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Durian: worst tropical cyclone of 2006

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:49 PM GMT on December 04, 2006

The death toll in the Philippine Islands from Typhoon Durian (called Typhoon Reming in the Philippines) now stands at 1226 dead or missing, according to Philippine disaster officials, and is certain to go higher as rescue workers continue to recover bodies from mudslides that buried at least eight villages at the foot of Mayon Volcano. Durian is now the third most deadly tropical cyclone to strike the Philippines since 1946, according to a list maintained at typhoon2000.ph. The worst storm, Tropical Storm Thelma, killed 5,100-8,000 people in 1991 when torrential rains caused flash floods on over-logged hills surrounding Ormoc City in Leyte. A river flowing through the city burst its banks, and drowned over 1/4 of the residents. The second most deadly was Typhoon Ike of September 1, 1984, which killed 1300-3000 due to flooding and mudslides from torrential rains. Like Durian, Ike was a 145-mph Category 4 typhoon at landfall, but Thelma never even made it to typhoon status. The Philippines have also suffered calamitous mudslides and flooding from heavy rains associated with La Nia events, as occurred in February 2006 when 3000 people died on Leyte Island. The worst flooding disaster ever to affect the Philippines that I could find record of was the typhoon of November 6, 1885, which killed 10,000 when a huge storm surge roared ashore on the Tiburon Peninsula. Durian has surpassed Tropical Storm Bilis as the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the globe in 2006. Bilis killed 662 people in July, primarily due to severe flooding in China.


Figure 1. Rainfall estimates from NASA's TRMM satellite on November 29, 2006, as Typhoon Durian approached the Philippines. Durian brought 8-12 inches of rain along its path.

The region Durian hit has been visited by at least one other typhoon of similar intensity. On November 25, 1987, Typhoon Nina hit the Mayon Volcano region as a category 5 super typhoon. A pressure of 909.5 mb was measured at Legaspi, the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Philippines. Mudslides and flash floods roaring down the Mayon Volcano killed 600-1100 people.

The damage caused by Durian has been extreme. Nearly 300,000 homes have been destroyed or damaged. Damage to agriculture has been exceptionally heavy, as well. Total damage estimates are at $643 million, making Durian by far the most costly typhoon in Philippine history. The previous most costly typhoons did damage in the $100-$200 million dollar range.

Durian sideswiped southern Vietnam Monday as a weak Category 1 typhoon, but its winds were strong enough to kill 49 people there, and damage or destroyed 58,000 homes. Durian is expected to become a rare ocean-to-ocean tropical cyclone when it crosses the Malay Peninsula Wednesday and enters the Indian Ocean in the Bay of Bengal. Dry air is expected to keep the storm below typhoon strength for the remainder of its life.

I'll update this blog Wednesday afternoon, when the new head of the National Hurricane Center will be announced.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The Power of the Storm Hit the Most Vulnerable.Thanks for keeping us up to date on things.
Thanks Buddy
Terrible news and those are some grim stats. Latest JMA forecast looks as if Durian could be a basin crosser and head into the Bay of Bengal.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.3mb/ 94.8kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.2 5.0 6.0

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

this storm dos not no when to stop
hmmmmmm that last post got lost
Ummm...just been looking at invest 93W on satellite. It's looking quite tasty and the colour IR image from Guam NWS is starting to show black colours! Will keep an eye on this. Link
Thanks for the update Dr Masters...

Here's an article on the preperations in Vietnam, looks like they have about 12000 unwilling to evacuate. There is also a CNN video linked in there to what happened in the Philippines...yet another not to play with little ones in the room.

Durian & Vietnam
The latest 3hr average estimate of rainfall rate is a little less in area than lastnight..

credit~ TRMM
The SST on the other side of Vietnam are higher.
As if that region needed another violent attack from Mother Nature. Godspeed to those over there. Maybe we should post an address or a phone number so some kind folks might care to donate to the relief effort.
I hope everybody in Vietnam is prepared, because Durian is NO tropical storm, regardless of what the JTWC and JMA say:

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 DEC 2006 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 10:18:12 N Lon : 108:25:10 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.4mb/ 94.8kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 4.8 5.2 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -33.8C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


If it looks like a duck...
Thankfully most of the typhoon is off-shore and it is not a 140 mph storm!
Meanwhile there is an interesting non-Tropical hurricane force wind event occuring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec along the Pacific coast of Mexio.
Reming-2:04pm

Reming-3:09pm

Reming-4:17pm

Notice how the structure infront of the camera is totally demolished after 3 hours of very strong winds
Durian is just bumping along.....numbers are down again:


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 972.3mb/ 87.4kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.7 4.4 4.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.3mb

Center Temp : -63.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


MIMIC was worth a watch..Strengthened, started to make landfall, weakened & jogged south all in one & is now going SW parellel to the land gaining strength. I wouldn't be suprised if Durian never made offical landfall on Vietnam.
Bingo.....I was just thinking if there would be an official landfall!
Hi all,

Just wondering.... what are the chances of Durian making it across Thailand and into the Indian ocean? If it does, it could strengthen again looking at the SST.

Cheers
Here's a youtube slide show of damage around Bicol. Incrediable pics. It's set to some rap with somewhat explisit lyrics (is that Snoop?), so some may want to turn off the volume before clicking the link.
Hey Randrewl..I went back to the last blog & stole your topo map...too handy not to have here.


My biggest uncertainty about not having a land fall it the flat pointy tip on the south end of Vietnam...that area may or maynot get run over. That little river delta, kinda narrow area of land, over to warmer waters.
Yea Sky that was Snoop Dawg.
lol
Great Skye...thanks for dragging that map back! I was just wishing I had it here! You're reading my mind today!
Looks like a Thailand hit. Here's a live Cam page on Ko Samui! Looks like it will be in the path.
I know how you like web-cams...LOL
we now have Typhoon Durian with 65 knots the navy site this update back to Typhoon Durian
Taz...did you stretch the blog?
nop the blog is find
Explorer is all stretched Taz.
LOL Randrewl, sweet, so sunrise in ~3hrs.

Thanks Mr Perfect.
hmm if the storm re-develops in the Bay of Bengal does it get a new name.. can't remember I know some basins don't keep the original assigned names.
Pretty cool live stream cams Skye! Watch the sun rise in Thailand!
Afternoon Rand
How are you Crab?
Since it's a little island, if we do see the sunrise we know the camera is pointing east. With the lights in the distance, I guess we're looking over water to the N or SW. But that's a guess in the dark.

Can't find the names by basin chart...lost in favorites.
Getting ready for a very cool evening.lol
Guys...afternoon.
How cold tonight Crab?
Hey Pat.
Pressed my long johns..borrowing 2 more dogs.looks like a 3 dog night here too.
Grab an extra cat too!
Mid 20s south of I-10 possible teens north
That cat pooped in my shower.Shes outside..LOL
Yeah...cold enough.
Protect the 3 Ps..Pipes..Pets..People
Ready to head further south but I cannot from here without a good boat.lol
4 Ps Pat people plants pets and pipes.lol
This morning got down to 36F here..with stiff N wind.Was COLD!
Who needs a cat - I have about 40. They all pile up outside the front door at night and insulate it really well. It's warm in the mornings.

Thailand - are you serious? I thought it died - nothing in the news or not much AGAIN. Thanks so much Skye and Rand for tracking this. Now to call some friends who have family there-I had no idea - where have I been.
We're looking at a brutal 60 tonight.
whoops that was 5.lol
I have another P but Ill refrain...LOL!
Sorry Saddle...Durian has as many lives as those darn cats!
Cant stand cat poop in da Shower..No sir.
These Filipinos took a BAD hit..I hope the Aid keeps a flowing
Ok folks just poped in to say hello back to work chat later
We don't let any of them but the little ones. We have "kitty run" every morning. They race in the door (4 of the little ones who KNOW who they are) and hit the kitchen floor....slide past the bowl-usually knocking it and the contents all over the place, grab a bite and run to a corner to eat and growl - you would think we NEVER feed them. I dread them growing up because it is so funny to watch them. Saddlett hollers "KITTY RUN!" and opens the door and in they run. Boy...if you haven't put something on the floor for them to eat, they get hostile.

