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Drought in Syria: a Major Cause of the Civil War?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:54 PM GMT on June 18, 2014

Syria's devastating civil war that began in March 2011 has killed over 200,000 people, displaced at least 4.5 million, and created 3 million refugees. While the causes of the war are complex, a key contributing factor was the nation's devastating 2006 - 2011 drought, one of the worst in the nation's history, according to new research accepted for publication in the journal Weather, Climate, and Society by water resources expert Dr. Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute. The drought brought the Fertile Crescent's lowest 4-year rainfall amounts since 1940, and Syria's most severe set of crop failures in recorded history. The worst drought-affected regions were eastern Syria, northern Iraq, and Iran, the major grain-growing areas of the northern Fertile Crescent. In a press release that accompanied the release of the new paper, Dr. Gleick said that as a result of the drought, "the decrease in water availability, water mismanagement, agricultural failures, and related economic deterioration contributed to population dislocations and the migration of rural communities to nearby cities. These factors further contributed to urban unemployment, economic dislocations, food insecurity for more than a million people, and subsequent social unrest."


Figure 1. The highest level of drought, "Exceptional", was affecting much of Western Syria in April 2014, as measured by the one-year Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Image credit: NOAA's Global Drought Portal.

Human-caused climate change a major factor in more frequent Mediterranean droughts
The paper also assessed the role of climatic change in altering water availability. There is growing evidence that annual and seasonal drought frequency and intensity in the Levant/Eastern Mediterranean region have increased from historical climatic norms, with the number of dry days increasing during the winter rainy season. Similar findings were discussed in a NOAA press release that accompanied the release of a 2011 paper by Hoerling et al., "On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought." That paper found that human-caused emissions greenhouse gases were "a key attributable factor" in the drying up of wintertime precipitation in the Mediterranean region in recent decades.


Figure 2. Winter precipitation trends in the Mediterranean region for the period 1902 - 2010. In the 20 years ending in 2010, 10 of the driest 12 winters took place in the lands surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. Image credit: NOAA.

Future conflict over water in the Middle East
The potential for future conflict in the Middle East over water is significant. Researchers Heidi Cullen and Peter deMenocal discussed previous incidents in 1975 and 1990: Turkey, because it has the good fortune of being situated at the headwaters of the Tigris – Euphrates River system, can literally turn off the water supply of its downstream neighbors. When the Ataturk Dam was completed in 1990, Turkey stopped the flow of the Euphrates entirely for 1 month, leaving Iraq and Syria in considerable distress. Similarly, in 1975, when the Syrians began filling Lake Assad after completion of work on the Tabqa Dam, Iraq threatened to bomb the dam, alleging that it seriously reduced the river’s flow. Both countries amassed troops along the border.


Figure 3. Stele of Narâm-Sîn, king of the Akkadian Empire, celebrating his victory against the Lullubi from Zagros. Limestone, c. 2250 BCE, Louvre Museum. Image credit: Marie-Lan Nguyen

A great Syrian drought 4,200 years ago
Great civilization-threatening droughts have happened before in Syria. In a 2000 article published in Geology, "Climate change and the collapse of the Akkadian empire: Evidence from the deep sea", a team of researchers led by Heidi Cullen studied deposits of continental dust blown into the Gulf of Oman in the late 1990s. They discovered a large increase in dust 4,200 years ago that likely coincided with a 100-year drought that brought a 30% decline in precipitation to Syria. The drought, called the 4.2 kiloyear event, is thought to have been caused by cooler sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The Akkadian Empire, which flourished in ancient Mesopotamia between 2334 BC - 2193 BC, also crashed at this time, giving credence to the idea that the drought may have been a key reason why. The 4.2 kiloyear event has also been linked to the collapse of the Old Kingdom in Egypt. The paper concluded, "Geochemical correlation of volcanic ash shards between the archeological site and marine sediment record establishes a direct temporal link between Mesopotamian aridification and social collapse, implicating a sudden shift to more arid conditions as a key factor contributing to the collapse of the Akkadian empire."

Commentary
People fear storms, and spectacular and devastating storms like Hurricane Sandy and Hurricane Katrina have stirred more debate in the U.S. about taking action against climate change than any other weather events. But I argue that the on-going Western U.S. mega-drought and Syrian drought should be louder wake-up calls. Drought is the greatest threat civilization faces from climate change, because drought takes away the two things necessary to sustain life--food and water. Drought experts Justin Sheffield and Eric Wood of Princeton, in their 2011 book, Drought, list more than ten civilizations and cultures that probably collapsed, in part, because of drought. Among them: The Mayans of 800 - 1000 AD. The Anasazi culture in the Southwest U.S. in the 11th - 12th centuries. The ancient Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia. The Chinese Ming Dynasty of 1500 - 1730. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. The fact that the most politically volatile region on the planet is already experiencing an increase in drought that research links to climate change should be a serious wake-up call about the need to manage water resources more wisely--and to work to forge an international agreement in Paris in 2015 to cut down on the amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide humans are putting into the air. Dr. Gleick's paper concludes with sensible options for reducing the risks of water-related conflicts in the Middle East, including expansion of efficient irrigation technologies and practices, integrated management and monitoring of groundwater resources, and diplomatic and political efforts to improve the joint management of shared international watersheds and rivers.

References
Gleick, P., 2014, Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria, accepted for publication in Weather, Climate, and Society

Cullen, H.M., and P.B. deMenocal, 2000, North Atlantic Influence on TIgris-Euphrates Streamflow, International Journal of Climatology, 20: 853-863.

Hoerling, Martin, Jon Eischeid, Judith Perlwitz, Xiaowei Quan, Tao Zhang, Philip Pegion, 2012, On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought, J. Climate, 25, 2146–2161, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1

Kaniewski, D. et al., 2012, Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East, PNAS 109:10, 3862–3867, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1116304109

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Drought Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Clearly something attempting to form almost looks simlar to alex of 2004, imho.

Quoting 498. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Those are only tornado reports. Remember that tornadoes that track through populated areas are going to be way over-counted. The actual tornado count year-to-date is almost to 300; in other words, pathetic.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.
503. Ed22
Good morning every one it seems to me that posting blanks isn't a comment I'm very displeased about that everyone. Wind shear is down slightly but still too high for development a tropical wave near the lesser antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and area of disorganized shower and cloudiness just west of Jamaica. No development isn't anticipated to occur over the next 3 to 6 days computer models are proporting that tropical waves going to move across the lesser antilles over the next weeks, let see what happens then.


Hola. Well this has become at least a bit more interesting. Looks more like a mid level feature, but it's certainly much more pronounced than yesterday and has worked its way down some, although not to the surface. Checked buoys and pressure is high and winds are light. Shear is about 15-20 kts. At least it's something!

Shear seems to have gotten the better of our little Caribbean system.

I'm not sure if I'm seeing things or the radar is playing tricks, but it looks like we have two low pressures (one in the GOM and one along the Eastcoast.)



Quoting 497. MahFL:



Don't worry too much, the irrigation pumps are still running fine.
...and pumping the subsidence ever faster. Great!
Quoting 498. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Those are only tornado reports. Remember that tornadoes that track through populated areas are going to be way over-counted. The actual tornado count year-to-date is almost to 300; in other words, pathetic.
Yeah, there hasn't been near enough destruction and death yet this year -- get with the program, weather!
Here is the current CIMSS shear chart for the North Atlantic; a little windy in the upper levels off the coast of Florida.  That area of convective activity off of Cape Kennedy would have to remain intact and slide up a few hundred miles off the coast of the Carolinas to stand a chance IMHO. It's in the right place SST wise (right over the Gulf Stream) but the upper level shear would prevent any proper stacking.  As noted below, the ULL in the area is enhancing the convection but it remains an upper level feature enhancing baroclinic convection at the surface.
Quoting barbamz:
Good holiday-morning from Germany (yeah, free day for several regions) with something off topic - but at least some good news for a change. I don't know whether you've followed those massive rescue operations in the last days which took place in the northern Alps in one hell of a cave (depth 3280ft; name "Riesending" means "giant thing"; it stuck to the place when the discoverers of the cave in 1995 stood in awe: "Wow, what a giant thing!") ...

Hi Barb. Thanks for the link to the story. As you might imagine, I have been following this story. Truly an amazing rescue, both from a human and logistical view. Most of the rescuers are volunteers, and many have spent weeks away from their jobs to get this one guy back to the surface. I was made to take a 10 day cave and mine rescue course once. That was enough for me. If you told me I had to go down in that cave or get shot, I'd take getting shot. I don't know how they do it.
It appears a mid-level or shallow surface trough is forming with a system off the Florida east coast.
Though The Weather Channel is calling the system an "Upper-level low" It is quite apparent that it isn't.

850 MB Vorticity

200 MB Vorticity

I do believe it won't amount to much, but it wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on it.
Quoting 509. sar2401:


Hi Barb. Thanks for the link to the story. As you might imagine, I have been following this story. Truly an amazing rescue, both from a human and logistical view. Most of the rescuers are volunteers, and many have spent weeks away from their jobs to get this one guy back to the surface. I was made to take a 10 day cave and mine rescue course once. That was enough for me. If you told me I had to go down in that cave or get shot, I'd take getting shot. I don't know how they do it.


I always figured you as a spelunker.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I'm not sure if I'm seeing things or the radar is playing tricks, but it looks like we have two low pressures (one in the GOM and one along the Eastcoast.)




I think it's all part of the same trough the NHC has been talking about the past several days. IIRC, they said yesterday that another ULL might develop in the Gulf just off the west coast of Florida.
Very impressive spikes in the ENSO regions going on today with the westerly wind burst, I'd imagine they'll keep climbing for the next few days. Classic El Nino look in the Pacific with the 1 2 region baking off South America and the 3.4 region now falling in line. It's taken awhile, but this should be what gets us to the "official" El Nino levels. Question will be what does it peak at?

Quoting Grothar:


I always figured you as a spelunker.

Not me. After spending a couple of days with my face in mud and about two inches about my head, a nice swift water rescue seemed mighty appealing. :-)
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Yeah, there hasn't been near enough destruction and death yet this year -- get with the program, weather!

C'mon. You know he didn't really mean it like that.
Quoting 507. CaneFreeCR:

Yeah, there hasn't been near enough destruction and death yet this year -- get with the program, weather!

Tornadoes are awe-inspiring and fascinating to watch and track. I don't remember stating that I enjoyed the death/destruction that came with them...obviously no sane people does...but if that's what you made of my comment, so be it.

I guess people shouldn't wish for blizzards either--they're deadly. The heat is deadly. The cold is deadly. It's just a part of nature.
Quoting 513. MAweatherboy1:

Very impressive spikes in the ENSO regions going on today with the westerly wind burst, I'd imagine they'll keep climbing for the next few days. Classic El Nino look in the Pacific with the 1 2 region baking off South America and the 3.4 region now falling in line. It's taken awhile, but this should be what gets us to the "official" El Nino levels. Question will be what does it peak at?


I'm still going with moderate.I believe nature owes us another snowy winter after the pathetic 010-011,011-12 and 012-013.
Quoting 513. MAweatherboy1:

Very impressive spikes in the ENSO regions going on today with the westerly wind burst, I'd imagine they'll keep climbing for the next few days. Classic El Nino look in the Pacific with the 1 2 region baking off South America and the 3.4 region now falling in line. It's taken awhile, but this should be what gets us to the "official" El Nino levels. Question will be what does it peak at?




Looks like Nino 3.4 may make a run at 1C over the next week or so. Nino 1&2 is nearing 2C now. It will be interesting to see if the models readjust upwards again as we are nearing what some models show for a peak for El-Nino this year.
Quoting 409. sar2401:


Dang! Now, if we could just get Gro to agree also, it would be some kind of WU record. :-)


I disagree.
Quoting 517. washingtonian115:

I'm still going with moderate.I believe nature owes us another snowy winter after the pathetic 010-011,011-102 and 012-013.


Could be similar to 09/10. This definitely won't be a weak El-Nino or modiki as some were suggesting on here.
Absolute devastation in Pilger, Nebraska. NWS Omaha is still debating about EF4/5 rating and had to call in experts to look at buildings.

Quoting 517. washingtonian115:

I'm still going with moderate.I believe nature owes us another snowy winter after the pathetic 010-011,011-102 and 012-013.
Nature is paying it's debts.
We were 1 MJO away from surfacing all of this warm anomalous water and now we have it so it will be key to see how high these enso values get the next 2 weeks.


Quoting TylerStanfield:
It appears a mid-level or shallow surface trough is forming with a system off the Florida east coast.
Though The Weather Channel is calling the system an "Upper-level low" It is quite apparent that it isn't. I do believe it won't amount to much, but it wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on it.

I've been saying much the same thing over the last several days. I think it's still an upper level trough that's expanding to take in that area to the west of Florida, but it looks like it's at least starting to transition down to the mid-levels. I'd give it a 50-50 chance of becoming a surface low in three days but a lot depends on if it goes ashore in Florida or get pulled north in the Atlantic. At least we won't have to wait 384 hours to see what happens. :-)
Land cane? Kidding. Interesting little feature nonetheless.

Quoting 513. MAweatherboy1:

Very impressive spikes in the ENSO regions going on today with the westerly wind burst, I'd imagine they'll keep climbing for the next few days. Classic El Nino look in the Pacific with the 1 2 region baking off South America and the 3.4 region now falling in line. It's taken awhile, but this should be what gets us to the "official" El Nino levels. Question will be what does it peak at?



I'm thinking near +1.5C. Moderate to Strong Threshold.
Quoting Grothar:


I disagree.

I figured as much...
Quoting 496. TylerStanfield:


This new westerly wind burst from the MJO pulse in the pacific has started another strong warming trend in the equatorial pacific. ENSO regions are warming quite rapidly, and this should continue for the next week or so.






That's the end.... :-(
Now I really hope we won't become a desert with this EL NINO. EL NINO is not good for so many regions... I pray for a big LA NINA next year.
Quoting 507. CaneFreeCR:

Yeah, there hasn't been near enough destruction and death yet this year -- get with the program, weather!

I'm pretty sure that's not what he meant in that comment. He was stating the total number of official tornadoes is pathetic in perspective to it still being far below the average for this time of year.
Quoting 526. GatorWX:

Land cane? Kidding. Interesting little feature nonetheless.


I thought I saw the "eye" at the beginning of the loop :).#wearesoboredwithourlives
Quoting 527. TylerStanfield:


I'm thinking near +1.5C. Moderate to Strong Threshold.


Euro ensembles have been saying 1.5 to 1.8C which seems very reasonable given that nino 3.4 is already at .6C with today's values and could be .6C on next Monday's CPC update.
Quoting 530. CaribBoy:

Now I really hope we won't become a desert with this EL NINO. EL NINO is not good for so many regions... I pray for a big LA NINA next year.


We all do at one time or another.
Quoting 529. CaribBoy:



That's the end.... :-(
El nino or not the season looks like it will be below average.


There is an intense thunderstorm to our east... and it doesn't want to come to us as usual :/

Quoting 533. StormTrackerScott:



Euro ensembles have been saying 1.5 to 1.8C which seems very reasonable given that nino 3.4 is already at .6C with today's values and could be .6C on next Monday's CPC update.
Can you link that?
Quoting 530. CaribBoy:

Now I really hope we won't become a desert with this EL NINO. EL NINO is not good for so many regions... I pray for a big LA NINA next year.


This could be another step up in global temperature if all that stored heat gets released into the atmosphere.
We shall see what develops.
We might be going into a pre 1997 El Nino dominate pattern with ENSO, that dominated between 1976 and 1997.
It is still early.
Glad the NHC circled this. Looks interesting.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough located about 75 miles east of the east-central
coast of Florida is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Surface pressures are relatively high in the region
and significant development of this system is not expected as it
drifts slowly northward during the next day or so. After that time,
conditions will remain unfavorable for development as the
disturbance accelerates northeastward ahead of an upper-level
trough.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
I had a feeling the NHC would say something about this because it took them a little longer to get the update in and i knew they were doing something.
Indus basin will get hotter by 4 degree C by the end of the century

By the turn of the century, global warming could radically alter the climatic anatomy of one of the world's most populated river basins — the Indus — thereby impacting millions of livelihoods, says a new study.

The 1.1 million sq. km basin, shared by India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and China, is projected to warm “significantly and progressively”, with average temperatures set to increase by around 4 degrees C by 2080, says a paper published recently in the journal Climate Dynamics.

Warmer winters in the plains, quicker snow melt in the basin's northern highlands (comprising parts of the Hindu Kush, Karakorum, and Himalayas) and more frequent flash floods at the foothills are predicted over the next seven decades, altering the basin’s hydrology, the paper warns.


Link
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Absolute devastation in Pilger, Nebraska. NWS Omaha is still debating about EF4/5 rating and had to call in experts to look at buildings.


Couldn't make your picture work. After seeing the pictures TA13 posted, I can see why. Certainly are enough EF-5 appearing damage pictures but the quality of construction will be the difference between 190 mph winds and 200 mph winds. Pilger is a typical declining Nebraska town, and the housing stock is quite old. There's only been one new house built in the past five years according to the Census. What got hit and how old the structures were will play a big part in classification.
Quoting 533. StormTrackerScott:



Euro ensembles have been saying 1.5 to 1.8C which seems very reasonable given that nino 3.4 is already at .6C with today's values and could be .6C on next Monday's CPC update.

With this latest warming trend, it will really matter where Nino 3.4 ends up by the end of it. If it manages to warm to near +1C by end of the westerly wind burst, we may see a much stronger event than what is currently anticipated. Wherever the Nino Regions end up at the end of this, will give them enough room to fluctuate and set them up for further warming up into a stronger event as more westerly wind bursts occur over the Summer, which will definitely sure things up for an El Nino event to form by August or September.
Quoting 526. GatorWX:

Land cane? Kidding. Interesting little feature nonetheless.




Texas better watch out! Land canes mean land sharks!! It's not a candy gram!




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Glad the NHC circled this. Looks interesting.

