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Drought predicted to continue though April; record low Lake Michigan water levels

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:14 PM GMT on January 18, 2013

Rain and snow from the a series of winter storms that have swept across the nation so far in 2013 have put only a slight dent in the Great Drought of 2012 - 2013, and the drought is likely to extend at least until late April, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report and NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued Thursday. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought began 2013 at 61%, and is almost unchanged as of January 15, at 59%. According to NOAA's monthly State of the Drought report, the drought peaked during July 2012, when 61.8% of the contiguous U.S. was covered by moderate or greater drought. This made the 2012 drought the greatest U.S. drought since the Dust Bowl year of 1939, when 62.1% of the U.S. was in drought. The 2013 drought will maintain its grip over the U.S. into February, according to the latest 15-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model, which predicts a much below-average chance of precipitation across the large majority of the drought region during the next two weeks. These dry conditions will continue to cause problems for shipping on the Mississippi River, where barge traffic has been limited by near-record low water. However, the river level at St. Louis has risen about a foot since the beginning of the year, and the Army Corps of Engineers blasted away rock formations on the river bottom near Thebes, Illinois over the past two weeks, which should allow limited barge traffic to continue on the river at least through the end of January. The Corps now believes that will be able to keep shipping on the Mississippi River open into the summer. The latest NOAA river level forecast calls for the river to fall below -5' by January 30, which would be one of the five lowest water levels on record for St. Louis.


Figure 1. Predicted 7-day precipitation for the period ending on Friday, January 25. Less than 10% of the U.S. drought regions are predicted to receive as much as 0.5" of precipitation (dark green color.) Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. NOAA's January 17 Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to persist over at least 70% of the U.S. drought area through the end of April. The drought is expected to ease some along its northern and eastern edges, but new areas of drought are predicted to develop over Texas, California, and the Southeast U.S.


Figure 3. The latest NOAA river level forecast calls for the Mississippi River to fall below -5' by January 30. The river's lowest level on record, -6.2', occurred in January 1940, after the great Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s.

Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time record low water levels for January
Low water is also a problem on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. After setting an all-time record low for the month of December, water levels have continued to fall, are are now 1" below the record-lowest January water level, observed in January 1965, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. Water levels on Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, and Lake Superior are predicted to fall 1 - 2" over the next month, due to below average precipitation. Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are already at 576.0', so if this forecast verifies, they will set the record for their all-time monthly level, the 576.05' level of March 1964. Lake Superior is still 6" above its all-time low water level, so will not set a new record. Below average ice cover, which allows increased evaporation, is contributing to the low water levels. The low ice cover is due to the record warm year of 2012, which has left the lakes 2 - 3°C above average in temperature, as of January 8. Barges on the lakes are being forced to carry reduced loads due to the low water. Great Lakes water level data goes back to 1918.


Figure 4. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time December monthly low during December 2012, beating the record set in 1964. The predicted water levels for January - March call for record lows all three months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.

Long-term drought outlook
NOAA's January 17 Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to persist over at least 70% of the U.S. drought area through the end of April. The drought is expected to ease some along its northern and eastern edges, but new areas of drought are predicted to develop over Texas, California, and the Southeast U.S. I don't see any signs of a shift in the fundamental large-scale atmospheric flow patterns coming, and it is good bet that drought will be a huge concern as we enter spring. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts an increased chance of drier than average conditions over southwestern portions of the drought region during the coming three months. In general, droughts are more likely in the Midwest U.S. when warmer than average ocean temperatures prevail in the tropical Atlantic, with cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific (La Niña-like conditions.) This is what we had in during most of 2012, and continue to have in 2013. In fact, the equatorial tropical Pacific has cooled in recent weeks to 0.6°C below average (as of January 14). This is similar to the ocean temperatures seen in the spring of 2012, just before the Great Drought of 2012 began. Most of the U.S. drought region needs 3 - 9" of precipitation to pull out of drought.

Drought links:
My post on Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger discussed how drought is our greatest threat from climate change.

Ricky Rood blogs about the Dust Bowl

Wunderground weather news
Wunderground's Angela Fritz has put together a weather news feature that provides a selection of recent media articles on major global weather events. For example, Sydney, Australia's biggest city, set it's all-time heat record today, with the temperature peaking at 45.8 degrees Celsius (114.4 Fahrenheit). The old record, of 45.3 C (113.5 Fahrenheit), was set in January 1939. Also, heavy snow hit Britain today, and a dock from Japan showed up on the coast of Washington.

Featured blogger Lee Grenci has a new post today on the incredibly intense 932 mb low that affected the Aleutian Islands yesterday.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters
Old Mission
Old Mission
Low water level at Old Mission Lighthouse. View taken from Lighthouse. In 1986 the water level was at the green area just in front of the sunbathers. On 45th. parallel 18 miles north of Traverse City, Michigan on the tip of Old Mission Peninsula.

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting nymore:
Your respected journal as you say in line number one is what a week old with one article published. How much respect could they have garnered in this time period. It was rejected by a journal with a history over 115 years long.
Scitechnol--the publisher of GIGS--has been around for many years, and has published tens of thousands of articles over hundreds of issues of its hundreds of publications. That's respect.
Quoting nymore:
I have another question why not fix it and send it back to JGR after all they are the ones who rejected it.
I was involved last year with a paper submitted to and rejected by Nature. Not because of any technical flaws, but simply because Nature is--as JGR is--a very popular journal, and thus receives far more articles than it can possibly publish in a given time. And since the article with which I was involved was time-sensitive--as are the BEST results--the decision was made to publish elsewhere.
Quoting nymore:
Then you try to bring in a strawman argument about Watts who has nothing to do with JGR or this new journal.
It's not, of course, a strawman argument when, during a discussion of a climate science study, to wonder whether a very vocal contrarian will finally abide by a public promise made regarding that very study. (A far better example of a strawman argument would be, say, diverting focus from an article in a journal to talk only about that journal's age. Now that's a diversion.)