So, how many people in the expected "strike zone". Thailand is so overpopulated. Those are hard working people.
Alright Crab...see ya later.
Cat slide..they always overrun on floors..LOL
Too soon to know exactly where it will end up Saddle. Looks like central Thailand. I'll get you a city.
this is not DEC weather her in the foothills of ca where all most 70 for a high today right now 65 for Sonora, California
The Typhoon still a force to be dealt with.Its been a Nasty strong cored ..stacked punch still bent on more .
Yeah Pat...if it blows up again...could be trouble for Thailand.
Typhoons are just relentless sometimes in longevity.This one setting records..bad ones.
Here you are Saddle.






Thai Meteorological Department

Tropical Storm Durian
100 kph sustained winds

(note this is before the JMA upgraded Durian to a typhoon)
Image of the Day..USALink
On this track the webcam link I posted earlier will come in handy. Should cross just under the island of Ko Samui.
Durian in Full visible over the PhillipinesLink
Great shot Pat.
Gotta run off....catch you later gang.
Durian is back up to Typhoon status, 75mph
Goodafternoon,

What an incredible disaster this has turned out to be....Speechless.Overall my prayers are with those folks and hope something of this magnitude will never occur again.
looks like a landfall southwest of Ho Chi Minh
Winds indeed have been bumped up to 65kts...
Thailand tropical storm landfall as well.

and Tropical Cyclone Akash???
Here are some models for now once again typhoon durian.
I had no idea. My world, as usual, is limited by what goes on here - a hurricane hits and it is gone. That thing just won't give up. Too scary.
Red Cross, DSWD appeal for relief aid

First posted 04:24:30 (Mla time) 2006-12-05
Dona Pazzibugan Cynthia Balana
Inquirer



THE RED CROSS and the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) have sent out an urgent plea for water, food and medicine for survivors after officials acknowledged five days after Supertyphoon Reming (international codename: Durian) struck that it was difficult to retrieve all the bodies from the villages buried by mudflows from Mayon Volcano.

The victims urgently need ready-to-eat food and canned goods, water purifiers and containers, mosquito nets, cooking utensils, flashlights, clothing, beddings, generator sets, flashlights, mats, blankets and gas stoves, according to Social Welfare Secretary Esperanza Cabral.

Several countries, including Japan, the United States, Indonesia and Malaysia, have heeded the appeal, sending emergency supplies and equipment.

Two Indonesian Air Force Hercules transport aircraft left earlier yesterday for the Philippines, carrying 25 tons of aid, including food, medicine, clothes and cooking oil.

I hope the JTYI one doesn't come true.... That track would bring it to Bangladesh. Durian had created enough of a disaster, we don't need another disaster in the world
Hi 23.
watch out for Oddbutnice this saw him in ryang blog watch out for Oddbutnice

ban Oddbutnice from your blogs and WU e mail
hmm see the forecast can stay a tropical depression before it gets near India and Bangladesh.
Taz - that's good advice.
saddlegait thanks
Hello Y'all!
It looks like Durian has developed a new core as he paralells the coast of Vietnam.

New JTWC forcast map is up.



Link
Why does this blog always get ghostly quiet when I get here?

: \
93W looking good
lol

for 93W this would be round 5 but whats hop not whats hop it stays out to sea!

lol
Round five. First Xangsane, then Cimaron, followed by Chebi, and most recently Durian. Another Tropical cyclone would be the fifth in the past two months or so.
lol did Nadi finally give up on Tropical Depression 5, (TC 04P)
Typhoon Chanchu track



lol

Tropical Storm Jelawat

lol

Typhoon Prapiroon

lol

Typhoon Xangsane

lol

Typhoon Cimaron

lol

Typhoon Chebi

lol

Good point Taz.
ok this would be round 7 not 5 they dont need any more hurricane
look like its takeing the same track as Typhoon Cimaron did but a little more S
Durian was round 7. If this next disturbance develops, it would be the 8th one for the Phillipines in 2006. They definately don't need any more.
Brisbane, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Outlook

A weak low occurs near Solomon Islands is expected to drift west and develop
over the next few days.

TD 05F still having life, or a new tropical disturbance.
Exactly how many storms affected the Philippines this year? This article (and many others) say that an average of 20 storms hit every year.
About 20 typhoons and tropical storms hit the Philippines each year.

That is from the article that Micheal STL posted.
Several other Typhoons have affected the Phillipines this year, but an average of 20 tropical cyclone landfalls a year seems irrational.
Reming is what the 18th name?
93W looking good this make it go out to sea
I can't imagine getting 20 storms a year although most of them are probably weak and pretty much a part of daily life (PAGASA often names tropical disturbances as depressions before anybody else even notices them; quite a few such storms this year were never officially recognized).
this would be the 25th name storm
I count 12 so far that have come close enough to affect the Phillipines in any way this year.
Wikipedia says pretty much the same thing:

The country also lies within the typhoon belt of the Western Pacific and about 19 typhoons strike per year.
lets see the list

Caloy, Domeng, Ester, Henry, Milenyo, Ompong, Paeng, Queenie, and Reming hit Philippines this year.
The last three years must have been below average then.
why cant i have typhoon her in ca
Come again?
lol ya 18 storm names been used by the Philippines out of 35 names for the year.

35 names on a list a year, wow
how come i can not have typhoon or what evere they call them her in CA


i want them to send them to CA then the Philippines
Ompong was a depression
Henry a tropical storm
other others were typhoons
The average number of storms in the West Pacific is as follows (according to the JTWC):

26.7 tropical storms
16.9 typhoons
8.5 Cat 3+

This year has seen (including unofficial storms since the above averages are according to the JTWC, which recognized two more storms and one typhoon that the JMA didn't):

23 tropical storms
15 typhoons
10 Cat 3+

Hmmm... below average for the first two and above average for the number of Cat 3+ storms.
GUINOBATAN, Philippines (AP) -- Officials and rescuers all but gave up hope Monday of finding survivors in mudslide-swamped villages on the slopes of the Mayon volcano, five days after a typhoon killed an estimated 1,000 people.

Official figures showed 450 dead, 507 injured and 599 missing, but Sen. Richard Gordon, head of the local Red Cross, said he believed more than 1,000 died in the thousands of homes that were buried under 1 1/2 meters (5 feet) of volcanic debris, mud and flood waters.

"At this time, no more. I'm sorry," Juan Garcia, mayor of devastated Guinobatan town, said when asked about prospects of survivors being found. "It's almost impossible. They have been buried under sand and boulders. I don't think they can survive. It's impossible for anyone to survive."

He said 186 bodies have been recovered and more than 300 were still missing in his village alone. Retrieval of bodies will continue. (Watch as relatives hunt for victims)

As the extent of the disaster became clear, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo on Sunday declared a state of national calamity, allowing the government to more rapidly release funds needed to bolster aid efforts.

"We are no strangers to this kind of tragedy, and we have always been able to recover and become stronger," she said in a statement Monday.

Arroyo said she instructed the Department of Environment to step up a project to map all hazardous areas, like Mayon, to help forewarn communities of possible dangers.

"We must not leave things to fatal luck when we can develop the tools to prevent harm," she said.

Fernando Gonzalez, governor of worst-hit Albay province, said the ground was too slippery for backhoes.

"There's no choice but to dig by hand," he told Radio DZBB. "Practically speaking, we are not very optimistic we'll find survivors."

Witnesses said the five-hour downpour Thursday, brought by Typhoon Durian packing winds gusting up to 265 kph (165 mph), dislodged tons of volcanic debris from Mayon's slopes. Walls of mud and boulders destroyed nearly every standing structure in their path.