Shockingly, no yellow circle in the Caribbean though. I guess they'll have to wait a while yet.
NHC marked yellow 0%/0% on E Fl AOI
which is cool
hopefully it can become Arthur
atleast it would get the season started

if shear can drop in the caribbean maybe NHC could start marking them tropical waves

man we need to get a move on with this season
Quoting 531. TylerStanfield:


I'm pretty sure that's not what he meant in that comment. He was stating the total number of official tornadoes is pathetic in perspective to it still being far below the average for this time of year.
I'm sure he doesn't want more death and destruction either, but it appears that "pathetic" is a wish for higher numbers, both of tornadoes and of intensity. The results are more death and destruction -- personally, I think the lower numbers are a great improvement. We should hope that AGW leads to fewer and less violent tornadoes, as well as fewer and less violent tropical storms and a smoother transport of heat away from the tropics -- but it's not likely!
Quoting 496. TylerStanfield:


This new westerly wind burst from the MJO pulse in the pacific has started another strong warming trend in the equatorial pacific. ENSO regions are warming quite rapidly, and this should continue for the next week or so.






Sounds like the forecast the guest blogger Dr Ventrice may be starting to come to fruition. MJO moving east in mid pacific will turn winds around and push that hot west pacific water east....looks like a big blue(cooler than normal waters) in the far west pacific is occurring now....we will have to wait and see how strongly the initial kelvin waves are reinforced from the westerly wind anomalies, only then will we see the true strength of the possible El Nino.
Quoting 546. sar2401:


Shockingly, no yellow circle in the Caribbean though. I guess they'll have to wait a while yet.

I don't see the need for a circle though. Convection is being fueled, as beell illustrated early this morning, by upper-level divergence. Wind shear is vey unfavorable and should remain that way. No reliable models are developing the area.

Looks like we'll enter July with 0-0-0 unless something pops up (like the surface trough east of Florida did).
anyway the only reason NHC marked that E Fl AOI is because it just off the US Coast
Quoting Climate175:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough located about 75 miles east of the east-central
coast of Florida is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.

Now at least you have something real too look at after the heartbreak of the SW Caribbean over the last three weeks. Not much to look at, but it's a circle, which is better than a formless semi-blob.






Heartbreaking. Many people never recover from something like this.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't see the need for a circle though. Convection is being fueled, as beell illustrated early this morning, by upper-level divergence. Wind shear is vey unfavorable and should remain that way. No reliable models are developing the area.

Looks like we'll enter July with 0-0-0 unless something pops up (like the surface trough east of Florida did).

It looks like it has a decent chance of becoming a surface low, which is why I suspect it got the chance of a circle. It's also a favored area for June development, and models don't have a good history with lows close to Florida. I agree that the chances for development are pretty slim, but an abundance of caution gets a circle sometimes.
Quoting 546. sar2401:


Shockingly, no yellow circle in the Caribbean though. I guess they'll have to wait a while yet.

I'm not shocked. It really has no chance with 50 knots of shear, and not much of a structure to it.
Completely void of convection now, as well.
Quoting TylerStanfield:
It appears a mid-level or shallow surface trough is forming with a system off the Florida east coast.
Though The Weather Channel is calling the system an "Upper-level low" It is quite apparent that it isn't.

850 MB Vorticity

200 MB Vorticity

I do believe it won't amount to much, but it wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on it.


Local meteorologist on the news here has been calling it a little "upper level disturbance" for the past few days. Beyond that quick 5 seconds of mentioning it, he moves on to other things.
I don't mind the cautious yellow circle from the NHC, but if you're gonna do it at least set the odds at 10%, not 0%. Otherwise, just don't circle it at all. As it stands I agree with Cody that we'll go 0-0-0 into July barring an unexpected development. Shear should persistent more or less in its current form in the Caribbean through at least the end of the month.
Quoting 532. washingtonian115:

I thought I saw the "eye" at the beginning of the loop :).#wearesoboredwithourlives


It keeps reverting the loop to 12 frames. With 40 frames, it's very evident.

Look cool on sat loop too. Only flash though, so you'll have to click the image to view.

Quoting 519. Grothar:



I disagree.
you might at least consider agreeing to disagree..
Quoting 553. Grothar:







Heartbreaking. Many people never recover from something like this.


Gnarly! Sad!
Quoting 536. CaribBoy:



There is an intense thunderstorm to our east... and it doesn't want to come to us as usual :/


Looks like that Twave is bringing some weather to you -- hope it doesn't fizzle. It's held on remarkably in the face of all that shear.
This is a sign that the the East Coast may be the area for prime development with low shear and warm waters.
GOES East Rapid Scan just starting. Florida East Coast AOI

Rapid Scan was not initiated for that, but for severe weather in Wakefield, VA
Quoting 558. MAweatherboy1:

I don't mind the cautious yellow circle from the NHC, but if you're gonna do it at least set the odds at 10%, not 0%. Otherwise, just don't circle it at all. As it stands I agree with Cody that we'll go 0-0-0 into July barring an unexpected development. Shear should persistent more or less in its current form in the Caribbean through at least the end of the month.

Agreed.
WCCO-tv out of Minneapolis/St Paul, MN, has posted the following photo gallery of flash flooding in their area this morning:
http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/photo-galleries/201 4/06/18/flooding-mudslide-in-mankato/

There are few small creeks in the Twin Cities metro area (mostly small lakes instead) but Minnehaha Creek reached the highest level in at least 10 years. This led to an increased amount of water over the normally more tranquil Minnehaha Falls.

Many main arterials were flooded earlier this morning, including a few freeways.

Many flood warnings remain in effect for the area.
Quoting 564. Climate175:

This is a sign that the the East Coast may be the area for prime development with low shear and warm waters.


The anomaly is pretty high for the Northeast coast. Waters are usually not that warm.

Quoting 554. sar2401:


It looks like it has a decent chance of becoming a surface low, which is why I suspect it got the chance of a circle. It's also a favored area for June development, and models don't have a good history with lows close to Florida. I agree that the chances for development are pretty slim, but an abundance of caution gets a circle sometimes.

I might be wrong but I don't think we've had more than 1 or 2 storms, form in this area in the last 100 years or so in the mid-June timeframe. The main area for development historically is the Western Carib in this time frame.
Quoting 517. washingtonian115:

I'm still going with moderate.I believe nature owes us another snowy winter after the pathetic 010-011,011-12 and 012-013.
Wasn't 2013-2014 a record breaking winter for you?
Quoting 530. CaribBoy:

Now I really hope we won't become a desert with this EL NINO. EL NINO is not good for so many regions... I pray for a big LA NINA next year.
I am sorry for you, El Niño usually brings dry weather to me too but this past two days thankfully the AOI that was close to CA gave us rain. I imagine 1990-1994 were terrible then for you as I believe most were Niño or warm Enso years.
Quoting 554. sar2401:


It looks like it has a decent chance of becoming a surface low, which is why I suspect it got the chance of a circle. It's also a favored area for June development, and models don't have a good history with lows close to Florida. I agree that the chances for development are pretty slim, but an abundance of caution gets a circle sometimes.
It might but I am not sure.I believe until early or middle of July we will see our first name storm. Btw Sar you were the blogger that had come to the Bay islands right? It was true to see the coral and the beautiful beaches.
The Low off Florida's east coast is causing the thunderstorms across the state to line up in band like formations.
I'm in Fort Myers and the storms runs across the state to West Palm Beach and out into the Atlantic.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Could be similar to 09/10. This definitely won't be a weak El-Nino or modiki as some were suggesting on here.


"Definitely" is an awfully strong word to use Scotty. You were pretty certain we were already in an El Nino months ago, and we still aren't. Yes, the values in the 3.4 region has shot up the past day, but as fast as it goes up then next 12 hours it can go down. Certainly WAY too early to try to say a weak El Nino wont happen, but hey whatever makes you sleep better at night :o)

I'll get ya some more darts as you have used a dozen already :o)
Extreme anomaly in the Northeast



This one already looks like an el Nino in progress. The Southern California and Baja regions are interesting.

Quoting Grothar:






Heartbreaking. Many people never recover from something like this.

Especially for a little town like Pilger. The top picture is a good overview of the downtown section. There wasn't a lot there to begin with, and now there's a lot less. Pilger's slogan is "The Town to Tough to Die". I don't know if that will still be true in the future. :-(
Quoting 569. CosmicEvents:


I might be wrong but I don't think we've had more than 1 or 2 storms, form in this area in the last 100 years or so in the mid-June timeframe. The main area for development historically is the Western Carib in this time frame.


GOM also








Link
Quoting 573. Grothar:

Extreme anomaly in the Northeast



This one already looks like an el Nino in progress. The Southern California and Baja regions are interesting.





Very short article from Accuweather on the two major basins.

Link
UK MET Office back again with East Coast system:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.06.2014



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.7N 71.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 23.06.2014 37.0N 69.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 23.06.2014 37.7N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.06.2014 39.2N 60.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.06.2014 40.3N 57.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.06.2014 42.0N 52.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.06.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



Quoting allancalderini:
Btw Sar you were the blogger that had come to the Bay islands right? It was true to see the coral and the beautiful beaches.

Yes, indeed. Was last there in 2005. Roatan and the other Bay Islands are in my top five places of the world pretty enough to die in. :-) The diving is fabulous, and the water has a deeper turquoise color than I've seen anywhere else in the tropics. Quite a contrast between Teguc or even Catacamas and then flying into Coxen Hole. :-)
Afternoon All. Weak for sure but this is more than an upper level disturbance.

581. DDR
CaribBoy tell us when it comes down heavy,we'll know then that your happy :)
I'm in S. Ft. Myers and I'm getting 8" per hour rain rates in my Vantate Vue weather station. I know it won't last, but it's really coming down.

We're getting some nice boomers with the afternoon warming

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
UK MET Office back again with East Coast system:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.06.2014



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.7N 71.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 23.06.2014 37.0N 69.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 23.06.2014 37.7N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.06.2014 39.2N 60.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.06.2014 40.3N 57.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.06.2014 42.0N 52.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.06.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH




That's quite a range in strength in three days. I think we may have to wait a bit before latching on to that forecast, especially since it wasn't calling for anything like a TS yesterday.
Quoting 558. MAweatherboy1:

I don't mind the cautious yellow circle from the NHC, but if you're gonna do it at least set the odds at 10%, not 0%. Otherwise, just don't circle it at all. As it stands I agree with Cody that we'll go 0-0-0 into July barring an unexpected development. Shear should persistent more or less in its current form in the Caribbean through at least the end of the month.

Technicallt, it is not "at 0%"...it is "near 0%"

1. A surface trough located about 75 miles east of the east-central
coast of Florida is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Surface pressures are relatively high in the region
and significant development of this system is not expected as it
drifts slowly northward during the next day or so. After that time,
conditions will remain unfavorable for development as the
disturbance accelerates northeastward ahead of an upper-level
trough.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I'm in S. Ft. Myers and I'm getting 8" per hour rain rates in my Vantate Vue weather station. I know it won't last, but it's really coming down.


Nothing here. 96 degrees with a 71 dewpoint, giving me a pleasant 103 heat index. You'd think something has to happen with those conditions...
Quoting 579. sar2401:


Yes, indeed. Was last there in 2005. Roat�n and the other Bay Islands are in my top five places of the world pretty enough to die in. :-) The diving is fabulous, and the water has a deeper turquoise color than I've seen anywhere else in the tropics. Quite a contrast between Teguc or even Catacamas and then flying into Coxen Hole. :-)
I went with my classmates as our trip and it was fantastic the people its cool and all but the prices are really expensive and the worst part for us is that all is in dollars not lempiras,so it might be good for you but for us was a really expensive trip.XD you should come again and see they are new attractions too.Lets not talk about Tegus its really pollute.Tegucigalpa its not really an attractive place as its only functions for business.
This is reminding me of Tropical Storm Bret in formation from a surface trough.
TA are you on? I have a question for you?
Quoting sar2401:

Nothing here. 96 degrees with a 71 dewpoint, giving me a pleasant 103 heat index. You'd think something has to happen with those conditions...


It's backed off to a more normal .98" per hour rate. But I picked up 1.26" of rain in about 15 minutes.
Quoting CosmicEvents:

I might be wrong but I don't think we've had more than 1 or 2 storms, form in this area in the last 100 years or so in the mid-June timeframe. The main area for development historically is the Western Carib in this time frame.

It's really the GOM, BOC, and, as we move into later June, it starts to be Florida and further up the East Coast. Climatology and present conditions favor the little yellow circle now more the western Caribbean
Quoting 426. StormWx:

Some may be wishing or hoping for the NHC to mention the t-storms off the coast of FL but unfortunately nothing of significance is going to come of it, except for some typical showers. Here is the 8am discussion!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Do have an umbrella handy though if you live in FL, always good to prepare :o)
Umm... that's not the DISCUSSION; that's the OUTLOOK. Not at all the same thing. The 8 a.m. discussion is considerably more detailed.
It helps to use basic terminology in a correct manner, so people will be clear about what you mean.
Quoting 575. nrtiwlnvragn:



GOM also








Link
WOW one near the cape verdes and the other near Guyana will like to know which storms were.
Quoting 582. Sfloridacat5:

I'm in S. Ft. Myers and I'm getting 8" per hour rain rates in my Vantate Vue weather station. I know it won't last, but it's really coming down.




We posted the same thing at the same time.
Euro ensembles have been saying 1.5 to 1.8C which seems very reasonable given that nino 3.4 is already at .6C with today's values and could be .6C on next Monday's CPC update.


i'm confused....with daily 3.4 enso values this week as low as 0.43 and now as of thursday a high at 0.59.....how are you expecting a weekly average value at 0.6 or above
Quoting BahaHurican:
Umm... that's not the DISCUSSION; that's the OUTLOOK. Not at all the same thing. The 8 a.m. discussion is considerably more detailed.
It helps to use basic terminology in a correct manner, so people will be clear about what you mean.


Ok. Was it in the discussion? lol
Quoting allancalderini:
I went with my classmates as our trip and it was fantastic the people its cool and all but the prices are really expensive and the worst part for us is that all is in dollars not lempiras,so it might be good for you but for us was a really expensive trip.XD you should come again and see they are new attractions too.Lets not talk about Tegus its really pollute.Tegucigalpa its not really an attractive place as its only functions for business.

Yeah, in some ways, the Bay Islands aren't really a part of Honduras. I've been there a couple of times now and, from talking to the Garifuna people there, they'd really like to somehow break off from Honduras. That's not politically or economically practical but the people there don't seem to feel much attachment to Honduras. If the stock market ever starts to behave, maybe I can afford another trip back. Tegucigalpa does have that airport though. Except for landing at Lukla, in Nepal, it's the only place I've flown into where the whole planeload of passengers claps when we touch down. :-)
Guys please take note. Look at radar just off coast of East central Florida! Melbourne radar looks Loke a storm is spinning up! Spin rain bands even or am I seeing things!?
Quoting ricderr:
Euro ensembles have been saying 1.5 to 1.8C which seems very reasonable given that nino 3.4 is already at .6C with today's values and could be .6C on next Monday's CPC update.


i'm confused....with daily 3.4 enso values this week as low as 0.43 and now as of thursday a high at 0.59.....how are you expecting a weekly average value at 0.6 or above


It appears the math, and the forecasts just dont add up lol.
Quoting 598. tropicalnewbee:

Guys please take note. Look at radar just off coast of East central Florida! Melbourne radar looks Loke a storm is spinning up! Spin rain bands even or am I seeing things!?
nhc gave it a yellow circle, I guess just in case but it has 0% chance they say today.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Umm... that's not the DISCUSSION; that's the OUTLOOK. Not at all the same thing. The 8 a.m. discussion is considerably more detailed.
It helps to use basic terminology in a correct manner, so people will be clear about what you mean.

And the 2:00 does indeed mention the low with a near 0% circle. Not much, but it does call it out, just as you and I talked about.
Quoting tropicalnewbee:
Guys please take note. Look at radar just off coast of East central Florida! Melbourne radar looks Loke a storm is spinning up! Spin rain bands even or am I seeing things!?


Nothing is spinning up, just an area of disturbed weather. Here is the 2pm discussion:



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS N
OF 27N.
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP IN
THIS AREA AND STRETCHES FROM 30N79W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
TO THE EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N60W.
THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N57W SW TO 26N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC WITH A PAIR OF 1025 MB
HIGH PRES CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 30N34W AND NEAR 28N42W. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE SEEN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. THE TROPICS REMAINS QUIET AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


So basically, just some rainy weather for those in FL.

Here is a Link to the full discussion.
Quoting tropicalnewbee:
Guys please take note. Look at radar just off coast of East central Florida! Melbourne radar looks Loke a storm is spinning up! Spin rain bands even or am I seeing things!?

I wouldn't say "spinning up" but there is a low out there, as noted by the NHC. Don't get too excited yet.
Quoting Grothar:


We posted the same thing at the same time.


Dog is completely freaking out. We just recently had a couple bolts explode right next to the house. One of them even made me jump and scared the day lights out of me. You just don't expect it.
You're just sitting there all relaxed and BOOM!
.
Quoting 607. Sfloridacat5:



Dog is completely freaking out. We just recently had a couple bolts explode right next to the house. One of them even made me jump and scared the day lights out of me. You just don't expect it.
You're just sitting there all relaxed and BOOM!
.


I know exactly what you mean. I feel the same way when Mrs. Grothar comes home.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

I'm not shocked. It really has no chance with 50 knots of shear, and not much of a structure to it.
Completely void of convection now, as well.

Umm, yes, I was kidding. I'm not really shocked. :-)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Dog is completely freaking out. We just recently had a couple bolts explode right next to the house. One of them even made me jump and scared the day lights out of me. You just don't expect it.
You're just sitting there all relaxed and BOOM!
.

Poor guy. Radar Dog is the same way. I don't know why thunder seems to affect so many dogs. My three cats could care less.
Quoting Grothar:


I know exactly what you mean. I feel the same way when Mrs. Grothar comes home.

Especially when she starts yelling because she doesn't see any vacuum tracks...
Sorry If this has already been posted, but apparently this farm house just outside of Pilger is the reason why the NWS Omaha brought in engineers. It appears to be bolted down very nicely.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
anyway the only reason NHC marked that E Fl AOI is because it just off the US Coast

Yes, that's why the NHC did that.

Geez...
That one line of storms is just training into the Fort Lauderdale/Palm Beach area.
Definitely not our normal summer T storm pattern with that Low off shore.