Now: do you have anything to say about the actual study? If so, I'd be happy to read it.
Still 24-21 SF fumbled at the 1 and Atlanta recovered it.
For Nashville, TN, my weekly forecast.

Edit: What I mean by my is my area, this is a product of the NWS.

............................best chance of rain..Friday
SF 28-Atl 24
Might be freeze warnings mid-week north florida..........
for Wash.D.C..........................THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET OR SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.
Quoting pottery:

You now have 13 bags of good nutrients for your garden.
Just place the leaves in a corner of the yard, and next summer use them as manure.

They are filled with all the nutrient that the trees have been sucking out of the ground.
Put it all back and the garden and trees will love you. :):))


In many windy dry places this will not work without added attention. Leaves are high carbon and need a bit of nitrogen and definitely some moisture to decompose. I have a lot of trashpicked five gallon buckets with quarter inch holes drilled in the bottom. I mix used coffee grounds with rinse water and this gets things moving along quite nicely. When the leaves have rotted partially they can then be dug in or recomposted or used as mulch. Coffee grounds are about one percent nitrogen. The buckets can also be used as planters and since white reflects heat they are good for hot climates.
will chicago break that 1-inch snowfall record?...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

PAZ007>009-210515-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0003.130121T1700Z-130123T1100Z/
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHARON...HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...
GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...
TIONESTA
409 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO
6 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW OF AN INCH OR LESS IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...SNOW INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
FALL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TUESDAY AND
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SF 28-Atl 24 FINAL
Quoting PedleyCA:
SF 28-Atl 24 FINAL

Hopefully the Ravens win the next game so we can have Harbaugh Bowl.
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE #73
_________________________

For in Honor to Martin Luther King Jr...
SE New England snow



Click picture for 4x larger size...
Just went to the store.... NOBODY on the road in SE PA....
Quoting Bluestorm5:

Hopefully the Ravens win the next game so we can have Harbaugh Bowl.


I hope not. I need to get at least one right.
Quoting islander101010:
mavericks surf contest is a go for today large long period waves are expected. could be some freak extra large sets too. hope no one meets their end.
Quoting Xulonn:
Photobucket
Thanks for the notice. Although I don't surf, I am an avid surf/wave watcher. Until I retired last year to the mountains of western Panama, I lived in coastal northern California and used to check for significant wave heights in the winter and go to the coast when the waves were likely to be breaking against the rocks spectacularly.

Although the stormsurfing.com LINK report does not show HUGE waves, the break is forecast to be about 30', and the favored "long-period" swells can build up to much higher breaks. In this case, the swells are probably from peak of that monster North Pacific storm that formed last week northeast of Japan.

The swells must be coming from the right direction to "activate" the break over the unique bottom contour that creates the offshore Mavericks surf.

Here's hoping that they get some good, clean waves, and some spectacular rides.

(Interestingly, the surf forecast for SW Ireland at the same time is for over 40'. If you haven't seen pictures and movies of big-wave surfing in Ireland, Google it. They get some very thick, heavy monster waves in that relatively unknown surfing region.)
Watch the Maverick's Invitational Live here

Edit: Event is over now.

Swell is running around 8ft @ 20 seconds. Could see some waves about 2.5 times that height for the largest sets. This same swell is coming from the massive 932mb low that bombed off Japan several days ago.
Mean Temperature 61 °F 55 °F
Max Temperature 77 °F 67 °F 85 °F (2009)
Min Temperature 45 °F 44 °F 24 °F (1948)

made it to 77 at the Airport (KRAL) 74.5 here....
Miami NWS Disco

BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY
MORNING OR EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, BIG DIFFERENCES ABOUND ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND EACH ARE HOLDING FIRM ON THEIR OWN DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS. ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEP, MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND AIMS
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR TOWARDS FLORIDA, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
COLD BLAST TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TEMPS BARELY RISING ON COLD AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY, THEN TUMBLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF SOLUTION POINTS TO A FREEZE
POTENTIAL SUN-MON MORNING FOR THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THE GFS
CONTINUES RUN AFTER RUN TO BE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE...NOT CARVING
OUT AS DEEP OF A TROUGH AND HENCE NOT NEARLY AS COLD HERE WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR BYPASSING SOUTH FL JUST OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. 850 MB TEMPS ARE SOME 10C DEGREES WARMER SUN
MORNING ON THE LATEST 12Z GFS RUN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUN. GFS
DOES BRING COOLER AIR IN A "BACK-DOOR" STYLE SAT NIGHT-SUN, BUT
NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE ECMWF. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT WAS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND HAS BEEN KEPT DUE
TO VERY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Disco

BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY
MORNING OR EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, BIG DIFFERENCES ABOUND ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND EACH ARE HOLDING FIRM ON THEIR OWN DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS. ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEP, MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND AIMS
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR TOWARDS FLORIDA, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
COLD BLAST TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TEMPS BARELY RISING ON COLD AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY, THEN TUMBLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF SOLUTION POINTS TO A FREEZE
POTENTIAL SUN-MON MORNING FOR THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THE GFS
CONTINUES RUN AFTER RUN TO BE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE...NOT CARVING
OUT AS DEEP OF A TROUGH AND HENCE NOT NEARLY AS COLD HERE WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR BYPASSING SOUTH FL JUST OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. 850 MB TEMPS ARE SOME 10C DEGREES WARMER SUN
MORNING ON THE LATEST 12Z GFS RUN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUN. GFS
DOES BRING COOLER AIR IN A "BACK-DOOR" STYLE SAT NIGHT-SUN, BUT
NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE ECMWF. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT WAS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND HAS BEEN KEPT DUE
TO VERY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED.


I disagree :)
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 6:00 PM EST Sunday 20 January 2013
Condition: Mainly Clear
Pressure: 30.1 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 19.2°F
Dewpoint: 5.4°F
Humidity: 54 %
Wind: WNW 18 gust 25 mph
Wind Chill: 4
Quoting Grothar:


I disagree :)


You quoted that whole thing just to say " I disagree"...Geez...Waste of blog space...huh
Keeps...I wanna see some of that blue in south Florida...Please get to work on that. Thank you!
Sensei in the House...
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 7:00 PM EST Sunday 20 January 2013
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.1 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 18.5°F
Dewpoint: 6.6°F
Humidity: 59 %
Wind: W 11 mph
Wind Chill: 6
Getting a bit nippy there Keep....
they are forecasting a low of 16 tonight i dunno may get colder its already 18.5 and its only 7 pm
GO Ravens!!


