WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Early 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:22 AM GMT on April 07, 2011

Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. 

A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued April 6 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is nearly identical to their forecast made in December, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1996, 1955, and 2006.  The first four years listed all had neutral to La Niña SST's during hurricane season, while 2006 had El Niño SST's.  The average activity for these years was 12.6 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 4.8 major hurricanes.

This year, the forecasters have introduced a new statistical model for their  April forecasts.  There are four components in this model:

1. Average sea-level pressure in March around the Azores in the subtropical Atlantic.

2. The average of January through March sea-surface temperatures (SST's) in the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa.

3. Average sea-level pressure in February and March for the southern tropical Pacific ocean west of South America.

4. Forecasts of September's SST in the tropical Pacific using a dynamical model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 

The first two components are loosely linked together.  Statistical studies have shown that a weaker subtropical high near the Azores, combined with warmer SST's off the coast of Africa in March are associated with weak winds near the surface and aloft from August to October.  This decrease in wind speeds reduces wind shear which can disrupt forming storms.  These March conditions also are associated with warmer SST's in August to October, which is also favorable for more tropical storms.   For this forecast, the first component is strongly favorable for increased hurricane activity, while the second component is weakly negative.

The last two components represent the changes in sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure that are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  Briefly speaking,  El Niño conditions (warm sea-surface temperatures) are not favorable for Atlantic hurricanes.  For more info on ENSO and hurricanes, Jeff has this article.

Using the ECMWF model as guidance (see Figure 1), the CSU group believes that SST's in the tropical Pacific will be neutral (less than 0.5°C from normal).  This would have a small negative effect on hurricane activity.  However, the tropical Pacific sea-level pressure shows that the atmosphere looks like a La Niña event is still going on.  This is strongly favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity in the CSU group's model.

Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in March 2011. The ECMWF forecast used by the CSU group is represented by the dark orange square.  The forecasts for August-September-October (ASO) show that 5 models predict El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America ( the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

How accurate are the April forecasts? While the formulas used by CSU do well in making hindcasts--correctly modeling the behavior of past hurricane seasons--their April hurricane season forecasts have had no skill in predicting the future. This year's April forecast is using a new system and has not yet produced a verified forecast.  The scheme used in the past three years successfully predicted active hurricane seasons for 2008 and 2010, but failed to properly predict the relatively quiet 2009 hurricane season. A different formula was used prior to 2008, and the April forecasts using that formula showed no skill over a simple forecast using climatology. CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.


Figure 2.
Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is less than zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H= Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

The  British  private  forecasting  firm  Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.  (TSR),   issued  their  2011  Atlantic hurricane season forecast on April 5. They are also calling for  a  very  active  year: 14. 2 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. We would round that to 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.   This  compares to their forecast issued in December of 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes,   and intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 55%  chance  of  an  above-average  hurricane season, 28% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 17%  chance  of  a  below normal season. TSR bases their April forecast on predictions  that  sea  surface temperatures this fall in the tropical  Atlantic  will  be  above  about  0.08°C above average, and trade  wind  speeds  will  be  about 0.2  m/s  slower  than average.  The decrease in the trade wind speeds is favorable for enhanced hurricane activity, while the forecast SST's are expected to be neutral for hurricane activity.

TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 13% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 11% skill for hurricanes, and 10% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Rob's critiques of the April forecasts
I have to note that Jeff and I wrote this article together.  He wrote the general framework before the forecasts were issued, while I wrote the details based on the actual forecasts.  So the preceding text is a joint production.  However, I have a few observations to make that are my responsibility alone.

First, I am disappointed that the CSU group has changed forecast models only after three seasonal forecasts.  This makes it very difficult to assess the skill of the current forecast using past performance.  This is very important for forecast users, and they do it everyday.  For example, I tend to discount a forecast of rain if it comes from a source that over-forecasts rain (The boy who cried wolf problem).

In the documentation that came with the April forecast, the CSU group argue that the hindcasts show the new forecast model has skill.  However, I think hindcasts are a poor substitute for real forecasts in understanding the skill of a statistical forecast model, like that of the CSU's group.  As Jeff noted, the previous forecast model did well with the hindcasts and yet had mixed results with the actual forecasts.  This does not give me confidence that the new forecast model will be superior to the previous model.

From a philosophical viewpoint, I am inherently cautious about statistical forecast models like the one used by the CSU group.  Essentially, they look at what happened in the past and use that to predict the future.  However, for making forecasts, we assume that the relationships in space and time between the predictors (such as the average March sea-level pressure around the Azores) and the predictands (Atlantic hurricane activity) does not change as we move forward in time.  In a world with climate change, that's a tricky assumption to make.

In any event, it is customary in the meteorological community to continue running older forecast guidance models after the introduction of newer models.  This allows forecasters and forecast users to leverage their knowledge of the forecast skill of the older model and gain insight into the forecast skill of the new model.  The CSU group really should have included the forecast from the previous statistical forecast system in this forecast.     

I am uneasy with some of the methodology choices made in implementing the forecast model.  Data for the first three predictors was obtained from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), NOAA's newest and most advanced reanalysis product.  However, CFSR data for 2010 and 2011 has not been released yet, so the CSU group used NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR), NOAA's first-generation reanalysis, to fill in the gaps.  Due to differences in design, resolution, etc., CFSR and NNR can have different depictions of the state of the atmosphere.  So using NNR's March 2011 average SLP instead of CFSR's could alter the forecast in unexpected ways.  It would be interesting to see how CFSR's 2010-2011 data changes the results. 

In any event, we will have to wait and see what the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011 brings.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Chicklit:

No Dear, Ag Dept. bsers are the minority.
Most of the government workers are social workers, teachers, cops and the like who on a daily basis are on the front lines of preserving 'The American Way' despite all odds.
I am a witness and would sign an affidavit in court to this effect.
Gosh I wish I was with you. Our local community collage teachers are about to go on strike for higher wages. I wish they had a clue about what the rest of us have had to deal with since the economies crash and burn. It colors my view right now.
Quoting twincomanche:
Gosh I wish I was with you. Our local community collage teachers are about to go on strike for higher wages. I wish they had a clue about what the rest of us have had to deal with since the economies crash and burn. It colors my view right now.

Have you ever wondered why we're all so squeezed and our government is in deep debt, but the stock market is now over 12,000?
There is your answer. The money is all going in one direction: to the top. And very little is coming out of there. Anyway, listening to the public service workers on this line:
PublicSafetyClarkCountyWI
1503. Levi32
Quoting altesticstorm011:

I remember that concept being discussed last year. But everyone, for some reason, focuses on the Nino 3.4 region as the main region that drives the balance of activity between the Atlantic and Pacific. If you were going by that, 2004 would have been a 10 storm year at most. But then again, those cool waters that you posted off Central/South America that existed in 2004 (the Nino 1 and 2 regions) were warm throughout most of the 2005 hurricane season and that season was above average in both basins. Educate me.


Yes, but look what was happening in 2005. The eastern Pacific was warm north of the equator, but the Caribbean and Atlantic were much warmer than that. The relative difference was still in favor of the Atlantic, and thus it won that battle. It is the relative anomalies that matter. Where the warmest water is will tend to support the most upward motion. However, the fact that the water was that warm in the eastern Pacific still allowed them to have a decent year, near normal.


Quoting Chicklit:

Have you ever wondered why we're all so squeezed and our government is in deep debt, but the stock market is now over 12,000?
There is your answer. The money is all going in one direction: to the top. And very little is coming out of there. Anyway, listening to the public service workers on this line:
PublicSafetyClarkCountyWI

Yeah, that's gotta be it.
Blog Update Puerto Rico Weather Center
Quoting Chicklit:

Have you ever wondered why we're all so squeezed and our government is in deep debt, but the stock market is now over 12,000?
There is your answer. The money is all going in one direction: to the top. And very little is coming out of there. Anyway, listening to the public service workers on this line:
PublicSafetyClarkCountyWI
End of discussion. The trouble with a one track mind is it's narrow gauge and lack of switching facilities. I really disagree with you. Looking for villains is a bad route and wrong way to fix the problems.
1507. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Quoting: Levi32, and Altesticstorm011
I made my predictions last Monday 16, 9, 5, but if anything looks promising, i might bump it up a knotch or two next month.
I've been comparing SST since late last month, and gulf warmth wise we are beating 2010, 2007, 2005 by a big margin, and are pretty close, but just a little warmer than 2008.
2011:
Atlantic Wide View


Gulf of Mexico


2008:
Atlantic Wide View


Gulf of Mexico


And Levi, you're right, These two are pretty close analog years.


