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Earth Day

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:34 PM GMT on April 21, 2006

This week marks the 1-year anniversary of my first blog, and what a year it's been! I had no idea when this blogging project started last year on Earth Day that it would grow to the levels it has. A big Thanks goes to everybody who reads the blog, and for those who post comments and wunderphotos and write your own blogs--thanks for your participation in this awesome experiment to explore the immense potential of this strange and wonderful new communication medium we've invented, the Internet. While at times the comments section of my blog may lapse into irrelevant anarchy, these comments helps me understand what subjects people find important to talk about . Many of the links and comments you've posted I've used to help formulate my blogs. This blog is a collaborative effort! I particulary want to thank the great people at the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, and Climate Prediction Center, whom I rely on very heavily for my blog material.

I tend to focus a lot on the violence and destruction our weather brings, as well as the dangers posed human-caused climate change and pollution. While these issues are critical to our survival, we also need to focus on just what an amazing and beautiful creation the atmosphere is. The air we breathe and the water it gives us, sustain all life. We all share the atmosphere, and are all touched by it, for we all breathe the same air. The best thing you can do tomorrow to honor Earth Day is to go outside, take a few deep breaths and feel how the air in your lungs sustains you, look at the beauty of the atmosphere surrounding you, and appreciate this great gift we have.

I'll post a few of the many awesome wunderphotos you've submitted over the past year, that I've used as my screensavers. Thank you all for sharing these!

Jeff Masters

Charlotte County, Florida tornado
Charlotte County, Florida tornado
Another image of the tornado, as it touched down in Punta Gorda, Florida
Double Rainbow
Double Rainbow
Dusk in the San Joaquin Valley after a rainy day.
Aurora Rising from the Trees
Aurora Rising from the Trees
This is from the spectacular aurora last night. One of my favorite views is the sight of an aurora shining through the trees as it "rises up" to the sky. Bright waves like these are thrilling and uncommon. The reddish glow is from lighting to the south.

Atmospheric Phenomena

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1. F5
Wow, first!
cool photo

1st
Happy 1st Dr. Masters
4th darn.
dr jeff,congrats on your 1st.even though i"ve disagreed with you politically(heck,thats what makes it interesting)i have gained a ton of knowledge this past year.for a weather freak and a guy who lives directly on the coast,this past year has been a class in meteorology.once again,well done.
Dr Masters,

Great Photo picks!!!
Thank you, Dr. Masters, for a great year's worth of posts. Please keep them coming. We also appreciate your patience and tolerance of the irrelevant anarchy that the comments section sometimes degenerates into - while it doesn't always read especially well, it is THE public forum here in the WU world and the freedom for people to express themselves is much appreciated.
Dr Masters,

I cannot belive you have only had your blog for a year. I guess that is why I didn't know it even existed until last summer! In the previous years I had only come to this site during hurricane season; I found it very good to get the Hurricane UPdates from your Tropical Weather page. I didn't even know all of the other stuff even existed. Then last summer I clicked onto you blog and a whole new world opened up...other weather geeks just like me!!LOL!! and there is where it begin!

We all cannot thank you enough for giving us a safe place to learn about weather, photography and all kinds of other subjects PLUS meet so many wonderful people!

Thank you Dr Masters and Congratulations on your First Anniversary!!!


Gamma
Happy blog birthday, kiddo!

Margie
where is all the blogs for 2004
Funny, I just posted this the other day. Seems as though it should, if not already, be the anthem for Earth Day :)

I see skies of blue
And clouds of white
The bright blessed day
The dark sacred night

And I think to myself
What a wonderful world

The colors of the rainbow
So pretty in the sky
Are also on the faces
Of people going by
I see friends shaking hands
Saying how do you do
They're really saying
I love you
I hear babies cry
I them grow
They'll learn much more
Than I'll ever know

And I think to myself
What a wonderful world
Yes I think to myself
What a wonderful world
Oh, yeah

Thank You Louis :)
12. WSI
These blogs are great. Keep up the good work! :)
Thanks for a year of Wunder! I've been annoyed, exasperated, informed and entertained - sometimes in the same post!! It's an extraordinary window into our amazing world - the people around us, the incredible medium of the internet and the lovely planet that is our only home. Looking at the images you selected I'm delighted and inspired once again by the beauty of this world and grateful for the chance to share my own views (photo & blog) and the views of so many others. Excellent job, Dr. Masters! And thank you to everyone who's put so much into this site!!
Dr. Masters, what is the total number of comments on your blog? And thanks for your great blog :-)
I stumbled across the blog area as a result of trying to learn more about last year's astonishing hurricane season. Thank you Dr. Masters, and all the commenters, for helping me learn so much! I tried following the Midwest & East blog (I live in southeast Wisconsin), but they concentrated on the east coast and I ended up abandoning them to come back here..... This blog on WU is the BEST!