"It was like bowling," said Guinobatan Vice Mayor Gene Villareal.

Many bodies, mangled, unidentified and decomposing in the tropical heat, were quickly buried in mass graves.

Wangyu Abiera, leader of a search-and-rescue team, said volcanic rocks and sand buried houses in Albay province so compactly that air could not enter and breathing would be impossible.

All but two dozen of the deaths occurred in Albay. Four other provinces reported fatalities.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque warned residents, who depend on deep wells for drinking water, to boil it to prevent cholera and diarrhea. No outbreaks have been reported so far.

oops Ester did not make landfall, I thought Ewiniar (Ester) did..
Because the Pacific High always blocks hurricanes from moving north out of the Tropical E. Pac. Also, even if for some reason the Pacific High weakens considerably, the cold waters of the California Current would kill any storm that was dumb enough to move north. Unless it was a storm like Epselon or 91C, but those types of storms don't form in the Tropical E. Pac.
LOL... California can't get typhoons, maybe, just maybe a hurricane from the East Pacific (definately tropical storms, depressions and the remnants of storms; no hurricane has ever made landfall, although one did bring hurricane force winds).
Why would you want a hurricane to hit California? And it wouldn't be called a typhoon. if a typhoon crossed the Date Line, it would be called a hurricane.
...although one did bring hurricane force winds).

This one
Only a few typhoons have ever crossed the dateline, and none of them crossed into the East Pacific. I think the last was Hurricane John (1994), which originated in the East Pacific and recurved after entering the West Pacific.
John Crossed the dateline multiple times. From Wikipedia.

Over the course of its existence, it followed an 8,000 mile (13,000 km) path from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and back to the central Pacific, lasting 31 days in total.[1]

Ioke crossed the dateline into the W. Pac. earler this year.
Clearing Johnston Atoll, John turned to the northwest and began strengthening again as shear decreased. On August 27 local time, John reached a secondary peak strength of 135 miles per hour (210 km/h), and shortly thereafter it crossed the International Date Line at approximately 22 N and came under the surveillance of the Guam branch of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). By crossing into the western Pacific, John also became a typhoon and was referred to as Typhoon John during its time in the western Pacific.[3] Immediately after crossing the Date Line, John again weakened and its forward motion stalled. By September 1, John had weakened to a tropical storm and was nearly motionless just west of the Date Line. There, John lingered for six days while performing a multi-day counterclockwise loop. On September 7, a trough moved into the area and quickly moved John to the northeast. John crossed the Date Line again on September 8 and reentered the central Pacific.[3]
John wasn't the only one!

Additionally, John was only the third tropical cyclone to enter the central Pacific from the western Pacific. Tropical Storms Carmen and Skip in 1980 and 1985, respectively, had done so previously.[3]

Gotta go! See y'all later.
Good afternoon everyone!

I see Durian is still lurking out there, no suprise! I don't think Durian will make it all the way to the Indian Ocean. Because the area Durian is heading for isn't known for being a "happy" place for Typhoons. Durian seems to speed up later in the forcast anyway.

I can't find any places on the Net with information on the shear, upper level environment in Durian's area, so if anybody knows something about that, information would be greatly appreciated!
Wishcaster, CIMSS has information on every ocean basin, including the West Pacifc (listed on the left side). Here is the shear/shear tendency:



Currently around 10 kts where Durian is and it has fallen by 5-10 kts; maybe one of the reasons for its regeneration.
Tahnks a lot STL and 1900!
I mean "thanks!". Damn dyslexia!
Could dry air in the Bay of Bengal kill it?
I can't really say (unenhanced image; SSD does not cover the Indian Ocean), but it looks like there is dry air over the northern part of the Bay of Bengal:

Cyclonebuster,

No, in most cases storms weaken as they come in close proximity with land becasue of friction. Also in the Gulf of Mexico most the deep warm waters come from eddys's that brake of in the central gulf.
So would it be appropriate to call this a wait and see situation STL?
Michael - what do you make of that blob near the tip on India?
You are right about the central Gulf having most of the deep warm water, although storms can still bomb out at landfall or continue to strengthen as they approach landfall, like Camille. In any case, the last couple years have shown that winds are of secondary importance (storm surge and rain are by far the deadliest effects of a storm; Cimaron was a Category 5 at landfall but was only a fraction as destructive/deadly as Durian). The deep warm Gulf water is not good because it can produce a very large/powerful storm, and it can still be very destructive and deadly at landfall even after weakening (Katrina).
The only storm I can think of that had an interesting shelf life would be Typhoon Gay. But even Gay formed not so far from the Indian Ocean. I really find it unlikey by history that Durian will have much more legacy than what it already has.
The blob below India is 94B:



Most invests around India fail to develop (an average of 5 storms develop a year, there have been 6 this year); no models develop a storm there.
Very true STL and I agree! But most storms don't bomb right before landfall and if they do conditions have to be perfect. I agree though that they can still be catastrophic.

The middle note was for you CB!
Right; that is what this says, with emphasis on the latter since it is more serious:

Necessary conditions
In order for rapid deepening to occur, several conditions must be in place. Water temperatures must be extremely warm (near or above 30C, 86F), and water of this temperature must be sufficiently deep such that waves do not churn deeper cooler waters up to the surface. Wind shear must be low; when wind shear is high, the convection and circulation in the cyclone will be disrupted. Usually, an anticyclone in the upper layers of the troposphere above the storm must be present as well for extremely low surface pressures to develop, air must be rising very rapidly in the eyewall of the storm, and an upper-level anticyclone helps channel this air away from the cyclone efficiently.[

Explosive intensification
Explosive intensification is a more extreme case of rapid deepening that involves a tropical cyclone deepening at a rate of at least 2.5 mbar per hour for a minimum of 12 hours. Explosive intensification may occur only if conditions are near perfect, and therefore is rarely observed in the Western hemisphere. However, explosive intensification occurs regularly in the West Pacific basin. The area that experiences the most of this dangerous event is the coast of Australia; water temperatures there regularly attain 30+ degrees C during mid-season
Sun is up on the cam Randrewl left us...NE view, perhaps looking at where the island curves out on the E side?

I was looking for some more TRMM stuff on Durian, but ran across where they released the final on the Panama Flooding from the last Atlantic invest we were watching.

TRMM

The deep red is 320+mm of rain, which equals over 12.5".
I've often wondered why the Indian Ocean is so inactive. Could it be the fact that the Pacific Ocean is warmer than the Indian Ocan on the other side?
You can see how that might casue an El Nino effect on the Indian Ocean, by raising shear.
El Nino cools down the Indian Ocean as warm water moves to the east; the occurrence of significant cooling has even been linked to very strong El Ninos, as these researchers note.
Waves for Durian look to be only around 12'.
The area that experiences the most of this dangerous event is the coast of Australia; water temperatures there regularly attain 30+ degrees C during mid-season

I didn't see that one coming.
El Nino also inhibits convection over the Indian Ocean (red indicates supressed convection and blue enhanced convection):

Aren't the Pacific Ocean waters east of Thailand consistently warmer than the Indian Ocean waters west of Thailand?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 300 PM PST MON DEC 4 2006

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AFTER NEXT TUESDAY. 12Z EURO HAS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OVER CA THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES BRING A FOURTH SYSTEM INTO AT LEAST NORCAL BY LATE WED INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE NO REAL GOOD INDICATORS FROM LOOKING AT TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC OR CONVECTION OVER THE EL NINO REGION AS TO SUGGEST HOW THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION NEXT WEEK. IF ONE LOOKS AT THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIAS TOWARD KEEPING A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID DECEMBER IF NOT LATE DECEMBER. CURRENT GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE MODERATE EL NINO WE ARE IN WILL NOT REALLY START INFLUENCING THE STORM TRACK UNTIL LATE WINTER...LATE JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY. SO WITHOUT ANY OTHER TYPE OF FORCING...LIKE THE MJO WHICH IS VERY WEAK NOW...THIS SCENARIO IS AS GOOD AS ANY UNTIL WE CAN BEGIN TO SEE MUCH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE EL NINO 3.4 REGION.

well there gos my winter for ca this year oh well i wait for the next
Always have hope Taz! In the meantime i'll wait for that blizzard i've always wanted here in the Northwest!
No winter? Here is my forecast:

Tonight
Mostly clear. Patchy freezing fog late in the night. Low around 16. West wind around 10 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny. Patchy freezing fog early in the morning. High around 40. South wind around 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Not as cold. Partly cloudy. Low in the mid 20s. Southwest wind around 10 mph.
Wednesday
Partly sunny. High in the upper 30s. West wind 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night
Colder. Partly cloudy. Low around 14. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday
Colder. Partly cloudy. Chance of flurries. High in the mid 20s.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Low around 13.
Friday and Friday Night
Mostly clear. High in the lower 30s. Low in the lower 20s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. High around 40.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Low in the upper 20s.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy. High in the mid 40s.
Sunday Night and Monday
Partly cloudy. Low around 30. High in the mid 40s.

