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Earl poised to rapidly intensify ; now pounding northern Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:16 AM GMT on August 30, 2010

It's time to make final preparations and get ready to ride out the storm if you live in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight, as Hurricane Earl is on your doorstep. Earl continues to intensify steadily, though not explosively. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 972 mb at 7:38 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 13 mb in ten hours. As is usually the case, it takes six or so hours for a hurricane's winds to respond to a major pressure change, and Earl's winds are now beginning to ramp up. Top flight level winds at 10,000 feet seen by the Air Force were 106 mph. Using the usual rule of thumb that the surface winds are 90% of the 10,000 foot flight level winds gives one surface winds of 97 mph, which is right at the border of Cat 1/ Cat 2 strength. Top winds seen at the surface by the Air Force's SFMR instrument were lower, 78 mph, but a NOAA research P-3 in the storm recently saw surface winds of 88 mph. I expect that the Air Force will be measuring Cat 2 surface winds before their mission is over tonight. Martinique radar shows that Earl has a large, 35 mile wide eye. Earl initially formed a smaller eye, but this collapsed almost immediately, and the larger diameter eyewall took over--kind of an instant eyewall replacement cycle right as the eye initially formed, something I don't recall ever seeing before. The latest eye report from 7:38 pm EDT showed that the temperature difference from outside the eye to inside the eye had increased from 3°C to 8°C in just 1 1/2 hours. This is a huge spike in temperature, and indicates that Earl may be on the verge of a period of more rapid deepening, which will likely carry it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Monday night. Recent satellite imagery shows the storm is lopsided, with much more intense thunderstorm activity on the southern side. This is due to 10 knots of wind shear from strong northerly upper level winds, courtesy of the outflow from Hurricane Danielle. This shear has steadily decreased today, and will continue to decrease tonight and Monday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 8:45 pm AST. Image credit: Meteo France.

Track forecast for Earl
Latest radar animations out of Martinique and St. Maarten show that the eye of Earl is on track to pass just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. Since the eye is so wide, it appears that portions of the southern eyewall will pass over these islands. The southern eyewall is where the NOAA aircraft just measured 88 mph winds, so Barbuda could well see sustained winds of 90 mph for a period of up to two hours, since the storm is moving near 14 mph and has a 35-mile wide eye. Since Earl will probably start intensifying rapidly in the next few hours, Anguilla, the last island in the path of Earl's southern eyewall, could see sustained winds near 95 - 105 mph between 7am - 9am AST. These are worst-case scenarios, and hopefully Earl's southern eyewall will barely miss these islands, bringing winds just below hurricane force.

The latest set of model runs (18Z, 2pm EDT) show Earl shooting the gap between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast over the next five days, and none of the models take Earl ashore over the U.S. North Carolina is now outside the cone of uncertainty. Recall that the average error in a 5-day track forecast is about 300 miles, so it is still too early to be confident Earl will miss the U.S. The most likely landfall location, were Earl to hit the U.S., would be Cape Cod, Massachusetts. A more likely landfall location appears to be Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, but it is too early to say which province is most at risk.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
St. Maarten radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
St. Maarten weather history for August 29
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (now back up!)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

I'll have a full update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. DVG
Quoting IKE:
He's moving just north of west. Put the COC on radar...right at the bottom of your browser and watch as it moves.


I see as you do on the radar, but look at the jsl sat loop. Hit stop on the 3rd to last box, then forward the last two boxes. Movment is to the sw.

Not saying a course change, just an observation.
Quoting TampaTom:
Here's an oldie but a baddie...



Hurricane Hugo... check out the interaction it had with Puerto Rico...


Cat 5 in New York... It's going to happen. Earl likes the big apple.
nash the nhc is going to eat 500 miles i can almost guarantee that especially if it waits to make that turn at 67west..then sou fla has some major problems..on a straight nw cours that would put earl in the northern bahamas and put him at 30n and 79west
Earl is becoming a monster, small eye means big trouble!
Remember Ivan's famous stall south of Jamaica? Followed by significant west shift in track..

I remember it very well. That was the stall and west shift that saved us here in Tampa.
2006. BVI
Quoting JupiterFL:


Good luck and stay safe.


Thanks, we are all boarded up and prepared! Good luck to everyone else in the path.
Quoting CATMAN5:
Does anyone know if the error in the NHC projected 5-day cones varies with the latitude of the current position of a system? In other words is reliability the same bet. 10N-20N as it is when storm has moved into the 35N-45N zone? Thanks.


That is an interesting question. I don't know if anyone could answer that without extensive research. The answers are endless, I guess.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Ok so you live in the middle peninsula correct?


No wait u live in the lower peninsulia, north of the naval bases.
Quoting tropicfreak:


10-20% chance that I here in Richmond VA will see TS force winds. Eastern VA (norfolk, Chesapeake) has a 20-30% chance of seeing these TS force winds, and VA Beach and the OBX have a 30-40% chance of seeing these winds. Cape Hatteras has the highest chance, up to 50%.


After living thru "K" you have to keep your eyes wide-open . Look at "K"s forcasted positions,from Friday 0500 advisory thru 1100pm advisory the western edge of the cone moved about 150-200 nm. You can't count on models except for about 36 hrs!!
You can take all of stuff on here with a grain of salt, check every few hours and see what the few logical, trained, level head bloggers have to say. I come mostly to "lurk" and learn.
2010. 7544
wrong most majors that get in the herbert box do affect so fla 1988. BobinTampa 9:49 AM EDT on August 30, 2010
Quoting 7544:
earl maybe building a anticyclone over the top of him most majors due ie a high that will make him hard to turn and keep hesding west i heard max mayfield say this many times could this be happening today

as we now offically have a major cat 3 in the herberts box


the Hebert Box is meaningless unless a major hits SFla. Its not a forecasting tool
Quoting MahFL:
Seems to be due West again.
i see too
959 mb just reported
Quoting FunkStorm:


Cat 5 in New York... It's going to happen. Earl likes the big apple.


?????
Anegada has about 200-250 people, it seems. They're in for a rough ride.

Anguilla and St Martin/Sint Maarten still right under it.
Our weather down is going down hill fast
Time: 13:42:00Z
Coordinates: 18.6N 63.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,802 meters (~ 9,193 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 958.8 mb (~ 28.31 inHg)
I think this blog needs to go to the eye doctor...

Post 2000 seeing a northward job

Post 2001 seeing ssw movement
958.8 mb
(~ 28.31 inHg)
2019. IKE
Quoting BobinTampa:


the Hebert Box is meaningless unless a major hits SFla. Its not a forecasting tool.


I'm sick of the Hebert box. It is 2010, we have better forcasting than a couple of boxes an old man dreamed up. The Hebert box is no better than wishcasting.
Quoting FunkStorm:


Cat 5 in New York... It's going to happen. Earl likes the big apple.


i don't think it will be a major hurricane by the tine it hits NYC... or atleast i hope its not a major hurricane... i live by the big apple
2022. angiest
Quoting TOMSEFLA:
959 mb just reported


Crud.
Quoting katrinakat5:
nash the nhc is going to eat 500 miles i can almost guarantee that especially if it waits to make that turn at 67west..then sou fla has some major problems..on a straight nw cours that would put earl in the northern bahamas and put him at 30n and 79west


he will start to make the turn at 64
2025. Lizpr
Hmm some towns in PR are without power already I guess it's time for me to call my family.
133800 1838N 06320W 6442 03470 9570 +135 +079 068010 014 /// /// 03

957.0 mb found.
anyone have the goes 15 rapid scan link?
I love it, all indications at this point have a Nova Scotia hit, and no news has even mentioned it once. We learned so much from Juan to be prepared.
Seems like Earl is moving a tad slightly south of the NHC forecast points, follow the small eye lol.
Quoting LongGlassTube:


I'm sick of the Hebert box. It is 2010, we have better forcasting than a couple of boxes an old man dreamed up. The Hebert box is no better than wishcasting.


Hebert box = statistics.
EARL IS MOVING DUE WEST RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS THE HIGH IS GETTING STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF HIM..IT WILL DELAY THE TURN AND SOUTH FLA BETTER GET READY...PUERTO RICO IS IN THE SAME POSITION RIGHT NOW...EVERYONE SAID THE STORM WOULD PASS WAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NOW LOOK NOW IT COULD PASS 20-30 MILES TO THE NORTH AND PUT THEM IN FIERCE HURRICANE WINDS...SOMETIMES I REALLY WONDER ABOUT THE NHC...
Quoting IKE:

damn look at that eye
2033. IKE
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I think this blog needs to go to the eye doctor...

Post 2000 seeing a northward job

Post 2001 seeing ssw movement


It's moving WNW.

Just look at the radar....

2034. angiest
Quoting DVG:


I see as you do on the radar, but look at the jsl sat loop. Hit stop on the 3rd to last box, then forward the last two boxes. Movment is to the sw.

Not saying a course change, just an observation.


Haven't seen a WSW jog on radar, but by the same token the eye is still a very long way away, outside of good range.

And of course there is the issue of syncing radar and satellite.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
133800 1838N 06320W 6442 03470 9570 +135 +079 068010 014 /// /// 03

957.0 mb found.


Crap... that's getting low...
Quoting TampaTom:


Crap... that's getting low...


