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Earl maintaining Category 4 strength; hurricane watches for North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:44 PM GMT on August 31, 2010

Hurricane watches are now posted for coastal North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl continues towards the west-northwest at 13 mph with little change in strength. Currently, the outer reaches of the storm are affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands, and NOAA's Wavewatch III model is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves are affecting these islands. Early this morning, waves at buoy 41043 offshore of Puerto Rico reached 31 feet. Winds at Providenciales in the Turks were only 20 - 25 mph this afternoon, though Cockburn Town and Balfour Town in the extreme eastern Turks may be seeing winds near tropical storm force--40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent visible satellite loops show that the southwest side of Earl is getting eaten into by wind shear and dry air. The storm is no longer as symmetrical as 24 hours ago, and the spiral band on Earl's west side has been destroyed by dry air. Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast shows a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This moderate shear is predicted to continue through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show some moderately dry air to Earl's southwest, and very dry air to the northwest. Once Earl works its way farther to the northwest, it is possible that the persistent moderate wind shear will be able to drive this dry air deep enough into Earl's west side to significantly disrupt it. However, none of the models is predicting this, and Earl is probably large and strong enough to fend off this sort of assault. I give a 30% chance that a major dry air intrusion will significantly disrupt Earl between now and Thursday, weakening it to a Category 2 hurricane. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. Earl is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which may diminish its winds by 10 - 20 mph for a day or so. There is no evidence that Earl has weakened, though, based on the latest pressure of 940 mb from the Hurricane Hunters. It is likely Earl will be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.

Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are pretty unified in taking Earl 100 - 200 miles off the coast of North Carolina, then 150 - 300 miles off the coast of Southeast Massachusetts, then into Nova Scotia. The high degree of model unity gives confidence that this is the correct solution, but it is good to keep in mind that the average error in a 48-hour NHC forecast is about 125 miles. It is likely that Earl will bring a 15-hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 15% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. By Friday evening, Southeast Massachusetts can expect a 6 - 8 hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. NHC is giving Nantucket a 13% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 5% for Boston, 6% for Providence, 8% for Eastport, Maine, and 14% for Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves from Hurricane Danielle killed two swimmers in the U.S. over the weekend and forced hundreds of water rescues along the U.S. East Coast. Earl's waves will be worse, and will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage.

Next update
Dr. Rob Carver is planning an update late tonight, and I'll have a full update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. snowboy
Quoting songman77:
Anyone have info on how fast the trough is moving across the midwest?


It took a day to get across Minnesota..
enough talk about the bolivar peninsula, we get it, Ike devastated it, we are dealing with something at present here. That would be hurricane Earl. Thanks
1503. will40
Quoting StormJunkie:


No kidding, that is one thin strip of land. Oz is going to be very disappointed. He is flying in to Charlotte tomorrow morning, renting a car, and I suppose trying to drive out to the OBX. One of two things will happen...Either they won't let him on, or Earl will be far enough away that they'll let him on and there won't be much to see.


i think you are right SJ here on Emerald Isle we have to have a red pass card to show that we own property on the island when it is evacuated
1504. JRRP
Quoting Beachfoxx:
LOL - I worry about that man - Oz.... he ain't right! LOL

Oz ya know I'm just kidding... but I do worry!


I just hope when he leaves the Gene pool.. he does not take any innocent person with him.

HH is feet wet and should be producing soon :)




1506. Ryuujin
Quoting reedzonemyhero:
Not to be a downcaster but Earl will graciously turn at least 200 miles East of Cape Hatteras. Guston is the naughty one to pay attention too.



Ah and what's going to turn him? You standing on the Cape and going

"Fffffth.. Fffftth?"

Seriously. Look how bad the Trof is hung up. Unless it moves, and moves FAST, Earl is going to come say hello to a lot of folks on the East Coast. And not in a nice, neighborly sort of way, mind you. And it also seems that Earl's forward momentum has increased.
1507. JRRP
This is really really strange. Cat 4 heading for the east coast and I can keep up with the blog.

Something wrong here. Of course I'm in FL and don't have any storm preparations to make. Hopefully that's what is happening and everyone is getting prepared for what might come their way!
1509. twooks
When do the new models runs come out? Specifically the European and GFS?
Quoting StormJunkie:
And one more from Bolivar...