If it snows on Thursday, I hope that it stays cold enough aloft so that another ice storm does not occur (250,000 still don't have power after 4 days and 19 deaths have been reported from the ice storm last week).
UNTIL LATE WINTER...LATE JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY


in tell thenthere is not going to be march snow in the mts so no Skiing this year in are mts i this move to co
thats right STL no winter for me this year
Where did you get that info Taz? I would like to check the long term foecast for the Pacific Northwest.
He got it from the San Franscisco NWS forecast discussion; you can see your own forecast discussion by looking you your forecast on Wunderground and looking below the forecast for "Scientific forecaster discussion (NWS)".
wishboy

i got it from her

the 1st one you see is the

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION for SAN FRANCISCO CA

thats where i got it from

Link



winter is gone for me
Thanks dudes!
For example, here is the one for my area (Wunderground also converts them to lowercase and converts abbreviations to words to make it easier to read):

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
614 PM CST Monday Dec 4 2006

Discussion...
surface ridge of high pressure extended from the New England states
across the Ohio Valley into the Southern Plains this afternoon.
Southwesterly winds around this high was bringing not as cold air
across the region. Temperatures were struggling to near 40 across portions
of the area over the snow/ice covered ground. With light wind
forecast across much of the area tonight, temperatures will again be a
challenge. Went below the guidance for tonight.

With southwesterly winds again on Tuesday, temperatures will rise above
freezing to give US a little more thawing. Conditions will be hard
on roadways as we go through several days of thawing during the day
and then drop below freezing at night.

The models are fairly similar in the handling of an Alberta clipper
that will sweep across the Great Lakes states Tuesday and Wednesday.
A sharp 500 mb trough is forecast to dig down out of Canada on Wednesday
and into the area by early Thursday. A massive surface high right
off the icefields parkway of Alberta will slide into the Midwest on
Thursday. The UKMET and European models are forecasting a pressure
close to 1048 mbs across the Central Plains at that time. The GFS
and NAM are about 10 mbs lower with the pressure.

The surface high will slide off to the southeast late in the week.
Upper ridge will build across the Midwest over the weekend with
moderating temperatures again. The GFS and European are fairly similar next
Monday at 500 mb with closed low over the Desert Southwest.
Long term...medium range models showing some similarity in
transitioning the weather pattern from our current split-flow
pattern to a progressive westerly flow pattern by the end of the
week. The extended forecast begins with a bit of a ridge over the
forecast area and a trough offshore. Models slowly lift the southern
low north over western Washington Friday night/Sat bringing with it a
strong westerly flow. This is the transition in the weather
pattern...with the remainder of the extended forecast period under
the influence of a wet progressive pattern. Several systems are
embedded in this flow and will move over US through the beginning of
next week...however the timing of each individual system is still in
question...so will go with a wet broad brushed forecast. Likens

I still have hope for snow! We have the whole rest of winter to get a snow storm. (he crosses his fingers)



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HEY EVERYBODY HOW ARE ALL YA DOING?????? WELL PRETTY INTERESTING TO NOTE EL NINO KIND OF LOOKS LIKE ITS ON THE WAY!!!!!!I JUST READ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DISCUSSION FOR TAMPA NEXT WEEK AND IT READS: ALTHOUGH IT IS
SOMEWHAT EARLY TO EMBRACE THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
TUESDAY...BOTH DGEX AND GFS AGREE IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH MAY BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.
Anybody who has Google Earth sould check this link out! Link
I'm doing great 88!
More El Nino evidence (and for Taz, who wants to move to Colorado... LOL):

Colorado's late fall snowstorms could disappear by mid-December due to the influence of an El Nio event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, said Klaus Wolter, a University of Colorado at Boulder and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist.

Sometime in December I would expect to see the classic El Nio winter doldrums where the storm track shifts so far south that we might run dry for a very long stretch, maybe several weeks where nothing happens, said Wolter.

According to Wolter, the current El Nio is showing signs of strengthening. El Nio events occur when temperatures on the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific are warmer than normal for several months.

The wetter-than-normal weather Colorado experienced in October was typical of a moderate to strong El Nio event, he said.
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WOW I WAS JUST IN A WEBSITE THAT SHOWS ME PAST RADAR PICS AND I WAS SEEING GRAPHICS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND FEBRUARY AND MARCH OF 1998 (EL NINO YEAR)AND EVERY WEEK OR SO A VERY STRONG SQUALL LINE OR VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVER FLORIDA!
Winds with durian are down to 55kts and futher weaking is probable.
Hey Taz, check this out. It says that we wont see significant precip until late January.

Check out this extended, has rain al the way through monday after this wednesay. Snow for Sierra. It says snow levels will start out very low due to all the cold air in place now.

EXTENDED...MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL FALL OVER MOST
IF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY EXTENDING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAD BEEN DIGGING THE UPPER
TROUGH SOUTH INTO SOCAL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT LATEST GFS HAS
MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH WHICH MAY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM
MONTEREY NORTH. THIS IS JUST THE OPPOSITE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. 12Z EURO HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH FOR FRIDAY AM OFFSHORE
BUT APPEARS TO FILL IT AND MOVE IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT RAINFALL BUT MOSTLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM AS IT WILL BE FIGHTING THE RIDGE AND VERY DRY LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF BREAK FOR SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A
SECOND AND STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. 12Z EURO DOES WANT TO BEGIN CLOSING THIS TROUGH OFF OVER
EXTREME SO CAL/ARIZONA BY MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO TRY TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES IN THIS WAY MONDAY WILL BE
A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH A THIRD SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
Greetings all. Good analysis, nice graphics, no quarrelsom behaviour,a great big moon through gentle cirro nimbus outside, Chopins Nocturns on the player, what a great blog......
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 974.3mb/ 84.8kt

Durian appears to have made landfall on the river delta area on the east side of the little south tip...MIMIC
cyclonebuster what occured with andrew was a rare occurence as it actually intensified as it moved ashore in florida city.
........and it looks like the rainy season is over. A high of 79 today down from 85 a few days ago. Winter is coming to Trinidad !!!!!!
Here's a visible shot of andrew moving threw south florida from my photo album.


Trouper415 wow cool rain then dry in tell jan
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HAS ANYONE ELSE NOTICE EL NINO EVENTS LATELY?????
El Nino events? Maybe the massive ice storm I got last week (said to be the worst ever in my area, with 2-3 inches of freezing rain and a million people loosing power; I was spared though, unlike the last time in July). Hundreds of thousands still don't have power and nearly 20 people have been reported dead due to the storm. The 1998 ice storm in Canada was linked to El Nino, so this one may also be related to El Nino.
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NO JUST ASKING BECAUSE AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO WINTER WE MIGHT SEE THE BRUNT OF IT!!!!
882MB turn off yr caps, yer shouting man...........
Here is a piece from the preliminary report on andrew.