That's thanks to the weird winter we had over North America which allowed SSTs to remain warmer in the tropics.
pot, say hello to kettle
Levi, all this data makes it seem like the 2004-2005 two-year combine was just extremely awkward for the western hemisphere, as if it was like a bowel movement built up over seventy years that the earth finally decided to relieve itself of.

I mean, how often do you see the equatorial water in the EPAC that cold yet the water in the tropical basin warm?

My entire point on the 2010 hypical letdown was pretty much focused on the question on why 2010 wasn't more like 2005, in which 7 storms formed in the months of June and July put together. 2010's SSTs were a bit warmer than 2005's in just about every place in the Atlantic.
Quoting Levi32:


That's thanks to the weird winter we had over North America which allowed SSTs to remain warmer in the tropics.

Isn't it true that in most second-year La Nina years that SSTs in the Atlantic cool to near normal? Take 2008 as an example.

The "weird" winter in the CONUS was signified by a cold January featuring more snowstorms than usual and an abrupt end to the winter for a large area of the country in early-mid February.
1511. Patrap
Quoting Levi32:


However, the fact that the water was that warm in the eastern Pacific still allowed them to have a decent year, near normal.



Another point on that issue: if both basins had strong hurricane seasons, then where was the shear?
Quoting Patrap:
They's duckin and runnin in Packerland...
Quoting twincomanche:
End of discussion. The trouble with a one track mind is it's narrow gauge and lack of switching facilities. I really disagree with you. Looking for villains is a bad route and wrong way to fix the problems.

Unless the villains culprits are pointed out and made to change, things will continue as they are--with all the money rushing to the very top--until the entire system collapses from its own groaning top-heaviness. It's our privilege and responsibility as Americans to say what we need to say and do what we need to do to prevent that.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Unless the villains are pointed out and made to change, things will continue as they are--with all the money rushing to the very top--until the entire system collapses from its own groaning top-heaviness. It's our privilege and responsibility as Americans to say what we need to say and do what we need to do to prevent that.
Phhhhht.
Quoting twincomanche:
Phhhhht.

Great answer. ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Unless the villains culprits are pointed out and made to change, things will continue as they are--with all the money rushing to the very top--until the entire system collapses from its own groaning top-heaviness. It's our privilege and responsibility as Americans to say what we need to say and do what we need to do to prevent that.

Are you talking about the government or the rich people and businesses?
Quoting altesticstorm011:

Are you talking about the government or the rich people and businesses?
All of them. He has no clue.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
emAnd Levi, you're right, These two are pretty close analog years.


Gom maps are identical...?
Quoting sunlinepr:


Gom maps are the same...?
sorry, misread the URL, and copied the same pictue accidentally. Modified it if you look back.
Quoting altesticstorm011:

If so, I suggest a tattoo for him:

LOL
Quoting Levi32:


Yes, but look what was happening in 2005. The eastern Pacific was warm north of the equator, but the Caribbean and Atlantic were much warmer than that. The relative difference was still in favor of the Atlantic, and thus it won that battle. It is the relative anomalies that matter. Where the warmest water is will tend to support the most upward motion. However, the fact that the water was that warm in the eastern Pacific still allowed them to have a decent year, near normal.



Levi (or anyone else who can help),

where do you get these maps?


As discoveries of secret surf spots go, the incredible find by Rip Curl team members during a recent "Search" expedition in the jungles of Indonesia may be unrivaled.
What makes this latest wave discovery so fascinating is that it was made not on a coastline or island shore, but on a remote jungle river that gets pounded by a powerful tidal bore. But unlike other tidal bores that produce relatively small, mushy waves, this remarkable phenomenon pushes swells upstream in dream-like fashion at heights of 8 to 10 feet.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
sorry, misread the URL, and copied the same pictue accidentally. Modified it if you look back.


Thanks, good info...
When you compare both years, definitely, 2011 SSTs have more energy. Water is warmer and extends more to the North.
Quoting altesticstorm011:

Are you talking about the government or the rich people and businesses?

Since there has been a huge and unhealthy redistribution of wealth from the lower and middle classes to the very top over the past few decades, what would be your guess, JFV? ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Since there has been a huge and unhealthy redistribution of wealth from the lower and middle classes to the very top over the past few decades, what would be your guess, JFV?
The sky is falling, the sky is falling!!!!
Quoting Neapolitan:

Since there has been a huge and unhealthy redistribution of wealth from the lower and middle classes to the very top over the past few decades, what would be your guess, JFV?

Wrong Again, Neo.

I'll give you one more shot.
Quoting altesticstorm011:
Levi, all this data makes it seem like the 2004-2005 two-year combine was just extremely awkward for the western hemisphere, as if it was like a bowel movement built up over seventy years that the earth finally decided to relieve itself of.

I mean, how often do you see the equatorial water in the EPAC that cold yet the water in the tropical basin warm?

My entire point on the 2010 hypical letdown was pretty much focused on the question on why 2010 wasn't more like 2005, in which 7 storms formed in the months of June and July put together. 2010's SSTs were a bit warmer than 2005's in just about every place in the Atlantic.
I've noticed the same thing... It's some kind of Wierd tropical Pattern.

2004: 15,9,4 1st year active
2005: 26,14,7 2nd year active
2006: Quiet...
2007: 15,5,2 1st year active
2008: 16,8,5 2nd year active
2009: Quiet...
2010: 19,12,5 1st year active
2011: N/A 2nd year active
From the looks of the pattern the 1st active year is less active or has less major landfalls~ (2004 had bad landfalls as well as 2005) Wonder since 2011 is expected to have bad landfalling storms, that it could be more active than 2010... site's and people's predictions don't show it, but you never know until the season starts.
1531. eddy12
Neo here is a tip take some of your money buy some stock and ride the bull
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Wrong Again, Neo.

I'll give you one more shot.

Wrong about what? One more shot at what? Specifics, Kitty...
Quoting altesticstorm011:

If so, I suggest a tattoo for him:

Member for less than a month + shower curtain + stellar logic (not) = humm??
Oh good grief, hurricane season cannot come soon enough. Out for the night.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Wrong about what? One more shot at what? Specifics, Kitty...

How about answering the question to how many states there are as you have so dodged? How's that.

Just another disgruntled government employee Neo that had to come to realize that there are younger, more technologically savvy people out there than you. So sure, let's blame the coorporations with our left-wing agenda by taking your grief out on a weather blog with your political nonsense. Your colors show straight thru, bud.

You may have some on here who buys the story, but not all my friend. It's quite humorous, really. But at the same time, very sad.
Quoting Chicklit:

Have you ever wondered why we're all so squeezed and our government is in deep debt, but the stock market is now over 12,000?
There is your answer. The money is all going in one direction: to the top. And very little is coming out of there. Anyway, listening to the public service workers on this line:
PublicSafetyClarkCountyWI



Would you rather those of us vested in the market cash in our stocks(and pay capital gains taxes that do nothing but support government fat and those who do not produce)and bury the money in our back yards? Chicklit, not once in my life have I ever been employed by a person on welfare. Where else should the money go but up?

Keep advocating sticking it to big business and they will move offshore, taking their money with them. Speaking of big business, what of Jeffery Imelt and General Electric, how much have they been paying in taxes lately? Ask his Golf buddy at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.




1539. Ossqss
Quoting cat5hurricane:

How about answering the question to how many states there are as you have so dodged? How's that.

Just another disgruntled government employee Neo that had to come to realize that there are younger, more technologically savvy people out there than you. So sure, let's blame the coorporations with our left-wing agenda by taking your grief out on a weather blog with your political nonsense. Your colors show straight thru, bud.

You may have some on here who buys the story, but not all my friend. It's quite humorous, really. But at the same time, very sad.


Not to pile on, but he owes me a crisp $5 bill too
! :)



V^ "Table F-1. Income Limits for Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent of Families (All Races): 1947 to 2007". Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements. United States Census Bureau. Archived from the original on 2009-04-12. http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http%3A%2F%2F www.census.gov%2Fhhes%2Fwww%2Fincome%2Fhistinc%2Ff 01AR.html&date=2009-04-12. Retrieved 2009-04-12.

We're basically flatlining.
This is only based on income, not on jobs lost.
That picture is much worse.

Anyway, my son has a conservative social world view.
Just because he sees things differently than I do doesn't mean I do not still love him.
I remembr when he cried over stepping on a frog, so I know he has a heart.
1541. eddy12
ossqss i believe he does
1542. Levi32
Quoting altesticstorm011:

Isn't it true that in most second-year La Nina years that SSTs in the Atlantic cool to near normal? Take 2008 as an example.

The "weird" winter in the CONUS was signified by a cold January featuring more snowstorms than usual and an abrupt end to the winter for a large area of the country in early-mid February.


