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Earth has its 5th Warmest June on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2013

June 2013 was the globe's 5th warmest June since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 2nd warmest June on record. The year-to-date period of January - June has been the 7th warmest such period on record. June 2013 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2013 was the 340th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 4th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June 2013 in his June 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2013, the 5th warmest June for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed over much of northern Canada, far northwestern Russia, southern Japan, the Philippines, part of southwestern China, and central southern Africa. It was cooler than average across part of central Asia, central India, western Europe, and far northeastern Canada. No record cold was observed over land areas during the month. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Five billion-dollar weather disasters in June
At least five billion-dollar weather disasters hit Earth during June. The most damaging of these was the historic $22 billion flood disaster that killed at least 23 people in Central Europe in late May and early June--the 5th costliest non-U.S. weather disaster in world history. Record flooding unprecedented since the Middle Ages hit major rivers in Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Slovakia; the Danube River in Passau, Germany hit its highest level since 1501, and the Saale River in Halle, Germany was the highest in its 400-year period of record. Numerous cities recorded their highest flood waters in more than a century, although in some locations the great flood of 2002 was higher.

The world-wide tally of billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013 is sixteen, and the U.S. total is four, according to the June 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield:

1) Flooding, Central Europe, 5/30 - 6/6, $22 billion
2) Drought, Brazil, 1/1 - 5/31, $8.3 billion
3) Tornado, Moore, OK, and associated U.S. severe weather, 5/18 - 5/22, $4.5 billion
4) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 4/30, $4.2 billion
5) Flooding, Calgary, Alberta Canada, 6/19 - 6/24, $3.8 billion
6) Flooding, Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
7) Flooding, Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
8) Tornadoes and severe weather, U.S., 5/26 - 6/2, $2 billion
9) Severe weather, Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $2 billion
10) Winter weather, Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
11) Drought, New Zealand, 1/1 - 5/10, $1.6 billion
12) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11, $1.6 billion
13) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3, $1.4 billion
14) Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, $1.3 billion
15) Flooding, India and Nepal, 6/14 - 6/18, $1.1 billion
16) Winter weather, Plains, Midwest, Northeast U.S., 2/24 - 2/27, $1.0 billion

The $8.3 billion cost of the 2013 drought in Brazil makes it by far the costliest natural disaster in Brazil's history, according to the international disasters database EM-DAT. Their 2nd most costly disaster was the drought of 1978 ($2.3 billion in 1978 dollars.)


Figure 2. The Danube River in Passau, Germany hit its highest level since 1501 during the June 2013 flood. Image credit: Stefan Penninger.


Figure 3. The $22 billion price tag of the June - June 2013 Central European floods puts that disaster in 5th place on the list of most expensive non-U.S. weather-related disasters.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 15th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during June 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer and into the fall, and the large majority of the El Niño models also predict that neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive months for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of July 15, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 11th lowest June extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during June was 11th lowest in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The relatively high coverage was due to wind patterns that helped spread the ice out over a larger area. During the first two weeks of July, Arctic ice extent has fallen to the 5th lowest level on record.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. If the Atlantic stays quiet, I plan on making my next post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1987. Grothar:


The Peloponnesian.


When my parents went up to James Bay in the early '80's (in my car) they can back with a sheet of trilobites. My father had me carry it in and as I passed him, I commented "Nice class picture, dad".
2002. flsky
We've had about 3 hours of reasonably steady rain here in Ponce Inlet, FL tonight. Very cooling for the evening. Just a few boomers.
Cuiaba, Brazil

According to Wikipedia the record low is 2.3C and this cold wave will not get us close.

Unfortunately also according to Wikipedia the temperature in Cuiaba has reached 124F, which seems awfully high and if the record high is questionable the record low may be also.
2004. Patrap
Post #2000, and 2000 years ago quote,

O-k'

Quoting 2000. Patrap:


The Carthaginians defending the city were attacked by three Roman legions. The Carthaginians were proud and brave but they couldn't hold. They were massacred. Arab women stripped them of their tunics and their swords and lances. The soldiers lay naked in the sun. Two thousand years ago. I was here.


115,250 comments since becoming member 8 years ago--that is over 14,00 per year--over 40 per day, every day on average.

I am impressed
Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam

Quoting 2000. Patrap:


The Carthaginians defending the city were attacked by three Roman legions. The Carthaginians were proud and brave but they couldn't hold. They were massacred. Arab women stripped them of their tunics and their swords and lances. The soldiers lay naked in the sun. Two thousand years ago. I was here.
Rain is finally coming to an end in Orlando, 2.3 inches since 7 P.M.
Quoting 2005. HoraceDebussyJones:


115,250 comments since becoming member 8 years ago--that is over 14,00 per year--over 40 per day, every day on average.

I am impressed


He and Tazmanian are on a race for the first to reach 1,000,000 comments.
2009. Grothar
Quoting 2001. JustDucky251:


When my parents went up to James Bay in the early '80's (in my car) they can back with a sheet of trilobites. My father had me carry it in and as I passed him, I commented "Nice class picture, dad".


How long were you in your room?? :) I have to remember that one. I can always use it on Rookie.
Quoting 2009. Grothar:


How long were you in your room?? :) I have to remember that one. I can always use it on Rookie.


And I will use it forever on you ;)
2011. Grothar
Quoting 1999. Naga5000:


The War Between the States is an acceptable answer on the citizenship test to this very day.


See, I haven't lost it!
Quoting 2010. BaltimoreBrian:


And I will use it forever on you ;)


Except I will say "nice kids, Grothar!"
Quoting 2005. HoraceDebussyJones:


115,250 comments since becoming member 8 years ago--that is over 14,00 per year--over 40 per day, every day on average.

I am impressed


We as a community are good. Lots of communities do not work well.
Quoting 2011. Grothar:


See, I haven't lost it!


But you said state in your comment--as in one. There was more than one state at the time of the Civil War.

Until you sneakily changed your comment ;)
Quoting 2009. Grothar:


How long were you in your room?? :) I have to remember that one. I can always use it on Rookie.


Dad just calmly replied that he had been cropped out of the picture!
Quoting 2009. Grothar:


How long were you in your room?? :) I have to remember that one. I can always use it on Rookie.


Grothar, I have no class. Hence, no class picture.
Further show just got evacuated in NY due to severe weather..
2018. GatorWX
Radio waves, particles and pressures, It's an interesting thought.
The Dvořák concert in Central Park scheduled for earlier this week was cancelled due to excessive heat.
2020. Grothar
Quoting 2014. BaltimoreBrian:


But you said state in your comment--as in one. There was more than one state at the time of the Civil War.

Until you sneakily changed your comment ;)


Sneakily?? I just dropped my "s". I suggest you do the same. :)
2021. Grothar
Quoting 2017. Skyepony:
Further show just got evacuated in NY due to severe weather..


What show? I don't see anything on the radar

Quoting 2018. GatorWX:
Radio waves, particles and pressures, It's an interesting thought.


That is an interesting thought. I wonder how much pressure radio waves give on various materials per sq meter?
Quoting 2012. BaltimoreBrian:


Except I will say "nice kids, Grothar!"


Although it is not written as such, Grothar introduced Adam to Eve. EXIT! Stage right!------------THUMP! .... All right! Who moved the exit?!?
2024. tashi
Quoting 2021. Grothar:


What show?

Furthur concert- former Grateful Dead on Eastern tour
At 11 p.m. in Central Park it was 89 with a heat index of 95 and they may have cancelled for that reason as they did with the Dvorak concert earlier this week.
2026. zampaz
Quoting 2018. GatorWX:
Radio waves, particles and pressures, It's an interesting thought.

The universe in a nutshell, from quantum physics to cosmology.
2027. tashi
Quoting 2021. Grothar:


What show? I don't see anything on the radar



It was said to be due to lightning
Quoting 2023. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Although it is not written as such, Grothar introduced Adam to Eve. EXIT! Stage right!------------THUMP! .... All right! Who moved the exit?!?


My kids keep asking how dirt was first made. I tell them that was my father's observation, not mine.
2029. zampaz
Quoting 2022. JustDucky251:


That is an interesting thought. I wonder how much pressure radio waves give on various materials per sq meter?

Geek...there was some discussion on this as a means of propulsion by nasa...oh now I have to dig for a link.
2030. Grothar
Quoting 2024. tashi:

Furthur concert- former Grateful Dead on Eastern tour


The Grateful Dead are still alive??
2031. tashi
Quoting 2027. tashi:


It was said to be due to lightning

Here's a message that was on FB
Hey, gang;
Sorry we had to cut the show short tonight- there was an issue with the ongoing lightning strikes around the venue. As always, the first concern of the band, the promoters, and the venue is to protect the safety of the public; so when we were asked to stop the show and to ask you all to go to your cars and go home for your own safety, we agreed.

Thank you all for your understanding and patience, and may the four winds blow you safely home.

- the Furthur team
Garcia done been dead near 20 years.
2033. Grothar
Quoting 2023. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Although it is not written as such, Grothar introduced Adam to Eve. EXIT! Stage right!------------THUMP! .... All right! Who moved the exit?!?


Good for you!!
Is the GFS model dead?
This is in case the GFS get's interesting.Gro did the Euro show anything?..
Quoting 2029. zampaz:

Geek...there was some discussion on this as a means of propulsion by nasa...oh now I have to dig for a link.


I meant, in this case, how much energy is being transmitted to the atmosphere by our radio towers, radar systems, cell towers, etc. Although the interaction is obviously weak (or our systems wouldn't work) the amount of energy we pump out is prodigious.
Amateurs interested in emergency preparedness flocked to the 2013 ARRL Hurricane Webinar, which was held Monday evening, July 15. A total of 410 amateurs attended, the highest attendance ever for an ARRL webinar.

Administered by ARRL Emergency Preparedness Manager Mike Corey, KI1U, attendees were given presentations on a number of topics including an overview of the 2013 hurricane season forecasts and the role of IRLP/EchoLink in disaster communication by veteran SKYWARN volunteer Rob Macedo, KD1CY; the history and current status of the National Hurricane Center’s Amateur Radio station WX4NHC by Julio Ripoll, WD4R; a summary of Hurricane Watch Net activity by Net Manager Bobby Graves, KB5HAV, and the importance of publicizing Amateur Radio communication support by ARRL Media and Public Relations Manager Sean Kutzko, KX9X.

Among those registered was FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, KK4INZ, who posted his attendance on his Twitter feed: “Enjoyed joining other hams for training to prepare for the 2013 Hurricane Season.”

“It was great to see such a large attendance for this year’s hurricane webinar,” Corey said. “Given NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for an above-average season, we all need to maintain a high level of readiness to support our communities. Let’s hope it is a quiet and safe one.”

The 2013 ARRL Hurricane Webinar was recorded and will be posted to the ARRL website as soon as possible.
Quoting 2032. BaltimoreBrian:
Garcia done been dead near 20 years.


And some are Grateful. (Not all of us are.)
2039. Thrawst
Quoting 2035. washingtonian115:
This is in case the GFS get's interesting.Gro did the Euro show anything?..


I sincerely thank you for making me hungry. I shall now need to eat some Nutella bagels.
Quoting 2039. Thrawst:


I sincerely thank you for making me hungry. I shall now need to eat some Nutella bagels.
Lol.I to am eating wheat thins for the night munchies.
2041. zampaz
Quoting 2022. JustDucky251:


That is an interesting thought. I wonder how much pressure radio waves give on various materials per sq meter?

Nasa has studied solar sails too...
Anyway Gatorwx gets a smiley for sparking the old imagination, here's a NASA link to:
The Potential for Ambient Plasma Wave Propulsion
Totally got caught off guard by 18z GFS run when I got home from work 15 minutes ago... a tropical storm off coast of SE USA? And a storm getting into water 72 hours from now? 00z run will be interesting... might support 18z or kill it completely again.
Quoting 1948. no1der:
So much for a relatively-more-normal S. Hemisphere jet stream.

Looks like a weird west-tilted loop will clear out of there in a few days:

250mb GFS animation



I admit I'm a bit stumped. I'm not a meteorologist of any sort (which should be obvious), but I'm familiar with the 'look' of the NH jet stream. I'm not familiar with how the SH jet stream usually looks. When I first looked at your link (which is cool by the way), my impression is that it looks bifurcated, but your post said it has a 'weird west-tilted loop', so I guess the 'bifurcation' is normal? What does the SH jet stream usually look like? If you could point me in the right direction (aka as a webpage of Southern Hemisphere for Dummies), or just a quick answer would be appreciated.
Sometimes comments allow accents like in cooment #1971 and sometimes the accents all mess up. How come?
Drumroll please.
2046. ncstorm
48 hours

2047. ncstorm
60 hours
2048. JLPR2
Well, so far so good, the GFS shows the 850mb vort emerging at 60hrs from Africa like it did last run, now lets see what it does with it.

