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Dust forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:58 PM GMT on June 20, 2009

There will be less African dust than usual over the tropical Atlantic during this year's hurricane season, according to a new experimental dust forecast issued by Dr. Amato Evan of the University of Wisconsin. Dr. Evan used a statistical model that correlated levels of dust activity in past years with rainfall over the Sahel region of Africa and a natural regional wind pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). He forecasts that dust levels over the Main Development Region (MDR, 8 - 20°N & 15 - 65°W) for Atlantic hurricanes during this year's hurricane season will be similar to last year's below-average levels, thanks in large part to plentiful rains over the Sahel region of Africa during the 2008 rainy season (Figure 1). However, the dust levels expected this year do not approach the record lows seen in 1994 and 2005. Dust forecasts made in May or June are skillful going out five months, with a skill 11 - 16% better than a "no-skill" forecast using climatology.


Figure 1. Rainfall over the Sahel region of Africa was generally 50 - 100 mm (2 - 4 inches) above average during the 2008 rainy season (about 20 - 80% above average). The heavy rains promoted vigorous vegetation growth in 2009, resulting in less bare ground capable of generating dust. Image credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.

The Sahara and the Sahel: significant sources of dust
The summertime dust that affects Atlantic tropical storms originates over the southwestern Sahara (18° - 22° N) and the northwestern Sahel (15° - 18° N) (Figure 2). The dust that originates in the Southwest Sahara stays relatively constant from year to year. However, the dust from the northwestern Sahel varies significantly from year to year, and understanding this variation may be a key factor in improving our forecasts of seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The amount of dust that gets transported over the Atlantic depends on a mix of three main factors: the large scale and local scale weather patterns (windy weather transports more dust), how wet the current rainy season is (wet weather will wash out dust before it gets transported over the Atlantic), and how dry and drought-damaged the soil is. The level of drought experienced in the northwestern Sahel during the previous year's rainy season (June - October) is the key factor of the three in determining how much dust gets transported over the Atlantic during hurricane season, according to a January 2004 study published in Geophysical Research Letters published by C. Moulin and I. Chiapello. A dry rainy season the previous year will make an expanded area of loose soil which can create dust. It is also possible that the corresponding changes in vegetation can alter the regional weather patterns, causing more dust production.


Figure 2. Map of the mean summer dust optical thickness derived from satellite measurements between 1979 and 2000. Maximum dust amounts originate in the northern Sahel (15° to 18° N) and the Sahara (18° to 22° N). The Bodele depression in Chad is also an active dust source. Image credit: Evidence of the control of summer atmospheric transport of African dust over the Atlantic by Sahel sources from TOMS satellites (1979-2000) by C. Moulin and I. Chiapello, published in January 2004 in Geophysical Research Letters.

How dust suppresses hurricanes
Dust acts as a shield which keeps sunlight from reaching the surface. Thus, large amounts of dust can keep the sea surface temperatures up to 1°C cooler than average in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) off the coast of Africa, providing hurricanes with less energy to form and grow. Dust also affects the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), an layer of dry, dusty Saharan air that rides up over the low-level moist air over the tropical Atlantic. At the boundary between the SAL and low-level moist air where the trade winds blow is the trade wind inversion--a region of the atmosphere where the temperature increases with height. Since atmospheric temperature normally decreases with height, this "inversion" acts to but the brakes on any thunderstorms that try to punch through it. This happens because the air in a thunderstorm's updraft suddenly encounters a region where the updraft air is cooler and less buoyant than the surrounding air, and thus will not be able to keep moving upward. The dust in the SAL absorbs solar radiation, which heats the air in the trade wind inversion. This makes the inversion stronger, which inhibits the thunderstorms that power a hurricane. The dust may also act to interfere with the formation of cloud drops and rain drops that these thunderstorms need to grow, but little is known about such effects. It is possible that dust may act to help hurricanes by serving as "condensation nuclei"--centers around which raindrops can form and grow.

For additional reading
Dr. Evan published a study in Science magazine this March showing that 69% of the increase in Atlantic sea surface temperatures over the past 26 years could be attributed to decreases in the amount of dust in the atmosphere.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. beell
Levi! Look! a trough split we can agree on!
j/k

The 500mb 18Z at 36hrs
Sharp wind shifts but light winds across the BOC

1464. H23

The 2nd area is the Bermuda ridge which is displaced farther to the EAST now, meaning 'recurve' potential is high for the next 6 weeks or so.


Valid points but steering patterns this far out? seems like throwing darts at a board to me who knows what will happen until we get to those months.
1504. Levi32
Quoting beell:
Levi! Look! a trough split we can agree on!
j/k

The 500mb 18Z at 36hrs


I hate to break it to you beell....but if you're looking at the 500mb circulation over Panama, that circulation is pre-existing and is not a split piece from the trough lol. The real trough-split takes place a day or two after that. You can see it in the image below in the Bay of Campeche where it will have moved into by that time. Grrr and here I wanted so much to agree that we agree! lol =)

GFS 500mb 96 hours:

1505. vortfix
OMG...you people are posting advisories and discussions!

If it's that boring...please go play video games!

1509. Levi32
Quoting vortfix:
OMG...you people are posting advisories and discussions!

If it's that boring...please go play video games!



Spoken from the advisory-posting master lol, and I don't play video games =P
1510. beell
You're killin' me, Levi lol!
We'll see
)
whats do you guys think hmmmmm


Link
1512. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats do you guys think hmmmmm


Link


I think it's ridiculous that after all this they're still saying "El Nino MAY come"...."El Nino Watch issued"....."50% chance of El Nino this year".

Come on guys.....El Nino is already here.

Thanks for the article Taz.
(((02E ANDRES)))
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 986.1mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 4.0 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Center Temp : -78.6C Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
I've seen 92 at midnight in Atlanta and Central Park during heat waves.
Quoting stillwaiting:



part of the mjo pulse moving into the southern GOM????