Very sad, but a case study on how the words "certain death" didn't get all the souls to evac.
Just trying to get the point out that even if landfall, with the accompanying wind, does not happen, a lot of damage can be done by water. Hopefully no one gets hurt there.
1512. alfabob
Annular Hurricanes pages 9 and 10. Notice any similarities between these and Earl? Just seems suspicious due to the cloud temps rising slightly and forming more of a donut shape.
Hey regulars, newbie here. A quick question then back behind my bush...It looks like Fiona has split in half. Does that hold any significance, since it looks like the lower half is heading into the caribbean? No stick throwing please, im shuffling quickly back to the lurk bush......
New surface pressure overlays for Gomex and Earl Floater are just out.

Not good really.

the continental ridge remains very strong and is still oriented in a way that is going to make Earl want to hook left again at some point.

Where is that trough?
1515. will40
Quoting twooks:
When do the new models runs come out? Specifically the European and GFS?


GFS started at 11:30
1516. beell
Good night, folks.
Hope you find that trough!
j/k
Quoting Floodman:


There will be some flavor of Fujiwhara effect...typicvally, ieht two systems of roughly equal strength, they will circle each other around a center point and eventually combine; in this case, Fiona will orbit Earl until Earl consumes her


Thanks for the info Floodman. I was wondering though if this would slow down or speed up Earl? Fiona already looks like she is becoming part of Earl. She must be moving pretty fast.
StormJunkie! Glad to see you! : )
Quoting RMM34667:
This is really really strange. Cat 4 heading for the east coast and I can keep up with the blog.

Something wrong here. Of course I'm in FL and don't have any storm preparations to make. Hopefully that's what is happening and everyone is getting prepared for what might come their way!


A few things happening...One, the OBX is much less populated than Fla...Two, the storm is NOT heading to Fla...Amazing the difference in traffic when there is a potential for a Fla landfall.
Quoting twooks:
When do the new models runs come out? Specifically the European and GFS?
00z GFS starting now
Earl ain't looking too bad on either infrared or water vapor. I still wish I had some visible or similar proxy to reference for things like cloud thickness and outflow boundaries though.



Quoting RecordSeason:
New surface pressure overlays for Gomex and Earl Floater are just out.

Not good really.

the continental ridge remains very strong and is still oriented in a way that is going to make Earl want to hook left again at some point.

Where is that trough?


Can you link that please!
1523. MZT
In 1989 I was living in Raleigh. We knew Hugo was coming right towards us, and I got together with friends and we played cards waiting for the event. We were a bit perplexed near midnight, and step outside to a dry and windy night. Everyone drove home, realizing there was nothing to "strand us togther".

The next morning, the news was all about what happened Charleston up through Charlotte.

Forecasts do miss at the last moment sometimes.
1524. GetReal
Quoting will40:


i think you are right SJ here on Emerald Isle we have to have a red pass card to show that we own property on the island when it is evacuated


And for what he does, the OBX is going to be the only place to be to get what he wants...It's a real shame.
I have noticed the absence of many of the knowledgeable blog regulars tonight. I suspect they may have gone somewhere else to avoid the trolls. Just guessing. Wish they would just use ignore and "show best" and stick around to give those who care information.
1527. wjdow
Quoting RMM34667:
This is really really strange. Cat 4 heading for the east coast and I can keep up with the blog.

Something wrong here. Of course I'm in FL and don't have any storm preparations to make. Hopefully that's what is happening and everyone is getting prepared for what might come their way!


Good point, North Carolina coast is relatively less populated than Fla or Gulf, but New England hasn't seen a big storm in a long time. Weather Underground got a lot of new members around K, R and I. Another meaning for the word storm surge when suddenly many more people take an interest in the tropics.
1528. twooks
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
00z GFS starting now


Thks.

SJ -
Its because we Floridians are StormJunkies! ROFL Mention a tropical storm & we all flock to WU....
Quoting StormJunkie:


A few things happening...One, the OBX is much less populated than Fla...Two, the storm is NOT heading to Fla...Amazing the difference in traffic when there is a potential for a Fla landfall.
THE
TIMING OF THIS TURN IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO
BECAUSE EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN BE
WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
1531. will40
Quoting StormJunkie:


And for what he does, the OBX is going to be the only place to be to get what he wants...It's a real shame.


