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Earl spares North Carolina, heads for New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:07 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl sideswiped North Carolina's Outer Banks early this morning, passing just 75 miles east of Cape Hatteras. Special weather statements indicate that the only road out of the barrier island chain, Highway 12, is closed. Pounding waves over 15 feet high, on top of a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet, pushed water over the highway in multiple locations. Earl's winds also piled up huge waves offshore--waves peaked at 28 feet at the Diamond Shoals buoy, and at 31 feet at a buoy 150 nm offshore of Cape Hatteras. Peak wind gusts from Earl were 74 mph at 12:30am at Oregon Inlet, and 70 mph at Nags Head and Manteo. Sustained winds of 47 mph were recorded at Oregon Inlet, but sustained winds at Cape Hatteras never reached tropical storm force--top winds there were just 36 mph, with gusts to 62 mph. Radar estimated rainfall (Figure 2) for Earl from the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina radar shows that 3 - 4 inches of rain fell across much of the Outer Banks. Overall, aside from some significant beach erosion, Earl spared North Carolina.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Earl taken at 11:29am EDT September 2, 2010, by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Earl was a Category 3 hurricane with top winds of 125 mph. The storm had a somewhat lopsided shape, due to wind shear from the southwest affecting the storm. Image credit: NASA.

Earl is now headed to the north-northeast at 18 mph. Conditions will steadily improve today over North Carolina, but deteriorate over New England. Earl's outer rain bands have now reached New York's Long Island, as seen on long range Dover radar. Satellite imagery shows that Earl is no longer the impressive hurricane it once was. The eye is no longer visible, and the hurricane appears lopsided, due upper level winds out of the southwest that are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. The latest 10:02am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that Earl continues to weaken, with a central pressure up to 961 mb. Top surface winds measured via their SFMR instrument were just 76 mph--barely Category 1 strength.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for Earl from the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina radar shows that 3 - 4 inches of rain fell across much of the Outer Banks.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear also shows no surprises. Wind shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots today, then increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada.


Figure 3. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 9:30am EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 18 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 75 kt (87 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (west) side were just 65 knots (74 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Impact of Earl on New England
The latest track forecasts still keep Earl's eye barely offshore of New England, with the center passing 20 - 60 miles southeast of Nantucket and the extreme eastern tip of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The 11am NHC intensity forecast calls for Earl to have top winds of 75 mph at 2am Saturday, when the storm is expected to be at its closest to Massachusetts. Earl will be moving northeastward near 25 mph at that time, meaning that we will see a large difference in the winds between the weak and strong sides of this fast-moving hurricane. This difference is likely to be about 15 - 20 mph, based on the wind distribution around Earl's eye seen so far this morning. Winds analyzed on the experimental H*Wind product put out by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division at 9:30am this morning (Figure 3) showed that the winds on the weak left side of the storm were about 15 mph less than the winds in the powerful right front quadrant. Assuming Earl maintains this structure for the next day, we can expect the hurricane will have top winds of 75 mph on its strong southeast side over water when it whips by Southeast Massachusetts early Saturday morning, and winds of 55 - 60 mph in its northwest eyewall, closest to Massachusetts. If Cape Cod and Nantucket barely miss Earl's northwest eyewall, as currently forecast, top winds in those locations might only reach 45 - 50 mph. The latest NHC wind probability forecast from 11am this morning gives Nantucket a 12% chance of receiving sustained hurricane force winds of 74+ mph, and Hyannis on Cape Cod a 3% chance.

The highest storm surge from Earl is likely to be on the south side of Cape Cod Bay, due to the northeast winds that will be piling up water in the bay. NHC is giving a 10% chance that a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet will occur in Cape Cod Bay, but it is more likely that the surge will be 2 - 3 feet. The extreme western portion of Long Island Sound at New York City could see a storm surge bringing water levels 1 - 2 feet above ground level.


Figure 4. NHC is giving a 10% chance that the storm surge will reach heights of 3 - 5 feet in southern Cape Cod Bay. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Impact of Earl on Canada
Winds will begin to rise on the southwest coast of Nova Scotia late Friday night and early Saturday morning. By late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 55 - 60 mph winds. Earl will be moving at a very rapid 25 - 30 mph when it arrives in Canada, and regions on the right side of the eye can expect winds 15 - 20 mph greater than on the left side, due to the fast forward motion of the hurricane. Earl's impact is likely to be less than 2008's Hurricane Kyle, the last hurricane to hit Nova Scotia. Kyle hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 15% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, and 3% in Halifax.

Fiona
There is not much to Tropical Storm Fiona, which satellite loops show to be a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and be able to destroy the storm by Saturday.


Figure 5. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains (left) and the latest tropical wave to move off of Africa (right).

Gaston may regenerate
Tropical storm Gaston lost its battle with dry air yesterday, degenerating into a disorganized low pressure area. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a broad surface circulation again, and a few heavy thunderstorms have begun to appear. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days, so it is possible Gaston could regenerate. The large amount of dry air surrounding Gaston's remains seen on water vapor satellite loops will continue to be a major impediment to development. NHC is giving Gaston a 40% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday. I'd put these odds a little higher, at 60%. The GFS model develops Gaston and predicts it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and Canadian models also indicate Gaston will re-develop, but move the storm slower and show it near the northern Lesser Antilles seven days from now.

New tropical wave
A large tropical off the coast of Africa is moving westward at about 10 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Wind shear is currently too high, 20 - 30 knots, for the wave to develop. However, once the wave reaches a point a few hundred miles from the Cape Verdes Islands two days from now, wind shear will drop and development will be more likely.

Next post
I'll have an update late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Earl meets Surf City Pier
Earl meets Surf City Pier
First of pics ( I have taken 400 today) going to go back tonight.
Hurricane Earl's Swells Reach The Rhode Island Coast@ Newport # 11
Hurricane Earl's Swells Reach The Rhode Island Coast@ Newport # 11

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. beell
Quoting seflagamma:


Beel, so that is what is happening.
Thanks! I did not know.


YW, gamma. It is an unusual 1,000 mile long feature.
502. TDogg
So I was having a little fun with Orcasystem's alibi page. What do you folks think of this one:

I blew my forecast because the stratospheric orographic discontinuity was miscalculated or overlooked.

Since I don't know when to leave well enough alone, I'll complete the paragraph with my own take:

This in turn, made my xylophobic hologram of the gravitational effect of the moon and Venus on the track of Earl completely useless. In short, the flux capacitor broke.

Weather comment: It's nice in Charleston today!


You know, invest 95 off the coast of Mexico has a LOT more rotation evident on visible than it did on infrared.

Wow, I didn't realize it was that far along, and on visible it's pretty large scale rotation at that!!

Could be a significant rain maker and maybe TS strength for Mexico soon.
Gaston as of 17:45z

SAB: 1.0
TAFB: 1.5
Few other notes on Earl: TWC with Brian Norcross is great. Easy explanations of what is occurring, actually defining what type of damage and weather to expect given the different scenarios. Wonder how that flies with Jim Cantore?

During one of his spots yesterday he talked about how the hurricanes spread out in diameter as they go further, taking advantage of the extra spin as they move closer to the poles. This was a new fact to me, and made a lot of sense.

Also stated that expansion of the windshield is part of what brings the intensity down as it moves northward (together with colder waters etc)

Quoting beell:


YW, gamma. It is an unusual 1,000 mile long feature.


Yes, thanks for that explanation. Looks like the Alien bursting out that guy's chest. Very strange. lol
#502, TDogg......Are you bored? ROFL!
Looking at PSU ewall, the remnants of Gaston develope on the GFS model and track westward and then turns quickly north over Puerto Rico. Now I know this is nearly 10 days out and anything could happen but I cant see any weaknesses in the ridge at that point of turning. Again I know its still pretty far out there and the ridge seems very strong but I guess reliability that far out goes out the window?
512. A4Guy
Quoting zoomiami:
Few other notes on Earl: TWC with Brian Norcross is great. Easy explanations of what is occurring, actually defining what type of damage and weather to expect given the different scenarios. Wonder how that flies with Jim Cantore?

During one of his spots yesterday he talked about how the hurricanes spread out in diameter as they go further, taking advantage of the extra spin as the move closer to the poles. This was a new fact to me, and made a lot of sense.

Also stated that expansion of the windshield is part of what brings the intensity down as it moves northward (together with colder waters etc)



I live in SoFla...and I miss Bryan Norcross terribly. I am glad he is on TWC now!
With some of those 99L models, we have the rare opportunity to call someone a Morocco-caster.
Quoting StormW:
99L
LMAO
LOL, I don't understand what's the reasoning behind that.
Drakeon-

Is ex Gaston gonna hook back to the west after making that forecast turn to the north at or near the antilles? Is the high going to build back in?
I think Gaston is trying to re-organize about a degree or so higher in latitude than we have been thinking.

This is going to make him unlikely to get into the carribean unless he takes a serious southerly wobble.

Most of the convection, including half of the new "core" is already above 15N...
Quoting zoomiami:
Few other notes on Earl: TWC with Brian Norcross is great. Easy explanations of what is occurring, actually defining what type of damage and weather to expect given the different scenarios. Wonder how that flies with Jim Cantore?

During one of his spots yesterday he talked about how the hurricanes spread out in diameter as they go further, taking advantage of the extra spin as they move closer to the poles. This was a new fact to me, and made a lot of sense.

Also stated that expansion of the windshield is part of what brings the intensity down as it moves northward (together with colder waters etc)



Getting Brian Norcross on TWC has brought them back some "weather cred" ... I have no idea how a "not so good now but use to be" weather station could get someone like Brian Norcross to joing them for tropical updates. They had become such a joke over the past few years.

