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Early Out Retirements At The National Weather Service

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:53 PM GMT on February 27, 2006

The National Weather Service plans to offer early retirement to up to 1000 of its 4700 employees in order to cut costs. The plan, called the Voluntary
Early Out Retirement Authority (VERA) Implementation Plan
, is preliminary, and still needs approval from the Office of Personnel Management. Under the plan, 13 of the National Hurricane Center's 42 employees would be offered early retirement, and would potentially be replaced by lower-paid entry level meteorologists, in order to cut costs.

I contacted Dan Sobien, vice president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization, to ask his opinion of the plan. While he supported the idea of offering early retirement to NWS workers, he expressed concern about offering the package to operational forecasters that issue warnings. These critical people could potentially be replaced by interns straight out of college. In particular, he pointed to the part of the proposal that states:

"NWS management will determine if the vacant position needs to be filled"

Sobien remarked, "My objection is using the word "if" when talking about operational positions". He added, "Even when they agree to fill a position, they are stating that 1) they can hold it open indefinitely, and 2) they can replace a lead forecaster or journeyman forecaster with an intern."

According to the Washington Post, Greg Romano, a Weather Service spokesman, predicted that only 50 NWS employees would take the early retirement. The Post article quoted Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.)--a member of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, which oversees the Weather Service--as saying: "They better be very careful not to cut critical jobs. I think it is wrongheaded budgetary planning, and we're going to have to try to reverse it." Nelson was particularly upset that the NWS was "unbelievably" offering early-outs to 13 of the 42 employees at the Hurricane Center
after he had pushed Congress to add four positions to their staff to reduce the use of military personnel during hurricane season. I share these concerns, and hope the NWS amends the plans so that senior operational forecasters at the NHC and local NWS offices are offered early outs in a more intelligent fashion.

My next blog will be on Wednesday, concerning the International Environmental Data Rescue Organization. I will be travelling the for the next week, and will not be able to respond to user queries during that time.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2. F5
I think this is just plain nuts. While I'm all for smaller government, you have to do it where it makes sense. There is so much largesse in the government that cuts could be made elsewhere without affecting the NWS. The primary responsibility of the US Government is to protect its citizens. While you can debate the extent of what that "protection" is, I think it's clear that the services the NWS provides would fall into that category.

I can't imagine what would possess someone to think this would be the right thing to do.
My husband has worked for NASA contractors for the past 20 years, so I have a pretty good idea of the mindset.
Let us hope they show some wisdom in this.

And if Bill Nelson is really that concerned, perhaps he shouldnt waste resources by playing hurricane hunter. You can bet that ride will show up in campaign ads.
They think its the right thing to do because how else are they going to get rid of the NWS so that we all have to pay for our weather forecasts. I mean, why is it the government's responsibility to provide its tax paying citizens with something as basic and important as free weather forecasts (total sarcasim).
Why not cut the positions of the genius forecasters (elsewhere in the government and administration) who predicted that the Iraq war was necessary (based on an imminent threat), that it would be over quickly, that it would improve stability in the region, and that it would help in the fight against terrorism?
From Dr Master's 1st link~ Melbourne Weather Forecast (my town) Office 26 total employees ~ 11 will be offered VERA. That's the 2nd highest % for an early offer retirement, barely behind Miami.

As for Bill Nelson (also my backyard)~ I believe wftv showed that on the news. I've e-mailed him a few times on which way i felt he should vote on these weather bills. The hurricane hunters take people with them frequently, since they are going anyways. The local tv meteroligists & reporters go on any active season. I'm glad Bill Nelson has taken an intrest in it & is strongly against these cuts. So far he has always been on the same side of the fence as the general consenses at WU as to how a weather bill should be voted on.

Sarah I do have to totally agree on the mindset of the VERA program. My dad retired as a NASA contractor on the same program. He felt he had to, since the VERA package gave him a better retirement package than if he waited another year & 1/2 to retirement age. My husband is employed there but not as a contractor. We see it all the time.
lol snowboy~ I think we found our answer!
If they take people frequently, perhaps thats one thing they need to cut. Why should they have to waste resources doing PR while trying to collect critical storm data?
>> There is so much largesse in the government that cuts could be made elsewhere without affecting the NWS.

well, duh, A republican is in power. We "need" more money for the military.


I think this applies


:-( I want to work at the national weather service one day. This is not what I want to hear. A very sad day. How much more can government cut? I have already lost my medica insurance what next?