Quoting 2041. zampaz:

Nasa has studied solar sails too...
Anyway Gatorwx gets a smiley for sparking the old imagination, here's a NASA link to:
The Potential for Ambient Plasma Wave Propulsion


And Arthur C. Clarke wrote a story, Sunjammer in 1963, 50 years ago, which was later retitled for this book.
2050. zampaz
Quoting 2036. JustDucky251:


I meant, in this case, how much energy is being transmitted to the atmosphere by our radio towers, radar systems, cell towers, etc. Although the interaction is obviously weak (or our systems wouldn't work) the amount of energy we pump out is prodigious.

While we account for GHG energy storage and solar input do climate models factor in energy released by combustion and nuclear energy?

IMO, this 00z run is critical to Dorian forming or not in next few weeks. If 00z support the storm starting at 72 hours... we really got to watch that low pressure currently in Africa and see in 72 hours. If GFS kill it again, then I don't see storm for another week or two.
2052. ncstorm
69 hours
Me watching the GFS...

Quoting 2007. Naga5000:
Rain is finally coming to an end in Orlando, 2.3 inches since 7 P.M.


Much welcomed rain. I hope we get equally blessed tomorrow. It is the rainy season, after all.
2055. ncstorm
this was the last frame for africa on the 18z GFS

75 hours

2057. ncstorm
75 hours
2058. JLPR2
Hmm.. Maybe..
2059. zampaz
Quoting 2038. JustDucky251:


And some are Grateful. (Not all of us are.)

Quoting 2032. BaltimoreBrian:
Garcia done been dead near 20 years.

I have about 20 Jerry Garcia ties.
Glad I don't have to wear a suit anymore...but kind of miss wearing the ties. Now it's strictly Aloha shirts.
Look like GFS is showing it again...

2061. ncstorm
84 hours

omgosh culture shock.
after working 8-5 for two days feel like i'm back from another planet...grok!
wow. what a world.
2063. JLPR2
My favorite thing about the Full Resolution GFS in Levi's site is the simulated infrared imagery.



Big system...
I'm not going to post it. 1009 mb at 87 HR
2065. ncstorm
96 hours
Quoting 2064. Bluestorm5:
I'm not going to post it. 1009 mb at 87 HR

post it!
87 hrs is nothing when they've been posting 384 hr models lol.
besides, I've heard 144 hrs. is when you begin to enter dreamland.
2067. ncstorm
Quoting 2063. JLPR2:
My favorite thing about the Full Resolution GFS in Levi's site is the simulated infrared imagery.



Big system...


very cool
Besides watching the GFS, I'm watching the 3rd round of severe warned storms to impact my area today. I'm not sure if I'll actually get much though because I have a severe storm shield over my house.
2069. zampaz
Quoting 2044. BaltimoreBrian:
Sometimes comments allow accents like in cooment #1971 and sometimes the accents all mess up. How come?

Web font characters appear as %xxx% and mess up, whereas extended characters (alt codes) do not. For extended characters:
http://www.alt-codes.net/
Quoting 2063. JLPR2:
My favorite thing about the Full Resolution GFS in Levi's site is the simulated infrared imagery.



Big system...
I like that picture of the tropical wave
2071. ncstorm
102 hours
2072. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:
Amateurs interested in emergency preparedness flocked to the 2013 ARRL Hurricane Webinar, which was held Monday evening, July 15. A total of 410 amateurs attended, the highest attendance ever for an ARRL webinar.

Administered by ARRL Emergency Preparedness Manager Mike Corey, KI1U, attendees were given presentations on a number of topics including an overview of the 2013 hurricane season forecasts and the role of IRLP/EchoLink in disaster communication by veteran SKYWARN volunteer Rob Macedo, KD1CY; the history and current status of the National Hurricane Center%u2019s Amateur Radio station WX4NHC by Julio Ripoll, WD4R; a summary of Hurricane Watch Net activity by Net Manager Bobby Graves, KB5HAV, and the importance of publicizing Amateur Radio communication support by ARRL Media and Public Relations Manager Sean Kutzko, KX9X.

Among those registered was FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, KK4INZ, who posted his attendance on his Twitter feed: %u201CEnjoyed joining other hams for training to prepare for the 2013 Hurricane Season.%u201D

%u201CIt was great to see such a large attendance for this year%u2019s hurricane webinar,%u201D Corey said. %u201CGiven NOAA%u2019s Climate Prediction Center%u2019s forecast for an above-average season, we all need to maintain a high level of readiness to support our communities. Let%u2019s hope it is a quiet and safe one.%u201D

The 2013 ARRL Hurricane Webinar was recorded and will be posted to the ARRL website as soon as possible.

I was one of the ones participating in the webinar. It was much better than last year, and I think having the head of FEMA being an active ham didn't hurt. The webinar had a lot of information about the NHC, how they forecast hurricanes, and how they utilize amateur radio as part of their network. It would be of interest to weather nerds also, not just radio/weather nerds. :-) It should be up at the ARRL website sometime this weekend.

EDIT: You can see how modifying a post will screw up every apostrophe, changing them to a "%u2019s" and it sometimes (but not always) changes quotation makes to "%u201D" or a "%u201C". POther time you'll get something even more odd for no apparent reason. What a wreck!
Quoting 2071. ncstorm:
102 hours
what happened to the MBs?
GFS 00z run is showing VERY slow moving large system that is struggling to develops so far. I'm not posting it because ncstorm got it.
Not as intense as the 18z GFS yet, though that run was probably too quick with development to start with.

Quoting 2074. Bluestorm5:
GFS 00z run is showing VERY slow moving large system that is struggling to develops so far. I'm not posting it because ncstorm got it.
Slow movement might give this one a chance to develop.
Here let me join the party.

GFS 105 hrs.

2078. ncstorm
108 hours
Quoting 2076. unknowncomic:
Slow movement might give this one a chance to develop.
Better chance, for sure. We'll have to see.
Their's a impressive trough off the east coast.

drip
Quoting 2081. washingtonian115:
Their's a impressive trough off the east coast.
the storm is moving slow and the trough off the east coast will get kick out with a high soon.
2084. Thrawst
Quoting 2077. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Here let me join the party.

GFS 105 hrs.



How do you find hi-res models on Levi's website... it's been picking at my head for awhile lol
The african wave will form into a storm by wendesday,I am starting to feel very confident.
2086. hu2007
nice weather here in pr and that intense wave just kaboooffff no where to be found,incredible change of yesterday. what new in the tropics
2087. JLPR2
Quoting 2084. Thrawst:


How do you find hi-res models on Levi's website... it's been picking at my head for awhile lol


Link

Click right below the regular one.
Quoting 2081. washingtonian115:
Their's a impressive trough off the east coast.


Isn't there always? lol
2089. Thrawst
Quoting 2087. JLPR2:


Link

Click right below the regular one.


LOL! Wow... I should be named the blindest WU member of the night.
Quoting 2088. KoritheMan:


Isn't there always? lol
It's called Captin save the U.S.lol.
Quoting 2088. KoritheMan:


Isn't there always? lol

so far it's been trough after trough after trough
132 hrs

Quoting 2066. Chicklit:

post it!
87 hrs is nothing when they've been posting 384 hr models lol.
besides, I've heard 144 hrs. is when you begin to enter dreamland.


yeah anything after 144 always changes
anything less than 144 may change from time to time

out to 72 is the best depiction likely to reflect

models used for guidance only and do not depict final outcome to any one single event
Quoting 2090. washingtonian115:
It's called Captin save the U.S.lol.


La dee dah dee dah
2095. ncstorm
whomp whomp

138 hours

Quoting 2084. Thrawst:


How do you find hi-res models on Levi's website... it's been picking at my head for awhile lol
Here you go Thwrast. Link
Storm look worse and worse each time image is posted... GFS is about to kill it.
2098. GatorWX
Quoting 2022. JustDucky251:


That is an interesting thought. I wonder how much pressure radio waves give on various materials per sq meter?


Honestly, I have no idea, but I've been thinking a lot.
The 00z GFS shows the Bermuda ridge becoming too potent (which is interesting because the NAO is returning to a more neutral/negative state) and subsequently leads to a very fast motion for the developing system. That's why it kills it. Still has a nice moisture bubble and an anticyclone.

Quoting 2091. Chicklit:

so far it's been trough after trough after trough


Well no, this year is actually different, and for once there's data to support it (I can pull up it if you'd like).

I was mainly being tongue-in-cheek with my comment to wash, although there was certainly some seriousness in there too, lol, because troughs have been the story since 2009.
its a tropical storm in five days from now.
2102. GatorWX
It's what happens up there that affects what happens down here.
Quoting 2092. Civicane49:
132 hrs

Hey look it's the heart again in the middle of the ridge.
Quoting 2085. Camille33:
The african wave will form into a storm by wendesday,I am starting to feel very confident.


I normally get confident after I see a rotating cyclonic rotation with a sustain area of convective mass within the cyclonic turning of a reflective system for a minimum of 12 hrs
2105. Gearsts
2106. ncstorm
147 hours
The trend is getting closer to a CV. Thats the massage.
Quoting 2103. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey look it's the heart again in the middle of the ridge.


How about that? lol
Quoting 2091. Chicklit:

so far it's been trough after trough after trough
maybe a fish storm or out to sea.
Welp that escalated quickly..
2111. sar2401
Quoting JLPR2:


Link

Click right below the regular one.

Yes, you will then get a much higher resolution in terms of data for any particular time in the model run. Unfortunately, it will still be wrong. :-)
Quoting 2101. hurricanes2018:
its a tropical storm in five days from now.


Since when are we using lower tropospheric vorticity to determine the technical status of a modeled low pressure area?
156 hrs

2114. ncstorm
156 hours
Quoting 2113. Civicane49:
Been using photoshop again.
Quoting 2112. KoritheMan:


Since when are we using lower tropospheric vorticity to determine the technical status of a modeled low pressure area?
Since they have so many grids and parameters available.
The high has been killing the storms so far this year.
Quoting 2112. KoritheMan:


Since when are we using lower tropospheric vorticity to determine the technical status of a modeled low pressure area?

hmmmm......
2119. JLPR2
Interesting.
2120. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 00z GFS shows the Bermuda ridge becoming too potent (which is interesting because the NAO is returning to a more neutral/negative state) and subsequently leads to a very fast motion for the developing system. That's why it kills it. Still has a nice moisture bubble and an anticyclone.


There sure ain't much land left to hit to the left of the 1016 line, that's for sure.
Quoting 2117. washingtonian115:
The high has been killing the storms so far this year.
But when conditions get more ideal...nothing will kill them.
Hey look, it came back.

Wait wait it seems to becoming back alive..
2124. ncstorm
165 hours..here we go

Storm is not giving up at 156 HR. 1012 mb... but full res drop it to 1006 mb at same time frame. Simulated satellite image is also showing tighter core... I think this run is not done.

2126. Thrawst
Quoting 2117. washingtonian115:
The high has been killing the storms so far this year.


Yes, it has killed a total of one storm. Which in retrospect probably shouldn't have developed in the first place. :P
No fish storm....the west based neg nao that will form = trough inland great lakes - southeast...no east based neg nao guys.I have 100% confidence this is not going out to sea.
2128. Thrawst
Quoting 2123. washingtonian115:
Wait wait it seems to becoming back alive..


I ran out of popcorn Washi :/s
2129. JLPR2
Quoting 2122. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hey look, it came back.



I cant believe I managed to post something faster than you. 0.o
Hang on folks... this run is not done. It's strengthening again now at 162 HR.
Quoting 2123. washingtonian115:
Wait wait it seems to becoming back alive..
Washi this is going to be good, I may try to sleep in like a baby this weekend, going to need all my stamina to track this one.
I think it's cool for Levi that you vet weathernerds are using his graphics. Kudos to 32.
May he live long and prosper!
Quoting 2128. Thrawst:


I ran out of popcorn Washi :/s
The big bucket is available.You can also refill with no charge necessary :).
Not giving up.

Quoting 2132. Chicklit:
I think it's cool for Levi that you vet weathernerds are using his graphics. Kudos to 32.
May he live long and prosper!
THIS!!! His models graphics are better IMO for hurricanes and he got simulated satellite image as well.
2136. hu2007
ummmmm
Quoting 2132. Chicklit:
I think it's cool for Levi that you vet weathernerds are using his graphics. Kudos to 32.
May he live long and prosper!
Totally agree, Thank you Levi!
Folks, people are posting two versions of GFS run. Full resolution (showing stronger storm) and regular forecast grid (weaker storm). Be aware.
2139. SLU
Starts to ramp up after 40W.

2140. hu2007
oh ohhhh a hiter???
2141. zampaz
Good Night folks.
Quoting 2138. Bluestorm5:
Folks, people are posting two versions of GFS run. Full resolution (showing stronger storm) and regular forecast grid (weaker storm). Be aware.
which one is more accurate?
Weaken slightly to 1005 mb on full resolution GFS. 177 HR.