How LOW can you go.
bbl.
Time: 13:42:00Z
Coordinates: 18.6N 63.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,802 meters (~ 9,193 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 958.8 mb (~ 28.31 inHg)

959mb drop 4mb from last read
2039. SeaMule
as he builds his anti-cyclonic high over the top of him, the resultant strength of that high pressure will "block" the effects of the break in the ridge. After about six more hours of watching this traverse on a dangerous wwnw heading, it will become apparent to the NHC that it is now time to eat crow...and admit that this thing is heading to the US mainland.

it could hit Florida....and even get in the GOM
Living on the coast in Nags Head is tough right now. Not sure if this storm does make landfall that we will be ready. Anyone know when they will have a better grasp on what Earl is going to do? How long will we have to actually prepare? Two small children and pets make leaving on the fly a nightmare.
2041. angiest
Quoting hurricaneman123:


i don't think it will be a major hurricane by the tine it hits NYC... or atleast i hope its not a major hurricane... i live by the big apple


Difficult but not impossible. A lot would depend on how fast he is moving (think 1938).
Quoting katrinakat5:
EARL IS MOVING DUE WEST RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS THE HIGH IS GETTING STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF HIM..IT WILL DELAY THE TURN AND SOUTH FLA BETTER GET READY...PUERTO RICO IS IN THE SAME POSITION RIGHT NOW...EVERYONE SAID THE STORM WOULD PASS WAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NOW LOOK NOW IT COULD PASS 20-30 MILES TO THE NORTH AND PUT THEM IN FIERCE HURRICANE WINDS...SOMETIMES I REALLY WONDER ABOUT THE NHC...


FOCUS Kat FOCUS, turn off the Caps.
Quoting TampaTom:


Crap... that's getting low...


pshhh, Alex was lower and look at what category he was at lol.
Movement has been WNW for a while now. I dunno why it is so hard to some of you to figure out?
Radar is usually a better indication of movement than satellite.
2046. bird72
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I think this blog needs to go to the eye doctor...

Post 2000 seeing a northward job

Post 2001 seeing ssw movement

See this is heading west....
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
2047. IKE
Quoting Claudette1234:
Time: 13:42:00Z
Coordinates: 18.6N 63.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,802 meters (~ 9,193 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 958.8 mb (~ 28.31 inHg)

959mb drop 4mb from last read


If that's the COC, then it's moved another .1N.
2048. hydrus
Quoting TampaTom:
Here's an oldie but a baddie...



Hurricane Hugo... check out the interaction it had with Puerto Rico...
Oldie....You are killin me tom...But you are right, Hugo was BAD.
Quoting katrinakat5:
EARL IS MOVING DUE WEST RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS THE HIGH IS GETTING STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF HIM..IT WILL DELAY THE TURN AND SOUTH FLA BETTER GET READY...PUERTO RICO IS IN THE SAME POSITION RIGHT NOW...EVERYONE SAID THE STORM WOULD PASS WAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NOW LOOK NOW IT COULD PASS 20-30 MILES TO THE NORTH AND PUT THEM IN FIERCE HURRICANE WINDS...SOMETIMES I REALLY WONDER ABOUT THE NHC...


They've been wrong every step of the way. Earl will be in the GOM. The east coast will not see Earl unless it cuts through FL from the west side.
Looks like a stall
2051. IKE
Quoting ElConando:
Movement has been WNW for a while now. I dunno why it is so hard to some of you to figure out?


+1.
2052. ssmate
Quoting FLdewey:

Some people on here need more than a pill... they need a Westcasters vaccine. I think it's covered under bloggers insurance.
It's not. Worse yet it's still under patent.
Well... Gusty winds, hard rain, thunder, and the power is out here in eastern Puerto Rico.
Stay safe!
Quoting FunkStorm:


How LOW can you go.


The record is 882... Wilma in 2005...

But at 957 mb, we're talking about Roxanne in 1995 or Carol in 1954....
Looks like they are starting to get some pretty rough squalls come through Fajardo. Glad I'm not at the Conquistador this week.
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?res=4km&chnl=vis&domain=crb&period=720&incr=30&rr=900 &banner=uhmet&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off

West?


look at that amazingly well defined eye
SEAMULE IF IT WAITS ANOTHER 8 HOURS TO MAKE THE TURN SOU FLA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE IN THER LINE OF FIRE..
The long-range San Juan radar* loop clearly shows a NNW--or even NW--trajectory for the past 45 minutes. Now, that may be just a wobble...but regardless, there is most definitely no southerly component to Earl's path at this particular moment. (And, yes, that may change.)

* - Radar, when available, is a far more reliable indicator of TC position than satellite imagery.
Quoting hydrus:
Oldie....You are killin me tom...But you are right, Hugo was BAD.


Hey, I was a college sophomore at the University of Maryland... everyone was talking about that sucker coming up the Chesapeake...
Quoting katrinakat5:
EARL IS MOVING DUE WEST RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS THE HIGH IS GETTING STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF HIM..IT WILL DELAY THE TURN AND SOUTH FLA BETTER GET READY...PUERTO RICO IS IN THE SAME POSITION RIGHT NOW...EVERYONE SAID THE STORM WOULD PASS WAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NOW LOOK NOW IT COULD PASS 20-30 MILES TO THE NORTH AND PUT THEM IN FIERCE HURRICANE WINDS...SOMETIMES I REALLY WONDER ABOUT THE NHC...


Earl is NOT moving due west. It is heading 285 or WNW.
Ya can't hang on every single jog, ya gotta average them out over several hours to get it's true motion. It not a tough concept.
does anyone know just what will pull earl north? I'm no expert or even very knowledgeable, but i don't really see anything to pull earl north as forecasted. if you know can you please post link so i can see or elaborate with a sat. image? thanks in advance
Quoting obxnagshead:
Living on the coast in Nags Head is tough right now. Not sure if this storm does make landfall that we will be ready. Anyone know when they will have a better grasp on what Earl is going to do? How long will we have to actually prepare? Two small children and pets make leaving on the fly a nightmare.


So, leave now and be safe.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Earl is NOT moving due west. It is heading 285 or WNW.


285 is between West and WNW
Quoting ElConando:
Movement has been WNW for a while now. I dunno why it is so hard to some of you to figure out?


Half of them do it on purpose....
2067. 7544
convection expanding to the south and earls moving still west look the the south of earl
2068. bird72
Earl looks like is heading west.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Here we can see how the hurrican northwest outer bands get flatter due to the high coming from US.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satpix/carb_wv_loop.php
Quoting nash28:
Guys... Let's take a pill here:-)

Earl is NOT going anywhere near FL. Earl is slowing down because he is reaching the SW flank of the ridge. Once he hits it, he will begin to make the turn. Now, is that turn gonna happen later than the NHC has stated? Probably. But not so far off that the NHC is gonnna eat the forecast by 500 miles.



Mornin Nash.
Betting against the TPC is usually a loser I know it.
In this case so far however they are off by 400 miles from the very 1st advisory forecast position Some other poster pointed out earlier. ( I forget who, sorry) The correction has been way to the left...I don't think it going to Florida but it may scrape Hatteras and/or points north.
Quoting barotropic:


well I was 38 miles north of Andrews (cat 5) eyewall and barely had hurr force gusts. I think they are going to be ok.


Hurricane Andrew was a very tight compact storm - Earl is a large storm, no comparisons at all.
2071. hydrus
Quoting TerraNova:
Radar is usually a better indication of movement than satellite.
Si senor....It looks like two more islands will be hit pretty hard then Earl moves away from the Antilles....Then some people roll fatties and assess the damage...



Significant southerly flow (WATER VAPOR LOOP) from the high pressure north of Earl. I am still believing this system will go considerably closer to the east coast before the CONUS trough, hopefully, emerges towards the seaboard and lifts it northwards.
Quoting 7544:
wrong most majors that get in the herbert box do affect so fla 1988. BobinTampa 9:49 AM EDT on August 30, 2010
Quoting 7544:
earl maybe building a anticyclone over the top of him most majors due ie a high that will make him hard to turn and keep hesding west i heard max mayfield say this many times could this be happening today

as we now offically have a major cat 3 in the herberts box


the Hebert Box is meaningless unless a major hits SFla. Its not a forecasting tool


wrong. Most majors that have hit S Fla have traveled thru the boxes. It's not a predictor of where storms will go. It's a predictor of where they came from. There is a big difference.
2074. angiest
Quoting Hurricanes101:


285 is between West and WNW


The NHC seems to consider that good enough to be called WNW, though.
Quoting TOMSEFLA:
anyone have the goes 15 rapid scan link?


Don't have one for GOES-15, but here is one for GOES East.
Link
2076. FLdewey
Quoting ssmate:
It's not. Worse yet it's still under patent.

Those drug companies always keep the good drugs close to the vest!
2077. SeaMule
earl is heading wwnw. however....the NHC won'd use that cause people wouldn't understand it.

pucker up US...you got another Andrew or Katrina heading your way!
Quoting katrinakat5:
SEAMULE IF IT WAITS ANOTHER 8 HOURS TO MAKE THE TURN SOU FLA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE IN THER LINE OF FIRE..


keep wishing, but it isn't going to happen,
another doomcaster
From Anguilla**
9:40 AM - Monday
Just walked out on front (east) deck, stuck my head around corner and was literally blown over. Saw my kyack flying across the yard. No poles down, lots of cable tv wires. Caught a quick glimpse of the sea between Cap Juluca/Altamer – roughest I’ve seen. Probably get worse with south wind. Raining harder but now no rain gauge – except for wind speed/rain, others work. Laptop battery dead, running modem/laptop off battery pack – see how long it holds. – Stay safe - Steve"
Per NHC call Earl at 960 mb, and 105 kt winds. That's all I have so far.
2082. IKE
Quoting hydrus:
Si senor....It looks like two more islands will be hit pretty hard then Earl moves away from the Antilles....Then some people roll fatties and assess the damage...


LOL!
HH just flew over Anguilla and SMRF shows hurricane force winds there
Quoting Neapolitan:
The long-range San Juan radar* loop clearly shows a NNW--or even NW--trajectory for the past 45 minutes. Now, that may be just a wobble...but regardless, there is most definitely no southerly component to Earl's path at this particular moment. (And, yes, that may change.)

