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Earth has its 4th Warmest April and Warmest January - April Period on Record

By: Jeff Masters 3:35 PM GMT on May 19, 2015

April 2015 was Earth's fourth warmest April since global record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday. NASA rated April 2015 as the 3rd warmest April on record. April 2015's warmth makes the year-to-date period (January - April) the warmest such period on record, and the past twelve months the warmest 12-month period in recorded history. Nine of the ten warmest 12-month periods have occurred within the past two years (the exception: September 1997–August 1998 was tied for eighth warmest.) Global ocean temperatures during April 2015 were the warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in April 2015 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 9th or 16th warmest in the 37-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems, respectively.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2015, the 4th warmest April for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. A few areas saw record warmth, including Cuba, part of southern Mexico, small parts of west central South America and southern Brazil, regions of Mauritania, and part of eastern Tanzania. Part of north central Russia had April temperatures more than 5°C (9°F) above average. Cooler-than-average temperatures were notable across large portions of central to western Australia, parts of South Asia, central North Africa, and part of eastern Canada. Record cold was not observed over any land areas. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .


Figure 2. Still frame from a YouTube video by e2theloc of the EF4 tornado that hit Rochelle, Illinois on April 9, 2015. The tornado was part of a four-day severe weather outbreak that killed 3 people and did over $1 billion in damage. This has been the only EF4 tornado in the U.S. thus far in 2015.

One billion-dollar weather disaster in April 2015: Midwest U.S. severe weather April 7 - 10
One billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth last month, according to the April 2015 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield: a severe weather outbreak on April 7 - 10 in the U.S. Plains, Midwest, and Mississippi Valley that caused at least $1 billion in damage. So far in 2015, there have been just three billion-dollar weather disasters. However, a fourth--the intensifying drought in the Western U.S.--is likely to cause $3 billion in agricultural damage in California, and another $1.2 billion in damage in the State of Washington. The deadliest weather-related disaster of April 2015 was a massive landslide that hit Badakshan village in northern Afghanistan on April 27, killing 52 people and destroying almost 100 homes. The slide was triggered by a big snowfall event.



Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest April extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during April 2015 was the 2nd lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). April was marked by surface air temperatures about 1 - 3°C (2 - 5°F) above average throughout the Arctic, except for Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, where temperatures were 1 - 3°C (2 - 5°F) below average.

Notable global heat and cold marks set for April 2015
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 48.0°C (118.4°F) at Larkana, Pakistan, April 20
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -55.4°C (-67.7°F) at Summit GEO, Greenland, April 11
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 41.5°C (106.7°F) at Borroloola, Australia, April 6
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -76.6°C (-105.9°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, April 22

Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in April 2015
Cocos Islands (Australia), max. 32.8°C, April 8 (Tied all-time territorial record high)
Navrongo (Ghana), max. 43.3°C, April 10 (New all-time national record high for Ghana)
Ba Don (Vietnam), max. 40.5°C, April 19
Thakhek (Laos), max. 42.0°C, April 20 (Tied all-time national record high for Laos)
Nakhon Phanom (Thailand), max. 42.1°C,  April 20
Roi Et (Thailand), max. 42.2°C, April 21
Nong Phlub (Thailand), max. 41.8°C, April 21
Havana (Cuba), max. 37.0°C, April 26
Holguin (Cuba), max. 38.7°C, April 26
Guaro (Cuba), max. 38.0°C, April 26
Merida (Mexico), max. 43.6°C, April 26
Contramaestre (Cuba), max. 37.7°C, April 27
Velasco (Cuba), max. 38.6°C, April 28
Ciego de Avila (Cuba), max. 38.0°C, April 28
Tela (Honduras), max. 40.6°C, April 28
Coro (Venezuela), max. 43.6°C, 29 April 29 (New all-time national record high for Venezuela)
Puerto Padre (Cuba), max. 38.4°C, April 29
Punta Lucrecia (Cuba), max. 37.3°C, April 29
Nuevitas (Cuba), max. 38.5°C, April 30



New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
As of May 18, 2015, eight nations or territories have tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history thus far in 2015, and one (Israel) has set an all-time cold temperature record. For comparison, only two nations or territories set all-time heat records in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records in a year was nineteen in 2010 (21 records at the time, but two have been broken since.) Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page. Here are the all-time national heat and cold records set so far in 2015:

Palau tied its national heat record of 34.4°C (94.0°F) at Koror Airport on May 14.
Venezuela set a new national heat record of 43.6°C (109.9°F) at Coro on April 29. Previous record: 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Machiques, Zulia State in February 1983.
Laos tied its national heat record of 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Thakhek on April 20.
Ghana set a new national heat record of 43.3°C (109.9°F) at Navrongo on April 10. This is the third time this year Ghana has tied or set a new all-time heat record. Previous records: 43.1°C (109.6°F), set the previous day, on April 9, and 43.0°C (109.4°F) on February 12.
Cocos Islands (Australian territory) tied their all-time heat record with 32.8°C (91.0°F) on April 8.
Antarctica set a new territorial heat record of 17.5°C (63.5°F) at Esperanza Base on March 24. Previous record: 17.4°C (63.3°F) at Marambio Base, set the previous day. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has appointed a committee to study this event and determine if this represents an official record for the continent.
Equatorial Guinea set a new national heat record of 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Bata on March 17. Previous record: 35.3°C (95.5°F) at Malabo in February 1957.
Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.5°C (95.9°F) on January 19 at Futuna Airport.

Israel set a new national cold record of -14.2°C (6.4°F) at Merom Golan on January 10.

Mr. Herrera originally listed Samoa as tying its national heat record with 36.5°C (97.7°F) on January 20 at Asau, but a subsequent review of the record revealed possible issues with the measurement equipment, so this record is dubious.


Figure 3. This image of the extent of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) created at 2 pm EDT Wednesday, April 29, 2015, shows that dry, dusty air flowing eastwards from the Sahara Desert was over the Caribbean and northern South America. The associated dry conditions over Venezuela helped bring the hottest temperature ever recorded in that country, 43.6°C (109.9°F) at Coro. Image credit: University of Wisconsin/CIMSS.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 492. win1gamegiantsplease:


Alternative energy is the best bet. And several oil companies are looking deeply into this. I will say that our infrastructure, or mentality for lack of better words, isn't centered around mass transit or bicycles like some major metro areas or most notably western Europe. I think this image can be altered more effectively through adverts and the like. And the US isn't the only nation that should put a dent into gg emissions, but aside from China we're capable.

And out of curiosity, does anyone here have data on how much the US and the world's electricity comes from burning fossil fuels versus alternative energy? That's what I've never really understood about some of the automotive industry focus on hybrids if most of the country/world's electricity comes from burning coal or gas.
It's about 13% from renewable energy. That's a little misleading however, since over half of that comes from hydro and geothermal, which have their own environmental issues. Eliminating those, it's somewhere between 6% and 7%.
Quoting 499. indianrivguy:



That's pretty darned funny there...



U betcha'

OK here we go. Tropical Cyclone just off the coast of Miami. Everybody get to the store's and gas up the car.
Quoting 494. BaltimoreBrian:

I don't know if Nils-Axel Werner, whoops, Morner, is a fossil fuel industry shill.

Among other activities, Morner has spoken multiple times at the fossil fuel-funded Heartland Institute's conferences. That along earns him the title.
pssssssst'





Quoting 490. yoboi:



Here is some of his peer reviewed work....

Link

Already debunked above. It's a garbage paper.
From Dr Masters' blog entry

"Nine of the ten warmest 12-month periods have occurred within the past two years"


Yes this is true but also misleading. The temperature anomaly is autocorrelated and if it's extremely warm now, it's likely to remain extremely warm for the next few months. It is even more autocorrelated because this is a running average of 12 month periods.

The atmosphere is warming. We're the reason why. But why overplay an extremely strong hand with misleading statistics?



Bam! Direct hit just North of Palm Beach.
Quoting 509. HurriHistory:


Bam! Direct hit just North of Palm Beach.
Better get ready.
Quoting 509. HurriHistory:


Bam! Direct hit just North of Palm Beach.
far out in time but we need to stay alert
Quoting 509. HurriHistory:


Bam! Direct hit just North of Palm Beach.
well they sure can use the rains down there.
Alternative energy is the best bet. And several oil companies are looking deeply into this. I will say that our infrastructure, or mentality for lack of better words, isn't centered around mass transit or bicycles like some major metro areas or most notably western Europe. I think this image can be altered more effectively through adverts and the like.

Who's paying for these adverts? Surely you're not talking about changing fuel consumption mentality with the PSA equivalent of "This is your brain on drugs"? Very effective, I'm sure. No, really. Still, the timeline for the necessary change of attitude seems a littttttle long, and wow, how much money are we talking about the gov't spending on that kind of massive "intervention"?

Oh, wait, I suppose we could always rely on private companies piggybacking on government research and taking advantage of subsidies and low cost government loans and generous tax breaks, etc. to develop alternative technologies, but is THAT really avoiding "massive government intervention"?
Sorry i haven't been on here in the last few days. My phone kept freezing whenever i'd try to get on here but it stopped doing that now.
Quoting 493. GreyJewel:
Can you give us an example of these smarter and better ways?

[Patrap:] De-regulation and Fracking?

Ah. No doubt.

Unlikely to have the desired effect, however.
Interesting from the Miami NWS Disco for Thursday...

FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW H5 TEMPS BELOW THE
MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AROUND -10C. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK RATHER STEEP AS WELL...AND WITH STRONG MORNING HEATING
RESULTING, CAPE WILL BE QUITE HIGH. GOOD CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS IT BUMPS UP AGAINST THE WESTERLY
SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW. ALSO, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS THU AFTERNOON INTERIOR-EAST
COAST METRO. HAVE PLACED THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND WILL BE PLACING ON SOCIAL MEDIA. THIS LOOKS LIKE
TYPICAL BEGINNING OF RAINY SEASON ISOLATED VIGOROUS PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS. CERTAINLY...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS WIND SHEAR WILL BE LOW. THE THREATS FROM THE TSTORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL. /GREGORIA

Link
519. beell
Quoting 414. StAugustineFL:

Geeze louise.

Here, maybe this pic of my first good cumulonimbus cloud of the year I captured yesterday will brighten some spirits but people will probably argue it's not one. ;)




No...that's not one Aug. Careful analysis will reveal it is actually two Cb's.
Quoting 484. Jedkins01:



Considering a lot of methods that lead to excess CO2 are also harmful to the environment in other ways, there remains other good reasons for someone of your perspective to support going green.

We can't keep up the ways of inefficiency and expect the Earth to endlessly take its abuse. That way of thinking is similar to people who struggle with drug addictions or over eating.

However, I highly disagree that massive government intervention is a solution as Obama advocates. There are smarter, better ways.

Yes, I'm all for much conservation/protection even to give some benefit of the doubt. But in light of that, I think there is a balance: your last point I agree with.
Quoting 516. TimTheWxMan:

Sorry i haven't been on here in the last few days. My phone kept freezing whenever i'd try to get on here but it stopped doing that now.


Should be less of a problem going forward, with global warming and all. :)
Damn we got some good hail out of that storm in E. Orlando. At least a 1/4 in. in size coming down in buckets.
Winter Park here. Not a drop of rain from all that heavy thunderstorm activity! Haven't had a good soaking rain in a month now.
Quoting 516. TimTheWxMan:

Sorry i haven't been on here in the last few days. My phone kept freezing whenever i'd try to get on here but it stopped doing that now.


No need to apologize, it's a swinging door...I think.
Quoting 506. Patrap:

pssssssst'




Odd that he's the owner of a nuclear power plant, among other things. Wonder if he's coming close to efficient fusion technology, since at the bright young age of 104 he can afford to horse around.

Quoting 492. win1gamegiantsplease:



(snip) And out of curiosity, does anyone here have data on how much the US and the world's electricity comes from burning fossil fuels versus alternative energy? That's what I've never really understood about some of the automotive industry focus on hybrids if most of the country/world's electricity comes from burning coal or gas.
A very large percentage of electricity comes from burning fossil fuels. However, alternatives like wind and hydro and solar are available and being utilized more and more. But the myth about electric and hybrid vehicles being as polluting as gas-powered ones because they use fossil-generated electricity is false -- hybrids generally recharge their batteries internally, though some newer one with larger batteries can be charged from the grid; and electric cars are normally charged from the grid. But the electricity to charge and operate them produces about half the air pollution, even produced by coal, as the burning of the gasoline for the same travel. And if the electricity comes from solar or other alternative technologies the electric cars charged with it are very clean, essentially zero emissions.
Quoting 465. sanflee76:



Just read where norfolk is sinking and on the edge of a crater created from a meteor millions of years ago. Wow. Also, i've learned of Dr. Morner who studies sea level rise and he stated that the IPCC report on the seas rising is false. Anybody ever heard of Morner?


Actually, I've worked with the data from that project and with some of the scientists who did the modelling for the Norfolk region sea level rise projections. The combination of sea level rise with subsidence is projected to significantly change the inundation recurrence rates in the area. There were a number of people who were interested in getting that data to help plan future infrastructure, identify danger zones, etc.