Northern Islands better be on alert,once system rounds 50w...and is getting on the weaker side of the high...it will take off quickly.Dry air near africa is modest for this time of year...shear is close 0 due to anticyclone.No major inhibitors other than motion.
Quoting 2139. SLU:
Starts to ramp up after 40W.

What a ridge!
Quoting 2134. Civicane49:
Not giving up.


you lose me at 171 hours
please keep it realistic
183 hrs

2149. ncstorm
183 hours
2150. JLPR2
Quoting 2138. Bluestorm5:
Folks, people are posting two versions of GFS run. Full resolution (showing stronger storm) and regular forecast grid (weaker storm). Be aware.


That is no surprise. The better resolution the better the model will estimate the barometric pressure. it is a global model afterall.

I remember it showed Felix in 2007 as a TS when it was a cat 5 because the storm was too small. XD
Quoting 2148. washingtonian115:
She's a wrestler.
2152. ncstorm
192 hours
Quoting 2135. Bluestorm5:
THIS!!! His models graphics are better IMO for hurricanes and he got simulated satellite image as well.

I'm so happy for all of you.
But when you get too far out you lose the rest of us.
Another tool closer in might be necessary rather than the same models only long range (that's a challenge!)
have a nice evening boys.
am proud of all of you!
2154. beell
Quoting 2112. KoritheMan:


Since when are we using lower tropospheric vorticity to determine the technical status of a modeled low pressure area?


It's not in your toolbox??
Quoting 2142. unknowncomic:
which one is more accurate?
Full resolution.
Quoting 2153. Chicklit:

I'm so happy for all of you.
But when you get too far out you lose the rest of us.
Another tool closer in might be necessary rather than the same models only long range (that's a challenge!)
have a nice evening boys.
am proud of all of you!
It is showing a strong wave in short term 3 days from now, that's for sure. It's almost time to start watching the waves again.
2157. hu2007
look like that a westerlie is going to kill that storm near the carribean by 190 hours
2158. SLU
Quoting 2145. GTstormChaserCaleb:
What a ridge!


It's going to come into play come August. Notice how the northward-biased GFS isn't even taking its "ghost" storms out to sea this year unlike in every other year.

2159. ncstorm
252 hours..down there by hispanola

Quoting 2158. SLU:


It's going to come into play come August. Notice how the northward-biased GFS isn't even taking its "ghost" storms out to sea this year unlike in every other year.

Yes, but still could be Monster troughs.
Looks like hispaniola will kill the storm if shear doesn't.
Quoting 2157. hu2007:
look like that a westerlie is going to kill that storm near the carribean by 190 hours
Nice catch. GFS totally kill it by 204 HR.
228 hrs. looks like it goes right over Hispaniola:

2164. hu2007
hmmmm??? interesting indeed
2165. Gearsts
Where will it go?lol
Chantal?.Is that you?!?
Quoting 2162. Bluestorm5:
Nice catch. GFS totally kill it by 204 HR.
Slight change of course and it may survive...starting to look interesting now.
2168. ncstorm
300 hours..look at africa..
I've seen enough, I think. We might have to start watching Africa now for a wave. Possible tropical wave in 3 days.
Quoting 2148. washingtonian115:
You can do it. Chug on that popcorn! Chug! Chug! Chug! The GFS is getting very interesting.
2171. hu2007
Quoting 2162. Bluestorm5:
Nice catch. GFS totally kill it by 204 HR.
:)
Quoting 2167. unknowncomic:
Slight change of course and it may survive...starting to look interesting now.
There's no trace of storm after 204 HR, lol. Nothing. It didn't make it.
2173. Cat5hit
No Cat5 being forecasted yet?

That's good.
I still come to the conclusion anything past 200 hours is really inaccurate. First off the resolution lowers even in the full resolution grids and there were plenty of storms in the past one off the back Irene that was constantly being shown plowing into Florida after 200 hrs.
2175. Gearsts
Oh look the GFS is not alone.
2176. sar2401
Quoting GatorWX:


Honestly, I have no idea, but I've been thinking a lot.

Well, a laser is just a different form of radio wave, being up in the near light spectrum. The only real issues with energy produced by a sealed Co2 type laser is the source of power for amplification and heat dissipation. If those two issues can be solved, a laser of theoretically unlimited power could be produced. There are currently experimental military Co2 continuous wave lasers that (we believe, top secret stuff) can pentrate and destroy the most heavily armored tanks made and, with several seconds of wave emmision, be able to sink any vessel afloat. Except for the fact that 2 seconds of CW laser emissions produce about 2100 degrees centigrade at the source and requires the equivalent of the electrical power used by a city of about 50,000 to provide the amplification, it's just about ready for the shrink wrap phase now. :-)
2177. hu2007
Quoting 2166. washingtonian115:
Chantal?.Is that you?!?
maybe is he brother :D
2178. ncstorm
360 hours and a waste of popcorn

2179. Gearsts
This is full resolution simulated satellite at 174 when the storm was at the strongest of this 00z GFS run. You can see a large storm going toward Puerto Rico. Look like a tropical storm to me with that shape. Who knows. We'll have to keep watching the runs and see how the wave will perform starting in few days from now.

Hisss(I put it like that because it's suppose to sound like a deadly snake that kills,which hispaniola kills storms)paniola wins the battle again.
Quoting 2175. Gearsts:
Oh look the GFS is not alone.
Good catch. Now we see what Queen Euro shows.
Quoting 2148. washingtonian115:

LoL....00Z GFS weaker and killed the storm just before hit PR, probably by the shear...
2184. Gearsts
Levi was saying something about the GEM not hyping African waves and when it does, it will have to be watch.
Good evening and good night, one post for me tonight (at least here on the Dr's)

2186. GatorWX
I'm basing it solely on this image, but there looks to be a nice low pressure area about the enter the Atlantic. There's two great horned owls going nut in my neighborhood, it's pretty cool, gnight.
Big time storm coming to the northern islands...likely to weaker some if it interacts with land.The tutt low is moving north and the storm is going between a tutt low and a tutt low...favoring an upper high at that angle.Thus shear is not an issue.
Quoting 2181. washingtonian115:
Hisss(I put it like that because it's suppose to sound like a deadly snake that kills,which hispaniola kills storms)paniola wins the battle again.
I can't think of the word, but it's a good thing for the CONUS, but a bad thing for the people in Haiti. It's a win/lost situation.
2189. Cat5hit
Quoting 2181. washingtonian115:
Hisss(I put it like that because it's suppose to sound like a deadly snake that kills,which hispaniola kills storms)paniola wins the battle again.


Lol...
Quoting 2182. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good catch. Now we see what Queen Euro shows.

Please don't mock the euro man,I value that model above all.
2191. sar2401
Quoting Gearsts:
Oh look the GFS is not alone.

There is clearly something wrong with the 102 hour CMC, since it does not show a hurricane off the Panhandle about to plow into my house. I'm sure that will resolved as it gets out about 300 hours or so. :-)
Well we got two models on board and the Nogaps (what ever it's called now) also shows a strong wave/weak t.D by africa.So it will be watched..and with that I'm off to bed.Good night.
2193. Gearsts
Guys notice how the GFS kills the TC at 204 when it looses resolution.
Quoting 2192. washingtonian115:
Well we got two models on board and the Nogaps (what ever it's called now) also shows a strong wave/weak t.D by africa.So it will be watched..and with that I'm off to bed.Good night.
Have a goodnight Washi! Get some good rest this weekend, I forsee a lot of long nights in the future.
2195. JLPR2
And there's our TW nearing 5W.

Quoting 2190. Camille33:

Please don't mock the euro man,I value that model above all.


LOL... Euro is doing POORLY this year. Beside, it's never designed for tropical predictions. Neither is GFS or CMC. They're all global models.
Quoting 2195. JLPR2:
And there's our TW nearing 5W.

I want to know was that the same wave over Ethiopia 2 days ago?
2198. Gearsts
Shear kills it
Definitely watch this wave over Mali once it exits the African coast by 2-3 days.

2200. sar2401
Quoting GatorWX:
I'm basing it solely on this image, but there looks to be a nice low pressure area about the enter the Atlantic. There's two great horned owls going nut in my neighborhood, it's pretty cool, gnight.

GN, Gator
2201. JLPR2
Quoting 2197. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I want to know was that the same wave over Ethiopia 2 days ago?


You got me there, but probably, though it wasnt as distinct back then
2202. sar2401
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well we got two models on board and the Nogaps (what ever it's called now) also shows a strong wave/weak t.D by africa.So it will be watched..and with that I'm off to bed.Good night.

GN, Wash
Quoting 2188. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I can't think of the word, but it's a good thing for the CONUS, but a bad thing for the people in Haiti. It's a win/lost situation.
And how often that many hours in advance is the track exactly accurate?
Quoting 2190. Camille33:

Please don't mock the euro man,I value that model above all.
I like the Euro, but it hasn't been performing as well lately. Still when the Euro and GFS model agree on something developing pay close attention.
2205. hu2007
maybe maybe not :D i think it will be chantal all over the only diference is that this storm looking alotttt BIGGER!
2206. Gearsts
GEM moves the system NW in to a wall of shear because it develops a low near Bermuda lol
Las Vegas Strip is flooding...

2208. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Good evening and good night, one post for me tonight (at least here on the Dr's)


GN, Astro
Quoting 2203. unknowncomic:
And how often that many hours in advance is the track exactly accurate?
Revert back to post 2174. Shucks even in 8 hrs. the models flop upon landfall ala Charley.
Quoting 2185. Astrometeor:
Good evening and good night, one post for me tonight (at least here on the Dr's)

Take it easy, Astro...hope the weather cooperates on your end.
2211. nigel20
Hey guys! What's up?

AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 26m

Rotating storms just north of Rapid City, SD producing hail up to one inch in diameter. Radar: http://ow.ly/n9fpE
At least the gfs is showing action before July ends.
2213. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Las Vegas Strip is flooding...


Explain this one to me, from the Local Storm Reports out of Vegas:

07/19/2013 0731 PM

3 miles E of downtown las v, Clark County.

Flash flood, reported by airplane pilot.


Flood and debis over the curb near the corner of Pecos
ans stweart.




Quoting 2198. Gearsts:
Shear kills it
Now what if that shear is not there how does that influence the track and strength of the system?
2215. sar2401
Quoting nigel20:
Hey guys! What's up?

AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 26m

Rotating storms just north of Rapid City, SD producing hail up to one inch in diameter. Radar: http://ow.ly/n9fpE

Good evening/morning, Nigel. Just hot and humid here. Got .02" from one shower earlier today, but now the entire 10% AOI seems to completely collapsing, and I have clear skies and 75 here in SE Alabama.
I believe that is the TUTT south of Jamaica and streaming up towards Hispaniola. Both the GFS and CMC show it:



2217. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Las Vegas Strip is flooding...


Doesn't take much in Vegas. Only had .22" as of midnight PDT. All the drainage systems are terrible, and a few minutes of inch an hour rainfall is all it takes before you come out from the casino to find your car floating in the parking lot.
2218. nigel20
Quoting sar2401:

Good evening/morning, Nigel. Just hot and humid here. Got .02" from one shower earlier today, but now the entire 10% AOI seems to completely collapsing, and I have clear skies and 75 here in SE Alabama.

It was most dry and windy today with isolated showers in eastern Jamaica. We had wind gusts in excess of 30knots across Jamaica.
2219. nigel20
Quoting sar2401:

Doesn't take much in Vegas. Only had .22" as of midnight PDT. All the drainage systems are terrible, and a few minutes of inch an hour rainfall is all it takes before you come out from the casino to find your car floating in the parking lot.

Is the city of Las Vegas in a low lying area or is the flooding as a result of poor drainage overall?
both. it's surrounded by mountains, AND the infrastructure is wholly inadequate.

Quoting 2219. nigel20:

Is the city of Las Vegas in a low lying area or is the flooding as a result of poor drainage overall?
Max Mayfield: "NHC forecasters should never issue forecasts on a significant tropical cyclone threatening land areas w/o aircraft recon"
2223. sar2401
Quoting nigel20:

Is the city of Las Vegas in a low lying area or is the flooding as a result of poor drainage overall?

It's in a kind of bowl surrounded by mountains. It's a typical desert environment, with very little vegetation and lots of "desert pavement" surface, which is almost like real pavement, with the rocks and sand all glued together by a form of varnish from the heat. Combine that with a city of 2 million people that was a railroad juction with about 300 people 100 years ago, and every storm that comes through causes some flooding somewhere in the Vegas Valley.
2224. nigel20
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
both. it's surrounded by mountains, AND the infrastructure is wholly inadequate.


Quoting sar2401:

It's in a kind of bowl surrounded by mountains. It's a typical desert environment, with very little vegetation and lots of "desert pavement" surface, which is almost like real pavement, with the rocks and sand all glued together by a form of varnish from the heat. Combine that with a city of 2 million people that was a railroad juction with about 300 people 100 years ago, and every storm that comes through causes some flooding somewhere in the Vegas Valley.

