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Earl: 3rd strongest hurricane on record so far north in U.S. coastal waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:36 PM GMT on September 02, 2010

Hurricane Earl strengthened significantly overnight, and its Category 4 140 mph winds make it the third strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north in U.S. coastal waters. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961 and Hurricane Connie of 1955 made it farther north in U.S. coastal waters at a higher strength. Both storms had winds 5 mph stronger than Earl--145 mph. One other Atlantic hurricane was stronger than Esther and Connie at a more northerly latitude--the second storm of 1922, which had winds of 150 mph. However, this hurricane was far out at sea, north of Bermuda.

Earl has made its turn to the north, and is headed for a close brush with North Carolina's Outer Banks. Rain bands from the hurricane are now visible on long-range Cape Hatteras radar, and these rain bands will begin to spread over coastal North Carolina this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows an extremely impressive major hurricane, that will be resistant to sudden changes in intensity.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Earl taken at 2pm EDT September 1, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, through Friday morning. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 9:30am EDT Thursday, September 2, 2010. Note the asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 18 mph to the north-northwest at the time. The highest contour has top winds of 110 kt (130 mph) surrounding the "X" on the NNE side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds in the left front quadrant (on the SSW side) were just 80 - 85 knots (92 - 97 mph.) Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 99 Terrajoules for Earl, at 9:30am EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 4.9 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a similar destructive power, 4.9 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules, higher than Category 4 Earl's.

Impact of Earl on North Carolina
Earl's eye is expected to stay offshore of North Carolina. However, much of coastal North Carolina will experience tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph for a period of 12 - 18 hours beginning this afternoon or early this evening. Earl's expected radius of hurricane-force winds of 90 miles to the west may bring hurricane conditions to the Outer Banks, but probably not to mainland North Carolina. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the west, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Wilmington to Norfolk could see sustained winds of 40 mph. Storm surge will likely be less than two feet along the North Carolina coast west of Cape Hatteras facing the open ocean, since winds will be offshore. However, a significant storm surge of 3 - 5 feet can be expected on the south side of Pamlico Sound, due to strong northerly winds. A 3 - 5 foot storm surge is also likely along the Outer Banks from Cape Hatteras northward 50 miles to Nags Head. NHC is giving a 10% chance that the storm surge will reach 7 - 9 feet along the coast near Nags Head. It is possible that Coastal Highway 12 out of the Outer Banks will be blocked by sand and debris, or washed out, resulting in a multi-day period where everyone on the Outer Banks will be stranded. Since Earl's forward speed will be about 20 mph as it passes Cape Hatteras, the winds on the hurricane's west side will be about 40 mph less than on the east side (Figure 2.) (I regret that I misstated this yesterday. To think about this, imagine a stationary hurricane with 120 mph winds on all sides. Now, put the hurricane in motion. The winds are still 120 mph on all sides, relative to a frame of reference that moves with the storm, but an observer on the ground will see 140 mph winds in the right front quadrant, and 100 mph on the left side.) The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 13% chance of hurricane-force winds on Cape Hatteras, 1% for Morehead City, and no chance for Norfolk, Virginia.


Figure 3. NHC is giving a 10% chance that the storm surge will reach heights of 7 - 9 feet along the Outer Banks of North Carolina near Nags Head. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Impact of Earl on New England
Residents in Eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts need to complete all of their hurricane preparations by early Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, winds will rise quickly. Earl's recent increase in strength means that New England will see a stronger hurricane than was expected. The latest track forecasts still keep the eye barely offshore, or have it passing over Nantucket and the extreme eastern tip of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The 5am NHC intensity forecast calls for Earl to have top winds of 100 mph at 2am Saturday, when the storm is expected to be over or just offshore of the eastern tip of Cape Cod. Earl will be moving near 25 mph at that time, meaning that that top sustained winds on the north side of the eye, over land, will be 50 mph, and the winds will be 100 mph on the south side over water. NHC is giving a 10% chance that a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet will occur in Long Island Sound (Figure 4), and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A small deviation in Earl's track to the left, resulting in a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10+ billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a 7 - 15 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 3%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 28% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 7% in Providence, 4% in Boston, 7% in Eastport, Maine, and 17% in Hyannis.


Figure 4. NHC is giving a 10% chance that the storm surge will reach heights of 3 - 5 feet from Long Island Sound to Southeast Massachusetts. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Impact of Earl on Canada
Winds will begin to rise on the southwest coast of Nova Scotia early Saturday morning, and all preparations need to be completed by Friday night. By late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl will probably be a Category 1 hurricane. Earl will be moving at a very rapid 25 - 30 mph when it arrives in Canada, and regions on the right side of the eye can expect winds 50 - 60 mph greater than on the left side, due to the fast forward motion of the hurricane. It is unlikely that Earl will be as damaging as Hurricane Juan, the 2003 Category 2 hurricane which made a direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia, causing over $200 million in damage. Earl's impact is likely to be greater than 2008's Hurricane Kyle, the last hurricane to hit Nova Scotia. Kyle hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 14% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, and 4% in Halifax.

Beach erosion
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves today and Friday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves are expected to reach 25 - 30 feet along the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina shore tonight. Beach erosion damage in the mid-Atlantic states will likely run into the millions, but will probably not be as bad as that suffered during Nor'easter Ida in November of 2009. That storm (the remains of Hurricane Ida that developed into a Nor'easter) remained off the coast for several days, resulting in a long-duration pounding of the shore that caused $300 million in damage--$180 million in New Jersey alone.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Wind shear from Earl and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday.

Gaston
Tropical Depression Gaston has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms this morning, as it battles dry air. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development for the next few days. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. Assuming Gaston can fight off the dry air--which seems likely, given the low shear--the storm should be able to intensify into a hurricane by Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston appears likely to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. Historically, 25% of all tropical cyclones at Gaston's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast.

Special Hurricane Earl Update At 4:30 pm EDT on the Weather Underground Broadcast Network
The Weather Underground Broadcast Network will air a special edition of the Daily Downpour featuring meteorologists Rob Carver, Tim Roche, Shaun Tanner, and myself. This live update will feature the most up-to-date information on this dangerous storm and its possible effects on the East Coast.

There will be a three ways to contact the show panelists:

1. Call 415-983-2634 to ask specific questions about anything tropical related.

2. Send an email to broadcast@wunderground.com, and your email may be read on the air.

3. The chat room on the Weather Underground Broadcast Network homepage will be monitored throughout the broadcast for any related questions.

Lastly, if you are along the East Coast somewhere that could be affected by Hurricane Earl, we want to hear from you during the broadcast. Tell us what local officials are doing to prepare for Earl, and how it is affecting you. Please call 415-983-2634 or email broadcast@wunderground.com with your experiences.

Listen to the live, special broadcast beginning 4:30 p.m. EDT, 1:30 p.m PDT, by going to the Weather Underground Broadcast Network.

Links to follow today
Cape Hatteras weather
Cape Hatteras radar

Next post
I'll have an update late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

IT SEEMS LIKE CAPE HATTERAS WILL TAKE THE EYE OF EARL BIG TIME
1002. Patrap
Quoting kshipre1:
patrap,

can you send me the link that shows the NHC link that you posted?


Just click on the Highlighted area in post 994 and bookmark. Im a tad busy with stuff here,,a call with Presslord and my Lite Lunch.
Quoting StormW:


No...that's WHY they invented beer! LOL!


Good point! I'll drink to that!

BTW, I saw a Mexican Coast Guard (Navy) boat today. They are ugly! I'll show you a pic. How would you like to be on one of those?

Reminds me of a scow, especially the stern lines.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Is Cyclone Oz Reporting?


yes...7674u.com
pilotguy1 thanx
1007. KY50
Vero1 - blog #989...

Can you post a source link??
Please do not type in all caps. It's considered yelling.
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Can you use another word other than retarded? I find that offensive.
Fools?
1010. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI


Quoting StormW:


No...that's WHY they invented beer! LOL!


No, they invented beer so we didn't have to eat granola for breakfast
Quoting StormW:


Probably 5-7 days




i find it odd that where seeing this many storms
I made a boo boo.
1016. Levi32
It looks like North Carolina will be largely spared, though hurricane force winds could still impact the outer banks.
SW eyewall is open folks.

Earl is done for. Stick a fork in it. He's dead.

Morehead city radar proves eyewall is open.
1019. Patrap
1020. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:



i find it odd that where seeing this many storms


You shouldn't :P We knew it was coming eventually, it just came later than it was "supposed" to.
1021. ssmate
Quoting txraysfan:
I just hope he's careful! Was reading blog during Alex, and thought oh man - he's gonna get himself stuck between a rock and a hard place
He was going to get stuck between is head and his athletic cup?
Patrap if you See this ,

I Would Like to Re-eterate Something.

This Will be the First United States Landfalling Hurricane For the 2010 Season

It Will Most Likely not be the Last

Everyone Get your Hurricane Plans Ready?

Who Though the East Coast would Recieve a Major Hurricane on Labor Day Weekend this year?

No One? Point Closed.

Quoting KanKunKid:


I don't think so scooter, it's already starting.


Starting what? Are you by chance, Ron White?
I WONDER IF TWC WILL GO INTO STORM ALERT MODE
1025. angiest
Quoting Floodman:


No, they invented beer so we didn't have to eat granola for breakfast


Well, if chocolate cake is good breakfast food since it is made from wheat and eggs and milk, then I guess beer can count as cereal.
My favorite bloggers are the ones that complain about others who are talking about some other tropical system and forgetting to mention anything about what they want to talk about. So in conclusion ask your question, state your observation, render your analysis but don't kill good blog space complaining about other bloggers. Signed Sincerely, Blog Director
1027. Patrap
Current Conditions

Hatteras, North Carolina (Airport)
Updated: 21 min 48 sec ago
Overcast
80 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 29.84 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 86 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
Seems to be moving due North now.
1030. angiest
Quoting ssmate:
He was going to get stuck between is head and his athletic cup?


Not going there.
1031. angiest
Quoting StormW:


Or one that one of our meteorologist had coined here in Fla...Terminal Stupidity.


Isn't that the term for mismanagement of an airport?
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Patrap if you See this ,

I Would Like to Re-eterate Something.

This Will be the First United States Landfalling Hurricane For the 2010 Season

It Will Most Likely not be the Last

Everyone Get your Hurricane Plans Ready?

Who Though the East Coast would Recieve a Major Hurricane on Labor Day Weekend this year?

No One? Point Closed.



you mean Gaston?
1034. LemieT
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This is one HECK of a wave!


That's some menacing looking stuff. If only for sheer size, I'd say that's the potential storm of the season.
1035. Patrap
The source Radar is running 7-8 minutes behind..but Ill post um as they fall in.

<
Quoting angiest:


Well, if chocolate cake is good breakfast food since it is made from wheat and eggs and milk, then I guess beer can count as cereal.
with grapefruit juice! lol
Quoting gmboy95:
let me see if i get this straight....people are spending alot of time talking about some storm 3000 miles away....while we have a storm that if it takes even a tick to the west could effect southeastern massachusetts and providence RI and narragnassett bay....some of the most populated areas in the country????......what am I missing??
Very simple, you are missing that there are people here that live south of the lower of 48, that happens to use this blog and have to deal with CV storms first than you. we understand that you people in the east are dealing with Earl. A hurricane in the NE Caribbean that we dealt with a few days ago, while you have your eyes post on Earl, we have our eyes in a developing system that could affect us in a few days, Gaston.
Quoting angiest:


Well, if chocolate cake is good breakfast food since it is made from wheat and eggs and milk, then I guess beer can count as cereal.


