wasserkuppe (Germany) max. 32.4°C August 7
Usti nad Orlici (Czech Republic) max. 37.4°C August 7
Stara Boleslav (Czech Republic) max. 38.9°C August 7
Paseka (Czech Republic) max. 37.9°C August 7
Dosky (Czech Republic) max. 38.0°C August 7
As (Czech Republic) max. 34.9°C August 7
Harrachov (Czech Republic) max. 33.9°C August 7
Tuhan (Czech Republic) max. 38.6°C August 7
Javornik (Czech Republic) max. 37.5°C August 7
Krasne Udoli (Czech Republic) max. 35.2°C August 7
Rychnov nad Kneznou (Czech Republic) max. 36.8°C August 7
Wroclaw (Poland) max. 38.9  August 8
Prague Karlov (Czech Republic) max. 38.9°C August 8   
Tuhaň (Czech Republic) max. 38.8°C August  8
Pruhonice (Czech Republic) max. 38.7°C August  8
Ceska Lipa (Czech Republic) max. 38.6°C August  8
Javornik (Czech Republic) max. 38.2  August  8
Pribram (Czech Republic) max. 38.1°C August  8
Semcice (Czech Republic) max. 38.1°C August  8
Doksy (Czech Republic) max. 38.0°C August  8
Minsk (Belarus) max. 35.8°C August 8
Kaunas (Lithuania) max. 35.3°C August 8
Bajandaj (Russia) max. 35.8°C August 8
Kurume (Japan) max. 38.5°C August  8
Aso Otohime (Japan) max. 34.6  August 8
Hitoyoshi (Japan) max. 37.8°C August 8
Hong Kong Observatory (Hong Kong,China) max. 36.3°C August 8
Happy Valley (Hong Kong, China) max. 37.9°C August 8, New Territorial record high for Hong Kong
Hong Kong Int. Airport (Hong Kong,China) max. 37.7°C August 9
Trieste Airport (Italy) max. 37.8°C August 9
Brest (Belarus) max. 36.7°C August 9
Wamena (Indonesia) min. 4.5°C August 15
Sisian (Armenia) max. 36.2°C August 16
Vanadzor (Armenia) max. 36.1°C August 16
Ardebil (Iran) max. 40.5°C August 16
Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic) max. 37.2°C August 27
Jerusalen (Colombia) max. 41.0°C August 29



New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
As of September 14, 2015, twelve nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history in 2015, and two (Israel and Cyprus) set all-time cold temperature records. For comparison, only two nations or territories set all-time heat records in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records held by any year is nineteen in 2010. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page. Here are the all-time national or territorial heat and cold records set so far in 2015:

Anguilla set its national heat record on September 12, when the mercury hit 33.8°C (92.8°F) at The Valley Airport.
The U.S. Virgin Islands set their national heat record on September 10, when the mercury hit 35.6°C (96°F) at Charlotte Amalie Airport. Note: the unofficial record listed by NOAA for the U.S. Virgin Islands is 99°F at the Charlotte Amalie Airport in 1988, 1994, and 1996. Mr. Herrera has researched the history of temperature measurements in the islands, and found that data taken at this airport was generally reliable after 1998 and before 1972. Between 1972 to 1998, the data was seriously flawed, with minimum temperatures up to 20°F from the real temperature. There is one other reliable station at the St. Croix Airport, with good data back to 1992. The other dozen or so stations in the islands have data of poor quality.
Hong Kong set its national heat record on August 9, when the mercury hit 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Happy Valley.
Germany set a new national heat record of 40.3°C (104.5°F) twice this year: on July 5 and August 7, both at the Kitzingen station in Bavaria.
Vietnam tied its national heat record of 42.7°C (108.9°F) at Con Cuong on May 30.
Palau tied its national heat record of 34.4°C (94.0°F) at Koror Airport on May 14.
Venezuela set a new national heat record of 43.6°C (110.5°F) at Coro on April 29.
Laos tied its national heat record of 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Thakhek on April 20.
Ghana set a new national heat record of 43.3°C (109.9°F) at Navrongo on April 10. This is the third time this year Ghana has tied or set a new all-time heat record.
Cocos Islands (Australian territory) tied their all-time heat record with 32.8°C (91.0°F) on April 8.
Equatorial Guinea set a new national heat record of 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Bata on March 17.
Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.5°C (95.9°F) on January 19 at Futuna Airport.