Yes could get very scary and dangerous for sure
There has been lots of talk about the speed of the approaching trough and the interaction with Earl.Not much about the orientation of the trough which will prove equally important. The trough can beat Earl to the coast, but if trough axis goes negative, Earl runs up Narragansett bay. The trough has not been that progressive so far and there is definitely some blockiness from the negative NAO (GFS has extratropical remnants going due north of NS and looping NW over northern Labrador). I am not saying the flow is going to go more north-south, but watch how far south the polar vortex gets ejected behind the cold front. That will dictate orientation of the trough axis.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
SJ -
Its because we Floridians are StormJunkies! ROFL Mention a tropical storm & we all flock to WU....


Lol, true...Also, a very large population that has been through it before. Plenty of kids that want to go through it for the first time; etc.

Did not mean that with any disrespect, but this blog certainly has a Fla bias ;)
Quoting GetReal:
how does ststorm move noth with the high positioned offed the east coa
i dont know if istory palys a part in waht these storms can do but gloria and bob sat off the carolina coast just like earl will and they came stright up at us here
This makes me think of Hurricane Agnes, with some trepidation and fond memories of our wedding. We were married in PA during Agnes, and it stopped raining the afternoon of June 24. We lost friends and my family in NY lost their homes. Such a disaster. It's funny that most people don't think about the disaster that can occur on the upper east coast and New England from a hurricane. Everyone assumes it only happens in Florida and the Gulf...oh so wrong.
Quoting want2lrn:
Hey regulars, newbie here. A quick question then back behind my bush...It looks like Fiona has split in half. Does that hold any significance, since it looks like the lower half is heading into the caribbean? No stick throwing please, im shuffling quickly back to the lurk bush......


The people that could answer that best don't seem to be here right now (I don't think). You might try again in the morning.
1540. wjdow
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
THE
TIMING OF THIS TURN IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO
BECAUSE EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN BE
WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.

]
fewer caps please
Been pondering... will the cut off ULL over LA/MS have any effect on Earl? Seems like that might be a weakness on the sw portion of the H. Please forgive my ignorance...just a stupid lurker!
Quoting MZT:
In 1989 I was living in Raleigh. We knew Hugo was coming right towards us, and I got together with friends and we played cards waiting for the event. We were a bit perplexed near midnight, and step outside to a dry and windy night. Everyone drove home, realizing there was nothing to "strand us togther".

The next morning, the news was all about what happened Charleston up through Charlotte.

Forecasts do miss at the last moment sometimes.


thank you for saying this. Floyd was suppost to hit Florida next thing you know hes hitting wilmington, NC and dumped 25 inches of rain over eastern NC. Little wobbles in track can mean a landfall in SE NC while a wobble to the right means no landfall at all. Everyone in the Carolinas needs to get prepared even if Earl does not make landfall for the next 4 systems lined up taking similar tracks as Earl!!!!
I think it has something to do with the seasons we had in 2004 and 2005. We got hammered over & over... even Ike & Katrina gave us some serious beach erosion.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Lol, true...Also, a very large population that has been through it before. Plenty of kids that want to go through it for the first time; etc.

Did not mean that with any disrespect, but this blog certainly has a Fla bias ;)
1544. amd
Quoting want2lrn:
Hey regulars, newbie here. A quick question then back behind my bush...It looks like Fiona has split in half. Does that hold any significance, since it looks like the lower half is heading into the caribbean? No stick throwing please, im shuffling quickly back to the lurk bush......


I'll give this a shot. I wouldn't be shocked if some of the energy of Fiona goes into the Caribbean, while the other part of Fiona gets entrained into Earl. Don't think much will happen though with that energy.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The big picture:



Dang it, Africa, STOP IT!
1546. 2COOL
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=goes-east_4km_ir4
00Z GFS @ 45 hrs.







Thank you!
Will, unless he goes wayyy N, that is the only place I see him having a chance to "get the shots" he wants though. He's well prepared physically, and equipment wise...Just not sure he sees the bigger picture of how to accomplish what he wants.