* - Radar, when available, is a far more reliable indicator of TC position than satellite imagery.
can you post the link please? thanks in advance
Weather channel reports Earl is a Cat 2 storm at 9:02 am. I thought it had gone to a Cat 3?
2087. Prgal
Quoting benirica:
Well... Gusty winds, hard rain, thunder, and the power is out here in eastern Puerto Rico.
Stay safe!


You too stay safe!
2088. CJ5
You guys are going to go crazy if you keep hanging on a loop or two of sat/radar. Earl is moving WNW.
Quoting AWeatherLover:
Per NHC call Earl at 960 mb, and 105 kt winds. That's all I have so far.


Conference call?
960mb (28.35 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 27.2°C (81.0°F)


960mb like a major CAT3
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 13:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2010
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 13:42:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°36'N 63°20'W (18.6N 63.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 31 miles (50 km) between the NW and NNW (326°) from The Valley, Anguilla.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,763m (9,065ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 90kts (~ 103.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (321°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 46° at 95kts (From the NE at ~ 109.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 960mb (28.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 111kts (~ 127.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:02:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NNW (329°) from the flight level center
No doubt never heard a word about a stall.That's why I liked it when that had politically incorrect names, as they have a hard time making up their minds and can go off in what ever direction they want to.
2094. markot
look at the satt. loops its going west not wnw thnxxxx.
Blog eating my posts again...

Earl is becoming a formidable hurricane. Based on hi-res visible satellite, radar from ST. Martin and Puerto Rico, and Recon data Earl is moving at about 280 degrees or just north of due west.



PUERTO RICO THE NHC HAD EARL GOING 60-100 MILES NORTH OF YOU I WONDER WHAT HAPPEN LMAO NHC I WONDER ABOUT YOU GUYS..
HH's found flight level winds of around 90mph over Anquilla.
2099. IKE
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°36'N 63°20'W (18.6N 63.3333W)

Quoting bird72:
Earl looks like is heading west.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Here we can see how the hurrican northwest outer bands get flatter due to the high coming from US.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satpix/carb_wv_loop.php


long term Earl is moving wnw.....you have to smooth out the wobbles. My guess is Puerto Rico will likely escape Hurricane force winds. Some brief gusts could occur in squalls and thats why the TPC did not issue a Warning. Warnings also have serious economical effect and are avoided unless absolutely required. It looks like Earl is on track for the next forecast point.....or just south of it.
Quoting SkulDouggery:
Weather channel reports Earl is a Cat 2 storm at 9:02 am. I thought it had gone to a Cat 3?



The weather channel is retarted


Officially it is still a Cat2. Next advisory should upgrade it.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Conference call?

Yes.
Quoting DestinJeff:
I think Earl is getting his curve on now...

Link




yep
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Conference call?


"INTERNAL" COORDINATION ON THE HURRICANE HOTLINE
The hotline is a closed-circuit telephone system connecting the TPC with other National Weather Service (NWS) national centers, NWS forecast offices, NWS river forecast centers, and several Department of Defense installations. This coordination call is made for every Atlantic advisory at two hours after the start of the advisory cycle.

This coordination serves several purposes. First and foremost, it gives the other offices advanced notice of the contents of the upcoming advisory. This gives them time to create their own forecast and warning products, many of which are usually issued at about the same time as the advisory. Second, it is when the watches and warnings are coordinated between TPC and the local forecast offices. Third, other NWS national centers may have useful input on the forecast track, intensity, wind radii, rainfall, and tornadoes to provide during the call.


Link
Quick question from a newbie. If Earl keeps slowing and 97L is able to catch up, generally what would happen? Would they compete for energy? Would the two become one and get stronger? I really don't know so i would appreciate an opinion. TIA
Quoting katrinakat5:
IKE THATS A DUE WEST MOVEMENT GEE CAN'T YOU GUYS SEE THAT..


Get your head out of your umm I mean the clouds.. look at the data... on the NHC track



Quoting katrinakat5:
IKE THATS A DUE WEST MOVEMENT GEE CAN'T YOU GUYS SEE THAT..


Your eyes must be crossed.
2110. IKE
Quoting katrinakat5:
IKE THATS A DUE WEST MOVEMENT GEE CAN'T YOU GUYS SEE THAT..


So at 7am CDST it was a 18.4N. Now it's at 18.6N.

Is that due west? Yes or No?
2111. angiest
Quoting Claudette1234:
960mb (28.35 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 27.2°C (81.0°F)


960mb like a major CAT3


But higher than cat 2 Ike and cat 2 Alex.
Earl looks like Alex, but the difference is... It's not even close to a direct landfall.
2113. hydrus
Quoting TampaTom:


Hey, I was a college sophomore at the University of Maryland... everyone was talking about that sucker coming up the Chesapeake...
I was a surveyor in S.W.Florida when Hugo hit the Carolina,s(where,s Presslord?;)...I remember Dan Rather reporting the damage in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Island, and I will always remember this one dude saying"everything is destroyed".
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Quoting SkulDouggery:
Weather channel reports Earl is a Cat 2 storm at 9:02 am. I thought it had gone to a Cat 3?



The weather channel is retarted


Officially it is still a Cat2. Next advisory should upgrade it.


Exactly... by the time the next advisory comes up Earl will be well on its way to becoming a CAT 4... looks like we might see a CAT 5 monster tomorrow
Quoting sarahjola:
can you post the link please? thanks in advance


San Juan radar long range loop
2116. FLdewey
Quoting SkulDouggery:
Weather channel reports Earl is a Cat 2 storm at 9:02 am. I thought it had gone to a Cat 3?

110mph is cat 2.
2117. bassis
Quoting katrinakat5:
IKE THATS A DUE WEST MOVEMENT GEE CAN'T YOU GUYS SEE THAT..


Enough with the CAPS
2118. Drakoen
Very impressive hurricane:

2119. angiest
Quoting CJ5:
You guys are going to go crazy if you keep hanging on a loop or two of sat/radar. Earl is moving WNW.


Over the open ocean that is correct. But near land, each wobble can have major implications.
2121. DVG
Quoting TerraNova:
Radar is usually a better indication of movement than satellite.


Well, it's certainly more real time. But it was a simple observation. I drew no conclusions. If my eyes deceived me, so be it.
I still see a sw movement on the last two frames of the jsl.

If someone tells me that's wrong, then it's wrong.

If the jsl does indeed show as I say, it is far more interesting in discussing/learning why than being dismissive.
2122. IKE
Quoting katrinakat5:
WELL IKE HOW FAR WEST DID IT GO 2 DEGREES NORTH AND HOW MANY DEG WEST


Did it go due west? Yes or No?
2067:

To the south there is a patch of 31C water and a larger ring of 30C water. The overall environment there is conducive for a "maximum potential intensity" of 165kts...therefore the storm is drawing in a tremendous amount of energy from that region as it is a "Sweet spot" and is actually the area with the greatest potential to do work at the moment...well, that and back to the east where it was yesterday...

There is a really, really sweet spot in the bahamas right now, which certainly agrees with climatology for this week and next..


In the next 12 to 24 hours, the storm should start to get completely over a consistent "category 5 potential" zone...and the area north of Puerto Rico is a 150kts zone, which agrees with the model intensity guidance which are consistently putting it in the 120 to 150kts intensity range (Dean, Felix, Rita,) within the next day.

Now these are just models, but more than one ensemble member is calling for strong 4/weak 5 range storm. The member that calls for 150 kts takes the storm back to cat 5 a few days later.
4 mb drop between the 2 vortex messages over a span of 1 hour and 46 minutes.
2126. FLdewey
Quoting IKE:


Did it go due west? Yes or No?

Ike... what are you doing man?
Quoting hydrus:
I was a surveyor in S.W.Florida when Hugo hit the Carolina,s(where,s Presslord?;)...I remember Dan Rather reporting the damage in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Island, and I will always remember this one dude saying"everything is destroyed".


Wasn't that Bad. Only a Cat 4. Walk in the Park.
2128. Lizpr
Just called my parents they live in Caguas (that's like 25 minutes south of San Juan) and they told me they power is already out. I hope nothing else happen because I think people really didn't prepare for this.
Twins?



On a side note. 97L continue to build convection.

Iike you are only telling me it went 2 degrees to the n how far west did it go you saying it didnt move any further west since then..
2133. Drakoen
Imo based on water vapor imagery Earl won't make the turn until he is near the lower islands of the Bahamas. I think watches maybe warning will go up for them later today.

also she is not named yet is closing in on Earl, dry air between the two is diminishing. Curious to see what their interaction will be.
2135. Bayside
Quoting tropicfreak:


Ok so you live in the middle peninsula correct?

Actually, the penninsula just on the other side of the York River, where Newport News and Hampton are. Middle Penninsula it from Glouchester (York River) up to the Rappahannock. If this thing get close to us, I sure hope that the timing of max surge is with low tide!

If you look at the interaction from last novembers Nor'easter, the peak surge (circled in red), which is said to have been greater than Isabels missed high tide by a couple of hours and therefore the water level was just under what it was for Isabel. Peak surge at the same time as high tide would be horrible!
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 13:42:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18%uFFFD36'N 63%uFFFD20'W (18.6N 63.3333W) (View map)


A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 11:56:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18%uFFFD31'N 63%uFFFD00'W (18.5167N 63.W) (View map)

0.1N, 0.3W, 1hr 46min time difference
Allow me to share my high-tech method of CoC tracking via radar:

1) Find a nice, steady radar site (this one works well for Earl right now).

2) Stop the animation at the first, earliest frame.

3) Take a dry erase marker (note: do not use a permanent marker, such as a Sharpie; doing so will ruin your screen. You've been warned) and place a small dot or circle directly in the CoC.

4) Restart the animation, and be sure the "AutoUpdate" feature is on.

5) Sit back and laugh at all the wrong-casters.
2138. IKE
Listen katrinakat5....peoples lives are on the line here.

Is it going due west...yes or no?