And cold air too!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Keeps...I wanna see some of that blue in south Florida...Please get to work on that. Thank you!


noooo, go to winter don't bring it to you... I'm in between you and coldness :(

Hey Doug, missed ya this morning, good evening sir!
Quoting indianrivguy:


noooo, go to winter don't bring it to you... I'm in between you and coldness :(

Hey Doug, missed ya this morning, good evening sir!



Good eve back at cha! I was on briefly like I am most mornings. I try to follow what's going on here and get my weather updates in the am. Ravens, 7-3
Lots of snow for Europe tonight... I read on the news yesterday that most of it was forcast to hit France and southern Belgium after tearing through the UK, but here in Amsterdam it has been steadily snowing with serious gusts of wind since last night. Only thing that changed is the winds died down in the last 3-4 hours, and the snow is beginning to really drop, I estimate 5-6 inches easy so far, with much larger drifts...

Can someone with more links at their disposal maybe find a recent satellite photo from this afternoon that shows Benelux and the region... or something of the kind?
Quoting indianrivguy:


noooo, go to winter don't bring it to you... I'm in between you and coldness :(

Hey Doug, missed ya this morning, good evening sir!


I've been waving a blanket toward the East, keeping the cold core away from here ... Dakota, Minnesota, "Sconsin... THEY can have it!
Current temperatures across this part of the world...

Had to add a -40F to my color scale in preparation of the temperatures across North Dakota and Minnesota tonight.

'Strongest evidence yet to there being life on Mars'

Link
Excellent job Tropical, very nice color scheme going there. +1
I read the article, however, we have long known that rocks and water have existed on Mars. And we also know that liquid water once was flowing. Their hypothesis doesn't figure to any increase in expectations on life on Mars.

Quoting MontanaZephyr:
'Strongest evidence yet to there being life on Mars'


8:10 PM EST UPDATE
_____________
Well, saw some snowfall increments for northern, NJ...Eastern PA and NYC.
Expanded the 3-6" shade westwards to cover more of Long Island, and southeastern New England.
Also added white shade for coastal Mass.



More updates if there are significant changes
Click pic for loop.

Brrrr...!
Quoting Skyepony:
Click pic for loop.



Hi, check your e-mail... I sent you one of my works...

Im still looking though my pile of work for the Igor crossshatch...


izzojiggawatz Isaac Diener
@reedtimmerTVN Look what 60 mph winds and an Arctic cold front does to the Lake Winnebago shoreline in Wisconsin. #wiwx pic.twitter.com/RhdjoKQF
Little bit of snow up here Tuesday, more on Cape Cod:



Go Patriots!
Are there any 'current snow coverage' maps available for Europe, anywhere online? Or maybe forecasts?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current temperatures across this part of the world...

Had to add a -40F to my color scale in preparation of the temperatures across North Dakota and Minnesota tonight.



good job...!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Little bit of snow up here Tuesday, more on Cape Cod:



Go Patriots!!


So far so good. Ravens can be tough. Been a Pats fan since Steve Grogan.
There are ridiculously cold wind chills across the northern Plains right now.

Ravens score!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Scitechnol--the publisher of GIGS--has been around for many years, and has published tens of thousands of articles over hundreds of issues of its hundreds of publications. That's respect.I was involved last year with a paper submitted to and rejected by Nature. Not because of any technical flaws, but simply because Nature is--as JGR is--a very popular journal, and thus receives far more articles than it can possibly publish in a given time. And since the article with which I was involved was time-sensitive--as are the BEST results--the decision was made to publish elsewhere.It's not, of course, a strawman argument when, during a discussion of a climate science study, to wonder whether a very vocal contrarian will finally abide by a public promise made regarding that very study. (A far better example of a strawman argument would be, say, diverting focus from an article in a journal to talk only about that journal's age. Now that's a diversion.)

Now: do you have anything to say about the actual study? If so, I'd be happy to read it.


Responded to over at Ricky's blog
Current snow/ice coverage
Wondering what's up with the KHGX radar in Houston area?

The winds are blowing outside right now.I'm not sure they'll die down over night.I went back down town today.Another beautiful day by the water in George town.We could see a few flakes Monday.Going to be cold cold colllllld on Tuesday!.Highs only in the low twenties with wind chills in the single digits to below zero at times.Brrrr.But this is what winter is all about!.We have another chance of snow thu-sat.
This is always nice to walk out in.

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY...

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY.

* DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 40 TO 50 BELOW
ZERO RANGE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

Frostbite will occur in about 5 to 10 minutes at these temperatures.
we have warnings flying
for alot of the country tonight



Quoting nymore:
This is always nice to walk out in.

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY...

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY.

* DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 40 TO 50 BELOW
ZERO RANGE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

Frostbite will occur in about 10 minutes at those temperatures.


-40 to -50F... long time I didn't see those there since 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we have warnings flying
for alot of the country tonight





how come not for Alberta?
Thanks for the snowmaps Skyepony! Has it been a colder than usual winter so far, cause I get the feeling that's a lot of ice and snow coverage... Ice seems to be approaching the coast of northern Iceland (pardon the pun) and also around the Kuril Islands?

Is that the case every year or?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


-40 to -50F... long time I didn't see those there since 2009


Current conditions are.

-12F with a windchill of -34F and it is only 8pm it will be brutal tonight. Tomorrow forecast high is -13 with a windchill of about -50 at times.

Quoting nymore:


Current conditions are.

-12F with a windchill of -34F and it only 8pm it will be brutal tonight. Tomorrow forecast high is -13 with a windchill of about -50 at times.