Andrew weakened when it passed over the western portion of the Great Bahama Bank and the pressure rose to 941 mb. However, the hurricane rapidly reintensified during the last few hours preceding landfall when it moved over the Straits of Florida. During that period, radar, aircraft and satellite data showed a decreasing eye diameter and strengthening "eyewall" convection. Aircraft and inland surface data suggest that the deepening trend continued up to and slightly inland of the coast. For example, the eye temperature measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was at least 1-2C warmer at 1010 UTC (an hour after the eye made landfall) than it was in the last "fix" about 15 n mi offshore at 0804 UTC. These measurements suggest that the convection in the eyewall, and the associated vertical circulation in the eye and eyewall, became more vigorous as the storm moved onshore. The radar data indicated that the convection in the northern eyewall became enhanced with some strong convective elements rotating around the eyewall in a counter-clockwise fashion as the storm made landfall. Numerical models suggest that some enhancement of convection can occur at landfall due to increased boundary-layer convergence in the eyewall region. That situation appeared to have occurred in Andrew. The enhanced convection in the north eyewall probably resulted in strong subsidence in the eye on the inside edge of the north eyewall.

you can find more surface wind analysis at the HRD website.CLICK HERE
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I LIKE WRITING WITH CAPS ON!!!!!!!!!
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 974.3mb/ 84.8kt

Durian appears to have made landfall on the river delta area ...


Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal.
882, thats fine man, but have a little pity here............
For more tropical links visit Adrian's Weather
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OK POTTERY!!!!!!!
... the eye temperature measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was at least 1-2C warmer at 1010 UTC (an hour after the eye made landfall) ...

seems to indicate they were flying reconnaissance over land. I thought they didn't do that. Is that a mistaken idea?
Potter! Are you still alive out there?
Numerical models suggest that some enhancement of convection can occur at landfall due to increased boundary-layer convergence in the eyewall region.

Great info! Thanks bunches Adrian!
This explains it in overwhelming detail!

The initiation of deep convection through forcing along boundary layer convergence lines is examined using observations from the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment conducted in east-central Florida during the summer of 1991. The study is concerned with the evolution and interaction of two converging air masses that were initially separated by an intervening boundary layer characterized by neutral stability and horizontal convective rolls. As anticipated, major thunderstorms erupt when the east coast breeze eventually collides with thunderstorm outflows from the west, but unexpected convection takes place prior to their merger along a well-defined confluence zone associated with a persistent quasi-stationary roll vortex signature. Analyses using wavelet transforms confirm that linear boundary layer reflectivity features are strongly correlated with radial convergence associated with roll vortices. In this study, complementary interactions between roll vortex convergence lines and the sea-breeze front are not sufficient to trigger deep convection. However, organized convergence along the eastward-spreading thunderstorm outflows did interact periodically with roll vortex convergence maxima to initiate a series of new storms. Results from two-dimensional numerical model simulations replicate many of the observed boundary layer features. Surface heating produces circulations similar to sea-breeze frontal zones that appear near the coastlines and progress steadily toward each other as the interior boundary layer deepens. Vertical velocity maxima develop over the associated convergence zones, but weaker periodic maxima also occur within the interior air mass at intervals similar to the spacing of observed horizontal roll vortices. As the boundary layer deepens, a layer immediately above it cools, confirming organized large-scale ascent within the interior air mass. When surface heating is removed, circulation associated with this large-scale ascent collapses to a near-steady state where the width of the remaining prominent updraft is similar to its depth. This results from a balance between momentum advected by large-scale circulations and excess pressure developed at low levels near the center of the interior domain
How very sad. Those poor people!
They don't mention hurricanes, but they do get into how the cycle works with thunderstorms.
Oh no....I've just seen the latest ECMWF run for the Wpac. This model has been outstanding at picking up TCs this year and it wants to develop disturbance 93W. Obviously there is huge uncertainty at the moment but they are going for a strong TC hitting the central Philippines in about a week.
I wouldn't be surprised. After a few hits you just stop doubting the models.
Where is everybody tonight?
Oh no....I've just seen the latest ECMWF run for the Wpac. This model has been outstanding at picking up TCs this year and it wants to develop disturbance 93W.

Others, too:

CMC:


GFS:
They just expanded Durian's forecasted life span. I'm still not budging on the prediction I made that Durian won't cause anymore severe damage.

That doesn't look so bad STL.
Watch out... Durian looked just like that before it developed; models are bad at resolving tropical cyclones because of their awful resolution and small size of most tropical cyclones (the GFDL is better, but still far from perfect and only if the storm in in the high resolution fine mesh grid). For example, Katrina:

A lesson well learned.
Hurricane Andrew:

For all we know 93W could just fizzle. That's what I want to happen anyway!
The reason why models are bad at resolving tropical cyclones is because their resolution is so low that they completly miss the core of the storm, which is usually 50 miles wide or less (eye and eyewall, where the highest winds and lowest pressure occur). By comparison, 1 degree is about 70 miles (Wilma's eye was only 2 miles wide at peak intensity and hurricane force winds were only 30 miles across). Because of this, a very large storm with a large eye (Katrina) will be picked up better than a small storm with a small eye (Andrew), even if the large storm is weaker, in both SLP maps and the graphs I posted (for the same reason, extratropical storms look so much more impressive in models than tropical storms).
Why do they usually miss the core?
Besides the fact that they're small.
At the top of the diagrams I posted, it shows the model resolution, which is 1 degree for the CMC and 1/2 degree for the GFS; this is far too course for correctly resolving tropical cyclones (they can pick up the general size of the storm, which extends for a couple hundred miles or so). By comparison, the GFDL can resolve much smaller features, which is why it can correctly display the minimum pressure and highest winds. Most tropical cyclones look like the thing you see to the west of California here:



That could easily be a major hurricane if it were tropical (it is actually a farily weak extratropical low; compare to the giant low to the north). Basically, what happens when a storm is analysed by a model, it takes the average pressure over a 30-70 mile wide area and takes this to make a crude reconstruction, doing this several times over the area covered by the storm. Since the lowest pressure occurs in the eye and the pressure gradient in the eyewall is so tight, the region of lowest pressure is very small; it might be 920 mb at the very center of the eye and 990 mb 20 miles out; the model would average this out to say, 985 mb. Think of taking photos with a digital camera; the more pixels, the higher the resolution and anything too small will not be displayed correctly.
That's a scary though that hurricanes can be that hard too forecast in strength.
Here is another example; imagine that the left image was taken by a very low resolution satellite (say it is like the GFS) and the right by a very high resolution satellite (like the GFDL):



The one on the right is much clearer than the one of the left; this is why special models like the GFDL have been made for tropical cyclone forecasting. If global models had the same resolution, it would take a prohibitive amount of time to run them; they already need around 6 hours to run, so by the time you get, for example, the 12z run of a model, it is closer to 18z (this means that the 6 hour forecast is actually a forecast for the time the model finishes). As supercomputers get faster, the resolution can be increased (this is harder than you think, as the amount of processing increases exponentially; if you double the resolution, you increase processing time by a factor of 8 (2 x for latitude, 2 x for longitude and 2 x for atmospheric layers)
That does sound like a pain in the @$$.
Tropical storm Durian kills at least 12 in Vietnam

28 minutes ago



HANOI (AFP) - At least 12 people were killed when severe tropical storm Durian hit southern Vietnam, destroying boats and houses after leaving more than 1,000 dead or missing in the Philippines.

Ten people died in Ba Ria Vung Tau province, which has tourist resorts and oil rigs in the South China Sea, said Nguyen Ngoc Loc, an official of the provincial flood and storm control committee.

Two people were missing and 15 had been injured in the province, where power remained off and thousands of houses had been damaged, Loc told AFP.

