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Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Earl's waves
Earl's waves

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. tkeith
Quoting palmasdelrio:


Why do you say that? I don't know how to read maps, etc. but the blob that was Gaston sure looks pretty ominous. I thought that from the looks of it, it was a td by now.
Gaston has had sort of an identity crisis since he came on the scene...

I dont think he knows what he wants to be when he grows up...yet:)
Quoting rarepearldesign:
Well Earl is just off the coast of Southeast tip of Nova Scotia. I knew it was going to come east and ride more central into NS. Came even more east than I thought. Anyways, I am 25kms outside Halifax and we are expected to get the brunt of the NE quadrant...winds are picking up!!

Thanks! Please keep us posted!
1003. IKE
Quoting palmasdelrio:


Why do you say that? I don't know how to read maps, etc. but the blob that was Gaston sure looks pretty ominous. I thought that from the looks of it, it was a td by now.


The convection is dying off. Maybe it will come back...if so, the NHC should upgrade it.
Quoting Neapolitan:
So far in 2010, we've accumulated the following:

Named storms: 7
Hurricanes: 3
Major hurricanes: 2
ACE: 62

Over the years 1950-2009, the averages are:

Named storms: 10.4
Hurricanes: 6.2
Major hurricanes: 2.7
ACE: 101

Meaning, obviously, the season will be considered average from a climatological point of view with just the following:

Further named storms: 3.4
Further hurricanes: 3.2
Further major hurricanes: .7
Further ACE: 39

In just the past 13 days, we've seen the following:

Named storms: 4
Hurricanes: 2
Major hurricanes: 2
ACE: 52

Meaning that with the peak of the season a week away, much activity in the tropics, and multiple indicators pointing to increased activity to come, we should meet the criteria for an average season in two to three weeks...leaving the remainder of September, a likely hyperactive October, and a still-active November to add to the totals.

A "busted" season, huh? ;-)


I wouldn't use the 1950-2009 average. It is going to be on the low side of things, so it's hardly proving any point. Only El Nino seasons have come close to that climatology, let alone way below it. Even the seasons that would have the climate similar to this with La Nina/AMO+ before '95 - roughly 50-65 - had some of the storms not counted due to limited technology.

The average from 95-09 has been 14-8-4. I have little doubt that this season will meet/surpass that, considering we're about halfway already with September and October to go, at least.
Quoting tkeith:
Gaston has had sort of an identity crisis since he came on the scene...

I dont think he knows what he wants to be when he grows up...yet:)


That's a great way to put it. I'll be on the lookout. Since I'm in PR, I don't want him to surprise me if he decides to head my way.
1006. pottery
Good Morning....
A Glorious dawn here. Gaston is looking for moisture and is dragging it up from around here. It's the only moisture available, what with dry air to his west and north.
Gaston also looks to be bumping to the north-west, and in spite of the forecasts I think he will end up just north of the Leewards.

Have to go and perform a Major Task with a lawnmower.
Will be back if I survive....
Any additional opinion on post 954. Is this a real shield?
1008. aquak9
AIM- if I could work at PetCo, I'd be there! unfort my financial situation demands a sixty-hour week right now. But OH, that's be a fun job. I say, go love on the fur-kids.

Re-up as a Disaster Reservist, too. It's not always the weather, y'know. I'm always RedCross Ready, but I'm not sitting around waiting on them to call me.

Still love the curls, the smile- good to see who you really are.
1009. IKE
Latest IR....on Gaston....floater loop of him...Link

1010. aquak9
cotillion- good post

Pottery- "lawnmower comin'"
Quoting Cotillion:


I wouldn't use the 1950-2009 average. It is going to be on the low side of things, so it's hardly proving any point. Only El Nino seasons have come close to that climatology, let alone way below it. Even the seasons that would have the climate similar to this with La Nina/AMO+ before '95 - roughly 50-65 - had some of the storms not counted due to limited technology.

The average from 95-09 has been 14-8-4. I have little doubt that this season will meet/surpass that, considering we're about halfway already with September and October to go, at least.


Exactly. It may not turn out to be anything as severe as 2005...but something like 2004 or 2008 is still likely, possibly even more active if this burst of activity in the tropics continues until' the end of the season.
1013. tkeith
Quoting palmasdelrio:


That's a great way to put it. I'll be on the lookout. Since I'm in PR, I don't want him to surprise me if he decides to head my way.
I would definatly keep an eye out. PR seem to be where the last few have tried to go, and were redirected. I hope yalls luck holds out for those that follow.
Quoting Chicklit:
Glad to see New England spared. Hope you all enjoy the long weekend.

Gaston is chugging along this a.m.
IR Loop

May run out of dry real estate only to find a big blob of SAL shielding the Caribbean.



morning wxlogic



Any other related comments in relation to the shield?
Dry air, too much of it for any period of more then slow strengthening in the next 3 days.
1016. IKE
Speed it up and look around 16N and 46W...Link
Quoting aquak9:
AIM- if I could work at PetCo, I'd be there! unfort my financial situation demands a sixty-hour week right now. But OH, that's be a fun job. I say, go love on the fur-kids.

Re-up as a Disaster Reservist, too. It's not always the weather, y'know. I'm always RedCross Ready, but I'm not sitting around waiting on them to call me.

Still love the curls, the smile- good to see who you really are.

Yeah, I figured it was time to come out from behind the fur-kids since I finally figured out how to change avatars (kind of). How 'bout YOU dear lady, lol?
What you say makes a ton of sense. I think I'd get lots of brownie points taking Red Cross (human) and Animals in Disaster classes. Thanks.
Southern portion of 99L is becoming the dominant low pressure center. You can see spin on satellite imagery.
Quoting Eugeniopr:



Any other related comments in relation to the shield?

Yeah, somebody said that the SAL was to move SW (ie out of the way)...
Gaston is tiny
IKE, the LLC is there. Becoming somewhat exposed.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Gaston is tiny

like an itty bitty baby...
AL, 09, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 163N, 456W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GASTON, S,

AL, 07, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 430N, 657W, 60, 965, TS, 50, NEQ, 100, 120, 100, 80, 1003, 220, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, D,

No change.
1024. tkeith
Quoting CaribBoy:
Gaston is tiny
The Carribean has big supply of TC steroids...It will be good if he dont get that far.
1025. tkeith
Quoting Cotillion:
AL, 09, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 163N, 456W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GASTON, S,

AL, 07, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 430N, 657W, 60, 965, TS, 50, NEQ, 100, 120, 100, 80, 1003, 220, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, D,

No change.
NHC upgrade to TD on Gaston?
1026. IKE
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
IKE, the LLC is there. Becoming somewhat exposed.


That's what I see too.

That water vapor frame Chicklit posted..a lot of dry air around it.

The somewhat hated models have backed off on much development with Gaston(CMC, ECMWF, GFS and NOGAPS).

Maybe he'll come back...flip a coin.
Quoting Chicklit:

Yeah, somebody said that the SAL was to move SW (ie out of the way)...


Thank you, to good to be true jajajajaj
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Dry air, too much of it for any period of more then slow strengthening in the next 3 days.


Correct
Quoting tkeith:
NHC upgrade to TD on Gaston?


Not yet, the TD would replace the LO in that case. Model output also still states Disturbance as opposed to Tropical Cyclone (which is given to a system with at least TD classification).
1024:

He's actually over a good supply of TC steroids, lol.

The biggest problem isn't even the dry air, it's the 15kts of tail wind he has sheering him in the upper levels.


Fred's problem last year was westerly sheer.

Gaston's problem right now is easterly sheer. This is why the CoC is almost completely exposed on the east side of the convection.
Quoting Cotillion:


I wouldn't use the 1950-2009 average. It is going to be on the low side of things, so it's hardly proving any point. Only El Nino seasons have come close to that climatology, let alone way below it. Even the seasons that would have the climate similar to this with La Nina/AMO before '95 - roughly 50-65 - had some of the storms not counted due to limited technology.

The average from 95-09 has been 14-8-4. I have little doubt that this season will meet/surpass that, considering we're about halfway already with September and October to go, at least.


Well, perhaps you wouldn't; I would. In the grand scheme of things, long-term averages are vastly more useful than short-term averages. For instance, the average ACE for the years 2004/2005 was 236.5...which would make for a very lopsided comparison, wouldn't you agree? In statistics, the larger the sample, the more accurate the results.

Having said that, my point was that those calling "bust" as recently as two weeks ago were wrong. Laughably, ludicrously wrong...
1032. tkeith
Quoting Cotillion:


Not yet, the TD would replace the LO in that case. Model output also still states Disturbance as opposed to Tropical Cyclone (which is given to a system with at least TD classification).
got it...ty
Quoting Chicklit:

like an itty bitty baby...


haha I was thinking the same like a fetus just a few weeks old..lol
Here is NS, it's just starting to ramp up

Nova Scotia power states "Current total as of 9:42 AM, Sep.04, 2010 - 22755 customers are without power"


shear shield up
1036. Relix
Gaston is having slight troubles at the moment. All the other systems struggled here. Let's see what Gaston does.
1037. tkeith
Quoting rarepearldesign:
Here is NS, it's just starting to ramp up

Nova Scotia power states "Current total as of 9:42 AM, Sep.04, 2010 - 22755 customers are without power"
What wind speeds you gettin there now?
1038. aquak9
AIM- that really is me in the avatar

The Special Needs shelters, that RedCross sets up, are usually also the animal shelters. I know they are, in our area. They bring in more generators for folks who have special medical needs, and they are bigger for folks with animals in carriers. I prefer working the special needs shelters. But that's just me.

Animals in disasters, yeah a good field of study. But ya gotta have more love and patience than a regular disaster worker...I think you already qualify. :)
Quoting tkeith:
What wind speeds you gettin there now?


In Halifax it's supposed to be worst at 11-12, and we are the true NE quadrant. I have no tools to measure wind speed so I have to go by the weather stations.

They are saying 55km/hr gusting to 84km/hr
1040. breald
Quoting aquak9:
AIM- that really is me in the avatar

The Special Needs shelters, that RedCross sets up, are usually also the animal shelters. I know they are, in our area. They bring in more generators for folks who have special medical needs, and they are bigger for folks with animals in carriers. I prefer working the special needs shelters. But that's just me.

Animals in disasters, yeah a good field of study. But ya gotta have more love and patience than a regular disaster worker...I think you already qualify. :)


If I am not mistaken after Katrina the Federal Government passed a law stating that hurricane prone areas has to have at least one shelter for people with animals. You have to register them with the county prior to taking them to the shelter and they must be up to date on shots and crated.
Is it just me, or is Gaston moving much faster than he was yesterday?

Depending on exact center fix, I estimate he is moving around 20mph average over the last 8 hours.
1042. tkeith
Quoting RecordSeason:
Is it just me, or is Gaston moving much faster than he was yesterday?

Depending on exact center fix, I estimate he is moving around 20mph average over the last 8 hours.
He's got a good tail wind...
Gaston seems a lot further north than when he started unless he moves due west I don't think he,ll enter the Caribbean
Can someone tell me if the forward motion of the storm is factored into the wind speed in forecasts?

From Environment Canada:
Earl is moving towards the north-northeastward at 25 knots... 46 Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120 Km/h and central pressure at 965 MB.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is still calling Earl a hurricane, interestingly enough. Apparently they sent out a plane this AM into the eyewall and found winds at hurricane strength (they were explaining this on The Weather Network - Canada's equivalent of TWC), so the CHC is differing from the NHC on this.
Both Danielle and Earl became exposed in the same general area lol. The next day they became canes.
I'm sorry right now its to wet outside for the dam camera to work to get good enough photos, i will have to wait until the eyewall feature or whatever that is passes halifax.sorry u guys, the waves are actually quite large along the harbour were either close to high tide or on the downward trend for the tide.
1048. aquak9
good morning bre♥, and I think you are right. I can't speak for state or nat'l laws.

yes, animals gotta have proof of shot record. I do not know about larger animals. Of course a shelter is a last resort. We do not encourage folks to use a shelter. But, we are here if needed.
1049. scott39
Goodmorning, I asked about the Sal when it was N of the Islands yesterday, and was told it should move W or SW. Now I read that there is Easterly shear. Im going with the Euro keeping Low(Gaston} weak and going W for possible developement in the Western Carribean.
NHC track on Gaston


AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 0 154N 440W 30
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 12 158N 459W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 24 159N 480W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 36 161N 506W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 48 160N 533W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 72 155N 585W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 96 160N 625W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 120 173N 662W 25
1043:

Steering ahead of Gaston should cause a slight southerly jog of 0.5 to 1.0 degrees over the next 24 to 36 hours. This should put him back in the vicinity of 15.3N to maybe 15.8N.

