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Dry Air Dominating the Tropical Atlantic; the Pacific Quieting Down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:09 PM GMT on August 12, 2014

Tropical wave 94L was located near 14°N, 35°W on Tuesday morning, but is no longer a threat to develop. Satellite loops show that the wave has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, and water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 94L is now embedded in a very dry environment. The wave should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain showers. None of the reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation (the GFS, European, and UKMET) develop 94L or anything else in the Atlantic during the coming five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 0% chance of developing. Like last year, the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean continue to be dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air, which discourages tropical storm formation. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model shows this pattern continuing into at least the last week of August.


Figure 1. Satellite analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) done at 8 am EDT August 12, 2014, shows a large area of dry air covering much of the Atlantic. The dry air comes from both the Sahara and from sinking air from an unusually strong area of high pressure over the Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa in 2014. The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Normal instability is the black line, and this year's instability levels are in blue. The atmosphere has been dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air since February, which has made it difficult for tropical storms to develop. Instability has also been unusually low over the Caribbean, but has been near average over the rest of the Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

The Pacific quiets down
In the Pacific, we have only one active named storm: Tropical Storm Julio, with top winds of 65 mph, which is about 700 miles north of Hawaii and headed northwards out to sea. Julio passed well north of the Hawaiian islands over the weekend, maintaining hurricane strength over a portion of the ocean where no hurricane had ever been recorded before.

NHC is tracking two disturbances in the Eastern Pacific: Invest 99E, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and an area of disturbed weather located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Residents of Hawaii should keep an eye on this second disturbance, which NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 30%, respectively, in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook. The GFS model predicts this disturbance will develop by this weekend and come within 500 miles of Hawaii in 7 - 8 days. The model also predicts that 99E will develop, but stay well away from any land areas.


Figure 3. Enormous tree damage was done to forests on Hawaii's Big Island by Tropical Storm Iselle. Image credit: wunderphotographer mountainwx.

Hawaii cleans up after Tropical Storm Iselle
Power is still out to about 10% of the people on Hawaii's Big Island from Tropical Storm Iselle, which hit the southeast shore of the island on Friday as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Iselle is only the second tropical storm on record to hit the Big Island, and was the strongest. About 22,000 customers lost power during the height of the storm on the Big Island, and many of the 8,000 customers still without power may not see their electricity restored until next week, said Hawaii Electric Light. The power company said, "the extent of damage is worse than anything we’ve ever seen here." Iselle damaged about 150 homes and businesses on the Big Island.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.I have little hope for this basin..These waves seem to be falling apart.
Thanks Dr. Masters ! It appears to monsoons of India have come here, with all this heavy rain coming.
CFS, ex 94L
Quoting 1. washingtonian115:

Thanks Doc.I have little hope for this basin..These waves seem to be falling apart.
So say bye,until next year.
Thanks Jeff...
94L is not at 14N nowhere close to it

Anyway I think it's not gonna give up that easy even if it looks like it's hanging on an old thread so I'm not gonna give up on it just yet

Quoting 4. prcane4you:

So say bye,until next year.
Weather will still happen regardless of what's going on in the tropics...
Thanks Dr. Masters
Wishcasters here are suffering a very deep tropical depression.
Thanks Dr M
We appeciate all that you do for us!
Quoting 9. prcane4you:

Wishcasters here are suffering a very deep tropical depression.
Booooo.
Quoting 9. prcane4you:

Wishcasters here are suffering a very deep tropical depression.

Quoting 6. wunderkidcayman:

94L is not at 14N nowhere close to it

Anyway I think it's not gonna give up that easy even if it looks like it's hanging on an old thread so I'm not gonna give up on it just yet


Hope is a great thing.
Quoting 7. washingtonian115:

Weather will still happen regardless what;s going on in the tropics...
Yep, as you have seen my intention is not zoned in on the tropics as I keep talking about weather in the Continental US. My Intentions were not really on it as they said it would be a quiet season, it was expected.
Good thing the internet wasn't big in 1983. 4 named storms would have driven this board to once a week posts and 100 comments.
Quoting 13. prcane4you:

Hope is a great thing.


that and gratitude
Quoting 11. washingtonian115:

Booooo.
lol
Quoting 14. Climate175:

Yep, as you have seen my intention is not zoned in on the tropics as I keep talking about weather in the Continental US. My Intentions were not really on it as they said it would be a quiet season, it was expected.
It's raining really heavy outside.This should keep us out of drought for a long time.
Quoting 6. wunderkidcayman:

94L is not at 14N nowhere close to it

Anyway I think it's not gonna give up that easy even if it looks like it's hanging on an old thread so I'm not gonna give up on it just yet




13.6N is where the last run of the SHIPS model put 94L's center of rotation. Most of the heavy thunderstorms were to the south, it is true.

Dr. M.
Quoting 18. washingtonian115:

It's raining really heavy outside.This should keep us out of drought for a long time.
Yep, this should help the grass and plants.
Quoting 6. wunderkidcayman:

94L is not at 14N nowhere close to it

Anyway I think it's not gonna give up that easy even if it looks like it's hanging on an old thread so I'm not gonna give up on it just yet





Like I always heard, never ever underestimate a tropical cloud
Quoting 19. JeffMasters:



13.6N is where the last run of the SHIPS model put 94L's center of rotation. Most of the heavy thunderstorms were to the south, it is true.

Dr. M.
I trust you.
Quoting 19. JeffMasters:



13.6N is where the last run of the SHIPS model put 94L's center of rotation. Most of the heavy thunderstorms were to the south, it is true.

Dr. M.
what going to happern to the tropical wave back of invest 94L
Quoting 1. washingtonian115:

Thanks Doc.I have little hope for this basin..These waves seem to be falling apart.


Last year instant replay, conditions right off the African coast are better than last year so strong waves don't just poof, but MDR is even more non conducive for development. 94L is done, next wave looks oh so promising and 94L has really moistened the environment; oh wait we've heard this before and means little with SAL, shear, and vertical instability dominating. When these waves reach the Caribbean, still not hospitable. Shear has lowered in Caribbean but trade winds still ripping convection down to nil. Maybe by late August we'll get our first wave to survive and grow in Caribbean.
I am still watching this tropical wave
Quoting 21. K8eCane:




Like I always heard, never ever underestimate a tropical cloud
Quoting 23. hurricanes2018:

what going to happern to the tropical wave back of invest 94L
The same as 94L,poof
How did Julio stay alive so far north of Hawaii? I thought the waters would not support a tropical system up that far north in that part of the Pacific.
Quoting 21. K8eCane:




Like I always heard, never ever underestimate a tropical cloud
Quoting 23. hurricanes2018:

what going to happern to the tropical wave back of invest 94L
The same as 94L,poof
Thanks Dr.; Like last year, the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean continue to be dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air, which discourages tropical storm formation. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model shows this pattern continuing into at least the last week of August.

It is looking at the moment like a potential repeat of last year in terms of unfavorable conditions in the Central Atlantic, through the end of August, preventing full blown hurricanes from forming (as opposed to struggling tropical storms).  Have to see how this issue pans out this particular season.  The interesting question for me will be whether this is a short-term back-to-back anomaly which is a separate issue from the Enso phase; we had enso neutral conditions the last two years with pending el nino this year but the same dry stable environment.  On the El Nino issue, here is this am's update from the Aussies:

El Nino still a possibility for 2014

Issued on Tuesday 12 August 2014 | 

The Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Nino development. Some warming has occurred in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean in the recent fortnight, due to a weakening of the trade winds. If the trade winds remain weak, more warming towards El Nino thresholds is possible.

The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status. This means the chance of an El Nino developing in 2014 is at least 50%, which is double the normal likelihood of an event. Five of the eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Nino is likely for spring. However, if El Nino were to occur, it is unlikely to be a strong event.

El Nino is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Similar impacts regularly occur prior to the event becoming fully established.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below 120.4 C (the negative IOD threshold) since mid-June, which means 2014 is now considered a negative IOD year. Model outlooks suggest this negative IOD event is likely to be relatively short-lived, with the Indian Ocean returning to neutral by spring. A negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter winter and spring conditions to inland and southern Australia, and could be countering the effects of the current El Nino-like ocean pattern in the Pacific.   

i wonder how yrs they used to determine the vertical instability average? we are doing pretty good so far considering td2&bertha&now 94.
Quoting K8eCane:



Like I always heard, never ever underestimate a tropical cloud
Or overestimate one either...
Quoting 25. hurricanes2018:

I am still watching this tropical wave
Soon your gonna watch nothing but a swirl.
This blog is where I turn first for my tropical info. I do great as long as I remember the order of things

Pouch
Wave
Blob
Invest
Cat 5 hitting CI in 3 days!!!!!
Quoting 666. StormTrackerScott:

If you look at the CFS precip anomalies for September you will see very dry conditions across the Caribbean which would suggest that convection will be very limited across the Caribbean during the Peak of hurricane season.




Yes the CFS and other guidance suggests the east coast trough deepening further south into September, hence the above average rain in September over Florida in the favorable upper divergence and upper energy position of the trough and slightly below average north of us indicating frequent dry spells in the wake of deepening troughs.

Later this week, the deep moisture band to the north is expected to move south into Central Florida shifting the heaviest rainfall into our area as a surface wave of low pressure drives the convergence zone south into Central FL and pools even deeper moisture across Central Florida ahead of the surface wave. This is possibly a sign of September.
Quoting FLORIDASKIES:
How did Julio stay alive so far north of Hawaii? I thought the waters would not support a tropical system up that far north in that part of the Pacific.
A well developed storm can fight off a lot of negatives. A poorly developed storm can be killed by only one negative.
Quoting JeffMasters:


13.6N is where the last run of the SHIPS model put 94L's center of rotation. Most of the heavy thunderstorms were to the south, it is true.

Dr. M.

Looking at vort maps and I see a slight low level rotation centered further S
I estimate it to be near 12.0N/12.5N
Doc please can you send me the text data for the SHIPS models please and thank you
Quoting 3. JRRP:

CFS, ex 94L

that model has actually been doing really well still it will be welcomed rains for me in the virgin islands
Quoting 6. wunderkidcayman:

94L is not at 14N nowhere close to it

Anyway I think it's not gonna give up that easy even if it looks like it's hanging on an old thread so I'm not gonna give up on it just yet




It's at 13.6. I would say that it quite close to 14.0. Doesn't matter anyway. Conditions simply stink in the MDR. Even though the next wave looks great, it will meet the same demise as 94L.

Over the last 20 years the single biggest factor impeding the Atlantic seasons was El Nino. I believe that trend changed over the past couple of years and now a more significant factor is dry, stable, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic. Dr. Gray talked a lot about long term active/non active periods. The Atlantic was active during the '50's and 60's. Quiet during the 70', 80's and early 90's. We entered an active period in '95 and it looks like we have come out of it. His reasoning for the change was African dust causing more stable conditions in the Atlantic. For the second year now, this is exactly what we are seeing.
Quoting 818. EpsilonWeather:


The thing isn't done just because it's barren, Bertha? Still has some decent vorticity with it, it should still be watched if it makes it's way into the Western Caribbean or BOC. (Even professionals make mistakes sometimes, and the models are effectively just tools to get a general idea of what MIGHT happen, and they are wrong more often than not no matter how technologically advanced they have become now or will become in the future)


Some of your points are valid in given circumstances. Yes, professionals make mistakes. Mets are not always right. When they are wrong, it is usually in highly fluid and unpredictable situations. Models are neither "right" nor "wrong" in most cases. As you said, they are a tool. A very, very useful tool which can be coupled with realistic observations to make fairly accurate determinations of likely outcomes. In this case, all of the major models say there is only really ONE outcome for ex 94.

"Tropical wave 94L was located near 14°N, 35°W on Tuesday morning, but is no longer a threat to develop."

Now there will always be those that continue to "believe" in something even when there is only minimalistic chances of it happening. Mainly because they "want" it to happen that way. Never really a good mindset for predicting the Tropical Atlantic basin.

If you could install a newfangled HVAC in your home for only $10 and it would reduce your electric and gas bill by 90%; BUT all the experts, and product testing say there is a 95% chance that it would cause your house to burn down...Would you do it?

When there are high levels of uncertainty either in tropical cyclone formation, intensification, or track; then typically you will see the models, as a group, showing divergent solutions. Stretching from one end of the spectrum to the other. We do not see that with ex94.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Looking at vort maps and I see a slight low level rotation centered further S
I estimate it to be near 12.0N/12.5N
Doc please can you send me the text data for the SHIPS models please and thank you
You can get them yourself here. How can you claim to be doing forecasting and not know this?
42. JRRP
Quoting hurricanes2018:
I am still watching this tropical wave

Quoting junie1:
that model has actually been doing really well still it will be welcomed rains for me in the virgin islands
Quite true. Ex94L will still be a decent TW headed into the Antilles. It should bring much needed rains while not developing into anything more than a TW. These waves have given the Islands the best of all possible worlds so far - rainfall with no concomitant destruction. I would be pleased to see this be the outcome of the season.
Quoting 32. prcane4you:

Soon your gonna watch nothing but a swirl.