Morner isn't credible. His claims have been repeatedly debunked, but really all one needs to do is look at global tidal gauge data to see that sea level is rising. Part of that is from increased melting of land locked ice sources, but the rest comes from thermal expansion. The oceans cover most of the globe, and salt water is an excellent heat sink (which is where most of the excess heat is going).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
717 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

FLZ047-053-210015-
OSCEOLA FL-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-
717 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 715 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO FORM OVER CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY
THROUGH SUNSET AND PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKLEDGE AND HOLOPAW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2835 8113 2834 8072 2833 8071 2834 8069
2833 8070 2831 8070 2782 8084 2782 8088
2771 8087 2765 8089 2765 8113 2771 8115
2782 8121 2785 8124 2786 8130 2792 8131
2794 8135 2798 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 280DEG 20KT 2827 8097
Quoting 526. CaneFreeCR:

A very large percentage of electricity comes from burning fossil fuels. However, alternatives like wind and hydro and solar are available and being utilized more and more. But the myth about electric and hybrid vehicles being as polluting as gas-powered ones because they use fossil-generated electricity is false -- hybrids generally recharge their batteries internally, though some newer one with larger batteries can be charged from the grid; and electric cars are normally charged from the grid. But the electricity to charge and operate them produces about half the air pollution, even produced by coal, as the burning of the gasoline for the same travel. And if the electricity comes from solar or other alternative technologies the electric cars charged with it are very clean, essentially zero emissions.


OK so it's similar to a 'normal' car battery which might need a jump if it's been run low but as long as the engine is running the battery charges. So hybrids are in general more helpful for the environment, but purely electric cars are a little ahead of their time.
Long day at work..come in the blog..Read back..I see "the majority" have been quite busy today..how funny..



I'll think I'll pass though and instead watch the Cavs vs Hawks..

You all have a good evening..




533. yoboi
But but but the science is settled.....

A new report published Tuesday in the The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that the microbes that feed on decaying organic matter release roughly 7.5-9 times more carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere than man-made emissions worldwide. By a lot. The study, led by Thomas W. Crowther, also showed that soil-dwelling animals such as worms turn around and eat these microbes, which act as a safeguard against the enormous emissions these microbes belch out yearly.

The study's researchers detail how dirt-loving insects and worms graze on these CO2-emitting microbes, which means less CO2 being emitted into the atmosphere. All told, the microbes behind this natural decomposition process release 50–75 Pg (petagram or billion tonnes) carbon annually into the atmosphere, nearly 10 times what humans emit from the burning of fossil fuels. One petagram is equivalent to 1 billion tonnes.

Crowther says that as more carbon dioxide is released by these microbes, the warmer the atmosphere becomes, which "stimulate growth and enzyme production, which aids in the decomposition process." Add to that the carbon dioxide that comes from man-made emissions, and you have a self-perpetuating feedback loop. He notes that the microbes produce the biggest flow of "carbon into the atmosphere that there is on Earth."

Link
Quoting 514. LargoFl:


DOOM!!!
TROPICAL STORM ON JUNE 3 2015 NO WAY!!
Dolphin now extra-tropical and is a low. Dolphin had a strong run.

Read more here.
Quoting 534. hurricanes2018:

DOOM!!!


Too far out to know for sure. But, I'll keep an eye out. ;)
That Oil spill over by Goleta is up from 21,000 to 105,000 gallons of Oil. This is the same company that had the spill in Atwater Village last year.
Quoting 533. yoboi:

But but but the science is settled.....

(snip)
Set up a very large two-pan beam balance with a ton of something on each pan, so it's balanced. That's the model for the natural and microbe co2 generating and removal system. Now add a 100 lbs of iron to one pan. Suddenly the balance isn't any more, and it's not the fault of the microbes, but they can't get it back into balance. That's the balanced environment with the addition of human-generated co2. Somehow we have to get that extra weight off the balance.
Quoting 532. ncstorm:

Long day at work..come in the blog..Read back..I see "the majority" have been quite busy today..how funny..



I'll think I'll pass though and instead watch the Cavs vs Hawks..

You all have a good evening..







We all appreciate the hard work you put in to ensure the continued overall quality of your posts as they add invaluable insight to the coversation.
Quoting 523. HurrMichaelOrl:

Winter Park here. Not a drop of rain from all that heavy thunderstorm activity! Haven't had a good soaking rain in a month now.


Same here michael, here in Sanford. Storms to the west, storms to the east today, just repeating the theme for the past couple weeks or so....very very dry here
Please give us some tropical weather so we can get off the G/W train!!!
Quoting 546. gulfbreeze:

Please give us some tropical weather so we can get off the G/W train!!!


I unbound thee the four winds of the four corners of the earth come forth
Quoting 546. gulfbreeze:

Please give us some tropical weather so we can get off the G/W train!!!

At 6:18 this morning, I wrote "...I hope this is a nice day on the blog, and the arguments of yesterday are kept at bay."

I think I jinxed it.
A few pics from earlier storms across E C FL.



Quoting 545. sanflee76:



Same here michael, here in Sanford. Storms to the west, storms to the east today, just repeating the theme for the past couple weeks or so....very very dry here

Up the road from you, in Deltona, we got hammered pretty good (or bad, depending on POV].
Quoting 550. StormTrackerScott:

A few pics from earlier storms across E C FL.


Lightning capital of the world indeed. Speaking of which, what a first period of hockey.

38% chance of Rain late Thursday, Early Friday...
Quoting 462. opal92nwf:


I think one of those just happened in Niceville also. Although I didn't see the bolt, the storm had well passed through here, then heard what sounded like guns being fired or fireworks for a couple seconds followed by a clap of thunder.
It was in your direction I going west on the 98 toward Destin...
Quoting 550. StormTrackerScott:

A few pics from earlier storms across E C FL.






WOW. STS...

There is hope on the horizon Ped...

So I escape south florida heat and come back to Alaska. Now we are going to Fairbanks where it is hot (records could be broken) and AC is not prevalent.

And there is 23 hours of daylight.
Quoting 551. Misanthroptimist:


Up the road from you, in Deltona, we got hammered pretty good (or bad, depending on POV].


And here in downtown Orlando only .02, lots of scary looking clouds and thunder, but the heavy stuff missed us.
Quoting 514. LargoFl:



Probably not something to worry about unless it is still there at 240 hrs or less.
Quoting 557. Huracan94:


Probably not something to worry about unless it is still there at 240 hrs or less.
on the 18z run it goes poof...gone
Quoting 546. gulfbreeze:

Please give us some tropical weather so we can get off the G/W train!!!

You should tell Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson to refrain from making any more AGW related posts on this blog. I am sure they will be only too happy to oblige.
Quoting 557. Huracan94:


Probably not something to worry about unless it is still there at 240 hrs or less.


Hmmm... I hope THAT doesn't pan out.
Quoting 546. gulfbreeze:

Please give us some tropical weather so we can get off the G/W train!!!


OK, here is a recently published FSU study about the possibility that climate change and rising ocean temperatures are the potential cause of fewer but more powerful hurricanes: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-05/fsu -cca051815.php

Seems there is some direct relationship between changing climate, G/W and tropical weather. Who knew?
Quoting 559. LargoFl:

on the 18z run it goes poof...gone
its the magic show next run it will be back

maybe
Quoting 562. SLINKY:



OK, here is a recently published FSU study about the possibility that climate change and rising ocean temperatures are the potential cause of fewer but more powerful hurricanes: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-05/fsu -cca051815.php

Seems there is some direct relationship between changing climate, G/W and tropical weather. Who knew?



Yo, Science'


Jesse Pinkman
565. MahFL
Quoting 526. CaneFreeCR:

And if the electricity comes from solar or other alternative technologies the electric cars charged with it are very clean, essentially zero emissions.


Except of course for the emissions produced making the solar panels and installing them, and disposing of them when their useful life is over.
Quoting 558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





I see a Camel in that big un.

Wadda you see Bob?



Quoting 555. Dakster:



WOW. STS...

There is hope on the horizon Ped...

So I escape south florida heat and come back to Alaska. Now we are going to Fairbanks where it is hot (records could be broken) and AC is not prevalent.

And there is 23 hours of daylight.

Did you happen to see Steve Gregory's latest blog? The headline made me think of you:

Near Seasonable Temps Rest of May – Except in Alaska!
568. MahFL
Quoting 565. MahFL:



Except of course for the emissions produced making the solar panels and installing them, and disposing of them when their useful life is over.


And transporting them to the showroom on diesel powered car carriers...
Quoting 496. sar2401:


More denialist bunk. This is what Wiki has to say about Energy & Environment -

According to a 2011 article in The Guardian, Gavin Schmidt and Roger A. Pielke, Jr. said that E&E has had low standards of peer review and little impact.[10] In addition, Ralph Keeling criticized a paper in the journal which claimed that CO2 levels were above 400 ppm in 1825, 1857 and 1942, writing in a letter to the editor, "Is it really the intent of E&E to provide a forum for laundering pseudo-science?"[10][11] A 2005 article in Environmental Science & Technology stated that "scientific claims made in Energy & Environment have little credibility among scientists."[12] Boehmer-Christiansen acknowledged that the journal's "impact rating has remained too low for many ambitious young researchers to use it", but blamed this on "the negative attitudes of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)/Climatic Research Unit people."[13]

Link


There's actually quite a bit of Morners peer reviewed articles. And they appear to be reputable internationally published journals including GeoJournal and Geomorphology just to name a couple. There is so much info out there it is all a blur but this guy is published in many many internationally peer reviewed journals ( and not just some denialists who got together as was said in post 498) That has to say something. So maybe its not all bunk. There is peer reviewed research out there that is not funded by fossil fuel blokes so the assertation by a lot on here that this is not the case may be wrong. If you don't agree please don't take it personally and go on the attack.
Quoting 326. schistkicker:



...Highlighting this one out of the Gish gallop-- you do realize that after decades of dithering and free-market resistance, CFC manufacturing (as aerosols, propellants, etc) was discontinued, which caused the problem to stop getting worse? The ozone hole is there, we've just stopped emitting halogen compounds that destroy it into the atmosphere at nearly the rate we were.

Score one for government regulation!


I plussed your comment, but I want to add something about unintended consequences hitting asthmatics, especially those who are lower income.

Albuterol rescue inhalers used to be the cheapest, most effective way to keep functioning for asthmatics. Before CFC ban hit the inhalers, I was able to get them for roughly $8 - that for me was about a 1 month supply (mine is mild to moderate unless I'm in SoCal.)

Then the ban hit, and the pharm companies were "forced" (heh heh) to reformulate with the new propellant, which doesn't work as well - and now that it's back on patent, costs about $40. Another unintended consequence is those who couldn't afford regular doctor visits and were able to control their condition with the OTC product Primatene Mist are SOL - it's been discontinued.

The new propellant (HFC) isn't as powerful, the dispenser tends to clog, which means you have to waste product clearing the hole, and the pharmacist who explained it said "Oh, you just have to breathe in slowly, for about 10 seconds, so you can get the medicine into your lungs!" Riiiiiight. Doofus obviously has never actually had an asthma attack.

This *is* a real rant of mine, by the way. I'm still genuinely angry about it.
Quoting 555. Dakster:



WOW. STS...

There is hope on the horizon Ped...

So I escape south florida heat and come back to Alaska. Now we are going to Fairbanks where it is hot (records could be broken) and AC is not prevalent.

And there is 23 hours of daylight.

Lucky YOU....
Quoting 559. LargoFl:

on the 18z run it goes poof...gone


I already cancelled my plans for June 5. Now you are posting nothing is going to happen?
Quoting 568. MahFL:



And transporting them to the showroom on diesel powered car carriers...
civilization will advance some anyway those that do not well they get left behind
Quoting 551. Misanthroptimist:


Up the road from you, in Deltona, we got hammered pretty good (or bad, depending on POV].

Deltona seems to get blasted all the time. Its in the perfect spot where the sea breezes seem to collide
Quoting 573. Patrap:

79F in Fairbanks currently

"Gee"

great day for peat bogs there just a bubbling
Quoting 570. sanflee76:



There's actually quite a bit of Morners peer reviewed articles. And they appear to be reputable internationally published journals including GeoJournal and Geomorphology just to name a couple. There is so much info out there it is all a blur but this guy is published in many many internationally peer reviewed journals ( and not just some denialists who got together as was said in post 498) That has to say something. So maybe its not all bunk. There is peer reviewed research out there that is not funded by fossil fuel blokes so the assertation by a lot on here that this is not the case may be wrong. If you don't agree please don't take it personally and go on the attack.


He has not published anything in regards to climate science or sea level rise in reputable journals, his publications are in his field of paleoseismicity before he retired. You have been provided valid information from multiple people about his incorrect claims, but instead, you seem to latch on to the nonsensical ramblings of a man who isn't an expert in sea level rise to tell you about sea level rise. Your intentions are really beginning to seem dishonest at best.
Quoting 578. Naga5000:



He has not published anything in regards to climate science or sea level rise in reputable journals, his publications are in his field of paleoseismicity before he retired. You have been provided valid information from multiple people about his incorrect claims, but instead, you seem to latch on to the nonsensical ramblings of a man who isn't an expert in sea level rise to tell you about sea level rise. Your intentions are really beginning to seem dishonest at best.

No, my intentions are not dishonest, You say "he has not published anything in regards to climate science or seal level rise in reputable journals" but i beg to differ:

I first met Professor Mrner at a debate on the climate at the St. Andrews University Union %u2013 the oldest undergraduate debating union in Britain %u2013 in the spring of 2009. The Professor%u2019s witty, eclectic and relentlessly charming speech captivated the House. It was not difficult to see why the citation for the award to him of the Gold Chondrite of Merit the previous year at an international sea-level conference at the University of the Algarve had spoken not only of his %u201Ccontribution to understanding of sea level%u201D but also of his %u201Cirreverence%u201D. The undergraduates loved it.