Thanks guys!
2225. sar2401
Given the quickly evaporating appearance of the 10% blob, I'm amazed the NHC hung on to it for the 0200 update. Either it was written about 2200 and everyone went home or they are just bored looking at all that empty ocean and want something to show visitors. :-)
Not very bright future for NHC and Hurricane Hunters...

Link
I'm out. See y'all at 6 pm.
2228. sar2401
Quoting nigel20:


Thanks guys!

It's a neat place to go when it's not summer or when it's not snowing. It's at about 2200 feet and does get snow every five years or so, which snarls things up worse than the monsoon. It's kind of like an adult version of Disney World. Even if you hate gambling, it's worth it just to see the Strip and Downtown at night.
2229. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm out. See y'all at 6 pm.

GN, Blue, have a good day.
2230. nigel20
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm out. See y'all at 6 pm.

Good night Blue!
Issued: Jul 19, 2013 8:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140W and 180.

1. A weak area of low pressure about 725 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms as it moves toward the west at about 10 mph. Upper level winds are not favorable for development, and there is a very low chance, near 0 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday evening.
I'm out. Later all.
2233. nigel20
Quoting sar2401:

It's a neat place to go when it's not summer or when it's not snowing. It's at about 2200 feet and does get snow every five years or so, which snarls things up worse than the monsoon. It's kind of like an adult version of Disney World. Even if you hate gambling, it's worth it just to see the Strip and Downtown at night.

Thanks for the info, Sar! We have at town in central Jamaica known as Mandeville. It's at about 600m above sea level, but it is very warm and humid in the summer...it can get pretty cool in the winter as well.

I think that we should integrate casinos with our tourism product. Singapore did that in 2006 and is currently a strong competitor in the gaming sector. We get about 2 million stop over arrivals annually, but I think we could get a lot more through medical, sports, cultural tourism..etc
2234. nigel20
Quoting Civicane49:
I'm out. Later all.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend, Civicane!
2235. nigel20
It seems as If I'm the only one on, so good night all!
2236. Gearsts
PR is a target this year for sure.
a couple of iphone pictures as storms pass to my south on Friday evening first round





another shot
2240. NotJFV
Quoting 2239. hurricanes2018:

It's looks like it might end up being a wonderful game of dodgeball for the east coast and FL this year with that Bermuda high setup we might end up having. I haven't forgotten the Carribean or Gulf Coast but just responding to your map.
I think it'll all depend how busy a year it ends up being as to whether either one ends up getting hit and yes I know it's only July. I just have a little bit of a bad feeling about this one this year.
2241. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee is perked for when you get here enjoy!..
2242. LargoFl
Flash Flood watch for These Florida Counties-Saturday.....Flash Flood Watch for:
Calhoun
Central Walton
Coastal Bay
Coastal Dixie
Coastal Franklin
Coastal Gulf
Coastal Jefferson
Coastal Taylor
Coastal Wakulla
Gadsden
Holmes
Inland Bay
Inland Dixie
Inland Franklin
Inland Gulf
Inland Jefferson
Inland Taylor
Inland Wakulla
Jackson
Lafayette
Leon
Liberty
Madison
North Walton
South Walton
Washington
2243. LargoFl
GFS has something at 192 hours.......................
2244. VR46L
Morning Folks

00Z GFS run is kinda interesting .... Chantal #2



...Its dead Jim a few hours later

2245. GatorWX
Quoting 2228. sar2401:

It's a neat place to go when it's not summer or when it's not snowing. It's at about 2200 feet and does get snow every five years or so, which snarls things up worse than the monsoon. It's kind of like an adult version of Disney World. Even if you hate gambling, it's worth it just to see the Strip and Downtown at night.


They are as anxious and weary as us. With that said, there has always been quite a bit of a surface presence associated with the eastern semicircle of our our ull and now there's a tw moving into the area. Shear is low and 10 out of 100 is not a particularly high number. That's my explanation anyway. And morning folks.

Quoting 2243. LargoFl:
GFS has something at 192 hours.......................


Largo, things are bout to pop. August.........oi. Lets not see eny Chantals, ie weak, entering the Carib with low shear and a huge amount of moisture in the GOM and NW Carib eh? Seems inevitable though. This whole pattern, although I could see a TUTT setting up pretty easily, I do not see another huge ull dropping down. Look at this and tell me what's going to keep shear values up (knowing the mean flow of the steering lately). We have the current ull slowly going away. Anyway, just a thought. Things are changing. It certainly seems so to me

I see the 00z GFS run has backed off a bit from the 18z.
00Z


18Z


CMC


I was looking at the moon last night, and I told my wife, "By the time the moon is full, there will be a storm." Zero evidence to back that up, just thought it sounded cool; made me feel American Indianish.
2247. GatorWX
Kinda looks like a giant slushy from 7 Eleven with no color. Sigh



A lot of people talk about soot as far as dark, warming particles go. Water certainly is much darker than white powdery snow, right? Asking, not telling.
Absolutely Gator. Masters has mentioned that in the past. The situation exacerbates itself.

Dexter's up and telling me it's time to go. Catch up to you in a while with our GM pics...
Good morning. The 6z GFS develops the CV storm again, and so far is basically a cross between the more aggressive 18z run and the weaker 0z run).


Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 9 h
Destructive cold outbreak underway for South America thru Paraguay into Brazil main growing regions.

Link
288 hours- it went far enough north to miss the Caribbean islands so was able to strengthen:


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1 h
US generated climate model insists on cool 45 days in front of much of the nation. Very little run to run change


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1 h
Destructive freeze into S America, Global Ace 2/3 normal..NO TROPICAL ACTIVITY ANYWHERE on July 20. Heck of a way to run a global warmupLink
2253. GatorWX
Quoting 2251. MAweatherboy1:
288 hours- it went far enough north to miss the Caribbean islands so was able to strengthen:



Looking at all the recent long range model posts certainly tells me one thing. The East coast is perhaps more at risk from cv's. Here in my region and the GOM, I feel it won't be what "develops" east of the islands. Time.....
2254. GatorWX
Deep in thought listening to Floyd at 630 in the morning is always fun. Have a great day people.
It almost had enough room to miss the East Coast, just barely stayed offshore of the Carolinas, but then clips Cape Cod as it accelerates:



It looks to be a fairly large storms this run, though not particularly intense, maybe a Cat 1 at peak.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 9 h
Better get ready to pay more for coffee. Another freeze coming for Brazil Link
2257. Pallis
Quoting 2256. Luisport:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 9 h
Better get ready to pay more for coffee. Another freeze coming for Brazil Link
Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.
2258. GatorWX
Quoting 2256. Luisport:
Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 9 h
Better get ready to pay more for coffee. Another freeze coming for Brazil Link


35-40 degree F anomalies, wow. La Nina on its way?
It's not at all unusual for temperatures to drop below freezing in Paraguay and southern Brazil during winter. In fact, the coffee-growing regions there often see frost and snow at this time of year, with single-digit Fahrenheit temps occurring from time to time..

At any rate, in the good news department for coffee-guzzlers, meteorologists have moderated their forecasts:

"ICE September arabicas were up 0.40 cent, or 0.3 percent, at $1.2795 per lb by 12:31 pm EDT (1631 GMT), remaining well below a seven-week high of $1.3400 touched on Thursday, driven by concerns over forecasts for rains and frost in Brazil. Brazilian forecaster Somar reported Friday it is still awaiting the risk of "light frost and damaging temperatures", but that it no longer expects the cold front to bring bitter cold to Mogiana and southern Minas Gerais next week.

"US-based World Weather, Inc, removed the potential for crop damaging cold from its Brazilian forecast. US-based MDA Weather Services lowered its chance of frost just south of the coffee growing region in Parana to 30 percent, from 60 percent, between July 24-28."


(IOW: JB is just being JB...)
2260. pottery
Quoting Pallis:
Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.

I've seen some incredibly amazing posts here over the years.
This one ranks in the top 10.
2261. GatorWX
Quoting 2256. Luisport:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 9 h
Better get ready to pay more for coffee. Another freeze coming for Brazil Link


I'd like to see the same chart, but for a period of time rather than a particular moment in time. A chart with at least a two week avg anomaly would certainly be much more useful.
Quoting 2259. Neapolitan:
It's not at all unusual for temperatures to drop below freezing in Paraguay and southern Brazil during winter. In fact, the coffee-growing regions there often see frost and snow at this time of year, with single-digit Fahrenheit temps occurring from time to time..

At any rate, in the good news department for coffee-guzzlers, meteorologists have moderated their forecasts:

"ICE September arabicas were up 0.40 cent, or 0.3 percent, at $1.2795 per lb by 12:31 pm EDT (1631 GMT), remaining well below a seven-week high of $1.3400 touched on Thursday, driven by concerns over forecasts for rains and frost in Brazil. Brazilian forecaster Somar reported Friday it is still awaiting the risk of "light frost and damaging temperatures", but that it no longer expects the cold front to bring bitter cold to Mogiana and southern Minas Gerais next week.

"US-based World Weather, Inc, removed the potential for crop damaging cold from its Brazilian forecast. US-based MDA Weather Services lowered its chance of frost just south of the coffee growing region in Parana to 30 percent, from 60 percent, between July 24-28."


(IOW: JB is just being JB...)
Ok a few F degrees it's ok, but -30F??? It's pure crazyness!
2263. GatorWX
Quoting 2260. pottery:

I've seen some incredibly amazing posts here over the years.
This one ranks in the top 10.


ha, idk, but funny
2264. LargoFl
geez yet another day for these bad storms for us...........
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
SOME POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH.
ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO HAS CAUSED THE GROUND TO
BECOME SATURATED AND SOME RIVERS TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS TO FLOOD. MINOR URBAN FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS.
Quoting 2257. Pallis:
Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.
Are you Bobby Boucher's mother?
2266. Grothar
Quoting 2257. Pallis:
Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.
If coffee is "the devil's brew", call me Satan. ;-)

It is a stimulant, yes. But so are tea and chocolate; would you consider people who enjoy those as unpatriotic, as well? Anyway, conditions conducive to growing coffee beans overlap with those needed for growing coca--and with the artificially high prices for coca leaves created by our eternal and fruitless "war on drugs", why wouldn't any patriotic capitalist farmer choose to grow those over coffee?
2268. LargoFl
Dont worry folks..this Blogs coffee is Free..so drink up LOL
2269. Grothar
GFS at 348 hours

Quoting 2262. Luisport:
Ok a few F degrees it's ok, but -30F??? It's pure crazyness!
Where did you see -30F? I've not seen a single forecast calling for temperatures like that in the lower agricultural regions...

EDIT: Okay, I just looked at the older GFS map which shows a small strip of -30C temperatures in southern Brazil next Wednesday. Take it to the bank: that is not going to happen.
2271. LargoFl
Quoting 2270. Neapolitan:
Where did you see -30F? I've not seen a single forecast calling for temperatures like that in the lower agricultural regions...
I this is agricultural regions... but there are people there not used to this brutal conditions. Link
2273. pcola57
Quoting 2269. Grothar:
GFS at 348 hours



Mornin' Gro..
Me no likey.. :(
2274. GatorWX
Quoting 2264. LargoFl:
geez yet another day for these bad storms for us...........
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
SOME POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH.
ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO HAS CAUSED THE GROUND TO
BECOME SATURATED AND SOME RIVERS TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS TO FLOOD. MINOR URBAN FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS.


Yea, but look at next Tue and Wed. It shows 0% currently, fingers crossed. Atmosphere stabilizing a bit until later into next week. Mostly low numbers and zeros until midweek, but then back up to 50's and 60's. Strange weather this summer. There was another reverse training storm in my town yesterday that dumped 3-4" in about 1.5 hrs. I feel like these types of events are usually early morning ordeals, however our air temps have certainly been cooler than avg from the absolute abundance of moisture out there and jet patterns so maybe that makes a particular difference. Overall though, there's been so much convectivity in the region I've been focusing on which is the GOM and NW Carib/Bahamas. If the overall dynamics don't change quite drastically and quickly, it'd certainly appear to me this might be the steering we'll see with only slight variations. Northern GOM I feel would look most at risk as well as anywhere really along the e coast US, but I'm no expert. I'd also assume shear is about to begin falling a bit considerably as it has been in the GOM across the western Caribbean. Alright, I gotta stop thinking this hard this early lol. Hope it's decent in Tampa today.
2275. Grothar
Quoting 2273. pcola57:


Mornin' Gro..
Me no likey.. :(


Then take one from column A and one from column B
2276. GatorWX
Quoting 2269. Grothar:
GFS at 348 hours



That kinda looks like Sandy! Hmmm....I really dont like the steering this summer. Have we not been kind of stuck in a Sandy type pattern up there? At least in that single region?
Quoting 2259. Neapolitan:
It's not at all unusual for temperatures to drop below freezing in Paraguay and southern Brazil during winter. In fact, the coffee-growing regions there often see frost and snow at this time of year, with single-digit Fahrenheit temps occurring from time to time..

