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Earth Has Its 2nd Warmest February and Warmest Northern Hemisphere Winter

By: Jeff Masters 2:42 PM GMT on March 19, 2015

February 2015 was the second warmest February since global record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Wednesday. NASA also rated February 2015 as the 2nd warmest February on record, behind February 1998 (which was exceptionally warm due to the super-El Niño going on at the time.) February 2015's near-record warmth continues a trend of very warm months for the planet--2014 was Earth's warmest calendar year on record, the period spanning the Northern Hemisphere winter (December 2014 - February 2015) was the warmest such period on record, and the past twelve months have been the warmest 12-month period in recorded history. Global ocean temperatures during February 2015 were the 3rd warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in February 2015 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 37-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively.
 

Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2015, the 2nd warmest February for the globe since record keeping began in 1880.  Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
 
No billion-dollar weather disasters in February 2015
No billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during February 2015, according to the February 2015 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. February 2015 joins January 2015 and November 2014 as the only months since February 2012 to go without a billion-dollar weather disaster. However, damages from the series of winter storms and cold weather outbreaks that affected the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. during February killed 72 people and will likely add up to more than a billion dollars, Aon Benfield said.


Figure 2. The Alps of MIT: With more than 40 inches of snow blanketing the Boston area in a two week period in February 2015, snow removal efforts on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge created this five-story-high mountain of snow. It was the coldest month (any month) on record for some sites in the Northeast, including Syracuse, NY:  9.1°F; old record 12.1° (Feb. 1934); Buffalo, NY:  10.9°F; old record 11.6° (Feb. 1934); Rochester, NY:  12.2°F, old record 12.6°F (Feb. 1934); Bangor, ME:  6.1°F, old record 8.4°F (Jan. 1994); Worcester, MA:  14.2°F; old record 14.4°F (Feb. 1934); and Hartford, CT: 16.1°F; old record 16.5° (Feb. 1934). Blue Hill Observatory COOP site near Boston measured 83.6” of snowfall in February. This qualifies as the snowiest month on record for any site in Massachusetts records. The previous state record for such was 78.0” at Monroe in Feb. 1893. Image credit: Tom Gearty/MIT.
 
Deadliest disaster of February 2015: Afghanistan blizzards and avalanches
The deadliest disaster of February 2015 was the series of blizzards and avalanches that hit Afghanistan
February 24 - 28, killing at least 286. Some of the slides wiped out entire villages in the provinces of Panjshir, Badakhshan, and Bamyan, and 1,250 homes were destroyed.


Figure 3. Afghan survivors of an avalanche search their destroyed houses in the Abdullah Khil village of the Dara district of Panjshir province, north of Kabul on March 1, 2015. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani February 28 pledged to set up a relief fund for the victims of avalanches that claimed over 286 lives, and called for international help with the relief effort. Image credit: SHAH MARAI/AFP/Getty Images.

El Niño arrives in February 2015
NOAA issued an El Niño advisory in February 2015, heralding the official arrival of weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. Sea surface temperatures were 0.6°C above average in the so-called Niño3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for an El Niño event to be declared. One more such period (Jan – Mar) is needed for the current event to go into record books as an El Niño episode. NOAA is giving a 50 - 60% chance of El Niño lasting through summer, and subsurface water temperatures are well above average through most of the equatorial Pacific. I gave a detailed analysis of the possibility of El Niño intensifying later this year in Wednesday's blog post.
 
Arctic sea ice falls to 3rd lowest February extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during February 2015 was the 3rd lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). However, during the first half of March, Arctic sea ice extent fell to its lowest level on record, and set a record for the lowest winter maximum, as discussed by Bob Henson in a March 9 blog post.
 
Notable global heat and cold marks set for February 2015
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 49.2°C (120.6°F) at Roebourne Airport  (Australia), February 21
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -61.5°C (-78.7°F) at Dome Fuji (Valkyrjedomen), Antarctica, February 27

Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 43.0°C (109.4°F) at Navrogno, Ghana, February 12
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -60.9°C (-77.6°F) at Summit, Greenland, February 13

On February 21, Wittenoom, Australia recorded a minimum temperature of 35.1°C (95.2°F), which is a new world record of highest minimum temperature for the month of February.

Major stations that set new all-time heat or cold records in February 2015
Ottosdal (South Africa) max. 40.6°C, February 9
Llay Llay (Chile) max. 40.2°C, February 12
Lynchburg (Pennsylvania, USA) min. -23.9°C, February 20
Lamap Malekula (Vanuatu) max. 34.8 °C, February 24

New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
Ghana tied the national record of highest temperature with 43.0°C (109.4°F) at Navrongo on February 12.
Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.5°C (95.9°F) on January 19 at Futuna Airport.
Samoa tied its national heat record with 36.5°C (97.7°F) on January 20 at Asau. Previously, the record was set at the same location in December 1977.

A big thanks goes to Maximiliano Herrera for providing the global heat and cold records. He maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

The Climate Change Elevator Pitch
Climate change videographer Peter Sinclair, whom I've done a number of interviews with, interviewed scientists in San Francisco in December 2014 at the annual American Geophysical Union's annual meeting. Climate scientist John Cook, who asked the actual questions during the interviews, had the brilliant idea to ask each of them one last question:

“Ok, you’re getting on an elevator with someone, and they say, “So you’re a climate scientist--what’s all this about climate change and global warming? You’ve got 10 floors. Go.”

The Elevator Pitch series has been pretty well received. Al Gore’s Climate Reality group uploaded some of these to their facebook page where glaciologist Eric Rignot's piece got more than a quarter million views. Here are the Climate Change Elevator Pitches that have been released so far:

NASA glaciologist Eric Rignot
Penn State glacier expert Richard Alley
Texas Tech's Katherine Hayhoe
Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution for Science
Simon Donner, University of British Columbia

Another interesting collection of short videos by climate scientists has just been released by morethanscientists.org. Featured are hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel, Texas Tech's Katherine Hayhoe, and more than 100 others. The videos offer a unique glimpse into the real life stories, personal views and feelings of the experts on climate change, emphasizing not the science itself, but why it matters--and what it will mean for our children and grandchildren. "I'm very excited about this new campaign. Too few people have seen the lighter and more personal side of climate scientists," said climate scientist Michael E. Mann, director of Penn State's Earth System Science Center and advisory board member of More Than Scientists. "Many of us are science nerds. But we are ordinary people too, and like anyone else, we care about our children and grandchildren, and the health of the world we leave behind for them. So I'm very excited about this new campaign and the promise it holds for communicating that message to the public."

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Been a hot March here in FL Doc! This will likely go down as the Top 5 warmest March on record in Orlando.

Orlando
Thanks Doc.
With El-Nino beginning to intensify it appears we will shake this La-Nina like pattern and tradition to a more active southern jet as we end March and get into April. 0.01 so far for March in Longwood but we have seen near 9" for the year which eventhough as dry as it has been recently we are still in a surplus for the year.

Thanks for the big picture overview today Dr. Ice can ebb and flow in any given season in the Arctic regions, and we can have a bitter cold outbreak in parts of the US this season, while unseasonably warm in the Pacific NW, but you have to look at the entire global picture (including cold events and warm events) and average out the trend. The most important sentence, in my eyes anyway, from the Post above is the following:

2014 was Earth's warmest calendar year on record
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/nino/tpaavgrai n.png


hey matt.....one of the things i noticed last year...was how much information there is out there for florida as relating to el nino....california also has a ton of information about how their climate changes with el nino....el paso?.....we only know how to spell el nino....ta da da boom!
Looks like the MJO will miss the Indian Ocean and jump back into the Pacific later in March fueling more westerly wind burst or should I say sustain them for the next few weeks.

Doc, you are way too busy; a lot to read! :-) - Thank you (especially for mentioning the avalanche disaster in Afghanistan).

Something is always going on, even when you think current weather is calm and nice. There is a smog alarm for western Europe:


Solar eclipse could be blocked out by French smog
Unusually high air pollution is likely to make urban areas such as London more misty than usual and could obscure the much anticipated eclipse.
The Telegraph, By Sarah Knapton, Science Editor, 11:24AM GMT 19 Mar 2015
The solar eclipse could be blocked out by a combination of low cloud and air pollution crossing the English Channel from France, experts have warned.
Much of the UK is expected to be blanketed in cloud when the Moon passes in front of the Sun at around 8.30am on Friday morning.
But unusually high air pollution is likely to make urban areas such as London more misty than usual, which could also obscure the rare astronomical phenomenon.
Leon Brown, Chief Meteorologist, The Weather Channel, said the first 30 minutes of the eclipse may be blocked out by cloud and fog: "London will be quite misty with low cloud too. ...



Paris yesterday (Photograph: Houpline Renard/SIPA/REX/Houpline Renard/SIPA/REX) from:
Eiffel Tower shrouded in smog as Paris pollution spikes
Paris and much of northern France suffers spike in pollution, leading authorities to introduce measures including a 20kph speed limit on motorways.
AFP/The Guardian, Wednesday 18 March 2015 14.06 GMT
Quoting 3. StormTrackerScott:

With El-Nino beginning to intensify it appears we will shake this La-Nina like pattern and tradition to a more active southern jet as we end March and get into April. 0.01 so far for March in Longwood but we have seen near 9" for the year which eventhough as dry as it has been recently we are still in a surplus for the year.




Scott, I don't think I've ever seen you post a run of this graphic without it showing deep blue across all of FL. Could it possibly have a bias? Just seems odd that it consistently seems to always drown FL with rain.
Quoting 3. StormTrackerScott:

With El-Nino beginning to intensify it appears we will shake this La-Nina like pattern and tradition to a more active southern jet as we end March and get into April. 0.01 so far for March in Longwood but we have seen near 9" for the year which eventhough as dry as it has been recently we are still in a surplus for the year.


What La Nina pattern are you talking about?
Quoting 10. hydrus:




I posted this scenario yesterday and then Eric Blake mentioned as well. It will be interesting to see if the MJO does indeed miss the Indian Ocean. Could have more implications for El-Nino down the road with possibly sustaining these westerly winds across the equatorial Pacific. This situation also impacts the Eastern US as well with possibly more cold outbreaks for the East as we move into April.
Quoting 11. NativeSun:

What La Nina pattern are you talking about?


The sub tropical jet has gone MIA this month and the SE Ridge has been very strong for March across FL which is why we have had near summer like temps and basically no rain. Pattern however could change next week. Well see!
Quoting 6. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like the MJO will miss the Indian Ocean and jump back into the Pacific later in March fueling more westerly wind burst or should I say sustain them for the next few weeks.


I hope we don't get this super duper Nino you a wishing for, as they usually cause a lot of death and destruction around the world. If a moderate to strong Nino would help improve the upcoming 2016 and beyond hurricane seasons then I would be glad to see what happens in this Nino event this summer, but that is still a ways away and nobody and I mean nobody knows how strong this event will be, or even if we will have a Nino this summer.
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:



The sub tropical jet has gone MIA this month and the SE Ridge has been very strong for March across FL which is why we have had near summer like temps and basically no rain. Pattern however could change next week. Well see!
Scott, we have had very strong ridges in the past, and the temps are no where near summer like.
Quoting 14. NativeSun:

I hope we don't get this super duper Nino you a wishing for, as they usually cause a lot of death and destruction around the world. If a moderate to strong Nino would help improve the upcoming 2016 and beyond hurricane seasons then I would be glad to see what happens in this Nino event this summer, but that is still a ways away and nobody and I mean nobody knows how strong this event will be, or even if we will have a Nino this summer.


If you pay attention to my post that is what I have been saying a moderate to strong El-Nino. I don't think this event will top the 1997 event but this event could be the strongest since 1997 with Nino 3.4 at or near 1.8C.
Love the elevator pitch idea!
Quoting 15. NativeSun:

Scott, we have had very strong ridges in the past, and the temps are no where near summer like.


Question makes no sense so please explain with more detail what you are referring too.
Gulf has some really high sea surface anomalies currently. I suspect these values will drop down some next week as temps cool closer to average.

Quoting 1. StormTrackerScott:

Been a hot March here in FL Doc! This will likely go down as the Top 5 warmest March on record in Orlando.

Orlando



Meanwhile the DC cherry blossoms are on track for a very very late opening.. Currently expected April 10-14, Mean is April 4, earliest March 15, 1990 and latest April 18, 1958.

I think we are on track for breaking the late record.

Coldest Feb and first half of March since 1978. Second half of March 1978 was quite warm. Ain't in the cards for March 2015!
Quoting 9. CybrTeddy:




Thankfully Nathan is making landfall in a low populated area. Shouldn't cause any loss of life hopefully.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #57
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY FOUR (17U)
12:59 AM EST March 20 2015
=====================================

At 1:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Four located at 14.7S 145.6E or 35 kilometers northeast of Cape Flattery and 90 kilometers north northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the far northeast Queensland coast. The system has intensified to category 4, and is expected to cross at this intensity between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery during this morning.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Nathan, with maximum wind gusts forecast to 250 km/h, is expected to make landfall between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery early this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 km/h extend out to about 90 kilometers from the center of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation this morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h extend out to approximately 130 kilometers from the center of the cyclone, and are now developing about coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation. These winds are expected to extend inland areas, including Laura and Palmerville, and northwards to Lockhart River during this morning.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cooktown are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities. Elsewhere in the warning zone, water levels on the high tide could just exceed the highest tide of the year today, with large waves possibly producing minor flooding along the foreshore.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about the coast between Coen and Cape Tribulation this morning, extending west through inland parts with the passage of Tropical Cyclone Nathan throughout today.

Separate Severe Weather Warnings are current; one for abnormally high tides on the coast from Cape Tribulation to Innisfail, and another for heavy rainfall and locally damaging wind gusts about the Peninsula and Gulf Country districts between Weipa and Kowanyama

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for areas from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation, extending inland to areas including Laura and Palmerville
Cyclone Nathan is approaching shore as the equivalent of an upper-end Category 3 hurricane.

This could be me...


...But I'm still in Florida :)
Quoting Jeff Masters:



Indeed. JAXA Arctic sea ice extent has spent every day of March in 1st place for the lowest on record, and by a substantial margin. And Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area is currently about 800,000 square kilometers lower than it was on the same day in 2012, the year of the subsequent record melt-out. That's an area the size of California and Montana combined.
The warm sunny weather across Florida combined with the cold nasty weather up north has been great for the Spring Break related businesses.

Local merchants at the beach are doing very well this season (double what they usually see - as reported by a local new story I read the other day).
Under a WWA for 3-6"....

I'm tired of this white crap. I'm ready for Spring now. I'll be ready for more snow Next November. Come on Mother Nature
And this from yesterday:

This is climate skeptics' top argument about Antarctica — and why it’s wrong

...However, as climate skeptics are quick to note, there's something odd and seemingly paradoxical about Antarctica's ice. Even as oceanfront glaciers in key areas seem to be retreating, potentially awakening the vast ice sheets behind them, Antarctic sea ice – ice floating atop the oceans surrounding the continent — has actually been increasing. And this has often been cited as a supposed anomaly in the global warming story... So, is a rise in Antarctic sea ice any reason to discount the latest news about east Antarctica, or climate concerns more broadly? The answer is no.

---

"We can explain sea ice trends in the Antarctic rather well if we take into account the full range of changes in winds that have occurred," writes Steig. Critically, that includes stronger winds blowing from the west around the region (wonk term: "circumpolar westerlies") that, Steig says, actually seem to be tied to more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and less ozone in the stratosphere -- factors that humans are behind.

"Far from discounting climate change in the Southern Hemisphere, the apparent paradox of Antarctic sea ice is telling us that it is real and that we are contributing to it," adds Guy Williams, an Antarctic expert at the University of Tasmania.
Quoting 23. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cyclone Nathan is approaching shore as the equivalent of an upper-end Category 3 hurricane.




It has a satellite appearance of a low end 2. I doubt we see any 100 knot reports or higher with this, though it is making landfall where population is minimal.

Nathan has re-organized well, it looked as if it's eye wall collapsed yesterday morning. How will it fair has it crosses the flat moist peninsula of northeastern Australia? The Gulf of Carpentaria is MUCH warmer than the waters Nathan is churning upon now. What does the upper air environment look like as it re-emerges? It does not have to jog too much north of it's forecasted track where it transverses more and more warm waters...

Also of note with Global SST and anomalies, specifically with Alaska's Pacific Coast southeast and southward down the California coastline. Those are some ridiculous SST for those areas and the anomalies continue to increase over the last week.

There is an area of 1 to 3 degree Celsius anomalies over an area equivalent to the size of the North American Continent. Gulf of Mexico is also heating up at similar rates.

Current anomaly vs. 1981-2010 baseline.


7 day change


Image credit: Tropical Tidbits
Quoting 28. Neapolitan:

And this from yesterday:

This is climate skeptics' top argument about Antarctica — and why it’s wrong

...However, as climate skeptics are quick to note, there's something odd and seemingly paradoxical about Antarctica's ice. Even as oceanfront glaciers in key areas seem to be retreating, potentially awakening the vast ice sheets behind them, Antarctic sea ice – ice floating atop the oceans surrounding the continent — has actually been increasing. And this has often been cited as a supposed anomaly in the global warming story... So, is a rise in Antarctic sea ice any reason to discount the latest news about east Antarctica, or climate concerns more broadly? The answer is no.

---

"We can explain sea ice trends in the Antarctic rather well if we take into account the full range of changes in winds that have occurred," writes Steig. Critically, that includes stronger winds blowing from the west around the region (wonk term: "circumpolar westerlies") that, Steig says, actually seem to be tied to more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and less ozone in the stratosphere -- factors that humans are behind.

"Far from discounting climate change in the Southern Hemisphere, the apparent paradox of Antarctic sea ice is telling us that it is real and that we are contributing to it," adds Guy Williams, an Antarctic expert at the University of Tasmania.


I don't follow how an increase in ice is evidence of climate change/global warming.
Quoting 31. tampabaymatt:



I don't follow how an increase in ice is evidence of climate change/global warming.


Well as glaciers melt faster and faster......more and more sea ice....
Interesting that the sea around Vanuatu was at its record warmest.
Quoting 29. ILwthrfan:



It has a satellite appearance of a low end 2. I doubt we see any 100 knot reports or higher with this, though it is making landfall where population is minimal.

Nathan has re-organized well, it looked as if it's eye wall collapsed yesterday morning. How will it fair has it crosses the flat moist peninsula of northeastern Australia? The Gulf of Carpentaria is MUCH warmer than the waters Nathan is churning upon now. What does the upper air environment look like as it re-emerges? It does not have to jog too much north of it's forecasted track where it transverses more and more warm waters...



The portion of land Nathan will be passing over is relatively flat, so I only expect steady weakening before it emerges into the Gulf--it should retain cyclone status. Wind shear should be light once the storm is back over water, favoring some intensification; it will only have about a 36hr window for redevelopment, however.
Quoting 31. tampabaymatt:



I don't follow how an increase in ice is evidence of climate change/global warming.


I wouldn't say that it is evidence of global warming, but if salinity is reduced by melting ice or increased precipitation, the sea will freeze more easily.
Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:



I posted this scenario yesterday and then Eric Blake mentioned as well. It will be interesting to see if the MJO does indeed miss the Indian Ocean. Could have more implications for El-Nino down the road with possibly sustaining these westerly winds across the equatorial Pacific. This situation also impacts the Eastern US as well with possibly more cold outbreaks for the East as we move into April.
If this happens , and I believe it will, the U.S. is in for a late season winter event....Notice the splitting of the polar vort...


Now...



213 hours...

Remember it's Arctic and Antarctic.

You've got to get that correct for starters. Also, it is Dr. Masters' Blog so some level of respect would be expected.
Quoting 31. tampabaymatt:



I don't follow how an increase in ice is evidence of climate change/global warming.



Freshening of the water due to melting glacial ice (from warming air and oceans) coupled with changes in wind patterns (from more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and less ozone in the stratosphere, both human caused) which are now blowing ice away from land allowing more ice to form in the open water left behind. Gains in Antarctic Sea Ice have not been uniform, instead areas have lost ice and others have gained ice, those gains have been found in the areas where wind patterns allow for more polynas -open water surrounded by ice- to form, those open areas then refreeze over creating an increase in ice area and extent, but little change to volume as the new sea ice is extremely thin and unlike the Arctic, mostly melts out during the summer.
Yawn...scottsvb must have been to the Arctic and Antarctica since it seems he knows more than anyone on here.

sike...remember these people are just trying to get a reaction out of you. They are attention seekers. Just ignore them and they will go away. If this were my blog I would delete comments like that to protect the credibility and integrity of my blog and wouldn't want dishonest information posted on my blog.

A picture tells a thousand words.


Arctic Sea Ice in July 2009
Quoting 34. scottsvb:

More "FALSE DATA" Masters and the liberal NOAA Director is spilling out. Artic and Antartic ice sheet has continued to grow year to year...and that's all that really matters. Real Data is ocean temps near the poles and the currents of the oceans... Nasa and non-liberal sites.


We'll be sure to let the melting glaciers, changes in growing zones, increasing ocean PH, changes in migrating bird patterns, sea level, animal extinctions, vegetation, and every single scientific organization in the world know your concerns. While based purely in nonsensical, ideological blathering without any evidence to support your claim, we thank you for your valuable input to the discussion. Have a good Thursday.
and of course lets not forget about Antarctic land ice...
This just in, scientific data is liberal. A survey has discovered global temperatures over the land and ocean self identify as "somewhat" or "very" liberal with 78% of above average ocean temperatures and 56% of above average land temperatures noting they voted for Obama. Stay tuned to the next release of my new findings entitled, "Science? Why accept it when we can ignore it?"
It sure didn't feel warmer here in Vermont, and my loved ones in Boston would be hard pressed to fear global warming this season. But no one here is holding up a snowball to suggest global warming doesn't exist. I am grateful for the graphic, which really shows how we in the Northeast kind of got lucky.
Most concerning is the depth of that sea ice that is melting which would be allowing for the volume of water to increase hence leading to a rise in sea levels, especially if sea ice can't recover for the loss. If you think of it in a business way then you'll probably know what I mean.
Quoting 39. Naga5000:




Freshening of the water due to melting glacial ice (from warming air and oceans) coupled with changes in wind patterns (from more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and less ozone in the stratosphere, both human caused) which are now blowing ice away from land allowing more ice to form in the open water left behind. Gains in Antarctic Sea Ice have not been uniform, instead areas have lost ice and others have gained ice, those gains have been found in the areas where wind patterns allow for more polynas -open water surrounded by ice- to form, those open areas then refreeze over creating an increase in ice area and extent, but little change to volume as the new sea ice is extremely thin and unlike the Arctic, mostly melts out during the summer.


Thanks for the explanation.
The Most Terrifying Papers I Read Last Year

January 16, 2015 by climatesight
An ice sheet forms when snow falls on land, compacts into ice, and forms a system of interconnected glaciers which gradually flow downhill like play-dough. In Antarctica, it is so cold that the ice flows right into the ocean before it melts, sometimes hundreds of kilometres from the coast. These giant slabs of ice, floating on the ocean while still attached to the continent, are called ice shelves.

For an ice sheet to have constant size, the mass of ice added from snowfall must equal the mass lost due to melting and calving (when icebergs break off). Since this ice loss mainly occurs at the edges, the rate of ice loss will depend on how fast glaciers can flow towards the edges.

Ice shelves slow down this flow. They hold back the glaciers behind them in what is known as the “buttressing effect”. If the ice shelves were smaller, the glaciers would flow much faster towards the ocean, melting and calving more ice than snowfall inland could replace. This situation is called a “negative mass balance”, which leads directly to global sea level rise.