Israel set a new national cold record of -14.2°C (6.4°F) at Merom Golan on January 10.
Cyprus set a new national cold record for an inhabited place of -10.7°C (12.7°F) at Prodromos on January 9 (and also a new cold record for an uninhabited place of -12.0°C at the new mountain station of Troodos Square; unofficial readings in the past were as low as -13°C, though).

Special Mentions:
Antarctica set a new heat record for its mainland of 17.5°C (63.5°F) at Esperanza Base on March 24. Previous record: 17.4°C (63.3°F) at Marambio Base, set the previous day. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has appointed a committee to study this event and determine if this represents an official record for the continent. Note that this is a record for mainland Antarctica, not a territorial or continental record. The all-time maximum record for the continent and territory of Antarctica is 19.8°C (67.6°F) on January 30, 1982, in Signy Island, South Orkney, an island group located about 450 miles northeast of the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, the northernmost portion of mainland Antarctica. Geologically, the South Orkney are on the Antarctic plate, and politically, they are part of Antarctica. This record was improperly listed as a territorial record for Antarctica in May's global summary.

Switzerland had its highest reliably measured temperature on record in Geneva on July 7, when the mercury hit 103.5°F (39.7°C). The only higher temperature ever measured in the country was a 106.7°F (41.5°C) reading on August 11, 2003 at Grono. As reported at the Swiss news site swissinfo.ch, this old record was achieved "using an old measurement technique of weather huts, which generally recorded temperatures a few degrees higher than modern instruments." Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera agrees that this year's 39.7°C reading in Geneva is the highest reliably measured temperature ever in Switzerland, though the August 11, 2003 temperature at Grono was probably warmer (near 40°C), after correcting for the known problems with the site.

Samoa was originally listed by Mr. Herrera as tying its national heat record with 36.5°C (97.7°F) on January 20 at Asau, but a subsequent review of the record revealed possible issues with the measurement equipment, so this record is dubious.

Kudos also to Mr. Herrera for supplying the data for the "Notable global heat and cold marks set for August 2015" and "Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in August 2015" sections.

Jeff Masters

Heat Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 448. StormTrackerScott:

12Z GFS showing extremely high moisture values moving NW from the Baja into the Desert SW from SO Cal to Arizona. 2.00 to 2.25" PWAT's across the Deserts means a very heavy rain event with significant Flooding for those folks. #El-Nino.



If it happens. Right now, no sign of a gulf surge at the surface. SSTs are ripe.
And those wind gusts off-shore are a function of the convection/t-storms/and the sheer-pressure gradients between the trof at the surface and the ULL Tutt cell adjacent to the area that is fueling the baroclinic convection:



Upper Level Tutt:
Quoting 471. K8eCane:



Morning Gro!
I posted on this blog earlier that the air here in wilmington nc didnt feel tropical, but now it does and some breezy conditions AND i now have a headache



Take two asprin and call me in the morning.

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)
/
IR/WV/Microwave RGB (IR [R], WV [G], MI89 [B])
Captain TUTT and the corresponding shear is currently in control of the large scale synoptic environment around 96L.
Quoting 501. BayFog:


If it happens. Right now, no sign of a gulf surge at the surface. SSTs are ripe.


It's forecast by the WPC folks. Wettest September ever setting up for SO Cal. Not surprised to see this with already a top 3 El-Nino in place.

Quoting 506. weathermanwannabe:

Captain TUTT and the corresponding shear is currently in control of the large scale synoptic environment around 96L.



another outlook from GUESS WHO? comes out at 2
Quoting 495. Starhopper:

its a pay site star weathertap
Hey guys Im really scared Im seeing a funnel cloud here in Lauderdale by the sea and the wind is whipping....
Look at the system going into my area theres a large hook
Quoting 510. Camerooski:

Hey guys Im really scared Im seeing a funnel cloud here in Lauderdale by the sea and the wind is whipping....

It's aight...keep your eye on it. If it comes close go in a closet.
Quoting 510. Camerooski:

Hey guys Im really scared Im seeing a funnel cloud here in Lauderdale by the sea and the wind is whipping....


Think of your basic safety as if it is a tornado and take shelter right now but dont panic. Just take shelter....right now
You can see a noticeable difference in TD10'S convection.... it's growing rapidly
Quoting 514. tiggerhurricanes2001:

You can see a noticeable difference in TD10'S convection.... it's growing rapidly

Growing. Doesn't even fit in the frame huh. Large.
Quoting 510. Camerooski:

Hey guys Im really scared Im seeing a funnel cloud here in Lauderdale by the sea and the wind is whipping....