Quoting Ameister12:
Sorry If this has already been posted, but apparently this farm house just outside of Pilger is the reason why the NWS Omaha brought in engineers. It appears to be well anchored and bolted down.

Unless my eyes deceive me, it appears to be an anchor bolt pulled out of the perimeter foundation laying just to left of that water bottle. Assuming the structural engineers find the anchor bolts were properly placed and the wall was also well anchored, that would be EF-5 damage. Look at the damage to the basement walls as well, apparently from flying debris. At some point, trying to decide between 195 mph winds and 201 mph winds becomes pretty difficult.
Quoting 607. Sfloridacat5:



Dog is completely freaking out. We just recently had a couple bolts explode right next to the house. One of them even made me jump and scared the day lights out of me. You just don't expect it.
You're just sitting there all relaxed and BOOM!
.


My golden retriever went into extreme panic attack mode whenever he heard lightning, fireworks or bagpipes. Came back one thundery day to find him trapped in the bathroom, with diarrhea everywhere, paint and paper clawed off the walls, and his paws bloodied from the claws he'd lost.

I'd have had to have had him put down, if i'd lived in Florida.
Sorry If this has already been posted, but apparently this farm house just outside of Pilger is the reason why the NWS Omaha brought in engineers. It appears to be well anchored and bolted down.


hey am.....i'm not smart enough from a picture to tell you how it failed....but even though it's anchored ...it's not anchored well and there is evidence that where it was not anchored correctly there was damage.....

code for quite some time required bolts not more than 6 ft apart and not more than 12" from each plate end.....if you look to the bottom right of your picture you see a depression in the concrete which is there for the doorway.....there should be an anchor bolt there and there is not...nor is there damage evident that somehow that anchor was pulled out....notice that there's also no sill plate...it broke off until it reaches where the first anchor bolt is....did that cause the whole house to fail?.....i don't know....but it was an area prone to damage
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
IAC011-031-095-103-105-113-191945-
/O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0087.140619T1904Z-140619T1945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
204 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHEASTERN IOWA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 202 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEWHALL TO OXFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CEDAR RAPIDS...MECHANICSVILLE...WALFORD...ATKINS...FAIRF AX...
SHELLSBURG...SWISHER...PALO...SHUEYVILLE...LAKE MACBRIDE STATE
PARK...TODDVILLE...CENTER POINT...HIAWATHA...ELY...ROBINS...
MARION...BERTRAM...ALBURNETT...MOUNT VERNON AND LISBON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 225 AND 229.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 38.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE PLEASANT CREEK STATE RECREATION
AREA...LINN COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...HOWARD H CHERRY SCOUT RESERVATION...
PINICON RIDGE COUNTY PARK...WAKPICADA COUNTY PARK...SQUAW CREEK
PARK...MATSELL BRIDGE NATURAL AREA...BUFFALO CREEK COUNTY PARK AND
MORGAN CREEK PARK.


Just north of Coleridge. The KMZ file says 200 mph. Wow.

Quoting 595. ricderr:

Euro ensembles have been saying 1.5 to 1.8C which seems very reasonable given that nino 3.4 is already at .6C with today's values and could be .6C on next Monday's CPC update.


i'm confused....with daily 3.4 enso values this week as low as 0.43 and now as of thursday a high at 0.59.....how are you expecting a weekly average value at 0.6 or above


Between now and Sunday those values should be in the .6C to .8C range.
Unless my eyes deceive me, it appears to be an anchor bolt pulled out of the perimeter foundation laying just to left of that water bottle. Assuming the structural engineers find the anchor bolts were properly placed and the wall was also well anchored, that would be EF-5 damage. Look at the damage to the basement walls as well, apparently from flying debris. At some point, trying to decide between 195 mph winds and 201 mph winds becomes pretty difficult.

from enlarging it that appears to be a twig.......by the color of those anchors....i would guess they were an "L" style bolt placed when the concrete was poured......,,,by looking at it again though.....there does not appear to be any washers...just the bolt.....now for about 10 years a 3: washer was required and before that a 1 and a half inch was required
Between now and Sunday those values should be in the .6C to .8C range.


by tomorrow they'll beed to be above 0.7 for it to be a mathematically possibility
Heavy line of rain and possibly thunderstorms dropping down into the DC/Baltimore area, take caution.
Area to watch with lots of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
According to Direct Relief, these 10 counties are most likely to be overwhelmed by a hurricane (due to infrastructure, poverty level, etc)..

Texas: Houston, Walker, and Polk Counties.

Louisiana: Avoyelles Parish

Mississippi: Wilkinson, Issaquena, and Kemper Counties

Florida: DeSoto, Highlands and Glades Counties



Quoting 608. Grothar:



I know exactly what you mean. I feel the same way when Mrs. Grothar comes home.

Grothar had to sign in just to like this. So glad to see you back to your old self (which of course goes back before the earth was without form and void.)
Quoting yonzabam:


My golden retriever went into extreme panic attack mode whenever he heard lightning, fireworks or bagpipes. Came back one thundery day to find him trapped in the bathroom, with diarrhea everywhere, paint and paper clawed off the walls, and his paws bloodied from the claws he'd lost.

I'd have had to have had him put down, if i'd lived in Florida.


My German Shepard/Golden Retriever mix would just walk into the bathroom and close the door behind her whenever there was audible thunder.

Neither of my Labs is at all bothered by thunder.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I'm in S. Ft. Myers and I'm getting 8" per hour rain rates in my Vantate Vue weather station. I know it won't last, but it's really coming down.



4" in one hour did a number on me last week. (That number was 400L which came in around the basement sliding glass door seals.. that door looked like an aquarium when the outside entryway filled to a depth of 2.5 feet)
Oops! Uruguay just scored against England. Looking like an early exit from the Cup for England. Sorry about being off topic, but north Europeans don't cope with the Brazilian climate very well.
Quoting 630. georgevandenberghe:



My German Shepard/Golden Retriever mix would just walk into the bathroom and close the door behind her whenever there was audible thunder.

Neither of my Labs is at all bothered by thunder.
There is actually some indication that all that plumbing has an insulating effect protecting from the static electricity in the air. Also, anyone with a dog with thunderphobia should at least check out/ask their vet about the thundershirt. I've not actually seen one in action, but have heard good feedback on it. (I'm an Obedience trainer.)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough located about 75 miles east of the east-central
coast of Florida is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Surface pressures are relatively high in the region
and significant development of this system is not expected as it
drifts slowly northward during the next day or so. After that time,
conditions will remain unfavorable for development as the
disturbance accelerates northeastward ahead of an upper-level
trough.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Quoting 629. Wolfberry:


Grothar had to sign in just to like this. So glad to see you back to your old self (which of course goes back before the earth was without form and void.)



Wolf! Where've you been hiding. I know the wolf is an endagered species, but stop in more for the arguments, I mean discussions we have.
Quoting lhwhelk:
There is actually some indication that all that plumbing has an insulating effect protecting from the static electricity in the air. Also, anyone with a dog with thunderphobia should at least check out/ask their vet about the thundershirt. I've not actually seen one in action, but have heard good feedback on it. (I'm an Obedience trainer.)

Got a Thundershirt for Radar Dog. Didn't do squat. I've used "natural" pills of all types, heavy duty tranquilizers from the vet, and all manner of behavioral techniques. None of them have done squat except to slightly lessen the speed of his pacing. Interestingly, my bathroom is on an inside walls and has a fairly loud exhaust fan. When a storm is really bad, I move his bed in there, turn on the fan, and close the door. He's still not happy but he will eventually lay down in his bed and stop trying to scratch his way out. As long a storm comes in daylight, he just mostly lays under my desk and isn't too bad, except for his constant trembling. It's the nighttime storms, with the really brilliant lightning visible from the windows and the loud thunder that seems to terrify him the most. The bathroom trick works the best of anything I've tried.
Quoting Grothar:



Wolf! Where've you been hiding. I know the wolf is an endagered species, but stop in more for the arguments, I mean discussions we have.

I disagree...:-)
Unreal! The enso regions are taking off now.



Does anyone think the circle will be gone by 8pm or still be there?
PDO is just to high now to hold back this El-Nino now that the MJO has arrived. I suspect we are in for some serious warming finally as there are plus 5C anomalies awaiting below nino 3.4 and nino 3.

Looks like the kiss of death to the Atlantic 2014 Hurricane Season.




Unreal! The enso regions are taking off now.


be careful watching those daily values...... :-)
Quoting 638. StormTrackerScott:

Unreal! The enso regions are taking off now.






I always had faith in you. You da man!
Quoting 642. yonzabam:



I always had faith in you. You da man!


I know my fellow Texans are enjoying seeing what is going down now across the Pacific . This means rain and more rain from California to Florida starting later this Fall.
Quoting 641. ricderr:

Unreal! The enso regions are taking off now.


be careful watching those daily values...... :-)


I know as we need to look at the weekly averages but this is very significant and will likely have huge implications down the road as to the strength of this El-Nino.
If you are lucky enough to get a pet when they are young, never show you are afraid of lightning or thunder. They will imitate your behavior. Just ignore the noise and go about your normal routine. Do not show any emotion. None of our pets every reacted to thunderstorms, although they did react odd when a hurricane was about to strike. The same method applies to children. (Although fortunately, you don't have to deflea your kids)
Quoting 635. Grothar:




Wolf! Where've you been hiding. I know the wolf is an endagered species, but stop in more for the arguments, I mean discussions we have.


Haha Gro. I would but probably would get shot. I'm always lurking and keeping my eye out for the Blob Miester..


637. sar2401

I disagree...:-)

Sar, I would sign in to plus you but lord knows I'd run out of ink!!! Seriously, you continue to make great posts..I'd never admit that publicly but I'm always learning..
Quoting 638. StormTrackerScott:
Unreal! The enso regions are taking off now.





This... feels like a glitch, or at the very least a temporary spike compared to the overall flat trend. I'd love for it to be right, though. The stronger those anomalies get, the more our chances of rain increase in the fall.
Quoting 647. TimSoCal:



This... feels like a glitch, or at the very least a temporary spike compared to the overall flat trend. I'd love for it to be right, though. The stronger those anomalies get, the more our chances of rain increase in the fall.


Nop this is not a glitch it's the main show we been waiting for
Quoting 639. Climate175:

Does anyone think the circle will be gone by 8pm or still be there?


Yes.

:P
This... feels like a glitch, or at the very least a temporary spike compared to the overall flat trend. I'd love for it to be right, though. The stronger those anomalies get, the more our chances of rain increase in the fall.


have you ever seen regions 3 and 3.4 rise up the same amount at the same time?
0.5C (3,4) in one day is a heck of a 'spike'.
Sorry if this video already has been posted. I've never seen before a video of such a tornado with so many "little" white demons dancing around. It starts at 1.:25. Unfortunately they destroy a farm house later on.


Up-close, extreme video of bright white suction vortices dancing beneath a large cone tornado vortex near Woonsocket, South Dakota on June 18, 2014 from Dick McGowan and Shay Phillips of Team Dominator.
Quoting 581. DDR:

CaribBoy tell us when it comes down heavy,we'll know then that your happy :)


No heavy rains so far... no thunder either :-( All the heavy stuff stayed at our doorstep and moved northward. We got regular light-moderate showers since noon... and limited amounts of rain.


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Unreal! The enso regions are taking off now.




Scott, just yesterday you were a little unsure. Maybe it would be a good idea to wait a few days and make sure those values are real.
656. kremb
Is Montana/Southern Alberta in for a rough ride? I think about Shelby from time to time.



GFS model 500 hPa with RH - June 20 20:00 - null school
Quoting 654. CaribBoy:



No heavy rains so far... no thunder either :-( All the heavy stuff stayed at our doorstep and moved northward. We got regular light-moderate showers since noon... and limited amounts of rain.



CaribBoy in my area, it is pouring heavy rain right now i wish there was a way i could send this to ya.
maybe invest soon!!
Quoting Grothar:
If you are lucky enough to get a pet when they are young, never show you are afraid of lightning or thunder. They will imitate your behavior. Just ignore the noise and go about your normal routine. Do not show any emotion. None of our pets every reacted to thunderstorms, although they did react odd when a hurricane was about to strike. The same method applies to children. (Although fortunately, you don't have to deflea your kids)

Well, maybe your kids...:-)

Radar Dog belongs to my fiance. Well, he's sort of my dog now. He's 11 years old, was a yard dog most of his life, and had to hide in his igloo when a storm came. He was a very undisciplined dog when I first met him a year and half ago but now he's a house dog, doesn't bark unless there's really something to bark at, and heels when we go for walks. I have the feeling he wouldn't be so afraid of storms if I had him since he was a puppy.
Scott, just yesterday you were a little unsure. Maybe it would be a good idea to wait a few days and make sure those values are real.


ahem....someone has to keep the crow factory in biz
Quoting 655. sar2401:


Scott, just yesterday you were a little unsure. Maybe it would be a good idea to wait a few days and make sure those values are real.


The models that predicted Westerlies in the second half of June are coming into being.
Probably no stopping now.
The only question is moderate or heavy.
New convection bursts on the Eastern Florida AOL.
It's raining so freaking heavy outside.It looks like somebody is pouring a entire pool on us.
Quoting 652. yonzabam:

0.5C (3,4) in one day is a heck of a 'spike'.



You mean 0.7 for Nino 3.4 right now
Quoting 663. washingtonian115:

It's raining so freaking heavy outside.It looks like somebody is pouring a entire pool on us.
Say that again and it's still raining.
Quoting 663. washingtonian115:

It's raining so freaking heavy outside.It looks like somebody is pouring a entire pool on us.
Radar shows no rain over NW DC??? Or is it the radar i am using?
Quoting 666. Climate175:

Radar shows no rain over NW DC..
I'm currently in Beltsville M.D right now.When I get back to my house it'll be dry over there.
Quoting 667. washingtonian115:

I'm currently in Beltsville M.D right now.When I get back to my house it'll be dry over there.
Oh that explains it.
Quoting 638. StormTrackerScott:

Unreal! The enso regions are taking off now.





Yep.
if that short-term trend continues we'll be 10 degrees C over normal by July 4th.
Yikes.
Quoting 668. Climate175:

Oh that explains it.
I could've used that rain for my garden.Looks like I'll have to come out manually though and do it unless we get some pop up showers/storms later this evening.More activity coming from the west but looks like it's dodging to the south of the District.

Sorry ya'll had to see that..
Quoting 667. washingtonian115:

I'm currently in Beltsville M.D right now.When I get back to my house it'll be dry over there.


So you are stashing away all the rain in some parts of the US, hmm, lol? At my place in Germany I got some drops earlier this evening. It has been the first "rain" for several weeks. Whole spring has been too dry for most parts of my country. And no rain progged for the next ten days either.


Hydrological balance for Germany in June.
New 18Z sfc charts out
1019mb sfc low added to map E of Florida
A outflow boundary just SE of E Carib trop wave
Quoting 670. washingtonian115:

I could've used that rain for my garden.Looks like I'll have to come out manually though and do it unless we get some pop up showers/storms later this evening.More activity coming from the west but looks like it's dodging to the south of the District.
More storms will come in your path more likely this evening kind of like last night but not as severe.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's raining so freaking heavy outside.It looks like somebody is pouring a entire pool on us.

One mm in Riverdale. Don't need more but my N College Park garden which missed most of the 6/10 deluge, is drier and also missed most of this one. Very close shave.. Beltsville got pummelled according to radar.
Quoting 672. wunderkidcayman:

New 18Z sfc charts out
1019mb sfc low added to map E of Florida
A outflow boundary just SE of E Carib trop wave
You think NHC will keep the circle, someone before said no.
There's been a couple tornado warnings out in South Dakota.
Quoting 674. georgevandenberghe:


One mm in Riverdale. Don't need more but my N College Park garden which missed most of the 6/10 deluge, is drier and also missed most of this one. Very close shave.. Beltsville got pummelled according to radar.

Yeah it looked like someone dumped a entire Olympic pool out in Beltsville just now.Of course D.C drivers combined with rain= disaster and right now there's a little squabble on the road.

671. barbamz
9:01 PM GMT on June 19, 2014
Any where east of the Mississippi has been wet with the exception of some parts of the south.Mainly here in the Mid-Atlantic and North-east we've been stashing rain away ever since last November.The rainy pattern hasn't stopped since.It came in the form of snow during the winter.
Quoting 673. Climate175:

More storm will come in your path more likely this evening kind of like last night but not as severe.
I'am going to water my garden anyway.I don't want my flowers looking wilted in the morning.
Wild weather hits the United States
BBC weather video, 19 June 2014 Last updated at 18:40
Tornadoes ripped through South Dakota damaging homes, while the western states battled wildfire. Helen Willetts has more.
Storms have completely changed direction today in Southwest Florida. They were moving on a more northerly track... they are clearly under the influence of some type of Low to the northeast now.
Tornado warning up in Minn.
Quoting 638. StormTrackerScott:

Unreal! The enso regions are taking off now.




Has to be a glitch or something :O
According to the Hydrometeor classification, the tornado warned storm in SD is producing hail of a decent size. Nothing for debris on the CC.

Low off the coast of Florida is moving towards the N.E. away from the coast.
NWS Omaha @NWSOmaha · 15m
Cedar county tornado(s) have been rated as EF3. Still taking time to discern how many tornadoes occurred on 6/17/2014.

Guess the Mediterranean is another area which is stashing away the rain. This has been in Fasano (South-eastern Italy) yesterday. Usually they should have nice and dry weather during summer for all the vacationers down there, while the rain annoys the people staying home more north ;-)


Flash flood in Varna/Bulgaria/Black Sea today. Source: Ivailo Petrov

Edit:
Heavy rains, floods hit Bulgaria; 10 people killed
Reuters/EuroNews, 20/06 00:15 CET
SOFIA (Reuters) - Torrential rains and floods hit Bulgaria on Thursday, killing at least 10 people, cutting off electricity, blocking roads and sparking evacuations, officials said.
Heavy rainfall in the Black Sea resort city of Varna triggered a flood wave late on Thursday in one of its low-laying suburbs that killed at least 10 people, the mayor of Varna told the national radio.
TV footage showed smashed cars on top of each other on the streets of the suburb, where a state of emergency was declared.
"The tragedy is enormous. I am here on a street in the suburb of Aspruhovo. The street is not here, the houses are not here, there are cars on top of each other," Varna mayor Ivan Portnih said. ...