Ice shelves are perhaps the most important part of the Antarctic ice sheet for its overall stability. Unfortunately, they are also the part of the ice sheet most at risk. This is because they are the only bits touching the ocean. And the Antarctic ice sheet is not directly threatened by a warming atmosphere – it is threatened by a warming ocean.

The atmosphere would have to warm outrageously in order to melt the Antarctic ice sheet from the top down. Snowfall tends to be heaviest when temperatures are just below 0°C, but temperatures at the South Pole rarely go above -20°C, even in the summer. So atmospheric warming will likely lead to a slight increase in snowfall over Antarctica, adding to the mass of the ice sheet. Unfortunately, the ocean is warming at the same time. And a slightly warmer ocean will be very good at melting Antarctica from the bottom up.

This is partly because ice melts faster in water than it does in air, even if the air and the water are the same temperature. But the ocean-induced melting will be exacerbated by some unlucky topography: over 40% of the Antarctic ice sheet (by area) rests on bedrock that is below sea level.


Elevation of the bedrock underlying Antarctica. All of the blue regions are below sea level. (Figure 9 of Fretwell et al.)

This means that ocean water can melt its way in and get right under the ice, and gravity won’t stop it. The grounding lines, where the ice sheet detaches from the bedrock and floats on the ocean as an ice shelf, will retreat. Essentially, a warming ocean will turn more of the Antarctic ice sheet into ice shelves, which the ocean will then melt from the bottom up.

This situation is especially risky on a retrograde bed, where bedrock gets deeper below sea level as you go inland – like a giant, gently sloping bowl. Retrograde beds occur because of isostatic loading (the weight of an ice sheet pushes the crust down, making the tectonic plate sit lower in the mantle) as well as glacial erosion (the ice sheet scrapes away the surface bedrock over time). Ice sheets resting on retrograde beds are inherently unstable, because once the grounding lines reach the edge of the “bowl”, they will eventually retreat all the way to the bottom of the “bowl” even if the ocean water intruding beneath the ice doesn’t get any warmer. This instability occurs because the melting point temperature of water decreases as you go deeper in the ocean, where pressures are higher. In other words, the deeper the ice is in the ocean, the easier it is to melt it. Equivalently, the deeper a grounding line is in the ocean, the easier it is to make it retreat. In a retrograde bed, retreating grounding lines get deeper, so they retreat more easily, which makes them even deeper, and they retreat even more easily, and this goes on and on even if the ocean stops warming.


Diagram of an ice shelf on a retrograde bed (“Continental shelf”)

Which brings us to Terrifying Paper #1, by Rignot et al. A decent chunk of West Antarctica, called the Amundsen Sea Sector, is melting particularly quickly. The grounding lines of ice shelves in this region have been rapidly retreating (several kilometres per year), as this paper shows using satellite data. Unfortunately, the Amundsen Sea Sector sits on a retrograde bed, and the grounding lines have now gone past the edge of it. This retrograde bed is so huge that the amount of ice sheet it underpins would cause 1.2 metres of global sea level rise. We’re now committed to losing that ice eventually, even if the ocean stopped warming tomorrow. “Upstream of the 2011 grounding line positions,” Rignot et al., write, “we find no major bed obstacle that would prevent the glaciers from further retreat and draw down the entire basin.”

They look at each source glacier in turn, and it’s pretty bleak:

Pine Island Glacier: “A region where the bed elevation is smoothly decreasing inland, with no major hill to prevent further retreat.”
Smith/Kohler Glaciers: “Favorable to more vigorous ice shelf melt even if the ocean temperature does not change with time.”
Thwaites Glacier: “Everywhere along the grounding line, the retreat proceeds along clear pathways of retrograde bed.”
Only one small glacier, Haynes Glacier, is not necessarily doomed, since there are mountains in the way that cut off the retrograde bed.

From satellite data, you can already see the ice sheet speeding up its flow towards the coast, due to the loss of buttressing as the ice shelves thin: “Ice flow changes are detected hundreds of kilometers inland, to the flanks of the topographic divides, demonstrating that coastal perturbations are felt far inland and propagate rapidly.”

It will probably take a few centuries for the Amundsen Sector to fully disintegrate. But that 1.2 metres of global sea level rise is coming eventually, on top of what we’ve already seen from other glaciers and thermal expansion, and there’s nothing we can do to stop it (short of geoengineering). We’re going to lose a lot of coastal cities because of this glacier system alone.

Terrifying Paper #2, by Mengel & Levermann, examines the Wilkes Basin Sector of East Antarctica. This region contains enough ice to raise global sea level by 3 to 4 metres. Unlike the Amundsen Sector, we aren’t yet committed to losing this ice, but it wouldn’t be too hard to reach that point. The Wilkes Basin glaciers rest on a system of deep troughs in the bedrock. The troughs are currently full of ice, but if seawater got in there, it would melt all the way along the troughs without needing any further ocean warming – like a very bad retrograde bed situation. The entire Wilkes Basin would change from ice sheet to ice shelf, bringing along that 3-4 metres of global sea level rise.

It turns out that the only thing stopping seawater getting in the troughs is a very small bit of ice, equivalent to only 8 centimetres of global sea level rise, which Mengel & Levermann nickname the “ice plug”. As long as the ice plug is there, this sector of the ice sheet is stable; but take the ice plug away, and the whole thing will eventually fall apart even if the ocean stops warming. Simulations from an ice sheet model suggest it would take at least 200 years of increased ocean temperature to melt this ice plug, depending on how much warmer the ocean got. 200 years sounds like a long time for us to find a solution to climate change, but it actually takes much longer than that for the ocean to cool back down after it’s been warmed up.

This might sound like all bad news. And you’re right, it is. But it can always get worse. That means we can always stop it from getting worse. That’s not necessarily good news, but at least it’s empowering. The sea level rise we’re already committed to, whether it’s 1 or 2 or 5 metres, will be awful. But it’s much better than 58 metres, which is what we would get if the entire Antarctic ice sheet melted. Climate change is not an all-or-nothing situation; it falls on a spectrum. We will have to deal with some amount of climate change no matter what. The question of “how much” is for us to decide.

Link

About
Kaitlin Alexander is a PhD student in climate science at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia. She became interested in climate science as a teenager on the Canadian Prairies, and increasingly began to notice the discrepancies between scientific and public knowledge on climate change. She started writing this blog at age sixteen to help address this gap in public understanding, and it slowly evolved into a record of her research as a young climate scientist.
I happened to watch a TV show last night (PBS show from 2012) on the world's deadliest and/or most active volcanos and the first stop/first clip was a space to earth, Google type fly-down, to a "remote" group of islands in the Pacific with the bull-eye stopping over the crater; an island in Vanuatu. Then the geo-scientist scaling down the rim of the ever present bubbling lava cauldron in this particular island in the chain.

Tropical storms are not the only thing that the folks in Vanuatu apparently have to worry about and I imagine that the crew below evacuated before Pam:

February 22, 2015: A team on an expedition to the volatile Marum Crater in Vanuatu flew drones over its centre to gain footage for scientific study.

Camera-mounted drones have captured a furious active volcano unleashing hell in Vanuatu.

Explorer Sam Cossman equipped the drones with a GroPro to film the spectacular yet dangerous Marum Crater on the Vanuatuan island of Ambyrm, in footage released by National Geographic on Friday.

Mr Cossman piloted the drones over the 12km-wide cauldron-shaped volcano while confronting sulphuric dioxide, toxic gases and boiling lava.

As fortunate as he was to capture the footage, Mr Cossman said the drones succumbed to the hellish conditions.

"The physiological effects of being inside the volcano are significant, in that you have every force down there trying to kill you," Mr Cossman said.

"It's a glimpse into the centre of the earth, it's like listening to the heartbeat of the planet."

Post #47
Excellent article GTstormChaserCaleb.
Quoting 34. scottsvb:

Regarding your accusation of 'false data' - please provide documentation. That's a pretty serious accuation, and flat out challenges the integrity of Dr. Masters and NOAA.

Regarding 'non-liberal sites' - the problem is, if you are looking for 'non-liberal sites' to get your data, YOU are looking to have 'science' presented to you from an ideological viewpoint. Thing is, science does not know or care one whit about your, or anybody else's, political ideology. Simply because the science isn't to your liking, and is presented factually on this site as well as by NOAA, does not make it 'liberal'. It just IS.
co2now.org

400.26 ppm CO2 achieved

Congrats Earth dweller's !
Cape Flattery Australia seems to have taken the eye wall based on radar.
Winds peaked at 65 knots gusting to 87 knots (100 mph).
Link

Link
Quoting 53. Sfloridacat5:

Cape Flattery Australia seems to have taken the eye wall based on radar.
Winds 65 knots gusting to 85 knots.

Link


Looks like Nathan dipped a bit south upon landfall there too.
Quoting 50. ILwthrfan:

Post #47
Excellent article GTstormChaserCaleb.
Thank You ILwthrfan. I just did a GOOGLE search of sea level rise by ice melting from the bottom up and that was the first link that came up. I thought it was a really good explanation too.
Quoting 49. TropicalAnalystwx13:





Baby Cyclone Nathan finally became "teenage cyclone".
Quoting 50. ILwthrfan:

Post #47
Excellent article GTstormChaserCaleb.

Totally agree! I bookmarked it. It clearly explains the worries about 'rapid melt' in both West and East Antarctica - better than I've read elsewhere. The writer, Kaitlin Alexander, looks to have a great future ahead if she can communicate science this well to the general public.
Quoting 56. Patrap:
Florida Isn't Alone: North Carolina, Pennsylvania Ban 'Climate Change' Too
By Carolyn Williams
Published Mar 11 2015 02:57 PM EDT
weather.com


Gotta love those legislative priorities. Are they going to call it "That Which Shall Not Be Named"?
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Baby Cyclone Nathan finally became "teenage cyclone".


Max gust at Cape Flattery was 87 knots (100 mph). I went back and adjusted my previous comment.
Regardless of political affiliations and the "outdated" name calling I mentioned a few weeks ago (commie, liberal, conservative, etc) to gain points or scare people, the hope, in science, is that the actual data will not be skewed or cherry-picked to support any particular political position; once your political or personal views are interjected, it essentially ceases to be science. One of the issues in this debate (politicians and climate change data) is that it is going to cost a lot of money to take prospective mitigation measures against climate change issues and most politicians are only thinking about their next election cycle (short-term) and don't want to rock the boat (and supporter's checks) and look to the longer. Unfortunately, modern day politics tends to be "immediate" crisis driven, and reactionary after the fact, rather than proactive. Here is a good summary (snippet) of the basic issues on the table, which apply across the board to the current discussion, from 2012 (with the link to the full story):

http://abcnews.go.com/US/north-carolina-bans-late st-science-rising-sea-level/story?id=16913782
Aug. 2, 2012By ALON HARISH via 20/20A new law in North Carolina will ban the state from basing coastal policies on the latest scientific predictions of how much the sea level will rise, prompting environmentalists to accuse the state of disrespecting climate science.The law has put the state in the spotlight for what critics have called nearsightedness and climate change denial, but its proponents said the state needed to put a moratorium on predictions of sea level rise until scientific techniques improve.The law was drafted in response to an estimate by the state's Coastal Resources Commission (CRC) that the sea level will rise by 39 inches in the next century, prompting fears of costlier home insurance and accusations of anti-development alarmism among residents and developers in the state's coastal Outer Banks region.Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue had until Thursday to act on the bill known as House Bill 819, but she decided to let it become law by doing nothing.The bill's passage in June triggered nationwide scorn by those who argued that the state was deliberately blinding itself to the effects of climate change. In a segment on the "Colbert Report," comedian Stephen Colbert mocked North Carolina lawmakers' efforts as an attempt to outlaw science."If your science gives you a result you don't like, pass a law saying the result is illegal. Problem solved," he joked.The law, which began as a routine regulation on development permits but quickly grew controversial after the sea-level provision was added, restricts all sea-level predictions used to guide state policies for the next four years to those based on "historical data."Tom Thompson, president of NC-20, a coastal development group and a key supporter of the law, said the science used to make the 39-inch prediction was flawed, and added that the resources commission failed to consider the economic consequences of preparing the coast for a one-meter rise in sea level, under which up to 2,000 square miles would be threatened. A projection map showing land along the coast underwater would place the permits of many planned development projects in jeopardy. Numerous new flood zone areas would have to be drawn, new waste treatment plants would have to be built, and roads would have to be elevated. The endeavor would cost the state hundreds of millions of dollars, Thompson said."I don't want to say they're being dishonest, but they're pulling data out of their hip pocket that ain't working," he said of the commission panel that issued the prediction, the middle in a range of three predictions.Thompson, who denies global warming, said the prediction was based on measurements at a point on the North Carolina coast that is unrepresentative of the rest of the coast. But the costs Thompson decries as wasteful are to the law's opponents a necessary pill the state must swallow if it is going to face up to the challenge of protecting the coast from the effects of climate change.State Rep. Deborah Ross, a forceful critic of the bill, compared it to burying one's "head in the sand.""I go to the doctor every year. If I'm not fine, I'd rather know now than in four years," said Ross, a Democrat who represents inland Greensboro, N.C., but owns property on the coast. "This is like going to the doctor and saying you're not going to get a test on a problem."Its supporters counter that the law does not force the state to close its eyes to reality, but rather to base policy on more than a single model that produced what they believe are extreme results.



Nature has trolled ultimately hard this week.Tricking people into thinking it's spring and then Wham! More snow Friday and next week.I can't stop nature from doing what it's going to do however I'm glad it's not ice...
Quoting 57. wxgeek723:



If we make it illegal, then it goes away right?


Just like drugs. :P
Quoting 28. Neapolitan:

And this from yesterday:

This is climate skeptics' top argument about Antarctica — and why it’s wrong

...However, as climate skeptics are quick to note, there's something odd and seemingly paradoxical about Antarctica's ice. Even as oceanfront glaciers in key areas seem to be retreating, potentially awakening the vast ice sheets behind them, Antarctic sea ice – ice floating atop the oceans surrounding the continent — has actually been increasing. And this has often been cited as a supposed anomaly in the global warming story... So, is a rise in Antarctic sea ice any reason to discount the latest news about east Antarctica, or climate concerns more broadly? The answer is no.

---

"We can explain sea ice trends in the Antarctic rather well if we take into account the full range of changes in winds that have occurred," writes Steig. Critically, that includes stronger winds blowing from the west around the region (wonk term: "circumpolar westerlies") that, Steig says, actually seem to be tied to more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and less ozone in the stratosphere -- factors that humans are behind.

"Far from discounting climate change in the Southern Hemisphere, the apparent paradox of Antarctic sea ice is telling us that it is real and that we are contributing to it," adds Guy Williams, an Antarctic expert at the University of Tasmania.

The Post article references and links to a blog post by glaciologist Eric Steig on RealClimate. At the bottom of that blog, it links to a more in-depth version of the blog post by Steig, on Climate Change National Forum. I've posted the link several times, as it really is a great summary of what's going on with Antarctic sea ice:

Making sense of Antarctic sea ice changes
Quoting 37. hydrus:

If this happens , and I believe it will, the U.S. is in for a late season winter event....Notice the splitting of the polar vort...


Now...



213 hours...




Canadian model brings snow to North Texas at day 10. Basically its safe to say Tornado Alley is going to remain closed for business for awhile and many across the US just might lose it if it gets as cold as some of these models indicate across the Midwest & Eastern US later next week.

As a result of this record MJO and Cyclone Pam the Midwest & Eastern US is in for a serious amount of cold air coming down the pike.

Canadian


GFS
Quoting 59. tampabaymatt:



Rick Scott, the governor of FL, is a criminal. I dare anyone to read his Wikipedia page and not come away disgusted that he is a public official. If the Democrats could have found anyone to run against him that wasn't a total dope, he would have never won re-election.


Well, you guys elected him...twice.
Quoting 69. wxgeek723:



Well, you guys elected him...twice.


He didn't receive a majority of the votes either time he was elected. True politics at work.
Quoting 70. tampabaymatt:



He didn't receive a majority of the votes either time he was elected. True politics at work.


Nope its called stupid FL voters not politics. Politics didn't vote Rick Scott into office you did.
Quoting 71. StormTrackerScott:



Nope its called stupid FL voters not politics. Politics didn't vote Rick Scott into office you did.


Actually Scott, I did not vote for Rick Scott during either election. I chose to not vote in the last election as I could not fathom choosing between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist. I'm not sure why you would assume I voted for Rick Scott when I just trashed the guy on here.
Quoting 72. tampabaymatt:



Actually Scott, I did not vote for Rick Scott during either election. I chose to not vote in the last election as I could not fathom choosing between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist. I'm not sure why you would assume I voted for Rick Scott when I just trashed the guy on here.


I'm sorry I didn't mean you per say I meant us as voters in FL. I voted for Charlie but again remember FL is dominated by old people and older people are more likely to be or vote republican.
74. bwi
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 19/0943 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S
174.5W AT 190600 UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. ORGANISATION REMAINS
POOR AND CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSE LLCC IN THE PAST
6 TO 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND INITIALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWEST THAN GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13F CENTRE [1008HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S
150.0W AT 190600 UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. ORGANISATION REMAINS
POOR AND CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSE LLCC IN THE PAST
12 TO 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND INITIALLY MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THAN GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Since. When did dr m blog be came a voters. And political blog?
Since. When did dr m blog be came a voters. And political blog?



since climate change became a political topic....and todays topic is about climate change
mid march plume finally came out....now i know...we're in that spring barrier time and only a fool would trust the models at this time....but....those three averages......hmmmmmm...not saying...just humming......hmmmmmmm


Quoting ricderr:
mid march plume finally came out....now i know...we're in that spring barrier time and only a fool would trust the models at this time....but....those three averages......hmmmmmm...not saying...just humming......hmmmmmmm




"A fool on the hill". A Beatles classic.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nature has trolled ultimately hard this week.Tricking people into thinking it's spring and then Wham! More snow Friday and next week.I can't stop nature from doing what it's going to do however I'm glad it's not ice...


I made a special point a couple weeks ago to discuss the upcoming cold weather and possible snow for the Northeast later in the month.

At this same time, a couple well known morning weather broadcasters/meteorologists were saying that Winter/snow was finished for the season.

I really didn't understand why they were making those comments, when the models were clearly showing a return to cold weather later in the month.


Just watched the 'elevator pitches' and a few of the 'morethanscientists' clips. Well worth watching, IMHO.

Ken Caldeira's really struck a chord with me...and Richard Alley's mention of heat-seeking missiles is definitely a unique approach!

Thank you, Dr. Masters, for including these in your blog post.
IRI ENSO Forecast
2015 March Quick Look
Published: March 19, 2015

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)


Use the navigation menu on the right to navigate to the different forecast sections

During February through mid-March 2015 the SST just met the thresholds for weak Niño conditions. During the last month, some of the atmospheric variables began indicating an El Niño pattern more than they had been earlier, including trade wind weakening and excess rainfall migrating farther to the east. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate weak El Niño conditions during the March-May 2015 season in progress, continuing and strengthening El Niño toward mid-2015.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA TODAY...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONGER DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR A HAMILTON TO PERRY TO VIDALIA
LINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL
REMAIN WEAK...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT DURING DAYTIME HEATING. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
MAINLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME... INSTABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$
GFS has yet more snow for new England area end of march gee.................
Michael Ventrice MJVentrice
The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season looking like another dud. Tropical pattern looks like last year, not 95' or 05'
Quoting 85. LargoFl:

GFS has yet more snow for new England area end of march gee.................


12Z Euro really drops the cold south this run
I hoping this GFS precipitation forecast is a bust. My area of S.W. Florida is the only location from Texas across the S.E. with no precipitation.

Quoting 89. Sfloridacat5:

I hoping this GFS precipitation forecast is a bust. My area of S.W. Florida is the only location from Texas across the S.E. with no precipitation.




Going to be a decent amount of rain across C & S FL on Monday. Maybe 1" to 1.5" on Monday in some areas.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Well, you guys elected him...twice.
haha roflmao, what part of you thinks we have free and fair elections in this state. Bush v Gore. ring a bell.
Very cold airmass for Late March showing up on some of the models today.

Quoting 93. StormTrackerScott:

Very cold airmass for Late March showing up on some of the models today.




Scott, are the models still showing a return in the southern jet for late March? We could use the rain.
Latest Euro..

Anyone else on the Space Coast catching the Blue Angels practice for the air show? These guys are phenomenal.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Going to be a decent amount of rain across C & S FL on Monday. Maybe 1" to 1.5" on Monday in some areas.


Bring it on. YTD only 3.24" for Fort Myers and the majority of that fell in one day (1.75" on Feb. 28th).
Quoting 88. StormTrackerScott:



12Z Euro really drops the cold south this run
Quoting 94. tampabaymatt:



Scott, are the models still showing a return in the southern jet for late March? We could use the rain.


Yes, it looks like a series of disturbances one being today are beating down this Southeastern Ridge . Each one that comes in is knocking the ridge further and further south with one coming in on Monday knocking out the Ridge out all together and allowing for -14c to -15C temps at 500mb which is significant as this will lead to a very unstable atmosphere across FL with what could be rounds of storms rolling in off the Gulf. Then a more significant deep trough arrives late next week or next weekend with another potentially more impressive rain event with some storms being severe at that point. So we could actually end March close to average in terms of precip.
Quoting 92. yoboi:

Well according to Gavin we should continue the pause in warming for another 5-10 yrs....

Global temperatures will resume their long term growth trend within five to 10 years ending the so called pause in global warming, a leading climate scientist has predicted.

Link



If warming accelerated now, that would be within five years, so...
Good Guardian article on this winter's record low Arctic Ocean ice extent.

Link
Quoting 98. hydrus:





Please let it be an April Fool's joke.
Quoting 81. Sfloridacat5:



I made a special point a couple weeks ago to discuss the upcoming cold weather and possible snow for the Northeast later in the month.

At this same time, a couple well known morning weather broadcasters/meteorologists were saying that Winter/snow was finished for the season.

I really didn't understand why they were making those comments, when the models were clearly showing a return to cold weather later in the month.




When you made it "a special point a couple of weeks ago to discuss the upcoming cold and possible snow for for the Northeast later in the month", did you also make it a "special point" to also discuss the more imminent record heat in the West and Plains? If not, maybe the models are not accurate enough to reliably predict the weather that far in advance.
Quoting 102. TimTheWxMan:




Please let it be an April Fool's joke.
at 312 hours out....April Fools.lol
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Please let it be an April Fool's joke.


The North Pole is trying to relocate to Hudson's Bay.

Quoting 104. Storms306:

at 312 hours out....April Fools.lol


It is a pattern that has repeated itself throughout the winter, so it would certainly not be surprising to see a major April snowstorm. They do happen and this year I would tend to think there would be a greater chance statistically speaking of this situation occurring due in part to the persistent ridge that has plagued the West Coast all winter, ultimately forcing below average anomalies over the areas point east of the Mississippi River.
Quoting 89. Sfloridacat5:

I hoping this GFS precipitation forecast is a bust. My area of S.W. Florida is the only location from Texas across the S.E. with no precipitation.




I'm w/ you, SFL --- that dry chip of land in the graphic is Cape Coral, all roasty-toasty & dry! I would much rather have that big cold front stall over us for a couple days, with disturbances riding along it and giving us a good drenching!
Quoting 107. ILwthrfan:



It is a pattern that has repeated itself throughout the winter, so it would certainly not be surprising to see a major April snowstorm. They do happen and this year I would tend think there would be greater chance statistically speaking of this situation occurring due in part to the persistent ridge that has plagued the West Coast all winter, ultimately forcing below average anomalies over the areas point east of the Mississippi River.


People better come to terms with what is coming as we just had a record MJO event and this is going to cause the jet to buckle and plunge south. Once this occurs some of the coldest air we've seen in Late March across the East maybe on the way.