...not the mojo pulse again!
that always makes for trouble.
My family and I are taking a 7-day cruise from Galveston to Key West and the Bahamas from July 12-19th.

Hopefully we see some interesting weather develop... nothing nasty, just interesting.

Been on two Carribean cruises in August before... but no tropical storms, hurricanes or any interesting weather. Nothing but nice, pleasant Carribean atmosphere.

Hopeful that nothing hits Houston while were not home. :>)
Quoting Levi32:


I think it's ridiculous that after all this they're still saying "El Nino MAY come"...."El Nino Watch issued"....."50% chance of El Nino this year".

Come on guys.....El Nino is already here.

Thanks for the article Taz.

It's a little El Nino though. The ridge will hold back westerlies if it stays put, won't it?
1518. Levi32
Quoting Chicklit:

It's a little El Nino though. The ridge will hold back westerlies if it stays put, won't it?


What ridge do you mean?

Yeah it's in its infancy right now but it will be growing up as we get into the fall and probably peak during winter. I don't think this will be a multi-year event.
What do you call it, Levi?
I know very little about the technical side.
I watch cloud formations and try to follow along with the technical conversations.
Just throwing my two cents in.
Enlighten me please.
1521. Levi32
Quoting Chicklit:
What do you call it, Levi?


I don't know if I don't know what ridge lol :P

What's going through my mind right now is that there are no semi-permanent ridges in the equatorial Pacific, which is why I am not sure what you're talking about.

Where is the ridge you're talking about located?
It is what I understand as the downward MJO in the Caribbean, Florida, The Gulf. Is this totally wrong?
vortfix, i think you're about to be reported for being rude.
1525. Levi32
Quoting Chicklit:
It is what I understand as the downward MJO. Where is the Caribbean, Florida, The Gulf.


Ok that's the MJO upward-motion pulse that is bringing upward motion and therefore increased moisture to the east Pacific and the areas you mentioned. That's not a high pressure area though; it actually creates lower surface pressures because of the rising air.

Since air flows towards low pressure, westerlies from the west are very welcomed and received warmly in the east Pacific lol. The downward air motion in the west Pacific and Indian Ocean forces air to spread out at the ocean surface, causing it to travel eastward, and then it gets sucked back up into the atmosphere by the low pressure in the east Pacific.
1527. gator23
Quoting hurricane2009:
Question

since when is it being bored or a bad thing to post advisories for tropical systems? Even if they arent in the Atlantic.

Can someone enlighten me on this one?


July 10th


02E/H/C1/A

BEARING NNW SHIFTING WNW
TRACK ALONG NORTHERN EDGE ALBATROSS PLATEAU 90 TO 100 MILES OFFSHORE

Quoting vortfix:
Nah Chicklit.
I don't think there's a rude report on the WU.
I am not being rude...I just know what I'm talking about!
Maybe you would rather listen to 17 year old tropical "Experts" who live in Alaska!

Report that!



LOL.......dido
1531. Levi32
Quoting vortfix:
Nah Chicklit.
I don't think there's a rude report on the WU.
I am not being rude...I just know what I'm talking about!
Maybe you would rather listen to 17 year old tropical "Experts" who live in Alaska!

Report that!



Ok well all I want to say is that certainly nobody has to listen to anything I say. I'm not a certified Meteorologist, but most people on this blog aren't. We are fortunate to have amongst us several certified Meteorologists who we can learn a lot from. And for official information consult the NHC and NWS offices. That's why I posted the advisories in the firstest place.
1532. gator23
Quoting Levi32:


Ok well all I want to say is that certainly nobody has to listen (July 10)to anything I say. I'm not a certified Meteorologist, but most people on this blog aren't. We are fortunate to have amongst us several certified Meteorologists who we can learn a lot from.


As far as im (July 10) concerned no one on here "knows" whats going on. its weather we can only guess. If people want to post advisories i say great (July 10) at least the advisory will have better guesses (July 10) than mine and 80 percent of the WU bloggers.
vortfix, i don't know what's buggin you but i suggest you turn off your computer and find out. man, you have a chip on your shoulder the size of the empire state building.
if you have nothing to contribute to the conversation then shut up.
1534. gator23
Quoting Chicklit:
vortfix, i don't know what's buggin you but i suggest you turn off your computer and find out. man, you have a chip on your shoulder the size of the empire state building.
if you have nothing to contribute to the conversation then shut up.


he is just upset Imus (July 10) was fired.
1535. vortfix
We are fortunate to have amongst us several certified Meteorologists who we can learn a lot from.


N0...there's none of those on here either.

Quoting Levi32:


I think it's ridiculous that after all this they're still saying "El Nino MAY come"...."El Nino Watch issued"....."50% chance of El Nino this year".

Come on guys.....El Nino is already here.

Thanks for the article Taz.
Quoting Levi32:


I think it's ridiculous that after all this they're still saying "El Nino MAY come"...."El Nino Watch issued"....."50% chance of El Nino this year".

Come on guys.....El Nino is already here.

Thanks for the article Taz.



your welcome
Thanks, Hurricane.
I'm going to go read a book.
1540. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been dropped for all but two counties

It is still in effect for...

Brevard and Indian River counties until 1am


It sure didn't materialize much did it. Apparently the region of instability was too far to the east.
1541. gator23
Quoting Chicklit:
Thanks, Hurricane.
I'm going to go read a book.


Read Gods Other Son by Don Imus so that you and Vortfix can get along. (July 10)

Link
1543. Levi32
Thanks for helping to explain it Storm.
If anyone has a link to the data I'm looking for, could you please send it to me??? I am not looking for maps, just easy to understand numbers...Thanks


1494. ajcamsmom2 10:05 PM CDT on June 22, 2009
last year someone gave us a link to a monthly sst data chart where you could see the average temps for any given month that went back several years...does anyone have the link???