Just tried looking at floaters for Earl and can't even log in to view......guess the servers are all over whelmed.
1551. MZT
Well it is VERY dry and still in Charlotte right now. Does not have that cirrus-y, breezy feel to the air that is present before a hurricane. Guess it'll be tomorrow afternoon before that begins.
Quoting reedzone:
Made my 3rd run on Earl just now.. Just a reminder that the light orange skinny line is the outliers of how far Earl can go, orange track is pretty much a "possible path", the big red line is my forecast and what I believe is the more likely scenario. It all depends on how fast Earl can go, can he beat the trough?

Photobucket


"all consists" ???
How about "is contingent upon" ?
Earl on GOES-15:

THAT IS WHAT I'M THINKING.
anyone link for leeward radar
Quoting wjdow:

]
fewer caps please


Was a cut and paste from the NHC site.
1557. JRRP
Quoting coriolis:


Dang it, Africa, STOP IT!

looks like Africa has diarrea of TW
Time for nite-nite. (Yes I have kids) Earl will still be here in the AM. God bless Y'all
Quoting Beachfoxx:
I think it has something to do with the seasons we had in 2004 and 2005. We got hammered over & over... even Ike & Katrina gave us some serious beach erosion.


Agreed Beach...The olden days of that happening to NC are 10+ years out now...They are the ones that use to get multiple storms year in and year out. '04 & '05 certainly sparked a lot of interest in people throughout Fla. Still can't get over Jeanine sitting there for 24hrs straight...

Quoting MZT:
Well it is VERY dry and still in Charlotte right now. Does not have that cirrus-y, breezy feel to the air that is present before a hurricane. Guess it'll be tomorrow afternoon before that begins.
thats the calm before the storm
1561. wjdow
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
THAT IS WHAT I'M THINKING.


caps off or poof, doesn't matter to me
Quoting amd:


I'll give this a shot. I wouldn't be shocked if some of the energy of Fiona goes into the Caribbean, while the other part of Fiona gets entrained into Earl. Don't think much will happen though with that energy.
Concur, asked about this possibility earlier, Miami09 and the regulars who were on at the time seemed to dismiss it. Interesting scenario IMHO.
00Z GFS on Earl's closest approach (+57 hrs):

one thing not fun for us here in mass is we have to wait to see how other systems will interact with earl which doesnt give us much lead time i feel like it will be thursday when they will be able to say duck or wave bye bye to earl
1565. JLPR2
The north blob of Fiona is not where the circulation is, the one to the south has it.



Around 17N 59.4W according to the NHC
To those looking for advice there is still relatively solid information in it tonight despite lack of posters with high post counts and some of the mets. Imo check back in the am for Dr masters and storm w information. Earl won't be threatening tomorrowListen to your local authority and stay ready just in case the situation continues to sour and trend westward as it has been.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Will, unless he goes wayyy N, that is the only place I see him having a chance to "get the shots" he wants though. He's well prepared physically, and equipment wise...Just not sure he sees the bigger picture of how to accomplish what he wants.



Hey John, i got your feed ready to go on my Website as well along with 2 commuinty Chat rooms and an Instant Messanger as well. Everything does work fine as i have already tested with his last run.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
anyone link for leeward radar


This one? Link
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Concur, asked about this possibility earlier, Miami09 and the regulars who were on at the time seemed to dismiss it. Interesting scenario IMHO.
you never know what mother nature might drum up
1570. bassis
on the website http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_NORTH_EAST/SURGE_NORTH_96_HR.shtml

The legion goes from-2.0 to 5.0, could some desifer what this really means in feet
Deadly storm Jeanne - I think the deadliest storm of 2004.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Agreed Beach...The olden days of that happening to NC are 10+ years out now...They are the ones that use to get multiple storms year in and year out. '04 & '05 certainly sparked a lot of interest in people throughout Fla. Still can't get over Jeanine sitting there for 24hrs straight...