The level of denialism you see in these climate change/arctic sea ice stories is downright horrifying.
Quoting 105. yoboi:



Because so many people have said there has been NO pause in warming....Well Gavin does work for NASA....I guess when so many myths are told they are sure to slip up with the truth....


The pause is in the rate of surface temperature increase, not global warming. Stop misleading people, troll.


Tampa Bay area - I guess the chance of having cooler weather is gone.
Quoting 105. yoboi:



Because so many people have said there has been NO pause in warming....Well Gavin does work for NASA....I guess when so many myths are told they are sure to slip up with the truth....

When you say 'pause', you mean it stopped, and that is demonstrably not the case.
Quoting yoboi:
Well according to Gavin we should continue the pause in warming for another 5-10 yrs....
Gavin who? Certainly not Gavin Schmidt, who has never stated there was a "pause" in warming (for the simple fact that there has indeed been no pause). The only thin he *has* said is that talking about such a pause is a misplaced distraction.
Quoting 114. SeriouslySushi:


When you say 'pause', you mean it stopped, and that is demonstrably not the case.


The deniers have no rational response. It used to be funny to seem them flounder, now it's just annoying since they have no other choice but to repeat beaten to death memes.
Quoting 107. ILwthrfan:



It is a pattern that has repeated itself throughout the winter, so it would certainly not be surprising to see a major April snowstorm. They do happen and this year I would tend to think there would be a greater chance statistically speaking of this situation occurring due in part to the persistent ridge that has plagued the West Coast all winter, ultimately forcing below average anomalies over the areas point east of the Mississippi River.
I see where you are coming from. I also agree that a snowstorm is very likely in the works. However, i don't agree with the snow and ice coming as far south as it is showing. It's too far south for this time of the year. I think if it does snow it will be in the mountains of NC and in VA north of the Route 460 line. Then again i could be totally wrong and wake up to several inches of snow on the ground.lol
Quoting ACSeattle:

When you made it "a special point a couple of weeks ago to discuss the upcoming cold and possible snow for for the Northeast later in the month", did you also make it a "special point" to also discuss the more imminent record heat in the West and Plains? If not, maybe the models are not accurate enough to reliably predict the weather that far in advance.


Models have been showing the heat out West, but that wasn't part of the discussion.

The discussion was over the cold weather continuing in the Northeast.
This was brought about by some morning weather broadcasters saying the cold weather was finished for the year.

See Scott's comment #93
It's clearly showing cold air over the East and very unseasonably warm weather across the Plains at the end of the month.




Quoting 102. TimTheWxMan:



Please let it be an April Fool's joke.


I know it's a joke because it shows rain in SoCal.
Quoting 117. Storms306:

I see where you are coming from. I also agree that a snowstorm is very likely in the works. However, i don't agree with the snow and ice coming as far south as it is showing. It's too far south for this time of the year. I think if it does snow it will be in the mountains of NC and in VA north of the Route 460 line. Then again i could be totally wrong and wake up to several inches of snow on the ground.lol

Agreed. I don't see the trough getting quit that far south, if it does, it could be one dozy of a system with moisture pulling up from the Caribbean. I'd say your right DC and points north probably have the greatest chance.
Quoting 113. tampabaymatt:



Tampa Bay area - I guess the chance of having cooler weather is gone.


I'm not surprised, model guidance had this week in the mid 70's down there and low 70's up here about a week ago, instead both here and there have been in the low to mid 80's. The late spring/early summer subtropical ridge south and southeast of Florida that marks the end of the cool season has already become well established, and when it does, it pretty much shuts off cool weather.

With that said, it's funny how temps are actually trending warmer behind the next "cold" front. This trended already started the other day on the models, but it takes some time to show up on the forecasts.
Pretty remarkable. The nation's (Canada and the U.S.) couldn't be more divided between unseasonably cold and unseasonably warm weather.

Boston could keep adding to its snow total for at least a couple more weeks.

GFS for April 2
Quoting 108. OrchidGrower:



I'm w/ you, SFL --- that dry chip of land in the graphic is Cape Coral, all roasty-toasty & dry! I would much rather have that big cold front stall over us for a couple days, with disturbances riding along it and giving us a good drenching!

You are more than welcome to get some of the rain here in SE TX. We're getting 1-2 inches per event, and have been getting 1-2 "events" EVERY week since january. I'm good. Really.
Quoting 93. StormTrackerScott:

Very cold airmass for Late March showing up on some of the models today.




I'm willing to bet it will probably happen but won't affect Florida, the last couple weeks models have showed cooling events in Florida at 7-10 days only to back off completely. This is because climatology has much stronger influence in model guidance in the long term, and since it's completely normal to still have cool events this time of year, it shows up in the long term guidance.

However in reality, the late spring subtropical ridging that keeps frontal cooling away from us by normally a bit later in the year is already well established.
Quoting 88. StormTrackerScott:



12Z Euro really drops the cold south this run

I'm going to be so angry if this brings me a freeze. My citrus and everything is blooming/leafing out right now. Last year this new growth narrowly escaped a late March freeze. And if it does happen at this time, it will just be pouring lemon juice on the wound as it is right around my birthday.
Quoting 125. Jedkins01:



I'm willing to bet it will probably happen but won't affect Florida, the last couple weeks models have showed cooling events in Florida at 7-10 days only to back off completely. This is because climatology has much stronger influence in model guidance in the long term, and since it's completely normal to still have cool events this time of year, it shows up in the long term guidance.

However in reality, the late spring subtropical ridging that keeps frontal cooling away from us by normally a bit later in the year is already well established.

I'm really hoping it doesn't.
Quoting yoboi:


However, an analysis of global temperature data published last year uses statistics to avoid the charge of cherry picking and indicates that the pause dates back to 1995. Ross McKitrick from the Department of Economics at the University of Guelph in Canada, who analysed the data, is seen as sceptical about global warming but his research was published in the peer-reviewed Open Journal of Statistics and its findings have yet to be challenged.

McKitrick's analysis dating the start of the the pause in surface temperatures to 1995 agrees with the view of acknowledged climate sceptic physicist Professor Richard Lindzen of MIT who has written there has been “no statistically significant warming since 1995”.

Cause of the pause

A number of possible explanations have been put forward to explain the pause These include a build up of heat in the deep oceans, a weakening of solar activity and aerosols of volcanic ash in the atmosphere that reflect the sun’s rays back into space. However, the impact of solar activity and volcanoes does not appear sufficient to explain the problem and the accumulation of deep ocean heat appears to be somewhat elusive – the measured increase in ocean heat content being less than that required to explain the pause.

Link
You stated that Gavin Schmidt said the "pause" in warming would continue for 5-10 more years. I responded that Schmidt never said there was a pause. You've now chosen to ignore that comment, instead moving the target of the discussion by quoting a) an economist and b) a notorious denier. That's not how productive discussions are carried out. Instead of shifting your footing every time you're challenged, please stay on target and respond to the original post. Also, stop trolling. It's not funny, and it lowers the quality of the dialog here.
Quoting 123. Sfloridacat5:

Pretty remarkable. The nation's (Canada and the U.S.) couldn't be more divided between unseasonably cold and unseasonably warm weather.

Boston could keep adding to its snow total for at least a couple more weeks.

GFS for April 2



This is probably the most significant effect of climate change that we have seen so far. The polar jet stream 'loops' (Rossby waves) have become much larger and are plunging further south, bringing cold air down to some regions, such as New England, but also dragging warm air up from the south to other regions, such as Alaska and Siberia.

More significantly, these loops appear to have much more inertia, and have become stuck in the same place for months on end. Usually, they move west to east, but these big loops are stationing themselves in the same position for long periods.

Last winter, an unusually persistent loop brought very cold weather down the US east coast, then veered northwards over the UK, where it persisted for months, bringing the wettest and windiest winter to the UK since records began. This year, the loop has had the same effect on New England, but has kept west of the UK, bringing exceptionally stormy weather to Iceland.

This new jet stream regime has also brought record flooding, snowfall and heatwaves to Europe, Russia and Pakistan in recent years. It was entirely unpredicted, and makes you wonder what other unpredicted weather phenomena lie in store.
Quoting 51. LAbonbon:


Regarding your accusation of 'false data' - please provide documentation. That's a pretty serious accuation, and flat out challenges the integrity of Dr. Masters and NOAA.

Regarding 'non-liberal sites' - the problem is, if you are looking for 'non-liberal sites' to get your data, YOU are looking to have 'science' presented to you from an ideological viewpoint. Thing is, science does not know or care one whit about your, or anybody else's, political ideology. Simply because the science isn't to your liking, and is presented factually on this site as well as by NOAA, does not make it 'liberal'. It just IS.



Naturally, after all scientific research is just a bunch of high horse elitist liberals trying to sound smart to feed the left wing community, right?

But no, really, as silly as that sounds, back home in my parents neighborhood, we have neighbors who literally say similar things. My mom told me one of our neighbors scolded her for allowing me to go to college for meteorology because I would be "duped by a bunch of left wing idiots".

You know, naturally it boggles my mind and how ridiculous people can be, but after I while I have to just start laughing at the ridiculousness of people who lock their mind in fear of such nonsense, it's better for the mind and body to just laugh sometimes. I also consider myself pretty conservative for the record, lol.
131. JRRP
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 17 minHace 17 minutos
@EricBlake12 ECMWF is very high for this summer! You're right, the ECMWF over-forecast significantly in 2013 and 2014
Quoting 129. yonzabam:



This is probably the most significant effect of climate change that we have seen so far. The polar jet stream 'loops' (Rossby waves) have become much larger and are plunging further south, bringing cold air down to some regions, such as New England, but also dragging warm air up from the south to other regions, such as Alaska and Siberia.

More significantly, these loops appear to have much more inertia, and have become stuck in the same place for months on end. Usually, they move west to east, but these big loops are stationing themselves in the same position for long periods.

Last winter, an unusually persistent loop brought very cold weather down the US east coast, then veered northwards over the UK, where it persisted for months, bringing the wettest and windiest winter to the UK since records began. This year, the loop has had the same effect on New England, but has kept west of the UK, bringing exceptionally stormy weather to Iceland.

This new jet stream regime has also brought record flooding, snowfall and heatwaves to Europe, Russia and Pakistan in recent years. It was entirely unpredicted, and makes you wonder what other unpredicted weather phenomena lie in store.


Absolutely, this was and has been well addressed by researchers.
Welcome to Spring
Quoting 127. opal92nwf:


I'm really hoping it doesn't.


Me too, I'm happy to have the warmth back, I had my taste of cool for the winter, and I'm done with it, the temperatures and sights of spring are beautiful, it puts me in a good mood to get school done. Cold cloudy weather has a tunnel eternity feel that makes it feel as if a break from work will never come. This warm spring weather naturally helps combat school/work stress in contrast.
Risk of moderate flooding for parts of central and
eastern United States
No drought relief in sight for California, Nevada or Oregon this spring


Excerpt:

According to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today, rivers in western New York and eastern New England have the greatest risk of spring flooding in part because of heavy snowpack coupled with possible spring rain. Meanwhile, widespread drought conditions are expected to persist in California, Nevada, and Oregon this spring as the dry season begins.
Quoting 135. nrtiwlnvragn:

Risk of moderate flooding for parts of central and
eastern United States
No drought relief in sight for California, Nevada or Oregon this spring


Excerpt:

According to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today, rivers in western New York and eastern New England have the greatest risk of spring flooding in part because of heavy snowpack coupled with possible spring rain. Meanwhile, widespread drought conditions are expected to persist in California, Nevada, and Oregon this spring as the dry season begins.


I'm surprised more isn't being said about the risk of flooding in the NE when all of that snow melts.
Quoting 120. ILwthrfan:



Spent 1976-1978 in lower undergraduate work at VPI in Blacksburg VA (SW VA Mountains). April 26, 1978 had a several inch coating of heavy wet snow at 2100 feet on campus. This was preceded by almost five inches of RAIN. Above 3000 feet
a large fraction of this liquid dump was snow producing 18" of dense heavy wet snow. White mountain caps were still visible May 1 but disappeared that day.
Quoting 134. Jedkins01:



Me too, I'm happy to have the warmth back, I had my taste of cool for the winter, and I'm done with it, the temperatures and sights of spring are beautiful, it puts me in a good mood to get school done. Cold cloudy weather has a tunnel eternity feel that makes it feel as if a break from work will never come. This warm spring weather naturally helps combat school/work stress in contrast.


You would have fun doing graduate work at PSU, (been there) or Wisconsin (even colder!) :-)

Quoting 107. ILwthrfan:



It is a pattern that has repeated itself throughout the winter, so it would certainly not be surprising to see a major April snowstorm. They do happen and this year I would tend to think there would be a greater chance statistically speaking of this situation occurring due in part to the persistent ridge that has plagued the West Coast all winter, ultimately forcing below average anomalies over the areas point east of the Mississippi River.


Look at April 6 1982 for just one example. April coastals are not rare and are an expected part of the climatology of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic region with a return period of only a few years.
Quoting 126. opal92nwf:


I'm going to be so angry if this brings me a freeze. My citrus and everything is blooming/leafing out right now. Last year this new growth narrowly escaped a late March freeze. And if it does happen at this time, it will just be pouring lemon juice on the wound as it is right around my birthday.


I had lettuce freeze in early April 1987 in Tallahassee. Also tasselling corn though that's very early for the panhandle and I only had it because I use all sorts of tricks to add growing degree days and make it earlier.
ucla gets a nice gift
Quoting 81. Sfloridacat5:



I made a special point a couple weeks ago to discuss the upcoming cold weather and possible snow for the Northeast later in the month.

At this same time, a couple well known morning weather broadcasters/meteorologists were saying that Winter/snow was finished for the season.

I really didn't understand why they were making those comments, when the models were clearly showing a return to cold weather later in the month.



Anyone who has been living in the D.C area for a while knows that we can still get cold as late as May and even June depending on the set up.Just this past July we had a Polar Vortex that saved us from one of the hottest times of the year.
Quoting 130. Jedkins01:




Naturally, after all scientific research is just a bunch of high horse elitist liberals trying to sound smart to feed the left wing community, right?

But no, really, as silly as that sounds, back home in my parents neighborhood, we have neighbors who literally say similar things. My mom told me one of our neighbors scolded her for allowing me to go to college for meteorology because I would be "duped by a bunch of left wing idiots".

You know, naturally it boggles my mind and how ridiculous people can be, but after I while I have to just start laughing at the ridiculousness of people who lock their mind in fear of such nonsense, it's better for the mind and body to just laugh sometimes. I also consider myself pretty conservative for the record, lol.

It's perception vs. reality, in many cases. And with certain 'news' outlets and personalities railing against institutions of higher education, some folks begin to believe it.

I went to college in New England...I had some conservative professors, some liberal-ish professors, some in-between, but for the majority, I have no idea what their politics are. Where does politics come into play when one is learning fluid mechanics, geomorphology, calculus or ecology? It simply doesn't. And how in the world would politics come into play for meteorology or atmospheric sciences?

For liberal arts courses, I can imagine politics and viewpoints are more involved, but then again that makes sense. But the whole point of college is learning, which should never be avoided or discouraged.

How have we come to the point that higher education is discouraged because of a perceived 'taint' of ideology? It really is a bizarre world we are living in.

BTW, I sincerely hope your parents don't worry about what you're learning :)

Maybe your mom could ask her neighbor where she would prefer to get her weather or hurricane forecasts - from someone who never studied meteorology, or from a trained professional?
From Eos:

Sea Level Rise Added $2 Billion to Sandy’s Toll in New York City

The storm surge affected 11.4% more people and 11.6% more housing units than it would have without sea level rise.


A map, prepared by Kulp et al., of areas in New York City flooded by Hurricane Sandy. Both blue and orange areas were flooded, but the orange areas would not have flooded were it not for the 20-centimeter rise in sea level over the 20th century. The large orange and blue area at the lower right of the map is John F. Kennedy International Airport. The map was created by the simulation program, and the authors stress that it is provisional and subject to refinement.

To those who think that climate change is an abstract concept, one that might possibly affect their grandchildren in the far-off future, scientists at Climate Central have a ready response. They have calculated that sea level rise over the 20th century caused more than $2 billion in additional damage during Hurricane Sandy in New York City alone.

That additional damage can be attributed to largely human-induced climate change that has already occurred, says Scott Kulp of Climate Central.

“We cannot say that Sandy itself was a result of climate change,” Kulp told Eos, but “we can attribute at least part of the flooding damage from Hurricane Sandy to climate change. It’s a warning for the next decades to come.”

Read more >>
Quoting 144. Xandra:

From Eos:

Sea Level Rise Added $2 Billion to Sandy’s Toll in New York City

The storm surge affected 11.4% more people and 11.6% more housing units than it would have without sea level rise.


A map, prepared by Kulp et al., of areas in New York City flooded by Hurricane Sandy. Both blue and orange areas were flooded, but the orange areas would not have flooded were it not for the 20-centimeter rise in sea level over the 20th century. The large orange and blue area at the lower right of the map is John F. Kennedy International Airport. The map was created by the simulation program, and the authors stress that it is provisional and subject to refinement.

To those who think that climate change is an abstract concept, one that might possibly affect their grandchildren in the far-off future, scientists at Climate Central have a ready response. They have calculated that sea level rise over the 20th century caused more than $2 billion in additional damage during Hurricane Sandy in New York City alone.

That additional damage can be attributed to largely human-induced climate change that has already occurred, says Scott Kulp of Climate Central.

“We cannot say that Sandy itself was a result of climate change,” Kulp told Eos, but “we can attribute at least part of the flooding damage from Hurricane Sandy to climate change. It’s a warning for the next decades to come.”

Read more >>

Absolutely....I have commented here many times that the eustatic rise of the seas and oceans will have the largest impact on humans at first. The change in climate will be monitored to see how the land masses will be affected by large and unusual pattern changes.
Quoting opal92nwf:

I'm really hoping it doesn't.
There's an old saw down here that mature pecan trees won't leaf out until the danger of frost is gone. The only study I can find about that is one out of the University of Oklahoma which shows the pecan tree is right about 80% of the time over a 50 year period. FWIW, the pecan trees here started to leaf out yesterday. When it comes to long range models, there was supposed to be a big cold wave down here this weekend. That obviously isn't going to happen. They've also been predicting widespread rain here since the beginning of March. I got 0.12" earlier today which now gives me a monthly total of 0.49". The average to today in March is 1.97". At least for me, it's pretty clear the models aren't doing well, so I take anything extreme out 300 hours with about five pounds of salt. :-)
Winter Storm Ultima Link



Quoting ricderr:
mid march plume finally came out....now i know...we're in that spring barrier time and only a fool would trust the models at this time....but....those three averages......hmmmmmm...not saying...just humming......hmmmmmmm




Can you post link to the site
Quoting 149. Chucktown:



OMG, stop with the gloom and doom, knee jerk reaction. This (cough) study (cough) was clearly one of those "funded" studies to keep someone their job. This alarmist reaction to every weather event now is getting real old and the public is beginning to catch on to this. Just read the comments after any of these "AGW" yarns that are becoming all too common.


Stop with the science denial and accusations with no basis. You're an embarrassment to your field. I feel sorry that you are so ideologically blind, you refuse to acknowledge reality.
With climate changing, is an eastern U.S. trough going to be the new norm ??
Quoting 150. Naga5000:



Stop with the science denial and accusations with no basis. You're an embarrassment to your field. I feel sorry that you are so ideologically blind, you refuse to acknowledge reality.


Sort of like this guy:

BAT GUANO CRAZINESS PERSONIFIED



Late evening post with a bit unusual view on problems of climate change, or, to be more precise, the strong wind storms which were recently created by the very cold and snowy weather in the northeast coast of the US and Canada. In the last weeks there have been several reports that these storms, combined with high waves, took a big toll on the shorelines and beaches in the north of the British Isles (Ireland and Scotland):

RNLI: North coast cliff warning after 'dramatic' coastal erosion
BBC, March 5, 2015
A public safety warning has been issued because severe weather along Northern Ireland's north coast has created unstable sand cliffs, some 18ft high. The Royal National Lifeboat Institution (RNLI) said winter storms have "dramatically changed the profile" of some popular beaches in the area. The rescue charity urged beach visitors to "stay away from cliff edges". It said Whiterocks, Portrush East and Portstewart beaches were significantly affected by coastal erosion. ...

The erosion endangers archeological and historical sites at the coast:

Battle to save ancient church in danger of falling into the sea
STV, 17 March 2015 15:40 GMT
Conservationists are fighting to save a 600-year-old church in danger of being swept into the sea. Storms which battered the Western Isles earlier this year destroyed a sea wall protecting St Columba's on Lewis. High waves and 100mph winds eroded the shore at Aignish, putting the historic chapel at risk.
Krystyna Pytasz, from conservationists Addison Conservation and Design, said: "It has been a race against accountants and tides. By the end of March, sheet piling will be in place to further protect the church from further storm damage. This has been a very difficult project because of the very short timescales - the funding from Historic Scotland has to be spent by the end of March - and the continuing very bad weather causing further erosion of the coastline."
Human bones turned up on the shore near St Columba's after they were washed down from the church's graveyard in January. Nineteen chiefs of the clan Macleod are buried in the cemetery. ...


Today's news tell us that in Ireland they now want to tackle the problem (eh, and to be true: I'd love to be part of this archeological SAR crowd; I remember when I once visited the very tiny and lonely Irish island of Illauntannig in 2001, which in former times was inhabited by monks way back since the 7th century, the owner showed me human bones, sticking out of the shallow slope down the beach; I told him he should better report this to the archeological authorities):

"Citizen" archaeologists to be recruited to save Ireland's coastal heritage
Jane Walsh @irishcentral March 18,2015 10:10 PM
An initiative aiming to protect Ireland's vulnerable coastal heritage from climate change and damaging winter storms will recruit "citizen" archaeologists for a new pilot project.
A conference on "weather-beaten archaeology" was held at the Institute of Technology (IT) Sligo and was attended by archaeologists, geologists, meteorologists, government policymakers, botanists, historians, and commentators from Ireland, and other countries, to discuss the new initiative.
Artifacts are being exposed at an alarming rate due to last winter’s battering of the west coast and this winter's tides. Also the government's resources for recording and responding are scarce, according to archaeology lecturer Dr James Bonsall of IT Sligo.
Speaking to the Irish Times, he said that recent discoveries of Spanish Armada timbers off Streedagh, County Sligo, and ancient drowned forests in Connemara, County Galway show the importance of community action.
His colleague Dr Fiona Beglane, has been monitoring the erosion rate at Staad medieval church, at Agharow, Sligo, where the sea has taken more than 10 meters of land. She says that archaeology is "being washed into the sea with every tide" and she predicts the church itself will be lost within a decade.
IT Sligo aims to initiate a new project to save these endangered sites by involving the community.
The "Monitoring Archaeology on Sligo's Coastline" (MASC) initiative plans to recruit community birdwatchers, dog walkers, beach combers and coastal surveyors to help map vulnerable sites and record artifacts.
"People are often not sure of what they've found, and the idea is to raise awareness and to ensure that anything valuable is recorded and is preserved as quickly as possible," said Dr Bonsall.
"We want to think that we have freak weather, but these 'extreme' events are becoming more common and will continue to do so with climate change," Dr Bonsall said.
"Gathering information is the key and then National Monuments Service does react quickly," he said. "If our pilot project is successful, it could be rolled out across the State."



Ruins of Staad church. Source of the pic: Irish Archeology: Weather Beaten Archaeology: IT Sligo to host new Archaeology Conference


What climate change denial looks like, demographically.

Quoting 149. Chucktown:



OMG, stop with the gloom and doom, knee jerk reaction. This (cough) study (cough) was clearly one of those "funded" studies to keep someone their job. This alarmist reaction to every weather event now is getting real old and the public is beginning to catch on to this. Just read the comments after any of these "AGW" yarns that are becoming all too common.

Really? You're a met, correct? Would you continue to do your job without compensation? Without someone funding the required equipment and necessary resources you use daily?

And in regards to the comments sections, go to ANY article, on ANY subject, on almost ANY website, and there are loads and loads of people with loads and loads of opinions. Who in the world bases their view of reality on comments? Some of them are flat out nuts. Sure, some knowledgeable people comment, but there are some crazy opinions out there. And the nuttier they are, the more other commenters seem to feed off them.
That pic of the Florida Governor looks just like the Fire Marshall Bill character by Jim Carry.
And don't get me started about the educational system here in Florida under his guidance.
Quoting Naga5000:


Stop with the science denial and accusations with no basis. You're an embarrassment to your field. I feel sorry that you are so ideologically blind, you refuse to acknowledge reality.


Sorry, my field is meteorology, not climatology. Anyway, weather drives climate, not vice versa like climate change folk believe. Oh, and here is another one of "those" knee jerk reactions and asinine headlines from the AGW ilk.

Link

Quoting 157. Chucktown:



Sorry, my field is meteorology, not climatology. Anyway, weather drives climate, not vice versa like climate change folk believe. Oh, and here is another one of "those" knee jerk reactions and asinine headlines from the AGW ilk.

Link



Huh, now that's really misleading and disingenuous. Here is the actual source from the SPC (unedited), not filtered through a wordpress site with the story filed under 'AGW is a cult'.

Link
Quoting Chucktown:


Sorry, my field is meteorology, not climatology. Anyway, weather drives climate, not vice versa like climate change folk believe. Oh, and here is another one of "those" knee jerk reactions and asinine headlines from the AGW ilk.

Link

You're right that headline is ridiculous. You're wrong about it coming from "the AGW ilk". That blog is written by a guy who thinks that AGW is false and a cult. You've got to read more than the headline if you want to gain some understanding.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Really? You're a met, correct? Would you continue to do your job without compensation? Without someone funding the required equipment and necessary resources you use daily?

And in regards to the comments sections, go to ANY article, on ANY subject, on almost ANY website, and there are loads and loads of people with loads and loads of opinions. Who in the world bases their view of reality on comments? Some of them are flat out nuts. Sure, some knowledgeable people comment, but there are some crazy opinions out there. And the nuttier they are, the more other commenters seem to feed off them.


You are comparing apples to oranges. I get paid to forecast what will happen in the next 24 hours and a weather trend for the next 7 days. These climate change "specialists" are being paid to scare the public into worst case scenarios and what could happen if this happens and if this happens.

Quoting 157. Chucktown:



Sorry, my field is meteorology, not climatology. Anyway, weather drives climate, not vice versa like climate change folk believe. Oh, and here is another one of "those" knee jerk reactions and asinine headlines from the AGW ilk.

Link




Your source of information is fraudulent. That why you have no idea what you are talking about.
Quoting sar2401:
You're right that headline is ridiculous. You're wrong about it coming from "the AGW ilk". That blog is written by a guy who thinks that AGW is false and a cult. You've got to read more than the headline if you want to gain some understanding.


Yea, I saw that after I posted. I know the article was written by NOAA, then mocked by this blogger. Well then how about this, he just wanted to beat the "AGW ilk" before they actually were paid to prove that headline.
Quoting 155. LAbonbon:

Who in the world bases their view of reality on comments? Some of them are flat out nuts. Sure, some knowledgeable people comment, but there are some crazy opinions out there. And the nuttier they are, the more other commenters seem to feed off them.

Yeh, better be cautious with blog comments. Not climate related, but important in respect to spins and trolls:
Ukraine conflict: Inside Russia's 'Kremlin troll army'
By Olga Bugorkova BBC Monitoring, 19 March 2015 Last updated at 17:02 GMT
Quoting 160. Chucktown:



You are comparing apples to oranges. I get paid to forecast what will happen in the next 24 hours and a weather trend for the next 7 days. These climate change "specialists" are being paid to scare the public into worst case scenarios and what could happen if this happens and if this happens.



This is exactly the type of comment that is being thrown around in comments all over the web. Show the proof. Science is self-correcting, there's lots of proposals, review of data, quality control, review of research findings, etc. Your statement has no basis in fact.

When I see comments like that I assume the commenter does not understand how research actually works.
Quoting 160. Chucktown:



You are comparing apples to oranges. I get paid to forecast what will happen in the next 24 hours and a weather trend for the next 7 days. These climate change "specialists" are being paid to scare the public into worst case scenarios and what could happen if this happens and if this happens.


Go on. Tell us more. What specialists? Who's paying them? Why is somebody trying to scare the public? Into doing what?

Go ahead and tell it all. Don't be shy. And don't forget to include the black helicopters and Agenda 21!
Quoting 166. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Okay, Keep...message received :)
Quoting 168. LAbonbon:


Okay, Keep...message received :)
now the message has been sent below
Quoting FLwolverine:
Go on. Tell us more. What specialists? Who's paying them? Why is somebody trying to scare the public? Into doing what?

Go ahead and tell it all. Don't be shy. And don't forget to include the black helicopters and Agenda 21!


As much as this word is frowned upon, there is an agenda. Scientists are not getting paid to disprove CC, so if there is money available to prove it, why not. Take your pick. Hell maybe I'll even turn the other cheek for some extra dough.

Link

Link

Link

Quoting 151. SlabTown:

With climate changing, is an eastern U.S. trough going to be the new norm ??


My old cynical saying at PSU in 1979-81 about trough posiition was "three days in the West, three weeks in the East". And somehow I failed to notice this as much during graduate study at FSU. Wonder why!

Nope this is not new. We are locked into a western ridge, eastern trough pattern as has happened before and will happen again.

I think AGW is going to harm us through much more malevolent and disruptive mechanisms (species extinction, agricultural disaster sea level rise, ocean acidification) than just changing short term weather patterns. It's happening. Most bad weather isn't a sign of it.
Anyone note this statement from Dr. Masters' post:

"On February 21, Wittenoom, Australia recorded a minimum temperature of 35.1°C (95.2°F), which is a new world record of highest minimum temperature for the month of February."

That seems really hot for a night time low. I wonder what the all-time highest minimum temp is? (For anywhere, any month). Anyone know where to find this? I looked at Herrera's site, but didn't see it. Also checked his wiki page and wiki's 'List of Weather Records' page, but no luck.
Quoting 173. LAbonbon:

Anyone note this statement from Dr. Masters' post:

"On February 21, Wittenoom, Australia recorded a minimum temperature of 35.1C (95.2F), which is a new world record of highest minimum temperature for the month of February."

That seems really hot for a night time low. I wonder what the all-time highest minimum temp is? (For anywhere, any month). Anyone know where to find this? I looked at Herrera's site, but didn't see it. Also checked his wiki page and wiki's 'List of Weather Records' page, but no luck.


I cant find a source yet, but I know during the night there was somewhere in Kansas a few years ago where the temperature shot up to over 90 degrees, because of freak weather phenomenon.

Heat burst. <---LINK

In meteorology, a heat burst is a rare atmospheric phenomenon characterized by gusty winds and a rapid increase in temperature and decrease in dew point (moisture). Heat bursts typically occur during night-time and are associated with decaying thunderstorms.[1]

i guess the overnight low would still occur before the event so nevermind...lol
Quoting 171. Chucktown:



As much as this word is frowned upon, there is an agenda. Scientists are not getting paid to disprove CC, so if there is money available to prove it, why not. Take your pick. Hell maybe I'll even turn the other cheek for some extra dough.

Link

http://www.epa.gov/region9/climatechange/grants.h tml

Link

Link




Actually a sound and valid attempt to disprove the AGW hypothesis or find alternative explanations for what is happening globally, using sound science would probably be VERY well funded and if successful, enormously rewarded and accoladed. The Alchemist's search for the Philosopher's Stone would have been also if successful.
Quoting 173. LAbonbon:

Anyone note this statement from Dr. Masters' post:
"On February 21, Wittenoom, Australia recorded a minimum temperature of 35.1C (95.2F), which is a new world record of highest minimum temperature for the month of February."

That seems really hot for a night time low. I wonder what the all-time highest minimum temp is? (For anywhere, any month). Anyone know where to find this? I looked at Herrera's site, but didn't see it. Also checked his wiki page and wiki's 'List of Weather Records' page, but no luck.

Just ask all knowing aunt Google :-) The answer is some years old, though:

Q: What's the record for the highest nighttime temperature ever recorded?
A: Death Valley, Calif., recorded a low of 104F on the night of July 23-24, 2003, which is the highest overnight low anywhere in the world that I could find. Outside of the U.S. Desert Southwest, the only 100F minimum I've seen was 100F on July 30, 1989, at Muscat, Oman. During this summer's heat wave in southern Italy, the town of Cefalu, Sicily, dropped to only 98.1F on the night of June 24-25. This was the highest minimum on record for Europe.
This page from Death Valley National Park has more about the weather and climate of the hottest, driest place in the USA.
(Answered by writer Christopher Burt, author of Extreme Weather, Sept. 10, 2007)
Source.

Edit: And this is more recent :-)
While large parts of the United States battle high temperatures and drought, Death Valley, California, set an unusual new record last week, matching the hottest low temperature ever recorded on Earth. Jeff Masters on Wunderground.com says,
On Thursday morning, July 12, 2012 the low temperature at Death Valley, California dropped to just 107F (41.7C), after hitting a high of 128 (53.3C) the previous day. Not only does the morning low temperature tie a record for the world's warmest low temperature ever recorded, the average temperature of 117.5F is the world's warmest 24-hour temperature on record.
Quoting 174. ILwthrfan:



I cant find a source yet, but I know during the night there was somewhere in Kansas a few years ago where the temperature shot up to over 90 degrees, because of freak weather phenomenon.

Heat burst. <---LINK

In meteorology, a heat burst is a rare atmospheric phenomenon characterized by gusty winds and a rapid increase in temperature and decrease in dew point (moisture). Heat bursts typically occur during night-time and are associated with decaying thunderstorms.[1]


Heat bursts happen every year but are rare at any given point. But they are an ordinary and expected phenomenon and I would argue the word "freak" is overused.
Quoting 173. LAbonbon:

Anyone note this statement from Dr. Masters' post:

"On February 21, Wittenoom, Australia recorded a minimum temperature of 35.1°C (95.2°F), which is a new world record of highest minimum temperature for the month of February."

That seems really hot for a night time low. I wonder what the all-time highest minimum temp is? (For anywhere, any month). Anyone know where to find this? I looked at Herrera's site, but didn't see it. Also checked his wiki page and wiki's 'List of Weather Records' page, but no luck.


Wittenoom doesn't seem to be a very pleasant place and not just for the temperature.




More ...
Quoting 177. georgevandenberghe:



Heat bursts happen every year but are rare at any given point. But they are an ordinary and expected phenomenon and I would argue the word "freak" is overused.
yeah it happens quite a bit actually but not much fanfare with it ive seen temps in the 50's during the day only to soar into mid 70's or higher during the night it happens more than we realize
Quoting 171. Chucktown:



As much as this word is frowned upon, there is an agenda. Scientists are not getting paid to disprove CC, so if there is money available to prove it, why not. Take your pick. Hell maybe I'll even turn the other cheek for some extra dough.

Link

Link

Link





Your tinfoil hat fell off again. Thank you for continuing to show everyone your complete lack of basic knowledge of the grant funding/applications/research process, and complete ignorance of the scientific discourse.

You'd be hard pressed to find a grant to study if owls were real or if hats existed too. You know why? Because in the real science world, human caused climate change is an accepted scientific theory with over 200 years of interdisciplinary science supporting it.

I love when you guys self marginalize.



Quoting 162. Chucktown:



Yea, I saw that after I posted. I know the article was written by NOAA, then mocked by this blogger. Well then how about this, he just wanted to beat the "AGW ilk" before they actually were paid to prove that headline.


I think your belt is too tight. Something is cutting off blood flow to your brain.
Quoting 180. yoboi:



Yeah neap it's the same Gavin.....

The pause – which on some measures has gone on since the mid-1990s - continued into 2014 on the basis of global temperature data released last week by US space agency NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US.

However, the warming effect of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide will grow sufficiently to overcome the combined impact of various natural climate cooling factors, journalists on a telephone news conference were told last week by Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies.

There is evidence that volcanoes and a slightly dimmer Sun have acted to cool the Earth recently and so offset the warming impact of greenhouse gases, according to Schmidt, widely seen as a strong advocate for the case that humans are causing climate change. But Schmidt said that he did not expect the global warming pause – which he referred to as the hiatus - to persist.

This is because the warming impact, or forcing, due to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would keep growing with continuing emissions of greenhouse gases, Schmidt said, and "in five to ten years time it is changes in greenhouse gases that will dominate".

Link



The pause or hiatus is in the rate of increase, it is not the same as a pause in the warming.



I really don't understand why you can't understand that. The rate of increase did not accelerate, it stayed the same, meaning the temperatures still rose...
Thanks, ILwthrfan, and thanks, barb (aka 'Net Ninja')! Those are some awfully hot and uncomfortable nighttime temps.
Quoting 182. Naga5000:



I think your belt is too tight. Something is cutting off blood flow to your brain.
Isn't this a "personal" attack? Where are ya mods? If I made this comment, I'd get a vacation.
Quoting 184. LAbonbon:

Thanks, ILwthrfan, and thanks, barb (aka 'Net Ninja')! Those are some awfully hot and uncomfortable nighttime temps.

Sure they are, Bonnie. Death Valley wouldn't be the first place where I'd like to live ;-)
Quoting 185. PensacolaDoug:

Isn't this a "personal" attack? Where are ya mods? If I made this comment, I'd get a vacation.


It was an observation. I mean, did you see his comment? In order to really believe that, there would need to be some cause. I was hypothesizing, I was probably wrong, but I figured I should try and help. Ya dig?
Quoting 178. JohnLonergan:



Wittenoom doesn't seem to be a very pleasant place and not just for the temperature.




More ...


I thought that town sounded familiar. According to this Wiki page, three people still live there.
Quoting 187. Naga5000:



It was an observation. I mean, did you see his comment. In order to really believe that, there would need to be some cause. I was hypothesizing, I was probably wrong, but I figured I should try and help. Ya dig?
Argue with him, debunk his theories. You're rationalizing an excuse to attack someone. It's against the rules. This is "bias".
Quoting 181. Naga5000:




Your tinfoil hat fell off again. Thank you for continuing to show everyone your complete lack of basic knowledge of the grant funding/applications/research process, and complete ignorance of the scientific discourse.

You'd be hard pressed to find a grant to study if owls were real or if hats existed too. You know why? Because in the real science world, human caused climate change is an accepted scientific theory with over 200 years of interdisciplinary science supporting it.

I love when you guys self marginalize.






lol this line of argument always cracks me up...like, don't you think it would be worth a fortune to the fossil fuel industry if you could "disprove climate change"? they'd pay billions - but they don't, because...well...the science disagrees.
Quoting 157. Chucktown:


Sorry, my field is meteorology, not climatology. Anyway, weather drives climate, not vice versa like climate change folk believe. Oh, and here is another one of "those" knee jerk reactions and asinine headlines from the AGW ilk.

Link



No reason to try and change the subject and bring up other articles. The discussion you originally replied to was about how the sea level rise due to global warming contributed to flood damages in New York City. You've yet to provide any evidence as to why that analysis was incorrect, you just did your typical whining about climate science and the same tired old claim that scientists are "blaming" every weather event on global warming.
Quoting 186. barbamz:


Sure they are, Bonnie. Death Valley wouldn't be the first place where I'd like to live ;-)


LOL - that's an awesome gif :)

Actually, though, I was thinking of Cefalu, Sicily when I wrote that. For a seafront town/city, that struck me as really hot.
Quoting 189. PensacolaDoug:

Argue with him, debunk his theories. You're rationalizing an excuse to attack someone. It's against the rules. This is "bias".


Always the persecuted one, Doug, always. Go bother someone else for a bit, thanks.
Quoting 192. LAbonbon:


LOL - that's an awesome gif :)

Actually, though, I was thinking of Cefalu, Sicily when I wrote that. For a seafront town/city, that struck me as really hot.

Sicily really got an extreme climate - that's why this island shows up very often in my notorious European weather posts, hmm :-) When I was there in a November some years ago, I experienced the most enduring and very strong rain in my life on every second day. This was at the east coast on the slopes of Etna volcano though, while at the north coast (where Cefalu is situated) it stayed bone dry and hot!
Quoting 185. PensacolaDoug:

Isn't this a "personal" attack? Where are ya mods? If I made this comment, I'd get a vacation.


I am right here
give it a rest

if someone is trying to debunk something that's a known fact

well its gonna get a little messy

or we could just let the lie go and allow confusion to continue

or give him some cash and he will turn the lies into truth

as long as its for his own benefit

seems to say a lot about his morals


other than that its all good
Quoting 189. PensacolaDoug:

Argue with him, debunk his theories. You're rationalizing an excuse to attack someone. It's against the rules. This is "bias".


Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur

Quoting Chucktown:


OMG, stop with the gloom and doom, knee jerk reaction. This (cough) study (cough) was clearly one of those "funded" studies to keep someone their job. This alarmist reaction to every weather event now is getting real old and the public is beginning to catch on to this. Just read the comments after any of these "AGW" yarns that are becoming all too common.
Oh, Chucktown. Stop with the alarmism, the paranoia, the ideological screeds, would you guys? Please? We understand it hurts to admit defeat, but admit it your side must. Go ahead. It's okay. Everyone knows: science has won yet again.

Was that ever even in doubt? ;-)
Quoting 197. misanthrope:



Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur




Mr. Wilson!
Quoting ScottLincoln:

No reason to try and change the subject and bring up other articles. The discussion you originally replied to was about how the sea level rise due to global warming contributed to flood damages in New York City. You've yet to provide any evidence as to why that analysis was incorrect, you just did your typical whining about climate science and the same tired old claim that scientists are "blaming" every weather event on global warming.


Because any scientist can just throw numbers out there and say climate change was responsible for 11% more damage from Sandy. It's an absurd study and a false finding. How about it was just about a perfect landfalling storm to create that much and type of flooding and just leave it alone. Why must there be other findings and reasons for the result of Sandy? It is what it is, leave it at that.
Quoting 197. misanthrope:
Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur

You match up your name, lol. Here's the translation: Link
Quoting 202. barbamz:


You match up to your name, lol. Here's the translation: Link

I took it as Hitchens' translation

(Very similar though)
Quoting 193. nrtiwlnvragn:

While we are on the subject that should not be mentioned.... (The Governor may come after me Link)

Obama orders federal agencies to cut carbon emissions 40% within 10 years


Arctic sea ice hit a record low this winter. Here's why it matters.





I wonder how he'll react to this:

FEMA to States: No Climate Planning, No Money

Governors seeking billions of dollars in U.S. preparedness funds will have to sign off on plans to mitigate effects of climate change.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is making it tougher for governors to deny man-made climate change. Starting next year, the agency will approve disaster preparedness funds only for states whose governors approve hazard mitigation plans that address climate change.

This may put several Republican governors who maintain the earth isn't warming due to human activities, or prefer to do nothing about it, into a political bind. Their position may block their states' access to hundreds of millions of dollars in FEMA funds. Over the past five years, the agency has awarded an average $1 billion a year in grants to states and territories for taking steps to mitigate the effects of disasters. ...
Quoting 200. Chucktown:



Because any scientist can just throw numbers out there and say climate change was responsible for 11% more damage from Sandy. It's and absurd study and a false finding. How about it was just about a perfect landfalling storm to create that much and type of flooding and just leave it alone. Why must there be other findings and reasons for the result of Sandy? It is what it is, leave it at that.
Good evening Chuck . Do you believe the climate is warming.? I am not even referring to anything man made. I am asking you , do you , or do you not , believe that the Earths climate is warming.?
"To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination and marks real advance in science."

- Albert Einstein
Queensland cyclone damage minimal
1:18am March 20, 2015
Cyclone Nathan is weakening over far north Queensland after sparing the region any major damage, but forecasters say it could reform.
Nathan made landfall as a category four system north of Cape Flattery at about 4am on Friday.
It has since been downgraded to a three and is heading west and is expected to be a tropical low by Friday evening.
But forecasters are warning it could re-form into a category one cyclone over the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Cooktown, which lies about 100km south of where Nathan crossed the coast, experienced gusts of 85km/h and Cook Shire Mayor Peter Scott says damage is minimal.
The town didn't see anything like the 230km/h winds forecasters warned were swirling in Nathan's destructive core when it hit land.
Mr Scott and local residents have expressed relief a repeat of the last category four storm to hit Cooktown - Cyclone Ita, which struck in April last year - was avoided.
Nathan was "fluky and gusty" by comparison, Mr Scott said, and Cooktown appeared to have dodged a bullet. ...
Quoting 200. Chucktown:



Because any scientist can just throw numbers out there and say climate change was responsible for 11% more damage from Sandy. It's an absurd study and a false finding. How about it was just about a perfect landfalling storm to create that much and type of flooding and just leave it alone. Why must there be other findings and reasons for the result of Sandy? It is what it is, leave it at that.


Maybe you should try reading the methodology. No one is just throwing out numbers. We do science to understand things. Why don't you want to understand things? You seem frightening by change.
Quoting 193. nrtiwlnvragn:

While we are on the subject that should not be mentioned.... (The Governor may come after me Link)

Obama orders federal agencies to cut carbon emissions 40% within 10 years


Arctic sea ice hit a record low this winter. Here's why it matters.



don't worry mom got plans for the governor something about a look on his face
Quoting 201. jrweatherman:



I don't know why you guys get your panties all waded up because someone doesn't believe in something that you do. It's not a contest. No one has won any prizes.


No winners here, bud, only losers. It's like the lifeguard trying to save the struggling drowning victim.

It isn't about a contest, for me, it's purely about making sure accurate scientific information is disseminated. Science denial, pseudo science, conspiracy theory are all detrimental to societal well being. I care about others, and for that, I need the drowning victim to stop fighting and let me help us make it back to shore safely. Get it?
Quoting hydrus:
Good evening Chuck . Do you believe the climate is warming.? I am not even referring to anything man made. I am asking you , do you , or do you not , believe that the Earths climate is warming.?


No. First, I believe there is a lot of heat island effect issues and where temperatures are taken now versus 30 years ago. Second, I don't think satellite measurements are even close to actual thermometer readings (which again are biased warm with the heat island). Third, if there is some warming going on, its due to the cycles we are experiencing (PDO, AMO, solar, etc.) CO2 doubling in the last 100 years is not enough to alter the climate. It's a trace gas and always will be.
Quoting 209. PensacolaDoug:



It's all good.

"Mod approved bias" is the norm here. Should I quote the rule regarding personal attacks?
this is not the place for this take up with admins send a ticket if there is a problem I will be informed other than that this is the last reply regarding it from me I suggest the same
Quoting 190. evilpenguinshan:



lol this line of argument always cracks me up...like, don't you think it would be worth a fortune to the fossil fuel industry if you could "disprove climate change"? they'd pay billions - but they don't, because...well...the science disagrees.