I would like to map that but it's too difficult
TWC should name the next cold front winter storm RAVEN!
Quoting skycycle:
Thanks for the snowmaps Skyepony! Has it been a colder than usual winter so far, cause I get the feeling that's a lot of ice and snow coverage... Ice seems to be approaching the coast of northern Iceland (pardon the pun) and also around the Kuril Islands?

Is that the case every year or?


I have understood this to be a warmer winter up to this point. As for ice extent, I can recall some years with ice extending to close to the Aleutian Islands and the Northern coast of Europe.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
TWC should name the next cold front winter storm RAVEN!


well, if they ever do it would be Jove... go alphabetically
Well I'm glad the sissy Washingtonians will be getting what they deserve when the bone chilling cold returns.They were out in full force today due to the warm temps.But they will gladly be fixed and will face reality.Ha ha!.
Quoting Astrometeor:


I have understood this to be a warmer winter up to this point. As for ice extent, I can recall some years with ice extending to close to the Aleutian Islands and the Northern coast of Europe.


here is a comparsing map of ice coverage 2012/2013 same time





faster and faster
Nice week coming up for West Palm Beach...Hope it does turn cooler towards the end of the week...

south pole



compare date same 2012/2013
nino/nina regions




compare same day 2012/2013
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wondering what's up with the KHGX radar in Houston area?



got an anim gif of that

weird strange spooky

maybe birds lots and lots of birds

just a false echo

Thanks for all of these... so we are a bit behind Ice on the North Pole, but the South is doing a lot better than last year, from what I can see...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nino/nina regions




compare same day 2012/2013
Here she comes.....AGAIN!
Quoting Civicane49:


southern tropical atlantic running higher when compared to this time last year


even north atlantic temps are warmer compared to last jan this time


Turn out the lights the parties over. You don't make mistakes against the Ravens.
Quoting 900MB:
Bizarreness! 50 degrees with a nice shot of flurries here in NYC! Highest temp by far that I've ever seen snow flurries. We have wind gusting in the 40's, perhaps a downdraft is allowing the flurries to make it all the way to the surface as snow? Ideas? Arctic front on our doorstep.



Really? I've never heard of anything like that. That must have to involve incredibly steep surface lapse rates for that to happen. Consider yourself extremely lucky!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
even north atlantic temps are warmer compared to last jan this time


The water is nice and toasty.Just waiting for a storm to come and use it eventually.Its getting all boiled up and ready...
Quoting Jedkins01:



Really? I've never heard of anything like that. That must have to involve incredibly steep surface lapse rates for that to happen. Consider yourself extremely lucky!
we had same thing happen at 330 this morning 45 outside thunder lightening snow winds to near 90 kmh 350am done and temps of 33 at surface 12 degree drop in 20 mins inch and a half of snow cover
winds howl till noon now picking up once again but not like last night
whats your temp?
Quoting PedleyCA:
whats your temp?
waiting on the 10 pm update i say 17 chill of 4
local highway conditions cam shot

It's back......




Loop 1

Loop 2

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 10:53 am EST on Monday 21 January 2013

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Karumba to Cape York,
including Mornington Island.

At 10:00 am EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
140 kilometres northeast of Mornington Island and
175 kilometres west southwest of Kowanyama and
moving east at 17 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving east, turning more northeast
later today. It will continue to intensify and is expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone this afternoon or evening. This system will most likely cross
the coast between Aurukun and Kowanyama tonight or Tuesday morning.
Gales may develop between Karumba and Cape York, including Mornington Island,
this afternoon or evening.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding is likely in areas between Karumba and
Torres Strait, including Mornington Island, today and will persist into Tuesday.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, a storm tide is expected in coastal areas
between about Kowanyama and Weipa. Large waves may produce minor flooding
along the foreshore. People living in areas that may possibly be affected by
this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as
possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Abnormally high tides are otherwise expected to occur about all remaining parts
along the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, but the sea level should not exceed the
highest tide of the year.
Large waves are also likely along the beachfront in coastal areas between Weipa
and Torres Strait.

People between Karumba and Cape York, including Mornington Island, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.8 degrees South 140.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST Monday 21 January.


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0043 UTC 21/01/2013
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 140.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east [097 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
12: 21/1200: 15.0S 141.6E: 040 [070]: 035 [065]: 994
24: 22/0000: 14.4S 142.6E: 065 [120]: 025 [045]: 998
36: 22/1200: 14.3S 143.8E: 085 [155]: 020 [035]: 1000
48: 23/0000: 15.1S 144.0E: 105 [190]: 020 [035]: 1000
60: 23/1200: 16.3S 143.6E: 120 [225]: 020 [035]: 1000
72: 24/0000: 17.4S 143.3E: 140 [265]: 020 [035]: 1000
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.45 degree wrap on a log 10
spiral. DT is 2.5. MET not used as the system was over land 24 hours ago. FT
based on DT.

The tropical low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12
to 18 hours as the system is situated over the warm waters of the Gulf of
Carpentaria in a low to moderate wind shear environment. A NE'ly component to
steering is expected to develop, partly as a result of Fujiwara interaction with
a weaker low in the Coral Sea.

Keep, it is 18/3



This is from Northern Calif. It is a wunder photo.....
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 PM EST Sunday 20 January 2013
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.1 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 18.0°F
Dewpoint: 9.0°F
Humidity: 67 %
Wind: W 15 mph
Wind Chill: 4
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
local highway conditions cam shot


Hey Mate! Do you have any links to cams in Toronto. My wife's nephew lives there.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The water is nice and toasty.Just waiting for a storm to come and use it eventually.Its getting all boiled up and ready...


Rocket Fuel!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Mate! Do you have any links to cams in Toronto. My wife's nephew lives there.


here is a goverment operated one everything ya need here

Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
even north atlantic temps are warmer compared to last jan this time




And also the MDR.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wondering what's up with the KHGX radar in Houston area?