I look forward to reading this blog, daily during my lunch break. Keep up the good work!
Wow, you have only been doing this for a year? I would have thought that you had been doing this for at least 3 years.

Happy anniversary, and I hope we will see more very interesting blogs for years to come.
You've given people an "inch" of freedom (freedom to blog) and some have taken a "mile," but that is nature of freedom...overtime the extremists will relax a bit and modify their enthusiaism. Many of us (not so tech center) are learning how to use this new technology and gives us a new way to be create...my talent for the arts is nil, but I sure enjoy the chance to express myself via the blog! I think I'm not alone in that...also, learning a lot about weather related topics, etc., so keep up on our toes with new ideas!
Thank Doc, this blog has been a closet weather geek's dream. I'm a fellow ulty player and came across your blog while mesmerized by last years hurricanes. I was wondering about an NY Times article I read. Are you guys planning on utilizing thes readings? Will these sattelites improve forcasting of strength during hurricane season?

Thanks,
BH
Thanks Dr. M for your info and patience over the past year and I look forward to your posts in the upcoming hurricane season. Still clearing up from Ivan in 04 so hopefully no more hits this year.
Thank you so very much for your blog! I have
been reading it since you started and put the rss
feeds on my google homepage.

I have been through a terrible flash flood where
I lost everything, almost died and watch my
neighbors drown. So I swore to myself that the
weather is never ever going to surprise me again.

You have such a way of explaining the weather
that the average person can understand it too,
and I have learned sooooo much. Thank you!

Keep up the good work :).
thnx for all the information you posted i learned a lot of all this

I hope you keep posting things
23. OGal
Thank you for allowing us the priviledge of blogging on your site. We are certainly a big extended family. Like all families sometimes we are happy and sometims unhappy. I do think in the upcoming hurricane season we will all be there for each other. Having said this "Dr. Earth," without you none of this would be possible. Tomorrow I will take that deep breath and love my gift of life.
I've frequented this site for several years, would have joined if I'd realized all the weather geek candy that could have been excessable & the intrege i felt at the New! Blogs in the header, well it was like the red don't push button. Never before had I been rapped up in online discussions. The free online weather school Jeff had started, hooked me. The drama around figuring out how to make this a great online community, particularly though rapid growing pains & bad weather, well by mid summer, I had deemed that entertainment more than worthy of the $5 & joined. Well that & a ting of guilt. I've payed more for some college courses where I'd learned far less.

The launch of our new toys has been scrubbed til tommarrow.
Happy anniversary!

It's an absolute pleasure to read your blog, and each new entry gives me something more to contemplate when it comes to meteorology. Thanks, Dr. Masters!
"irrelevant anarchy"

Heh. What an...appropriate phrasing ;) Quite a year indeed...and the 2006 hurricane season is approaching (in fact, there's a warm core subtropical low in the BOC...)
You might want to know that Monica is blowing up and will make landfall in Australia; the forecast a Category 5. JTWC currently says 933 mb and 110 kts:



I guess that this is no surprise, given what has happened already (Larry, Floyd, Glenda).
Monica's eye can be clearly seen at 13S 139E in this satellite image taken an hour ago:

Oh, man, the blog has been wrecked!

By the way (and this is for anybody) - if you want to post a big picture, post a small picture (such as the thunbnails) and then make a link using the image to the full size; like this:


click on image for full size version
Dr Masters
Thank You so much for your blog I have been
reading it now for over 10 months and also
have posted...:0) You keep up the Great work
and I'll keep reading and posting...
Dr. Masters,
Congratulations on doing your blog for one year! I started reading it just after Katrina and decided to join in February. It's a dream for me, too , to be able to meet other people that I can talk weather with. We can get a little carried away at times, thanks for being so patient with us. I enjoy all your blogs and look forward to the future here.