So scared you took the time to post this comment? I'm sure everything will happen to work out just fine.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nine, located about a thousand miles east-northeast of
the Lesser Antilles, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Ten,
located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.

A broad area of low pressure located east of the northeast Florida
coast is producing a large area of disturbed weather extending from
the eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida and into the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean as it interacts with an upper-level trough.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
this low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics
during the next few days as it moves slowly northeastward off the
southeast coast of the United States. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if
necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible today over portions of the Florida Peninsula and coastal
areas of Georgia and South Carolina. For more information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
Okay guys I am back. The winds are still howling, but the funnel cloud went back into the clouds. I was outside watching the wind and I saw the funnel cloud and I was extremely worried because on the radar was a well-defined hook coming into Lauderdale-by the sea. Luckily though we just got TS force winds and rain... I was also scared because all over SE florida is instability in the air, and lots of strong storms. Im in for a long day today, and a sneak peak of the El-Nino conditions bringing severe weather into Florida this upcoming year....
2pm TWO NHC 96L


A broad area of low pressure located east of the northeast Florida
coast is producing a large area of disturbed weather extending from
the eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida and into the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean as it interacts with an upper-level trough.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
this low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics
during the next few days as it moves slowly northeastward off the
southeast coast of the United States. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if
necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible today over portions of the Florida Peninsula and coastal
areas of Georgia and South Carolina. For more information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 3h3 hours ago
#Weather story I'm watching is possible heavy rains/flooding in SW USA next week- 4-6 SD PWs + upper trough -- whoa!


96L is headed offshore of the Coast regardless of development which is a good thing; good thing that the shear over Florida is keeping the worst of the convection in the Atlantic. The flooding and rain in Florida, and parts of Georgia and the Carolinas downstream, could be much worse otherwise.
Interesting look out there between 96L and TD 10; both convective areas are pretty massive:



Quoting 521. weathermanwannabe:

96L is headed offshore of the Coast regardless of development which is a good thing; good thing that the shear over Florida is keeping the worst of the convection in the Atlantic. The flooding and rain in Florida, and parts of Georgia and the Carolinas downstream, could be much worse otherwise.



weathermanwannabe i betcha gonna be an excellent weatherman
Some big time thunderstorms are rolling into Broward and Dade counties this afternoon. I just got TS force winds with one of them, and a funnel cloud. So its going to be a LONG afternoon and evening. On the radar Im seeing a large storm about to roll into my area in 30 min... Hopefully it strengthens and I can get some cool footage! :)
Quoting 523. K8eCane:




weathermanwannabe i betcha gonna be an excellent weatherman


Too old; this is just a hobby interest but thanks; but I salivate every time I drive past the FSU Met School (with Tally NWS in one of the buildings) a few times a week.................................... :)
Quoting 518. Camerooski:

Okay guys I am back. The winds are still howling, but the funnel cloud went back into the clouds...

You can submit a storm report to MIA NWS here is you want. Under contact info you can select general public if you aren't a spotter.
Quoting 518. Camerooski:

Okay guys I am back. The winds are still howling, but the funnel cloud went back into the clouds. I was outside watching the wind and I saw the funnel cloud and I was extremely worried because on the radar was a well-defined hook coming into Lauderdale-by the sea. Luckily though we just got TS force winds and rain... I was also scared because all over SE florida is instability in the air, and lots of strong storms. Im in for a long day today, and a sneak peak of the El-Nino conditions bringing severe weather into Florida this upcoming year....


Whew, that was a close one! Can you possibly post a pic of the "funnel cloud, or maybe the radar loop of the "well defined" hook? From what I can tell, there's some thunderstorms in the area, but nothing close to what you described. There have been no tornado warnings issued for your area, which seems odd since you yourself saw a funnel cloud.
Schools must be closed in S Fl today. :-)
Quoting 527. tampabaymatt:



Whew, that was a close one! Can you possibly post a pic of the "funnel cloud, or maybe the radar loop of the "well defined" hook? From what I can tell, there's some thunderstorms in the area, but nothing close to what you described. There have been no tornado warnings issued for your area, which seems odd since you yourself saw a funnel cloud.
Look at the radar and if you don't see the hook then you must be blind, I live in Lauderdale-by-the-sea and the Local Mets just reported a waterspout 20 min ago from that storm...
Quoting 524. Camerooski:

Some big time thunderstorms are rolling into Broward and Dade counties this afternoon. I just got TS force winds with one of them, and a funnel cloud. So its going to be a LONG afternoon and evening. On the radar Im seeing a large storm about to roll into my area in 30 min... Hopefully it strengthens and I can get some cool footage! :)


Im glad you're ok but i hope you werent pulling a trick.
Quoting 526. Skyepony:


You can submit a storm report to MIA NWS here is you want. Under contact info you can select general public if you aren't a spotter.
I will thank you, but Im not a spotter...
Quoting 529. Camerooski:

Look at the radar and if you don't see the hook then you must be blind, I live in Lauderdale-by-the-sea and the Local Mets just reported a waterspout 20 min ago from that storm...




Maybe you can point it out to me. Here you go. I did some of the work for you.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings

Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 1123 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 1056 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 1042 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 1038 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 1031 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1014 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 956 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 954 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 953 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
Quoting 532. tampabaymatt:





Maybe you can point it out to me. Here you go. I did some of the work for you.
Nice bro you posted an 8 minute long radar! If you pull up weather.local10.com and go to the radar you will see it...
Quoting 530. K8eCane:



Im glad you're ok but i hope you werent pulling a trick.
I swear to god I wasn't! I've never experienced a tornado, as I'm only 15. But I was very scared... Lots of severe weather popping up this afternoon in SE FL, another large thunderstorm coming into my area aswell soon
Thanks for all the blog updates Dr Masters and Mr Henson!

Round #4or 5 of California's dealing with tropical moisture/former tropical system surface circulations flowing into Soo Cal from the south since July. These will serve a good purpose to wet the vegetation and get soil moisture content to higher levels before our typical Santa Ana wind events in late Sept/Early October and will also help if/when we get heavier rain events this fall/winter from El Nino pineapple express type setup flows into Cali. It all bodes well currently.

Quoting 529. Camerooski:

Look at the radar and if you don't see the hook then you must be blind, I live in Lauderdale-by-the-sea and the Local Mets just reported a waterspout 20 min ago from that storm...


You must live next door to Grothar - the one who designates blobs. You may become the designator of the 'hook'.
Quoting 534. Camerooski:

Nice bro you posted an 8 minute long radar! If you pull up weather.local10.com and go to the radar you will see it...


Around what time did you see the funnel cloud and well defined hook echo? That'll help me narrow it down.
Quoting 531. Camerooski:

I will thank you, but Im not a spotter...
You don't have to be a spotter. Follow the directions Skye gave you. It's important you report what you saw to the NWS.
The North Florida low is trying to get it's act together at the surface off the coast of Jax; winds are out of the W-SW off of Cape Canaveral and out of the N-NE off the coast of Savannah:

Off of Savannah:

Station 41008
NDBC
Location:
 31.400N 80.868W
Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2015 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (99°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.86 in and falling
Air Temperature: 79.3 F
Dew Point: 73.9 F
Water Temperature: 81.0 F


Off of Canaveral:

Station 41010
NDBC
Location:
 28.903N 78.464W
Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2015 17:20:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (240°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in
Air Temperature: 82.6 F
Dew Point: 72.5 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F
Quoting 539. sar2401:

You don't have to be a spotter. Follow the directions Skye gave you. It's important you report what you saw to the NWS.
I just did thank you very much. i just didn't put a spotter ID: I reported 50 mph winds small tree limbs down, .50 rain in 15 min. and funnel cloud spotting... :)
Quoting 538. tampabaymatt:



Around what time did you see the funnel cloud and well defined hook echo? That'll help me narrow it down.
about 30 min ago
Quoting 537. rmbjoe1954:



You must live next door to Grothar - the one who designates blobs. You may become the designator of the 'hook'.


well here in Lauderdale-by-the-Sea we are under a Significant Weather Advisory for the next huge line of thunderstorms about to roll in the skies are super dark and it looks like nightime, ntm the lightning
Quoting 543. Camerooski:

about 30 min ago


I guess the NWS must have missed it. They must not have had anyone manning the radar at the time.
The NWC mentions a funnel cloud sighting in Hallandale, North Miami Beach, and Fort Laud. and how the next storm will produce winds of 50-60 mph winds. You have to remember that there was a EF1 tornado in Davie 2 days ago, so there is tons of rotation in these storms...
Quoting 546. tampabaymatt:



I guess the NWS must have missed it. They must not have had anyone manning the radar at the time.
you agree with me???
Quoting 526. Skyepony:


You can submit a storm report to MIA NWS here is you want. Under contact info you can select general public if you aren't a spotter.