If Gaston doesn't slow down some, he is going to be somewhere between 53W and 55W by this time tomorrow, because he is really clipping along compared to yesterday.
1052. raggpr
On the visible sat if you zoom it closer you can see that Gaston is developing new convection near 47w 17N and 46w 16w. Maybe on the new frames to come we will see new convection growing there. He is far from over.
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, I asked about the Sal when it was N of the Islands yesterday, and was told it should move W or SW. Now I read that there is Easterly shear. Im going with the Euro keeping Low(Gaston} weak and going W for possible developement in the Western Carribean.

there is a lot of "energy" in the W Carib, If Gaston makes it there, I would be very worried about R.I
Quoting stribe37:
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is still calling Earl a hurricane, interestingly enough. Apparently they sent out a plane this AM into the eyewall and found winds at hurricane strength (they were explaining this on The Weather Network - Canada's equivalent of TWC), so the CHC is differing from the NHC on this.


Link

Excerpt:

As for the subject of Miami forecasting 60 knots and Halifax
forecasting 65 knots for the storm, we maintain the slightly
Stronger winds based on the abnormally hot and humid airmass over
The Maritimes which will allow Earl to hold onto its tropical
character. As well, water temperatures over which the highest
Winds of the storm will travel are running 2 to 4 degrees
Above normal. The buffering effect of the usually cooler
Waters will be less with this storm. Thus, gusty winds,
Possibly hurricane force, could overspread Nova Scotia with
The wind flow off the water from the south.
Good morning

Gaston has become a shrinking violet this morning and is diminishing in both size and convection at a rather rapid rate. It seems that a combination of dry air, a fast forward motion and perhaps a little Easterly shear is taking a toll on his structure. All of this coming during the heat of the day as well.

The NHC will likely lower his chances of becoming a tropical cyclone at the next update and TD status today now seems unlikely as well.

Still, this area of the Atlantic has been known for being inhospitable this year and as I said yesterday I do not expect Gaston to redevelop until he reaches the zone between 50 and 55 W.

Another watch and wait day today.
1059. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:
Gaston better hurry and find his name-tag, or else we'll be left with no names on the map ... and we all know what next week is, right?
A chart comes to mind.
Some sort of stationary frontal boundary in the Bay of Campeche is showing signs of persistent convection and will need to be monitored for development as it moves slowly northward over time. Right now there is a real lack of any organized 850mb vorticity and this likely do to the fact that the TD 10E in the Pacific ocean is falling apart as this vorticity axis is lied across Mexico. Once this low moves more northward with time development will become more probable. Wind shear is a light 5-10 knots with a developing upper level anticyclone over the region, so environmental conditions are favorable for intensification. Will continue to monitor the systems progress as the NHC has highlighted this system with a 20% percent chance. This seems reasonable.
Thanks Storm! What a treat...get up, get coffee and there's your analysis. Have a
great weekend..
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM EARL AND FRIENDS SYNOPSIS SEP. 04, 2010 ISSUED 9:05 A.M.

tropical Storm Earl and friends...lol Thanks for the update Storm....and the warning on recurvatures! Have a great weekend!
1063. scott39
Thanks, StormW
1058:

At the present insane speed of 20 to 22mph, Gaston should reach 50W sometime around 0315UTC.
1065. tkeith
Still, this area of the Atlantic has been known for being inhospitable this year and as I said yesterday I do not expect Gaston to redevelop until he reaches the zone between 50 and 55 W.

If he stays together moving at present speed...he's gonna get there pretty quick.
1066. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC track on Gaston


AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 0 154N 440W 30
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 12 158N 459W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 24 159N 480W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 36 161N 506W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 48 160N 533W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 72 155N 585W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 96 160N 625W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 120 173N 662W 25


Are those the NHC wind forecasts next to the long/lat?
Quoting RecordSeason:
1058:

At the present insane speed of 20 to 22mph, Gaston should reach 50W sometime around 0315UTC.


Gaston essentially has until 63W to organize. If not, history shows that he is unlikely to do so until after 75W. He is being driven by strong trades right now and I haven't had time to look at the forecast wind speeds during the next 24 hours.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Some sort of stationary frontal boundary in the Bay of Campeche is showing signs of persistent convection and will need to be monitored for development as it moves slowly northward over time. Right now there is a real lack of any organized 850mb vorticity and this likely do to the fact that the TD 10E in the Pacific ocean is falling apart as this vorticity axis is lied across Mexico. Once this low moves more northward with time development will become more probable. Wind shear is a light 5-10 knots with a developing upper level anticyclone over the region, so environmental conditions are favorable for intensification. Will continue to monitor the systems progress as the NHC has highlighted this system with a 20% percent chance. This seems reasonable.


Could be getting some unexpected home brew.
I'm out and GO NOLES!
Quoting IKE:


Are those the NHC wind forecasts next to the long/lat?


Apparently they don't believe he will come to much by the time he enters the Caribbean.
1066:

I don't like that first center fix anyway. It's a terrible fix, IMO.

On RGB the center fix as of 1215UTC looks like:

~16.3N and 46W.
I will check back later. Not much to look at for the time being.
Quoting ElConando:
I'm out and GO NOLES!


FSU!FSU!FSU!FSU!
On this very saturday 6 years ago, folks in FL were bracing for hurricane frances which was just offshore
1075. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


Apparently they don't believe he will come to much by the time he enters the Caribbean.


I thought that was the winds but wanted to be sure.

What you posted above may be true...."Gaston essentially has until 63W to organize. If not, history shows that he is unlikely to do so until after 75W."
Severe weather in Victoria and South Australia.
986hPa Low off Victoria.
Southern NSW is on weather alert.
1077. IKE


6 years ago on this very day, hurricane frances was just offshore the florida coast, near w palm beach. It would make landfall the following morning.
1075:

Yes, that's the "John Hope rule," and it has almost never failed.
1080. scott39
I hope Gaston isnt one of those who stays weak, and then trecks across the Atlantic and blows up in the Carribean or GOM. Fredric did that back in 1979 and came over the Western tip of Cuba as a depression. He then blew up to a Cat 4 in the GOM and landed as a strong Cat 3 in southern Al on September 13th. This is just an observation of a past Hurricane and not to be taken as a track for Gaston. Hopefully he will go away peacefully.
Quoting IKE:


I thought that was the winds but wanted to be sure.

What you posted above may be true...."Gaston essentially has until 63W to organize. If not, history shows that he is unlikely to do so until after 75W."


Take a look at this buoy. Gaston is due N of it right now and the wind has swung right around to the West. All he needs is persistent deep convection to get reclassified.

whats keeping Gaston from his name?
1083. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


Take a look at this buoy. Gaston is due N of it right now and the wind has swung right around to the West. All he needs is persistent deep convection to get reclassified.



I agree.

Blog is in snooze mode today.
1084. will40
snooze mode last night it was down for about 4 hrs
1086. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


I agree.

Blog is in snooze mode today.


...zzzzzzzzzzzz

Earl made landfall.
I guess it is the lack of action in the tropics (for today) and its a holiday weekend. Go out and have some fun and get some sun!! lol
1090. scott39
Ike do you think the Gulf Coast will possibly be threatened by a "home brew" or CV TC this season?
1091. tkeith
My page is whacked on all the posts after Tropicfreak's embedded video. It's normal above it.

Must be my ancient I.E. issues again...
Gaston still has a well defined LLC and though sheared, from E , the center is not as far exposed as even Danielle or Earl at some point.Gaston imo has high chance to become a TD/TS again and probably a major hurricane once it enter the Caribbean, jmo.
Quoting AussieStorm:

there is a lot of "energy" in the W Carib, If Gaston makes it there, I would be very worried about R.I

Rhode Island?
Wow, Earl actually looks better than he did yesterday. I hope those people are prepared and stay safe.
1095. h0db
Hurricane Katrina formed as Tropical Depression Twelve over the southeastern Bahamas on August 23, 2005 as the result of an interaction of a tropical wave and the remains of Tropical Depression Ten. It didn't look like much more than convection over a former TD.
Quoting KanKunKid:

Rhode Island?
Rapid intensification. LOL Rhode Island :P
Good morning all :) Was nice to wake up to sunshine this morning instead of 80 mph wind gusts, even though the storm was exciting :)

Hope NS fairs as well as NC did... best wishes to friends up there...

x-Gaston is so cute this a.m. :)
Is there such a thing as a "Tropical Hangover"?
at 1079 my page went wacky also..
what happened to make a change at post 1079>?
Quoting seflagamma:
at 1079 my page went wacky also..
what happened to make a change at post 1079>?
Could be IE, IE is not my primary browser for 5 years.
oh forgot my manners, did not realize I had not posted yet; was just reading.

Good morning everyone, happy Saturday to you..

I finally get "caught up" on what's going on out there...

Happy Saturday to you all..

I am at work until 7pm, of course, so will be popping in and out as I can.. Saturday is usually very slow day...
It's the Youtube link.


if you link to youtube, it screws up this board for some reason.

The only way to fix the glitch for now is for 1078 to remove the youtube link.
1105. scott39
Quoting KanKunKid:

Rhode Island?
Yea, Its invisible in the Western Carribean and causes Rapid Intensifacation.
99L may or may not develop, but the GFS continues to show a very active wave train, with another vigorous one emerging in around 72 hours or so.
So Gaston may be a Gomex storm? Or is everything trending up the east coast?
Wow 12z LGEM for Gaston brings him up to 130 knots!
1110. djboca
Do I remember someone blogging the phrase "Batten down the hatches"? Are you serious? And I'm not talking about how this storm changed strength and didn't produce much damage (wind, water or otherwise). Just the phrase and its alarmist warning... how unprofessional and childish.

Stick to facts, just the facts and only the facts. There are plenty of local weather "professionals" out there who's only concern is alarming you enough to get you to watch the 10pm news. We're already coming to your blog. You don't need to stoop that low.
Quoting vince1966:
So Gaston may be a Gomex storm? Or is everything trending up the east coast?


Caribbean storm by the looks of it.

Gaston isn't looking so good right now, I suspected this would happen. It is very likely Gaston will have very little convection by the days end with the NHC still holding at 70% followed by a blowup tonight.
Quoting extreme236:
99L may or may not develop, but the GFS continues to show a very active wave train, with another vigorous one emerging in around 72 hours or so.

This mighty be Igor
Quoting djboca:
Do I remember someone blogging the phrase "Batten down the hatches"? Are you serious? And I'm not talking about how this storm changed strength and didn't produce much damage (wind, water or otherwise). Just the phrase and its alarmist warning... how unprofessional and childish.

Stick to facts, just the facts and only the facts. There are plenty of local weather "professionals" out there who's only concern is alarming you enough to get you to watch the 10pm news. We're already coming to your blog. You don't need to stoop that low.


Okay..?
Quoting scott39:
Yea, Its invisible in the Western Carribean and causes Rapid Intensifacation.


Aye Chihuahua! The secret acronyms on the blog are KILLING me!

Blog hanging again?
1109:

At what coordinates?


yesdterday the same model had him at 115kts (Low Cat4) near 15N and 63W.

So I'm guessing that 130kts peak would be 12 hours west of the analog 15N 63W fix on the new model run.

130kts is very high cat4 = ~150mph
1117. hydrus
Quoting extreme236:
Wow 12z LGEM for Gaston brings him up to 130 knots!
Another major hurricane.. This season has been busy and it is only early September.
Quoting djboca:
Do I remember someone blogging the phrase "Batten down the hatches"? Are you serious? And I'm not talking about how this storm changed strength and didn't produce much damage (wind, water or otherwise). Just the phrase and its alarmist warning... how unprofessional and childish.