Sadly, I believe that will be true.
Quoting sar2401:
You can get them yourself here. How can you claim to be doing forecasting and not know this?

I've been doing forecasting and I know about it I'm working off my IPad I don't have the link to the FTP file on it
I have it on my computer but my computer is out of action at the moment
Quoting luvtogolf:


He doesn't forecast. He wishcasts.
He claims he "works" with the Caymans Met Service. SHIPS text files are pretty basic stuff when it come to the tropics.
Quoting 27. FLORIDASKIES:
How did Julio stay alive so far north of Hawaii? I thought the waters would not support a tropical system up that far north in that part of the Pacific.


Actually, he kinda skirted the edge of the 26C SST zone.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I've been doing forecasting and I know about it I'm working off my IPad I don't have the link to the FTP file on it
I have it on my computer but my computer is out of action at the moment
Google doesn't work on an iPad?
Quoting 666. StormTrackerScott:

If you look at the CFS precip anomalies for September you will see very dry conditions across the Caribbean which would suggest that convection will be very limited across the Caribbean during the Peak of hurricane season.

My hopes for significant Cape Verde storms are just about gone.

If the US is going to be threatened by anything, it seems like its gonna have to be home grown. However, despite the incredibly favorable conditions in the Gulf, the pattern just hasn't favored tropical systems popping up around there.
That is open to interpretation WKC. The first step in problem solving is to identify the root cause...

Guessing this is the big wave over Africa right now. And that area ENE of the Bahamas has been on several runs. Not sure what phase evolution says about it though...and it never seems to amount to too much either way.

Quoting 48. sar2401:

He claims he "works" with the Caymans Met Service. SHIPS text files are pretty basic stuff when it come to the tropics.


LOL at that...
2004 and 2005 spoiled a lot of people.

2005 would have been perfect, except for thousands of dead people in a major American city. That kind of ruins any excitement of an active season, TV news with dead bodies floating in the floods. I hear stuff even from my wife when watching a major tornado outbreak on TV, it isn't death and destruction I want, just the raw power of the storms. Of course, they sometimes come with death and destruction, but I can hope as hard as I want for a Cat 5 to hit Miami this year, or not hit New Orleans, and it will happen if the atmosphere is set up to make it happen

2004 and a daytime Florida landfall of a Cat 4? Spoiled. And 10 years now.
I wonder when we'll stop having trash systems??
Quoting sar2401:
He claims he "works" with the Caymans Met Service. SHIPS text files are pretty basic stuff when it come to the tropics.

Yep
SHIPS text is basic but informative

Quoting sar2401:
Google doesn't work on an iPad?


Google works fine on the IPad
I'm using the safari browser at the moment
It works good
I'm also using puffin browser
Quoting 56. opal92nwf:

I wonder when we'll stop having trash systems??
get rid of that high pressure and we will go back to normal. high pressure is the reason everything is pretty much dead. not SAL not shear not ssts
Quoting 38. jrweatherman:



It's at 13.6. I would say that it quite close to 14.0. Doesn't matter anyway. Conditions simply stink in the MDR. Even though the next wave looks great, it will meet the same demise as 94L.

Over the last 20 years the single biggest factor impeding the Atlantic seasons was El Nino. I believe that trend changed over the past couple of years and now a more significant factor is dry, stable, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic. Dr. Gray talked a lot about long term active/non active periods. The Atlantic was active during the '50's and 60's. Quiet during the 70', 80's and early 90's. We entered an active period in '95 and it looks like we have come out of it. His reasoning for the change was African dust causing more stable conditions in the Atlantic. For the second year now, this is exactly what we are seeing.


I agree, we are now in for 15-20 years of a less active period, starting within the past 2-3 years. Perhaps a "warning sign" that the active is transitioning back to inactive is the continued presence of elevated numbers of named storms for a few years, but with unfavorable conditions and weak, sheared cyclones.

Maybe the reverse is also true with the return of the active period; continued lower numbers of actual storms but a tendency towards a few more potent damaging land falling storms (Hugo and Andrew) as the approach of a new active period begins. This is just pure speculation on my part of course.

As for the weather around here, typical hot, muggy August conditions. As long as we get a good downpour every couple days, I'm happy.
Funny when I said T.D 2 wouldn't amount to much and said some bloggers were wishcasting.Next thing you know I was called a downcaster,a troll ect ..and yet this blogger is getting praise for it :).

Gotta love the double standard on this blog...
Center of circulation? Where? What I see is a bunch of little clouds.
Quoting 56. opal92nwf:

I wonder when we'll stop having trash systems??


Could be as soon as 2015. I have a feeling though, one slow season during an active season doesn't a trend make, 2009 wasn't really a slow season (it was for the US, but not the basin), but 2010 forward, even the years with a high number of named storms, most were trash. IIRC, Sandy by Cuba was the only major of 2012.

2010 through what looks like 2014, maybe active time is over. I could be wrong, but I thought I read somewhere the MDR SSTs were the coldest since the warm AMO began. Hence the thought that back to years like 82 or 83, 4-6 named storms per year, an occasional major, mostly junk.

BTW, I can live with a "fish storm" if it becomes a major and has an awesome satellite presentation. (I've been getting my fill on West Pac typhoons lately). A TC would be good for my lawn, but I have found out even a meager Cat 2 hurricane can be a real inconvenience. But I don't need landfall in my area to consider it an interesting season.
saying 94 is done,yet..models dont think so,if it survives till the islands,all bets off.................
Quoting 46. hurricanes2018:


invest 94L still got a good spin to it
Quoting 60. washingtonian115:

Funny when I said T.D 2 wouldn't amount to much and said some bloggers were wishcasting.Next thing you know I was called a downcaster,a troll ect ..and yet this blogger is getting praise for it :).

Gotta love the double standard on this blog...
A troll? Some people here likes to called everyone troll.
Dry air seems to be a bigger problem this year than last year. This was Erin (essentially a dust storm lol) & 94L from around this time last year:

">

If the waves had that sort of environment, I'm sure we would be getting some rather interesting systems. But it seems that the dry air is packing a bigger punch this year.
Quoting 64. LargoFl:

saying 94 is done,yet..models dont think so,if it survives till the islands,all bets off.................