Well let's take a look:



The answer is that they are definitely cooler than the previous year, which makes sense, but not necessarily all the way to neutral, especially during warm AMO years when they usually remain warmer than normal.
1543. Patrap
Lawdy,...





Please take your op-ed's to the wu mail system.

1544. Patrap
1545. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:

Levi (or anyone else who can help),

where do you get these maps?


NOAA ESRL Monthly/Seasonal Composite Maps of NCEP Reanalysis Data
BR>V^ "Table F-1. Income Limits for Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent of Families (All Races): 1947 to 2007". Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements. United States Census Bureau. Archived from the original on 2009-04-12. http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http%3A%2F%2F www.census.gov%2Fhhes%2Fwww%2Fincome%2Fhistinc%2Ff 01AR.html&date=2009-04-12. Retrieved 2009-04-12.

We're basically flatlining.
This is only based on income, not on jobs lost.
That picture is much worse.




Haven't been on the comments since December...

The SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean seem to be about 1 degree C above average. (About 1.5 degrees F above average.)
Quoting Chicklit:

Have you ever wondered why we're all so squeezed and our government is in deep debt, but the stock market is now over 12,000?
There is your answer. The money is all going in one direction: to the top. And very little is coming out of there. Anyway, listening to the public service workers on this line:
PublicSafetyClarkCountyWI


So your saying you have no investments in the Stock Market. Thats too bad! But, don't blame those of us that have invested the ones you refer. Nothing wrong at all from investing in Companies especially those American companies that give them the ability to prosper. Let me remind you the companies companies they you are calling out are some of whom that does help pay for the salaries of a teachers by them paying taxes and giving jobs to others that pay taxes. Heck i am very surprised a teacher does not have a 401K! Very poor money management i would suggest.
1550. Levi32
Quoting altesticstorm011:

Another point on that issue: if both basins had strong hurricane seasons, then where was the shear?


The answer to that lies in the fact that there is a big difference between westerly shear and easterly shear (upper level winds) regarding their treatment of tropical entities. With the Atlantic being the dominant area of upward motion in 2005, the net wind direction in the EPAC at the 200mb level was anomalously from the east. While the Atlantic was the most favored for activity, easterly winds aloft, if not too strong, can enhance tropical wave development and allow a decent amount of activity in the eastern Pacific if SSTs are warm. That said, due to the monsoonal nature of almost all EPAC storms, easterly shear does more damage there than in the Atlantic where the trade winds are from the east.

It is worth pointing out as well that although the EPAC was slightly above normal in 2005 in terms of the total number of named storms (17; normal is 15) it had quite low ACE, with a below-average number of hurricanes (only 5; average is 8)

Quoting Chicklit:



And, please never forget that the top 50% pay 96.3% of the taxes. I'm curious, you probably thought "Rainbow Fish" to be a beautiful story, didn't you. The problem though, at the end, there were no truly beautiful fish left were there? Oh they all had one beautiful scale apiece, but that was it. Sounds pretty mediocre to me, and very sad.
we now have tornado watches for south central ontario just to my west
Funny the very Liberal non-sense on this blog....you all must be Sean Penn's children......GEESH!
1554. SeALWx
I would like to say thanks to Levi for for the interesting scientific and fact based discussions seen tonight. It reminds me a lot of the old blog atmosphere; people bringing information related to tropical weather in and asking questions of each other. Now this place seems overrun with people wanting their own personal soapbox to stand upon and spout opinions of varying degrees of coherency and scientific backing.
We used to be nuts about weather, now we're just NUTS.

1555. Patrap
Fla,,the gift that keeps on giving here.

lets Play HardBLOG


Who knew Skeletor could be a Guvna?

Republicans Gather to Vent Their Disgust With Gov. Scott


LoL
Quoting SeALWx:
I would like to say thanks to Levi for for the interesting scientific and fact based discussions seen tonight. It reminds me a lot of the old blog atmosphere; people bringing information related to tropical weather in and asking questions of each other. Now this place seems overrun with people wanting their own personal soapbox to stand upon and spout opinions of varying degrees of coherency and scientific backing.
We used to be nuts about weather, now we're just NUTS.



Yep, Levi is one sharp young man.....one of the best if not the best on this blog! :)
Watches


Warnings
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Hanover - Dundalk - Southern Grey County issued

Tornado watch for
Barrie - Collingwood - Hillsdale

Orangeville - Grand Valley - Southern Dufferin County

Tornado watch for
Mount Forest - Arthur - Northern Wellington County continued

This is an alert to the potential development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes..Monitor weather conditions and listen for updated bulletins.

A pronounced warm front across the Central Great Lakes is a focus for intense thunderstorms tonight. A severe thunderstorm over Central Lake Huron has had reports of large hail and damaging winds. Conditions are favourable for isolated tornadoes with this storm late this evening just east of Lake Huron.
Quoting Patrap:
Fla,,the gift that keeps on giving here.

lets Play HardBLOG


Who knew Skeletor could be a Guvna?

Republicans Gather to Vent Their Disgust With Gov. Scott


LoL



He's about as popular as your boy in the white house!....ROFLMAO.......what a joke he is!
Quoting Patrap:
Fla,,the gift that keeps on giving here.

lets Play HardBLOG


Who knew Skeletor could be a Guvna?

Republicans Gather to Vent Their Disgust With Gov. Scott


LoL

Right. And weren't you the one moments ago to take the nonsense to the emails.

Phhhhht.

Your source is about as credible as you, son.
Bunch of idiots from both sides on here that never bother looking in the mirror. Can't make remarks without disparaging those with which they disagree. (and yes I just did the same) There is no longer a middle ground, only a DMZ.

No wonder so many of the good regulars have left.
1561. Patrap

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh..


Dont say a word,

Your welcome.



1562. SeALWx
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep, Levi is one sharp young man.....one of the best if not the best on this blog! :)


Oh I know that's the truth. I've been here since '05, but I no longer post under my original handle. (Not 'cause of the ban-hammer, I just got tired of getting my 'nole trolled. If you catch my drift...)
1563. Patrap

Quoting InconceivableF6:


Ty Daddy-o

I like to rattle the hanging chad masses once in a while to keep um interested




LoL
Sunday, April 10, 2011
The Rasmussen Reports
daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 21% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-nine percent (39%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -18 (see trends).
These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted before a deal was formally announced to avoid a partial shutdown of the federal government



ONE POPULAR President....
Quoting Patrap:

Quoting InconceivableF6:


Ty Daddy-o

I like to rattle the hanging chad masses once in a while to keep um interested




LoL




SORE LOSER!!!!......LOL


Anyone remember 97L?

The first red circle of the 2010 hurricane season.

Sometimes, noticable disturbances occur early in the year, like 97L. However, sometimes, it take many weeks for anything noticable to come.



See that, that is 93L. Like 97L, It didn't form.

The first named storm in 2010 was Alex, a sure beast for June.However, the first named storm in 2009 was Anna, which didn't form until mid August.

My point is, sometimes, you have to wait awhile before you can start to see the season unfold, and sometimes, you don't have to wait at all...

Now lets see what 2011 has in store for us.
Interesting fact. Marx and Engels wrote the Communist Manifesto the last time Neptune was in Pisces, which it entered last week and where it will remain for 14 years---except for a brief retrograde this August. (semi-astronomy related)

Storms on the Plains may cause some tornadoes later. I saw a cloudtop.. to the south. (credit CosmicEvents)

Lawdy, Pat.
We should have known that conversation was going south when Comanche typed "I love you but..." and she addressed him as "dear." LMAO

I second your plea.

Add: And raise you fifty cents.
1570. Patrap
I believe we have had Invests in May the last 3 outta 4 years.

1571. Patrap
Indeed BFOTR's,,

We all have our passion,,but a place for it is usually a good blog entry.

Which I dont see many of from the Doll String Crowd.

If any,,

ever
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
916 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MANITOWOC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 910 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHILTON...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
APPLETON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF MANITOWOC
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS CATO...TAUS...
MENCHALVILLE...GRIMMS...WHITELAW...KELLNERSVILLE.. .ROSECRANS...
MARIBEL...FRANCIS CREEK AND LARRABEE.
1573. SeALWx
astrology is not even semi-astronomy




You can the the Tornado above.
1575. SeALWx
The BS is getting WAY too deep in here and its too late to be putting on mud boots.


Later WUBAs,

PS-Here's to the good old days...*clink*
Quoting SeALWx:
The BS is getting WAY too deep in here and its too late to be putting on mud boots.


Later WUBAs,

PS-Here's to the good old days...*clink*


You got mail........sorry!
Tomorrow will be by far the warmest day of the year so far across the snow-covered upper Plains; temperatures of 60 (and higher) will be prevalent in the Dakotas, eastern Montana, and upper Minnesota.

