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Drought in China adds pressure to world food prices

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 AM GMT on February 23, 2011

The soil lies cracked and broken in China's Shangdong Province, thirsting for rains that will not come. China's key wheat producing region, lying just south of Beijing, has received just 12 millimeters (1/2 inch) of rain since September, according to the Chinese news service Xinhua. If no rains come during the remainder of February, it could become the worst drought in 200 years. The latest precipitation forecast from the GFS ensemble model predicts the possibility of rains of around 1/2 inch for Shandong Province early next week, but these rains would help only a little. A longer-range 2-week forecast from the operational GFS model shows little or no rain for the region from late next week well into March. Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) projects that spring in Eastern China has an enhanced probability of being dry, with only a 20% - 25% chance that the region will see above average precipitation, and a 40% - 45% chance of below average precipitation. So the great drought will likely continue, and China's ability to feed itself may be greatly challenged this year.


Figure 1. A dried cornfield in a mountainous area of Jinan, capital of east China's Shandong Province, Jan. 18, 2011. Image credit: Xinhua/Zhu Zheng.


Figure 2. Drought conditions in China's Shandong Province this February have reached the "Severe" category. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

Impact on global food supplies and food prices
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the drought in north China seems to be putting pressure on wheat prices, which have been rising rapidly in the past few months. This has helped push global food prices to their highest levels since the FAO Food Price Index was created in 1990 (Figure 3.) China is the world's largest producer of wheat, and if they are forced to import large amounts of food due to continued drought, it could severely impact world food prices. However, the FAO's regional representative for Asia and the Pacific said in an interview with Reuters last month that the situation is not as severe as in 2008, when global food riots erupted. "In general, the supply/demand situation of food grains has become very tight at the moment but enough stocks means there is no cause for alarm," Konuma said. "We still maintain sufficient stocks, which is about 25 percent of annual production. As long as there are sufficient stocks, that means the world has enough food still to feed the people." However, he said that if food stocks continued to decline over the next few years, there would be cause for concern.

The record food global food prices have been partially driven by two other huge weather disasters, the Russian summer heat wave and drought of 2010, and the Australian floods of December - January 2011. Both Russia and Australia are major exporters of grain. Russia issued a ban last summer on grain exports because of their drought, which slashed the wheat harvest by 40% and damaged soils to such an extent that 10% of Russian wheat fields could not be planted this year. The Russian heat wave of 2010 is now estimated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters to be the deadliest in human history, with 55,736 deaths. The Australian floods caused at least $1.7 billion in agricultural damage, reducing their wheat crop significantly. Fortunately, bumper crops were harvested in non-flooded areas of Australia, and the winter crop harvest in country was up 19% over the previous year's crop, and was the biggest since 2003 - 2004. Australia has been struggling with severe drought in recent years that caused more agricultural damage than the floods did.


Figure 3. The global price of food between 1990 - January 2011, as measured by the U.N.'s FAO Food Price Index. The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of price indices for Cereals, Oils and Fats, Sugar, Dairy, and Meat, weighted by the average export shares of each group. Food prices between 2002 - 2004 are given a benchmark value of "100". Global food prices in January 2011 were the highest since the FAO Index was established in 1990. Image credit: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Drought outlook for Northern Hemisphere summer of 2011
The spike in global food prices this winter raises the concern that a severe drought in a major grain producing region in North America, Europe, or Asia this summer could severely impact grain supplies and food prices. Fortunately, with La Niña conditions over the Eastern Pacific weakening, and possibly abating by summer, the chances for such a drought are lower than they would have been if La Niña were to stay strong into the summer. The latest precipitation forecast from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Figure 4) shows few areas of drought concern for the coming Northern Hemisphere summer. However, our skill at predicting drought months in advance is limited. For example, IRI's February 2010 forecast of precipitation for the summer of 2010 did not highlight Russia as an area of possible concern for drought, and Russia ended up having one of its worst droughts in history. IRI did highlight the Amazon as a region likely to have below-average summer rains, though, and the Amazon ended up having a 100-year drought last summer.


Figure 4. Global precipitation forecast for June, July and August of 2011, made in February 2011. Only a few scattered regions of the globe are predicted to have above-average chances of drought (yellow colors.) These areas include the Northwest U.S., Southern Brazil, and Northwest China. Image credit: International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Commentary
The recent unrest in the Middle East, which has been attributed, in part, to high food prices, gives us a warning of the type of global unrest that might result in future years if the climate continues to warm as expected. A hotter climate means more severe droughts will occur. We can expect an increasing number of unprecedented heat waves and droughts like the 2010 Russian drought in coming decades. This will significantly increase the odds of a world food emergency far worse than the 2007 - 2008 global food crisis. When we also consider the world's expanding population and the possibility that peak oil will make fertilizers and agriculture much more expensive, we have the potential for a perfect storm of events aligning in the near future, with droughts made significantly worse by climate change contributing to events that will cause disruption of the global economy, intense political turmoil, and war.

I will be doing another post on Thursday or Friday.

The New York Times' Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth Blog has a more in-depth look at the food and climate change issue that I recommend.

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Patrap:
Prank Koch, or Classic Koch ?
Thanks for this... I was wondering about the pronunciation of this name.... and thinking about the male chicken version...
LoL
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Aussie.

I think they were originally expecting around 300 dead, and now it seems they will definitely have that many.

I see they've got 98+ missing just from the language school in that CTV building. Apparently a lot of the pple there survived the quake itself, but it now seems they've succumbed to asphyxiation. A lot of the students were international ones with records lodged in the building that was destroyed, so even notifying family members is difficult.... such a sad story.


Hey,
Originally it was 65 dead and 300+ missing, now its 98 dead with 226 missing. there is about 30-40 Japanese language students in the CTV building. The Japanese search and rescue crew that arrived today is working on that building as they want to take there fellow country people home, dead or alive. As the hours pass it is looking less and less likely that anyone else will be found alive. September 4th quake was 7.1 and 12km's deep. Feb 22nd quake was 6.3 and 5km's down. people in Christchurch have commented it felt much stronger than the September 7.1 quake
Just released photo of seconds after Tuesday's quake.

Looks like we are really feeling the freeze in MX & SFL effects now. Fresh produce getting scarcer.. (great thing my garden is kickin:)

Freezing temperatures in Florida combined with the worst freeze in Mexico in more than 50 years has led to a shortage in produce like tomatoes, cucumbers and bell peppers, as well as avocado, eggplant and green beans.

"It's definitely a scramble for product now," says Paul Kneeland, director of produce for Kings Supermarkets. "Basically the wholesale cost doubled in the last three or four weeks. The opportunity to go to different regions isn't helping because Florida had their issues and Mexico has now had their issues. California is not ready."
Quoting AussieStorm:
Just released photo of seconds after Tuesday's quake.


I saw a wider version of that image on Tuesday:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


An ominous sight indeed...
MADAGASCAR: Picking up the pieces after Cyclone Bingiza

The report said it was "too early to estimate impacts on agriculture" in the northeast region of Mandritsara, as well as the southeast districts of Vangaindrano, Farafangana, Vohipeno, Ikongo, Midongy sud, Befotaka and Manakara.

Initial findings by aid agencies found that an estimated 40 percent of food crops and up to 10 percent of cash crops are damaged in Manambolosy (in the northeastern district of Mananara Nord). In Antanambaobe (in the same district) 70 percent of crops are damaged, the report said.

OCHA’s Gelas said the main issue in the aftermath of the cyclone was food security, especially in the south where an assessment team was scheduled to visit in the next few days to determine, among other things, whether there was a possibility of replanting specific rice seeds to enable a harvest in April.
510. Jax82
Gas prices today.



I see everyone had a lot of fun trashing me after I went to bed last night. Well off to work on the nasty job of making a living.
Yeah, some refuse to show up to work when it's their job. Instead, the flee like children to other states to hide out.
Wind has created big waves in the Mediterranean Sea, stranding some of the Americans & Canadians trying to escape Libya (which sounds totally out of hand this morning). 4500 Chinese made it out by sea but the other ferry is too small for the waves.
I hope and pray the last space shuttle mission goes off without any problems!
Dat a lotta bad mojo all in one place skyepony.

Kah-"Daffy" just made another statement.

He now Blames Uprising on "Osama Bin Laden".


Can we fit him on top one of the SRB's ?

We got 6 plus hours til launch still.
Quoting overwash12:
I hope and pray the last space shuttle mission goes off without any problems!


Today's is (& I'll add tentatively) the 3rd to last. But the scheduled last for Discovery.

Sure Pat...bring him on:)
Hatch View, Shuttle Discovery

Launch Complex 39A White Room Cam

e V


Bonus Live View of ATV2 docking to ISS



Quoting Jax82:
Gas prices today.





we ain't seen nothing yet. the protests have only just begun.
News footage captured (by me) on Tuesday of the Christchurch Quake.

We're getting ready in America to have the chaos like in the middle east, wait till all the funding cuts come out, food prices, gas prices, jobs, ect...
Link

video from cnn 132 launches in 132 seconds
VERY BUSY HERE

sorry about the caps- I got 8th floor view to the south

when is the launch?

Quoting Skyepony:


Today's is (& I'll add tentatively) the 3rd to last. But the scheduled last for Discovery.