Quoting FLdewey:

Ike... what are you doing man?


Getting ready to hopefully make a buck.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
On a side note. 97L continue to build convection.



We should see 08L here soon, most likely @ 11am
Quick question on 97L...

Being a weaker system, could this be the storm in the western Carribean that some of the models were hinting at last weak?
Quoting clwstmchasr:
On a side note. 97L continue to build convection.



On the verge now.
271 degrees is not due west.
Quoting BobinTampa:


wrong. Most majors that have hit S Fla have traveled thru the boxes. It's not a predictor of where storms will go. It's a predictor of where they came from. There is a big difference.


Hebert Box is more like a tool to use in hindsight, right? Good thing hindsight is 20/20
blocking ridge?

2145. DVG
The last new jsl frame does go nw. FWIW
2146. FLdewey
Quoting IKE:
Listen katrinakat5....peoples lives are on the line here.

Is it going due west...yes or no?



Getting ready to hopefully make a buck.

LMAO!

Just ;-)
Quoting reedzone:
Earl looks like Alex, but the difference is... It's not even close to a direct landfall.


Unless you happen to live in Nova Scotia.
2148. breald
Quoting bassis:


Enough with the CAPS


Why do you guysquote the people who make dumb statements but never answer the people with valid concerns or questions?
ike accodring to sat and wv yes its going due west ..it has been for the last few hours ...does that answer your question...puerto rico is in line for hurricane force winds..NHC really blew this..
Quoting Orcasystems:


Get your head out of your umm I mean the clouds.. look at the data... on the NHC track



Sure it is because NHC gets to change their track every 6 hours LOL
Folks are getting a little carried away at the moment on the westward issues when the storm is just wobbling a bit, as it intensifies, and should start moving more to the NW towards the break in the ridge to the North caused by Danielle over the next 12-24 hours; the good thing is that it is currently moving away from land and we can just see what happens by tonight. To my eyes, it has slowed down a little bit and probably feeling the weakness in the ridge; I will vote for the turn within the next 12 hours.
Based on the current movement Earl will be likely to pas nearly 100 miles north of puerto rico..............


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41
MPH...67 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR.
My short term motion for the next 24-48 hours.

Photobucket
Quoting ElConando:


On the verge now.


Meanwhile, in the Central Atlantic...

2155. TDogg
Don't remind me of Hugo. If that bad boy came in at Edisto Beach instead of straight up Charleston Harbor, my wife (then fiancee) would have been dead, and I would have been in deep, deep trouble.
Drakeon never seen the Fujiwara effect in the Atlantic should be interesting. Seems like 97L maybe getting pushed south already.
Quoting katrinakat5:
ike accodring to sat and wv yes its going due west ..it has been for the last few hours ...does that answer your question...puerto rico is in line for hurricane force winds..NHC really blew this..


Yup, your crossed eyed. It's going WNW. Look at the Lat/Longs. The NHC blew it. That's funny.
Quoting reedzone:
My short term motion for the next 24-48 hours.

Photobucket


unless you are a very smart hurricane, i believe that's Earl's motion and your forecast.
2159. IKE
Quoting katrinakat5:
ike accodring to sat and wv yes its going due west ..it has been for the last few hours ...does that answer your question...puerto rico is in line for hurricane force winds..NHC really blew this..


You should be a politician.

***white flag waved***
Quoting BradentonBrew:
271 degrees is not due west.


270 is due west, not much of a difference
2161. Drakoen
System is south of the forecast points.
2162. bird72
Puerto Rico radar.....Link
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Folks are getting a little carried away at the moment on the westward issues when the storm is just wobbling a bit, as it intensifies, and should start moving more to the NW towards the break in the ridge to the North caused by Danielle over the next 12-24 hours; the good thing is that it is currently moving away from land and we can just see what happens by tonight. To my eyes, it has slowed down a little bit and probably feeling the weakness in the ridge; I will vote for the turn within the next 12 hours.


a bit of wobble for the four million people living in puerto rico is the only thing separating tropical storm winds from hurricane ones. believe me we watch wobbles. i am very keenly interested in wobbles. this is not a toddler were talking about so these are not baby steps either.
2165. Ryuujin
arguing with Ike and the wishcasters is pointless. Earl will have no impact no matter how close it actually gets to PR, or how shallow the WNW movement has been. Somehow it'll miss everyone and have no impact at all...
Drakeon, You skipping class to track Earl:)
Quoting breald:


Why do you guysquote the people who make dumb statements but never answer the people with valid concerns or questions?



That's a stupid question. ;) j/k.
2169. Drakoen
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Drakeon, You skipping class to track Earl:)


No, my class doesn't start until 12:20pm today
Quoting Drakoen:
System is south of the forecast points.


Dont tell Ike that, he is on the warpath, LOL

*wink* IKE
2171. wjdow
Quoting katrinakat5:
Iike you are only telling me it went 2 degrees to the n how far west did it go you saying it didnt move any further west since then..


you said it went due west, and you were wrong. at least stop using caps, would you? that seems like a fair punishment
Quoting Fujiwara:


Hebert Box is more like a tool to use in hindsight, right? Good thing hindsight is 20/20


It's kinda like saying all the storms that hit Louisiana passed through the GOM. But you can't say that all the storms that passed through the GOM hit Louisiana.

The Hebert box is useless.
Quoting Ryuujin:
arguing with Ike and the wishcasters is pointless. Earl will have no impact no matter how close it actually gets to PR, or how shallow the WNW movement has been. Somehow it'll miss everyone and have no impact at all...


That's very wrong, its a hurricane, anything can happen, when your that close to a eye.
Quoting Ryuujin:
arguing with Ike and the wishcasters is pointless. Earl will have no impact no matter how close it actually gets to PR, or how shallow the WNW movement has been. Somehow it'll miss everyone and have no impact at all...


tell that to the people who have already lost power

you do realize that Earl has expnaded his windfield right?
well weatherwannabe if earl waits to make his turn in 12 hours south fla is definitely in play and the northern bahamas..this high to the n of earl is getting stronger earl continues to grow stronger..the stronger earl gets and the larger it becomes the harder it is for earl to make a sharp turn...NHC needs to start to issue a hurricane watch for rhe southern and central bahama islands..earl will be a monster no doubt in my mind earl gets to cat 5...
Quoting Lizpr:
Just called my parents they live in Caguas (that's like 25 minutes south of San Juan) and they told me they power is already out. I hope nothing else happen because I think people really didn't prepare for this.



I believe it, those squalls around Earl look extremely vigorous, their are numerous cloud tops to 50,000 ft +!
Quoting katrinakat5:
if earl would turn right now that would place him on a NW movement at 30.0 77.0...earl would be a definite threat to s carolina and n carlina as a cat 4 hurricane...the later earl makes the turn to the nw south fla could come into play...if earl gets to 19n 68 west and strats to make the turn then south fla and the northern bahamas are in play and is in danger...stay tuned for later info ill be on this all day...


It Earl waits longer then Galveston could be in play.

You have no idea how it comforts me that you'll be on this all day.

Thank You! (HUGS and KISSES)
Quoting serialteg:


a bit of wobble for the four million people living in puerto rico is the only thing separating tropical storm winds from hurricane ones. believe me we watch wobbles. i am very keenly interested in wobbles. this is not a toddler were talking about so these are not baby steps either.


I hear you and agree.....I was referring to the longer-term issues but any wobble near land does make a huge difference and I have been e-mailing freinds in PR since yesterday morning on your exact issue.....Waiting to hear back from them later today on how they are doing.
Quoting katrinakat5:
well weatherwannabe if earl waits to make his turn in 12 hours south fla is definitely in play and the northern bahamas..this high to the n of earl is getting stronger earl continues to grow stronger..the stronger earl gets and the larger it becomes the harder it is for earl to make a sharp turn...NHC needs to start to issue a hurricane watch for rhe southern and central bahama islands..earl will be a monster no doubt in my mind earl gets to cat 5...


The stronger the storm becomes the more it will turn. You got it backwards.
2180. Ryuujin
Quoting Hurricanes101:


tell that to the people who have already lost power

you do realize that Earl has expnaded his windfield right?
. Sarcasm is on, btw Hurricane...
2181. WxLogic
Good Morning...
2182. bird72
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Folks are getting a little carried away at the moment on the westward issues when the storm is just wobbling a bit, as it intensifies, and should start moving more to the NW towards the break in the ridge to the North caused by Danielle over the next 12-24 hours; the good thing is that it is currently moving away from land and we can just see what happens by tonight. To my eyes, it has slowed down a little bit and probably feeling the weakness in the ridge; I will vote for the turn within the next 12 hours.


Can you show us in a satellite image or maps, where is the break in the ridge?

Here I can't see any break...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satpix/carb_wv_loop.php
2183. IKE
St. Martin conditions....

Conditions at

2010.08.30 1400 UTC
Wind from the SW (230 degrees) at 39 MPH (34 KT) gusting to 59 MPH (51 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Heavy rain showers
Towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 80 F (27 C)
Relative Humidity 100%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.32 in. Hg (0993 hPa)
ob TNCM 301400Z 23034G51KT 6000 +SHRA BKN015TCU 27/27 Q0993 
Quoting katrinakat5:
well weatherwannabe if earl waits to make his turn in 12 hours south fla is definitely in play and the northern bahamas..this high to the n of earl is getting stronger earl continues to grow stronger..the stronger earl gets and the larger it becomes the harder it is for earl to make a sharp turn...NHC needs to start to issue a hurricane watch for rhe southern and central bahama islands..earl will be a monster no doubt in my mind earl gets to cat 5...