When a true-believer in the New Religion of %u201Cglobal warming%u201D got up and sneeringly advised the
Professor to see if he could get his ideas about sea level published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, his answer won us the debate: %u201CMadame President, I do apologize that in a 40-year career I have only published 530 papers [now 547] in the peer-reviewed literature, most of them about sea level, but in the light of the Hon. Gentleman%u2019s strictures I will undertake to try harder in future.%u201D The House collapsed in helpless laughter

Well, i have to go put the kids to bed so good night all
Quoting 570. sanflee76:



There's actually quite a bit of Morners peer reviewed articles. And they appear to be reputable internationally published journals including GeoJournal and Geomorphology just to name a couple. There is so much info out there it is all a blur but this guy is published in many many internationally peer reviewed journals ( and not just some denialists who got together as was said in post 498) That has to say something. So maybe its not all bunk. There is peer reviewed research out there that is not funded by fossil fuel blokes so the assertation by a lot on here that this is not the case may be wrong. If you don't agree please don't take it personally and go on the attack.


"For shorter time-periods, estimates of sea level change depend on satellite data. Mörner however chooses not to believe the published satellite record, probably because it shows a clear upward trend across the global oceans of 3.3mm a year. This conscious rejection of the established satellite data comes about, the Spectator reveals, because of something Mörner claims to have overheard several years ago at a scientific conference in Moscow which he interprets as evidence of a conspiracy.

Mörner also claims in the Spectator article to speak on behalf of the INQUA (the International Union for Quaternary Research) commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, whose members he says are "the world's true experts on sea level" – as opposed to the IPCC, which he asserts has "hijacked and distorted" the data. Mörner was indeed president of this commission until 2003. However, as documented by the Carbon Brief, INQUA now clearly dissociates itself from Mörner's views. Current president of the INQUA commission on Coastal and Marine Processes, Professor Roland Gehrels of the University of Plymouth, says his view do not represent 99% of its members, and the organisation has previously stated that it is "distressed" that Mörner continues to falsely "represent himself in his former capacity."

In recent years, before being discovered by Mr Nelson, Mörner had largely been reduced to self-publishing pamphlets on the web and penning overblown diatribes in loony-tunes publications which bear as much relationship to scientific literature as the Spectator does. One of these – titled There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise! – was published in an online publication called 21st Century Science and Technology. It might sound impressive, but this magazine is in fact a vehicle for the views of Lyndon Larouche. Larouche is the US demagogue who in 1989 received a 15-year sentence for conspiracy, mail fraud and tax code violations. He has claimed that the British royal family is running an international drugs syndicate, that Henry Kissinger is a communist agent, that the British government is controlled by Jewish bankers and that Barack Obama is a puppet of the renewed British Empire, which is supposedly trying to start a third world war over Syria (see end for references). He sees science and empiricism as yet another conspiracy, and uses 21st Century Science and Technology to wage war against them." Link

You are picking really bad role models to "learn" from.
Quoting 570. sanflee76:



There's actually quite a bit of Morners peer reviewed articles. And they appear to be reputable internationally published journals including GeoJournal and Geomorphology just to name a couple. There is so much info out there it is all a blur but this guy is published in many many internationally peer reviewed journals ( and not just some denialists who got together as was said in post 498) That has to say something. So maybe its not all bunk. There is peer reviewed research out there that is not funded by fossil fuel blokes so the assertation by a lot on here that this is not the case may be wrong. If you don't agree please don't take it personally and go on the attack.


Morner was a scientist. But not a climate scientist. He published in scientific journals, but not in anything related to climate science (nearly all of his peer-reviewed papers are on paleoseismicity). Unless you are perfectly willing to see a podiatrist to perform your heart surgery, it should be plainly obvious that appropriate expertise does matter, just being a doctor isn't sufficient.

(And please don't conflate my earlier comment regarding the EIKE with your comment on Morner-- I made that comment, I know what I was referring to. That's extremely poor argumentation, bordering heavily on dishonesty.)

Frankly, if you really are on the fence (I'm growing more skeptical by the post), why would you pick someone like Morner as your go-to expert instead of one of the hundreds (thousands) of active climate researchers?
582. bwi
Quoting 542. CaneFreeCR:

Set up a very large two-pan beam balance with a ton of something on each pan, so it's balanced. That's the model for the natural and microbe co2 generating and removal system. Now add a 100 lbs of iron to one pan. Suddenly the balance isn't any more, and it's not the fault of the microbes, but they can't get it back into balance. That's the balanced environment with the addition of human-generated co2. Somehow we have to get that extra weight off the balance.


I just sent an email to Dr. Crowther at Yale to ask his opinions of the deniers using his new study to somehow claim that the science of global warming isn't settled. Here was my question and his response:

Noting that these links are lighting up global warming denier blogs to "prove" that the science isn't settled on climate change! Have you issued a statement?

For example:

http://www.examiner.com/article/how-worms-may-sta ve-off-global-warming

Sincerely,

Jeff in Maryland



Crowther, Thomas
9:56 PM (7 minutes ago)

to me
Wow. Thanks for the heads up.

I would like to issue a statement as soon as possible. I need to address this nonsense.

Tom
Quoting 581. schistkicker:



Morner was a scientist. But not a climate scientist. He published in scientific journals, but not in anything related to climate science (nearly all of his peer-reviewed papers are on paleoseismicity). Unless you are perfectly willing to see a podiatrist to perform your heart surgery, it should be plainly obvious that appropriate expertise does matter, just being a doctor isn't sufficient.

(And please don't conflate my earlier comment regarding the EIKE with your comment on Morner-- I made that comment, I know what I was referring to. That's extremely poor argumentation, bordering heavily on dishonesty.)

Frankly, if you really are on the fence (I'm growing more skeptical by the post), why would you pick someone like Morner as your go-to expert instead of one of the hundreds (thousands) of active climate researchers?

He's just one of the first few scientists i found when starting research. Again im new at this so im sure there are many many scientists out there to be read upon. I just want to be part of the discussion and learn but don't worry i won't be on here much, today just happened to be a day where i didn't have much to do. Im actually recovering from an illness that went through the entire family so i have been able to spend some time on the computer to whilst time away. Good night
Quoting 583. sanflee76:


He's just one of the first few scientists i found when starting research. And sea level rise is definitely a part of climate change so i feel its pertinent. Again im new at this so im sure there are many many scientists out there to be read upon. I just want to be part of the discussion and learn but don't worry i won't be on here much, today just happened to be a day where i didn't have much to do. Im actually recovering from an illness that went through the entire family so i have been able to spend some time on the computer to whilst time away. Good night


Whoops, that was supposed to be in response to schistkicker's reply, sorry about that
Quoting 533. yoboi:

But but but the science is settled.....

A new report published Tuesday in the The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that the microbes that feed on decaying organic matter release roughly 7.5-9 times more carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere than man-made emissions worldwide. By a lot. The study, led by Thomas W. Crowther, also showed that soil-dwelling animals such as worms turn around and eat these microbes, which act as a safeguard against the enormous emissions these microbes belch out yearly.

The study's researchers detail how dirt-loving insects and worms graze on these CO2-emitting microbes, which means less CO2 being emitted into the atmosphere. All told, the microbes behind this natural decomposition process release 50%u201375 Pg (petagram or billion tonnes) carbon annually into the atmosphere, nearly 10 times what humans emit from the burning of fossil fuels. One petagram is equivalent to 1 billion tonnes.

Crowther says that as more carbon dioxide is released by these microbes, the warmer the atmosphere becomes, which "stimulate growth and enzyme production, which aids in the decomposition process." Add to that the carbon dioxide that comes from man-made emissions, and you have a self-perpetuating feedback loop. He notes that the microbes produce the biggest flow of "carbon into the atmosphere that there is on Earth."

Link



That's just the decay of organic matter that contains carbon that came from the atmosphere relatively recently. For example, trees draw CO2 from the atmosphere for carbon that is used in its leaves, and then when those leaves decay, CO2 gets returned to the atmosphere.

The carbon from fossil fuels has been out of this cycle of absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere and release of CO2 into the atmosphere for million of years. Burning of those fossil fuels adds more CO2 into this system, and a lot of this added CO2 is staying in the atmosphere. That's why the atmospheric CO2 level had been relatively stable for millennia, but then rapidly increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

Isotope ratios of the carbon in atmospheric CO2, along with other means, show that the recent rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration has been due to the burning of fossil fuels.
Quoting 582. bwi:



I just sent an email to Dr. Crowther at Yale to ask his opinions of the deniers using his new study to somehow claim that the science of global warming isn't settled. Here was my question and his response:

Noting that these links are lighting up global warming denier blogs to "prove" that the science isn't settled on climate change! Have you issued a statement?

For example:

http://www.examiner.com/article/how-worms-may-sta ve-off-global-warming

Sincerely,

Jeff in Maryland



Crowther, Thomas
9:56 PM (7 minutes ago)

to me
Wow. Thanks for the heads up.

I would like to issue a statement as soon as possible. I need to address this nonsense.

Tom


Kudos to you for taking the initiative! That goes well beyond a gold star, and deserves a blue ribbon for initiative. My favorite post of the day (vis0 playing cards with himself was a close second, though).

Quoting 560. ACSeattle:


You should tell Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson to refrain from making any more AGW related posts on this blog. I am sure they will be only too happy to oblige.
It's their blog they can talk about what they want! I am just not sure about G/W but I love tropical weather & have learned a lot from people on this blog.
Quoting 583. sanflee76:


He's just one of the first few scientists i found when starting research. Again im new at this so im sure there are many many scientists out there to be read upon. I just want to be part of the discussion and learn but don't worry i won't be on here much, today just happened to be a day where i didn't have much to do. Im actually recovering from an illness that went through the entire family so i have been able to spend some time on the computer to whilst time away. Good night

Hope you and your family are on the mend.
Quoting 583. sanflee76:


He's just one of the first few scientists i found when starting research. Again im new at this so im sure there are many many scientists out there to be read upon. I just want to be part of the discussion and learn but don't worry i won't be on here much, today just happened to be a day where i didn't have much to do. Im actually recovering from an illness that went through the entire family so i have been able to spend some time on the computer to whilst time away. Good night


I hope you feel better. Like mentioned previously, Skeptical Science really is the best place to start. The articles are cited and sourced and are often written at different levels of scientific literacy, you won't run into fringe work there. Good luck.
590. bwi
Quoting 585. DCSwithunderscores:




That's just the decay of organic matter that contains carbon that came from the atmosphere relatively recently. For example, trees draw CO2 from the atmosphere for carbon that is used in its leaves, and then when those leaves decay, CO2 gets returned to the atmosphere.

The carbon from fossil fuels has been out of this cycle of absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere and release of CO2 into the atmosphere for million of years. Burning of those fossil fuels adds more CO2 into this system, and a lot of this added CO2 is staying in the atmosphere. That's why the atmospheric CO2 level had been relatively stable for millennia, but then rapidly increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

Isotope ratios of the carbon in atmospheric CO2, along with other means, show that the recent rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration has been due to the burning of fossil fuels.


I just spoke with the author of the study, and he was appalled that the deniers are somehow trying to contort his work into an anti-global warming narrative. He said he'd try to issue a statement, but didn't really know how. I feel bad for a serious scientist doing very interesting and useful research getting pulled into the fake skeptic denier nonsense. But then again, the financial stakes are so high for the fossil fuel industries and petro-states that I suppose there are no limits to how low they'll go to try to keep the people confused and the money flowing in their direction.
Quoting 582. bwi:



I just sent an email to Dr. Crowther at Yale to ask his opinions of the deniers using his new study to somehow claim that the science of global warming isn't settled. Here was my question and his response:

Noting that these links are lighting up global warming denier blogs to "prove" that the science isn't settled on climate change! Have you issued a statement?

For example:

http://www.examiner.com/article/how-worms-may-sta ve-off-global-warming

Sincerely,

Jeff in Maryland



Crowther, Thomas
9:56 PM (7 minutes ago)

to me
Wow. Thanks for the heads up.

I would like to issue a statement as soon as possible. I need to address this nonsense.

Tom


Fantastic, much thanks.
The Force is strong here tonight.

Logic dictates.

Quoting 486. sanflee76:



Well, there is so much information out there to review so i hope some understand why there are skeptics out there. It actually is quite fascinating to know of so much time and energy spent into the science.

Looks like we're about to get hammered here in Sanford. The rain is much needed with all the brown lawns around town.


There is a great deal of "information" that you could find regarding the AGWT and AGW. This, in of itself, is not a valid reason to be a skeptic of the Science behind the AGWT or AGW. Here are some questions that you need to ask if you are a true skeptic:

1. Do greenhouse gases warm a planet's climate more so than if the planet's atmosphere lacked any greenhouse gases?

2. Is CO2 a greenhouse gas?

3. Has the burning of fossil fuels, since the advent of the industrial revolution, emitted billions of tons of CO2 into our atmosphere?

4. Is the atmospheric level of CO2 rising since we started burning fossil fuels with the advent of the industrial revolution?

5. Are there any natural processes that have come into play that could account for the amount of CO2 currently in the atmosphere and in the absence of our burning fossil fuels?

6. Does deforestation alter the albedo of the planet?

7. Does deforestation change the natural carbon cycle of the planet? Keep in mind that some deforestation is the result of burning out the trees to clear the land and this practice creates a double hit to the problem of rising CO2 levels.

8. Is CO2 the only greenhouse gas that human activity is releasing into the atmosphere?

9. Is the atmospheric level of other greenhouse gases rising?

Once you have answered these few basic questions would you still be a skeptic of the AGWT or AGW? If so, what do you base you skepticism on? Would it be merely because you can find a great deal of "information" that does not even try to address the questions that I have asked here?