Sure Pat...bring him on:)
 O.K. Thank-you for setting me straight. We'll I hope the third to the last mission goes perfect!
Southern Calif Weather Update:

cloudy with a chance of afternoon SQUAWK!!!!
Post 510....

so, no complaints from anyone about gas prices unless you live in California....
Launch is sched for 4:50 PM EDT,,
ATV2 KEPLER Cargo Carrier now Hard Docked to ISS



HWY 1 is a "GO" for Discovery.





thanks pat

Amy- I'd complain, but ya'll got more reason to complain than me
so there is time to grab daffy and strap him to the nose for a first class shot off the planet

hey junky!

:)
hey water doggie!!!

:)
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showers with imbeded t shower moving nnw towards space centre
Hurricanejunky always respected your post.but your venomous attack back on this indivual is no better than his attack.I wish people could understand that the dems and the reps. are both the problem one is as bad as the other.Seems like this fox I believe that is how it is spelled news attacks is no better than someone attacking msnbc which is just as biased.Simple solution turn the channel on both.I guess this just illustrates my repetitive post that America is extremely divided and united we stand,and we are all Americans not the enemy means nothing anymore.Good day and God Bless.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Dude, you need to take your radical right wing psycho babble to the Faux News Misinforpinion Blog and leave the weather blog to those interested in WEATHER! Your posts are ridiculously stupid and woefully misinformed. You sound like yet another victim of Darth Murdoch's Jedi Mind tricks...try a little compassion or empathy for once in your life. The people who are being asked to "balance the budget" are those people who recently already took a paycut and are now being asked to give up another 18% of their pay. How would you fare with 18% less of your paycheck? These people make salaries in the 35k range on average. I think there are other groups of people who can much better afford to give up 18% of their income to help balance the budget. Especially when the governor comes in and gives an unwarranted tax breaks to people who don't need it. Talk about being bowled over by the weight of your own balls. Unbelievable! You'd rather pile on these people who are already some of the hardest hit by the current economic times and take away their collective voices. Shame on you...


1

It's sith brainwashing LOL
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Hurricanejunky always respected your post.but your venomous attack back on this indivual is no better than his attack.I wish people could understand that the dems and the reps. are both the problem one is as bad as the other.Seems like this fox I believe that is how it is spelled news attacks is no better than someone attacking msnbc which is just as biased.Simple solution turn the channel on both.I guess this just illustrates my repetitive post that America is extremely divided and united we stand,and we are all Americans not the enemy means nothing anymore.Good day and God Bless.


don't confuse StormJunkie with Hurricanejunkie- they are two different people
there is always time for cartoons
Quoting Jax82:
Gas prices today.



Wow, amazing how well you can see the taxes (and related cultures) in that.

Now can you show us the non-ethanol version?
;-)
It is usually slightly more expensive what with the free money being thrown at corn-ethanol...
What does, A church Pipe organ, a German u-boat, tram tracks, a camera and a cannon ball all owes its engineering DNA to??????
Quoting NRAamy:
hey junky!

:)


Hey!
Quoting AussieStorm:
What does, A church Pipe organ, a German u-boat, tram tracks, a camera and a cannon ball all owes its engineering DNA to??????


overcoming air resistance?
oh Aquak did not think that sounded like storm Junkie but the message is still the same.


88 Earthquakes in the last week, could these all be leading up to the big one?


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK/TX...WRN AR AND NWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241634Z - 241730Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITHIN BROADER WARM CONVEYOR FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR SOUTH
OF THE DFW METROPLEX...NWD INTO OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING
WITHIN A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY
STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LLJ INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IT APPEARS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING WILL
GRADUALLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ENABLING NEAR-SFC BASED
CONVECTION TO ROOT INTO MORE BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS.
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

..DARROW.. 02/24/2011


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32029634 35599561 35039295 31689387 32029634
Shuttle Countdown Status Home Page


T-03H00M & THE COUNTDOWN CLOCK IS HOLDING AT T-03H00M 232 NTD,ALL
HOLDING
PLANNED HOLD
IS 2 HOURS

**************************************
*THE NEXT PLANNED HOLD IS AT T-20M00S*
**************************************

ICE TEAM READY FOR PAD ENTRY 232 NTD,*ICE

CLEAR ICE TEAM & CLOSEOUT CREW TO PAD 232 NTD,SAFETY
SECURITY

PERFORM ICE/DEBRIS INSPECTION 105 NTD,*ICE

INGRESS ORBITER CREW COMPARTMENT 232 NTD,OTC,OVCC
132

GO FOR FLIGHT CREW WAKE UP 232 NTD

PERFORM COMM CHECKS 132 OTC,ASP

ALL ORB TEST TEAM SWITCH TO CHNL 212 212 OTC

CONFIGURE & INSPECT CREW MODULE FOR CREW 212 OTC,ASP,OVCC
INGRESS

PERFORM POTABLE SUPPLY WATER ADJUST 212 OTC,CECL

PERFORM IMU PRE-FLIGHT CALIBRATION 212 OTC,CGNC
NOT PERFORMED____________ (CONTINGENCY)

PERFORM ER OPEN LOOP CHECKS 132 NTD,OTC,CCSE
CBRS, RANGE
232
175

ER OPEN LOOP CHECK COMPLETE 232 NTD,OTC,CCSE
CBRS, RANGE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Hurricanejunky always respected your post.but your venomous attack back on this indivual is no better than his attack.I wish people could understand that the dems and the reps. are both the problem one is as bad as the other.Seems like this fox I believe that is how it is spelled news attacks is no better than someone attacking msnbc which is just as biased.Simple solution turn the channel on both.I guess this just illustrates my repetitive post that America is extremely divided and united we stand,and we are all Americans not the enemy means nothing anymore.Good day and God Bless.


Thanks I think. I respect your viewpoint but I still disagree with you. I think I've held my tongue long enough. When the petulant brat in the room keeps on going with his little temper tantrums and derisive jabs at those who differ with his political views, it's time to say something. People like that need to be told things in unpleasant terms because hostility seems to be the only language they speak. I am tired of sugar coating and trying to be nice.

As for Faux News, I never watch it so I do practice "turning the channel" as you suggested but when I have been exposed to it I feel like I need to be wearing a hazmat suit. The ridiculous opinions and nuggets they pull out of their butts is on par with toxic waste. That's my take. I thank you for the civil response. Have a great day.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


88 Earthquakes in the last week, could these all be leading up to the big one?

From what I have been reading they do not yet have a grip on the reason for these quakes. Not seeing sstress build up on the Reelfoot fault but there may be a stress on another fault line further to the West of the Mississippi valley area, not enough sensors to determine.
Quoting aquak9:


overcoming air resistance?

close, but what piece of engineering marvel owes its DNA to those things i mentioned before?
Quoting fireflymom:

From what I have been reading they do not yet have a grip on the reason for these quakes. Not seeing sstress build up on the Reelfoot fault but there may be a stress on another fault line further to the West of the Mississippi valley area, not enough sensors to determine.

Could it be from an unknown fault?
Steel
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Thanks I think. I respect your viewpoint but I still disagree with you. I think I've held my tongue long enough. When the petulant brat in the room keeps on going with his little temper tantrums and derisive jabs at those who differ with his political views, it's time to...
Join him?
Ehh, I just don't see why.
Google Gas Fracking,Conway,Ark,earthquakes
Spot on atto
Texas Earthquakes Maybe Triggered by Mining Process


23 Feb 2011


The injection deep into the earth of wastewater from natural gas mining may have spurred a series of small earthquakes in Texas, according to a new study.

Between Oct. 30, 2008, and May 31, 2009, more than 180 minor tremors were recorded near the Dallas-Fort Worth airport, an area unaccustomed to shaky ground. The quaking commenced shortly after the opening of a local disposal well for the liquid byproducts of natural gas mining — mostly brine, or saltwater.


"When these earthquakes first occurred we had no idea if they were tectonic or if they were human-induced," said Cliff Frohlich, a geophysicist at The University of Texas at Austin.

Natural earthquakes had been felt in other parts of the state, and human meddling had been tied to such movement elsewhere. The ground shook shortly after the filling of Lake Mead in the 1930s, for example, as well as after major oil extractions and fluid injections around the world.

While science can't prove that the injections triggered the Texas shaking, Frohlich suggested that new data, which show a large number of quakes striking close in time and space to the well's activity, does make a mere coincidence unlikely.
Quoting Patrap:
Google Gas Fracking,Conway,Ark,earthquakes



There is no evidence they are related pat
Quoting aquak9:


don't confuse StormJunkie with Hurricanejunkie- they are two different people


I can't speak for Stormjunkie but I know him well enough that I'm sure he'd agree with me.

For the record, my name is hurricanejunky not Hurricanejunkie...
I said to google it,,I never said they were related.


The devil is in the mind.

The Hannity Mind tricks dont work well on me ..

"He's not the droid your Looking for"..

LOL


J/K
Quoting Patrap:
Google Gas Fracking,Conway,Ark,earthquakes


Arkansas Earthquakes in Greenbrier Increase as Natural Gas Drilling and Fracking Increase!!!

Quoting atmoaggie:
Join him?
Ehh, I just don't see why.