Nothing wrong with the radar... looks like super-refraction. If so, it's caused by the state of the atmosphere, not something wrong with the NEXRAD.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Rocket Fuel!
In waiting...
My Sisters Place
North-Eastern Wis,
Now
Clear
Clear
Temperature
-5 °F
Feels Like -18 °F
Wind(mph)
6

Brrrrrrrrr.
Maybe we will see beautiful Cape Verde systems like in 2010. Especially like Danielle love that one:)
Hi Aussie...

I knew the storm there wasn't going to give up...
Quoting allancalderini:
Maybe we will see beautiful Cape Verde systems like in 2010. Especially like Danielle love that one:)
Yes.I want to see some beautiful majors out in the Atlantic this year.2012 was just pathetic when it came to that.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Nothing wrong with the radar... looks like super-refraction. If so, it's caused by the state of the atmosphere, not something wrong with the NEXRAD.
Thanks for the answer. It was odd since it wasn't appearing in other radar sites.
Good Night All - Stay Warm - Stay Safe - Sleep Well
.7 degrees from our forecasted low still 8 hrs till daylight to go

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 PM EST Sunday 20 January 2013
Condition: Clear
Pressure: 30.1 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 16.7°F
Dewpoint: 8.8°F
Humidity: 70 %
Wind: W 14 mph
Wind Chill: 3
Quoting nymore:
Your respected journal as you say in line number one is what a week old with one article published. How much respect could they have garnered in this time period. It was rejected by a journal with a history over 115 years long. I have another question why not fix it and send it back to JGR after all they are the ones who rejected it. Then you try to bring in a strawman argument about Watts who has nothing to do with JGR or this new journal. It is fun to watch you squirm though.


ny - the paper didn't say anything new.

The Koch bros funded the study by a highly skeptical scientist with the expectations that he'd find a fatal flaw in the science.

He and his group studied long and hard. They were good, honest scientists and reported that they found the opposite of what the Koch's wanted. They found out that what other climate scientists were saying was correct. The planet is warming and humans are causing it.

That's old news for science. It's nothing more than a replication study and those rarely get journal space, at least in the more important journals. You need to bring something new and important to get a top publication spot.

It's big news at a political level. That was pretty much the last credible scientist left on the denier side. Even the South Alabama guys are agreeing that the climate is warming.

It's a study that needs publicity because of that, but it adds almost nothing to the larger body of evidence.

The one thousandth person to discover aspirin helps headaches doesn't make the news....
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL LOW 07U
1:51 PM EST January 21 2013
===========================================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 15.8S 140.6E or 180 km northeast of Mornington Island and 125 km west southwest of Kowanyama has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 7 knots.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving east, turning more northeast later today. It will continue to intensify and is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone this afternoon or evening. This system will most likely cross the coast between Aurukun and Kowanyama tonight or Tuesday morning. Gales may develop between Karumba and Cape York, including Mornington Island, this afternoon or evening.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding is likely in areas between Karumba and Torres Strait, including Mornington Island, today and will persist into Tuesday.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, a storm tide is expected in coastal areas between about Kowanyama and Weipa. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas that may possibly be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Abnormally high tides are otherwise expected to occur about all remaining parts along the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, but the sea level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are also likely along the beachfront in coastal areas between Weipa and Torres Strait.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Karumba to Cape York, including Mornington Island.
608. BobChecks 4:22 AM GMT on January 21, 2013
In case you haven't found it, there is some continued discussion of that paper in Ricky Rood's wublog comments.
611. BtnTx
Global warming: ok we will all fry and it is our fault. why do we have to keep on and on about it?
There is an eye-like feature developing on the tropical low over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria seen on recent visible imagery. The system would strengthen slightly more before making landfall shortly.



Tropical Cyclone Ten is forecast to slowly intensify during the next few days as it moves east-southeastward. The system is bringing some effects to Samoa but is not anticipated to threaten other land areas. If the cyclone intensifies further, it should be named Garry.

Tropical Cyclone Ten situated northwest of Samoa:

Radar image of the Gulf of Carpentaria:

There are now 130 days left until the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season starts.
Quoting Civicane49:
There are now 130 days left until the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season starts.


I remember the old twc site used to have the countdown by the second...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.I want to see some beautiful majors out in the Atlantic this year.2012 was just pathetic when it came to that.
2011 was not a star either.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE OSWALD, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
4:43 PM EST January 21 2013
===========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Oswald (992 hPa) located at 15.6S 141.1E or 260 km south southwest of Aurukun and 70 km west of Kowanyama has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Oswald, a category 1 cyclone, has formed in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria. Tropical Cyclone Oswald is expected to continue moving northeast and remain a category 1 cyclone before crossing the coast between Aurukun and Kowanyama tonight.

Gales with gusts to 50 knots are occurring on the coast around Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw, and are expected to extend northward towards Aurukun as the cyclone approaches.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding is likely in areas between Karumba and Torres Strait, including Mornington Island, today and will persist into Tuesday.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, a storm tide is expected in coastal areas between about Kowanyama and Weipa. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas that may possibly be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Abnormally high tides are otherwise expected to occur about all remaining parts along the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, but the sea level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are also likely along the beachfront in coastal areas between Weipa and Torres Strait.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Karumba to Cape York.


Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.5S 142.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 13.9S 143.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 15.5S 144.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 17.4S 143.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.7 degree wrap on a log 10 spiral. DT is 3.0. MET not used as the system was over land 24 hours ago. FT based on DT.

Northeast movement is expected to continue until landfall. Some numerical guidance indicates more north northeasterly movement after 6 hours, but will assume this occurs after landfall at this stage.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 08U
12:26 PM WST January 21 2013
===========================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1004 hPa) located at 18.2S 122.3E or 30 km south southeast of Broome and 455 km east northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 7 knots.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday as it moves to the west southwest off the Pilbara coastline. Gales are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, but if the system does reach cyclone intensity then gales could develop between Pardoo and Onslow on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Pardoo to Onslow, including Port Hedland
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F)
17:00 PM FST January 21 2013
======================================

Gale Watch For American Samoa

At 5:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (995 hPa) located near 11.3S 172.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 14 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved significantly in past 6 hours. Primary band trying wrap around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region and in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good in the eastern semi-circle of system but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface tempearture is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 spiral, yielding DT=3.0, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and moves it eastward with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 11.5S 171.5W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 11.6S 170.7W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 11.7S 169.5W - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Oswald on the Australian scale:

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F)
18:00 PM FST January 21 2013
======================================

GALE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (995 hPa) located near 11.2S 172.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 15 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved significantly past 6 hours. Primary band trying to wrap around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region and in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good in the eastern semicircle of system but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap on log 10 spiral, yielding DT=3.0. MET=3.0 and PT=3.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it eastwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 11.3S 171.3W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 11.4S 170.5W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 11.6S 169.5W - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Cyclone Garry:

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW 08U
3:02 PM WST January 21 2013
===========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1002 hPa) located at 18.4S 122.0E or 55 km south southwest of Broome and 415 km east northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday as it moves to the west southwest off the Pilbara coastline. Gales are not expected in coastal
areas within the next 24 hours, but if the system does reach cyclone intensity then gales with wind gusts to 55 knots could develop between Pardoo and Dampier on Wednesday morning possibly extending west to Onslow later in the day.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Pardoo to Onslow, including Port Hedland and Karratha
Invest 93S could become a tropical cyclone in the next few days off the northwestern Australian coast:



Good Morning Folks!!..Blogs Coffee is perked, grab a cup or two..have a Great day everyone
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


here is a goverment operated one everything ya need here

Link


Thanks mate
7-day for the Tampa bay area....................
This is more like it. Game on 2013

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hi Aussie...

I knew the storm there wasn't going to give up...


The BOM gave up on it as it was headed inland, the cold front that passed my place on Friday picked up the Low and brought it back to the GOC. Weather, it's always changing.
TC Oswald is making landfall right now. on the coast between Delta Downs and Pormpuraaw.





Quoting BtnTx:
Global warming: ok we will all fry and it is our fault. why do we have to keep on and on about it?


Simple. Because we do not fry but it is our fault. Our children and grandchildren fry because we refuse to give up this mad rush to burn up all the fossil fuels on the planet to satisfy our whimsical, corporate-managed desires and to make a few people very rich. When one actually stops throwing around the cliches and examines what all this extra CO2 is going to do the climate our descendents have to live in, it forces a change in lifestyle. Like the great sadness that came from the CT elementary school shooting. It is hard to look a 4 year old child in the eye when you know in your heart you are messing up their world. You change.

I keep on and on to help more people realize and act on that.
642. VR46L
@494. aspectre

I sent you a WUMail with the required links.




Good Luck Folks
Cyclone Oswald making landfall
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
459 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-212200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
459 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND COULD REACH 20 KNOTS BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
COLD AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO INLAND AREAS OF THE NATURE COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE COOL AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS ALONG THE BEACHES.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND
ENHANCED SEAS BETWEEN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. WINDS ON TUESDAY
COULD APPROACH 15 MPH RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON



Happy MLKing day all. Enjoy the parades and remember what he stood for. I gotta go to work. Drag.


Jet Stream..


Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie, if you're still on. Slept in until 6:30 as today is a day off for me. A cool 40 degrees here this morning, though it should warm up into the 60's later today.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Cyclone Oswald making landfall


That's old news. lol
Quoting PedleyCA:
SF 28-Atl 24 FINAL
FYI.... Both of the Harbaugh brothers grew up in my hometown of Xenia Ohio... Their father Jack was football coach at Xenia High school... They lived the next street over from me... My cousin ML babysat both of them when they were young boys....
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH...AND BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE-HALF MILE. MELTING FROM ANY SNOW SHOWER
COULD QUICKLY ICE OVER AS ARCTIC AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
snow spreading into the northeast............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPS BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES AT
TIMES TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY MORNING...

MAZ005-013-017-020-RIZ001>008-211715-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0003.130121T2100Z-130122T1500Z/
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...TAUNTON...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
411 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND AND ALL OF RHODE
ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A NARROW SWATH OF 3 TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT. THE SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY
TONIGHT AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POOR AT TIMES. THE TUESDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR MAY BE IMPACTED.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.
Good morning. Wind chills are as low as 50 below zero in northern MN and ND this morning, that's dangerous stuff.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
FYI.... Both of the Harbaugh brothers grew up in my hometown of Xenia Ohio... Their father Jack was football coach at Xenia High school... They lived the next street over from me... My cousin ML babysat both of them when they were young boys....
Dad Jack was coach way back in 1966....

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOWFALL FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Dad Jack was coach way back in 1966....





Thanks for the nugget, PBW. Was not aware of the brothers growing up there. That's pretty cool.

Weren't you the one that survived the infamous Xenia, Ohio F5 tornado back in 1974?? You were a little girl then just getting out of school, right?? That must have been an absolute fright. Something you'll remember forever, I'm sure.

Good morning, by the way. Great to see you blogging!




BIG SNOWSTORM HERE....URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-212245-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130123T1200Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.WC.Y.0001.130122T0300Z-130122T1600Z/
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVIL LE
944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE SLOW AND HAZARDOUS WITH HIGHLY
VARIABLE ROAD CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...4 TO 20 ABOVE.
Good morning everyone, I have been getting off and on lake effect snow bands this morning giving me minor accumulations. This is to be expected for the next few days. Just heard from my cousin in Minneapolis, a wind chills of -30F is not good.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-08 3-220915-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWAS SEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LE NAWEE-MONROE-
346 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE AROUND
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN M-59 AND I-94 CORRIDORS.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ZERO AND 5
ABOVE...LEADING TO WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIND CHILLS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO...AS
HIGHS ONLY REACH AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

LATER THIS WEEK...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$
Quoting TomballTXPride:





Thanks for the nugget, PBW. Was not aware of the brothers growing up there. That's pretty cool.

Weren't you the one that survived the infamous Xenia, Ohio F5 tornado back in 1974?? You were a little girl then just getting out of school, right?? That must have been an absolute fright. Something you'll remember forever, I'm sure.