Like you, I'me from SE Fla and while I was in Broward instead of Dade, I was up all night with Brian during Andrew.. that was incredible..
Probably the first hurricane that was really covered on TV thru out the entire storm even after the power went off...with the anchors in the "safe room" at the studio on a generator...

he saved a lot of lives that night and calmed a lot of people down. A night I will never forget.
514:

on that one, I'm not sure either.

maybe there is a weakness up there that I don't see, but to me, the ridging in place should push him west the same as everything else.
99L, pressure down 1mb, winds remain at 30mph:

AL, 99, 2010090318, , BEST, 0, 149N, 191W, 25, 1006, DB,

Same goes for ex-Gaston. Pressure down 1mb and winds remain at 30mph.

AL, 09, 2010090318, , BEST, 0, 149N, 419W, 25, 1008, LO,
521. A4Guy
Quoting StormW:
99L
LMAO


Why "LMAO" Storm - do you think that 99L will track westward?
On the potential ridging pattern from NCEP's discussion yesterday afternoon:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
102 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

FARTHER EAST...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS TO ENVELOP THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AND THROUGH 36 HRS IT IS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS CUBA TO THE YUCATAN/GULF OF MEXICO.LATER IN THE CYCLE IT WILL BECOME NARROW AND ELONGATED...AS IT WILL ERODE UNDER PRESSURE FROM AN AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER
NORTH AMERICA. THE CORRESPONDING MID LEVEL RIDGE FOLLOWS A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...AMPLIFYING ACROSS CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO
THEN BEGINNING TO WEAKEN UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. AS THE AXIS AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS/CUBA...A MID LEVEL CAP WILL ESTABLISH...WHICH WILL BECOME PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
CUBA BY 48-72 HRS.

IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A TUTT IS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES BY 30-36 HRS...WITH A CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW TO THEN FORM NEAR 20N 60W THROUGH 42-48 HRS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRESS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY 60-72 HRS...TO MEANDER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO/NORTH OF VENEZUELA.
Quoting A4Guy:


I live in SoFla...and I miss Bryan Norcross terribly. I am glad he is on TWC now!


I still remember hiding in the bathroom the night of hurricane Andrew listening to Brian Norcross. It would have been so much worse to be sitting there just wondering what was happening, it was scary enough as it was. During the worst of the storm, we could actually feel the concrete foundation vibrating (we were sitting on the floor in a small bathroom)

im surprised no one called 99L a fish yet
525. IKE
Latest ECMWF through Sept. 13th...Link
Quoting A4Guy:


Why "LMAO" Storm - do you think that 99L will track westward?


What LMAO stands for???
527. beell
Quoting StormW:
99L
LMAO


Yeah, I sure don't get that one, Storm.
Quoting aimetti:
im surprised no one called 99L a fish yet


shhhhhh...
Quoting seflagamma:


Getting Brian Norcross on TWC has brought them back some "weather cred" ... I have no idea how a "not so good now but use to be" weather station could get someone like Brian Norcross to joing them for tropical updates. They had become such a joke over the past few years.

Like you, I've from SE Fla and while I was in Broward instead of Dade, I was up all night with Brian during Andrew.. that was incredible..
Probably the first hurricane that was really covered on TV thru out the entire storm even after the power went off...with the anchors in the "safe room" at the studio on a generator...

he saved a lot of lives that night and calmed a lot of people down. A night I will never forget.


Hey Gamma: I wondered the same thing. If you google Brian Norcross you will see that he has been involved all this time with the weather, just at an administrative level, with some live appearances. I thought one of two things, either they offered him a large sum of money, or he was anxious to be more in the middle of things, with so much hurricane activity going on.
I dunno if I'm doing this right... lol... but (hopefully) here are a couple of shots of the obligatory "gas station canopy collapse" after Hurricane Earl.



ecmwf at 72 hrs shows two lows in the gom
Great great waves today!!!

Earl really really came through. Light NE winds provided perfect conditions. It really doesnt get any better then that on Long Island!!!

I am expecting top winds sustained 25 gusts to 40 here and maybe some heavy rain, it looks like a toss up whether the large rain shield get this far west. We have had a couple showers so far but that's it.
529, That is exactly what I thought.
They had to offer him a great amount of money just to do the hurricane updates when systems are threatening(because he is not there when there are not systems out there)..

or he was ready to get back in front of the camera again.. and again, they paid him a great deal of money to be in front of "their" cameras instead of someone else's cameras..
they really needed him...

Yes he had done a lot of documentaries and wrote books and talks at seminars, etc...
but been really missing him on TV when we have a disaster on the way.
If something can manage to get into the carib and stay south of Cuba, we're in for a treat!

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential:



26C isotherm reaches well below 125m in places... Lots of soup to stir up!!



530:

Man that thing was poorly made. completely collapse in just peak wind gust of just 62mph. That's just pathetic construction.
Quoting aimetti:
im surprised no one called 99L a fish yet


I wonder if right now there is someone on a Mauritanian weather blog proclaiming that 99L is looking to rapidly intensify into an Annular Category 5 hurricane and is gonna hit Nouakchott!!!
538. IKE
Models on Gaston...Link
#530. great pictures.

Yes, funny, but true. after every wind storm you can always find the gas station awnings torn down!
Quoting ROBTX09:
ecmwf at 72 hrs shows two lows in the gom
Yeah I just noticed that too. The GFS is also on board on developing a tropical cyclone in the BOC in the next 3 days. It appears to me that it is 95E what is being developed by these models. I guess that it will begin northward motion and end up in the BOC.
Quoting IKE:
Latest ECMWF through Sept. 13th...Link


The model doesnt show a break or weakness in the ridge past 120 hrs...even on this model thats gotta be some kind of indicator that Gaston could move more west. Im doubting that northward turn at the end of the model run but again its really really out there time wise.
Quoting aimetti:
im surprised no one called 99L a fish yet

Jason will be here later guaranteeing 100% fish
Quoting RecordSeason:
530:

Man that thing was poorly made. completely collapse in just peak wind gust of just 62mph. That's just pathetic construction.


Looks like they hired the same firm to build that as the Dallas Cowboys practice facility.

Quoting ROBTX09:
ecmwf at 72 hrs shows two lows in the gom
It's hard to see, but I think one of the lows is in the pacific as it is now.
I remember Andrew too. I lived in Aventura and we were asked to evacuate and we went to Kendall and it ended up doing damage there and nothing big where we lived.
darn im in my wrong account hold on lol
Quoting Drakoen:
Models forecast for the TUTT cell northeast of the Lesser Antilles to advect westward over the Greater Antilles and for upper level ridge to build in from the Tropical Atlantic as Ex-Gaston heads westward or west-northwestward.



I know Drakoen it's like beating a dead horse with some on here.
Quoting IKE:
Models on Gaston...Link


I dont get it...why a northward turn with no weakness or trof? All models showing a strong ridge across the ATL?
549. TDogg
Quoting seflagamma:
#502, TDogg......Are you bored? ROFL!


Exactly right. When a tropical system is out there, I'm like Wally in Dilbert...they can FORGET about getting work out of me. It's the Friday before a holiday weekend and somebody in their infinite wisdom left ME in charge. Of course, upper management got their weekend started early this afternoon. Oh well, one hour to go!
540:

Possibly some model support for that.

Two of the models Dr. Masters posted on here have 95 moving very far north, but staying on shore.


It would be too much of a stretch to see it wobble east of there if it intensifies or becomes larger than expected.

Plus the "cone" that wouldnormally ecompass the models is off by 1/3 of storms, so you'd generally expect 1/6 of storms to go east of the track.

So there you have it, about a 15% chance of 95E getting in BOC, IMO...
I would watch for 95L to sneak into the GOM from the Pacific. Did I just say that.
Wow, another typhoon headed for north korea. This one is a slow mover too.

Quoting OBXNCWEATHER:
I dunno if I'm doing this right... lol... but (hopefully) here are a couple of shots of the obligatory "gas station canopy collapse" after Hurricane Earl.



And Oz told the cop he was in a safe spot. Anyone check underneath see if he's there?
554. IKE
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


I dont get it...why a northward turn with no weakness or trof? All models showing a strong ridge across the ATL?


May have something to do with post 522.
I totally discounted the BOC because the center of my AOI is closer to or over the Pacific. Figured that would be dominate anything trying to form in the SW GOM.
Quoting Floridaweathergirl:
I remember Andrew too. I lived in Aventura and we were asked to evacuate and we went to Kendall and it ended up doing damage there and nothing big where we lived.


A lot of people evacuated TO south Dade because the storm was coming in to Broward and north Dade...and one of those last minute jogs to the south made a big difference that night...

South Dade was destroyed .... if it had come in on the original "forcast line" north Miami and Ft Lauderdale would have been destroyed...
which was much more populated and had more urban areas and businesses...

I was 50 miles to the north and will never forget that night watching my sliding glass windows pump in and out from presure and watching all those tranfusion boxes bursting in the night making that greenish blue lightening... I always thought that was lightening and in a hurricane it had that special color... I had no idea back then it was transformers exploding! LOL
Quoting kwgirl:
It's hard to see, but I think one of the lows is in the pacific as it is now.

actually theres one off the tx coast and one in the boc both near the coast
Quoting TDogg:


Exactly right. When a tropical system is out there, I'm like Wally in Dilbert...they can FORGET about getting work out of me. It's the Friday before a holiday weekend and somebody in their infinite wisdom left ME in charge. Of course, upper management got their weekend started early this afternoon. Oh well, one hour to go!


Ha! I'm like Dilbert in Dilbert...lamenting my cubical environment. At least I will be doing some field work next week.
548:

Initial conditions are different than previously expected.

He has reformed nearly a degree north of previous expected, and is also highly elongated towards the north.
Quoting tatoprweather:


What LMAO stands for???


laugh my @ss off!!!
Quoting IKE:


May have something to do with post 522.