Uh no, I was trying to put and end to a stupid debate. Obviously left and right feel differently about the Wisconsin situation no matter who's right or wrong. The whole point is that someone ought to try and move that particular discussion somewhere else since it has absolutely nothing to do with weather or the current blog topic. I guess that's never stopped anyone before but does everyone here really want this to be a political blog? No...which was my point.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Arkansas Earthquakes in Greenbrier Increase as Natural Gas Drilling and Fracking Increase!!!



Not really, There were swarms in 1980, and 2001, according to USGS, they are not related to fracking
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I can't speak for Stormjunkie but I know him well enough that I'm sure he'd agree with me.

For the record, my name is hurricanejunky not Hurricanejunkie...



heh heh heh...you're probably right...
aussie...I'm wracking my brain. I'm still thinking air, steel, true linearity...

b'sides hun...it's been a rough day here at work...
you can not sit here and debate whether or not something is causing earthquakes. but you can sit there and take into consideration that the possibly of many things is causing them. my 2 cents.

gas prices here have gone up 30 cents in a week. so i'm left with 28 cents or -32 cents?

Doc has these kind of advertisements on the site at the top, taking money anywhere I guess

but you can sit there and take into consideration that the possibly of many things is causing them.

best damn post I've seen in weeks- - no matter what the subject is
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Uh no, I was trying to put and end to a stupid debate. Obviously left and right feel differently about the Wisconsin situation no matter who's right or wrong. The whole point is that someone ought to try and move that particular discussion somewhere else since it has absolutely nothing to do with weather or the current blog topic. I guess that's never stopped anyone before but does everyone here really want this to be a political blog? No...which was my point.
hokey dokey. Just seemed like it wasn't necessary to me and maybe a little bit like that which you were incited by...

Just sayin. Re-read 531 and and maybe see what I'm talking about.
Desperate times I tell ya, can't get in bed with the Russians Doc
Do you have a link?

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Not really, There were swarms in 1980, and 2001, according to USGS, they are not related to fracking
Folks are really going to cringe when Oil Hits 200plus a BBl.

I hear the Saudi Kings are stocking up on Hair and Mustache Black Dye, and their Families are Googling "Destinations" a Lot.

Quoting McBill:
This just in from the WTF department:

Conservative Utah group begins recall effort for Wisconsin Democratic senators




This is an interesting development. I'm a little peeved that a group from a different state has butted into ours.

How does this group from Utah think they can come here to influence our politics? They've been screaming for the recall of the 14 state senators that crossed the state line to stall the vote. My district is one of those 14. If it wasn't for their delaying tactic, the bill would have been approved after only six (6!) days. Six days is not enough time for everyone to read the bill and have an open discussion.

However, as the linked article states, while Wisconsin can recall a governor it can only be done after the governor has been in office for one year. Walker's term just started in January.

In US state houses, Tea Party bills spark outrage
AFPWed Feb 23, 11:46 pm ET



In Utah, civil liberty groups have cried foul for what they see as an attempt to legalize clear discrimination.

The "Religious Conscience Protection Act," introduced by state legislator Richard Anderson, would ensure a person's "sincerely held religious beliefs" would not be violated over same-sex marriage.

In that vein, it also attempted to legalize denying "goods or services... that facilitate the perpetuation of a marriage."

The bill, said Troy Price, political director of One Iowa, a state-focused gay rights group had been a "shameful and hurtful attack on the institution of marriage."

The measure, he added, would not have just affect couples in a same-sex relationship "but opens the door to discrimination against interracial and interfaith couples."

The bill has foundered since being voted down in a judiciary subcommittee on February 9, but Anderson told the Des Moines Register after the hearing that although some people have "issues" with the bill, "we just have to continue to work on it."
thank you aqua
Quoting aquak9:
aussie...I'm wracking my brain. I'm still thinking air, steel, true linearity...

b'sides hun...it's been a rough day here at work...

The Answer........ Space Shuttle
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Not really, There were swarms in 1980, and 2001, according to USGS, they are not related to fracking


Don't really say much on here, mostly lurk. But I grew up in that area, I'm now 53 years old. When I was very young, we constantly had tremors, nothing new here. There was no natural gas drilling/fraccing going on in that area then to cause it.
Quoting AussieStorm:
VIDEO: New Zealand's Darkest Day


impossible for me to watch without crying
I appreciate your on-the-ground evidence, but VA's comment said "according to the USGS" so I figured there must be an article or dataset that VA was referring to with that statement...

I've no doubt that there are "natural" triggers for earthquakes in your area, but there is ample evidence to show that things like fracking and deep injection of fluids for other reasons can definitely trigger earthquakes. This has been proven conclusively and I can provide links if you'd like.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that all earthquakes are caused by man, but there is absolutely no doubt that SOME earthquakes have man-made causes. The only way to know which is which is to look at the data. That's why I'm requesting VA's data...

Quoting weatherneophyte:


Don't really say much on here, mostly lurk. But I grew up in that area, I'm now 53 years old. When I was very young, we constantly had tremors, nothing new here. There was no natural gas drilling/fraccing going on in that area then to cause it.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Doc has these kind of advertisements on the site at the top, taking money anywhere I guess


If you buy a subscription, ads like that will disappear from your screen. After all, Dr. Masters needs some way to cover the expenses of those who haven't paid his wallet-draining $0.20 per week fee. :-\

(And for what it's worth, he doesn't hand-select the ads; an external piece of software does that for him.)
Quoting weatherneophyte:


Don't really say much on here, mostly lurk. But I grew up in that area, I'm now 53 years old. When I was very young, we constantly had tremors, nothing new here. There was no natural gas drilling/fraccing going on in that area then to cause it.

The injection wells in and around that area may be the cause of the uptick in seismic activity, and they may not be. But--as with the pumping of 800 tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each second--you'd have to be pretty narrow-minded to think shoving pollutants (many carcinogenic) into the ground at high pressure is a completely benign process.
Quoting jwh250:
Or just use code FMUYZ

Or stop being cheap, and buy a subscription. Or stop complaining about the ads. :-)
Nice line setting up in TX, hopefully get a shot of some rain


The yellow is a large tornado watch. looks like some possible action is expected.


SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 13
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS


EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL
600 PM CST.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER ACROSS ERN OK
INTO NERN TX AHEAD OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
WITH AIR MASS NOW FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND NEARLY
UNCAPPED...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WILL INCREASE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH THRU THE AFTERNOON. E/W WARM

FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AR WILL BE AN AREA FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...HALES
Quoting atmoaggie:
hokey dokey. Just seemed like it wasn't necessary to me and maybe a little bit like that which you were incited by...

Just sayin. Re-read 531 and and maybe see what I'm talking about.


Sorry if the delivery wasn't sugar coated enough for you but as I stated in a previous post, I was fed up with the dialogue and childish behavior so I responded harshly and I thought it was warranted.

I don't seem to recall you scrutinizing the idiots that started this whole conversation. Wonder why that is?

Quoting Neapolitan:

If you buy a subscription, ads like that will disappear from your screen. After all, Dr. Masters needs some way to cover the expenses of those who haven't paid his wallet-draining $0.20 per week fee. :-\

(And for what it's worth, he doesn't hand-select the ads; an external piece of software does that for him.)

Thanks, Nea. That explains why I didn't see the ads.

I think this one might be a bit serious pat - if it goes. Its warm down south.
That's an impressive squall line... Hope everyone stays safe today.

(Edit: hope I'm using the term correctly there, but please do correct me if not).

Quoting Patrap:
Quoting greentortuloni:
From wikipedia:

Gingrich has been married three times. In 1962, he married Jackie Battley, his former high school geometry teacher, when he was 19 years old and she was 26.[67][68] They had two daughters. In the spring of 1980, Gingrich left Battley after having an affair with Marianne Ginther.[69][70] According to Battley, Gingrich visited her while she was in the hospital recovering from cancer surgery to discuss the details of their divorce. Six months after it was final, Gingrich wed Ginther in 1981.[71][72]

In the mid-1990s, Gingrich began an affair with House of Representatives staffer Callista Bisek, who is 23 years his junior; they continued their affair during the Lewinsky scandal.[73] In 2000, Gingrich married Bisek shortly after his divorce from second wife Ginther. He and Callista currently live in McLean, Virginia.


Oh the family values of it all!!
Nasty,,nasty stuff.

Itsa gonna POP soon nuff seems.

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.





SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 13
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL
600 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER ACROSS ERN OK
INTO NERN TX AHEAD OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
WITH AIR MASS NOW FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND NEARLY
UNCAPPED...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WILL INCREASE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH THRU THE AFTERNOON. E/W WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AR WILL BE AN AREA FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...HALES

Quoting JohnTucker:
I think this one might be a bit serious pat - if it goes. Its warm down south.


Yep...81 and balmy here in SCentral MS...will see it later..after dark as usual
Yea an they don't need it where its going.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 1143 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR AS WELL AS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER
REPORTS INDICATE THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING TO
THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE WARNED AREA AND PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. LATEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY NEAR STREAMS...CREEKS...AND
SMALL RIVERS.


* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLACK
ROCK...HOXIE...MARMADUKE...PARAGOULD...RECTOR...WA LNUT RIDGE...
CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK AND LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK.