I thought the stronger a Hurricane becomes the more poleward the direction becomes?
2185. Lizpr
In PR it doesn't matter if it hits or not. Sometimes with just a little rain streets get flooded there. With just enough rain bands from that Hurricane streets can be flooded sadly to say.
Yesterday the NHC forecast track took Earl directly through 65w and 20n..he will be hard pressed to accomplish that full turn now as the weakness left by Danielle has nearly closed and the WV loop shows more than expected pressure from the high pressure ridge moving south directly to Earl's North. The North turn was always predicated on Earl breaking through that ridge, assuming that it would be a weak ridge and which would itself be pushed from the West by a low pressure trough. That trough is now dallying and not very strong itself. End result..watch and wait and wish for PR's sake that Earl finds the motivation to turn faster to the North. He will be a mean storm it appears and not one I would wish on anyone.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I hear you and agree.....I was referring to the longer-term issues but any wobble near land does make a huge difference and I have been e-mailing freinds in PR since yesterday morning on your exact issue.....Waiting to hear back from them later today on how they are doing.


us hurricane trackers, pretty much reduce oruselves to wobble trackers one the poop hits the revolving fan :)
Quoting reedzone:
My short term motion for the next 24-48 hours.

Photobucket


Nice if he will turn that fast, but still well below the HC chart of 24 hours ago. I hope PR is taking this seriously as the rains will be harsh enough there.
2190. FLdewey
Quoting wjdow:


you said it went due west, and you were wrong. at least stop using caps, would you? that seems like a fair punishment

If you're going to play with trolls at least stop quoting them.
Just want to point out that on the radar loop, it is a variable frame rate, with the first 20 frames going fast, next ten frames go "normal" and last 10 frames go slow...therefore it tricks your eyes into thinking the storm is slowing down.

in reality, it is still moving about the same speed it always has moved.
2193. WxLogic
Water Vapor Loop

Note Earl's NW quadrant getting flatten as it hits the "wall" coming down from it's N/NW. It would have to stall long enough for the High dropping south to flatten to allow to resume a WNW to NW track or basically go around it by moving W to WSW. Anything is possible with this one.
2194. hcubed
Quoting katrinakat5:
EARL IS MOVING DUE WEST RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS THE HIGH IS GETTING STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF HIM..IT WILL DELAY THE TURN AND SOUTH FLA BETTER GET READY...PUERTO RICO IS IN THE SAME POSITION RIGHT NOW...EVERYONE SAID THE STORM WOULD PASS WAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NOW LOOK NOW IT COULD PASS 20-30 MILES TO THE NORTH AND PUT THEM IN FIERCE HURRICANE WINDS...SOMETIMES I REALLY WONDER ABOUT THE NHC...


And it was only yesterday that you said Earl would be a cat 2 passing to the SOUTH of PR.

What a difference a day makes...
Quoting bird72:


Can you show us in a satellite image or maps, where is the break in the ridge?

Here I can't see any break...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satpix/carb_wv_loop.php


Don't think you can "see" the ridge on a satt loop; I'm looking at this latest map from this site but there are better NOAA charts out there:

http://english.wunderground.com/data/640x480/huratl_slp.gif
2196. Ryuujin
I was being sarcastic. Its how IKE and the wishcasters act. They seem to think that unless the eyewall goes right over a place then it has no impact. It's supremely dangerous to act like an ostrich and stubbornly refuse to even accept the fact that it may not go exactly the route that they want it to
speaking of wobbles.



not the first time i see erratic behavior out of these beasts when they hit this part of the carib.
2198. bird72
Quoting Ryuujin:
arguing with Ike and the wishcasters is pointless. Earl will have no impact no matter how close it actually gets to PR, or how shallow the WNW movement has been. Somehow it'll miss everyone and have no impact at all...


Yeah, because a hurricane is a point in the ocean, rolleyes.jpg
2199. angiest
Quoting ILwthrfan:

I thought the stronger a Hurricane becomes the more poleward the direction becomes?


On average, yes. But each system has to be treated individually. There are plenty of systems that defied that "rule."
2200. MahFL
WNW now, the eye will miss PR.
2201. dader
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Folks are getting a little carried away at the moment on the westward issues when the storm is just wobbling a bit, as it intensifies, and should start moving more to the NW towards the break in the ridge to the North caused by Danielle over the next 12-24 hours; the good thing is that it is currently moving away from land and we can just see what happens by tonight. To my eyes, it has slowed down a little bit and probably feeling the weakness in the ridge; I will vote for the turn within the next 12 hours.


Wait is the break in the ridge from Danielle. I thought it was from a trof from the low in the Maritimes area? Maybe I'm wrong.
Good Morning Everyone!

Unfortunately, all up and down the East Coast of the US people need to keep an extra close eye on Earl. My prayers go out to people in those islands currently being affected and to those in Puerto Rico that Earl tracks far enough North.
97L starting to feel the effects of earls outflow
us hurricane trackers, pretty much reduce oruselves to wobble trackers one the poop hits the revolving fan :

A few days ago half this board was yelling FISH. That argument in now over since people in the islands have trees falling on their houses now. As it gets closer the argument gets tighter.
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...



Good morning. Like to hear your assessment of Earl's potential impact on the East Coast of the U.S.
I was trying to secure a roof in the patio and just get a cut on the leg, is not serious but i bleed. Raining haaaard right now with strong gusty winds.
listen folks when a storm grows in size its much harder for a sharp turn it can make a slow gradual turnthats what im talking about...dont expect earl to make a real sharp turn he has many factors he is fighting right now with the high getting stronger to the north..this is going tobe a real hairy day..earl has got to make the turn before he gets to 65west in order to get sou fla and the bahamas out the woods..
Fajardo, Puerto Rico webcam link:

Link
2209. Bayside
Quoting DestinJeff:
Finally updated... 1200



Can someone explain this to me? I don't want to speculate and cause any alarm. Thanks,
2210. bird72
Quoting serialteg:
speaking of wobbles.



not the first time i see erratic behavior out of these beasts when they hit this part of the carib.


I see that many times in hurricanes near the Antilles arc, I made that question to storm and he say, that's not going to occur, but here is occurring.
2211. SeaMule
from the NHC "a turn toward the nw is expected on Tuesday"

go ahead and show us the plots.....a hit on the US if definitely gonna happen. and possibly a cat 5
GFS might have been right all along and 97L could get ripped up by Earl
2213. wjdow
Quoting FLdewey:

If you're going to play with trolls at least stop quoting them.


ok, you're right. just trying to back up Ike, not that he needed it.
Back here to watch for the next advisory...

after:
Filling the car with gas
Extra gas for the generator
two loaves of bread
CATfood
One additional extra pack of batteries.

I do NOT believe we here on Providenciales will get major impact from Earl.

I trust the NHC forecast
BUT
I PREPARE

CRS
Can't wait for StormW's report this morning...
I am going out on limb here,
The last two points given by the hurricane hunters put the movement about 290 degrees moving at 14 mph.
The same basic movement as the last 36 hours.

HH positions
18.51N 63.0W (1156 hrs)
18.6N 63.33W (1342 hrs)
Distance 25 miles
No upgrade on 97l for this advisory. Again this is per the NHC conference call. Actually she wasn't even discussed this time. The focus was of course onEarl, with Danielle only given a last minute thought.
2218. bird72
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I was trying to secure a roof in the patio and just get a cut on the leg, is not serious but i bleed. Raining haaaard right now with strong gusty winds.


Shiat that's the problem with this uncertainty thing. Here in Toa Baja is raining like hell and is very windy.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Sure it is because NHC gets to change their track every 6 hours LOL


Precisely. Yeah, they pretty much nailed the track. LOL.
2220. angiest
Quoting dader:


Wait is the break in the ridge from Danielle. I thought it was from a trof from the low in the Maritimes area? Maybe I'm wrong.


There is still a gap between the A/B high and the eastern US high (see the steering maps that others are posting). That is the weakness left in Danielle's wake. The key is will Earl slip into that gap.
Silence! This season is sooooo a Bust!!!

LOL -- J/K --- Sarcasm Flag on High

Just wanted everyone to know that I was not being serious

Maybe a better way of determining Earl's future track is to predict just how fast that ridge from high pressure front that seems to be somewhat stalled out over West Virginia (center of the front, which is just where it was yesterday) is going to move east?

I mean NHC keeps saying that Earl is going to round the bend of the ridge and go pell-mell due north and skirt the Eastern Coast (very close) of the United States.

I keep looking at the water vapor movement on the satellite imagery as a key indicator as to where the ridge is and it seems to keep pushing south, not east, if anything.

Now, Destin Jeff has published two nice pressure charts in 2078 and 2124 and I am really confused. If the hurricane goes north once it senses weakness near the edge of the ridge, that's going to take her right up the western coast of Florida!!!!!

So does anyone see any current eastern ridge movement or it is predicted to move east quickly in the next 24-48 hours?

Else I don't see what is to prevent Earl from visiting most of the tourist spots in Florida.....now, differently than most of us normally due, by traveling south to north......

Destin Jeff, where did you get the color barometric pressure chart. Could not make out the print at the bottome of the page. Really would like at access that webpage if you could publish the URL address.

And, enjoy the Puerto Rico weather radar while you can. If Earl keeps intensifying and moving along the current track.....well antennas and radomes don't do well, even if locked down, in 145 mph winds.....
Quoting bird72:


I see that many times in hurricanes near the Antilles arc, I made that question to storm and he say, that's not going to occur, but here is occurring.


we still are not that advanced so that we can predict with certainty these thing's behaivor. tracking storms in places where you actually get hit by them makes you savvy, though. im not a met but i knew this puppy was dangerous, no matter if pr was in or out of the cone, in or out of the models' path.
Quoting katrinakat5:
listen folks when a storm grows in size its much harder for a sharp turn it can make a slow gradual turnthats what im talking about...dont expect earl to make a real sharp turn he has many factors he is fighting right now with the high getting stronger to the north..this is going tobe a real hairy day..earl has got to make the turn before he gets to 65west in order to get sou fla and the bahamas out the woods..