At any rate, in the good news department for coffee-guzzlers, meteorologists have moderated their forecasts:

"ICE September arabicas were up 0.40 cent, or 0.3 percent, at $1.2795 per lb by 12:31 pm EDT (1631 GMT), remaining well below a seven-week high of $1.3400 touched on Thursday, driven by concerns over forecasts for rains and frost in Brazil. Brazilian forecaster Somar reported Friday it is still awaiting the risk of "light frost and damaging temperatures", but that it no longer expects the cold front to bring bitter cold to Mogiana and southern Minas Gerais next week.

"US-based World Weather, Inc, removed the potential for crop damaging cold from its Brazilian forecast. US-based MDA Weather Services lowered its chance of frost just south of the coffee growing region in Parana to 30 percent, from 60 percent, between July 24-28."


(IOW: JB is just being JB...)



As much cold and snow they've been prognosticating is unusual, however.

Nea is just being Nea.
2278. pcola57
Quoting 2275. Grothar:


Then take one from column A and one from column B


LOL..
Seriously though..
Been getting what you got 2 days ago so far this am..
I don't know the rain rate..
And at this time in the morning I don't care..
Just me and my great cup of luxourious Brazillian coffee are friends, forever LOl..
Drying out yet there?
Quoting 2278. pcola57:


LOL..
Seriously though..
Been getting what you got 2 days ago so far this am..
I don't know the rain rate..
And at this time in the morning I don't care..
Just me and my great cup of luxourious Brazillian coffee are friends, forever LOl..
Drying out yet there?


G'morning neighbor!
2280. pcola57
Quoting 2279. PensacolaDoug:


G'morning neighbor!


Hey Doug..
How's it going on the Bayou De Grande?
Quoting 2280. pcola57:


Hey Doug..
How's it going on the Bayou De Grande?


Wet. I gotta go out and work in Myrtle Grove by 7:30... Drag.
Down to 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
DIMINISHED AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2283. pcola57
Quoting 2281. PensacolaDoug:


Wet. I gotta go out and work in Myrtle Grove by 7:30... Drag.


Hey I live in Myrtle Grove..
Come on over..
Make before 8:30 though as I gotta go get a cat nutered..
It makes me sad.. :(
Glad my keeper didn't nuter me.. :)
2284. GatorWX
Strong front too for northern NE. I'm not sure what things have been like that far north, but perhaps a sign the jet is changing a bit, the start of something. I'm outta time, gotta get ready for work. Looks pretty stable on the Pacific side however. Alright I'm out.
Quoting 2283. pcola57:


Hey I live in Myrtle Grove..
Come on over..
Make before 8:30 though as I gotta go get a cat nutered..
It makes me sad.. :(
Glad my keeper didn't nuter me.. :)



RUN CAT RUN!
2286. barbamz


Good morning and bye for the weekend as well. I'm out for some hiking and BBQ. You see it's hot in Germany and forecast tells us it will be even hotter next week (blame the jet stream, lol). Well, it's summer :)
Have a nice weekend everybody!
2287. Grothar
Quoting 2278. pcola57:


LOL..
Seriously though..
Been getting what you got 2 days ago so far this am..
I don't know the rain rate..
And at this time in the morning I don't care..
Just me and my great cup of luxourious Brazillian coffee are friends, forever LOl..
Drying out yet there?


Drying out today, but looks like a batch is heading our way. I am sipping my favorite Columbian brew this morning. Ever since Juan Valdez, I just love it.
2288. pcola57
Quoting 2287. Grothar:


Drying out today, but looks like a batch is heading our way. I am sipping my favorite Columbian brew this morning. Ever since Juan Valdez, I just love it.


Heck of a guy that Juan..
1 burro and walked all the way to Publix..
He's on my Xmas card list.. :)

Quoting 2285. PensacolaDoug:



RUN CAT RUN!


Actually little thing doesn't stand a chance..
Leader of the family (my mother ) has declared it so and that means it's a certanty..
Poor little sucker.. :)
2289. Grothar
Quoting 2286. barbamz:


Good morning and bye for the weekend as well. I'm out for some hiking and BBQ. You see it's hot in Germany and forecast tells us it will be even hotter next week (blame the jet stream, lol). Well, it's summer :)
Have a nice weekend everybody!


Ah, You always bring back memories, but where is my Heidelberg to remind me of my school days?
2290. Grothar
Quoting 2281. PensacolaDoug:


Wet. I gotta go out and work in Myrtle Grove by 7:30... Drag.


You're still working at your age??
2291. Grothar
Quoting 2283. pcola57:


Hey I live in Myrtle Grove..
Come on over..
Make before 8:30 though as I gotta go get a cat nutered..
It makes me sad.. :(
Glad my keeper didn't nuter me.. :)


I'm sure the cat is not overjoyed much either!
06Z GFS run was... um... interesting. 06z was much slower developing the storm than last two runs. Don't trust the 986 mb part, though. That's far out and it'll change for sure. CMC still got the storm, although it's much weaker and kill it in Caribbeans
Quoting 2292. Bluestorm5:
06Z GFS run was... um... interesting. 06z was much slower developing the storm than last two runs. Don't trust the 986 mb part, though. That's far out and it'll change for sure. CMC still got the storm, although it's much weaker and kill it in Caribbeans


And 06Z didn't killed it after 192 hours because it didn't go thru the Greater Antilles. (Hispanola)
Quoting 2290. Grothar:


You're still working at your age??
And prolly will be till I drop or get to 70 (whichever comes first).
2295. pcola57
Quoting 2286. barbamz:


Good morning and bye for the weekend as well. I'm out for some hiking and BBQ. You see it's hot in Germany and forecast tells us it will be even hotter next week (blame the jet stream, lol). Well, it's summer :)
Have a nice weekend everybody!


Same to you barb..
Hike your little socks off..
That must be fantastic BBQ for all that.. :)
2296. Grothar
Quoting 2294. PensacolaDoug:
And prolly will be till I drop or get to 70 (whichever comes first).


Well, I dropped before I was 70. Take life easy. It's not worth it.
2297. zampaz
Quoting 2283. pcola57:


Hey I live in Myrtle Grove..
Come on over..
Make before 8:30 though as I gotta go get a cat nutered..
It makes me sad.. :(
Glad my keeper didn't nuter me.. :)

Morning folks...
You're doing the right thing. The life of unwanted strays is sad.
Chances are good he'll live A LOT longer, get fewer abscesses from fighting and stay closer to home if he gets out.
Hope you can afford to have him chipped too.
Quoting 2257. Pallis:
Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.

The devil serves coffee? Well count me in then!
It's a comforting thought that when they pry the cup from my cold dead fingers the coffee will go on and on.
2298. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Well, I dropped before I was 70. Take life easy. It's not worth it.


heheheheheh

I'll have another cup of coffee, on that.

Then I'm off to perform a morning of Hard Labour, supervised by a Lady in Boots who is wielding a machete .

The weather?
Hazy, with the promise of sweat.
2299. zampaz
Quoting 2298. pottery:


heheheheheh

I'll have another cup of coffee, on that.

Then I'm off to perform a morning of Hard Labour, supervised by a Lady in Boots who is wielding a machete .

The weather?
Hazy, with the promise of sweat.

Is she single? ;)
Dry air and high wind shear from the west caribean to arfica will remain high for many weeks yet, maybe until mid septemeber...... i can see more then 2 more storms developing this year
2301. pottery
Quoting zampaz:

Is she single? ;)

She might be, soon.
It all depends on how hard she works me today......
2302. Grothar
Quoting 2298. pottery:


heheheheheh

I'll have another cup of coffee, on that.

Then I'm off to perform a morning of Hard Labour, supervised by a Lady in Boots who is wielding a machete .

The weather?
Hazy, with the promise of sweat.


You live a dangerous life pott. Maybe you better have two cups to keep you going today. Just keep telling her how pretty she looks.
Quoting 2257. Pallis:
Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.









2304. Grothar
2305. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


You live a dangerous life pott. Maybe you better have two cups to keep you going today. Just keep telling her how pretty she looks.

I tell her that, and anything else she wants to hear, when she's wielding the machete.

She can be very persuasive, when in that situation.
2306. zampaz
Quoting 2301. pottery:

She might be, soon.
It all depends on how hard she works me today......

Har har har, I understand now :)
Hey, seriously, drink lots of water and don't overheat.
Heat stroke can really sneak up on you esp if you start working in the morning and the temp creeps up you don't notice you're overheating. Happened to me in Yuma Az...
but it's a dry heat...
Yesterday the heat index here got up to 105.

2307. Grothar
I used to work at the Susquehanna coffee factory.

Susquehanna...did you say Susquehanna? ...Slowly I turned, step by by step...........
2308. pottery
Quoting zampaz:

Har har har, I understand now :)
Hey, seriously, drink lots of water and don't overheat.
Heat stroke can really sneak up on you esp if you start working in the morning and the temp creeps up you don't notice you're overheating. Happened to me in Yuma Az...
but it's a dry heat...
Yesterday the heat index here got up to 105.


Thanks for the good advice.
Always aware of the potential for heat issues here.
Water is a must.
Will be eating lots of mangos. They are thick on the ground and the trees there are laden......

Saw a swarm of drunk butterflies last w/e there too.
They were gorging on guava fruit on the ground.
The guava was fermenting and the butterflies were falling over and couldn't fly.
They were all smiling though.....
happy birthday carlos santana wish i could post a clip of his band at woodstock e.cen fl. took it first good dumping in a couple wks it was a soaker.
Quoting 2265. captainmark:
Are you Bobby Boucher's mother?


2311. pcola57
Could this have a hidden meaning?
Is it a pshycological profile?

Just a joke Taz.. :)
I will remove it if you don't like it.. :)



Earth Image of the day

Taz River, Russia - July 20, 2013







Change is often elusive to see, visible only in the contrast between before and after. But on June 18, 2013, the Operational Land Imager on the Landsat 8 satellite captured Russias Taz River in transition (middle image). Ice was breaking up on the river, while sediment-laden spring floods piled up behind the unmoving mass. The wetlands and tributaries surrounding the river were similarly suspended in a half-frozen, half-thawed state. The area had been frozen a little more than a week earlier (June 9), when Landsat 8 acquired the top image, and was entirely ice free just over two weeks later (July 4), when the lower image was acquired.

The Taz River is one of many that drain into the Arctic Ocean and its surrounding seas. But as Arctic rivers go, the Taz is relatively minor. About 33 cubic kilometers of water flow from the river into the Kara Sea every year. The Tazs strongest flow usually occurs in June. By contrast, the largest contributor to the Arctic Ocean, the neighboring Yenisey River, discharges 580 cubic kilometers annually.

The spring thaw sends an annual gush of fresh water into the Arctic Ocean, which is the most dominated by fresh water of all the worlds oceans. This fresh outflow plays a role in sustaining Arctic sea ice. Because it is less dense than salty water, the fresh water sits near the surface and forms a layer that insulates sea ice from deeper, warmer seawater. Contact with the warmer water would cause the sea ice to melt at a faster rate.

Too much fresh water, however, has the potential to interfere with ocean currents; some researchers suspect it could slow the global ocean conveyor belt. For these reasons, scientists are keen to track the output of Arctic rivers. In recent years, scientists noted that Arctic waters near Canada have been growing fresher. A 2012 Nature paper tracked the source of the fresh water to Russias great Arctic rivers. Weather patterns had moved the water from the Asian side of the Arctic to the North American side, though overall Arctic Ocean salinity remained unchanged.
Quoting 2309. islander101010:
happy birthday carlos santana wish i could post a clip of his band at woodstock e.cen fl. took it first good dumping in a couple wks it was a soaker.


The 6Z GFS shows an EARL track XD.
Good morning everyone. I don't drink coffee but I hear it's pretty popular. Barb is reminding me of my school days in Bamberg and volksmarching too. I am seriously considering buying a pair of boots and a machete and I hope this ULL brings rain. :D

so the GFS kills it then shows a recurving storm? like we havent seen that the past 4 years. what about the ECMWF?
Y'all are bored outta your silly little minds I see........ just kidding, hope it's a great weekend for everyone. I imagine things will be picking up in the tropics within the next week or so.
Comment 2300 , What a joke ! LOL.
2319. pcola57
Quoting 2318. EyEtoEyE:
Comment 2300 , What a joke ! LOL.


To each his/her own EyEtoEyE..Lol.. :)
If the fat lady sings after just 2 storms..
Ill kiss her.. :(
Happy Birthday Mr. Santana!
And Good Morning all you wonderful bloggers!

7:24 am (11:24 GMT)

50% chance of rain today here in good ol' Lantana, Florida. Yesterday was the first day in 7 days that we got no precipitation.

Dexter patiently waits for me to take his picture so he get get down from the bench at the end of the dock and go look for crabs (yesterday's pic - today's shots, not so good - I gotta start using a better camera).