National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office
Memphis, TN


This just popped up:

Quoting weatherneophyte:


Don't really say much on here, mostly lurk. But I grew up in that area, I'm now 53 years old. When I was very young, we constantly had tremors, nothing new here. There was no natural gas drilling/fraccing going on in that area then to cause it.


Speaking of Fracking...have you seen Gasland?

Scary and disturbing...
This must be where they are worried about the flooding:

">

Look at all the blizzard/winter storm warnings too. Stretches from about the west coast to the east coast.
.."With all the Science I dont understand,,its just my job,5 days a week"..


Welcome to the Flight Deck..


Cdr and Plt ingressing and strapping in with Lotsa Guiding hands.
Mid-deck Mission Specialist's as well,




Looking at the models Tennessee and NE Alabama, Ga then the Carolinas look to be in for some severe weather tonight/tomorrow then on up the east coast.

Those springtime night/early morning tornadoes are the worst. Not to mention floods.

Have to go over yonder to do some work,

TURN ON THOSE WEATHER RADIOS!!! Ill check back in a bit.
:)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Yep...81 and balmy here in SCentral MS...will see it later..after dark as usual


Yea we will have to see. Hard to tell if its going to materialize yet and where precisely (see bottom on report).




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR
TN VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE SRN PLNS ENE INTO THE LWR OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG S/W TROUGH NOW SRN HI PLAINS ON TRACK AND WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS
NRN AR INTO KY.
WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS ERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR AND
SRN TN WILL LIFT NWD THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A MOIST WARM SECTOR TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MS VLY INTO TN VALLEY.

COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND ASCENT WITH PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH...CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH PW INCREASING TO AOA 1.50
INCHES/...AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK OF SVR
TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR/TN AND ADJACENT STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.


...SERN OK/ERN TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN VLY/LWR OH VLYS...
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MODERATE SFC HEATING WITH TEMPS RISING THRU THE
70S WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...TO
SUPPORT NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ACROSS NERN TX INTO SERN
OK/WRN AR AS 90-120 METER MID-LVL HEIGHT FALLS WITH UPR IMPULSE
SWEEP ENEWD.

RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...7C/KM...AND SIZABLE
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AS THE STORMS

MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY ENEWD.

A FEW STORMS ALSO MAY FORM NEAR INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ENE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ERN OK/WRN AR INTO
WRN/MIDDLE TN.

WITH LOW TO MID-LVL SHEAR INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE OVERSPREADING THE REGION...ARKANSAS AREA STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH-IMPACT SVR WEATHER INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/HIGH WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT NEAR WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/NERN AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN...WHERE 300-400
M2/S2 0-1KM SRH WILL EXIST INVOF DEEPENING SFC LOW.


THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE CURRENT MDT MAY BE A LITTLE FAR N
INTO SRN KY GIVEN THE CURRENT VERY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER
WITH THE TRACK OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THIS AREA THERE
IS AT LEAST A THREAT OF AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOS. THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN
THE MDT RISK ATTM.

THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE QLCS BY MID-EVE...WITH
OVERALL LINE MOVEMENT TO THE ENE ACROSS TN/LWR OH VLYS...AND
DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO LA/MS/AL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUING
THREAT DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES LIKELY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO

THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRACK OF SFC LOW ...AND FARTHER S IN
AREA OF GREATER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IN MIDDLE TN...MS...AND NRN/WRN
AL.

..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/24/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NEXRAD Radar
Shreveport, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Quoting hurricanejunky:


Speaking of Fracking...have you seen Gasland?

Scary and disturbing...


our government states what is the safe amount of toxins allowed in our drinking water. do you really trust them to tell you the truth? if anyone wants to know about reverse osmosis for truly clean drinking water, email me. the systems are basic and are installed under your sink. but you have to make that you get the right one because some companies lie and say there stuff is the best.
Nasty-looking dry-line:





Quoting Levi32:
Nasty-looking dry-line:







Levi, can you tell me what is dangerous about a dry line? I have never understood that at all.
It is a classic set up levi a bit east, but scary. I would think we will see some strong storm events this evening.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Levi, can you tell me what is dangerous about a dry line? I have never understood that at all.


It's a different class of front. It's a boundary between two air masses, but instead of them having different temperatures like cold/warm fronts, they have differences in moisture content (dewpoint). Moist air has less mass and more energy at the same temperature than dry air, so it tends to get undercut by the dry air and lifted upwards along the dry-line, similar to a cold front. This boundary will often light up with severe t-storms during the afternoon due to the resulting lift. The dry air in the mid-levels coming around the storm system can also aid in creating convective instability in the warm afternoon, further intensifying the situation.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Speaking of Fracking...have you seen Gasland?

Scary and disturbing...


Yes, I did see that. A very funny parody. Wait, it wasn't a parody? Nah, it definitely was a parody. Look, I haven't lived there for almost 30 years, but I do own a portion of the old family farm still, and it has three frac'd wells on it right now. I also have family that still live there, a brother that lives within 100 feet of a newly frac'd well. There have been no ill health results, no complaints. There is a very small group of people who do complain, and I would bet a large sum that of that small group - not a singly one of them own their mineral rights.

Going back to lurk mode now.
000
FLUS44 KSHV 241812
HWOSHV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1212 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011


SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARIO N-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY- ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1212 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...DEEP EAST
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE AREA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE STAGE HAS BEEN SET FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE I-30
CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE NOW INTO THE DALLAS AREA.
THIS
FEATURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING IN
BEHIND DURING THIS EVENING. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT IN THIS TORNADO THREAT
WHICH WILL EXIST ALL AFTERNOON WITH ANY SUPER CELLS THAT DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LINE OF
WESTERN MOST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE...EXPECT A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALL EVENING UNTIL EXITING NORTH
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND

DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND COULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED FOR TORNADO WATCH 13...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVATION OF HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING.


"A dynamic mid/upper-level storm system will race northeastward over the southern Plains and Mid-South today, bringing the possibility of severe weather to parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas and the Mid-South region. As dewpoints climb into the 60s along I-40 in Oklahoma and Arkansas, a surface low pressure system will deepen in response to the approaching mid/upper-level disturbance, then translate eastward across the MO/AR border by this evening. This surface low will lift an associated warm front into the Ozarks by this evening, progressing northeastward toward the Ohio River Valley overnight. Warm, moist air across the warm sector -- east of the dryline in TX and OK, and south of the warm front -- will result in weak instability, but low-level wind shear will be significant across the Ozarks and mid-South into Thursday night. Although great uncertainty remains as to whether adequate destabilization will result, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this area with a Moderate Risk for today. However, the process of a heightened severe weather threat developing later today will hinge on whether early, ongoing precip can give way to wide areas of clearing, and greater instability can materializes, as the threat for discrete supercells and tornadoes will be higher across portions of the Mid-South in this case. Regardless, severe storms appear likely across east Arkansas, and the western portions of Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi later this evening. Heavy rains are also of great concern, as the lower Ohio into mid-Mississippi Valley area could see 3+" over a relatively short time frame. We will also be watching a separate storm system which models suggest will impact the same general areas by Sunday. This second system appears to be the more potent of the two at this time."

Source
626. Jax82
Looking at the extended forecasts, would it be wise to say that Florida (Jax southward) probably wont see any more Freezes this year? Sure looks that way, and it makes me happy.
Oil will probably approach the level Pat suggested if we do not stop our dependence on foriegn oil.I know neaopolitan post some alarming stats about our enviromental decadence and he has a lot of merit to what he is saying.Now if we can avoid the hazards to a minimum like the BP disaster, I still feel offshore drilling in American waters is still a probably our best solution for the time being.People fail to realize the overall economic impact one gets from such industry.First you have to build the rigs, which in turn requires skilled labor and creates jobs.The building of a oil Rig is a detailed and large task been there done that.Also thier are the vendors who supply the shipyard or other industry that builds the rigs.More jobs and money in the economy.Then the extra food suppliers,retaurants and real estate sales that create jobs and spur the economy.Now before you write me off as a complete lunatic, as sector vp. for ngss gulf coast i have poor grammar skills lol but i have a very good idea how supply and chain works in industry and stimulates economic growth.American made,american suppliers American jobs .And most important American controlled.I know neo and others including myself would worry about our ecosystem,and I agree.But lets face it dem or rep or in bed with the oil companies and they are not going to alternative energy on any full scale.I rarely agree with Obama but he was right on his format to push forward offshore drilling.The BP disaster stopped that.My solution certainly has many flaws and as a life long resident of the Ms.Coast I sure do not ever want to see a disaster like last year.Promise me we can regulate and control safely I think it would be to our advantage.A lot to chew on but we have to do something quickly.
Quoting weatherneophyte:


Yes, I did see that. A very funny parody. Wait, it wasn't a parody? Nah, it definitely was a parody. Look, I haven't lived there for almost 30 years, but I do own a portion of the old family farm still, and it has three frac'd wells on it right now. I also have family that still live there, a brother that lives within 100 feet of a newly frac'd well. There have been no ill health results, no complaints. There is a very small group of people who do complain, and I would bet a large sum that of that small group - not a singly one of them own their mineral rights.