You know NHC didn't run the 12Z cycle models?
Quoting 64. LargoFl:

saying 94 is done,yet..models dont think so,if it survives till the islands,all bets off.................
I have not written 94L off yet.Felix looked pathetic in the MDR so did Gustav..



Not saying that will happen in this case...
we might get a surprise from 94L in a few days out............................................
Quoting 65. hurricanes2018:

invest 94L still got a good spin to it
Yeah,a naked spin is and a naked spin will be.
Quoting 18. washingtonian115:

It's raining really heavy outside.This should keep us out of drought for a long time.


An inch will buy us about a week to ten days. Glad to see it though.
Quoting 70. LargoFl:

we might get a surprise from 94L in a few days out............................................
Why? is going to dissipated?
Quoting 55. EdMahmoud:

2004 and 2005 spoiled a lot of people.

2005 would have been perfect, except for thousands of dead people in a major American city. That kind of ruins any excitement of an active season, TV news with dead bodies floating in the floods. I hear stuff even from my wife when watching a major tornado outbreak on TV, it isn't death and destruction I want, just the raw power of the storms. Of course, they sometimes come with death and destruction, but I can hope as hard as I want for a Cat 5 to hit Miami this year, or not hit New Orleans, and it will happen if the atmosphere is set up to make it happen

2004 and a daytime Florida landfall of a Cat 4? Spoiled. And 10 years now.


2004 (and 2005) TOTALLY spoiled me and I have been going through withdrawal ever since. Ever since walking outside in TD Ernesto in 2006 in light rain and 10-15 mph winds, trying to re-create the experience of the previous two years.

2004 featured a daytime landfalling category 4 traversing the FL Peninsula at an oblique angle. Most special to me, giving the only documented, proven, true hurricane to Orlando. I am sad that I will likely never witness seasons like this with such profound affects in inland Central FL again in my lifetime. I absolutely would not wish for this type of damage and loss of life as occurred from 2004-2005 seasons, but I can certainly appreciate the power of nature. Storms (especially wind storms) are how I express/experience the adrenaline junkie within.

There have been some fairly gusty winds in the afternoon storms here the past couple of months, but the lightning keeps me from running outside.
Quoting 20. Climate175:

Yep, this should help the grass and plants.


It was much much needed in my garden. however the GFS is bringing serious heat back next week for the DC metro area. Could wipe out or seriously set back my fall peas. Peas are tough here in fall though because of late summer heat risk and frost vulnerability in fall. The leaves are frost tolerant but the blossoms and pods are as vulnerable as tomatoes so the first frost in fall ends the crop.
Quoting 70. LargoFl:

we might get a surprise from 94L in a few days out............................................
big surprise is going to be a cat 4 hurricane in a few days from now!
atlantic and gulf needs to be quiet 4 now BUT watch out for sept. and oct. in the gulf strange things happen on the stalled cold fronts in the BOC
Just to note, 94L is over some very marginal waters right now. Barely 26C underneath it for the moment. I'm sure once it moves further west into 26.5C+ water it'll light up a bit more.

Quoting 76. hurricanes2018:

big surprise is going to be a cat 4 hurricane in a few days from now!


Why are we acting like 94L is the last wave of the season? We have another wave that should be designated 95L in a few days. It may or may not have the same fate as 94L, nobody knows yet.
Long way to go yet but it appears my forecast of 5 to 7 named storms maybe right on the money.
Quoting LargoFl:
we might get a surprise from 94L in a few days out............................................
I'm afraid it will only surprise people who expect it to develop. Have you seen the large wave that just moved through the Islands? Did it develop? If waves can't make it in the MDR, they aren't going to make it in the Caribbean.
The expert just arrived,be prepare to join the fun.
Quoting 80. StormTrackerScott:

Long way to go yet but it appears my forecast of 5 to 7 named storms maybe right on the money.


Exactly, so your forecast is no where near right on the money yet. Bring it up once the active part of the season is over, because it's barely begun:




Invest 94L is no different than the countless other waves that we've seen this year that looked great right over emerging, only to succumb to dry air as it headed west. The only two exceptions to that pattern have been TD2 and TS Bertha, both of which formed from the passage of the convectively-active portion of a kelvin wave. The unfavorable phase of the kelvin wave is passing over 94L now, only making the dry air issue worse. I don't see any reason why this will be a threat to develop anytime soon, if ever.
Long Range GFS, showing the wave behind 94L becoming this, might be gone next run but just good for the looking at.
Quoting LargoFl:
saying 94 is done,yet..models dont think so,if it survives till the islands,all bets off.................
Largo, did you notice the time on that plot? 0705z. It's now 1639z. The NHC didn't even do the 12z run because there's nothing - zero - for models to use for initialization. Those models are garbage to begin with. Only the LGEM has skill, and that's for intensity within 72 hours with a developed cyclone, not a naked swirl. I don't know why you want to keep riding this wave but that's all it's ever going to be - a wave.
Future 95L looks to have come off much further north than 94L.
It took me a while, but this blog averages an argument every 41 posts. Shameful.
Quoting FOREX:
It took me a while, but this blog averages an argument every 41 posts. Shameful.
No it doesn't. :-)
Pretty early to be pounding your chest claiming forecast victory considering the active period is just starting.

hey.....keeping the crow factory alive...one meal at a time
Quoting 85. Climate175:

Long Range GFS, showing the wave behind 94L becoming this, might be gone next one but just good for the looking at.
Oh boy is the same again,and again,and again. I love it.
At some point the instability will rise just due to the mere fact that these waves that rolling off of Africa are coming in with a ton of moisture.





I still think 94L should be watched, especially down the road if it makes it into the W. Carib. where the highest TCHP content is located.
Quoting Envoirment:


Exactly, so your forecast is no where near right on the money yet. Bring it up once the active part of the season is over, because it's barely begun:




I know my preseason forecasts have been right on the money for about 20 years....mostly.
Quoting 94. GTstormChaserCaleb:

At some point the instability will rise just due to the mere fact that these waves that rolling off of Africa are coming in with a ton of moisture.





I still think 94L should be watched, especially down the road if it makes it into the W. Carib. where the highest TCHP content is located.
i feel vertical instability is to blame for the sinking air... if it was at least closer to the blue line, it would not be this bad......
I've seen the term floating around here for a little bit. When did the term "trash" become an official description of a wave/disturbance/etc that never materializes into anything "significant?"
Quoting 93. prcane4you:

Oh boy is the same again,and again,and again. I love it.
GFS likes to play games, if it ever wanted to run for president it won't win. I say a flip to the flop.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
At some point the instability will rise just due to the mere fact that these waves that rolling off of Africa are coming in with a ton of moisture.





I still think 94L should be watched, especially down the road if it makes it into the W. Carib. where the highest TCHP content is located.
I would point out that the amount of moisture carried by one, or even three, tropical waves, is infinitesimal compared with the amount of dry air and dust potential in the Sahara. Waves have been coming off Africa since May with no discernable affect on the MDR.
Quoting 88. FOREX:

It took me a while, but this blog averages an argument every 41 posts. Shameful.


If you do as you're told there wouldn't be any arguments. You have to remember the following:

Never discuss a wave coming off of Africa
Never give an opinion on the condition of a wave or it's possible future.
Do not ever post a model unless it has been approved by the Secretary of the Interior and the Secretary of Defense.
DO NOT ever post an intensity model until a system is at least already a Cat 4
Unless a system is already named, we are not to discuss it.
Never, ever say a system is looking good. (Leave that for the weather nerds and wishcasters)

What do you think this is; a weather blog?



Quoting 85. Climate175:

Long Range GFS, showing the wave behind 94L becoming this, might be gone next one but just good for the looking at.


I think that is the wave behind the wave that just emerged...Or another one behind that. The GFS shows an odd scenario unfolding S of Cape Verde. It has for a few runs now. Shows an 850mb vort meandering S of the Islands, then heading N towards the Cape Verdes before finally beginning a trek to the W or WSW after several days. I'm really not sure what to make of that ATM. There is some persistence to what its showing though.
Quoting 96. wunderweatherman123:

i feel vertical instability is to blame for the sinking air... if it was at least closer to the blue line, it would not be this bad......
Tons of moisture to be kill by tons of dry air.
Quoting NNYer:
I've seen the term floating around here for a little bit. When did the term "trash" become an official description of a wave/disturbance/etc that never materializes into anything "significant?"
It's not official. The official term is "Deretrius Wave".
Quoting 98. Climate175:

GFS likes to play games, if it ever wants to run for president it won't win.
Pattern looks favorable for landfalls if the 500 mb. heights are to be believed.
Quoting 102. StormJunkie:



I think that is the wave behind the wave that just emerged...Or another one behind that. The GFS shows an odd scenario unfolding S of Cape Verde. It has for a few runs now. Shows an 850mb vort meandering S of the Islands, then heading N towards the Cape Verdes before finally beginning a trek to the W or WSW after several days. I'm really not sure what to make of that ATM. There is some persistence to what its showing though.
100% agree, A+ statement.
Quoting 99. sar2401:

I would point out that the amount of moisture carried by one, or even three, tropical waves, is infinitesimal compared with the amount of dry air and dust potential in the Sahara. Waves have been coming off Africa since May with no discernable affect on the MDR.
Tons of moisture to be kill by tons of dry air.
Quoting 97. NNYer:

I've seen the term floating around here for a little bit. When did the term "trash" become an official description of a wave/disturbance/etc that never materializes into anything "significant?"


The term "trash" was needed in order to counteract the unrealistic expectations that systems were going to "bomb" out or get "very interesting" when they got to X location. Basically, it was needed to bring balance to the universe...or blogosphere. ;-)
Quoting 99. sar2401:

I would point out that the amount of moisture carried by one, or even three, tropical waves, is infinitesimal compared with the amount of dry air and dust potential in the Sahara. Waves have been coming off Africa since May with no discernable affect on the MDR.
Yes, but those waves weren't coming off as high in latitude. Remember the ITCZ has to lift north, in the off season it's usually down by 5 N.
Quoting 101. Grothar:


If you do as you're told there wouldn't be any arguments. You have to remember the following:

Never discuss a wave coming off of Africa
Never give an opinion on the condition of a wave or it's possible future.
Do not ever post a model unless it has been approved by the Secretary of the Interior and the Secretary of Defense.
DO NOT ever post an intensity model until a system is at least already a Cat 4
Unless a system is already names, we are not to discuss it.
Never, ever say a system is looking good. (Leave that for the weather nerds and wishcasters)

What do you think this is; a weather blog?





You are too liberal, Gro!

It should be never post an intensity model unless it's a Cat 5!
I'm trying to share a video from youtube but i don't know how to do it. I need help.
Quoting 105. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Pattern looks favorable for landfalls if the 500 mb. heights are to be believed.
Kori correctly called this pattern happening. however there are no storms ready to take advantage of this pattern. will be shocked if we get no named storms in august... realistically, i think we should get 3 more tropical storms this month. 1 should be at least a hurricane if not a major
114. FOREX
Quoting 100. stormpetrol:




Anything interesting here?
I know that we all have been waiting for something in the deep tropics to emerge as something BIG to track especially me but I think if the GFS models are constant with some type of storm developing then I think we should wait this is probably futile though but thats what tropics weather is all about
sar makes some huge predictions. calling the end to Cane Season on 8/12 takes some courage man....

sar do you believe the SAL will be around through the rest of the season?
just curious to see what you think about that
117. NNYer
Quoting 108. StormJunkie:



The term "trash" was needed in order to counteract the unrealistic expectations that systems were going to "bomb" out or get "very interesting" when they got to X location. Basically, it was needed to bring balance to the universe...or blogosphere. ;-)

Makes perfect sense if you describe it that way! Need to lay it on thick no matter which way the opinion floats! ;-]
Quoting 99. sar2401:

I would point out that the amount of moisture carried by one, or even three, tropical waves, is infinitesimal compared with the amount of dry air and dust potential in the Sahara. Waves have been coming off Africa since May with no discernable affect on the MDR.


The tropical wave that just emerged off the West African coastline has a ton of spin to it, and an area of organizing thunderstorms and rain with it as well. Also the central African wave has a lot of spin to it as well. These both are areas of low pressure.
Quoting 111. WeatherfanPR:

I'm trying to share a video from youtube but i don't know how to do it. I need help.
Mia amigo es bien facil,busca las herramientas de Youtube.En la parte de abajo del video te dice how to share.
120. JLPR2
Even though 94L is a bit dusty and sad looking it doesn't mean there is an absolute 0% chance of it ever developing, we have seen waves shake off the dust and develop. Is 94L likely to do it? Not really, but it isn't impossible either. I really dislike people that speak in absolutes about the weather, if you can't see the future then you don't know what could happen, it's as simple as that.

Now, the TW emerging is looking healthy, has a good 850mb vort max & decent convection, will SAL break it? Stay tuned for that.

Quoting 111. WeatherfanPR:

I'm trying to share a video from youtube but i don't know how to do it. I need help.
Go to Embed and copy and paste code onto here, don't use image or links. Make sure Use Old Embed Code is checked.

Here I'll show you an example.



my dog!!!!

Quoting 88. FOREX:

It took me a while, but this blog averages an argument every 41 posts. Shameful.


During AGW discussions, this place averages 41 arguments every post.
Quoting 119. prcane4you:

Mia amigo es bien facil,busca las herramientas de Youtube.En la parte de abajo del video te dice how to share.


Mira que anoche traté de mil maneras escribiendo las direcciones que me aparecen incluyendo las embed y nada. Trataré de nuevo. Gracias.


its this exinvest 94L OR the tropical wave back of it.
here...a bunch of you need these....take two...they're small.....

Quoting 101. Grothar:



If you do as you're told there wouldn't be any arguments. You have to remember the following:

Never discuss a wave coming off of Africa
Never give an opinion on the condition of a wave or it's possible future.
Do not ever post a model unless it has been approved by the Secretary of the Interior and the Secretary of Defense.
DO NOT ever post an intensity model until a system is at least already a Cat 4
Unless a system is already names, we are not to discuss it.
Never, ever say a system is looking good. (Leave that for the weather nerds and wishcasters)

What do you think this is; a weather blog?




I respectfully disagree Chief.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yes, but those waves weren't coming off as high in latitude. Remember the ITCZ has to lift north, in the off season it's usually down by 5 N.
There is more dry air and dust further north than near the present location of the ITCZ. Take a look at the dewpoints and winds for the stations in the vicinity of and behind these waves. Every wave now is bringing far more dry air off the coast than moisture. Until that changes, I don't see how the pattern changes.

Quoting 121. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Go to Embed and copy and paste code onto here, don't use image or links. Make sure Use Old Embed Code is checked.

Here I'll show you an example.


Out of all the videos in the world, you have to pick one of the worst.

It could've been at least a weather video. I am disappointed in you, Caleb.
Quoting 121. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Go to Embed and copy and paste code onto here, don't use image or links. Make sure Use Old Embed Code is checked.

Here I'll show you an example.




Thank You!
Quoting 128. sar2401:

There is more dry air and dust further north than near the present location of the ITCZ. Take a look at the dewpoints and winds for the stations in the vicinity of and behind these waves. Every wave now is bringing far more dry air off the coast than moisture. Until that changes, I don't see how the pattern changes.




well, if the SST's in the mid atlantic, upper atlantic, and along the equator line up you are gonna see a change....like levi said it needs to sandwich correctly to end the SAL.....

SST's around Newfoundland and the HoA show this is starting...SST's are increasing in sub latitudes, upper latitudes, and are starting to drop in mid latitudes....so what does the amount of dry air a wet storm has internally coming off of africa have to do with that?

so i am not quite sure what you mean.....
just trying to understand what you said and how that plays into divergence....
Quoting JLPR2:
Even though 94L is a bit dusty and sad looking it doesn't mean there is an absolute 0% chance of it ever developing, we have seen waves shake off the dust and develop. Is 94L likely to do it? Not really, but it isn't impossible either. I really dislike people that speak in absolutes about the weather, if you can't see the future then you don't know what could happen, it's as simple as that.

Now, the TW emerging is looking healthy, has a good 850mb vort max & decent convection, will SAL break it? Stay tuned for that.

If the NHC gives it 0% for 5 days, I'm reasonably certain it won't develop in 5 days. After that, it all depends. If we're lucky, it remains a decent wave and brings you guys some more rain.
Roads and offices are beginning to flood in Baltimore, Maryland
Nothing at this time for the next 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5
days.

$$
Forecaster Avila
136. JRRP
Here's the video of yesterday's little storm in Greater Carrollwood.

Quoting 128. sar2401:

There is more dry air and dust further north than near the present location of the ITCZ. Take a look at the dewpoints and winds for the stations in the vicinity of and behind these waves. Every wave now is bringing far more dry air off the coast than moisture. Until that changes, I don't see how the pattern changes.


That is true, but technically speaking every wave brings some sort of African Dust with it when it comes off the coast. Even in active seasons as well. The issue seems more to be with the stronger and more displaced south A-B High which is bringing a stable air mass to the MDR. I think it was Hurricane Dean that developed when there was a strong SAL. So just my opinion I think the stable air mass is more to blame then the SAL. Although, the SAL could be blamed for the cooler sst.
139. JLPR2
Quoting 132. sar2401:

If the NHC gives it 0% for 5 days, I'm reasonably certain it won't develop in 5 days. After that, it all depends. If we're lucky, it remains a decent wave and brings you guys some more rain.


The NHC never gives anything a 0%, their wording is always "near 0%", but yes, some more rain is welcomed. :)
Quoting odinslightning:


well, if the temperatures in the mid atlantic, upper atlantic, and along the equator line up you are gonna see a change....like levi said it needs to sandwich correctly to end the SAL.....

SST's around Newfoundland and the HoA show this is starting...SST's are increasing in sub latitudes, upper latitudes, and are starting to drop in mid latitudes....so what does the amount of dry air a wet storm has internally coming off of africa have to do with that?

so i am not quite sure what you mean.....
What's an "HoA"?

Do you have some kind of link that shows what you you think is happening is actually happening?

If you're not quite sure how dry air affects a cyclone, I don't know what to tell you.
Bit late but Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting 110. rmbjoe1954:



You are too liberal, Gro!

It should be never post an intensity model unless it's a Cat 5!


I just like to give the benefit of the doubt! :) (This is not to you, joe)

I wish I could write a negative comment each time someone posts something. It would make me feel very good. Embarrassing people on a blog is right there on the top of my bucket list!!

But, I guess I don't do that because maybe some people may be too ill to do much else, or they have a problem they would like forget for awhile and escape. Maybe they are just lonely and feel comfortable on a blog discussing a common interest with strangers who share their interest. I also think that maybe some youngster gets teased in school and he comes here feeling he has something to contribute and makes him feel better for a day.

But, no. There was always that kid who sat behind you in school telling you all the mistakes you were making.