And they can get their tools to post garbage for far less, If Willie Soon only got about $1,200,000 imagine how little they pay the average blog psuedosceptic.
Quoting 197. misanthrope:



Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur




Same as it ever was...
Quoting 212. Chucktown:



No. First, I believe there is a lot of heat island effect issues and where temperatures are taken now versus 30 years ago. Second, I don't think satellite measurements are even close to actual thermometer readings (which again are biased warm with the heat island). Third, if there is some warming going on, its due to the cycles we are experiencing (PDO, AMO, solar, etc.) CO2 doubling in the last 100 years is not enough to alter the climate. It's a trace gas and always will be.
you have all the right to present yourself in a formal manner as long as its not disruptive to the discussion's at hand or the blog entry carry on


Jeff Masters


blog title



Climate Summaries
Quoting 213. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this is not the place for this take up with admins send a ticket if there is a problem I will be informed other than that this is the last reply regarding it from me I suggest the same
I'll get the ban for quoting the rules?
Quoting Naga5000:


Maybe you should try reading the methodology. No one is just throwing out numbers. We do science to understand things. Why don't you want to understand things? You seem frightening by change.


What if the study said climate change caused 30% more damage and flooding? Would it really matter? The media feeds on this junk and in turn, spits it out to the public. Like I said earlier, public is beginning to catch on, but it is still very gullible. Like that commercial a few years back, "if its on the internet, it must be true."
Quoting 200. Chucktown:



Because any scientist can just throw numbers out there and say climate change was responsible for 11% more damage from Sandy. It's an absurd study and a false finding. How about it was just about a perfect landfalling storm to create that much and type of flooding and just leave it alone. Why must there be other findings and reasons for the result of Sandy? It is what it is, leave it at that.
Since you're the one with the scientific background ( I'm just an English major), maybe you could throw some numbers around and explain to me why the study is "false", instead of just claiming it is. And as for why it was done, umm, maybe because if people understand how sea level rise increases damage done by storms, they will be able to plan better for the future? Not to mention maybe getting concerned enough to want to take some action about climate change?
April snows and such, not that it really matters. . . In early April 2009 dear daughter and I spent a weekend in Ithaca, NY visiting Cornell (college visit). It snowed, it sleeted, it rained, and it was miserable. That is, the weather was miserable. Ithaca was gorgeous. The following weekend we spent in Claremont, CA, visiting Harvey Mudd College. It was sunny, with daytime highs in the 90s and 100s. Being from the sunny south (South Carolina), she chose Mudd, and enjoyed four years there. It hailed and there was even frost once, but nary a snowflake. Now she's at UW-Madison, seeing plenty of snow and cold - snow starts in October, snow happens in April. Thus far she has not reported snow in the May to September period, but she's not holding out hope that this will be true for the next three years as well. Returning you now to your regularly-scheduled blob alerts, global warming fights, and discussions of MJO, which always make me want a mojito.
Quoting 218. PensacolaDoug:

I'll get the ban for quoting the rules?
no u will get a ban for running with it to cause disruption
if u don't like something flag it
it will be reviewed
this is not rocket science please
Quoting 212. Chucktown:



No. First, I believe there is a lot of heat island effect issues and where temperatures are taken now versus 30 years ago. Second, I don't think satellite measurements are even close to actual thermometer readings (which again are biased warm with the heat island). Third, if there is some warming going on, its due to the cycles we are experiencing (PDO, AMO, solar, etc.) CO2 doubling in the last 100 years is not enough to alter the climate. It's a trace gas and always will be.


I suggest standing in a room with 300 ppm of hydrogen sulfide in the air, report your findings on trace gases in about an hour.

Heat island is adjusted for in the data, both rural and urban stations show the same trend.

Satellite measurements don't measure surface temperature, they measure lower atmospheric temperature through microwaves, and have notoriously large issues with land height and clouds, they are not the same.

Those cycles move heat around, they do not create energy.

This is all basic stuff that is not in question.
thinking we are just going to have to wait for the cold air masses to warm
before we start to see warmer weather from the north this year

Quoting 212. Chucktown:



No. First, I believe there is a lot of heat island effect issues and where temperatures are taken now versus 30 years ago. Second, I don't think satellite measurements are even close to actual thermometer readings (which again are biased warm with the heat island). Third, if there is some warming going on, its due to the cycles we are experiencing (PDO, AMO, solar, etc.) CO2 doubling in the last 100 years is not enough to alter the climate. It's a trace gas and always will be.


Just because a gas is in trace amounts does not mean it's effects will be "trace". Our atmosphere is 0.04% CO2. Arsenic is deadly at 0.006% according to the CDC. If you were to double that amount of arsenic, do you think the effects wouldn't be bad? A doubling of anything could lead to very bad effects depending on what it is. Luckily, we know how CO2 works for the past couple hundred years. It is bad...

Climate Skeptic Richard Muller Admits Global Warming is Real and Humans are the Cause (on DemocracyNow)

Berkeley Earth - all data and findings freely and readily available.

Friday is first day of spring the high north is getting closer to there 24 hr days
Quoting 219. Chucktown:



What if the study said climate change caused 30% more damage and flooding? Would it really matter? The media feeds on this junk and in turn, spits it out to the public. Like I said earlier, public is beginning to catch on, but it is still very gullible. Like that commercial a few years back, "if its on the internet, it must be true."


Do these arguments make sense as you type them out? Why would it matter? Because there would be an impetus for us to stop screwing up the planet and putting people at risk. The public is not rejecting climate science, in fact there has been little to no statistical change over the last few years with small increases in absolute percentage. You really can't sit here and ask us to take your word, post links to climate change conspiracy websites, and then expect us to take your argument "if its on the internet, it must be true."as serious in any fashion.

You are a science denier, it's not your fault, but you can fix it.
Have to go to bed now, folks, as I'm a poor European ;-)
Tomorrow morning will be the hour of truth for our European grid due to the (partial) sun eclipse (with smog and clouds or without, and the latter could be worse): Europe’s Power Grid Braces for Friday’s Solar Eclipse

The eclipse comes along with a record tide - we already had a significant one in February and there will be another one in September, but German media tell us the one in the wake of the eclipse should be the biggest (albeit no wind storm is around this time to enhance the impact). Very little to find in English media though:

Islanders warned to stick to low water fishing laws
19 March 2015 at 11:26am
Islanders are being warned to stick to the law, while low water fishing this weekend.
Jersey's expected to experience some of the biggest tides of the year so far, with a range of 12 metres between high and low tide on Saturday and Sunday.
That means great conditions for low water fishing, but the Department of the Environment has issued a reminder of the laws protecting the island's marine life ...


We'll see how it pans out. If I won't show up for a while our grid didn't make it ;-) Good night everyone!
Quoting 215. yoboi:






Again, the conversation was not about the RSS dataset, it was about the surface temperature series. The RSS has problems, and their lead scientist even states the surface temperature measurements are more reliable as you have been shown roughly 50 times.

This was another poor attempt at a bait and switch after digging yourself into a hole of nonsense. Please stop.
Quoting 229. barbamz:

Have to go to bed now, folks, as I'm a poor European ;-)
Tomorrow morning will be the hour of truth for our European grid due to the (partial) sun eclipse (with smog and clouds or without, and the latter could be worse): Europe’s Power Grid Braces for Friday’s Solar Eclipse

The eclipse comes along with a record tide - we already had a significant one in February and there will be another one in September, but German media tell us the one in the wake of the eclipse should be the biggest (albeit no wind storm is around this time to enhance the impact). Very little to find in English media though:

Islanders warned to stick to low water fishing laws
19 March 2015 at 11:26am
Islanders are being warned to stick to the law, while low water fishing this weekend.
Jersey's expected to experience some of the biggest tides of the year so far, with a range of 12 metres between high and low tide on Saturday and Sunday.
That means great conditions for low water fishing, but the Department of the Environment has issued a reminder of the laws protecting the island's marine life ...


We'll see how it pans out. If I won't show up for a while our grid didn't make it ;-) Good night everyone!

it will be alright
tomorrow is a wunder of nature
take it as such

night see u tomorrow
Quoting 220. FLwolverine:

Since you're the one with the scientific background ( I'm just an English major), maybe you could throw some numbers around and explain to me why the study is "false", instead of just claiming it is. And as for why it was done, umm, maybe because if people understand how sea level rise increases damage done by storms, they will be able to plan better for the future? Not to mention maybe getting concerned enough to want to take some action about climate change?

It's false because it conflicts with his ideology. Life is so much simpler when you know the truth beforehand, don't you know. All that science gobbledygook only confuses the issue
Quoting Naga5000:


I suggest standing in a room with 300 ppm of hydrogen sulfide in the air, report your findings on trace gases in about an hour.

Heat island is adjusted for in the data, both rural and urban stations show the same trend.

Satellite measurements don't measure surface temperature, they measure lower atmospheric temperature through microwaves, and have notoriously large issues with land height and clouds, they are not the same.

Those cycles move heat around, they do not create energy.

This is all basic stuff that is not in question.


Hydrogen sulfide is poisonous, CO2 is not. Plants need it to survive.

Heat island and urban effects cannot be easily accounted for since they are constantly changing due to infrastructure changing along with added areas of blacktop and deteriorating scientific instruments.

If there are so many issues with satellite data, why is it so readily accepted?

The law of conservation of energy.
This states that energy can be neither created nor destroyed. However, energy can change forms, and energy can flow from one place to another. The total energy of an isolated system does not change.

Same goes for precipitation on this fine planet. The amount of moisture is constant, always. The drought in the west, well, the water is somewhere. It will eventually come back. In the meantime, don't live in a desert.
"Aren’t scientists and journalists growing embarrassed..."

The irony here is incalculable.

And yoboi, to be honest, I accidentally plussed your post...touch screen error. Posts slamming scientists, science findings, and indirectly, the owner of this blog, just seem rude. :/

Quoting 227. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Friday is first day of spring the high north is getting closer to there 24 hr days


My younger son in Ottawa for a hockey tournament would tell us it doesn't feel very "springlike".
Quoting barbamz:
Queensland cyclone damage minimal
1:18am March 20, 2015
Cyclone Nathan is weakening over far north Queensland after sparing the region any major damage, but forecasters say it could reform.
Nathan made landfall as a category four system north of Cape Flattery at about 4am on Friday.
It has since been downgraded to a three and is heading west and is expected to be a tropical low by Friday evening.
But forecasters are warning it could re-form into a category one cyclone over the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Cooktown, which lies about 100km south of where Nathan crossed the coast, experienced gusts of 85km/h and Cook Shire Mayor Peter Scott says damage is minimal.
The town didn't see anything like the 230km/h winds forecasters warned were swirling in Nathan's destructive core when it hit land.
Mr Scott and local residents have expressed relief a repeat of the last category four storm to hit Cooktown - Cyclone Ita, which struck in April last year - was avoided.
Nathan was "fluky and gusty" by comparison, Mr Scott said, and Cooktown appeared to have dodged a bullet. ...


A few graphs and data readings of STC Nathan landfall just north of Cape Flattery.





Quoting barbamz:

Yeh, better be cautious with blog comments. Not climate related, but important in respect to spins and trolls:
Ukraine conflict: Inside Russia's 'Kremlin troll army'
By Olga Bugorkova BBC Monitoring, 19 March 2015 Last updated at 17:02 GMT
Funny you should bring this up. The Kremlin trolls have really been at work over at CNBC. Any time any story about Russia, the Ukraine, or Putin is posted, there are at least 20 comments shortly thereafter from these trolls. It's not hard to tell who they are based on their political views and their "English" English. There was one today who posted she "had the honour to be born in the USA". First, we don't talk like that and, second, we don't spell "honor" that way. :-) I have to chuckle a little when I see posts speculating about paid trolls here. If there are people being paid to troll AGW posts either their agency doesn't have much of a budget or WU isn't high on the priority list. The scariest part to me is that the anti-science posters here are true believers. You can always turn a troll just by paying him more money.
Quoting 230. Naga5000:



Again, the conversation was not about the RSS dataset, it was about the surface temperature series. The RSS has problems, and their lead scientist even states the surface temperature measurements are more reliable as you have been shown roughly 50 times.

This was another poor attempt at a bait and switch after digging yourself into a hole of nonsense. Please stop.


These are much better

Tamino:


Zeke Hausfather (BEST)



Commenter Torsten at Tamino's

Quoting 146. sar2401:

There's an old saw down here that mature pecan trees won't leaf out until the danger of frost is gone. The only study I can find about that is one out of the University of Oklahoma which shows the pecan tree is right about 80% of the time over a 50 year period. FWIW, the pecan trees here started to leaf out yesterday. When it comes to long range models, there was supposed to be a big cold wave down here this weekend. That obviously isn't going to happen. They've also been predicting widespread rain here since the beginning of March. I got 0.12" earlier today which now gives me a monthly total of 0.49". The average to today in March is 1.97". At least for me, it's pretty clear the models aren't doing well, so I take anything extreme out 300 hours with about five pounds of salt. :-)


This seems early for pecans. I remember early April was leaf out time in Tallahassee. The old timers said to put in a garden "after Easter"

I've never seen freeze damage on hardwoods here in DC metro. In New Jersey (Princeton) I did see it in 1983 in mid May. I've heard anecdotes that in eastern and Central TN April freezes after another warm March in 2007 hit hardwoods really really hard and left them defoliated into May.

I observed for forty years that freezes never happened after the white clover bloomed, typically mid May here in DC. This rule worked in New Jersey but not in Tallahassee. And in March 2012 in DC I saw clover blooming March 26 (record early) followed by an arctic freeze (wind, 30F, low dewpoints) March 27.

An old Native American rule is to plant corn when the oak leaves are the size of a mouse's ear.
This one works, but partly because corn is frost tolerant when young since the growing point is below the soil surface until plants are several inches high with a few leaves.
Quoting 235. Chucktown:



Hydrogen sulfide is poisonous, CO2 is not. Plants need it to survive.

Heat island and urban effects cannot be easily accounted for since they are constantly changing due to infrastructure changing along with added areas of blacktop and deteriorating scientific instruments.

If there are so many issues with satellite data, why is it so readily accepted?

The law of conservation of energy.
This states that energy can be neither created nor destroyed. However, energy can change forms, and energy can flow from one place to another. The total energy of an isolated system does not change.

Same goes for precipitation on this fine planet. The amount of moisture is constant, always. The drought in the west, well, the water is somewhere. It will eventually come back. In the meantime, don't live in a desert.


Denier talking points 101, Chuck. Please go educate yourself.

CO2 is a trace gas Myth.


Urban Heat Island Myth


Energy Imbalance Measured

Satellite measurements are merely another proxy measurement, I really don't know where this whole thing is supposed to be going. You argument makes you sound like a luddite.

And finally a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, that's basic stuff, it is not constant. Come on meteorologist.




Quoting Chucktown:


Hydrogen sulfide is poisonous, CO2 is not. Plants need it to survive.

Heat island and urban effects cannot be easily accounted for since they are constantly changing due to infrastructure changing along with added areas of blacktop and deteriorating scientific instruments.

If there are so many issues with satellite data, why is it so readily accepted?

The law of conservation of energy.
This states that energy can be neither created nor destroyed. However, energy can change forms, and energy can flow from one place to another. The total energy of an isolated system does not change.

Same goes for precipitation on this fine planet. The amount of moisture is constant, always. The drought in the west, well, the water is somewhere. It will eventually come back. In the meantime, don't live in a desert.
No, carbon dioxide in high enough concentrations can kill you. Too much oxygen will also kill you. Almost anything in a high enough concentration can kill you.

Symptoms of Carbon Dioxide Intoxication and Poisoning
deeper breathing
twitching of muscles
increased blood pressure
headache
increased pulse rate
loss of judgement
labored breathing

unconsciousness (occurs in under a minute when CO2 concentration rises about 10%)

Heat islands and urban heat effects don't change overnight. Even the number that change in a year is tiny compared to the total number of ground stations. Scientists (and computers) are always looking at observations that seem out of whack compared to others in the area and make changes where needed so it's not like there's some huge number of stations that can totally out of the norm.

We have satellite atmospheric temperature measurement partly because it's not measuring the same thing as ground stations and partly because it serves as kind of a backstop for ground data. Once we know the ratio satellite and ground temperatures it's not hard to see if one or the other has gotten out of whack.

Still, if you believe that man has had zero effect on whatever warming has taken place, none of this will matter to you. Since you have decided the truth regardless of all other reasonably accurate measures of global temperature, your belief has assumed the scope of a religion. Nothing wrong with having a religion as long as you can clearly separate faith from physical reality.
death
Quoting 212. Chucktown:



No. First, I believe there is a lot of heat island effect issues and where temperatures are taken now versus 30 years ago. Second, I don't think satellite measurements are even close to actual thermometer readings (which again are biased warm with the heat island). Third, if there is some warming going on, its due to the cycles we are experiencing (PDO, AMO, solar, etc.) CO2 doubling in the last 100 years is not enough to alter the climate. .It's a trace gas and always will be
It may be a trace gas, but it is evenly distributed, its increasing, and it does not breakdown like methane. There is a huge amount of co2 in the oceans , 50 times what the atmosphere has. and at this time we put huge amounts of co2 into the atmosphere. Co2 is potent and efficient at holding and insulating heat near the earths surface . Methane and other gases help this warming affect. As the Earth warms , other factors such as ocean acidification, peat bogs, volcanic activity, and deforestation all cause a further increase of the atmospheres ability to keep warm air insulated near the surface. Since 1901, it has been estimated that 345 gigatonnes of co2 have been ejected into the atmophere. The effects of this ( what ever they are ) are irreversible , and all that pollution had to end up somewhere here on Earth. It did not drift off into space as some actually believe.. Now things are warming faster , and more co2 " trace gas " is being released. Suffice it to say, we may have some run away affect, regardless of how much or little effect we,ve had on the air we breath, but putting an end to air pollution, cleaning up toxic waste , and no more ocean, sea or lake dumping , would make a fantastic step in the right direction . I do not doomcast, I do not lean right or left. Nor am I an alarmist. Been posting here a while and always listen to other folks thought and interests when this subject arises.


No, carbon dioxide in high enough concentrations can kill you. Too much oxygen will also kill you. Almost anything in a high enough concentration can kill you.


So can water
Northern Gulf is heating up Buoy #42039 water temp 75.6
Quoting 240. yoboi:



I agree when you compare apples to apples.....

Contrary to the EPA edicts CO2 is neither a pollutant nor a poison and is absolutely essential for life on Earth. CO2 concentration in the air aboard U.S. submarines is maintained at or below 8,000 ppm, about 20 times current atmospheric levels. Who is to say what arbitrary levels are optimum in the atmosphere, when higher levels are harmless and actually enhance plant growth? Humankind evolved under much higher levels of atmospheric CO2, and persevered through many natural global warming/cooling cycles far more extreme than we are experiencing.

Link


O really?

The Last Time CO2 Was This High, Humans Didn’t Exist


The simple fact is CO2 is a long lived greenhouse gas, you can call it "not a pollutant" or whatever you would like, unfortunately your naming conventions have little effect on its ability to absorb long wave radiation.
Well if anyone cares I got to meet some very special people today that were visiting D.C! :) (look at the news) Never thought it would happen ever! but it did! A friendly family for sure.As a native I got to explain some hot spots to visit!

Night everyone.
Quoting yoboi:


I agree when you compare apples to apples.....

Contrary to the EPA edicts CO2 is neither a pollutant nor a poison and is absolutely essential for life on Earth. CO2 concentration in the air aboard U.S. submarines is maintained at or below 8,000 ppm, about 20 times current atmospheric levels. Who is to say what arbitrary levels are optimum in the atmosphere, when higher levels are harmless and actually enhance plant growth? Humankind evolved under much higher levels of atmospheric CO2, and persevered through many natural global warming/cooling cycles far more extreme than we are experiencing.


I'm removing the link from your quote. AVG shows that site as attempting to download the Blackhat virus/exploit. The site acted like it was trying to download something before AVG stopped it. I'm also flagging your post due to this apparent exploit in the link. If you actually went to that site rather than just copy a link, I suggest you do a virus scan of your computer now.
Quoting 237. georgevandenberghe:



My younger son in Ottawa for a hockey tournament would tell us it doesn't feel very "springlike".


nice here
snow cover is next to nil
just little piles left from plows now
temps just above freezing or better during day still freezing at night but that's normal it will get better but not till mid april maybe longer the more east and north u go

and there still could be some snow to come for some yet
257. beell
Quoting 246. sar2401:

Symptoms of Carbon Dioxide Intoxication and Poisoning
deeper breathing
twitching of muscles
increased blood pressure
headache
increased pulse rate
loss of judgement
labored breathing




Apparently, I have spent many a night suffering from Carbon Dioxide Intoxication. I was told I had a good time...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
No, carbon dioxide in high enough concentrations can kill you. Too much oxygen will also kill you. Almost anything in a high enough concentration can kill you.


So can water
True, but we generally don't breathe water...or at least not for very long. :-)
Quoting 255. yoboi:



"CO2 concentration in the air aboard U.S. submarines is maintained at or below 8,000 ppm, about 20 times current atmospheric levels."

Maybe you missed the part where I was talking about submarines...So I put it in quotations again.....


Good for those on submarines, it doesn't change the fact that CO2 absorbs long wave radiation now does it? Keep self marginalizing. Greenhouse effect deniers are my favorite, because middle schoolers have a better grasp of the science than you guys do.
Quoting Naga5000:


Denier talking points 101, Chuck. Please go educate yourself.

CO2 is a trace gas Myth.


Urban Heat Island Myth


Energy Imbalance Measured

Satellite measurements are merely another proxy measurement, I really don't know where this whole thing is supposed to be going. You argument makes you sound like a luddite.

And finally a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, that's basic stuff, it is not constant. Come on meteorologist.






Yes a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, but the total amount of water (liquid, solid, and vapor) on this planet is constant.
An ominous new study, published in Nature:

Amazon rainforest is taking up a third less carbon than a decade ago
18 Mar 2015, 18:05 Robert McSweeney

The amount of carbon that the Amazon rainforest is absorbing from the atmosphere and storing each year has fallen by around a third in the last decade, says a new 30-year study by almost 100 researchers.

This decline in the Amazon carbon sink amounts to one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide - equivalent to over twice the UK's annual emissions, the researchers say.

If this pattern exists in other forests around the world, deeper cuts in human-caused carbon dioxide emissions are needed to meet climate targets, the researchers say.

Three billion trees

The Amazon rainforest is the largest rainforest in the world. Spanning nine countries in South America, it's 25 times the size of the UK.

Using a process known as photosynthesis, the Amazon's three billion trees convert carbon dioxide, water and sunlight into the fuel they need to grow, locking up carbon in their trunks and branches.

As they grow, Amazon trees account for a quarter of the carbon dioxide absorbed by the land each year. Studies suggest that as human-caused carbon dioxide emissions increase, forests will absorb and store more carbon, assuming they have enough water and nutrients to grow.

But a new study, published today in Nature, suggests the Amazon has passed saturation point for how much extra carbon it can take up.
Read full article
Quoting LAbonbon:
Anyone note this statement from Dr. Masters' post:

"On February 21, Wittenoom, Australia recorded a minimum temperature of 35.1°C (95.2°F), which is a new world record of highest minimum temperature for the month of February."

That seems really hot for a night time low. I wonder what the all-time highest minimum temp is? (For anywhere, any month). Anyone know where to find this? I looked at Herrera's site, but didn't see it. Also checked his wiki page and wiki's 'List of Weather Records' page, but no luck.


I have read that Death Valley is the only place in the United States to record lows over 100 F. On July 12, 2012 Death Valley had a low of 107.1 F That has to be close to the world record.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


This seems early for pecans. I remember early April was leaf out time in Tallahassee. The old timers said to put in a garden "after Easter"

I've never seen freeze damage on hardwoods here in DC metro. In New Jersey (Princeton) I did see it in 1983 in mid May. I've heard anecdotes that in eastern and Central TN April freezes after another warm March in 2007 hit hardwoods really really hard and left them defoliated into May.

I observed for forty years that freezes never happened after the white clover bloomed, typically mid May here in DC. This rule worked in New Jersey but not in Tallahassee. And in March 2012 in DC I saw clover blooming March 26 (record early) followed by an arctic freeze (wind, 30F, low dewpoints) March 27.