Going back to lurk mode now.

So you're saying that the amount of money landowners can make off of fracking is enough to silence any environmental or health concerns they may have about the process. I gotcha. For the record, that's precisely what the energy companies are counting on; they know that handing out fat checks can buy them lots and lots of cover.
The good news is that due to the abnormal behavior of this winter, the north Gulf of Mexico SSTs are much cooler than they normally are in a La Nina winter at this time, only 14-18C. This caps dewpoints under 70F and places the main burden of warming the air on the land mass. This is still a significant event for late February, but it would have been worse in a normal La Nina winter.

Right on Dr Masters,

Way to let is loose.

Your commentary was an excellent summary of the situation our World faces today.

Climate Change + Peak oil is tough stuff.

We gotta build resilient community which offer a prosperity of food, housing and healthcare that resolve these issues.

Great work
patrick
Quoting Levi32:

The good news is that due to the abnormal behavior of this winter, the north Gulf of Mexico SSTs are much cooler than they normally are in a La Nina winter at this time, only 14-18C. This caps dewpoints under 70F and places the main burden of warming the air on the land mass. This is still a significant event for late February, but it would have been worse in a normal La Nina winter.





The most recent La Nina winter we had was 2008. Here is the February 20-22 GOM SST difference between 2011 and 2008 (2011 minus 2008):


Discovery Buttoned up and on time for a 4:50 PM EST Launch attempt on her last flight to the Final Frontier

Quoting Levi32:


It's a different class of front. It's a boundary between two air masses, but instead of them having different temperatures like cold/warm fronts, they have differences in moisture content (dewpoint). Moist air has less mass and more energy at the same temperature than dry air, so it tends to get undercut by the dry air and lifted upwards along the dry-line, similar to a cold front. This boundary will often light up with severe t-storms during the afternoon due to the resulting lift. The dry air in the mid-levels coming around the storm system can also aid in creating convective instability in the warm afternoon, further intensifying the situation.


Thank you. Now I have some understanding of it.
Quoting Neapolitan:

So you're saying that the amount of money landowners can make off of fracking is enough to silence any environmental or health concerns they may have about the process. I gotcha. For the record, that's precisely what the energy companies are counting on; they know that handing out fat checks can buy them lots and lots of cover.


Ok, I'll come back out of lurk mode one more time. No, that is not at all what I said, and I wonder how you mined that out of what I said. What I said was that yes, there are those that complain. Has anyone of them been able to prove any ill results or issues due to the fracing? Not to this date. Is there jealousy over not owning mineral rights? Of course. As I stated in my earlier post, I grew up there. When I was a child living on the farm, the mineral rights were almost worthless, nothing was ever going to come from that land except more rocks. Therefore, many farmers sold off their mineral rights to get that little bit of money. Now, they and their heirs are left with land that could've made them rich, while their neighbors whose ancestors held on to those mineral rights are actually getting rich. There is a lot of resentment that comes from that. Again, NO ONE in that part of the world has so far been able to prove an actual issue caused by that drilling and fracing. Secondly, everyone wants to point out that the earthquakes in the area are proof that the frac'ing is damaging the environment. I merely stated that I distinctively remember as a young child experincing those tremors happening quite frequently. I'm 53 years old, and I was just old enough to remember it, so that was probably 46 - 47 years ago. Definitely long before there were any wells other than water wells being drilled there. Does this prove that fracing the wells is NOT causing those tremors? Of course not, but this is nothing new to the area. It would be like blaming housing development in the foothills of the Rockies on the cause of increased snowfall this year.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Oil will probably approach the level Pat suggested if we do not stop our dependence on foriegn oil.I know neaopolitan post some alarming stats about our enviromental decadence and he has a lot of merit to what he is saying.Now if we can avoid the hazards to a minimum like the BP disaster, I still feel offshore drilling in American waters is still a probably our best solution for the time being.People fail to realize the overall economic impact one gets from such industry.First you have to build the rigs, which in turn requires skilled labor and creates jobs.The building of a oil Rig is a detailed and large task been there done that.Also thier are the vendors who supply the shipyard or other industry that builds the rigs.More jobs and money in the economy.Then the extra food suppliers,retaurants and real estate sales that create jobs and spur the economy.Now before you write me off as a complete lunatic, as sector vp. for ngss gulf coast i have poor grammar skills lol but i have a very good idea how supply and chain works in industry and stimulates economic growth.American made,american suppliers American jobs .And most important American controlled.I know neo and others including myself would worry about our ecosystem,and I agree.But lets face it dem or rep or in bed with the oil companies and they are not going to alternative energy on any full scale.I rarely agree with Obama but he was right on his format to push forward offshore drilling.The BP disaster stopped that.My solution certainly has many flaws and as a life long resident of the Ms.Coast I sure do not ever want to see a disaster like last year.Promise me we can regulate and control safely I think it would be to our advantage.A lot to chew on but we have to do something quickly.


The only disagreement I have with this is that we can use that same effort in finding an alternate energy source, be it solar, hydro, tidal, or wind. Any of these investments would be every bit as productive and benifitual to the economy as expanding our oil resources. And if thats the case, then why choose the method with the most draw backs to human health and environmental habitats. Especially when the other sources of energy are just as efficient as oil.

Quoting hurricanejunky:


Sorry if the delivery wasn't sugar coated enough for you but as I stated in a previous post, I was fed up with the dialogue and childish behavior so I responded harshly and I thought it was warranted.

I don't seem to recall you scrutinizing the idiots that started this whole conversation. Wonder why that is?
Because they aren't visible as per my filter settings and I don't usually have the time to hang around and see what every lowest rank poster has to say.

What's with the name calling? You know how it gets in here once that starts up...(though, really, has been fairly nasty for months)

CBS 5 Weather: Current Conditions, Live Radar, Latest Forecast
Photo Gallery: Historic Bay Area Snow Images
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS 5 / BCN) — Cold, wet weather will once again put an icy grip on the Bay Area as we head toward this weekend, bringing with it a chance that San Francisco residents could see some snow, forecasters said Wednesday.
Talk began swirling in recent days that snow could drop on San Francisco for the first time in 35 years.
National Weather Service forecaster Bob Benjamin said that while snow would likely fall at elevations lower than last weekend, it was still too soon to know for certain if there would be flurries in the city.
If the coldest predictions materialize, "In some form, people at or near sea level will see snow in the air," Benjamin said.
A southern-moving unstable cold front carrying moisture was expected to coast into the Bay Area come late Thursday, Benjamin said.
The front was expected to sit over the Bay Area and by Sunday morning bring record-breaking cold temperatures, with 20s to lower 30s forecast over the North Bay valleys, upper 20s to lower 30s around most of the San Francisco Bay shoreline southward through the Santa Clara and Salinas valleys. Higher elevation spots were expected to mostly be in the 20s.

seeing snow where the ocean meets the land seems so strange to me
Regardless continued dependence on oil will have disastrous consequences.

As oil becomes more scarce shipping costs, fertilizers, fuel for equipment etc. will also inflate. While we will be able to cover it, the developing world will not. We will end up paying those bills also. Not just in emergency food shipments either by the looks of recent unrest.

It is in our interest to make the transition for the rest of the world as gradual as possible while maintaining low prices and low demand pressures.

Also it would be better for the US not appear as the world climate disaster instigator for obvious reasons not to mention whatever we can do to slow the change process down would save us expense.

All these things will cost us excessively if not handled reasonably.
@636. I'll second the nastiness. I was "invited" to not be here for about 7 months and since I've been back, it isn't the same blog I left. Granted we're off season, but there are those now that are pure talking points and attack. A shame, really...
639 - I totally blame the people here that allowed unreasonable conversation to flourish thus encouraging incivility.

From the complaints at the slightest discussion of climate issues to the blatantly ad hominem arguments allowed its been their fault from the beginning. Civility flows form reason in that the more structured, sourced and logical an argument becomes the less likely it can contain intentional incivility.
The whole point of "fracking" is to use high pressure injection to fracture rock in order to release natural gas that cannot otherwise be liberated from the rock. This gas is trapped because there is little or no connectivity between the pore spaces in the rock... Fracking increases the connectivity between the pore spaces by physically cracking the rock with high pressure fluid.

The reason why this can lead to health issues is that groundwater and natural gas often occur in the same general area. Groundwater is usually in shallower units and natural gas is trapped in deeper units. In natural systems, the two are usually separated by relatively impermeable layers like a thick silt or clay unit (these units are impermeable to both gas and groundwater). There are probably natural systems where gas and groundwater coexist, but unless the groundwater reservoir is what we call a "confined aquifer", the natural gas has probably long-ago bubbled out of the groundwater and seeped to the surface and on into the atmosphere.

In cases where the physical distance and/or barriers between the natural gas units and the groundwater units are relatively small, fracking can basically connect the groundwater and natural gas reservoirs... natural gas then dissolves into the groundwater, polluting it. If you're unlucky enough to have your home's water supply well sunk into a groundwater reservoir that has been polluted by natural gas you may or may not notice it right away. If it's really bad you might notice a strange taste or smell to the water and if it's really, really bad then you will actually get enough natural gas coming out of your faucet to cause combustion, like this. Perhaps the worst situation would be only moderate pollution of the groundwater by natural gas. In these cases, families might drink moderately contaminated water for years without knowing it. This can ultimately lead to a plethora of health issues.