IOW: the rivers will be rising...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we now have tornado watches for south central ontario just to my west


KOTG,
At that Severe Weather Workshop I went to in March, I chatted with a met from Ontario. She told me most storms up there are low-topped supercells. Maybe not tonight's, though.
:)
1579. Ossqss
Oh my, we have some sensitivity here tonight :)

Just to cut my doll strings, here are some first person, recently tested, apps for smart phones that some may be interested in.

TIKL - great touch to talk with lots of other goodies (nextelish)

Redlaser - bar code scanner that pulls various feeds for info/pricing

Phantom alert - see for yourself as I did in testing last week. It worked well during my 1200 mile commutes.(congress wants to ban it sooooooooo?)

Motospeak - for those who can use it. No touch texting responses. You can fool it to work without a blue tooth connection also, but I am not telling :)

Pinout - for you geeks

CNET TV, and also CNET news. Good techy stuff with a layman approach.

Edit- to be weather related

WUSA Radar, optimized for WiFi and 3G

At least I did not post puppet master, LOL





Magnitude
5.2
Date-Time
Monday, April 11, 2011 at 02:01:20 UTC
Monday, April 11, 2011 at 02:01:20 PM at epicente
Depth
538.8 km (334.8 miles)
Region
FIJI REGION
Distances
490 km (305 miles) W (281°) from Neiafu, Tonga
511 km (317 miles) NW (317°) from NUKU'ALOFA, Tonga
3066 km (1905 miles) W (265°) from PAPEETE, Tahiti, French Polynesi




If it isn't weather (or directly related) ...
Period.
Wisconsin.

Lots of other tornado watches, but Wisconsin is clearly busy today.
End to Japan nuke crisis is years, a fortune away
By CHARLES HUTZLER and MARI YAMAGUCHI, Associated Press Sat Apr 9, 10:24 am ET

TOKYO – Once Japan's leaky nuclear complex stops spewing radiation and its reactors cool down, making the site safe and removing the ruined equipment is going to be a messy ordeal that could take decades and cost hundreds of millions of dollars.

Radiation has covered the area around the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant and blanketed parts of the complex, making the job of "decommissioning" the plant — rendering it safe so it doesn't threaten public health and the environment — a bigger task than usual.

Toshiba Corp., which supplied four of Fukushima's six reactors, including two on which General Electric Co. collaborated, submitted a roadmap this past week to the plant's operator for decommissioning the crippled reactors. The study, done with three other companies, projects that it would take about 10 years to remove the fuel rods and the reactors and contain other radioactivity at the site, said Keisuke Omori of Toshiba.

That timeline is far faster than those for other nuclear accidents and contains a big caveat: The reactors must first be stabilized and cooled, goals that have eluded emergency teams struggling with cascading problems in the month since the devastating tsunami damaged their cooling systems. Omori said the extent of damage to the reactors and other problems still need to be assessed.

Link
Quoting atmoaggie:

Wisconsin.
Lots of other tornado watches, but Wisconsin is clearly busy today.



Reading some of the details...
Dang. Softball hail!
1585. eddy12
well neo i live in northerm minnesota tomorrow will not be the warmest day so far and as far as snow pack very little left in fact it is 95% gone the rivers in a lot of places have crested already many below forecast tomorrow forecast 52 with up to 25mph winds low 31

A good many of the regulars left because of the tone of this blog. I have my doubts concerning AGW, mainly the method by which, and from whom, the data was compiled and have said as much. So that makes me a "flat earther," or a right wing kook.

It was also on this blog, where a guest blogger of Dr. M suggested that Global Warming may have contributed to the collapse of the Minneapolis Bridge the day after the event in 2007 without any data to support such a claim. I believe her words were "global warming has not been ruled out as a contributing factor in the collapse."

If one were to hang a plum-bob from the masthead of this web page, it would come to rest well to the left of center. That is okay by me.

Wunderground is simply a liberal weather site that thinks it is center. I treat it as such.
Quoting eddy12:
well neo i live in northerm minnesota tomorrow will not be the warmest day so far and as far as snow pack very little left in fact it is 95% gone the rivers in a lot of places have crested already many below forecast tomorrow forecast 52 with up to 25mph winds low 31

I was referring, of course, to the entire multi-state region I mentioned, not just to one single location in Minnesota. According to several official sources, there exists a heavy snowpack across many areas in that northern tier that will see their warmest temps yet tomorrow and into Wednesday. But don't take my word for it. Here, have a look.

Remember, river flooding is kinda like GW: just because you don't see it outside your door at this very minute doesn't mean it's not happening.
Tornado Weather - 4/10/11 - Crandon, Wisconsin (Forest County)

Quoting Barefootontherocks:


KOTG,
At that Severe Weather Workshop I went to in March, I chatted with a met from Ontario. She told me most storms up there are low-topped supercells. Maybe not tonight's, though.
:)
true when i first came to ontario back in 83 it was a rare thing to get tornado watches or warnings since the start of 2000 onward they are becoming more common and stronger each time and look it april 10th and we are getting them already ontario's severe weather season normally don't start till after the 15th of may till 15 of sept
Anyone watching this storm West of Ft Worth, Tx? Showing a pretty nasty hook echo.
Link

TORNADO WARNING
TXC367-110330-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0002.110411T0247Z-110411T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
947 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 948 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANNETTA SOUTH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ANNETTA...ANNETTA NORTH...ANNETTA SOUTH AND HUDSON OAKS AROUND 1000
PM CDT...
WILLOW PARK AND ALEDO AROUND 1005 PM CDT...
SANCTUARY AROUND 1020 PM CDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 404 AND 423...
I-30 NEAR MILE MARKER 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 9755 3269 9754 3257 9754 3256 9775
3256 9785 3266 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 229DEG 35KT 3262 9778

$$
Quoting Baybuddy:

A good many of the regulars left because of the tone of this blog. I have my doubts concerning AGW, mainly the method by which, and from whom, the data was compiled and have said as much. So that makes me a "flat earther," or a right wing kook.

It was also on this blog, where a guest blogger of Dr. M suggested that Global Warming may have contributed to the collapse of the Minneapolis Bridge the day after the event in 2007 without any data to support such a claim. I believe her words were "global warming has not been ruled out as a contributing factor in the collapse."

If one were to hang a plum-bob from the masthead of this web page, it would come to rest well to the left of center. That is okay by me.

Wunderground is simply a liberal weather site that thinks it is center. I treat it as such.

I've been lurking for a long time, before deciding to sign up. That's pretty much the impression I get too. It is pro AGW, and those who aren't sure are ostracized and labled as right wing extremists, deniers, or contrarians and goofy words like that.

But at the same time, it's a great site, regardless of any sway. In fact, it's cool folks are allowed to openly discuss their views and opinion regarding Global Warming and all weather for that matter. Sure, it can get ugly sometimes, but what isn't ugly when it comes to certain subjects and theories that are still far from being agreed up by most or all of the site's bloggers.
1592. Ossqss
Quite the interesting item, if ya care.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

BTW, you might want to put this in your back pocket. The alerts, if you want them, can be customized.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Quoting Baybuddy:

A good many of the regulars left because of the tone of this blog. I have my doubts concerning AGW, mainly the method by which, and from whom, the data was compiled and have said as much. So that makes me a "flat earther," or a right wing kook.

It was also on this blog, where a guest blogger of Dr. M suggested that Global Warming may have contributed to the collapse of the Minneapolis Bridge the day after the event in 2007 without any data to support such a claim. I believe her words were "global warming has not been ruled out as a contributing factor in the collapse."

If one were to hang a plum-bob from the masthead of this web page, it would come to rest well to the left of center. That is okay by me.

Wunderground is simply a liberal weather site that thinks it is center. I treat it as such.

