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Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on September 04, 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.


Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Earl Waves
Hurricane Earl Waves
Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.
Earl The Pearl
Earl The Pearl
Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.
Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4
Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Thats Great , this Tells Us where you live which is South Texas.

Im Sorry Bub.

But this isnt going to be the cat 5 your wishcasting for.

huh u better be joking cause why would i need a cat 5 when i know its going to a ts at most geez
This Gaston guy is really playing with us...
As to its relationship with Puerto Rico, it reminds me of Jeanne. Jeanne didn't develop until she was over the Lesser Antilles, right about to come in to the Caribbean. Back then she went in two days from a TD to a 70mph Tropical Storm, really catching us off guard in Puerto Rico.
Keeping in mind that this year the TCHP is extremely high, off the charts for that matter, it would be irresponsible for anyone to write ex/re-Gaston off.
Storm, any thoughts?
2503. Vero1
Quoting Relix:
Hey StormW! I know you don't work on Sundays but I would really like your quick take on ex-Gaston. The track shouldn't be too hard. It's aiming at the NE islands, south or north, yet the intensity puzzles me. It's past 50W, now it has the break to form into something. The circulation is tight. What can we expect from strength?


If you go back a few pages in the blog and start reading you will find StormW's take on Gaston and More.
Quoting StormW:
I'll tell ya...if ignorance is bliss...then Dr. Masters blog is in ecstasy


Classic...
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Reflecting back on Hurricane Earl, I must admit that I was definitely impressed by the computer model performance and with the NHC forecasting with this storm. The NHC and computer models were pretty accurate on forecasting when the turn would take place. It seems as we progress in time and technology, track forecasts are becoming much improved. Now all that remains is to try and understand the conditions for intensifying and weakening better so that forecasters can better forecast changes in intensity.


I'm not so sure about that. Early model runs had Earl recurving near Bermuda, whereas it really recurved just off the US East Coast, a difference of about 610 miles.
Quoting fldude99:
Invest 90L is in the same place Opal began in '95..made a beeline for FL panhandle


That was definitely under different conditions. A powerful cold front swung down and turned the storm. The discussions now suggest this will probably a Northern Mexico thing. It is too early in the seasons for fronts to comedown and swing these storms to the NE. So we in the Panhandle should be OK barring some crazy event. Texas should watch 90L closely though.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Not a Florida Wishcaster.

Note My Cone goes under the Islands too. Also That Track could go through the florida straights or recurve before hitting florida.



I Think this Could Make Landfall on PR or DR


you are easily the biggest florida wishcaster on here. everything goes right to you or in your direction in florida and those are the only questions you ask. dont deny it, just admit it. ill admit i love hurricanes and love getting hit by them. no big deal.

just stop trying to deny it and embrace it, because you are giving people who think you know what you are talking about a terribly wrong idea as to what this system will do.
Quoting StormW:
I'll tell ya...if ignorance is bliss...then Dr. Masters blog is in ecstasy


rofl - thanks, I needed that this morning!
2509. luigi18
Quoting StormW:


Hello Dr Storm you think GASTONAAAA is heading our way here in PR Gastona she is a lady! have to be carefull!
0z Ukmet
120hrs

No big changes in the latest image.

Main thing to note is the overall improvement and persistence in convection, and the fact that the strongest blob of convection is becoming slightly better stacked with the LLC.

Even though 90L will head inland soon according to all the statistical and dynamical models, it always reminds one of Camille if one of these gulf storms was to sit and spin for a couple of days before moving north. Especially over the very warm waters!
2513. Grothar
Quoting Gearsts:
link?


To what? I have posted 6 different images.
The remnants of ex-Gaston are slowly trying to get better organized by developing some convection mainly to the west and south of the circulation (some convection trying to develop atop the circulation can be noted, let's see if it can continue the trend). It however will need more convective organization to get re-classified though.

Quoting cirrocumulus:
90L must be a depression by now!

.....nope, gonna have to wait another 12hrs,still at 60%,the eastern gom needs to be watched for some activity! !!
Quoting btwntx08:

huh u better be joking cause why would i need a cat 5 when i know its going to a ts at most geez


Agreed?