Trough swings by lifts it nw then ridge builds back in and pushes it west. Then again could hook NE with the trough.
A few more shots from around Nags Head and mainland Dare County after the storm.

















Ouch! Check out the usually conservative LGEM on ex-Gaston. It has it as a category 3 moving right through the central Lesser Antilles...and towards the west into the Caribbean. If you can't orient yourself, here's an image with the coordinates.

AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 12, 152N, 433W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 24, 154N, 447W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 36, 153N, 466W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 48, 154N, 492W, 42, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 60, 152N, 514W, 49, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 72, 150N, 535W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 84, 149N, 558W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 96, 150N, 584W, 83, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 108, 149N, 609W, 97, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 120, 149N, 633W, 110, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Quoting TDogg:


Exactly right. When a tropical system is out there, I'm like Wally in Dilbert...they can FORGET about getting work out of me. It's the Friday before a holiday weekend and somebody in their infinite wisdom left ME in charge. Of course, upper management got their weekend started early this afternoon. Oh well, one hour to go!



LOL I understand, I'm "in charge" at work too! covering for a few other leaders who are out on vacation!
565. Relix
Quoting RecordSeason:
548:

Initial conditions are different than previously expected.

He has reformed nearly a degree north of previous expected, and is also highly elongated towards the north.


Yeah but he's not going to curve north. It's impossible. In fact that puts the NE islands at a risk. Add to that that the High should push it WSW. After that it's possible.
Quoting TDogg:


Exactly right. When a tropical system is out there, I'm like Wally in Dilbert...they can FORGET about getting work out of me. It's the Friday before a holiday weekend and somebody in their infinite wisdom left ME in charge. Of course, upper management got their weekend started early this afternoon. Oh well, one hour to go!
Been there before, LOL. Hang in there.
Google "cape cod web cam" and there are some good links to cams that could very interesting as the day progresses
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ouch! Check out the usually conservative LGEM on ex-Gaston. It has it as a category 3 moving right through the central Lesser Antilles...and towards the west into the Caribbean. If you can't orient yourself, here's an image with the coordinates.

AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 12, 152N, 433W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 24, 154N, 447W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 36, 153N, 466W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 48, 154N, 492W, 42, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 60, 152N, 514W, 49, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 72, 150N, 535W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 84, 149N, 558W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 96, 150N, 584W, 83, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 108, 149N, 609W, 97, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 120, 149N, 633W, 110, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,



LGEM has been quite bullish on Gaston.
Quoting angiest:


LGEM has been quite bullish on Gaston.
So have most of the models. Almost all of them called for Gaston to intensify and be at least a strong tropical storm by now.
Some models have shifted back west with EX Gaston. Will be interesting to see what happens with him down the road.
Some models have shifted back west with EX Gaston. Will be interesting to see what happens with him down the road.
Quoting BLee2333:
If something can manage to get into the carib and stay south of Cuba, we're in for a treat!

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential:



26C isotherm reaches well below 125m in places... Lots of soup to stir up!!




Treat or threat? Hard to get something down there and no one get a spanking.
Sorry I don't know why the double post above.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ouch! Check out the usually conservative LGEM on ex-Gaston. It has it as a category 3 moving right through the central Lesser Antilles...and towards the west into the Caribbean. If you can't orient yourself, here's an image with the coordinates.

AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 12, 152N, 433W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 24, 154N, 447W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 36, 153N, 466W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 48, 154N, 492W, 42, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 60, 152N, 514W, 49, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 72, 150N, 535W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 84, 149N, 558W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 96, 150N, 584W, 83, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 108, 149N, 609W, 97, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090318, 03, LGEM, 120, 149N, 633W, 110, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,



I was noticing this but past 120 hrs see post 522. Looks like at the end of most model runs that Gaston turns abrupt north over Puerto Rico. Now I dont want to rant because model guidance is just that...but it does look feasible at the moment.
ok, so I am confused. what is everyone's in here general consensus of where Gaston is going? does anyone think florida is in the picture?
Quoting Relix:


Yeah but he's not going to curve north. It's impossible. In fact that puts the NE islands at a risk. Add to that that the High should push it WSW. After that it's possible.
Even the NHC previously said it could be pushed wsw for a period of time. I still see him entering the Caribbean although I don't know how far west he would get once he does.
Quoting PcolaDan:
Google "cape cod web cam" and there are some good links to cams that could very interesting as the day progresses

Most of them are out of order.
Quoting kshipre1:
ok, so I am confused. what is everyone's in here general consensus of where Gaston is going? does anyone think florida is in the picture?


Antillies definitly but after that who knows as models have different solutions although IKE says no storms in gulf thru 9/19.
that is what is strange. can you or someone explain this to me? I thought the pattern change coming up was for almost recurvatures due to a building high pressure system

if anything, i would have expected Gaston to move west.

more troughs coming?
Quoting Jeff9641:
Sorry I don't know why the double post above.
.

Thought there was an echo in here... LOL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Even the NHC previously said it could be pushed wsw for a period of time. I still see him entering the Caribbean although I don't know how far west he would get once he does.
Hopefully not too far west that way he won't be able to feed off of the crazy OHC.
563:

Existing water temps easily support a cat 5 between 50W and 60W.

It's all a matter of the upper level environment as Gaston moves into that region.


if he keeps good structure and crosses 55W as a cat1 or cat2, then its going to be one hell of a storm by the time he reaches the islands. It will pretty much be another Ivan or Felix all the way through the Carribean and Gulf...
584. IKE
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


I dont get it...why a northward turn with no weakness or trof? All models showing a strong ridge across the ATL?


I found this in the 8-14 day prognostic discussion just issued....

"""8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 17 2010

FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN. THE PREDICTED LONG-WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST, AND WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS ANTICIPATE LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER ALASKA. THE WEEK 2 OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS RUN DEPICTS
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THIS SINGLE GFS RUN
FORECASTS A MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA, A WEST COAST TROUGH
DISPLACED INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE SINGLE 06Z GFS DEPICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS ONE, THOUGH THE TROUGH
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS SHIFTED EASTWARD 10-15 DEGREES
LONGITUDE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT PROG, WHICH IS
MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS SUPER-ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN, SMOOTHS OUT THIS TROUGH, WITH THE AXIS PREDICTED NEAR 60W-65W, OR ABOUT
THE SAME LONGITUDE AS NOVA SCOTIA.

SPAGHETTI MAPS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS (GFS, EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN) SHOW FAIRLY
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVER THE CONUS, INDICATING MORE
CONFIDENCE. OVER THE UPSTREAM REGION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC HOWEVER, THERE IS
VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AS IS FREQUENTLY THE CASE.

THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT PROG SHOWS A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN 60W AND 75W LONGITUDE, SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL RE-CURVATURE ZONE FOR
FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONES. WITH THIS EXPECTED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
AND THE HEIGHTENED TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC, INTERESTS IN BERMUDA
ARE ENCOURAGED TO FREQUENTLY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION."""
StormW, when do you think GASTON will be renamed a TD?

Thanks
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hopefully not too far west that way he won't be able to feed off of the crazy OHC.
Another Wilma this year!
Quoting StormW:


Speaking of this...what do you all noitce? I've noticed it most of the time with the NWS or NOAA

They quit using the word "SPURIOUS"? LOL
Quoting StormW:


Speaking of this...what do you all noitce? I've noticed it most of the time with the NWS or NOAA


Overuse of amplify.
590. P451
Quoting zoomiami:
Instead of complaining that "too" much was made of Earl, I think everyone should be thankful that worst case scenario didn't happen. But you can bet if it had, these same people would be all up in arms about "the experts" not being forceful enough.

Ten years ago, we would prepare for a storm as if it were going to hit at full strength (whatever was forecast). 9 times out of 10, it didn't happen. You put your stuff away, thanked the weather gods, and got back to work. None of this Monday morning quarterbacking, should have done this, should have done that. I blame it on the "want it right now" crowd. There are also those who find it impossible to take personal responsibility for what they do, and have made everyone else their keeper.

Moral: quit b*>* over something that didn't happen and be happy!



Good post. Unfortunately not the feeling of far too many during Earl it would seem.

Many of us talked as much as five days ago that Earl could go further west than the models and threaten Hatteras and then SE Mass and then Nova Scotia while delivering some heavy rain and wind inbetween those locations.

He seemed weaker than I expected for the locations he has so far passed. Not really upset about that sans wanting to get under that outer main rain shield for a spell here in NJ (just so dry).

Earl still has a few places left to visit however.

He's not a bust. He's done just about what many here expected him to do so far.

I don't get the problems that many have had with the storm?

Certainly led to a lot of the use of the [-] feature for me the past few days.
Below are the 12z GFS ensembles at 132 hours. Notice Gaston in the eastern Caribbean, but check out the spread out subtropical ridge across the entire subtropical Atlantic. I assume that this guy is headed west.

Quoting seflagamma:


I was 50 miles to the north and will never forget that night watching my sliding glass windows pump in and out from presure and watching all those tranfusion boxes bursting in the night making that greenish blue lightening... I always thought that was lightening and in a hurricane it had that special color... I had no idea back then it was transformers exploding! LOL
I know from other sources that lightning has and does occur in hurricanes, but I've never witnessed it. This despite the fact I've been in the eye multiple times at night.
Quoting StormW:


Speaking of this...what do you all noitce? I've noticed it most of the time with the NWS or NOAA


Not sure what you mean but these particular discussions are very detailed and actually "walk" you through what the models are forecasting with very specific details while NHC-NOAA discussions are more brief...Of course, NHC/NOAA have their hands full during H-Season and a more public consumption product while these folks (the International Desk at NCEP) can focus on the Caribean issues for this particular product........?
Why do they use "..." instead of commas?
I guess both! Threat AND treat!