Should you wonder how much atmosphere Earth has then you should consider that at 10,000 feet above sea level people begin to have difficulty breathing. This is less than two miles of atmosphere. A round trip to your local convenience store, perhaps? Once we ascend to 23,000 feet above sea level then this is the altitude that people begin to die for various reasons. All of these reasons are due to the atmosphere being too thin to support our existence there. 23,000 feet is a little over four miles. This is likely less than the distance that you drive to work. Our planet has about 200 miles of atmosphere. Above this level the molecules of the atmosphere are too sparse. This is about the distance from Houston, Texas to San Antonio, Texas. Does this give a good visual on how much atmosphere we have? Does this offer you a better visual? image source

There are some valid points to be made for skepticism with AGW.

1. When will we reach a 2C of warming?

2. When will the Arctic Ocean experience its first ice free summer?

3. How much warming will occur by the year 2100?

4. How many species will be endangered by 4C of warming?

5. Which species, if any, will become extinct with just 4C of warming?

6. How much warming has to occur that it would initiate enough positive feedbacks that would create an irreversible warming of the planet through any attempts we make towards mitigation efforts?

We all can question these and be skeptical of any answers given. We are exploring new territory with this. We are performing an experiment in the wild and with no controls in place. There is no "Off" switch that would end the experiment. The experiment will run its course and without regards to the outcome for us.
Quoting 590. bwi:



I just spoke with the author of the study, and he was appalled that the deniers are somehow trying to contort his work into an anti-global warming narrative. He said he'd try to issue a statement, but didn't really know how. I feel bad for a serious scientist doing very interesting and useful research getting pulled into the fake skeptic denier nonsense. But then again, the financial stakes are so high for the fossil fuel industries and petro-states that I suppose there are no limits to how low they'll go to try to keep the people confused and the money flowing in their direction.


This has happened a lot recently with Bjorn Stevens having to release a statement regarding his paper on aerosol forcing which can be found here. This is the desperation of science denial, blatant misrepresentation.
Quoting 596. yoboi:

Climate scientist Dr. Murry Salby, Professor and Climate Chair at Macquarie University, Australia explains in a recent, highly-recommended lecture presented at Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, Germany, why man-made CO2 is not the driver of atmospheric CO2 or climate change. Dr. Salby demonstrates:
%u2022CO2 lags temperature on both short [~1-2 year] and long [~1000 year] time scales
%u2022The IPCC claim that "All of the increases [in CO2 concentrations since pre-industrial times] are caused by human activity" is impossible
%u2022"Man-made emissions of CO2 are clearly not the source of atmospheric CO2 levels"
%u2022Satellite observations show the highest levels of CO2 are present over non-industrialized regions, e.g. the Amazon, not over industrialized regions
%u202296% of CO2 emissions are from natural sources, only 4% is man-made
%u2022Net global emissions from all sources correlate almost perfectly with short-term temperature changes [R2=.93] rather than man-made emissions

Link


And here's his Bio....hmmmmmmm
Also dude has never had anything remotely close to being peer reviewed work disputing man induced climate change. Not a single one...


Education and career

Salby received his Bachelor's degree in aerospace engineering in 1973, and his Ph.D. in environmental dynamics from Georgia Tech in 1978.[6] Salby's work focused on upper atmospheric wave propagation for most of his early career. He began as an assistant professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder in 1984, in a department which eventually became the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Salby became an associate professor in 1985 and full professor in 1991, gaining tenure in 1997.[7]

In 1994 Salby set up a non-profit company to receive federal award funds from the National Science Foundation and other agencies for research in parallel with his research work at the University of Colorado, and in 2003 he formed another company as a subcontractor to receive charges for his efforts. Following allegations of an overlap between funding applications, the National Science Foundation began an investigation in March 2005. It advised the University of Colorado, which sought information from Salby but he did not cooperate with this investigation. In October 2006 the university produced its investigation memo, and suspended Salby's privilege of submitting proposals from the university as well as restricting his access to university research facilities. In 2007, Salby was on sabbatical in Australia. Before the university made its final adjudication, Salby resigned from his faculty position. The National Science Foundation investigation report issued on 20 February 2009 found that Salby had overcharged his grants and violated financial conflict of interest policies, displaying "a pattern of deception, a lack of integrity, and a persistent and intentional disregard of NSF and University rules and policies" and a "consistent willingness to violate rules and regulations, whether federal or local, for his personal benefit." It debarred Salby from receiving federal assistance and benefits until 13 August 2012.[2]

After leaving Colorado, Salby joined the faculty of Macquarie University in Australia, where he was appointed Professor of Climate Risk in 2008. In May 2011, Salby's research showing that ozone levels over Antarctica had begun to recover since the Montreal Protocol banned the use of ozone-depleting substances, was published in Geophysical Research Letters.[8][9] Salby's employment at Macquarie was terminated in 2013; his return ticket from Paris was cancelled by Macquarie, stranding Salby in Europe. Macquarie University stated that he was not dismissed because of his views on climate change, but for refusing to fulfill his teaching responsibilities and for inappropriate use of university resources including a corporate credit card.[3][10]
Quoting 596. yoboi:

Climate scientist Dr. Murry Salby, Professor and Climate Chair at Macquarie University, Australia explains in a recent, highly-recommended lecture presented at Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, Germany, why man-made CO2 is not the driver of atmospheric CO2 or climate change. Dr. Salby demonstrates:
%u2022CO2 lags temperature on both short [~1-2 year] and long [~1000 year] time scales
%u2022The IPCC claim that "All of the increases [in CO2 concentrations since pre-industrial times] are caused by human activity" is impossible
%u2022"Man-made emissions of CO2 are clearly not the source of atmospheric CO2 levels"
%u2022Satellite observations show the highest levels of CO2 are present over non-industrialized regions, e.g. the Amazon, not over industrialized regions
%u202296% of CO2 emissions are from natural sources, only 4% is man-made
%u2022Net global emissions from all sources correlate almost perfectly with short-term temperature changes [R2=.93] rather than man-made emissions




Nonsense. You need better heroes.

A CLIMATE sceptic professor fired from his Australian university for alleged policy breaches had previously been banned for three years from accessing US taxpayer-funded science research money.

Dr Murry Salby, sacked in May by Macquarie University in Sydney, was the subject of a long investigation by the US National Science Foundation.

The investigation (pdf), which was finished in February 2009, concluded that over a period when Dr Salby was working at the University of Colorado, he had likely fabricated time sheets in relation to research paid for through NSF money.

We conclude that the Subject (Dr Salby) has engaged in a long-running course of deceptive conduct involving both his University and NSF. His conduct reflects a consistent willingness to violate rules and regulations, whether federal or local, for his personal benefit. This supports a finding that the Subject is not presently responsible, and we recommend that he be debarred for five years.
The NSF subsequently decided to only %u201Cdebar%u201D Dr Salby for three years, preventing him from accessing any NSF research grants or being involved in work related to them. The investigation was carried out by NSF%u2019s Office of Inspector General - an arms-length organisation providing oversight to the NSF.

In recent days, several commentators and bloggers have come out in support of Dr Salby, claiming his contrarian views on human-caused climate change had contributed to his dismissal from Macquarie University. Climate science denialist blogger Anthony Watts claimed Dr Salby%u2019s dismissal illustrated the %u201Cdisturbing lengths a university will go to suppress ideas they don%u2019t agree with%u201D.

News Ltd columnist Andrew Bolt, a regular denier of the science of human-caused climate change, said Dr Salby had been %u201Cpersecuted%u201D because he had %u201Cchallenged the global warming faith%u201D.

Macquarie University released a statement, saying that it had sacked Dr Salby for two reasons, neither of which related to his position on climate science. The statement said Dr Salby %u201Cdid not fulfill his academic obligations, including the obligation to teach%u201D and %u201Chis termination involved breaches of University policies in relation to travel and use of University resources.%u201D

Fraud, liar, cheater.
I'm going to follow sanflee's lead and head to bed.

Brian - it's been wonderful seeing your reading lists again.

ILwthrfan - oh my...

Good night, all.
601. bwi
Quoting 596. yoboi:

Climate scientist Dr. Murry Salby, Professor and Climate Chair at Macquarie University, Australia explains in a recent, highly-recommended lecture presented at Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, Germany, why man-made CO2 is not the driver of atmospheric CO2 or climate change.


OK, I'm violating my own suggestion to quit quoting the trolls, but I feel like we need to take a stand. Within minutes after a prior post has been proven to be completely deceptive, we have another that doesn't even stand a minute's worth of Google scrutiny. I don't want to prolong the agony for people who come to this blog for weather and climate information as opposed to deception, but this troll is obviously paid to be that blatant and oblivious, and sock puppetry should be a lifetime ban.

Quoting 599. Naga5000:



Nonsense. You need better heroes.

A CLIMATE sceptic professor fired from his Australian university for alleged policy breaches had previously been banned for three years from accessing US taxpayer-funded science research money.

Dr Murry Salby, sacked in May by Macquarie University in Sydney, was the subject of a long investigation by the US National Science Foundation.

The investigation (pdf), which was finished in February 2009, concluded that over a period when Dr Salby was working at the University of Colorado, he had likely fabricated time sheets in relation to research paid for through NSF money.

We conclude that the Subject (Dr Salby) has engaged in a long-running course of deceptive conduct involving both his University and NSF. His conduct reflects a consistent willingness to violate rules and regulations, whether federal or local, for his personal benefit. This supports a finding that the Subject is not presently responsible, and we recommend that he be debarred for five years.
The NSF subsequently decided to only %u201Cdebar%u201D Dr Salby for three years, preventing him from accessing any NSF research grants or being involved in work related to them. The investigation was carried out by NSF%u2019s Office of Inspector General - an arms-length organisation providing oversight to the NSF.

In recent days, several commentators and bloggers have come out in support of Dr Salby, claiming his contrarian views on human-caused climate change had contributed to his dismissal from Macquarie University. Climate science denialist blogger Anthony Watts claimed Dr Salby%u2019s dismissal illustrated the %u201Cdisturbing lengths a university will go to suppress ideas they don%u2019t agree with%u201D.

News Ltd columnist Andrew Bolt, a regular denier of the science of human-caused climate change, said Dr Salby had been %u201Cpersecuted%u201D because he had %u201Cchallenged the global warming faith%u201D.

Macquarie University released a statement, saying that it had sacked Dr Salby for two reasons, neither of which related to his position on climate science. The statement said Dr Salby %u201Cdid not fulfill his academic obligations, including the obligation to teach%u201D and %u201Chis termination involved breaches of University policies in relation to travel and use of University resources.%u201D

Fraud, liar, cheater.


Seems like Denier hero!

Science is Satan!
I'm all for our Denier Friend posting---
It reinforces how this is not about science, but abut ideology.
# 596

Really?

(://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/06/climate-sc ientist-dr-murry-salby.html]

This is yer LINK?

Go Phish
As Always BB you are a plethora of information and some of it scares the heck out of me.
was 76.1F here, what was you temp Dakster??
59F at the moment.
Quoting 605. Dakster:

As Always BB you are a plethora of information and some of it scares the heck out of me.



Check out #758 in my blog for something eerie.
Quoting 608. BaltimoreBrian:



Check out #758 in my blog for something eerie.


Oh great... some more scary stuff...

How's your weather BB? Cold enough for you?
It's been partly/mostly cloudy and cooler today, in the 60s since 2 a.m. 61 now, very close to your weather.
So you go down to the low 40Fs at night as well?
Quoting 583. sanflee76:


He's just one of the first few scientists i found when starting research. Again im new at this so im sure there are many many scientists out there to be read upon. I just want to be part of the discussion and learn but don't worry i won't be on here much, today just happened to be a day where i didn't have much to do. Im actually recovering from an illness that went through the entire family so i have been able to spend some time on the computer to whilst time away. Good night

To thoroughly research climate science independently took me four or five years. Do your research not by scientist, but by scientific papers. Learn which journals are highly-regarded and which aren't (E&E is one that is...well, a joke). Realize that even if a paper is published, that doesn't make it right. What happens to a paper after publication is important. In the case of Morner's sea level papers, they have been rejected due to poor quality and dubious data choices.
Quoting 592. Patrap:

The Force is strong here tonight.

Logic dictates.




Speaking of the force, if only we could actually do jedi mind tricks, I'm confident they would work on some of today/this evening's posters.
Quoting 579. sanflee76:
No, my intentions are not dishonest, You say "he has not published anything in regards to climate science or seal level rise in reputable journals" but i beg to differ:...


You need to validate your sources. His peer reviewed works deal with geophysics and paleoseismology. He has no published works on sea level rise in regards to either climate or paleo-climate. Nobody is contesting his credentials or his publications in his respective fields.

What he does have is bunch of self-published garbage that has been thoroughly shredded and debunked by actual climate scientists. In fact, his self-published material is used as examples of how NOT do climate research and analysis. The errors are so glaring in his psuedo-science quackery that probably a decent high school student could tear it apart.

And it wasn't because he's stupid or an idiot. He's obviously an intelligent guy. But he was ignorant of the research and existing science in the field. And instead of educating himself in order to help build a stronger case for his own hypotheses, he went with willful ignorance and arrogance. He blatantly ignored all the existing science and research, claimed all climate scientists were bumbling idiots, and proceeded to make a big ass out of himself when he put forth arguments that would make a drunk undergrad physics student say "Dude...really?".

When he couldn't get his "research" past an editors desk at any respectable journal, he got all huffy, started claiming "conspiracy" and went into self publishing. Because nothing says "I'm legit" more than publishing random crap and conspiracies in a non-peer reviewed venue.