An old Native American rule is to plant corn when the oak leaves are the size of a mouse's ear.
This one works, but partly because corn is frost tolerant when young since the growing point is below the soil surface until plants are several inches high with a few leaves.
It's about a week early for us but our average high the past week has been 79.8 and low 56.9 so I suspect the trees have been tricked a bit. Climatology, we're past our last freeze date, which is between March 1-10. I think frost vs freeze is a little different down here as well. Even though our last freeze shouldn't happen after March 10, we've had frosts as late as April 14. The accepted definition seems to be that temperatures below 32 for at least six hours during the growing season is a freeze whereas a temperature of 32 for only an hour or two is a frost, regardless of of there's any actual frost on the ground. It makes sense for us since we only have about 50 days out of the year that's not considered the growing season. I noticed the azaleas have started coming out today as well, so everything seems about a week early.
Quoting 260. Chucktown:



Yes a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, but the total amount of water (liquid, solid, and vapor) on this planet is constant.


I don't get what this argument is supposed to be. Sure the water is finite, so what does that tell you when the atmosphere is showing an increasing trend in water vapor over time, mean sea levels are rising from both ice melt and thermal expansion, and glaciers are melting. There is no change in the amount of water, but there is in the phase of water.

I'll consult the magic 8 ball. Magic 8 Ball, is it the planet warming?


Quoting 262. BaltimoreBrian:



I have read that Death Valley is the only place in the United States to record lows over 100 F. On July 12, 2012 Death Valley had a low of 107.1 F That has to be close to the world record.

Thanks, Brian. And great reading list tonight (not that it's not good every night!). And special thanks for the article on the bees :)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Pretty remarkable. The nation's (Canada and the U.S.) couldn't be more divided between unseasonably cold and unseasonably warm weather.

Boston could keep adding to its snow total for at least a couple more weeks.

GFS for April 2


Looks a lot like April 1982.
Nothing new under the sun,enjoy the rest of night guys and gals.
Climate Change/Global Warming is REAL folks. Get used to it. It ain't going away anytime soon. It's not like the earth has a slight fever. Mother Earth is very sick and sooner or later we'll all start to feel the effects. In fact, we are already seeing the effects and they have been deadly.


Peace out
Quoting yoboi:


"CO2 concentration in the air aboard U.S. submarines is maintained at or below 8,000 ppm, about 20 times current atmospheric levels."

Maybe you missed the part where I was talking about submarines...So I put it in quotations again.....
So, 8000 ppm is equal to 8,000,000 parts per billion. Our current atmosphere is about 400 ppb, or 0.40 ppm. The Navy's 8,000 ppm figure is the limit for 90 day exposure. Short term emergency exposure of up to 40,000. Obviously, somewhere between our current 0.40 ppm and something like 5,000 ppm of CO2 is not going to kill us. That has nothing to with the atmospheric trapping of heat that's part of why we have global warming, but you already knew that, right???
Barbamz and other Europeans on the Bog... Looks like tomorrow you get a neat astrological treat.

http://www.wsj.com/video/solar-eclipse-offers-vie wers-a-celestial-treat/ACA91AAB-1C10-4C5B-8896-CAA CB731B1AF.html

Super Moon and Eclipse.
Quoting 271. sar2401:

So, 8000 ppm is equal to 8,000,000 parts per billion. Our current atmosphere is about 400 ppb, or 0.40 ppm. The Navy's 8,000 ppm figure is the limit for 90 day exposure. Short term emergency exposure of up to 40,000. Obviously, somewhere between our current 0.40 ppm and something like 5,000 ppm of CO2 is not going to kill us. That has nothing to with the atmospheric trapping of heat that's part of why we have global warming, but you already knew that, right???


8,000 is the level the alert sounds at, for clarification.
Snow in southern New England

1995/96

Hartford CT 115.2"
Boston MA 107.6"
Worcester Ma 132.9"
Providence RI 106.1"

Massachusetts snow severity index 14,300.04 (product of totals of Boston and Worcester)
Southern New England snow severity index 174,758,384.9 (product of totals of all four cities)

2014-15

Hartford CT 59.3"
Boston MA 108.6"
Worcester Ma 115.6"
Providence RI 73.5"

Massachusetts snow severity index 12,554.16
Southern New England snow severity index 54,717.934.07

Boston MA has had its snowiest season on record
Worcester MA is in third place
Providence RI is also in third place
Hartford CT not in top 10
Quoting 272. Dakster:

Barbamz and other Europeans on the Bog... Looks like tomorrow you get a neat astrological treat.

http://www.wsj.com/video/solar-eclipse-offers-vie wers-a-celestial-treat/ACA91AAB-1C10-4C5B-8896-CAA CB731B1AF.html

Super Moon and Eclipse.

See her post #229...she's letting us know if she doesn't show up tomorrow morning it could be due to grid problems over there from the eclipse
Labonbon - Thanks I will check it out. I was almost sure she would have posted something about it... I just didn't go back far enough I see.
Quoting 260. Chucktown:



Yes a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, but the total amount of water (liquid, solid, and vapor) on this planet is constant.


But its the re-distribution of that moisture and all its components that makes a significant difference as to how it affects all of earth's inhabitants. Rising sea levels as glaciers melt inundating coastal population centers, warmer oceans melting more sea ice, more atmospheric moisture from warming oceans leading to more extreme rainfall and flooding events, reinforcement of the atmospheric warming as more moisture retains heat energy, less polar ice altering earth's albedo thus enhancing the warming of the oceans, etc.

It all got started with the changing the composition of the earth's atmosphere and how it is able to help retain more heat within the global energy budget system. You know...basic atmospheric physics...something every meteorologist studied in college.

I learned all this stuff way back in the 1970's before global warming became such a controversial public debate subject and the anti-science campaign kicked in.

BaltimoreBrian - That article on HOT Alaska shows a lot of downtown Anchorage. It has been hot and weird here. Heck, today the high was 55F!

Kincaid Park is amazing. One of the truly great things about Alaska are all the parks and natural land around us. I hope that "climate change" doesn't destroy it. I hear that now it is called man influenced climate destabilization?
Okay, ladies and gents, it's been...fun(?)

I'm off to read some fiction. Yes, that's right...fiction...a nice make believe story that has nada to do w/ weather, the planet or science! Just good old fashioned escapism :)

Good night, all.

Quoting 279. Dakster:

BaltimoreBrian - That article on HOT Alaska shows a lot of downtown Anchorage. It has been hot and weird here. Heck, today the high was 55F!

Kincaid Park is amazing. One of the truly great things about Alaska are all the parks and natural land around us. I hope that "climate change" doesn't destroy it. I hear that now it is called man influenced climate destabilization?

TimSoCal earlier referred to it as 'That Which Shall Not Be Named' (in a reply to a post regarding states trying to control use of 'climate change' terminology)...I'm not sure whose posts were more humorous today - his or beell's...
Quoting 212. Chucktown:


No. First, I believe there is a lot of heat island effect issues and where temperatures are taken now versus 30 years ago. Second, I don't think satellite measurements are even close to actual thermometer readings (which again are biased warm with the heat island). Third, if there is some warming going on, its due to the cycles we are experiencing (PDO, AMO, solar, etc.) CO2 doubling in the last 100 years is not enough to alter the climate. It's a trace gas and always will be.
I cannot believe that someone with a university degree in meteorology would make such a ludicrous statement. You apparently don't even know that satellite lower troposphere temperature calculations are not the same as land and oceanic surface temperature readings, and that satellites don't actually measure temperatures, but rather use mathematical models to transform radiation measurements into temperature approximations. And that the the models have been revised and updated many times after inaccuracies were found.

Such comments by you demonstrate utter and complete ignorance of the findings of climate science - findings which have been re-examined and verified to the point of becoming unassailable facts. I can only conclude that your "beliefs" - which run counter to science - are based on ideological or political prejudices, and not on an understanding of science and data analysis.

Much research has been done on the UHIE, and arguably, the most notable analysis was done recently in 2013 by physicist and former AGW/CC skeptic Dr. Richard Muller and his team at Berkeley Earth. A significant portion of the funding for the study was from Charles Koch. Dr. Muller is no longer a skeptic, but he is still very conservative in his approach to climate science.

The Berkeley Earth projects are completely open and transparent. You can read the Berkeley Earth procedures for examining and analyzing the data,and also read the papers that were published andother findings from their research and analysis. You can even download the entire global datasets from land, ocean or combined data repositories - and analyze it yourself. (LINK)

Here is the Berkeley Earth's concise distilled summary of their findings on the urban heat island effect (UHIE):

Berkeley Earth also has carefully studied issues raised by skeptics, such as possible biases from urban heating, data selection, poor station quality, and data adjustment. We have demonstrated that these do not unduly bias the results.
There are many other easily located sources for real scientific information about the UHIE and how it is dealt with, as well as answers for many other skeptic questions. However, your apparent willingness to endlessly repeat debunked myths rather than doing a bit of research indicates that you are not interested in finding out the truth.

I would also suggest that you watch this the below BBC video - an excellent new documentary that is hosted by three British mathematicians. They discuss the reasons that inaccurate raw data must be adjusted or thrown out if it cannot be verified as accurate.


View on YouTube
284. beell
Bad Meteorology-The reason clouds form when air cools is because cold air cannot hold as much water vapor as warm air.

Be very, very careful what you put into that head,
because you will never, ever get it out.
Thomas Cardinal Wolsey (1471-1530)
Quoting 166. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






Hey, that's a cool beat!
Quoting yoboi:


Yeah I actually hope it will rise more....With the world population growing every second of every day....We will need additional C02 to provide record food crops too feed the globe...
OK, let's accept that some level of increased CO2 is good for plants. What's the ideal level got most plants? Do plants grow faster as the level of CO2 increases ad infinitum? Is the atmosphere the only source of CO2 available to plants? Will rising levels of CO2 offset rising temperatures? Not asking about the whole earth, let's just say it was your greenhouse. If the ventilation system failed and the greenhouse got too hot, will pumping in more CO2 offset the plant damage caused by higher temperatures?
Quoting 281. LAbonbon:


TimSoCal earlier referred to it as 'That Which Shall Not Be Named' (in a reply to a post regarding states trying to control use of 'climate change' terminology)...I'm not sure whose posts were more humorous today - his or beell's...


I used to live in and still technically work in the State of Florida... I haven't got the memo on how I am supposed to refer to it...
Yoboi, if as you say nitrogen and phosphorous are the limiting reagents in plant growth, then increased CO2 is no benefit to plants.
Quoting 289. Dakster:



I used to live in and still technically work in the State of Florida... I haven't got the memo on how I am supposed to refer to it...


Sorry, I forgot to CC you. :)
292. yoboi
Quoting 290. BaltimoreBrian:

Yoboi, if as you say nitrogen and phosphorous are the limiting reagents in plant growth, then increased CO2 is no benefit to plants.


Yes C02 plays a role but not the only thing concerning plant growth....
Seriously? Y'all are still arguing with Chucktown? This has been going on almost all day! Anyway, if you're in Europe (including barbamz the foreign wx correspondent), wake up early for the solar eclipse!
Quoting 291. Naga5000:



Sorry, I forgot to CC you. :)


I'll forgive you this time.... Just don't let it happen again...
Quoting 293. TimTheWxMan:

Seriously? Y'all are still arguing with Chucktown? This has been going on almost all day! Anyway, if you're in Europe (including barbamz the foreign wx correspondent), wake up early for the solar eclipse!


It breaks up the monotony of grading papers.
Quoting yoboi:


If the temperature rises by 1-2 degrees when the ventilation fails...Not much to worry about... it is nitrogen and phosphorous that are the limiting reagents in plant growth.....
Of course, but that's why I limited my question a greenhouse, not the entire earth. You can add way more heat and CO2 to a greenhouse than you can the globe but the principle remains the same. My question was if the temperature gets too hot, will adding more CO2 offset the effects of the higher temperature. The other two you mentioned are mineral nutrients. Hydrogen, oxygen and carbon are the three non-mineral nutrients that plants get from the air and water, and photosynthesis is what makes those three usable.
Quoting 295. Naga5000:



It breaks up the monotony of grading papers.
Wait you're a professor?
Here's your climate change in action. Large snakes surviving and thriving in the everglades... Eating alligators.

This isn't good. I know the good Dr. Masters like to blog and post about sea ice extent. Looks like the arctic started melting early and had low ice to begin with. This could be the year that a new minimum is reached.

http://www.adn.com/article/20150319/arctic-ice-me lt-season-underway-early

Link
Quoting Naga5000:


It breaks up the monotony of grading papers.
I'm still trying to wrap my head around why this eclipse is being portrayed as such a big deal for solar power in Europe in general and Germany in particular. Solar power only generates 7% of the grid power in Germany. The solar eclipse doesn't mean there's no solar generation, just less than what you've get from a perfectly clear day. I've seen predictions that the eclipse means a 30 gigawatt decrease in solar power. This only pencils out if you went from a plant generating a full load of clear day power to sudden darkness. Strangely enough, most of these predictions come from agencies that get in trouble if the grid doesn't function properly and companies selling things like grid automation software....kind of like Y2K! Man, I made a lot of money off that fiasco. At some point, like when Germany has 50% of their power come from solar, this might be a real issue but, for tomorrow, my forecast is...no problems. :-)
Quoting yoboi:


What is the method for getting C02 into your greenhouse????
No fair!!!! You have to answer my question before you're allowed to ask your own question.
Quoting 223. Naga5000:



I suggest standing in a room with 300 ppm of hydrogen sulfide in the air, report your findings on trace gases in about an hour.

Heat island is adjusted for in the data, both rural and urban stations show the same trend.

Satellite measurements don't measure surface temperature, they measure lower atmospheric temperature through microwaves, and have notoriously large issues with land height and clouds, they are not the same.

Those cycles move heat around, they do not create energy.

This is all basic stuff that is not in question.



What Chuck seems to not understand is that water vapor is also a trace gas (on average about 5000ppm), and yet without it we'd be living on a snowball.

The greenhouse effect of various gases have been known for well over a century. It's not even advanced science; you learn about this stuff in high school. Basic physics and chemistry.
Quoting 297. Tornado6042008X:

Wait you're a professor?


Graduate teaching associate. I get my own classes to teach, but no nifty title yet. This semester it's Animals and Society, a 3000 level medical sociology course.
Quoting 302. sar2401:

I'm still trying to wrap my head around why this eclipse is being portrayed as such a big deal for solar power in Europe in general and Germany in particular. Solar power only generates 7% of the grid power in Germany. The solar eclipse doesn't mean there's no solar generation, just less than what you've get from a perfectly clear day. I've seen predictions that the eclipse means a 30 gigawatt decrease in solar power. This only pencils out if you went from a plant generating a full load of clear day power to sudden darkness. Strangely enough, most of these predictions come from agencies that get in trouble if the grid doesn't function properly and companies selling things like grid automation software....kind of like Y2K! Man, I made a lot of money off that fiasco. At some point, like when Germany has 50% of their power come from solar, this might be a real issue but, for tomorrow, my forecast is...no problems. :-)


Eclipses have always brought doom and gloom forcasting. Society hasn't changed that much over the years. Before we worried about angering the gods, now we worry our power plants won't produce. Same differnece, I suppose.
After seeing this AGW discussion, (apart from keeping myself out of it, knowing chaos would ensue & escalate quickly w/ many of the pro-AGWers here), I think it's time for me to take a much needed break away from here for a while & get cracking on those 25 scientific papers that have been staring me in the face on my computer for the past week or so. I really hope I can knock out at least 5 of these this weekend...

I guess I shouldn't be greedy & I'll share some... :)

This paper was just published earlier this week on Monday in nature geoscience...

"Influence of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States"
Link

"Climate Prediction S & T Digest 39th NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Special Issue (Feb 2015)"
Link

"Understanding ENSO Physics-A Review"
Link

"North Pacific Gyre Oscillation"
Link




"ENSO and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation: an integrated view of the Pacific decadal dynamics"
Link


"A study on the decreasing trend in tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) and its impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall"
Link

"Impacts of canonical and Modoki El Nino on tropical Atlantic SST"
Link

"Viewing The Controversy Loschmidt-Boltzmann/Maxwell Through Macroscopic Measurements Of The Temperature Gradients In Vertical Columns Of Water"
Link



I found these next 4 papers (which aren't too technical comparatively speaking) just for you StormTrackerScott :)

They cover the evolution of El Nino events & how they relate to the MJO, downwelling Equatorial Kelvin Waves, etc, w/ a few case studies (1997-98 & 2002-03) thrown into the mix...

"Seasonal Dependence of the MJO-ENSO Relationship"
Link

"SST Anomalies of ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Equatorial Pacific"
Link

"Genesis and Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino"
Link

"Evolution of the 2002-03 El Nino"
Link
Quoting Dakster:
Here's your climate change in action. Large snakes surviving and thriving in the everglades... Eating alligators.

Hey Dak. It's hard to tell with that picture but it's been in circulation since at least 2005. The first time I saw it was after all the hurricanes in Florida, and how snakes supposedly were eating alligators since they already ate all the fish. As far as I can tell, it's an actual Burmese python eating a crocodile in Australia. That makes sense, since the pythons there get to 28 feet (!) long and freshwater crocs are generally smaller than American Alligators, especially the female crocs, which average about six feet.

Every time I see that picture, it reminds me of the poor guys doing search and recovery on that ValueJet crash into the Glades in 1996. We had an occasional shark show up on dives in the Pacific but at least we didn't have sharpshooters in boats waiting to plug 'em as they snuck up on us. Gives me the creeps just thinking about it.
Quoting 309. sar2401:

Hey Dak. It's hard to tell with that picture but it's been in circulation since at least 2005. The first time I saw it was after all the hurricanes in Florida, and how snakes supposedly were eating alligators since they already ate all the fish. As far as I can tell, it's an actual Burmese python eating a crocodile in Australia. That makes sense, since the pythons there get to 28 feet (!) long and freshwater crocs are generally smaller than American Alligators, especially the female crocs, which average about six feet.

Every time I see that picture, it reminds me of the poor guys doing search and recovery on that ValueJet crash into the Glades in 1996. We had an occasional shark show up on dives in the Pacific but at least we didn't have sharpshooters in boats waiting to plug 'em as they snuck up on us. Gives me the creeps just thinking about it.


I did search and rescue in Valuejet in the glades... I was a rookie officer back then - still in FTO phases. In fact, my FTO that I was with passed away a couple of years ago due to cancer. Anyways, I has just ended my tour when the plane went down. I heard the call go out on our radio as I hadn't been able to transfer yet. And back then you had to actually get on the radio to transfer. (Now you can do it via computer) I was then bumped to midnights and I was assigned to go out and help...

And we had a burmese python about 16' + in my neighborhood in Palmetto Bay... They are there and getting that big. They eat key deer whole too.
Quoting yoboi:


You are asking me about adding more C02...and yes the answer would depend with what method you are using to add C02....It would also be helpful are you doing this during the daytime or nighttime....
There are many CO2 generators available, as a Google search would tell you. Why would daytime or nighttime matter? Assuming the greenhouse was full of plants, you'd want to monitor the CO2 level at night since plants give off CO2 at night but, other than wasting money generating CO2 you don't need, why else would it matter?
Quoting 255. yoboi:



"CO2 concentration in the air aboard U.S. submarines is maintained at or below 8,000 ppm, about 20 times current atmospheric levels."

Maybe you missed the part where I was talking about submarines...So I put it in quotations again.....


No, it isn't maintained at 8000 ppm. Link

Since you probably won't even look at the document, here's a summary table from the opening section

2 to 3% (2000-3000ppm) Shortness of breath, deep breathing
5% (5000ppm) Breathing becomes heavy, sweating, pulse quickens
7.5% (7500ppm) Headaches, dizziness, restlessness, breathlessness, increased heart rate and blood pressure, visual distortion
10% (10,000 ppm) Impaired hearing, nausea, vomiting, loss of consciousness
30% (30,000ppm) Coma, convulsions, death

Cognitive abilities start declining before 1000 ppm and get worse with increasing concentrations.

So at 8000 ppm, like you claim, you're already having a bad time. On the bright side you probably won't know you're having a bad time due to the cognitive impairment.
Quoting Dakster:


I did search and rescue in Valuejet in the glades... I was a rookie officer back then - still in FTO phases. In fact, my FTO that I was with passed away a couple of years ago due to cancer. Anyways, I has just ended my tour when the plane went down. I heard the call go out on our radio as I hadn't been able to transfer yet. And back then you had to actually get on the radio to transfer. (Now you can do it via computer) I was then bumped to midnights and I was assigned to go out and help...

And we had a burmese python about 16' + in my neighborhood in Palmetto Bay... They are there and getting that big. They eat key deer whole too.
Holy cow! You were actually there? They didn't actually make you get in the water, did they? Hopefully, you were on the standing around detail. We had a couple of the guys from the Miami-Dade dive team give a presentation at the National Association for Search and Rescue convention in 1998. Even without the alligators and all the other things that bite out there, it still sounded like a horrendous operation.

The only remotely similar experience I had was a fatal private plane crash directly into a primary sewage treatment pond that was 17 feet deep. I don't mean the nice kinds of ponds, I mean the ones with brown trout floating around. Our WC had gotten a call from the plane owner's insurance company asking our dive team to attach some cables to the plane so their tow truck could pull it out. I thought he was kidding until he asked me how long it would take to get it out today. We had an hour of daylight left. I told him it would only take five minutes. When he asked why I could do it in such a short period of time, I told him it wouldn't even take that long if I could find a pen real fast and write out my letter of resignation. :-)
Quoting 306. Naga5000:

Graduate teaching associate. I get my own classes to teach, but no nifty title yet. This semester it's Animals and Society, a 3000 level medical sociology course.
By the way... 9.2mm of rain since march 1st...

Quoting 316. CaribBoy:

By the way... 9.2mm of rain since march 1st...




Hell, I'd take that......
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, it isn't maintained at 8000 ppm. Link

Since you probably won't even look at the document, here's a summary table from the opening section

2 to 3% (2000-3000ppm) Shortness of breath, deep breathing
5% (5000ppm) Breathing becomes heavy, sweating, pulse quickens
7.5% (7500ppm) Headaches, dizziness, restlessness, breathlessness, increased heart rate and blood pressure, visual distortion
10% (10,000 ppm) Impaired hearing, nausea, vomiting, loss of consciousness
30% (30,000ppm) Coma, convulsions, death

Cognitive abilities start declining before 1000 ppm and get worse with increasing concentrations.

So at 8000 ppm, like you claim, you're already having a bad time. On the bright side you probably won't know you're having a bad time due to the cognitive impairment.
No, those are NEPA limits for civilian workers, not for nuclear subs. 8,000 is the permitted long-term (a three month tour of duty) exposure. A submarine compensates for the higher exposure levels by pumping in more oxygen generated from on-board oxygen generator units. The permitted short term (30-60 minutes) exposure is up to 35,000 ppm as long as the O2 concentration is elevated. The long term limit used to be 10,000 ppm until it was lowered a couple of years ago. Some Navy medical officers argued that the 8,000 level was too low, and the higher limit (with enough oxygen) actually promoted more alertness when standing watch. Still, things have changed a lot from the days when the standard air quality test on a sub was if a cigarette would stay lit. :-)
I ran into this on Facebook just now and I smiled. Remind you guys of anyone? :)


Quoting yoboi:


When natural gas.. propane or kerosene is burned.. not only CO2 is produced.. but also heat is generated...
There are methods, like using a water cooled generator, that produce very little heat but, for the purpose of the question, let's assume it's perfect and doesn't produce any heat. This is the fourth time you've replied but you still haven't answered the question - will adding more CO2 to the greenhouse offset the effects of the higher temperature?
Quoting 235. Chucktown:

The law of conservation of energy.
This states that energy can be neither created nor destroyed. However, energy can change forms, and energy can flow from one place to another. The total energy of an isolated system does not change.

The Earth is not an isolated system. There is approximately 1,360 W/m^2 of incoming energy from the Sun at the top of the atmosphere. Multiply that by the area of the Earth's disk you get 173.5 billion megaWatts hitting the Earth 24/7. Fortunately most of that energy is cycled back off the Earth by various means. Without any greenhouse gases (primarily water vapor, CO2 and methane) in the atmosphere the surface temperature would be close to 0 degrees F but with them it's closer to 58 F because those gases impede the heat energy given off by the surface as it heads out of the atmosphere. The change in heat retention due to the increase in GHG's is about 2.9 W/m^2. Not much but enough to increase the average temperature on the surface of the Earth.
Quoting 314. sar2401:

Holy cow! You were actually there? They didn't actually make you get in the water, did they? Hopefully, you were on the standing around detail. We had a couple of the guys from the Miami-Dade dive team give a presentation at the National Association for Search and Rescue convention in 1998. Even without the alligators and all the other things that bite out there, it still sounded like a horrendous operation.

The only remotely similar experience I had was a fatal private plane crash directly into a primary sewage treatment pond that was 17 feet deep. I don't mean the nice kinds of ponds, I mean the ones with brown trout floating around. Our WC had gotten a call from the plane owner's insurance company asking our dive team to attach some cables to the plane so their tow truck could pull it out. I thought he was kidding until he asked me how long it would take to get it out today. We had an hour of daylight left. I told him it would only take five minutes. When he asked why I could do it in such a short period of time, I told him it wouldn't even take that long if I could find a pen real fast and write out my letter of resignation. :-)


That sounds really nasty... Pen... heck... I'd prick my finger and write it in blood if I had to.

Yep, I was actually there. I was not part of underwater recovery, but I wasn't on the standing around detail either. Sorta in between. Ended up having to go in because someone shot up a distress flare one night. I did a lot of guarding a remote boat ramp too. Everything I did was in the dark.

Watched a ranking officer looking into the water see 2 red eyes which appeared to be about 7" apart and he thought it was a small alligator. One of those, "watch this" comments came out and I left the area as he threw a rock in the water and a 10' gator came out thrashing around... I had to get far enough away so that when I was paralyzed laughing so hard I wouldn't be the one that got bit. And of course we did warn him that wasn't a small gator...

I don't think describing anything else would be blog appropriate....

Have you ever been to the memorial? I have a few times. Way out west off Tamiami Trail.
It was colder than normal in Alabama.
A couple interesting items:
www.terradaily.com/reports/Predicting_which_Afric an_storms_will_intensify_into_hurricanes_999.html
www.terradaily.com/reports/Frequency_of_tornadoes _hail_linked_to_El_Nino_La_Nina_999.html
(Preview Comment incorrectly shows spaces in those addresses; there aren't any)
Quoting 274. BaltimoreBrian:

Snow in southern New England

1995/96

Hartford CT 115.2"
Boston MA 107.6"
Worcester Ma 132.9"
Providence RI 106.1"

Massachusetts snow severity index 14,300.04 (product of totals of Boston and Worcester)
Southern New England snow severity index 174,758,384.9 (product of totals of all four cities)

2014-15

Hartford CT 59.3"
Boston MA 108.6"
Worcester Ma 115.6"
Providence RI 73.5"

Massachusetts snow severity index 12,554.16
Southern New England snow severity index 54,717.934.07

Boston MA has had its snowiest season on record
Worcester MA is in third place
Providence RI is also in third place
Hartford CT not in top 10


All true statements. Snow in 1995 and 1996 was spread over three months, not four weeks.
GFS has a high of 61 & low of 49 in Orlando for March 31st with freezes that night just north of the FL/GA line. Very significant blast of Arctic air is showing up on all the models to end out March. Thank the record MJO for this for causing the Jetstream to buckle in such a extreme fashion.

Another thing to note this SOI crash will also continue to causing weather patterns across the Eastern US to favor below normal temps going forward except FL of course as we should stay near normal to just above normal but also should see a lot more rain as well the next few weeks.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 20 Mar 2015



Average for last 30 days

-7.6



Average for last 90 days

-7.6



Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-31.2



Quoting trunkmonkey:


More Federal Government intervention!
Yeah, how dare the government put public health and safety ahead of corporate profits. Who do they think they are, anyway?! We want our pollution, and we want it now!!!
Quoting 314. sar2401:

Holy cow! You were actually there? They didn't actually make you get in the water, did they? Hopefully, you were on the standing around detail. We had a couple of the guys from the Miami-Dade dive team give a presentation at the National Association for Search and Rescue convention in 1998. Even without the alligators and all the other things that bite out there, it still sounded like a horrendous operation.

The only remotely similar experience I had was a fatal private plane crash directly into a primary sewage treatment pond that was 17 feet deep. I don't mean the nice kinds of ponds, I mean the ones with brown trout floating around. Our WC had gotten a call from the plane owner's insurance company asking our dive team to attach some cables to the plane so their tow truck could pull it out. I thought he was kidding until he asked me how long it would take to get it out today. We had an hour of daylight left. I told him it would only take five minutes. When he asked why I could do it in such a short period of time, I told him it wouldn't even take that long if I could find a pen real fast and write out my letter of resignation. :-)

My part-time job was working for Interspiro Air Pak company they owned Divator MarkVIII full face dive system that was used in this recovery, Intersprio gave Miami- Dade several units to use in this operation, I was given briefings on the operation, those guys who responded to this incident had my respect many adversities including PTSD, HAZ-Mat, and injuries, hats off to these Hero's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Naga5000:


Graduate teaching associate. I get my own classes to teach, but no nifty title yet. This semester it's Animals and Society, a 3000 level medical sociology course.


I thought you were a scientist?
Good morning and - yessss! - the sun, us and our grid made it through the eclipse!

Here some of my - *cough* - awesome shots from Mainz (near Frankfurt) at Schiller Square with its permanent carnival art. Cloudless sky but hazy because of some smog, and the light was really gloomy, albeit the sun didn't stop to shine at our latitude.


Did this guy catch the eclipse in his lantern? Actually he got it ...


Those folks are celebrating the eclipse as well, just believe me ...


And --- with some technical help: Here it is! In the middle of the screen, mirror-inverted though. You can see it??


Best I could do with my small camera, borrowing eclipse glasses from some folks for some seconds and holding them in front of the lens, lol.

BBC: 'Breathtaking' solar eclipse witnessed by millions. With photos.
Quote from this article: Oxford University scientists, meanwhile, are using the event to try to understand how eclipses affect electricity grids. The deep shadow will have reduced the output from solar panels, which now supply a significant proportion of power needs right across Europe. The researchers will look to see how this dip in performance impacted the stability of grid networks.
Quoting 301. Dakster:

This isn't good. I know the good Dr. Masters like to blog and post about sea ice extent. Looks like the arctic started melting early and had low ice to begin with. This could be the year that a new minimum is reached.

http://www.adn.com/article/20150319/arctic-ice-me lt-season-underway-early

Link Not really, the Arctic has been ice free many times in the past.
Quoting 310. Dakster:



I did search and rescue in Valuejet in the glades... I was a rookie officer back then - still in FTO phases. In fact, my FTO that I was with passed away a couple of years ago due to cancer. Anyways, I has just ended my tour when the plane went down. I heard the call go out on our radio as I hadn't been able to transfer yet. And back then you had to actually get on the radio to transfer. (Now you can do it via computer) I was then bumped to midnights and I was assigned to go out and help...

And we had a burmese python about 16' + in my neighborhood in Palmetto Bay... They are there and getting that big. They eat key deer whole too. Their are a lot of exotic animals that live in the Everglades, but it has nothing to do with climate change.

Quoting 333. jrweatherman:



I thought you were a scientist?
He never said that.
Quoting 328. StormTrackerScott:

GFS has a high of 61 & low of 49 in Orlando for March 31st with freezes that night just north of the FL/GA line. Very significant blast of Arctic air is showing up on all the models to end out March. Thank the record MJO for this for causing the Jetstream to buckle in such a extreme fashion.




Morning Scott, did you have any thunderstorms by you yesterday? It looked like some were trying to form in your area around 6:30 or so.
Quoting NativeSun:
Not really, the Arctic has been ice free many times in the past.
How recently? What caused it to be ice free in the past? How many humans were on the planet at the time? How many hundreds of millions of people lived in and around the planet's large coastal cities? How many trillions of dollars of vital infrastructure were submerged the last time the ice melted and seas rose?

Denial is so very tiring...
Quoting 338. KoritheMan:


He never said that.


Also many scientists teach. Someone apparently thinking the two are somehow mutually exclusive is weird to me.
Quoting 333. jrweatherman:



I thought you were a scientist?


I'm working on my doctorate in sociology. I have published papers and presented at conferences. That makes me a sociologist or social scientist by any definition. No white lab coat or protective eye wear in my department. :)
Quoting 328. StormTrackerScott:

GFS has a high of 61 & low of 49 in Orlando for March 31st with freezes that night just north of the FL/GA line. Very significant blast of Arctic air is showing up on all the models to end out March. Thank the record MJO for this for causing the Jetstream to buckle in such a extreme fashion.



The time stamp on the model run you posted is 11 days from now, yet the wording you use in the post implies it's happening now. Models are one thing, reality is another. Reality is difficult to model, and surely the need to feel that models are gospel becomes problematic at some point.
Quoting 283. Xulonn:

.

Such comments by you demonstrate utter and complete ignorance of the findings of climate science - findings which have been re-examined and verified to the point of becoming unassailable facts. I can only conclude that your "beliefs" - which run counter to science - are based on ideological or political prejudices, and not on an understanding of science and data analysis.




It is called Morton’s Demon.
Good day from the rockin' 'n rollin' Virgin Islands

Lovely sunny with a few clouds and an added 4.6 earthquake kind of day on the island this morning. First time I've ever experienced an earthquake in a car at a red light. Very strange feeling!

Hope all is well with everyone

Lindy


And 3-5" (isolated 4-6") is expected across this area over the next couple days.
348. flsky
Please don't post if you have nothing to add.
Quoting 336. NativeSun:


349. yoboi
Quoting 320. sar2401:

There are methods, like using a water cooled generator, that produce very little heat but, for the purpose of the question, let's assume it's perfect and doesn't produce any heat. This is the fourth time you've replied but you still haven't answered the question - will adding more CO2 to the greenhouse offset the effects of the higher temperature?


Adding 0.038% will not change things much to the greenhouse.....
It seems the models underestimated the CAD over the Mid-Atlantic a bit as the 0C 850mb line still looks a bit farther south than where the global models had it. We've had some impressive snow bands move through. Definitely a nice scene out.
Quoting 172. georgevandenberghe:



My old cynical saying at PSU in 1979-81 about trough posiition was "three days in the West, three weeks in the East". And somehow I failed to notice this as much during graduate study at FSU. Wonder why!

Nope this is not new. We are locked into a western ridge, eastern trough pattern as has happened before and will happen again.

I think AGW is going to harm us through much more malevolent and disruptive mechanisms (species extinction, agricultural disaster sea level rise, ocean acidification) than just changing short term weather patterns. It's happening. Most bad weather isn't a sign of it.


Just wondering. I have seen presentations that say a greenland block/eastermU.S. trough will become more of the standard. Most of the planet above average with eastern U.S. below average temps.
Quoting 318. sar2401:

No, those are NEPA limits for civilian workers, not for nuclear subs. 8,000 is the permitted long-term (a three month tour of duty) exposure. A submarine compensates for the higher exposure levels by pumping in more oxygen generated from on-board oxygen generator units. The permitted short term (30-60 minutes) exposure is up to 35,000 ppm as long as the O2 concentration is elevated. The long term limit used to be 10,000 ppm until it was lowered a couple of years ago. Some Navy medical officers argued that the 8,000 level was too low, and the higher limit (with enough oxygen) actually promoted more alertness when standing watch. Still, things have changed a lot from the days when the standard air quality test on a sub was if a cigarette would stay lit. :-)


Where is source of information for this? Every document I've come across on the subject, including those from the NHRC says submarine atmospheres are kept to 1000 ppm or less. Physiological issues start arising once you get beyond that level without a subsequent balance of oxygen to counter it. CO2 displaces O2, so in order to keep relative ratios within tolerance you'd need to replace 1% N2 with 1% O2 for 1% of CO2 increase. So if, as you say, the atmospheric level is 8000ppm (or 8%) then at a minimum the oxygen level is 29% which would appear to be rather risky in a closed metal tube.

The "increased alertness" would come from increased oxygen intake, which would happen with weak air circulation. If the air isn't constantly being moved and mixed, CO2 will sink. Extreme examples of this happen even when not in a submarine, such as when depressions near active geological vents pool CO2 and become invisible death traps for anything strolling in.

Quoting 349. yoboi:



Adding 0.038% will not change things much to the greenhouse.....


.038% of what? Increasing CO2 from 280 ppm to 400 ppm is about a 43% increase in CO2.
Quoting ACSeattle:

The time stamp on the model run you posted is 11 days from now, yet the wording you use in the post implies it's happening now. Models are one thing, reality is another. Reality is difficult to model, and surely the need to feel that models are gospel becomes problematic at some point.


That's why I disagree when he forecastsbusing long range models. Throwing a long range model run on here and treating it as fact or gospel is wrong because we all know it will dramatically change. Big difference putting up a long range model to show a porential trend in the atmosphere.
Addition to post #334:

European power grids keep lights on through solar eclipse
Reuters, By Vera Eckert, FRANKFURT Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:11am EDT
Electrical grids in Europe claimed success on Friday in managing the unprecedented disruption to solar power from a 2-1/2-hour eclipse that brought sudden, massive drops in supply.
Germany, Europe's biggest economy, at the heart of the event, boasts the world's biggest solar-powered installations, which last year supplied 6 percent of national power requirements.
The initial 13 gigawatts (GW) drop in Germany was less than operators had feared and they were able to draw on alternative power sources including coal, gas, biogas and hydroelectric energy pumped from storage. ..


As it happened: Germany's grid grapples with solar eclipse
PV Magazine, 20. March 2015 | | By: Michael Fuhs
With bright blue skies overhead and with over 38 GW of PV capacity currently connected to Germany's grids, today's solar eclipse was always going to be a test. pv magazine live blogged throughout the historic event, see how it unfolded.
The SPC has introduced a 15% severe weather area for Tuesday. Shear and instability should be sufficient, but dewpoints and lapse rates are marginal based on model guidance, and it looks like there could be a sturdy cap. In other words, a low-end threat.

Quoting 349. yoboi:



Adding 0.038% will not change things much to the greenhouse.....


Of course not. The atmospheric volume of your greenhouse is microscopic compared the volume of the atmosphere. The heat is being trapped by the glass, which if I may remind you is microscopically thin compared to the thickness of the atmosphere.

In fact, if I were to use your reasoning I could argue that it's impossible for greenhouse glass to cause heating because it is so thin compared to the atmosphere. But that's just stupid, isn't it?

It's almost like a greenhouse and a planetary climate system are completely different things.

Ones beliefs does not affects CO2's ability to absorb IR radiation.

Pass da tabasco please'
Quoting 355. jrweatherman:



That's why I disagree when he forecastsbusing long range models. Throwing a long range model run on here and treating it as fact or gospel is wrong because we all know it will dramatically change. Big difference putting up a long range model to show a porential trend in the atmosphere.


Let me get you straight. First off I said that is what the GFS was showing for a high and low doesn't mean it will occur, secondly there is agreement that there will be a cool down for the eastern US infact according to some in the met field it could be record cold. Read it and weep!

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 3h 3 hours ago
Record heat in store for Cali & SW while record cold to develop over the East. #Extremes. Matches my subseasonal


From JB

THE EPIC EASTERN WINTER OF 14-15...FINISH STRONG
March 20 09:06 AM


For which of you, desiring to build a tower, does not first sit down and count the cost, whether he has enough to complete it? Otherwise, when he has laid a foundation and is not able to finish, all who see it begin to mock him, saying, %u2018This man began to build and was not able to finish.
Luke 14 28-30
By now most of you that follow me know that as much as I lover the weather, I see bigger things in it. And you dont have to agree, ( I certainly respect that, for just the weather itself is great) but as for me, I think that there are lessons beyond the sheer agony and ecstacy that the fierce love we all have for this can bring. I certainly understand the opinion of those that say to me, just shut up and give me the weather. Its fine. But like it seems like everything in a weather pattern has something that drives it.. and when you get to that, you then see there is something behind that, I often try to sit back and think what is the real lesson behind this.
It is really ironic that this comes up. Its sort of like a wrestling tournament where the further into the tournament you get, the more everything is of more importance. And there is a saying 2cnd place is first loser. The point is that the end sometimes will destroy or enhance all that has come before it. And its important to finish strong. Finish at full speed. I cant tell you how many times there is a bad taste in my mouth when I have blown and end game to a forecast period. Its like chess.. The end game is many times the game
And so this period is hugely important to me. It was very important some visible sign of what we said at the end of February came back. And to be selfish, prideful, ect ( the ugly side of me) I want it to be driven home so hard and so strong, that it leaves no doubt. Not only for me, but for the guys I work with cause I believe we have the leanest, meanest most focused group top to bottom in the business.. We may not be a massive army, but I think we are like a seal team, or Army Ranger team.
So to get to the point. This winter is going to finish strong. The next 20 days will see the cold evolve west. There is a chance in the day 7-10 period now that this really drives home the point. The threat of the trough during that period amplifying in a way where cold comes and then a part of the trough that is lagging can really amplify would really drive this home. It would lead to late season snows all the way to I-40 perhaps east of the Mississippi, and with cold coming with and after the situation, the likelihood of record cold.
If we look at the day 6.5 we see a bit of disconnect in the trough axis and the hint at ridging getting out in front of the main ridge in western Canada
As Patrap would say pffft!
I have no idea where this person was recording his data, but for this area, this has been the coldest February in Connecticut since I moved here in 2000. Not even close, this was by far the coldest, much of the month, night time temperatures dipped to lower teens and/or single digits. Daytime highs never hit 40 degrees during the entire month. Normally during the month of February, we would get a couple days where it might even get up into the 50s and even a rare 60 degree day, not this year. So do not tell me about the warmest February on record. My heating bill will prove me out too!
I have no idea where this person was recording his data, but for this area, this has been the coldest February in Connecticut since I moved here in 2000. Not even close, this was by far the coldest, much of the month, night time temperatures dipped to lower teens and/or single digits. Daytime highs never hit 40 degrees during the entire month. Normally during the month of February, we would get a couple days where it might even get up into the 50s and even a rare 60 degree day, not this year. So do not tell me about the warmest February on record. My heating bill will prove me out too!

I have no idea where this person was recording his data,




Gee,, u should have stopped after the first sentence bro'

LOL
Quoting 364. PakItOldSaybrook:

I have no idea where this person was recording his data, but for this area, this has been the coldest February in Connecticut since I moved here in 2000. Not even close, this was by far the coldest, much of the month, night time temperatures dipped to lower teens and/or single digits. Daytime highs never hit 40 degrees during the entire month. Normally during the month of February, we would get a couple days where it might even get up into the 50s and even a rare 60 degree day, not this year. So do not tell me about the warmest February on record. My heating bill will prove me out too!


It's really only the Eastern US across the whole Northern Hemisphere that has seen the extreme cold of this Winter as the rest of the Northern Hemisphere has been much warmer than average. Just ask Dakster In Alaska where its been 55 plus for many days already.
Quoting 365. PakItOldSaybrook:

I have no idea where this person was recording his data, but for this area, this has been the coldest February in Connecticut since I moved here in 2000. Not even close, this was by far the coldest, much of the month, night time temperatures dipped to lower teens and/or single digits. Daytime highs never hit 40 degrees during the entire month. Normally during the month of February, we would get a couple days where it might even get up into the 50s and even a rare 60 degree day, not this year. So do not tell me about the warmest February on record. My heating bill will prove me out too!


Holy smokes, are you serious? Maybe try reading the entire blog before putting such a stupid comment out there. I don't even know why I'm responding to this drivel.
Quoting 366. Patrap:

Gee,,

LOL




It was time to put the puppy to bed.
Quoting 360. StormTrackerScott:



Let me get you straight. First off I said that is what the GFS was showing for a high and low doesn't mean it will occur, secondly there is agreement that there will be a cool down for the eastern US infact according to some in the met field it could be record cold. Read it and weep!

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 3h 3 hours ago
Record heat in store for Cali & SW while record cold to develop over the East. #Extremes. Matches my subseasonal


From JB

THE EPIC EASTERN WINTER OF 14-15...FINISH STRONG
March 20 09:06 AM


For which of you, desiring to build a tower, does not first sit down and count the cost, whether he has enough to complete it? Otherwise, when he has laid a foundation and is not able to finish, all who see it begin to mock him, saying, %u2018This man began to build and was not able to finish.
Luke 14 28-30
By now most of you that follow me know that as much as I lover the weather, I see bigger things in it. And you dont have to agree, ( I certainly respect that, for just the weather itself is great) but as for me, I think that there are lessons beyond the sheer agony and ecstacy that the fierce love we all have for this can bring. I certainly understand the opinion of those that say to me, just shut up and give me the weather. Its fine. But like it seems like everything in a weather pattern has something that drives it.. and when you get to that, you then see there is something behind that, I often try to sit back and think what is the real lesson behind this.
It is really ironic that this comes up. Its sort of like a wrestling tournament where the further into the tournament you get, the more everything is of more importance. And there is a saying 2cnd place is first loser. The point is that the end sometimes will destroy or enhance all that has come before it. And its important to finish strong. Finish at full speed. I cant tell you how many times there is a bad taste in my mouth when I have blown and end game to a forecast period. Its like chess.. The end game is many times the game
And so this period is hugely important to me. It was very important some visible sign of what we said at the end of February came back. And to be selfish, prideful, ect ( the ugly side of me) I want it to be driven home so hard and so strong, that it leaves no doubt. Not only for me, but for the guys I work with cause I believe we have the leanest, meanest most focused group top to bottom in the business.. We may not be a massive army, but I think we are like a seal team, or Army Ranger team.
So to get to the point. This winter is going to finish strong. The next 20 days will see the cold evolve west. There is a chance in the day 7-10 period now that this really drives home the point. The threat of the trough during that period amplifying in a way where cold comes and then a part of the trough that is lagging can really amplify would really drive this home. It would lead to late season snows all the way to I-40 perhaps east of the Mississippi, and with cold coming with and after the situation, the likelihood of record cold.
If we look at the day 6.5 we see a bit of disconnect in the trough axis and the hint at ridging getting out in front of the main ridge in western Canada


What makes me weep is that anybody takes JB seriously
Quoting 369. StormTrackerScott:



It was time to put the puppy to bed.


Scott, any thunderstorms by you yesterday? It looked like some small, but strong storms were forming near your area around 6:30 last night.
Quoting 371. tampabaymatt:



Scott, any thunderstorms by you yesterday? It looked like some small, but strong storms were forming near your area around 6:30 last night.