Lol. Dad is great! We're eatin' chocolate cake.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Fools?


much better
Storm, he means The Weather Channel.
1042. angiest
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Dad is great! We're eatin' chocolate cake.


Bill Cosby was always funny, but he became much more so when I became a dad.
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Dang, golf tourny starts tomorrow, guess I'll have to wait for S. Carolina/USM tonight.

Not much chance of teeing off in Boston tomorrow morning........
1046. Patrap
Well unfortunately those who remained on the Eastern Most Points of the OBX are going to see something Quite remarkable tonight come Sundown,,and come morning..pray tell Hopefully no Body bags will be needed.

The Window to Leave is almost over.


1047. RickWPB
Here's another link for long range radar out of Morehead City, NC. You can see the eye in this view. Looks to me like Earl is moving a bit east of due north!

Long Range Radar Loop - Morehead
1048. vince1
Quoting Kristina40:
I'm watching the water vapor loop and Earl is actually sucking moisture across Florida from the Gulf and pulling it into his "tail"...He's a wild one.

I suspect its more than moisture Earl is sucking from the Gulf. :X
Howdy all. Evacuees, head south. Beautiful weekend expected in the FL panhandle and you can get back quickly...unless you choose to stay
Quoting StormW:


Who?


Easy Storm....
Quoting StormW:


Or one that one of our meteorologist had coined here in Fla...Terminal Stupidity.


In IT terms that would be an id10t error
Gotcha!
storm,

as in the case of Gaston (like you were mentioning in your tropical discussion earlier), if there is a large high pressure building above a storm, what dictates if it gets steered straight westward or, like Gaston it could take a more southern track?

If Gaston takes a more WNW path north of the leeward islands instead of a southerly path towards the caribbean is intensification likely not be as much since the caribbean is warmer? thanks
1054. katty5
oz is not on the air yet..
1055. Patrap
1057. angiest
Quoting Floodman:


In IT terms that would be an id10t error


PEBKAC condition.
lol love that comedy show with Bill Cosby, dad is great.....give us the chocalte cake!!
Quoting Patrap:
Well unfortunately those who remained on the Eastern Most Points of the OBX are going to see something Quite remarkable tonight come Sundown,,and come morning..pray tell Hopefully no Body bags will be needed.

The Window to Leave is almost over.




For sure a lot of power in that storm, Oz is in for a rough ride, but he´s probably best prepaired out there
Cyclone Oz is Crazy...
1061. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Gaston
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



THE WEATHER CHANNEL. U KNOW THEY GO INTO STORM ALERTMODE WHEN THE STORM GETS CLOSE.
1063. Patrap
1059.

No comment on that.
Quoting angiest:


Bill Cosby was always funny, but he became much more so when I became a dad.


He's hilarious. Parents don't want justice! We want quiet!! :) I got 2 so I never knew who broke things. Lol.
1065. BigToe
Quoting oracle28:


Starting what? Are you by chance, Ron White?


" Hit something hard, I don't wanna walk away from this sucker".
2010 is comfortably past 2009's ACE

2010:
1 Earl 22.7
2 Danielle 21.8
3 Alex 6.78
4 Fiona 2.05
5 Colin 1.95
6 Gaston 0.368
7 Bonnie 0.368

Total: 56.0

2009:
1 26.5 Bill
2 9.93 Fred
3 7.39 Ida
4 1.97 Grace
5 1.88 Danny
6 1.30 Erika
7 1.22 Henri
8 0.858 Ana
9 0.528 Claudette

Total: 51.6

1068. angiest
Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Gaston
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





One model seems to kill Gaston at the same time another has him at just under 100kts.
1069. Patrap
1070. LemieT
Quoting barbados246:
there is Barbados also


Nice nice, well at least I'm not the only Bajan who's concerned about the weather, lol. I have a suspicion based on what I am seeing on this blog that we may need to watch it this year.
Quoting oracle28:


Starting what? Are you by chance, Ron White?


Starting "landfall".

No I am not Ron White, I'm sober. He stole that from me. He may not know it, but he did.
Quoting RitaEvac:
lol love that comedy show with Bill Cosby, dad is great.....give us the chocalte cake!!
Am relatively new to blog, was just wondering how many other Texans here? With your name, am figuring you are from upper texas coast?
1074. Patrap
1075. katty5
storm just wandering when do you go into alert mode..
1076. IKE
Look...he's now back east of 75W!

1077. BigToe
Quoting StormW:


Who?


LOL Master Chief
Earl's turning out to Sea! Tropical storm conditions in the OBX and Cape Cod is all. Thanks goodness!

1079. LemieT
Quoting StormW:


Or one that one of our meteorologist had coined here in Fla...Terminal Stupidity.


Lol, I love that, terminal stupidity.
1080. angiest
Quoting IKE:
Look...he's now back east of 75W!



I didn't want to say (yet) that it looked like he may be on a heading of 3 degrees on the radar.
he's done gone NNE
Quoting StormW:


Who?


Jim Cantore, coming to a coast near you........
Quoting angiest:


One model seems to kill Gaston at the same time another has him at just under 100kts.


That's why I have been advising people to just stand by until things become a little clearer. When those of us on here start telling people stuff when actually we have no real idea it just diminishes the value of the blog. Patients truly is a virtue.
Quoting LemieT:


Nice nice, well at least I'm not the only Bajan who's concerned about the weather, lol. I have a suspicion based on what I am seeing on this blog that we may need to watch it this year.
We need to but i realise also we take so much for granted and always expect systems to by-pass us
1085. angiest
Quoting txraysfan:
Am relatively new to blog, was just wondering how many other Texans here? With your name, am figuring you are from upper texas coast?


Yo!
1086. IKE
Moving east of north?

Link
1087. Patrap
<
1076:


Shows over everybody.

You can go home now.

Nothing to see here.
Quoting txraysfan:
Am relatively new to blog, was just wondering how many other Texans here? With your name, am figuring you are from upper texas coast?


yep
over 75w not east sorry
1093. katty5
storm isnt jim cantore the greatest on the weather...he knows those hurricanes..
looks like earl is heading right up the chesapeake bay
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Cyclone Oz is Crazy...


Its a fine line between being an adrenalin junky and having a death wish....good luck Oz!
seems to be wobbling.. be good news if it was a pronounced and true move, but my thinking is it will wobble back left after this wobble to the right... wobble to the left and wobble to the right...
1097. P451
Earl still looking pretty healthy to me.

Not sure why some are acting like he's a nothing storm now and won't be affecting anyone. Kind of strange to read some comments on here actually.

Another Texan here - just lurking and learning - as always! :)
Quoting angiest:


Yo!
I'm between houston and corpus
Quoting RitaEvac:
he's done gone NNE


Bye Bye, trough is influencing now, still a lot of big, big waves and surge on the Outer Banks.........
Quoting IKE:
Look...he's now back east of 75W!



Yep, no U.S. landfall for Earl.
There are quite a few on here from Tx. All along the coast, and surround. A lot from Greater Houston area as well
tornadodude:
looks like the trough is finally kicking into gear into Illinois. Should help scoot Earl off to the NE, Storm west of Springfield moving west and some rotation with it on radar. My evening is offically packed! lol



Quoting katty5:
oz is not on the air yet..


He is on the air at Cape Point Campground. I just wonder if he will survive?
Quoting bigwes6844:
THE WEATHER CHANNEL. U KNOW THEY GO INTO STORM ALERTMODE WHEN THE STORM GETS CLOSE.


It means less commercials more often and the same clips over and over and on scene observations only "Mr Obvious" would love:

Weather desk: Is it getting windy there Jim?
Jim: (Holding his hat and his goggles) Yes, it getting windy it's a hurricane.
Weather desk: What else can our listeners expect?
Jim: Well it's going to get windier and more rain will come.
Weather desk: Blah blah blah blah.....

**click**

That is all I can take.
Quoting angiest:


Well, if chocolate cake is good breakfast food since it is made from wheat and eggs and milk, then I guess beer can count as cereal.


It's liquid Grape Nuts...
Quoting katty5:
oz is not on the air yet..
One day he'll wind up in the air he keeps playing the fool.
1108. angiest
Quoting thegoldenstrand:
seems to be wobbling.. be good news if it was a pronounced and true move, but my thinking is it will wobble back left after this wobble to the right... wobble to the left and wobble to the right...


I went out on a limb with a heading of 3 degrees. The eye is so far out still that it is hard to see it all the time. Please the inner core just isn't entirely there, it would appear. Still, everytime I look I keep coming up just a hair east of due north.
After Sundown (Part II)

Duck NC, Sunset last year.

Someone stated earlier that 1/4 of the pier at Frisco had gone. I hope not!

Frisco ~ The Outer Banks, NC.  USA

Praying for all the people this hurricane will impact! (Back to lurking)
Be a shame if after turning NE, gets pulled back NW from unexpected ridging and plows into the NY funnel
1111. katty5
how do you pick up oz i want to see this great hurricane
Quoting barbados246:
We need to but i realise also we take so much for granted and always expect systems to by-pass us


yeah the same here and now that earl didnt do much here people are going to be less caring about the next one i think
Quoting IKE:
Moving east of north?

Link


I hope it continues to pull away.


Wow getting close
Supposed to fly out of NY at 6:35pm tomorrow to go to Europe. Anyone know if the airport is going to be shut down?
1116. nw5b
Quoting Floodman:


In IT terms that would be an id10t error


When I was in IT we called it...

Operator Headspace.
1117. Levi32
Latest Earl vortex indicates a heading east of 360, which is a big milestone indicating that North Carolina won't get nailed particularly hard. Hurricane force winds could still extend to the outer banks though, and it will likely be no picnic out there.
1118. NEwxguy
Quoting P451:
Earl still looking pretty healthy to me.

Not sure why some are acting like he's a nothing storm now and won't be affecting anyone. Kind of strange to read some comments on here actually.



Their just trolls
Think things are active in the Atlantic now? Just wait:

Not to take away from Earl's immediate threat, but looking at TD (Gaston), I am amazed how much he has significantly weakenedsince yesterday, wow.. Fluctuations happen of course, but it is very hard to even sense he is there. Almost an open wave at this time. Shall see if he regenerates again soon, since there are models still showing that will happen eventually, time will tell, and yes the wave behind Gaston sure has some serious potential down the road, I believe. Stay safe all in Earl's path.
1121. ROBTX09
hey all just trying out my other account for now
1122. Patrap
1123. ssmate
I agree P451. Ominous hurricane right off our shores.
Yep he is shifting NE now. Going to be E of the official track if it doesn't get pulled back due N for a while.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Think things are active in the Atlantic now? Just wait:




ouch
1126. angiest
Is Earl about to finish an EWRC? What I take to be the inner eyewall on radar looks to be falling apart and it now looks like a larger, stronger eyewall is consolidating.
Texan and proud of it!
1128. angiest
Quoting RadarRich:
Not to take away from Earl's immediate threat, but looking at TD (Gaston), I am amazed how much he has significantly weakenedsince yesterday, wow.. Fluctuations happen of course, but it is very hard to even sense he is there. Almost an open wave at this time. Shall see if he regenerates again soon, since there are models still showing that will happen eventually, time will tell, and yes the wave behind Gaston sure has some serious potential down the road, I believe. Stay safe all in Earl's path.