Two more people were killed on Phu Quy island, 250 kilometres (150 miles) east of Ho Chi Minh City when the storm hit overnight, said Ta Thi Niem of the Binh Thuan provincial storm and flood control committee.

"Phu Quy island was hit overnight and, according to initial reports, two people died because of the storm," she said. "Communication with the island is cut off. The island is isolated now."

Nguyen Viet Thang, the deputy fisheries minister, told VTV that "the island suffered serious losses" and said over 800 moored boats sank, some 1,100 buildings lost their roofs and 90 percent of power poles were toppled.

Vietnam had evacuated tens of thousands of people in south-central coastal areas by Monday evening but the typhoon hit further south than expected and was Tuesday morning pummeling the Mekong delta south of the former Saigon.

"The storm has been here since 7:00 am (0000 GMT) and thousands of houses have been damaged," said Nguyen Thanh Hong, chairman of the Ba Tri district people's committee of the Mekong delta province of Ben Tre.

"Luckily, no casualties have been reported. Only one man broke his leg when a tree fell. Earlier, we had evacuated 500 people in high risk areas."

Philippines officials Tuesday said some 1,086 people had died in massive mudslides triggered by rains from Durian as it passed over the country.

MichaelSTL~ Remember when we were looking at that October 2006 Precipitation Anomaly graphic & decided it couldn't be right. Here was my e-mail response on that.

Due to inexplicable ftp backups some fields were is an electronic
pipeline. Don't know why.
Everything looks OK now.

Thanks for your attention and interest.

Huug
Relief map of Thailand - click on map for detail
click for detail
Great explanation there Michael!
is there a probability that durian will strengthen as it lands in the Indian Ocean?
Gulf of Thailand looks very warm.
Looks finished.
.
HO CHI MINH CITY (Reuters) - Typhoon Durian swept into southern Vietnam killing at least 44 people, sinking hundreds of fishing boats and damaging houses, days after it killed hundreds in the Philippines, government officials said on Tuesday.

Weather forecasters said the storm, which has winds up to 120 km (70 miles) per hour and heavy rains, took an unpredictable turn to strengthen and hit low-lying provinces of Vietnam's Mekong Delta rice-basket, raising concerns of severe flooding.

Durian, named after a strong-smelling spiky Asian fruit, could remain a typhoon for the next day, forecasters said.

State-run Vietnam Television showed footage of collapsed houses, fallen trees and electricity pylons as people struggled in wind and rain. The Mekong Delta and Ca Mau peninsula of southern Vietnam rarely experience strong tropical storms and typhoons.

The storm was forecast to push westward toward Thailand, the Malaysian peninsula and into the Andaman Sea.

Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Sinh Hung, in charge of coordinating storm preparations, warned provincial leaders not to underestimate the strength of the typhoon.

"All provinces should prepare so that we do not have another Linda," Hung said on state-run Vietnam Television, referring to typhoon Linda in November 1997 in which there were 600 known deaths and 2,123 never accounted for in southern Vietnam.

Good news for right now:


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1003.9mb/ 37.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.5mb

Center Temp : +4.6C Cloud Region Temp : -0.8C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Hi Randrewl....would it please be possible for you to let me know the link where you get that data from, that would be great thanks.

First of all JTWC are now forecasting Durian to re-intensify once it gets into the Andaman Sea, that's if it can make it there!

Secondly I've just been having a look at the models regarding 93W. UKMET now has this low pressure area listed and forecasts it to head west over next 24 hours. CMC model has a more alarming tracking with this system smacking straight into the same spot as Durian did. It'll be interesting to see what ECMWF comes up with in the 12z run!
Here is the CMC model track that is disturbing for 93W:
cmc model
The USS Intrepid now unstuck and on the Move by tugs.The ol gray Lady Sails again.
Physics update:
#6 MichaelSTL...extra credit too!

Lowercal..half credit.
Good afternoon,

It looks like its lights out for what is now the most deadliest typhoon in 2006.
how do you like the new look hite a state

Link

then some in like this will pop up

Link
Tuesday Physics Answer:

The answer is (c): the center pendulum will move a lot, while all four of the others will move, but with much less amplitude.This is an example of a resonance. The center pendulum on the right is the same length as the pendulum on the left, so they will have the same oscillation frequency and will therefore be "in resonance." This means that when either one of them oscillates the energy is easily transferred to the other because either one, when set into motion, will readily "drive" the other, with the rocking of the support rod providing the coupling mechanism. Note that because the other pendula are not the same length, and therefore do not oscillate at the same frequency, they are not in resonance and will not be driven to large amplitudes of oscillation. Although the rocking motion of the coupling rod does in fact drive the other four pendula to relative degrees, by the time the amplitude of their oscillation builds up to a significant level the driving force becomes out of phase and causes their motion to cease.
The concept of resonance is extremely important in physics, and plays a critical role in physical phenomena dealing with mechanical vibrations, sound, light, and quantum physics.
gator ... have you see the film of that suspension bridge that 'resonated' itself to death? Apparently the winds were just right ...
052100Z POSITION NEAR 8.3N 102.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 24W HAS
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND POOR OUTFLOW ALOFT. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 051523Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE
A DISSIPATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET.




It's done.
Somebody ought to tell this that it is done:

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 DEC 2006 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 8:18:45 N Lon : 102:09:33 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.4mb/ 34.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.8mb

Center Temp : +4.7C Cloud Region Temp : -8.1C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.56^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Jeff?

Thanks for all the great information on Durian. My Sister in law is from the Phillipines and we have been relaying your information by phone to her, here in Washington State.

Greg Carstens
NWS Seattle Spotter Pierce 3
Moderator of WestCoastWeather on Yahoogroups.com
Durian is trying to pull it together just NE of this this webcam. The cam isn't working quite as good as it did yesterday.


click for 24W.DURIAN, ATCF TRACK

What remains of Durian will have to pass across some 6,000 ft (1,800 m) mountains in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province on it's way over Thailand to the Indian Ocean.

Relief map of Thailand - click on map for detail
click for detail
DocBen..no I have not..heard about it though..lol
Nice topo LowerCal! I figured this would happen. Durian would move into a unfavorable area and dissipate over land.

This is one Typhoon I will be happy to see fully die out!
269. Inyo
Taz, just because El Nino isnt kicked in yet doesnt mean CA won't have a wet late december. Remember 2004-2005 which was barely el nino at all but the wettest year in over 100 years! besides, the rains in southern california (if that is where you are) dont usually do much till after christmas, and the GOOD skiing is as often as not in March, even early April.

That being said, GFS shows us getting about a half inch this weekend, with another storm around next weekend. but it changes every day so we could get absolutely nothing, too. Friday a storm will break down the ridge, but with no rain. Saturday night we could get significant rain, but it may cut off, which means it could sail by just offshore and do nothing, i've seen it before.
nop i do not live in southern california i live in nouther california
FINAL WARNING ISSUED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURAIN
Tropical Depression 24W (Durian) Warning #41 Final Warning
Latest news from snow/ice storm last week:

190,000 Ameren customers still powerless after ice storm

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Some 190,000 Ameren Corp. customers in Missouri and Illinois remained without power for a fourth day following a December 1 ice storm, the company said Tuesday on its Web site.

At its height, the storm knocked out power to 1.6 million customers stretching from Texas to Maine, including 517,000 Ameren customers in Missouri and Illinois.

In a release Monday night, Ameren said it would restore service to most customers in Illinois by Wednesday, but some areas with the most severe damage might have to wait until Thursday or Friday for the company to restore service.

The heavily populated St. Louis area, where at least eight people died due to the storm, will get a brief break from the bitter cold on Tuesday and Wednesday when temperatures reach the low 40s Fahrenheit during the day before dropping back to the 20s and 30s on Thursday and Friday.

The company said it had about 7,000 workers engaged in restoring power.

The storm ranks as the utility's worst ice storm. It followed the company's worst summer storms in July, which left more than a million customers without power. It took Ameren more than a week to restore service to all customers after that summer storm.