Mark
wow snowski

take some lessons on how to resize images

):
Yep. Perhaps any admin reading this could add a resize tag to that?



Here's an example of the link-to-the-bigger-image technique.
For what it's worth the 18z GFS takes keeps Monica offshore and turns it southwest to near Darwin in about four days.
Very nice Dr Masters and thanks a lot for providing this blog. I have always found Meteorology as a hobby of mine but never as a career path. However, this past summer with the hurricane season we had and the various other weather related incidents, I found new motivation to explore the field in search of a degree in the field.

I plan to hold a Community Garbage cleanup in my area in 1 month. I'm going to call it the Month After Earth Community Cleanup. Hopefully with enough volunteer support, it will become an anual event and other communities with follow. For with the predictions of global warming being as dire as they are, it is now a crucial time to get everyone involved in their communities and surroundings in order to work together to solve this problem. The garbage cleanup may be a small step in starting that revolution, however I believe with time and enough effort, human induced global warming can be a distant memory for our children.
Hmmmm...Thanks Dr. Masters for the wonderful source of information and intriguing blog entries. I found this blog shortly after its creation, and check in several times daily. I have learned soooo much! THANK YOU!

Now..curious about something..I find this interesting on the GFS MSLP 1000 - 500mb. Start at 24 hr, and watch down by PR. Continue through about 90-108 hr. Is this something to be watching????
I should add the NOGAPS has Monica turning into land well before Darwin. Considering the storm is/was only moving at 2 mph the GFS may be taking it west too fast. NOGAPS is much slower for the first couple days so that model might be the better bet at this point.

Sayhuh, there is nothing and will be nothing in the near future worth watching in the Atlantic.
Happy 1st year blogging Dr. Masters! I don't post often, but I read every day, and can't thank you enough for the new knowledge reading this blog has brought me.
I don't think so, say.

Monica is really kicking now, SSD is out with a T6.0 115kt for her. Structure is perfect, it'll keep strengthening if nothing changes.
On topic...

Happy blogday and again from the Florida Keys ... thank you for last summers blogs; those are some wonderful weather photos; the Charlotte tornado reminds me of some of the best waterspout memories I have including looking UP the funnel once near Stock Island (near Key West) - take care sir - Rod
Monica is now a 100-kt cyclone forecast to strengthen to 115 kt by 00Z, making it a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This should be a properly sized thumbnail of the 0130Z satellite overpass. Clicking on the thumbnail should bring up the full image.

From the JTWC Discussion at 00Z:

"THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD DUE TO REDUCED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE INGESTION OF DRIER AIR, AND DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND."

How can a forecast change so ridiculously in just 12 hours? Where is this dry air and where was it 12 hours ago? What about the "huge" amount of disruption in low level inflow due to(I know it happens, but 90% of the time it never affects its intensity before landfall!!!)? It really annoys me. I have seen nothing in terms of changes in upper level winds or shear, and no major data updates to suggest anything but slight strengthening or at least maintaining its intensity until landfall. They are taking after the NHC...
Here's an earthday quiz... See how many planets we'd need if everyone on earth lived like you.
44. Asa
Congrats on your blog's 1st anniversary, Dr. Masters!! I have been reading your outstanding blog since I discovered it shortly before Dennis "refreshed" Ivan's demolition work, and have learned much about hurricanes and meterology both from your presentations and the on-topic commentary. Keep up the good work!

This is what I got when I took the quiz:

CATEGORY ACRES
FOOD 4
MOBILITY 0.2
SHELTER 5.2
GOODS/SERVICES 4.9
TOTAL FOOTPRINT 14

IN COMPARISON, THE AVERAGE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT IN YOUR COUNTRY IS 24 ACRES PER PERSON.

WORLDWIDE, THERE EXIST 4.5 BIOLOGICALLY PRODUCTIVE ACRES PER PERSON.

IF EVERYONE LIVED LIKE YOU, WE WOULD NEED 3.2 PLANETS.
I got 3.1 planets...
IF EVERYONE LIVED LIKE YOU, WE WOULD NEED 3.2 PLANETS.

Or, perhaps more usefully, "If everyone lived like you, we would need 69% fewer people."