Stick to facts, just the facts and only the facts. There are plenty of local weather "professionals" out there who's only concern is alarming you enough to get you to watch the 10pm news. We're already coming to your blog. You don't need to stoop that low.


You might wanna ease off on the coffee or switch to decaf...
1119. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Caribbean storm by the looks of it.

Gaston isn't looking so good right now, I suspected this would happen. It is very likely Gaston will have very little convection by the days end with the NHC still holding at 70% followed by a blowup tonight.
Gaston will eventually move out of the dry air surrounding it. The TUTT will move west out of Ex-Gaston,s way. It is a prediction on my part, but once Gaston,s in the Caribbean or east of 65 degree,s, we will have another surge of activity even surpassing our most recent one.
1120. scott39
Quoting KanKunKid:


Aye Chihuahua! The secret acronyms on the blog are KILLING me!

Blog hanging again?
My girlfriend had a Chihuahua. Hmmm I wonder what ever happened to him? So peaceful now! Ahhhh
Good morning all
what happened to the blog last night?
Quoting hydrus:
Gaston will eventually move out of the dry air surrounding it. The TUTT will move west out of Ex-Gaston,s way. It is a prediction on my part, but once Gaston,s in the Caribbean or east of 65 degree,s, we will have another surge of activity even surpassing our most recent one.


The models agree.. Gaston is not dead

1123. tkeith
1110

Cheerios taste funny this mornin?

This blog is primarily amateurs and enthusiests (and poor spellers)...
Well i am very thankful that Earl lost much of its power a couple days ago but we probably will lose our power in halifax soon about a hour from now the eye or whatever is left over will pass to the sw of the city and our peak wind gusts will be around 120 possibly 130 kms per hour, already 22,700 customers without power we have over 300,000 people in our city here, so thank u all for your great help with the storm and thx Dr. masters stormw, thank u jesus for sparing us from a stronger storm.
Is it my imagination or is the blog on go-slow?
can florida get hit by this gaston? you all are gonna say its to early but i just want to know the chances. I am going away in around 10 days
Quoting IKE:


Are those the NHC wind forecasts next to the long/lat?


Technically yes, but don't believe them. When they do an "unofficial" OFCL they typically only do a track forecast, mainly for input to SHIPS.
1128. scott39
Quoting weatherman12345:
can florida get hit by this gaston? you all are gonna say its to early but i just want to know the chances. I am going away in around 10 days
Too early to tell.
Quoting extreme236:
Wow 12z LGEM for Gaston brings him up to 130 knots!


But why is Gaston so pathetic right now?
Quoting kimoskee:
Good morning all
what happened to the blog last night?


It stalled on me. I thought I was the only one.
Quoting CaribBoy:


But why is Gaston so pathetic right now?

dry air and southwesterly shear. should be in a better environment in a couple of days
1132. scott39
Quoting CaribBoy:


But why is Gaston so pathetic right now?
Dry air,Easterly Shear.
Can someone ask an Admin to delete post 1078?

No offense to Tropicfreak, but that's the post that is causing the problems due to the youtube issue.
Quoting KanKunKid:

Rhode Island?


Quoting scott39:
Yea, Its invisible in the Western Carribean and causes Rapid Intensifacation.


Okay, sorry, but that's kinda funny...when posed in the form of a question:

What's invisible in the Western Caribbean and causes Rapid Intensification?

Rhode Island...

Man, the rest of us had no idea
Quoting weatherman12345:

dry air and southwesterly shear. should be in a better environment in a couple of days


It appears that is what will happen.

Intensity models really go off on this one.
Which models did best for intensity forecast for Earl and Danielle this far out?
Quoting DarIvy959810:

This mighty be Igor
Yep!
Dry air and moderate shear is the inhibiting factor for Ex Gaston. Agree with the models bringing him to a ts in about 3 days. Another tid bit. Models show him going right through the dreaded Herbet box!! FL may be affected by this one folks.
1139. scott39
Quoting Floodman:
Quoting KanKunKid:

Rhode Island?




Okay, sorry, but that's kinda funny...when posed in the form iof a question:

What's invisible in the Western Caribbean and casues Rapid Intesification?

Rhode Island...

Man, the rest of us had no idea
We learn something new everyday. LOL
55000 without power in NS now. Winds are getting really strong 120km/hr gusts.
1141. tkeith
Quoting aislinnpaps:


It stalled on me. I thought I was the only one.
Yeah me too. My wife put one of those car breathylizers on my computer...I thought I was just "over the limit"

:)
Quoting weathers4me:
Dry air and moderate shear is the inhibiting factor for Ex Gaston. Agree with the models bringing him to a ts in about 3 days. Another tid bit. Models show him going right through the dreaded Herbet box!! FL may be affected by this one folks.


Hebert Box...pronounced "ay-bear"
Quoting scott39:
We learn something new everyday. LOL


LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It appears that is what will happen.

Intensity models really go off on this one.

long range still is abit tricky. looks to be moving in to the northern leewards and after that maybe through the greater antillies. i just want to know if it will afect florida i have vacation plans in 10 days.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It appears that is what will happen.

Intensity models really go off on this one.
And with above average sst,and high TCHP...we could be dealing with another intense system in a few days.And by the looks of it he's about to enter the moist envierment.
Quoting weathers4me:
Dry air and moderate shear is the inhibiting factor for Ex Gaston. Agree with the models bringing him to a ts in about 3 days. Another tid bit. Models show him going right through the dreaded Herbet box!! FL may be affected by this one folks.


The geography of the Hebert Boxes is the key to their use as predictors. The boxes are located such that hurricanes have plenty of space to intensify after passing through them, and the prevailing winds tend to push them towards Florida. Conversely, if they pass outside the box they are either too close to land to intensify much, or are far enough away from land that they are more subject to the influences of steering winds and other atmospheric conditions. These tend to either push the hurricane more westward across the Caribbean Sea towards the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, or into the Gulf of Mexico where they threaten Mexico and the Gulf Coast states, or eastwards causing them to curve outwards over the Atlantic and miss landfall altogether.[1]

While these boxes provide an indication that a hurricane may threaten South Florida, a hurricane does not have to pass through one to strike there, as were the case with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Andrew, though the latter did skirt the edges of the eastern box. Additionally, a hurricane which does pass through a Hebert Box can very easily miss Florida, or indeed any landfall entirely.[3] Hebert himself acknowledged that the boxes are not a guarantee of hurricane landfall either way, but cautions that if a hurricane passes through one, "really, really pay attention. We worry plenty in August and September when one goes through that box, and we have a certain comfort level when one misses the box."[1]
1147. tkeith
Quoting scott39:
We learn something new everyday. LOL
word...
1148. scott39
Quoting Floodman:


Hebert Box...pronounced "ay-bear"
I like that. Hopefully it helps with the folks that keep calling it "Herbert".
Quoting washingtonian115:
And with above average sst,and high TCHP...we could be dealing with another intense system in a few days.And by the looks of it he's about to enter the moist envierment.
not quite yet, still has some dry air to deal with for a day or two
1150. 7544
looks like most models take gaston to the carb then over pr then he gets alittle north will the bermuda high be buliding in around the time he reaches there and make w or wnw at that point tia
Quoting tkeith:
word...


I am obviously to old... WTF does that mean??
Quoting weatherman12345:
not quite yet, still has some dry air to deal with for a day or two


Getting severely sheered and becoming exposed. This could be his second death.
1153. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


Hebert Box...pronounced "ay-bear"
Nah, nah,...HHHEEEEE....BIRT..He sounds like the word me, and bert rhymes with flirt...Whats this A-BEAR stuff?......lol...jk...really...jk..Good morning..
Quoting tkeith:
Yeah me too. My wife put one of those car breathylizers on my computer...I thought I was just "over the limit"

:)


ROFL
1155. tkeith
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am obviously to old... WTF does that mean??
Had a long learning session on that yesterday Orca...best I can tell def. is... "right on brotha"
Quoting hydrus:
Gaston will eventually move out of the dry air surrounding it. The TUTT will move west out of Ex-Gaston,s way. It is a prediction on my part, but once Gaston,s in the Caribbean or east of 65 degree,s, we will have another surge of activity even surpassing our most recent one.


I think your right. Could be rather threatening for the US mainland by the week of the 13th possibly later this week depending on the development and track of "Gaston" and of course much earlier for the central and northern islands. Good the blog is slow and folks are relaxing this weekend. Could possibly be a surprise in the BOC ahead of the other action.
1157. scott39
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am obviously to old... WTF does that mean??
I concur!
Quoting weathers4me:
Dry air and moderate shear is the inhibiting factor for Ex Gaston. Agree with the models bringing him to a ts in about 3 days. Another tid bit. Models show him going right through the dreaded Herbet box!! FL may be affected by this one folks.


I believe Earl went through the Herbet box and look where he went.
Quoting scott39:
My girlfriend had a Chihuahua. Hmmm I wonder what ever happened to him? So peaceful now! Ahhhh


Yeah, my ex had one just before she got rid of me. It wasn't real barky, but it required constant attention, in the morning, it would wake you up by licking in your ear. Hmmmm. Maybe that's why she dumped me and kept the dog?
The other Chihuahua is a State in Mexico where Americans are advised (by the US State department) not to travel through by vehicle or animal because of the excessive violence between those that legally have guns (cops and army) and those that illegally have guns (The locals call them "Narcos". Funny, that's what we used to call undercover narcotics cops..) The Narcos will pretend to be cops and then rob you, steal your car or shoot you or all of the above. (actually REAL cops, corrupt ones will rob you, but they won't shoot you, they just feel the need to supplement their income and of course, they have guns and you don't.) Trying to bring a gun into Mexico is taboo, like trying to bring one on an airplane in the USA. I was arrested and heavily fined (robbed) for having 2 pocket knives in my truck. Machetes are OK though. Pfffft!
Everything here is 3rd world but they are trying to catch up. Just like Canada, everything here is MORE expensive except the food and the Rum and Tequila (which explains a lot! You don't want to drink and drive or get caught with alcohol on your breath. The breathalyzer is the cops nose and if he smells alcohol, even just a little you are going down, your car is forfeit and you will be in jail for a long time). There are no laws that say when you will be tried or even heard. It's when they feel like it apparently.
The good news is: You can have Chinese food, pizza and a six pack of beer delivered to your house! All that for less than 20 bucks! It's not quite a "silver lining" but it's a thread, and you have to enjoy the little things here, because that's all there is.
That's my report from Mexico. Don't be careful and don't be safe!
Quoting Floodman:


LOL
That was funny!.
1161. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Ike do you think the Gulf Coast will possibly be threatened by a "home brew" or CV TC this season?


I'd bet on home brew.
Quoting weathers4me:
Dry air and moderate shear is the inhibiting factor for Ex Gaston. Agree with the models bringing him to a ts in about 3 days. Another tid bit. Models show him going right through the dreaded Herbet box!! FL may be affected by this one folks.


There is no such thing.......no certain box or anything like that.. Storms go certain directions due to ridges and troughs and other things in the atmosphere to push/pull them in a direction.
1163. hydrus
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am obviously to old... WTF does that mean??
LOL!!!I have seen that before, I am not really sure what it means either.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I believe Earl went through the Herbet box and look where he went.

that was a whole different senario.
1165. 7544
earl went in the box and did not effect fla he went in as a major too so idk about that box didnt play right that time
Quoting Floodman:

Man, the rest of us had no idea


Flood...

Did you see the entry which preceded the four hour BLOGHOLE last night:

Comment # 495
=================
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010


THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME
APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A
1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN
THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.
THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS...
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM
MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.

CRS
anyone see the gfs still develops a system in the boc at 66 hrs shows it at 1001 mb
Quoting 7544:
earl went in the box and did not effect fla he went in as a major too so idk about that box didnt play right that time
it wasnt a major in the box though. there was a trof that was pulling him north anyway. with gaston a high is supposed to build once he reaches the box
1169. hydrus
Quoting IKE:


I'd bet on home brew.
I brew my own too, and its a holiday weekend..Hallelujuh.
1170. IKE
Gaston....