If I understood anything anyone was talking about in here, I'd be even more ignorant than I feel already.

Thus far, in layman's terms there is/isn't enough dust in Africa which means we are/aren't going to have more/less dust in the atmosphere months before hand to affect/have no affect on the amount or intensity of tropical systems we see this year because sea surface temperatures are/are not being suppressed/repressed/without estrogen, which will then be aided/unaided/laughed at by an assisting full/partial/neutral/non El Nino/La Nina/La Vida Loca event.

Grand. Now it all makes sense.
1549. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:


Well I think we will see more in the ways of storms tomorrow


You're probably right with the high over the northern Gulf retreating westward and a "back-door front" of sorts pushes westward into Florida from the SW Atlantic.
hello stormw good to see ya even i just learn something from that explanation thank you very much
something new to watch as the season moves along
1552. Levi32
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
If anyone has a link to the data I'm looking for, could you please send it to me??? I am not looking for maps, just easy to understand numbers...Thanks


1494. ajcamsmom2 10:05 PM CDT on June 22, 2009
last year someone gave us a link to a monthly sst data chart where you could see the average temps for any given month that went back several years...does anyone have the link???



BTW I'm sorry your request keeps getting ignored lol. I don't have the link, and I looked for it in vain. I'm sure it will turn up if you keep posting that during the main blogging hours.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2

Quoting catfuraplenty:
If I understood anything anyone was talking about in here, I'd be even more ignorant than I feel already.

Thus far, in layman's terms there is/isn't enough dust in Africa which means we are/aren't going to have more/less dust in the atmosphere months before hand to affect/have no affect on the amount or intensity of tropical systems we see this year because sea surface temperatures are/are not being suppressed/repressed/without estrogen, which will then be aided/unaided/laughed at by an assisting full/partial/neutral/non El Nino/La Nina/La Vida Loca event.

Grand. Now it all makes sense.
yep we have no idea whats too happen after its all said and done
great job isn't it and you can actually get paid for it
Thanks, I will...off to sleep now, but if anyone can find the link...please mail it to me...

1552. Levi32 11:24 PM CDT on June 22, 2009
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
If anyone has a link to the data I'm looking for, could you please send it to me??? I am not looking for maps, just easy to understand numbers...Thanks


1494. ajcamsmom2 10:05 PM CDT on June 22, 2009
last year someone gave us a link to a monthly sst data chart where you could see the average temps for any given month that went back several years...does anyone have the link???




BTW I'm sorry your request keeps getting ignored lol. I don't have the link, and I looked for it in vain. I'm sure it will turn up if you keep posting that during the main blogging hours.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
1558. GetReal
Ajcam I sent you the link I think you were looking for... with the SST archives...
1559. Levi32
Quoting GetReal:
Ajcam I sent you the link I think you were looking for... with the SST archives...


Care to share?
1560. GetReal
Quoting Levi32:


Care to share?


Reynolds SST Analysis
1561. Levi32
Quoting GetReal:


Reynolds SST Analysis


Oh wow right under my nose....thanks GR.
Look on the bright side people, there may be, somewhere, lurking, a remnant of Karen, ready to regenerate at any time. I will check back tomorrow, to see about Andres, even if it is in the EPAC, and on the low chance of that BOC cluster developing. This blog is more entertaining and addictive than a soap opera. Only June, and already drama.
1564. GetReal
Levi save it to your blog favorite links....
1565. Levi32
Quoting GetReal:
Levi save it to your blog favorite links....


I will....need to update that list it's 3 years old. That's why I created this
Quoting hurricane2009:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been dropped for all but two counties

It is still in effect for...

Brevard and Indian River counties until 1am


better watch out later today then!
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUN 2009 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 16:52:39 N Lon : 103:10:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 986.0mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 4.3 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
looks like a cat 1 at 69 kts but weakening flag is on may not be one for to long
Quoting Orcasystems:


Looks like a hot soup.

Whats the temps deeper down?
I see some mean looking thunderstorms off the east coast of florida, is this the welcoming party of the so called possible severe weather that will be around for the next day or 2?
Why does everyone fight on here?
1572. Levi32
Quoting AussieStorm:

Whats the temps deeper down?


This should give you an idea.

Depth of the 26C isotherm (how deep the layer of water is that is warm enough to support TC development):

Quoting AussieStorm:

Whats the temps deeper down?

I deleted it.. it was 3 days old..
Quoting TampaMishy:
Why does everyone fight on here?


Hi Mishy.. whos fighting?
What did I miss?
1575. Levi32
Andres' inner core structure still appears to be rather ragged. The system is trying to form an eyewall but isn't quite strong enough yet. That's why we usually only see eyes in hurricanes and not in tropical storms since they are weaker.

1576. vortfix
Nobody is fighting Mishy.

Quoting Orcasystems:


Hi Mishy.. whos fighting?
What did I miss?
ORCA the whale!!! How are you? I was reading some post from people on here.
Quoting vortfix:
Nobody is fighting Mishy.

k
Who's fighting? We all LOVE each-other.Its just spirited dicussions!
MX from the E PAC looks like its going to be geting hit in fac it looks like it will be makeing land fall here soon or some time on tuesday
Quoting AussieStorm:

Whats the temps deeper down?
not sure aussie but i know it has to be at 160 ft at least
was somebody fighting did'nt see it
lol
miss it mishy
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical CYclone Bulletin #2
===========================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Feria located at 11.3°N 126.4°E or 100 kms east of Borongan, Samar has 10 minutes sustained winds of 65 km/h (35 knots) with gusts of 80 km/h (45 knots).

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Masbate
2.Ticao Island
3.Sorsogon
4.Albay

Visayas Region
-------------
1.Samar Provinces
2.Leyte
3.Biliran Island

Mindanao Region
----------------
1.None

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Camarines Provinces
2.Southern Quezon
3.Catanduanes
4.Burias Island
5.Romblon
6.Marinduque

Visayas Region
-------------
1.Southern Leyte
2.Camotes Is.
3.Cebu
4.Bohol
5.Northern Negros
6.Capiz
7.Iloilo
8.Aklan

Mindanao Region
----------------
1.Dinagat Is.
2.Siargao
3.Surigao del Norte
4.Camiguin

Additional Information
========================
Residents living in low lying areas and mountanous including coastal areas under signal #2 and 1 are alerted against possible flashloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 P.M. today.
1586. vortfix



I can't get the 0Z - is ncep down?
1588. Levi32
Quoting Kowaliga:
I can't get the 0Z - is ncep down?


No...00z GFS
Quoting Kowaliga:
I can't get the 0Z - is ncep down?


Working for me.
Quoting washingaway:


Working for me.


Quoting Levi32:


No...00z GFS


Thanx guys - java hung / rebooted!
That high anchored over the Gulf has had a pretty dramatic effect on SST's...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUN 2009 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 16:52:39 N Lon : 103:10:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 986.0mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 4.3 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
looks like a cat 1 at 69 kts but weakening flag is on may not be one for to long


aye, but the Constraints are off.
Station SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 88.2 °F

Station GPST2 - 8771510 - Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 91.8 °F

Station GTOT2 - 8771450 - Galveston Pier 21, TX
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 94.8 °F

Yep! They are toasty here out west. And that highs not moving off us for a while. :)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
DEPRESSION ARB01-2009
8:30 AM IST June 23 2009
==================================

Subject: Depression over east central Arabian Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB01-2009 located at 19.0N 71.5E, or about 150 km west of Mumbai and 300 km south-southwest of Surat.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates gradual organization of convection during the past 12 hours. The intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low /medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Arabian Sea between 16.5N and 21.0N and to the east of 67.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate (around 10-20 knots). Sea surface temperature is favorable for intensification and is 0.50 to 1.00C above normal. The system lies embedded in the southwesterly flow in lower and middle levels. The upper tropospheric ridge roughly runs along 21.0N.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and move in a north-northeasterly direction and cross south Gujarat coast near Surat by this evening/night.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (T0904)
15:00 PM JST June 23 2009
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nangka (998 hPa) located at 12.1N 125.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.3N 121.4E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.7N 120.2E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 19.5N 119.6E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1)
1596. sjm45
Hades - is there a good site giving info about tropical storms around West pacific and Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea? Where do you get your info? I can never find pressure readings!

Is it quite rare to have a Cyclone in Arabian sea? Don't seem to see them much.

TS 4 - must be nearly a cyclone by now. It looks well formed to me.
SJM
West Pacific ocean there are so many sites

Digital Typhoon
Typhoon 2000
Japan Meteorological Agency (RSMC)
China Meteorological Administration
Hong Kong Observatory
Korea Meteorological Administration
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

----
For the Indian Ocean

India Meteorological Department (RSMC)
Thailand Meteorological Department
Pakistan Meteorological Department

The pressure reading for the advisories are found under the RSMC Tropical Cyclone Outlook page.

Arabian Sea usually get at least 1 cyclone a year.
TS 4 is Tropical Storm Nangka, by the way sjm
1599. sjm45
Hades - no worries I followed your info to the Japanese Meteo. website. Which serves its purpose. Thanks.
1600. IKE
Today: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 106. Calm wind becoming northwest between 5 and 10 mph............


Under 100 for the high....YEEHAW~~~~~~~
1602. IKE
Looks like Andres is paralleling the coast.

Think the NHC is about right on the track. Looks to stay mainly offshore.
A day late but, we'll take it. I don't think they could have been more wrong about yesterday, lol.

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
A day late but, we'll take it. I don't think they could have been more wrong about yesterday, lol.

Yeah, I agree. During the day yesterday it was very dry for a June day. Kind of felt like Las Vegas, relatively speaking, for Florida at least. We'll take it today though. I just woke up to the complete opposite weather of yesterday. Nie T-storm just ripped through my house at Deerfield Beach, the lightning and thunder just sent my dog into her closet bunker. LOL This T-storm isn't even from the line heading south from the Palm Beaches, we're about to get slammed.
1606. IKE
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
A day late but, we'll take it. I don't think they could have been more wrong about yesterday, lol.



Same thing with the heat-wave letting up. It took longer then they thought.

I think the models they use(we look at), are showing changes too fast.
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Update

Thanks 456, I was wondering about that trough hanging off the low that caused delays at The U.S. Open this past weekend. The tail of the trough looked like a classic set-up for late season trough/tropical development. We'll see. Maybe it will create a decent swell up-coast.
Morning all. Stay safe Floridians!
Very interesting Storm. Thanks (as always!) for taking the time to teach.
Yeah, it is raining - ever so lightly now but more to come. Cooler temps on the way!
1613. IKE
Starting to see a few clouds in central Alabama, heading south.

Our heat wave is close to being over...for now...starting tomorrow....hopefully...please....in a nice way.
1557. StormW 11:32 PM CDT on June 22, 2009


Thanks Storm, but the one I am looking for is just numbers in columns, no maps, it is real easy to understand...just a few columns running down the page, with areas at the top, SST's and anomolies...I believe that's how it went anyway, I haven't seen it for a year now...

Quoting IKE:
Starting to see a few clouds in central Alabama, heading south.

Our heat wave is close to being over...for now...starting tomorrow....hopefully...please....in a nice way.

I had a strong T-storm at 5am! 1500 lightning strikes!
1616. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:

I had a strong T-storm at 5am! 1500 lightning strikes!


Glad ya'll are getting rain....

Panhandle has a chance...30% at my house....today.
1617. IKE
Oh yeah....642 more GFS runs and the tropical season is over:)
Update:I am still in the full brunt of this storm in Boca Raton. I still have power and we had gusty winds but lightning is not that bad.There is more storms to the north. Oh!and good luck Broward and Miami dade.
Avon Park, Highlands County, FL
CoCoRaHS Stn FL-HL-2
T-Storms raced through between 6:20 - 7:30 dumping .80 inch of rain, frequent lightning, one strike across the street at the high school sounded like a bomb went off.
Temperature dropped ten degrees, bringing much needed relief from the overnight low temp of sticky 81. Area under severe T-Storm watch until 3PM.
good morn all

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUN 2009 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 17:33:46 N Lon : 103:34:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 982.6mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.9 3.7 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Center Temp : -72.9C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************

1621. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...BRINGING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED...WITH A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
1622. IKE
NAM puts a lot of moisture in the western Caribbean on the end(84 hours), of it's last run....

The high desert of northern New Mexico has been sandwiched between the doom High over Texas and a Low on the California / Arizona border.

Results of this sandwich?

Delicious weather! :)




For those of you who live along the sweltering Gulf Coast, please know that the thing causing your suffering is having the opposite effect on the few of us living here! :)
Thus far, in layman's terms there is/isn't enough dust in Africa which means we are/aren't going to have more/less dust in the atmosphere months before hand to affect/have no affect on the amount or intensity of tropical systems we see this year because sea surface temperatures are/are not being suppressed/repressed/without estrogen, which will then be aided/unaided/laughed at by an assisting full/partial/neutral/non El Nino/La Nina/La Vida Loca event.


LOL That certainly clears things up for me! Thanks
Quoting IKE:
Starting to see a few clouds in central Alabama, heading south.

Our heat wave is close to being over...for now...starting tomorrow....hopefully...please....in a nice way.


oh pretty please with a cherry on top?
Finally a break in the rain..What a morning! On a sad note...Ed McMahon passed away this morning.
1627. WxLogic
Morning...
Quoting CycloneOz:
The high desert of northern New Mexico has been sandwiched between the doom High over Texas and a Low on the California / Arizona border.

Results of this sandwich?

Delicious weather! :)




For those of you who live along the sweltering Gulf Coast, please know that the thing causing your suffering is having the opposite effect on the few of us living here! :)


HEY OZ,
in the most sweetest, nicest way I can put this.....Bite Me!
1629. IKE
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


oh pretty please with a cherry on top?



Good morning from Deerfield Beach. Was awakened by a lightning strike that must have only been yards away from my condo. Nasty area of thunderstorms just came thruough here---wind really picked up and the lightning could only be described as excessive.

Stay safe everyone!
1631. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Finally a break in the rain..What a morning! On a sad note...Ed McMahon passed away this morning.


Sorry to hear that.....Carson and McMahon both gone...
02E
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES 6:00UTC 23June2009
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 16:50:48 N
Longitude : 103:08:46 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 990.5 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 905.1 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 85.4 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 13.1 m/s
Direction : 66.8 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
N N N N

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0
1633. lavinia
1608

Thank you very much StormW. That helped me immensely.
Quoting IKE:





thanks, I just gained 2 lbs....oh wait, no biggie, I'll just sweat that off today!!

from 5:30 to 6:30 this morning it was nice, small breeze, you could sit outside without breaking a sweat. Our local met said we have a small chance of a shower this evening. I am keeping my fingers crossed
1635. IKE
I see why we have a chance today...trough is digging down into central Alabama and heading towards the south....
Thank you Storm for the information.

Quoting StormW:
This is for Chicklit from yesterday evening, or whoever wants the info:

Chicklit,
This may help put into perspective what Levi is telling you:

This first site, you'll see orange and green...this represents the downward and upward motion of the MJO. Orange being downward motion or "sinking air", and green showing upward motion or "rising air" As Levi said, wind flows from higher to lower pressure. Where you have sinking air, pressures tend to be higher, and when the air hits the surface, it spreads out and heads toward lower pressure. So, with the orange over India and Australia, etc, air is sinking and spreading out, and heads east toward the green over South America and GOMEX. As this air sinks BTW, it compresses, and warms. This has a tendency to dry out the atmosphere, not much unlike the ridge we've been dealing with in our area. So, that's kinda what's affected the Indian Monsoon. This creates a westerly wind that helps push the warm water in the WPAC over toward the EPAC. When the MJO pulse is strong enough downward, it pushes a wave of warm water in the subsurface, known as a Kelvin Wave, eastward. This wave sloshes back and up from the coast of South America, and that's where we see the warm tongue that extends from South America, westward. It is the same westerly wind that helps to increase wind shear in the Atlantic Basin.

Where you see green, that is upward motion, and generally where you will see increased convective activity, as this aids in providing "lift" to the atmosphere. Think of it generally as no lift, no clouds.

MJO FORECAST



The next tool is the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index. By looking at the graph, you can basicaly tell which direction the winds in the PAC are are coming from...when this graph is in the negative, like it is now, this indicates some hefty westerly (direction the wind is coming from) winds coming from the WPAC. When this is up in the positive, the trades begin to blow in the opposite direction (from South America and across toward the WPAC.

As it goes from the positive toward zero, this is an indication that the easterly tardes are weakening, and vice versa.

The graph is derived from the difference in the MSLP of Darwin Australia, and Tahiti. When pressures are higher over Darwin, and lower over Tahiti, the SOI heads for the negative, and the opposite occurs when the pressure differences are reversed.

ENSO WRAP UP


with shear forecast to relax in the western caibbean then the tropical wave in the vicinity could be the trigger for something to evolve the next few days
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
On a sad note...Ed McMahon passed away this morning.


You are correct, sir!