I am a spotter for the NWS San Diego Office. You basically learn what type of events they want reported i.e. Severe Thunderstorm,High Winds, Precip Type/Amounts, Snow,Hail, Flash Flooding, Road Conditions, etc. You then take a short 20-30 question test and pass that, they assign you a Spotter#. I have probably sent like 6-8 reports over several years on Thunderstorms, Snow amounts, Snow level elevations and rain. You can also send in images to them.
3 products issued by NWS for: Fort Lauderdale FL More Sharing ServicesShare|Share on facebookShare on twitterShare on emailShare on printShare on gmail

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1244 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-FLZ063-066>068-071>074-168-172 >174-182000-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...
LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...PAHOKEE...
SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...WELLINGTON...LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
SOUTH COUNTY REGIONAL PARK...PALM SPRINGS...FLORIDA GARDENS...
ABERDEEN...BOCA WEST...MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...
MARKHAM PARK...COCONUT CREEK...CORAL SPRINGS...TAMARAC...
SUNRISE...PLANTATION...DAVIE...COOPER CITY...HOLLYWOOD...
PEMBROKE PINES...MIRAMAR...HOMESTEAD...FLORIDA CITY...REDLAND...
MICCOSUKEE RESORT...KENDALE LAKES...WEST KENDALL...COUNTRY WALK...
SHARK VALLEY...MIAMI...MIAMI GARDENS...MIAMI LAKES...HIALEAH...
DORAL...SOUTH MIAMI...KENDALL...CUTLER RIDGE...JUPITER...
WEST PALM BEACH...BOCA RATON...POMPANO BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...
FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...HOLLYWOOD BEACH...AVENTURA...
MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI SHORES...DOWNTOWN MIAMI...CUTLER BAY...
HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT PARK...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK
1244 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015

.NOW...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. THEIR MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 35 MILES PER
HOUR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

$$
This is an interesting chart of the Antarctic sea ice levels for yesterday.
The blue line is 2015 and the green line is 2014, about 2 million sq kilometres difference.

Quoting 536. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for all the blog updates Dr Masters and Mr Henson!

Round #4or 5 of California's dealing with tropical moisture/former tropical system surface circulations flowing into Soo Cal from the south since July. These will serve a good purpose to wet the vegetation and get soil moisture content to higher levels before our typical Santa Ana wind events in late Sept/Early October and will also help if/when we get heavier rain events this fall/winter from El Nino pineapple express type setup flows into Cali. It all bodes well currently.




The fact that there have already been summer rainfall records broken in parts of southern CA earlier in the summer and again recently is a good sign. Personally I think this winter El Nino has a good shot at ending the drought or removing a good part of it at least this winter. It's not guaranteed. But it's possible. It's been my observation that often times major rainfall events tend to arrive after a long period of severe drought, and while that's often probably more true for rainier climates like the Southeast and Northeast more than a place like the Southwest, I've definitely seen it happen in the Southwest too.

All I know is, droughts do break eventually, and after such a long period of severe drought on much of CA, I feel this unusually strong El Nino phase is sign of the atmosphere preparing to end the drought.
That's certainly no guarantee, but what I'm saying is based on the fact that climate is simply the simple statistical mean of weather. Such that if one has a significant deviation from the mean for a consistent period of time, eventually that is bound to end, and a return to either near the mean, or deviation from the mean in the opposite direction will occur.

For example, I know that in the Tampa Bay area, over a period of about 5 years, it seemed like drought was dominating more than anything else, and often times it was. There was worry when plentiful rain with consistency would return. Well, now the area hasn't had drought in several years and most sites have been above average for the last 4-5 years. Drought sometimes can seem like it will never end, but then a rainier phase may soon come that will be around for a long time, leaving the seemingly endless drought a distant memory.