Most models were originally not expecting much out of that system, perhaps for some of the same reasons he isn't doing so well now.
Quoting IKE:
Moving east of north?

Link


looks due west to me.
1130. pottery
Quoting barbados246:
We need to but i realise also we take so much for granted and always expect systems to by-pass us

Good to see some Bajans on the Blog...
Trini here.
Wunna stay safe this Season!
1131. ROBTX09
lol
oh wow! Is that a hurricane off NC?
Quoting mrpuertorico:


yeah the same here and now that earl didnt do much here people are going to be less caring about the next one i think


Earl ain't done yet......
1135. Levi32
Latest vortex indicates further weakening up to 948mb, and a significant deterioration of the core evidenced by a much lower eye temperature and smaller difference between the inside and outside of the eye. In fact, there is no definable eye according to this vortex.

000
URNT12 KNHC 022028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 02/20:06:30Z
B. 32 deg 04 min N
075 deg 04 min W
C. 700 mb 2646 m
D. 67 kt
E. 136 deg 39 nm
F. 222 deg 107 kt
G. 136 deg 41 nm
H. 948 mb
I. 13 C / 3045 m
J. 16 C / 3055 m
K. 11 C / NA

L. NA
M. NA

N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 1407A EARL OB 19
MAX FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 18:19:10Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 143 / 18 NM FROM FL CNTR
Hey guys it looks like if earl keeps going in its general heading that the outer banks will get spared the worst but of course any wobble to the west could put them in danger again and gaston well its not looking so hot right now but should get going and potentially go into the caribbean this is a storm that we all need to watch because if it goes into the caribbean well it wont be pretty.
Quoting fllamorgan:
Supposed to fly out of NY at 6:35pm tomorrow to go to Europe. Anyone know if the airport is going to be shut down?


Not scheduled to be shut down at this time, and no plan to shut down.
You to Pottery and nice meeting you
Earl is a dud.

He doesn't even have an eyewall any more.

RIP

000
WTNT44 KNHC 022033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DROPSONDES FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS
OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING ONLY IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER.

THE REMNANT LOW IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS PREDICT SOME BUILDING OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
INDICATES A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.5N 39.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 40.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 03/1800Z 13.7N 41.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 04/0600Z 14.0N 43.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 04/1800Z 14.2N 44.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 48.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 06/1800Z 15.0N 52.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 57.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
Quoting Patrap:


Due north? Maybe NNE? As the NHC forcasted.
1142. vince1
Quoting txraysfan:
Am relatively new to blog, was just wondering how many other Texans here? With your name, am figuring you are from upper texas coast?

Greetings...Dallas area but close enough to the chemical toxic soup to be paying more attention this year than any preceding year.
1143. Ryuujin
Quoting 5thgenTexan:
Another Texan here - just lurking and learning - as always! :)


Because that's how some posters here roll, bro. That's how they are.
1144. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 021814
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC THU SEP 2 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON (AL092010) 20100902 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100902 1800 100903 0600 100903 1800 100904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 39.3W 13.7N 40.2W 14.2N 41.2W 14.8N 42.8W
BAMD 13.5N 39.3W 14.0N 40.2W 14.6N 41.4W 15.2N 43.1W
BAMM 13.5N 39.3W 13.7N 40.1W 14.3N 41.3W 14.8N 42.6W
LBAR 13.5N 39.3W 13.8N 40.3W 14.6N 41.6W 15.8N 43.2W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 27KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 27KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100904 1800 100905 1800 100906 1800 100907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 44.8W 16.3N 49.6W 16.2N 55.5W 16.0N 61.0W
BAMD 15.7N 45.0W 15.7N 49.6W 14.8N 55.3W 14.1N 60.7W
BAMM 15.3N 44.3W 15.5N 48.2W 15.1N 52.9W 15.4N 57.6W
LBAR 17.1N 45.2W 19.6N 50.0W 20.9N 54.9W 21.0N 59.3W
SHIP 41KTS 59KTS 72KTS 86KTS
DSHP 41KTS 59KTS 72KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 39.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 38.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 36.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Did anyone see that?
Quoting Tazmanian:
RIP

000
WTNT44 KNHC 022033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DROPSONDES FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS
OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING ONLY IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER.

THE REMNANT LOW IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS PREDICT SOME BUILDING OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
INDICATES A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.5N 39.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 40.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 03/1800Z 13.7N 41.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 04/0600Z 14.0N 43.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 04/1800Z 14.2N 44.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 48.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 06/1800Z 15.0N 52.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 57.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


Wow. That was unexpected.
1147. P451
Quoting fllamorgan:
Supposed to fly out of NY at 6:35pm tomorrow to go to Europe. Anyone know if the airport is going to be shut down?


It is unlikely the area airports will experience conditions to force closing. Delays, yes, closings, no, cancellations, unlikely.

Kennedy and LGA may experience some winds around 40mph and some rain at most I would think.
1148. IKE
Quoting BobinTampa:


looks due west to me.


LOL!
Quoting katty5:
well you are about to see gaston rise from the ashes and become a really potent hurricane who the caribbean will have to deal with..this time they wont escape..dont make fun of gaston he will come back and bite you in the azz


Poof. No facts in evidence.
Quoting Tazmanian:
RIP

000
WTNT44 KNHC 022033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DROPSONDES FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS
OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING ONLY IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER.

THE REMNANT LOW IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS PREDICT SOME BUILDING OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
INDICATES A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.5N 39.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 40.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 03/1800Z 13.7N 41.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 04/0600Z 14.0N 43.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 04/1800Z 14.2N 44.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 05/1800Z 14.5N 48.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 06/1800Z 15.0N 52.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 57.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
wow wasnt expecting that but still need to watch this as it could redevelop.
Quoting fllamorgan:
Supposed to fly out of NY at 6:35pm tomorrow to go to Europe. Anyone know if the airport is going to be shut down?


Not to sound like Captain Ron, but "Nobody knows boss!" Hurricane Dolly was bearing down on Harlingen Texas and I had planned to fly out the day after she was supposed to be there. It was less than 8 hours before Dolly actually came ashore that Delta finally admitted it was going to cancel my flight and gave me another ticket out. Later that day, when I got to the airport, a long line of people were trying to get on that flight out.

Call them in the morning. The probably won't know anything, but you have to keep after them. Some of them are snotty too, just call back till you find a nice one.
Quoting IKE:
Look...he's now back east of 75W!


+3
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD
. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
Storm,

when you get a chance, can you please answer my question? Post number 1053. thanks
1155. Levi32
You know things are bad for a hurricane when the convection in the spiral bands looks better than the core. I honestly still think this could potentially be a Cat 2 when it passes Cape Hatteras if no reorganization occurs. Dry air does wonders.

1156. xcool
Gaston rip rip
Quoting texascoastres:
There are quite a few on here from Tx. All along the coast, and surround. A lot from Greater Houston area as well


I'm from Texas, not there now, but that's where my hat is. (Tomball area)
Quoting KanKunKid:


Starting "landfall".

No I am not Ron White, I'm sober. He stole that from me. He may not know it, but he did.


Landfall in Canada?
1159. IKE
Quoting KoritheMan:


Wow. That was unexpected.


We are gathered here today to honor a tropical storm that lived a fast life....was given much hope by the faithful WU bloggers.

May he RIP.
1160. angiest
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
wow wasnt expecting that but still need to watch this as it could redevelop.


Wonder how he will show up in the TWO.
I have a complete library of the Hurricane Earl videos I took posted
online now @

Video Library

These were all shot here in St. Maarten.

Cheers.
What?

No FujiWobble predictions today?



BTW - Cantore says he's about to get cut off from civilization LOL
Quoting IKE:


LOL!


Gas Passer is still moving left.......
1165. IKE
Quoting pilotguy1:


Poof. No facts in evidence.


He also said Earl was GOM bound.....

n
o
t...................................
Quoting IKE:


We are gathered here today to honor a tropical storm that lived a fast life....was given much hope by the faithful WU bloggers.

May he RIP.


lol

I was one of those bloggers. :P

But I don't mind being wrong.
1167. xcool
Gaston big RIP
Quoting IKE:


We are gathered here today to honor a tropical storm that lived a fast life....was given much hope by the faithful WU bloggers.

May he RIP.
theres still a chance that it could come back but you are right for now.
1169. pottery
Quoting barbados246:
You to Pottery and nice meeting you

You too.
I was at Lodge. So I know B'Dos well.
Need to visit soon again.

Looks like Gaston is not feeling well today.
But I would not write him off, just yet.
1170. nw5b
Quoting texascoastres:
There are quite a few on here from Tx. All along the coast, and surround. A lot from Greater Houston area as well


Central Texas for me...near Austin.

Close enough to the coast that I need to pay attention to GOM storms and far enough north to be on the Southern end of Tornado Alley in the Springtime.
Quoting IKE:


He also said Earl was GOM bound.....

n
o
t...................................

LOL.
Quoting pilotguy1:


Don't make me poof you for making useless posts with no meaning.


Most here would probably consider yours and his to be on par in that regard.
1173. IKE
...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWARD...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS ALREADY APPROACHING THE OUTER BANKS...
5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 32.5N 75.2W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: N at 18 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb


Winds down 10 more mph.
Gaston is remnant low and done with. The wave off the coast of Africa is going to be the only area to watch and it could die as well with Gaston. As quickly as the tropics get fired up it starts going the other direction.
1175. Patrap
Earl up 20 mbs in 12 hours..Now a Cat 2.

Great news
Quoting txraysfan:
Am relatively new to blog, was just wondering how many other Texans here? With your name, am figuring you are from upper texas coast?


I'm on the upper Texas coast.
1178. ROBTX09
pat 115 mph is still low cat3
1179. IKE
Chad Myers...on CNN....stating recon now showing an east of north track with Earl.
Quoting NEwxguy:


Their just trolls


Sad to think of them being regulars too...it will be hard for emergency officials in the OBX to get a good response to another warning and Evac if the only word to the people stranded in traffic jams is "no problems back here on the OBX..Earl passed us by..."

To everyone here be responisble. One tree falling on a car or house can kill...one mobile home/trailer tumbling in TS winds can destroy more than I wish to see on my street. The situation is serious enough...breath the sigh of relief when it does pass...not before. And DON'T feed the trolls!
1182. ROBTX09
robert didnt u read his discussion he may not be rip for long
1183. SLU
If this continues for much longer, it could go down into the record books as one of the most severe Cape Verde hurricane outbreaks since the satellite era commenced.