Quoting hswiseman:
There has been lots of talk about the speed of the approaching trough and the interaction with Earl.Not much about the orientation of the trough which will prove equally important. The trough can beat Earl to the coast, but if trough axis goes negative, Earl runs up Narragansett bay. The trough has not been that progressive so far and there is definitely some blockiness from the negative NAO (GFS has extratropical remnants going due north of NS and looping NW over northern Labrador). I am not saying the flow is going to go more north-south, but watch how far south the polar vortex gets ejected behind the cold front. That will dictate orientation of the trough axis.
If I'm looking at it correctly, that trough has moved 150 miles or so through the dakotas...and bowed in a bit further south and moved maybe 200 miles through Kansas/Ok. So it does presently look more vertically aligned as the day has gone on. If I'm looking at the right thing. If I am, it also doesn't look like it's going to come fast enough to meet Earl, unless there's something else that's going to speed that trough up.
I have had a few beers but I just ran some loops on the nhc. The mslp lines have become perpendicular to the path of Earl. I will leave that to the experts until i have more time to look.But very interesting.
Quoting alfabob:
Annular Hurricanes pages 9 and 10. Notice any similarities between these and Earl? Just seems suspicious due to the cloud temps rising slightly and forming more of a donut shape.
I said something about this earlier and asked for peoples opinion no body responded. I am not a pro by any means and would like others to comment on this it would be greatly appreciated.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Lol, true...Also, a very large population that has been through it before. Plenty of kids that want to go through it for the first time; etc.

Did not mean that with any disrespect, but this blog certainly has a Fla bias ;)


I'm such a misfit. Lol. :)
The models have shifed Left and it is rather scary how they Bend very far left toward the end up in Canada. The Massachuttes area could really get rocked if that bend to the left continues and becomes more pronounced earlier.






Quoting wjdow:

]
fewer caps please


This was undoubtedly cut and pasted from a NHC advisory. You know how those guys like to shout...
LOOK LIKE HURRICANE EARL IS MOVING AROUND 16 MPH NOW. U SEE IT MOVING MUCH FASTER NOW.
Quoting weathercrazy40:
one thing not fun for us here in mass is we have to wait to see how other systems will interact with earl which doesnt give us much lead time i feel like it will be thursday when they will be able to say duck or wave bye bye to earl
That is the way it looks. Prob thursday afternoon we will know what to expect. Get ready tomorrow night if the track is close to what it is now. I plan on getting the yard and house ready tomorrow
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey John, i got your feed ready to go on my Website as well along with 2 commuinty Chat rooms and an Instant Messanger as well. Everything does work fine as i have already tested with his last run.


Not my feed TS...Just make sure you ran that by Oz. He hasn't talked to me in a while. Had a falling out because he kept driving from NM to halfway across the country to chase thunderstorms...Then he couldn't handle hearing the reality of situations. It's all good though, I wish him the best of luck in his endeavors, he just needs people around him to feed his ego...That's not my style. I'll always give you my honest opinion, no matter how hard it is to hear or say.
Dang did everyone get banned? I see a ton of handles that I have never seen and the usual suspects are absent...flashing pics of JFV's under the sea goober beefcake glam-shots again?
earl is far from annular:
1 ) He has expansive outflow
2 ) Annular canes form in near zero shear environments.
1583. wjdow
Quoting SkinnyKnockdown:


This was undoubtedly cut and pasted from a NHC advisory. You know how those guys like to shout...


possibly, but his next capped comment (1554) was all his own. even newbie trolls need to learn the rules.
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
LOOK LIKE HURRICANE EARL IS MOVING AROUND 16 MPHwe NOW. U S
EE IT MOVING MUCH FASTER NOW.

he's heading home where ever that is
Earl is poised to wreck havoc all up the eastern coast... hope people are making preperations.

Be safe!
G'Night.

Peace
and
YOLO
1586. MZT
Oh well, bailing until the 8AM update. Leaving this for the overnighters
1573:

No, it really is a matter of concern to me.

It's just a matter of time before Earl feels that 1014mb isobar right on top of it.

Surprisingly, it only took a 1012mb "ridge" to steer Alex, and that was like the biggest atlantic storm in my lifetime.

Even if the 1014 doesn't get it, what about the 1016 a mere degree north of there?
Quoting CosmicEvents:
If I'm looking at it correctly, that trough has moved 150 miles or so through the dakotas...and bowed in a bit further south and moved maybe 200 miles through Kansas/Ok. So it does presently look more vertically aligned as the day has gone on. If I'm looking at the right thing. If I am, it also doesn't look like it's going to come fast enough to meet Earl, unless there's something else that's going to speed that trough up.


