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Earl hits Category 4; Fiona forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:01 PM GMT on August 30, 2010

Powerful Hurricane Earl, now a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, continues to lash Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this afternoon. Hardest hit was Anegada in the British Virgin Islands, population of 200. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anegada at noon EDT, and the island probably saw sustained winds of 100 mph in the south eyewall of Earl. Second hardest hit was probably the island of Anguilla. Amateur weather observer Steve Donahue at anguilla-weather.com estimated gusts of 100 mph on Anguilla this morning; his anemometer broke at 88 mph. Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT. Winds were below tropical storm force on Antigua, but heavy rains of 5.71" have deluged the island. Heavy rains have hit Puerto Rico, where radar-estimated rainfall amounts of up to 5" have occurred southwest of San Juan. A heavy rain band moved across the island late this morning, with a tornadic thunderstorm that prompted issuance of a tornado warning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.


Figure 2. Radar image of Earl taken this afternoon from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar.

Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico show that the eye of Earl has now moved past the Virgin Islands, and winds will begin to subside on most of the islands this evening. Heavy rains will continue through Tuesday, however, bringing the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 4 knots--but is expected to increase to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, tonight through Thursday afternoon, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This shear should not appreciably affect Earl between now and Thursday, since the hurricane is so large and strong. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for continued intensification. Earl should continue to intensify until reaching Category 4 or 5 strength on Tuesday, and will probably maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. The hurricane will probably undergo at least one eyewall replacement cycle during that period, which will diminish its winds by 20 - 30 mph for a day or so. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 3. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 8am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's HWRF model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, above 64 kt) are predicted to stay off the coast, except over Nova Scotia. Tropical storm force winds (light green colors, above 34 knots) are predicted to affect virtually the entire U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine. Winds between 58 mph - 73 mph (dark green colors) are predicted to affect North Carolina's Outer Banks, Southeast Massachusetts, and Eastern Maine. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, but still keep hurricane force winds offshore. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. We now have one model predicting a U.S. landfall--the latest HWRF model predicts Earl will hit the Maine/Nova Scotia border region on Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. Several models now predict Earl will being tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty, and could potentially receive a direct hit. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 11% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 10% for Nantucket, 5% for Boston, and 3% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea, but it is not unusual for the models to miss the timing and intensity of these troughs significantly in 4 - 5 day forecasts.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

Fiona forms
Tropical Storm Fiona finally gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be given a name, but continues to struggle with dry air. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity comes and goes, and there are not many intense thunderstorms near the storm's center. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to increase to moderate, 10 - 15 knots, by Tuesday. Fiona is moving quickly to the west, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona, and probably arrest the storm's development. A scenario predicted by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy Fiona through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario, championed by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for Fiona to stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast early next week. At this point, it is difficult to choose between these two scenarios. History suggests that a storm in Fiona's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.

Danielle
Danielle is now a tropical storm, and is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting surfmom:


been following your think on this "boy" since he exited Africa -- seems like you have a handle on understanding the "mood" & "way" of this storm....
I'm watching you watch him....it's been interesting.


I used to live on Long Island, NY and have family up there. Danielle recurved east of Bermuda, it would make sense that the ridge would build and Earl would head more west.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey its what you are used to. How much reaction are you going to get in Georgia if blizzard forecast even though is in realm of possibility. Same with 'canes in north east.

Georgia blizzard forecast = total panic meltdown. Grew up there. lol (Just a few inches of snow shuts her down for a couple days). ;)
There was major damage a few years ago in eastern Canada when Hurricane "Juan" slammed us and that was only a cat 1.
Quoting Patrap:


Any fool who willy nillies a Historic catastrophic Hurricane that claimed 1800 plus lives should really see da shrink.


.."Calamity Knows no Borders,,only mens minds and maps do"

..and some wit 24 posts


1800 it's a joke check direct casualties for both mitch and fifi and compare. i was picking bodies even 15 days afterwards.. out of river banks. So hummm crazy i guess not i just pointing out, that i do understand why some people get all ptsd on hurricane season.

Specially first responders.Just because it didn't happen in the us. doesn't mean loved ones didn't die.
Quoting tinkahbell:
Local mets here are saying just a little bit of rain and wind...just a brush as Earl passes off shore. Hmmm.


Tough to comment on that without knowing where 'here' is.

More generally, it's worth bearing in mind the democratizing effects of the internet. Hurricanes are incredibly complicated and difficult to predict. Local meteorologists, particularly those living outside Florida and certain part of the Gulf Coast, have little experience or expertise with such storms. They rely - quite properly, I might add - on the same NHC products that you and I can access.

The advantage that their training and experience confers lies in sifting through the wealth of data and forecasts out there. Many users on this board seize upon a single piece of information as evidence that their worst fears or fondest hopes are about to be realized. Professional forecasters are better at looking at the totally of the evidence. But again, with hurricanes, they tend to defer to the official NHC and regional weather office products. If all the dynamic models are shifting, but that hasn't yet been written up in a formal update, you won't hear it from them - they're more interested in knowing the temperature this afternoon. That means that following this stuff closely tends to confer an advantage over listening to local newscasts - perhaps 24 hours when a storm is out to sea, narrowing to more like 6 hours as it approaches land, and then to just an hour or two before landfall.

There are, alas, more than a few professional forecasters who don't fit this model. They work for outlets that covet ratings, or seek to advance their own careers. And they know that if you consistently forecast doom, you only have to be correct once to have all your erroneous forecasts forgotten.
Quoting mydiapersarefull:
There is going to be a window of good surf from Thursday (maybe not DP but during the day) until Friday night of good surf on the EC. By Saturday it looks like the swell will be gone. So if you want good waves you have to hit that Thursday/Friday window. WFL Gulf stays flat.

Despite the disappointment in Danielle's swell, we're still getting surf today. Tomorrow should ramp up the waves, with a little bump from winds. If Earl can stay further east on his track NW, Thurs/Fri could be EPIC in the way of waves. A further west trend, and it all goes to hell, generator out, windows boarded, beer iced, glock loaded....

A glock What do you need that for? XD
4008. Patrap
Note the Poleward stretching of the CDO and overall envelope..



On the WV loop it looks like Earl is starting to run into the trough digging way down...it almost looks like Earl could start moving north then northeast from where it is now...or can Earl get underneath then ride up the west side of it? Or can Earl go right thru it? Also, being that Fiona is moving so fast and getting very close to Earl, is it possible we could see a Fujiwhara effect at some point?
4010. MahFL
Earl starting to get buzz saw edges again.
hey guys fiona isnt as close to earl anymore
4012. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:
From 5AM SUNDAY

A
BREAK DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 65 TO 70W AS THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH DANIELLE LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING EARL
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THIS WEAKNESS IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...


and the 1245UTC vis


We're in a critical area and losing radar coverage.
Quoting TampaSpin:
For the people in Florida and the Gulf Coast States......There is nothing to worry about with Earl and probably Fiona. The one to watch is Invest 98L! There will likely be a very large high pressure ridge that will develop and keep 98L much further South. NOW if you live in possibly South Carolina North. You better have plans in place if you live along the Shores. It could get very Nasty.


Gulf coast should watch it carefully. Do not discount the actual movement being much more westerly than the models or forecasters say.
Quoting futuremet:


It was going through an EWRC last night. The EWRC is hindered because it is moving into unfavorable conditions.


About time it did.
Kman i don't believe Fiona is the one for you to worry much about .....but, 98L is a different matter.
4016. Patrap
4005. mtyspider

Understood..and Im all too aware of MCI events ,as I was directly involved as a member of the Cajun Navy here in 05.
Earl does not need an eye.He can feel Florida already.
How did earl weaken?
4019. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:

I had my roof ripped off my house during Andrew while I was inside. Does that count for your "street cred" test?

Still no reason to panic or act like every storm is coming to Florida.

Wait.. Katrina was "wimpsy?" I wish I knew what that meant.
Earl is taking another shot at intensification. It appears to be hitting shear and some drier air conditions to its west, causing it to flatten a bit on the west quadrant. Some north to south elongation too. Dvorak shows convection trying to wrap around.
4020. CJ5
Quoting Snowmog:


"someplace called Nantucket"! :)


There once was a man from Nantucket, whose.....oh never mind:)
a slight shift east is all we need to free the east coast pleaze!!

Quoting CloudGatherer:


Tough to comment on that without knowing where 'here' is.

More generally, it's worth bearing in mind the democratizing effects of the internet. Hurricanes are incredibly complicated and difficult to predict. Local meteorologists, particularly those living outside Florida and certain part of the Gulf Coast, have little experience or expertise with such storms. They rely - quite properly, I might add - on the same NHC products that you and I can access.

The advantage that their training and experience confers lies in sifting through the wealth of data and forecasts out there. Many users on this board seize upon a single piece of information as evidence that their worst fears or fondest hopes are about to be realized. Professional forecasters are better at looking at the totally of the evidence. But again, with hurricanes, they tend to defer to the official NHC and regional weather office products. If all the dynamic models are shifting, but that hasn't yet been written up in a formal update, you won't hear it from them - they're more interested in knowing the temperature this afternoon. That means that following this stuff closely tends to confer an advantage over listening to local newscasts - perhaps 24 hours when a storm is out to sea, narrowing to more like 6 hours as it approaches land, and then to just an hour or two before landfall.

There are, alas, more than a few professional forecasters who don't fit this model. They work for outlets that covet ratings, or seek to advance their own careers. And they know that if you consistently forecast doom, you only have to be correct once to have all your erroneous forecasts forgotten.


Sorry! Here is Delaware.
4023. Levi32
Earl is still about to hit a wall...the dry, cool airmass brought down behind Danielle has now pressed down all the way to the Bahamas, and Earl is moving right into it. It won't be very long before dry air starts wrapping in and weakening him, outside of the normal EWRC changes. It is even possible dry air will start disrupting the core before the EWRC is complete, meaning that a well-developed eye may not get a chance to reform before being impaired again. I would see Earl struggling to be anything more than a Cat 3 after 24 hours from now through the end of his life. He may not even be a major when he passes Cape Hatteras, but we'll see.

Quoting mtyspider:


1800 it's a joke check direct casualties for both mitch and fifi and compare. i was picking bodies even 15 days afterwards.. out of river banks. So hummm crazy i guess not i just pointing out, that i do understand why some people get all ptsd on hurricane season.

Specially first responders.Just because it didn't happen in the us. doesn't mean loved ones didn't die.



1800 is a JOKE???? I'm not sure of your facts...but one life lost in a hurricane is a BIG DEAL..I really don't think you should bring ridiculous comments like that to this blog.....POOF!!!
4025. FLdewey
Quoting shadoclown45:

A glock What do you need that for? XD

Ohh it's very much a necessity if you're staying for a major.
Quoting Patrap:
Note the Poleward stretching of the CDO and overall envelope..





Yeah, Earl has an impressive outflow channel to its north and northeast!
4028. hydrus
Quoting MahFL:
Earl starting to get buzz saw edges again.
Yes. It has been looking a little healthier the past few frames..
4029. mnborn
I think the only ones that can breath easier each day are those on Bermuda...
Quoting reedzone:


I used to live on Long Island, NY and have family up there. Danielle recurved east of Bermuda, it would make sense that the ridge would build and Earl would head more west.


yeah, but weren't you predicting Danielle to go much farther west??
Quoting PEISLANDER:
There was major damage a few years ago in eastern Canada when Hurricane "Juan" slammed us and that was only a cat 1.


I remember Juan, however the damage due to winds increases greatly as you go from 130km/h (not damaging) to 150km/h (very damaging). Juan was a high end 1 or weak 2. If earl is low end 1 dont expect anything like juan of 2003.
Quoting stormtopz:
a slight shift east is all we need to free the east coast pleaze!!



Not going to happen till it nears the coast and interacts with the trough
Fiona took a westward trek from 5 to 8 am. Seems like the NHC sees this one as not a significant storm in the near future. Likely due to Earl.
Quoting surfmom:


been following your think on this "boy" since he exited Africa -- seems like you have a handle on understanding the "mood" & "way" of this storm....
I'm watching you watch him....it's been interesting.


Watching both of you now. Is westcasting contagious?
Did anyone see the special on the National Geographic Channel about Katrina? I think it was called "Witness: Katrina"...watched it last night; incredible, powerful, emotional stuff...
Quoting mtyspider:


After u have lived at least 2 real hurricanes u cann't judge. And i mean real ones like FIFI and Mitch with 10k+ dead not wimpsy 25k like katrina. class 4 and class 5 are no joke for anybody


Being overly afraid and panicky for no reason is the joke. Get your facts straight: 1836 people died as a direct result of hurricane Katrina. Mitch killed over 20000 people mostly in Central America, it hit Florida as a tropical storm. Most of the deaths were caused by the extreme flooding as a result of the terrain. Despite what you have heard, there are no mountains in Florida. So Mitch was indeed a killer, 10 times as many as Katrina. we focus on Katrina because it was close, recent and it killed our countrymen and the news sources feasted on it for months playing it up for all it was worth. If that motivates us to act wisely in the face`of these threats, then great, we have learned something. But don't exaggerate the facts to be a buzzkill. FLdewey is funny as hell, he doesn't need to go over the line to find humor.
4037. FLdewey
Quoting hydrus:
Earl is taking another shot at intensification. It appears to be hitting shear and some drier air conditions to its west, causing it to flatten a bit on the west quadrant. Some north to south elongation too. Dvorak shows convection trying to wrap around.

Hopefully all we get is beach erosion... but I see that.
4039. MahFL
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
oh no a west wooble and some pocked his eye out


You mean poked ?
Quoting FLdewey:

Ohh it's very much a necessity if you're staying for a major.

If you Shot into the winds the bullet would whip right back at you... You would do more damage to yourself instead of the hurricane. XD
I normally would never share an Email but, i am sure Brian OZ. would not mind this. He just emailed his plans. Here you all go!

Hey Tampa!

Lurking on WU...and saw your post.


Yep...I've got tickets to NC tomorrow at oh-dark 30.

Arrive in Charlotte at 1:30

Will arrive at Cape Hatteras around sunset...and will broadcast live at that time for about 30 minutes.

I'll be sure to give you a heads up...or easier...just go to 7674u.com and click the Facebook link on the page and click "like." You'll be given updates from there.

I intend on staying on Cape Hatteras. Wish me well! :) And it's okay to tell everyone on WU I'm definitely going. Airfare not refundable...and I'm packed and ready to go.

Oz---
Quoting Bonedog:
looking at all the sat images you can see the eyewall reforming now very clearly. Should start to see the CDO clearing out within the next 2 or 3 hours. Looks open on the southwest side per images but filling in nicely. Looks about 30 to 40nm in diameter. Wind speed will increse AFTER the 11am advisory figure at the 2pm it will be back up.


Per Vortex message 45 min ago, circular, still open in SW and 15nm diameter.
4043. FLdewey
Quoting IamTheCanesSurfer:


Watching both of you now. Is westcasting contagious?

Spreads like Chicken Pox.
If Earl gets to Cape Hatteras's Longitude and it's still south of that area......it's check mate for east coast
Hola, Earl Watchers. Yep, it's time to clean all the party decorations out of the yard, and tote 2 dozen patio chairs back next door for stowage. We've added so much lounge stuff the past few years I'm not sure I can stow it all in the garage and still have room for one of the vehicles, LOL.

Might be for naught, but better done too soon than scurrying around at the last minute. It won't take much of a left lean to have at least TS winds here at 36.6 x 76.
4046. Patrap
Guerra Family Video during Hurricane Katrina.

From this mans mouth to ones ears.

10 miles East of NOLA.


Been lurking here for a couple years, and found this an extremely helpful and informative blog. I live near Gulf Shores, AL, and have been through several hurricanes in the past 20 years since we moved here. I am an insurance adjuster, working for one of the larger insurers, and I want to give y’all some advice I hope will help you prepare before the storm hits. First, get your policy out and read it. Learn what it does and does not pay for and how it pays. You may have to read it 3-4 times to understand it, but it’s worth it. Please note-your homeowners policy does not pay for damage caused by water coming in at or below ground level. You will need a separate flood insurance policy for that. Also take note of your deductible. For a named storm, it is often a percentage of the value of your home instead of the standard, fixed amount deductible.
Side note – most adjusters working a hurricane or major event are catastrophe adjusters, and they get paid as a percentage of your estimate. Meaning, the larger your estimate, the more they get paid. It is in their best interest to make sure you get everything coming to you. They really are there to help you get the most from your policy.
4048. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:
Earl is still about to hit a wall...the dry, cool airmass brought down behind Danielle has now pressed down all the way to the Bahamas, and Earl is moving right into it. It won't be very long before dry air starts wrapping in and weakening him, outside of the normal EWRC changes. It is even possible dry air will start disrupting the core before the EWRC is complete, meaning that a well-developed eye may not get a chance to reform before being impaired again. I would see Earl struggling to be anything more than a Cat 3 after 24 hours from now through the end of his life. He may not even be a major when he passes Cape Hatteras, but we'll see.

Hello Levi...Any classes yet? I know its early, but I wanted your thoughts on 98L,s track..tia
4049. divdog
Quoting mtyspider:


1800 it's a joke check direct casualties for both mitch and fifi and compare. i was picking bodies even 15 days afterwards.. out of river banks. So hummm crazy i guess not i just pointing out, that i do understand why some people get all ptsd on hurricane season.

Specially first responders.Just because it didn't happen in the us. doesn't mean loved ones didn't die.
please follow these steps
pick up phone
call nearest psychiatric facility
get in car
punch in gps coordinates to facility
proceed to front door
check in (remember check in time is 3:00)

4050. srada
So what I understood this morning that the cold front that is supposed to kick Earl out to sea has SLOWED down..which would be interesting to see if they bring the track even closer west now
Quoting angiest:


We're in a critical area and losing radar coverage.



Did I understand that correctly?


That Earl should start turning to the NW in 2-3 days?

Is that suggesting that he will continue WNW until then?

And if so, shouldn't that be concerning for resudents of the Southern East Coast (Georgia, S> Carolina, etc)?

Don't slam me, just a beginner with questions.
Quoting mtyspider:


After u have lived at least 2 real hurricanes u cann't judge. And i mean real ones like FIFI and Mitch with 10k+ dead not wimpsy 25k like katrina. class 4 and class 5 are no joke for anybody

There was nothing "whimpsy" with Katrina. You should be banned for making that post!!!!
4053. angiest
Quoting BobinTampa:


yeah, but weren't you predicting Danielle to go much farther west??


I believe his most likely track was close to correct, but he did have a second track (less likely) that was further west.
The east cost better keep praying that the 300 heading number begins to increase soon. I think this is the point of where a few degrees in heading could cost billions.
Quoting ClearH2Ostormchaser:
At work anyone can post the eye coords please. Has he broke 20 north yet. I know he has been hugging it for a while now. Thank you

Yes broke 20, he is at 21N now
4057. breald
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey its what you are used to. How much reaction are you going to get in Georgia if blizzard forecast even though is in realm of possibility. Same with 'canes in north east.


Yeah but the last hurricane to hit the New England was in 1991 and they are still reacting to a blizzard that hit in 1978. I just think it is funny having lived thru many hurricane seasons in Florida. A big difference in attitude for these storms.
maybe dry air will kill it then.

Quoting TampaSpin:
I normally would never share an Email but, i am sure Brian OZ. would not mind this. He just emailed his plans. Here you all go!

Hey Tampa!

Lurking on WU...and saw your post.


Yep...I've got tickets to NC tomorrow at oh-dark 30.

Arrive in Charlotte at 1:30

Will arrive at Cape Hatteras around sunset...and will broadcast live at that time for about 30 minutes.

I'll be sure to give you a heads up...or easier...just go to 7674u.com and click the Facebook link on the page and click "like." You'll be given updates from there.

I intend on staying on Cape Hatteras. Wish me well! :) And it's okay to tell everyone on WU I'm definitely going. Airfare not refundable...and I'm packed and ready to go.

Oz---
Model of how the high pressure might set up to steer Earl

Link
4019:

Yeah, I've been waiting for the visible to get better solar angle so we can see what's going on.

It's still being choked some along the east to west axis, though not as badly on the eastern side as this morning.

Since the storm is moving west, it's hard to tell how much of the convection and outflow over there is "new" and how much is just naturally filling in, but I still think it is being slightly choked on the western edge in the upper levels, and possibly even at the surface.

the eastern half has shown marginal improvement in outflow, but may also be choked by fiona's outflow.
Quoting Levi32:
Earl is still about to hit a wall...the dry, cool airmass brought down behind Danielle has now pressed down all the way to the Bahamas, and Earl is moving right into it. It won't be very long before dry air starts wrapping in and weakening him, outside of the normal EWRC changes. It is even possible dry air will start disrupting the core before the EWRC is complete, meaning that a well-developed eye may not get a chance to reform before being impaired again. I would see Earl struggling to be anything more than a Cat 3 after 24 hours from now through the end of his life. He may not even be a major when he passes Cape Hatteras, but we'll see.



Well said, Earl will pass Cape Hatteras as a Cat 2 and then miss Cape Cod by about 150 miles..
Quoting BobinTampa:


yeah, but weren't you predicting Danielle to go much farther west??


I forecast Danielle to recurve a bit east of Bermuda, but had a 10% chance of it heading further west, I had my reasons. My main track was east of Bermuda.
4064. markot
look at latest pics it has turned more west, earl is not feeling pull to northwest....
Ohh it's very much a necessity if you're staying for a major.

not sure where you live, but I've ridden out a Cat 3(Fran) and had 'visitors' on the street even way back then! Law enforcement usually has their hands full and may not even be about to get out to answer all the calls...just looking out for me and mine!
The outflow form EArl give Fiona little chance at developing into much more than she is in my opinion. The Shear caused by Earl won't allow Fiona to do much.
4067. Patrap
Vaccarella Family - Hurricane Katrina

Same neighborhood as the previous video.

Playing a Longitude game now, if he's gaining Longitude more than lattitude, well, you know what happens.
Quoting songman77:
Been lurking here for a couple years, and found this an extremely helpful and informative blog. I live near Gulf Shores, AL, and have been through several hurricanes in the past 20 years since we moved here. I am an insurance adjuster, working for one of the larger insurers, and I want to give y’all some advice I hope will help you prepare before the storm hits. First, get your policy out and read it. Learn what it does and does not pay for and how it pays. You may have to read it 3-4 times to understand it, but it’s worth it. Please note-your homeowners policy does not pay for damage caused by water coming in at or below ground level. You will need a separate flood insurance policy for that. Also take note of your deductible. For a named storm, it is often a percentage of the value of your home instead of the standard, fixed amount deductible.
Side note – most adjusters working a hurricane or major event are catastrophe adjusters, and they get paid as a percentage of your estimate. Meaning, the larger your estimate, the more they get paid. It is in their best interest to make sure you get everything coming to you. They really are there to help you get the most from your policy.
Good point.
So if Earl gets west of 75W before it goes north of 30N, I think he could hit the Outer Banks
000
WTNT43 KNHC 311439
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

A 0929 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWED CURVED BANDS OF
CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR
THE CENTER HAVE WEAKENED...WHILE NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT...BASED ON THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE FIONA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/21 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...
FIONA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...FIONA SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FIONA TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA STRENGTHENS...AND NORTHEASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO...AS
SHOWN BY THE GFS...IS THAT FIONA COULD WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 15.9N 55.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 16.9N 58.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 18.7N 61.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 21.1N 63.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 23.4N 65.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 27.7N 67.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 31.0N 67.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 66.0W 45 KT
4063. reedzone 2:46 PM GMT on August 31, 2010


I forecast Danielle to recurve a bit east of Bermuda, but had a 10% chance of it heading further west, I had my reasons. My main track was east of Bermuda."


Do you think dry can weaken it, and move it out to sea?
Quoting CloudGatherer:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 311439
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

A 0929 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWED CURVED BANDS OF
CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR
THE CENTER HAVE WEAKENED...WHILE NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT...BASED ON THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE FIONA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/21 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...
FIONA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...FIONA SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FIONA TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA STRENGTHENS...AND NORTHEASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO...AS
SHOWN BY THE GFS...IS THAT FIONA COULD WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 15.9N 55.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 16.9N 58.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 18.7N 61.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 21.1N 63.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 23.4N 65.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 27.7N 67.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 31.0N 67.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 66.0W 45 KT
285 is a bad number...
Weaker system more west he goes
4075. Michfan
Quoting apocalyps:
Earl is headed for florida.It is a surfer.


Poof
Quoting TampaSpin:
Has anyone heard if "Brian Osborne" is gonna travel to do a live Remote shots of EArl. I do have his live feed on the Web if does go live, just to let you all know.

Depending on what Earl does, Oz and I may both be on the chase for Earl. I believe at this time he has committed to chasing Earl. My decision point is sometime tomorrow. You can read about it on his latest blog post:
EARL HAS SOMETHING IN HIS CROSSHAIRS...

You will also be able to see it live from 7674u.com
4077. Patrap
The forecast becomes a tad clearer at the 11am,

A lil east,,and that's a good thing.
4078. Levi32
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Levi...Any classes yet? I know its early, but I wanted your thoughts on 98L,s track..tia


Hey Hydrus, we're still in orientation through tomorrow. Classes start Thursday.

To be honest I haven't looked at 98L all that much, but my first thought is that it won't be tracking any farther north than Earl and Fiona, if it develops. The models seem unenthusiastic about its development and it's probably because of the dry air in the eastern Atlantic pressing down on it rather hard, but it does look better than the models even thought it would now so it may have a chance.
Second bit of advice – many policies today are replacement cost policies; meaning they will pay the necessary and reasonable costs to put you back to where you were pre-storm. What the adjuster gives you would be an estimate of what it will cost to repair your home. It sometimes costs more than that first estimate, and the additional cost can usually be covered by another call to the adjuster or to the company. Sometimes a contractor’s estimate is way out of line with what the company thinks it should cost, so they may request that you get 2-3 more estimates just to show that the contractor you have chosen isn’t ripping you off. Please be sure to choose a reputable contractor who will be there for the long haul. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve gotten calls from an Insured telling me their contractor went out of business and took the money with them. Do some research on the contractor before you sign with them. And, do not throw out any damaged property before talking to your adjuster. Most companies won’t pay for damaged property they haven’t seen.
4081. Bonedog
guys and gals stop quoting mtyspider. he is a troll and goes by several other names. folks have him on the ignore list so by quoting it totally defeats the purpose.

Hit the report buttom and move on.

Stop feeding the trolls, especially now!!
4082. jasblt
Quoting songman77:
Been lurking here for a couple years, and found this an extremely helpful and informative blog. I live near Gulf Shores, AL, and have been through several hurricanes in the past 20 years since we moved here. I am an insurance adjuster, working for one of the larger insurers, and I want to give y’all some advice I hope will help you prepare before the storm hits. First, get your policy out and read it. Learn what it does and does not pay for and how it pays. You may have to read it 3-4 times to understand it, but it’s worth it. Please note-your homeowners policy does not pay for damage caused by water coming in at or below ground level. You will need a separate flood insurance policy for that. Also take note of your deductible. For a named storm, it is often a percentage of the value of your home instead of the standard, fixed amount deductible.
Side note – most adjusters working a hurricane or major event are catastrophe adjusters, and they get paid as a percentage of your estimate. Meaning, the larger your estimate, the more they get paid. It is in their best interest to make sure you get everything coming to you. They really are there to help you get the most from your policy.

There will be alot of folks who think they have coverage when in fact they don't, happens every storm. Good advise, know your policy and your limits, read and reread, know what is covered and what is not. The policies can be tricky. And yes, I am a cat adjuster, and a very true statement about getting the homeowner what they are due, and as quick as possible.
Quoting Flyairbird:
285 is a bad number...


You're focusing on the wrong line. This is key:
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FIONA SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
4084. Levi32
Earl is, in fact, already ingesting good amounts of dry air, as he was last night. It's not the airmass to the north, but it's dry air nonetheless. Outflow boundaries to the west of Earl are evidence supporting this, and radar imagery last night showed dry air intrusion into the core:

Earl and the Jersey Shore?? Run Snookie, Run!! Where is 12pak Cantore of TWC fame?? Eye replacement could be a very large eye in the making?? Big water/surge.
What's up surfmom,no waves for us yet,i highly suspect that's going to be changing for our area(gom) 10-14 days out,w/energy beginning to advect north out of the carib!!!
4087. Patrap
Quoting Levi32:
Earl is still about to hit a wall...the dry, cool airmass brought down behind Danielle has now pressed down all the way to the Bahamas, and Earl is moving right into it. It won't be very long before dry air starts wrapping in and weakening him, outside of the normal EWRC changes. It is even possible dry air will start disrupting the core before the EWRC is complete, meaning that a well-developed eye may not get a chance to reform before being impaired again. I would see Earl struggling to be anything more than a Cat 3 after 24 hours from now through the end of his life. He may not even be a major when he passes Cape Hatteras, but we'll see.



Levi, really great graphic, one of the best I have seen over the last 4-5 days that catches more then just a snapshot of this climatological (my 10 cent word for the morning) event. Your graphic though almost shows that Fiona is having a "booster" like effect on Earl, pushing it towards the WNW.

Indeed, that last coordinates I have been able to find show a 2 to 1 ratio of longitude vs latitude movement. And it looks like that as the air mass moves south, it appears to be gaining moisture and increasing in temperature.

Is there enough here from the air mass moving south to (1) have a serioius effect on Earl's movement to the WNW, (2) affect intensification, and/or (3) affect its ability to maintain cohesiveness (OK, two words this morning) ????

Tampa Spin, Destin Jeff, do you have an opinion on this matter?
Giving Reed a hard time about his 10% track West of Bermuda?

Geez. Some of you guys remind me of the people I deal with in my Sports Handicapping ventures.... Wow....

As I recall, Reed had Danielle going East of Bermuda, as she did.
4090. FLdewey
Quoting Bonedog:
guys and gals stop quoting mtyspider. he is a troll and goes by several other names. folks have him on the ignore list so by quoting it totally defeats the purpose.

Hit the report buttom and move on.

Stop feeding the trolls, especially now!!

Good advice! I didn't realize who it was until it was too late.
.
4093. Patrap
4094. Jax82
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
Third bit of advice-Depreciation. Depreciation is simply the difference between what something is worth now and what it would cost to replace it. This is where you need to read your policy. Some policies do not pay depreciation, meaning they will only pay what your home is worth now, not what it would cost to repair it. If your policy does pay depreciation, it is often paid as a second installment, and you have to ask for it. I’ve learned that many adjusters do not explain depreciation well and the homeowners think that the first payment is all they get from the company. Read everything you get from the insurance company, and if you don’t understand something, ask the adjuster. It’s part of his job to make sure you understand your settlement.
Sorry for the books, hope I helped someone,
4096. 7544
if earl weakens he goes more west and hes getting close to the se bahamas will he make it there or make that turn . but hes still keeps wobble wobble west again hmmmm
4097. Jax82
11am Earl NHC

4098. Levi32
Quoting TexasHoosier:


Levi, really great graphic, one of the best I have seen over the last 4-5 days that catches more then just a snapshot of this climatological (my 10 cent word for the morning) event. Your graphic though almost shows that Fiona is having a "booster" like effect on Earl, pushing it towards the WNW.

Indeed, that last coordinates I have been able to find show a 2 to 1 ratio of longitude vs latitude movement. And it looks like that as the air mass moves south, it appears to be gaining moisture and increasing in temperature.

Is there enough here from the air mass moving south to (1) have a serioius effect on Earl's movement to the WNW, (2) affect intensification, and/or (3) affect its ability to maintain cohesiveness (OK, two words this morning) ????

Tampa Spin, Destin Jeff, do you have an opinion on this matter?


The movement of the airmass is a surface flow and should have little effect on the track of Earl. Yes the airmass is gaining moisture and temperature because it is getting moderated, as every cool airmass does when it moves south over a warmer continent or ocean. However, it is still far too dry to be friendly to a major hurricane, and I am confident it will play a big part in limiting Earl's intensity. I think he has already peaked.
If he doesn't make the distinct turn in 18 hrs, I think its too late for the east coast
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
Quoting FLdewey:

Good advice! I didn't realize who it was until it was too late.


Who's the troll?
ONe thing of most important. If for some reason Earl would loose some punch and not be a Cat.3 he will move further West. I hope you all understand that stronger storm would move further East and likely out to Sea. So, in this case we probably want Earl to be a Cat. 5 if my thesis would be correct.
Quoting apocalyps:
Long time lurker first time poster.
Just trying to learn here.
I think Earl wants to surf on Miami Beach.


"!" ... first time poster, huh?
4105. divdog
Quoting Jax82:
11am Earl NHC


9am Earl NHC


those maps look the same
Like I said this AM; busy day for IGNORE. "Cane that makes the "news" brings out the aunts, spiders, snakes and other random vermin.
Quoting 7544:
if earl weakens he goes more west and hes getting close to the se bahamas will he make it there or make that turn . but hes still keeps wobble wobble west again hmmmm


Earl is wobbling to florida.A lot of wobbles makes a track.
Quoting CloudGatherer:
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
you think at the 5 PM advisory is going to be clear as mud. LOL
4109. Vero1
Quoting reedzone:


Who's the troll?


+1
4110. K8eCane
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY
Quoting songman77:
Third bit of advice-Depreciation. Depreciation is simply the difference between what something is worth now and what it would cost to replace it. This is where you need to read your policy. Some policies do not pay depreciation, meaning they will only pay what your home is worth now, not what it would cost to repair it. If your policy does pay depreciation, it is often paid as a second installment, and you have to ask for it. I’ve learned that many adjusters do not explain depreciation well and the homeowners think that the first payment is all they get from the company. Read everything you get from the insurance company, and if you don’t understand something, ask the adjuster. It’s part of his job to make sure you understand your settlement.
Sorry for the books, hope I helped someone,


Thanks Songman - your posts were quite informative and I have saved the information - hope I will never need to use it, but being on a barrier island on the east coast of Florida, it is good information to have!
This is going to make life interesting :)



*aunts* bwahahaha

sorry I couldn't help it
4114. Jax82
my bad, 11am


Quoting ElConando:


Our maid was scared out of her mind after Mitch. Most of her Family is in Panama but a few of her husbands relatives whom she got to know well, lived in central America. Luckily they all survived but it took nearly two weeks after the landfall for confirmation.

Now as for comparing deaths I don't really think that is necessary. Long term Mitch and Katrina has lasting effects that continue to this day. I think it is ridiculous that two first responders for two historic storms are going at it regardless of who provoked it.


Finally somebody got my point.maybe i went to hard i do have to feel sympathy for the families of those 1800 but in raw numbers it doesn't make sense.

This discussion started because somebody was calling crazy somebody else because he was getting to nervous.and it touch a nerve .Maybe i fell in the elf trap.

Quoting Orcasystems:
This is going to make life interesting :)





haha, ive seen me now on the models two storms in a row :(
Quoting hurricanejunky:

Depending on what Earl does, Oz and I may both be on the chase for Earl. I believe at this time he has committed to chasing Earl. My decision point is sometime tomorrow. You can read about it on his latest blog post:
EARL HAS SOMETHING IN HIS CROSSHAIRS...

You will also be able to see it live from 7674u.com


Hey John,
Just got an Email from Oz that i just posted. He has my Cell # if you need anything done from this end to assist you both. You all be carefull!
4118. Relix
Fiona

At 8AM it was at 15.8 54.4
At 11: 15.9 55.3

.1N and .9W. Yup, NHC already missing this one lol. I trust the NHC but they have dropped the ball hard so far.
4119. K8eCane
ooops double posted already sorry
"The new forecast track is an update of
the previous track and lies just left of the center of the guidance
envelope."

I have been reading that sentence anew every day for some days now. I believe NJ is the most densely populated coastline, with most of the structures not hurricane-braced. These building's walls are not bracketed to the roof. Also, a normal summer thunderstorm can flood the coastline communities just due to poor drainage, not tides or waves. I know Jersey is more protected geographically than OBX or Mass., but all I see on every link I go to is the ridge pushing south and SSW, even pushing back the low trying to arrive from the southern areas below the island chain. When do we officially run out of time/space for recurvature? Can any experts comment on this, or am I seeing what is not there?
Quoting stormy2008:
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.


This includes North Carolina to possible Long Island. People need to start preparations now.
Quoting Engine2:
One thing I noticed, as much as the cone has shifted and the NHC track up towards OBX, the top half of that track or above the turn has not moved that much.


Longtime no see... its very unusual to see your nick in a AOI :)
Quoting Orcasystems:
This is going to make life interesting :)



A few of my friends are thinking that thier jobs in Provincetown on the Cape are going to be washed out this weekend... It sure looks like that. Someone that I know who is an EMT there and they have been told to prepare for a direct hit by their authorities. Oy.
4125. Patrap
Quoting songman77:
Been lurking here for a couple years, and found this an extremely helpful and informative blog. I live near Gulf Shores, AL, and have been through several hurricanes in the past 20 years since we moved here. I am an insurance adjuster, working for one of the larger insurers, and I want to give y’all some advice I hope will help you prepare before the storm hits. First, get your policy out and read it. Learn what it does and does not pay for and how it pays. You may have to read it 3-4 times to understand it, but it’s worth it. Please note-your homeowners policy does not pay for damage caused by water coming in at or below ground level. You will need a separate flood insurance policy for that. Also take note of your deductible. For a named storm, it is often a percentage of the value of your home instead of the standard, fixed amount deductible.
Side note – most adjusters working a hurricane or major event are catastrophe adjusters, and they get paid as a percentage of your estimate. Meaning, the larger your estimate, the more they get paid. It is in their best interest to make sure you get everything coming to you. They really are there to help you get the most from your policy.


Good advice.

Also, the WYO carriers who sell you your flood policy only make money by paying claims, and they are also paid on a percentage basis. The program was established this way to provide an incentive to pay claims. Of course, unless you are buying flood insurance as part of a home loan, there is a 30 day waiting period. However,if you live in a flood prone location, it is a good idea to get it rolling...especially this season.
You know,they need to give oz another chance,everyone deserves one,he was a real asset to The blog with his live chasing streams and seasonal sat loops,ect
4128. angiest
Quoting songman77:
Third bit of advice-Depreciation. Depreciation is simply the difference between what something is worth now and what it would cost to replace it. This is where you need to read your policy. Some policies do not pay depreciation, meaning they will only pay what your home is worth now, not what it would cost to repair it. If your policy does pay depreciation, it is often paid as a second installment, and you have to ask for it. I’ve learned that many adjusters do not explain depreciation well and the homeowners think that the first payment is all they get from the company. Read everything you get from the insurance company, and if you don’t understand something, ask the adjuster. It’s part of his job to make sure you understand your settlement.
Sorry for the books, hope I helped someone,


My two cents. Last December we had a leak in the house that did a fair amount of damage (carpets mostly, some property and minor dwelling damage). My insurance company tried to do the depreciation thing, which seemed fishy. Since I didn't have my policy on me I did some digging around the State of Texas' insurance website. Seems that, of the roughly half a dozen standardized policies in Texas (each state is different), only one allows depreciation of the dwelling, and I knew I didn't have that type. After working with the agency I also found that I have a rider for replacement cost on personal property. After taking that information to the insurance company I got a lot more money out of them and didn't have to do the submitting receipts to get the rest of the depreciated value.

Bottom line: Know your policy, and have a passing knowledge of your state's insurance laws.
Quoting leelee75k:
*aunts* bwahahaha

sorry I couldn't help it


is there not a story with aunts and hurricanes?
I sure would love to hear it.
Beautifull story but i cannot remember the details.Someone go can tell the relation aunts/hurricane?
Thank you,
Quoting songman77:
Third bit of advice-Depreciation. Depreciation is simply the difference between what something is worth now and what it would cost to replace it. This is where you need to read your policy. Some policies do not pay depreciation, meaning they will only pay what your home is worth now, not what it would cost to repair it. If your policy does pay depreciation, it is often paid as a second installment, and you have to ask for it. I’ve learned that many adjusters do not explain depreciation well and the homeowners think that the first payment is all they get from the company. Read everything you get from the insurance company, and if you don’t understand something, ask the adjuster. It’s part of his job to make sure you understand your settlement.
Sorry for the books, hope I helped someone,


Books are welcome when full of good 'gouge'. Policy original is in the 'go box', photo copy in the safe box. :)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 311457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN A DECREASE IN THE DVORAK NUMBERS AND IN AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE TO 939 MB. THIS APPARENT WEAKENING IS MOST LIKELY RELATED
TO AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS INDICATED BY THE DOUBLE
EYE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA AT 1035 UTC. HOWEVER...AN
AVERAGE OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR EARL TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF
THE OUTER EYEWALL SHRINKS. DESPITE THE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...
EARL MOST LIKELY WILL RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WOBBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
AVERAGE MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. EARL HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP EARL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS AND IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.


GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE
HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 21.2N 67.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 22.3N 69.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 24.8N 71.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 27.3N 73.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 75.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 43.5N 66.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 52.5N 57.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
4132. Dunkman
Reading the discussion, WNW for the next 24-48 hrs, it looks like someone forgot to redraw the cone.
4133. bswigg
Quoting pvbeachbum:


Thanks Songman - your posts were quite informative and I have saved the information - hope I will never need to use it, but being on a barrier island on the east coast of Florida, it is good information to have!



Florida got rid of holding depreciation after the 2004 hurricane fiasco with the insurance companies and contractors trying to do the work on a timely matter.
4134. divdog
Quoting Relix:
Fiona

At 8AM it was at 15.8 54.4
At 11: 15.9 55.3

.1N and .9W. Yup, NHC already missing this one lol. I trust the NHC but they have dropped the ball hard so far.
from nhc discussion:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/21 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...
FIONA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL TO THE
NORTHWEST
First significant 4-5 day shift in the cone for Fiona. Has it re curving going West of Bermuda and out to sea. Hopefully she won't cause too much problems for areas affected by Earl Already.
Great now im in the white part of the cone even better! :/
Quoting Alockwr21:
Did anyone see the special on the National Geographic Channel about Katrina? I think it was called "Witness: Katrina"...watched it last night; incredible, powerful, emotional stuff...
I watched it too. Sad.
And oz steph abrams already beat u to the obx,if u see her can u please give her my number,thanks:)
4140. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:
ONe thing of most important. If for some reason Earl would loose some punch and not be a Cat.3 he will move further West. I hope you all understand that stronger storm would move further East and likely out to Sea. So, in this case we probably want Earl to be a Cat. 5 if my thesis would be correct.


It's more complicated than that. For a developing system that is most often true, however a hurricane that has already become a major has already acquired great depth in the atmosphere and that will not just go away if the storm weakens to a Cat 1 or 2. Hurricanes do not lose all of their presence in the atmospheric column once they have gained it. Thus, Earl can't be treated as a shallower storm if he weakens, unless he loses a lot of his convection which is unlikely.
Henry Margusity predicts a category 5 before the days out.
Quoting leelee75k:
*aunts* bwahahaha

sorry I couldn't help it
With all respect to the dear departed that was a Freudian slip and 1/2. Shrink would have a hay day.
4144. RickWPB
11 AM Discussion...

The eye has become obscured on visible images and this is reflected
in a decrease in the Dvorak numbers and in an increase in the
pressure to 939 mb. This apparent weakening is most likely related
to an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle as indicated by the double
eye structure observed on microwave data at 1035 UTC. However...an
average of the flight-level winds and SFMR data from the Air Force
reconnaissance plane still supports an initial intensity of 115
knots. No change in intensity is expected today but there is a
chance for Earl to strengthen a little during the next 24 hours if
the outer eyewall shrinks. Despite the fluctuations in intensity...
Earl most likely will retain category four status for the next 48
hours. A gradual weakening should begin thereafter as the shear
increases.


Earl has continued to wobble during the past few hours but the
average motion is toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 12
knots.
Earl has been steered by the flow around a subtropical ridge
extending from the eastern United States eastward across the
Atlantic. This pattern will keep Earl on a general west-northwest
to northwest track during the next 24 to 48 hours. Thereafter...the
subtropical ridge will move east and Earl will likely turn north and
northeast between the ridge and mid-level trough over the eastern
United States. This is the scenario provided by most of the
dynamical models. The official forecast has shifted a little to the
west before 48 hours and is on the western edge of the guidance
envelope.



Given the track and the large area of tropical storm force winds...a
Hurricane Watch will likely be required for a portion of the
mid-Atlantic coast later today.
Interests from the Carolinas
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Earl.
There is still considerable uncertainty as to how close the
hurricane will come to the U.S. East Coast.




Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 31/1500z 21.2n 67.9w 115 kt
12hr VT 01/0000z 22.3n 69.7w 115 kt
24hr VT 01/1200z 24.8n 71.7w 120 kt
36hr VT 02/0000z 27.3n 73.5w 115 kt
48hr VT 02/1200z 30.5n 75.0w 115 kt
72hr VT 03/1200z 36.5n 73.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 04/1200z 43.5n 66.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 05/1200z 52.5n 57.0w 55 kt...Post-trop/extratrop


$$
forecaster Avila
when is DR. gonna post another write up? waited til the 11 run before going to work hoping to hear something from him. Ya'll are doing a great job keeping me informed but I wanted to hear what the Doc had to say about it all.

I guess i'll read it tonight. ya'll have a good day!
Quoting apocalyps:


Earl is wobbling to florida.A lot of wobbles makes a track.


I think it wobbles a lot now because it's running into that dry high pressure system.
4147. Relix
Quoting divdog:
from nhc discussion:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/21 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...
FIONA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL TO THE
NORTHWEST


Yeah I remember a discussion like that from a few days ago for Hurricane Earl. Look where that ended up.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

Why does everything seem to be flowing to Florida in these images. I know it is a few hours old and things change and i am far from trying to say this coming to Florida but have noticed the past few days here in south florida the weather has been coming in this general direction and it would seem that it still is. We received 6" of rain in a few hours the other night and the flow is still the same. New here pls be kind. Just asking ?
i do not like how this path keep moving west little every 6 hours..bad news for the northeast coast.
Not looking good for NC at all.
4151. Bonedog
this is going to get interesting in the next 24 to 36hrs once watches start going up. If they put anything near NYC watch out!!

How soon do you think history channel will put up the NYC hurricane show? Then It could happen tomorrow will run it and so on and so forth.

Uggg... rolls eyes

And we had our leaves and vacas cancelled to be on duty with Earl. Going to be fun times..

fun times...

=/
Quoting stillwaiting:
And oz steph abrams already beat u to the obx,if u see her can u please give her my number,thanks:)


+1
I live in Kitty Hawk, NC on the Outer Banks (OBX) of NC. I am in DC right now and have not been home in weeks. Do I or don't I drive back down, pull in the lawn furniture, planters, chain down a 500 pound trailer and 12 foot (350 pounds) sailboat, etc. Our home is one mile west and 65 miles north of Cape Hatteras. So do I drive back down this afternoon, do my business and come back up or just skip it. A factor in my decision is that I am in DC caring for an ill family member and would rather not leave her, if it REALLY isn't necessary. Thank you.
Quoting mtyspider:


1800 it's a joke check direct casualties for both mitch and fifi and compare. i was picking bodies even 15 days afterwards.. out of river banks. So hummm crazy i guess not i just pointing out, that i do understand why some people get all ptsd on hurricane season.

Specially first responders.Just because it didn't happen in the us. doesn't mean loved ones didn't die.


I can understand your feelings about people here negating storms that don't make landfall in the CONUS; it's something we all recognize as being a fault, but to come at it from the opposite direction is every bit as wrong.

Globally people recognized Katrina as a disaster of Biblical proportions; it was incredibly bad and if it had happened in Haiti or the Dominican Republic the loss of life would have exponentially worse but to say things like "1800 it's a joke" not only minimizes the pain and suffering that happened in the States, but it also flies in the face of those that died in Mitch and Fifi

Two wrongs don't make a right, man
4155. guygee
Earl's convection hitting the wall along 70W.
gotta run out ......everyone have a good day.
4159. divdog
Quoting Relix:


Yeah I remember a discussion like that from a few days ago for Hurricane Earl. Look where that ended up.
wow you act like the nhc should have every storm nailed down to the millimeter. This is forecasting not connect the dots.
Wait... the "+1" gave me a hint .. I'm THE TROLL??? You're gonna listen to that snobby MET scottsvb?? He's wrong! I'm not a troll.
Quoting OuterBanker:
I live in Kitty Hawk, NC on the Outer Banks (OBX) of NC. I am in DC right now and have not been home in weeks. Do I or don't I drive back down, pull in the lawn furniture, planters, chain down a 500 pound trailer and 12 foot (350 pounds) sailboat, etc. Our home is one mile west and 65 miles north of Cape Hatteras. So do I drive back down this afternoon, do my business and come back up or just skip it. A factor in my decision is that I am in DC caring for an ill family member and would rather not leave her, if it REALLY isn't necessary. Thank you.


Go take care of home. Even if Earl just brushes the OBX, the NW quadrant will have the most winds and surge, so even a glancing blow will cause significant damage.
4162. FLdewey
I can see Stephanie Abrahams reporting on the Bomb Squad being on the beach in the Outer Banks as Oz stumbles around in the background.
Storm, thanks for your knowledgeable info.
POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS.
4165. Relix
Quoting divdog:
wow you act like the nhc should have every storm nailed down to the millimeter. This is forecasting not connect the dots.


I know. i said I trust them. But when you miss a forecast of over 400 miles you know something's wrong. Especially when they repeat an event will happen during the next 24 hours and it doesn't so they copy and paste it to the next advisory. I trust them but I am disappointed at the moment. I would trust StormW more than them right now.
4167. Vero1
Quoting reedzone:
Wait... the "+1" gave me a hint .. I'm THE TROLL??? You're gonna listen to that snobby MET scottsvb?? He's wrong! I'm not a troll.


I agreed with you!! I know your are not one!!
4168. angiest
Quoting Relix:


Yeah I remember a discussion like that from a few days ago for Hurricane Earl. Look where that ended up.


People don't want to hear that.

Many runs of GFS had Earl following Danielle and gitting killed by her. Danielle was a success for the models and forecast AFAICT, but they are not doing so well with Earl. Fiona is still up in the air.
Quoting reedzone:
Wait... the "+1" gave me a hint .. I'm THE TROLL??? You're gonna listen to that snobby MET scottsvb?? He's wrong! I'm not a troll.


LOL!
My two cents. Last December we had a leak in the house that did a fair amount of damage (carpets mostly, some property and minor dwelling damage). My insurance company tried to do the depreciation thing, which seemed fishy. Since I didn't have my policy on me I did some digging around the State of Texas' insurance website. Seems that, of the roughly half a dozen standardized policies in Texas (each state is different), only one allows depreciation of the dwelling, and I knew I didn't have that type. After working with the agency I also found that I have a rider for replacement cost on personal property. After taking that information to the insurance company I got a lot more money out of them and didn't have to do the submitting receipts to get the rest of the depreciated value.

Bottom line: Know your policy, and have a passing knowledge of your state's insurance laws.


As an aside, Flood insurance is not regulated by state law. The SFIP is codified federal law and only regulated by such. Howeverr, your state laws will apply to your H/O or WInd policy.

Regarding depreciation, you are entitled to RCV (Replacement Cost Value) under your SFIP if the home is your primary residence and you are insured up to 80% of the value. If not, you will only receive ACV (Actual Cost Value), which is less depreciation.
4171. Jax82
Quoting OuterBanker:
I live in Kitty Hawk, NC on the Outer Banks (OBX) of NC. I am in DC right now and have not been home in weeks. Do I or don't I drive back down, pull in the lawn furniture, planters, chain down a 500 pound trailer and 12 foot (350 pounds) sailboat, etc. Our home is one mile west and 65 miles north of Cape Hatteras. So do I drive back down this afternoon, do my business and come back up or just skip it. A factor in my decision is that I am in DC caring for an ill family member and would rather not leave her, if it REALLY isn't necessary. Thank you.


I would keep careful watch on every advisory today. If hurricane watches go up in your area I would be more concerned. You'll have to figure out how much time it would take you to get there, get your stuff done and get out. You dont want to make a mistake of getting stuck there. Personal items can always be replaced, but people cant.
Quoting reedzone:
Wait... the "+1" gave me a hint .. I'm THE TROLL??? You're gonna listen to that snobby MET scottsvb?? He's wrong! I'm not a troll.


DEFINITELY not a troll.....12 years old maybe, but not a troll. LOL
now Earl keeps on going WNW i think i will start to prepare myself.Better safe then sorry.
4174. markot
what is going on,,,first it was turn last night then this morning then later today...it is not feeling the trof....
I wonder if dry air may be getting to Earl. Some of the western side cold cloud tops as seen on infrared seem to be pretty thin on visible, and also there are many outflow boundaries on the west side as well, a sign that there may be some dry air over there.

Quoting Vero1:


I agreed with you!! I know your are not one!!


Gotta be clearer on that lol.. scottsvb has made his career on wunderground to demolish me, having people ignore me, which he has done already. I'm really surprised he hasn't gotten banned yet.
Good Morning......Only point of note is that the "turn" forecast by the models is certainly taking the Trof approaching from the West into consideration in terms of the timing. Looking at the WV loops of the Eastern Conus, the Trof looks pretty strong at the moment and the leading edge stretches from about Texas to the Great Lakes at the moment......Looking pretty good so far as long as it does not stall or weaken.......The timing will make the difference as to how close the core of Earl gets to the US coastline me thinks.
Quoting reedzone:


I forecast Danielle to recurve a bit east of Bermuda, but had a 10% chance of it heading further west, I had my reasons. My main track was east of Bermuda.


Didn't you have a map with arrows going in all directions? I believe someone calucated a 1680 mile wide "cone" on danielle2.jpg.

Correct me if I'm wrong.
4180. TDogg
Quoting reedzone:
Wait... the "+1" gave me a hint .. I'm THE TROLL??? You're gonna listen to that snobby MET scottsvb?? He's wrong! I'm not a troll.


That was pretty funny. Since you're not on my Ignore list, you're pretty safe with me!
Was just reading the local news blog here and it seems that no one on the Eastern Shore is taking this seriously. One comment about hurricane preparedness - yeah we do get hit hard every time 1 floats by huh. i like watching ppl gather up 48 gallons of milk. 309 cans of food. 5 bags of cereal. topping opp 500 gallons of gas. all for maybe 3 inches of rain and a lil hail.

One day that blogger may just eat his words.


Typhoon Kompasu could make landfall on Seoul as a category one typhoon. From there, it will likely enter the Sea of Japan then cross the Kuroshio Current in the Pacific, where it could re-strengthen to a TS. This could create more eddies in the current (analogous to the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic), setting up the scene for more tropical storms there and a strong Pineapple Express later in the season, as well as stronger warm anomalies invading the PDO.

Looking through the historical tropical cyclones, not one tropical storm has struck the Seoul area since 1945 that is stronger than the (estimated 145 km/h) winds expected from Kompasu for the area. The current track would make the typhoon the strongest to affect Seoul in over 65 years. The closest example I could find was Typhoon Prapiroon in 2000, which hit the North/South Korea border, killing 46 people and causing $6 billion USD in damage.

Quoting efallon28:


DEFINITELY not a troll.....12 years old maybe, but not a troll. LOL


Let the record be shown I am 21 years old and have a good job.
4185. 7544
another west wobble going toward the se bahamas hmmmmmm
4186. Levi32
000
WTNT42 KNHC 311457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN A DECREASE IN THE DVORAK NUMBERS AND IN AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE TO 939 MB. THIS APPARENT WEAKENING IS MOST LIKELY RELATED
TO AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS INDICATED BY THE DOUBLE
EYE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA AT 1035 UTC. HOWEVER...AN
AVERAGE OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR EARL TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF
THE OUTER EYEWALL SHRINKS. DESPITE THE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...
EARL MOST LIKELY WILL RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES.


EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WOBBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
AVERAGE MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. EARL HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP EARL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS AND IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE
HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Wow really....shear? Hmm, again not really a problem until the post-Carolina part of the track. This massive area of dry air standing in the way of Earl is his problem and is what is weakening him now, outside of the normal EWRC fluctuation. There is no mention of this dry air in the discussion? How odd. I doubt we'll see Cat 4 intensity maintained for the next 48 hours, but we'll see.

It's dry air, not shear:

Quoting oracle28:


Didn't you have a map with arrows going in all directions? I believe someone calucated a 1680 mile wide "cone" on danielle2.jpg.

Correct me if I'm wrong.


Here's my first run on Danielle, which there was uncertainty.

Photobucket

4190. angiest
Quoting divdog:
wow you act like the nhc should have every storm nailed down to the millimeter. This is forecasting not connect the dots.


This is not a minor forecasting error (from 24 hours ago)

earl verification
Quoting reedzone:
Wait... the "+1" gave me a hint .. I'm THE TROLL??? You're gonna listen to that snobby MET scottsvb?? He's wrong! I'm not a troll.

mtyspider brotha...
Quoting oracle28:


Didn't you have a map with arrows going in all directions? I believe someone calucated a 1680 mile wide "cone" on danielle2.jpg.

Correct me if I'm wrong.


No, you're right on. Reedzone basically had the entire Eastern Atlantic as a "possibility"
Quoting DestinJeff:


maybe she'll get a ride on the robot


+10
Still a 1.2W to 0.7N heading...that's still nearly 2 to 1 ratio W vs N.


they have pressure up slightly again, but winds are officially still the same at 135mph...
I love to watch the waves ripple across that bed of dry air to Earl's west. Fascinating to watch this. I wonder if there is a name for these waves?

4197. hydrus
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS.
Lose the majuscule text Jay...Good job with your forecast on Danielle by the way. Earl trying hard for complete eyewall...
4198. Vero1
NEW Blog
Its moving WNW but the cone is straight off to the NW, doesn't make sense. I'd be hitting the stores now and tonight before the mad rush kicks in. Even if it misses the coast, this thing is coming up the back door
reed: you are not the one being ignored.
Quoting reedzone:


Let the record be shown I am 21 years old and have a good job.


It was a joke, no worries.

NEW BLOG!!
4202. beell
Just for the sake of nice, round numbers, call the first frame 20N 66.5W

Second frame, 21N 67.5W
7 hrs, 316°

06:15 UTC

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13:15 UTC

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new blog..
4204. will40
Quoting OuterBanker:
I live in Kitty Hawk, NC on the Outer Banks (OBX) of NC. I am in DC right now and have not been home in weeks. Do I or don't I drive back down, pull in the lawn furniture, planters, chain down a 500 pound trailer and 12 foot (350 pounds) sailboat, etc. Our home is one mile west and 65 miles north of Cape Hatteras. So do I drive back down this afternoon, do my business and come back up or just skip it. A factor in my decision is that I am in DC caring for an ill family member and would rather not leave her, if it REALLY isn't necessary. Thank you.


I am sorry that you are stuck with such a tough decision. You want to take of family and are worried about your property which i understand. Only prob is that propty can be replaced.Your family one cant. And on another note if you are late getting to the island they may not even let you go on it.Like i said it is a very tough decision and hopefully he stays off shore.
Quoting angiest:


This is not a minor forecasting error (from 24 hours ago)

earl verification


Excellent point ... Earl keeps getting pushed westward, every chance he gets.
Quoting apocalyps:
Long time lurker first time poster.
Just trying to learn here.
I think Earl wants to surf on Miami Beach.


Superior first post!
Levi:


yes, there is dry air, but it is still very far away from the CDO.

heck, I've seen cat 5 storms that have dry air practically adjacent to the CDO...so that's still plenty room to maintain or even strengthen.

It's when you see bands of dry air actually getting engulfed by a storm, then you know it's a goner. Right now, I see no real evidence of that happening just yet.
4208. BlogCop
Quoting FLdewey:
I can see Stephanie Abrahams reporting on the Bomb Squad being on the beach in the Outer Banks as Oz stumbles around in the background.


Yup! I can see it now.

4209. 2COOL
Can anyone tell me what kind of storm surge might be expected...or how this could affect Maryland? Many thanks!!
Am I interpreting this right. The lastest NHC track now has a direct hit on southwestern Nova Scotia as a cat 3 in the 93hr time frame?
like this NEW BLOG!!!!
4212. angiest
Quoting PEISLANDER:
Am I interpreting this right. The lastest NHC track now has a direct hit on southwestern Nova Scotia as a cat 3 in the 93hr time frame?

Looks like cat 1 to me.
TruthCommish - apocalyps is not exactly a first time poster. Look at the 'Member Since' line at the bottom of the post, unless that reply was sarcasm. In that case I will go back to lurking. In my case I am a long(ish)-time lurker,
4214. usa777
Could someone possibly post yesterdays nhc projected path compared to todays path? Curious to see just how far off the nhc has been on the projected path. Thanks in advance.
Quoting songman77:
Third bit of advice-Depreciation. Depreciation is simply the difference between what something is worth now and what it would cost to replace it. This is where you need to read your policy. Some policies do not pay depreciation, meaning they will only pay what your home is worth now, not what it would cost to repair it. If your policy does pay depreciation, it is often paid as a second installment, and you have to ask for it. I’ve learned that many adjusters do not explain depreciation well and the homeowners think that the first payment is all they get from the company. Read everything you get from the insurance company, and if you don’t understand something, ask the adjuster. It’s part of his job to make sure you understand your settlement.
Sorry for the books, hope I helped someone,


A word about depreciation: in general, there are two types of depreciation, recoverable, and non-recoverable. Recoverable depreciation is paid to you after the repairs have been completed; some carriers will want to have an adjuster re-inspect to verify the repairs have been completed, others will take copies of your paid repair invoices and release the money form that. Most items in your estimate will be recoverable; the information is in your policy so you will need to read it and make sure you understand it.

Non-recoverable depreciation is just that: money that is taken from an item in the estimate that will not be repaid. Typically fences, carpeting and in some cases roofing are ACV (actual cash value) items.

As songman states, depreciation is based on the current cash value of an item; for example, a roof with a useful service life of 25 years that has been on your home for 10 years would typically be depreciated 40% but depreciation is subjective; if I walk your 10 year old roof and it looks like it's 5 years old I will certainly depreciate it less than 40%...

One final word: mitigation. Your policy will have a paragraph dedicated to what your responsibilities are post storm; you are responsible for making sure that the damage gets no worse. If your roof is compromised, you need to get a tarp on it...if you have a blown out window, you're responsible for boarding it up. After hurricanes and other large scale natural disasters most carriers will be a little more lax about these things because they know that contractors that do that sort of work will be overloaded, but you have to take some action to ensure that your home takes no more damage.

I'll go one step further with this: if you have any questions about any of this, feel free to WUMail me; if the load becomes too great I can't guarantee that I'll answer every one, but I will do my best
Quoting will40:


I am sorry that you are stuck with such a tough decision. You want to take of family and are worried about your property which i understand. Only prob is that propty can be replaced.Your family one cant. And on another note if you are late getting to the island they may not even let you go on it.Like i said it is a very tough decision and hopefully he stays off shore.


Do you have any neighbors that will help you out??
4217. Bayside
Quoting 2COOL:
Can anyone tell me what kind of storm surge might be expected...or how this could affect Maryland? Many thanks!!


I was just going to post this Link

This helped a lot with understanding the surge for us in the lower chesapeake during the November Nor'easter last year. It has already changed to a little higher than what it was showing this morning for thursday/friday in Hampton roads, so I check it pretty often when surge is a concern. It's just another tool to have in your toolbox though.

Hampton Roads:


Ocean City:
4218. 2COOL
Floodman, do you foresee need for many adjusters after Earl sweeps thru...or do you think mostly it's the beach sand affected?...or is it just too early to tell!? I'm wondering about whether I should get the state licenses?!!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey John,
Just got an Email from Oz that i just posted. He has my Cell # if you need anything done from this end to assist you both. You all be carefull!


Thanks Tampa! I appreciate that....
Rick Knabb just said a direct hit on OBX is possible, and he also just said some models are trending to a path right up the coast. This is the first time I've heard him say this. He wasn't saying this 3 hours ago.
Quoting guygee:
Earl's convection hitting the wall along 70W.


You can clearly see on the WV loop that cold dry air mass overtaking the DR/Haiti.

Thanks for the Update Storm!

Unfortunately, interesting doesn't mean fun in this case. No hysteria here in SNE, just watching very closely....
Regarding neighbors, I live in a small subdivision of 24 duplexes and I am about the youngest person at age 60. I have three widowers in their 70s and I am concerned about them also. I know they need assistance, if there is work to do. They may need assistance off the OBX. Also, I would never jeopardize myself, I would be long gone before the bridges were closed. I wish it was as simple as furniture=dead, let's not get dead.
4223. flsky
"Atlantic Seaboard oil refiners eye Hurricane Earl"
Link
I hope people in NC are preparing for Earl.
The trough that is supposed to move the High over the mid
Atlantic states is not looking as strong today. I am thinking
more and more the OBX are gonna take a full on hit.

Eiher way this is gonna be the closest call of a major cane since
proably Isabel and Fran for the east coast.

Stay ahead of the Game by being prepared in advance especially
if you live in those area's along the coast.

StormW,

Thanks for all of the info you keep putting out. What are the percentages that this track keeps pushing west? I live in Va. Beach, (about 100 miles N of Hatteras) and we dealt with Isabel. I know it's kind of early but what are the odds we see some hurricane force winds out of this?
4226. WXHam
Quoting will40:


I am sorry that you are stuck with such a tough decision. You want to take of family and are worried about your property which i understand. Only prob is that propty can be replaced.Your family one cant. And on another note if you are late getting to the island they may not even let you go on it.Like i said it is a very tough decision and hopefully he stays off shore.


Will ... go to www.wavy.com this from the Navy:
NORFOLK, Va. (WAVY) - The Commander of Navy Region Mid-Atlantic set Hurricane Condition 4 at all Navy Region Mid-Atlantic installations on Tuesday morning. This includes all installations in Hampton Roads.

Hurricane Condition Four means the Navy believes destructive winds are possible within 72 hours.

Officials say ships in the Hampton Roads area are prepared to get underway in order to evade the hurricane, if forecasted conditions dictate. Other area operations are continuing as normal as commands make hurricane preparations. These preparations include securing all hazards throughout the installations, removing debris from drainage areas and sandbagging low-lying areas.

The Navy advises all personnel and their families to review their hurricane checklists and evacuation plans in the event an evacuation is necessary.
on roanoke island in wanchese. we are hauling yschts and getting ready. small swell looks to be showing up on the oceanfront. thanks to all for the good, in depth info here. govt agencies have to worry too much about politics especially around major holiday$ .
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
This is an interesting TV special on Donna 9/11/1960. Another storm that was forecast to go to the north and stay out to sea.



Both my parents went thru Donna here in Fort Myers and always reference that storm when talking of hurricanes. Coming up on 9/10, I will be doing an extensive Donna tribute on my website. That storm is a little more personal than some others to our family. Hit Marathon with 180+ mph winds...incredible storm...nice video post...