1184. kwgirl
Quoting KanKunKid:


It means less commercials more often and the same clips over and over and on scene observations only "Mr Obvious" would love:

Weather desk: Is it getting windy there Jim?
Jim: (Holding his hat and his goggles) Yes, it getting windy it's a hurricane.
Weather desk: What else can our listeners expect?
Jim: Well it's going to get windier and more rain will come.
Weather desk: Blah blah blah blah.....

**click**

That is all I can take.
Yeah and when it is a non-event they make it seem like one. Our Mayor caught a camera crew shaking a street sign to make it appear it was windy. Can't stand them!!
1185. angiest
Quoting ROBTX09:
robert didnt u read his discussion he may not be rip for long


What colour will he get on the TWO?
Looks we are in watch and wait mode again.
Quoting katty5:
how do you pick up oz i want to see this great hurricane


7674u.com
1189. IKE
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947
MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
A COLDER OCEAN. AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL
HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE
CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 32.5N 75.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 72.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 41.7N 69.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting pottery:

You too.
I was at Lodge. So I know B'Dos well.
Need to visit soon again.

Looks like Gaston is not feeling well today.
But I would not write him off, just yet.
I haven't written him off as yet either
1191. Legion
Quoting katty5:
is oz broadcasting i cant get him...antone know if hes on the air..


I think he shut down for a while, may be having some technical difficulties.

Link
1192. ROBTX09
yellow for now but when it starts moving it will come back per models
1193. pottery
Quoting SLU:
If this continues for much longer, it could go down into the record books as one of the most severe Cape Verde hurricane outbreaks since the satellite era commenced.


Good point, SLU.
More to come too....
There now is actually a better chance of Gaston getting into the Caribbean
Quoting IKE:
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947
MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
A COLDER OCEAN. AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL
HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE
CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 32.5N 75.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 72.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 41.7N 69.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

This is great news keep on weakening earl.
Have a great evening everyone and stay safe i'm out of this place heading for home
hello Hope all is prepared for earl and may all of u in his path be safe I have a question on Gaston with his weakening does anyone think this wil restregthen and be a problem for the southeast us coast or no?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
3:00 AM JST September 3 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea South Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 21.0N 134.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 16 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 23.7N 129.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
07L/MH/E/C3
MARK
32.32N/74.89W
nearing coast
From the OBX blog:

EOC Update - 4pm
They are not going to make a decision to close the Bridges to allow traffic back on the banks until they see what they are dealing with. That will be after 3am in the morning at the earliest. They are pretty certain that access to Hatteras Island will be delayed tomorrow for sure, but more will be know after the morning meeting. Exiting traffic is lite to almost zero right now. There are a few folks stopping in to check out now and they are reporting almost no traffic, people always seem to leave too early IMHO.

On a funny note, my son works at Sound Feet Shoes in NH and he sold Al Roaker a pair of sandals today.
Quoting KoritheMan:
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD
. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.


Gaston is behaving like the 92L system that led to 93L and eventually Alex forming in the Caribbean. That system was never classified as a TD but could very well have been one in the Central Atlantic. A remnant low for Gaston means that it could end up farther south and still develop into a full-fleged hurricane.

Atlantic satellite imagery from 12z June 14 - 12z June 16, 2010:



The previous models had trouble distinguishing Gaston from the ICTZ. The NHC had been predicting a possible hurricane by day 5 almost consistently, and this could very easily occur should Gaston's remnants regenerate.
METEO FRANCE
==============

Low 999 ex Danielle 53N 21W, moving northwest slowly filling.
Shallow low expected 1004 west FARADAY by 04/00UTC.

ITCZ from 10N14W TO 9N20W 13N34W.
Quoting IKE:


We are gathered here today to honor a tropical storm that lived a fast life....was given much hope by the faithful WU bloggers.

May he RIP.


I have mixed emotions. I have never run from a hurricane and during each one (except Georges, hey I was living in a sailboat, I'm a thrill seeker not a death wisher) I was a giddy as a school girl, running around to each window and poking my head out the downstream windows and watching shhtuff fly by. But, if Gaston had held out and made it though the Caribbean to the shores of the "Mayan Riviera", even though I am in a huge, 3 story concrete structure on the beach, I may have had to bail. I am not afraid of hurricanes, but they can really whip large bodies of water into something of a monster that I AM afraid of. So, yeah, I hope he stays dead, no way to double tap though, so I'm not turning my back on tricky Gaston until he is a cirrus cloud over the Pacific.
Fascinating to watch the tone of comments change in 2 or 3 hours based on a couple of wobbles in the track. 2 hours ago, Earl went a little west of north and the Outer Banks were going to be toast. Now, a couple wobbles east of north, and the Outer Banks have officially been spared.

Just as slight deviations to the left of the track are only data points, slight deviations to the right of the forecast track are only data points as well. It is the trend over several hours that will start to give a clearer picture of what is actually happening.

Bottom line, don't follow the analysis of the non-experts who read wobbles like they are tea leaves. Listen to the qualified experts who do the forecasting for a living.
Quoting coffeecrusader:
There now is actually a better chance of Gaston getting into the Caribbean


Exactly. An event like this seems good on a superficial level, but that's not necessarily the case.
Is it too early to be putting Earl to bed and that the storm is just going to weaken from now on and mostly be a fish storm?
no more Tropical Depression Gaston
You can plainly see a NNE track now...The system will likely miss Hatteras and the rest of the coast and out to sea.




Quoting IKE:
Chad Myers...on CNN....stating recon now showing an east of north track with Earl.
1212. SeALWx
Quoting KoritheMan:
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD
. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.


This warning is included due to the fact that weaker systems tend to stay further south; being steered by the lower level trade winds, predominately.

The trend we are seeing this year is for impressive waves off Africa to dry up in the East/Central Atlantic, maintaining pulsing convection(generally on the diurnal cycle) just enough to keep some weak vorticity going, only to build into true tropical cyclones further west.

I'm gonna say this isn't a death rattle from Gaston. This weakening will allow him to move mostly west. Not a good thing for the Caribbean or the Gulf.

{PS-I know you understand this KM. I was just expounding on the topic of your post for the newer readers of the blog. I know big storms bring lots of less weather-wise company to our lil blog}
Hey, that was me talking to Dr. Masters.... I am not worthy... but I'm off to the store to get some more supplies if any are left in case the power goes out.

As long as I have power I will continue to update you on our conditions. We do have a windy day today. Waves from Danielle have finally abated, now we wait for Earl.
1214. angiest
This one died for awhile and existed as an open wave for a time before regenerating into a powerful cat 4.

another OBX blog comment:

Frisco Pier
Well, I took 3 short video clips a little while ago of the Frisco Pier falling in the water board by board, but I can't load any of them on here.

Just close your eyes and imagine all the huge timbers and planks on the beach washing up on the base of the dune and into the Frisco Pier Parking Lot.

I think that big chunk on the end of the Pier will be gone at high tide during the night around 3am. And no one will see it happen.

Hang-On!
1216. Bayside
TWC said he's making the turn... didn't call it a wobble, seems pretty committed to me, for a forecaster...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Exactly. An event like this seems good on a superficial level, but that's not necessarily the case.


Katrina formed out of the partial remnants of TD 12 in 2005
1218. angiest
Quoting scaldisnoel:
Fascinating to watch the tone of comments change in 2 or 3 hours based on a couple of wobbles in the track. 2 hours ago, Earl went a little west of north and the Outer Banks were going to be toast. Now, a couple wobbles east of north, and the Outer Banks have officially been spared.

Just as slight deviations to the left of the track are only data points, slight deviations to the right of the forecast track are only data points as well. It is the trend over several hours that will start to give a clearer picture of what is actually happening.

Bottom line, don't follow the analysis of the non-experts who read wobbles like they are tea leaves. Listen to the qualified experts who do the forecasting for a living.


Not everyone here has sounded the all-clear.
Folks even though its a remnant low dont take your eyes off it.
1220. Bayside
Quoting Bayside:
TWC said he's making the turn... didn't call it a wobble, seems pretty committed to me, for a forecaster...

Oh now he backpeddled and said it could be a wobble... lol
Just remember a hurricane is not a point on a map.
Earl will be a fish storm now..Once that east component started it so long,bon voyage...the hype is over for now
1223. ROBTX09
mark my words he will return in the carribean and in a big way
1210. jason2010xxxx 8:50 PM GMT on September 02, 2010

---
for now..
1225. Ryuujin
certainly is a strong wobble to the east on sat.
Quoting angiest:
This one died for awhile and existed as an open wave for a time before regenerating into a powerful cat 4.



This one did too, within the same year:

1228. Legion
Quoting katty5:
is oz broadcasting i cant get him...antone know if hes on the air..


He just came back on the air

Link
Quoting angiest:


Not everyone here has sounded the all-clear.


No, they certainly haven't, but the "wobble readers" need to stop hyping and downplaying the storm based on 2 or three frames worth of satellite images.
1230. IKE
Moving further north and east on the latest floater loop of Earl?......

Link
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Katrina formed out of the partial remnants of TD 12 in 2005


Yup. Aside from the dry environment, there is no obvious reason why Gaston shouldn't ultimately regenerate.
Quoting scaldisnoel:
Fascinating to watch the tone of comments change in 2 or 3 hours based on a couple of wobbles in the track. 2 hours ago, Earl went a little west of north and the Outer Banks were going to be toast. Now, a couple wobbles east of north, and the Outer Banks have officially been spared.

Just as slight deviations to the left of the track are only data points, slight deviations to the right of the forecast track are only data points as well. It is the trend over several hours that will start to give a clearer picture of what is actually happening.

Bottom line, don't follow the analysis of the non-experts who read wobbles like they are tea leaves. Listen to the qualified experts who do the forecasting for a living.


Indeed...it is best to treat these matters with a bit more respect than some here. Trolls come in all colors and all opinions.
1233. Keys99
Quoting IKE:


We are gathered here today to honor a tropical storm that lived a fast life....was given much hope by the faithful WU bloggers.

May he RIP.


Hear Hear
1234. angiest
Quoting KoritheMan:


This one did too, within the same year:



And is a classic blown forecast. The loop over the Yucatan (coming in from the BOC!) was not forecast and was almost certainly outside the cone.
1235. SLU
Quoting pottery:

Good point, SLU.
More to come too....


Brings back memories of 1995 and 1996. Looks like it could going be a September to remember ...
Wow, the NHC goes from predicting a 100 mph hurricane from Gaston in 5 days from the 11 am advisory, now they say it's an extra tropical TD and will stay so for the next 5 days?
jajaja

Did they mess up? Or what happened?

LINK
Quoting Legion:


I think he shut down for a while, may be having some technical difficulties.

Link
Ya, the nut that holds the stearing wheel on his rental car is loose.
1238. katty5
i clicked the site still no oz...maybe he was blown away..
1239. ROBTX09
he died cause dry air if that wasnt there different story besides he will be moving into a better enivornment as it starts moving quicker to the west
Remember Katrina was a weak low that travel across the whole Atlantic basin then blew up near the Bahamas. Expect Gaston to fire up over the next 1 to 2 days and stay more south basically eliminating the chance of a fish system.
1241. katty5
that sounds a lot of the way katrina did stayed a closed low for a few days before she went wild..watch out for gaston..he will be a player..
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Folks even though its a remnant low dont take your eyes off it.