Any quiz on this topic that attaches no weight to how many children you have -- indeed, rewards people with more children, by counting them as living in higher-density housing -- is B-O-G-U-S, at least in my opinion.
jeffB - you are right about the "persons per household" this is what I got when I took it again but used 1 person instead of 5, with everything else the same:

CATEGORY ACRES
FOOD 4
MOBILITY 0.2
SHELTER 23.7
GOODS/SERVICES 21.7

TOTAL FOOTPRINT 50

IN COMPARISON, THE AVERAGE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT IN YOUR COUNTRY IS 24 ACRES PER PERSON.

WORLDWIDE, THERE EXIST 4.5 BIOLOGICALLY PRODUCTIVE ACRES PER PERSON.

IF EVERYONE LIVED LIKE YOU, WE WOULD NEED 11.2 PLANETS.

So, if I lived alone, and everybody else was the same, we would need over 3 times more Earths (although I realize that if I actually lived alone I would have a smaller house, use less food, drive less, produce less waste, etc). There are advantages though when people live together, as they share the energy needed to heat/cool, drive, etc. I also noticed that "Food" and "Mobility" were unchanged, in contrast to "Shelter" and "Goods/Services".
If everyone lived like me, we would need 3.1 planets.



I say we start with Mars.
lou - I wonder how many people live with you (it will show a much higher number if you say that you live alone, as you can see from my posts above).
I still live with my parents, and intend to stay living with them until I am finacially ready to live on my own. In addition to my parents, I also have 2 brothers.
Got 15 and 3.5. Even so, how come the message is always that we have to do with less? Why can't it be to continue to increase efficiency and bring everyone else up?
When I go with just 1 person, and everything else is the same, it says 7.7 planets would be needed.
I have compact flourescent lamps for several of the lights in my house; they are supposed to last much longer than regular bulbs and use less power (about 1/4 as much); however, they do contain mercury, which is hazardous to the environment, so if somebody throws them in the trash instead of recycling them, it will cause pollution. Also, I usually do not leave my computer on when I am not going to be using it for more than an hour or two and always turn it off at night (I use hibernation, which saves everything and shuts the computer off; you don't have to wait for it to start up when you turn it back on).
goog night evere one
I only have an 11 acre footprint...booya.
I still have less than the average (14, the average is 24 acres per person, but many people do not live in 5 person households).
Hmmm, my footprint came out to 15. There's no public transportation anywhere around us, we have running water (a rarity in the valley), but it's a shallow well and we haul drinking water, and we're "on the grid" only 7 months out of the year, but that wasn't an option to pick. We go off the grid, into the bush, to a cabin with no running water or electricity, relocating chickens and some garden starts on May 15th. Needless to say, my own blog will get pretty sparse around that time. :-)
Wow--off the grid, we're a 7!
FOOD 5.4
MOBILITY 0.5
SHELTER 4
GOODS/SERVICES 3
TOTAL FOOTPRINT 13

Not too bad from what I see here.

Congratualations Dr. Masters on the 1 year blogaversary, I had no idea it was so new, I thought it was something I missed.

I discovered WU from the local cable news channel TXCN which for a while had your radar images on their site. I thought: Wow! That is MUCH better than the weather.com which I use fir my weather applet on my gnome panel on my Linux desktops, so I plugged it in to my gweather. With the insane hurrican season last year, I discovered exporing the site the Tropical Weather section which had a much more consistent and informative presentation than I got from cnn.com etc which really seemed to focus on the human interest, and every thing was overhyped.

I can't remember exactly when I took the dive for the paid membership (Not too hard a decision, it is a very reasonable price, just I had never paid for access to a website before, except for just recently consumerreports.org which is a great resource for buying a car, and getting an efficient laundry that actually works etc...), later I found the blogs in an idle moment at work ;)

An echo of someone elses post. I tried to follow some of the winter weather blogs, but they were hardly at all relevant to where I am down at the bottom of Texas inland from Brownsville along the Rio Grande about 50 miles. If there was a south west weather blog, that might have been different, but I guess winter weather down here is really pretty tame, so there is quite a bit less to discuss.
Your Blog doesn't just give more insight into what is going on with the weather. Through it, we see the human side that allows us to know more about the thought, feeling, and face that helped to calculate the numbers, charts and graphs. During hurricane season, your easier-to-understand explanations helped more than you may be aware.
A whole year now, huh? Well, it's been great and hope there are many more! Your blogs have been an educational experience for the weather-challenged. I've learned enough to realize that I have so much more TO learn. I guess if I just keep hanging out here and reading, I'll get better at it. Though, I don't want to get so "educated" that I lose the ability look up and just think, "Neat clouds", once in a while.
Keep 'em coming!
that earthday quiz has a bit of a bias. Change your country but answer every question the same to see what I mean. you may need conversions.