FYI - I ordered the CoCoRaHS rain gauge yesterday from Amazon.com. Free shipping (Prime) makes it still the best deal for me @ $35, though they are on sale at another site for $26 + shipping. Supposed to be here on Tuesday.
Good morning..Nothing brewing yet..I guess i need another cup of coffee..
2322. pcola57
Quoting 2320. mikatnight:
Happy Birthday Mr. Santana!
And Good Morning all you wonderful bloggers!

7:24 am (11:24 GMT)

50% chance of rain today here in good ol' Lantana, Florida. Yesterday was the first day in 7 days that we got no precipitation.

Dexter patiently waits for me to take his picture so he get get down from the bench at the end of the dock and go look for crabs (yesterday's pic - today's shots, not so good - I gotta start using a better camera).

FYI - I ordered the CoCoRaHS rain gauge yesterday from Amazon.com. Free shipping (Prime) makes it still the best deal for me @ $35, though they are on sale at another site for $26 + shipping. Supposed to be here on Tuesday.


Morning Mik..
Hey thats an outstanding price..
I've seen the gauge and it's no cheapo..
Quoting 2304. Grothar:
Looks like double trouble.
I guess I should've mentioned the GM pic is pointing in the general direction of Carlos's house on Manalapan island. There used to be occasional sightings, but since the bridge closed all the rich folks are stuck in paradise on the other side.
Quoting 2322. pcola57:


Morning Mik..
Hey thats an outstanding price..
I've seen the gauge and it's no cheapo..


The other site wanted $10 for shipping, Amazon with free shipping beat 'em by about a dollar.
Quoting 2302. Grothar:


You live a dangerous life pott. Maybe you better have two cups to keep you going today. Just keep telling her how pretty she looks.


Compliment her on her shoes. I hear women love that.
Quoting 2316. floridaboy14:
so the GFS kills it then shows a recurving storm? like we havent seen that the past 4 years. what about the ECMWF?


Best I can tell the ECMWF brings the wave into the Carribean and then the top half has a barely there signal at 850 north of Puerto Rico. Maybe the Euro is right or maybe the GFS is with development. Guess we'll see.



Morning all! The odds are in favor of us getting Dorian our of his pattern in the next 5-6 days.
So the big swirling blob I saw in the Gulf yesterday was trying to turn into something. We had some heavy rain here in Panama City earlier but the sun is trying to come out right now.
Out* See why I hate using the iPad? :P
Quoting 2296. Grothar:


Well, I dropped before I was 70. Take life easy. It's not worth it.


And then the year turned 1932..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all! The odds are in favor of us getting Dorian our of his pattern in the next 5-6 days.


last previous seasons have featured pretty substantial ridging across the atlantic only to be replaced by the all familiar eastcoast trof as we get into meat of the season. so well see
2333. Grothar
Quoting 2331. CybrTeddy:


And then the year turned 1932..


He, it was the height of the depression. Jobs weren't easy to find.
2334. SLU
This is probably well overdone. There's no support for the GFS on such significant development apart from a weak vorticity maximum associated with the same wave on the CMC.

The fact that the GFS bust on its last Cape Verde storm doesn't inspire much confidence.



2335. Levi32
Quoting 2332. hurricane23:


last previous seasons have featured pretty substantial ridging across the atlantic only to be replaced by the all familiar eastcoast trof as we get into meat of the season. so well see


That wasn't true the last 2 years.

2012 June-July:



2011 June-July:

Its a butifull day no clouds in sight
Quoting 2335. Levi32:


That wasn't true the last 2 years.

2012 June-July:



2011 June-July:



Good day Levi, what do you think about the latest GFS runs that show possible Dorian in a few days?
The last week of July (this upcoming week) is normally the quiet before the switch goes on in August. There are of course exceptions to this rule.
This may be filed under I'm the last to know anything, but I actually learned something new the other day...dang my husband and his science channel. lol.

For one, you can tell about hurricane history from stalagmites. They supposedly act as a long term rain gauge. At first I didn't know how this would help because the cave they retrieved the stalagmite from, Juan Nieves in Puerto Rico apparently gets rained on A LOT! Including when they filmed the show. But I found the answer to that online. Just thought it was neat that we may be able to learn more about these storms. :)

Hurricanes that roared across Earth's surface long ago left their mark inside stalagmites. This gives us a new way of measuring hurricanes that goes back thousands of years instead of 60 years with meteorological records. It may also add to the data linking global warming to the hurricane patterns of recent years.

The key to reading stalagmites comes from a chemical difference between hurricane raindrops and ordinary raindrops. Hurricanes have tall, cold clouds and very humid air. This means that their raindrops are better at clinging onto oxygen 16 - the lighter isotope of oxygen.
2340. etxwx
Good morning all...it's like the Devil's Brew Vaudeville Club on here this morning...love it!

We've been missing most of the rain, but the temps have been great. Gonna get hot toward the end of the week though.



Dexter is looking particularly feisty and handsome this morning, Mik. BTW, Capt Jack is looking for squirrel patrol recruits, would Dex be interested? Give the little guy an ear scritch for me. :)
Quoting Levi32:


That wasn't true the last 2 years.

2012 June-July:



2011 June-July:



Levi you know what i mean..theres still plenty of time for what seems as the " semi-preminent" eastcoast trof to get established. The GFS in particular has been hinting at this in some runs the last couple of days. Do think though we will soon have something to track as you point out.
2342. SLU
Quoting 2335. Levi32:


That wasn't true the last 2 years.

2012 June-July:



2011 June-July:



... and the pattern of the storm tracks in those years followed the exact atmospheric setup in June and July. If the same pattern remains this year we will see little if any recurvatures.




Quoting SLU:


... and the pattern of the storm tracks in those years followed the exact atmospheric setup in June and July. If the same happens remains this year we will see little if any recurvatures.






Bet says pattern flips to an eastcoast trof soon :0)
2345. Levi32
Quoting 2341. hurricane23:


Levi you know what i mean..theres still plenty of time for what seems as the " semi-preminent" eastcoast trof to get established. The GFS in particular has been hinting at this in some runs the last couple of days. Do think though we will soon have something to track as you point out.


Sure, and we can hope for that. The July 500mb pattern is fairly well correlated with August and September though.
Hi Levi. What is your take on what GFS is showing?
2347. SLU
Quoting 2343. hurricane23:


Bet says pattern flips to an eastcoast trof soon :0)


I wouldn't hold my breath though. The pattern this year is totally different from the last three years.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting 2257. Pallis:
Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.


Wow, that's great- I never touch coffee. Wait, though.... is tea evil too? 'Cause the devil is the least of your worries if you take away my Darjeeling!

This reminds of the Proctor-Gamble controversy back in the 70's.
2349. Levi32
It is true that for the moment the 11-15 day mean on both the GFS and CMC ensembles shows the east coast trough shifting farther east. We'll see how August evolves.



Quoting 2334. SLU:
This is probably well overdone. There's no support for the GFS on such significant development apart from a weak vorticity maximum associated with the same wave on the CMC.

The fact that the GFS bust on its last Cape Verde storm doesn't inspire much confidence.





If it was the CMC I'd agree with you, however seeing as the Euro has been missing nearly everything this year, while the CMC is the well.. CMC, I'd pay attention to the GFS for cyclongenesis. It's getting to the time of year where these things do happen, regardless of model support or not. Odds are, seeing as how unusually early CV season arrived, that we will see it sooner.
2351. Levi32
Quoting 2337. Ricki13th:


Good day Levi, what do you think about the latest GFS runs that show possible Dorian in a few days?


We'll have to watch it. The wave has been trackable over Africa for days. There's not much to say before it gets over water and we can get a better look at it though.
Out for the day, see y'all later.
2353. SLU
Quoting 2350. CybrTeddy:


If it was the CMC I'd agree with you, however seeing as the Euro has been missing nearly everything this year, while the CMC is the well.. CMC, I'd pay attention to the GFS for cyclongenesis. It's getting to the time of year where these things do happen, regardless of model support or not. Odds are, seeing as how unusual early CV season arrived, that we will see it sooner.


Given that the GFS starts to develop the wave in only 3 - 4 days gives it some credence.
Quoting 2320. mikatnight:
Happy Birthday Mr. Santana!
And Good Morning all you wonderful bloggers!

7:24 am (11:24 GMT)

50% chance of rain today here in good ol' Lantana, Florida. Yesterday was the first day in 7 days that we got no precipitation.

Dexter patiently waits for me to take his picture so he get get down from the bench at the end of the dock and go look for crabs (yesterday's pic - today's shots, not so good - I gotta start using a better camera).

FYI - I ordered the CoCoRaHS rain gauge yesterday from Amazon.com. Free shipping (Prime) makes it still the best deal for me @ $35, though they are on sale at another site for $26 + shipping. Supposed to be here on Tuesday.
mik.I saw the other night you lived in Lantana...I lived by you until a few months ago....I was on Lakeside in Lake Worth....Was on the ICW also...Got tired of the expensive upkeep..Now I am enjoying my condo in west Boynton...No yard work,No salt spray.No crazy lady next door.
Quoting 2257. Pallis:
Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.


Devil's brew? Some would argue it's a gift from God. And coffee is grown in many more countries than coca is grown in. This Link contains a map of where coffee beans are grown. As far as I know, something like three countries grow coca.

Lastly, every one of my patriotic family members who have served in the military drank coffee. I don't think one's choice of legal beverage should define their level of patriotism, nor should it be an arbiter of employment.
Quoting 2304. Grothar:


It seems the wave the GFS is depicting is the 2nd wave in the middle about to hit water in about 36 hours or so.
2357. ackee
when do u guys think the tropics will heat up ?

A LATE july
B EARLY AUG
C MID AUG
D SEP


I think the tropics wont heat until C mid AUG I just think we see average tropical activity for the rest of the seasons
Levi, are the anomalies changing in terms of being less favorable meaning less tripole and more colder? Last night the talk on the chat room was about this.
Sorry guys i want to post this map again, this is very important! South America in deep trouble! To be deep in big negative temperatures! Link
Quoting SLU:


I wouldn't hold my breath though. The pattern this year is totally different from the last three years.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


I'am all for it! We shall see
Of all the model runs I usually prefer the 12z GFS. Just speculating is If this wave develops too quickly it would go far North after clipping the NE Caribbean. It will interesting to see what happens once it touches the ocean.
2362. 62901IL
Link
My weather forecast.
Quoting 2359. Luisport:
Sorry guys i want to post this map again, this is very important! South America in deep trouble! To be deep in big negative temperatures! Link
THIS IS IN 4 DAYS!!!
2364. 62901IL
Quoting 2363. Luisport:
THIS IS IN 4 DAYS!!!

You don't need to spam the blog with that!!!
2365. hydrus

2257. Pallis 11:03 AM GMT on July 20, 2013 +0

Quoting 2256. Luisport:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 9 h
Better get ready to pay more for coffee. Another freeze coming for Brazil Link

Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.


I have heard many monikers for coffee, but never " devil,s brew " If someone is addicted to coffee, you can bet they are addicted too many other and much worse things... I drink plenty of coffee, and love my country, and would lay down my life for it if needed. If you do not hire coffee drinkers, do you fire them if they test positive for it.?..Your company must not have a high turnover rate, being you will not hire anyone who has this mighty popular breakfast beverage....which is a known anti-oxidant.
Quoting 2364. 62901IL:

You don't need to spam the blog with that!!!
6290.I recall your NHC countdown last week for the next advisory.Don't get all in a tizzy.It's ok. We all have our little (sometimes big) faults

Quoting 2358. Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, are the anomalies changing in terms of being less favorable meaning less tripole and more colder? Last night the talk on the chat room was about this.


The anomalies over SA has been unprecedented as the climate is definitely out of whack this year. IMO the cold temps continue in Central SA it will has an effect on the SE Pacific cooling off sea temps in the area. Thus allowing lower pressures over the MDR and Caribbean/Gulf. Thus a cool based ENSO is almost certain for this year.
2368. 62901IL
Quoting 2366. PalmBeachWeather:
6290.I recall your NHC countdown last week for the next advisory.Don't get all in a tizzy.It's ok. We all have our little (sometimes big) faults


OK.
Oh, am I forgetting something??? Lets do a countdown to the next TWO!
4 hours and 2 minutes!!!
great tropical update twc there is hope
2370. zampaz
While there is a bit of a lull in actual tropical weather at the moment, I hope all will pardon me if I post this, as it may be of interest to some:
A link to a video of the
(Senate) COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT & PUBLIC WORKS:
"Climate Change: It's Happening Now."