Quoting 683. Sfloridacat5:

Low off the coast of Florida is moving towards the N.E. away from the coast.


The NHC says it's not going anywhere until Saturday, at least.
Quoting 681. Gearsts:
Has to be a glitch or something :O


If it's not a glitch, then something(likely cold upwelling at depth, in which case this surface trend won't last) is pushing up the remaining part of that big subsurface warm pool.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REFLECTED BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE EAST
COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP PWAT IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE WITH A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. SO THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE OTHER THAN YOUR
POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORM AND AN AVERAGE STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 5 MPH. THE AVERAGE CAPE IS LOOKING TO BE AROUND 1200-1300
J/KG AND THIS WOULD TEND TO PRODUCE THE AVERAGE GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORM. SO THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
This low off the coast is reminding me of the way Claudette formed in 2009.Shear isn't to bad and sst are warm enough to support some thing.I've seen lows pop up into storms out of no where

(T.D 1 in 2009,Claudette 2009,Alberto 2012)

As always we'll see I guess....
Quoting 684. CybrTeddy:

NWS Omaha @NWSOmaha 15m
Cedar county tornado(s) have been rated as EF3. Still taking time to discern how many tornadoes occurred on 6/17/2014.

That makes absolutely no sense given the damage to the house north-northeast of Coleridge (pictured). The wind estimate for that point in the .kmz file is 200 mph--that's much more reasonable.

T.S claudette 2009.

Forming out of a tropical wave and an upper-level low pressure system

Hmmm.
Quoting 691. washingtonian115:

T.S claudette 2009.

Forming out of a tropical wave and an upper-level low pressure system

Hmmm.
NHC may up the chances to 10% if convection holds and if it can make it down to the surface. 1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS AREA...
AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. This was Claudette in it's forming stages, sounds familiar to today's system doesn't it?


Massive waterspout/tornado (?) today in Istanbul/Turkey. Here is a short closeup video on instagram.

Estofex had been right with it's Storm Forecast:
Valid: Thu 19 Jun 2014 06:00 to Fri 20 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 18 Jun 2014 22:52, Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for north-western Turkey mainly for very large hail, tornadoes, and to a lower extend excessive rain and severe wind gusts.
A level 2 was issued for eastern Bulgaria and north-eastern Greece mainly for excessive rain.
Getting a big one here. lot of wind on the leading edge.


invest coming soon!
Anybody in the D.C area

TORNADO WARNING for E PG, S AA, and Calvert Co til 6:15p. Radar indicates poss tornado near Dunkirk moving SE at 20 mph.
Quoting 691. washingtonian115:

T.S claudette 2009.

Forming out of a tropical wave and an upper-level low pressure system

Hmmm.
I was thinking of the same system XD great minds think alike.
Quoting 613. Ameister12:

Sorry If this has already been posted, but apparently this farm house just outside of Pilger is the reason why the NWS Omaha brought in engineers. It appears to be bolted down very nicely.


I think this church was also a candidate. It was completely destroyed. Note the tree debarking on the left side and intense ground scouring the background, two context clues the NWS uses when assigning an EF5 rating.

.kmz file says this was 188 mph, which is the highest I can find.



EDIT: I found these two points (same structure) with a 191 mph wind estimate:




This whole line in MN is tornado warned. The velocities seem to indicate the potential for some brief spinups or gustnadoes.



N Calvert Co: rotating storm is over you... please seek shelter if you have not already.
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Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather · 45s
RT @DCAbloob: At 5:26 pm, a trained spotter reported rotation and a funnel cloud to the east of Clinton, MD. #mdwx
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Have had a very busy afternoon and looking at the stationary trof off the coast of Florida. Sheer has dropped about 10 knots (from 20 knots this morning) and the shear tendency is modeled to drop a little bit more. Worth keeping an eye on if it lingers around and does not get absorbed by the front to the North. It would probably continue to move very slowly towards the NE, away from the coast, regardless of potential development but is an interesting watch. There is plenty of vorticity at the mid levels and a portion of that is trying to work down to the surface (850 mb chart below). but the upper levels (200 mb chart below) are still dominated by the upper level low.

850mb


200mb
Quoting CosmicEvents:

The NHC says it's not going anywhere until Saturday, at least.


It's definitely moving (ever so slowly) away from the coast.
We'll see if it stays put or slowly says good bye to Florida over the next day or two.

Quoting 675. Climate175:

You think NHC will keep the circle, someone before said no.

The only reason NHC circled the E Fl AOI is because it's near Florida so until it changes and shows sign of actual tropical development then it will remain yellow 0% until area dissipates then blank map
Quoting 697. allancalderini:

I was thinking of the same system XD great minds think alike.
Well this system surely has the best potential out of any storm so far this month.
Here's where HRRR put it a 4am tomorrow.

Quoting 703. wunderkidcayman:


The only reason NHC circled the E Fl AOI is because it's near Florida so until it changes and shows sign of actual tropical development then it will remain yellow 0% until area dissipates then blank map

Lol.Not to attack you WKC but the disturbance in the caribbean had less favorable conditions and you were cheering it on yesterday.This low has better conditions and is actually tying to work it's way down.

Because it's not in the N.W caribbean is why it won't form?.

Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather 28s
Tornado warning for E PG, S AA, Calvert county is discontinued
Gotta Go.  Will check back with everyone in the am but will note that the overall odds for development of the Florida mess is small for June. Probably about a 1 in 10 chance; we usually have better luck in the Gulf and Western Caribbean this time of the year but nothing there at the moment so this is the only "blob" in town at the moment.................................... :)   
seems as if the weak low pressure which is over cape canaveral will be moving slowly north we did not get much more than a sprinkle so far. e cen fl.
709. beell
Sunday Morning Blog post 06/15

661. beell
2:45 PM GMT on June 15, 2014

About the only thing of potential interest in the Atlantic over the next 2-3 days MAY be off the southeast coast/northern Bahamas as a weak upper level shortwave or shear axis with a southward drifting mid-level reflection generates some showers and thunderstorms in a low shear environment. Surface pressures are high along the tail end of the old frontal boundary but a continuation of a surface trough underneath the disturbance is possible.


06/15 06Z GFS 500 mb vort-valid Tuesday morning.

A tickle in the clouds off the NC/SC coasts this morning:



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N69W TO 22N70W
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...

Chance of development would be less than ½%. Chance of storm-starved WU blob alert at 50%.
Another quiet day. Temp did hit 90 for the first time in over a week. Deep seabreeze keeping sky clear.
from now on any stalled out front or low level trough will be needed to watched closely next wk western gulf.
712. flsky
The bathroom sounds like a good idea, except it might take your being in there with him. With my dog, I just put him in the quietest part of the house and speak calmly while petting him. It helps him keep calm and lets him know that he's not on his own with the frightening
sounds.

Quoting 636. sar2401:


Got a Thundershirt for Radar Dog. Didn't do squat. I've used "natural" pills of all types, heavy duty tranquilizers from the vet, and all manner of behavioral techniques. None of them have done squat except to slightly lessen the speed of his pacing. Interestingly, my bathroom is on an inside walls and has a fairly loud exhaust fan. When a storm is really bad, I move his bed in there, turn on the fan, and close the door. He's still not happy but he will eventually lay down in his bed and stop trying to scratch his way out. As long a storm comes in daylight, he just mostly lays under my desk and isn't too bad, except for his constant trembling. It's the nighttime storms, with the really brilliant lightning visible from the windows and the loud thunder that seems to terrify him the most. The bathroom trick works the best of anything I've tried.
That low off the E Coast of FL is actually decreasing rain coverage across the Central FL Peninsula. These systems to our east usually do. We had one weak, broken line of showers move through early this afternoon, but I was under the impression we were in for high rain coverage and intense storms today. S FL appears to be getting numerous showers and thunderstorms though.
I'm back home on my computer now.Nothing has happened here so I will have to water the garden myself...I wouldn't mind tracking a weak T.S storm.Kinda like Alberto.He was fun to track.
Quoting 716. washingtonian115:

I'm back home on my computer now.Nothing has happened here so I will have to water the garden myself...I wouldn't mind tracking a weak T.S storm.Kinda like Alberto.He was fun to track.
When NHC issues their outlook early it means that nothing has changed but if they take their time you know something is going on. It happened at 2 pm today.
Nothing quite like 3 inch/hr rain rates and 30 to 40 mph gusts and intense lightning with full sun, gotta love Florida weather!

This isn't the first time I've seen this either.
Quoting 712. flsky:

The bathroom sounds like a good idea, except it might take your being in there with him. With my dog, I just put him in the quietest part of the house and speak calmly while petting him. It helps him keep calm and lets him know that he's not on his own with the frightening
sounds.






Nice strategy, hmm? And you wouldn't fit in as well, lol. BTW, a lot of videos available on youtube with the keywords "dog" and "thunderstorm".
Have a nice evening and good night.
Quoting 715. HurrMichaelOrl:

That low off the E Coast of FL is actually decreasing rain coverage across the Central FL Peninsula. These systems to our east usually do. We had one weak, broken line of showers move through early this afternoon, but I was under the impression we were in for high rain coverage and intense storms today. S FL appears to be getting numerous showers and thunderstorms though.


Often a stable layer or cap is present on the west side of these systems. There were many convective towers that looked impressive today, like that of which normally leads to strong thunderstorms, but most of them flattened out and then dissipated. Here we had a massive convective buildup that took over an hour to break through the stable layer, once it did we had a lot of intense lightning, rain and wind, and on the back side we had full sun with still a ton of rain, wind and lightning, which was an interesting sight.
Quoting 717. Climate175:

When NHC issues their outlook early it means that nothing has changed but if they take their time you know something is going on. It happened at 2 pm today.
I have seen things go from having no circle to code orange.even code red at times.Maybe the NHC will give Wu a apology after some members raised hell for not giving 90L a T.D classification and give this thing some sort of classification.lol.
Just saw this in addition to post 685:

Heavy rains, floods hit Bulgaria; 10 people killed
Reuters/EuroNews, 20/06 00:15 CET
SOFIA (Reuters) - Torrential rains and floods hit Bulgaria on Thursday, killing at least 10 people, cutting off electricity, blocking roads and sparking evacuations, officials said.
Heavy rainfall in the Black Sea resort city of Varna triggered a flood wave late on Thursday in one of its low-laying suburbs that killed at least 10 people, the mayor of Varna told the national radio.
TV footage showed smashed cars on top of each other on the streets of the suburb, where a state of emergency was declared.
"The tragedy is enormous. I am here on a street in the suburb of Aspruhovo. The street is not here, the houses are not here, there are cars on top of each other," Varna mayor Ivan Portnih said. ...









Source (now 11 confirmed dead, more missing).


Source.

Edit:
Photo Gallery on Daily Mail

Political war of words over fatal floods in Bulgaria's Varna
Written by The Sofia Globe staff on June 20, 2014 in Bulgaria


Source. Rain 24h in Bulgaria, June 19.

some of the models are hinting at a low developing where the purple is near africa..

Quoting 723. ncstorm:

some of the models are hinting at a low developing where the purple is near africa..


I still believe we had a tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic last June.The NHC just waited to late.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:14 PM PDT on June 19, 2014
Clear
87.3 °F
Clear
Humidity: 35%
Dew Point: 56 °F
Wind: 8.0 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 21.0 mph
Pressure: 29.83 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 86 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
88.7F here, 91 at KRAL (Airport)


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak low pressure area located about 75 miles east of the
east-central coast of Florida is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not
expected while it drifts slowly northward during the next day or
so. After that time, conditions should remain unfavorable for
development while the disturbance accelerates northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 726. Climate175:

Corrected formation chance through 5 days to 10 percent

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak low pressure area located about 75 miles east of the
east-central coast of Florida is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not
expected while it drifts slowly northward during the next day or
so. After that time, conditions should remain unfavorable for
development while the disturbance accelerates northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Yellow circle coming soon?.Maybe,maybe not...
Quoting 727. washingtonian115:

Yellow circle coming soon?.Maybe,maybe not...
Oh the yellow circle is already there.
The yellow circle represents a glimmer of hope for those tropically starved Wu bloggers.lol.
Quoting 725. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:14 PM PDT on June 19, 2014
Clear
87.3 F
Clear
Humidity: 35%
Dew Point: 56 F
Wind: 8.0 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 21.0 mph
Pressure: 29.83 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 86 F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
88.7F here, 91 at KRAL (Airport)



In the same boat Ped
Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Thu, 19 Jun 4:37 pm (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Thu, 19 Jun 4:30 pm PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Chill Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (f) (mph)
19 Jun 4:30 pm PDT 87 28 12 NW 8G14 OK

Quoting 729. washingtonian115:

The yellow circle represents a glimmer of hope for those tropically starved Wu bloggers.lol.
lol, i am doing this for the people who have been crying for development and saying i can't wait for August.
Quoting 718. Jedkins01:

Nothing quite like 3 inch/hr rain rates and 30 to 40 mph gusts and intense lightning with full sun, gotta love Florida weather!

This isn't the first time I've seen this either.


Yes we got about 3 inches of rain last year in Sooo Cal....... it was a tremendous rate!
Interesting feature ESE of Hawaii(around 10N 130W). MIMIC shows a spin starting up.



IR loop

NHC hasn't broken out the crayon yet, maybe because it's in no man's land right now.
Quoting 734. TimSoCal:

Interesting feature ESE of Hawaii(around 10N 130W). MIMIC shows a spin starting up.



IR loop

NHC hasn't broken out the crayon yet, maybe because it's in no man's land right now.
Is your username suppose to be Tim southern California? or Tim so California?
Quoting 735. washingtonian115:

Is your username suppose to be Tim southern California? or Tim so California?


Southern, lol
Quoting 736. TimSoCal:



Southern, lol
Notice the spin also off of the east coast of Florida.
Quoting 682. WIBadgerWeather:

According to the Hydrometeor classification, the tornado warned storm in SD is producing hail of a decent size. Nothing for debris on the CC.




The gray ground clutter around the radar site looks like a hurricane with a small diameter eye.
I see why they circled that. It looks frightening

Quoting 736. TimSoCal:



Southern, lol


Now that Washi brought it up, you're handle always reminded me of a diet drink. Everytime you come on here I get thirsty.
And another one bites the dust...
Did you have a wet day Grothar? Up here in Lake Worth, mostly cloudy with a few showers. Nothing heavy.
So now the weather is causing terrorists to kill people.....

The left will do ANYTHING to ignore the fact that there is a war against terrorism. Only a matter of time before the next crusade......

Perhaps when a nuclear device is detonated in New York City, perceptions will change. Notice I did say when....... not if.....

I long for the day this was a weather blog, instead of a platform to push liberal agenda. Sadly those days are long gone......

I also notice the climate is still changing..... something that has been happening for Billions of years...... Not even sure why I post here anymore. i guess nostalgia......
The most beautiful rainbow is to our east right now in Fort Lauderdale right now. Mrs. Grothar told me to make a wish. I did, but she kept talking anyway.
Quoting 743. thelmores:

So now the weather is causing terrorists to kill people.....

The left will do ANYTHING to ignore the fact that there is a war against terrorism. Only a matter of time before the next crusade......

Perhaps when a nuclear device is detonated in New York City, perceptions will change. Notice I did say when....... not if.....

I long for the day this was a weather blog, instead of a platform to push liberal agenda. Sadly those days are long gone......

I also notice the climate is still changing..... something that has been happening for Billions of years...... Not even sure why I post here anymore. i guess nostalgia......


I'm part of the left and agree with your statement..100 percent..
Quoting 742. GeoffreyWPB:

Did you have a wet day Grothar? Up here in Lake Worth, mostly cloudy with a few showers. Nothing heavy.



Very heavy rains and a lot of flooding.
Quoting 727. washingtonian115:

Yellow circle coming soon?.Maybe,maybe not...
You mean orange right?
Quoting 739. Grothar:

I see why they circled that. It looks frightening


Looks like Bonnie of 2010 ;p
Quoting 721. washingtonian115:

I have seen things go from having no circle to code orange.even code red at times.Maybe the NHC will give Wu a apology after some members raised hell for not giving 90L a T.D classification and give this thing some sort of classification.lol.
Imo it was a ts.
Hoping for a remnant tropical system for Soo Cal this summer/fall if El Nino kicks in! The tuna are already biting because the waters are warmer than usual already. I have lived in Soo Cal since 1966, never really kept track of the ocean water temps, but rarely have I seen it above 75 F.
749. JRRP
.HISPANIOLA...
RELATIVELY FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED TODAY OVER
HISPANIOLA...AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SATURDAY...ENHANCING THE DIURNAL LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION
.


yeah!
Quoting 747. allancalderini:

You mean orange right?Looks like Bonnie of 2010 ;pImo it was a ts.
Maybe a classification after the season is done.

I thought the disturbance was a code yellow.I wish we had a ship just like Alberto did.
Name this man.
Quoting 744. Grothar:

The most beautiful rainbow is to our east right now in Fort Lauderdale right now. Mrs. Grothar told me to make a wish. I did, but she kept talking anyway.


Some things more important than a pot of gold eh?
Quoting 751. Climate175:

Name this man.
Stacy Stewart
Quoting thelmores:
So now the weather is causing terrorists to kill people.....

The left will do ANYTHING to ignore the fact that there is a war against terrorism. Only a matter of time before the next crusade......

Perhaps when a nuclear device is detonated in New York City, perceptions will change. Notice I did say when....... not if.....

I long for the day this was a weather blog, instead of a platform to push liberal agenda. Sadly those days are long gone......

I also notice the climate is still changing..... something that has been happening for Billions of years...... Not even sure why I post here anymore. i guess nostalgia......


Quoting 754. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Stacy Stewart
Good because some people i bet don't know some of the Hurricane Specialists.
You know, I never will understand why some users feel the need to become a political instigator to complain about the lack of weather discussion when literally everyone else but them is talking about weather. The last 10,000 comments and 11 blog entries have been dedicated to a tornado outbreak and tropical cyclones -- and the Atlantic hasn't even seen a named storm yet.
Quoting 755. CybrTeddy:






Quoting 732. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Yes we got about 3 inches of rain last year in Sooo Cal....... it was a tremendous rate!


Yearly total was 63 inches last year here and about 50 fell from June through September, it was a very busy rain season last year here. The average year is 56, so we ended up a bit above it, I hate drought, I can't imagine only 3 in one year.

Quoting 756. Climate175:

Good because some people i bet don't know some of the Hurricane Specialists.


Name em all


Quoting 738. HurricaneHunterJoe:



The gray ground clutter around the radar site looks like a hurricane with a small diameter eye.


Because it is in SD, we could call it "Hurricane Pierre"!
Quoting 758. ncstorm:






I don't think I've seen anything that could sum up Star Wars after 1983 better.
Quoting 743. thelmores:

So now the weather is causing terrorists to kill people.....

The left will do ANYTHING to ignore the fact that there is a war against terrorism. Only a matter of time before the next crusade......

Perhaps when a nuclear device is detonated in New York City, perceptions will change. Notice I did say when....... not if.....

I long for the day this was a weather blog, instead of a platform to push liberal agenda. Sadly those days are long gone......

I also notice the climate is still changing..... something that has been happening for Billions of years...... Not even sure why I post here anymore. i guess nostalgia......


I agree with you in part, the drought likely had little to do with Syria's blight of hate and sectarian slaughter. As historical water supplies continue to rapidly retreat AGW will be a leading cause in future conflicts. Little doubt of this. AGW is not a liberal agenda, it is proven and unquestionably happening. AGW is a global problem and is neither right nor left. FBI has said within ten years it is highly likely a nuclear devise will be detonated on a major Western city by terrorists. And no to the crusades. More like when Israel, with the West bomb Iran, it'll lead to WWIII against Syria, Iran, Russia, China on one side versus the allies in the West. ISIS, AQ in the Arabia Peninsula, and numerous other splinter Al Qaida groups are on the rise with hundreds of Americans, Brits, and other Westerns in the mix. Going to come home to roost. The left is in no way denying this. Yes Obama some time ago said we had them on the run, but has over and over again said that is not now the case. Not helpful to make this a left right debate for whom is to blame. There is more than enough blame for both parties to go around.

Quoting 762. CybrTeddy:



I don't think I've seen anything that could sum up Star Wars after 1983 better.


LOL..you would be surprise at the nonsense posted on the internet..there is all kinds of "stuff"..I did like your gif though..better than the star trek facepalm that is posted thousands of time on here..

have a good evening all..
Quoting 755. CybrTeddy:



a




That's funny!!!!!!!!
The flowers and yard have been watered.Hopefully D.C does not get skipped by the rain next time.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

The only reason NHC circled the E Fl AOI is because it's near Florida so until it changes and shows sign of actual tropical development then it will remain yellow 0% until area dissipates then blank map

Wrong forecast on that one.
Quoting 756. Climate175:

Good because some people i bet don't know some of the Hurricane Specialists.


I sure don't know all their names.......Stewart and Avila are my personal favorites over the years
Quoting 768. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I sure don't know all their names.......Stewart and Avila are my personal favorites over the years
Mine too! They do a really good job.
Quoting Climate175:
Name this man.

Let's see. The photo is named "Stacy Stewart.jpg" and it came from the NHC...think, think...dang, sorry, not a clue. :-)
Quoting beell:
Sunday Morning Blog post 06/15

661. beell
2:45 PM GMT on June 15, 2014

About the only thing of potential interest in the Atlantic over the next 2-3 days MAY be off the southeast coast/northern Bahamas as a weak upper level shortwave or shear axis with a southward drifting mid-level reflection generates some showers and thunderstorms in a low shear environment. Surface pressures are high along the tail end of the old frontal boundary but a continuation of a surface trough underneath the disturbance is possible.


06/15 06Z GFS 500 mb vort-valid Tuesday morning.

A tickle in the clouds off the NC/SC coasts this morning:



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N69W TO 22N70W
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...

Chance of development would be less than ½%. Chance of storm-starved WU blob alert at 50%.

LOL. Pretty good job of forecasting on all fronts with that one. :-)
Quoting 755. CybrTeddy:





I am laughing a lot harder then I should be at that gif. XD XD XD


is that rain in California i see
Isn't their a forecaster named Landsea..
Quoting 743. thelmores:

So now the weather is causing terrorists to kill people.....

The left will do ANYTHING to ignore the fact that there is a war against terrorism. Only a matter of time before the next crusade......

Perhaps when a nuclear device is detonated in New York City, perceptions will change. Notice I did say when....... not if.....

I long for the day this was a weather blog, instead of a platform to push liberal agenda. Sadly those days are long gone......

I also notice the climate is still changing..... something that has been happening for Billions of years...... Not even sure why I post here anymore. i guess nostalgia......

Not sure what you are talking about. I think this is an excellent post. Oh well. opinions differ. Nothing is keeping you here if you wish to leave. Just do so peacefully :)
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Isn't their a forecaster named Landsea..
Yes there is.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

Corrected formation chance through 5 days to 10 percent

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak low pressure area located about 75 miles east of the
east-central coast of Florida is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not
expected while it drifts slowly northward during the next day or
so. After that time, conditions should remain unfavorable for
development while the disturbance accelerates northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 10 percent.
Quoting 774. JrWeathermanFL:

Isn't their a forecaster named Landsea..


Yep, wrote the most recent Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.
Quoting 734. TimSoCal:

Interesting feature ESE of Hawaii(around 10N 130W). MIMIC shows a spin starting up.



IR loop

NHC hasn't broken out the crayon yet, maybe because it's in no man's land right now.

they wont need to. shear will only increase. GFS showing it opening up in a few days if not sooner. it may brush hawaii with some enhanced moisture but will probably just tighten the gradient between the sub tropic high and its self. the only advisory we will be getting is a small craft advisory.
I think we will see Arthur at the end of the month. Maybe when conditions get more conducive, we can get something going.
Quoting 760. nrtiwlnvragn:



Name em all




I do recognize Lixion Avila, Jack Bevin, Mike Brennan, Dan Brown, Richard Pasch, John Cangilosi, Eric Blake, Robie Berg. Sorry I can't remember them all.
Quoting 753. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Some things more important than a pot of gold eh?


LOL
Quoting 760. nrtiwlnvragn:



Name em all



i know Berg is the one with the green shirt,Avila is the one with the orange shirt.Specialist Beven is the one at the back of specialist Stewart.James is the one with the tie.Specialist Cangialosi is next to Avila and at the back is forecaster blake( When I first hear of him I thought he was someone really old).Specialist Brennan is next to Stewart with a gray shirt.
Quoting 781. Grothar:



Quoting 760. nrtiwlnvragn:



Name em all





Berg, Brown, Avilia, Roberts, Cangialosi, Blake, Kimberlain, Pasch, Brennan, Beven, Stewart, Landsea, Franklin
Quoting 767. sar2401:


Wrong forecast on that one.


****Disclaimer**** Not the real TWO lol

the TWO should say that an area of low pressure has formed East of Florida and conditions are very favorable for development, but since it is not in the Western Caribbean there is a low chance....near 0% of development over the next 48 and a -40% chance of development over the next 5 days lol
Quoting 755. CybrTeddy:




That's how I felt during the almost completely snowless D.C winter in 011-012
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




Berg, Brown, Avilia, Roberts, Cangialosi, Blake, Kimberlain, Pasch, Brennan, Beven, Stewart, Landsea, Franklin


Oh man, my Black Sabbath guess was going to be way off. Glad I didn't post that one. :P
Quoting CybrTeddy:
You know, I never will understand why some users feel the need to become a political instigator to complain about the lack of weather discussion when literally everyone else but them is talking about weather. The last 10,000 comments and 11 blog entries have been dedicated to a tornado outbreak and tropical cyclones -- and the Atlantic hasn't even seen a named storm yet.

Hmmm -
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3789

I've been here a year longer and I swear I don't remember any other comments by this poster. Apparently made quite an impression on me.
Odd, I don't remember Sar saying boo until about a year ago ... though even that seems longer.
There is some curvature in the clouds of the blob of moisture coming up North from the South of Cuba,wondering what is going to happens when it reach the Bahamas or the Straight of Florida, in my opinion very little shear in this area.
Most of it missing us.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


****Disclaimer**** Not the real TWO lol

the TWO should say that an area of low pressure has formed East of Florida and conditions are very favorable for development, but since it is not in the Western Caribbean there is a low chance....near 0% of development over the next 48 and a -40% chance of development over the next 5 days lol

LOL. I was thinking along the same lines but didn't want to get flagged - again. :-)
Quoting 786. Hurricanes101:



****Disclaimer**** Not the real TWO lol

the TWO should say that an area of low pressure has formed East of Florida and conditions are very favorable for development, but since it is not in the Western Caribbean there is a low chance....near 0% of development over the next 48 and a -40% chance of development over the next 5 days lol
LMAO true!.He was cheering on the sheared blob in the western caribbean yesterday that was getting destroyed.But since it was in his back yard it was bound to form.This low has a decent shot but because it's not in the western caribbean it must be annihilated.
Quoting sar2401:

Hmmm -
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3789

I've been here a year longer and I swear I don't remember any other comments by this poster. Apparently made quite an impression on me.


Thelmore? Nah, he's been blogging for a while on here. Never knew, or cared, about thelmore's stance on climate change. Provided great imagery and graphics during hurricane season. That being said, this place is still the best source for weather enthusiasts on the Internet that I can think of in terms of tropical cyclone discussion. I wouldn't be wasting my time on here if I thought otherwise.
thelmores has been here a long time and is/was quite active on the WU hurricane blogs..the drawing/squiggly line on weather maps is his trademark..anyone who has been a member here that long would know that..those who don't remember and have been here longer than 2 years, well I suggest you take some Vitamin B or just count it towards old age..

Quoting Hurricane1956:
There is some curvature in the clouds of the blob of moisture coming up North from the South of Cuba,wondering what is going to happens when it reach the Bahamas or the Straight of Florida, in my opinion very little shear in this area.

Go back a few days and watch the loop. You'll see the same batch of thunderstorms develop during the day and then die back after sunset. There has been a broad trough of low pressure from Cuba to the Pacific side of Nicaragua and Costa Rica for about five days, and that's what's been kicking off the thunderstorms. Surface pressures aren't lowering and there's been no organization to these storms, so the amount of shear really won't make it any more or less likely for development. I sometimes get the feeling it's been so long since we had a decent TS that people are starting to see a potential storm in every passing swirl. :-)
That seems prudent.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thelmore? Nah, he's been blogging for a while on here. Never knew, or cared, about thelmore's stance on climate change. Provided great imagery and graphics during hurricane season. That being said, this place is still the best source for weather enthusiasts on the Internet that I can think of in terms of tropical cyclone discussion. I wouldn't be wasting my time on here if I thought otherwise.

I must plead either old age or just so long that we've had a bunch of storms that I'd forgotten then. If I felt this wasn't a worthwhile place to hang around, I think I'd just shuffle off and not make a to-do about it. However, back in the days when we got overrun with trolls, I would go off to other forums for a break. Some of them are pretty good, but I never found one with as many members with as broad a level of knowledge as I have here.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




Berg, Brown, Avilia, Roberts, Cangialosi, Blake, Kimberlain, Pasch, Brennan, Beven, Stewart, Landsea, Franklin

Well, rats. I was certain it was the back field of the 1989 Cleveland Browns at some kind of reunion. :-)
Quoting 785. nrtiwlnvragn:





Berg, Brown, Avilia, Roberts, Cangialosi, Blake, Kimberlain, Pasch, Brennan, Beven, Stewart, Landsea, Franklin


Hey, what do want. I haven't worked there in a couple of years. You expect me to remember everybody?? :)
Quoting nwobilderburg:


is that rain in California i see

Yes. The setup is very similar to the TS we've been tracking here for three weeks. :-)
Quoting 481. MocDasters:

That is some great writing there WKC. It reminds me of what I read in Wikipedia;

Hurricane Alex (2004)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hurricane Alex
Category 3 hurricane (SSHWS)
Hurricane Alex 04 aug 2004 1500Z.jpg
Satellite image of Hurricane Alex leaving the Outer Banks of North Carolina on August 4
Formed July 31, 2004
Dissipated August 6, 2004
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
120 mph (195 km/h)
Lowest pressure 957 mbar (hPa); 28.26 inHg
Fatalities 1 direct
Damage $7.5 million (2004 USD)
Areas affected Outer Banks of North Carolina, Sable Island, Europe (already extratropical)
Part of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season
No duh.... I been hanging out here too long... i just assumed his quote was from Wikipedia ...

Quoting 510. TylerStanfield:

It appears a mid-level or shallow surface trough is forming with a system off the Florida east coast.
Though The Weather Channel is calling the system an "Upper-level low" It is quite apparent that it isn't.

850 MB Vorticity

200 MB Vorticity

I do believe it won't amount to much, but it wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on it.

It formed from a ULL that's been hanging about. I does look like it's working its way to the surface.

Quoting 551. wunderkidcayman:

anyway the only reason NHC marked that E Fl AOI is because it just off the US Coast
Disagree. They marked it because it's the only feature at present that has even a 10% chance of making anything of itself. It's not impossible for something to come of this, after all, though it does seem unlikely ATM....




W/NW Caribbean "might" still bear watching in the coming days.
I just want something to track is all..If nothing forms in the month of June it will end the 8 year streak of early season development.Although 90L could have been a depression.
Evening everybody.... just realized that was just sitting on my machine, unsent, from hours ago.... lol...

Looks like NHC has upped our little AOI to 10%.... And where are the wx police??? A cohort of east FL coast dwellers has stolen our overcast skies and thunderboomers....
Quoting 805. washingtonian115:

I just want something to track is all..If nothing forms in the month of June it will end the 8 year streak of early season development.Although 90L could have been a depression.
Was thinking about the no June formation and realizing it's been, what, '06 since we had no storm in May or June....

EDIT: Nope it was 04.... just a thought that 2004 was not a particularly peaceful year in the basin, El nino and alll....
Quoting 808. BahaHurican:

Was thinking about the no June formation and realizing it's been, what, '06 since we had no storm in May or June....


Andrea 2013?
I notice that a few bloggers who are regularly on during the afternoon and evening hours are M.I.A today :)
Quoting 809. ncstorm:



Andrea 2013?
What about it?
Quoting 811. BahaHurican:

What about it?


it formed in June..
Quoting 805. washingtonian115:

I just want something to track is all..If nothing forms in the month of June it will end the 8 year streak of early season development.Although 90L could have been a depression.

I personally think that 90L met the criteria for a TD, but I'm not even a layman, the NHC makes the final call! IMHO the HHs got there a little late!
We are rapidly heading into moderate El-nino territory.


Say bye to the 2014 Hurricane Season folks. Very strong WWB is heading across the Pacific and its upwelling all of this subsurface warm water to the surface now.
Quoting stormpetrol:
W/NW Caribbean "might" still bear watching in the coming days.

I'm telling you, SP, Monday is when it starts. It gets a mention in the discussion then and a circle Tuesday. Seriously. All is not yet lost in your neck of the woods. :-)
Quoting 813. stormpetrol:


I personally think that 90L met the criteria for a TD, but I'm not even a layman, the NHC makes the final call! IMHO the HHs got there a little late!
The HH did make it to late.The data would have been really helpful.But as I said before we'll see if they do something in post season analysis.
Ev en JB is shocked at what has happened over the last 48 hours across the Pacific. It's like a switch has all the sudden been flipped toward Strong El-Nino
Quoting 814. StormTrackerScott:

We are rapidly heading into moderate El-nino territory.





It has to be a glitch. Has to be.
Quoting 817. sar2401:


I'm telling you, SP, Monday is when it starts. It gets a mention in the discussion then and a circle Tuesday. Seriously. All is not yet lost in your neck of the woods. :-)


Funny all I want is some rain, it is hot as hell here, but I'll take your word for it, we sure don't need a high grade TS, that's for sure, bad for tourism!
Some shows on the weather channel are pretty cool, like Weather Caught on Camera.

Just showed a guy who was a manager in a Dairy Queen in Illinois left church and came into work four hours early because there was a tornado warning and he wanted to make sure everyone was safe. In all, he saved 200 people, including the ones from the gas station it was connected to. The tornado picked up a 2 story home across the street, so the tornado was easily an EF3.
Snow was on the ground, so that was pretty cool. Seeing a tornado throw up snow and dirt.
El Nino or not, we should be looking out for a quick turnaround. Both 2009 and 2004 were idle but come August we had 3 named storms at one time fairly quickly (in 2009's case) and then 2004 we had Alex, Bonnie, and Charley in early August.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Say bye to the 2014 Hurricane Season folks. Very strong WWB is heading across the Pacific and its upwelling all of this subsurface warm water to the surface now.

Scott, we've heard this now for months. The only difference is that it was going to be a "Super" El Nino until a few weeks ago. Even a moderate El Nino doesn't guarantee an inactive Atlantic season. 1964 was a moderate El Nino year, and we had 12 named storms with six hurricanes, all of which turned out to be majors. A weak El Nino is even less likely to influence the season. You're going way out on a limb for an El Nino which still hasn't been declared, so don't be surprised when it gets sawed off.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Funny all I want is some rain, it is hot as hell here, but I'll take your word for it, we sure don't need a high grade TS, that's for sure, bad for tourism!

I think you'll get a nice TD that gives you some rain and a little gusty wind before it moves off and dissipates. I wish it would stop off in Alabama as well, since out high here was 100 with no rain again. That scenario doesn't look too likely right now.
I'm sorry, but this is miserably boring. I think I will call it quits till August.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Ev en JB is shocked at what has happened over the last 48 hours across the Pacific. It's like a switch has all the sudden been flipped toward Strong El-Nino

Now it's back "Strong"? Keep crawling further out on that limb...
Quoting opal92nwf:
I'm sorry, but this is miserably boring. I think I will call it quits till August.

Aw, c'mon. We'll have an excessive heat warning to track for the weekend. :-)
Quoting 824. opal92nwf:

El Nino or not, we should be looking out for a quick turnaround. Both 2009 and 2004 were idle but come August we had 3 named storms at one time fairly quickly (in 2009's case) and then 2004 we had Alex, Bonnie, and Charley in early August.


Speaking of 2004...

Quoting 810. washingtonian115:

I notice that a few bloggers who are regularly on during the afternoon and evening hours are M.I.A today :)



Dunno if I can maintain the frequency to make "regular" status this year yet. I just sat down with a well-earned glass of homebrew. Been stripping out an old 15' travel trailer to convert into a guest cottage.

Not much weather to speak of around here the next week anyway. We had a cold snap of a couple days; lows on the farm night before last were in the upper 30's.
Quoting 743. thelmores:

So now the weather is causing terrorists to kill people.....

The left will do ANYTHING to ignore the fact that there is a war against terrorism. Only a matter of time before the next crusade......

Perhaps when a nuclear device is detonated in New York City, perceptions will change. Notice I did say when....... not if.....

I long for the day this was a weather blog, instead of a platform to push liberal agenda. Sadly those days are long gone......

I also notice the climate is still changing..... something that has been happening for Billions of years...... Not even sure why I post here anymore. i guess nostalgia......
Perhaps because there are still a few old guys around who are talking about the wx at least some of the time? Because the first named storm of the season could might maybe spin up in your neck of the woods?

Whatever the reason, I hope u keep coming back, Thel... it's good to see u and I hope to see more of u when the season really gets going....

Quoting 789. sar2401:


Hmmm -
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3789

I've been here a year longer and I swear I don't remember any other comments by this poster. Apparently made quite an impression on me.
Who, Thel? Nah.... prolly just posted during a different shift from you.... Thelmores posted heavily and regularly here for several seasons... not so much recently.


Quoting 831. nonblanche:



Dunno if I can maintain the frequency to make "regular" status this year yet. I just sat down with a well-earned glass of homebrew. Been stripping out an old 15' travel trailer to convert into a guest cottage.

Not much weather to speak of around here the next week anyway. We had a cold snap of a couple days; lows on the farm night before last were in the upper 30's.
What state are you located in?.

My weather has been busy with all the flooding and storms around.Not to mention the heat wave that lasted for much of this week.
Quoting 812. ncstorm:



it formed in June..
True. So that means I'm prolly right in thinking the last season WITHOUT a May or June storm was 2004 ....

i guess we've gotten spoiled by this active period into expecting a storm by the end of June...
Quoting 814. StormTrackerScott:

We are rapidly heading into moderate El-nino territory.




Only a daily value, Scott. This will need to continue for a week, to become a weekly averaged anomaly, and will need to persist for a month or two for it to really make it apparent to the Climate prediction center that this a El Niño event.
Don't let your shorts get in a wad over this, or you'll really go nuts when the values get higher as the event instensifies later into fall.
Quoting 834. BahaHurican:

True. So that means I'm prolly right in thinking the last season WITHOUT a May or June storm was 2004 ....

i guess we've gotten spoiled by this active period into expecting a storm by the end of June...



okay that makes sense..

your statement below read like we DIDN'T have a storm in may/june since 2006..
Quoting 833. washingtonian115:

What state are you located in?.

My weather has been busy with all the flooding and storms around.Not to mention the heat wave that lasted for much of this week.


Northern Nevada, middle of Churchill County. 9 miles west of this

As a matter of fact I was just about to cross over US50 when I saw the flashing parade. Looks like we get this kind of thing every two, three years.
I'm really leaving this time..work in the AM..night all..

until the next long range model run..peace..

by the way Scott, I didnt see anything on JB twitter about him being shock about the el nino switch..must be in his weatherbell discussion perhaps?

You know, when u hang around the blog at odd hours, you get to meet a lot of different people. What amazes me is how the commonality of wx, especially extreme wx, unifies so many different people from so many different locations, backgrounds, interests and experiences.

It was a bit slow last year, so the blog didn't "hop" the way it can. However, it is entirely possible we will see quite a fair amount of activity in August and early Sept, regardless of the potential el nino conditions. So I'd advise clearing out those non-functioning links and bookmarks, reading up on latest developments, and catching up on sleep... when it does eventually get going around here, things can get fast and furious...

Night, all...
Quoting 837. nonblanche:



Northern Nevada, middle of Churchill County. 9 miles west of this

As a matter of fact I was just about to cross over US50 when I saw the flashing parade. Looks like we get this kind of thing every two, three years.
You are right.There isn't mush to talk about weather wise out there in Nevada with the drought and all (It is a desert).

COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
830 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...AN AREA OF WEAK LOWER
PRESSURE OF NON-TROPICAL NATURE WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE CAPE CANAVERAL
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MARITIME SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LAND AREAS...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP


Good Evening everyone.

Comparing last month



To now



The warm anomolies have increased across the Nino 3 and 3.4 regions. So my guess is next month or August and El Nino will officially be declared.

One thing to look at is the behavior of the wind shear in the Caribbean, right now the Jet is moving fast through that region, and then when you look at the EPAC wind shear is light.

Last comment: Looks like we r in for some more rain... lol...

New photo of the twin EF4* tornadoes on Monday via Scott Peake (Basehunters):



* The tornado on the left is the one that moved through Pilger, Nebraska--its rating is not final and an upgrade to EF5 is still very much possible.
Quoting 835. TylerStanfield:

Only a daily value, Scott. This will need to continue for a week, to become a weekly averaged anomaly, and will need to persist for a month or two for it to really make it apparent to the Climate prediction center that this a El Niño event.
Don't let your shorts get in a wad over this, or you'll really go nuts when the values get higher as the event instensifies later into fall.


I know its a daily value and it needs to persist but either way this is the first significant jump so far for nino 3.4. Definitely think that my post were warranted as this could be the trend now perhaps leveling off at 1.0 to 1.2C next week until rising again come Fall.
Quoting Climate175:
lol, i am doing this for the people who have been crying for development and saying i can't wait for August.


Snow season is more interesting. Even in DC
it's been the same the past few seasons. I really wish I knew the answer as to why. I almost want to say stronger than normal high pressure ridging in the Atlantic.

Report on Verona, Wisconsin storms: 253 homes damaged, 19 severely damaged, two beyond repair. 15 million in overall damage costs.
NE Pacific SST is above climatology.



Meanwhile, Tropical Atlantic go figure is below climatology. Caribbean, GOM, and East Coast are as well.



843. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:57 AM GMT on June 20, 2014

The shear is light off of the east coast and subtropical Atlantic..Usual places you'll find development in El nino years in the Atlantic.
By Rob Perillo


The latest guidance presented at the conference shows the the current El Niño is lagging well behind previous moderate El Niños with a weak and delayed onset of the phenomenon at best, as of mid-June.

Therefore, El Niño may not be as big of a player this hurricane season, but cooler than normal Atlantic Sea surface temperatures continue to remain slightly below normal, which should aid in reducing the total number of storms.

Per Colorado State's Dr. Klotzbach's latest hurricane season forecast update as of June 2, the numbers were adjusted very slightly upward from the April forecast.

10 named tropical storms are expected in the Atlantic Basin (previous April forecast was 9 and 12 is normal); 4 hurricanes are currently forecast (3 was previously forecast and 6 is the long-term average), with 1 major storm still remaining in the 2014 forecast, where the long term average as been near 2.

If current El Nino trends continue for the next one to two months, the tropical Atlantic Basin forecast number of storms could increase further.

Full article below


Link
Quoting 852. Grothar:

By Rob Perillo


The latest guidance presented at the conference shows the the current El Niño is lagging well behind previous moderate El Niños with a weak and delayed onset of the phenomenon at best, as of mid-June.

Therefore, El Niño may not be as big of a player this hurricane season, but cooler than normal Atlantic Sea surface temperatures continue to remain slightly below normal, which should aid in reducing the total number of storms.

Per Colorado State's Dr. Klotzbach's latest hurricane season forecast update as of June 2, the numbers were adjusted very slightly upward from the April forecast.

10 named tropical storms are expected in the Atlantic Basin (previous April forecast was 9 and 12 is normal); 4 hurricanes are currently forecast (3 was previously forecast and 6 is the long-term average), with 1 major storm still remaining in the 2014 forecast, where the long term average as been near 2.

If current El Nino trends continue for the next one to two months, the tropical Atlantic Basin forecast number of storms could increase further.

Full article below


Link
I still have little hope for this season Gro..But I look forward to 2015 to see how the el nino has benefited the Atlantic.
Quoting 845. TropicalAnalystwx13:

New photo of the twin EF4* tornadoes on Monday via Scott Peake (Basehunters):



* The tornado on the left is the one that moved through Pilger, Nebraska--its rating is not final and an upgrade to EF5 is still very much possible.


You can clearly tell which one is Pilger tornado considering it's carrying lot of debris...
Quoting 851. washingtonian115:

843. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:57 AM GMT on June 20, 2014

The shear is light off of the east coast and subtropical Atlantic..Usual places you'll find development in El nino years in the Atlantic.
1997 comes to mind. If the Subtropical jet remains where it is a lot of systems will have a tough time getting it together in the Caribbean. Keep an eye on that Subtropical Jet, it's position is the key.
I am not a senior blobcaster by any means, but for just east of Florida I give a 95% chance of blob.
You'd have to go back to 2004 to find a season that didn't have a TD or TS at all by/in June.

2009 had a TD in May. Then nothing for 2.5 months.
Quoting 856. winter123:

I am not a senior blobcaster by any means, but for just east of Florida I give a 95% chance of blob.



Quoting 853. washingtonian115:

I still have little hope for this season Gro..But I look forward to 2015 to see how the el nino has benefited the Atlantic.


I never pay much attention to June and July. But the el Nino looks like it could be strong this coming winter. Get your snowshoes ready.
My new forecast
12 Named Storms
6 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes
New 00Z sfc charts
Show dissipating 1018mb low drifting W off E coast of Florida
Quoting 859. Grothar:



I never pay much attention to June and July. But the el Nino looks like it could be strong this coming winter. Get your snowshoes ready.




There's a little bit to your West that might do something.
* from another blog. Just figured I post to see thoughts.

Quoting 679. LargoFl:

hey gator, that low has a yellow circle now...0% though............................................ ........


That "low pressure area", I'll call it, did seem to have an effect on storms over central Florida today. I think it's still an open trough, but it did seem to have a bit of tug on our storms, not allowing them to move all the way to the coast. I don't know what happened up in your neck, but from what I saw on radar and satellite, looks to have been the case. I wouldn't be too surprised if a little low does form. From what maps I've looked at, it certainly appears to have slowly worked its way closer to the surface. It's at least a more substantial entity than when I left for work. Buoys don't show any wind shift or pressure drop. I base my probability more than anything on the pattern of the storms today over the peninsula. I don't think anything more than a depression could form and even that, I think, is pretty improbable. Hence 0/0, assuming that's still accurate. Anyhow, night

I'd say 20% 3 and 5 day. ~80 miles ene of Cape Canaveral


If it's not there by morning, I misjudged lol.
New TWO nothing changed at all
Not surprised
865. vis0
Though the area in question (E. Fl. - NE U.S.) i think will be active (incl.this wkend's skim by NE)  here some levity.


...Now back to observing weather & helping our fellow neighbors be they on any of the 4 corners of the world.
CREDIT:: WxU visitor chat appellate where i took someones coffee (cup),sorry.
I really wonder what's happening under all this rain in TX/MX. That must be a desert landscape and if that radar is anywhere near accurate, seems like a very large amount of water. Hope things are ok there.

The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for... southern Kinney County in south central Texas... this includes the cities of...Spofford...Brackettville... Maverick County in south central Texas... this includes the city of Quemado...

* until 345 am CDT

* at 1237 am CDT...local law enforcement officials reported flash flooding from a thunderstorm over the warned area. Flooding and closures of roads were reported on State Highway 131 and 277 as well as FM 1908...1572...and 693.

Doppler radar has estimated between 6 and 10 inches of rainfall has occurred over much of the area...with isolated pockets of 10 to 12 inches. An additional 2 to 4 inches is possible across portions of the warned area...continuing the dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding.

* Locations in the warning include but are not limited to Amanda... Standart...Anacacho and Alamo Village

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams...country roads...as well as farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. If flash flooding is observed act quickly. Move up to higher ground to escape flood waters. Do not stay in areas subject to flooding when water begins rising.

Lat...Lon 2888 10061 2891 10065 2909 10068 2911 10070 2933 10072 2945 10070 2945 10011 2900 10011 2881 10055 2882 10057

Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months has primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, warming has levelled off in recent weeks. Positive Southern Oscillation Index values and large areas of warm water in the western Pacific and off northwestern Australia are also counter to typical El Niño development.
Despite recent observations and some easing in the model outlooks, climate models surveyed by the Bureau still indicate El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014.
For Australia, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas and above-average daytime temperatures over southern parts of the continent.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter and spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
Good morning. Quick follow up about the situation in eastern Bulgaria (see post #722); the threat isn't over yet and will expand to Romania as well:

More rain in the offing, according to SevereWeatherEurope:

Here is WRF model map for rainfall totals in the next 48 hours - an impressive amount of rainfall is forecast for extreme NW Black Sea into E Romania and NE Bulgaria.


Saved image. Source Bulgarian Division for Hydrology. Accumulated rain 24h.


Quick look at the impressive morning satellite image over the SE Balkans and Black Sea revealing an upper low with SFC cyclone centered over the western Black Sea with well-defined frontal boundaries affecting surrounding areas. Source.


Source.


Source. Saved image. Notice the cyclonic structure over the East Coast of the Black Sea at the right side.

Death toll in Varna rises to 12, mayor fears more victims in the morning
20 June 2014 | 05:13 | FOCUS News Agency
Varna. Flash floods took the lives of at least 12 people in Varna's Asparouhovo neighborhood, a reporter of Radio FOCUS - Varna said. Mayor of Varna Ivan Portnih said there could be more victims in the morning.

Bulgaria declares national mourning on June 23 as death toll in Varna floods rises
Sofia Globe, June 20, 2014
... In Varna, records showed that more than 75 litres of rain a sq m had fallen in the past 24 hours, higher than the average monthly rainfall for June of 60 sq m. ...


New impressive Photo Gallery: International Business Times.


And concerning Balkan floods some weeks earlier:

Bosnia faces 2 billion euro bill for floods
World Bulletin / News Desk, June 19, 2014
The Balkans' worst flooding in decades will cost Bosnia and Herzegovina around two billion euros in damages, the country's foreign minister Zlatko Lagumdzija told the Anadolu Agency on Thursday.
The figure is equal to 16 percent of the country's gross domestic product, said Lagumdzija, adding that one-fifth of Bosnian territory was damaged and thousands of people were forced to flee their homes because of the disaster.
The European Union, United Nations and World Bank have finalized their report to determine the cost of the disaster for Bosnia and Lagumdzija said regeneration in the area would begin soon.
"The report covers energy, infrastructure, health, education, agriculture, livestock, fisheries, forests, water, production, trade and employment areas," Lagumdzija said. Noting that further information on the cost will be revealed soon, Lagumdzija observed that the cost of the three-day flood is greater than the government four-year budget.
A report on how the floods affected neighboring Serbia is expected within weeks.
At least 76 people died last month in the worst floods to hit the region in 120 years. ...




Back to work ;-)
Quoting 869. AussieStorm:

Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months has primed the climate system for an El Nino in 2014. However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, warming has levelled off in recent weeks. Positive Southern Oscillation Index values and large areas of warm water in the western Pacific and off northwestern Australia are also counter to typical El Nino development.



Interesting, Aussi. Yesterday I had a look at Earthwind in order to see whether those necessary western winds already developed, but couldn't find any at any height near the equator. But who am I ... and maybe those winds will develop in the weeks to come.

Earthwind Pacific: Link


Source.

Always worth a look: Dave Petley's landslide blog:
Monsoon 2014: late but starting to have an impact (including two good new landslide videos)
20 June 2014
fl. system defied odds and has managed to be there. getting alot of these wannabees past couple yrs. just dont seem like they can pass the threshold
Rewind back to 1972: On late June 19, Hurricane Agnes hit the FL panhandle near Apalachicola, and on this date (June 20) was located inland, over GA. Although the former Hurricane Agnes was weakening, it was not done. Agnes moved up the US east coast as a tropical storm, and caused devastating fresh water flooding in the US Northeast. Not only was it one of the costliest hurricanes on record, it was also deadly.

1972 was a very slow year, with not more than 7 named storms, and most of the storms that formed that year were located east of Florida and NE of the Bahamas, and moved harmlessly out to sea.

Just shows that, if the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season turns out to be a slow year, it only takes one storm strike to make it a memorable season.
BBC video of the Bulgarian flood

Link
Looks like a slow northly drift from yesterday. Comparison radars from yesterday and today. Looks like about a 100 mile drift to the north from this time yesterday.

Yesterday


Today

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsNY4uKXXL8&feature= player_detailpage
8AM update on the Low off Florida.

At least the NHC acknowledges the fact that there is a Low pressure system. Yesterday, it was an upper level trough, etc.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure located about 70 miles east-northeast
of Daytona Beach, Florida, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system has changed little over the
past several hours, and significant development is not expected
while it drifts slowly northward during the next day or so
. After
that time, conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for
development while the disturbance accelerates northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brennan
Quoting winter123:
I am not a senior blobcaster by any means, but for just east of Florida I give a 95% chance of blob.


It aint a blob till Gro says its a blob! No official blob alert yet
882. VR46L
Good Morning Folks !!!

Cute AOI but that is all it is

883. beell
Tropical wave depicted on the 48 hr forecast chart may finally be the surface catalyst for some watchable activity in the northern Caribbean-maybe not.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO
20 KNOTS.

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ACROSS HONDURAS...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 85W WESTWARD.


TAFB 48 hr surface forecast-valid 00Z 06/22

We may finally see some activity in the Caribbean in 3-4 days as the upper level trough mentioned in this morning's TWDAT continues to provide a SW/NE ridge weakness and fair divergence aloft over the northern Caribbean.

At the least, a surface trough from the SW Caribbean towards central Cuba. All of this should time well with an easterly wave currently located in the eastern Caribbean. On the down side, it does not look like much this morning and its location is up for interpretation:

..SUNY-ALBANY DIAGNOSTIC DATA SHOW THAT THE 700 MB TROUGH
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OF
LONGITUDE TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE POSITION.

Regardless, the GFS is modeling some increasing amplitude as it drifts west. At least this time around, there are some logical synoptic features to produce some convection pulling out of the Caribbean to the NE.