Here is this Decent?

To add to the previous:

The top 25 ACE seasons since 1851:

Source

(NB: Seasons before 1960 are likely to be undervalued in ACE and storm numbers due to minimal technology. Even Landsea notes that: "With the artificial jump in the 2000s in the frequency of short-lived systems, a more realistic estimate of the long-term climatology may be closer to 13 tropical storms and hurricanes per year." Given the quoted figure of 10-6-2 for 1950 onwards, adding 2-3 storms to each season prior to the 1950s in particular would probably be closer to the actual figure).

2005: 248 (28-15-7 - inc. one Subtropical storm, 27-15-7 for ACE purposes)
1950: 243 (13-11-8)
1893: 231 (12-10-5)
1995: 227 (19-11-5)
2004: 224 (15-9-6)
1926: 222 (11-8-6)
1933: 213 (21-10-5)
1961: 205 (11-8-7)
1955: 199 (12-9-6)
1887: 182 (19-11-2)
---
1998: 182 (14-10-3)
1878: 181 (12-10-2)
1999: 177 (12-8-5)
2003: 175 (16-7-3)
1964: 170 (12-6-6)
1886: 166 (12-10-4)
1996: 166 (13-9-6)
1906: 163 (11-6-3)
1969: 158 (18-12-5)
1899: 150 (9-5-2)* Half of this is one storm alone.
---
1980: 147 (11-9-2)
1966: 145 (11-7-3)
1916: 144 (15-10-5)
2008: 144 (16-8-5)
1951: 137 (10-8-5)
2518. Relix
Convection forming around Gaston's COC. Little by little.

Thanks Vero1, found StormW's take.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Agreed?

Here is this Decent?



good track:)
Quoting kingzfan104:


you are easily the biggest florida wishcaster on here. everything goes right to you or in your direction in florida and those are the only questions you ask. dont deny it, just admit it. ill admit i love hurricanes and love getting hit by them. no big deal.

just stop trying to deny it and embrace it, because you are giving people who think you know what you are talking about a terribly wrong idea as to what this system will do.

easy, easy... he has the right to post anything weather related. plus its not a bad track either
By the time the 2015 image comes out 6 hours from now, the center should be near 56.5W, and we will likely see almost the entire circulation overcast with strong convection.
Quoting kingzfan104:


you are easily the biggest florida wishcaster on here. everything goes right to you or in your direction in florida and those are the only questions you ask. dont deny it, just admit it. ill admit i love hurricanes and love getting hit by them. no big deal.

just stop trying to deny it and embrace it, because you are giving people who think you know what you are talking about a terribly wrong idea as to what this system will do.


Not at All.

Did i say Alex,Collin , Earl or Danielle were gonna hit South Florida? No.. Most of the Tracks i made took them out to sea.

I Did not Make a Track on Bonnie and Earl Looks like it will pass N or S of the Islands or On the Islands



The Only Reason i Put a little Nudge to the North of my Cone is that their might be a weakness later on.
Quoting Cotillion:
#2465

With ACE, 2010, largely due to Danielle and Earl, has got around 61. As mentioned in a post yesterday, Gaston would need to be a strong Cat 1 hurricane/minimal Cat 2 for a week or so to surpass 2006 (and 2002/07 which is lower). Let alone any help from 'friends'.

Whether it'll reach the giddy heights predicted, I'm not so sure. That would rely on one or two long trackers, with a strong storm or two in the Caribbean at least. Plausible, yes, but far from any certainty. The 25th highest ACE season was 1955 with 137. So, more than half off, but with the peak (cue the chart) to come.


Well, 1955's ACE was 199, making it the sixth strongest ACE season between 1950 and 2009.