When we lose our compassion we don't only lose our humanity, we steal a bit from someone else's soul. I don't think anyone minds constructive criticism. But just to do it to make ourselves look important, is petty and childish and frankly quite sad.
Quoting 130. WeatherfanPR:



Thank You!
You are welcome.

Quoting 129. Astrometeor:



Out of all the videos in the world, you have to pick one of the worst.

It could've been at least a weather video. I am disappointed in you, Caleb.
Hey now I disagree, she's pretty and she can sing.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5
days.

$$
Forecaster Avila
.
Quoting 140. sar2401:

What's an "HoA"?

Do you have some kind of link that shows what you you think is happening is actually happening?

If you're not quite sure how dry air affects a cyclone, I don't know what to tell you.
HAARP of the Atlantic?
147. MahFL
Quoting 125. hurricanes2018:



its this exinvest 94L OR the tropical wave back of it.


Well that will shake things up a bit !
Quoting 140. sar2401:

What's an "HoA"?

Do you have some kind of link that shows what you you think is happening is actually happening?

If you're not quite sure how dry air affects a cyclone, I don't know what to tell you.


HoA is horn of africa

ummmm, i guess you can look at SST anomaly charts on your own right?
what evidence do i have? NOAA charts....

i do realize what kind of effects both High Pressure (sinking air) and dry air can have on a cyclone.....
i will refrain from saying that i think you meant to insult me, or i should say i will refrain from insulting you back....
149. beell
Quoting 102. StormJunkie:



I think that is the wave behind the wave that just emerged...Or another one behind that. The GFS shows an odd scenario unfolding S of Cape Verde. It has for a few runs now. Shows an 850mb vort meandering S of the Islands, then heading N towards the Cape Verdes before finally beginning a trek to the W or WSW after several days. I'm really not sure what to make of that ATM. There is some persistence to what its showing though.


Monsoon trough. A strong one.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5
days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5
days. that means no more invest 94L to
151. JRRP
152. MahFL
Convection is increasing on ex 94L.
Hailstorm in Canada on Tuesday, 12 August, 2014 at 03:37 (03:37 AM) UTC.
Description
A vicious storm that hit north of Calgary last week has been declared a 'catastrophe event.' The Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) says the hailstorms that nailed Airdrie and area on August 7 and 8 caused more than $25 million damage. Windshields were smashed, house siding pelted and vehicles parked outside at the time were left with huge dents. "Rarely do we see windows being taken out, I haven't seen too many storms where the windows get broken," said Peter Green from Airdrie Autobody. "The storm was just more severe than average, because you see windows, sunroofs even cracking...that's not standard." He estimates that 75 per cent of the cars in Airdrie were damaged by hail from the August storms, as well as during a similar storm on July 17. About half of them are write-offs. "It all depends on the year and the make of your vehicle. If you have a six or seven year old vehicle with say, 150K, chances are it's not going to be repairable." Autobody repair shops have been flooded with calls, and it could take months before they're all repaired. Intact Insurance has set up a special repair centre in Airdrie to deal with all the hail claims. Depending on the insurer, there is usually a two-year time limit for getting a vehicle fixed. However, Green says it could take up to a year for some vehicles to even get looked at, due to the amount of claims.
Quoting 133. Doppler22:

Roads and offices are beginning to flood in Baltimore, Maryland
I'm seeing big puddles outside in my yard with water rushing down the steps.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Long way to go yet but it appears my forecast of 5 to 7 named storms maybe right on the money.


Long way to go yet but it appears my forecast of 9-11 storms, about the same as most Hurricane agencies, maybe right on the money.
Quoting odinslightning:


HoA is horn of africa

ummmm, i guess you can look at SST anomaly charts on your own right?
what evidence do i have? NOAA charts....

i do realize what both High Pressure (sinking air) and dry air can have on a cyclone.....
i will refrain from saying that i think you meant to insult me, or i should say i will refrain from insulting you back....
Not meant as insult at all. Since you're the one talking about some SST sandwich, I assume you've looked at the charts and seen a pattern. I've looked at the charts and don't see a pattern to mid-latitude decreasing while the SST's are increasing in the other latitudes. I'm certainly willing to be corrected if you can show me what you see.



Extreme Weather in Taiwan
on Tuesday, 12 August, 2014 at 07:03 (07:03 AM) UTC.
Description
Torrential rain yesterday forced the Taiwanese city of Kaohsiung to shut schools and offices as floods overwhelmed its sewage system which was severely damaged by gas explosions last month that killed 30 people and injured 300. Residents rushed to pile up sandbags in the two districts where drainage systems were affected by the blasts but many were marooned by the rising waters. At least 180mm of rain fell yesterday morning following weekend downpours which dumped hundreds of millimetres of rain on the southern city. “We’ve deployed dozens of water pumps in the two districts hoping they would help drain the water,” a city government official said. Around 360,000 people live in the two districts, accounting for around 13 percent of the population of Taiwan’s second biggest city. “The flooding over the past few days was caused by the serious damage caused to the sewage systems by the gas explosions,” Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu said. The July 31 explosions in underground industrial pipelines that cross the city sparked massive fires, leaving trenches running down the middle of some streets and throwing vehicles onto the roofs of buildings several stories high. Reconstruction work has ground to a virtual standstill due to the flooding and the Central Weather Bureau warned of more downpours across southern Taiwan until tomorrow, raising fears of further floods. One angry resident told Formosa TV that his home had been flooded several times since last week. The government and local authorities dispute who bears responsibility for failing to monitor the safety of the pipelines that exploded, as well as who should shoulder the massive reconstruction costs.

Quoting 156. sar2401:

Not meant as insult at all. Since you're the one talking about some SST sandwich, I assume you've looked at the charts and seen a pattern. I've looked at the charts and don't see a pattern to mid-latitude decreasing while the SST's are increasing in the other latitudes. I'm certainly willing to be corrected if you can show me what you see.




i believe that is an SST chart
not an SST Anomaly chart.....
Quoting 140. sar2401:

What's an "HoA"?

Do you have some kind of link that shows what you you think is happening is actually happening?

If you're not quite sure how dry air affects a cyclone, I don't know what to tell you.


HoA could be Horn of Africa
Quoting 126. ricderr:

here...a bunch of you need these....take two...they're small.....