NOTE: You have to FF through the first 19:54 of the video to get to the start of the meeting...
https://www.senate.gov/isvp/?type=live&comm=epw&f ilename=epw071813

Quoting 2369. islander101010:
great tropical update twc there is hope


I didn't see it. What did they say?
2372. 62901IL
3 hours and 59 minutes to the next TWO!
Quoting 2364. 62901IL:

You don't need to spam the blog with that!!!
Please i'm not spaming... for God sake a lot of unprepared people live there... at least tell me it will not happen.
Quoting 2372. 62901IL:
3 hours and 59 minutes to the next TWO!



and your point is?
2375. 62901IL
Quoting 2373. Luisport:
Please i'm not spaming... for God sake a lot of unprepared people live there... at least tell me it will not happen.

It will not happen.
2376. 62901IL
Quoting 2374. Tazmanian:



and your point is?

My point is that we need a countdown to entertain the bloggers!
2377. 19N81W
what happened to a busy season?
2378. 62901IL
Quoting 2377. 19N81W:
what happened to a busy season?

Oh, nothing did. the tropics are trying to trick us.
2379. Matt74
Quoting 2372. 62901IL:
3 hours and 59 minutes to the next TWO!
I need a 10 minute notice please?????
2380. gator23
Quoting 2256. Luisport:
Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 9 h
Better get ready to pay more for coffee. Another freeze coming for Brazil Link

Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.

I take exception with the idea that coffee is grown in places where they supply the world with cocaine. You can make that argument for Colombia but not Jamaica, Brazil, India or the Dominican Republic. FYI Kona coffee is an american bean grown in the Cocaine producing country of The United States
Quoting 2376. 62901IL:

My point is that we need a countdown to entertain the bloggers!




we don't need a countdown tooo entertain the bloggers
2382. 62901IL
Quoting 2379. Matt74:
I need a 10 minute notice please?????

You may have one.
Quoting 2377. 19N81W:
what happened to a busy season?


July 20th :-)
Quoting 2370. zampaz:
While there is a bit of a lull in actual tropical weather at the moment, I hope all will pardon me if I post this, as it may be of interest to some:
A link to a video of the
(Senate) COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT & PUBLIC WORKS:
"Climate Change: It's Happening Now."

NOTE: You have to FF through the first 19:54 of the video to get to the start of the meeting...
https://www.senate.gov/isvp/?type=live&comm=epw&f ilename=epw071813




Partial Transcrpt of Senator Whitehouse questoning Roy Spencer:

SENATOR WHITEHOUSE: Let me turn to Dr. Spencer, let me first ask a kinda unrelated question Doctor; do you believe that the Theory of Creation actually has a much better scientific basis than the Theory of Evolution?

ROY SPENCER: Ha Ha! And why are we going in this direction?

SENATOR WHITEHOUSE: Because it's something you've said and I just want to see if you still believe it.

ROY SPENCER: Uhh, I believe that Evolutionary Theory is mostly religion, it is naturalistic, but my faith is not strong enough to believe that everything happened by accident. I mean there's a lot of work out there that's shown that you can not statistically combine all of the elements that are contained in the DNA molecule by chance over however many billions of years you want to invoke or how many, how much known universe there is with all of the matter in it. So what I'm saying is some areas of science deal a lot more with faith than with known science and so I'm open to alternative explanations.

SENATOR WHITEHOUSE: And do you still believe that the Theory of Creation actually has a much better scientific basis than the Theory of Evolution, to be specific?

ROY SPENCER: I think, I think I could be put into a debate with someone on the other side and I think I could give more science supporting that life is created than they could support, with evidence, that life evolved through natural random processes, so yes.


Apprently Senator Whitehouse knows both his science and his sceptics.
2385. gator23
Quoting 2376. 62901IL:

My point is that we need a countdown to entertain the bloggers!


I think a crazy person callinng coffee drinkers un american will do
2386. ncstorm
Good morning everyone..beautiful day here in eastern nc





I still say look for development off the east coast first..
2387. 62901IL
Quoting 2386. ncstorm:
Good morning everyone..beautiful day here in eastern nc





I still say look for development off the east coast first..

East coast...i will loook


Australian Weather Fire Road & Police Warnings
Just in: -5.0°C(23°F) and snowing at Falls Creek this evening. Confirmed reports of snowflakes in Mt Beauty tonight too. Goodnight snow lovers...
Source Snow Australia
Quoting 2372. 62901IL:
3 hours and 59 minutes to the next TWO!
There you go counting down again.........Enough already. We know, we know
2390. Grothar
Quoting 2356. Ricki13th:


It seems the wave the GFS is depicting is the 2nd wave in the middle about to hit water in about 36 hours or so.


I've been monitoring it for a couple of days. Which is why I posted it this morning again. Looks interesting.



2391. ackee
here my take on the top model performance for this seasons


GFS is been on of the best performing model so far this year , however is spin up too much storm

CMC develop too much as usual but has actual not been performing too bad this seasons

EURO I think the Euro has been out to lunch so far this seasons but we much give the Euro credit it has not develop much storm this season like the GFS and CMC because condition over all or just not right for development
Quoting 2388. AussieStorm:


Australian Weather Fire Road & Police Warnings
Just in: -5.0°C(23°F) and snowing at Falls Creek this evening. Confirmed reports of snowflakes in Mt Beauty tonight too. Goodnight snow lovers...
Source Snow Australia
I want to see something similar here in D.C this winter..but I know that'll probably never happen.

I see the latest run takes the storm north of the islands so it later down the road becomes a strong hurricane and clips the north east.Sick of this pattern..
Possible product delays


SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP AVIATION WEATHER CENTER KANSAS CITY MO
1411 UTC SAT JUL 20 2013
THE NOAA SCIENCE CENTER IN COLLEGE PARK HAS HAD TO EVACUATE THE
BUILDING. REASON IS UNKNONW AT THIS TIME. THIS EVACUATION
AFFECTS HPC/OPC/SDM. WE WILL ADVISE ON WHEN THEY RETURN. IF YOU
HAVE ANY QUESTION PLEASE CALL THE AWC LEAD FORECASTER AT
816-584-7269.
ROETS/LEAD FORECASTER/AWC/NCEP
Quoting 2390. Grothar:


I've been monitoring it for a couple of days. Which is why I posted it this morning again. Looks interesting.







I saw it 1st
Quoting 2388. AussieStorm:


Australian Weather Fire Road & Police Warnings
Just in: -5.0°C(23°F) and snowing at Falls Creek this evening. Confirmed reports of snowflakes in Mt Beauty tonight too. Goodnight snow lovers...
Source Snow Australia



hey you took my snow give it back

Quoting 2390. Grothar:


I've been monitoring it for a couple of days. Which is why I posted it this morning again. Looks interesting.



The one behind it is not so bad either. Its only a matter of time before these vigorous waves start spinning up.
Quoting 2393. nrtiwlnvragn:
Possible product delays


SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP AVIATION WEATHER CENTER KANSAS CITY MO
1411 UTC SAT JUL 20 2013
THE NOAA SCIENCE CENTER IN COLLEGE PARK HAS HAD TO EVACUATE THE
BUILDING. REASON IS UNKNONW AT THIS TIME. THIS EVACUATION
AFFECTS HPC/OPC/SDM. WE WILL ADVISE ON WHEN THEY RETURN. IF YOU
HAVE ANY QUESTION PLEASE CALL THE AWC LEAD FORECASTER AT
816-584-7269.
ROETS/LEAD FORECASTER/AWC/NCEP


That delay also reflects for the computer models too or is nothing for them?
2398. Matt74
Quoting 2385. gator23:


I think a crazy person callinng coffee drinkers un american will do
This is true. However , with a statement like that, crazy is probably an understatement .
Quoting 2397. Tropicsweatherpr:


That delay also reflects for the computer models too or is nothing for them?


Would not think so, they did not mention NCEP.
2400. hydrus
Quoting 2349. Levi32:
It is true that for the moment the 11-15 day mean on both the GFS and CMC ensembles shows the east coast trough shifting farther east. We'll see how August evolves.



its going to be a fish storm or go out to sea..
2402. 62901IL
Poll time!!!
Q: What does PDS mean?
A: Particularly Dangerous Situation
B: Please don't shout
C: Product Data Sheet
D: None of these
2403. K8eCane
POLL TIME.

We are under a royal baby watch.
Do you think the next invest will form

A. Before the royal baby is born?

B. During the birth of the royal baby?

C. After the royal babys birth?

D. On the royal babys first birthday?
Quoting 2404. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow!




WOW is right that's hurricane Irene and snady part 3
From the weatherdudes.com:

When does the Cape Verde season begin?

The Cape Verde season, which is when tropical cyclones form in the Eastern Atlantic, begins around the 15th of August. At that time, upper-level winds and sea surface temperatures usually are right for storm development. Since these storms move across a large part of the Atlantic, they can become monster storms as they move westward. However, sometimes they turn harmlessly out to sea if there is a weakness in the vast high pressure system that extends to the stormís north. Other times, they move towards the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, or the East Coast of the U.S.

Dave

If we see one before that(GFS hinting, that makes this a more active season than usual)
Quoting 2390. Grothar:


I've been monitoring it for a couple of days. Which is why I posted it this morning again. Looks interesting.





Look like formidable candidates. What we have to see is how they evolve once both hit the water.
2408. Grothar
Quoting 2407. Tropicsweatherpr:


Look like formidable candidates. What we have to see is how thet evolve once they hit the water.


A lot of times they just plop.
Quoting 2377. 19N81W:
what happened to a busy season?
2013
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP AVIATION WEATHER CENTER KANSAS CITY MO
1416 UTC SAT JUL 20 2013
NORMAL OPERATIONS HAVE RESUMED AT NCEP. BACKUP CANCELED.
ROETS/LEAD FORECASTER/AWC/NCEP

Backup referred to is Aviation Weather Center for WPC.
2411. ncstorm
GFS Ensembles spread








Quoting 2405. Tazmanian:



WOW is right that's hurricane Irene and snady part 3


It would be interesting to watch the crazies on the blog if that happens
GTstorm, I'll believe that when I see it!
2414. hydrus
Quoting 2390. Grothar:


I've been monitoring it for a couple of days. Which is why I posted it this morning again. Looks interesting.



Looks threatening if you ask me. Especially since the steering pattern is only showing very subtle changes..Meanwhile, the runway is being paved...
Quoting 2401. hurricanes2018:
its going to be a fish storm or go out to sea..
Quoting 2404. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow!

Well it was nice knowing N.Y.C.lol.It's like TMC's It could happen tomorrow.
Quoting 2405. Tazmanian:



WOW is right that's hurricane Irene and snady part 3
Never knew we had a snady. But that is 300 nothing to get excited about still don't know if it will develop within 72 hours like the 6z said. If anything it will probably recurve before. 
Quoting 2412. Orcasystems:


It would be interesting to watch the crazies on the blog if that happens




it sure will be am not sure if the E can take other hit like that after two years in a row
Quoting Tazmanian:



hey you took my snow give it back


You live in Florida, you don't get snow. LOL
Quoting 2401. hurricanes2018:
its going to be a fish storm or go out to sea..
hurricane2018.......Maybe yes, maybe no.Is that purely a guess or do have have some unknown knowledge that you might share with us?
2421. Patrap
Taz Lives in California.


Quoting 2417. Ricki13th:

Never knew we had a snady. But that is 300+ nothing to get excited about still don't know if it will develop within 72 hours like the 6z said. 




with in 72hr? where is it comeing from ?
Quoting 2419. AussieStorm:


You live in Florida, you don't get snow. LOL




I live in Sonora CA so yes I do get snow LOL
2424. Grothar
For the moment, I can't see the NHC mentioning anything but this little feature off of Florida and a minor mention of a few small waves. Do you think the NHC will ever call anything a blob?

2425. gator23
Quoting 2405. Tazmanian:



WOW is right that's hurricane Irene and snady part 3


Anything beyond 5-7 days is fantasy. Worth watching but not worth worrying about.
2426. Patrap
2427. K8eCane
Quoting 2424. Grothar:
For the moment, I can't see the NHC mentioning anything but this little feature off of Florida and a minor mention of a few small waves. Do you think the NHC will ever call anything a blob?



TWC has a commercial for Metamucil that has a big orange blob. I thought of you! LOL
Quoting 2411. ncstorm:
GFS Ensembles spread








The ensembles have been consistent in keeping this one offshore of the East Coast. Still we have a ways to go and if it was one thing I learned from the previous storm don't put your bets on the East Coast trough because the Bermuda High prevailed in steering Chantal more further west despite it opening up into a wave.

Quoting 2422. Tazmanian:




with in 72hr? where is it comeing from ?
Showing it at an invest with a 1008mb low on it way to developing which is highly uncertain right now.

2430. Patrap
Quoting 2429. Ricki13th:

Showing it at an invest with a 1008mb low on it way to developing which is highly uncertain right now.




ok I guss will see
2432. gator23
Quoting 2416. washingtonian115:
Well it was nice knowing N.Y.C.lol.It's like TMC's It could happen tomorrow.


I think it may be too early to RIP NYC. THis is more than 14 days out.
Quoting Tazmanian:




I live in Sonora CA so yes I do get snow LOL

Geez sorry dude, I thought you were in Florida. My bad :-)
Hi everybody.....things are getting quite interesting
Quoting 2424. Grothar:
For the moment, I can't see the NHC mentioning anything but this little feature off of Florida and a minor mention of a few small waves. Do you think the NHC will ever call anything a blob?




TO FURTHER COMLPLICATE MATTERS...THERE IS A NEW CIRCULAR BLOB OF
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE CENTER. THIS IS RATHER
CONTRADICTORY TO THE OTHER STUFF. BASED ON THE RECON AND NEW
CONVECTIVE BLOB, I AM INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 40 KNOTS AND THE
12 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR 45 KNOTS AND NO CHANGE AFTER THAT.
Quoting 2432. gator23:


I think it may be too early to RIP NYC. THis is more than 14 days out.
If you can't look at the obvious lol at the end to tell this was a joke then I'm not even going to explain..
2437. hydrus
2438. gator23
Quoting 2428. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The ensembles have been consistent in keeping this one offshore of the East Coast. Still we have a ways to go and if it was one thing I learned from the previous storm don't put your bets on the East Coast trough because the Bermuda High prevailed in steering Chantal more further west despite it opening up into a wave.


It can be argues that it was steered more west because it opened up into a wave
Quoting 2433. AussieStorm:

Geez sorry dude, I thought you were in Florida. My bad :-)




that's ok we all make mistake
2440. Grothar
Quoting 2419. AussieStorm:


You live in Florida, you don't get snow. LOL


It has snowed in Florida many times. Not really unusual. Not so much in the south but many times in the Central and Northern part. I always hate it.




Quoting 2402. 62901IL:
Poll time!!!
Q: What does PDS mean?
A: Particularly Dangerous Situation
B: Please don't shout
C: Product Data Sheet
D: None of these


Poll time.

When will bloggers ever learn to ignore trollish behavior?

A) Never
B) Never
C) Never
D) Never
It's rumbling here in west Boynton Beach (again)
2443. 62901IL
Quoting 2441. StAugustineFL:


Poll time.

When will bloggers ever learn to ignore trollish behavior?

A) Never
B) Never
C) Never
D) Never

Never. All options
2444. 62901IL

This is my favorite invest in the WPAC!
Quoting 2390. Grothar:


I've been monitoring it for a couple of days. Which is why I posted it this morning again. Looks interesting.



So in a day or two these waves should be emerging into the Atlantic? How soon do you think we will see development Gro?
Quoting 2440. Grothar:


It has snowed in Florida many times. Not really unusual. Not so much in the south but many times in the Central and Northern part. I always hate it.





Your going to peeve BF if you post stuff like that... she has a very low tolerance for anything that requires socks.
Quoting 2441. StAugustineFL:


Poll time.

When will bloggers ever learn to ignore trollish behavior?

A) Never
B) Never
C) Never
D) Never


I Ignore trolls and report them all the time now days. They however do say things to make us all laugh like thunderstormsmike and Camille 33......Thunderstormsmike may be in for a rude awakening that the season is about to get going and it's going to be a bad season
2449. gator23
Quoting 2436. washingtonian115:
If you can't look at the obvious lol at the end to tell this was a joke then I'm not even going to explain..


I saw the LOL but i also saw you say "it later down the road becomes a strong hurricane and clips the north east.Sick of this pattern". I made statement that was an opinion. Moving on.
2450. ackee
THE Blog really need a storm or invest to track the blog is fire up about a wave that has not even emerge off coast of Africa. The GFS could be up to it usual tricks for spinning up another phantom storm until this wave emerge of shore and we see what it does nothing to get too excited about
There is a very weak surface circulation with the trough in the N. Gulf..Very Lt WNW to NW winds just W of trough axis...Hopefully some cooling showers down here near Grand Isle, LA. later today as system drifts West....
Quoting 2449. gator23:


I saw the LOL but i also saw you say "it later down the road becomes a strong hurricane and clips the north east.Sick of this pattern". I made statement that was an opinion. Moving on.
I was describing what the model was showing.I'm not worried about N.Y.C at this point and I'm sure not looking at anything 300+ hours out with seriousness.
2453. hydrus
Quoting 2440. Grothar:


It has snowed in Florida many times. Not really unusual. Not so much in the south but many times in the Central and Northern part. I always hate it.




Your right, its not that unusual. I lived in north Tampa for a time. It may not snow a lot, but it freezes regularly during the winter.
2454. zampaz
Quoting 2384. JohnLonergan:



Partial Transcrpt of Senator Whitehouse questoning Roy Spencer:{snip}

According to Senator Vitter, the climate is not warming and has not warmed for the last 15 years.

In light of the melting we can see at the North pole and disappearance of glaciers across the world that we can see with our own eyes, consider the statements of Senator Vitter regarding global warming in his opening statement at the meeting:


Senator Vitter's web site: http://www.vitter.senate.gov/
Quoting 2450. ackee:
THE Blog really need a storm or invest to track the blog is fire up about a wave that has not even emerge off coast of Africa. The GFS could be up to it usual tricks for spinning up another phantom storm until this wave emerge of shore and we see what it does nothing to get too excited about
Development in 3 days.

2456. gator23
Quoting 2452. washingtonian115:
I was describing what the model was showing.I'm not worried about N.Y.C at this point and I'm sure not looking at anything 300+ hours out with seriousness.


Cool, im glad we agree.
2457. Grothar
.
2458. Grothar
Quoting 2447. Orcasystems:

Your going to peeve BF if you post stuff like that... she has a very low tolerance for anything that requires socks.


ORCA!!!!

Quoting 2448. weatherlover94:


I Ignore trolls and report them all the time now days. They however do say things to make us all laugh like thunderstormsmike and Camille 33......Thunderstormsmike may be in for a rude awakening that the season is about to get going and it's going to be a bad season

Wow you just putting bloggers out there. At least Camille33 knows about Meteorology.
Until the SAL retreats Northward or dissipates, I don't see how anything can develop as it comes off the African coast...also need a major pattern change to get something more "home grown"...
Quoting 2457. Grothar:






Oh yikes.....
Quoting 2442. PalmBeachWeather:
It's rumbling here in west Boynton Beach (again)


July has been yo-yo like in my backyard. A few consecutive days of rain then a week of pleasant weather. Rinse and repeat.
if this year we get the same steering pattern, then there is something missing we dont know about. this pattern where everything recurves is beyond ridiculous
Quoting 2372. 62901IL:
3 hours and 59 minutes to the next TWO!

Not this again! Are you just naturally annoying or are you trying hard to be? Reason I'm calling you out is because your stupid countdowns annoy me and likely the other bloggers as well. If I get in trouble for speaking the truth, its better if I do than if a veteran long-time member does. So seriously stop with your stupid comments

Quoting 2428. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The ensembles have been consistent in keeping this one offshore of the East Coast. Still we have a ways to go and if it was one thing I learned from the previous storm don't put your bets on the East Coast trough because the Bermuda High prevailed in steering Chantal more further west despite it opening up into a wave.




Good points here, man. I am usually not so bullish on a long range forecast which shows a cyclone heading head-long into a multi-layered ridge...

Moving from outside the 1016mb contour and charging right up past the 1020mb zone seems unlikely to me.
Quoting 2459. Hurricanes305:


Wow you just putting bloggers out there. At least Camille33 knows about Meteorology.



Your right. Sorry about that
Quoting 2457. Grothar:



if the northeast get hit by a hurricane this year its will be very bad..
2468. Grothar
Quoting 2446. GTstormChaserCaleb:
So in a day or two these waves should be emerging into the Atlantic? How soon do you think we will see development Gro?


More than a few days. IMHO(which is rare) I believe it is really too early to these to form quickly. Even though it has been an unusual season with some of these already.
2469. ackee
Quoting 2455. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Development in 3 days.
let see other that the GFS don't see much model support for it the CMC barely develop it THE Euro don't develop it at all lets see what will happen I think this wave wont be more than an Invest just my view
severe weather today!!
Quoting 2438. gator23:


It can be argues that it was steered more west because it opened up into a wave
Not too sure about that the trough wasn't strong enough to pick it up maybe because it wasn't as far south the 1016 mb. line was extending all the way down into the Caribbean, I kept saying for days there was no way a Tropical Storm or even Hurricane would recurve up into the ridge which was centered over Bermuda.
Quoting 2464. PortoJuan:

Not this again! Are you just naturally annoying or are you trying hard to be? Reason I'm calling you out is because your stupid countdowns annoy me and likely the other bloggers as well. If I get in trouble for speaking the truth, its better if I do than if a veteran long-time member does. So seriously stop with your stupid comments



same here he is acting more and more like JFV evere day
Quoting 2458. Grothar:


ORCA!!!!


Good morning youngish older fellow.. good to see your still around :)

If any of those blobs are even close to what you have been posting... we could see the blog like the old days where we saw 100 posts in 10 minute spans again.
quite a few models are hinting there could be a significant impact some where on the US east coast. We don't even have a system yet...we need to get the system first then the models will get a better grip on what might happen. my guess right now is a 50/50 chance of US significant impact or a harmless re-curve out to sea.
2475. ackee
Quoting 2460. canehater1:
Until the SAL retreats Northward or dissipates, I don't see how anything can develop as it comes off the African coast...also need a major pattern change to get something more "home grown"...
agree
Goodnight all.... Stay well. Stay safe.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 2460. canehater1:
Until the SAL retreats Northward or dissipates, I don't see how anything can develop as it comes off the African coast...also need a major pattern change to get something more "home grown"...


The wave is predicted to have a moisture bubble similar to Chantal but more potent if thats the case a little of SAL would impede development but it will slow it down a bit. Development in 3 days is bit too fast though. But the GFS makes up for it by showing it slowing developing until it reaches the Islands.

Quoting 2472. Tazmanian:



same here he is acting more and more like JFV evere day


ROFLMAO... I thought those three letters were put on the auto ban list :)
Quoting 2415. thunderstromsmike:
i dont believe there will be more then 2 or 3 more storms this year due to all the high wind shear and dry air throughout the carib and atlantic and forcasted to stay that way for quite some time
Quoting 2416. washingtonian115:
Well it was nice knowing N.Y.C.lol.It's like TMC's It could happen tomorrow.


When Sandy was bearing down, and they were talking surge and tide, that show's episode on the effects of a hurricane on NYC was the first thing that popped into my mind.
2482. Patrap
Sen Vitter, "R" Louisiana is the Biggest US Sen. Shill for Big Oil, period.

He has not, your National Interest at Heart.
Quoting 2411. ncstorm:
GFS Ensembles spread









Even if is too early, we may have our first CV storm of the season.
Quoting 2478. Hurricanes305:


The wave is predicted to have a moisture bubble similar to Chantal but more potent if thats the case a little of SAL would impede development but it will slow it down a bit. Development in 3 days is bit too fast though. But the GFS makes up for it by showing it slowing developing until it reaches the Islands.

Will it have an anti cyclone over it and if so how do you know that?
2485. risavjl
Quoting bappit:

Can you give an example? Tsunamis, hurricanes, volcanoes, hot weather, cold weather, earthquakes??? Who is saying this?


Mostly young'uns. Just mentioning what I've read over the years in comments sections, not here. Japan earthquake/tsunami "omg this has never happened before!!" (We are doomed) "omg big earthquakes are happening more often!!" (Doomed again) Sandy "omg this is unheard of!! hurricanes are happening more than ever!!" (doom&gloom) They don't recall the past 7 years of 0... Iceland volcano "omg thank goodness that doesn't happen over here!!" (What?) 2011 "omg there are more tornadoes than ever!!" (Doom is upon us) 2012 tornadoes (crickets).

Can't wait until the ISON comments. "oh noes! get in your shelter! we're, like, totally, doomed!!" and on and on and on... Kids....

I'm a novice compared to all of you here. I do a lot of speed reading about earth and space on the internet and in books. I watch Gary England and James Spann et al live and the chasers on the plains. I've been a trained ham radio storm spotter for 17yrs. WI doesn't have much action in that regard but I stay ready for it.
Quoting 2404. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow!


These doomcasts into the northeast aren't so unbelievable anymore, since Sandy.
2487. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks..Blogs Coffee is perked..enjoy....
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Dry air tends to fade mid and late season.. real meet of season Aug 15- Oct 15. New GFS has classic track close to east coast
week of Aug 4

2489. buffed
its only a matter of time before a major hurricane revisits south florida.If Wilma hadnt scrapped Cancun and remained the strongest ever ,like it was,a once in 10,000 year event was in the making as Wilma was being flung like a rubberband by record cold late october front.
2490. buffed
Quoting 2486. winter123:

These doomcasts into the northeast aren't so unbelievable anymore, since Sandy.


Sandy was a rainstorm,i lived in the mid atlantic 40 years but theres just something hopeless when you find yourself in the eye of a cat3 storm you feel as if you are in a fishtank the pressure is so low.