We're a week away from the climatological peak of what promises to be a very back-loaded season. ACE went from under 10 to 60 in just 10 days (yes, mostly due to Danielle and Earl), meaning that such rapidly-increasing numbers are possible again...and especially once a couple of Cat 4s and Cat 5s start popping off in the Gulf and Caribbean. If we don't end 2010 with an ACE above 150, I'll be very surprised; 170+ seems about right to me.
Quoting kingzfan104:


you are easily the biggest florida wishcaster on here. everything goes right to you or in your direction in florida and those are the only questions you ask. dont deny it, just admit it. ill admit i love hurricanes and love getting hit by them. no big deal.

just stop trying to deny it and embrace it, because you are giving people who think you know what you are talking about a terribly wrong idea as to what this system will do.
,not even close,jeff941of orlando,ALWAYS says the tc is headed for fl's central east coast,lol
Quoting kingzfan104:


you are easily the biggest florida wishcaster on here. everything goes right to you or in your direction in florida and those are the only questions you ask. dont deny it, just admit it. ill admit i love hurricanes and love getting hit by them. no big deal.

just stop trying to deny it and embrace it, because you are giving people who think you know what you are talking about a terribly wrong idea as to what this system will do.
Sammywammybamy's not on my ignore list,but sometimes he can be out of iine.
Wow, pretty impressive pressure from the ATCF best track as of 12z for 90L.

AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB,

Ex-Gaston's pressure however continues to increase, and now the winds have decreased to 30mph.

AL, 09, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 168N, 500W, 25, 1009, LO,
I Think My Track on Gaston is Right On intill the Last Red Line Maybe:


My Track:



Computer Models:

Storm, it gets real depressing when you realize ignorance is how most people make it through their lives. To be fair, most people aren't interested in meteorology or climatology (or most other science, mathematical theory, and technology) beyond the "Oooh! Shiny!" and "It's all about me and mine!" aspects. People showing any interest at all beyond that are actually above average. Most, by fate or free will, are not.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sammywammybamy's not on my ignore list,but sometimes he can be out of iine.


He's definitely not one of the annoying ones or one of the JFV potentials.:0
Well looks like Gaston looking better today and to think someone here the other day here was sounding like he would go out with the FISH.
Quoting stillwaiting:
,not even close,jeff941of orlando,ALWAYS says the tc is headed for fl's central east coast,lol


absolutely, that guy is a joke. during bonnie he was hilarious. it was clearly coming straight to him apparently and earl ghad a very good chance to effect him as well.
Quoting stillwaiting:
.....nope, gonna have to wait another 12hrs,still at 60%,the eastern gom needs to be watched for some activity! !!


I think it must be a depression now or in a couple of hours because it is a little over land off and on. It has plenty of firepower over the warm waters so it must be a depression with the 1005 millibar low.
Quoting Grecojdw:


He's definitely not one of the annoying ones or one of the JFV potentials.:0


For two years I've read the references to JFV, can someone explain?
Quoting Grecojdw:


He's definitely not one of the annoying ones or one of the JFV potentials.:0


Lol Ive Been Here Since 2006.

Anyway Why is the Blog So Obbsesed with JFV?

I Dont Understand? He Lied about Having a Girlfriend.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Well, 1955's ACE was 199, making it the sixth strongest ACE season between 1950 and 2009.

We're a week away from the climatological peak of what promises to be a very back-loaded season. ACE went from under 10 to 60 in just 10 days (yes, mostly due to Danielle and Earl), meaning that such rapidly-increasing numbers are possible again...and especially once a couple of Cat 4s and Cat 5s start popping off in the Gulf and Caribbean. If we don't end 2010 with an ACE above 150, I'll be very surprised; 170+ seems about right to me.


You're correct regarding 1955, I meant 1951. 1955 is way higher (see the above list, now corrected).
ORCA.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, pretty impressive pressure from the ATCF best track as of 12z for 90L.

AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB,

Ex-Gaston's pressure however continues to increase, and now the winds have decreased to 30mph.

AL, 09, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 168N, 500W, 25, 1009, LO,
I'm impressed that the pressures are actually that low.Could see a possible depression late tonight or tomarrow.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


For two years I've read the references to JFV, can someone explain?


He's fodder for bored bloggers who have nothing to do when things are quiet.
Quoting sammywammybamy:

OK, thats not even fair...I have not even finished updating the darn things and your posting them :(
Quoting aislinnpaps:


For two years I've read the references to JFV, can someone explain?
...you really wanna know????,WU's most infamous troll
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Lol Ive Been Here Since 2006.

Anyway Why is the Blog So Obbsesed with JFV?

I Dont Understand? He Lied about Having a Girlfriend.


If you have enter encountered him in chat, you will understand why. I didn't believe it my self until I tried to do the real time thing in the chat area. He is in there some how some way constantly and ruins all the discussion about hurricane related items. After the last barrage of insults from him I decided not to ever go in there again.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, pretty impressive pressure from the ATCF best track as of 12z for 90L.

AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB,

Ex-Gaston's pressure however continues to increase, and now the winds have decreased to 30mph.

AL, 09, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 168N, 500W, 25, 1009, LO,
why, it looks like gaston is organizing? is that new?
Quoting StormW:


I know you're not talking of Gaston. Oh...and the forecast for more west type tracks isn't wrong. Obviously, you don't know how to read forecast patterns.

Oh...POOF!!!


Sometimes this site reminds me of the Bewitched TV series.

We're so elegant in our nose twitching.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, pretty impressive pressure from the ATCF best track as of 12z for 90L.

AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB,

Ex-Gaston's pressure however continues to increase, and now the winds have decreased to 30mph.

AL, 09, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 168N, 500W, 25, 1009, LO,


It is wobbly to say the least.
Quoting Orcasystems:

OK, thats not even fair...I have not even finished updating the darn things are your posting them :(


Sorry Orca Lol. It Okay Ill Take it Down For You =)
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Lol Ive Been Here Since 2006.

Anyway Why is the Blog So Obbsesed with JFV?

I Dont Understand? He Lied about Having a Girlfriend.
Let's not even go their.Please let's get back to weather.The blog is more peaceful without his name mentioned.and I mean it.....
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Sorry Orca Lol. It Okay Ill Take it Down For You =)


Its ok, the rest are almost done
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, pretty impressive pressure from the ATCF best track as of 12z for 90L.

AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB,

Ex-Gaston's pressure however continues to increase, and now the winds have decreased to 30mph.

AL, 09, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 168N, 500W, 25, 1009, LO,


True...but in all fairness to ex-Gaston, that was some hours ago, and since then he's started to perk up rather quickly, and he's small enough that changes up or down are likely to be quickly reflected in the numbers...
Quoting Neapolitan:


True...but in all fairness to ex-Gaston, that was some hours ago, and since then he's started to perk up rather quickly, and he's small enough that changes up or down are likely to be quickly reflected in the numbers...


I was wondering if those were old figures. Are there any new ones out yet?
Quoting stillwaiting:
...you really wanna know????,WU's most infamous troll


Yeah, kinda, so I can understand all the references. You can email me so as not to take it up on the blog?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Let's not even go their.Please let's get back to weather.The blog is more peaceful without his name mentioned.and I mean it.....


Okay But one Last Thing.

I Dont Know Whos Worse Jason or JFV.

Anyway, I Dont Understand why my track went under such heavy critism, its in line with the Models?

Yesterday all the models where were my track passes over.

Everyone's A Critic =/

Anyway I Just Wanted to Tell you Guys. I Like all the States of the United States Except New
Jersey.
Can someone please explain to me what effects that ULL will have on ex-Gaston. I see people drawing tracks right through the middle of it, and unless the ULL drifts away I don't get those tracks.
2553. Vero1
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its ok, the rest are almost done


No fair copying now.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Okay But one Last Thing.

I Dont Know Whos Worse Jason or JFV.

Anyway, I Dont Understand why my track went under such heavy critism, its in line with the Models?

Yesterday all the models where were my track passes over.

Everyone's A Critic =/

Anyway I Just Wanted to Tell you Guys. I Like all the States of the United States Except New
Jersey.


Dude don't worry about it you've been pretty accurate so far. Sometimes people just talk for talks sake.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Yeah, kinda, so I can understand all the references. You can email me so as not to take it up on the blog?