Just imagine what it was like to go through the dust bowl in the 1930's in the plains region. It probably felt like things would NEVER recover again, but they did!
Wow this storm about to roll in is HUGE
Quoting 545. Camerooski:

well here in Lauderdale-by-the-Sea we are under a Significant Weather Advisory for the next huge line of thunderstorms about to roll in the skies are super dark and it looks like nightime, ntm the lightning


Always gets me a bit nervous seeing them purple/greenish skies with Thunderstorms here in placid (weather wise usually) Soo Cal. The forecast is the same so often in the area, it is a rare occurrence when something really unusual happens.
557. Mikla
Quoting 554. Camerooski:

Wow this storm about to roll in is HUGE

Still love your passion. There is a Marine Warning that mentions water spouts and there is a nice line of storms rolling through. The storms have some general rotation here and there there was a storm with a nice couplet on it about the time you mentioned around your area.

By radar, there are a few areas of rotation noted but I don't see anything that is of major concern.
With more Water Vapor available per square meter, we're seeing rain rates and amounts from Storms increasing globally.


As predicted.

559. 7544
Quoting 556. ElConando:

Holy hell that was some of the strongest rain I've ever been through! It looked worse in Broward too! It looked like a derecho, but it has none of the winds of one, at least here.


yeap and look whats about to follow these are intense stay safe http://www.nbc-2.com/category/170788/interactive-r adar Link
Well, that storm was a let down.... Maybe 30 mph winds, torrential rain, and lighning but that was it. Still pouring here tho
Quoting 556. ElConando:

Holy hell that was some of the strongest rain I've ever been through! It looked worse in Broward too! It looked like a derecho, but it has none of the winds of one, at least here.
Here in Lauderdale-by-the-sea I was expecting at least TS force winds, we just got HUGE rains and lightning....
Quoting 561. Camerooski:

Well, that storm was a let down.... Maybe 30 mph winds, torrential rain, and lighning but that was it. Still pouring here tho
i'm still waiting for a storm like that.
Quoting 553. Jedkins01:



The fact that there have already been summer rainfall records broken in parts of southern CA earlier in the summer and again recently is a good sign. Personally I think this winter El Nino has a good shot at ending the drought or removing a good part of it at least this winter. It's not guaranteed. But it's possible. It's been my observation that often times major rainfall events tend to arrive after a long period of severe drought, and while that's often probably more true for rainier climates like the Southeast and Northeast more than a place like the Southwest, I've definitely seen it happen in the Southwest too.

All I know is, droughts do break eventually, and after such a long period of severe drought on much of CA, I feel this unusually strong El Nino phase is sign of the atmosphere preparing to end the drought.
That's certainly no guarantee, but what I'm saying is based on the fact that climate is simply the simple statistical mean of weather. Such that if one has a significant deviation from the mean for a consistent period of time, eventually that is bound to end, and a return to either near the mean, or deviation from the mean in the opposite direction will occur.

For example, I know that in the Tampa Bay area, over a period of about 5 years, it seemed like drought was dominating more than anything else, and often times it was. There was worry when plentiful rain with consistency would return. Well, now the area hasn't had drought in several years and most sites have been above average for the last 4-5 years. Drought sometimes can seem like it will never end, but then a rainier phase may soon come that will be around for a long time, leaving the seemingly endless drought a distant memory.

Just imagine what it was like to go through the dust bowl in the 1930's in the plains region. It probably felt like things would NEVER recover again, but they did!


Hope you are correct! Hope not too much flooding......let it spread it out over the fall and winter, rain early and middle and then snow in Sierra's to melt in spring and summer, not get 15' of snow and then warm pineapple express type flow for a week to melt it all in Febuary! Would be great to see all the waterfalls flowing in Yosemite well into summer!
Quoting 563. Gearsts:

i'm still waiting for a storm like that.
lol im sorry, but hey you got a TS we haven't...
Jacksonville, Fla Nexrad radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile 124 nmi range

Not as much of a rain shield over parts of Florida today (as yesterday) with the sun peeking through on an off so there is a little more instability in the air; been real nice in Tally all morning with the sun poking through, it got dark a little while ago with some low slung clouds (but no rain), and the sun is out again. That seabreeze interaction along the SE Florida coast is probably contributing to some of the coastal boomers down there in combination with the trof and low further to the North:





Quoting 559. 7544:



yeap and look whats about to follow these are intense stay safe http://www.nbc-2.com/category/170788/interactive-r adar
I just went through that actually. It passed me. Now it's just moderate rain here... for now. Thanks for the concern though!
Quoting 558. Patrap:

With more Water Vapor available per square meter, we're seeing rain rates and amounts from Storms increasing globally.