He isn't the first nor the last Ph.D to follow this path. There are several others with similar notoriety who also chose "self-publishing" when the collective respectable science journals summarily dumped their papers into the trash.

People with Ph.D's aren't magically experts in all fields, nor does it make them infallible or incapable of nut-baggery. That's why I actually read scientific papers on the subjects I'm interested in instead of taking someone else's word for it. I also encourage others to do this as well, even if it is just the conclusions section so they know what the paper was trying to convey. At the very least it would cut down on denier posts which claim some research says one thing when in reality it actually says the complete opposite (we have a case of that happening right now on the blog).
Quoting 614. Jedkins01:



Speaking og the force, if only we could actually do jedi mind tricks, I'm confident they would work on some of today/this evening's posters.


Jedi mind tricks do work on the weak minded....

I can't really get into the debate. I've watched this on the blog fro YEARS and I highly doubt any one has changed their mind, just because a poster said something different or pointed something out.
Quoting 608. BaltimoreBrian:



Check out #758 in my blog for something eerie.


Here's something erie:
Quoting 614. Jedkins01:
Speaking of the force, if only we could actually do jedi mind tricks, I'm confident they would work on some of today/this evening's posters.

I have a pretty good illustration of that on my blog (758), stripping the mind bare.
Quoting 612. Dakster:

So you go down to the low 40Fs at night as well?
In the city, not until October.
620. skook
Florida, never ceases to amaze me. Natural beauty surrounds us.


Kayaking down the Rainbow River, ive never seen so many turtles in my life, and of course a river otter in the wild.


Quoting 619. BaltimoreBrian:

In the city, not until October.


SO we cross temperatures... Not run the same gammut of temperatures. Just happy that I don't have to plug the truck in and scrape off the frost.
By July it is Floridian, seldom below 70 at night and 88-93 in the afternoon.
Yes, I have been there during that time...

Nice thing it never gets Floridian up here. :)

If it does, there will be a much different title of Dr. Master's next blog...
Quoting 623. Dakster:

Yes, I have been there during that time...

Nice thing it never gets Floridian up here. :)

If it does, there will be a much different title of Dr. Master's next blog...
Northernmost palm tree in Sitka Alaska. Grim looking thing.

In response to all the comments about GW below, everything you read on the internet is true! Debate that!
The northernmost known unprotected, large Phoenix canariensis in the Western Hemisphere, Gold Beach, Oregon.

I want a TC to track in Atlantic right now,who's with me.
Quoting 625. BaltimoreBrian:

Northernmost palm tree in Sitka Alaska. Grim looking thing.




A friend has palm trees growing in their house up here.

I want to see this type of storm this year for me.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California is producing a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
expected to become conducive for some slow development of this
system over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next
couple of days well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of the system over the weekend
while the low moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC is still not buyin the GFS EPac CA/Mex Hurricane

But they do buy possibly two storms far far away from land and nearing CPac

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California is producing a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
expected to become conducive for some slow development of this
system over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next
couple of days well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of the system over the weekend
while the low moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Brown
Good Morning..

UKMet




425

WTNT80 EGRR 210418



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.05.2015



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 36.9N 75.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 22.05.2015 36.9N 75.5W WEAK

12UTC 22.05.2015 39.2N 69.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.05.2015 43.6N 62.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.05.2015 49.2N 55.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.05.2015 54.7N 55.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.05.2015 POST-TROPICAL



634. MahFL
Quoting 622. BaltimoreBrian:

By July it is Floridian, seldom below 70 at night and 88-93 in the afternoon.


Where I live in FL we always say 75-95. In July you hardly ever get 80's. Also remeber it's the humidity in FL that makes the summer weather miserable.
Quoting 625. BaltimoreBrian:

Northernmost palm tree in Sitka Alaska. Grim looking thing.




LOL BB, Didn't know dead palms counted! haha
Quoting 620. skook:

Florida, never ceases to amaze me. Natural beauty surrounds us.


Kayaking down the Rainbow River, ive never seen so many turtles in my life, and of course a river otter in the wild.





Living in SW FL we became members of the Audubon @ Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary in Naples as well as the Naples Botanical Garden.

Places we often frequent to enjoy what this climate has to offer in nature and variety of vegetation.

Work calls...enjoy your day..

NWS, Wilmington, NC

INSTABILITY WILL BE GROWING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...PEAKING AROUND 2500 J/KG AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL REACH AROUND 35
KT...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

THUS...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND POINTS NORTH. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL...IN THESE AREAS AS WE DO EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
BECOME RATHER WELL ORGANIZED. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO CHANCE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

ESPI now @ its highest level since the 2009/2010 El-Nino. Very impressive value today.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 1.62

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 9m 9 minutes ago
GFS maxes out the scale with the westerly wind burst in the C/EPac -- so far east! #ElNino
Thought I'd chirp in, not the most impressive but here are the northernmost palms in the wild on the East Coast.

Sabal minor palms, Monkey Island, Currituck County, NC.
It was so cold in Michigan January to February I can't even believe this to be true.
Quoting 641. mclement66:

It was so cold in Michigan January to February I can't even believe this to be true.

Why not?


Edit, image not shown, raw url: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cg i?sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=02&year1=2015&ye ar2=2015&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=rob

Edit 2, something puts a space in that url, it is at "... p/nmaps.cg i?sat=4&sst..." between 'g' and 'i'. Can't get it to get lost (would like it to kill itself).
Quoting 641. mclement66:

It was so cold in Michigan January to February I can't even believe this to be true.
Hope this helps:

A nice cool 58 degrees here in Pitt County VA with cloud cover and sprinkles.
As we near June 1st, wind shear around Florida and the SW Atlantic is somewhat favorable but it is screaming across the Caribbean. WKC won't be happy with that.

Going to be in Naples all weekend, looking for some good weather.
Quoting 599. Naga5000:



Nonsense. You need better heroes.

A CLIMATE sceptic professor fired from his Australian university for alleged policy breaches had previously been banned for three years from accessing US taxpayer-funded science research money.......




At the risk of being attacked as a denier (I am not) and called a "troll", the fact that this guy was lining his pockets doesn't really prove anything with regard to his stance on climate change. All these investigations pointed out was that he is probably a greedy bastard, but don't actually prove anything regarding his science or lack thereof. He could just as easily been abusing grant money and credit cards and been an AGW proponent, unless you believe that AGW researchers are God's chosen people and are incapable of human foibles.
Quoting 641. mclement66:

It was so cold in Michigan January to February I can't even believe this to be true.

If you follow the link in the caption of Figure 1 to the NCDC, there's all kinds of info and graphics available. Michigan and the eastern U.S./Canada may have been cold, but the planet as a whole was not. Here are the similar graphics as April in Figure 1, for the months of Jan, Feb & Mar:



Quoting 646. NickyTesla:



At the risk of being attacked as a denier (I am not) and called a "troll", the fact that this guy was lining his pockets doesn't really prove anything with regard to his stance on climate change. All these investigations pointed out was that he is probably a greedy bastard, but don't actually prove anything regarding his science or lack thereof. He could just as easily been abusing grant money and credit cards and been an AGW proponent, unless you believe that AGW researchers are God's chosen people and are incapable of human foibles.


No, but any introductory graduate proseminar course should tell you about the perils of ethical violations and the stain it places on your body of work. And as other's mentioned, he has never actually published his anti-AGW work, he merely went on the denier speaking tour which is quite lucrative.
Quoting 646. NickyTesla:



At the risk of being attacked as a denier (I am not) and called a "troll", the fact that this guy was lining his pockets doesn't really prove anything with regard to his stance on climate change. All these investigations pointed out was that he is probably a greedy bastard, but don't actually prove anything regarding his science or lack thereof. He could just as easily been abusing grant money and credit cards and been an AGW proponent, unless you believe that AGW researchers are God's chosen people and are incapable of human foibles.
As Naga nicely summed up, the man is a proven fraud, liar, and cheater. It wouldn't matter which side of the climate "argument" he supported; in fact, it wouldn't matter which side of any scientific argument he supported. He's simply not a credible witness. Period.
Quoting 646. NickyTesla:



At the risk of being attacked as a denier (I am not) and called a "troll", the fact that this guy was lining his pockets doesn't really prove anything with regard to his stance on climate change. All these investigations pointed out was that he is probably a greedy bastard, but don't actually prove anything regarding his science or lack thereof. He could just as easily been abusing grant money and credit cards and been an AGW proponent, unless you believe that AGW researchers are God's chosen people and are incapable of human foibles.

If he had been an AGW proponent and had done the same thing he would still be discredited. A scientist without professional integrity isn't worth much.
has there been any news about the tornado rateing with the tornados we had a few days a go seems like there no news what so ever nor have i seen damge reports or photos
Quoting 651. Tazmanian:

has there been any news about the tornado rateing with the tornados we had a few days a go seems like there no news what so ever nor have i seen damge reports or photos

I was looking through reports/photos/tweets on wu's news page about this last night. Can't recall if there were ratings (it was late and I was tired), but there's definitely photos.
Quoting 650. LAbonbon:


If he had been an AGW proponent and had done the same thing he would still be discredited. A scientist without professional integrity isn't worth much.


I disagree. Being unethical is not the same as not being scientifically credible, it just makes it much more difficult to be taken seriously. I was just pointing out that being greedy doesn't necessarily make you wrong, and the attack on this guy was all about his unethical grant shenanigans. If Einstein, Newton, da Vinci, Darwin or Galileo had been unethical creeps, it may have tarnished their images, but wouldn't prove they were wrong. Truth is truth, no matter who the messenger is. Don't get me wrong, I'm not defending this guy at all. I am not a denier, but the long, multi-paragraph attack on his ethics doesn't prove anything either way.
Quoting 592. Patrap:

The Force is strong here tonight.

Logic dictates.




not only did i miss the force but grothar too! :P
Quoting 646. NickyTesla:



At the risk of being attacked as a denier (I am not) and called a "troll", the fact that this guy was lining his pockets doesn't really prove anything with regard to his stance on climate change. All these investigations pointed out was that he is probably a greedy bastard, but don't actually prove anything regarding his science or lack thereof. He could just as easily been abusing grant money and credit cards and been an AGW proponent, unless you believe that AGW researchers are God's chosen people and are incapable of human foibles.

Um, I provided two links earlier in this thread that pointed out the scientific reasons why this guy's work is garbage. No victimhood needed.
Beliefs,from any Human is not relevant to C02's ability to absorb long wave radiation.

There is no "debate"

The Planet is warming from the Humans use of Fossil Fuel burning that raises the CO2 ppm.

Heres a Hint, no one born or alive today will ever see 400ppm CO2 again.

Just like when I was born in 1960, when it was 315ppm. This rate is Doom, with a Capital D.

In the last 800K years the CO2 has never been this High

See, Science is like dat.
Quoting 653. Patrap:

Double Dutch "Derp"

O the sweet stench of sad Irony

Jeb Bush: It's 'Just Really Arrogant' To Say The Science Is Decided On Climate Change
Reuters
Posted: 05/21/2015 8:26 am EDT Updated: 1 hour ago


It's even more arrogant for Bush to pronounce on a subject he obviously has never researched.
Quoting 656. Misanthroptimist:


Um, I provided two links earlier in this thread that pointed out the scientific reasons why this guy's work is garbage. No victimhood needed.


Um, well thanks. I am in no way making him a victim, I was merely pointing out that the long posts listing a litany of his ethical shortcomings in no way prove anything either way. At no point did I try to refute your links, say they were invalid or anything else to defend him, but um thanks for the condescension.
Quoting 654. NickyTesla:

If Einstein, Newton, da Vinci, Darwin or Galileo had been unethical creeps, it may have tarnished their images, but wouldn't prove they were wrong. Truth is truth, no matter who the messenger is. Don't get me wrong, I'm not defending this guy at all. I am not a denier, but the long, multi-paragraph attack on his ethics doesn't prove anything either way.
If it had turned out that Darwin was being paid large sums of money in secret by some shadow group to invent and support the theory of evolution, or if history showed that Galileo was doing the same to discredit the geocentric thoeory, it wouldn't simply have "tarnished their images"; it would have rendered them non-credible. You wouldn't know about them, except as scoundrels. And any science they produced--even the real stuff--would have been rightly ignored.

To maintain credibility, scientists have to remain unimpeachable in the methods they use and the work they produce. The guy in question chose not to do so. Therefore, it doesn't even matter whether he's right or wrong; he can't be believed either way, and is best ignored.
Quoting 659. NickyTesla:



Um, well thanks. I am in no way making him a victim, I was merely pointing out that the long posts listing a litany of his ethical shortcomings in no way prove anything either way. At no point did I try to refute your links, say they were invalid or anything else to defend him, but um thanks for the condescension.

Anytime. Glad I could help.
Quoting 645. Bucsboltsfan:

As we near June 1st, wind shear around Florida and the SW Atlantic is somewhat favorable but it is screaming across the Caribbean. WKC won't be happy with that.

Going to be in Naples all weekend, looking for some good weather.


You might get that good weather over here, however, the forecast seems to change as quickly as one can hit the refresh button. I would expect rain at some point, possibly more so on Saturday.

Funny too the difference when you enter in one of the twenty some odd zip codes we have what the results say here on WU.
Quoting 660. yoboi:

With that logic guess we just ignore the IPCC since their leader made bad choices...

Nope. No one claimed that what-his-name's university should be ignored. Just him.