In a Summary, Ill Say it in Quick Steps:

1) He Joins WU
2) He Tells Everyone he has a Girlfriend and a Kid
3) Someone Exposes Him for what he really is
4) He Trolls the Blog and Gets Banned
5) He Makes New Handles and Haunts the WU Chatroom to this Day.
Quoting cirrocumulus:


I think it must be a depression now or in a couple of hours because it is a little over land off and on. It has plenty of firepower over the warm waters so it must be a depression with the 1005 millibar low.
Not really.All depeneds on if it has a closed circulation.
In Re: JFV, I don't really remember anymore. He went nuts, insulted some people, then acted like an internet stalker for a long while, possibly even currently. Just about every single sock-puppet troll gets labeled as him/her/whatever. Although, to be fair, he/she/it does have some pet topics he/she/it does like to harp on that come up from time to time. Anyways, something about not speaking the name of the Christian avatar of evil comes to mind.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


In a Summary, Ill Say it in Quick Steps:

1) He Joins WU
2) He Tells Everyone he has a Girlfriend and a Kid
3) Someone Exposes Him for what he really is
4) He Trolls the Blog and Gets Banned
5) He Makes New Handles and Haunts the WU Chatroom to this Day.


That is as good as a straight forward synopsis as you can get.
Appearance continues to improve.

2561. Relix
COC full of convection with Ex-Gaston!
Quoting Vero1:


No fair copying now.


Ok its done... I was busy reading the comments in my blog... apparently its grumpy old men...and fisheries closure day?

Or maybe they are one and the same :)
Quoting sammywammybamy:


In a Summary, Ill Say it in Quick Steps:

1) He Joins WU
2) He Tells Everyone he has a Girlfriend and a Kid
3) Someone Exposes Him for what he really is
4) He Trolls the Blog and Gets Banned
5) He Makes New Handles and Haunts the WU Chatroom to this Day.
Why do you care what JFV says or does? Every time he comes on here, just ignore him when he starts misbehaving. No need to start a discussion about him now...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, pretty impressive pressure from the ATCF best track as of 12z for 90L.

AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB,

Ex-Gaston's pressure however continues to increase, and now the winds have decreased to 30mph.

AL, 09, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 168N, 500W, 25, 1009, LO,

90L moved east of due north the 06z was at 19.3n and 95.8
Good lord, Ex-Gaston's bands look more like outflow bounderies.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why do you care what JFV says or does? Every time he comes on here, just ignore him when he starts misbehaving. No need to start a discussion about him now...


No Just Someone New Asked and She/He wanted to Know..

Anyway,

Earl - EXTROP
Invest 99 - DISSP
Invest 90 - Forming
Gaston - Reforming
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Okay But one Last Thing.

I Dont Know Whos Worse Jason or JFV.

Anyway, I Dont Understand why my track went under such heavy critism, its in line with the Models?

Yesterday all the models where were my track passes over.

Everyone's A Critic =/

Anyway I Just Wanted to Tell you Guys. I Like all the States of the United States Except New
Jersey.
I wasn't talking about your track.It's a pretty reasonable track,also really don't like new jersey..(*.*)
I don't like the looks of "Gaston". So many models bringing it west into the Caribbean, the hot zone. Anyone see this one curving out to sea like the rest have? We never like seeing those in that area where I live (S FL), reminds me to much of the hooks those storms make.
2569. spathy
Quoting RecordSeason:
Appearance continues to improve.



Aaacckkk!
I take that comment back about cook or get out of the kitchen.
Gaston!
Get out of the kitchen!
What are the naming conventions and nomneclature of all the **L numbers (90L, 98L, 99L, etc.) along with all the "Invest" names and numbers I've tried a couple of searches but keep getting too many results. I'd appreciate either an explanation or a link; I use these designations when discussing disturbances but have not a clue as to what they mean.
I see we have JFV talk and no Gaston talk. What's up with this?
I would like to see the convection of ex-Gaston persist through 8pm EDT before any sort of re-classification.
2561:

Yup.

Now he should be able to get some outflow going over the next few hours and cut off the shear and dry air on the eastern side. Then it's game on...
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I don't like the looks of "Gaston". So many models bringing it west into the Caribbean, the hot zone. Anyone see this one curving out to sea like the rest have? We never like seeing those in that area where I live (S FL), reminds me to much of the hooks those storms make.