As predicted.


Beachfront might be west of the I-95 soon!
Quoting 569. ElConando:

I just went through that actually. It passed me. Now it's just moderate rain here... for now.
looks like that may be it for today... The NWS said that late next week we will see the same again... FUN :)
Quoting 565. Camerooski:

lol im sorry, but hey you got a TS we haven't...
When was that??
Quoting 572. Gearsts:

When was that??
I thought you lived in PR, otherwise you got Erika...
Oh Man I Was Expecting 1993 Derecho Like Conditions Lol... oh well if the GFS from yesterday is correct and has a Cat 1 hurricane south of Cuba in 1 week, than we will have a hurricane on our hands. Than I'll get the wind, but the wrong way lol
Quoting 573. Camerooski:

I thought you lived in PR, otherwise you got Erika...
I'm still waiting for Erika here in Aguadilla Puerto Rico. ;)
TXNT21 KNES 181823
TCSNTL

A. 10L (NONAME)

B. 18/1745Z

C. 13.1N

D. 37.1W

E. THREE/MET-10

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.0 BASED ON .6 BANDING. MET IS 2.5 BASED ON
RAPID DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK
577. Mikla
Quoting 571. Camerooski:

looks like that may be it for today... The NWS said that late next week we will see the same again... FUN :)


If you are really interested and you don't have it, for the holidays you should ask for one of the GRlevelX products. There are other programs out there but these are probably the most popular. I use both GRLevel3 and GR2Analyst.

You can also go here to get the training videos on reading the different radar return types. I have a link for some other training videos somewhere and will post it if I find it.
Quoting 503. Grothar:




Take two asprin and call me in the morning.


Ibuprophen (motrin/advil} works better esp for muscle spasms such as those us old people (or young athletes)
get. A marine friend of mine called Motrin "vitamin M"

Here in DC we still can get tropical glop air into October. After mid October, the sun is just too weak and such air modifies some before reaching us. The December variant is dewpoints near 60 and highs in the low to mid 70s and it isn't at all common.
Quoting 577. Mikla:



If you are really interested and you don't have it, for the holidays you should ask for one of the GRlevelX products. There are other programs out there but these are probably the most popular. I use both GRLevel3 and GR2Analyst.

You can also go here to get the training videos on reading the different radar return types. I have a link for some other training videos somewhere and will post it if I find it.
Thanks I will look into it! :)

Issued by The National Weather Service Miami, FL
Fri, Sep 18, 2:18 pm EDT

... SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING... 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...
* AT 217 PM EDT... DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS... CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS... EXTENDING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PALM AIRE TO SUNNY ISLES BEACH... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* IN ADDITION... FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING... GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS... OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES... AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FORT LAUDERDALE... HOLLYWOOD... CORAL SPRINGS... POMPANO BEACH... BOCA RATON... DEERFIELD BEACH... DELRAY BEACH... TAMARAC... MARGATE... LIGHTHOUSE POINT... LAUDERDALE-BY-THE-SEA... HIGHLAND BEACH... COCONUT CREEK... OAKLAND PARK... LAUDERDALE LAKES... DANIA BEACH... PARKLAND... WILTON MANORS... HILLSBORO BEACH AND SEA RANCH LAKES.
Our power went out, and the winds were quite strong. I did not see any funnel clouds, but I would not doubt there were any. This line of storms was exceptionally strong.
So whatever tries to develop off the SE coast will try to go out to sea but move back in towards NC per the GFS and Euro..

edit..latest Euro run is showing it move down offshore on the SE coast..
Tropical Depression TEN
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 18, 2015:

Location: 13.2°N 37.0°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

0 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

0 NM 0 NM
0 NM 0 NM
T.D 10 Is organizing nicely and should be Ida by 11:00p.m tonight.It has nice spiral bands and its large size may help it fight off the dry air longer.
Quoting 582. Grothar:

Our power went out, and the winds were quite strong. I did not see any funnel clouds, but I would not doubt there were any. This line of storms was exceptionally strong.
Really? Over here in Laud by the sea we didn't get any wind, alot of lightning and rain tho
Quoting 582. Grothar:

Our power went out, and the winds were quite strong. I did not see any funnel clouds, but I would not doubt there were any. This line of storms was exceptionally strong.