It is definitely possible to frac a well without causing noticeable pollution to the groundwater. For instance, if the groundwater and natural gas reservoirs are separated by a sufficiently thick impermeable layer, or if there isn't a usable groundwater reservoir near the natural gas reservoir. But just because YOUR water wasn't contaminated by fracking doesn't mean your neighbor's water had the same fate. The geology of our planet is far too complex to make blanket statements like that.


Quoting weatherneophyte:


Again, NO ONE in that part of the world has so far been able to prove an actual issue caused by that drilling and fracing. Secondly, everyone wants to point out that the earthquakes in the area are proof that the frac'ing is damaging the environment. I merely stated that I distinctively remember as a young child experincing those tremors happening quite frequently.
641. Your hands ain't exactly clean...especially when you use language like in 640.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
The good thing about being misused by the Denial trolls so much on my john tucker (sorry was logged in on my jflorida over here) is I feel free to say whatever I want - Atmo is notorious for jumping in a conservation from the far right completely uninformed. Thats his MO.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
639 - I totally blame the people here that allowed unreasonable conversation to flourish thus encouraging incivility.

From the complaints at the slightest discussion of climate issues to the blatantly ad hominem arguments allowed its been their fault from the beginning. Civility flows form reason in that the more structured, sourced and logical an argument becomes the less likely it can contain intentional incivility.

Back to back, even. Hard to miss when it's this easy.
Read back a discussion in its entirety before you comment on it in any way.

What do I have to do with it? You jumped in this argument.

I have no bearing on this other than to point out atmo jumped in before reading the entire rest of posts, pointing out historical tendency and your lame attempt to drag me into it.
And sorry for the long post. I've got two geology degrees and I'm a professional hydrologist, so I know a little sumthin' about fracking and groundwater contamination. I kept it as short as I could... :)

Here's the one sentence summary: though it won't do so in all cases, fracking has definitely been shown to contaminate groundwater when natural gas and groundwater occur in close proximity.
Regardless, I dont care anymore. Lets see a change if you are sincere. No more hip shot unqualified complaints. Then I will be wrong for sure.

Discus the matter at hand reasonably. Make valid arguments to support your stand.

Being wrong means you are correcting yourself to a more true state. I rather enjoy it.
Quoting MrMixon:
And sorry for the long post. I've got two geology degrees and I'm a professional hydrologist, so I know a little sumthin' about fracking and groundwater contamination. I kept it as short as I could... :)

Here's the one sentence summary: though it won't do so in all cases, fracking has definitely been shown to contaminate groundwater when natural gas and groundwater occur in close proximity.


Could you also summarize the relationship between fracking and seismic activity...thanks
Quoting atmoaggie:
You brought me into it, pal.

I don't need to read any other posts if I think someone is being uncouth in any single post and telling them so.

But I'll try to better conform to the JFLORIDA rules of posting, bless your little heart.


check your WU mail.
2129 GMT (4:29 p.m. EST)
The Air Force-controlled Range is working the problem in hopes of getting the computer system back online for launch at 4:50 p.m. EST.

2127 GMT (4:27 p.m. EST)
The Eastern Range is "no go" at current time because of a problem with the central command computer.
Here's the quickest summary I can provide:

"Fracking" uses high pressure fluids to fracture rock. Seismic events like earthquakes are due to the release of subterranean pressures. Fracturing rock in the right place can make it easier for those pressures to be released.

It's sort of like how fracturing a bridge's concrete support structure could possibly cause the bridge to collapse.

Does that make sense?


Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Could you also summarize the relationship between fracking and seismic activity...thanks
Note, fracking can also lead to what's called subsidence. In these cases, the fracturing of the deep rock causes the overlying rock to collapse under its own weight. This can lead to minor earthquakes in places that have absolutely no "natural" seismic activity (i.e. - you don't need to have faults nearby for subsidence-based seismicity).
Quoting MrMixon:
Here's the quickest summary I can provide:

"Fracking" uses high pressure fluids to fracture rock. Seismic events like earthquakes are due to the release of subterranean pressures. Fracturing rock in the right place can make it easier for those pressures to be released.

It's sort of like how fracturing a bridge's concrete support structure could possibly cause the bridge to collapse.

Does that make sense?




It's make perfect sense....it seems to me that it would take very little effort to determine if the fracking is causing the Ark. tremors....a 4.1 is not that strong, but could fracking cause an even larger tremor ?
I researched the EQ's there a bit ago when I was looking a mass bird die off nearby.

There was petroleum collection there. And injection techniques were used nearby that i recall reading about.

Its also a very weird spot - that has a history like that person posted. If you look hard there is even a example of press chatter about a seeming "volcanic eruption" over a century ago in the area nearby.

Its an x-file. j/k but it would make a good one.
WTF, FOX news quoting some expert about $200 barrel oil if Saudi Oil shuts down...
lol, we'd be dead where we stand
Shows how stupid the Middle East Oil tycoons really are too, if it got that high, there wouldn't be food transport to get their own damn food to them.
70 seconds to go for Discovery Launch
TORNADO WARNING
TNC017-023-039-077-113-242230-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0002.110224T2142Z-110224T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

342 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTH CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 343 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MIFFLIN...OR 10 MILES
NORTH OF HENDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LEXINGTON...NATCHEZ TRACE STATE FOREST AND NATCHEZ TRACE STATE
PARK.



I think that is the cell the radar is a bit sketchy around there.
Not looking so good in the Tennessee Valley right now.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Back to back, even. Hard to miss when it's this easy.


and you're a real model of civility with your derisive and condescending posts. Gimme a break Atmo...
Quoting hurricanejunky:


and you're a real model of civility with your derisive and condescending posts. Gimme a break Atmo...
Okay.
I rarely dip into the asinine. If I do, call me on it.

And I challenge you to find any post I've made calling either a poster or his/her comments derisive names (your doing so prompted this discussion, which I'm not part of according to Mr. JF of the WuPD). Good luck in your search.
Let's stop arguing over the internet and talk about the weather.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Shows how stupid the Middle East Oil tycoons really are too, if it got that high, there wouldn't be food transport to get their own damn food to them.


You're kinda young, aren't you?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
354 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 352 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE WINONA...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF
PERRYVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 65
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
LAKE MAUMELLE... WILLIAMS JUNCTION... ROLAND...
PINNACLE MTN... MORGAN... MAYFLOWER...
MAUMELLE... MARCHE... LITTLE ITALY...
LAKE WINONA... CHENAL VALLEY... WYE MTN...
WYE... REFORM... PARON...
PALARM... NATURAL STEPS... WILFORD PEAK...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 130 AND 149.

Quoting 7080734:
Let's stop arguing over the internet and talk about the weather.
Yes, let's

SPC storm reports, so far:


That is not, apparently, a true severe wind report. Seems that lightning struck a Butt.
...
...Road house in N-Central Tenn.

(What?)

The report:
HOUSE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AROUND 430 AM. HOUSE LOCATED ON BUTT ROAD IN NORTH CENTRAL SUMNER CO. REPORTED BY EM MGR. (OHX)

(glad to see no injuries or fatalities on that, tho)
And I only say that, RitaEvac, because you don't seem to remember the OAPEC oil embargo in 1973; they will shut down the flow if they feel the need to do it...what other clout do they have?
It would be relatively easy to figure out, but only if you had the right data. You need to have a dense network of seismographs in the area in order to pinpoint the exact location of the epicenter(s). Then you need detailed records from the companies doing the fracking so you know exactly where they fracked, and exactly how much fluid they pumped. Of course, you'd also need a detailed knowledge of the subsurface geology, including a knowledge of existing faults and some estimation of the extant pressures on those faults.

At this point, I could only speculate on the possible causes for the Arkansas earthquakes. But the main points I was trying to make are:

1) Fracking has been proven to cause groundwater contamination.

2) Fracking has been proven to cause at least small earthquakes.

3) Fracking itself is not inherently evil, but it is highly irresponsible to perform fracking without taking into account the possibility of groundwater contamination and/or induced seismicity.


Quoting EYEStoSEA:


It's make perfect sense....it seems to me that it would take very little effort to determine if the fracking is causing the Ark. tremors....a 4.1 is not that strong, but could fracking cause an even larger tremor ?
Quoting Floodman:
And I only dsay thatm RitaEvac, because you don't seem to remember the OAPEC oil embargo in 1973; they will shut down the flow if they feel the need to do it...what other clout do they have?
Yep. Just like a union going on strike...they use what clout they have in the only way they can.
Now the interesting thing is that in the interest of keeping Iran down and throttling their economy it is in the best interest of middle eastern oil producers to keep the price under $90 or so a barrel, the break point Iran needs to continue financing their, umm, projects
The activity was supposed to pick up in the late afternoon/ evening. If it did.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Just like a union going on strike...they use what clout they have in the only way they can.


Yep...they can't very well sail a carrier group through the Panama Canal...LOL

Now, what sucks is that we all of us pay the price for politcizing oil...
Sorry didn't see 7080734 post.

Now for This month in history

February 2009 tornado outbreak

The February 2009 tornado outbreak primarily affected portions of the South Central United States on February 10, as well as sections of the Northeastern United States, on February 11. During the two-day period, 15 tornadoes touched down in seven states. Oklahoma was struck by six tornadoes, the most of any state. The first day of the outbreak produced the most tornadoes; the second brought mainly high wind damage and rain or snow in most of the Northeast.
Oh, and three cheers for STS-133!!

Hip hip...

Hip hip...

Hip hip...

Hooray!

Six brave souls just strapped themselves to what is essentially a giant bomb and blasted themselves safely into space. Awesome.
This just in:

Report clears U.S. scientists in "climategate"

An independent review of thousands of emails stolen from climate researchers has found that scientists at the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration did not manipulate data or otherwise engage in wrongdoing.

The report, issued by the Inspector General of the Department of Commerce, is at least the fifth report by various bodies in the United States and the United Kingdom to clear researchers at the heart of the so-called "Climategate" incident that galvanized vocal skeptics of the science of global warming.

The Inspector General's report found that NOAA researchers did not manipulate data, as has been widely claimed by climate change skeptics. The researchers involved also properly adhered to the agency's data review policies, the report concluded.

Article...

Full OIG report (PDF)

(Of course, this won't matter a bit to those convinced by Glenn Beck or Anthony Watts that there was trickery and deception involved. To paraphrase an old saying, you can lead horses to water, but you can't make them drink it when they'd rather quench their thirst with "Fair and Balanced" Kool-Aid.)
Quoting Floodman:


You're kinda young, aren't you?


Yea I wasnt around in the 70s
My parents told me about it Floodman
Well I am sure they will apologize and issue a retraction.
Nice looking temperature map, from -10s below zero to 90s

Quoting RitaEvac:
My parents told me about it Floodman


And what was it they told you?
Quoting RitaEvac:
lol, we'd be dead where we stand


Well, not quite, but certainly in a serious rut.

Doubling the price of oil doesn't quite double the price of gasoline at the pump, because the cost of refining and things don't necessarily double.

That being said, $6 per gallon gasoline will likely make it so bad that it won't be economically worth it to own an automobile for the lower 40% or so of Americans.

People will be REQUIRED to car-pool (somehow) and split the cost of gasoline, but the problem with this is finding people who live in the same area and work in the same area, else fuel costs from driving to pick one another up will out weight the savings.

We SERIOUSLY need to figure out a way to change our economic model to fit the obvious future situation regarding oil.

The other night, I was out at town watching all the people driving by in automobiles, and thinking, "My God, how is anything going to work when the price of gasoline doubles or triples again?"



On the other hand, it might actually be a deliverance, because how much more money would you have if you didn't spend so much on auto bill, auto insurance, and fuel and maintenance costs? You'd have 20%, 25%, even 30% more money at the end of the year, well, assuming you could live in walking or biking distance of work...
Quoting Floodman:


And what was it they told you?


They waited in line to get gas for an hour or so
Yer killin' me, Jerry....


;)


Quoting RecordSeason:


Well, not quite, but certainly in a serious rut.

Doubling the price of oil doesn't quite double the price of gasoline at the pump, because the cost of refining and things don't necessarily double.

That being said, $6 per gallon gasoline will likely make it so bad that it won't be economically worth it to own an automobile for the lower 40% or so of Americans.

People will be REQUIRED to car-pool (somehow) and split the cost of gasoline, but the problem with this is finding people who live in the same area and work in the same area, else fuel costs from driving to pick one another up will out weight the savings.

We SERIOUSLY need to figure out a way to change our economic model to fit the obvious future situation regarding oil.

The other night, I was out at town watching all the people driving by in automobiles, and thinking, "My God, how is anything going to work when the price of gasoline doubles or triples again?"



On the other hand, it might actually be a deliverance, because how much more money would you have if you didn't spend so much on auto bill, auto insurance, and fuel and maintenance costs? You'd have 20%, 25%, even 30% more money at the end of the year, well, assuming you could live in walking or biking distance of work...


Just remember in most states the taxes on a gallon of gas is over $.50.
Floodman I'm going for the day, out.
One thing they could do is put "charge meters" at major centers of employment and parking garages.

These would allow electric cars to be plugged in, and would have a meter like a gas pump, which would record how much energy is needed to charge the battery, and you pay with a credit card or check card. This would be charging while you are at work I guess.

This would have the effect of doubling the range of an electric vehicle for employment purposes.


There are still lots of problems with this. Namely it is unreliable and can leave you stranded in emergencies. i.e. you got to work and just got a call that your kid is sick at school, now you're screwed because your battery hasn't had time to charge.
The convertible is rather enjoyable...finally. And it is rather windy with lots of warm and moist heading up to meet that front.

Public Information Statement as of 4:44 PM CST on February 24, 2011

...Multiple record high temperatures set today...

Here is a summary of the record high temperatures set
today...Thursday February 24 2011.

New Orleans International Airport set a record high today of 83
degrees which broke the old record of 81 set in 1982.

Slidell Airport set a record high today of 81 degrees which broke
the old record of 74 set in 2000.

Baton Rouge Airport set a record high today of 83 degrees which
broke the old record of 82 in 1944.

McComb Airport set a record high today of 81 degrees which broke
the old record of 80 set in 1980.

New Orleans Lakefront Airport set a record high today of 84
degrees which broke the old record of 81 in 2001.

Pascagoula set a record high today of 77 degrees which broke the
old record of 73 in 2003.

Gulfport set a record high today of 75 degrees which broke the old
record of 70 in 2001.

As a reminder...the length of record is rather short at
Slidell...Pascagoula and at Gulfport.
A few more wind reports too.

Thats in the area of one of the tornado warnings.

So not just the odd lightening striking the house down scenic Butt road this time either Atmo.
Quoting Floodman:


You're kinda young, aren't you?


Yo, Flood! I remember when gasoline was 20 cents a gallon. They wiped your windshield, checked your oil and tire pressure and gave away sets of glasses. (And people were nice to each other) Guess things have changed a lot.
Not surprisingly, severe wind reports showing up at SPC. Hot springs to Shreveport/Texarkana area.



Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Flood! I remember when gasoline was 20 cents a gallon. They wiped your windshield, checked your oil and tire pressure and gave away sets of glasses. (And people were nice to each other) Guess things have changed a lot.


I used to be the guy doing all that stuff. It was my second job.
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Flood! I remember when gasoline was 20 cents a gallon. They wiped your windshield, checked your oil and tire pressure and gave away sets of glasses. (And people were nice to each other) Guess things have changed a lot.

Rudeness was so rare that when some guy was nasty to me the next time he came in for gas my boss went out and chewed him out and told him he'd better not hear of it again. I think I was making a buck ten a hour back then.
I remember my first Model T. My dad gave it to me as a gift when I changed my first work check. It was fun cranking that model. I was proud because it could produce 20 HP and reach 40-45 mph and gave me 18 miles per gallon. Not only that, the engine was capable of running on petrol, kerosene, or ethanol. But ethanol was prohibited....

My grandpa is still running around with his original model that he keeps, in the island of Antigua.. : )
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Flood! I remember when gasoline was 20 cents a gallon. They wiped your windshield, checked your oil and tire pressure and gave away sets of glasses. (And people were nice to each other) Guess things have changed a lot.


Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You remember when gasoline was still dinosaurs!!!!
*snork!*

Quoting presslord:


Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You remember when gasoline was still dinosaurs!!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



About time u showed up!
Those GOM waters will be warming up quite nicley this year with warmth returning to the south,and staying above average in some cases,so by June those gulf waters should be warm,and ready to "help" produce which in anyway isn't good.Also that increases tornado activity.And the spring forecast from WSI is bogus.I think we'll see a warm spring.CYL.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


About time u showed up!
ya i have been lurking guess you could say stealth mode
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya i have been lurking guess you could say stealth mode


whatcha think....worst going north of I-20?
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Uh, Neophyte,
If you think there is nothing to the claim that fracking is causing serious environmental and health issues then you're seriously deluded or a corporate shill. Just because your one family farm has no issues means zilch. Talk about a parody...your last post was a great one!
Going back to pissed off mode


:-)

Aren't you environmentalist types the angry ones. Everyone who disagrees with you is stupid, ignorant and uninformed.
2349 PORTAGEVILLE NEW MADRID MO 3643 8970 TORNADO REPORTED NEAR PORTAGEVILLE. VEHICLES BLOWN OFF INTERSTATE 55 FROM PORTAGEVILLE NORTH TO MARSTON.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


whatcha think....worst going north of I-20?
lower half of line is collapsing as a stronger line forms in front of it heads up eyes wide open
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lower half of line is collapsing as a stronger line forms in front of it heads up eyes wide open


Yep....see that now...dang! Thanks
Quoting twincomanche:


I used to be the guy doing all that stuff. It was my second job.


Uniform and all???
Hey presslord and floodman... Hope all is well in your neck of the woods!

Portlight gonna send supplies to Libya once the bloodshed stops? I know it isn't a weather catastrophe, but it still is a catastrophe.
Oh yeah,and for anyone visiting D.C we have one an award for the most rudest drivers.Way to go D.C(rolls eyes).So we even beat Los angelas,and New York city.
Gro.... why, you want to borrow it?