Typical republican thinking.

*(note my parents are huge republicans)
hey great comic michalp, but laughs aside - in my view weather forecasting is one of the core responsibilities of government and given the predictions of more intense storms as the climate warms it would seem prudent that if anything capacity should be expanded and not cut in the meteorology field.
12. F5
Is there some reason some of you have to make this into a republican issue? You'll take any and every opportunity to bash republicans. It's really pathetic. It's highly likely this would be going on regardless of who is in the White House. You think the President sits there and reviews the NWS budget? Get a grip people.

In fact, discretionary spending, even discounting the Iraq war has gone up under Bush. He is no fiscal conservative, and Congress never has been.

There are plenty of cuts that can/should be made to government spending that has nothing to do with covering for the Iraq war. Those cuts just shouldn't be happening at the NWS.
13. F5
lightning10...

There's no such thing as a free lunch. Everything has a cost and health insurance is not a right.
Don't worry F5, the media will scare the public into returning Republicans to Congress in the mid-term. It's to their financial advantage.
I wonder what model of Mercedes Dan Sobien comes to work in.
But this really doesn't have anything to do with the Administration or Congress. This is about the National Weather Service's plans for their own budget allocations.

Look, I have no desire to defend either political party in anything. But according to this Washington Post story the Administration calls for budget increases.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/13/AR2006021302024.html

"The Bush administration's fiscal 2007 budget request seeks an additional $43 million for the Weather Service and would bring spending to about $882 million. Some of the extra funding would go to strengthen the U.S. tsunami warning program, to enhance data buoys in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and to improve telecommunications."
hey F5, for the record FREE medical coverage IS a right in Canada, Germany, France, Austria, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, all of Scandinavia, and in fact pretty much all of the 1st world except the USA...
Carina just keeps on pumping - 115kt, 927mb!!
Typical that this blog turns into a nothing but a political cockfight. I come here to learn about weather, not listen to a bunch of wannabe's talk about who should be blamed for what. Stick to weather and I think the conversation would be much more educational to those of us who are trying to learn a thing or two.
!!!!!!!!!!

20060227.1344.f13.x.ir1km.14SCARINA-115kts-927mb-158S-796E

T6.0 from two agencies, T6.5 from MET! 115kt/127kt respectively!

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_data/tc_pages/thumbs/SHEM/14S.CARINA/ols/ir/1km/20060227.1344.f13.x.ir1km.14SCARINA.115kts-927mb-158S-796E.jpg[/img]

La reunion says continued strengthening, JTWC says weakening - but as the JTWC said it would be a Cat 1 2 days ago...

Jupiter, you may want to try out my site. It's small as yet, but at least we have a separate area for discussions like this.
Shoot, forgot to change the code for image:


Posted By: snowboy at 8:09 PM GMT on February 27, 2006.

...in my view weather forecasting is one of the core responsibilities of government...


The U.S. Federal Government's responsibilities were laid out in The Constitution, which doesn't mention weather forecasting.

I believe defense of the colonies was one of the primary concerns.
Thanks Colby. I will check it out.

Posted By: snowboy at 9:52 PM GMT on February 27, 2006.

hey F5, for the record FREE medical coverage IS a right in Canada, Germany, France, Austria, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, all of Scandinavia, and in fact pretty much all of the 1st world except the USA...


I can copy excerpts similar to the following until the cows come home:

As Canada's Slow-Motion Public Health System Falters, Private Medical Care Is Surging

By CLIFFORD KRAUSS
Published: February 26, 2006

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Feb. 23 — The Cambie Surgery Center, Canada's most prominent private hospital, may be considered a rogue enterprise.

Accepting money from patients for operations they would otherwise receive free of charge in a public hospital is technically prohibited in this country, even in cases where patients would wait months or even years in discomfort before receiving treatment.

The country's publicly financed health insurance system — frequently described as the third rail of its political system and a core value of its national identity — is gradually breaking down.



Wait lists for cancer Rx taking toll across Canada

By Lynn Haley

Edmonton – Canadian cancer patients are being forced to travel to the U.S. or face unacceptable wait times of up to nine months for radiation treatment, according to the Canadian Association of Radiation Oncologists (CARO).