As mentioned yesterday and also in the TWDAT, the western gulf remains on the dry, subsident side of the upper trough/ridge so there should be a strong demarcation between the wet and the dry for at least the next 2-3 days.
Quoting 856. winter123:
I am not a senior blobcaster by any means, but for just east of Florida I give a 95% chance of blob.


Nobody, I mean nobody gets between Gro and Blob announcements.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
348 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST AT CAPE
CANAVERAL. THIS IS LEADING TO A LIGHT MEAN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF TSTORMS IS EXPECTED
INTERIOR TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS A DEVELOPING ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BUMPS UP AGAINST THE OPPOSING MEAN
WESTERLY WIND FLOW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO GET THINGS GOING SO THREW OUT THE LOW GFS MOS POP
NUMBERS WHICH LOOK WAY TOO LOW. SIDED WITH NAM MOS AND HRRR WHICH
SHOWS ACTIVE CONVECTION FOCUSED EAST COAST METRO.

LATEST HRRR REALLY FOCUSES ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORT LAUDERDALE
AND MIAMI METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESS ACTIVITY AT
THE PALM BEACHES. NAM12 THOUGH FOCUSES CONVECTION FROM THE LAKE
TO THE PALM BEACHES. ALTHOUGH I`M CONFIDENT TSTORMS WILL FOCUS
EAST COAST METRO, THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN,
SO DID NOT GET FANCY AND PLACED LIKELY POPS UP AND DOWN THE SE
FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STRONGEST
STORMS HIT...ESPECIALLY IF THEY HIT ACROSS AREAS WHICH SAW HEAVY
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN THE
MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
348 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST AT CAPE
CANAVERAL. THIS IS LEADING TO A LIGHT MEAN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF TSTORMS IS EXPECTED
INTERIOR TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS A DEVELOPING ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BUMPS UP AGAINST THE OPPOSING MEAN
WESTERLY WIND FLOW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO GET THINGS GOING SO THREW OUT THE LOW GFS MOS POP
NUMBERS WHICH LOOK WAY TOO LOW. SIDED WITH NAM MOS AND HRRR WHICH
SHOWS ACTIVE CONVECTION FOCUSED EAST COAST METRO.

LATEST HRRR REALLY FOCUSES ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORT LAUDERDALE
AND MIAMI METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESS ACTIVITY AT
THE PALM BEACHES. NAM12 THOUGH FOCUSES CONVECTION FROM THE LAKE
TO THE PALM BEACHES. ALTHOUGH I`M CONFIDENT TSTORMS WILL FOCUS
EAST COAST METRO, THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN,
SO DID NOT GET FANCY AND PLACED LIKELY POPS UP AND DOWN THE SE
FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STRONGEST
STORMS HIT...ESPECIALLY IF THEY HIT ACROSS AREAS WHICH SAW HEAVY
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN THE
MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.


It will be interesting to see how the banding sets up today. The low is still close enough to the coast that it will have an effect on the daily thunderstorm movement.
Yesterday, we had a band setup over my area in South Fort Myers that extended across the state to the Palm Beach area with movement from west to east.

Todays the banding should be more north-south with movement moving from north to south. That should cause the increase in rainfall down in S.E. Fl.
I wouldn't be too sure exactly where the stongest storms will setup. It could be anywhere along the S.E. coast and area further to the north.
Quoting 880. Sfloridacat5:

8AM update on the Low off Florida.

At least the NHC acknowledges the fact that there is a Low pressure system. Yesterday, it was an upper level trough, etc.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure located about 70 miles east-northeast
of Daytona Beach, Florida, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system has changed little over the
past several hours, and significant development is not expected
while it drifts slowly northward during the next day or so
. After
that time, conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for
development while the disturbance accelerates northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

You guys are making me laugh and wince at the same time... lol.... The reason why they said what they did yesterday is because it was TRUE yesterday... what we have observed since then is what is referred to as a ULL "working its way down to the surface". On top of that, NHC / TAFB forecasted this quite nicely - last weekend. Don't make it sound like they just noticed it or reluctant to admit it was there....

west winds now in e cen fl...so maybe we can get some showers yesterday morning we had east winds
Good Morning Folks.  Not much to add to the discussion so far.  As noted below, it is shear city out there in the Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean at the moment with the exception of off the East Coast of Florida but the weak low off the coast is not looking promising at the moment with the 10%. While is has become a separate entity (weak low), and the proximity of the upper level tutt cell is enhancing some convection, the cooler dryer air dropping down from the higher elevations is not producing a favorable environment for development in spite of the relatively low shear.



  
Quoting 883. beell:

Tropical wave depicted on the 48 hr forcast chart may finally be the surface catalyst for some watchable activity in the northern Caribbean-maybe not.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO
20 KNOTS.

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ACROSS HONDURAS...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 85W WESTWARD.


TAFB 48 hr surface forecast-valid 00Z 06/22

We may finally see some activity in the Caribbean in 3-4 days as the upper level trough mentioned in this morning's TWDAT continues to provide a SW/NE ridge weakness and fair divergence aloft over the northern Caribbean.

At the least, a surface trough from the SW Caribbean towards central Cuba. All of this should time well with an easterly wave currently located in the eastern Caribbean. On the down side, it does not look like much this morning and its location is up for interpretation:

..SUNY-ALBANY DIAGNOSTIC DATA SHOW THAT THE 700 MB TROUGH
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OF
LONGITUDE TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE POSITION.

Regardless, the GFS is modeling some increasing amplitude as it drifts west. At least this time around, there are some logical synoptic features to produce some convection pulling out of the Caribbean to the NE.

As mentioned yesterday and also in the TWDAT, the western gulf remains on the dry, subsident side of the upper trough/ridge so there should be a strong demarcation between the wet and the dry for at least the next 2-3 days.
This is the Twave that the GFS mid / long range was anticipating last week / 2 weeks ago. The surface low developing near FL / NW Bahamas does suggest that there is potential for something to form along that trough... will be interesting to observe this weekend to see whether we get any interaction going in the SW Car.

I gotta run. I'll check in later today if time permits. But TGIF.... I may find someplace sunny to hang out this p.m., instead of in the blog.... lol.... have a good one, everybody!
Plus 5C anomalies just beneath nino 3.4 & nino 3. Now that we have westerly wind burst occurring across the Pacific thanks to MJO we are surfacing all of this warm anomalous subsurface water. Expect the models to begin to trend upwards in a drastic way now that very impressive warming is occurring




Quoting 888. islander101010:

west winds now in e cen fl...so maybe we can get some showers yesterday morning we had east winds


WRF model really hammers Orlando later this evening.
Right now we have a Full Basin wide El-Nino in the process of occurring.
894. VR46L
Quoting 893. StormTrackerScott:

Right now is we have a Full Basin wide El-Nino in the process of occurring.


Have to admit that the SST anomaly image you posted looks like El Nino but doesn't it have to stay like that for 3 months to be El Nino ?
Quoting BahaHurican:
You guys are making me laugh and wince at the same time... lol.... The reason why they said what they did yesterday is because it was TRUE yesterday... what we have observed since then is what is referred to as a ULL "working its way down to the surface". On top of that, NHC / TAFB forecasted this quite nicely - last weekend. Don't make it sound like they just noticed it or reluctant to admit it was there....



I don't know the difference in pressure at the lower levels (which I know must still be high) from yesterday to today.
Based on radar presentation, there hasn't been any change in the system over the past several days.
The NHC has been calling it a trough. When does a trough have a nice tight circulation of thunderstorms moving around a center?

From yesterday afternoon.
896. VR46L
Thunderstorms are evident on the visual of the area off Jacksonville

Quoting 894. VR46L:



Have to admit that the SST anomaly image you posted looks like El Nino but doesn't it have to stay like that for 3 months to be El Nino ?


It does and it really has since late April so we could have El-Nino officially in July. This latest MJO is surfacing all of this warm water very fast now. The last 2 months we were just 1 MJO away from this happening and here it is. If you remember we had the Strongest Kelvin Wave ever just 2 months ago and to some extent it is still intact and now is surfacing albeit much weaker but plus 5C anomalies are nothing to sneeze at.
Quoting 896. VR46L:

Thunderstorms are evident on the visual of the area off Jacksonville




How is your dad? I was thinking of you a few weeks back hoping you were hanging in there.
899. FOREX
Quoting 860. HurricaneAndre:

My new forecast
12 Named Storms
6 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes


31 Ghost Storms.
20/1145 UTC 29.4N 79.7W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic
902. VR46L
Quoting 898. StormTrackerScott:



How is your dad? I was thinking of you a few weeks back hoping you were hanging in there.


He will be finished Radio next week , but he is not great . I was with him in Hospital the last week but came home last night . the others are with him this weekend . Thanks for asking
CFSv2 model. Notice the discrepancy now. "If" this is accurate then this is quite a jump in 2 days. With this we could see a dramatic shift upwards next week on the models.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure located about 70 miles east-northeast
of Daytona Beach, Florida, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system has changed little over the
past several hours, and significant development is not expected
while it drifts slowly northward during the next day or so. After
that time, conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for
development while the disturbance accelerates northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Here is another map showing that what we are likely seeing warming wise isn't a glitch.



Here's a closer look at nino 3 and nino 3.4. Notice the 1C to 2C anomalies filling in now.

Based on NOAA maps the "Low" off the Florida coast was classified as a (1018) "Low" yesterday at 2100Z (5 pm).
SSD Invest pressure = 1014
check out tuesday..isnt there a weak trop wave nearing the islands today?.................................
GO ! Phish'
EL Nino is a Hoax by the Global Zen Masters.

The Data iz skewed,

Al Gore started the El Nino scam.


Man cannot affect the Pacific Water Temps.

It's the Sun.

; P
Here's NOAA map from yesterday already showing the Low off the coast of Florida.


Today's map with the low down to 1016
Quoting 905. StormTrackerScott:
Here is another map showing that what we are likely seeing warming wise isn't a glitch.



Here's a closer look at nino 3 and nino 3.4. Notice the 1C to 2C anomalies filling in now.



Other sources still don't agree, though. These are just from tropicsweatherpr's ENSO blog:




I'll be very curious to see if this looks much different on the next posting (Monday):

Quoting 897. StormTrackerScott:



It does and it really has since late April so we could have El-Nino officially in July. This latest MJO is surfacing all of this warm water very fast now. The last 2 months we were just 1 MJO away from this happening and here it is. If you remember we had the Strongest Kelvin Wave ever just 2 months ago and to some extent it is still intact and now is surfacing albeit much weaker but plus 5C anomalies are nothing to sneeze at.


They won't call it until August or September STS. El Nino is classified by 3 consecutive 3 month running averages of 3.4 indices being above 0.5. The 3 month average clearly wasn't at or above 0.5 until May just by a visual inspection of the 3.4 time-series. Therefore you would have AMJ > 0.5 MJJ > 0.5 JJA > 0.5. So it won't be called until the end of August if this trend holds.
Saying 'goodbye' to the Atlantic hurricane season because of 1 day of increased values in the Nino region is quite irresponsible actually. Even if we have 9 storms, who says the US cant get hit with a big one? Just because an El Nino occurs, does not at all mean that we wont have a season, and that we are all safe. Sigh, some people just dont get it!
Quoting boltdwright:


They won't call it until August or September STS. El Nino is classified by 3 consecutive 3 month running averages of 3.4 indices being above 0.5. The 3 month average clearly wasn't at or above 0.5 until May just by a visual inspection of the 3.4 time-series. Therefore you would have AMJ > 0.5 MJJ > 0.5 JJA > 0.5. So it would be called until the end of August if this trend holds.


He knows this, but honestly the guy is just trying to stir the blog up, always has and always will. Just like saying the hurricane season is not going to happen. Very irresponsible.

Also, ive been saying all along we would likely see an El Nino even in August/Sept, so im right on point despite all the ridicule from STS.
Quoting 915. boltdwright:



They won't call it until August or September STS. El Nino is classified by 3 consecutive 3 month running averages of 3.4 indices being above 0.5. The 3 month average clearly wasn't at or above 0.5 until May just by a visual inspection of the 3.4 time-series. Therefore you would have AMJ > 0.5 MJJ > 0.5 JJA > 0.5. So it would be called until the end of August if this trend holds.


Source for Values: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mon itoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

MAM was NEGATIVE 0.2. so we have to wait another month (September).
Quoting 917. StormWx:



He knows this, but honestly the guy is just trying to stir the blog up, always has and always will. Just like saying the hurricane season is not going to happen. Very irresponsible.

Also, ive been saying all along we would likely see an El Nino even in August/Sept, so im right on point despite all the ridicule from STS.


I am not trying to prove anyone wrong to play the "I'm right card", I mean technically I am Wright, but that's another story. I don't know if I am on STS ignore list, but I hope he understands I am not trying put him down or enjoy proving him wrong, I am just trying to bring some facts to the Blog that everyone can enjoy.
Quoting 902. VR46L:



He will be finished Radio next week , but he is not great . I was with him in Hospital the last week but came home last night . the others are with him this weekend . Thanks for asking
Prayers to you and your family. I was experiencing similar situations last summer with my dad and my youngest brother. Peace be with you.
Quoting boltdwright:


I am not trying to prove anyone wrong to play the "I'm right card", I mean technically I am Wright, but that's another story. I don't know if I am on STS ignore list, but I hope he understands I am not trying put him down or enjoy proving him wrong, I am just trying to bring some facts to the Blog that everyone can enjoy.


We love facts :o) so keep bringin' them! I dont try to prove anyone wrong i just try to tell the facts as well whether or not people like them. Fact is, we will still have an atlantic hurricane season, and no one knows exactly how it will pan out, where storms will form and where they will go. I know it gets overstated but "it only takes one".

Remember Andrew.
Quoting 917. StormWx:



He knows this, but honestly the guy is just trying to stir the blog up, always has and always will. Just like saying the hurricane season is not going to happen. Very irresponsible.

Also, ive been saying all along we would likely see an El Nino even in August/Sept, so im right on point despite all the ridicule from STS.


You're the stirrer on here. You have an unhealthy obsession with STS, and need to get a grip of yourself.
Quoting 895. Sfloridacat5:



I don't know the difference in pressure at the lower levels (which I know must still be high) from yesterday to today.
Based on radar presentation, there hasn't been any change in the system over the past several days.
The NHC has been calling it a trough. When does a trough have a nice tight circulation of thunderstorms moving around a center?

From yesterday afternoon.



Its not a trough, winds show a well defined but weak surface low that developed from the result of a shear axis and the NWS offices in Florida have all been calling it a low, not sure why the NHC was referring to it as an upper trough. However, it isn't tropical but that doesn't mean convective processes can't change that through latent heat. Still, it will need much more impressive convection than it has had to become tropical, it has very high moisture in its center though.

There is also some weak surface vorticity in the gulf.
Nino 3.4 up to 0.976C and nino 3 up 1.218C. Nino 3.4 however seems to be leveling off now and could cross 1.0C later today or tomorrow.
Quoting 922. yonzabam:



You're the stirrer on here. You have an unhealthy obsession with STS, and need to get a grip of yourself.


It's a little weird I would agree.
Quoting 925. StormTrackerScott:

Nino 3.4 up to 0.976C and nino 3 up 1.218C. Nino 3.4 however seems to be leveling off now and could cross 1.0C later today or tomorrow.


I don't see how you can say that a 'spike' of 0.7C, occurring over just 2 days, is 'levelling off'.
Is it just me or are all of the NOAA web sites down (including the NHC)?
That wave was a complete bust... and so is THE GFS SHORT RANGE FORECAST :/ The upper ridge, always the upper ridge! It's depressing...
Quoting 927. yonzabam:



I don't see how you can say that a 'spike' of 0.7C, occurring over just 2 days, is 'levelling off'.


Folks in the Weather Service call that "Chasing Obs."
Folks in the Weather Service call that "Chasing Obs."

let me be the first to say.....a rise of 0.5c in two days in the 3.4 el nino region is outrageously exciting....i almost think it is unprecedented.....however...after the excitement you have to step back and realize...they're just daily values....and we have to look at weekly and monthly values to get a true picture.....consider that we've been following this transformation as the pacific makes it's way from neutral conditions to what eventually will be an el nino event for over 4 months....when you focus too much on the daily values...well...that's when you start making statements such as..."el nino will be declared any day now...or in two weeks....or june 5th...etc....etc and look foolish
932. SLU
Quoting 929. CaribBoy:

That wave was a complete bust... and so is THE GFS SHORT RANGE FORECAST :/ The upper ridge, always the upper ridge! It's depressing...


Looks like one of those years when we will have to take whatever we get ....


Quoting 927. yonzabam:



I don't see how you can say that a 'spike' of 0.7C, occurring over just 2 days, is 'levelling off'.


The last 2 updates haven't spiked as much is what I was referring to.
Quoting 931. ricderr:

Folks in the Weather Service call that "Chasing Obs."

let me be the first to say.....a rise of 0.5c in two days in the 3.4 el nino region is outrageously exciting....i almost think it is unprecedented.....however...after the excitement you have to step back and realize...they're just daily values....and we have to look at weekly and monthly values to get a true picture.....consider that we've been following this transformation as the pacific makes it's way from neutral conditions to what eventually will be an el nino event for over 4 months....when you focus too much on the daily values...well...that's when you start making statements such as..."el nino will be declared any day now...or in two weeks....or june 5th...etc....etc and look foolish


But this is the same person who post daily values under .5C. I think we all knew this was going to happen but we needed one more MJO to give it one more push. Lots of 5C anomalies lying just beneath the surface across Nino 3.4 and nino 3. If this MJO can last 2 more weeks then it will be interesting to see how much higher these values can get.

If this MJO didn't come then El-Nino probably wouldn't materialize but now that it has we are seeing finally the meat of this subsurface warm pool come to the surface across the Nino 3.4 and Nino 3. Remember the Kelvin Wave surface surfaced across Nino 1&2 back in April with the last MJO but that wasn't enough to get warm waters to surface across Nino 3 and 3.4. It needed another push. Also the SOI is finally starting to drop again and add to that a PDO of 1.80 which is very high.
Quoting 931. ricderr:

Folks in the Weather Service call that "Chasing Obs."

let me be the first to say.....a rise of 0.5c in two days in the 3.4 el nino region is outrageously exciting....i almost think it is unprecedented.....however...after the excitement you have to step back and realize...they're just daily values....and we have to look at weekly and monthly values to get a true picture.....consider that we've been following this transformation as the pacific makes it's way from neutral conditions to what eventually will be an el nino event for over 4 months....when you focus too much on the daily values...well...that's when you start making statements such as..."el nino will be declared any day now...or in two weeks....or june 5th...etc....etc and look foolish
Yep..It reminds me when there is a storm appears to change direction to the west or north, and suddenly someone believes that they are now in the path when it was just a wobble.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
428 am EDT Fri Jun 20 2014

Near term [today]...
MOS pops are mostly in the single digits for today which seem too
low despite the deep layer ridging in place. We have seen a fair
amount of convection develop along the sea breeze the past few days
and will go with persistence. The mean flow will once again be light
from the north to northeast (regime 2) so most convection should be
confined to the Florida zones this afternoon.
Temperatures will
continue to be hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s inland areas
and around 90 along the coast.

Short term [tonight through sunday]...
an upper high is forecast to remain anchored over the lower MS
valley with a ridge axis extending eastward across cntrl/nrn Alabama/Georgia and
another axis swd to high in wrn Gulf thru Sat night. Locally, this
translates to northerly flow above lowest levels. A series of shortwaves
will move swd in this flow and gradually weaken ridge thru the
period so by sun aftn ridge rather flat with local flow becoming
westerly.
At surface, west-East Ridge persists across north/cntrl Gulf while low
sets up along SC coast with weak trough west-southwest across cntrl al/GA.
All this yielding type 4 seabreeze west-southwest low level flow.


Absent upper forcing, convection on Sat will be mainly due to
aftn/early eve Gulf seabreeze focused along and south of I-10.
By
sun aftn, low moves further off coast with assocd trough shunted
swd with boundary likely stalling just to our north with increased
moisture pooling into our area. Area pwats increase to around 2
inches. This will enhance chances of Gulf seabreeze/outflow
boundary clashes which could generate strong to possibly isold
severe storms.


Will go with at or below wdly sct pops tonight, 30-40% Sat, 20-30% Sat
night and 30-50% on sun. Inland lows each night in low-mid 70s.
Model sounding show warming at 850 mb-700 mb with 850 mb temps around 19c next
few days. Expect highs each day from low 90s southeast Big Bend to mid to
upper 90s elsewhere. Heat indices generally 100 to 104 degrees.
Patchy fog possible late tonight into early Sat morning.

Long term [sunday night through next thursday]...
early next week, we'll see mostly zonal flow aloft over the
southern states, with the exception of a SW trof across the
appalachian mtns. This may help feed an mesoscale convective system to our NE and give US
moist, SW flow at the lower levels, which will likely mean slightly
wetter than normal sea-breeze day on Monday.
Chances of afternoon
thunderstorms will be around 50%, with highs in the low-mid 90s and
lows in the low 70s. Mid-next week, the model GFS and European model (ecmwf)
solutions begin to diverge, adding uncertainty to the forecast. The
GFS brings on a much more disturbed pattern, with a TUTT bringing
deep layer Gulf moisture to the area, increasing rain chances and
decreasing temperatures. Meanwhile the European model (ecmwf) solution brings in a
ridge over the Gulf by Thursday, meaning less moisture and higher
temperatures.
For now, keeping forecast closer to climo with pops
around 40%, highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s for Tuesday
through Thursday.
Quoting 901. Tazmanian:


Good morning Taz !!!!
But this is the same person who post daily values under .5C. I think we all knew this was going to happen but we needed one more MJO to give it one more push. Lots of 5C anomalies lying just beneath the surface across Nino 3.4 and nino 3. If this MJO can last 2 more weeks then it will be interesting to see how much higher these values can get.


actually...i post something on el nino probably everyday......regardless if it is high or low....and in may...i posted what i felt were the three most likely scenarios for el nino to be declared...with july the most likely...august next...and june least likely....if you don't think i'm not freaking standing on my chair cheering as this makes july look more likely....well....you might not realize how much i don't like eating crow :-)
Yep..It reminds me when there is a storm appears to change direction to the west or north, and suddenly someone believes that they are now in the path when it was just a wobble.


exactly!!!!.....
Funny how Ric and stormwx post daily values that were near .5c or under over the last several weeks and mocking the development of El-Nino but now that values are near 1C and I post this then its a problem with these 2. Got to love how some think on here.
Quoting 939. ricderr:

But this is the same person who post daily values under .5C. I think we all knew this was going to happen but we needed one more MJO to give it one more push. Lots of 5C anomalies lying just beneath the surface across Nino 3.4 and nino 3. If this MJO can last 2 more weeks then it will be interesting to see how much higher these values can get.


actually...i post something on el nino probably everyday......regardless if it is high or low....and in may...i posted what i felt were the three most likely scenarios for el nino to be declared...with july the most likely...august next...and june least likely....if you don't think i'm not freaking standing on my chair cheering as this makes july look more likely....well....you might not realize how much i don't like eating crow :-)


Ric please everytime you get a chance you post how the enso numbers are low b ut when I post that they are rising then you get your pants in a wad. Your kinda funny watching your post trying to bash me all the time.
Anyways Ric I'm out you guys have a nice day and I will be back sometime next week as work is calling again.
I have been a attending interguvernamental panels, symposiums, etc. on climate change for the past 4 years. They inevitably address issues on how to face all the critical elements that are expected to arise. Only on the rarest occasion an academe or an NGO leader will address the most critical question of all... why is nothing consequential resolutely being done to stop catastrophic change?

It appears it's a fait accompli... Pogo was right. .. we're lemmings.
Ric please everytime you get a chance you post how the enso numbers are low b ut when I post that they are rising then you get your pants in a wad. Your kinda funny watching your post trying to bash me all the time.


scott...but you've been calling for this super el nino to be declared...in april.....wintertime....then spring...then may...then june.....along the way you've dropped in "any day now"....in "two weeks"....in "three weeks"
and june 5th......and i've posted how that's been foolishness...i admire those that can ignore this crap...but i can't...unjustified hype just wears on me..in my next life i'll do better
Dr. MV along with other scientist. It was him that did a blog on this earlier this year and it didn't happen that fast. I got the information from him along with many others who proclaimed the samething. I really feel you just want to start trouble and attack me for what others are saying as well. Did it happen like some thought no. I just think it's funny how you do the same crap but yet you can't get called out without getting your feelings hurt.

So I guess you are going to attack Dr. Michael V. as well right for calling a super el-nino. Must be slow in the wife's office today I see.
Quoting 931. ricderr:

Folks in the Weather Service call that "Chasing Obs."

let me be the first to say.....a rise of 0.5c in two days in the 3.4 el nino region is outrageously exciting....i almost think it is unprecedented.....however...after the excitement you have to step back and realize...they're just daily values....and we have to look at weekly and monthly values to get a true picture.....consider that we've been following this transformation as the pacific makes it's way from neutral conditions to what eventually will be an el nino event for over 4 months....when you focus too much on the daily values...well...that's when you start making statements such as..."el nino will be declared any day now...or in two weeks....or june 5th...etc....etc and look foolish


Oh you know I am agreeing with you right? You can't make statements declaring something based on such little data. It drives me crazy just as much as you! Especially when we are considering such an event that is large on the temporal scale. I am also baffled how people will say "El Nino will be here in 2 weeks," when according to meteorological definition we CANNOT have an El Nino declared before September 1st (because MAM had an index value of -0.2 and we need 3 consecutive 3-month averages of above 0.5). Sure we might have El Nino conditions, or something suggesting such. But El Nino cannot be declared another 2 months at the least.
C&P

Conditions remain favourable for an El Nino event to develop, with sub-surface temperatures in the Pacific at depths of about 100 metres running about 5 degrees above normal. The patch of anomalously warm waters has also reached the far-eastern Pacific, Dr Watkins said. Surface temperatures are about 1-2 degrees above normal for much of the equatorial ocean.

"Right now, this is the crucial stage for the El Nino to gain amplitude,” Professor Timmermann said. “If the westerlies do not come along, it will be a weak to moderate El Nino.”

Dr Watkins said the focus was now on a strong pulse of cloud and rain in the equatorial Indian Ocean. That pulse – known as a Madden-Julian oscillation – may be the source of the next burst of westerly winds if it retains sufficient strength when it reaches the Pacific.

“We’re all waiting to see what happens,” Dr Watkins said.

Quoting 941. StormTrackerScott:

Funny how Ric and stormwx post daily values that were near .5c or under over the last several weeks and mocking the development of El-Nino but now that values are near 1C and I post this then its a problem with these 2. Got to love how some think on here.


I don't think they have a problem with you posting values of 1. They have a problem with you posting values of 1 and then saying. "HERE WE GO!" We still have a long way to go and simply put El Nino is not an event where rash decisions based on the data from 1 or 2 weeks can made. Because El Nino is so long on the temporal scale compared to mesoscale/synoptic events, you have to look at WEEKS of data before any trends or conclusions can be made mate. Why do you think the meteorological definition of an El Nino is three consecutive months of 3-month average anomalies above 0.5C. That's the only thing they're peeved about. Now if this trend continued for another 2-4 weeks, I am sure they would have a lot less problem with your assumptions.

If you're doubting what I am saying Scott, I just got done taking a Graduate Level course on Tropical Meteorology with a HEAVY focus on ENSO circulations. I have a good understanding of how they work.
Quoting 947. StormTrackerScott:

Dr. MV along with other scientist. It was him that did a blog on this earlier this year and it didn't happen that fast. I got the information from him along with many others who proclaimed the samething. I really feel you just want to start trouble and attack me for what others are saying as well. Did it happen like some thought no. I just think it's funny how you do the same crap but yet you can't get called out without getting your feelings hurt.

So I guess you are going to attack Dr. Michael V. as well right for calling a super el-nino. Must be slow in the wife's office today I see.
Lets just wait a week or 2 and see if the warm waters can stay near 1c, i have my doubts.
Link Center and swirl on visible is evident. Main cloud clusters seem to have moved slightly west. Thoughts?
Quoting 916. StormWx:
Saying 'goodbye' to the Atlantic hurricane season because of 1 day of increased values in the Nino region is quite irresponsible actually. Even if we have 9 storms, who says the US cant get hit with a big one? Just because an El Nino occurs, does not at all mean that we wont have a season, and that we are all safe. Sigh, some people just dont get it!


I say this every season to all of the "downcasters", "bust season casters", etc.....ALL IT TAKES IS ONE hit somewhere no matter how many storms form or don't form. All we can do is watch, wait and pray that any storm that might form does not hit any populated land mass. The fun of the season is using whatever meteorlogical info you have learned and your "gut instinct" to logically "guess" what might happen. The horror is when (if) one hits, the size of the storm and how much damage is done, and whether or not lives are lost. I know it is hard to wait for the first one to form, but we have to do that with cheerful anticipation of what might occur. I am just as eager to see what this season might hold but also praying for no hits, damages, injuries or lives lost anywhere.
I don't think they have a problem with you posting values of 1. They have a problem with you posting values of 1 and then saying. "HERE WE GO!" We still have a long way to go and simply put El Nino is not an event where rash decisions based on the data from 1 or 2 weeks can made. Because El Nino is so long on the temporal scale compared to mesoscale/synoptic events, you have to look at WEEKS of data before any trends or conclusions can be made mate. Why do you think the meteorological definition of an El Nino is three consecutive months of 3-month average anomalies above 0.5C. That's the only thing they're peeved about. Now if this trend continued for another 2-4 weeks, I am sure they would have a lot less problem with your assumptions.

If you're doubting what I am saying Scott, I just got done taking a Graduate Level course on Tropical Meteorology with a HEAVY focus on ENSO circulations. I have a good understanding of how they work.



thank you for saying concisely what i've been trying to
955. MAstu
I'm a little irked that something as important and relevant as El Nino forecasting is so hard to do. We're talking about a huge pool of water that is supposed to behave more or less cyclically and yet we have intelligent people on here arguing about 1 degree C differences or even more. If the timing and magnitude are so hard to predict, it makes me wonder about the skill of other medium range forecasts.
Hmm nice looking tropical wave just off the W coast of Africa SE of the CV Islands
A weak, and ill-defined circulation can be seen on Visible from the system off the east coast of Florida.
If it manages to fire off more convection over the center, and can become more defined, it may be able to make a run at becoming a tropical depression.

Shear is in the moderate to high range, so it's an uphill battle, but I've seen worse situations for tropical cyclone development.
Good Morning Class!

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 20 Jun 8:43 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 20 Jun 8:30 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Chill Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (f) (mph)
20 Jun 8:30 am PDT 77 33 20 ESE 3G05 OK
Quoting 955. MAstu:

I'm a little irked that something as important and relevant as El Nino forecasting is so hard to do. We're talking about a huge pool of water that is supposed to behave more or less cyclically and yet we have intelligent people on here arguing about 1 degree C differences or even more. If the timing and magnitude are so hard to predict, it makes me wonder about the skill of other medium range forecasts.


Honestly, it's hard to forecast exactly how strong because they don't come by often. We have only been recording them since 1950s and El Nino only come by once every several years since. I know it's frustrating, but science requires patience whether we like it or not :\ Hopefully our skill will improve on this subject.
Thank you for reporting on the warming ENSO over the past few days, but I think it's time to give it a rest, Scott. We can get the information ourselves if we want, or look back on the blog to find what we need so there's no need for the constant posting of the maps and graphs of the ENSO warming, and the commentary that goes with it.

It'd be much appreciated if Scott, Ric, and Stormwx could take this conversation of pointing figures and disagreements in personal perception of the ENSO index elsewhere, so that it's not posted on the main blog for everyone to have to see. I'd prefer for none of you guys to be banned by the moderators if this gets too heated.
Thank you.
961. VR46L
Quoting 957. TylerStanfield:

A weak, and ill-defined circulation can be seen on Visible from the system off the east coast of Florida.
If it manages to fire off more convection over the center, and can become more defined, it may be able to make a run at becoming a tropical depression.

Shear is in the moderate to high range, so it's an uphill battle, but I've seen worse situations for tropical cyclone development.



Are you sure ..... it looks like its dissipating to me

Quoting 955. MAstu:

I'm a little irked that something as important and relevant as El Nino forecasting is so hard to do. We're talking about a huge pool of water that is supposed to behave more or less cyclically and yet we have intelligent people on here arguing about 1 degree C differences or even more. If the timing and magnitude are so hard to predict, it makes me wonder about the skill of other medium range forecasts.


I am of the opine that El Nino forecasting is worse then the 10 day GFS!
Quoting 961. VR46L:




Are you sure ..... it looks like its dissipating to me



It may be weakening, I was just noting that there is an ill-defined circulation underneath the hood of the system, as revealed by visible, so if convection were to try to refire, then we would be much closer to having a tropical depression then I initially thought.
964. flsky
Deleted
Despite shear maps showing a clearly visible alley of low shear, the view from the rapid scan visible satellite seems to show a more hostile environment. Sped up, it's quite evident that jet extends into or very near our little "low" from the ne. It's also devoid devoid of any convection on its northern side.




Evident as well on NOAA sats, though not as clearly.



Frankly, I'm more interested in the storms over TX. This has a lot of potential, seemingly, to be a very bad system for the Rio Grande and flash flooding in creeks and riverbeds in general. Radar estimates show widespread 6+" with isolated 10+". This had been occurring late last night already, and now the cluster of storms has slid nw still over the same river system. I'm going to look at some news sites to see if I can find anything. I did notice Accuweather had some *Breaking News* thing about the Rio Grande, but I haven't read it yet.



966. flsky
Sounds like a great thesis topic for an aspiring met student.

Quoting 964. flsky:

You'd be much appreciated???

Quoting 955. MAstu:

I'm a little irked that something as important and relevant as El Nino forecasting is so hard to do. We're talking about a huge pool of water that is supposed to behave more or less cyclically and yet we have intelligent people on here arguing about 1 degree C differences or even more. If the timing and magnitude are so hard to predict, it makes me wonder about the skill of other medium range forecasts.
thanks for the history lesson dr. master :)
Hope y'all have a great weekend. I finally going to the beach but it'll be cool :/ where did the humidity go? It needs to come back for a few days :p
I don't know, I can't find much. The Accuweather link said over a foot of rain had fallen in some areas and another news link I clicked mentioned a comparison to a 1991 flood event. There's clearly flooding occurring, but I can't find much pertaining to it.

Anyway, it's Friday!
970. VR46L
Going , Going ......

While El Niño is ultimately a feature that spans several months, its development and intensification is dependent on short-term features like tropical cyclones and the MJO. That's why it's so hard to forecast in advance.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
NWS:

The Flood Warning continues for the Rio Grande at del Rio. * Until Saturday morning...or until the warning is cancelled. * At 10:15 am Friday the stage was 10.2 feet (3.1 meters). * Flood stage is 4.0 feet (1.2 meters). * Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. * Forecast...the river will continue rising to near 11.2 feet (3.4 meters) by this afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage this evening. * Impact...at 11.0 feet...(3.4 meters)...major flooding. Nearly all homes in The Vega Verde subdivision are now in the flow of the river and cut off.

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet): bf fld observed forecast 7am (ft) location stg stg stg day time Sat sun Mon Tue Wed del Rio 4 4 10.2 Fri 10 am 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters): bf fld observed forecast 7am (m) location stg stg stg day time Sat sun Mon Tue Wed del Rio 1 1 3.1 Fri 10 am 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Lat...Lon 2943 10112 2946 10102 2911 10063 2879 10048

1101 am CDT Fri Jun 20 2014

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flood Warning for the Pecos River at Pandale crossing. * Until late tonight...or until the warning is cancelled. * At 10:15 am Friday the stage was 4.7 feet (1.4 meters). * Flood stage is 7.0 feet (2.1 meters). * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue to rise to near 9.0 feet 2.7 meters by this afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage by late this afternoon. * Impact...at 10.0 feet...(3.0 meters)...moderate flooding is well into the flood plain making secondary roads and crossings along the Pecos River and tributaries very dangerous to travel. Swimmers and tubers should leave the river as flow is dangerously turbulent. Campers vehicles and gear in the flood plain can be swept downstream. * Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 9.0 feet on Nov 17 2004.

Quoting ricderr:
 an El Nino is three consecutive months of 3-month average anomalies above 0.5C.

More grist for the ENSO mill.