Ameren owns and operates more than 14,000 MW of generating capacity, markets energy commodities, and transmits and distributes electricity (2.4 million) and natural gas (1 million) to customers in Illinois and Missouri. One MW powers about 800 homes, according to the North American average.
274. 882MB
HEY EVERYBODY 93W REALLY LOOKS LIKE ITS ORGANIZING WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION AND NICE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. REALLY HOPE THIS GETS SHEARED OR CURVE NORTH BECAUSE WITH THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS GOING ON IN THE WEST PACIFIC THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRIME FOR DEBELOPMENT!
Typhoon Durian kills 50 in Vietnam
HO CHI MINH CITY (Reuters) - Typhoon Durian swept southern Vietnam with strong winds and heavy rains on Tuesday, killing at least 50 people, sinking hundreds of fishing boats and damaging houses, days after it battered the Philippines.

State-run Vietnam Television showed footage of a hospital receiving injured patients in Ba Ria Vung Tau province, which recorded 23 deaths, the largest number in the country. The roofs of houses were ripped off, electrical pylons and trees felled.

"It's the hardest storm we've ever felt," one resident near commercial hub Ho Chi Minh City told VTV. One of Vietnam's deputy prime ministers Le Thanh Hai said the government would help residents rebuild their homes.

At least 50 people were killed and 46 reported missing in five provinces -- Ba Ria Vung Tau, Ben Tre, Binh Thuan, Vinh Long and Tien Giang -- and a commune on the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City.

The national flood and storm control centre said in a report on Tuesday that Typhoon Durian damaged or destroyed 18,812 houses and sank 858 fishing boats.

Weather forecasters said the storm, which has winds up to 120 km (70 miles) per hour, was headed west after leaving low-lying provinces of Vietnam's Mekong Delta and into the Gulf of Thailand.

Durian, named after a strong-smelling spiky Asian fruit, could remain a typhoon for the next day, forecasters said.

The southern tip of Vietnam is rarely struck by typhoons or tropical storms and officials said they feared severe flooding and landslides once the storm passed. The area was hit in November 1997 by Typhoon Linda in which there were 600 known deaths and 2,123 never accounted for.

Vietnamese authorities evacuated tens of thousands of people from vulnerable south and central areas before the arrival of Durian, which slammed into the Philippines one notch below a category 5 super-typhoon on Thursday.

On Tuesday, disaster officials raised the toll to 526 dead and 740 missing in three regions of the Philippines hit by Durian, the fourth typhoon in three months. Durian affected more than 1 million people in the archipelago.

Disaster officials said nearly 300,000 houses were destroyed while agriculture and infrastructure damage were estimated at 608 million pesos (6.2 million pounds), devastating large swathe of hemp and coconut farms in the central Bicol region.

Winds and torrential rains from Durian sent walls of mud and water crashing onto rural communities surrounding Mount Mayon, an active volcano about 320 km (200 miles), south of Manila.

(c) Reuters 2006. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world.

This article: http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=1803342006

Last updated: 05-Dec-06 13:39 GMT
Tropical Depression (Former TS DURIAN)

10N 100E -- 25 knots 1008 hPa

moving west at 20 knots
oddly the JMA didn't include a summary for 93W but in the 24 hours to 48 hours it says low pressure area 1008 hPa.
What global warming?



LOL!!!! How about calling it climate change?
Where is global warming when you need it?

More deaths blamed on Midwest storm

ST. LOUIS (AP) - The death toll from last week's winter storm is climbing. At least 23 deaths are now blamed on the weather. The victims died of everything from exposure and carbon monoxide, to car crashes and fires.

Meanwhile, the utility serving the area in and around St. Louis is steadily making progress getting power back. The number of customers without electricity is down to 260-thousand, slightly more than half the original number from last Thursday's ice storm. But the company warns it'll be days before everyone has service restored in Missouri and Illinois.

St. Louis got a bit of a break today. Temperatures that had been in the teens finally made it up to about 40.

Hmmm... I suppose that this wouldn't have happened if global warming was real... LOL
I note Al Gore was on Ophrah today . . .

LOL
Basically reiterated his previously stated arguments about global warming and the role of "big business" in eroding some earth sytems (particularly ozone depletion)

What's this about a new director of NHC being appointed tomorrow?
Buster, do you have anything to say about my last comment?
And the winner is ... ?
The Bush administration has chosen a new director for the National Hurricane Center to replace the retiring Max Mayfield, NOAA announced today.

Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and the Man With Four Titles (NOAA Director, U.S. Undersecretary of Commerce and retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D.) are set to make the announcement at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday in Washington, D.C.

Who is it? Right now your guess is as good as ours (but if you're an insider who feels like unburdening your soul, just click here). Or feel free to comment with your rumors, preferences or wild guesses.

The press release is after the jump.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - December 4, 2006

*** NEWS FROM NOAA *** MEDIA ADVISORY ***
NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
WASHINGTON, DC

COMMERCE SECRETARY AND NOAA ADMINISTRATOR TO ANNOUNCE NEW NATIONAL HURRICANCE CENTER DIRECTOR

Commerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Director Conrad Lautenbacher will introduce the new National Hurricane Center Director on Wednesday, December 6, replacing Max Mayfield, who is retiring.

WHAT: News conference to announce the new Director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center.

WHEN: Wednesday, December 6, 2:30 p.m. EST

WHERE: National Press Club Ballroom 529 14th St. NW Washington, D.C.

WHO: Commerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez
Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., USN (Ret.), under secretary of Commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator
Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.), director, NOAA National Weather Service
New Director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center (to be announced)
Max Mayfield, director, NOAA National Hurricane Center - joining via satellite

NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources.
###

Posted by Bob King at December 4, 2006 05:05 PM

Link
Max enjoying retirement.4
More on the potential new director:

Hiring of hurricane center director in the wind
BY MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer@MiamiHerald.com
Federal officials plan to name Max Mayfield's successor as director of the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday and Bill Proenza, a veteran forecaster and weather service administrator, is the leading contender.

Proenza serves as director of the Southern region of the National Weather Service, based in Fort Worth, Texas. In that role, he manages nearly 1,000 forecasters and other employees in 32 offices in Florida and nine other states.

According to three sources in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, other applicants to succeed Mayfield when he retires next month include Steve Letro, who runs the weather service's Jacksonville office; Bill Reed, who runs the Houston weather office; and Richard Knabb, a relatively new but highly respected forecaster at the hurricane center.

Proenza was traveling and could not be reached for comment Monday night.

Letro confirmed that he had applied for the position and said he did not know who had been selected, but ''I know it's not me.'' Reed and Knabb could not be reached Monday.

A spokesman for NOAA, which manages the hurricane center in West Miami-Dade County and the entire National Weather Service, said he could not confirm or deny that Proenza was a leading contender.

Mayfield, 58, announced in August that he would retire on Jan. 3, after serving more than six years in the highly visible, extremely challenging post.

His deputy director, Ed Rappaport, 48, was seen as a likely candidate to succeed Mayfield, but Rappaport declined to apply for the job, citing personal reasons.

Rappaport is expected to remain as deputy director, handling many behind-the-scenes administrative duties and substituting as necessary for the new director as the primary public face of the forecasting center.

Link
That's a big catch you got there Pat LOL!
I hope that the new director does not have to deal with a 2004 or 2005 type season in his first year, if ever.
Yeah STL, we wouldn't want our new dirctor to run out on us after his first season!
is the temperature of the indian ocean warm enough to build up the cyclones strength. kinda like the gulf of mexico.
Indian Ocean SSTs and NOGAPS forecast track:

Looks like, based on SSTs, there is potential for restrengthening in the Bay of Bengal / Andaman Sea area.

It'll be interesting to see what actually does happen . . .
wow that a big fish
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 9:31 PM CST on December 05, 2006. (hide)
BahaHurican at 3:30 AM GMT on December 06, 2006.