25. F5
Snowboy,

I don't care if it's a "right" in other countries. In the USA, it's not a right, at least not at the federal level. The rights of the federal government are few and enumerated. I suppose if a state wanted to guarantee health benefits under it's own constitution, it could do so, provided it then taxed appropriately in order to pay for it. Given the advanced technology that is available to anyone in the USA, it wouldn't take long before we would be paying 100% of our income in taxes to support it. All you have to do is look at the projected costs of the Medicare prescription coverage bill that was passed recently.

I disagree to a certain extent with California on weather forecasting being one of the government's responsibilities though. While I certainly understand the point of view, the vital interests of this country, indeed, possibly the very defense of it could rely partially on accurate weather forecasting. That however, doesn't mean it should be a free-for-all at the public trough either.
I just posted a blog entry on Carina.
It's been my observation over the years that most federal government agencies involved with either science or the management of our natural resouces are chronically underfunded. This seems to be true no matter which party is in office. Agencies I can think of include the NWS, U.S.Geological Survey, the National Park Service and the Forest Service just to name a few. I have a friend who works for the USGS who has feared for his job for the last several years. This may be because these agencies are not considered very glamourous, or don't get politicians reelected, etc. This is unfortunate because these agencies all perform vital functions. Meanwhile, departments such as Homeland Security have morphed into huge new bureaucracies which couldn't get their act together when responding to Katrina.

We can contact our senators and congressmen, but sadly, most Americans won't pay attention to what's going on with the NWS until they end up having to pay just to get a weather forecast.
The new NWS plan:

Automated weather stations sending data via wireless internet, collected and analyzed by computers that also issue the forecasts! Good Luck!! Just need a few IT guys to keep the machines running.
Tropical Storm Emma has developed in the South Indian Ocean at 18.7S 115.5E; currently at 35 kts (40 mph) and 997 mb:

Actually I have a slightly more beningn view of this. The administration doesnt really care about cutting the NWS. What they want to do is propose cuts for popular agencies, then retreat when popular outrage makes the cuts impossible. Then Bush and his cronies can say "It's the democrats fault we have record deficits--we propose cuts and they kill them!"

It's a cynical game.
>> Is there some reason some of you have to make this into a republican issue? You'll take any and every opportunity to bash republicans.

umm, they are in charge. It comes with the teritory.
How about we just stop the politics? *flags lots of posts as spam*

Carina is just exploding!

BULLETIN DU 28 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 915 HPA.
POSITION LE 28 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 16.4 SUD / 79.0 EST
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2490 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 18S/77.2E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 18.9S/74.7E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 19.2S/72.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.


915mb!!!!!!
Carina is just exploding!

BULLETIN DU 28 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 915 HPA.
POSITION LE 28 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 16.4 SUD / 79.0 EST
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2490 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 18S/77.2E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 18.9S/74.7E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 19.2S/72.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.

915mb!!!!!!


???????
ForecasterColby mail for you
My Blog is updated, go Carina go!
Carina now forecast to reach a 10-minute average of 120kt, or around 135kt 1-minute average - 155.25mph, on the Cat 5 threshold.
37. Inyo
Yes, there are plenty of government items that are bloated but i don't think ANY of the natural science agencies mentioned above are anything but anemically underfunded. (granted i work for the forest service and worked for the park service so maybe i am not impartial). It has been shown time and time again that better understanding things like hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and fires save countless lives and billions of dollars.. and that abuse of land areas via overuse, etc, can cause devestating effects elsewhere. It's pretty disturbing how the government (both parties) is willing to sell off public land and cut hurricane research, etc, while dumping money into garbage we don't need.

that being said...

the storm is here! i was up in the mountains where the rain is pretty heavy... the radar indicates a lot off the coast.. i wouldnt be surprised if we DO get 2-4 inches in the lowlands by the time it is done.. we will see
This site is hilarious, try Dr. Masters blog under 'redneck' mode :) Link
Weather will happen tomorrow.
I am proud to present 2006's first MONSTER!!



130kt/910mb!!!