What does OHC mean? This time I checked Storm's list of acronyms before asking! ;)
Quoting P451:


:)


In the past I didn't want to put people on ignore but rather decide not to reply. Then once I singled out a few obvious purposeful instigators I put them on. Recently I've grown more towards putting others on. It just makes the experience here better. I think I'm up to 20 names but I bet 15 are permanently banned anyways... so maybe about 5 regulars are on my "if I dont see em I cant argue with them and get all ticked off" list.



and those "5" regulars are probably the same person with various email addresses.
Quoting BLee2333:
I guess both! Threat AND treat!

What does OHC mean? This time I checked Storm's list of acronyms before asking! ;)
Ocean heat content.
Quoting StormW:


No...most of the agencies are GFS happy...as in it's ALWAYS gospel

EMCWF on the left says no recurvature...GFS on right shows the break in the ridge.



I was looking for something like that but somehow missed it.

FWIW, NWS HGX typically leans more Euro and NAM, though they respect GFS.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Below are the 12z GFS ensembles at 132 hours. Notice Gaston in the eastern Caribbean, but check out the spread out subtropical ridge across the entire subtropical Atlantic. I assume that this guy is headed west.



It's at 160 hours that a trough sets up off of New England. This maybe tough to forecast at the 160 time frame. After that though w to wnw steering flow sets up.
Quoting StormW:


No...most of the agencies are GFS happy...as in it's ALWAYS gospel

12Z
EMCWF on the left says no recurvature...GFS on right shows the break in the ridge.



But, I think they did use some form of amplify three times in one sentence, and that is just bad!
Quoting StormW:


Speaking of this...what do you all noitce? I've noticed it most of the time with the NWS or NOAA


Ok I am going with C global warming
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ocean heat content.


True. Or... Over Hyped Cyclone , depending on the context.
e.g.
Bonnie, a 40 mph TS was an OHC that didn't do much despite being in an area of a lot of OHC.

Sorry, couldn't resist.
Quoting RecordSeason:
563:

Existing water temps easily support a cat 5 between 50W and 60W.

It's all a matter of the upper level environment as Gaston moves into that region.


if he keeps good structure and crosses 55W as a cat1 or cat2, then its going to be one hell of a storm by the time he reaches the islands. It will pretty much be another Ivan or Felix all the way through the Carribean and Gulf...


Pure speculation.
TD to cat 5 developement in NW Caribbean could happen over a 36 time frame given the heat content.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
I know from other sources that lightning has and does occur in hurricanes, but I've never witnessed it. This despite the fact I've been in the eye multiple times at night.
Hurricane Earl is as large as the low associated with the trough...


Just a little information, and not saying that it means anything in the longer term... but, On this day in 1999, Melbourne, Florida had a record high temperature of 95 degrees. Less than 2 weeks later, we, in Central Florida, were looking into the eye of Hurricane Floyd as it drew nearer as a monster Category 4 (which caused the largest peacetime evacuation in US history). It turned north and hit NC. Lo and behold, today's high temperature (so far) in Melbourne, Florida has been 95 degrees and we have an entity that was named Gaston located in the same general area as "Floyd" back then. Strange the coincidence. Hmmm???? Just sayin'. Hopefully this is another case where history does not repeat itself.
Quoting Jeff9641:
TD to cat 5 developement in NW Caribbean could happen over a 36 time frame given the heat content.


The sky is falling! Grab the women and children! We are all DOOMED!!
605:

Um, no...


that is model support and Dr. Kerry Emanuel's intensity map support.


Cat1 or Cat2 between 55W and 60W is not at all out of the question, as several models were even saying cat 3 yesterday morning...
Quoting Jeff9641:
TD to cat 5 developement in NW Caribbean could happen over a 36 time frame given the heat content.
The Caribbean is like a champagne bottle with the cork in to tight.
Quoting pilotguy1:


Pure speculation.


AKA "Forecasting"
Hmmmm...something on page 12 keeps my phishing filter from loading it.
Quoting hydrus:
Hurricane Earl is as large as the low associated with the trough...
But thank God for the trough. I know I chewed my knuckles bloody waiting for it to show up.
Good Afternoon!
Quoting pilotguy1:


The sky is falling! Grab the women and children! We are all DOOMED!!


Potential is there. Opal ring a bell. That was in the gulf in 1995.
Quoting StormW:


No...most of the agencies are GFS happy...as in it's ALWAYS gospel

12Z
EMCWF on the left says no recurvature...GFS on right shows the break in the ridge.


Well thats gotta have some ECMWF fans torn between fish and non fish
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
I know from other sources that lightning has and does occur in hurricanes, but I've never witnessed it. This despite the fact I've been in the eye multiple times at night.


I've only been "in the eye" of two storms,
Irene and Wilma...and both were very evident of being in the EYE, especially Wilma...

All the others went below me above me around me, or side swipped me and been affected but only two time had the eye over my head..

Irene was only a Cat 1 but did bring so much rain and knocked out power.. in 7" of water in garage in the dark trying to put motor equipment up higher out of the water...
When the large eye came thru is was so calm and even some stars were out for a while..

Wilma was something else... tree blew over across the drive way as front end came thru.. took pic of it during eye... then after the backside came thru.. went out and the downed tree had been lifted and laid down the opposite direction..... got pic of that too!

Wilma destroyed my landscape and privacy fence and screens to patio...but house stayed secure...


I don 't remember lightening in Wilma at all and it was a "morning" storm.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Just a little information, and not saying that it means anything in the longer term... but, On this day in 1999, Melbourne, Florida had a record high temperature of 95 degrees. Less than 2 weeks later, we, in Central Florida, were looking into the eye of Hurricane Floyd as it drew nearer as a monster Category 4 (which caused the largest peacetime evacuation in US history). It turned north and hit NC. Lo and behold, today's high temperature (so far) in Melbourne, Florida has been 95 degrees and we have an entity that was named Gaston located in the same general area as "Floyd" back then. Strange the coincidence. Hmmm???? Just sayin'. Hopefully this is another case where history does not repeat itself.


truely scary
Quoting Jeff9641:
TD to cat 5 developement in NW Caribbean could happen over a 36 time frame given the heat content.
easily....example Katrina and the infamous loop current
Quoting StormW:


Speaking of this...what do you all noitce? I've noticed it most of the time with the NWS or NOAA
When did "retrogress" become a word? Guess I should have looked it up first. My bad.
LGEM is scary as I mapped this out.. Not perfect to the pixel but you get the general idea:

LOL, we need a definitive answer. I have seen (and/or used) the following acronyms for the Euro model used here: EMCWF, ECMWF, and ECWMF.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
easily....example Katrina and the infamous loop current


And Rita a few weeks later.
we will probably get a category 5 storm this month somewhere near land because of the tcph map i just looked at it and we can have that happen
Quoting angiest:


And Rita a few weeks later.


and Wilma a few weeks after Rita...

record breaking TD to Cat5 time spand... and lowest pressure to date..
Quoting Jeff9641:


Potential is there. Opal ring a bell. That was in the gulf in 1995.


I agree, but then I repeat, cows could jump over the moon, I just haven't see it yet. LOL
If I remember Opal correctly, she was a minimal hurricane nearly staitonary in the central GOM when we went to bed, and woke up to a big one heading right down our throats! Forget 36Hrs or anything!
Looks to me that Gaston is moving toward the WNW at this hour.
Quoting seflagamma:


I've only been "in the eye" of two storms,
Irene and Wilma...and both were very evident of being in the EYE, especially Wilma...

All the others went below me above me around me, or side swipped me and been affected but only two time had the eye over my head..

Irene was only a Cat 1 but did bring so much rain and knocked out power.. in 7" of water in garage in the dark trying to put motor equipment up higher out of the water...
When the large eye came thru is was so calm and even some stars were out for a while..

Wilma was something else... tree blew over across the drive way as front end came thru.. took pic of it during eye... then after the backside came thru.. went out and the downed tree had been lifted and laid down the opposite direction..... got pic of that too!

Wilma destroyed my landscape and privacy fence and screens to patio...but house stayed secure...


I don 't remember lightening in Wilma at all and it was a "morning" storm.


During Wilma I literally say a speed limit sign get thrown into the air and landed about 100 feet away. It was in one of those down drafts where you have the huge gust of like 120 mph or something it was bien loco!
Quoting hydrus:
The Caribbean is like a champagne bottle with the cork in to tight.


And rather soundly shaken
lmao norcross is amazing

"there's EFG and probably H, and by the way the computer models have the IJKL systems over africa and coming off as a train"

lmao
Quoting angiest:
LOL, we need a definitive answer. I have seen (and/or used) the following acronyms for the Euro model used here: EMCWF, ECMWF, and ECWMF.


European
Center
(for)
Medium-Range
Weather
Forecasts.

That is, ECMWF
635. TDogg
Quoting seflagamma:
#502, TDogg......Are you bored? ROFL!


Very. At work, and things are beyond slow.
Quoting TDogg:


Very. At work, and things are beyond slow.


Same here. All the managers are long gone.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST FRI SEP 3 2010

LATE NEXT
WEEK...THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON
ARE GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS. WITH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AHEAD... RESIDENTS
AND VISITOR IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.
Quoting seflagamma:


and Wilma a few weeks after Rita...

record breaking TD to Cat5 time spand... and lowest pressure to date..


Well, she didn't cross the loop current to do that, correct? ;)

j/k

I knew I left her out.
I'm still here because I'm a so called manager and all my worker bees have slipped out early for the holiday.
Link

Check this out... the upwelling that occurred with Danielle (near 60deg W) and Earl (near/along 75W) denoted by the lighter shades of gray (that are not moving). These storms are incredible works of nature!
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
easily....example Katrina and the infamous loop current


A closer and more extreme example would be Hurricane Felix.
Convections seems to be rebuilding somewhat in the center of earl?
Forget the WNW track. Building ridge will push him back down and hold him there...
It would have been much worse for S FL (and better for Mexico) had Wilma split the uprights between Mexico and Cuba.
#630 HurricaneGeek, you are in WestPalmBeach, yes, you got a good taste of Wilma also!

eye probably went over your area also as it headed NE

we were on the "edge" of the eye not smack in the center....
and when the back side started "rolling across the 'glades from the west" I had never seen anything so scary looking..
I started screaming to everyone..
"get back in your house the other side is coming!"
and it is true, the "back side" was much worse than the front side...

I'm the big chief at my work and I'[m about ready to call it a day.
Quoting angiest:


Well, she didn't cross the loop current to do that, correct? ;)

j/k

I knew I left her out.

not the one that Katrina and Rite went across in the GOM...
she hit her own "hot spot" in the NW Caribbean and exploded..
I'm stuck here for another hour, at least... Medium Chief.
Anyways, I see we have 99L. The ECMWF, GFS, CMC and the NOGAPS all develop this system and most develop another behind it.
Quoting BLee2333:
I'm stuck here for another hour, at least... Medium Chief.
im here for 1 1/2 hrs <<<< not a chief
Quoting seflagamma:
#630 HurricaneGeek, you are in WestPalmBeach, yes, you got a good taste of Wilma also!

eye probably went over your area also as it headed NE

we were on the "edge" of the eye not smack in the center....
and when the back side started "rolling across the 'glades from the west" I had never seen anything so scary looking..
I started screaming to everyone..
"get back in your house the other side is coming!"
and it is true, the "back side" was much worse than the front side...



Yes. We were in the actual EYE of the hurricane. I tell you there is nothing more surreal than that.
Remember, what made Wilma turn? That cold front. Probably against out better judgment, we went out in the eye and despite seeing dozen of trees and shingles scattered around as if a raccoon had gotten into to everything, it would have seemed like a beautiful day. It was rather chilly; especially after the storm.

So you were never in the eye eye, just the wall? Well I shouldn't say just the wall. Jajajajaja
Quoting pilotguy1:


Pure speculation.


S/He has been doing that for the past two weeks... Maybe a GutFeelingCaster
I dont work so i ammmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm the Chief until Wife gets home from work!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyways, I see we have 99L. The ECMWF, GFS, CMC and the NOGAPS all develop this system and most develop another behind it.
Hey CyberTed! Yeah, the CMC, ECMWF, and GFS (not sure about the NOGAPS) are all calling for a low pressure area to develop in the BOC within the next 72 hours. It appears to me that what they are developing is 95E currently located in the Gulf of Tehuanepec.
Quoting will40:
I dont work so i ammmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm the Chief until Wife gets home from work!
word...

(see what you can learn on a weather blog)
Quoting Floodman:


And rather soundly shaken
Hello Flood. I have not had a chance to really check(exactly) how warm the temps really are, but I am sure we have 90 degree,s spread out in some areas.
Interesting 72 hr forecast except for the fact that Gaston is already down to 1008 mbs now.

Quoting TampaTom:


S/He has been doing that for the past two weeks... Maybe a GutFeelingCaster


Ghost caster.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey CyberTed! Yeah, the CMC, ECMWF, and GFS (not sure about the NOGAPS) are all calling for a low pressure area to develop in the BOC within the 72 hours. It appears to me that what they are developing is 95E currently located in the Gulf of Tehuanepec.


'Appears' what happens is 95E some how manages to survive Mexico and develops in the Gulf.
Quoting BLee2333:
I'm stuck here for another hour, at least... Medium Chief.

Ditto that...:(
I heard TWC discussing earlier the threat for flooding in the Boston area due to a boundary setting up of very heavy rain as "Earl" moves past the Cape Cod area later. I remember the same thing occurring in Central Florida with "Wilma" in 2005. As she moved across S FL, a cold front was coming south, and the convergence between this boundary and "Wilma" set the stage for very heavy rainfall. I had 13" of rain in a few hours here. Nevermind the temperature dropped from the low 80s at 3am to the mid 50s by noon.
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Yes. We were in the actual EYE of the hurricane. I tell you there is nothing more surreal than that.
Remember, what made Wilma turn? That cold front. Probably against out better judgment, we went out in the eye and despite seeing dozen of trees and shingles scattered around as if a raccoon had gotten into to everything, it would have seemed like a beautiful day. It was rather chilly; especially after the storm.

So you were never in the eye eye, just the wall? Well I shouldn't say just the wall. Jajajajaja


no we were in the "eye" also.. we had just gone thru eye wall then it got calm and we all went outside to see the damage...but did not have a very long calm before the other side of the eye wall rolled across. and we barely made it back inside. We probably did not get even 10 mins of calm and some areas got like 20-30 mins of calm in the eye..
We probably should not have risked going out that long either but had to see what had happened.

We would not have been out walking around in the eye wall.. that is where the nasty stuff was.. That backside was rough as the wind totally fliped direction..


I think the eye was fairly large by then..I am more in NCentral Broward out by SawgrassExpress.
663. TGTTX
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Just a little information, and not saying that it means anything in the longer term... but, On this day in 1999, Melbourne, Florida had a record high temperature of 95 degrees. Less than 2 weeks later, we, in Central Florida, were looking into the eye of Hurricane Floyd as it drew nearer as a monster Category 4 (which caused the largest peacetime evacuation in US history). It turned north and hit NC. Lo and behold, today's high temperature (so far) in Melbourne, Florida has been 95 degrees and we have an entity that was named Gaston located in the same general area as "Floyd" back then. Strange the coincidence. Hmmm???? Just sayin'. Hopefully this is another case where history does not repeat itself.


That is interesting, and hopefully not to be repeated.

Minor correction, however; Floyd was the largest peacetime evacuation up to that time; since then, Rita broke that record.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR
25N92W EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 22N95W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N94W. WHILE ONLY A
WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED N-NE TO OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 84W-89W AND W OF 28N W OF
89W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...THE N GULF IS UNDER A
RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO OVER S LOUISIANA WITH A
1016 MB HIGH IN THE E GULF NEAR 28N85W. LIGHT ELY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH TODAY UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE
NE GULF WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN

GOM is tranquil. Am out here near the oil spill site and hope it continues..Long Range GFS (384 hr) is scary..lets hope it doesn't happen...
Quoting kmanislander:
Interesting 72 hr forecast except for the fact that Gaston is already down to 1008 mbs now.

Check out the BOC. We might get some cyclogenesis there in a few days from 93E. Don't get the pressure on ex-Gaston though. Like you said, it's at 1008mb now.


Yeah kinda hard to buy into the weakness of ridge but here it is...
anybody have any info on ex gaston and will it be back
Quoting TGTTX:


That is interesting, and hopefully not to be repeated.

Minor correction, however; Floyd was the largest peacetime evacuation up to that time; since then, Rita broke that record.


Right on... yeah at that time. Rita smashed that record! Unfortunately...
BTW in street speak "word to your mother" is REALLY good:)
Not weath related but what are cookies?.It says it on the front page.
Not weath related but what are cookies?.It says it on the front page.
672. myway
Quoting seflagamma:


no we were in the "eye" also.. we had just gone thru eye wall then it got calm and we all went outside to see the damage...but did not have a very long calm before the other side of the eye wall rolled across. and we barly made it back inside.
We probably should not have risked going out that long either but had to see what had happened.

We would not have been out walking around in the eye wall.. that is where the nasty stuff was..


I think the eye was fairly large by then..I am more in NCentral Broward out by SawgrassExpress.


Large Eye. Boca Raton on the north and Sunny Isles/Aventura to the south
633:

it's true though. You could see that yesterday on infrared there were 4 more waves about 2 or 3 days apart in a line on Africa...
I need to get back to work and finish some reports.. will check back later.

been fun.
675. beell
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey CyberTed! Yeah, the CMC, ECMWF, and GFS (not sure about the NOGAPS) are all calling for a low pressure area to develop in the BOC within the 72 hours. It appears to me that what they are developing is 95E currently located in the Gulf of Tehuanepec.


May be. I think it is more related to this:

Link
676. TGTTX
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Right on... yeah at that time. Rita smashed that record! Unfortunately...


Yep; don't want a repeat of that, either. With the way its setting up, though, sure seems like everything is falling into place for more history to be made.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Not weath related but what are cookies?.It says it on the front page.


Oh yes chocolate chip are awesome...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Don't know, models were taken down on Wunderground.com/tropical after Gaston dissipated. I don't understand why the front page can't keep computer models runs on the remnants of a tropical cyclone. If they show models runs for Invests, they should also do the same for the remnants of a tropical cyclone, especially if those remnants are mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook like Gaston's are.


I was thinking the same thing. Although you can watch the models on other websites, it would be nice to see the related info and models here on the WU site for degenerated storms that have a possibility of regeneration.
Quoting beell:


May be. I think it is more related to this:

Link
The weak surface trough in the BOC?
667:

At this point, I think the blog consensus is that Gaston is eventually going to come back with a vengeance somwhere between 55W and 60W...
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Flood. I have not had a chance to really check(exactly) how warm the temps really are, but I am sure we have 90 degree,s spread out in some areas.


Yep...the TCHP is rather astronomical as well
Quoting RecordSeason:
667:

At this point, I think the blog consensus is that Gaston is eventually going to come back with a vengeance somwhere between 55W and 60W...


Thank you.
Quoting seflagamma:


no we were in the "eye" also.. we had just gone thru eye wall then it got calm and we all went outside to see the damage...but did not have a very long calm before the other side of the eye wall rolled across. and we barely made it back inside. We probably did not get even 10 mins of calm and some areas got like 20-30 mins of calm in the eye..
We probably should not have risked going out that long either but had to see what had happened.

We would not have been out walking around in the eye wall.. that is where the nasty stuff was.. That backside was rough as the wind totally fliped direction..


I think the eye was fairly large by then..I am more in NCentral Broward out by SawgrassExpress.
I remember when I was a kid, and an eye passed over Key West, my Mom sent me to Royal Castle on my bike to pick up some hambergers. There was no electricity, and I remember a long line with the RC being filled up with smoke from their grill. I remember worrying that I wouldn't make it home in time before the back side hit, but I did. They used to tell us how long it would take for the eye to pass. I guess the storms move faster now?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Not weath related but what are cookies?.It says it on the front page.


From an internet standpoint, cookies are small files left onyour machine with, typically, webpage data (login, etc.).

They can be used to track your movements, however...I prefer an RFID chip administered with a rifle, but cookies are effective as well
As of 3:50 pm, Buoy 44066 is reporting sustained 36.9 kt winds out of the NNE, gusting to 46.6 kt...pressure 29.23" and seas to 14.4 ft. This buoy is located 95 NM SSW of Mauntauk, NY
Quoting myway:


Large Eye. Boca Raton on the north and Sunny Isles/Aventura to the south


I was not sure how big it was but it did cover a large portion of Broward and Palm Beach counties...as it came across...


where is everyone getting their info on X-Gaston? Wish WU would put their stuff back up on the system...
Quoting kmanislander:
Interesting 72 hr forecast except for the fact that Gaston is already down to 1008 mbs now.



Gaston is poised to become a TD/Storm agian, he's looking much better despite all the dry air he's been a battl'n, to think what he may look down the road when conditions improve will be frightening to say the least.
Wait, has gaston made his return yet??
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Oh yes chocolate chip are awesome...
No! It says it on the front page"ou haven't added any favorites,and our cookies may be disabled",and a few bloggers have said that as well.Moving on to weather Gaston is coming back,and hermain is in the making with even more storms over the continent of africa.And it looks like accuweather didn't get their dooms day east coast storm they wanted out of earl.
internet options, tools, change your security settings to enable cookies.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Wait, has gaston made his return yet??


my bad, Ex-Gaston, IMO NHC might have him up to 70-80% this evening.
Gaston looks to have started his recovery; he's already crossed 15N and he looks a bit more robust:

693. beell
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The weak surface trough in the BOC?


Upper level trough with a surface reflection. S of a frontal boundary. Shows at 500mb and 700mb also.

Either way, I bet we get a blob alert!
Quoting tkeith:
word...

(see what you can learn on a weather blog)


that is funny!!!
word to ya muthah
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma all hit the same current, called the loop current. However during the spring of 2005 a big giant loop current eddy broke off the main current and located itself over east/central GOM. Wilma later that year in October exploded rapidly over the warmest waters and deepest waters of the tropical Atlantic. Technically, the deepest waters are just north of Puerto Rico associated with the Puerto Rico trench, but the Caribbean waters are very warm and very deep. These three category five hurricanes and Emily as well all exploded over this loop current.
Gaston trying to pull a Rocky Balboa....

692:


I figure they'll have to update him back to TD by tomorrow morning.

He is going to hit an ocean heat content sweet spot around the same time he hits DMAX, so that should be all the jump starting he needs to make TD or even low TS again...
Quoting beell:


Upper level trough with a surface reflection. S of a frontal boundary. Shows at 500mb and 700mb also.

Either way, I bet we get a blob alert!
LOL, it's what we live for.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
internet options, tools, change your security settings to enable cookies.
Quoting Floodman:


From an internet standpoint, cookies are small files left onyour machine with, typically, webpage data (login, etc.).

They can be used to track your movements, however...I prefer an RFID chip administered with a rifle, but cookies are effective as well
okay thanks.Wasn't to sure.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma all hit the same current, called the loop current. However during the spring of 2005 a big giant loop current eddy broke off the main current and located itself over east/central GOM. Wilma later that year in October exploded rapidly over the warmest waters and deepest waters of the tropical Atlantic. Technically, the deepest waters are just north of Puerto Rico associated with the Puerto Rico trench, but the Caribbean waters are very warm and very deep. These three category five hurricanes and Emily as well all exploded over this loop current.


Wilma was NEVER north of Puerto Rico:

Quoting kwgirl:
I remember when I was a kid, and an eye passed over Key West, my Mom sent me to Royal Castle on my bike to pick up some hambergers. There was no electricity, and I remember a long line with the RC being filled up with smoke from their grill. I remember worrying that I wouldn't make it home in time before the back side hit, but I did. They used to tell us how long it would take for the eye to pass. I guess the storms move faster now?


WOW that would not happen today.. no store would open during the eye of a storm to grill burgers for customers... seems like "eyes" use to last longer and be larger...that was scary!
Quoting DestinJeff:


sure it was. as a cat 1 at about 40N

LMAO!!!
Quoting Floodman:


Wilma was NEVER north of Puerto Rico:

How dare you show that lol.
Quoting DestinJeff:


sure it was. as a cat 1 at about 40N


Okay, smartA$$...I meant in the area of the Puerto Rico trench...not, necessarily off the coast of New Jersey
Quoting ILwthrfan:


my bad, Ex-Gaston, IMO NHC might have him up to 70-80% this evening.


Been out since yesterday. It looked as if Gaston was going to be a Caribbean tracker but now I seen models are really trending for another turn to the north.
Hurricanes are like screws... Righty tightey, Lefty loosey. In other words, the tighter the circulation (e.g. the stronger the storm), the more it's path bends to the right. The looser the circulation (e.g. the weaker the storm), the more it stays left. In my observances anyways.
Looking like convection along with anticyclone positioned above on Gaston. May skip TD and go to TS?
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Hurricanes are like screws... Righty tightey, Lefty loosey. In other words, the tighter the circulation (e.g. the stronger the storm), the more it's path bends to the right. The looser the circulation (e.g. the weaker the storm), the more it stays left. In my observances anyways.


I don't know, Rita was pretty "tight" and she went pretty much left across the GOM...we won't even talk about Dean and Felix
Quoting Floodman:


I don't know, Rita was pretty "tight" and she went pretty much left across the GOM...we won't even talk about Dean and Felix


...In most cases anyways! LOL
thanks for that Wilma graphic.. look at that..

it went from TD/TS/Cat1 directly to Cat4 then next dot is Cat5! I remember all of us watching that in stunned amazment ...thinking after Katrina and Rita and their explosions we had seen the worse and then Wilma does this and shatters all the records .
Got some drier air to the nw of Gaston but Gaston is appearing to organize.
Quoting Floodman:
word to ya muthah
what he said lol
Quoting DestinJeff:


I was joking.


I kinda figured...
708:

Well, the rule really doesn't hold to be honest.

the 2007 cat 5s both just kept going almost due west forever.

Katrina had an ~70 to 80 mile wide eye as a 175mph hurricane, so even the eye size is sort of just not right.

I know mets tend to say stuff like that, but it really just isn't set in stone at all.
Quoting DestinJeff:


I was joking.

Yes you were and LMAO!!!
Quoting DestinJeff:
Did we ever figure out how to pronounce Gaston?
Yes. Gaston: ga-STAWN.
Are we on a jasoncoolman vacation? Where is this fella?
Quoting seflagamma:
thanks for that Wilma graphic.. look at that..

it went from TD/TS/Cat1 directly to Cat4 then next dot is Cat5! I remember all of us watching that in stunned amazment ...thinking after Katrina and Rita and their explosions we had seen the worse and then Wilma does this and shatters all the records .


She was a scary one, most especially for October 24th...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes. Gaston: ga-STAWN.


I pronounce it Gas(as in the word gas)-stone.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes. Gaston: ga-STAWN.


In that case the weather channel pronounces it wrong. They say ga-stone lol
Quoting Floodman:
Gaston looks to have started his recovery; he's already crossed 15N and he looks a bit more robust:



Yes, he is back. The track over the past 24 hrs has been a drift to the WNW in response to the trough off to the NE and weak steering.

The flow will soon bring the system back to a Westerly heading and the forecast steering actually pushes him back to the WSW around the 48 hr time frame for an entry into the Caribbean near 16 N.

Accuweather is forecasting very windy weather with 72mph gusts on thursday night in San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Quoting Felix2007:


In that case the weather channel pronounces it wrong. They say ga-stone lol
LOL, the proper pronunciation is quite complicated. At first I called it gas-tin, but then I found out it was ga-STAWN.
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes, he is back. The track over the past 24 hrs has been a drift to the WNW in response to the trough off to the NE and weak steering.

The flow will soon bring the system back to a Westerly heading and the forecast steering actually pushes him back to the WSW around the 48 hr time frame for an entry into the Caribbean near 16 N.



That's what I was thinking...fairly close to the opriginal track estimates; a little further north, certainly, but with an entry into the NE Carib...will this one run the Mona passage, do you think?
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Got some drier air to the nw of Gaston but Gaston is appearing to organize.


Is Gaston still headed to the northern islands?
732. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 031850
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC FRI SEP 3 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100903 1800 100904 0600 100904 1800 100905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 41.9W 15.4N 43.5W 15.9N 45.5W 16.1N 47.8W
BAMD 14.9N 41.9W 15.7N 43.5W 16.3N 45.4W 16.5N 47.7W
BAMM 14.9N 41.9W 15.4N 43.2W 15.8N 44.8W 15.7N 46.7W
LBAR 14.9N 41.9W 15.7N 43.3W 16.7N 45.1W 17.7N 47.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100905 1800 100906 1800 100907 1800 100908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 50.4W 15.7N 55.9W 15.1N 60.6W 15.6N 63.1W
BAMD 16.3N 50.3W 15.1N 56.4W 14.0N 62.5W 13.2N 66.5W
BAMM 15.4N 48.7W 14.1N 53.5W 13.9N 57.8W 15.7N 60.7W
LBAR 18.6N 49.9W 19.6N 55.3W 19.5N 60.6W 18.9N 65.0W
SHIP 52KTS 69KTS 83KTS 97KTS
DSHP 52KTS 69KTS 83KTS 97KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 41.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 40.6W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 39.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, the proper pronunciation is quite complicated. At first I called it gas-tin, but then I found out it was ga-STAWN.


I have a friend whose name is spelt the same way. We pronuunce it Gas-tonne. Probably the West Indian inflection LOL
734. xcool
Wish the blog could stay this way all the time, civilized, informative and sprinkled with humor.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Accuweather is forecasting very windy weather with 72mph gusts on thursday night in San Juan, Puerto Rico.


Hmmm...can you say Gaston?
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes, he is back. The track over the past 24 hrs has been a drift to the WNW in response to the trough off to the NE and weak steering.

The flow will soon bring the system back to a Westerly heading and the forecast steering actually pushes him back to the WSW around the 48 hr time frame for an entry into the Caribbean near 16 N.



So what are your thoughts on Gaston recurving or going GOM or going more of a w nw track towards Miami? I have seen models all show these possibilities with the GFS favoring a recurve.
Now I am beginning to wonder with the remnant of Gaston starting to "fire"... what the chances of us having just one day without an active named storm in the Atlantic are for the for the next couple of weeks? Well known fact is that it has been very active over the last two weeks... but, what will the next two weeks hold? I am thinking there will not be one single day in the next two weeks without an active named storm though.
Quoting kmanislander:


I have a friend whose name is spelt the same way. We pronuunce it Gas-tonne. Probably the West Indian inflection LOL


This is how I would say it.
Here's the 18z dynamical model envelope below.

I agree with the northern portion of the guidance through 46W. After that I agree with the center of the guidance through 54W. And finally I agree with the southern portion of the guidance through the end of the plots.



Quoting kmanislander:


I have a friend whose name is spelt the same way. We pronuunce it Gas-tonne. Probably the West Indian inflection LOL


Someone suggested "gu stahn" the other day...I was most unkind to him
742. Relix
Yeah 16N NE Carib entry sounds good for me, at that point and depending on strength it could move a bit more northerly so 17N is a possibility. I would say PR should receive either a direct impact or a very close brush with direct effects. There's no way to escape this one I think.
Quoting NCWatch:
Wish the blog could stay this way all the time, civilized, informative and sprinkled with humor.


This is, for the most part, how it used to be...with some exceptions. Now this is the exception, rather than the rule...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here's the 18z dynamical model envelope below.

I agree with the northern portion of the guidance through 46W. After that I agree with the center of the guideline through 54W. And finally I agree with the southern portion of the guidance through the end of the plots.



In other words maybe a slight tug across Puerto Rico then more of a west heading?
.LONG TERM...
SFC RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE BRINGING DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHCS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OTHERWISE...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL PATH OF THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON WITH SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUING TO BRING THE FEATURE
WESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK.

From latest N.O. fcst discussion...seems every body keepin an eye on G.
Flood are you being a trouble maker today?
Quoting tatoprweather:


Is Gaston still headed to the northern islands?


that's the expectation! Leewards
Quoting Relix:
Yeah 16N NE Carib entry sounds good for me, at that point and depending on strength it could move a bit more northerly so 17N is a possibility. I would say PR should receive either a direct impact or a very close brush with direct effects. There's no way to escape this one I think.


I am afraid, my friend, that you're correct...a more southerly passage would spare you the worst of the storm
Quoting Floodman:


Hmmm...can you say Gaston?
i cant speak french
I never said Wilma was north of Puerto Rico, I said the waters just north of Puerto Rico are the deepest in the Atlantic Ocean. Read it carefully next time.
Quoting Floodman:


Hmmm...can you say Gaston?


must be Gaston !!!
0z FIMZ has Gaston as a Hurricane north of Hispaniola.
210hrs (Long-Range)

Quoting ILwthrfan:


my bad, Ex-Gaston, IMO NHC might have him up to 70-80% this evening.


Too bullish with the shear he'll encounter...
It all depends where you're from, I suppose, my grandfather's middle name was Gaston, he was born in France, and pronounced it gas-taw (rhymes with law), with the n being silent.
afternoon everyone
Quoting BenBIogger:
0z FIMZ has a hurricane north of Hispaniola.
210hrs (Long-Range)

What's the link to that?
757. sotv
Big 7.4 earthquake reported in Christchurch New Zealand
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What's the link to that?


Link
Wilma was a classic example of a pure EWRC. From her peaked mature stage with a contracting eye and strengthening eyewall at peak to her 20nm+ wide eye afterwards.
Quoting NCWatch:
Wish the blog could stay this way all the time, civilized, informative and sprinkled with humor.


wishful thinking! LOL

in all the hurricane seasons here
I think this is the 6th.it started in
April 2005..
it is always a mad house when storms are out there..

but today is nice.. so much of the clutter is gone today.
In english we pronounce Gaston as gas - tonne. In french and spanish it is gahs - tone with the accent on the long o.
Highest water levels the NOS measured in the NC area from Earl peak out at 5 feet above MLLW.


Full page of coastal station wind, pressure, water level obs, etc.: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/EARL.html
(Many of these are also available at NDBC, with a different ID, but not usually the water level obs)

5 feet at Duck, NC, too, but as you can see in the plot, by the MHHW, they have a larger tidal range and 5 feet should be no problem.


(MLLW and MHHW are a way to gauge the mean level of the lowest and highest normal astronomical tides)
Quoting Floodman:


That's what I was thinking...fairly close to the opriginal track estimates; a little further north, certainly, but with an entry into the NE Carib...will this one run the Mona passage, do you think?


If you look at the steering forecast at 144 hrs it shows Gaston just underneath PR but when you look off to the NW of that position the steering flow is from the NE to the SW. If that verifies it would block any motion through the channel and force a more Westerly track through the Central Caribbean.

Of course, we know that steering regimes can change almost at a moment's notice so we will have to wait and see how this plays out.
anyone else having problems with the penn state site coming up?? I mean it is coming up but the models section isnt populating.
Here are the pronunciation for the next 2 named storms.

Hermine: her-MEEN
Igor: e-GOR

Hopefully this helps.
Gaston on the way back.
Quoting sotv:
Big 7.4 earthquake reported in Christchurch New Zealand


That is huge!!
As MH09 says, it's officially ga-STAWN. See for yourself.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here are the pronunciation for the next 2 named storms.

Hermine: her-MEEN
Igor: e-GOR

Hopefully this helps.


Hermine - Her Mean
igor- e gore

These 2 storms are gonna be bad just by the prounceation
Can I come out of the basement now ?
I've been done there for the last day wifing. I think I need a new version of Malwarebytes.
developing line of T storms moving towards earl lol


would be sad if that line develops stronger winds than earl
Quoting Floodman:


I am afraid, my friend, that you're correct...a more southerly passage would spare you the worst of the storm


Actually the NE quadrant would be real close to the island if it were to pass to the south. Depending on how far south it would be would make or break it. I think Gaston is a dangerous cyclone to deal with. Conditions look favorable with the constant exception of dry air surrounding him.
Quoting Floodman:


Someone suggested "gu stahn" the other day...I was most unkind to him
Pretty sure the "n" is just about silent, if one says it correctly...
...HURRICANE EARL REMAINS LARGE BUT IS LOSING ITS PUNCH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 71.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
...FIONA WEAKENING...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 65.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES
760 I have been a lurker for quite a while...finally joined to be able to use the ignore feature!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here are the pronunciation for the next 2 named storms.

Hermine: her-MEEN
Igor: e-GOR

Hopefully this helps.


Yes except that the h in Hermine is silent.
getting some nice cloud cover from earl in NH...waiting for the rain to start tonight.
Quoting katadman:


Yes except that the h in Hermine is silent.
No, it isn't silent. I got it from the NHC website.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Hermine - Her Mean
igor- e gore

These 2 storms are gonna be bad just by the prounceation


Well, you know what they say... "If you can't pronounce it, you don't want it!"
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here are the pronunciation for the next 2 named storms.

Hermine: her-MEEN
Igor: e-GOR

Hopefully this helps.


MH09, you are a keeper!
Thanks
Her-min-ee??

sounds tamer
TWC just said "It's like hitting a gnat with a bee bee" XD. The only time I can watch that channel is when a storm is threatening land.
Quoting katadman:


Yes except that the h in Hermine is silent.


Air mean....
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here are the pronunciation for the next 2 named storms.

Hermine: her-MEEN
Igor: e-GOR

Hopefully this helps.


Unless you're a Harry Potter fan then it's Her - MY - nee.
How's everyone? I just got out of Jail yesterday. I See we have an active season as predicted.
language and weather lessons today...

i feel so fortunate...carry on..
I have two confessions to make...

1. Although it seemed very irreverent and a bit disrespectful to very intelligent and serious weather people, Oz's broadcast last night did make me laugh.

2. Jim Cantore broke my heart when he did not wear his "googles" during the storm.

Quoting Floodman:


Wilma was NEVER north of Puerto Rico:



He was saying how Wilma was over SOME OF the deepest waters, second only to the waters north of puerto rico.
Quoting kuppenskup:
How's everyone? I just got out of Jail yesterday. I See we have an active season as predicted.



OMG, that is funny!!!
your kidding right?
Quoting CapeObserver:


Unless you're a Harry Potter fan then it's Her - MY - nee.


That would be spelled H*e*r*m*i*o*n*e...
#788! funny
The total ACE for 2010 has now exceeded 60% of average. This is more than 16 of all the seasons' total ACE percentage since 1950.

Season total ACE

01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 26.3350
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
-----------------------------------------------------
Total 60.5325
Thanks winter123. That is exactly what I was talking about. Anyone have a link to the LGEM?
What's up with Gaston? Is this looking like a South Florida Storm?
I don't know if StormW is on but for the past 3 weeks he has been talking about a major pattern change starting around labor day. The change was going to drive the storms through the Caribbean threatening Central America, GOM and the SE Coast.