That is appreciated here...and Pcoladan's blog posting on the pier breaking up is a reminder for some as well.
1243. ROBTX09
weathergeek did u read this part
000
WTNT44 KNHC 022033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DROPSONDES FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS
OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING ONLY IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER.

THE REMNANT LOW IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS PREDICT SOME BUILDING OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
INDICATES A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
GASTON to a remnant low.

That was unexpected. Well if it regenerates, it will get the name Gaston back, right?
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Katrina formed out of the partial remnants of TD 12 in 2005


They also declared Andrew basically dead about 3 days before it hit South florida.
Quoting scaldisnoel:
Fascinating to watch the tone of comments change in 2 or 3 hours based on a couple of wobbles in the track. 2 hours ago, Earl went a little west of north and the Outer Banks were going to be toast. Now, a couple wobbles east of north, and the Outer Banks have officially been spared.

Just as slight deviations to the left of the track are only data points, slight deviations to the right of the forecast track are only data points as well. It is the trend over several hours that will start to give a clearer picture of what is actually happening.

Bottom line, don't follow the analysis of the non-experts who read wobbles like they are tea leaves. Listen to the qualified experts who do the forecasting for a living.
You couldn't of explained this better!

Well said scaldisnoel
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Katrina formed out of the partial remnants of TD 12 in 2005


You beat me to it.
Quoting IKE:
Moving further north and east on the latest floater loop of Earl?......

Link
on the turning away
Earl reminding me of Blanche 1975.

Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Wow, the NHC goes from predicting a 100 mph hurricane from Gaston in 5 days from the 11 am advisory, now they say it's an extra tropical TD and will stay so for the next 5 days?
jajaja

Did they mess up? Or what happened?

LINK


Dry air happened.
GASTON is DEAD!!!. Looks like season is slowing down again. Still only to the G storm about average
1252. soloco
Quoting angiest:


Yo!



Yo!
1236:

I think they jumped the gun this time.


"It's a cloud! Name it!"
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Ya, the nut that holds the stearing wheel on his rental car is loose.

O...M...G...

Wait...wait...let me catch my breath!

MUAHAHAHAHA
Quoting zoomiami:


They also declared Andrew basically dead about 3 days before it hit South florida.


I think it was 4-5 days, but yes

Andrew had a pressure of 1015mbs and was barely holding on, then his MLC worked down to the surface and the rest is history

Amazing how close Andrew was to dying off and being nothing more than another weak storm that impacted no one.
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
GASTON to a remnant low.

That was unexpected. Well if it regenerates, it will get the name Gaston back, right?


YES!
1257. P451
Earl...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 32.5N 75.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 72.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 41.7N 69.0W 75 KT


..on circlemapper + the rainbow superimposed along his supposed track:



question.

is it that the hurricane is changing structure as it weakens? is the "old" eye/coc making that wobble within the now larger, reforming eye/coc?

and if so... lol... the overall motion would seem to still be nearly due north...
Radar and Satellite confirm the NNE movement....which is great news..just in time to avoid the coast. The eye is filling and the convection is weakening on the left side. You can see how the storm configuration is changing and leaning more eastward...
I think Oz wasted a ton of money for nothing. LOL
Quoting IKE:
Moving further north and east on the latest floater loop of Earl?......

Link


Looks like a solid 360 North, hope it can turn even more soon.
The low that came of Africa is bigger than Earl!
Quoting thewindman:
GASTON is DEAD!!!. Looks like season is slowing down again. Still only to the G storm about average


Every time you post, it's only to say something ignorant.

Note: if you want to be an effective troll, you need to make it less obvious.
There was a hurricane in 1532 that followed Earl's exact tract. Took out a bunch of teepees along the outerbanks.
1265. ROBTX09
windman ur wrong we are above average ouch sry also read 1243 or leave u troll
im adding you to my iggy list RecordSeason.


all you od is talk about fish storms and how earl is 'done' when theres still quite a few places that will feel impact. your posts bog down the blog and offer NOTHING intelligent.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
on the turning away


...from the pale and downtrodden...
Quoting OBXNCWEATHER:
question.

is it that the hurricane is changing structure as it weakens? is the "old" eye/coc making that wobble within the now larger, reforming eye/coc?

and if so... lol... the overall motion would seem to still be nearly due north...


The average motion does seem to be due N, by my assessment.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Dry air happened.


I'm just surprised at what a drastic change from one advisory to another.
1270. Michfan
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Wow, the NHC goes from predicting a 100 mph hurricane from Gaston in 5 days from the 11 am advisory, now they say it's an extra tropical TD and will stay so for the next 5 days?
jajaja

Did they mess up? Or what happened?

LINK


POST Tropical not extra tropical. Big difference there.
IKE if you think Gaston is done then you got another thing coming. Gaston will come back as there is a very evident circulation with Gaston and it won't take much to fire him back up.
I think this is just a hiccup for ex gaston i think he will regenerate into a tropical cyclone again.
1273. FLdewey
Quoting CaneWarning:
I think Oz wasted a ton of money for nothing. LOL

I wouldn't say that. Most of his equipment is from local kids sports clubs. I guess however much a pack of smokes is x100 is the biggest cost.
Earl is not being affected by the trough, but rather is being shoved by pressure from the south.

It's amazing to see that the current which shoves the Cape Verde hurricanes across the Atlantic is the same one which piles up against the southern end of the trough, which sets up a UUL over the Gulf, and results in an increase of pressure which has to go somewhere. That somewhere is directly to the northeast, over FL, and directly into the weakness caused by Earl. You can clearly see how this pressure from the southeast has deformed Earl today in the link below. Look at the very bottom of the screen in the Gulf and watch how it gives Earl a shove to the Northeast. That's a saving grace for the NC residents!
Link
Quoting floridafisherman:
im adding you to my iggy list RecordSeason.


all you od is talk about fish storms and how earl is 'done' when theres still quite a few places that will feel impact. your posts bog down the blog and offer NOTHING intelligent.


he's on everyones list already
1276. ROBTX09
1266. floridafisherman 9:03 PM GMT on September 02, 2010
im adding you to my iggy list RecordSeason.


all you od is talk about fish storms and how earl is 'done' when theres still quite a few places that will feel impact. your posts bog down the blog and offer NOTHING intelligent.

ur messing the point he isnt like that read his post correctly
Quoting frecklespugsley:
There was a hurricane in 1532 that followed Earl's exact tract. Took out a bunch of teepees along the outerbanks.


It was the village Shaman that predicted it !

I am watching OZ right now.
Calm conditions. His web cam is coming thru fine from this site:

http://thextremeweather.com/xtreme-weather-cam.html
Quoting FLdewey:

I wouldn't say that. Most of his equipment is from local kids sports clubs. I guess however much a pack of smokes is x100 is the biggest cost.


Maybe so. I was going to stay up tonight and watch the Earl coverage, but I think that would be a waste of my time at this point.
1280. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:
I think Oz wasted a ton of money for nothing. LOL


If I was going to cover a hurricane somewhere...it would be in the GOM where there was virtually no chance of the system not hitting someone.

Storms that go up the east coast may do an Earl and miss land altogether. Too big of a risk.

You can see Earl turning east of north here.
Quoting Michfan:


POST Tropical not extra tropical. Big difference there.


Ahh I see, I've never heard the term POST tropical.
But because of my latin knowledge, it's obviously after tropical jajajajaja

but what exactly does that mean?
Thanks
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


I'm just surprised at what a drastic change from one advisory to another.


Yeah, it happens. I was somewhat surprised too, as I didn't expect this initially. I was thinking this morning though that it might meet its demise.
Quoting rareaire:


he's on everyones list already


Not mine, but I like what he has to say normally. I'd say he's pretty knowledgeable.
1284. Keys99
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


I'm just surprised at what a drastic change from one advisory to another.


Lost Gaston but gained another yellow Circle
Here's why I'm fairly confident in a low impact Earl.

A jog NNE means that a much bigger reversal to NNW would have to happen for Earl to have a bigger impact...and of course that would be into a steering flow that is now indicating a slow turn to the NE.

1287. FLdewey
Quoting CaneWarning:


Maybe so. I was going to stay up tonight and watch the Earl coverage, but I think that would be a waste of my time at this point.

LOL... with or without the storm he'll probably do something exciting. I mean I've never seen a grown man get dressed in a car wash for 45 minutes before... that was enlightening.
Quoting Jeff9641:
IKE if you think Gaston is done then you got another thing coming. Gaston will come back as there is a very evident circulation with Gaston and it won't take much to fire him back up.


IKE never said Gaston was dead.
Quoting IKE:


If I was going to cover a hurricane somewhere...it would be in the GOM where there was virtually no chance of the system not hitting someone.

Storms that go up the east coast may do an Earl and miss land altogether. Too big of a risk.

You can see Earl turning east of north here.


I certainly see a nice NNE. I am much less concerned with Earl than I was a few hours ago.
Quoting IKE:


If I was going to cover a hurricane somewhere...it would be in the GOM where there was virtually no chance of the system not hitting someone.

Storms that go up the east coast may do an Earl and miss land altogether. Too big of a risk.

You can see Earl turning east of north here.
Yep great news the outer banks dodged a big bullet they will still get tropical storm force winds but it could have been a lot worse.
Quoting photomunkey:
Earl is not being affected by the trough, but rather is being shoved by pressure from the south.

It's amazing to see that the current which shoves the Cape Verde hurricanes across the Atlantic is the same one which piles up against the southern end of the trough, which sets up a UUL over the Gulf, and results in an increase of pressure which has to go somewhere. That somewhere is directly to the northeast, over FL, and directly into the weakness caused by Earl. You can clearly see how this pressure from the southeast has deformed Earl today in the link below. Look at the very bottom of the screen in the Gulf and watch how it gives Earl a shove to the Northeast. That's a saving grace for the NC residents!
Link

Nice!! Thanks so much for that page
Quoting osuwxguynew:
Here's why I'm fairly confident in a low impact Earl.

A jog NNE means that a much bigger reversal to NNW would have to happen for Earl to have a bigger impact...and of course that would be into a steering flow that is now indicating a slow turn to the NE.



A Turn now is good for the whole east coast as now only minimal affects will be felt.
1295. Michfan
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Ahh I see, I've never heard the term POST tropical.
But because of my latin knowledge, it's obviously after tropical jajajajaja

but what exactly does that mean?
Thanks


Extra tropical means it has the characteristics of both a non tropical and tropical low ie a hybrid cold core and warm core system. Post tropical is basically just an old low leftover from a previously declared system. Its degenerated from its TD status to just a surface low which can then degrade into an open tropical wave if the conditions are right.
?
Gaston dissipated?
Good Afternoon.
Quoting Michfan:


Extra tropical means it has the characteristics of both a non tropical and tropical low ie a hybrid cold core and warm core system. Post tropical is basically just an old low leftover from a previously declared system. Its degenerated from its TD status to just a surface low which can then degrade into an open tropical wave if the conditions are right.