Logic is only useful when used properly.
Quoting 661. Neapolitan:

If it had turned out that Darwin was being paid large sums of money in secret by some shadow group to invent and support the theory of evolution, or if history showed that Galileo was doing the same to discredit the geocentric thoeory, it wouldn't simply have "tarnished their images"; it would have rendered them non-credible. You wouldn't know about them, except as scoundrels. And any science they produced--even the real stuff--would have been rightly ignored.

To maintain credibility, scientists have to remain unimpeachable in the methods they use and the work they produce. The guy in question chose not to do so. Therefore, it doesn't even matter whether he's right or wrong; he can't be believed either way, and is best ignored.


So if Darwin or Galileo were "paid by some shadow group", then evolution would not occur and the earth really would be the center of the universe? Basic truths are basic truths, the ethics of the messenger is irrelevant other than obtaining publicity/acceptance for their theories. Obviously as "scoundrels" their credibility would be questioned, but it still would not affect the basic truth. Whether this AGW denier is a scoundrel or not, I am merely stating that it is not proof either way regarding his stance on the science. The truth is still the truth. I happen to think that he is wrong and that there is ample evidence to refute his stance, but his character regarding grant money is not that evidence.


The best activity I could find is 384 hours out, and it only looks like a cluster of thunderstorms near over Cuba. Zzzzzzz...
Quoting 656. Misanthroptimist:


Um, I provided two links earlier in this thread that pointed out the scientific reasons why this guy's work is garbage. No victimhood needed.

I think you're referring to Morner, whereas NickyTesla's referring to Salby. yoboi unearthed a piece referring to him (see posts 596 and up).
Quoting 663. FrostyNaples:



You might get that good weather over here, however, the forecast seems to change as quickly as one can hit the refresh button. I would expect rain at some point, possibly more so on Saturday.

Funny too the difference when you enter in one of the twenty some odd zip codes we have what the results say here on WU.


Thx, looking at the forecast it seems that Saturday afternoon is the best chance of rain. Pretty weird though, I've been seeing rain chances from 40% to 90%.
Quoting 666. fmbill:



The best activity I could find is 384 hours out, and it only looks like a cluster of thunderstorms near over Cuba. Zzzzzzz...

What about EPac - wasn't there a possibility there?
Quoting 658. Misanthroptimist:


It's even more arrogant for Bush to pronounce on a subject he obviously has never researched.

They always seem to describe what they see in a mirror.
Quoting 665. NickyTesla:



So if Darwin or Galileo were "paid by some shadow group", then evolution would not occur and the earth really would be the center of the universe? Basic truths are basic truths, the ethics of the messenger is irrelevant other than obtaining publicity/acceptance for their theories. Obviously as "scoundrels" their credibility would be questioned, but it still would not affect the basic truth. Whether this AGW denier is a scoundrel or not, I am merely stating that it is not proof either way regarding his stance on the science. The truth is still the truth. I happen to think that he is wrong and that there is ample evidence to refute his stance, but his character regarding grant money is not that evidence.
I'm afraid you've again missed the point. If a particular scientist destroys his scientific credibility through the commission of numerous ethical violations, it matters not whether he's right or wrong; nothing he says--no research he performs, no papers he publishes--will be or should be granted an audience. Period. For that reason, it was a mistake for the OP to even cite that particular AGW denialist as an expert.

Just ask Hwang Woo-suk...
Quoting 649. Neapolitan:

As Naga nicely summed up, the man is a proven fraud, liar, and cheater. It wouldn't matter which side of the climate "argument" he supported; in fact, it wouldn't matter which side of any scientific argument he supported. He's simply not a credible witness. Period.


NAGA5000, only those in the know are credible and the thought police make that decision!
06z has twins name storms in the E pac

Quoting 667. LAbonbon:


I think you're referring to Morner, whereas NickyTesla's referring to Salby. yoboi unearthed a piece referring to him (see posts 596 and up).

Post 596 is no more, probably why I missed it. :-)

Salby is no better. His CO2 work is appallingly bad. I can give links to refutations upon request.
One thing is certain with GW..its an excellent avenue to create more taxes by govt.
Quoting 672. trunkmonkey:



NAGA5000, only those in the know are credible and the thought police make that decision!

Actually, the utility of the idea/explanation make the decision in the vast majority of cases. Every now and again a fraudster turns up. After they are exposed, their work (If any) is usually dismissed. If the fraudster happened to be right, some other honest scientist will discover it.
Quoting 675. LargoFl:

One thing is certain with GW..its an excellent avenue to create more taxes by govt.

Yeah, because we all know that government can't just raise taxes anytime they want to raise them, right? :-)
Quoting 650. LAbonbon:


If he had been an AGW proponent and had done the same thing he would still be discredited. A scientist without professional integrity isn't worth much.


The simple solution is to find a credible scientist(s) who can replicate the results. If global warming is a hoax or whatever, then it shouldn't be too difficult to show, conclusively, that the planet isn't warming using sound research and analysis that hasn't been corrupted by unethical behavior.

If I were a denier I'd be asking myself why no such science ever seems to exist. Why can't anyone simply show an anti-AGW trend that can withstand even gentle scrutiny? If, for example, I want to show that the Moon orbits the Earth I can do so without ever going into machinations at NASA or fraud at the UN or whatever. Why is it that the only "proof" the denier folks can ever muster involves shadowy allegations of conspiracy and manipulation?
Quoting 609. Dakster:



Oh great... some more scary stuff...

How's your weather BB? Cold enough for you?

We're chilly today in the Mid Atlantic. After this three nice days, Fri-Sun, then a LONG heat wave Teus- ????!
with highs near 90 and lows near 70;

forever!
Quoting 674. Misanthroptimist:


Post 596 is no more, probably why I missed it. :-)

Salby is no better. His CO2 work is appallingly bad. I can give links to refutations upon request.

You mean like this one?

Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
ESPI now @ its highest level since the 2009/2010 El-Nino. Very impressive value today.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 1.62




so./...i'm looking at the espi here...the graphs match and all....but it's reporting an espi of -.11....which doesn't seem right......but yours reports 1.62....i wonder if someone could explain the huge difference



The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is -0.11

ESPI is calcuated with precipitation anomalies from two areas (Figure 1) in the Pacific Ocean and quantifies the strength of ENSO, in terms of regional rainfall changes. A detailed summary of the methodology can be found at http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/ESPIsummary.html. Time series of the bimonthly El Niño Index (EI), La Niña Index Precipitation Index (ESPI) are shown in Figure 2 .
Quoting 677. Misanthroptimist:


Yeah, because we all know that government can't just raise taxes anytime they want to raise them, right? :-)
yes but sometimes they need an excuse to create new taxes
Can't read the phrase "a few storms may be severe" in the local forecast without reading it in Jim Cantore's voice...we'll see how heavy they are this evening, didn't even hit an inch of rain Tuesday.
Quoting 675. LargoFl:

One thing is certain with GW..its an excellent avenue to create more taxes by govt.


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
Quoting 654. NickyTesla:



I disagree. Being unethical is not the same as not being scientifically credible, it just makes it much more difficult to be taken seriously. I was just pointing out that being greedy doesn't necessarily make you wrong, and the attack on this guy was all about his unethical grant shenanigans. If Einstein, Newton, da Vinci, Darwin or Galileo had been unethical creeps, it may have tarnished their images, but wouldn't prove they were wrong. Truth is truth, no matter who the messenger is. Don't get me wrong, I'm not defending this guy at all. I am not a denier, but the long, multi-paragraph attack on his ethics doesn't prove anything either way.
I think the point is that when his honesty and integrity in financial dealings and reporting on his grant-funded studies is called into question, the veracity of his other statements is thus called into question also -- not that they are clearly false, but that their veracity needs to be verified by examination by independent researchers whose expertise qualifies them to judge accurately. Falsification of information in an unrelated area can lead to doubts about his other statements.
Quoting 682. LargoFl:

yes but sometimes they need an excuse to create new taxes


You think they would have chose something better than an issue about half the country can't grasp, huh? Sorry, Largo, the idea of global warming to raise taxes is just very poor conspiracy theory. The truth is, CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and like with most issues, we aren't preventative we are reactive. That notion of how our government fails to operate efficiently will inevitably cause tax increases to pay for the cost of failing to do something about it when we could. On that end, yes GW will inevitably lead to higher taxes, but not because the government is looking for an excuse to raise taxes. Current effective taxes are at or near historic lows for nearly all brackets.
Say's the Guy from the State where Climate Change has been Banned to speak about...by the Guv'na.

Seems we skipped dat part of free speech over dere.

Why surely the ones fearful of "Gub'ment" missed dat un.

O da ironie's dey doos burns Hotsui'
Quoting 682. LargoFl:

yes but sometimes they need an excuse to create new taxes
I'm all for creating new taxes if it serves for the better good of the people in the long run, like spending money on things that can curb carbon emissions. Also, I had really wanted to see what the bullet train along I-4 would have done, but our stupid republican governor voted it down, despite getting money from the federal government and having private companies pay for the cost of construction. It would have only cost us a penny out of our pockets to keep it in operation.
Quoting 686. Naga5000:



You think they would have chose something better than an issue about half the country can't grasp, huh? Sorry, Largo, the idea of global warming to raise taxes is just very poor conspiracy theory. The truth is, CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and like most issues, we aren't preventative we are reactive. That notion of how our government fails to operate efficiently will inevitably cause tax increases to pay for the cost of failing to do something about it when we could. On that end, yes GW will inevitably lead to higher taxes, but not because the government is looking for an excuse to raise taxes. Current effective taxes are at or near historic lows for nearly all brackets.



Fair & Balanced

You decide
A Portlight Featured Blog entry



Photo: The New York Times

The Right To Be Rescued: Disability Justice in an Age of Disaster

Adrien A. Weibgen

Yale Law Journal

As communities face more and more climate-related challenges, they will face more moral ones as well. Although it is tempting to think of weather and climate incidents as natural disasters, that is a misnomer; nearly all natural disasters arise in part from human error or oversight.5 More fundamentally, the choices we make about where to live, how to live, and how to build put us at risk for disasters. In this way, disasters are socially constructed. How we choose to respond to the urgent human needs that arise from large-scale weather events determines the degree to which these events become disasters. As disasters become more frequent, social inequalities will be thrown into sharper relief, and the consequences of such inequalities will become increasingly dire. Communities will be forced to grapple with two essential questions: in preparing for disasters, how ready is ready enough, and to what degree should identity and social status determine who is put in danger, left in misery, and left to die?


From The Guardian's Environment section:

El Niño could bring drought and famine in west Africa, scientists warn
Global weather system that plays havoc with weather across the world could exacerbate region’s dry spell and devastate Sahel like it did in 1972


People walk past a dry riverbed in the Matam region of northeastern Senegal in the Sahel region of Africa. Photograph: Rebecca Blackwell/AP

Karl Mathiesen
Thursday 21 May 2015 10.13 EDT

A global weather phenomenon could cause a famine in the Sahel this year by combining with already dry conditions to create a “double whammy” for the region, scientists and aid groups have warned.

Professor Adam Scaife, a long term forecaster at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, said models now agreed an El Niño event was likely and the first impacts may be felt as early as June.

El Niño is caused by a reversal of trade winds in the Pacific that allow warm water to spread east, across the ocean. The two to seven year cycle plays havoc with weather across the world.

“[A] place that’s really important to stress is west Africa, where there is increased risk of drought during El Niño. That is exacerbated this year by some conditions [including] cooling of the North Atlantic,” he said.

In west Africa, Scaife said conditions were aligning in a similar way to the massive 1972 drought that devastated the Sahel with famine. During this event, drying from El Niño tipped the region into full blown drought.

Scaife said the current parched conditions combined with further warming and drying from El Niño would be a “double whammy”.

Oxfam’s west Africa regional director Aboubacry Tall said the partial failure of the 2014 rainy season had left between 300,000 and 400,000 people in the Sahel without access to a secure food supply.


Full Article
"Don't Fry Day" May 22, 2015: Excessive Heat and Sun Safety Guidance for 2015 Season


Excerpt:

Skin cancer, which can develop from overexposure to UV radiation,
is the most common form of cancer in the United States. Nearly
5 million people are treated for skin cancer each year in the
United States, at an estimated annual cost of $8.1 billion. Skin
cancer can be serious, expensive, and sometimes even deadly.
Fortunately, most skin cancers can be prevented. The first steps
are to know how to access the current heat and UV radiation
(UV Index) forecasts, and to know how to use them. Below are some
essential heat and UV resources.




As someone who has gone through multiple bouts with skin cancer (squamous cell) heed the warnings when you are young and protect yourself from excessive sun exposure!
Quoting 675. LargoFl:

One thing is certain with GW..its an excellent avenue to create more taxes by govt.
One thing is even more certain with GW..it's an excellent way for the fossil fuel industry to gouge us all for roughly $10 million per minute.

Yes, $10 million per minute.

"Fossil fuel companies are benefitting from global subsidies of $5.3tn (£3.4tn) a year, equivalent to $10m a minute every day, according to a startling new estimate by the International Monetary Fund.

"The IMF calls the revelation “shocking” and says the figure is an “extremely robust” estimate of the true cost of fossil fuels. The $5.3tn subsidy estimated for 2015 is greater than the total health spending of all the world’s governments.

"The vast sum is largely due to polluters not paying the costs imposed on governments by the burning of coal, oil and gas. These include the harm caused to local populations by air pollution as well as to people across the globe affected by the floods, droughts and storms being driven by climate change."

"Nicholas Stern, an eminent climate economist at the London School of Economics, said: “This very important analysis shatters the myth that fossil fuels are cheap by showing just how huge their real costs are. There is no justification for these enormous subsidies for fossil fuels, which distort markets and damages economies, particularly in poorer countries.”"