?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why do you care what JFV says or does? Every time he comes on here, just ignore him when he starts misbehaving. No need to start a discussion about him now...


In all fairness to Sammy, someone asked what all the "referencing was to JFV. He was just keeping it short and simple and I am pretty sure he doesn't want to go into it any further. Much respect for you and your posts.


Wow. Gaston is firing on all cylinders now. Heading toward the Caribbean.

Quoting wanzewurld:
What are the naming conventions and nomneclature of all the **L numbers (90L, 98L, 99L, etc.) along with all the "Invest" names and numbers I've tried a couple of searches but keep getting too many results. I'd appreciate either an explanation or a link; I use these designations when discussing disturbances but have not a clue as to what they mean.
Invests are always numbered 90-99 and the L designates Atlantic whereas in the Eastern Pacific it would be 90E and the Western Pacific would be 90W.
Quoting cirrocumulus:


Wow. Gaston is firing on all cylinders now. Heading toward the Caribbean.

That is not Gaston. That is 90L.
Wow Boom !!! thunderstorms increasing near the center of Gaston !!!!!!!!!
Quoting wanzewurld:
What are the naming conventions and nomneclature of all the **L numbers (90L, 98L, 99L, etc.) along with all the "Invest" names and numbers I've tried a couple of searches but keep getting too many results. I'd appreciate either an explanation or a link; I use these designations when discussing disturbances but have not a clue as to what they mean.


Their Given to Designated an Area of Intrest.

90L
91L
92L
93L
94L
95L
96L
97L
98L
99L

After 99L We Go Back to 90L (Sorta like Resetting)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, we got that now.
2583. spathy
Quoting cirrocumulus:


Wow. Gaston is firing on all cylinders now. Heading toward the Caribbean.

Snicker:0)
Thats not Gaston.
2584. Vero1
Quoting caneswatch:
I see we have JFV talk and no Gaston talk. What's up with this?


They are similar, they go away and come back over and over.
We likely will be dealing with 10L by the days end.

Quoting cirrocumulus:


Wow. Gaston is firing on all cylinders now. Heading toward the Caribbean.


This is 90L
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would like to see the convection of ex-Gaston persist through 8pm EDT before any sort of re-classification.


Same here. Also a bit more spread out as well.
NEW BLOG
000
NOUS42 KNHC 041330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SAT 04 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-096

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. PROBABLE 6-HRLY FIXES ON THE REMNANTS OF GASTON
NEAR 16.5N 55.0W AT 06/1200Z.
B. A G-IV FLIGHT FOR 07/0000Z.
C. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 22.5N 96.5W AT 06/1500Z.

3. REMARKS: NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 9 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT
INTO GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING 05/1000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Okay But one Last Thing.

I Dont Know Whos Worse Jason or JFV.

Anyway, I Dont Understand why my track went under such heavy critism, its in line with the Models?

Yesterday all the models where were my track passes over.

Everyone's A Critic =/

Anyway I Just Wanted to Tell you Guys. I Like all the States of the United States Except New
Jersey.
,funniest thing i've heard all week,lived in jersey city for a few years,actually had a good time,definately dirty though,lol
Quoting Vero1:


They are similar, they go away and come back over and over.


lol Got that right. However, Gaston will finally give us what we've all been waiting for today.
2593. Vero1
If ex-Gaston can redevelop, it may become a serious threat later on.
I think the earliest it would be re-classified would be late Monday or Tuesday.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why do you care what JFV says or does? Every time he comes on here, just ignore him when he starts misbehaving. No need to start a discussion about him now...


+100. The amount of space and energy wasted here on juvenile discussions about Juliet Foxtrot Victor is completely ridiculous. Mind-boggling even. I've seen far more comments critical of the guy than I ever have seen from the guy himself. Give it a rest, already, would you guys?
gaston is looking good now



the COC is where you see the red curves

wow and the dryness is nearly gone out of the system

2597. Vero1
ORCA bring your stuff over to the NEW one
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Gaston:



Looks like Hes trying to Read a Map.