Ok thanks!
1298. Michfan
You still need to remember that there will be some significant flooding from the storm surge alone. Winds and rain aren't everything.
Now I see why my family never evacuates from the coast.
Quoting CaneWarning:
I think Oz wasted a ton of money for nothing. LOL


Hes Cam Froze and he doesnt know how to fix it.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
?
Gaston dissipated?
Good Afternoon.
yes for now its a remnant low but could regenerate
I agree that Hurricane Earl is moving slightly East of due North now. If it continues in that direction, the Outer Banks will get the Western eye-wall of Earl.

For all who are wondering, that's still pretty bad. Ask the folks in the West end of Galveston, who 'only' got the Western eye-wall of Ike! They still had 5-6 feet of storm surge from Galveston Bay.

Hurricane Earl will be brushing the Outer Banks tonight during high tide. It's a powerful storm capable of doing a lot of damage. Please don't take the Western eye-wall lightly. It can uproot trees, cause carports and roofs to lift and cause all sorts of damage.

I hope for North Carolina's sake that Earl passes by without much damage. However, don't make the mistake of thinking that tropical storm winds 70 miles from the center are nothing to worry about. During Rita, large trees 50-60 miles West of the COC were felled.

If you are anywhere within 100-miles of the COC, make sure you stay aware of the storm's movements until it is past. They can shift track, generate tornadoes or cause serious wind & flooding damage far inland.
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Wow, the NHC goes from predicting a 100 mph hurricane from Gaston in 5 days from the 11 am advisory, now they say it's an extra tropical TD and will stay so for the next 5 days?
jajaja

Did they mess up? Or what happened?

LINK


The long range forecasts are extrapolations based on data available at the time of the model run(s). It is not to be taken as a forecast per se, but an estimation. Anything over 24 hours is academic as it is ALWAYS subject to change. The models are not yet designed to be accurate that far out, however a guidelne has to be ascertained so that forecasts can be more accurate eventually. It would be an accident if a hurricane actually followed a model run for 5 days. The interaction of complex data points which cannot be mathematically solved with an infinite amount of variables are involved. Think of the model runs over 12 hours as an experiment that needs testing out to prove whether it will work or not. No one can predict accurately 5 days out on purpose, more than once. Confidence is necessary and is a factor in data retrieval and use. Being right one time and wrong 1200 times, does not inspire confidence.
Don't worry about the long range forecasts. Learn how to read steering current maps, the known signals such as MJO, and why La Nina and other phenomenon affect the track of hurricanes. Soon, you will be understanding why it is so difficult to predict and you can ask questions that will help you to become an authority on tropical weather systems. Wouldn't that be nice?
1305. ROBTX09
1294:ahhh geezz he isnt a fish he did his thing in pr and the antelles no fish sry also its going into the candian maritimes isnt fish either ooops sry loser
bad forecast on gus. from the experts to the bloggers.
Orange circle possibilities at 8 pm?
LINK
Quoting Jeff9641:
IKE if you think Gaston is done then you got another thing coming. Gaston will come back as there is a very evident circulation with Gaston and it won't take much to fire him back up.
just wait till that circulation reaches the very warm carribean waters
The question may be, why NHC upgraded in the first place to TD/TS while there was dry air in the Atlantic.
1278. RadarRich 9:06 PM GMT on September 02, 2010
I am watching OZ right now.
Calm conditions. His web cam is coming thru fine from this site:

http://thextremeweather.com/xtreme-weather-cam.html


And then, right after I posted this.....
his video camera has frozen up, but he can still talk to everyone. He is working on the computer video broadcast by sending one of his buddies to fix the glitch from his home computer, etc.. too funny, technical difficulties on the outer banks per CycloneOz's high tech setup. At least he's trying...
Quoting KoritheMan:


IKE never said Gaston was dead.


Quoting IKE:


We are gathered here today to honor a tropical storm that lived a fast life....was given much hope by the faithful WU bloggers.

May he RIP.
Quoting osuwxguynew:
Here's why I'm fairly confident in a low impact Earl.

A jog NNE means that a much bigger reversal to NNW would have to happen for Earl to have a bigger impact...and of course that would be into a steering flow that is now indicating a slow turn to the NE.



To a point you are correct, but do remember that the cone is an "S" cone and any change back to the west of current has a huge impact on areas to the North. Comforting to those areas is the lack of reorganization...so far...
1314. Michfan
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The question may be, why NHC upgraded in the first place to TD/TS while there was dry air in the Atlantic.


Because it met the proper criteria.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The question may be, why NHC upgraded in the first place to TD/TS while there was dry air in the Atlantic.
Because it had the convection and the organization to be considered as such
IMO, Orange at 8PM:





This is exactly what Gaston looked like as 97L...Went from Yellow to Orange to Red in like one day, I believe. This should be red tomorrow.
I cant see how Cape Cod, Martha's and Nantucket WONT sustain HEAVY damage from Earl.
1318. Melagoo
Earl looks awful ... the east coast can breath easier now ... Nova Scotia shouldn't be to worried if Earl is weakening this quickly
1319. ROBTX09
too disorganized for a organge circle most of the convection is in the itcz
I think it's possible for the remnants of Gaston to be absorbed by the large tropical wave just off the coast of Africa. With Gaston's remnants stalling, the wave off of Africa could catch up and the two could then combine to form another cyclone. Just thinking out loud.
Quoting thewindman:


The East Coast almost NEVER gets a direct hit. The upper Level Winds are West to East north of 30 latitude. Why worry


You Mean the Upper East Coast?

Florida is the Hurricane Capital of the Atlantic.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Quoting IKE:


We are gathered here today to honor a tropical storm that lived a fast life....was given much hope by the faithful WU bloggers.

May he RIP.


He was probably only talking about now. IKE's knowledgeable enough to understand it could regenerate.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The question may be, why NHC upgraded in the first place to TD/TS while there was dry air in the Atlantic.


Because it met the requirements to be a TD and briefly a TS.
I don't want to say they "messed up" the forecast per se, but from predicting a 100 mph hurricane to a Post Tropical Depression in 6 hours is a huge difference.
I wonder what happened. Did the environment change really really quickly?
Quoting Melagoo:
Earl looks awful ... the east coast can breath easier now ... Nova Scotia shouldn't be to worried if Earl is weakening this quickly



Agree....Lets head to the Beach
Quoting lickitysplit:
I cant see how Cape Cod, Martha's and Nantucket WONT sustain HEAVY damage from Earl.


Because the worst of the storm will be over water and not make landfall.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Every time you post, it's only to say something ignorant.

Note: if you want to be an effective troll, you need to make it less obvious.


LOL We're schoolin' 'em now, are we?
1328. snotly
Quoting photomunkey:
Earl is not being affected by the trough, but rather is being shoved by pressure from the south.

It's amazing to see that the current which shoves the Cape Verde hurricanes across the Atlantic is the same one which piles up against the southern end of the trough, which sets up a UUL over the Gulf, and results in an increase of pressure which has to go somewhere. That somewhere is directly to the northeast, over FL, and directly into the weakness caused by Earl. You can clearly see how this pressure from the southeast has deformed Earl today in the link below. Look at the very bottom of the screen in the Gulf and watch how it gives Earl a shove to the Northeast. That's a saving grace for the NC residents!
Link


Check out the aircraft condensation trails over Idaho in that WV look. Cool.
Quoting KoritheMan:


He was probably only talking about now. IKE's knowledgeable enough to understand it could regenerate.


RIP means DEAD!
Quoting StormW:


Really?



Thanks for the graphic...many miles yet to log for this storm. Hopefully less threatening.
That is why I said NORTH of 30 Latitude. Means around NC and especially VA, MD, RI, NY
Quoting ROBTX09:
too disorganized for a organge circle most of the convection is in the itcz


It doesn't matter
Quoting angiest:
This one died for awhile and existed as an open wave for a time before regenerating into a powerful cat 4.


Don't remind me.....lost power for a week and this town was a mess! I don't like these! And I believe Katrina had the same type of development
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Because it met the requirements to be a TD and briefly a TS.
I don't want to say they "messed up" the forecast per se, but from predicting a 100 mph hurricane to a Post Tropical Depression in 6 hours is a huge difference.
I wonder what happened. Did the environment change really really quickly?


Nothing changed in the surrounding environment. They merely expected him to be able to fend off the dry air, as did I.
1335. jscs
This is probably the second or third time this year the models, the NHC, and Dr absolutely called this. Weakening storm and skirting the coast with no landfall until New England.

Kudos!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Orange at 8PM:



IMO...This is exactly what Gaston looked like as 97L...Went from Yellow to Orange to Red in like one day, I believe. This should be red tomorrow.
That's massive. :O

Pre-Hermine?

Is the SAL unusually strong at the moment?
Wind Fields for Earl — Last Updated On 9/2/2010 4:59:12 PM
07L/H/E/C2
1339. ROBTX09
sorry cody still disorganized and some conv waned 20% at best
Gaston was exploding this time yesterday. But he must of gotten a little to close to the fireworks. Looking like a Ghost. Even ITCZ stealing the little moisture available to him.
Quoting StormW:


From bad data.


GIGO right Chief
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Yep great news the outer banks dodged a big bullet they will still get tropical storm force winds but it could have been a lot worse.


I wouldn't characterize the situation as the Outer Banks DODGED a bullet, oh no. They will get hit. Let's just say they will get "winged" or a "flesh wound". Not fatal, but not dodged. No sir, not by a long shot.
1343. Ryuujin
Aaand Earl wobbles back to the north again. Good grief man! Make up your mind!
Quoting katadman:


LOL We're schoolin' 'em now, are we?


You know it. ;)

Ignorance is a blight among humanity that should be utterly eradicated, because it spreads misinformation.
1345. Melagoo
One thing Earl will do for sure is re-landscape the entire coast ... He is falling appear fast and entering the cooler waters ... still a tropical storm probably but not hurricane strength when the maritimes get hit
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nothing changed in the surrounding environment. They merely expected him to be able to fend off the dry air, as did I.



Pues that just shows us that there is a lot to learn.
1347. P451
SouthEast Massachusetts forecast. I think they may disagree with those rip'ing Earl already and sending him harmlessly out to sea. In fact I'm pretty sure Eastern NC is about to start disagreeing with some of you folks.

---

FRIDAY
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO
SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN
THE EVENING. HUMID. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 70S.
EAST WINDS 50 TO 60 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND...INCREASING TO
60 TO 70 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT.
1348. breald
Quoting thewindman:


The East Coast almost NEVER gets a direct hit. The upper Level Winds are West to East north of 30 latitude. Why worry


1991 was the last direct hit. Prior to that it was 1985.
Quoting StormW:


???



You know, Storm. "If you can't dazzle 'em with your brilliance .....". lol
1350. ROBTX09
guys please (-) and (!) thewindman a complete fool and troll thanks and move on
1351. Michfan
The eye is still undergoing an EWRC as the larger outer eye takes over. The wind field should expand a bit as this happens. Its why it hasn't been able to take advantage of the Gulf Stream just yet.
Quoting ROBTX09:
sorry cody still disorganized and some conv waned 20% at best


What the heck are you talking about? Look at the visible loop.

The convection has clearly increased!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The question may be, why NHC upgraded in the first place to TD/TS while there was dry air in the Atlantic.


Because it was a tropical cyclone and was needed to be named.
Quoting HurricaneGeek:



Pues that just shows us that there is a lot to learn.


That it does. That's why I love this field.
Yes the doctor did take some flax for using the term brush by N. Carolina affecting the outer banks the most. Jolly good show Doc.
1358. jscs
Quoting oracle28:


Because the worst of the storm will be over water and not make landfall.


Frankly, if the winds die down to 90 to 80, those islands have lived through those winds through winter storms.
Quoting StormW:
Just got a phone call from Barometer Bobs wife...Bob came down with severe migraine at work, and is is the hospital right now getting checked out.


He didnt look well yesterday, I must say.
1360. breald
Quoting Michfan:
The eye is still undergoing an EWRC as the larger outer eye takes over. The wind field should expand a bit as this happens. Its why it hasn't been able to take advantage of the Gulf Stream just yet.


So are you saying Earl can get stronger before it starts to weaken?

Also, at the 5p update it still had him at 75.2 west. I thought he had already started to turn east?
Quoting Melagoo:
Earl looks awful ... the east coast can breath easier now ... Nova Scotia shouldn't be to worried if Earl is weakening this quickly


It will take a while to wind down.
If the models take it to where they say its going... its into COOL waters and Extratropical transition where its rain core gets ripped and separates from its LLC.
Well that's very sad news Storms. Let's all hope and pray for the best.
Gaston's gaspin', ain't he? Over his short life, Gaston's A.C.E. equaled that of July's Bonnie: a paltry 0.3675. (Compare that to Earl, which has 4.0025 today alone...and that's without, of course, the 2300 TWO).

Of course, Gaston could pull a Lazarus and come back...which is something I doubt Bonnie can pull off. However, since they likely won't be retiring her name this year, she'll definitely be back...in 2016. :-)
1365. jscs
Quoting gordydunnot:
Yes the doctor did take some flax for using the term brush by N. Carolina affecting the outer banks the most. Jolly good show Doc.


I was impressed with all the forecasts. Weakening storm, brushing the coast. Best case scenario is it weakens to a Cat 1 by New England, and while not a fun weekend, it's not something unusual for areas used to Noreasters.
Dont get to excited, High threat for Winds from Hurricane Earl:

1367. breald
Quoting StormW:
Just got a phone call from Barometer Bobs wife...Bob came down with severe migraine at work, and is is the hospital right now getting checked out.


oh no. I hope he is ok. You don't want to mess with sever headaches in case there is something else going on. Poor guy.
1368. breald
..
Quoting snotly:


Check out the aircraft condensation trails over Idaho in that WV look. Cool.


Wow! an Idaho reference..how exciting. Yeah it is a calm beautiful day here in the upper 60's.
1370. ROBTX09
still disorganized convection 20 or 30%
@StormPro:
I've been watching that page for two days now, waiting to see what would happen. Someone else posted it to the blog originally so I can't take credit for it.

I'm just wondering if the models saw the "hammer and anvil" effect forming to the southwest of Earl, forcing him to the east before the trough arrives on Friday to tear him apart? That would be awesome modeling if it can actually resolve and predict the formation of pressure points like that which are the results of other massive-scale atmospheric forces working against each other.
Quoting StormW:


You betcha!

How are you holding up?


Hanging in there..... Thanks for asking
Quoting jscs:


I was impressed with all the forecasts. Weakening storm, brushing the coast. Best case scenario is it weakens to a Cat 1 by New England, and while not a fun weekend, it's not something unusual for areas used to Noreasters.
Sounds about right
1374. bwt1982
Looks like the Outer Banks are going to dodge a bullet! And as expected Gatson went poof!!! No longer a worry!
SE Mass, folks are taking Earl necessary, because Earl is a threatening hurricane. Expected to be less than 30 miles to the south of Nantucket, MA is a very close hit regardless of landfall. He is trying to get a big eye appearance, but it appears to be too late now. overall motion of the large eye is northward, with the smaller eye trapped inside wobbling around. He needs to get rid of that eye if he wants to remain a category three hurricane. Fiona is hanging on tough this afternoon. If Earl was not there maybe Fiona would have become a huge hurricane as well. Gaston will refire once he gets more moisture and the wave just emerged off of Africa last night is slowly becoming more organized.
Quoting bwt1982:
Looks like the Outer Banks are going to dodge a bullet! And as expected Gatson went poof!!! No longer a worry!


Who are you?
What do you guys think?

Yellow? Orange? Red?

Like the man at the NHC said not necessarily good news a weakening in wind speed around the eye. All the energy that was heading there how spreads out a little more.
Quoting StormW:
Gaston...playing possum

LINK


That is what I was thinking
1381. Gearsts
Quoting Keys99:


Lost Gaston but gained another yellow Circle
why lost?
The weaker whats left of Gaston stays, the higher the threat for a Gulf sotrm. Ugh. And the train is chugging along across Africa!
Quoting StormW:
Gaston...playing possum

LINK


Gosh, it disturbs me to see you, Gaston, looking so down in the dumps...
The weaker whats left of Gaston stays, the higher the threat for a Gulf storm. Ugh. And the train is chugging along across Africa!
Quoting StormW:
Gaston...playing possum

LINK


Gaston needs to stop plyaing dead!
Earl will never be a fish storm now because its hit and before.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What do you guys think?

Yellow? Orange? Red?

Ill go with 20%
This has to be the highest the TCHP has ever been, not even 2005 was higher...

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL


What's so funny?
Quoting StormW:
Gaston...playing possum

LINK


Very good spin StormW and he will be back shortly.
Quoting StormW:
Gaston...playing possum

LINK


Very good spin StormW and he will be back shortly.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What do you guys think?

Yellow? Orange? Red?



Yellow. 20%.
Quoting Floodman:


...from the pale and downtrodden...
By the way, which one is Pink?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This has to be the highest the TCHP has ever been, not even 2005 was higher...

Thats disturbing
From hero to zero:

Looks like I hit it right on the head again.I said it was possible that Gaston could turn back into a remnant low,but regenerate again.Also I pointed out that the wave that did become Gaston would develope,and I told people Earl would be a problem.But know one ever listens in here because I know half of the blog has me on ignore any way.Later.
I keep hearing cooler waters, last time I checked water temp were around 78-79 near Atlantic City, New Jersey,it gets cooler more north, so until then Earl has all the warm water he needs.
1400. ROBTX09
did u read the last part of the discussion chaser
I'll go with 30%
Quoting StormW:
Gaston...playing possum

LINK

Goodafternoon Storm,
It looks like Gaston will be headed into the Caribean. What do you think?
1403. Gearsts
Quoting StormW:
Gaston...playing possum

LINK
lol why you say?If he revives will he be named Gaston again?
I'll go with 30%
I'll go with 30%
1406. ncstorm
Earl has been a non event here in SE NC..just cloudy and somewhat breezy..but I aint mad at him because he was looking like a monster.Thank GOD for the NHC for great forecasting!
Newbie here...Very long time lurker too... Wondering how the Central Jersey Shore will fair. Haven't seen too much conversation on our area...Thanks in advance.
Not that Earl's expected to regain any strength, but I'm noticing the counterclock outflow from the cirrus clouds on his southern end from the water vapor imagery...wasn't like that since he emerged north into the Atlantic passed PR.
1409. ROBTX09
thank u alex and koritheman told ya need ways to go 20% best
Cyclone Oz's Cam is Working Again.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This has to be the highest the TCHP has ever been, not even 2005 was higher...



It may not mean much to you guys, but it's just a witches cauldron of bad medicine waiting for that last little ingredient (eye of newt! or something) for it to turn into a monster.
It's OK said the Captain, keep my brown pants ready...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This has to be the highest the TCHP has ever been, not even 2005 was higher...



Imagine: those areas lightest in color indicate hurricane-inducing water temps down to around 600 feet below the surface...a smorgasbord of untapped fuel just getting larger by the day. It's only a matter of time; I predict multiple Cat 5's in the GoM and/or Caribbean this year...
Up here on the Jersey Shore we are used to the nor'easter storms. I was listening to a online radio broadcast about Earl last night, and they said something that made me laugh... The northeast is not used to these types of storms as they only know their nor'easter with snow... I found that funny. We go through several storms every year with both rain or snow, either way we take a beating here every year. The word from Cape May to Toms River is it will just be a weak nor'easter type storm, and they are not even raising an eyebrow anymore. I'm hopeful to get some rain out of this as we could really use it. If Earl was a cat 4 and came in a bit closer to the shore I am sure people would take it more seriously, but now everyone is pretty much planning their weekends as normal. I however will just watch and see.
Earl came 10 mph shy of Category 5, SO CLOSE!
Quoting ncstorm:
Earl has been a non event here in SE NC..just cloudy and somewhat breezy..but I aint mad at him because he was looking like a monster.Thank GOD for the NHC for great forecasting!


Pfffft!
I think Gaston is not over yet !!!
Quoting StormW:
Gaston...playing possum

LINK


so you believe it will regenerate?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Man looks really bad right now no convection at all combination of dry air and diurnal minimum done him in.
Quoting RecordSeason:
Earl is a goner.

Complete waste of time watching this thing.


Do you like to spread misinformation during times of disaster?
1423. Prgal
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I think Gaston is not over yet !!!


From the 5pm discussion:

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I think Gaston is not over yet !!!
not by a long shot!
Quoting KanKunKid:


It may not mean much to you guys, but it's just a witches cauldron of bad medicine waiting for that last little ingredient (eye of newt! or something) for it to turn into a monster.
It's OK said the Captain, keep my brown pants ready...
So far no storm has been in the carribean to use all that energy.Thank's to sinking air that has been in place in the carribean for almost the whole season now.
Quoting RecordSeason:
Earl is a goner.

Complete waste of time watching this thing.


LOL
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Man looks really bad right now no convection at all combination of dry air and diurnal minimum done him in.


He just needs to get a move on. I do believe he will slowly make a return.
1429. viman
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Who are you?

LOL
earl is making the NNE turn!!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
So far no storm has been in the carribean to use all that energy.Thank's to sinking air that has been in place in the carribean for almost the whole season now.


Yup, but Levi and I think Storm have been saying, that the GOMEX and Caribbean will be heating up later this month.
Quoting ncstorm:
Earl has been a non event here in SE NC..just cloudy and somewhat breezy..but I aint mad at him because he was looking like a monster.Thank GOD for the NHC for great forecasting!


I am probably NW of where you live, in Raleigh, NC. Just overcast here, but I was a bit surprised at the very light rain that occurred here about an hour ago. I expected just clouds.

Earl has been good here, its been insanely hot, and the cloud cover has made it nice. Tomorrow though, its going to be insanely hot again. But, there's no use in complaining because I know the folks down east and up the eastern seaboard are going to have it worse.
1433. ncstorm
Quoting KanKunKid:


Pfffft!


Pffft right back at you!
1434. bwt1982
Happy to see Florida is in the clear with Gatson!!!
OZ is on the beach and surge already moving in.
CycloneOz is at the Beach in the OBX.

http://thextremeweather.com/xtreme-weather-cam.html

Crazy Old Guy...
Go to my blog to see Brian Osbourn live ...surge is already coming into to his beach front scene....WOW!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


He just needs to get a move on. I do believe he will slowly make a return.
No i agree im just making an observation of what i see right now its not done yet.
The storm I'm surprised to see alive at the moment is Fiona.....Gaston is done with.He still has potential to be a threat down the road.
Quoting Trixie1984:
Newbie here...Very long time lurker too... Wondering how the Central Jersey Shore will fair. Haven't seen too much conversation on our area...Thanks in advance.