As an american I use 11 acres. As an Indian I would only use 1.6. Living the same exact lifestyle.
Good morning everyone,

It is EARTH DAY!!! Let's all do what we can to help out our Mother Earth.

I have been recycling since before we had recycle pick up...back then I had to gather my recycle stuff and take it to a receipical area; now it is even easier to do.

We all also need to watch out for excessive chemicals we put into the ground and our water supplies.

I want the fish I catch to be eatable!

If we all do our part, we can make it a better world!
CATEGORY ACRES

FOOD 2.7

MOBILITY 1.5

SHELTER 4.9

GOODS/SERVICES 4.4

TOTAL FOOTPRINT 14

Apparently.

Great work Dr. Masters. Thanks.
Check out Monica this morning! Australia puts it at cat 5 even on our scale! They say she has gusts of 200 MPH! Click for larger image:


Posted By: BlowHard (151.151.73.167) at 6:33 PM GMT on April 21, 2006.
Thank Doc, this blog has been a closet weather geek's dream. I'm a fellow ulty player and came across your blog while mesmerized by last years hurricanes. I was wondering about a NY Times article I read. Are you guys planning on utilizing thes readings? Will these sattelites improve forcasting of strength during hurricane season?


I am pretty excited about the potential of the new CloudSat satellite, but it will probably take several years before the project moves out of the exerimental research realm and becomes useful in real-time for making hurricane forecasts.

Happy Earth Day, everyone, and thanks for all the great comments!

Some Earth Day links sent to me by Margie Kieper:


http://www.worldwildlife.org/earthday/

http://www.earthday.net/

http://www.earthsite.org/

http://earthday.envirolink.org/

http://www.earthday.com/do/Home

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Day

Jeff Masters
Happy anniversary JeffMasters. I would just like to say how happy I am.

Also its great to wake up and read a new blog. I have learned so much from the blogs. Its just great to see how popular it is and to see an active community.

There are other weather web sites that you have to pay to post your own blog.

I hope to be here for many years to come

Congradulations again JeffMasters
Dear Jeff

I'd like to add my thanks for providing this fascinating blog which has hugely enlarged my insight into storms, how they develop, causes etc. I cannot imagine how you make the time to put all this information together considering you have a day job and your social life too. Please keep it going.

On the subject of anarchy, I have no problem with off the wall predictions, differing analysis (professional and amateur and so on). I seem to recall a number of respondents insisting that a storm that had "disappeared" and been professionally written off was likely to revive. Was that what reappeared as Katrina?

However those who treat the sight as a childish chat roonm and post frequently things about dropping their toast, getting ready to go home, and generally filling the site with garbage really infuriate me. As a result I rarely view the comments nowadays as about 80% is pointless and unreadable. A shame because the more interesting comments are worth reading. Could you not warn boring people that they will be cut off and, if they don't comply, then block their incoming email so we don't have to put up with it?

Itw oudl eb good if your technical hosts could add a spellchecker. I'm not the only one with malfunctioning fingers!

Thanks again and let us hope that this hurricane season is less harmful than last, despite current predictions.
CATEGORY ACRES

FOOD 4.7

MOBILITY 4.2

SHELTER 10.9

GOODS/SERVICES 17

TOTAL FOOTPRINT 37


8.3 PLANETS

Yikes! Looks like we need to be looking outside our solar system!
Congragulations Dr. Masters on your 1 year anniversary!!!!
Also Happy Earth day everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!
new to posting on the blogs been reading them for about 3 weeks now. but GRATS on 1 year! and the photos of the Auroa are beautiful i want to see that 1 day.
Hmm...I'm a 23 acre guy. Here I was feeling pretty good about eating meat only once per day, and beef only once or twice a week......

Perhaps instead of colonizing planets, we should:

1) Check the math. The surface area of a sphere is 4*pi*r*r. For a 5000mi radius earth, that yields about 300 million square miles of surface area, which is about 200 billion acres. That means that only 1/8 of the earth's surface is "biologically active"? Surely at least some of the cold or desert areas have at least fractional value?

2) Colonize the oceans. They occupy a lot of the total area of the earth, including a preponderance of the warm area. And as for global warming, who cares about rising ocean levels if you live on a floating island?

3) Inflate the earth. All you need is a big pump to inflate the earth to make better use of the iron core material. Make the earth 3 times as big and it'll support 9 times the people! Instead of a "big blue ball" we'd have a "big metal ball".
Zap
Today's launch~ scrubbed til tommarrow. The CALIPSO and CloudSat satellites are now set to launch at 6:02 a.m. EDT.

Here is a more precise footprint calculator, it's the one the other is modeled on in an area specifice kind of way. Here's more info on the latter & how it's calculated.
Monica is just tremendous now - JTWC says 125kt 10-min sustained, or roughly 140kt on our scale. That's 160mph, a Cat 5. And it's like their early November now, I think :O
What's Monica's pressure? As far as winds & time of year she's like our Wilma...
916mb, per NRL.

On the footprint calculator, I think the 1/8 of the earth being farm-viable is pretty close to correct. 5/8 of it is water, and probably 10-15% of the land is antarctica, with another 5-10% contained in Siberia and Canada. That leaves roughly 80% of 3/8, or 3/10 of the world. Factor in deserts for another few percent, then add areas covered in rain forests or too hilly to farm, and I'd say 1/8 (12.5%) is rather reasonable.
Congratulations Dr. Masters. I have been inspired and educated by your blog. I have sometimes been infuriated by the comments, but they make me think, too.
Thanks for taking the time to create this - I know it must take some serious time and effort. You are much appreciated!
NOLA
Here are my results:


CATEGORY ACRES
FOOD 3.2
MOBILITY 0.5
SHELTER 4.9
GOODS/SERVICES 3.7
TOTAL FOOTPRINT 12



IN COMPARISON, THE AVERAGE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT IN YOUR COUNTRY IS 24 ACRES PER PERSON.

WORLDWIDE, THERE EXIST 4.5 BIOLOGICALLY PRODUCTIVE ACRES PER PERSON.

IF EVERYONE LIVED LIKE YOU, WE WOULD NEED 2.8 PLANETS.
Good Evening on Earth Day Dr. Jeff -

I must thank my brother profusely for introducing me to this site over a year ago. He has his weather station attached to your site as he reports our local weather to the local paper and can do so from any computer (darn! - he used to ask me to do it when he went out of town).

I ventured here in the beginning for the weather information, quickly found the photos - which are JUST amazing, and then not long ago discovered the blogs.

You have truly created a community here - a community of learners. I appreciate all the hard work you and your crew put into this site, and want you to know how much I personally appreciate it.

So - thanks Wundergound crew - each and everyone of you!

SBKaren
Monica is now a 125-kt, category 4 cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This visible image from the 0030Z satellite overpass shows a clearly defined eye:



while the water vapor image shows an even better-defined eye:

She is now Category 5. Look at that pressure!!!

Is it supposed to hit any land masses Atmos? Looks pretty close, last I heard it was going to avoid land.
The latest thinking is that it will turn towards the west and parallel the Northern Territory coast. After about 18 hours it should turn southwestward into the coast. Where the turns occur is of huge importance. If it turns early, then Monica will be stronger at landfall than she is now! If she parallels the coast all the way to that peninsula and then turns, she might weaken slightly due to the increased land interaction, but she will be more likely to hit Darwin with incredible winds. Right now she is hinting at that westward turn. I will keep you guys updated when the new JTWC track comes out.
Hopefully people are battening down the hatches in Darwin. First they were bombed by the Japanese in WWII, then Tracey wreaked havok. I think building codes were revised after Tracey, but even so, this one sounds pretty big!
Remember, 125kt is a ten-minute average, and we use 1-minute averages, so it's stronger than that would suggest.



That's just incredible, totally textbook storm.
I hope this isn't what Dr. Grey were talking about when he said less Huricanes but more Intense Hurricanes this year. Seem to be getting alot of Cat 5's down under.
Oh my god...140kt 10-minute ~ 155kt 1-minute...that's 180mph!!!
Wonder if anyone stayed on that small island chain, sheesh thier about to get swallowed up.
Wikipedia entry for Darwin. The Japanese raid on darwin was by the same fleet that bombed Perl Harbor but they dropped more bombs on Darwin.
I doubt anyone there will survive, if anyone was foolish enough to stay. She's gotta be packing a just tremendous surge.
I really hope this is not a glimpse of what our hurricane season is going to be like.
Zaphod wrote:

Hmm...I'm a 23 acre guy. Here I was feeling pretty good about eating meat only once per day, and beef only once or twice a week...

Yeah, I got a good chuckle from the first question. As I was brought up, eating "animal based products" "often" meant every single meal, and that was normal. I was probably in my 30s before I had my first "meatless day", unless you count being unable to eat at all because of a stomach virus. :-)
OH MY GOD!!! T 7.6!!! 885 mb!!! AND STILL INTENSIFYING!!!



And, look at this doomsday track!!! So close to Darwin!!!

Oh man. 885 MB!!! What is the record low pressure for that Basin? And whats the intensity forcast until landfall?
The record is held by Cyclone Zoe of 2002 at 879 mb. Monica could break that. According to the JTWC track, she will make landfall at 145 mph. However, I believe she will turn earlier than they say, which will give her less time to weaken due to less land interaction. if she turns 150-200 miles earlier she could be a Category 5 easily at landfall.
Okay, I tried filling out the survey as an Inuit -- no electric or autos, but meat every meal -- and it said we'd need 1.3 planets if everyone lived as I do. Heh.

I tried filling it out as a Kenyan, no meat, no electric, no gas, not even a motorbike, and it said we'd need 1.0 planets for everyone to live as I do. It looks like they won't ever admit to a situation where we could afford to support more people. :-)
Not easy to see in the cimms you posted but, possible EWRC soon?
Nope, there is no outer eye wall forming, and the eye is clearing out and hasn't shrunk at all. This is quite amazing. She could take a run at 880 mb and 190 mph.
Man I feel sorry for the people those Islands. Life is about to get very tough for them.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts the following track for Monica:



and in case you're interested, here's a highway map showing how to get out of the area:

Lol snowski. The bottom map is extremely useful LOL!!!!
: atmosweather i am back in my blog now

we can pick this up in my blog if you all want to come on in and have fun tonight i be in my blog in tell 11:00pm or so
Monica is now T 7.8, 876 mb, Vmax 164 kt.

I wonder how accurate this Advanved Objective Dvorak Technique is compared to a real barometric measurement?
876 lol
I pray for the people on that island chain.
Coulden't imagine feeling winds of 180+ miles an hour. One big giant tornado.
Here's the current Monica radar loop.

Gove, AU radar
T7.9...the scale only goes to 8! Unbelieveable!
7.8, sorry. That estimate puts it as by far the strongest storm outside the Western Pacific, after Wilma, and only 6mb short of Tip O_O
Jeff CONGRATS On your 1 Year Anniversarry!!!!

And WHAT A way to Celebrate (kind of - God Bless Those People Down Under)

We Have A NEW Record Low Pressure in a Basin!!!!!!

Not yet, snowman. The official pressure is 916mb, that's just an objective estimate.
That brings me to a point. How accurate are satellite estimates of pressure compared to a real barometric measurement?
really? wow there is sooo many differences in the way we do things and the way they do them
wikipedia has it comfirmed lol But WOW this is just........I'm speechless

AND ON EARTH DAY!!!!!!!!!
Appears to be loosing some steam on the radar Hawk posted.
Kind of appropriate.

Satellite estimates can be excellent (ala Katrina) or god-awful (ala Hugo).
It does? I see it strengthening still.
The 164 knots I think is flight-level, which at a 90% estimate would translate to a 148 knot storm. IMO, there is enough interference that 145 knots (165 mph) is the correct wind speed at this moment.

The 877 mb pressure makes me speechless. That is the lowest EVER outside the Western Pacific, and the ninth lowest in world history.
all i can say is wooooooooooooooow
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200604/s1621882.htm

Looks like people are staying on that Island that is about to get hit. Crazy!
kerneld what are they thinking

people on that Island get out of there
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For Daly River Mouth to the Queensland Border
Issued at 11:10 am CST on Sunday 23 April 2006

Synoptic situation
At 10 am CST Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica 925 hPa was located within 20 nautical miles of 11.8S 138.0E, about 85 nautical miles northeast of Nhulunbuy and 145 nautical miles east northeast of Elcho Island, and was moving west northwest at 5 knots. Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to maintain intensity as it moves towards the west during the next 24 hours. Centre forecast to be within 80 nautical miles of 11.4S 134.4E at 10 am CST Monday.

Storm Warning
within 50 nautical miles of cyclone centre...
Clockwise winds above 48 knots. Winds 125 knots near centre. Seas to 10 metres on a 5 metre swell.

Gale Warning
within 100 nautical miles of cyclone centre...
Clockwise winds above 34 knots. Seas and swell rising to 4 metres. Scattered squalls to 50 knots.

Here is a nice sattelite image of Monica.
Woe! Are there ppeople on that little place called Cape Wessel. I googled it but can't get anything on population. It'll be a sand bar tomorrow.
Cape Wessel Makes up 1% of the Austrailian Population.
Based on 2003 Population that would be about 200,000 people
Tropical Cyclone Ingrid in March 2005 was also very strong and Monica is taking a very similar path. The following link has a lot of Ingrid info including damage pictures from several locations along Monica's future path.

Link
Judging by the wind speed and barometric pressure, Ingrid was nothing in compared to this storm. If Monica holds together we are going to see what a Cat 5 does directly impacting a populated area. But there can't be that many people on that little spit of an island area.
Radar is showing a 2nd eywall starting to form, might save costal areas if this happens
JTWC now has Monica at 892 mb, 145 kts:

145kt 10-minute...this thing has 185mph winds and is still strengthening :O 892mb, she's passing Rita.

Almost to the top!

23/0733 UTC 11.3S 137.2E T7.5/7.5 MONICA
Thanks Jeff,

For a whole year of a wunderful blog. Your discussion of weather events is often much more informative, in-depth, and easier to read for the amateurs amongst us.

As for being an amateur, i am probably not even that. Just an interested party living in a hurricane prone area. Perhaps a suggestion for future blogs could be some discussion of the methods you weather guru's use to derive your predictions? What details to look for when we look at those colorful satellite images?

Thank you, and don't stop the good work!
-- Craine --
Is Monica expected to weaken before landfall?
Craine, that's an excellent idea. I'll do a blog on technique every few days till hurricane season.
Before final landfall, yes, but it'll be scraping the coasts for days.
Pressure still disputed - the TCWC still shows 877, while Darwin is sticking to 905 and 892 is the JTWC number.

Honestly, my belief is with the 877.

As for the winds, the 1min sustained would be 154 knots - so this would have 155 knots (180 mph) winds.
Wow that is quite a tc,it looks very organized and compact,pray for them folks downunder.By the way who the heck celebrates earth day eccept for hippies and newagers?
Just highlights the reason we need international recon flights to land threatening storms. If we knew the real inensity, and weren't just throwing darts in the range of pressures that are normally assosiated with a storm that looks that good, then people could probably make better preeiction and we would know for sure how intense the storm is we are looking at.
I tell you what I don't celebrate it.
TCWC? Link?

Direct pressure measurements are gonna be available for this storm. JTWC now shows a track just south of Darwin, which will spare them the worst (remember, this is the southern hemisphere, so the front LEFT quadrant is the strongest). Still, being 30 miles from a 130kt storm is a bad thing.
I feel that an Alternative Earth Day should be celebrated, as we need to respect the Earth from a religious perspective (it was given to us from God), not from a hippie perspective of radical environmentalism.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt26.html for the 877 mb estimate


On the pressure - notice the +10.6mb adjustment for latitude, I think the 877 is before that. It's still (rounded) 888, though.
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

No explanation required.
Colby, direct pressure measurments may be available, but we'll only see the lowest pressure if it goes over a weather monitoring station AND that station survives the eye wall.
True enough.
Here's a news article released an hour ago on Monica. There is people in the path~ that pic speaks volumes in my opinion. Also interesting they bunker instead of hunker.
Guess i wasn't too far off with it looks like their Wilma lastnight, shortly before i lost internet due to rains, yeah! Lost power for 45 mins think lightnin hit a transformer on the road. NWS was right on, with a 35 min lead time on the warning, from the weather radio (storm hit at exact said time). 42 mins later, no power. It's hard to find a better investment than a weather radio.
Here's a wave graphic for Monica, there's a Java loop option in the upper right hand side. Looks to be 40'+.