Is that pattern still forming because 99L is going north and the models for ex-Gaston are trending north?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, it isn't silent. I got it from the NHC website.


I'm cool with it.
Quoting kuppenskup:
What's up with Gaston? Is this looking like a South Florida Storm?


and it begins again!
When a word begins with the letter H in French, the H is almost always silent, for example, heures (hours) is pronounced eur.
Quoting seflagamma:


and it begins again!


Afternoon all

Great to see you gamma ;))
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Just a little information, and not saying that it means anything in the longer term... but, On this day in 1999, Melbourne, Florida had a record high temperature of 95 degrees. Less than 2 weeks later, we, in Central Florida, were looking into the eye of Hurricane Floyd as it drew nearer as a monster Category 4 (which caused the largest peacetime evacuation in US history). It turned north and hit NC. Lo and behold, today's high temperature (so far) in Melbourne, Florida has been 95 degrees and we have an entity that was named Gaston located in the same general area as "Floyd" back then. Strange the coincidence. Hmmm???? Just sayin'. Hopefully this is another case where history does not repeat itself.


Just an update to this earlier post I made... Record High temperature set at Melbourne, Florida today (through 4pm)... the high temperature was 97 degrees! Breaks the 1999 record. At least the humidity was not too bad today as the dewpoint was down to 64 today (Thanks Earl!!!)
deleting dup.. sorry about that!
Quoting seflagamma:


and it begins again!


I dont know what that means, this is the first website Ive gone to in over a week but if Im missing something please let me know. I was just asking if Gaston was going to be a threat to South Florida or is it too early to say?
Quoting StormJunkie:


Afternoon all

Great to see you gamma ;))


Hi SJ!

Good to see you and your handsome little boy!

things are peaceful right now here.

will wonders never cease!
Quoting kuppenskup:
What's up with Gaston? Is this looking like a South Florida Storm?
No. There is no way of knowing at this point, but chances are at this point that it enters into the Caribbean. Whether it treks across it or recurves similar to what the GFS shows is all speculation at this point.
806. myway
Quoting seflagamma:


and it begins again!


Some people just cant help themselves. Problem is that all floridians wind up taking the hit for a few that like to read their own postings.
Quoting seflagamma:


Hi SJ!

Good to see you and your handsome little boy!

things are peaceful right now here.

will wonders never cease!


If we can just make it another couple months then we are good to go!
803, just teasing... from earlier conversations...

it is really too early to tell; they do not even have X-Gaston up again as a storm.
Quoting kuppenskup:


I dont know what that means, this is the first website Ive gone to in over a week but if Im missing something please let me know. I was just asking if Gaston was going to be a threat to South Florida or is it too early to say?


It is still too early to say, but legitimate question nonetheless. Probably about 4 or 5 days from the Lesser Antilles... so reasonably a solid 8-10 days from any U.S., if any
My friends last name is Gaston,and we pronounce it like we see it.She doesn't mind.
What's with the pronunciation lesson we are all typing here you'll.
Quoting jrweatherman:
I don't know if StormW is on but for the past 3 weeks he has been talking about a major pattern change starting around labor day. The change was going to drive the storms through the Caribbean threatening Central America, GOM and the SE Coast.

Is that pattern still forming because 99L is going north and the models for ex-Gaston are trending north?


If you read Storm's blog he does not specifically speak of a pattern change but does say that if Gaston regenerates he could enter the Caribbean (but does not say where it will go once it enters the Caribbean).
Quoting seflagamma:
803, just teasing... from earlier conversations...

it is really too early to tell; they do not even have X-Gaston up again as a storm.

Is ex Gaston a TD again?
Stormjunkie, Flood, Atmo and others... Good to see every one. I've been lurking instead of posting this season and wanted to say "hi". But things are going to be interesting the next few weeks, huh?
Gaston...

Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Flood are you being a trouble maker today?


Me? I hadn't thought so, but you're the second person to make mention of something like that...I must be, huh?

How does that work? One in three of you is a smart ass...look to your left and right...if it isn't them, it's likely you!
Unintentional double post...
Quoting washingtonian115:
My friends last name is Gaston,and we pronounce it like we see it.She doesn't mind.


for real? how cool is that... a possible storm named after you.

back in 2005, we had a TS Gamma and I was so afraid it was going to turn into a horrible hurricane like they all seemed to do that year! and my grandchildren would be so confused!
Quoting myway:


Some people just cant help themselves. Problem is that all floridians wind up taking the hit for a few that like to read their own postings.


Damn Floridians and there hype-casting, only hang around when a storm is headed their way, attitudes...

I'm just kidding myway ;) This was a topic of conversation last night...Many friends in Fla, and many on here who are from Fla...good peeps!
Quoting myway:


Some people just cant help themselves. Problem is that all floridians wind up taking the hit for a few that like to read their own postings.


No the problem is there are just a lot of people on the site who like to judge others and think their you know what dont stink. I just asked one question because with all the models I didnt know if there were any taking Gaston here. But what do I get? I get Sarcastic people who like to judge. Go ahead and judge, Go ahead and think you know it all. Youre the one who likes to read your own postings. If you dont have an answer to a question keep it to yourself and let people who know answer.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Stormjunkie, Flood, Atmo and others... Good to see every one. I've been lurking instead of posting this season and wanted to say "hi". But things are going to be interesting the next few weeks, huh?


It would look taht way, ma'am...LOL
Quoting Floodman:


Me? I hadn't thought so, but you're the second person to make mention of something like that...I must be, huh?

How does that work? One in three of you is a smart ass...look to your left and right...if it isn't them, it's likely you!


Funny. Good to see you! You keeping busy?
Quoting gordydunnot:
What's with the pronunciation lesson we are all typing here you'll.
i believe thats pronounced y'all

hehe srry couldn't help it
Quoting StormJunkie:


If we can just make it another couple months then we are good to go!


Hey, man, what's up?
Your thoughts on this:

A 2010 report correlates low sunspot activity with high cyclonic activity. Fewer sunspots appear to decrease temperature in the upper atmosphere, creating unstable conditions that help create cyclones. Analyzing historical data, there had been a 25% chance of at least one hurricane striking the continental US during a peak sunspot year; a 64% chance during a low sunspot year.

I believe the lull in TCs we had earlier this season correlated with the two solar storms we experienced. I would have to check the dates, but interesting none the less...
Quoting seflagamma:


for real? how cool is that... a possible storm named after you.

back in 2005, we had a TS Gamma and I was so afraid it was going to turn into a horrible hurricane like they all seemed to do that year! and my grandchildren would be so confused!


Hey Gamma,

Wilma was the Last Hurricane to Hit South Florida

5 Years ago.

On Average a Hurricane Strikes South Florida ever 4 years.

We are Over Due.
How pleasant is this? Enjoying a civil conversation with some of the better bloggers on WU, the coolest weather we've had in San Antonio since early May and listening to the Beatles.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Is ex Gaston a TD again?


not that I know of...

but they all think it will come back again..
NEW BLOG
I think tonight may be interesting with Gaston.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Hey Gamma,

Wilma was the Last Hurricane to Hit South Florida

5 Years ago.

On Average a Hurricane Strikes South Florida ever 4 years.

We are Over Due.


I know that is scary stuff! Don't want to hear it! During 2004/2005 the state got hit like 8 times! LOL We had our "fair share" for awhile... jmo!
New blog....And I didn't even realize there was a new blog when I posted in it...lmao

1st post is for you DL :)
Is that really kuppenskup?
Quoting CapeObserver:


Unless you're a Harry Potter fan then it's Her - MY - nee.

And if you're a Mel Brooks fan, the other name is "Eye-gore" ;o)
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Just an update to this earlier post I made... Record High temperature set at Melbourne, Florida today (through 4pm)... the high temperature was 97 degrees! Breaks the 1999 record. At least the humidity was not too bad today as the dewpoint was down to 64 today (Thanks Earl!!!)



Actually, I was watching the news yesterday in West Palm and the locals stated this has been the hottest summer on record for South East Florida. Not necessarily the daytime highs but the nighttime lows.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here are the pronunciation for the next 2 named storms.

Hermine: her-MEEN
Igor: e-GOR

Hopefully this helps.


Hermine ---not too keen
Igor--------A total bore

Hey, at least I didn't use the "F" word!
If you need help pronouncing Gaston may I recommend watching this video. I also recommend coming up with replacement lyrics to sing along with extolling the virtues of this named system if it regenerates.

Link
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Hey Gamma,

Wilma was the Last Hurricane to Hit South Florida

5 Years ago.

On Average a Hurricane Strikes South Florida ever 4 years.

We are Over Due.


That was a backdoor S.E. Florida hurricane.... I beleive we are WAY past due for a major cane coming out the the east. The last was Andrew, 18 years ago...
842. flsky
I hate to belabor this, but can't "they" fix this jumping-around of the satellite images? Why is this happening? Are we lacking a satellite, or what? I guess it's a minor point, but it makes observing these images difficult thru most of the day.
Base on satellite images,seems like Gaston is re-generating.Some forecast models indicates that Gaston will enter Caribbean area next week like a hurricane.People in the Eastern Caribbean and Puerto Rico need to follow the progress of this one closely.
845. Halyn
kuppenskup:



*Poof*
Test
Quoting IKE:


And it was only 75 miles east of Cape Hatteras.

Just goes to show if you can get at least 100 miles from the center(preferably west of), you'll be okay.

I went about 100 miles east of where Opal made landfall and the winds were 30-40 mph.
I can run far enough away from a hurricane.


I realize that you were basing this comment on the inaccurate information posted by the blogs author, but it is no less incorrect.

Many locations along the Eastern-most Outer banks did receive TS sustained winds with wind gusts in the 80-90 mph range. You can visit the Morehead City/Newport NC NWS page to find some of these reports of the peak winds I am referring to.