Wow yer a mo'on, as enny fool kin plainly see. ah doesn't like yo' at all, ah reckon. Cyclone Carina now has winds of 130kt. <--- Didn't do too well with that last sentence.
Colby great pic :) not too bad on the sentence either :)
Inyo - glad to hear you're finally getting a good storm in Southern California. I work for a city in parks maintenance but the lack of funding for the Park Service and Forest Service has always bugged me. As for the NWS, all it takes is a look at a typical forecast discussion to tell you the computer models can't do it all.
Inyo

It does look good. Only thing that still has me worried is it looks like its picking up some speed. The current band of rain should be out of the area in a few hours. Looks like a lot of very light green is off the coast. After these darker greens and yellows move past.
Looks like Carina will reach Cat 5! How big is the eye? And, any chance it will hit Madagascar?
15nmi, and not much of one - it's only 2000 miles away :)
Colby thanks so much for the posts on Carina - an amazing storm to be sure. Love the images... Is there any land mass nearby, or can we cheer guilt-free as this one builds in strength?
48. iyou
You can check that out here snowboy, also sst's, etc., at - http://www.supertyphoon.com/sindian/
Hey Colby, just curious after looking at the Carina images youre posting-

Most look to me like they are taken from planes and from the captions I gather they are form the Navy.

It all makes me wonder what resources are available around the Southern Indian Ocean for the people in that part of the globe to follow storm activity? Does it all come from our Navy?

Just wondering.
Guilt-free..nothing for a thousand miles.
51. iyou
Oops, yes, thanks Colby for posting the images here and in your blog - you motivated me to search for more!
Sarah - none of those images are from planes (no hurricane hunter has the range to fly Carina from any landmass, that I know of). Most of the imagery I've posted comes from the NRL (Naval Research Lab), which can be found here.
53. Inyo
lightning, you could be right about the rate of the storm... the radar does imply that it is moving on through.. but on the other hand, the water vapor images don't show the front moving much at all in the last 5 hours! It's a tough call... i am calling for over 2 inches here though beacuse the cup outside seems to have about an inch of water in it, and it doenst look like the storm is even half done here.

remember that sometimes when it looks like the rain ends offshore, it is just a matter of the beam not penetrating out far enough... the western edge of the front will end the rain when it comes through but to the south the rain could go all the way to Hawaii for all we know!

Carina really is out in the middle of absolutely nowhere... is it common for storms to form out there? I've never heard of one before but i didnt used to frequent this blog.
Thanks Colby.
Well, looks like ANOTHER cat 5 storm goes in the GLOBAL record books!!!!!
check my blog I have a post showing the number of major hurricanes rising in ALL oceans!!!!
Concerning this:

Sarah - none of those images are from planes (no hurricane hunter has the range to fly Carina from any landmass, that I know of). Most of the imagery I've posted comes from the NRL (Naval Research Lab), which can be found...

It is interesting that funding for NRL to continue
doing just this is getting cut. You might not see these
images on the web after too much longer...
hey iyou - thanks for the SuperTyphoon site references, lots of info there
Personal opinion,

If the pressure is 910mb, it is a cat-5 storm.
60. iyou
Hey snowboy, you're welcome!! I love the hunt for good info!! Snow coming eh?? Yippee!!!
louastu - 910 mb would be a Cat 5 in the Atlantic (except for some cases like Wilma, which was a 155 mph Cat 4 with 892 mb pressure), however, pressure is lower for storms in the West Pacific, Indian Ocean, and South Pacific. See here for equivalent pressure for Atlantic and West Pacific (including the Indian Ocean).
Interesting, never knew that. Thanks for teaching me something new.
Take a look at this (using StSimonsIslandGAGuy's Link)
66. Inyo
I got confused when i saw the name 'Iyou'... its so similar to mine.

i don't think stormsurge should affect the strength ranking of hurricanes... since a lot of how bad a storm surge is relates as much to the shape and topography of the coastline as it does to the strength of a hurricane
sounds like Southern California might get their rain after all...
Authorities warned of the possibility of mudslides in parts of the Angeles National Forest northeast of Los Angeles, where as much as 10 inches of rain were expected to fall between Monday night and Tuesday. (this area recently burned)

Until Monday, 10.7 inches of rain had fallen on the Los Angeles area since last July, 5.3 inches less than normal and 23 inches less than had fallen by this time last year.
Last year was the second-wettest year on record for Los Angeles, as 33.9 inches of rain fell on the city.
SAN FRANCISCO, California (AP) -- A storm bringing wind gusts of nearly 100 mph and heavy rains toppled trees, power lines and a 30-ton construction crane Monday night.

What's going on out there my west coast weather friends?
Argh! Carina doesn't seem to have quite made it.