Rain, gusty winds (with some power outage risk). The waters of course will be dangerous with surf and rip currents.
1442. ROBTX09
1434. bwt1982 9:44 PM GMT on September 02, 2010
Happy to see Florida is in the clear with Gatson!!!

POOF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
So far no storm has been in the carribean to use all that energy.Thank's to sinking air that has been in place in the carribean for almost the whole season now.

Yep, I live here y'know (on the Caribbean) Lots of sun and no willy willies. But a squall here will knock you off your feet, lemme tell ya! She is ripe for the picking!
Quoting RecordSeason:
Earl is a goner.

Complete waste of time watching this thing.
Quoting RecordSeason:
Earl is a goner.

Complete waste of time watching this thing.
He sure fell short of my standards...
Judging by this animation, pre-Hermine will have less SAL to deal with than Gaston, whoe was pretty much swaddled by it when he crawled out over the east Atlantic. The two waves coming off over the next few days may also have the same advantage; we'll have to see.

Click for larger image:
1447. ncstorm
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I am probably NW of where you live, in Raleigh, NC. Just overcast here, but I was a bit surprised at the very light rain that occurred here about an hour ago. I expected just clouds.

Earl has been good here, its been insanely hot, and the cloud cover has made it nice. Tomorrow though, its going to be insanely hot again. But, there's no use in complaining because I know the folks down east and up the eastern seaboard are going to have it worse.


Yeah the local news said it will be 95 here tomorrow..something about Hurricanes making the air unstable and hot..thank goodness we didnt lose power and had to endure those temps without air..the people up the coast hopefully will fare the same way as we did as far as the winds and rain
Radar shows that Earl is still stuck in the middle of an EWRC, and therefore will only keep weakening until the inner eyewall finishes collapsing.

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'll go with 30%


You went with 30 twice, isn't that 60?
1450. SLU
Notorious Cape Verde Hurricane parades.













1451. IKE
This is the reason Fiona is still a TS:

Quoting RecordSeason:
1422:

Huh?

The eye wall is non-existent and he is curving out to sea now.

Heck, NC is barely even going to get any weather at all, and at this rate neither is anyone else.


Earl's weakening, not dissipating.

As for the rest...



Cone says it all.
Quoting IKE:
I see a movement east of due north
1455. viman
Earl may or maynot be a fish but I'll tell you what I'm coming up on my 4th day without electricity and it probably will be over a week before i get it. Fish or not he left his mark on the Virgin Islands...
Quoting washingtonian115:
The storm I'm surprised to see alive at the moment is Fiona.....Gaston is done with.He still has potential to be a threat down the road.


That's what makes the tropics interesting, you're pretty sure you know what's going to happen, and then stuff like this is surprising. I had just issued a forecast on Gaston that now seems overdone. But, I did say I have a high uncertainty in the forecast with a disclaimer " This forecast intensity may be way too generous if dry air kills off Gaston. This forecast inensity may be too low if Gaston mixes out dry air more than expected and strengthens faster. This is a low-confidence intensity forecast." (Sigh), the wonders of the tropics.

I know Gaston still has a regeneration risk, but it sure looks like its unraveling fast (its going to be some work for it to come back). Still watch it though in the Lesser Antilles.
Rare...here..."No one's really gonna to be free until nerd persecution ends."
Quoting bwt1982:
Happy to see Florida is in the clear with Gatson!!!
Really?.Your giving false information right now.You nor I won't actually know where Gaston will be in the future.
I still say he looks really good

You all on the East Coast need to say a Prayer to Jesus or to Allah or as Stephen Hawkings said today, to the laws of physics, that Earl is taking a less threatening path.
Quoting RecordSeason:
Complete waste of time watching this thing.


Yeah? You should write to someone and ask for your money back, since they made you watch it and all.
Quoting ncstorm:


Pffft right back at you!


Thanks, I needed that.

No, it was as if your comment was saying, thanks to the NHC forecast, you were spared Earl's wrath. I mean, the NHC is good, real good! But they're not that good. Of course, I could have misunderstood what you were saying, but my first reaction was Pffft! Care to elucidate?
Winds 25mph sustained at Cape Point.
Quoting viman:
Earl may or maynot be a fish but I'll tell you what I'm coming up on my 4th day without electricity and it probably will be over a week before i get it. Fish or not he left his mark on the Virgin Islands...


Earl isn't and hasn't been a fish for days.
Quoting IKE:
Going to have to break out my dvd of The Delicate Sound of Thunder. Thanks Ike, Flood. Made me realize how long it's been since I watched it. Skol!
I don't understand any of the Earl-Fish remarks. Even if he were to dissipate this vary second, or go due EAST, he'd still NOT be a fish.
It has already affected many many people in the Islands.
1469. ROBTX09
NEW BLOG!!!!
well i really hope gaston is gone for good, but i have a feeling in day or 2 he'll return.
Quoting viman:
Earl may or maynot be a fish but I'll tell you what I'm coming up on my 4th day without electricity and it probably will be over a week before i get it. Fish or not he left his mark on the Virgin Islands...


Are you using your phone to blog, got a generator to keep running things at home :) ? I know if I had no power, I wouldn't be able to blog, wish I had a generator or good phone to be able to keep blogging if I had bad weather.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You all on the East Coast need to say a Prayer to Jesus or to Allah or as Stephen Hawkings said today, to the laws of physics, that Earl is taking a less threatening path.


inb4 ****storm
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


That's what makes the tropics interesting, you're pretty sure you know what's going to happen, and then stuff like this is surprising. I had just issued a forecast on Gaston that now seems overdone. But, I did say I have a high uncertainty in the forecast with a disclaimer " This forecast intensity may be way too generous if dry air kills off Gaston. This forecast inensity may be too low if Gaston mixes out dry air more than expected and strengthens faster. This is a low-confidence intensity forecast." (Sigh), the wonders of the tropics.

I know Gaston still has a regeneration risk, but it sure looks like its unraveling fast (its going to be some work for it to come back). Still watch it though in the Lesser Antilles.
I think by the time Gaston makes it to the lesser antilies he may be a 50mph tropical storm.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Do you like to spread misinformation during times of disaster?


I am stunned that people like this are not banned immediately from this blog

um not meant for you Koritheman, but the person you were responding too
New entry from Jeff Masters. Let’s see what the doc says…
1477. beell
Earl's exhaust vent is strong enough to deform the upper level flow. In a nice gentle arc from SW Maine to eastern KY. The trough will prevail, of course. Kinda cool.


Loop
1479. ncstorm
Quoting KanKunKid:


Thanks, I needed that.

No, it was as if your comment was saying, thanks to the NHC forecast, you were spared Earl's wrath. I mean, the NHC is good, real good! But they're not that good. Of course, I could have misunderstood what you were saying, but my first reaction was Pffft! Care to elucidate?


As far as NC, the NHC were on point with Earl when it counted, they may not have been exact but neither was ANYONE else, if you could do better, by all means, do so but right now I still thank GOD for the NHC. Finding faults in forecast points that were eithier a wee bit east or a wee bit west didnt cost any lives and at the end of that day, thats what really mattters!
1480. ROBTX09
tell that to the admin
Quoting KoritheMan:


Do you like to spread misinformation during times of disaster?


Didn't you give a definition for that earlier, Kori?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I still say he looks really good



He still looks good, as 115 mph Cat3 storms are dangerous and "good"...now the last of his older inner eyewall is fading and the newer larger eye wall is taking over...will it take advantage of the Gulf Stream and reorganize further?

Nice to have him moving east of North as the western edge of his new eyewall is West of South from the OBX...going due north it would have run over the length of the Islands from Hatteras Light House North.
Hey, what's the deal Earl?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Has anyone else noticed that Earl has been moving NE or NNE and wobbled east of 75W longitude? I thought it would keep going north along 75W longitude till it got near NC/VA border latitude, then bend more east. Well, this is slightly better news for Cape Hatteras and all the folks up and down the eastern seaboard (but slightly bad news for my forecast accuracy LOL, but as long as it good news for people, that's what counts).
Updated cone for Gaston

http://img.waffleimages.com/1d8f03ca5d51924a6c9dd8a466484638e8b4fd24/gastonforecast.jpg
1485. bwt1982
Quoting ROBTX09:
tell that to the admin


POOF!!!
1486. IKE
Definite turn to the east of north on the 2145UTC visible floater on Earl...Link
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Hey, what's the deal Earl?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Has anyone else noticed that Earl has been moving NE or NNE and wobbled east of 75W longitude? I thought it would keep going north along 75W longitude till it got near NC/VA border latitude, then bend more east. Well, this is slightly better news for Cape Hatteras and all the folks up and down the eastern seaboard (but slightly bad news for my forecast accuracy LOL, but as long as it good news for people, that's what counts).


Yup saw it on TWC don't know if it's accurate enough but the center did just wobble east of 75 degrees longitude. I hope he's not fooling us into thinking he's going away.
My local report suggests up to 50mph winds for tomorrow afternoon, and the winds will stick around until Saturday with 30mph. I will see if this changes in a few hours. I am curious to have an idea of how far off the coast of NJ the storm might be for Friday afternoon?
Everyone can have their opinion on the NHC...But I think they are close to nailing this one!! They may have been off a few hundred miles thru the lifespan of this storm, but it's not an EXACT science. In my opinion(that's all it is), they did another good job on this one...as well as Storm and Levi...Levi said yesterday that it was not gonna hold it's strenght due to dry air and he nailed it as well...great job guys...I know it's not over yet....but close...
Quoting IKE:
Definite turn to the east of north on the 2145UTC visible floater on Earl...Link


Yes, not the only one who saw it!

Quoting JerseyShoreGirl:
My local report suggests up to 50mph winds for tomorrow afternoon, and the winds will stick around until Saturday with 30mph. I will see if this changes in a few hours. I am curious to have an idea of how far off the coast of NJ the storm might be for Friday afternoon?


If the eastward bend in track continues, I am thinking it could follow the right side of my forecast cone. That's a fairly nice distance east of the Jersey shore.
1491. bwt1982
Gatson is dead!
1492. TGTTX
Quoting NOSinger:
Everyone can have their opinion on the NHC...But I think they are close to nailing this one!! They may have been off a few hundred miles thru the lifespan of this storm, but it's not an EXACT science. In my opinion(that's all it is), they did another good job on this one...as well as Storm and Levi...Levi said yesterday that it was not gonna hold it's strenght due to dry air and he nailed it as well...great job guys...I know it's not over yet....but close...


Absolutely agreed. Kudos to NHC, Storm, and Levi. This is an amazing process, and I really admire the skill, patience, knowledge and objectivity these folks have to get it this well. Wow.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

If the eastward bend in track continues, I am thinking it could follow the right side of my forecast cone. That's a fairly nice distance east of the Jersey shore.
Thank you. I will certainly check back for the 8, and 11pm reports, and then again at 5am.
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