Wanna see a sharp turn...go look at Floyd...a huge cat 4...made a hard right turn "just like that" as it approached the bahamas and florida.
2226. JeffM
I know StormW is out til this afternoon so I'd love to hear Kman's take on the situation.
Quoting FunkStorm:



If you are female, he would give it to you first.


Really not necessary
2228. BrandiQ
Quoting angiest:


There is still a gap between the A/B high and the eastern US high (see the steering maps that others are posting). That is the weakness left in Danielle's wake. The key is will Earl slip into that gap.


And if he doesn't... does he mean he will stay going WNW and not make the more north turn?
2229. bird72
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Don't think you can "see" the ridge on a satt loop; I'm looking at this latest map from this site but there are better NOAA charts out there:

http://english.wunderground.com/data/640x480/huratl_slp.gif


That breaks is behind Earl, and the high is heading southeast very fast....
Quoting WxLogic:
Water Vapor Loop

Note Earl's NW quadrant getting flatten as it hits the "wall" coming down from it's N/NW. It would have to stall long enough for the High dropping south to flatten to allow to resume a WNW to NW track or basically go around it by moving W to WSW. Anything is possible with this one.


Well put...that is what I have been watching develop since last night. A scary thought if it slips south at all...
The West Pacific is getting interesting two storms are going to collide and another will hit North Korea
Quoting barotropic:


Wanna see a sharp turn...go look at Floyd...a huge cat 4...made a hard right turn "just like that" as it approached the bahamas and florida.


1999 Floyd Track

Quoting markot:
look at the satt. loops its going west not wnw thnxxxx.

Radar shows wnw
2235. Prgal
Its very dark outside here in Carolina. There is light rain right now with occasional wind gusts but it was raining hard a few minutes ago.
Wx Station out of Charlotte Amalie USVI

This mornings NAM (for what it's worth) shows stronger rebuilding of the ridge to the northeast of Earl. This leads to a further west and slighly faster track. This continues the west trend in other models, but we need to see the more reliable guidance of the global models (GFS, ECMWF) and the hurricane models before the trend continuing is verified.

The first image below is this morning's NAM for Wednesday evening, while the second image is the same time from last nights run. Earlier in the run the stronger ridging is more apparent, but the end result of a farther west track is shown here.



for 97L
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Quoting angiest:


There is still a gap between the A/B high and the eastern US high (see the steering maps that others are posting). That is the weakness left in Danielle's wake. The key is will Earl slip into that gap.


Not entirely. There is another long wave trough digging across the central US and will be moving east later this week. This is what will eventually lead to Earl's turn to the north. Timing is as always the issue. A faster Earl and slower trough (or weaker) will result ina further track to the west which may bring the OBX and northeast into the picture. Slower Earl and faster trough will keep the hurricane far enough offshore with rip currents and some beach erosion the biggest effect.
2240. angiest
Eye looks to be shrinking on radar. It also doesn't seem to be making much headway at the moment.
StormW, we need an update from you!!! What is your latest on Earl's westerly progress?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
The West Pacific is getting interesting two storms are going to collide and another will hit North Korea

the 2 storms in the WPAC are feeding off each other, eating each other, making each other weaker, they will both dissipate. The Korean system will make it all the way to Japan in 7 days as a TD.
How fast can a hurricane turn????

See quick clip

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0sXyflXQCQ
Quoting AussieStorm:

Radar shows wnw


At worst, Earl is going to skim the Outer Banks and perhaps Nantucket...
Any ideas about the 1100 am advisory?
Quoting TexasHoosier:
Maybe a better way of determining Earl's future track is to predict just how fast that ridge from high pressure front that seems to be somewhat stalled out over West Virginia (center of the front, which is just where it was yesterday) is going to move east?

I mean NHC keeps saying that Earl is going to round the bend of the ridge and go pell-mell due north and skirt the Eastern Coast (very close) of the United States.

I keep looking at the water vapor movement on the satellite imagery as a key indicator as to where the ridge is and it seems to keep pushing south, not east, if anything.

Now, Destin Jeff has published two nice pressure charts in 2078 and 2124 and I am really confused. If the hurricane goes north once it senses weakness near the edge of the ridge, that's going to take her right up the western coast of Florida!!!!!

So does anyone see any current eastern ridge movement or it is predicted to move east quickly in the next 24-48 hours?

Else I don't see what is to prevent Earl from visiting most of the tourist spots in Florida.....now, differently than most of us normally due, by traveling south to north......

Destin Jeff, where did you get the color barometric pressure chart. Could not make out the print at the bottome of the page. Really would like at access that webpage if you could publish the URL address.

And, enjoy the Puerto Rico weather radar while you can. If Earl keeps intensifying and moving along the current track.....well antennas and radomes don't do well, even if locked down, in 145 mph winds.....


i didnt like your last bit lol... but somehow thats what this country needs a slap in the face, they're asleep behind the wheel! kids are in school, people in the jobs, and the first rain/windband hit thousands of cars in the expressway leaving them motionless in a giant jam with trees falling over (reported by dad, who goes out not in ignorance but in hurricane seeking behaivor :D )

now, looking at the steering, i dont know why this johnson earl james jones is not going north. look at that weakness, pretty evident huh



why, oh why is it wobbling like this? well, i believe that's what hurricanes do sometimes when they slow down and intensify. they become erratic. especially when they get to this part of the 'lantic. some, not all. some are just stoic beasts, good guys for model casting and nhc. face savers.

some just seem to not give a rats behind, take a swig from the atmosphere's moonshine content, and just wobble home...
Quoting btwntx08:
for 97L
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



97L right now is closer to Earl, than Earl was to Danielle when he was having issues

I guess we will see how it works out, but its going to be tight, if 97L gets too close its chances of developing drop dramatically

that being said we could see a TD or weak to moderate TS before that becomes an issue
Quoting angiest:


There is still a gap between the A/B high and the eastern US high (see the steering maps that others are posting). That is the weakness left in Danielle's wake. The key is will Earl slip into that gap.


And that gap is being bridged at the 300-850 level. Earl needs to turn by 65w, or I think we've got a tad bit of a problem.
2249. huber
NWS Long range radar out of PR showing a steady movement to the West...

Link
At this time I really don't care about the models. Earl is affecting us already and we have some damages already.
Quoting btwntx08:
for 97L
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


I would be surprised is 97L does develop, Earls outflow will shear 97L.
1905 aspectre "HurricaneEarl's heading had turned westward to 10.6degrees west of NorthNorthWest"
1918 angiest "You may want to check that. His actual motion may be unclear but it is definitely not NNW"

Note my use of the past tense "had turned":
I am reporting on what H.Earl was doing, and not on what it is doing.
I leave the what-it-is-doing-now to those with more expertise than me.

11.25degrees west of WestNorthWest is the same as 11.25degrees north of dueWest.
Another 0.7degrees west and I would have described the heading as "north of dueWest"
2254. angiest
Quoting Chucktown:


Not entirely. There is another long wave trough digging across the central US and will be moving east later this week. This is what will eventually lead to Earl's turn to the north. Timing is as always the issue. A faster Earl and slower trough (or weaker) will result ina further track to the west which may bring the OBX and northeast into the picture. Slower Earl and faster trough will keep the hurricane far enough offshore with rip currents and some beach erosion the biggest effect.


The effect of the later trough does depend on if Earl makes it into this weakness. I was only discussing the near-term track since, at this point, I think too much hinges on that. If he misses the current weakness, then where does he go? All I see is a stall or a move west to wsw if that were to happen. I wouldn't care to speculate on the impact on the later trough if that happens.
VISIBLES LOOP


I'm tired of reading about Danielle's weakness lifting Earl northwards. Ain't happening. That ship has sailed, IMO. Earl is even pulling upper level convection southwards now from the expiring weakness - not the other way around. The models have not fully grasped the changing dynamics yet either, imo.

Basically, Earl is a steering neutral position. It cannot feel the departing weakness, or if it does, its nearly insignificant. Likewise, there is a swesterly flow to the storm's east, serving to aid a bit of influence westwards. And then, there's the southerly flow to the storm's north/northwest that has slowed Earl's forward motion. The slower motion, coupled with Earl's natural movement poleward is essentially the only steering mechanism in place at the moment.


Earl can only do two things:

1. Gradually move more westwards around the periphery of the high pressure above it; or,

2. Slow, stall and await the departing CONUS trough, creating enough weakness and allowing the natural coriolis effect to allow it to escape northwards.

Where and when that takes place will simply be an issue of timing. The longer it takes, the likelihood of an east coast landfall becomes more imminent.

And, then there is one other factor coming into play - 97L or Fiona. The distance between the two is closing as 97L is moving at a fast clip, while Earl is slowing. Certainly, there will be an effect if these two get close enough in proximity to each other. What will happen? I'm certainly not sure, but it will be spectacular to watch unfold and the dynamics will then likely change considerably.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I would be surprised is 97L does develop, Earls outflow will shear 97L.


Maybe that's why they're only giving it a 90% chance of developing
2257. bird72
Many trees are down right now, no power in many parts of P.R. Is getting really bad, right now.
Quoting dader:


Wait is the break in the ridge from Danielle. I thought it was from a trof from the low in the Maritimes area? Maybe I'm wrong.


From the am discussion which is several hours old now;; I think it is a combination of both factors and the timing. The break in the sub-tropical ride was caused by Danielle and the Trof is supposed to finish off the job (based on current model guidance which could change a bit later today when you factor in the intensity issues):

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

EARL WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N.

AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS EARL TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
I beleive the blog is eating the newbie's posts..... Here is a second request for a question i asked earlier. It may have been answered, but i did not see it. Someone, anyone (except Kat)lol PLEASE respond...

Quick question from a newbie. If Earl keeps slowing and 97L is able to catch up, generally what would happen? Would they compete for energy? Would the two become one and get stronger? I really don't know so i would appreciate an opinion. TIA
2260. angiest
Quoting errantlythought:


And that gap is being bridged at the 300-850 level. Earl needs to turn by 65w, or I think we've got a tad bit of a problem.


I do agree, this will be touch and go.

Even if the NHC "ignores" the model tracks for the storm, they still rely on GFS, Euro, and NAM for the behaviour of the steering. If those models miss changes to the steering, then the forecast could easily be off.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I was trying to secure a roof in the patio and just get a cut on the leg, is not serious but i bleed. Raining haaaard right now with strong gusty winds.
Be carefull, it's too late to secure things in PR, winds are gust are getting stronger. At my location, our highest gust has been about 36 mph. The Track as off 8 am had Earl passing 80 miles north of San Juan!
huber dont mention a west movement these guys dont want to know the truth they will crucify you...they will find out and all of the m have a real rude awakening coming..i agree with you though..
Quoting wilburo33:
StormW, we need an update from you!!! What is your latest on Earl's westerly progress?


Won't get a post from StormW until early afternoon. He had a dr's appt w/ his child (he posted that this morning).
Quoting Hurricanes101:


97L right now is closer to Earl, than Earl was to Danielle when he was having issues

I guess we will see how it works out, but its going to be tight, if 97L gets too close its chances of developing drop dramatically

that being said we could see a TD or weak to moderate TS before that becomes an issue

completely agree
Quoting serialteg:
speaking of wobbles.



not the first time i see erratic behavior out of these beasts when they hit this part of the carib.


Do you have a link fir this loop?
Quoting want2lrn:
I beleive the blog is eating the newbie's posts..... Here is a second request for a question i asked earlier. It may have been answered, but i did not see it. Someone, anyone (except Kat)lol PLEASE respond...

Quick question from a newbie. If Earl keeps slowing and 97L is able to catch up, generally what would happen? Would they compete for energy? Would the two become one and get stronger? I really don't know so i would appreciate an opinion. TIA


They may start to revolve around eachother... it's called the Fujiwhara effect.

2267. JeffM
New Blog by Dr. Masters up
I'm sure everyone knows already but... NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting errantlythought:


And that gap is being bridged at the 300-850 level. Earl needs to turn by 65w, or I think we've got a tad bit of a problem.


I agree, I think it may have already missed the gap.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
At this time I really don't care about the models. Earl is affecting us already and we have some damages already.
me too, the latest hurricane statement said we will experience winds sustained anywhere from 30-50 mph, wind hurricane force gust over night.
80 miles n os san juan the nhc have to not be playing with a full deck here...ear will pass less then 30 miles n of puerto rico if thhe doesnt wobble s any..
2273. shawn26
I have been staring at the loops for an hour now straight, it sure looks like Earl is moving almost due west now.
Quoting WarEagle8:
Fajardo, Puerto Rico webcam link:

Link


sadly its stuck but in a pretty familiar and ominous picture...
..EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

2276. Thaale
...EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
Quoting katrinakat5:
80 miles n os san juan the nhc have to not be playing with a full deck here...ear will pass less then 30 miles n of puerto rico if thhe doesnt wobble s any..


earlier mornin i read 64% chance of hurricane winds for pr and 98% chance (at least for the east-northeasternmost)
Quoting shawn26:
I have been staring at the loops for an hour now straight, it sure looks like Earl is moving almost due west now.


Did you turn on LAT/LONG it will show thats its gaining north movement.
Great Post!

At least you are addressing reality...not the fiction of a re-curve


Quoting moonlightcowboy:
VISIBLES LOOP


I'm tired of reading about Danielle's weakness lifting Earl northwards. Ain't happening. That ship has sailed, IMO. Earl is even pulling upper level convection southwards now from the expiring weakness - not the other way around. The models have not fully grasped the changing dynamics yet either, imo.

Basically, Earl is a steering neutral position. It cannot feel the departing weakness, or if it does, its nearly insignificant. Likewise, there is a swesterly flow to the storm's east, serving to aid a bit of influence westwards. And then, there's the southerly flow to the storm's north/northwest that has slowed Earl's forward motion. The slower motion, coupled with Earl's natural movement poleward is essentially the only steering mechanism in place at the moment.


Earl can only do two things:

1. Gradually move more westwards around the periphery of the high pressure above it; or,

2. Slow, stall and await the departing CONUS trough, creating enough weakness and allowing the natural coriolis effect to allow it to escape northwards.

Where and when that takes place will simply be an issue of timing. The longer it takes, the likelihood of an east coast landfall becomes more imminent.

And, then there is one other factor coming into play - 97L or Fiona. The distance between the two is closing as 97L is moving at a fast clip, while Earl is slowing. Certainly, there will be an effect if these two get close enough in proximity to each other. What will happen? I'm certainly not sure, but it will be spectacular to watch unfold and the dynamics will then likely change considerably.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
.
2281. WxLogic
Quoting clwstmchasr:



Good morning. Like to hear your assessment of Earl's potential impact on the East Coast of the U.S.


Morning...

Here's some info...

Steering:

In the picture below you'll see a Red Circle:


12Z

This region is currently an area of weak steering (COL). This will cause Earl to have some unpredictable behaviors... sometimes as erratic movements happens, it could bring it closer to the TROF above or closer to the Islands if it goes/tries to go around the DLM High over E CONUS.

Given the past 3 to 6 hr trends on steering I'm noticing that the E flank of the DLM High is getting eroded a bit by the deepening TROF N of Earl. Due to this I do believe earl will soon be feeling more the effects of this weakness as it strengthens further in the 30C+ degree waters and resume a quicker pace than what it currently has in 24hrs or so and start heading more NW as the DLM High on the E CONUS becomes oriented in a SW TO NE fashion.

Now if the DLM High does not take this SW to NE orientation and is able to push the TROF N of Earl further to the E then it would then force Earl to take a more Westerly track before forcing Earl to travel closer to the E CONUS coastline, but will currently doubt it will be making actual landfall for the time being given the current conditions, but things could change as a better steering pattern attempts to get established.
Henry Margusity -

"COMMENTARY FOR MONDAY...
As you can see below, I put my path down for Earl. Keep in mind, the path represents where the eye will go. The red area represents the places that will be impacted by rain and wind from Earl. Typically, hurricanes expand in size as they come north due to the interaction with the northern latitude troughs. Just look at the size of Danielle now on the satellite image this morning, and you will see what I mean. In regards to impact, coastal areas will have the worst conditions with rain, wind and wave action. I do think the hardest-hit areas will be Cape Cod and Atlantic Canada, but any deviation west of the track will bring hurricane conditions into Long Island and a good part of New England. Also, Earl will accelerate coming north, so the impact on any one area will be about six hours."
2283. Thaale
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM BOTH
SAN JUAN AND ST. MAARTEN. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
EYEWALL AROUND 1200 UTC. THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT SAMPLED THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AGAIN...BUT FOUND 90 KT SFMR WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST EYEWALL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 960 MB. THIS SUPPORTS
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT...CATEGORY THREE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING EARL
AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL
CYCLES COULD INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IN 4-5 DAYS. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 18.7N 63.6W 105 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 65.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.7W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 70.6W 120 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 73.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 37.5N 71.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 45.5N 63.0W 75 KT...INLAND
Quoting WxLogic:


Morning...

Here's some info...

Steering:

In the picture below you'll see a Red Circle:


12Z

This region is currently an area of weak steering (COL). This will cause Earl to have some unpredictable behaviors... sometimes as erratic movements happens, it could bring it closer to the TROF above or closer to the Islands if it goes/tries to go around the DLM High over E CONUS.

Given the past 3 to 6 hr trends on steering I'm noticing that the E flank of the DLM High is getting eroded a bit by the deepening TROF N of Earl. Due to this I do believe earl will soon be feeling more the effects of this weakness as it strengthens further in the 30C+ degree waters and resume a quicker pace than what it currently has in 24hrs or so and start heading more NW as the DLM High on the E CONUS becomes oriented in a SW TO NE fashion.

Now if the DLM High does not take this SW to NE orientation and is able to push the TROF N of Earl further to the E then it would then force Earl to take a more Westerly track before forcing Earl to travel closer to the E CONUS coastline, but will currently doubt it will be making actual landfall for the time being given the current conditions, but things could change as a better steering pattern attempts to get established.


Great analysis, thanks!
Quoting hcubed:


And it was only yesterday that you said Earl would be a cat 2 passing to the SOUTH of PR.

What a difference a day makes...


There's no proof of that! ;-)
2286. Thaale
Quoting katrinakat5:
80 miles n os san juan the nhc have to not be playing with a full deck here...ear will pass less then 30 miles n of puerto rico if thhe doesnt wobble s any..


I swear you are worth the price of admission. I can just picture you wearing a ripped wife-beater and chain smoking marlboros.
serialteq, what I have been watching the last couple of days are these High's and Low's coming from West to East across the United States as an indicator for potential movement of Earl.

When I saw the chart posted by Destin Jeff in message 2078, what immediately struck me was that the center of ridge (the high pressure system that is extending down to and impacting the movement of Earl) DID NOT MOVE A BIT to the East from yesterday; it is still over West Virginia.

Which means its real strong, or the low pressure system behind it is not well organized or pretty weak, or there are other forces at work (maybe some reserve influence on these fronts from the hurricanes (Danielle and Earl) or something else that I am not aware of.

But if I use the position and movement of these large systems across North America and the Eastern Atlantic as a critical element in the movement of Earl (and probably 97L/Fiona, and the wave behind it) then unless something amazing happens real soon, it looks like Earl is probably either going to track across Florida or even go further west into the eastern part of the GOM - that is a real no-no.

This whole setup is not looking good right now....