He has passed on to that great clearinghouse in the sky.
Man this is awfully sad.The City of Lake Worth lost power from this storm.FPL always said they are ready for this hurricane season and they "strengthened" power lines.Ha yeah right!
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Man this is awfully sad.The City of Lake Worth lost power from this storm.FPL always said they are ready for this hurricane season and they "strengthened" power lines.Ha yeah right!
i remember they said the titanic was unsinkable and we know how that turned out
Tampa is under a severe t-storm watch. I'm just not sure where the storms will come from right now. The storms already out there will go well to our south.
Experiencing the calm before the
storm here on the mid-Pacific coast this morning. Andres is still at tropical storm level, slowly churning up the coast toward us. We're at approx. 19N/105W so watching very closely. Nerve-wracking, to say the least!
StormW, Thanks.
As usual, explanations create more questions.
With a stronger El Nino, shouldn't we see stronger Caribbean westerlies? Do we usually see a strong westerly wind in the Caribbean in June/July? Please explain what's happening over Florida according to the shear map below.
Good Morning All....Storm, Ike & 456 have us covered again this AM I see. Atlantic quiet out there right now cept for the three areas of interest but sheer continues to rule at the moment....Most interesting area, for me, is the apparent trof remnant near the Bahamas..Seems to have the classic "look" but under 20 knots of sheer. Driving tommorow morning from Apalachicola to Orlando for a conference and then on to Ft. Lauderdale for the weekend (with old buddies) for some beer, music, and much needed break...Hope I don't get too many showers on the way but I don't think I will escape the heat anyway you look at it....Bringing plenty of t-shirts and shorts for the trip. Have a great day/week and see Yall next week....WW
oh Please a 70mph TS at landfall sould be fun i take a 70mph overe a 170mph cat 5 at land fall any day
Quoting DeerfieldBeachGuy:
Good morning from Deerfield Beach. Was awakened by a lightning strike that must have only been yards away from my condo. Nasty area of thunderstorms just came thruough here---wind really picked up and the lightning could only be described as excessive.

Stay safe everyone!
I'm in Deerfield as well and those strikes were intense to say the least. Where are you in Deerfield Beach? I'm in The Cove area on the border of Lighthouse Point. Seems to be settling down now and ooks like a good window to get out of the house and head to work.
Quoting Chicklit:
StormW, Thanks.
As usual, explanations create more questions.
With a stronger El Nino, shouldn't we see stronger Caribbean westerlies? Do we usually see a strong westerly wind in the Caribbean in June/July? Please explain what's happening over Florida according to the shear map below.


whats going on overe FL right now is this your day time/AM t-storms
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Man this is awfully sad.The City of Lake Worth lost power from this storm.FPL always said they are ready for this hurricane season and they "strengthened" power lines.Ha yeah right!


If I remember correctly, Lake Worth built its own power grid many, many years ago, and it's a less efficient and weaker grid system than what is generally in use throughout the area.
Hi Taz...that's a healthy pattern for us. We love our afternoon thunderstorms here in Florida. It sure helps to cool things off. Thanks!
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Taz...that's a healthy pattern for us. We love our afternoon thunderstorms here in Florida. It sure helps to cool things off. Thanks!





your welcome
1653. NEwxguy
GM,all,our unwelcomed low up here in the northeast is still hanging around although starting to weaken,but its amazing how far south the circulation goes.
1655. Dakster
It is raining really hard in Miami-Dade right now... It is as dark as night out. Weather service says nickel size hail and gusts to 70mph are on its way to us...
You guys are great! Thanks. Have a great day.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Quoting lamanzanilla:
Experiencing the calm before the
storm here on the mid-Pacific coast this morning. Andres is still at tropical storm level, slowly churning up the coast toward us. We're at approx. 19N/105W so watching very closely. Nerve-wracking, to say the least!




1249 UTC TUE JUN 23 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES (EP022009) 20090623 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090623 1200 090624 0000 090624 1200 090625 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 104.0W 19.3N 104.6W 20.4N 105.3W 21.0N 106.4W

BAMD 17.8N 104.0W 18.8N 105.1W 19.5N 106.5W 20.2N 108.2W

BAMM 17.8N 104.0W 19.4N 105.1W 20.5N 106.4W 21.3N 108.1W

LBAR 17.8N 104.0W 19.3N 105.2W 20.8N 106.6W 22.1N 108.2W

SHIP 60KTS 62KTS 60KTS 56KTS

DSHP 60KTS 62KTS 60KTS 56KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090625 1200 090626 1200 090627 1200 090628 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 21.5N 107.6W 22.5N 109.8W 23.4N 112.1W 24.1N 115.4W

BAMD 21.0N 109.9W 22.9N 113.3W 25.0N 116.7W 27.8N 119.7W

BAMM 22.1N 110.1W 24.0N 113.7W 25.8N 117.4W 28.0N 121.1W

LBAR 23.2N 110.1W 25.6N 113.1W 28.4N 114.9W 30.4N 115.0W

SHIP 48KTS 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 48KTS 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 104.0W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 102.7W DIRM12 = 319DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 101.9W

WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT

CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1004MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM


ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM ANDRES 02E



INITIAL TIME 6Z JUN 23



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 17.2 103.3 320./ 6.0

6 18.2 104.2 317./12.9

12 19.5 105.5 317./17.3

18 21.4 106.1 342./20.4

24 22.3 106.9 316./11.2

30 22.6 107.5 301./ 6.1

36 24.3 108.6 325./19.8

42 25.9 109.9 321./20.0

48 25.9 110.1 281./ 1.8

54 25.9 110.1 162./ .9

60 26.7 110.8 320./10.9

66 26.9 110.9 344./ 2.2

72 27.4 111.2 322./ 5.5

78 27.3 111.3 212./ 1.3

84 27.8 111.8 312./ 6.8

90 28.0 112.0 332./ 2.3

96 28.3 112.3 313./ 4.1

102 28.9 112.8 320./ 7.3

108 28.9 112.8 27./ .4

114 29.0 112.7 60./ .7

120 28.9 112.7 225./ .3



STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN
although the sst's in the west pac and epac have warmed cosiderably hinting of a el nino the atmosphere in this region has not responded to the at possibility
1660. JRRP
strong winds from the Wave near antilles
i think we have El Nino

1662. NEwxguy
What I love about this blog is you ask a question and you get a ton of great answers and usually in terms us amateurs can understand.Good job to all of you.
i love you too
Recon is on their way to Andres Google Earth view
Quoting OnTheFlats:
I'm in Deerfield as well and those strikes were intense to say the least. Where are you in Deerfield Beach? I'm in The Cove area on the border of Lighthouse Point. Seems to be settling down now and ooks like a good window to get out of the house and head to work.