Well it's getting darker over the Treasure Coast. Would you call this a micro-blob?

Look by Yucutan.
Quoting 586. Camerooski:

Really? Over here in Laud by the sea we didn't get any wind, alot of lightning and rain tho


I'm only 1/2 mile from you. You mean you didn't get that violent wind? :)
Quoting 587. rmbjoe1954:



Well it's getting darker over the Treasure Coast. Would you call this a micro-blob?
Quoting 587. rmbjoe1954:



Well it's getting darker over the Treasure Coast. Would you call this a micro-blob?


I'll show you a micro-blob :)
Quoting 575. Gearsts:

I'm still waiting for Erika here in Aguadilla Puerto Rico. ;)
I'm close by, Erika was so weak, that when it passed by Cabo Rojo, it didn't even rain here, NW off the island...
Chilean television network TVN aired on Thursday (September 17) aerial images of earthquake and wave-related damage along coastal areas following an 8.3 earthquake.

The images were taken by a drone used by the network over the coastal town of Los Vilos. Residents tried to salvage belongings from dozens of beachfront homes that were destroyed or severely damaged when the strong waves swept in.
Violent aftershocks continued shaking the South American country on Thursday morning and locals said they feared another big quake, although the government lifted its tsunami warning.






What happened to TD9? Is that the Fujiwara effect.
Quoting 585. washingtonian115:

T.D 10 Is organizing nicely and should be Ida by 11:00p.m tonight.It has nice spiral bands and its large size may help it fight off the dry air longer.
Is there any High to keep it moving west to the Caribbean?
596. JLPR2
Quoting 565. Camerooski:

lol im sorry, but hey you got a TS we haven't...


You mean tropical shower Erika? XD
Erika's effects here were more like those of a decent TW.
Quoting 595. hurricanefishfla:

Is there any High to keep it moving west to the Caribbean?
No.T,D 10 will be on a north west movement not even reaching the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 560. Patrap:


A big and nice naked swirl.
Quoting 573. Camerooski:

I thought you lived in PR, otherwise you got Erika...
Officially we did got too weak Erika., but NW Puerto Rico, we didn't feel anything, not even a drop of rain....
Would think TD 10 is named at 5 PM, both SAB and TAFB are at 35 kts.


AL 10 201509181745 DVTS 1310N 3710W 35 SAB 2525 /////
AL 10 201509181745 DVTS 1340N 3670W 35 TAFB 2525 /////
Quoting 599. HuracanTaino:

Officially we did got too weak Erika., but NW Puerto Rico, we didn't feel anything, not even a drop of rain....
I think Erika was the worse TS forecast ever.
Quoting 600. nrtiwlnvragn:

Would think TD 10 is named at 5 PM, both SAB and TAFB are at 35 kts.


AL 10 201509181745 DVTS 1310N 3710W 35 SAB 2525 /////
AL 10 201509181745 DVTS 1340N 3670W 35 TAFB 2525 /////

Looks like a TS right now.
603. PR51
Quoting 599. HuracanTaino:

Officially we did got too weak Erika., but NW Puerto Rico, we didn't feel anything, not even a drop of rain....
Is there any possibility to get a tropical system in PR? Is it possible to get Ida?
604. PR51
Quoting 595. hurricanefishfla:

Is there any High to keep it moving west to the Caribbean?
For real
605. JLPR2
Quoting 603. PR51:

Is there any possibility to get a tropical system in PR? Is it possible to get Ida?



At least for the moment no, wouldn't discard something in the future since it's not impossible but El Niño makes that very unlikely.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 541. Camerooski:

I just did thank you very much. i just didn't put a spotter ID: I reported 50 mph winds small tree limbs down, .50 rain in 15 min. and funnel cloud spotting... :)
That's good. Just make sure you mention the wind and rain are estimates. It's a good idea to keep a copy of the Beaufort Scale on your phone so you can refer to what you see and match it up to the likely wind. For example, winds of 46-54 mph should produce effects like minor structural damage with shingles blown off roofs and large limbs down. 40 mph winds are the ones likely to break off twigs and small branches. Most people will overestimate wind without having some kind of reference.

The Fat Lady definitely hasn't sung for TD 9 as of yet -its circulation will have to be tracked closely as it moves more left eventually in the guidance envelope.
It may come a bit closer than was originally anticipated for the northern Leeward islands, and possibly as a better organised system too...

Blessings!