Good morning, by the way. Great to see you blogging!




Tomball......Worse day of my life.... Lost a few friends also
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Tomball......Worse day of my life.... Lost a few friends also




Gee. Sorry to hear that, PBW.



Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F)
0:00 AM FST January 22 2013
======================================

STORM WATCH FOR AMERICAN SAMOA

GALE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (995 hPa) located near 11.9S 171.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 11 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Overall organization remains good. Deep convection persistent near low level circulation center past 6 hours. Primary band trying to wrap around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Outflow good in the eastern semicircle of system. Garry is being steered eastwards by westerly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 spiral, giving DT=3.0, MET=3.0, and PT=3.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it eastwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 12.0S 170.3W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.2S 169.1W - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 12.6S 167.3W - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET January 21 2013
===================================

Over southern Africa, an inland low has evolved for several days by generating heavy rainfalls over widespread areas: Botswana, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa (130 mm reported at 00z over the last 12 hours at Thohoyandou, South Africa) and southwestern Mozambique. Surface obs and visible satellite imagery allow to locate at 1000Z a low estimated at 1003 hPa near 23.8S 33.8E moving east southeastward at 15 knots.

The minimum should reach waters of the Mozambique channel tonight. Convective activity is strong inland over the low, but oversea also in the south-eastern semi-circle of the system. Upper level divergence is very good poleward near the Subtropical Jet and cold air exists within high level in the southwestern part of the system. This environment is favorable for deep convection.

Conditions should be rather favorable from tomorrow, but especially from Wednesday for evolution to a tropical system, but it is difficult to forecast its intensity (sufficient sea surface temperature, very good divergence, but poor supply on poleward edge.) Last runs of available numerical weather prediction models forecast a crossing from west to east over the Mozambique Channel between Tuesday and Saturday, but they do not deepen very significantly the system. However, this system should generate very disturbed weather on the South of the Mozambique Channel and on the Southwestern part of Madagascar.

For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression is weak. Beyond, potential becomes fair to good
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW 08U
8:46 PM WST January 21 2013
===========================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1002 hPa) located at 18.8S 121.4E or 130 km southwest of Broome and 340 km east northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it moves to the west southwest off the Pilbara coastline. Gales are not expected in coastal areas during Tuesday, but if the system does reach cyclone intensity then gales with wind gusts to 55 knots could develop between Pardoo and Dampier on Wednesday morning possibly extending west to Onslow later in the day.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Pardoo to Onslow, including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 19.0S 120.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 19.4S 119.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 20.1S 117.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.2S 115.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
Good outflow/divergence aloft and weak vertical shear is helping convection slowly focus near the centre of the weak low level circulation. The concentration of convection has improved compared with the same time yesterday despite weak synoptic scale low level convergence and competing convection in the heat trough over land during the diurnal peak. However there are no significant pressure falls occurring in the vicinity and the surface circulation remains weak and poorly defined, as evidenced by the earlier [0318Z] Oceansat pass.

In favour for development is the fact that the circulation is already developed in the low to mid-levels,is experiencing only low to moderate wind shear, will mover over waters of high ocean heat content [SST>31C], and the flow is anticyclonic in the upper levels. Despite this, most models don't suggest intensification to cyclone strength without broadscale low level forcing. Much will depend upon whether convection continues to focus near the low level circulation center overnight. If this eventuates, a faster than typical development rate of a small system is expected. Numerical weather prediction models generally has lower skill in such a scenario and hence the precautionary warnings.

Forecast motion is to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the coast under the influence of a weak mid-level ridge.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE OSWALD, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
10:57 PM EST January 21 2013
===========================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Oswald (992 hPa) located at 15.4S 141.4E or 35 km west northwest of Kowanyama and 60 km south southwest of Pormpuraaw has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Oswald, a category 1 cyclone, remains in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria. Tropical Cyclone Oswald is expected to move north to northeast near the coast and remain a category 1 cyclone before crossing the coast between Aurukun and Kowanyama early on Tuesday.

Gales with gusts to 50 knots are occurring on the coast around Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw, and are expected to extend northward towards Aurukun as the cyclone approaches. Monsoonal gusts are expected to affect coastal areas north of the cyclone to Cape York.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding is likely in areas between Karumba and Cape York for the remainder of today and will persist into Tuesday.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, a storm tide is expected in coastal areas between about Kowanyama and Weipa. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas that may possibly be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors. Tides are also expected to abnormally high, exceeding the highest tide of the year, about all remaining parts of the west coast of Cape York Peninsula during Tuesday's high tide.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Karumba to Cape York

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.1S 141.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.9S 143.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 15.8S 143.2E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 17.3S 142.4E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.5 degree wrap on a log 10 spiral. DT is 2.5. MET not used as the system was over land 24 hours ago. FT based on DT. FT held at 3.0 due to constraints.

North to northeast movement is expected to continue until landfall. Numerical guidance moves the system to the north or north northeast over the next 12 hours, keeping the tropical cyclone near the coast, with the potential to cross over to land at any time in the next 12 hours.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:



It was smart to word it "the day it snowed in Miami" because it may never happen again in our lifetime.
Quoting Jedkins01:



It was smart to word it "the day it snowed in Miami" because it may never happen again in our lifetime.


I've seen it snow here in SWFL once, (flurries). It was still cool though. Christmas Eve 1989. It got to 25 that night...
Quoting charlottefl:


I've seen it snow here in SWFL once, (flurries). It was still cool though. Christmas Eve 1989. It got to 25 that night...


Yeah apparently we also had some snow in the Tampa Bay area that same Christmas eve along with a low of 21 on Christmas morning, 2 degrees above the all time coldest day back home in my area of 19. I couldn't imagine 19 for a low in Pinellas, or 21, lol.

Of course I didn't live here back then, nor was I alive yet for that matter either :)


BTW, if you're excited for cold next weekend, don't get your hopes up too much, the ecmwf is backing off quite a bit recently from its big cold blast, and it doesn't have any support from the other models on that either, the other models only show highs 69 to 73 behind the front with low 50's for lows, near normal at best.