There was a inversion at 700mb which prohibited thunderstorm growth so all we were left with was low top heavy rain showers. No rain at my place AGAIN but just west of Disney they had between 2" to 3" of rain. Today more showers are expected to pop but only from Orlando area east as a odd looking Dry line is expected to set up across Lake County with dewpoints 70 to 75 here and 55 to 60 around the Tampa Bay area. Very strange set up today.
Quoting 366. Patrap:


I have no idea where this person was recording his data,




Gee,, u should have stopped after the first sentence bro'

LOL



He should have stopped after the 4th word.
Quoting 370. ACSeattle:


What makes me weep is that anybody takes JB seriously


First off most people in the weather community see a nice buckle in jet across the Eastern US at day 10 which could have some really cold air with it. This forecast isn't just coming from JB.
I have no idea where this person was recording his data, but for this area, this has been the coldest February in Connecticut since I moved here in 2000. Not even close, this was by far the coldest, much of the month, night time temperatures dipped to lower teens and/or single digits. Daytime highs never hit 40 degrees during the entire month. Normally during the month of February, we would get a couple days where it might even get up into the 50s and even a rare 60 degree day, not this year. So do not tell me about the warmest February on record. My heating bill will prove me out too!



why is it that we have communication resources that allow us to interact with people all over the world....yet when we talk about global warming.....we cant see past our back yard
Landscapes out West are being devastated by drought and Bark Beetle infestations. Western states like Montana are losing Billions of trees to this Bark Beetle infestation. Trees do modify the climate and meso and microscale weather systems. This winter has been extreme with the persistent ridge out West and the highly amplified trough in the East. I am not saying that an insect caused all of this, however, these beetles are affecting a large region of the West.
Quoting PakItOldSaybrook:
I have no idea where this person was recording his data, but for this area, this has been the coldest February in Connecticut since I moved here in 2000. Not even close, this was by far the coldest, much of the month, night time temperatures dipped to lower teens and/or single digits. Daytime highs never hit 40 degrees during the entire month. Normally during the month of February, we would get a couple days where it might even get up into the 50s and even a rare 60 degree day, not this year. So do not tell me about the warmest February on record. My heating bill will prove me out too!


So.. because it was cold in Connecticut = cold throughout the entire northern hemisphere?
Quoting 341. SeriouslySushi:


Also many scientists teach. Someone apparently thinking the two are somehow mutually exclusive is weird to me.

To be fair, anyone who hasn't gone to college, or who attended an institution where research isn't regularly conducted, may not be aware of the dual role professors fill. (And that's at least 60% of the U.S.)

Quoting 344. ACSeattle:


The time stamp on the model run you posted is 11 days from now, yet the wording you use in the post implies it's happening now. Models are one thing, reality is another. Reality is difficult to model, and surely the need to feel that models are gospel becomes problematic at some point.

His post started with "GFS has a high of 61 & low of 49 in Orlando for March 31st ", so he was clear that it was in the future.

Quoting 345. JohnLonergan:



It is called Morton’s Demon.

Very cool...yet disconcerting...
@364, 365
I don't understand. There are pictures and everything...
Quoting 353. Xyrus2000:



Where is source of information for this? Every document I've come across on the subject, including those from the NHRC says submarine atmospheres are kept to 1000 ppm or less. Physiological issues start arising once you get beyond that level without a subsequent balance of oxygen to counter it. CO2 displaces O2, so in order to keep relative ratios within tolerance you'd need to replace 1% N2 with 1% O2 for 1% of CO2 increase. So if, as you say, the atmospheric level is 8000ppm (or 8%) then at a minimum the oxygen level is 29% which would appear to be rather risky in a closed metal tube.

The "increased alertness" would come from increased oxygen intake, which would happen with weak air circulation. If the air isn't constantly being moved and mixed, CO2 will sink. Extreme examples of this happen even when not in a submarine, such as when depressions near active geological vents pool CO2 and become invisible death traps for anything strolling in.



8000ppm is .8% not 8%. On WWII submarines concentrations could go up to 2% during long dives and 4% was believed lethal. I do not know the physiology of increased C02 concentration beyond that it increases breathing rates since CO2 concentration in the blood is what triggers automatic breathing, NOT 02 saturation. C02 becomes lethal at concentrations below where O2 displacement is an issue, at 4% concentration O2 would become 20% rather than 21% of the air and the O2 partial pressure change would be comparable to going up about 1500 feet.

However the amount of IR radiation emitted from the atmosphere by C02 is substantial and scales almost linearly with concentration at our concentration levels. Concentration has already increased about 25% in my lifetime. Water vapor is still the primary emitter in most regions and emission is not linear with that gas's concentration because concentrations, esp. in warm regions are high enough that the atmosphere appears opaque to IR at the wavelengths water vapor is active. An analog is adding another layer of bricks to a wall. The wall is not much less transparant when the second layer is added.

Water vapor is transparant to some IR (So is C02 at different wavelengths) otherwise the earth would be a hotter place.
Quoting 375. ricderr:

I have no idea where this person was recording his data, but for this area, this has been the coldest February in Connecticut since I moved here in 2000. Not even close, this was by far the coldest, much of the month, night time temperatures dipped to lower teens and/or single digits. Daytime highs never hit 40 degrees during the entire month. Normally during the month of February, we would get a couple days where it might even get up into the 50s and even a rare 60 degree day, not this year. So do not tell me about the warmest February on record. My heating bill will prove me out too!



why is it that we have communication resources that allow us to interact with people all over the world....yet when we talk about global warming.....we cant see past our back yard


LOL! That was a good one Ric.
Quoting 375. ricderr:

I have no idea where this person was recording his data, but for this area, this has been the coldest February in Connecticut since I moved here in 2000. Not even close, this was by far the coldest, much of the month, night time temperatures dipped to lower teens and/or single digits. Daytime highs never hit 40 degrees during the entire month. Normally during the month of February, we would get a couple days where it might even get up into the 50s and even a rare 60 degree day, not this year. So do not tell me about the warmest February on record. My heating bill will prove me out too!



why is it that we have communication resources that allow us to interact with people all over the world....yet when we talk about global warming.....we cant see past our back yard


It's know as "global" warming, not Connecticut warming.
Quoting 370. ACSeattle:


What makes me weep is that anybody takes JB seriously


When I knew him Joe Bastardi was an excellent weather forecaster. He should be taken very seriously on
any forecast out to the deterministic predictability limit of ten days.
Deleted post - updated radar loop further up the blog
385. yoboi
Quoting 375. ricderr:

I have no idea where this person was recording his data, but for this area, this has been the coldest February in Connecticut since I moved here in 2000. Not even close, this was by far the coldest, much of the month, night time temperatures dipped to lower teens and/or single digits. Daytime highs never hit 40 degrees during the entire month. Normally during the month of February, we would get a couple days where it might even get up into the 50s and even a rare 60 degree day, not this year. So do not tell me about the warmest February on record. My heating bill will prove me out too!



why is it that we have communication resources that allow us to interact with people all over the world....yet when we talk about global warming.....we cant see past our back yard


It's called Regional Hypnosis.....I observe it all the time concerning the Arctic region.....
Quoting 372. StormTrackerScott:



There was a inversion at 700mb which prohibited thunderstorm growth so all we were left with was low top heavy rain showers. No rain at my place AGAIN but just west of Disney they had between 2" to 3" of rain. Today more showers are expected to pop but only from Orlando area east as a odd looking Dry line is expected to set up across Lake County with dewpoints 70 to 75 here and 55 to 60 around the Tampa Bay area. Very strange set up today.


A nasty looking storm formed just to the east of my location yesterday, and dribbled east before fizzling out, so it missed me. Hopefully Monday brings some rain. I have had to run my sprinklers for double the time I usually do in full sun areas this week to combat the heat stress. Amazing how fast things dry up here when it heats up.
Quoting 375. ricderr:

I have no idea where this person was recording his data, but for this area, this has been the coldest February in Connecticut since I moved here in 2000. Not even close, this was by far the coldest, much of the month, night time temperatures dipped to lower teens and/or single digits. Daytime highs never hit 40 degrees during the entire month. Normally during the month of February, we would get a couple days where it might even get up into the 50s and even a rare 60 degree day, not this year. So do not tell me about the warmest February on record. My heating bill will prove me out too!



why is it that we have communication resources that allow us to interact with people all over the world....yet when we talk about global warming.....we cant see past our back yard


Au contraire. It's cold across the street too!
Arrogance and pride at work :).
Quoting 374. StormTrackerScott:



First off most people in the weather community see a nice buckle in jet across the Eastern US at day 10 which could have some really cold air with it. This forecast isn't just coming from JB.

I sincerely hope that "most people in the weather community" know that model runs ten days out are not very reliable
Quoting 379. SeriouslySushi:

@364, 365
I don't understand. There are pictures and everything...

LOL

It seems that people think 'warmest' or 'warm month' means it should apply to every location...maybe? I don't get it either, but every time there's a post of this nature, someone from the bluish-purple area chimes it with a 'wait, not here it isn't!' And their assumption seems to be that Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson was referring to their location, too. I'm not sure that the map actually registers...
Quoting 360. StormTrackerScott:



Let me get you straight. First off I said that is what the GFS was showing for a high and low doesn't mean it will occur, secondly there is agreement that there will be a cool down for the eastern US infact according to some in the met field it could be record cold.

My apologies. I thought you were forecasting it. When in fact you were not, you are just simply repeating what others believe. Got it now.
Quoting 389. ACSeattle:


I sincerely hope that "most people in the weather community" know that model runs ten days out are not very reliable


They do but there is reasoning behind for what maybe coming down the pike. That magnitude of the MJO we just had is going to cause a deep trough in the East in the 8 to 10 day range. How cold will it but is up in there air.

Quoting georgevandenberghe:


When I knew him Joe Bastardi was an excellent weather forecaster. He should be taken very seriously on
any forecast out to the deterministic predictability limit of ten days.
You must have known him a really long time ago, back before he became stricken by a chronic case of ideology-induced fecal encephalopathy. He's a decent weather forecaster, I guess, though I don't think terms such as "excellent" or "taken seriously" are applicable. But you're correct in one thing: he's best ignored once speaking of things more than a week or so out, as he's demonstrated absolutely no skill whatsoever beyond that point.
I sincerely hope that "most people in the weather community" know that model runs ten days out are not very reliable

10 day models re gospel....especially come hurricane season :-)
Quoting 283. Xulonn:

Xulonn, this was an excellent summary of the work done at Berkeley Earth.

And thanks for posting the new BBC documentary - haven't seen it before, so it gets put in the queue!
Quoting 394. Neapolitan:

You must have known him a really long time ago, back before he became stricken by a chronic case of ideology-induced fecal encephalopathy. He's a decent weather forecaster, I guess, though I don't think terms such as "excellent" or "taken seriously" are applicable. But you're correct in one thing: he's best ignored once speaking of things more than a week or so out, as he's demonstrated absolutely no skill whatsoever beyond that point.


That's just ridiculous Nea. Does he hype sometimes yes but he does tend give you a indication in advance of what is coming. Fact is there are many mets who see a pattern change coming in the 8 to 10 day range overall specifics should be ignored yes but a deep trough is likely to set up east of the Mississippi.
Quoting 393. TropicalAnalystwx13:




LOL. Nice one TA13
Ahhhh........Comic relief on da blog.:)........Bastardi is the Morton Downy Jr. of weather.....The models are improving...once they get the quantum computers up and running, the accuracy rate should improve considerably....:)
per Twitter
They know their drinks are cool!



Taiwan Further Restricts Water Amid Record Drought

Total rainfall between October and February was the lowest since record-keeping began in 1947, according to Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau. It forecasts a “high probability” for drier weather in the coming quarter, the water agency said. ………………………….. Charles Kao, chairman of Taoyuan-based Inotera Memories Inc. and president of Nanya Technology Corp, Taiwan’s biggest memory-chipmakers, said by phone that companies will be “in trouble” if Shihmen Reservoir becomes completely dry.

“It’s estimated that the reservoir has about a 40-day of water supply left,” Kao said. At present, companies can use auxiliary water in plants to compensate for a 10% supply cut, he said.


Link
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That's just ridiculous Nea. Does he hype sometimes yes but he does tend give you a indication in advance of what is coming. Fact is there are many mets who see a pattern change coming in the 8 to 10 day range overall specifics should be ignored yes but a deep trough is likely to set up east of the Mississippi.


Long range models (6-10 days) can be fairly accurate when looking at general weather patterns.

Now trying to make an accurate local weather forecast (Ex. rain with a high of 55 for Atlanta)10 days in advance is setting yourself up for failure.

But so far this season, the models have done a pretty good job of prediction the cold weather in the Northeast and the extremely warm weather out West well in advance.

I think it was me and Dakster or Keeper (can't remember who - pretty sure Keeper) that were discussing the current cold weather and snow that is now affecting the mid Atlantic and Northeast about two weeks ago.

Ahhhh........Comic relief on da blog.:)........Bastardi is the Morton Downy Jr. of weather.....The models are improving...once they get the quantum computers up and running, the accuracy rate should improve considerably....:)


i was thinking more along the lines of rush limbaugh and followers....seldom right but never wrong...just ask them
Quoting 376. WeatherConvoy:

Landscapes out West are being devastated by drought and Bark Beetle infestations. Western states like Montana are losing Billions of trees to this Bark Beetle infestation. Trees do modify the climate and meso and microscale weather systems. This winter has been extreme with the persistent ridge out West and the highly amplified trough in the East. I am not saying that an insect caused all of this, however, these beetles are affecting a large region of the West.




Accelerated Glacier Melt on Snow Dome, Mt. Olympus, Washington, USA due to Deposition of Black Carbon and Mineral Dust from Wildfire


Link

"Moonshadow, moonshadow" ...
Quoting 374. StormTrackerScott:



First off most people in the weather community see a nice buckle in jet across the Eastern US at day 10 which could have some really cold air with it. This forecast isn't just coming from JB.

Have you seen Steve Gregory's latest blog post (posted yesterday)?
I see another typical day on the blog. Anyway, hoping for some rain on Monday but only a 40% chance. We need it badly to settle the pollen down.

It's been a hot month with Tampa recording temperatures over 80 and above normal for 17 out of 19 days. Blog on!
11 days ago, the GFS model predicted snow in the NYC area on Monday, March 16th.

So it wasn't perfect (off by 4 days), but it did predict snow this week for the Mid Atlantic and New York area.

But the GFS predicted the snow would be much heavier (major snow event) and NYC is likely to only get 3-5" today.

Quoting Neapolitan:
You must have known him a really long time ago, back before he became stricken by a chronic case of ideology-induced fecal encephalopathy. He's a decent weather forecaster, I guess, though I don't think terms such as "excellent" or "taken seriously" are applicable. But you're correct in one thing: he's best ignored once speaking of things more than a week or so out, as he's demonstrated absolutely no skill whatsoever beyond that point.


You forgot to mention that he looks great in a speedo:(
Massive amounts of fresh water, glacial melt pouring into Gulf of Alaska
Date:
March 19, 2015
Source:
Oregon State University
Summary:
Incessant mountain rain, snow and melting glaciers in a comparatively small region of land that hugs the southern Alaska coast and empties fresh water into the Gulf of Alaska would create the sixth largest coastal river in the world if it emerged as a single stream, a recent study shows. Freshwater runoff of this magnitude may play important ecological roles

Link
Quoting luvtogolf:
I see another typical day on the blog. Anyway, hoping for some rain on Monday but only a 40% chance. We need it badly to settle the pollen down.

It's been a hot month with Tampa recording temperatures over 80 and above normal for 17 out of 19 days. Blog on!


NWS dropped our rain chances here in Fort Myers from 40% down to 30% for Monday.
Not a good sign for us. Today is day 20 for no rain here at my house.

Quoting 406. tlawson48:



Are you seriously still posting this stupid graph!? This thing has been proven wrong to you so many times on this blog and more frequently on Dr. Roods blog that you must get some sort of perverse excitement out of people continually belittling you.
These quacks are a dime a dozen. I have an extensive, and growing, ignore list on here. One has to work hard to cut the din of the denier BS train...
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Massive amounts of fresh water, glacial melt pouring into Gulf of Alaska
Date:
March 19, 2015
Source:
Oregon State University
Summary:
Incessant mountain rain, snow and melting glaciers in a comparatively small region of land that hugs the southern Alaska coast and empties fresh water into the Gulf of Alaska would create the sixth largest coastal river in the world if it emerged as a single stream, a recent study shows. Freshwater runoff of this magnitude may play important ecological roles

Link


California could sure use that water.
Guardian climate change petition reaches 100k signatures

Actor Tilda Swinton and chef Yotam Ottolenghi are among 100,000 people who have supported the campaign calling for the Wellcome Trust and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to divest from fossil fuels

Link
Keep it in the ground
Join us and more than 105,000 others in urging the world's two biggest charitable funds to move their money out of fossil fuels


Link
Quoting 378. LAbonbon:


To be fair, anyone who hasn't gone to college, or who attended an institution where research isn't regularly conducted, may not be aware of the dual role professors fill. (And that's at least 60% of the U.S.)


His post started with "GFS has a high of 61 & low of 49 in Orlando for March 31st ", so he was clear that it was in the future.


Very cool...yet disconcerting...

I dunno, I mean. I didn't finish 9th grade- I really didn't- but I've somehow absorbed the information that scientists teach scientists, and it seems completely logical to me, because who else should teach science?
Quoting 407. barbamz:


"Moonshadow, moonshadow" ...


Mid-level cloud cover reached my city as we got to the highpoint of the partial eclipse, was a little bit of an anti-climax I have to say.

Current "ridiculous" European Jet Stream Pattern again, which will lead to wet weather (not sure about the rain rates, so can't estimate the severeness of the event) in Spain, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia and when the ECMWF is right it should rain in parts of the Sahara (Algeria - Libya border). The forecast doesn't show much air movement through the western Mediterranean Sea here, so accumulation could be an issue for some regions.

Quoting 404. ricderr:

Ahhhh........Comic relief on da blog.:)........Bastardi is the Morton Downy Jr. of weather.....The models are improving...once they get the quantum computers up and running, the accuracy rate should improve considerably....:)


i was thinking more along the lines of rush limbaugh and followers....seldom right but never wrong...just ask them
Rush fits the bill well also..Mort's distaste for liberals and loud mouth gave him a spot on the tube for a couple of years in the late 80,s. His chain smoking periphrastic rants on tv were annoying...His show didnt last long..May he rest in peace anyway.
Quoting 415. Sfloridacat5:



California could sure use that water.


Water officials hear predictions of looming crisis at Salton Sea

After listening to seven hours of doomsday predictions, state water officials agreed Wednesday to look at one of California’s largest but often ignored environmental problems: the deterioration of the Salton Sea.

State Water Resources Control Board members asked agency staff to explore what power the agency has to get involved in a dispute that, at its core, involves the state Legislature's refusal to live up to its 2003 promise to keep the sea from shrinking and wreaking havoc on the region’s environment, economy and public health.


Link
From NASA Earth Observatory, the Image of the Day for March 20, 2015:

Flooding Along the Ohio River


A combination of melting snow and heavy rainfall in March 2015 brought floods to the Ohio River watershed of the United States, just above the confluence with the Mississippi River. For most of the third week of March, the Ohio River was above flood stage across much of its length, as were the Green, Wabash, White, and other tributaries in Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, and Ohio.

Nearly five inches (13 centimeters) of rain fell in Cincinnati in the first two weeks of March, and the Ohio River reached its highest level (57.5 feet or 17.5 meters) since 1997. Downstream about 8 inches (20 cm) of rain fell in Paducah, Kentucky, mixing with melting snow to raise the Ohio River to 45.54 feet (13.88 m) on March 17; flood stage is 39 feet (12 m). The rising rivers were backed up by ice jams in some areas, flooding roads and low-lying communities. Though waters were receding on the upper reaches by March 19, communities to the south along the Mississippi River were warned of potential flooding as the surge of fresh water headed downstream.


Full article (contains an image from last year and a side-by-side image comparison tool)
“The Salton Sea is not a fine wine; it doesn’t improve with age,” Kelley said.

To sell water to San Diego County, Imperial Valley farmers have had to fallow land – 50,000 acres last year. A reduction in water used for irrigation means less runoff water into the Salton Sea; runoff is a major source of replenishment for the sea.

The sea is shrinking, which exposes more ground to the air. As the sea recedes, dust storms swirl with a suddenly exposed sea bed laden with agricultural pesticides. The Imperial Valley and Coachella Valley areas have a high rate of asthma and other breathing problems.


Heading into the Texas Hill Country just northwest of San Antonio and just west of Austin.

That's a very hilly and rocky area that flash floods very easily.
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
234 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL RANGE FROM THE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORIES TODAY
. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 75 MPH WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES RANGING FROM 14 TO 24 PERCENT.

ON SATURDAY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORIES.


SDZ012>014-026-030>032-042>044-046-047-049-072>07 4-202300-
BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-RAPID CITY-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-HAAKON-SHANNON-JACKSON-
BENNETT-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLE FOURCHE...FAITH...DUPREE...
RAPID CITY...FOLSOM...WALL...PHILIP...PINE RIDGE...KYLE...
KADOKA...MARTIN...WHITE RIVER...MISSION...WINNER...STURGIS...
UNION CENTER...HERMOSA
234 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015 /334 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/

...EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH THE EXTREME CATEGORY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS OR A VERY LOW
MOISTURE CONTENT OF GRASSES...AND OTHER DRY ORGANIC MATERIAL
ON THE GROUND...INDICATE THAT CRITICAL BURNING CONDITIONS EXIST.
A FIRE WILL START EASILY AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LARGE
AND SPREAD QUICKLY BECOMING ERRATIC WITH EXTREME BEHAVIORAL
CHARACTERISTICS. NO OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD TAKE PLACE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
INDEX WILL REACH THE HIGH CATEGORY TO VERY HIGH CATEGORY.


The eclipse today way pretty remarkable, my entire school (about 1000 people) basically stopped and sat outside for around an hour so we could whiteness it, quite an incredible thing hearing hundreds of people gasp with astonishment at once! We were very lucky that the sky was mostly clear!

Why Red-Colored Snow on the Rockies Is a Major Warning Sign That the West Is Drying Up
The era of cheap and plentiful water in the West is over and that's bad news for our sprawling cities, agriculture and ecosystems.
By Chip Ward
September 15, 2009

Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I'm not sure what is more impressive--the SST anomalies off the West Coast or SST anomalies in the Gulf. Both regions are much, much warmer than average.

Quoting ZacWeatherKidUK:
The eclipse today way pretty remarkable, my entire school (about 1000 people) basically stopped and sat outside for around an hour so we could whiteness it, quite an incredible thing hearing hundreds of people gasp with astonishment at once! We were very lucky that the sky was mostly clear!


Pretty cool stuff. I remember everyone in my school going outside to watch a solar eclipse when I was a kid.
We were supposed to use our shoe box viewers we made, but most the kids just looked at the sun (which we were repeatedly told not to do).

I remember watching it with just sunglasses, which we were also told not to do.
well..if you're a long range model followers....if you trust long range models.....MJO aint coming back to the west pacific as previously speculated

Quoting 335. NativeSun:




Hmm. Quote not working right... I guess they mean in modern times, not since the dawn of the planet that we could have the lowest ice extent in the Arctic...

Going back to all the ice melting would not be good as evidence has shown a lot of areas that currently have people living on them would be under water...

ColoradoBob posted an article about all the fresh water dumping into the Gulf of Alaska. What should be noted is that at least some of that "melt" off is not floating ice - but ice melting that was sitting on land and up Mountains.

It is my first winter up here and coming from South Florida and it wasn't a bad winter at all. A lot of my long time Alaskan resident neighbors are perplexed and can't believe how warm this year was. Of course, to me, that means there is a really gnarly winter coming in the next few years. Just like you can't be Hurricane free forever living in South Florida - you know one year you are gonna get socked.
Quoting 370. ACSeattle:


What makes me weep is that anybody takes JB seriously
yo
Quoting 400. hydrus:

Ahhhh........Comic relief on da blog.:)........Bastardi is the Morton Downy Jr. of weather.....The models are improving...once they get the quantum computers up and running, the accuracy rate should improve considerably....:)
Its, not the computers people, its the people programming the computers. Garbage in, garbage out. I think I'll trust JB's forecast, short or long range, over any of the bloggers on here.