Looks like, based on SSTs, there is potential for restrengthening in the Bay of Bengal / Andaman Sea area.

It'll be interesting to see what actually does happen . . .

That can't happen SSTs are not everything!!


I am shocked!!! Cyclonebuster actually admits that SSTs are not everything!
Lots of comments I've seen refer to the unexpected El Nio as a major cause of forecasters' miscalculation on storm number and intensity.

Has anyone seen any comments on WHY scientests think the El Nio formed faster and more powerfully than expected? What happened to cause such a noticeable change?
Cylconebuster a simple google search will reveal many of the answers to the questions you posed, especially about basin crossing cyclones etc. Here's the latest analysis on 93W that has come into my inbox, up to T1.5 now:

TPPN10 PGTW 060307

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF GUAM

B. 06/0230Z

C. 8.7N/5

D. 142.5E/2

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (05/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

ROACH
Well, I never said SSTs were everything; I said they had the potential to support a restrengthening trend.

Of course there actually has be something THERE to restrengthen . . . . lol
Here is something I remember reading about why El Nino strengthened so much unexpectedly:

It is difficult to attribute this sudden warming to one particular cause, but we believe that intense, long-lived Hurricane Ioke which developed in the central Pacific on August 20 and tracked slowly westward across the central and eastern Pacific was an important contributor to the dramatic transition from neutral to El Nio conditions. Ioke caused strong westerly anomalies to develop at low latitudes near the dateline. These westerlies drove the warm anomalies in the western and central Pacific eastward.


Now, when was the last time something as insignificant as a storm caused something as big as El Nino?
06/0233 UTC 9.9N 98.7E OVERLAND DURIAN -- Bay of Bengal
Michael,

I am reading the whole thing now. One interesting aside: I note their storm track map is a Wunderground map. VEEERRRY interesting . . .
Anyone see what happen to the 2 big tables & chairs on the beach from the Thailand cam? People take them in? Rinsed away? They were there not 2 hours ago. Well by then 2 chairs had washed away.
LOL! The convection you see is likely being enhanced by the mountains of Thailand, which are ripping it to pieces.
But then Ioke was no insigificant storm. She was powerful and large enough to cause significant displacement of water. I'm assuming the lengthy track across the central Pacific blew / piled up warm waters to the east? Or is it the upwelling that made SST in the CPac cooler in comparison to the EPac?

This is quite interesting to think about.
The center is over land and as you know, Ernesto did not even have to actually make landfall in Haiti for the mountains to weaken it.
the center won't be overland for long if it continues to move west at 15 to 18 knots
I don't really see any significant increase in El Nino at the end of August here; it looks like whatever started El Nino happened in May:

If it had been a more powerful system right now, it would have likely made it. But as a TD?

I don't think so.

Still I'll wait till tomorrow . . .
May.. hmm Chanchu

first Super Typhoon
Michael,

Look about 1/3 of the way into August. After that the temps seem to climb rapidly rather than steadily. E.G. Nino 3 apparently rose more in the latter 2/3 of August than in the 3 previous months combined.

I think this is what Gray et al were referring to.
So are we concluding now that it's the cyclones that are driving the el nino, and not the other way around?
I doubt that Chanchu actually had any significant effect on El Nino. Also, don't forget that El Nino is not official (according to the CPC) until conditions persist for 5 months or longer (it became official in September); the La Nina last winter never lasted long enough to be official, although it was a La Nina when anomalies are considered and it also likely affected the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season (and East Pacific; the East Pacific in 2005 had an early end, like the Atlantic this year).
I can't write off Durian yet. It's been tenacous. It looks like it's trying to go over the narrow less mountainous area. Soon what's left will be in a pocket of 0 shear. It's flying over land, if it slows on the other side all the more chance. The potental is in the beyond the H5 black. & watch the loop. I was looking at MIMIC earlier as well, it looks like it's trying.

I noticed Al Gore on Opera today. Though not a normal fan I don't have cable & it was on the Inconvinent Truth. Which I finally saw the other night. Dr Masters was right on with his review of that film. By the end of the show Opera had gone green, I had never thought I'd see the day.
You guys listen to Skye. She's right...always....except for that global warming thing...nobody's perfect.
Randrewl..lol..one of these days. When you gonna find me a peer approved article in the last 5 years against it? Ya know something not funded by an energy company... How about any country's stance against it & there, nothing rewritten by one of Bush's aids with no scientific background. Even Iraq & Iran admit it, that's like Phillip Morris saying...well guess that does cause cancer.

Buster~ she's not gonna fund no tunnel, the problem was solved in Lowes with the right light bulb, hot water heater blanket, outdoor solar lighting, frequent air filter changes, energy starr appliances...ya know the little things we could do that would save us 20% on our electric bill & take 20% off what our house ends up releasing in CO2. Short of planting trees everything you can do easily in your life to reduce CO2 saves you money & increases the resale value of your home. That's why they like Randrewl in the dark. But really Buster your ruining the topic for us. Peoples minds were once changed here often, your tanting the subject. Your even talking about weakening a TD today. Some trees can't reproduce without a cane. It's nature, you stop them & you stop the heat transfer from ocean to atmosphere & beyond. So then the oceans only get warmer since you've trapped the heat there. That doesn't stop melting of ice. There's things you can put in the currents that make electricity quite well. Countries (mostly island nations) that don't have easy acsess or alliances with oil use them.

& what I stated there was all true...Oprah.com careful don't let Al Gore bore ya to death. I had to laugh at the beginning of his movie..it couldn't have opened in a slower more put ya to sleep tone, while watching a gentle river.

& I ain't always right on these storms just on a streak lately (in this basin)...or I should stop looking at models & discussions, not sure which, probibly the streak.

Divergance at the top has increased but so has convergance at the bottom. So probibly not complete death by mountains but without a new center reforming on the otherside avoiding the land mess, can't say 100% sure. ~ Now I've gone too long to get in a blog update. Tommarrow ya'll.
Blah...Blah...Blah Skye. You're still the best and you guys better listen to her!
Hope Buster is gone.
Think computer models Skye....they all work from computer models. Show me one that is correct within a reasonable margin... then I will concede.
Storm ID: 24W.INVEST (Former Durian)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
An area of convection near 9.9N 98.5E or 360 nm east- southeast of Andaman Islands. Imagery shows an improved cosolidation and well defined low level circulation center. Analysis shows the area is within improving environment with low vertical wind sheer.

Maximum sustained winds are 20 to 25 knots with a center pressure of 1004mb. Potential development to form into a tropical cyclone is fair.

=======================

Storm ID: 93W INVEST

Japan Meteorological Agency

low pressure area
4.0N 148.0E -- < 20 knots 1008 hPa

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Area of convection near 9.0N 142.3E or 300 nm south-southwest of Guam. Imagery shows an improve cosolidation of low level circulation center. The analysis shows the disturbance center is within favorable environment with low vertical sheer.

Maximum sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots and a center pressure 1004 mb. Potential development to form into a tropical cyclone has been upgraded to fair.
OK...go hula hoop for a bit...I'll be right back.
I don't think they can control this....






LMAO...the Froot loup current!
You need to take a break man...listen to this. It will make you think clearer.
Can you hear this?
So, you read good...you type kinda good but you are deaf. And you like your cereal from a trough. Is that about it?
I'm having a hard time with the deaf part personally.
LMAO...work on it...then listen to this one!




You can't track storms deaf!
It's like a one legged man in a butt kicking contest.
Not that special really...just Tom Petty!
Tom Petty said in that song that tunnel talk was bad! You should plug in your speakers man!
Tunnel talk bad....Froot Loops good!
I want to de-educate people about the global warming thing myself....but I don't shove it at them 24 hours a day. Understand?
Oops, excuse me - wrong blog!! I thought this was the serious weather blog (swift retreat > > > > > > > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You think too less of yourself...I expect to live till the next ice-age personally.
I expect that has already started by now! LOL!
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE