WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Earl Lingering Over Mexico; New Disturbance Will Bring Heavy Rains to Southeast U.S.

By: Jeff Masters 3:04 PM GMT on August 05, 2016

Tropical Storm Earl was clinging to tropical storm status on Friday morning, as its center skirted the southern coast of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Earl is still a major rainfall threat, but so far the torrential destructive rains that were feared from the storm have not materialized. Twenty-four hour rainfall amounts in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula ending at 8 am EDT August 4 were less than three inches, according to Conagua, the Mexican weather service. Heavy rains of up to seven inches were measured in Chiapas in the 24 hours ending at 8 am EDT Friday.

Heavy damage to buildings and infrastructure is being reported in Belize, primarily from Earl's winds and storm surge. Earl made landfall near Belize City, Belize as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds near 2 am EDT Thursday, August 4, 2016. Most of the weather stations in Earl's path stopped transmitting before the storm's peak winds arrived, but Half Moon Caye, which received a battering from a portion of Earl's northern eyewall, recorded a wind gust of 89 mph at 10:00 pm local time Wednesday.


Figure 1. Floodwaters from Earl's heavy rains collapsed a bridge near the Belize/Guatemala border in Melchor de Mencos, Petén, Guatemala. Photo: CONRED (Guatemala civil defense agency), via Norman Avila.


Figure 2. VIIRS image of Tropical Storm Earl approaching landfall in Belize on Wednesday afternoon, August 3, 2016. Image credit: NOAA Satellites on Twitter.

Earl's rains continue
Satellite loops and radar imagery from Mexico on Friday morning showed Earl was still generating heavy thunderstorms over portions of southern Mexico. Earl will continue moving on a mostly westward track at 10 - 15 mph over the next few days, and will likely dissipate by Saturday. Earl's remnants have the potential to merge with an area of disturbed weather and re-organize into a tropical depression over the waters off the Pacific coast of Mexico southwest of Puerto Vallarta in the Monday - Wednesday time frame, though. In their 8 am EDT Friday Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the remnants of Earl 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40% and 70%, respectively. The 00Z Friday run of the European model predicted that Earl's remnants would regenerate into a tropical storm that would bring heavy rains to the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Friday, August 12, 2016. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (bright orange colors) are expected along a stretch of the Gulf Coast from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa, Florida. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A broad surface low pressure system is forecast to develop near the coast of Alabama by Sunday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will bring a moist flow of air over the coast from Alabama to Tampa, resulting in heavy rains. In their 00Z Friday runs, about 40 - 60% of the members of the European and GFS model ensemble forecasts predicted that this low could develop into a tropical depression sometime Monday through Wednesday, and drift slowly northwards or northeastwards--inland over the Southeast U.S. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this future disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively. Regardless of development, coastal regions from New Orleans to Tampa can expect heavy rains exceeding five inches during the coming week, as highlighted in the latest precipitation forecast from NOAA (Figure 3.) Water temperatures in the northeast Gulf of Mexico are at near-record warm levels, and the evaporation from these warm waters will provide plenty of moisture to fuel heavy rains.

Tropical storms Ivette and Omais active in the Pacific
The Eastern Pacific continues to be active, with Tropical Storm Ivette in the Pacific waters southwest of the Mexican coast. Ivette will be moving away from the Mexican coast on a west to west-northwest track, and is expected to find less favorable atmospheric conditions over the weekend, dying out well before reaching Hawaii.

In the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Storm Omais formed on Thursday, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 typhoon this weekend as it moves northwards a few hundred miles east of Japan. Omais is not expected to affect any land areas as a tropical cyclone.

Bob Henson will be back this afternoon with a post on the long-range Atlantic hurricane season outlook.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1. washingtonian115:




Nice !
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting 1. washingtonian115:



Earl didn't break up the hot tub much, still quite the hot tub.
Water Temps in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Bend is in the Upper 80s to low 90s in some spots here and there, with the wind shear not expected to be that bad, with a group of thunderstorms over these conditions, it wouldn't be surprising a good low forms and tries to develop into something.
Thanks for the read Dr.M. Earl is gonna be a nuisance to Southern Mexico the next couple of days, especially after this brief dip into the GOM.
CaribBoy:

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you tomorrow. Looks like the best chance for any rain for at least the next week!

-L
Earl tracked on the southern edge of the boiler, the true feel of the hot waters are right under Cuba, Earl managed to get some of the warm waters, but the real hot water.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Quoting 2. CaribBoy:



Nice !
Heat content is pretty high in the Eastern Caribbean. We should keep a watchful eye at anything that comes our way from here on.
I wish we could ship this expected rain event over to the SE FL coast, since we really don't need it over here on the SW side. I picked up another half inch this morning and my backyard has been squishy for weeks.

Walked Siesta Key Beach Wednesday night and the water temp was 89F. There's a lot of rocket fuel out there.
Quoting 411. nrtiwlnvragn:






It was interesting to be in SE FL and observe first hand the phenomenon many bloggers have described, and which is the main contributing factor to that yellow strip down the east coast. It was fascinating to observe the clouds pouring rain out west near University Drive, while east, over US 1, I-95 and even State Road 7, it was totally dry. There were only a couple of days when it rained across the entire Broward County area.
Myakka River State Park has closed due to flooding.

Link
(from previous blog)
Quoting 479. BahaHurican:

Mik, the pics are not showing up .... :o(


Darn. You're not the 1st to bring that to my attention either.
Some folks must be seeing them - I'm getting pluses.
I'm assuming it's just the ones I upload through Google Photos.
I mean, like all the sneaker wave stuff is showing up, right?
Man, if anybody's got any suggestions, I'm all ears.
Looks like Earl will have the second and final landfall later this evening.
Public Information Statement
675
NOUS42 KJAX 050125
PNSJAX
FLZ124-050530-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
925 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...EF1 Tornado Confirmed Near Yulee in Nassau County Florida...

Location...Yulee in Nassau County Florida
Date...August 4th 2016
Start Time...140 PM
End Time...157 PM
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF1
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...90-100 MPH
Maximum Path Width...200 yards
Path Length...4.25 miles
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

...Summary...
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville FL has confirmed a
tornado near Yulee in Nassau County Florida on August 4th 2016.

Snapped trees were noted just north of Lofton Creek along Avant
Road, with significant tree and some damage to shingles taking
place in the Meadowfield Bluff subdivision as the tornado
progressed northward. The tornado flipped an unanchored structure
just south of State Road 200, or A1A, on the property of Yulee
United Methodist Church. The tornado reached its peak intensity,
estimated near 100 mph, along A1A as it flipped a semi-tractor
trailer on its side. The tornado continued northward, crossing
Gene Lassere Boulevard, where it flipped unanchored truck trailers
at RDL logistics facility. The tornado caused significant tree and
shingle damage to a few homes along Pages Dairy Road before it
lifted and dissipated. Nassau County Emergency Management
estimates damage to 40-50 homes, concentrated in the Meadowfield
Bluff subdivision.

This information can also be found on our website at
weather.gov/jax.

For reference...the Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes
into the following categories:

EF0...wind speeds 65 to 85 mph.
EF1...wind speeds 86 to 110 mph.
EF2...wind speeds 111 to 135 mph.
EF3...wind speeds 136 to 165 mph.
EF4...wind speeds 166 to 200 mph.
EF5...wind speeds greater than 200 mph.

$$

BN/JH/AK



Video of an EF1 tornado and damage in Yulee, Florida yesterday
Link

Quoting 11. flbeachgirl:

I wish we could ship this expected rain event over to the SE FL coast, since we really don't need it over here on the SW side. I picked up another half inch this morning and my backyard has been squishy for weeks.

Walked Siesta Key Beach Wednesday night and the water temp was 89F. There's a lot of rocket fuel out there.


Florida is the only place where I have gone swimming at the beach and come out of the water to cool off. (Bonita Beach 1981)
Boring?
Quoting 14. mikatnight:

(from previous blog)
Quoting 479. BahaHurican:

Mik, the pics are not showing up .... :o(


Darn. You're not the 1st to bring that to my attention either.
Some folks must be seeing them - I'm getting pluses.
I'm assuming it's just the ones I upload through Google Photos.
I mean, like all the sneaker wave stuff is showing up, right?
Man, if anybody's got any suggestions, I'm all ears.
Yeah, it's the google ones.... I even tried loading it to a new tab, with no luck.
:o(
I don't use GooglePics, so I'm not quite sure what to do. I do know imgur has a special link that works here while the others don't; maybe that's what you need from GooPics ...
Quoting 4. HurricaneFan:


Earl didn't break up the hot tub much, still quite the hot tub.


Hi

Three reasons for that. First, Earl merely skirted the lower demarcation line of the very high heat content without really ever going through it. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, Earl was not a particularly strong system and was not able to create a lot of upwelling such as a major system would have done. Finally,it also never spent a long time in the area notwithstanding a couple of periods of slow movement.

Net result ?. Lots of heat content remaining untouched just waiting for the next system to come along.
Quoting 22. kmanislander:



Hi

Three reasons for that. First, Earl merely skirted the lower demarcation line of the very high heat content without really ever going through it. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, Earl was not a particularly strong system and was not able to create a lot of upwelling such as a major system would have done. Finally,it also never spent a long time in the area notwithstanding a couple of periods of slow movement.

Net result ?. Lots of heat content remaining untouched just waiting for the next system to come along.
I keep thinking that Earl would have been a very different storm indeed if it had slowed down after entering the Caribbean ... that lack of formation prior to Jamaica kept it out of that higher TCHP area.
ICYMI, I recently updated my NCEI/NCAR Reanalysis Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to include July 2016 data. The 2015-16 Super NINO is officially over and cold ENSO neutral conditions currently prevail over the tropical Pacific, with the latest June-July ranking coming within 6 ranks of the La Nina threshold (lowest 30th percentile). Aside from the various adjustments and advantages I mentioned in the text file with my index over Klaus Wolter's original MEI, monthly NCEI/NCAR Reanalysis usually updates more regularly and faster than IOCADS. A revised index to Klaus Wolter & Michael Timlin's Extended MEI (MEI.ext) is currently in construction and will include all of the adjustments applied to NCEI/NCAR R1 & a few others that account for spurious pre-1950 PC projection and time-varying relative uncertainties/variance in the SLP & SST reconstructions.
Link



Utilization of a higher resolution dataset, principal components infused with more data (it's worth noting that 3 of the 4 strongest ENSO events in the modern era (1997-98, 2010-11, & 2015-16) have occurred within the last 25 years, Wolter's PCs only use CODAS data from 1950-1993 to construct the PCs for the original MEI), inflation of variables that explain more variance in the MEI, & the exclusion of spatial clustering (since NCEI/NCAR R1 is globally complete) & inclusion of precipitation are the most likely sources of the discrepancies that exist between these indices. The 1950-MJ 2016 correlation between the original (adjusted (i.e. w/ 30-yr sliding base periods)) MEI & NCEI/NCAR MEI is .9606, wrt Wolter's MEI this r value is higher than almost all ENSO indices (ENS ONI, BEST, CTI, JMA SST Index, SOI20CR, Jones SOI, HADISST NINO 4, 3.4, 3, 1-2) except for Wolter's Extended MEI (MEI.ext)...

Color-coded NCEI/NCAR Reanalysis MEI rankings (1948-Present)
Amazingly, the 2010-11 NINA holds the record the lowest MEI value for 10 of the 12 bi-monthly periods. The SLP PC of this event was insane, wrt it actually edged out the positive anomaly observed in 1982-83 with ~ -3.03 sigma in June 2010, which is nearly 1 sigma lower than any other NINA event on record... Wow!
Maroon (ranks 1-3) = Super El Nino
Red (ranks 4-7) = Strong El Nino
Orange (ranks 8-14) = Moderate El Nino
Yellow-orange (ranks 15-21) = Weak El Nino
Normal text (ranks 22-47)= Neutral ENSO
Very light blue (ranks 48-54) = Weak La Nina
Light blue (ranks 55-61) = Moderate La Nina
Blue (ranks 62-66) = Strong La Nina
Dark blue (ranks 67-69) = Super La Nina





Thanks Dr. Masters, I hope the rain predictions do not happen on Alabama's Gulf Coast. Most of downtown Mobile will flood if it does. Maybe it will go East and soak the Eastern side of Fl.
I don't see much to move any developing system in the northern Gulf. As I mentioned a few days ago, it could be a very serious setup. I believe that the current rainfall estimates are too conservative. The ECMWF is calling for an excess of possibly 20 inches in the Southeast US. I normally don't hype any system, but I do believe this area should be watched carefully.
Quoting 11. flbeachgirl:

I wish we could ship this expected rain event over to the SE FL coast, since we really don't need it over here on the SW side. I picked up another half inch this morning and my backyard has been squishy for weeks.

Walked Siesta Key Beach Wednesday night and the water temp was 89F. There's a lot of rocket fuel out there.


The good thing about it is that according to the Natives' Legend back in the 1500's ,THERE never ever hit a Hurricane in Sarasota and they were right !! However be ready for a lot of local urban roads flooded .
What's the big cloudy and stormy looking area hovering around 85W 20N at the moment? Is that the remnants of 96L or something? Presumably it is going to bring a lot of rain to the Yucatan peninsula in a day or two; might be very wet, and hazardous ...
Good rains in St.Thomas today not sure how much but its still coming down as usual the PR radar is down
Quoting 27. Grothar:

I don't see much to move any developing system in the northern Gulf. As I mentioned a few days ago, it could be a very serious setup. I believe that the current rainfall estimates are too conservative. The ECMWF is calling for an excess of possibly 20 inches in the Southeast US. I normally don't hype any system, but I do believe this area should be watched carefully.
Even if this doesn't become a genuine tropical system or only a TD, the rainfall / flooding threat seems to be prodigious .....
All the current basin trends are in the NHC discussion.

Its always a good idea to read it first here.
Quoting 29. JCheevorLoophole42:

What's the big cloudy and stormy looking area hovering around 85W 20N at the moment? Is that the remnants of 96L or something? Presumably it is going to bring a lot of rain to the Yucatan peninsula in a day or two; might be very wet, and hazardous ...
IIRC, it's part of a larger gyre which encompasses both TS Earl and an area similar to it in the EPac. The NHC is thinking the EPac portion will combine with Earl's remnants to potentially create another storm on that side of Mexico. Some bloggers here are thinking some of the moisture from the 84W 20N blob will feed the potential development of a system in the extreme NE GoM ....
No development on the 12z GFS.




Huh they are sending another HH into Earl, thats fun.
Quoting 27. Grothar:

I don't see much to move any developing system in the northern Gulf. As I mentioned a few days ago, it could be a very serious setup. I believe that the current rainfall estimates are too conservative. The ECMWF is calling for an excess of possibly 20 inches in the Southeast US. I normally don't hype any system, but I do believe this area should be watched carefully.

I would have to agree. PW's exceeding 2 inches along with training development can yield amazing rainfall totals-- in a hurry!
Quoting 23. BahaHurican:

I keep thinking that Earl would have been a very different storm indeed if it had slowed down after entering the Caribbean ... that lack of formation prior to Jamaica kept it out of that higher TCHP area.


Forward speed prevented Earl from closing off just East of the islands. If that had happened there is little doubt in my mind that it could easily have become a major in the Western Caribbean. The other saving grace was the steering from the strong sub tropical ridge. If the track had been WNW through the NW Caribbean into the GOM with weaker steering ( and slower forward speed as a result ) it would have been a very different scenario with potentially catastrophic consequences.

I see this season as potentially one of the most dangerous since the very active period around 2005.
Quoting 33. Patrap:

All the current basin trends are in the NHC discussion.

Its always a good idea to read it first here.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Anticyclonic flow over the west Caribbean is associated with
Tropical Storm Earl while an upper ridge anchored in the
Tropical Atlantic covers the east Caribbean. An upper low is
centered just north of the Turks and Caicos and extending south
over the north-central Caribbean from east Cuba to over
Hispaniola. The upper ridge associated with Earl is providing
diffluence aloft to generate scattered to numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms from 13N-19N between 79W-85W including
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms dot the remainder of the west Caribbean
south of 20N west of 76W. The upper ridge over the east
Caribbean is enhancing the activity associated with the tropical
wave. Tropical Storm Earl will continue to move away from the
Caribbean basin. The associated winds will continue to diminish
and the seas subside through the morning. The tropical wave over
the east Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean tonight and
the west Caribbean Saturday night. A second tropical wave will
enter the east Caribbean on Saturday.

EDIT:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1025
mb high east of the Azores with a ridge axis extending through
32N34W 28N43W then west to a 1021 mb high near 27N55W continuing
west across south Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge
will persist into the weekend. The north portion of the tropical
waves will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the
Greater Antilles through Saturday night.
Quoting 27. Grothar:

I don't see much to move any developing system in the northern Gulf. As I mentioned a few days ago, it could be a very serious setup. I believe that the current rainfall estimates are too conservative. The ECMWF is calling for an excess of possibly 20 inches in the Southeast US. I normally don't hype any system, but I do believe this area should be watched carefully.
Good morning Gro, are we looking at a possible developing low in the Northern Gulf camping out for a few days over water?
Latest advisory on Omais from WFO Guam
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051447
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAIS (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072016
200 AM CHST SAT AUG 6 2016

...TROPICAL STORM OMAIS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 147.5E

ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 345 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 545 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 670 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 415 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO ISLAND AND
ABOUT 420 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISHIMA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE...20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAIS
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.5 DEGREES EAST. OMAIS WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
OMAIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY...THEN TURN TO A
MORE NORTHWEST TRACK ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. OMAIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHEN IT COULD BRIEFLY BE UPGRADED TO A TYPHOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND OUT TO 280 MILES IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM.
Quoting 19. nocanesplease:

Boring?

11 years and counting!
I would also like to repeat once more my appreciation of the Air Force for the stellar work they did in Earl, especially that final run with the system bearing down on the coast. That must have been very fatiguing over a prolonged period near land and in a system that was intensifying. Pass after pass checking for pressure falls and intensification rate.
That was something special to watch.



Quoting 37. VAbeachhurricanes:

Huh they are sending another HH into Earl, thats fun.


It is blowing up rather strongly, which is mainly only a concern rain wise at this point.
Quoting 39. kmanislander:



Forward speed prevented Earl from closing off just East of the islands. If that had happened there is little doubt in my mind that it could easily have become a major in the Western Caribbean. The other saving grace was the steering from the strong sub tropical ridge. If the track had been WNW through the NW Caribbean into the GOM with weaker steering ( and slower forward speed as a result ) it would have been a very different scenario with potentially catastrophic consequences.

I see this season as potentially one of the most dangerous since the very active period around 2005.
Completely agree with this. It's been fairly quite aside from Earl since July started; unfortunately I don't think that quietude will continue. I expect September and October to be quite active, as IMO all the conditions which have been hindering development so far, in particular this rather aggressive high, will modulate. I already note today that the Azores high is down to 1025 from the 1030 or so it has been off and on for the last two weeks. Additionally, this potential Gulf system is implying that we may begin to see some weakness in the ridge that's been set up from NE of the Bahamas well towards Texas for the last little while.

Quoting 42. Patrap:


Good morning Pat, what does this map show ?
Quoting 46. kmanislander:

I would also like to repeat once more my appreciation of the Air Force for the stellar work they did in Earl, especially that final run with the system bearing down on the coast. That must have been very fatiguing over a prolonged period near land and in a system that was intensifying. Pass after pass checking for pressure falls and intensification rate.
That was something special to watch.







NOAA HH as well.
hMMM
The NWS still wants to form a low inland and keeps it out of the GOM.
Note the surface trof in the Neast Gom.



Quoting 50. Patrap:




NOAA HH as well.


What I meant was all those who fly into those systems but in particular that last run. They all demonstrate the same exemplary approach to duty and take a lot punishment in the process.
Quoting 29. JCheevorLoophole42:

What's the big cloudy and stormy looking area hovering around 85W 20N at the moment? Is that the remnants of 96L or something? Presumably it is going to bring a lot of rain to the Yucatan peninsula in a day or two; might be very wet, and hazardous ...
being sheared n ne ward

thanks for update doc nice lunch time read
flooding rains ne gulf coast with maybe a touch of tropical storminess to boot
Quoting 27. Grothar:

I don't see much to move any developing system in the northern Gulf. As I mentioned a few days ago, it could be a very serious setup. I believe that the current rainfall estimates are too conservative. The ECMWF is calling for an excess of possibly 20 inches in the Southeast US. I normally don't hype any system, but I do believe this area should be watched carefully.

Excessive rain caster ;-)
Quoting 51. bigwes6844:

hMMM


This should be made 98L soon
Regarding rain along Gulf Coast...I've already received 3.36" rain since 1 August at my house - I know it's rained more than that in town (Pensacola) and Gulf Breeze so if we get more from this developing system off Alabama coast, there will be flooding around here for sure!
Quoting 57. Greg01:


Excessive rain caster ;-)
I read a story from down there this week of a death of a dancing flamingo it made me very angry

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_late stBW.gif
Quoting 39. kmanislander:



Forward speed prevented Earl from closing off just East of the islands. If that had happened there is little doubt in my mind that it could easily have become a major in the Western Caribbean. The other saving grace was the steering from the strong sub tropical ridge. If the track had been WNW through the NW Caribbean into the GOM with weaker steering ( and slower forward speed as a result ) it would have been a very different scenario with potentially catastrophic consequences.

I see this season as potentially one of the most dangerous since the very active period around 2005.
I agree. Some of the ingredients are already in place and the current oceanic heat content could be problematic down the road. This is also exactly what WKC was concerned with. If you haven't done so already, I think all the island residents need to already be prepared, have a plan in place and stay vigilant.
To live in a Hurricane prone area anywhere,and being August,one should already have a plan,supplies,and a evac destination.


Moisture will eventually spread to the north and affect most of the S.E. U.S.
Quoting 43. scott39:

Good morning Gro, are we looking at a possible developing low in the Northern Gulf camping out for a few days over water?


It would seem so. There doesn't seem to be much to move anything quickly if something does form. We will have to wait for the impulse to drop into the Gulf in a few days. As you know, when these systems move back into the Atlantic, they often spin up again and reform off the coast.
Quoting 62. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I read a story from down there this week of a death of a dancing flamingo it made me very angry
I just read it and had the same reaction. Absolutely senseless and horrible.
Not impressive looking, but maybe it will become something quicker than former invest 97-L ,LOL=)
Quoting 69. Climate175:


More west coast action while the east coast stays dry....
Quoting 66. Sfloridacat5:

Moisture will eventually spread to the north and affect most of the S.E. U.S.


Rain,that's all.
The chance is increasing on this probability graphic, it is now at 49%, which is almost now a 50/50 chance, and that changed from 22% last evening, and also a new area north of the Bahamas at a 12% chance, the chance of something there is low as of right now, models have been depicting a low to form there in the coming days.
Oh no,the blob near Honduras is gone.
Quoting 68. Llamaluvr:

I just read it and had the same reaction. Absolutely senseless and horrible.
if I was on his cell block I make him dance like forever
Quoting 74. Climate175:

The chance is increasing on this probability graphic, it is now at 49%, which is almost now a 50/50 chance, and that changed from 22% last evening, and also a new area north of the Bahamas at a 12% chance, the chance of something there is low as of right now, models have been depicting a low to form there in the coming days.

Dr. Masters noted that 40-60% of the ensembles were forming this system into a tropical cyclone, so it will have to be monitored closely. Even if it does not develop it could be a serious rain-maker for northeastern Florida and the southeast.
Don't think this season will be anything or anywhere near 2005.


Not often we see 4 days in a row with a 70% chance of rain. Some areas could see up to 15" of rain.
Quoting 78. washingtonian115:

Don't think this season will be anything or anywhere near 2005.


Totally agree.
Was excited that the kids where heading back to school and finally able to have some 'me time' and work on my tan in peace.... sigh, maybe the next week.
CMC takes that 12% chance I just showed and takes it northward and then straight westward toward Florida as a 998mb low, only model doing it at this time, so take it very very lightly.
Quoting 69. Climate175:



Too close to land,so maybe a TD and nothing else.
Quoting 78. washingtonian115:

Don't think this season will be anything or anywhere near 2005.

Agreed. While I think we will see an above average season, I'm not expecting anything close to 2005. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 14-16 named storms is what I am expecting.
Quoting 69. Climate175:


All together please now, "NO SPIN NO SPIN NO SPIN...."
Flash flood kills four people, eleven missing in Lao Cai
DTI News - August 5.
Foreign tourists trapped as flash flood sweeps northern Vietnam
Tuoi Tre News - August 5.
The circulation of storm Nida, which hit Vietnam on Tuesday, has caused prolonged downpours in vast areas of Lao Cai Province since Thursday evening, resulting in the flash flood this morning.
Quoting 83. blobblobfan:


Too close to land,so maybe a TD and nothing else.
sometimes things happen
Not wx related: just read that a Bahamian woman was shot and killed in Atlanta .... while driving yesterday morning.

Ironically, on the same page there was a story about twin babies' death after being left in a car .... bringing the toll for that type of death to more than twice last year's number at this point .,...

Sad news.
Quoting 74. Climate175:

The chance is increasing on this probability graphic, it is now at 49%, which is almost now a 50/50 chance, and that changed from 22% last evening, and also a new area north of the Bahamas at a 12% chance, the chance of something there is low as of right now, models have been depicting a low to form there in the coming days.
What's the chance of the 12% reflecting the possibility of that Twave passing through the eastern Antilles tomorrow being the source of development?
Quoting 61. gulfbeachgal:
Regarding rain along Gulf Coast...I've already received 3.36" rain since 1 August at my house - I know it's rained more than that in town (Pensacola) and Gulf Breeze so if we get more from this developing system off Alabama coast, there will be flooding around here for sure!


Yeah we're definitely not at a shortage of rain in our area. I was gone for a week and had 2.25" in the rain gauge when I got home Monday. Emptied it and that night picked up another 2.5". Again Wednesday night we had rain, I haven't checked to see how much rain we got that night.
Quoting 87. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sometimes things happen
Really!? You are going to throw that out into the universe?! I only ask for a few days notice to pack up and evacuate in an orderly manner. I do not need a TC going RI over the top of my head!
Quoting 89. BahaHurican:

What's the chance of the 12% reflecting the possibility of that Twave passing through the eastern Antilles tomorrow being the source of development?
I can see why there was a slight chance given to it, due to the conditions in the Bahamas and surrounding area forecast over the coming days, we have to eye it for now, until there is a reason to look more into it.
Quite a spread between the operational and ensembles with the CHI anomaly...this is why I never believe MJO forecasts. The MJO was supposed to make the Atlantic active in July, and we all know that never happened. Instead, the exact opposite took place with lots of sinking air.

Quoting 91. JNFlori30A:

Really!? You are going to throw that out into the universe?! I only ask for a few days notice to pack up and evacuate in an orderly manner. I do not need a TC going RI over the top of my head!

Over reacting.
Quoting 78. washingtonian115:

Don't think this season will be anything or anywhere near 2005.
I don't think we'll see anything like 2005 for a long time .... look at the interval between it and 1933 ...

I do think the chances of multiple major strikes across the basin, especially into central America, the Gulf and Florida, are as high as we've seen since then, however. The only other year I can think of where the danger was as high since then is 2008, with its multiple strikes across the basin. While other individual storms, like Sandy and Joaquin, have been dangerous, they occurred in otherwise mostly undevastating seasons.

Of course, a lot of this depends on the frequency and track of troughs as the season progresses.
Quoting 28. aussiecold:



The good thing about it is that according to the Natives' Legend back in the 1500's ,THERE never ever hit a Hurricane in Sarasota and they were right !! However be ready for a lot of local urban roads flooded .


When I refer to "Sarasota," I mean the whole county, not just the very small incorporated area that makes up the City of Sarasota proper. Most of us who live outside the city limits still have a Sarasota address.

Sarasota County has been impacted - mostly indirectly but directly a few times - by over 60 tropical cyclones since 1871.

The Unnamed 1944 Hurricane made a direct hit on Sarasota County as a Cat 3. Tropical Storm Gabrielle also made a direct hit in 2001.

The indirect hit of the 1948 Great Gale (Tampa Bay) Hurricane forever altered the landscape of Sarasota, when it cut a pass through what was then called Palm Island, creating two new islands - Lido Key and Longboat Key.

We're grateful we don't have a lot of direct hits (thank you, Tampa Shield!), but even indirect hits can cause millions of dollars of damage.

Quoting 92. Climate175:

I can see why there was a slight chance given to it, due to the conditions in the Bahamas and surrounding area forecast over the coming days, we have to eye it for now, until there is a reason to look more into it.
From that area out to our east down to the Bay of Honduras there is a swath of warm water that is more than capable of fueling rapid development and intensification. The bigger question is, will we get a building [buildable?] low in there? With all the talk about "home-grown development".....
Quoting 98. Grothar:


Looks like some heavy rains in the Tampico to Veracruz coastal area ... even though Earl's COC is just barely out along the S coast of the Gulf ....
Quoting 98. Grothar:


Looks like a slightly more active period, too. So which of the two MJO forecasts is going to verify, the GFS or the GEFS?
Quoting 93. HurricaneFan:

Quite a spread between the operational and ensembles with the CHI anomaly...this is why I never believe MJO forecasts. The MJO was supposed to make the Atlantic active in July, and we all know that never happened. Instead, the exact opposite took place with lots of sinking air.




Yeah it seems to me that the MJO forecast tools are wrong 80% of the time at least. They only seem to be able to predict a regular propagation of the signal and that almost never happens these days!
Quoting 102. EyewallPaul:



Yeah it seems to me that the MJO forecast tools are wrong 80% of the time at least. They only seem to be able to predict a regular propagation of the signal and that almost never happens these days!
The more interesting thing about the MJO maps is that they both forecast suppressed motion over the African continent .... so what happens to the AEWs ???? Do we get a break, or are they just wimpier than they have been so far?
12z UKMET still has the low forming in the NE Gulf.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Earl, located over the southern Bay of Campeche.

1. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible while it meanders
near the coast of the Florida panhandle during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila
Quoting 94. blobblobfan:


Over reacting.
Glad we have an understanding. Looks like this is your first season here. How are you enjoying the blog?
Quoting 105. Climate175:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Earl, located over the southern Bay of Campeche.

1. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible while it meanders
near the coast of the Florida panhandle during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila

Now that it is mentioned in the 48-hour outlook, it could be classified as Invest 98L very shortly.
Quoting 107. HurricaneFan:


Now that it is mentioned in the 48-hour outlook, it could be classified as Invest 98L very shortly.
Yes, I want to see how the spaghetti models deal with this.
Here is that 12z UKMET run.
Quoting 94. blobblobfan:


Over reacting.


Quoting 106. JNFlori30A:

Glad we have an understanding. Looks like this is your first season here. How are you enjoying the blog?

Very funny people.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 37m
Only game in town for Atlantic genesis is a trough in the NE Gulf of Mex- these things usually need to cook awhile
WRF Model.
Quoting 104. Climate175:

12z UKMET still has the low forming in the NE Gulf.


Not nearly as strong as last nights run, trending weaker each run.
Quoting 104. Climate175:

12z UKMET still has the low forming in the NE Gulf.

Ukmet,GFS, ECW,etc,I'm still trust NHC.
Quoting 114. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Not nearly as strong as last nights run, trending weaker each run.
Yea, not that strong as before.
Quoting 103. BahaHurican:

The more interesting thing about the MJO maps is that they both forecast suppressed motion over the African continent .... so what happens to the AEWs ???? Do we get a break, or are they just wimpier than they have been so far?


To be honest I don't know. I think they are still present in the atmosphere but just ripple past without exciting much convection
Quoting 65. Patrap:

To live in a Hurricane prone area anywhere,and being August,one should already have a plan,supplies,and a evac destination.




Completely Agree. When it is August I just expect there to be sometime of system always nearby regardless of long range models.
Quoting 113. Climate175:

WRF Model.


Rotate some of that rain across the state to the east coast. We could use it!
Through 72 hours 12z Euro puts low on land over Florida and does nothing with it, big rain maker though named or not there will be impacts.
96 hrs.


IMO the NE GOM is not yet ready for a Gro blob designation....
Quoting 120. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Through 72 hours 12z Euro puts low on land over Florida and does nothing with it, big rain maker though named or not there will be impacts.

I wonder if the models are having difficulty where the low will develop as they are seeming to change position slightly each run. This seems like a complex weather situation. I would watch very carefully where the low develops and moves if it stays over the Gulf it could deepen and pull more moisture up.
Quoting 123. sporteguy03:


I wonder if the models are having difficulty where the low will develop as they are seeming to change position slightly each run. This seems like a complex weather situation. I would watch very carefully where the low develops and moves if it stays over the Gulf it could deepen and pull more moisture up.


That could be true and it is certainly a complex situation, would like this to be an invest to see how other models handle it, will continue to keep a close eye on it. The rains are coming for the southeast regardless of an organized system or not.
12z GFS Ensembles.
Quoting 123. sporteguy03:


I wonder if the models are having difficulty where the low will develop as they are seeming to change position slightly each run. This seems like a complex weather situation. I would watch very carefully where the low develops and moves if it stays over the Gulf it could deepen and pull more moisture up.


It would be a good idea to monitor the buoys and ship reports in the north central and Ne GOM, to get an idea as to where the barometric pressure is falling, and the center may form.
Disturbance over the NE GOM looks to be developing a surface circulation on satellite imagery. Vorticity charts also support it as well.
128. IKE
Pressures in the NE GOM look about normal for now.
A clear spin in the tw south of the verdes. Sorry if i'm wrong.
Quoting 125. Climate175:

12z GFS Ensembles.

Those seems further West then the UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF.
Euro picking up on the 12% chance I was showing earlier with the probability graphic.
Quoting 122. GetReal:



IMO the NE GOM is not yet ready for a Gro blob designation....

It appears that there is no rotation with this disturbance.
Quoting 133. hotroddan:


It appears that there is no rotation with this disturbance.

Not yet..in a few days while it sits it could usually these take a few days.
Earl still definitely a tropical storm, winds 50knts at flight level.
Euro seems to strengthen the low over Alabama/Georgia, maybe that might be a brown ocean effect.
Quoting 136. Climate175:

Euro seems to strengthen the low over Alabama/Georgia, maybe that might be a brown ocean effect.

Or, more likely, it's non-tropical.
Quoting 138. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Or, more likely, it's non-tropical.

We saw something like this happen with Erin in 2007. It peaked as a minimal tropical storm, but after it became non-tropical it developed an eye feature over Oklahoma and briefly had winds of near hurricane force.
Quoting 138. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Or, more likely, it's non-tropical.
Hmmm, interesting, non-tropical seems to be a better chance, too early, we'll see.
I think the low that the Euro is trying to form off the East coast in about a week is actually ex 96L
NHC will increase Earl's strength at 5. 53knt flight wind and lots of 45knt SFMR readings.
A lot of rain around the Bay area. Just the start of a very wet period.

Not even a hint of any organization as of yet in the NE GOM.
Quoting 97. flbeachgirl:



When I refer to "Sarasota," I mean the whole county, not just the very small incorporated area that makes up the City of Sarasota proper. Most of us who live outside the city limits still have a Sarasota address.

Sarasota County has been impacted - mostly indirectly but directly a few times - by over 60 tropical cyclones since 1871.

The Unnamed 1944 Hurricane made a direct hit on Sarasota County as a Cat 3. Tropical Storm Gabrielle also made a direct hit in 2001.

The indirect hit of the 1948 Great Gale (Tampa Bay) Hurricane forever altered the landscape of Sarasota, when it cut a pass through what was then called Palm Island, creating two new islands - Lido Key and Longboat Key.

We're grateful we don't have a lot of direct hits (thank you, Tampa Shield!), but even indirect hits can cause millions of dollars of damage.


Just calm down , I referred to Sarasota as a City ,not as a County, you were the one who talking about Siesta Beach ,that is located in the key just 5 miles away of the heart of the Town .So no Hurricane ever has crossed Sarasota City . P.
AF302 Mission #08 into EARL
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 18:58 UTC Aug 05, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 18.70°N 94.67°W
Bearing: 315° at 165 kt
Altitude: 1512 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 12 kt at 211°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A


Quoting 133. hotroddan:


It appears that there is no rotation with this disturbance.


There's a good chance the low will form over land where the NWS and some of the models have been hinting.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 139. HurricaneFan:


We saw something like this happen with Erin in 2007. It peaked as a minimal tropical storm, but after it became non-tropical it developed an eye feature over Oklahoma and briefly had winds of near hurricane force.

I am aware. However, I doubt that's what's being shown in the latest run of the Euro model.
Quoting 145. aussiecold:



Wow. Okay...if your narrow focus is strictly the city limits, then no, there hasn't been a "direct" hit on the "city." Like that matters...

SMH
AL, 05, 2016080512, , BEST, 0, 185N, 935W, 40, 1001, TS
AL, 05, 2016080518, , BEST, 0, 187N, 947W, 45, 1001, TS

Radar is doing a poor job today, NWS not picking the rain up well and WU's Storm app isn't particularly either, albeit better than the NWS.

On a related note, had a CC strike just 500 feet above my house. Super loud, thunder was almost instant.

Decently heavy rains now; heavier than the stuff out front that passed us a while ago.
Quoting 153. flbeachgirl:



Wow. Okay...if your narrow focus is strictly the city limits, then no, there hasn't been a "direct" hit on the "city." Like that matters...

SMH

Now we are in total agreement ,lol
Quoting 141. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I think the low that the Euro is trying to form off the East coast in about a week is actually ex 96L


QUITE AGREED...MOST LIKELY THE REMNANTS OF 96L IN A MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY RE-ORGANISE AND STRENGTHEN...

GOD BLESS!
159. vis0
Question for TLZ and/or Grothar whats the thought on the 3 stooges coming off Africa?

i know closer to home is tops and predictions 2 days ago stated nothing expected as to a serious Tropical spin till  ill 10 days but rainfall that might be better measured by yardsticks (usually reserved for Boston during winter snow) might start in a few days...i think Hammacher Schlemmer  has blue prints for noahs ark...TLZ stop pressing your abdomen didn;t say Heimlich...

To see 3 spins so close not affecting each other.

hmm they've broken up into 5 swirls ..skip 3 stooges they're now :"Family Circle"

here a couple of weird flashbacks::

image host image host


(for my sake-clicked post comment at 10:48:45s EDT)


160. vis0
image host


...doReMeFahSo lah-titude