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 78.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.9S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.5S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.1S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.0S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 78.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST
WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM A DEVELOPING RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE
SYSTEM. A DEVELOPING HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN
THE POLEWARD RIDGE, CAUSING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK BY TAU 36.
INTENSITY OF TC 14S WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVOR-
ABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMMA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.


Dr Master's I think had a blog on this once or our topic wandered in that direction...

The dust bowl hit at a time when the storm cycle was high~ the mid '30 & that cycle is high again. It was interesting to note in this article the conditions in the eastern pacific, at the time, was cungruent with La Nina.
I've updated my blog with info on Carina and La Nina.
& forecasted to weaken...

I'm lovin the Carina pics but...

If an image looks like it is going to be too big for the blog & blow it out, similiar to our current state~ Between the symboles put...

img border=0 src=address width=600 hieght=600

Forgot yeasterday~ weekly ENSO update out
The SST anomilies for last year in the 4 different NINO regions

The week's SST anomilies. The hot stop just west of Central America seems to be cooling again. La Nina is still on...
Something on weather balloons
Skyepony,
Orange County, CA has broken clouds with the rain mostly over until a chance on Thursday. We got about 1/4" to 1/2" here. Enjoying the brief change from sun and sun.
77. dcw
Well, maybe Carina is only going through an ERC...check this out:

She's baaaaaaaaaaaack:

I like the idea of "guilt-free" hurricanes. Kinda like guilt-free chocolate or (name your favorite snack)!
Unfortunately, not too many 'canes in the Atlantic basin are guilt-free :-(
Now, guilt-freely, look at the 2nd to last image I posted and tell me what the heck is with the eye jump!
83. Inyo
Authorities warned of the possibility of mudslides in parts of the Angeles National Forest northeast of Los Angeles, where as much as 10 inches of rain were expected to fall between Monday night and Tuesday. (this area recently burned)

No major area of the ANF (where i work) hasn't burned in the last 3 or 4 years... the area which burned recently is just southwest of us in the Simi Hills. Even without recent fires, the area is extremely flood prone due to its steep topography and shallow soils. I havent heard of rainfalls over 10 inches up there at any of the recording stations, but some areas definitely got 6-8 inches of rain. I wasnt out in the field today but tomorrow i will see how much runoff occurred.

The storm for friday could dump up to an inch more in the mountains (less in the valleys) but of course after 6 inches of rain, the ground is saturated so even an inch could cause the creeks to rise. There are some indications that another warm wet storm like last night will move in next week.. of course there are also indications that it will go north or not form at all. It will be interesting.. as of right now, if we get about 3 inches in LA, we will be caught up with our average rainfall for this time of year, despite the extremely dry winter. (it was a wet fall, looks like it may be a wet spring). If this occurs, it will be notable as a year of two rainy 'seasons' with a mini summer in between. It is yet to be seen how this will affect the plants.

Also i was digging through old documents today and found one referencing some old cloud seeding operations.. apparently there was cloud seeding going on up there as recently as the early 90s. It has been terminated because of liability (people die all the time in flash floods, with or without cloud seeding, but no one wants to be linked to that) but apparently they still seed in the Sierras and some remote parts of the coast range.. weird stuff
Buster, could you post them?
There goes Carina - shear finally got her:

No, the plane is a) much too small and b) would be in the clouds. It's possible they were just static on the signal, since those were older storms.
Yeah, that's just signal static.
Oh, and, why should the government provide free forecasts? Other than life-threatening situations, I see no reason for them to spend billions telling you its 76 tomorrow.
93. F5
ForecasterColby,

Lol, good point. I can think of some good reasons to have NOAA and NSSL, as well as CPC, but basic weather, I have the same questions you do.
The reason that the government should spend billions of dollars to tell you that it will be 76F tomorrow (God I wish it would be) is because that would just be the start of limitations. Then, they will privatize satellites (you wouldn't have been able to watch a Carina, or probably even know that one exists), radar (good luck trying to find the BWER of a supercell 20 miles away without it), and then, the severe weather info would eventually be cutoff. And if you don't think that this would ever happen, just research what it's like trying to get ANY weather info in Europe (for free, at least). Not that this matters, because there's no support for this, and Santorum looks to be out of office after the election anyways.