Do you have solid evidence to back your assertion that "a good many regulars left because of the tone" of the blog? I hear that thrown about here from time to time, but never with any backing. The reason I ask: I've been an internet user since the 80s, and in that time I've taken part in dozens and dozens of forums. It's my experience that there are as many reasons for people abandoning any particular one of them as there are people, period--and it very rarely has anything to do with a change of tone.
1594. eddy12
well neo tell me where to look your right don't know what's going on I just live here why don't you go to the nws site out of grand forks nd and look at their information or I could take word for it from florida lol
Quoting Patrap:
I believe we have had Invests in May the last 3 outta 4 years.

yep and we will get'em again this may and i would watch april could be a surprize invest as we get towards the end and east pacfic should start burping up some rains by then as well
Quoting eddy12:
well neo tell me where to look your right don't know what's going on I just live here why don't you go to the nws site out of grand forks nd and look at their information or I could take word for it from florida lol

I just checked myself and it's actually supposed to rather seasonal at best. And snowpack, are you kidding? Maybe in KOTG's neighborhood, but not up by you. At least that's what I'm seeing.
severe weather
Quoting eddy12:
well neo tell me where to look your right don't know what's going on I just live here why don't you go to the nws site out of grand forks nd and look at their information or I could take word for it from florida lol

You may be surprised to know that the internet is available in all 50 states, and Puerto Rico. ;-)
1600. eddy12
If your refering to the chinook winds that effects eastern montana and western north dakota not eastern north dakota or northern minnesota and it is for your information it is northern minnesota not upper minnesota that is michigan upper and lower michigan
1601. eddy12
well that does make sense your only as smart as your internet rofl
1602. Ossqss

Show me the MONEY! :)
Quoting Neapolitan:

You may be surprised to know that the internet is available in all 50 states, and Puerto Rico. ;-)
Quoting Baybuddy:

A good many of the regulars left because of the tone of this blog. I have my doubts concerning AGW, mainly the method by which, and from whom, the data was compiled and have said as much. So that makes me a "flat earther," or a right wing kook.

It was also on this blog, where a guest blogger of Dr. M suggested that Global Warming may have contributed to the collapse of the Minneapolis Bridge the day after the event in 2007 without any data to support such a claim. I believe her words were "global warming has not been ruled out as a contributing factor in the collapse."

If one were to hang a plum-bob from the masthead of this web page, it would come to rest well to the left of center. That is okay by me.

Wunderground is simply a liberal weather site that thinks it is center. I treat it as such.
why would you explain the reason why many bloggers left and then bring up the very topic that caused many bloggers to leave?

I really don't understand that logic.
1604. alfabob
I can't believe that it's 76F at 11pm right now, the average high for July is 82F.. Almost want it to be winter again.
Quoting alfabob:
Almost want it to be winter again.


:(
Quoting alfabob:
I can't believe that it's 76F at 11pm right now, the average high for July is 82F.. Almost want it to be winter again.



Mine shows 79deg right now at my house
Quoting sunlinepr:

Is Sunline that enormous boat outlet company in Puerto Rico?
Quoting Baybuddy:

A good many of the regulars left because of the tone of this blog. I have my doubts concerning AGW, mainly the method by which, and from whom, the data was compiled and have said as much. So that makes me a "flat earther," or a right wing kook.

It was also on this blog, where a guest blogger of Dr. M suggested that Global Warming may have contributed to the collapse of the Minneapolis Bridge the day after the event in 2007 without any data to support such a claim. I believe her words were "global warming has not been ruled out as a contributing factor in the collapse."

If one were to hang a plum-bob from the masthead of this web page, it would come to rest well to the left of center. That is okay by me.

Wunderground is simply a liberal weather site that thinks it is center. I treat it as such.

Dr masters supports Agw, so it would only be logical that the majority of the posters on here would reflect this sentiment.

In any case, would you rather this be a primarily gw denial blog? The earth is obviously warming, all evidence we have indicates it. I don't care if you don't believe scientists, you can find the evidence on your own, just make the trip to the arctic, or Antarctica for yourself. Conduct your own research. Come to realize what thousands of scientists have already realized.

What contribution humans have on this trend is not fully understood. Clearly we have some effect.




Honestly, anyone who can't come to grip with any of these ideas is in flat out denial. I have no idea why you would want a blog where the majority of posters are in denial.
More than half of North Dakota has at least 2" of snow cover, with up to 16" in some areas. Roughly one-third of Minnesota (all in the north) still has 2 or more inches of snow cover. Nearly 3/4 of Montana is still covered in snow. And, of course, the snow is much thicker in parts of southern Canada where many American rivers have their headwaters, and even these areas will be well into the 40s and 50s tomorrow. Again, have a look for yourself: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

Well, I'm out; I've had enough stunning logic and eloquent writing thrust upon me for one evening. Play nice...
Quoting InconceivableF6:

I just checked myself and it's actually supposed to rather seasonal at best. And snowpack, are you kidding? Maybe in KOTG's neighborhood, but not up by you. At least that's what I'm seeing.
no snow here been no snow for a couple of weeks now and its getting warm maybe a cool down after the 20th for a couple of days maybe see some flurries but snow naw thats done till next winter
1615. eddy12
keeper where are you from in ontario
Quoting InconceivableF6:

Is Sunline that enormous boat outlet company in Puerto Rico?


SunlinePR was a students project in high school, to synchronize the taking of sunset digital photos in diferent spots latitudes, (North to south) but at the same longitude (Western coast) and compare the results to see if the photos were alike.... They tried to explain what variable made the photos look diferent...
Quoting eddy12:
well that does make sense your only as smart as your internet rofl
i live in the eastern suburbs of toronto
Quoting SeALWx:



Trust us Nea. People have left, the tone is different, the science is watered down.
I also don't know if AGW is true or not, but I have seen much evidence that the keepers of the temp record are BIASED and that the paleoclimatology evidence has been rigged to fit a preconceived notion of the 'truth'. You are very full of yourself and your regurgitated ideas. You are quite a grating personality here at WU, not to mention quite a one-trick-pony in your discussion style, since we are spitting out opinions tonight.
im guessing sea ice levels are biased too. Ocean acidity too. Satellite measurements too. Glaciers, migration patterns, etc, they're all biased.

Go conduct the science yourself then. All scientific evidence points in one direction on the topic of global temperatures. and you have zero evidence that all his evidence is biased. None.

As for humans impact, the extent at which we effect the climate is debatable, but the question of if we effect it is not.
Quoting SeALWx:



Trust us Nea. People have left, the tone is different, the science is watered down.




Wow, have people left this blog.....hum... is not totally accurate. Many have left but, many just don't comment anymore that was large contributors of this blog. There are just a few on here that are total Smart Asses that love to just challenge a fight it seems. Most know those i talk of. You can read above and back some to figure one out...........JUST SAYN the truth.
1620. eddy12
the wunderground map on snow cover is the most factual one i have seen your map link show snow where i am but i can a sure you there is no snow here nor has there been for about a week
Quoting TomTaylor:
im guessing sea ice levels are biased too. Ocean acidity too. Satellite measurements too. Glaciers, migration patterns, etc, they're all biased.

Go conduct the science yourself then. All scientific evidence points in one direction on the topic of global temperatures. and you have zero evidence that all his evidence is biased. None.

As for humans impact, the extent at which we effect the climate is debatable, but the question of if we effect it is not.


YOU MIGHT WANNA check on your account of the melting of the Antarctic melting.........most sources say its growing. Just another example of ........well you know!
1622. eddy12
do you watch the leafs
1623. Ossqss
Quoting SeALWx:



Trust us Nea. People have left, the tone is different, the science is watered down.
I also don't know if AGW is true or not, but I have seen much evidence that the keepers of the temp record are BIASED and that the paleoclimatology evidence has been rigged to fit a preconceived notion of the 'truth'. You are very full of yourself and your regurgitated ideas. You are quite a grating personality here at WU, not to mention quite a one-trick-pony in your discussion style, since we are spitting out opinions tonight.


Remember the Hockey Shtick?

The Yamal implosion

Science needs to be sound..... period!

Just sayin, the words don't disappear, nor does the inflection of such words......

Be glad we have that of which helps us clear the vision sometimes..........

The pre-Climategate issue that is the issue

out>>>

Yamal

Think about it ~~~~

1624. SeALWx
Quoting TomTaylor:
im guessing sea ice levels are biased too. Ocean acidity too. Satellite measurements too. Glaciers, migration patterns, etc, they're all biased.

Go conduct the science yourself then. All scientific evidence points in one direction on the topic of global temperatures. and you have zero evidence that all his evidence is biased. None.

As for humans impact, the extent at which we effect the climate is debatable, but the question of if we effect it is not.

Nice straw man you built there. I didn't make a stance on AGW, but brought up the temp record and paleoclimatology issues. Neither of which you decided to mention or talk about. Try again...or not, its your choice.
Well, I have to tell ya....I'm totally "worn out" from chasing(online) with the StormChasers today....but I enjoyed every mile....who knows, I may just start a "geriatric chase team "...anyone want to join me?
Quoting eddy12:
do you watch the leafs
only when they play golf
1627. eddy12
sorry to hear that had a question for you
1628. flsky
Pontification gets tiring....
Quoting Neapolitan:

Do you have solid evidence to back your assertion that "a good many regulars left because of the tone" of the blog? I hear that thrown about here from time to time, but never with any backing. The reason I ask: I've been an internet user since the 80s, and in that time I've taken part in dozens and dozens of forums. It's my experience that there are as many reasons for people abandoning any particular one of them as there are people, period--and it very rarely has anything to do with a change of tone.
1629. Levi32
Cool that the eastern Pacific is already spitting out tropical low pressure systems.