Destin Jeff, do you have an opinion on this ridge/trough issue?
Heavy squall passing through PR. Probably seeing winds of 40-50 mph.
Earl is on his way to CAT 5
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


At worst, Earl is going to skim the Outer Banks and perhaps Nantucket...


That thought is well and good, but 6 days ago it was, "at worst, Earl is going to come within 100 miles, east of Bermuda"


51% CAT 4 in 24h and 7% CAT 5

According to NHC last track will be CAT 4 in 12h, 90 miles NE of San Juan.
Good morning from Bayamon, PR. We are about 5 miles SE of San Juan. We have heavy rain, gusty winds. Things looking bad.
last 3 hours:

1.2W vs only 0.4N

So still 3 to 1 ratio of west component vs north component for the past 6 hours.

2.5W 0.8N for the past 12 hours.

5.2W 1.5N for the past 24 hours.



Basicly it's still on almost the same identical heading as 24 hours ago.

The ratio has shifted slightly down from 4 to 1 to about 3 to 1, but this still trends well south of even the UPDATED forecast tracks.


Linear Extrapolation suggests a Florida Keys hurricane.

Steering at low and mid levels continues to show winds out of the north and east, which continues to undermine any chance to turn to the north.

The window for any significant northern turn is closing, because the storm should be passing the inflection point between the ridges presently, if it hasn't done so already.

If it does not turn very soon, it will inevitably end up on practically a Rita or Labor Day track, because nothing short of a miracle is just going to yank it north once it gets under the next ridge...

Does anyone have a more up-to-date steering chart? I think what I have is 3 hours old, but not good news for Florida...
Quoting RecordSeason:
last 3 hours:

1.2W vs only 0.4N

So still 3 to 1 ratio of west component vs north component for the past 6 hours.

2.5W 0.8N for the past 12 hours.

5.2W 1.5N for the past 24 hours.



Basicly it's still on almost the same identical heading as 24 hours ago.

The ratio has shifted slightly down from 4 to 1 to about 3 to 1, but this still trends well south of even the UPDATED forecast tracks.


Linear Extrapolation suggests a Florida Keys hurricane.

Steering at low and mid levels continues to show winds out of the north and east, which continues to undermine any chance to turn to the north.

The window for any significant northern turn is closing, because the storm should be passing the inflection point between the ridges presently, if it hasn't done so already.

If it does not turn very soon, it will inevitably end up on practically a Rita or Labor Day track, because nothing short of a miracle is just going to yank it north once it gets under the next ridge...

Does anyone have a more up-to-date steering chart? I think what I have is 3 hours old, but not good news for Florida...


So you are saying that the NHC could be off by 700 miles in their 3 day forecast?
Quoting Claudette1234:


51% CAT 4 in 24h and 7% CAT 5

According to NHC last track will be CAT 4 in 12h, 90 miles NE of San Juan.

So basically the NHC is forecasting a beast of a storm. Joy. Just what we need. (sarcasm)
Did the blog hyperventilate or what? No new comments is not possible here.
Quoting want2lrn:
I beleive the blog is eating the newbie's posts..... Here is a second request for a question i asked earlier. It may have been answered, but i did not see it. Someone, anyone (except Kat)lol PLEASE respond...

Quick question from a newbie. If Earl keeps slowing and 97L is able to catch up, generally what would happen? Would they compete for energy? Would the two become one and get stronger? I really don't know so i would appreciate an opinion. TIA

As TampaTom mentioned, they may begin a Fujiwara effect (rotating around a common center), but that depends on the relative strength of each storm. If Earl is a strong hurricane (like he is forecast to be), and 97L is a TS, 97L will likely be sheared apart by the outflow of Earl.

IF they do rotate around a common center, you will see 97L get shot to the right of its track, and Earl will get pushed to the left. Fujiwara effects don't come into play until the low centers are 900nm apart or less.
Quoting RecordSeason:
last 3 hours:

1.2W vs only 0.4N

So still 3 to 1 ratio of west component vs north component for the past 6 hours.

2.5W 0.8N for the past 12 hours.

5.2W 1.5N for the past 24 hours.



Basicly it's still on almost the same identical heading as 24 hours ago.

The ratio has shifted slightly down from 4 to 1 to about 3 to 1, but this still trends well south of even the UPDATED forecast tracks.


Linear Extrapolation suggests a Florida Keys hurricane.

Steering at low and mid levels continues to show winds out of the north and east, which continues to undermine any chance to turn to the north.

The window for any significant northern turn is closing, because the storm should be passing the inflection point between the ridges presently, if it hasn't done so already.

If it does not turn very soon, it will inevitably end up on practically a Rita or Labor Day track, because nothing short of a miracle is just going to yank it north once it gets under the next ridge...

Does anyone have a more up-to-date steering chart? I think what I have is 3 hours old, but not good news for Florida...


Once again...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
Quoting SkulDouggery:
Did the blog hyperventilate or what? No new comments is not possible here.


no landfalling conus = "lethargic" forum
Quoting tatoprweather:
Good morning from Bayamon, PR. We are about 5 miles SE of San Juan. We have heavy rain, gusty winds. Things looking bad.


ponce es ponce. no wind, slight rain, testigos de jehova outside knocking doors, business as usual. :)
Count is now at..
5-3-2

We're not even in September yet lol...
Quoting katrinakat5:
listen folks when a storm grows in size its much harder for a sharp turn it can make a slow gradual turnthats what im talking about...dont expect earl to make a real sharp turn he has many factors he is fighting right now with the high getting stronger to the north..this is going tobe a real hairy day..earl has got to make the turn before he gets to 65west in order to get sou fla and the bahamas out the woods..


KK5, I totally agree. And it had better due it before Earl gets real big. Not sure what law of Physics defines it, but a large mass moving in one direction becomes much harder (slower) to change direction especially when you consider the interaction between the storm and the ocean/land acting as a drag on a turning movement of such a mass.
Landfall somewhere in the northeastern US determines on how fast Earl can make it to the coast before the trough does, the race is on!

Photobucket
Folks, whenever I try and quote someone before sending out a post, it invariably fails the first time to take. I always have to quote somebody twice in my post before it takes. Probably due to all activity going on in the blog; this only started a few days ago.
Quoting TexasHoosier:


KK5, I totally agree. And it had better due it before Earl gets real big. Not sure what law of Physics defines it, but a large mass moving in one direction becomes much harder (slower) to change direction especially when you consider the interaction between the storm and the ocean/land acting as a drag on a turning movement of such a mass.


That is a totally untrue comment. The storm does not know what is "underneath" it. It is complete fluid dynamics. Earl will respond to the path of least resistance regardless of size or as you said "mass".
Quoting TexasHoosier:


KK5, I totally agree. And it had better due it before Earl gets real big. Not sure what law of Physics defines it, but a large mass moving in one direction becomes much harder (slower) to change direction especially when you consider the interaction between the storm and the ocean/land acting as a drag on a turning movement of such a mass.


Interia, but it's based on mass and acceleration, so if Earl's forward movement slows, it would more than offset the size increase.

Trust the models, there is a tight consensus.
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 100 knots (~ 115.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 105 knots (~ 120.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 30 mm/hr (~ 1.18 in/hr)


central preassure 957mb 105kts 120,7 mph
The size of the storm has a dual effect... it makes it simply more massive (and slower to intensify), but it also makes it steered by a deeper layer of winds. Many large storms have made hard turns... see:
Floyd
Rita
Katrina
Ike
Danielle

All 5 made turns in excess of 30 degrees in a short time.
Peak SMRF on this pass 109 knts... is this already up to 110 knts???
Looks like Earl took a wobble to the north, great news for PR.
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like Earl took a wobble to the north, great news for PR.


Lets hope its the begining of the expected turn to the north.
Quoting TruthCommish:


Lets hope its the begining of the expected turn to the north.


Looking at the water vapor, it seems this will get dangerously close to the Carolinas, then skirt the Northeast brining quite a scare for them. Even if it turns north early, it's good for PR, but doesn't mean much for the Northeast and Canada.
12Z GFS at 30 hours is a good bit south of the 06Z run, let alone that the 00Z and 12Z are more reliable then the 06Z and 18Z. Just skirting the Dominican Republic/Haiti with some feder band action.

Looks like GFS wants Earl to make landfall in the Northeast.. I'm expecting other models to shift left some more.

Earl still recurves, not making a landfall until Canada on the 12Z GFS, very similar to the 00Z run.
There is no doubt. NHC is not perfect, but darn are they good at predicting tracks. This is not a sure science there are margins for error here, But Earl did as expected and I do not see a reason why it would change any the rest of the forecasted trac. I would keep an eye on it of course, but I believe we might get spared once again this time. I am also glad that this monster did not do a more direct hit on Puerto Rico and I sure hope no deaths are related to this thing.
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like Earl took a wobble to the north, great news for PR.


Hopefully it will be a trend and not a wobble, but as you said in anither post it means little to the East Coast unless it makes a definite turn to the North or NNW.
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like Earl took a wobble to the north, great news for PR.


Hopefully it will be a trend and not a wobble, but as you said in anither post it means little to the East Coast unless it makes a definite turn to the North or NNW.
2320. WXHam
Earl Advisory 22 ... note track adjustment

000
WTNT42 KNHC 302047
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 116 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND
108 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 1500 UTC. THIS WAS THE
BASIS FOR THE EARLIER INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND WAS DOWN TO 955 MB ON THE LAST
DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE AROUND 1700 UTC. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
DEPARTED EARL...THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY
CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO JUST ABOVE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT...CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER...EYEWALL CYCLES WILL LIKELY
INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT. THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24
HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...
PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS...
AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.3N 64.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 20.2N 66.3W 125 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 21.7N 68.1W 130 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 23.4N 70.1W 130 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.1W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.6N 74.7W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 71.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 45.5N 63.0W 70 KT...INLAND

Nice TS Fiona is finally named