Im on the beach on A1A in Deerfield; that lightning associated with the line of storms that moved through around 8AM was the worst lightning I've seen down here in quite some time---talking 20-30 strikes a minute at one point

I wonder how unstable the atmosphere is here in south FL and if another round of storms will fire up later today with the daytime heating.
We got us an invest:



800 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...BRINGING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED...WITH A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
Nothing on navy site
its a AOI in the boc
no invest at this time
welcome back pat how was texas if i may ask
1676. Patrap
Texas was A fun 3 Days.

And twas good to get back and see the recovery continuing there.



Pocahontas
Hey Pat... Seems like your favorites list must have 1000's of links LOL. I appreciate all of the ones you throw out there for us.
I wonder if we will see recon decend through the BOC blob or just fly over.
1679. Patrap
Looks like "Link season" will be on the increase as per the Seasonal Up-tick in activity.

We turn towards the meat of the season soon.
Quoting hurricane2009:
The ssd floater has said Invest since yesterday afternoon, the ssd has done that before without an invest officially classified

No Invest has officially been classified for that area.


Arg, and they really had my hopes up, too.
Quoting Skyepony:
I wonder if we will see recon decend through the BOC blob or just fly over.


SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-025

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ANDRES
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0102E ANDRES
C. 23/1300Z
D. 18.4N 104.0W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-026

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ANDRES
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0202E ANDRES
C. 24/1245Z
D. 21.5N 107.8W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
look at f for anwser
I like to call them NOAA declared invests since NOAA is calling it an invest.

22/1745 UTC 21.1N 95.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
Quoting CaneWarning:
Tampa is under a severe t-storm watch. I'm just not sure where the storms will come from right now. The storms already out there will go well to our south.
They should start to develop right along 75 around 12pm
Keeper~ That's the altitute they are going to fly Andres. Right now they are approaching BOC blob & at ~27,500ft.
i know sky we will see what they do when they get there
1688. Patrap
Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
90.7 °F
Partly Cloudy


Heat Advisory
Heat Advisory

Statement as of 5:03 AM CDT on June 23, 2009





Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
821 am CDT Tuesday Jun 23 2009



The 500 mb high will continue to become centered farther west
Wednesday...but the ridge axis will continue to extend west into
portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast.
This will maintain the hot temperatures at the surface and warm
air in the middle levels. The only place that might see some isolated
late afternoon convection is near the seabreeze and lake breeze
boundaries south of Lake Pontchartrain and on the Mississippi
coast with some help from one or two weak disturbances rotating
around the upper high. Any thicker or higher coverage convective
clouds will be too late in the day to cut into the high
temperatures. Have extended the heat advisory through 7 PM
Wednesday.
there making a quick check on aoi maybe wave hello visit andres then drop by for one more look and see on the way back
Quoting Skyepony:
I wonder if we will see recon decend through the BOC blob or just fly over.


Takes more fuel to fly at lower altitudes then climb back up... They would probably have to fly one pass into Andres then fly back.

Hey at least we get some HDOB Upper Air data for the models.

They could drop a dropsonde too.
I think we'll see an invest in the BOC by this afternoon. It seems to at least marginably favorable for slow development.
1692. NRAamy
My Local Weather:
John Wayne-Orange County, California
64 °F
Overcast
I still can't figure out why Tampa is under a severe t-storm watch. There are no storms anywhere near us.
::sigh::

will Houston ever get some rain? ( I know, I know, I shouldn't ask...)
The University of Tampa, Tampa, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago
93.7 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 67%
Dew Point: 81 °F
Wind: 12.0 mphfrom the NNW
Wind Gust: 20.0 mph
Pressure: 29.72 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 115 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16

The heat index is already 115 and it isn't even 11 AM!

Quoting hurricane2009:


Well they were dead wrong last night about the watch they put up for east central florida. Guess we will see how it goes today.
? it was really bad here. ecent.florida it was well deserved alot cooler today 81 in the shade
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
::sigh::

will Houston ever get some rain? ( I know, I know, I shouldn't ask...)

Be careful what you ask for... Remember April.
Quoting CaneWarning:
I still can't figure out why Tampa is under a severe t-storm watch. There are no storms anywhere near us.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 495
Quoting hurricane2009:


Well they were dead wrong last night about the watch they put up for east central florida. Guess we will see how it goes today.
Really? cuz we had severe thunderstorms here last night between 9:30 and 12 midnight.
Not sure how severe weather can be well deserved unless you meant the rainfall and cloud cover.
Quoting CaneWarning:
I still can't figure out why Tampa is under a severe t-storm watch. There are no storms anywhere near us.


A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued when weather conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms, not nessarilly thunderstom presesnt. A watch must not be confused with a severe thunderstorm warning.
Quoting hurricane2009:


lol 95% of the counties that were under the Watch saw absolutely nothing from the time they issued it to the time it expired, I would say that is pretty off then.



All a severe thunderstorm watch does is indicate that conditions are right for storms to form. It does not indicate that a severe thunderstorm WILL form, nor does it indicate that your area will get rain.

Considering how much that we don't know about what causes a storm to be severe vs. just strong, I would think that a watch is warranted. Nothing weather-wise can be predicted with 100% certainty, and that includes severe thunderstorms.