I'm really not all that surprised the computer models are backing off from advertising significant cold yet again. That's happened all winter. In fact it just happened with the recent approaching front. The models had this upcoming front bringing a freeze into most of Florida with high's low to mid 50's at a week out, now its just very little cold air, no more than we often see behind a front n October.

In fact, we actually had more impressive cold out breaks earlier in the Fall this year than we have had in the winter so far. Now that is just weird.

I'm thinking the Tampa Bay area is approaching at least the top 10 January's ever. Probably your area too.
From our local paper...

aaaack my team choked
sunny days.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
aaaack my team choked
sunny days.



Should you be that surprised? They are masters of choking. They are a great team, but sadly they don't know how to get it done.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Should you be that surprised? They are masters of choking. They are a great team, but sadly they don't know how to get it done.


don't rub it in :'(
0 second half points......oh well back to wx
where not much is going on.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


don't rub it in :'(
0 second half points......oh well back to wx
where not much is going on.


haha sorry man
My NWS posted a picture of a newspaper from January 22, 1985. Temperatures never made it above 5F in Wilmington.

Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah apparently we also had some snow in the Tampa Bay area that same Christmas eve along with a low of 21 on Christmas morning, 2 degrees above the all time coldest day back home in my area of 19. I couldn't imagine 19 for a low in Pinellas, or 21, lol.

Of course I didn't live here back then, nor was I alive yet for that matter either :)


BTW, if you're excited for cold next weekend, don't get your hopes up too much, the ecmwf is backing off quite a bit recently from its big cold blast, and it doesn't have any support from the other models on that either, the other models only show highs 69 to 73 behind the front with low 50's for lows, near normal at best.

I'm really not all that surprised the computer models are backing off from advertising significant cold yet again. That's happened all winter. In fact it just happened with the recent approaching front. The models had this upcoming front bringing a freeze into most of Florida with high's low to mid 50's at a week out, now its just very little cold air, no more than we often see behind a front n October.

In fact, we actually had more impressive cold out breaks earlier in the Fall this year than we have had in the winter so far. Now that is just weird.

I'm thinking the Tampa Bay area is approaching at least the top 10 January's ever. Probably your area too.


Yeah I was only 7 at the time, but I remember it very vividly. That and the year before were both very cold winters. Starting to wonder if we're actually gonna see any really cold weather this winter at all..
Pretty nice temps for West Palm Beach this week. Models still having a hard time figuring out if the really cold weather will make it down this far for the weekend...

Dr. Masters, in hydrology, how do they measure for drought, and how is it defined? What areas of the country as of 1/21/13 are in a drought situation?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
aaaack my team choked
sunny days.


Mine too. Sometimes it just takes time. Sometimes you just run up against reality.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From our local paper...

do you Want my local forecast???
suck it UP flori's
The ensemble mean forecasts of the AO show a big jump in values over the next few days followed by a big plunge for the first of February once again.

Coincides pretty well for a warm up the end of this week and then another arctic outbreak by the end of January/into February. Not perfect though.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My NWS posted a picture of a newspaper from January 22, 1985. Temperatures never made it above 5F in Wilmington.



What is going on with that Fire Hydrant? Looks like it is on fire at the base.
686. txjac
Quoting LargoFl:
BIG SNOWSTORM HERE....URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-212245-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130123T1200Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.WC.Y.0001.130122T0300Z-130122T1600Z/
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVIL LE
944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE SLOW AND HAZARDOUS WITH HIGHLY
VARIABLE ROAD CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...4 TO 20 ABOVE.


Wow! That's a LOT of snow! My little brother will not be happy ...lol. Too much shoveling
Hey, Keep see ya got +19

This is my Sisters Place

Rhinelander-Oneida County Airport (KRHI)

Lat: 45.63 Lon: -89.47 Elev: 1663ft.

Overcast

-12°F

-24°C

Humidity57%
Wind SpeedW 12 G 18 mph
Barometer30.04 in (1022.7 mb)
Dewpoint-23°F (-31°C)
Visibility7.00 mi
Wind Chill-33°F (-36°C)

Last Update on 21 Jan 9:53 am CST
94S
Quoting LargoFl:
BIG SNOWSTORM HERE....URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-212245-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130123T1200Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.WC.Y.0001.130122T0300Z-130122T1600Z/
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVIL LE
944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE SLOW AND HAZARDOUS WITH HIGHLY
VARIABLE ROAD CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...4 TO 20 ABOVE.


whoooo... I want that here
It's cold in C IL this a.m. and they've dropped tomorrow's low to 5 - almost as cold as the Wings were in StL Sat. night 97 (sorry couldn't resist)

Also, a RIP to one of the greatest gentlemen to ever grace this planet, Stan "The Man" Musial.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
aaaack my team choked
sunny days.


Sigh...Been there...

Nice and sunny today here too. Lol
Why put any credence into the drought monitor for the next few months? A few months ago they were calling for above normal precipiation in the southeast. Kinda tired of long-range predictions, waste.
Our next hope of a system is at least a week or more
away:

I tell you what, the weather here is crazy, just look how crazy the radar is. I'm in the eye of this thing whatever it is, it's sunshining.


After all the cold and gloom here, the NWS is starting to sound normal again. :)

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT (NOT MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL
TRAVEL SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. POST-
FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPEDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.

OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
"We will respond to climate change, knowing failure to do so would be a disgrace to the children of future generations." -- President Barack H. Obama
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE 74
______________________________

Southeast New England Snowstorm
Major Lake effect from Lake Erie

In Honor to Dr. MLK Jr.



click image for larger pic
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"We will respond to climate change, knowing failure to do so would be a disgrace to the children of future generations." -- President Barack H. Obama


What a pile of garbage. They can't even get short or long range forecasts nailed down yet, and here we have this useless politician trying to play God with our freedoms by wanting to place restrictions on our activity based on false, unproven premise, that man is warming the earth. If Washington would keep quiet, there would be a big drop in CO2 output. Why doesn't anybody have anything to say about China and India and their "disregard" for global warming?