Quoting weatherman12345:
not quite yet, still has some dry air to deal with for a day or two
I'm actually surprised dry air hasn't killed off the system yet because of how small it is.But it looks like Gaston trying hard out there.We shall see.
Quoting scott39:
I concur!


It has to have something to do with that other word the kids seem to like... Bump?

We should have a rule... has to have at least a verb and a noun to be posted.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm actually surprised dry air hasn't killed off the system yet because of how small it is.But it looks like Gaston trying hard out there.We shall see.


Gaston is like a cowboy surrounded by 1000 Indians, or the other way `round.
Quoting weatherman12345:

that was a whole different senario.


So you are saying that if the scenario is right then the storm would threaten FL. In other words, the Herbert box is meaningless.
wow it does have making landfall at 84 hrs so we need to watch this area
Looks like if ex-Gaston can ever re-develop it may be a significant threat.



Quoting Orcasystems:


I am obviously to old... WTF does that mean??


Definitely out of your generation! lmao
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am obviously to old... WTF does that mean??


**smacks forehead with palm**

Not this again!
Halifax weather now

22 degrees

* Feels Like: 32
* Wind: SE 74km/h
* Wind gusts: 104km/h
* Sunrise: 6:38
* Sunset: 19:47

* Relative Humidity: 100%
* Pressure: 98.31 kPa
* Visibility: 1.2 km
* Ceiling: 500 ft
1180. tkeith
Quoting Floodman:


**smacks forehead with palm**

Not this again!
sorry Flood...

:)
1181. will40
Quoting Orcasystems:


It has to have something to do with that other word the kids seem to like... Bump?

We should have a rule... has to have at least a verb and a noun to be posted.


word
What happened to Gaston?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-ft.html
Quoting Orcasystems:


It has to have something to do with that other word the kids seem to like... Bump?

We should have a rule... has to have at least a verb and a noun to be posted.


Really?

LOL...you asked for it
Quoting Orcasystems:


It has to have something to do with that other word the kids seem to like... Bump?

We should have a rule... has to have at least a verb and a noun to be posted.
All right old timer the word Word meaning that's what up,or totally.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am obviously to old... WTF does that mean??



**smacks forehead with palm**

Not this again!


Ask your 10 year old grandson (but not with grandma in the room:).
Quoting kimoskee:
What happened to Gaston?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-ft.html


The dry air is affecting him... like it does with most CATL systems
Its a riddle - not related to bump at all.
Quoting Orcasystems:


It has to have something to do with that other word the kids seem to like... Bump?

We should have a rule... has to have at least a verb and a noun to be posted.


recently saw a report on TV where the some federal gov agencies are recruiting ebonics translators to decifer wiretaps.
Quoting Floodman:


**smacks forehead with palm**

Not this again!


Flood~~Morning whoa I could've had a V8.
sheri
Quoting Floodman:


**smacks forehead with palm**

Not this again!


I found it :)

WORD

A versatile declaration, originating (more or less) in hip-hop culture.

"Word" has no single meaning, but is used to convey a casual sense of affirmation, acknowledgement, agreement, or to indicate that something has impressed you favorably.

Its usage among young blacks has been parodied ad nauseam among clueless suburban whites.

"Come on, man, we're going to the store."
"Word."
1193. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010


THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON IS CENTERED NEAR 15N43W ABOUT 1030 NM
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 9 KT. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS JUST UNDER THE SE PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT WITH DRIER
AIR UNDERCUTTING THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 45W-47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
EXTENDING FROM 20N20W TO 10N26W WITH A 1008 MB LOW JUST TO THE E
NEAR 16N20W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY E OF A LINE FROM 25N18W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 10N30W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 17N20W TO 14N23W WITH CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N E
OF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE COAST OF MAURITANIA W AFRICA AND WITHIN
180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-14N.

Quoting RecordSeason:
Can someone ask an Admin to delete post 1078?

No offense to Tropicfreak, but that's the post that is causing the problems due to the youtube issue.


No thats ok. Sorry, will delete, just wanted to point out that frances was offshore 6 years ago on this very day.
From the Urban dictionary:

A versatile declaration, originating (more or less) in hip-hop culture.

"Word" has no single meaning, but is used to convey a casual sense of affirmation, acknowledgement, agreement, or to indicate that something has impressed you favorably.
1196. scott39
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yeah, my ex had one just before she got rid of me. It wasn't real barky, but it required constant attention, in the morning, it would wake you up by licking in your ear. Hmmmm. Maybe that's why she dumped me and kept the dog?
The other Chihuahua is a State in Mexico where Americans are advised (by the US State department) not to travel through by vehicle or animal because of the excessive violence between those that legally have guns (cops and army) and those that illegally have guns (The locals call them "Narcos". Funny, that's what we used to call undercover narcotics cops..) The Narcos will pretend to be cops and then rob you, steal your car or shoot you or all of the above. (actually REAL cops, corrupt ones will rob you, but they won't shoot you, they just feel the need to supplement their income and of course, they have guns and you don't.) Trying to bring a gun into Mexico is taboo, like trying to bring one on an airplane in the USA. I was arrested and heavily fined (robbed) for having 2 pocket knives in my truck. Machetes are OK though. Pfffft!
Everything here is 3rd world but they are trying to catch up. Just like Canada, everything here is MORE expensive except the food and the Rum and Tequila (which explains a lot! You don't want to drink and drive or get caught with alcohol on your breath. The breathalyzer is the cops nose and if he smells alcohol, even just a little you are going down, your car is forfeit and you will be in jail for a long time). There are no laws that say when you will be tried or even heard. It's when they feel like it apparently.
The good news is: You can have Chinese food, pizza and a six pack of beer delivered to your house! All that for less than 20 bucks! It's not quite a "silver lining" but it's a thread, and you have to enjoy the little things here, because that's all there is.
That's my report from Mexico. Don't be careful and don't be safe!
Man-- Its amazing what you can learn on here. Now I know why those terrible little dogs are called that!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like if ex-Gaston can ever re-develop it may be a significant threat.



nAnd that's why I haven't stop watching this system.Got to watch out for those pesky G storms.
1198. tkeith
has been parodied ad nauseam among clueless suburban whites.

that would be me...
Quoting btwntx08:

pretty good vorticity accociated with pre gaston. the nhc is look for persistance in convection and that dry air to clear out so it will last
Too funny - posted at the same time.

I still have teenagers -- it is a rather annoying phrase. along with "crib", "snatch me up", and a few others.

Sounds like I raised heathens.
BUMP

BUMP to bring up somebody's post typically by posting the word "bump" on a message board Can also stand for Bring Up My Post
bump!

For Flood :)

Far out man, I found the dictionary... Cool :)
Please let me have your advice.

I want to but a weather station for home. I'm pretending it's for the kids but it's really for me.

I found one called Oregeon Scientific (model WMR100N). Is it okay or should I keep looking. Remember it's for the kids!!!
Quoting seflagamma:
at 1079 my page went wacky also..
what happened to make a change at post 1079>?


My post isn't causing any problems for me, and i'm on chrome, well, i'll delete it.
1204. IKE
MJO....





Nice circulation though
1206. hydrus
Quoting zoomiami:
Too funny - posted at the same time.

I still have teenagers -- it is a rather annoying phrase. along with "crib", "snatch me up", and a few others.

Sounds like I raised heathens.
I am not even going to inquire about the "snatch me up" phrase.
Thought I'd stir the conversation pot today. Sorry for confusing everyone. The Herbet box is theory only. You all are smart enough to know that though... LOL
Pick me up, give me a ride, etc.
Quoting tkeith:
has been parodied ad nauseam among clueless suburban whites.

that would be me...


I was going to Bold that section... but I decided not to... but I found that part actually hilarious.
1210. will40
Quoting Orcasystems:
BUMP

BUMP to bring up somebody's post typically by posting the word "bump" on a message board Can also stand for Bring Up My Post
bump!

For Flood :)

Far out man, I found the dictionary... Cool :)


yea that is Taz favorite word
Quoting IKE:
MJO....





could be favorable if models are right.
1212. Vero1
I deleted the video.
Winds over 125km/h in cole harbour NS sustained.
1193:

That discussion is 4 hours old, and their estimate of it's forward speed is just terrible anyway.

A degree at that latitude is about 72miles, so you can just watch the RGB.

In the last 8 to 10 hours it has averaged 22mph.


the CoC is crossing 46W as of 1415UTC.
1110. djboca 1:59 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Do I remember someone blogging the phrase "Batten down the hatches"? Are you serious? And I'm not talking about how this storm changed strength and didn't produce much damage (wind, water or otherwise). Just the phrase and its alarmist warning... how unprofessional and childish.

Stick to facts, just the facts and only the facts. There are plenty of local weather "professionals" out there who's only concern is alarming you enough to get you to watch the 10pm news. We're already coming to your blog. You don't need to stoop that low.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Post

Spanish to English translation
Not long ago, I got to be criticized by many in this blog, just because I said the hurricane season, according to meteorologists themselves, it would be super busy season, because in that comment I stated that there were many people making alarmist and panic to the climate, , today even after seven named storms, I say that according to the forecast of the majority of experts, the season is still a bust

4th September
Named storms 7
Hurricanes 3
Majors 2
USA landfalls 0 (Bonnie Was a joke)

1217. IKE
...TROPICAL STORM EARL MADE LANDFALL NEAR WESTERN HEAD NOVA SCOTIA AROUND 10 AM EDT...1400 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE PROVINCE...
11:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 4
Location: 44.3°N 64.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: NE at 36 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Quoting tkeith:
has been parodied ad nauseam among clueless suburban whites.

that would be me...
Well I live here in the neighboorhoods of D.C.Laurel street to be exsact, and well um I really didn't know what that word meant until I herd it on the train,and another time on the bus while coming home.
Quoting kimoskee:
Please let me have your advice.

I want to but a weather station for home. I'm pretending it's for the kids but it's really for me.

I found one called Oregeon Scientific (model WMR100N). Is it okay or should I keep looking. Remember it's for the kids!!!


AQUAK9 would be able to help you with this
guess Earl is no longer a fish storm lol
1221. scott39
Everyone have a good day.Im going to act like Im working in my shop.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
405 AM CDT SAT SEP 4 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY/...CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS
WHERE COLD FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY AND POP PLACEMENT. HPC COLD
FRONT PLACEMENT...NEAR BROWNSVILLE AT 12Z AND MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY...SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ALL THE
WAY NORTH TO COTULLA. MODEST DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TODAY BUT DO NOT BELIEVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST HAS ENOUGH STRENGTH TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. LOCAL ANALYSIS OF FRONTAL POSITION
HAS FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAREDO TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
COLLEGE STATION AND HOUSTON. 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES SHOW VIRTUALLY
NO PRESSURE RISES INDICATING LITTLE MOVEMENT SINCE LATE YESTERDAY.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTEGRITY AS IT MOVES INLAND
INDICATING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
WILL PLACE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY TODAY
WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE ZFP AND HWO WITH PWATS TO REMAIN AOA
2 INCHES. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH ANTICIPATED BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME AREAS YESTERDAY RECEIVING 2 TO 5 INCHES AND
STREET AND HIGHWAY FLOODING REPORTED. TEMPERATURES TO BE SUBJECT TO
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST TODAY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES. LOWER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES.
OVERALL NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WERE
LOWERED SLIGHTLY SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY REMAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER FROM MCALLEN TO THE
COAST CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO INTERACT WITH SEA BREEZE AND THE WEAKENING
SHEAR AXIS AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
&&

.LONG TERM /7 PM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS FARTHER WEST
AND OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MOST INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM EMINATING FROM
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MAKING LANDFALL OVER TAMAULIPAS STATE IN
MEXICO TUESDAY MORNING...IF GFS MODEL IS TO BE BELIEVED 100
PERCENT. NO INDICATION AT THIS TIME THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR
HOWEVER...AS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
1223. Vero1
Quoting zoomiami:
Too funny - posted at the same time.