Quoting Levi32:
Cool that the eastern Pacific is already spitting out tropical low pressure systems.


That low over Hawaii, has been bringing rain to the area for the last 3 days...

Quoting Levi32:
Cool that the eastern Pacific is already spitting out tropical low pressure systems.



Levi...the term "spitting out" is really befitting here..lol....BTW, it's good to see ya on the blog and hope to learn even more from you this season :)
Quoting SeALWx:

Nice straw man you built there. I didn't make a stance on AGW, but brought up the temp record and paleoclimatology issues. Neither of which you decided to mention or talk about. Try again...or not, its your choice.
paleoclimatic issues are paleoclimatic issues.

I'm trying to make the point that currently we are warming. You paleoclimatic problems have nothing to do with that, and do nothing to prove we aren't warming.
Quoting TampaSpin:


YOU MIGHT WANNA check on your account of the melting of the Antarctic melting.........most sources say its growing. Just another example of ........well you know!

Calm yourself Tampa, believe me, I've checked. The antarctic hasn't shown much in the way of decreasing sea ice levels, nor in the way of increasing sea ice levels.

Here's a graph regarding antarctic sea ice level anomalies


Notice, not all climate related graphs show warming or vicious hockey stick patterns you are all afraid of.

Another thing to note, presently, antarctic sea ice levels are below average and have been going down for the last year, so don't get so excited.
1633. Levi32
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Levi...the term "spitting out" is really befitting here..lol....BTW, it's good to see ya on the blog and hope to learn even more from you this season :)


Thanks :) I'm always happy to be here.
.
1635. DDR
Very informative blog Levi,thanks again
Looks like some rain for us here in the windward islands :D
BTW can you post the precip forecasts for the Atlantic basin TIA.
1637. Levi32
Quoting DDR:
Very informative blog Levi,thanks again
Looks like some rain for us here in the windward islands :D
BTW can you post the precip forecasts for the Atlantic basin TIA.


Sure.

ECMWF:



Japanese:



CFSv2 (a little drier, which is interesting):

Quoting TampaSpin:
Antarctic ice is at a record high and growing at the ‘steepest slope ever’


Antarctic sea ice is largely irrelevant insofar as impacts to global climate are concerned.
.
why are my arrows not on the right storms?....some vortexs here.........
Quoting geepy86:

Link not working for me.



sorry fixed it
1643. SeALWx
1632.

Hmmm...Removing evidence of the MWP and leading people to believe that the earth is warming so much that it has never been as hot as it will be isn't important to the AGW situation? Manipulating data sets to skew plots of temp trends isn't unacceptable behavior to the GW team huh? Looks to me like southern ice gains more in the winter than gets lost in the summer. Look at all those data points above zero!

1644. alfabob
Quoting TomTaylor:
I've checked. The antarctic hasn't shown much in the way of decreasing sea ice levels, nor in the way of increasing sea ice levels.


Go to google, and find the volume or mass of the antarctic ice sheet. Now find the mass of the arctic ice sheet. There is your answer.
Situation Update No. 1
On 11.04.2011 at 03:24 GMT+2

Wildfires scorched more than 230,000 acres in Texas on Sunday, roaring through a West Texas town, destroying an estimated 80 homes and buildings and critically injuring a firefighter. The Texas Forest Service reported more than 60,000 acres burned and 40 homes lost in one blaze that raced through West Texas and into the small mountain town of Fort Davis. The fire rushed across 20 miles in 90 minutes. Officials at the scene, however, estimated at least 100,000 acres in two counties had burned from the fire, which continued to grow Sunday evening. "I can only describe it as an ocean of black, with a few islands of yellow," State Representative Pete Gallego said. Flames "licked at the edges" of the town but did not burn their way through its center, sparing more buildings than expected, he said. But 17 to 20 homes were destroyed, and as many as 30 more buildings were burned, he said after visiting the town, including a more than 100-year-old historic wooden ranch home. Residents had worked overnight to save their homes and moved on to help their neighbors, he said. Hot spots still burned along the highway, and a glow from miles away was visible at night, he said.

"Even now, the flames in some places are 15 to 20 feet high," Gallego said. The town was without power Sunday evening. Gallego said many of the residents may not have been insured for fire. Presidio County Emergency Management Coordinator Gary Mitschke said it was the first fire to scare him in 13 years of fighting grass fires. The blaze crossed railroad tracks and state highways as it roared past Fort Davis, he said. Without a change in winds, which were keeping aircraft from helping firefighting efforts, the fire could burn for days or weeks, he said. "Frankly, it moved almost as quick as a truck," Mitschke said. "When you hear the word firestorm, this is what I imagine." A federal emergency management spokesman said a fire grant for the county had been approved Saturday and that the agency stood by to support as needed. Wildfires fed by dry, windy conditions have charred more than 270,000 acres in eight days across Texas, burning homes, killing livestock and drawing in crews and equipment from 25 states. Plants that thrived in wet weather turned to tinder under a cold, dry winter. Weeks of high winds and little moisture have made every spark dangerous. A Texas firefighter was in critical condition with severe burns Sunday afternoon after fighting an estimated 60,000-acre fire in the northern Panhandle.

The cause of the fire was under investigation, but it started in an isolated area near a natural gas plant and a few other industrial sites in an empty town called Masterson, said David Garrett, an emergency management spokesman for Moore County. "Kind of like a wide spot in the road that has a name," Garrett said. "The fire started in open country and stayed in open country." Two nearby communities were considered threatened but were not evacuated late Sunday afternoon, according to the forest service. A Midland County wildfire burned 40 homes and at least 15,000 acres, according to the service. Crews had stopped from crossing a highway a sprawling 71,000-acre fire that killed almost 170 head of cattle in Stonewall County, spokesman Lee McNeely said. Air tankers had dropped 60,000 gallons of retardant to help slow the blaze. Firefighters had most of the day to prepare for a cold front with gusting winds, McNeely said. High winds and dry conditions were expected to persist into the evening across West Texas, the National Weather Service warned. In Oklahoma, where Governor Mary Fallin has extended a 30-day state of emergency she declared on March 11, firefighters and helicopters on Sunday mopped up the smoldering remains of two fires that erupted Saturday. One wildfire in Cleveland in north central Oklahoma charred more than 1,500 acres and forced 350 people to evacuate while another struck near Granite in southwest Oklahoma, said Michelann Ooten, a spokeswoman for the state Office of Emergency Management.


Spain is burning too.
1646. SeALWx
Quoting KoritheMan:


Antarctic sea ice is largely irrelevant insofar as impacts to global climate are concerned.


Don't like the data...just throw it out.

Looks like Briffa and Mann and Schmidt have taught you all well!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Antarctic ice is at a record high and growing at the %u2018steepest slope ever
Yea try and find an updated link.

Unlike your link, my link is up to date and shows that in the last year sea ice has been dropping. Yet your link stops the graph at mid 2010, ironically that's right when my graph begins to plummet.

Coincidence?..
Quoting SeALWx:


Don't like the data...just throw it out.

Looks like Briffa and Mann and Schmidt have taught you all well!


Does not fit the agenda.....or if the glove does not fit you must acquit.
Quoting SeALWx:


Don't like the data...just throw it out.

Looks like Briffa and Mann and Schmidt have taught you all well!
the antarctic isn't showing significant loss or addition.

It's in no bodies favor.
.
1651. SeALWx
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yea try and find an updated link.

Unlike your link, my link is up to date and shows that in the last year sea ice has been dropping. Yet your link stops the graph at mid 2010, ironically that's right when my graph begins to plummet.

Coincidence?..


You don't really wanna hear the weather isn't climate talk right now do ya? You guys like saving that one for blizzards and cold snaps, right?
1652. DDR
Thanks
I'm expecting above average rainfall for this month,almost at the average already,it should be double or even triple the monthly average by April 30th.
1653. xcool
tampa you goting mall sir thanks :)
1654. SeALWx
Quoting TomTaylor:
the antarctic isn't showing significant loss or addition.

It's in no bodies favor.
I'm sure you guys can get somebody to jockey that data around for ya though. At least by the time IPCC meets again.
Quoting SeALWx:


You don't really wanna hear the weather isn't climate talk right now do ya? You guys like saving that one for blizzards and cold snaps, right?
Tampa brought it up with the record extent of antarctic sea ice levels post. I countered.

If you want to look at the climatic avg, t doesn't show any significant trends, unlike Tampa claimed.
Quoting SeALWx:


Don't like the data...just throw it out.

Looks like Briffa and Mann and Schmidt have taught you all well!