Since you seem to be pretty perturbed by the lack of severe storms... may I ask what difference it makes whether the NWS called a severe thunderstorm watch or not, since a storm didn't impact you? Wouldn't you rather be advised to be wary, since conditions are ripe, or would you rather to suddenly have a warning issued when a storm does pop?
Quoting hurricane2009:


lol 95% of the counties that were under the Watch saw absolutely nothing from the time they issued it to the time it expired, I would say that is pretty off then.



I wasnt arguing the point, i was asking, Really? and then providing my own info. I dont know for sure what was forcast and i sure dont know for sure what occurred anywhere but here.
Quoting CaneWarning:
I still can't figure out why Tampa is under a severe t-storm watch. There are no storms anywhere near us.



uno memento!!!!,they'll start firing near I-75 to the north of the bay and move SSE between 25-40mph,as the line that forms moves slowly SW....give it a hour or 2 things w/be very active in our area,IMO(I'm down on siesta key)
heavy duty lightning some wind around 1030pm there seemed to be the potential for a waterspout or two on the lagoon. does that qualify? what seemed interesting was the brunt of the storm passed to the south yet they flashed there was a severe storm near titusville.
Quoting weathersp:


A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued when weather conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms, not nessarilly thunderstom presesnt. A watch must not be confused with a severe thunderstorm warning.


I know, but I do not see conditions being all that favorable at the moment.
well all I'm done lurking for today.. sorry not being chatty this year... just watching.

Have a good Tuesday!
To Txalwaysprepared:

Houston did get rain yesterday evening. A good steamy soaking downtown and points northwest. First good dousing in a month.
darn near 10 degrees cooler today than it was yesterday unusual for the summer without a storm
Well storms are starting to form. We'll see if they become severe.
Doesn't look like recon is going to decend in the BOC blob..but they have the SFMR on (which alotta times we don't see in route)..so we get surface winds during the flyby. Smaller dying blob bit on the NE side, 23.450N 95.150W ~ 31mph at the surface.
Quoting Timstorm:
To Txalwaysprepared:

Houston did get rain yesterday evening. A good steamy soaking downtown and points northwest. First good dousing in a month.


I'm in Clear Lake... not a drop
Quoting Timstorm:
To Txalwaysprepared:

Houston did get rain yesterday evening. A good steamy soaking downtown and points northwest. First good dousing in a month.

pics or it didn't happen.

The entire Houston area needs 3-4 days of a steady rain to break the drought. A single storm won't do it, since a lot of that runs off, and doesn't get absorbed.

That said.... I'm not expecting steady rain until October-ish.
Quoting CaneWarning:
Well storms are starting to form. We'll see if they become severe.

Quoting txalwaysprepared:


I'm in Clear Lake... not a drop


Thought you moved to Katy?
I'll take a severe storm if it cools us off. My luck, the power will go out and we'll still be hot!
1726. Ossqss
Perhaps related to the watch. Mornin

Quoting CaneWarning:
Well storms are starting to form. We'll see if they become severe.


I can't remember the last time we we're under a severe t-storm watch in these parts, it's got my attention. We get severe thunderstorms everyday?
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I can't remember the last time we we're under a severe t-storm watch in these parts, it's got my attention. We get severe thunderstorms everyday?



Yeah, they don't issue watches for Florida too often so its interesting to see.
1729. Ossqss
12Z

still alot of UL energy up the road for the FL area,as the area highlighted moves over the region,a severe thunderstorm watch is no doubt warranted for this afternoon:


Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "FERIA" {NANGKA}
Issued at 10:45 p.m., Tuesday, 23 June 2009

Tropical Storm "FERIA" has crossed Northern Samar and is now in the vicinity of Masbate.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) in the vicinity of Masbate

Coordinates: 12.5°N, 123.6°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 kph near the center and
Gustiness of up to 90 kph

Movement: West Northwest at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Wednesday evening:
90 kms West of Iba, Zambales
Thursday evening:
290 kms Northwest of Laoag City
Friday evening:
420 kms North Northwest of Basco, Batanes



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...BRINGING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED...WITH A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
There was a pretty pompt switch of winds fron ESE to WSW around 21.650N 96.617W at flight level (~27,000ft). They were a little variable for a few minutes after even saw a NW wind in there. Highest surface wind so far via SFMR 28 knots(~ 32.2 mph) just west of center of the last blow up at 21.450N 96.783W.
Send the blob to Baton Rouge as long as it is a rain soaker. We have only had 0.59 inches of rain this month. We need it.
the area in the BOC should be a invest,it has a defined surface circulation,IMO
Quoting stillwaiting:
still alot of UL energy up the road for the FL area,as the area highlighted moves over the region,a severe thunderstorm watch is no doubt warranted for this afternoon:


Just wondering where you found that particularimage. I'm out here on Bee Ridge Rd. 2 miles from I-75, due east of Siesta Key.
The XtremeTeam from XtremeHurricanes.com will not be hunting Andres.

Why? (besides the time crunch of getting down there...)

Would you bring $10K worth of equipment into Mexico these days? ;)
Quoting Fla55Native:


Just wondering where you found that particularimage. I'm out here on Bee Ridge Rd. 2 miles from I-75, due east of Siesta Key.

Link to that image Link
132 Hrs time


Look whats coming off the coast of Africa
Quoting AussieStorm:

Link to that image Link


Thanks. Nice loop.
1742. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting hurricane2009:


If they declared every defined surface circulation there would be over 200 invests every season, convection is very disorganized and has shown no signs of it getting better organized. Also due to the fact it wont have much more time over water, it is kind of pointless.

Look at this. Link
Quoting CycloneOz:
The XtremeTeam from XtremeHurricanes.com will not be hunting Andres.

Why? (besides the time crunch of getting down there...)

Would you bring $10K worth of equipment into Mexico these days? ;)


Isnt the W coast of Mexico closer to you then florida anyway? Though can't say I blame you for the monetary (and safety) risk... not exactly stable down there.