In light of that, the fear of "higher taxes" is all the more ludicrous, no?
I'm all for creating new taxes if it serves for the better good of the people in the long run, like spending money on things that can curb carbon emissions. Also, I had really wanted to see what the bullet train along I-4 would have done, but our stupid republican governor voted it down, despite getting money from the federal government and having private companies pay for the cost of construction. It would have only cost us a penny out of our pockets to keep it in operation.

maybe we could just change our spending structure........where might we take away the up to 52 billion of subsidies we give oil...and give it to green technologies.....or funding trillion dollar wars that were started under false pretenses......we don't need to raise taxes...just divert them....or better yet.....get haliburton and the koch brothers to start a division creating green technologies....then the right on government hill would start believing in AGW and we'd see things get done
Put Veterans and others to werk installing Solar and other green technologies and that will spur investment, increase the coffers from the wages and help reduce the Human CO2 footprint.

Logic,

"Gee"
I've been taking a break for a while..got the horrible news and just couldn't believe it.I don't want to go into detail but a horrible crime was commited here in D.C to a family of 4 of which I knew the wife.Please just pray and thank you for taking the time to read this
697. JRRP
WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 30 minHace 30 minutos
Mid-May ENSO 3.4 Plumes hot off the press from @climatesociety; Forecast mean is high +1.6C but a 3 degree C spread!
Quoting 696. washingtonian115:

I've been taking a break for a while..got the horrible news and just couldn't believe it.I don't want to go into detail but a horrible crime was commited here in D.C to a family of 4 of which I knew the wife.Please just pray and thank you for taking the time to read this
You are in my thoughts and prayers Washi, we as a Wunder Community should come together in times like this. Sorry to hear of this sad news, these things are never good. Hoping for justice, healing, and recovery to the family and those who knew the wife. We must put an end to domestic violence!
Quoting 646. NickyTesla:



At the risk of being attacked as a denier (I am not) and called a "troll", the fact that this guy was lining his pockets doesn't really prove anything with regard to his stance on climate change.


No, but it calls it into question. In the scientific community, if you are nailed for ethical violations it pretty much ends your career. Even if your work is correct, no one will touch it with a 10 meter cattle prod until someone else reproduces and publishes the work.

All these investigations pointed out was that he is probably a greedy bastard, but don't actually prove anything regarding his science or lack thereof.


Irrelevant. Ethics violations are serious in the science community. It's a violation of trust. His integrity is compromised. It calls into question all of his professional work. Referencing someone's work who has a history of ethics violations earns a one way trip into the trash. Any scientist who wishes to utilize his past results will basically have to redo the same research from start to finish, as the previous work has been tainted.

The science community is not full of of chummy old pals. Commiting ethics violations is career suicide.

He could just as easily been abusing grant money and credit cards and been an AGW proponent, unless you believe that AGW researchers are God's chosen people and are incapable of human foibles.


Irrelevant. Your position on scientific matters does not absolve you ethics violations. It doesn't matter if your Einstein or some uknown post doc just trying to make a name for yourself. If your integrity is questionable, then everything you have touched is questionable regardless of whether if it is actually found to be credible or not.
Lazard Capital has done a solid analysis of unsubsidized costs of renewables vs fossil fuels for energy consumption, pdf in the link below:

Link

Utility-scale Solar and Wind in the West and Southwest are now cheaper than new natural gas plants when looking at total costs including investments (measured by $/MWh)
I found this article to be fascinating.

From EOS:

Tracking the Missing Heat from the Global Warming Hiatus
Despite indications that the Pacific Ocean is helping to take up the world's missing surface heat, the heat doesn't linger; oceanographers now find that heat has moved over to the Indian Ocean.

Illustration of increased trade winds in the Pacific and Indian Oceans during the recent warming hiatus, which enhanced the flow of ocean water through the Indonesian archipelago. This resulted in an abrupt increase of Indian Ocean heat content. Credit: Sang-Ki Lee

By Christina Reed 4 hours ago

At the end of the 20th century, climate scientists noticed what they thought at first was an anomaly: a slowdown in the pace of global warming in the lower atmosphere. Today, it is a recognized trend that has lasted more than 15 years. Perplexed, oceanographers are on a hunt to find where this missing heat has gone.

In the latest report out of Nature Geoscience this week, University of Miami physical oceanographer Sang-Ki Lee and colleagues may have found some of this missing heat: The Pacific Ocean is keeping its cool by sending heat over to the Indian Ocean. This heat redistribution, the researchers say, could play a role in regulating the rate of global warming.

Full Article
Quoting 698. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You are in my thoughts and prayers Washi, we as a Wunder Community should come together in times like this. Sorry to hear of this sad news, these things are never good. Hoping for justice, healing, and recovery to the family and those who knew the wife. We must put an end to domestic violence!
If it's the case in this story, there doesn't seem to be much evidence of domestic violence. It looks like a home invasion type robbery committed by at least one really ruthless thug.
Quoting 697. JRRP:

WSI Energy Weather %u200F@WSI_Energy 30 minHace 30 minutos
Mid-May ENSO 3.4 Plumes hot off the press from @climatesociety; Forecast mean is high 1.6C but a 3 degree C spread!


In other words,there is no consensus on how strong El Nino will be at peak.Is really a very large spread.

Quoting 665. NickyTesla:



So if Darwin or Galileo were "paid by some shadow group", then evolution would not occur and the earth really would be the center of the universe? Basic truths are basic truths, the ethics of the messenger is irrelevant other than obtaining publicity/acceptance for their theories. Obviously as "scoundrels" their credibility would be questioned, but it still would not affect the basic truth. Whether this AGW denier is a scoundrel or not, I am merely stating that it is not proof either way regarding his stance on the science. The truth is still the truth. I happen to think that he is wrong and that there is ample evidence to refute his stance, but his character regarding grant money is not that evidence.


Great or even stellar performance cannot always clean a tarnished reputation. There is a reason why Pete Rose is not in the Baseball Hall of Fame. If someone is unethical in one thing, you cannot trust them to be ethical in another, no matter what their performance proves. Likewise, a fellow named Wallace also worked on evolutionary theory, so the theory would have been "proven" (regardless of your straw argument supposing what if Darwin was on the take). Actually, Wallace's paper spurred Darwin to publish, showing that scientists do cite one another and peer-review their work for validity. Your analogy fails although you are making an interesting philosophical argument. What is your major?
Quoting 676. Misanthroptimist:


Actually, the utility of the idea/explanation make the decision in the vast majority of cases. Every now and again a fraudster turns up. After they are exposed, their work (If any) is usually dismissed. If the fraudster happened to be right, some other honest scientist will discover it.

Exactly what I meant to say in my reply above as well.
Keep an eye on this mess out in the western EPAC for development within the next couple of days.

Quoting 702. sar2401:

If it's the case in this story, there doesn't seem to be much evidence of domestic violence. It looks like a home invasion type robbery committed by at least one really ruthless thug.
Hmm...$40,000!? I don't think you just drop off $40,000 at someone's house with something not fishy going on.
Quoting 665. NickyTesla:
So if Darwin or Galileo were "paid by some shadow group", then evolution would not occur and the earth really would be the center of the universe?


I'm not sure how you arrived at your conclusion, as it isn't even remotely related to what he was saying.

If Darwin or Galileo were found to have committed ethics violation, then their scientific contributions would also be called into question. Their work would remain discredited until one or more CREDIBLE researchers validated or invalidated their work.

It doesn't matter whether or not their work is found ultimately correct or incorrect. Their work wouldn't be credible in legitimate scientific discourse until the validity could be established by others.

Basic truths are basic truths, the ethics of the messenger is irrelevant other than obtaining publicity/acceptance for their theories. Obviously as "scoundrels" their credibility would be questioned, but it still would not affect the basic truth.


If your looking for truth, try philosphy. Truth is subjective. Science doesn't deal in truth. It deals in facts. If someone contributing to those facts is found to have questionable integrity, then it also calls into question the validity of their contributions.

Upon further investigation it be found that their contributions were correct. However, that doesn't change the fact that until such an investigation can establish the validity of the results in question, the work does not have credibility.

Integrity is just as important as being correct when it comes to scientific research. Anything that calls the integrity of a researcher into question also calls everything he or she has does into question as well.

Whether this AGW denier is a scoundrel or not, I am merely stating that it is not proof either way regarding his stance on the science. The truth is still the truth. I happen to think that he is wrong and that there is ample evidence to refute his stance, but his character regarding grant money is not that evidence.


You're not getting it.

If a scientist's integrity has been called into question, whether or not he/she is correct is irrelevant. Their work is simply not credible until someone else re-establishes it's credibility. Citing work that has had it's credibility called into question as evidence to support other research is a really good way to get on the blacklist of respectable science journals.

And this is why scientists get really pissed off when it is found that someone in their area of research has committed ethics violations. Research builds on top of other research. Given the size of science communities, it's quite likely that their work, or someone else work that they cited, will include citations the work that has now had it's integrity questioned. That, in turn, calls into question the integrity of their work since they relied on the results of the now questionable research. Now the scientists have to go back and either re-evaluate that work to re-establish the credibility of the research chain, or they have to find other research/modify their own research so as to not rely on the questionable works. Doing that, and then potentially having to go through the peer review process again on work they've already done is a lot of aggravating and frustrating work that prevents the scientists from actually doing new research (a process which could take years, depending on the research). Worse, scientists have to do this on their "free time" since there's no magical "Correct Your Research" fund to pay them when it is found the work they relied upon to complete their research may not be valid.
Quoting 703. Tropicsweatherpr:



In other words,there is no consensus on how strong El Nino will be at peak.Is really a very large spread.


Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12 Eric Blake retweeted IRI
I love and hate this diagram -- showing models that have no skill and lots of skill together is kinda misleading.
Strong storm heading into Orlando soon. Nice shot of it here.

From regression analyses of NOAA online sea level data for Key West it appears that the rate of sea level rise has dropped to essentially zero in the past 15 years. However, the local county and city planning processes continue to use a forecast of very rapid sea level rise. Has the rate of change in sea level rise slowed world wide recently?
In other words,there is no consensus on how strong El Nino will be at peak.Is really a very large spread.

the climate models have little history to go on due to the timing of the event and the dynamical models are having a hard time with the kelvin wave and they're all screwed up due to the spring barrier
Lots of lightning with this cell to my SW heading for Orlando actually Seaworld to be exact.

Quoting 672. trunkmonkey:



NAGA5000, only those in the know are credible and the thought police make that decision!


So why do you participate here, when clearly Wunderground and Drs Henson and Masters are in on the scam and in the thrall of the thought police? How can you even trust them to report to you the basics of tropical weather if they're so deluded and/or dishonest about something so fundamental?
@EricBlake12 Eric Blake retweeted IRI
I love and hate this diagram -- showing models that have no skill and lots of skill together is kinda misleading.



eric should know about "misleading' he posted a graph to support his statement and another pro explained how he was using the wrong graph...hashtag....red faced
In the meantime the Subtropical Jet Stream is screaming.

Good afternoon with some insane flashflooding yesterday in Izmir/Turkey, fortunately without any loss of life (afaik):



Izmir sees flash flood due to half hour of heavy rain
May 21, 2015, Thursday/ 17:41:30/ TODAYSZAMAN.COM / ISTANBUL
Turkey's western province of Izmir was hit by a flash flood caused by heavy rain that lasted around half an hour at around noon on Wednesday.
The rain, accompanied by northeaster winds and hail, led to floods, especially at high points in Izmir. Meanwhile, social media users circulated striking photographs on the Internet showing the gravity of the situation. The photograph of a man drifting away in a flood in the Gultepe neighborhood particularly drew attention on the Internet. Adem Altiparmak, the man seen in the picture, managed to survive after he was dragged around 400 meters in the flood. ...


Here is this video:


Yesterday afternoon and evening I've watched a lot of crazy lightning with all those storms which popped up over Eastern Europe from Turkey (below at the uttermost right) up to Poland.


View of airmasses yesterday, a bit later than the storm event in Izmir.
Greetings. From Arizona, where I'm sitting in a garden surrounded by Cacti, rocks and sand.
There are Bunnies hopping about. Not the Hugh Heffner type. Never mind, you have to be 60-something to catch that....
Grand Canyon was Incredible to me. The pictures one sees cannot do it justice.
The removal of that much rock and sand to create such a massive void, and the remnants of petrified trees, animals, and comunities that have gone extinct can only have been the result of Torrential rain over many eons, and it's ceasing.

Made me realise, up close, what Climate Change can do......
Quoting 704. Pipejazz:



Great or even stellar performance cannot always clean a tarnished reputation. There is a reason why Pete Rose is not in the Baseball Hall of Fame. If someone is unethical in one thing, you cannot trust them to be ethical in another, no matter what their performance proves. Likewise, a fellow named Wallace also worked on evolutionary theory, so the theory would have been "proven" (regardless of your straw argument supposing what if Darwin was on the take). Actually, Wallace's paper spurred Darwin to publish, showing that scientists do cite one another and peer-review their work for validity. Your analogy fails although you are making an interesting philosophical argument. What is your major?


MSc Geology. And yes, I am an ethical scientist. But the whole point of my argument is philosophical. You talk about Pete Rose's unethical behavior and the fact that he isn't in the Hall of Fame, but yet that behavior does not negate the fact that he is MLB's all-time hit leader. To negate that fact you would have to do the math and look at all the official scorer's books over his career and prove that someone mis-counted or gave him hits that weren't really hits (by a lot). No one can just say, no, he's not the all-time hit leader because he gambled on baseball and therefore was ethically suspect. Yes, he lost out on the accolades because of his behavior, but that doesn't refute the basic fact that he is MLB's hit leader. Love him or hate him, the truth is the truth.