Ya got some large ones?? :-)
Quoting 153. Skyepony:

Hailstorm in Canada on Tuesday, 12 August, 2014 at 03:37 (03:37 AM) UTC.
Description
A vicious storm that hit north of Calgary last week has been declared a 'catastrophe event.' The Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) says the hailstorms that nailed Airdrie and area on August 7 and 8 caused more than $25 million damage. Windshields were smashed, house siding pelted and vehicles parked outside at the time were left with huge dents. "Rarely do we see windows being taken out, I haven't seen too many storms where the windows get broken," said Peter Green from Airdrie Autobody. "The storm was just more severe than average, because you see windows, sunroofs even cracking...that's not standard." He estimates that 75 per cent of the cars in Airdrie were damaged by hail from the August storms, as well as during a similar storm on July 17. About half of them are write-offs. "It all depends on the year and the make of your vehicle. If you have a six or seven year old vehicle with say, 150K, chances are it's not going to be repairable." Autobody repair shops have been flooded with calls, and it could take months before they're all repaired. Intact Insurance has set up a special repair centre in Airdrie to deal with all the hail claims. Depending on the insurer, there is usually a two-year time limit for getting a vehicle fixed. However, Green says it could take up to a year for some vehicles to even get looked at, due to the amount of claims.


I've chased some incredible supercells in Canada. They get a ton of them just east of the Canadian Rockies.
There is alot of hail videos from that storm in Canada last week.

Quoting 152. MahFL:

Convection is increasing on ex 94L.
I wouldn't be surprised if when it gets a little further west it is reactivated.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
HAARP of the Atlantic?
LOL
StormWX: I wonder if Grothar was talking about you in the last sentences of his post.

Quoting Grothar:


I just like to give the benefit of the doubt! :) (This is not to you, joe)

I wish I could write a negative comment each time someone posts something. It would make me feel very good. Embarrassing people on a blog is right there on the top of my bucket list!!

But, I guess I don't do that because maybe some people may be too ill to do much else, or they have a problem they would like forget for awhile and escape. Maybe they are just lonely and feel comfortable on a blog discussing a common interest with strangers who share their interest. I also think that maybe some youngster gets teased in school and he comes here feeling he has something to contribute and makes him feel better for a day.

But, no. There was always that kid who sat behind you in school telling you all the mistakes you were making.

When we lose our compassion we don't only lose our humanity, we steal a bit from someone else's soul. I don't think anyone minds constructive criticism. But just to do it to make ourselves look important, is petty and childish and frankly quite sad.
Quoting 152. MahFL:

Convection is increasing on ex 94L.

Won't last very long probably with all the dry air ahead of it.
Quoting Skyepony:
There is alot of hail videos from that storm in Canada last week.

Reminds me of driving behind an Alabama log truck.
Quoting Doppler22:
Roads and offices are beginning to flood in Baltimore, Maryland


What else is new.

not for long!!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Here is one I saw in Wyoming back in June (I had just got this lens, and unfortunately I didn't focus it right)

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
have become a little better organized. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form tonight or on Wednesday while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

invest 99E JUMP up to 60 % and 90% maybe a tropical storm soon
Quoting Hernando44:
StormWX: I wonder if Grothar was talking about you in the last sentences of his post.

It's usually better not ascribe our thoughts to others.
Says who??

Quoting sar2401:
It's usually better not ascribe our thoughts to others.
Quoting 142. Grothar:



I just like to give the benefit of the doubt! :) (This is not to you, joe)

I wish I could write a negative comment each time someone posts something. It would make me feel very good. Embarrassing people on a blog is right there on the top of my bucket list!!

But, I guess I don't do that because maybe some people may be too ill to do much else, or they have a problem they would like forget for awhile and escape. Maybe they are just lonely and feel comfortable on a blog discussing a common interest with strangers who share their interest. I also think that maybe some youngster gets teased in school and he comes here feeling he has something to contribute and makes him feel better for a day.

But, no. There was always that kid who sat behind you in school telling you all the mistakes you were making.

When we lose our compassion we don't only lose our humanity, we steal a bit from someone else's soul. I don't think anyone minds constructive criticism. But just to do it to make ourselves look important, is petty and childish and frankly quite sad.



Just because it needs to be repeated. Thank you.
Tomorrow will be the 10 year anniversary of Hurricane Charley's landfall on Punta Gorda.
Quoting prcane4you:
Mia amigo es bien facil,busca las herramientas de Youtube.En la parte de abajo del video te dice how to share.
I was in Tnez, North Africa a couple of weeks ago, knowing about SAL I was expecting to be inside a cloud of sand, and for my surprice, it was less dusty than in Puert Rico. I figured most of the dust moves west...
Quoting 142. Grothar:


I just like to give the benefit of the doubt! :) (This is not to you, joe)

I wish I could write a negative comment each time someone posts something. It would make me feel very good. Embarrassing people on a blog is right there on the top of my bucket list!!

But, I guess I don't do that because maybe some people may be too ill to do much else, or they have a problem they would like forget for awhile and escape. Maybe they are just lonely and feel comfortable on a blog discussing a common interest with strangers who share their interest. I also think that maybe some youngster gets teased in school and he comes here feeling he has something to contribute and makes him feel better for a day.

But, no. There was always that kid who sat behind you in school telling you all the mistakes you were making.

When we lose our compassion we don't only lose our humanity, we steal a bit from someone else's soul. I don't think anyone minds constructive criticism. But just to do it to make ourselves look important, is petty and childish and frankly quite sad.


Well stated Grothar.

You show wisdom along with common sense all covered with great humor for a Chief Blobologist.

It's great to read your comments here.
Quoting 142. Grothar:



I just like to give the benefit of the doubt! :) (This is not to you, joe)

I wish I could write a negative comment each time someone posts something. It would make me feel very good. Embarrassing people on a blog is right there on the top of my bucket list!!

But, I guess I don't do that because maybe some people may be too ill to do much else, or they have a problem they would like forget for awhile and escape. Maybe they are just lonely and feel comfortable on a blog discussing a common interest with strangers who share their interest. I also think that maybe some youngster gets teased in school and he comes here feeling he has something to contribute and makes him feel better for a day.

But, no. There was always that kid who sat behind you in school telling you all the mistakes you were making.

When we lose our compassion we don't only lose our humanity, we steal a bit from someone else's soul. I don't think anyone minds constructive criticism. But just to do it to make ourselves look important, is petty and childish and frankly quite sad.


Profound and universal wisdom. Weak people have a need to put others down to cover their own weaknesses. Thanks for sharing.
Quoting 176. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Tomorrow will be the 10 year anniversary of Hurricane Charley's landfall on Punta Gorda.
Charley..What a nightmare.
Quoting 180. hydrus:

Charley..What a nightmare.
sure was, i was so lucky that storm missed me