Any climatologist worth their salt understands what I said. It's the arctic sea ice extent we're concerned about, which has been steadily declining over recent decades.
Quoting SeALWx:
I'm sure you guys can get somebody to jockey that data around for ya though. At least by the time IPCC meets again.
Thas nice, make your predictions all you want, the point stands that the antarctic sea ice shows no significant trends.
1658. SeALWx
Quoting TomTaylor:
Tampa brought it up with the record extent of antarctic sea ice levels post. I countered.

If you want to look at the climatic avg, t doesn't show any significant trends, unlike Tampa claimed.
nope. Wrong again. You brought up ice in your straw man argument against paleoclimatology 'irregularities'.
1659. DDR

1660. SeALWx
Quoting KoritheMan:


Any climatologist worth their salt understands what I said. It's the arctic sea ice extent we're concerned about, which has been steadily declining over recent decades.
It's the lying by climatologists that I'm concerned about, which has been steadily increasing over recent decades.
1661. Levi32
Quoting DDR:



Interesting how it differs from the new CFS.
TEXAS

1663. alfabob
I'll upload the one for 2010 some point tomorrow. Some data was missing but most of the year is there.

2005 Atlantic 500mb Vorticity
Quoting SeALWx:
It's the lying by climatologists that I'm concerned about, which has been steadily increasing over recent decades.


I don't even know what to say.
Quoting SeALWx:
nope. Wrong again. You brought up ice in your straw man argument against paleoclimatology 'irregularities'.
I said if you don't trust the scientists, you can look for yourself in the arctic or antarctic. I was wrong that the antarctic showed warming. But Tampa was equally wrong that t showed cooling.



In any case, the globe is still warming humans are still contributing. Let me know when ya'll find something of interest to suggest other wise.
HEADS UP ST LOUIS


1668. SeALWx
“The legitimate questions that have been raised about the processes used to generate climate change science and policy have thus far been cast aside. The reluctance to engage in conversations with people who have doubts or question the veracity of climate science is at the heart of the wrong doing that undermines trust in climate change science.”

“The committee should understand that the IPCC presents one version of climate change science generated by an establishment that has evolved to largely reflect a particular point of view…this point of view attempts to dismiss information that questions the belief that greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of observed climate change.”

Link
TEXAS

Quoting SeALWx:
Right Wing Hocus Pocus

I'm not going to bother reading through the many hours worth of text, but just looking at some of the graphs, I couldn't help but laugh:










comical at best. It's obvious he took graph charts and then added his own temp scales to the left side because of the different font and color. GEE, I WONDER WHY.

Not only that, but it doesn't even make sense. If you look at the graph and find the 0c anomaly line, its well above all the data. so where did he come up with the average? CLEARLY it was not determined using the data on the graph, or else the lines would reflect that. For all we know, he could of just created that line out of thin air.

How ironic is it that this man is trying to prove scientists are messing with the data, when clearly he is doing exactly that.




I also always find it ironic that people believe in what one website on the internet tells them over what all the scientists say.

Once again, let me know when you deniers can show me the earth is cooling. or how humans have zero effect.
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS

1673. xcool





Quoting SeALWx:
Okay if you just gonna take random graphs out of context, whatever...I'll just go ad hom and say that you're an idiot. My opinion carries just as much weight as your context-less arguments of validity.

Just like was testified in front of the house sub-commitee: smoke screens, misinformation, out-of-context arguments, and a general thought process of "I know I'm right and I'll make data to prove it." While giving no respect to even read others concerns about your data handling.

GDIAF

And I'll simply flag your comment for the ad hom.

I'm just trying to point out that this website is clearly altering data. I could honestly care less about your paleoclimate issues, it does nothing to disprove we are presently warming. nothing at all. night
TORNADO WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 1225 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011
TORNADO WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1225 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011
1677. SeALWx
Go ahead admin. Delete all these posts and drop the ban hammer. I know I'm in the lions den here, but AGW is fraud science at this point. It might be happening, fair enough. But the science is WRONGLY conducted and untruthfully portrayed.
Powerful winds and some pretty heavy rain came through North Crowley, TX (SW Tarrant Count)about 30 minutes ago; some residual thunderstorm activity but looks like most of the action is just south about 10 miles in the area between Crowley and Alvarado along I-35 with it moving into Ellis County. We got some hail, not a lot, probably pea-sized at best. Winds though, were pretty powerful.
TEPCO revises tsunami height to 15 meters.

Japan Times
Quoting SeALWx:


Nothing at all huh? Looks like somebody needs to call mommy cause the bad man on the internet is being mean.

Go ahead...flag this one too. Oh and it is swweeet to hear the GW crowd cry altered data. Oh the IRONY.


Oh great.. the zingers are back.

Seriously, go back through the blog and compare the zinger posts with the posts by people that are respected and that quote facts (on either side), the worse the argument and the less intelligent the poster, the greater the use of zingers.

I always hear George Costanza's voice after these. "It's a zinger, Jerry. He got with me with the zinger. I was right there, and then he brought out the zinger!"

Jerry: "I do think you're right. You have been zung, George."

George: "Yep, got me with the zinger. What can you do?"
1681. Ylee
All tornado warnings have now expired, and there are just a couple of severe Tstorm warnings left in Texas....
1682. Xandra
Japan, magnitude 7.1

Quoting Xandra:
Japan, magnitude 7.1

The good news: it was just updated to a 6.6.

The bad news: the quake was actually centered inland roughly midway between Sendai and Tokyo, and located at a fairly shallow 6.2 miles.

According to Kyodo, external power is "no longer available" at the Fukushima plant, so water injection has ceased. Uh-oh...
1684. Xandra
Quoting Neapolitan:

The good news: it was just updated to a 6.6.

The bad news: the quake was actually centered inland roughly midway between Sendai and Tokyo, and located at a fairly shallow 13.1km.

According to Kyodo, external power is "no longer available" at the Fukushima plant, so water injection has ceased. Uh-oh...

The good, the bad and the ugly! ;)
Quoting Xandra:

The good, the bad and the ugly! ;)

Indeed. TEPCO says 220,000 are without power from today's one-month anniversary aftershock. The Japanese Weather Agency--which includes that country's version of the USGS--revised the quake to 7.0 from 7.1 (as opposed to the USGS, which, as I said a bit ago, revised it from 7.1 to 7.0).
Japan to expand evacuation areas near crippled nuclear plant

The government will expand evacuation districts near the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, its top spokesman said Monday.

With the crisis at the plant dragging on, some municipalities within a 20- to 30-kilometer radius of the power plant will now be designated as additional evacuation areas, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said at a news conference.

The government had earlier ordered residents within the 20-km radius of the power station to evacuate and those in the 20-30 km zone to stay indoors after the plant was hit by a deadly earthquake and tsunami on March 11.

The municipalities which will be part of the new evacuation zone include Katsurao, Namie and Iitate, all located in Fukushima Prefecture. Residents in these municipalities will be expected to move to different areas within one month, Edano said.

Kyodo Article...

Reading between the lines: while the news media have largely packed up and moved on, the situation remains dire. The reactors are more stable than they were a few weeks ago--a very good thing--but workers are still stuck doing nothing more than pouring water on the rods in an attempt to keep them from melting down, the equivalent of holding their fingers in a massive dam to stop a flood. In a recent article, there were admissions that the situation may take months or even years to stabilize enough that cleanup and mitigation efforts can get underway. My favorite quote from that article:

''We are fighting against a monster named nuclear power with human wisdom.'' (Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda.)
1687. aquak9
a decent jolt, near US or to the west? northern hemisphere?

USGS hasn't got it that I could find...short-lived, maybe a 5-6 mag?

someone with better eyes, take a look...
1688. aquak9
oh well if I had READ BACK ~~

not bad for one just trying to read seismos, tho. It was one hard short-lived jolt, wobbly to begin with then CRACK, then it was all over.

Good morning dayshift.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't even know what to say.
ignore the ignorant
That quake cluster to the west of Iwaki is a bit disconcerting.
1691. Xandra
Quoting Neapolitan:
My favorite quote from that article:

''We are fighting against a monster named nuclear power with human wisdom.'' (Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda.)

A very good quote!
1692. IKE
24 hour QPF...


1693. aquak9
you know I'm gonna complain about that QPF, Ike...didn't need to see that on a monday.
1694. IKE
Day 2 QPF

This one make you happy?:) Seventeen-hundredths of an inch forecasted...for a boat east of JAX!!!!!!!! LOL!


1695. surfmom
Morning - checking in - great quote Neo~
"We are fighting against a monster named nuclear power with human wisdom." (Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda.)

coulda /shoulda used more wisdom then greed b/4 this all happen. Wisdom ain't sham-wow when it comes to cleaning up a mess that will exist beyond our lifetimes.

GOOOD MORNING AQUA!!
1696. aquak9
0.17, Ike.

Zero point flippin' one seven.

Oh yeah, I'm dancing in circles here.
1697. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
0.17, Ike.

Zero point flippin' one seven.

Oh yeah, I'm dancing in circles here.
LOL!

I'm sorry:(
The Japan 1 month anniversary shocks are disturbing for sure.

There have been 10 so far in less than 3 hours including the first at 6.6.
A total of 9 of these new shocks are almost on top of each other!

It would seem that this new bunch of shocks over the last few days are forming a short line from the coast above the nuclear plant down to the Tokyo bay area, as there has been quite a lot of activity here. this may be a bad sign for the near future and with the Tokyo bay area maybe getting hit soon as well.
The big volcano near Tokyo also might fire up a bit as a consequence of all this activity.

So starting off with a 7.1 that was 4 days ago,there have been in excess of 30 shocks over 4.5 and this is a month after the main one at 9, so things don't seem to be quietening down yet.
Lets see what the experts have to say?
1699. aquak9
hi surfmom! great to see you!!!

(ignores ike)
Quoting surfmom:
Morning - checking in - great quote Neo~
"We are fighting against a monster named nuclear power with human wisdom." (Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda.)

coulda /shoulda used more wisdom then greed b/4 this all happen. Wisdom ain't sham-wow when it comes to cleaning up a mess that will exist beyond our lifetimes.

GOOOD MORNING AQUA!!
maybe you mean scam-now

hello surfy good to see ya
good morning to all you bloggers out there
1702. aquak9
Hi Keeper! Is your sunrise as bright as it is here?
1703. IKE
  • Oil 1.36
  • Price/barrel $111.66
1704. aquak9
Quoting IKE:

  • Oil 1.36

  • Price/barrel $111.66


Well that's better; we closed friday over $113.

-ooops, I'm supposta be ignoring you-
1705. IKE
There's hope for you aquak!!!!

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Breezy, with a west wind between 8
and 16 mph.

and.....

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.
Quoting aquak9:
Hi Keeper! Is your sunrise as bright as it is here?
overcast looks like rain warm 68 or 19c going to 22c or 74f
maybe some thunder later but i think most will stay to the south and east of me
hey ike downcasting season is almost upon us


hehehehehe
Quoting:-1686. Neapolitan

According to an exclusion zone of 30 Kilometer radius, this takes out of the land are of Japan a total of 2827 square kilometers and not only that most of this is very good agricultural land in a country that doesn't have a surplus of it!!

Next and soon, we will see what happens if the clouds of doom and gloom start to gather as the ''company'' now have a very good excuse to say they cant work on the 'problem,' due to new damage and therefore they cant be blamed any longer for what might transpire.
If I was in the board room I my might be saying how do we make a silk purse out of a sows ear with this new development and come up smelling of roses to say we were cheated within sight of a certain victory.

Doomcasters!!
1709. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey ike downcasting season is almost upon us


hehehehehe
Half the blog may have me on ignore by the end of the season.

................................................. .................................................

Extended forecast for the panhandle of Florida.....

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
A LARGE CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS
OCCLUDING SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE GFS
OFFERING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. THIS MEANS A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AND BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY...LIKELY MEANING THAT THE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER (AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE). DESPITE BEING A THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BOTH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.



1710. Gearsts
Mornin', all!

Just curious, did admin pull out the ban stick this weekend and start beating people with it? I got a WU-mail from someone whom was banned, and it piqued my curiosity.
Quoting IKE:

Half the blog may have me on ignore by the end of the season.

................................................. .................................................

Extended forecast for the panhandle of Florida.....

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
A LARGE CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS
OCCLUDING SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE GFS
OFFERING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. THIS MEANS A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AND BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY...LIKELY MEANING THAT THE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER (AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE). DESPITE BEING A THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BOTH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.



a couple of cool downs possible this weekend and next one as well on 19 and 20 april
The recent magnitude6.6earthquake struck
42miles(~67.6kilometres) at 227.1degrees(SW) from FukushimaDaiichi
100miles(~161kilometres) at 23degrees(NNE) from centralTokyo

followed within 42minutes by a magnitude5.2 then a magnitude5.0
(as represented by the two unconnected dots)
And now yet another, a magnitude5.6 (near where the 6.6 struck)
45miles(~72.4kilometres) from FukushimaDaiichi
97miles(~156kilometres) from central Tokyo
1715. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a couple of cool downs possible this weekend and next one as well on 19 and 20 april
It was in the 90's here on Saturday.

Yeah the 6-10 day forecast is for below normal temps here and then it warms back to above normal by the last week of April. Summer weather for good is getting close.
Quoting IKE:

Half the blog may have me on ignore by the end of the season.

................................................. .................................................

Extended forecast for the panhandle of Florida.....

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
A LARGE CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS
OCCLUDING SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE GFS
OFFERING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. THIS MEANS A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AND BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY...LIKELY MEANING THAT THE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER (AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE). DESPITE BEING A THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BOTH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.






Lordy.....and me the other......LOL
Quoting IKE:

It was in the 90's here on Saturday.

Yeah the 6-10 day forecast is for below normal temps here and then it warms back to above normal by the last week of April. Summer weather for good is getting close.



Not many more days of cool weather for us IKE
1719. beell
Not quite over yet. Especially if we get a surface low in western TN-or at least an inflection point (a bend or kink) in the convective line to back the low level surface winds.

Plenty of cool air in conjunction with the mid level trough coupled with the entrance region of a 60-70 knot jet and strong surface heating to make quick work of the cap.

A snippet of the latest outlook
(full outlook via link below)




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

...PORTIONS OF TN/OH AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES
SHOWN ON 12Z BMX/JAN/BNA RAOBS. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF
UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ERODE CAP AND LEAD TO SEVERE
STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
.

LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER
KY/TN BY MID AFTERNOON
...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3KM SRH VALUES
EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2...BUT ALSO SHOW A CONTINUED MID LEVEL INVERSION
WHICH MAY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE NOT
UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY IF CONCERNS REGARDING THERMODYNAMICS ARE LESSENED
.
REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND CONSIDERABLE WIND
DAMAGE REMAINS FROM NORTHEAST MS INTO MUCH OF MIDDLE TN/AL AND
SOUTHERN KY
. STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING...
13Z SPC DAY 1 Convective Outlook
By Associated Press, Monday, April 11, 8:59 AM

SENDAI, Japan 2014 A strong new earthquake 7.1 rattled Japan%u2019s northeast Monday as the government urged more people living near a tsunami-crippled nuclear plant to leave, citing concerns about long-term health risks from radiation.



If anyone has a magic wand that gets rid of a dry cap, please feel free to wave it towards the Houston area.

We have a frontal line coming through, but a very dry cap in place at about 850mb. Its not a warm cap (like usual), just a layer where the RH drops from 80% to 40% and under. If you could get rid of that cap, it would be great, we desperately need the rain.

How is everyone this morning?
Type: Earthquake
14 minutes ago
Magnitude: 7.1
DateTime: Monday April 11 2011, 08:16:16 UTC
Region: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
Depth: 10 km
Hrm, USGS hasn't posted anything on their map yet.
Quoting fireflymom:
Type: Earthquake
14 minutes ago
Magnitude: 7.1
DateTime: Monday April 11 2011, 08:16:16 UTC
Region: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
Depth: 10 km



That is UTC time........that happened several hours ago, 4 hours ago.
1726. eddy12
Fireflymom I think you read the time wrong
Quoting fireflymom:
Type: Earthquake
14 minutes ago
Magnitude: 7.1
DateTime: Monday April 11 2011, 08:16:16 UTC
Region: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
Depth: 10 km

USGS has downgraded that quake to a 6.6
It is a Monday appreciate the corrections.
1723 fireflymom
"Type: Earthquake
14 minutes ago
Magnitude: 7.1
DateTime: Monday April 11 2011, 08:16:16 UTC
Region: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
Depth: 10 km
"

The latest USGS greater-than-magnitude5 list shows a 5.6 at 11:42:36 UTC
and rates the 8:16:16 earthquake as a magnitude6.6
1730. Jax82
It was 89 degrees in Jax beach yesterday, beating the old record by 7 degrees back in 1999. I cant complain though, I enjoyed it!
NEW BLOG
1734. hydrus
Quoting TampaSpin:



That is UTC time........that happened several hours ago, 4 hours ago.
These earthquakes are amazing..The energy being released is astounding to me...And we here in middle Tennessee are about to be nailed yet again with bad weather. Winds are gusting to over 30 already..img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/rgb-l. jp