Looks like the Caneswatch duo:

Behind every great man is a woman.....rolling her eyes!
I think what the NHC will do with Gaston is this.


He will not be re-classified on the next advisory, simply because they don't want to look silly and "re-classify" him only to have the possibility of downgrading again a few hours later.


So what will happen is this: No upgrade on next advisory (2p.m.), then he skips straight to TS on the following advisory(8p.m.).
Quoting RecordSeason:
I think what the NHC will do with Gaston is this.


He will not be re-classified on the next advisory, simply because they don't want to look silly and "re-classify" him only to have the possibility of downgrading again a few hours later.


So what will happen is this: No upgrade on next advisory (2p.m.), then he skips straight to TS on the following advisory(8p.m.).


I don't think the possibility of looking silly is an important part of their decision-making paradigm.
2601. Dakster
Quoting StormW:
I'll tell ya...if ignorance is bliss...then Dr. Masters blog is in ecstasy



LOL.
You are in rare form today Stormw... Everything going ok?
sammywammybamy and everyone. Thank you. The references to him were not all the same, so a little confusing, but now they make sense.
2603. IKE
GMZ089-052130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OVER SW GULF COAST AT 19.5N95.5W 1007 MB
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BEING MOVING TOWARD
THE N-NW TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COASTLINE AND MOVE
INLAND NEAR 25N98W MON NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM
THE LOW TO THE NW GULF WILL ALSO MOVE NW ACROSS W WATERS. STRONG
PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL PRODUCE FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SHIFTING NW WITH THESE
FEATURES THROUGH TUE. A STALLED WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE FAR
N GULF WILL DISSIPATE EARLY MON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
N GULF TUE THROUGH THU.

...........................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF GASTON NEAR 17N50.5W THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
MOVE W ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE MON MORNING
THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS OR JUST S OF PUERTO RICO
TUE EVENING AND NIGHT...AND PASS JUST S OF HISPANIOLA WED
THROUGH LATE THU. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 64W N OF 14N THIS
MORNING MOVING W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES HISPANIOLA
MON.
Good afternoon Wunderground! I am as some of you know a senior in High School and will be attending Texas A&M in January. As a thank you gift, I would like to give my School 10 of these portable weather stations in hopes of them implementing Atmospheric Sciences into their curriculum, it may not work but I think it would serve a useful purpose. I am half way there to covering the costs, and to speed up the process I would like to ask you to sign up on this website and thats all! I am NOT asking for donations at all, just to simply sign up. I will receive 1 dollar for each sign up, and you have to do nothing at all but sign up using this link:

Link



Thank you all so much! I will be sure to acknowledge all that sign up! Again, I am not asking for a penny! Just for you to complete the sign up process! Thank you, I will be on later tonight with my first blog on Ex-Gaston, and other threats!
Doug checking in from the Seacoast region of NH. From my handle you can guess my interest in this blog. I always root for TS and Hurricanes to track 100 or more miles off shore - less likely that way that we will experience loss of life and property (in most cases) and offshore storm tracks make for better surfing conditions! I paddled out yesterday morning about 10:30 just two hours or so into the falling tide at an exposed headland about 5 miles southeast of the mouth of the Piscataqua river. Conditions overnight in our location were not severe, and the morning's weather was beautiful, mild with light westerlies (gradients have since tightened and winds have been blowing 16 -20 mph from NW). Swell was consistently 6-8' at our shoreline from mid morning to early afternoon and then fell progressively over these last 24 hours. I have surfed the same spot many time before in groundswell from Atlantic hurricanes and windswell from Nor'easters. During the very short swell window yesterday there was powerful surf focused on southeast exposed ledge and point breaks and I was fortunate to ride several waves with faces in the 10-12' range. Next time I will get you all some photos. I have been living here since the 60's and have always been drawn to be a witness to (and as a surfer a participant in) the powerful coastal weather systems that are a part of the fabric of life here on the short, varied NH coastline. Mostly cold core storms here, but I keep watch for tropical systems as summer cools to autumn. Love lurking here on WU and enjoy the good information and wacky banter alike.