Read this
TornadoTy - a private satellite won't be there unless there is a reason for it to be. Perhaps they'll charge for viewing. But WE ALREADY ARE. We (or most of us, I don't do so directly yet) pay taxes, and NOAA/NHC/etc take billions a year to run - so each american adult is paying $1000+ a year for it!
I think I'll do a blog on that tomorrow...hrm.
Real interesting area of moisture in the NW carib:

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES OVER MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE
GULF EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
25N-30N E OF 93W. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N93W. AT THE SFC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
STATE AND MUCH OF THE GULF. SURFACE S/SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE
AREA AND HAS WARMED THE TEMPS TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF ORGANIZED
CLOUDS IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WHICH IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY SKIRT THE N GULF COAST LATE THU/EARLY FRI BEFORE
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.

Trough by itself doesn't mean anything...but there's some real low shear moving towards it. I don't like this one bit.
Critics charge that S.786 is an attempt to silence NWS. "If enacted, S.786 would prohibit the National Weather Service from providing any service, including marine, public and aviation forecasts (other than severe weather warnings) to either the public, the media, academia, or state and local emergency management officials if private sector weather companies are or could provide a similar service for a fee," Richard Hirn, general counsel for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, wrote in a letter to Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C.



Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for The Weather Underground Inc., a small online weather information site, doesn't think it's that far-fetched. "The bill is designed to be private-industry friendly," he says. "I think it was written as a favor for large weather providers." He believes that the bill would eliminate the forecast data his company currently gets from the NWS, forcing his company to purchase that information from a large commercial source such as AccuWeather.

David Moran, assistant professor of law at Wayne State University, says the bill is ambiguous and contradictory. "I believe the bill is poorly drafted because, after reading it several times, I'm not at all clear as to exactly what information the NWS would be prohibited from releasing to the public," he writes via E-mail. "First, it does not define some key terms. ... Second, [certain provisions] appear to be flatly contradictory. How is the NWS supposed to issue to the public all of its data (not just severe weather information) without thereby providing a service that would compete with private entities?"

With the exception of the Postal Service, the government typically steers away from competing with the private sector. "But what is happening here is people are wanting to make an industry out of government assets," says Richard Griffin, a partner at Texas law firm Jackson Walker, who contends that taxpayer-funded weather data should be equally available to everyone.
link
I thought ya'll liked this website:) This bill is written for accuweather.

I ran across somewhere once where someone from NOAA commented with some wonderful analogy about to understand weather better & improve storm forecasting you just can't concentrate on the storms. The cost of the disemimation is nothing compared to the cost of gathering it. If this bill like this of the privacy policy bit last summer passes, ya'll say goodbye to your little weather habit cause the satalite info, hurricane hunters & there dropnode data, as well as, most likely this site would be gone. You'd be looking at Accuweather after a commercial to see your forecast & that's about it.
Inyo thanks for that burn correction.

Colby ~ go to my first ever blog. We searched & hashed that bill as well as other things of similiar nature. Dr Masters did a blog on the whole proposed policy change (seperate from the bill) that would stop NWS & etc from duplicating the weather info that the private sector could provide. Final results looked okay with NWS, not treading on TV & radio's markets by not requiring NWS forecast being used unless the weather is extreme. The public has free access through other mediums as well as the same types of access as the private sector, when it comes to the multible wonders that NWS has to offer.

Basically only 138 people commented (shame shame, after all our hard work & Dr Masters urgings). Though I noticed wunderground was mentioned more than once in the comments:) 128 against (yeah), from the public. 7 for, including a long letter from the weather channel. 1 completly off topic. & 2 against because it wasn't clearly stated well enough that the government would hand over all the weather info to privite industry & stop forecasting all together ~ 1 was accuweather & the other was National Council of Meteroligists (who by the way recomends NOAA not only stop forecasting but to help privite industry find the most profitable ways to package info for private industry to sell back to us).
105. Inyo
Posted By: ForecasterColby at 2:39 AM GMT on March 01, 2006.
Oh, and, why should the government provide free forecasts? Other than life-threatening situations, I see no reason for them to spend billions telling you its 76 tomorrow.


what? i can't imagine a single advantage to privatizing weather forecasts. Few people would be able to afford models.. most private companies would be feeding from a government feeding trough and making profit at the public's expense (in my opinion and from my experience, almost ALL government 'outsourcing' consists of this as it is a drastic loss in efficiency with a corresponding loss of quality.) Obviously, some things, like the local bakery or whatever, should not be government owned but when it comes to things like weather sattelites, hurricane hunter aircraft, and huge suypercomputers, it is always going to be a government sponsored affair.. and i'd rather pay one person (via taxes) to run the models than pay a company to pay another person to run the models plus everyone else involved taking a cut. I have worked both on the contractor and on the government side of things and so far i havent seen any advantage to this type of outsourcing.

i don't think we spend 1000 dollars a year on forecasting, that number is way off. the average american probably spends way less(what are there, a few hundred million people here, maybe half of them pay taxes?)

just look at california's electricity problems if you want to see another example. it got deregulated and went down the toilet.

it seems to me that we have two choices: big inefficient government, or big inefficient corrupt corporations. Personally, i'd take the government as a lesser of two evils.

besides, the quality of accuweather, etc, is in my opinion, abysmal. the highest quality in my opinion comes from the NWS and from the small 'amateur' people who interpret it.. not accuweather or twc
106. Inyo
Skyepony, you mention that the dust bowl occurred at a time of active Atlantic hurricanes. Interestingly, the dust bowl also coincided with heavy rains in Southern California. I guess last year we had all three of these again. It's hard to say if they are linked but perhaps a drier winter in California will be a sign of less Atlantic Hurricanes.

on the other hand, it looks like it could be a very wet few weeks in California now, so maybe the dry trend has ended.
These were 2 entrys left in the comments concerning the cost we pay as taxpayers for our weather info & the info we get about other places around the world.

Guygee left~

I find the "save money issue" laughable.
NWS budget: $617 million
US taxpayers: 138 million
$ per taxpayer: $4.47"

$4.47 per year from each taxpayer, which includes the cost of all the free information on the internet, plus providing "corporate welfare" in the form of information subsidies for all of the TV stations, radio stations, and private weather companies who also get the information for free.

Sounds like a good deal to me!

hoochbear left~

about 295 million people,
$618 million, $2.10 per person.

Also we are in agreements around the world, many nations depend apon our satilites & info, to know if the big one is coming. All these Carina pics Have been US or France that i've seen...
Dr Masters did a blog on this once, here's a chart out of that blog (the NOAA one hasn't been updated since '95). It's the pattern of the The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). It's been a regular shift in current patterns, in the n atlantic, that affects the SST in a somewhat predictable time frame.

I had a big AH HA about the AMO today~ maybe... I ran across where Chandler's Wobble (the continuous wobble of the earth's axis) had stopped & just restarted again a few weeks ago after 6 weeks of no moving. Now it is out of it's regular pattern putting us in an anomilous event~ This rarely happens. Bought freaked when i saw the historical dates...(1932-38 and 1958-1964) as these are peak periods in the AMO cycle. This corralation i have made on my own, the link only discusses how these periods are active for volcanos & earthquakes.
112. F5
Skyepony,

The NWS budget is just one part of the NOAA budget, which is well over several billion dollars. Also, it's highly likely that a lot of the costs, especially from an infrastructure perspective, are NOT included specifically in the NWS budget. Someone had to pay for all the satellites, someone is paying for all the computer hardware, telephony, internet, etc. If you could really isolate it, I'd say the cost is a lot higher than $4.47/taxpayer.

Of course, you also have to consider that while there are a great number of people who use this information, the vast majority of Americans don't know and don't care, so in effect, you are asking them to subsidize your hobby.
113. F5
Inyo,

Gotta love your (mis)characterization of business. Of course, business can only be big and corrupt right. Never mind business is the engine that makes this country run. Please. Governmental agencies are massive, bloated bureaucracies that are in no way nearly as efficient as private companies. If private companies ran the way the federal government did, they would be out of business in short order.

There may be some that are corrupt, and there may be some that are inefficient, but they are the exception, not the norm.
F5~ The bill would not make private industry pay for NOAA & NASA type weather info gathering~ We would still do that. But all that info gathered would be handed free to 1 or 2 big weather companys & we would pay or watch commercials to see what those companys chose to show us. The NWS budget is used in this calculation because they diseminate the weather info. The only cost cutting this bill would give.

Boaters, farmers, stock players & many more were outraged (more so than the weather geeks in numbers) all over the country. In Central FL it's hard to get a stormy forcast on peak theme park days since Accuweather is owned by Disney. I couldn't imagine if that was the only forecast available.

~nite ya'll 56.8F
Looks like Carina will be gone soon

take absolute total offense to bdkennedy1 remark "What kind of Mercedes does Dan Sobien drive?"

I know Dan Sobien, our NWSEO president, and although he works hard for the welfare of the NWS employees, he also works hard on keeping Draconian cuts from occurring in the weather service budget that will affect the safety of Americans. Some gratitude should be given to the NWSEO for uncountable issues such as allowing NWS forecasts and WSR 88D images on the Internet for your pleasure.

Dan Sobien is also a forecaster just like I am who just happens to be able to sacrifice all his spare time for the NWSEO. On a forecaster's salary, I can't afford a Mercedes. And for him to get any extra money on the side is against Federal Law. We are a Federal Union. The rules are different for us. bdkennedy1's stereo-type is typical for the mentality of anti-union individuals.

As far as the FY 2007 budget increase for the NWS. It appears like a 5% increase but most of that increase is ear-marked for individual programs. Tsunami program, more forecasters at the NHC etc. We will still have a budget shortfall and will be worse due to real inflation. Our local office office and supply and travel budget dropped from $30K to $10K; a cut of two thirds. The Florida Governor's Hurricane convention is in Fort Lauderdale this year. Our office was asked to give a presentation at it. Normally the boss would go but he asked me to go instead because my mom lives there and I can stay there saving money for our travel budget. In the wake of Katrina how pathetic is this? What are we now some 3rd rate country that can't afford to put governement officials up at even the Budgetel Motel for an important lifesaving conference?
117. F5
nwseo1,

Welcome to the real world. This is what companies do every single day. They cut budgets, lay people off, cut back on travel, reduce expenses, etc.

Just because it's the government doesn't mean you should just be able to spend whatever you want whenever you want.
119. jeffB
This is what companies do every single day. They cut budgets, lay people off, cut back on travel, reduce expenses, etc.

And if they cut back on essential travel, reduce training and education spending, lay off their best people, and discontinue services that their customers rely upon, they don't stay in business for long.

When the NWS doesn't have funds to send personnel to make presentations at a hurricane conference, something is radically, pathetically wrong.
Hey Chandler wobble person:

Link

Check your sources.
If governments weren't issuing weather forecasts the insurance companies would be.
122. Inyo
Governmental agencies are massive, bloated bureaucracies that are in no way nearly as efficient as private companies. If private companies ran the way the federal government did, they would be out of business in short order.

hmm.. not my observation at all... from my observation businesses work for a lot of things but for things everyone needs, they just don't work. the fact is that 'big business' will never expand its efforts beyond where is profitable in the short term... for instance they would not provide hurricane warnings to poor people. So do the poor deserve to just die then, beacuse they can't pay for the warnings?

Anyway i just don't agree with what you are saying at all and its probably just a difference of opinion... if the goverment is so 'bloated' we should work on making it better, in my opinion, not discard it for wal-mart
123. F5
Inyo,

We absolutely should work on making it better. However, one option for making it better is outsourcing, or privatizing.

Now in reference to what you said about hurricane warnings, that's not quite the way it would work of course. Assuming a private company did run weather forecasts, they aren't going to make their money selling it to individuals. They would make their money selling it to other companies, including news stations, or provide it to consumers a la TWC. They may have a subscription process for individuals who want more details, but it's not like they would provide the data only to individuals who would pay. That wouldn't make any business sense at all. Now, where most TV stations, radio stations, etc., get their data from NWS, they would instead get it from TWC, or Accuweather, or whoever, and they would still have nightly/hourly/whatever weather reports. To assume otherwise isn't really the proper way to view the potentialities.
with the debate now back to operations of meteorology, like forecasting, i just have to wonder a few things....

who is going to hire all the older forecasters who aren't old enough for those pensions? how will that affect any forecaster coming out of college facing 15-20k in student loans and not able to get a job?
when will the private industry step up to the plate and bring the balance between available forecasters and available jobs to a balance?
when will the higher ups in colleges/universities, the AMS (which I am a member of), the NWAS, and others, finally step up and do a full census of the field and see when the balance between all meteorologists and all employers directly or indirectly in meteorolgy will ever be reached?

if I am pushing something, it's a proposal I made to the AMS CWCE (Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise) a few weeks back (to be voted on at their next meeting, so no hurry) to take such a survey and maybe use that info to determine how the industry has to go?

It's an idea that actually has gotten some good feedback on by several people on all sides of the field. now if it only can be done, then all the questions on the fate of Voulntary Early Retirement and other workforce issues could have a solid base to work from.

just my two cents.....
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