I don't know who will win the race the trough or Earl. Earl looks to be moving much faster the last few hours. Like he was just hit in the rear with fine shot!
1589. JLPR2
Well... *scratches head*

I feel a little Deja Vu LOL!
1591. markot
98 looks like a lot of trouble it wont be curving away.....
Quoting cheaterwon:
I said something about this earlier and asked for peoples opinion no body responded. I am not a pro by any means and would like others to comment on this it would be greatly appreciated.


I do appreciate the link to the publication. I have seen the "annular" term used a couple of times recently. Will read it when able. I'm not even a meteo-poser ... so I won't be posting analytics on it!
1593. amd
hurricane force gusts already reported at buoy 41046.

11:47 pm N ( 10 deg ) 66.0 kts

Buoy 41046 information/a>
Quoting ConchHondros:
Dang did everyone get banned? I see a ton of handles that I have never seen and the usual suspects are absent...flashing pics of JFV's under the sea goober beefcake glam-shots again?
Speaking for myself, long time lurker, only been posting a short time.
Quoting bassis:
on the website http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_NORTH_EAST/SURGE_NORTH_96_HR.shtml

The legion goes from-2.0 to 5.0, could some desifer what this really means in feet


Can't figure it out either. Possibly above and below mean tide level?
Jason, would you look at post 1513 and give a little synopsis. A couple of people have responded, but i am curious on your take. No offense intended to those who have answered, i just like different view points. Helps with the learning curve. TIA
Quoting LongGlassTube:


I don't know who will win the race the trough or Earl. Earl looks to be moving much faster the fionalast few hours. Like he was just hit in the rear with fine shot!

behind every good man there is a good woman.i hate to admit but fiona is pushing heck out of him.
some how I have a feeling that Fiona could relocate south and west
Quoting amd:
hurricane force gusts already reported at buoy 41046.

11:47 pm N ( 10 deg ) 66.0 kts

Buoy 41046 information/a>


The wave heights are pretty impressive as well.
1600. GetReal
It sure is beginning to look like Fiona can't read model directions either!
1601. bassis
Quoting PcolaDan:


Can't figure it out either. Possibly above and below mean tide level?


Thanks, I'll keep googleing for a diff one
Ah well.

I'm going to bed now.

I'm gonna go ahead and say I'm still convinced Earl is going to hit land well west of the most recent NHC cone.

It always ends up west of the cone eventually anyway, so may as well plan on it...
New blog up folks...I know, odd in the middle of the night right?
Quoting CosmicEvents:
If I'm looking at it correctly, that trough has moved 150 miles or so through the dakotas...and bowed in a bit further south and moved maybe 200 miles through Kansas/Ok. So it does presently look more vertically aligned as the day has gone on. If I'm looking at the right thing. If I am, it also doesn't look like it's going to come fast enough to meet Earl, unless there's something else that's going to speed that trough up.


Hi Cosmic,
You can see it clearly (ugh) at bl's post a couple pages back- gray WVL. He pointed out a big punch coming from NW to SE that made its way in from Pac NW. I think what you're seeing in "the middle" where I live (OK) is not THE trough. THE trough is expected in OKlahoma Thurs eve/early Friday last I looked.
Based on what i'm seeing (radar + IR sat), TS Fiona is gettin better organized
Quoting StormJunkie:


Not my feed TS...Just make sure you ran that by Oz. He hasn't talked to me in a while. Had a falling out because he kept driving from NM to halfway across the country to chase thunderstorms...Then he couldn't handle hearing the reality of situations. It's all good though, I wish him the best of luck in his endeavors, he just needs people around him to feed his ego...That's not my style. I'll always give you my honest opinion, no matter how hard it is to hear or say.


I talked to him today.....had no idea. Think things like this is best not discussed in open forum tho......Sorry!

new blog
1608. Ryuujin
Quoting amd:
hurricane force gusts already reported at buoy 41046.

11:47 pm N ( 10 deg ) 66.0 kts

Buoy 41046 information/a>


About how far in Nautical miles is Earl away? I know he's at least a lat/lon away. But how far is that?
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I'm just not real sure about this Polar Bear trough yet! Lookin' more like a cub, up against 4 big cub eaters. Plus, you've the high digging, down from the nwest to split, inhibit, delay the longwave.

Maritime forecast has the dearly departing Danielle weakness effectively, and finally, "GONE" by somewhere around noon tomorrow. After that, I'm thinking Earl will no longer have the desire to move as much northwards, and that he will push more westwards up against the 1016-1018 (maybe 1020)mb high pressure, and then slow. Maybe that will give the polar bear trough time to tug him out to sea.

But, I ain't bettin' on it!
1610. amd
Quoting Ryuujin:


About how far in Nautical miles is Earl away? I know he's at least a lat/lon away. But how far is that?


depending on how fast he has moved from 11 pm est to that hurricane force gust, probably 65-70 nautical miles away.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



I don't know, but we've been talkin' 'bout that danged trough now for 14 days. Seems it hasn't moved all that much! ;P And, Earl gets closer and closer!
I'm in central IL--no rain for over 2 weeks, warmer than normal temps--yes we are ready for a change in the weather--pollen count are 8-11 on a 1-12 scale. supposed to maybe get some tstorms tomorrow and then be cooled off for fri/sat.
I'm pretty sure I read (maybe the 11:00) discussion - said Earl would be xtratropical in four days.

Huh? Then, he's gonna have to put the pedal down!

I do think if the trough ever gets here, that Earl will look like he's been shot out of a cannon, but as the trough becomes more tilted, sorry, still not buying into it just yet.

Not scare tactics, not doomcasting; but frankly, really, I think folks along the eastern seaboard should be a bit scared. This storms does NOT have to make landfall to be deadly, to be catastrophic.
HurricaneEarl's heading had turned westward to 11.4degrees west of NorthWest
from its previous heading of 6.6degrees west of NorthNorthWest
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~20.7mph(~33.3km/h

31Aug . 03amGMT - - 19.9n65.8w - - 135mph - - 938mb - -NHC.Adv. #23
31Aug . 06amGMT - - 19.9n66.2w - - 135mph - - 933mb - - #23A
31Aug . 09amGMT - - 20.5n66.7w - - 135mph - - 931mb - - #24
31Aug . 12pmGMT - - 20.7n67.2w - - 135mph - - 931mb - - #24A
31Aug . 03pmGMT - - 21.2n67.9w - - 135mph - - 939mb - - #25
31Aug . 06pmGMT - - 21.5n68.5w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #25A
31Aug . 09pmGMT - - 22.0n68.8w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #26
01Sept . 12amGMT - - 22.5n69.1w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #26A
01Sept . 03amGMT - - 23.0n69.9w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #27

Copy&paste 19.9n65.8w, 19.9n66.2w, 20.5n66.7w, 20.7n67.2w, 21.2n67.9w-21.5n68.5w, 21.5n68.5w-22.0n68.8w, 22.0n68.8w-22.5n69.1w, 22.5n69.1w-23.0n69.9w, jax, 23.0n69.9w-29.24n81.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~35hours from now to DaytonaBeach,Florida
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1596
Moonlight, you sound like someone loaded with some knowledge. Would you mind helping a newbie out and give your take on post 1513. All i have seen is watch out when something hits the caribbean, so why wouldn't it really take hold should that scenario happen. Thank you for your thoughts.
1616. JRRP
Evening folks.

What is the latest heading in degrees for Earl?
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 58.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 73.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 37.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 17 sec
Average Period (APD): 10.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 118 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.95 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.54 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °
1619. JRRP
40, -74.

Since mid June, the pattern has been good sized low pressure systems coming across Ohio and Penn that fall apart over the fall line at the NJ border and evaporate by the time they reach the coast. So not much comfort here in wishing the low will push Earl out to sea. If it arrives on time it may still have enough push in Md. and Dela.

As P-451 noted earlier the water temps are much warmer off shore than normal.

Our inlets are small and back bays large so a close shave will get us coming and going.

The faster this thing is the less time we are pounded. If it's close in shore a fast forward speed bodes ill for LI., and Conn.

98L looks pretty menacing, could he be a Caribbean tracker?