I still have teenagers -- it is a rather annoying phrase. along with "crib", "snatch me up", and a few others.

Sounds like I raised heathens.
That's young people for ya.Their trying to be young,and cool.they'll probally understand when they get older.
Quoting Orcasystems:


It has to have something to do with that other word the kids seem to like... Bump?

We should have a rule... has to have at least a verb and a noun to be posted.


Bump is just a word to show that they are refreshing an old post from another page or "bumping it up front"
I have an 18 year old and I get the "skinny" on all the new and old expressions and when they are used. Most of them come from rappers who lack a sufficient vocabulary and make up words to express themselves taking other words and holding them for ransom. Their followers (like sheep) pick up the expressions (yeah, just like back in the 60's man, "be cool") and they become proliferated quickly and pass quickly among the young with no regard to sex or race. After a few years, you can age yourself by the expressions you use just as with the clothes you wear and the kids pick up on it. If you wanted to keep something confidential, you would say "keep it on the down low". If you slipped and said "low down" well, your cover was blown, you weren't "down"
and just low.
"Word"! is actually not used by youngsters, it is another expression still fondled by those that were teens 10 years ago and still use it in their late 20's. Fortunately for us oldsters, the word "cool" still means what it did way back when. Of course when we use it, it isn't that cool to kids, as they think we are trying to be cool to fit in with them. Any attempts to arbitrate by explaining how we have been using "cool" for 40 years, has an adverse effect and is regarded as not "cool". A "hot" teenage girl or young woman, may utter any number of nonsense words that do not mean anything close to her intended meaning and it will be accepted and considered "cool" except to those of her peers who are envious of her.
There: Linguistics 101.
There will be a pop quiz sometime. Live in fear.
1214:

Wow....if that is sustained that's actually hurricane force. Did Earl re-intensify that far north??
1227. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
...TROPICAL STORM EARL MADE LANDFALL NEAR WESTERN HEAD NOVA SCOTIA AROUND 10 AM EDT...1400 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE PROVINCE...
11:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 4
Location: 44.3°N 64.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: NE at 36 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
I would imagine folks to the east of Earl are getting hurricane force winds. They get there share of rough weather up there even when they are not getting whacked with hurricanes.
1228. Keys99
Courtesy National Weather Service Key West

ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1842...A HURRICANE...
NICKNAMED ANTJE`S HURRICANE AFTER A SCHOONER OF THE SAME NAME THAT
WAS DISMASTED BY THE STORM...MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THIS HURRICANE DAMAGED SAND KEY LIGHTHOUSE AND NUMEROUS NAVIGATION
BEACONS.
1229. IKE
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

EARL HAS MAINTAINED SOME CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING THAT IT IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...MOST THE RAIN SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE WIND FIELD IS
EXPANDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EARL IS GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS...BASED ON
SURROUNDING SURFACE DATA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OF 035 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 44.3N 64.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 48.0N 60.7W 50 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 05/1200Z 52.5N 56.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 06/0000Z 55.5N 53.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 06/1200Z 57.0N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 08/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am obviously to old... WTF does that mean??
Quoting hydrus:
LOL!!!I have seen that before, I am not really sure what it means either.
It WTF means What the Fudge (sort of)
1231. Vero1
1222. btwntx08 2:51 PM GMT on September 04, 2010

1232. ackee
I really dont thein Gaston will redevlop dir air eastern carrb shear alson on increase there
12z NAM FWIW



Quoting KanKunKid:


Bump is just a word to show that they are refreshing an old post from another page or "bumping it up front"
I have an 18 year old and I get the "skinny" on all the new and old expressions and when they are used. Most of them come from rappers who lack a sufficient vocabulary and make up words to express themselves taking other words and holding them for ransom. Their followers (like sheep) pick up the expressions (yeah, just like back in the 60's man, "be cool") and they become proliferated quickly and pass quickly among the young with no regard to sex or race. After a few years, you can age yourself by the expressions you use just as with the clothes you wear and the kids pick up on it. If you wanted to keep something confidential, you would say "keep it on the down low". If you slipped and said "low down" well, your cover was blown, you weren't "down"
and just low.
"Word"! is actually not used by youngsters, it is another expression still fondled by those that were teens 10 years ago and still use it in their late 20's. Fortunately for us oldsters, the word "cool" still means what it did way back when. Of course when we use it, it isn't that cool to kids, as they think we are trying to be cool to fit in with them. Any attempts to arbitrate by explaining how we have been using "cool" for 40 years, has an adverse effect and is regarded as not "cool". A "hot" teenage girl or young woman, may utter any number of nonsense words that do not mean anything close to her intended meaning and it will be accepted and considered "cool" except to those of her peers who are envious of her.
There: Linguistics 101.
There will be a pop quiz sometime. Live in fear.
Some people also get it from T.V.
1235. Vero1
Here we go again!

Quoting Clearwater1:


In sports terminology... the blog is playing baseball... and your playing tennis (or some other sport) :)

j/k
So here is what we know


- Earl is no longer a fish storm.

- Area in the BOC needs to be watched for development and threat to land.

- Gaston should regenerate today and is a long range threat,

- 99L not as likely to develop as before

- Tropical waves are still very strong behind 99L and we could see 2 or 3 more systems over the next week or so out there.
1238. Grothar
Quoting KanKunKid:


Bump is just a word to show that they are refreshing an old post from another page or "bumping it up front"
I have an 18 year old and I get the "skinny" on all the new and old expressions and when they are used. Most of them come from rappers who lack a sufficient vocabulary and make up words to express themselves taking other words and holding them for ransom. Their followers (like sheep) pick up the expressions (yeah, just like back in the 60's man, "be cool") and they become proliferated quickly and pass quickly among the young with no regard to sex or race. After a few years, you can age yourself by the expressions you use just as with the clothes you wear and the kids pick up on it. If you wanted to keep something confidential, you would say "keep it on the down low". If you slipped and said "low down" well, your cover was blown, you weren't "down"
and just low.
"Word"! is actually not used by youngsters, it is another expression still fondled by those that were teens 10 years ago and still use it in their late 20's. Fortunately for us oldsters, the word "cool" still means what it did way back when. Of course when we use it, it isn't that cool to kids, as they think we are trying to be cool to fit in with them. Any attempts to arbitrate by explaining how we have been using "cool" for 40 years, has an adverse effect and is regarded as not "cool". A "hot" teenage girl or young woman, may utter any number of nonsense words that do not mean anything close to her intended meaning and it will be accepted and considered "cool" except to those of her peers who are envious of her.
There: Linguistics 101.
There will be a pop quiz sometime. Live in fear.


That post was "outa sight", you must be a real hip cat! Really neat. That blog romps!
1239. h0db
Quoting weathers4me:
Thought I'd stir the conversation pot today. Sorry for confusing everyone. The Herbet box is theory only. You all are smart enough to know that though... LOL


The Hebert box is kind of like "Moore's Law" regarding computers... it was meant as a passing observation and was distorted into prophecy.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z NAM FWIW




wow this nam got real aggresive on our rain this time that right there would cause flooding alot here
80,000 people without power now in Nova Scotia and climbing at a very quick rate i still have mine but probably not for to much longer
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z NAM FWIW



I don't think the BOC system will be that intense.
Good to see that the NHC mentioned the area of disturbed weather in the BOC. If some of the global models do prove correct that area might become a tropical cyclone. The GFS has been consistent with this solution and so has the CMC, but the ECMWF has been back and forth. NOGAPS doesn't appear interested. And finally the NAM (for what it's worth) develops that area.

Quoting hurricane23:


There is no such thing.......no certain box or anything like that.. Storms go certain directions due to ridges and troughs and other things in the atmosphere to push/pull them in a direction.

They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.

All Hebert mentioned that many strong Hurricanes that effected South Florida passed through the boxes, it was an observation he made based on the study of past hurricane tracks. He never meant it to mean that a hurricane goes through the box hits South Florida.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
guess Earl is no longer a fish storm lol

Even if he recurved and didn't git Nova Scotia he wouldn't be considered a fish storm because he hit the lesser antillies.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't think the BOC system will be that intense.

that is why the nam isnt good at tropical systems but great at where it puts the rain
1247. IKE
Out-of-Gaston....




GOM....

On the subject of the Hebert boxes there is a lot of misunderstanding. What he determined was that almost all of the storms that hit Florida went through one of the boxes. If the hurricane does not pass through one of the boxes it almost never hits South Florida. The fact that a hurricane passes through one of the Hebert boxes is not much of a predictor of landfall in Florida.
1249. Grothar
OK, so what happened to the blog last night? I know it has probably been explained 142 times already, but I don't have time to look back. Just make it short.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
So here is what we know


- Earl is no longer a fish storm.

- Area in the BOC needs to be watched for development and threat to land.

- Gaston should regenerate today and is a long range threat,

- 99L not as likely to develop as before

- Tropical waves are still very strong behind 99L and we could see 2 or 3 more systems over the next week or so out there.
Bingo! Great post. 99L still worth watching though, probably won't develop, but the possibility is there.
1251. eye
For the CONUS (most of us live) Earl was a rain event and not even as bad as the two winters storms we had last winter. This has been a very mild hurricane season in terms of serious threats to the CONUS. Cape Hatteras gets worse storms in the winter than Earl was.....
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good to see that the NHC mentioned the area of disturbed weather in the BOC. If some of the global models do prove correct that area might become a tropical cyclone. The GFS has been consistent with this solution and so has the CMC, but the ECMWF has been back and forth. NOGAPS doesn't appear interested. And finally the NAM (for what it's worth) develops that area.
I think it could be nothing more than a rain maker.
1253. will40
Quoting Grothar:
OK, so what happened to the blog last night? I know it has probably been explained 142 times already, but I don't have time to look back. Just make it short.


i havent seen an explanation
1254. Grothar
Patience.

whats the forecast on the item just now removing itself from the african coast, lots of moisture attached with it but not much in the way of organizational structure as with the previous waves.
Gaston its a little storm
WOW LOOK BEHIND 99L


maybe pre 90L

Very interesting.

Danielle may have created enough upwelling to actually begin to cause a focusing of upward motion in the tropical Atlantic.

1259. Grothar
Quoting will40:


i havent seen an Exclamation


Yo, will. Where you been? You don't know what happened either?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't think the BOC system will be that intense.


I just drove through that area of Mexico about 6 weeks ago and they were still reeling from Alex. The real threat to that part of the country is rain. In that part of the country there are lots of hilly terrain and flash floods and general flooding is a huge problem.
So, even if it fizzles as far as becoming a hurricane, it may do more damage than Earl, or not. Since it's forecast to go NW, I doubt if it will be over water long enough to make something of itself.
Quoting Grothar:
OK, so what happened to the blog last night? I know it has probably been explained 142 times already, but I don't have time to look back. Just make it short.
Not sure, it was stuck for a long time on page 6. No one seems to know why, but some comments made it through. They just took a long time to show. I ran out of patience waiting for it and hit the sack. It did eventually continue, as I read back to check. Good morning, all.
some large branches and some tress are beginning to fall in halifax and dartmouth nova scotia now were beginning to reach our peak here in the city.
yeah that was what they were saying, Igor, was the one over the African inland area.
Quoting will40:


i havent seen an Exclamation


I haven't seen a explanation either. Probably some beer spilled down into the server, it's not like that has never happened.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think it could be nothing more than a rain maker.
It definitely won't become a hurricane, weak tropical storm is probably all it'll become, but an anticyclone is centered over the area and conditions are favorable so it does have a chance to spin up. It may try to pull a Gert (2005) or a Jose (2005), albeit a little weaker than both of those examples.
1266. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
Patience.

Good morning Gro..A little break in the action until Gaston regenerates and the possibility of a Gulf system.
1267. will40
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, will. Where you been? You don't know what happened either?


no all i got was an Email from admin saying they were working on it
Quoting Grothar:


That post was "outa sight", you must be a real hip cat! Really neat. That blog romps!
I also hear my granchildren saying something is stink meaning good. LOL And I thought my generation was weird. At least we could figure out what was meant. When I heard my grandson say something was stink and I said it wasn't he laughed at me and said that means it's good. Go figure.
ouch lots of rain coming here
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Bingo! Great post. 99L still worth watching though, probably won't develop, but the possibility is there.
Mother nature knows,as well as we do what shes doing.The system in the BOC should become Hermain,and the vigorous wave over africa should become Igor,and be a threat.That's just how I see.You can call me menso(stupid in spanish.) or loco(craz in spanish) all ou want.
1271. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Gro..A little break in the action until Gaston regenerates and the possibility of a Gulf system.


Hey, hy. Gaston really has a lot of dry air around it. If it can make it throught that, it could regenerate within the next 48 hours if it is able to draw in that moisture field from the South.
1272. will40
and Grothar where i been is in a shelter on the mainland. I got back on the Island yesterday morn. Earl was just looking like too close of a call thursday morn so i left.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Even if he recurved and didn't git Nova Scotia he wouldn't be considered a fish storm because he hit the lesser antillies.
1275. Grothar
Quoting will40:


no all i got was an Email from admin saying they were working on it


Thanks will. At least they answer you. Never saw it down that long. Where you here when it crashed because of too many comments a few years back?
1276. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, hy. Gaston really has a lot of dry air around it. If it can make it throught that, it could regenerate within the next 48 hours if it is able to draw in that moisture field from the South.
It is a guess, but once Ex-Gaston moves into the Caribbean, the system will thrive on the warm pools of water and the moist environment.
Quoting hydrus:
I would imagine folks to the east of Earl are getting hurricane force winds. They get there share of rough weather up there even when they are not getting whacked with hurricanes.
just a rainy windy day and in a couple of months a typical blizzard
since the boc system is 20% we could have a invest 90L later today perhaps
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
WOW LOOK BEHIND 99L


maybe pre 90L

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
WOW LOOK BEHIND 99L


maybe pre 90L

Igor!.Sorry for quoting ou two times.Meant to quote Gorther.
1280. will40
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks will. At least they answer you. Never saw it down that long. Where you here when it crashed because of too many comments a few years back?
1281. Bielle
Does anyone here have a link to what the tides in the Bay of Fundy are/were like around the time this morning when Earl made landfall in Nova Scotia? Thanks.
1282. Grothar
Quoting will40:
and Grothar where i been is in a shelter on the mainland. I got back on the Island yesterday morn. Earl was just looking like too close of a call thursday morn so i left.


Smart move. More people should follow your example. What island where you on? I forgot where you lived. At my age, I sometimes forget where I live.
I'm thinking on the "re-analysis" earl will have been a 'cane going into Canada.
anyone seen kman, liked his partake on Earl, would like his take on the rest of the systems
The Aftermath of Hurricane Earl on the island of Antigua
Quoting btwntx08:
since the boc system is 20% we could have a invest 90L later today perhaps
Likely. Steering in the area is very weak so it might just stay stationary with wobbles towards the WNW and nothing more, so we know what model plots are going to say. More interestingly, I'm intrigued to see what type of intensity the models think this will get to.

1288. will40
Quoting Grothar:


Smart move. More people should follow your example. What island where you on? I forgot where you lived. At my age, I sometimes forget where I live.


Emerald Isle NC about 20 miles south of MoreHead City NC
Quoting 1fromnovasscotia:
some large branches and some tress are beginning to fall in halifax and dartmouth nova scotia now were beginning to reach our peak here in the city.


We're thinking of you. Stay safe!
1290. will40
Speaking of age i was here when Hazel came thorough so i understand age lol
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
anyone seen kman, liked his partake on Earl, would like his take on the rest of the systems


You rang ??
Quoting hydrus:
It is a guess, but once Ex-Gaston moves into the Caribbean, the system will thrive on the warm pools of water and the moist environment.
And now is when the carribean decides to get moist.(rolls eyes).
1293. Grothar
Quoting will40:


Emerald Isle NC about 20 miles south of MoreHead City NC


Wow, that is really a beautiful area. Lucky Did they much beach erosion?(Ever look for Blackbeard's treasure?) That island has some history.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Likely. Steering in the area is very weak so it might just stay stationary with wobbles towards the WNW and nothing more, so we know what model plots are going to say. More interestingly, I'm intrigued to see what type of intensity the models think this will get to.



BOC waters are very warm and have not been tapped for 2 months

with weak steering, I see no reason why this couldn't be something decent
With that ULL in the eastern Carribean, Gaston will have a tough time cranking up..
1296. will40
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, that is really a beautiful area. Lucky Did they much beach erosion?(Ever look for Blackbeard's treasure?) That island has some history.


lost a lil sand but it faired pretty good
Hi from Annapolis Valley. Apple trees still intact as Earl pushed east with the force of the magnificent system from the west. Still windy but bands of sunshine that could have been the eye. We had gusts to 95 but we were on the west side - not the forcasted rain. Halifax is getting hammered. Storm seemed to tighten up when accelerating but the hoophouse roped down did not go sailing. Did Earl really have an eye going over Southern NS?
Quoting kmanislander:


You rang ??
Hey Kman! Can I ask you some questions?

1| You're input on ex-Gaston.
2| You're input on the area of disturbed weather in the BOC.'

Sorry that they're a couple, just wondering on your input.
1299. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just a rainy windy day and in a couple of months a typical blizzard
I saw footage of Hurricane Jose,s damage to that region. I was surprised to see such heavy wind damage from a bona fide tropical cyclone so far north.
1300. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
Igor!.Sorry for quoting ou two times.Meant to quote Gorther.


It is Grothar, pronounced Gro-tar. The "h" is silent, unlike Mrs. Grothar.
Quoting 1fromnovasscotia:
80,000 people without power now in Nova Scotia and climbing at a very quick rate i still have mine but probably not for to much longer


Looks Like Nova Scotia Getting Pounded... Reporting 75mph+ Gusts Now at Halfax..
1302. will40
Groth here is a pier cam from the island

Link
Quoting Hurricanes101:


BOC waters are very warm and have not been tapped for 2 months

with weak steering, I see no reason why this couldn't be something decent


That sounds like two guys checking out a bar scene.
Kman, whats your partake on the systems out there and the idea that Gaston is reforming? Something has to get into the Caribbean, and in your opinion what will that be?
Quoting Hurricanes101:


BOC waters are very warm and have not been tapped for 2 months

with weak steering, I see no reason why this couldn't be something decent
A 60 mph tropical storm.....
1307. centex
Quoting Hurricanes101:


BOC waters are very warm and have not been tapped for 2 months

with weak steering, I see no reason why this couldn't be something decent
Don't forget land.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


BOC waters are very warm and have not been tapped for 2 months

with weak steering, I see no reason why this couldn't be something decent
Check this out:

Anticyclone centered over the area of disturbed weather. Upper level winds are just 5-10 knots.



The environment it is in also isn't too dry.

850mb Vort from TD 11E is transferring into the BOC.
unless LongIslandXpress38 the ULL move out quick enough
1311. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE FAR N GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL STALL ALONG 29N LATE TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY
DRIFT N AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY W-SW TO NEAR 26N91W THEN BECOMING A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W WILL
DRIFT N AND NW THROUGH MON NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING NEAR TROUGH. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.

...............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A
MODEST PRES GRADIENT AND GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MON. THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF GASTON WAS LOCATED E
OF THE AREA NEAR 16.5N46W THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE W...REACHING NEAR 16.5N55W MON MORNING...NEAR 16.5N60W
TUE MORNING...AND NEAR 17N64W WED MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANYTIME DURING THIS PERIOD.

Quoting Grothar:


It is Grothar, pronounced Gro-tar. The "h" is silent, unlike Mrs. Grothar.
Sorry.Thanks for giving me the right pronouceation.It looks like MH09's prediction of will come true.....
Quoting centex:
Don't forget land.

it has weak steering currents so that gives it time to develop pretty good out of it
Little Blob in the BOC

Que

GULFCASTERS.TEXASCASATERS,NOLACASTERS,KATRINACASTERS,FISHCASTERS,WESTCASTERS
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey Kman! Let me ask you some questions.

1| You're input on ex-Gaston.
2| You're input on the area of disturbed weather in the BOC.'

Sorry that they're a couple.


No problem. What are Saturday's for eh ??. Let's take them one at a time.

1. Gaston

This system has been struggling with dry air and shear. However, Gaston is leaving an area of 25 to 30 knots of shear and will enter an area of lower shear very soon. On that basis, and given the very vigorous circulation still evident I expect convection to redevelop later today or tonight. Here is the shear tendency map and you can see that Gaston is now right on the very extreme edge of the high shear boundary. The 850 vort is still very strong so IMO Gaston is not finished.




2. The BOC

There is no vorticity at the 850 mb level and the convergence and divergence are not stacked on top of each other. The convergence is off to the WNW near the coast and the divergence is right down near the Southern coast. There are no signs of anything imminent with this feature. Development, IMO, will be slow to occur here if at all and would likely be hampered by proximity to land. Just an area to be watched for now.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Check this out:

Anticyclone centered over the area of disturbed weather. Upper level winds are just 5-10 knots.



The environment it is in also isn't too dry.



So how to you pronounce anticyclone?

Is it like antifreeze the British style kill the long I and put the emphasis on the second syllable: an TISS uh Clone
or like a redneck pronounces cement with the first vowel long and with the emphasis SEE ment.
Or ant eye SIGH clone.

Just curious. I'm not making an advertisement or anything.
Good morning everyone! More rain might be on the way for NE Mexico en Deep South Texas.





1319. centex
Quoting btwntx08:

it has weak steering currents so that gives it time to develop pretty good out of it
Ok, just pointing out the main factor that could limit development.
May someone post a satalite pick of africa please.Thank you.
Quoting Grothar:


That post was "outa sight", you must be a real hip cat! Really neat. That blog romps!


No, you are one hep cat Grothar! Well I gotta 23 skiddo and listen to my 45's of Ish Kabibble.
1322. MZT
Interior N.C. could use some rain. We have had a pretty dry summer here - I've only mowed my yard 3 times this year, and have had to water some of my trees. This blocking high has been over us for two weeks now.

Gaston could be a TS or weak CAT1 and land here, fine with me.
SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEW
DEVELOPMENT.
Quoting Grothar:


It is Grothar, pronounced Gro-tar. The "h" is silent, unlike Mrs. Grothar.


My old friend grothar...I take your wife doesn't spend any time in here?
Quoting will40:
and Grothar where i been is in a shelter on the mainland. I got back on the Island yesterday morn. Earl was just looking like too close of a call thursday morn so i left.
So how were things when you got back. I still would have done what you did. Folks keep saying it was no worse than a good norwestener. What they forget is that the potentule for a lot more than a good winter storm was there and that there are a lot more people to get in your way getting out in the tourist season so you must commit earlier if you want to leave. I still think you made the wiser choice.
Quoting centex:
Ok, just pointing out the main factor that could limit development.

ok lol
I think everyone take a break and watch some college football. nothing major is going to happen within the next 8-12 hours anyway.
1328. will40
Quoting washingtonian115:
May someone post a satalite pick of africa please.Thank you.


Link

sat link
Thanks Kman!

Quoting KanKunKid:


So how to you pronounce anticyclone?

Is it like antifreeze the British style kill the long I and put the emphasis on the second syllable: an TISS uh Clone
or like a redneck pronounces cement with the first vowel long and with the emphasis SEE ment.
Or ant eye SIGH clone.

Just curious. I'm not making an advertisement or anything.
LMAO!!! You pronounce it: an-tie-CI-clone.
1330. breald
Shoot it more windy now than it ever was last night. At least it doesn't feel like you are in the middle of a bowl of soup. The sun is still very warm though. i am so ready for Autumn.
Two questions to anyone who knows:

Why are storms staying so weak over the east atlantic?

Why no carribean/GOM/east coast homebrew storms? (Exception being Alex, that kind of was... but we seem to have more than that usually)
Quoting Hurricanes101:


BOC waters are very warm and have not been tapped for 2 months

with weak steering, I see no reason why this couldn't be something decent

agreed
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Kman, whats your partake on the systems out there and the idea that Gaston is reforming? Something has to get into the Caribbean, and in your opinion what will that be?


See my post 1316. Gaston is rapidly approaching 50 W. Typically, weak disorganized systems like this have a tendency to blow up between 55 and 63 W. The best I think Gaston can do between where he is now and 60 W would be a TD or 40 mph TS. The real issue is whether he can regain TD status before 63W. If he does and stays low then all bets would be off for intensity if he tracks West through the Caribbean.

Long term I think that Gaston will either not amount to much at all or become another major.
Quoting centex:
Don't forget land.


systems in that area of developed and gotten fairly strong despite proximity to land
1335. Grothar
Quoting Floodman:
Quoting Grothar:


It is Grothar, pronounced Gro-tar. The "h" is silent, unlike Mrs. Grothar.


My old friend grothar...I take your wife doesn't spend any time in here?


Thinks I am booring wasting my time on the blog. Her reasoning is, "Look outside; if it is raining carry an unbrella" Pure logic.
1337. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:
Quoting Grothar:


It is Grothar, pronounced Gro-tar. The "h" is silent, unlike Mrs. Grothar.


My old friend grothar...I take your wife doesn't spend any time in here?
Flood, did you read my post for you this morning?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thanks Kman!

You pronounce it: an-ti-CI-clone.

You mean ant ee SIGH clone?
Quoting KanKunKid:


You mean ant ee SIGH clone?
My bad. It's an-tee-SIGH-clone.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


systems in that area of developed and gotten fairly strong despite proximity to land


Yes, Opal came from there.
Quoting Roger Ramjet:


You mean ant ee SIGH clone?


Judging by the demeanor on the blog today, I think the BOC isn't the only thing that hasn't been tapped for 2 months..
1314:was that nesesary no just look at the models
Quoting winter123:
Two questions to anyone who knows:

Why are storms staying so weak over the east atlantic?

Why no carribean/GOM/east coast homebrew storms? (Exception being Alex, that kind of was... but we seem to have more than that usually)
For the first the reason wh storms are probally staying weak over the east atlantic because of dry air.second question is once again due to dry sinking air.
1344. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No, you are one hep cat Grothar! Well I gotta 23 skiddo and listen to my 45's of Ish Kabibble.


You're the bee's knees, Geoff. Still have one old Kay Kyser album on a 78. It is scratched, but still a keeper. What do you think of ex-Gaston
Quoting Orcasystems:


The geography of the Hebert Boxes is the key to their use as predictors. The boxes are located such that hurricanes have plenty of space to intensify after passing through them, and the prevailing winds tend to push them towards Florida. Conversely, if they pass outside the box they are either too close to land to intensify much, or are far enough away from land that they are more subject to the influences of steering winds and other atmospheric conditions. These tend to either push the hurricane more westward across the Caribbean Sea towards the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, or into the Gulf of Mexico where they threaten Mexico and the Gulf Coast states, or eastwards causing them to curve outwards over the Atlantic and miss landfall altogether.[1]

While these boxes provide an indication that a hurricane may threaten South Florida, a hurricane does not have to pass through one to strike there, as were the case with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Andrew, though the latter did skirt the edges of the eastern box. Additionally, a hurricane which does pass through a Hebert Box can very easily miss Florida, or indeed any landfall entirely.[3] Hebert himself acknowledged that the boxes are not a guarantee of hurricane landfall either way, but cautions that if a hurricane passes through one, "really, really pay attention. We worry plenty in August and September when one goes through that box, and we have a certain comfort level when one misses the box."[1]


Are we allowed to quote Wikipedia without reference? Hmmmmm ...
back later
Quoting extreme236:
SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEW
DEVELOPMENT.
As mentioned by StormW a chunk of energy from 11 and a trough of low pressure is causing the cloudiness.In the Bay of Campeche.
Station 44150 - La Have Bank
Owned and maintained by Environment Canada
3-meter discus buoy
42.500 N 64.020 W (42°30'0" N 64°1'12" W)

Conditions at 44150 as of
(12:00 pm ADT)
1500 GMT on 09/04/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 230 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 54.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 41.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.28 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.20 in ( Rising
Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 69.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 63.9 °F

That's a big wave!
Quoting winter123:

This will be cat 5 just west of new orleans then continue NE and curve back to hit just west of NYC.
Not gonna happen....
Here's a cool image of Earl when it was a category 2 hurricane. Notice the trough approaching him.

Quoting breald:
Shoot it more windy now than it ever was last night. At least it doesn't feel like you are in the middle of a bowl of soup. The sun is still very warm though. i am so ready for Autumn.

cool here breezy as well

Quoting LongIslandXpress38:
Station 44150 - La Have Bank
Owned and maintained by Environment Canada
3-meter discus buoy
42.500 N 64.020 W (42°30'0" N 64°1'12" W)

Conditions at 44150 as of
(12:00 pm ADT)
1500 GMT on 09/04/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 230 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 54.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 41.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.28 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.20 in ( Rising
Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 69.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 63.9 °F

That's a big wave!


Link?
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Are we allowed to quote Wikipedia without reference? Hmmmmm ...


Orca Systems can do whatever he wants here. Last guy that questioned him disappeared. They say Orca has Jimmy Hoffa's watch in his desk drawer..!!
The models seem to try to develop the northern part of 99L, but the southern part would seem more likely at this point to develop. The low pressure is elongated through much of the system.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Link?


Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

cool here breezy as well



Are you in the GTA? I spent the first 4 months of this year in Mississauga. Lots of middle eastern folk and food. Expensive, but nice. Everybody is rich! LOL.

I forgot to add. I liked everyplace there to eat except Swiss Chalet:
BTWNTX08, where are you from? Corpus here....
Quoting KanKunKid:


Orca Systems can do whatever he wants here. Last guy that questioned him disappeared. They say Orca has Jimmy Hoffa's watch in his desk drawer..!!


What ever you do, don't sneak into his pool after dark!
1360. breald
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

cool here breezy as well



Yep, they storm should be pushing thru Nova Scotia about this time. I hope everyone up there stays safe and checks in with us when they get a chance.
ECMWF forecasts 2 more CV storms to form in the 240 hour period (not including 99L).
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE FAR N GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL STALL ALONG 29N LATE TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY
DRIFT N AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY W-SW TO NEAR 26N91W THEN BECOMING A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W WILL
DRIFT N AND NW THROUGH MON NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING NEAR TROUGH. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.

...............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A
MODEST PRES GRADIENT AND GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MON. THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF GASTON WAS LOCATED E
OF THE AREA NEAR 16.5N46W THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE W...REACHING NEAR 16.5N55W MON MORNING...NEAR 16.5N60W
TUE MORNING...AND NEAR 17N64W WED MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANYTIME DURING THIS PERIOD.

UFFF!!17n64w, Hope it doesn't get to strong, Puerto Rico islands begin at 65W,18N !
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Does anybody have the asscat pass chart for GOM this morning?
Quoting KanKunKid:


Are you in the GTA? I spent the first 4 months of this year in Mississauga. Lots of middle eastern folk and food. Expensive, but nice. Everybody is rich! LOL.

I forgot to add. I liked everyplace there to eat except Swiss Chalet:
yeah iam in the GTA in the eastside
"After causing up to $150 million in damage in the Caribbean and generating waves as high as 49 feet, Earl was headed northwest toward the Carolinas late Wednesday, forcing evacuations along the Outer Banks barrier islands."

Here comes the start of Gaston Part 3

Just as he gets on the threshold of the area of low shear convection begins to refire on the Western side of the circulation.

impressive spin with ex gaston CATL LOOP.

All he needs is more convection. I expect this could happen later today
Quoting kmanislander:
Here comse the start of Gaston Part 3

Just as he gets on the threshold of the area of low shear convection begins to refire on the Western side of the circulation.



Do I hear strains of the theme from "Rocky" in the background?
Quoting CaribBoy:
impressive spin with ex gaston CATL LOOP.

All he needs is more convection. I expect this could happen later today
Indeed. He maintains a vigorous, closed, and well-defined circulation. All he needs in reality is a decent convective burst over the circulation to get re-classified as a tropical depression.
Sorry about the double post. Please enjoy the 12z ATCF best track of ex-Gaston suggesting he has a pressure of 1008mb and winds of 35mph. Lol.

AL, 09, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 163N, 456W, 30, 1008, LO,
Quoting KanKunKid:


Do I hear strains of the theme from "Rocky" in the background?


Funny, I thought I heard the same music LOL
IMO.....ex Gaston is getting ready to FIRE up QUICK...he's getting out of the high shear and I think this could be alot of problems for the Carribean in the very near future!!
Gaston passed well north of the mid-atlantic station 41041 14.3N 46W at 12h50 GMT

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041&unit=M&tz=STN
Quoting kmanislander:


Funny, I thought I heard the same music LOL


Lets hope ol' Gassy, stays out of our neighborhood. Although, I seriously doubt we will escape unscathed this season.
So...how are the barametric pressures for the open open determined? How many weather buoys are there in the Atlantic?
Quoting extreme236:
ECMWF forecasts 2 more CV storms to form in the 240 hour period (not including 99L).
are both forecast to turn north of 20n before 60w?
Quoting KanKunKid:


Lets hope ol' Gassy, stays out of our neighborhood. Although, I seriously doubt we will escape unscathed this season.


You got that right. CAT 5 if he gets into the central and NW Caribbean.
Quoting extreme236:
ECMWF forecasts 2 more CV storms to form in the 240 hour period (not including 99L).
Which would be Igor,and Julia.That is if the system in the BOC doesn't develope first.
Quoting KanKunKid:


Do I hear strains of the theme from "Rocky" in the background?


Once the other side gets convection, expect the music to be louder lol
1366:

Yup.

The leading edge is also starting to move over the second "peak" in the Potential intensity sweet spot, so he "should" hold his own till sunset, and then intensify overnight and into DMAX.
Just so that isn't the "Jaws" theme in the background.
ocean>
What do you know, lake effect rain up by Watertown. I commented yesterday how it reminded me of a frontal system you'd see in november and I guess I was right.

This is ridiculous, we're at the top of the scale!

1386. Levi32
The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop.

However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem.
Quoting kmanislander:


You got that right. CAT 5 if he gets into the central and NW Caribbean.
aAnd that's wh you just can't write off sneak little systems like Gaston so easily.
I posted a GOES-15 image.

Its its slowing anyone's computer, tell me, and I'll take it down.
Quoting caneswatch:


Once the other side gets convection, expect the music to be louder lol


Moisture starting to fill in on the SE side as well which was bare this morning.

1390. Bielle
Quoting will40:
Speaking of age i was here when Hazel came thorough so i understand age lol


I sat on the stairs between the ground and second floors of our house on Wards Island in the Toronto Islands chain and watched Hurricane Hazel pour the waters of Lake Ontario over the sea wall and into our house. The rising water worked its way up to the top of the fifth step, where four of us, with our 16-year-old babysitter, wondered if we would ever see our parents again. I was 5 years old. Even bigger was my worry that we would be blamed for the mess in the house.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is ridiculous, we're at the top of the scale!



Off the scale actually in the Western Caribbean which shows all "white"
have read on the blog that ridge will become well established .but long range models show very little ridging to the north of any system that moves into caribbean. models show a sharp
poleward turn.that is good for the us.
Quoting kmanislander:


You got that right. CAT 5 if he gets into the central and NW Caribbean.


If I miss my guess, I believe that if a wave so much as FARTS in the Caribbean, it's going to be a monster! The pattern changed after Earl and those low lat storms now are more pointed west. No more fish turns mid Atlantic for awhile for them. Scary and exciting all at the same time! I think when I see a big catX heading toward me, the scale will tilt into the scary. Travel in this area is a cluster on a good day.
Quoting Levi32:
The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop.

However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem.


Good Morning to you too, Levi.

lol
Anything that gets into the western Caribbean would really bomb out, look at the TCHP!
1396. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good Morning to you too, Levi.

lol


Sorry, good morning, lol.
Quoting Levi32:
The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop.

However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem.


Thanks for the clarification Levi. I appreciate that.
Quoting KanKunKid:


If I miss my guess, I believe that if a wave so much as FARTS in the Caribbean, it's going to be a monster! The pattern changed after Earl and those low lat storms now are more pointed west. No more fish turns mid Atlantic for awhile for them. Scary and exciting all at the same time! I think when I see a big catX heading toward me, the scale will tilt into the scary. Travel in this area is a cluster on a good day.


Come Oct. and Nov. we then have the cold fronts to worry about as several major hurricanes have spun up from lows on the tail end of these.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is ridiculous, we're at the top of the scale!

Just imagine if somethind gets in their.....I could already here the jaws music getting louder.That's insane.Another wilma like system is defentall not out of the question...
1401. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:


Come Oct. and Nov. we then have the cold fronts to worry about as several major hurricanes have spun up from lows on the tail end of these.


That is true....and I've often wondered what we may see at the back end of this year given that it's a La Nina, and with SSTs abnormally warm, cold surges into the United States could cause big problems in the Caribbean late in the year.
The TCHP across the Caribbean sea continues to increase due to several factors.

1) No tropical cyclone has passed through any part of the Caribbean sea since late June.
2) The NAO has been negative since early August. A negative NAO usually leads to weaker trade winds which in turn causes less upwelling.
3) Cloud cover has been minimal thus allowing for even more heating of the ocean surface and deeper depths.


Figure 1. Notice the very, very large pool of 100 kJ cm-2. Also notice the increasing pool 150 kJ cm-2 in the southwestern Caribbean sea.

If environmental conditions are absolutely perfect, a stationary tropical depression could become a category 5 major hurricane in the pool of 120 kJ cm-2 waters in less than 48 hours.

Did anyone say "OUCH!", because I sure did!
Updated AVN. See the "reds" reappearing ?

Back later. Have a few errends to run

Quoting Levi32:


That is true....and I've often wondered what we may see at the back end of this year given that it's a La Nina, and with SSTs abnormally warm, cold surges into the United States could cause big problems in the Caribbean late in the year.


Hi Levi, very true. Have to run now but will chat later.
1385:

I'm pretty sure the bright white patch is actually OFF the scale...
Levi, look at #1258
Quoting Levi32:


That is true....and I've often wondered what we may see at the back end of this year given that it's a La Nina, and with SSTs abnormally warm, cold surges into the United States could cause big problems in the Caribbean late in the year.
Levi don't look now but I see an area of low pressure about to exit the coast at a low lattitude over africa.Do you think that systems of that lattitude could still recurve?
Levi---do you have a forecast for Gaston?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The TCHP across the Caribbean sea continues to increase due to several factors.

1) No tropical cyclone has passed through any part of the Caribbean sea since late June.
2) The NAO has been negative since earl August. A negative NAO usually leads to weaker trade winds which in turn causes less upwelling.
3) Cloud cover has been minimal thus allowing for even more heating of the ocean surface and deeper depths.


Figure 1. Notice the very, very large pool of 100 kJ cm-2. Also notice the increasing pool 150 kJ cm-2 in the southwestern Caribbean sea.

If environmental conditions are absolutely perfect, a stationary tropical depression could become a category 5 major hurricane in the pool of 120 kJ cm-2 waters in less than 48 hours.

Did anyone say "OUCH!", because I sure did!
Ican here the jaws music getting louder,and louder.If Gaston decides to visit that side of the carribean,and conditions are perfect....well that's just not painting a pretty picture in m head.That could support a 190mph hurricane......but who knows...
1410. hydrus
Quoting kmanislander:
Updated AVN. See the "reds" reappearing ?

Back later. Have a few errends to run

I can tell just by the sat pic you posted that Gaston is going to get organized rather quickly after leaving the dry air.
1411. usa777
Im glad Earl passed pretty much uneventfully through the area. Now lets all hope Gaston does the same. I look back on my experienc during Katrina and I like most on here find these storms fascinating and beautiful. I've actually read alot of posts from people that actually would like to experience a big storm. I'm sure there's plenty of people that post here that can assure you that you dont want any part of one of these storms. Even a cat 1!! It will change your life in was's that cant be easily explained. Lets all enjoy Gaston from a distance and pray it doesn't come close to anyone.
1412. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Levi, look at #1258


It's possible, but it will have to last a while to give any significant effect. Wakes often take a long time to "heal" though so it may be the case. Interesting to say the least.

Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Levi---do you have a forecast for Gaston?


Slow development, if any, for the next few days. There's too much dry air and subsidence around in the central Atlantic. The track should be predominantly west, towards the northern Caribbean, and the islands could get some rainfall out of this down the road. The track after that is uncertain, but if Gaston survives, he could easily threaten land. We'll have to see how he's looking when he reaches the Caribbean to determine whether he will develop, but right now conditions do not favor much progress.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The TCHP across the Caribbean sea continues to increase due to several factors.

1) No tropical cyclone has passed through any part of the Caribbean sea since late June.
2) The NAO has been negative since earl August. A negative NAO usually leads to weaker trade winds which in turn causes less upwelling.
3) Cloud cover has been minimal thus allowing for even more heating of the ocean surface and deeper depths.


Figure 1. Notice the very, very large pool of 100 kJ cm-2. Also notice the increasing pool 150 kJ cm-2 in the southwestern Caribbean sea.

If environmental conditions are absolutely perfect, a stationary tropical depression could become a category 5 major hurricane in the pool of 120 kJ cm-2 waters in less than 48 hours.

Did anyone say "OUCH!", because I sure did!



This will be scary! (gonna borrow - thanks!)
Levi, what is your thought on this?

1417. Levi32
Quoting washingtonian115:
Levi don't look now but I see an area of low pressure about to exit the coast at a low lattitude over africa.Do you think that systems of that lattitude could still recurve?


Of course they can, but obviously systems that come off Africa at a lower latitude have a smaller probability of recurving. Eventually one of these Cape Verde systems will make it all the way across. Gaston could be the one if he survives, but there are plenty more coming behind him as well.
1418. pottery
Good Lunch-Time, all.
A little rain is falling, which is nice. It was as hot as Hades this morning.
Gaston seems to be Ominous, to me.
But I still think that he will chug a bit more north, and end up just north of the Islands.
If he gets into the Carib Sea, Bad Stuff will occur.
Thanks Levi---I sure miss your "Tropical Tidbits". Hope you are enjoying your college experience.
1-2-3

12z GFS


174 hours out
Quoting Levi32:
The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop.

However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem.


I usually agree with you, but here I will not

the NHC has not mentioned once that TD 11-E and the area in the BOC are linked and the area in the BOC showed up on the TWO last night before TD 11-E even made landfall

I think the area of disturbed weather is not from TD 11-E, but that the former TD could help aid in development

Models have been latching on, so I see no reason why we could not see some slow development
1422. Levi32
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi, what is your thought on this?

Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi, what is your thought on this?



I posted about it on the last page:

"The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop.

However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem."
DOC HAS A NEW BLOG POSTED
Convection continues to fire over the westward quadrant. I gotta say, ex-Gaston is a pretty cute lil' guy (LOL)...too bad he won't stay that way if he makes it into the Caribbean.

Great thoughts Levi and Kman, always interested to see what you guys have to say. On the SAL product, the dry air layer is diminishing near Gaston which should favor a more steady intensification sooner, rather than later. So right now I think the NHC should keep the 70% chance going, given that he has a well defined low level circulation and shear is subsiding.
Aww, look how cute Gaston is. xD
1427. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:
This is the week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!





We are soooooo all doom.
If I lived on the Yucatan Peninsula or western Cuba, I would watch the tropics closely.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
1-2-3

12z GFS


174 hours out
192 hours:

1429. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I usually agree with you, but here I will not

the NHC has not mentioned once that TD 11-E and the area in the BOC are linked and the area in the BOC showed up on the TWO last night before TD 11-E even made landfall

I think the area of disturbed weather is not from TD 11-E, but that the former TD could help aid in development

Models have been latching on, so I see no reason why we could not see some slow development


I was puzzled as well why the NHC did not mention TD 11E in the TWO, but looking at visible loops of the area I see a pretty large circulation area associated with TD 11E and it extends into the southern BOC quite easily. I don't see two separate entities at all.

An ASCAT pass will shortly be available but CIMSS 850mb vorticity shows the concentration of spin over Mexico in association with TD 11E, with some vorticity over the southern BOC extending northward from that, clearly having some relation with TD 11E.

The rapid-scan product doesn't even have any vorticity extending into the BOC.



Quoting DestinJeff:
This is the week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Now you remind me of "Russel Case" (Randy Quaid) from "Independence Day" -"Haven't I been sayin' it? I been sayin' it for 10 %$&# years now"
Quoting winter123:
What do you know, lake effect rain up by Watertown. I commented yesterday how it reminded me of a frontal system you'd see in november and I guess I was right.



Totally...same here in Cleveland...it's chilly here today and lake effect clouds!!!
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Thanks Levi---I sure miss your "Tropical Tidbits". Hope you are enjoying your college experience.


Yeah, I miss em too, add me to the long list!
any thoughts on Gaston and where he may end up hopefully not southeast florida but was just wondering on anyones thoughts!!
A happy ending for JFV. We got Hurricane Gaston making landfall over Miami. LOL.

240 hours:

Levi, upon reading many of your posts over the last several days I am greatly disappointed that so many people place their faith in your forecasts. I for one do believe that Ex-Guston will if fact evolve into a formidable tropical cyclone and has the potential to affect multiple land masses. Your reasoning makes no sense and gives folks a false sense of security.
The 12z GFS racap:

Gaston: Turns into a hurricane. Passes over the northern Lesser Antilles. Then goes just north of Hispañiola and Cuba. Then makes landfall over south Florida. Makes a second landfall over the Florida panhandle.

Hermine: Develops in the BOC and tracks over Mexico.

Igor: Develops into a major hurricane and does a track very similar to Earl.

Julia: Becomes a hurricane; stays out to sea the entire run.

Karl: Becomes a weak tropical storm and then dissipates.

Lisa: Becomes a weak tropical storm at the end of the run.

The GFS is scary huh?
miamihurricane is that what i am seeing gaston if it makes it possibly hitting miami just a little concerned me living in dania beach just north of miami
Quoting 1fromnovasscotia:
some large branches and some tress are beginning to fall in halifax and dartmouth nova scotia now were beginning to reach our peak here in the city.

Thanks for keeping us informed on Earl in NS. Hope ya'll are safe and get your power back soon
i guess everyone is gone.....
Quoting Levi32:


Sorry, good morning, lol.
Just to let you know, anybody learning in here, your tropical tidbits are the best!! Explained things well enough that as unversed as I am, can understand.
Oh, and good morning, afternoon or evening-depending on where you are
Quoting reedzonemyhero:
Levi, upon reading many of your posts over the last several days I am greatly disappointed that so many people place their faith in your forecasts. I for one do believe that Ex-Guston will if fact evolve into a formidable tropical cyclone and has the potential to affect multiple land masses. Your reasoning makes no sense and gives folks a false sense of security.


You know what why don't u put your money where your mouth is. What do you come up with or have to say, uh nothing, but poor mouth the good folks on this blog. At least Levi and Storm and a few others actually take there time and sit and analyze the models,SST,The highs and all that stuff to give us a ideal of what could happen, no one has written it in stone. Plus you don't have to read it, no one is making you.
sheri
1443. FLDART1
Quoting reedzonemyhero:
Levi, upon reading many of your posts over the last several days I am greatly disappointed that so many people place their faith in your forecasts. I for one do believe that Ex-Guston will if fact evolve into a formidable tropical cyclone and has the potential to affect multiple land masses. Your reasoning makes no sense and gives folks a false sense of security.
First of all as an Emergency Manager I dont "put faith" in any particular individual or agency forecast. I base decisions based upon all available data from a multitude of sources. I for one read the reasoning of those like LEVI, STORM W, Etc. And while I may not always agree with them 100% I find their reasoning to be sound and informed. In a nutshell, NO FORECAST IS SET IN STONE...First rule of EM, expect the unexpected... I appreciate the contributions made by many of those here in the WU. Most of the time I lurk in silence, I just can't stand by and watch one of these folks get bashed...