I am not defending the stance of Salby nor am I denying that unethical behavior calls into question aspects of his scientific credibility, but the attack on his scientific stance (at least the one I commented on) was only based on ethical violations regarding grants and I questioned whether that is sufficient "proof" to negate his ideas, since the post suggested that this guy is obviously wrong because he is a scoundrel. I say no. Although anything that he comes up with will be colored by his behavior, it does not negate any supposed "science" he espouses. That refutation should be left to real science.
The next few days look hot and humid across the Southeast under the influence of a 594dm high off the coastline. It definitely feels like summer here.

Quoting 692. nrtiwlnvragn:

"Don't Fry Day" May 22, 2015: Excessive Heat and Sun Safety Guidance for 2015 Season


Excerpt:

Skin cancer, which can develop from overexposure to UV radiation,
is the most common form of cancer in the United States. Nearly
5 million people are treated for skin cancer each year in the
United States, at an estimated annual cost of $8.1 billion. Skin
cancer can be serious, expensive, and sometimes even deadly.
Fortunately, most skin cancers can be prevented. The first steps
are to know how to access the current heat and UV radiation
(UV Index) forecasts, and to know how to use them. Below are some
essential heat and UV resources.




As someone who has gone through multiple bouts with skin cancer (squamous cell) heed the warnings when you are young and protect yourself from excessive sun exposure!
yes indeed young ones protect yourself..i had one removed from my ear lobe...not fun believe me...sunscreen and hat now every time I go outside...





This could be fun.
Quoting 715. ricderr:

@EricBlake12 Eric Blake retweeted IRI
I love and hate this diagram -- showing models that have no skill and lots of skill together is kinda misleading.



eric should know about "misleading' he posted a graph to support his statement and another pro explained how he was using the wrong graph...hashtag....red faced
So you are here all day just to correct people or disagree with them? hashtag........STOP IT
NWS ILM

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING WITH THE UPPER JET IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH
DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 70. THE MARGINAL AREA OUTLINED BY SPC LINES UP
WITH BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...WITH ML CAPE CLOSE TO 1200 J/KG
AND BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL REACH AROUND 35 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. DCAPE WILL BE ABOVE 500 AS SW-WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND A
GREATER INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE MORE SUBSIDENCE WHICH
COULD ACT AGAINST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT....BUT THIS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAY SEE
A FEW LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL OR BRIEF TORNADO...AS WELL. EXPECT
THIS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF LOCAL CWA AND
MAINLY OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN THIS
AREA. POPS WILL TREND DOWN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA. ANY STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SWIFTLY OFF TO THE EAST IN A 25 TO 35 KT WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW.
12Z GFS......................its backkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk............................... ...................
Quoting 711. JohnDH:

From regression analyses of NOAA online sea level data for Key West it appears that the rate of sea level rise has dropped to essentially zero in the past 15 years. However, the local county and city planning processes continue to use a forecast of very rapid sea level rise. Has the rate of change in sea level rise slowed world wide recently?

Sea level rise accelerated over the past two decades, research finds

The Guardian, Karl Mathiesen, 11 May 2015

Sea Level rise sped up over the last two decades rather than slowing down as previously thought, according to new research.

Records from tide gauges and satellites have shown sea level rise slowing slightly over the past 20 years. But as the ice sheets of West Antarctica and Greenland shed ever more water into the ocean, climate models show it should be doing the opposite.

“The thing that was really puzzling us was that the last decade of sea level rise was marginally slower, ever so subtly slower, than the decade before it,” said Dr Christopher Watson from the University of Tasmania who led the new study.

Watson’s team found that the record of sea level rise during the early 1990s was too high. The error gave the illusion of the rate of sea level rise decreasing by 0.058 mm/year 2 between 1993 and 2014 , when in reality it accelerated by between 0.041 and 0.058 mm/year 2 . This brings the records into line with the modelling of the UN’s climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).


Full article

I don't know about Key West specifically. Though it's likely someone on here will have that info.
There might be some spillage over to the western Caribbean from this upcoming upward motion of the MJO that should spawn at least one tropical system in the EPAC, maybe more. Definitely some things to keep an eye on as we inch closer to the official start of the AHS.
So you are here all day just to correct people or disagree with them? hashtag........STOP IT


i'm here all day enjoying myself...hashtag...it wasn't personal
IF..this latest ghost storm of the GFS verifies later on, it crosses florida and up the east coast..in this 12z run..
should be naming this one "casper" because its a ghost storm...isn't it?.......................
In addition to what was being discussed earlier today, the Sabal minor palm might be the northernmost growing native palm in North America, as it's location is at apporximately 36.2 N and 75.5 W, do Washingtonias beat that latitude (St. George, Bermuda, for comparison, is at nearly 32 degrees north) on the west coast?
Quoting 703. Tropicsweatherpr:



In other words,there is no consensus on how strong El Nino will be at peak.Is really a very large spread.




Yep which should be expected this time of year anyway crap model period ends next month
But I would expect actual values to be lower than predicted

Quoting 716. GTstormChaserCaleb:

In the meantime the Subtropical Jet Stream is screaming.




Yes for now that is
Anyone post a link yet to a recent Tropical cyclone paper that was recently released?

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurr ent/full/nclimate2646.html

Unfortunately the bulk of it is behind a pay wall.

There is a brief description of most of it on Ars Technica.
Quoting 730. LargoFl:

IF..this latest ghost storm of the GFS verifies later on, it crosses florida and up the east coast..in this 12z run..
Quoting 731. LargoFl:

should be naming this one "casper" because its a ghost storm...isn't it?.......................


That's if this is truly a ghost storm
736. vis0
Patrap might want to use these lyrics (sung to Oscar Myers' bologna tune®)
 for those that repeat the same links in countering aGW's
 studies/findings/published & reviewed works. WITHOUT
adding either NEW published & reviewed work to support that aGW is not real

or explain with scientific detail why one thinks it (aGW or a-zGW) is not real


♪My baloney has a first name its c-o-n-f-u-s-e

♪My baloney has a second name its r-e-p-e-a-t

♪and that's why i tend to r-e-r-e-r-e-doo.



(Taz stop doing air drums to MY SHARONA (credit to weird Al J. parody using My Balonga)"


Isn't American English funny A kick boxing referee can say
"Now lets keep the fighting clean no hitting, Baloneys" (below knees)
as the TV station shows an Oscar Myer AD img insert
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hey doc. How about a new blog. I know the tropics are quiet. Maybe one on anything but GW.
Quoting 711. JohnDH:

From regression analyses of NOAA online sea level data for Key West it appears that the rate of sea level rise has dropped to essentially zero in the past 15 years. However, the local county and city planning processes continue to use a forecast of very rapid sea level rise. Has the rate of change in sea level rise slowed world wide recently?


That's strange, it most certainly has not dropped to zero. In fact, the rate has increased, which has been the trend world wide, a slight increase in the rate. Sea level rise isn't linear, the rate will increase.

Quoting 707. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hmm...$40,000!? I don't think you just drop off $40,000 at someone's house with something not fishy going on.
The whole story sounds fishy. I suspect the husband got into something way over his head and people that are a lot more cunning than him took advantage of it. Strange story.
Quoting 708. Xyrus2000:



And this is why scientists get really pissed off when it is found that someone in their area of research has committed ethics violations. Research builds on top of other research.


In my engineering world, if one person does a slipshod job on part of the massive job we're working on, EVERYTHING screeches to a halt while we double check the whole project to make sure the crummy work doesn't snowball through the whole thing.
Quoting 732. win1gamegiantsplease:

In addition to what was being discussed earlier today, the Sabal minor palm might be the northernmost growing native palm in North America, as it's location is at apporximately 36.2 N and 75.5 W, do Washingtonias beat that latitude (St. George, Bermuda, for comparison, is at nearly 32 degrees north) on the west coast?


Washington DC is at almost 39N. THere are no native palms here although I think palmettos and Sabal Palms could get through most winters in protected inner city locations.
Quoting 687. Patrap:

Say's the Guy from the State where Climate Change has been Banned to speak about...by the Guv'na.

Seems we skipped dat part of free speech over dere.

Why surely the ones fearful of "Gub'ment" missed dat un.

O da ironie's dey doos burns Hotsui'


hahaha, I started a post on that and gave it up. It was jeb, along with his trusty lieutenant marco rubio that began the disassembly of our environmental protections in Florida that the current crook scott is finishing. Did you know that even in Florida a month ago blue/green microcystic algae blooms were toxic and dangerous.. but no any more. Just last week the FDEP (Floridians Don't Expect Protections) decided an ongoing bloom in Okeechobee Lake was a "stagnant" water occurrence, and would go away if you moved it.. besides, salt water kills it so it is OKAY to endanger every living thing in our estuary and discharge it to lower the lake levels. All because it is to dirty to legally send it into Everglades National Park.. which is burning UP for lack of water. It was JEB who flat refused to enact FEDERALLY mandated water quality standards for 15 years that put us right where we are at... with what was just a few years ago the most biodiverse estuary in America dead, polluted and dangerously toxic... and the Florida Everglades is dying for lack of clean water.
744. vis0

Quoting 547. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I unbound thee the four winds of the four corners of the earth come forth
w/ or w/o fries?
Quoting 688. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'm all for creating new taxes if it serves for the better good of the people in the long run, like spending money on things that can curb carbon emissions. Also, I had really wanted to see what the bullet train along I-4 would have done, but our stupid republican governor voted it down, despite getting money from the federal government and having private companies pay for the cost of construction. It would have only cost us a penny out of our pockets to keep it in operation.
A penny here and a penny there, pretty soon all our money will go to the wasteful Govt. spenders. I pay good money to my accountants to keep as much money in my pocket a legally possible. No more taxes, just use the money they have wisely.
Quoting 723. Gearsts:

So you are here all day just to correct people or disagree with them? hashtag........STOP IT
Why?
747. vis0

Quoting 590. bwi:



I just spoke with the author of the study, and he was appalled that the deniers are somehow trying to contort his work into an anti-global warming narrative. He said he'd try to issue a statement, but didn't really know how. I feel bad for a serious scientist doing very interesting and useful research getting pulled into the fake skeptic denier nonsense. But then again, the financial stakes are so high for the fossil fuel industries and petro-states that I suppose there are no limits to how low they'll go to try to keep the people confused and the money flowing in their direction.
one can subimposed a design like aGW-reaL sewn within the font style that if one just copied and paste just parts, by a reader using poterization/threshold imagery techniques one can see that the words where

FIRST, not misquoted (if the "aGW-real" words are not repeatedly aligned, that means words are missing.

SECOND, cause those that want to mislead to actually read & type the pick & choose words they want to mislead with. (many that misled tend to not want to do so "much" work.

THIRD, one can trace the misleading copying as its hard to exactly copy the words you want on the exact pixel that someone else did so if the misleading copy if passed on you'll see those whom use it.

FOURTH, in doing this in a :hidden" sub-imposed way one does not turn away readers that judge by the cover so a person that opposes a certain way of thinking (be it pro or con) is not leaving a page efore they read the entire article therefore we get better informed people as even if you read an entire article that later you finds is not good science your better off for going through that experience,

BTW i tried to create TrueType fonts in doing this many years ago** and kind of succeeded but only could embed 1 letter per syllable, the latter was how i created the program to embed the hidden words by syllables.


THIS NOT THE REAL TT FONT (BTW it reads anti jiest...how can it be the other word if Grothar is the all mighty ...mouse, don't forget if you sing the Mighty Mouse® theme song bend at the knees as you sing it)


its a recreation in anioGif.  Those fonts are in my 2nd damaged HardDrive(HDr) ...so far i'm upto ~12 damaged HDr in ~20 yrs, remember i use to post to over 300 sites so those HDr cylinders where always running at high speed in using so many faonts/language packs.

***(1990s.."oh gawd is it 2015 already?" or "oh gawd it is 402PPM already?", the New Years Time square Ball drop should count down 3,2,1... 410PPM !!!!! ♫may all acquaintance be alive and still not developed an xtra eye...♫...muffled voice (voice muffled as under a mask with cooler breathable Oxygen, wishing all a happy new year) though pump powering that machine adds more co2...go figure...humans)


i had 2 more pluses and one negative, but forgot them...between wxu pg freezing (its my 30th error sent to Microsoft® in a week, do not forget kiddies if the pg creates an error send the report, its the only voice we have) AND a neighbor just knocked on my door offering me some chicken, caused my mind to go blank.

Quoting 653. Patrap:

Double Dutch "Derp"

O the sweet stench of sad Irony

Jeb Bush: It's 'Just Really Arrogant' To Say The Science Is Decided On Climate Change
Reuters
Posted: 05/21/2015 8:26 am EDT Updated: 1 hour ago



Like with Louisiana. Eventually the problem will solve itself.
Quoting 696. washingtonian115:

I've been taking a break for a while..got the horrible news and just couldn't believe it.I don't want to go into detail but a horrible crime was commited here in D.C to a family of 4 of which I knew the wife.Please just pray and thank you for taking the time to read this


Don't know why, but I had a feeling - either through the martial arts community or otherwise - someone I knew would be affected by this. Peace to you, and may their memories be for a blessing.
750. SMcQ
Shouldn't the caption to figure 3 read, "dry, dusty air flowing westward from the Sahara" instead of eastward?