;)
Quoting presslord:


Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You remember when gasoline was still dinosaurs!!!!


Where do you think they got the idea for Fred Flintstone? :P
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh yeah,and for anyone visiting D.C we have one an award for the most rudest drivers.Way to go D.C(rolls eyes).So we even beat Los angelas,and New York city.
Damn won.
AMY!!!! Still got your fork? You may need it soon...
Dak.... no kidding....

;)
washintonian - I am surprised Miami isn't number one on that list...
Quoting NRAamy:
Gro.... why, you want to borrow it?

;)


Already have one, thank you. (How's Amy tonight?)
Quoting Grothar:


Uniform and all???

"As you travel ask us." Yep. I was like the Texaco man man except for Standard....more like the Standard boy.
Too many clouds to see the launch from the south in Melbourne.


TRMM hurricane page hasn't updated in near a month though seen a few product data in the news to know it's not down.. today a failed test in the Indian ocean. Hope it's fixed soon.


Quoting weatherneophyte:


:-)

Aren't you environmentalist types the angry ones. Everyone who disagrees with you is stupid, ignorant and uninformed.


I think the angry ones are the ones that can light their tap water a fire..
Quoting Dakster:
Hey presslord and floodman... Hope all is well in your neck of the woods!

Portlight gonna send supplies to Libya once the bloodshed stops? I know it isn't a weather catastrophe, but it still is a catastrophe.


ya never know what may come up...we sent a ton of medical equipment into Iraq after the US invasion...someday I may tell the story of the two CIA buffoons who showed up at my office one day as the result of that project...it was pretty comical...
Gro.... I'm hungry.... could go for another Cuban pork sandwich from Miami...darn it....

Cool Presslord...

TX for the update...
This event is definitely a lot less extreme due to what the winter has already done to the south, keeping the Gulf of Mexico held down to a low roar. The inflow out of the gulf is pretty cold, with all north gulf stations south of LA reporting temperatures under 70F. This could have been a lot worse if the gulf were as warm as it is supposed to be in a La Nina winter.



Quoting Dakster:
washintonian - I am surprised Miami isn't number one on that list...


How about West Palm Beach? We have a lot of JA's for drivers up here.
Quoting Skyepony:
Too many clouds to see the launch from the south in Melbourne.


TRMM hurricane page hasn't updated in near a month though seen a few product data in the news to know it's not down.. today a failed test in the Indian ocean. Hope it's fixed soon.




I think the angry ones are the ones that can light their tap water a fire..


There were people lighting their tap water long before fracking.
Quoting Dakster:
Cool Presslord...

TX for the update...
Your not welcomed...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Your not welcomed...


Huh?
Twas a fine day here,BC.Canadian wu friends arrived, watched the Launch.

Yakked and shared a few, er,..refreshments

O yeah, Parade tomorrow night.



Quoting Skyepony:
Too many clouds to see the launch from the south in Melbourne.


TRMM hurricane page hasn't updated in near a month though seen a few product data in the news to know it's not down.. today a failed test in the Indian ocean. Hope it's fixed soon.




I think the angry ones are the ones that can light their tap water a fire..

I was able to see about one degree of the shuttle's launch trajectory between two layers of clouds. Bummer. I will definitely drive up for each of the last two...
Greeetings all.
An active Tropical Wave has just about completed it's passage through here during the past week.
Heavy rains with some areas flooded and minor landslides of mountain roads.
My cisterns are still overflowing, first time in 23 years so late in Feb.

Was in the Mountains yesterday and today. Had no guage so I put a straight-sided aluminum mug out in the rain yesterday at about 2 pm.
This morning at 7:30 it was overflowing. How long for, I dont know.
The inside depth of the mug is 4" !
I would guess that at least a foot of rain fell up there this week.

Looks like we will get some sunshine for the next week and beyond though....
A soaker eh,pottery?
Quoting pottery:
Greeetings all.
An active Tropical Wave has just about completed it's passage through here during the past week.
Heavy rains with some areas flooded and minor landslides of mountain roads.
My cisterns are still overflowing, first time in 23 years so late in Feb.

Was in the Mountains yesterday and today. Had no guage so I put a straight-sided aluminum mug out in the rain yesterday at about 2 pm.
This morning at 7:30 it was overflowing. How long for, I dont know.
The inside depth of the mug is 4" !
I would guess that at least a foot of rain fell up there this week.

Looks like we will get some sunshine for the next week and beyond though....


mugs are for ale...not rainwater...you are fined $100.00
Quoting twincomanche:


There were people lighting their tap water long before fracking.

Well, with that single profound comment, you've proven conclusively that fracking is safe for one and all. In fact, it's probably not just safe, but actually good for the environment!

Thank you for setting us straight, twinc!

:-\
Quoting presslord:


Huh?
Um sarcastic.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, with that single profound comment, you've proven conclusively that fracking is safe for one and all. In fact, it's probably not just safe, but actually good for the environment!

Thank you for setting us straight, twinc!

:-\


You are soooo strange. I didn't say that at all. You really need help in interpreting the English language.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Those GOM waters will be warming up quite nicley this year with warmth returning to the south,and staying above average in some cases,so by June those gulf waters should be warm,and ready to "help" produce which in anyway isn't good.Also that increases tornado activity.And the spring forecast from WSI is bogus.I think we'll see a warm spring.CYL.


Whether or not we see a warmer than average spring isn't really relevant -- once summer actually gets here, temperatures naturally warm. And, even during the coldest of years, there is fuel more than sufficient to power dangerous hurricanes.
Quoting Patrap:
A soaker eh,pottery?

Yeah, big time!
It's supposed to be dry season too....
Well a warmer Planet will support a Juicier Mass of well, wet the Good Dr. says.

Trust Him,,he's a Doctor.

Quoting presslord:


mugs are for ale...not rainwater...you are fined $100.00

Oooops--
did'nt know you were snooping around!
But you are quite right.
GUILTY.

TT$100 is about US$ 15.(I assume the fine is in TT$ you see)
I cant even afford that right now.LOL
I'm going to have to do the time.....
So as of now, I am officially On The Run>>>>>>>>>>>>
Quoting pottery:

Oooops--
did'nt know you were snooping around!
But you are quite right.
GUILTY.

TT$100 is about US$ 15.(I assume the fine is in TT$ you see)
I cant even afford that right now.LOL
I'm going to have to do the time.....
So as of now, I am officially On The Run>>>>>>>>>>>> ;


the fine will be suspended...assuming no future transgressions...
presslord does have a uncanny sense of timing.

But his dress choice's need "vast" improvement.

Use caution here
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, with that single profound comment, you've proven conclusively that fracking is safe for one and all. In fact, it's probably not just safe, but actually good for the environment!

Thank you for setting us straight, twinc!

:-\


I am in my sixties and I have people I know who grew up in Indiana and in western Oklahoma who could light up their tap water. That's all I was say, not some wacko interpretation that I approved of fracking or thought it was safe or any other of your strange conclusions.
Quoting Patrap:
Well a warmer Planet will support a Juicier Mass of well, wet the Good Dr. says.

Trust Him,,he's a Doctor.


True...
Not liking the look of the map above, showing those areas of potential Drought though.
In some pretty "delicate" areas as well..

going into some interesting times, thinks I.
Fricking Fracking is frightful to some.
Quoting presslord:


the fine will be suspended...assuming no future transgressions...

Thank you kind Sir.
I will dance at your funeral (that does not sound right, somehow... but know that I am pleased!)
Quoting Patrap:
presslord does have a uncanny sense of timing.

But his dress choice's need "vast" improvement.

Use caution here


THAT....is a fine looking specimen of American womanhood.....
"U betcha",

LOL
Somehow I kinda picture that funeral with a Viking Boat,,Fire, Libations,breast plates,dancing,,Grothar reciting something in a Narrative Nordic prose.

Almost movie Like.

Epic.

Quoting Patrap:
Somehow I kinda picture that funeral with a VViking Boat,,Fire, Libations,dancing,,Grothar reciting something in a Narrative Nordic prose.

Almost movie Like.

Epic.



gonna have to have a priest there...preferably Monsignor or higher...and some nuns.......there need to be some nuns...
Quoting Patrap:
presslord does have a uncanny sense of timing.

But his dress choice's need "vast" improvement.

Use caution here

I clicked on that link, and I am sure I heard a Transformer blow-up just down the road.
You sure know how to scare the unsuspecting, Pat!
I will probably have nightmares, and have to go back to the Hypnotic Lady who bannished that apparition from my memory before.
Now, it's back....
I added "breast plate " for some reason.

But then again itsa been a long day.

A good un.

Tomorrow I can yell and cuzz Dr's. in da flesh.

Schweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet, lil things keep ya blood fresh.
Quoting Patrap:
Fricking Fracking is frightful to some.


Everything is frightening to some on here. This is one of the few places that several members truly believe in the black helicopters.
Indeed pott,itsa real wu link,thus the lack of a prompt.

Im getting this blogging thing down me tinks.

Oh,,and the Superdome outside lights dimmed a tad too.
Quoting Patrap:
Somehow I kinda picture that funeral with a Viking Boat,,Fire, Libations,breast plates,dancing,,Grothar reciting something in a Narrative Nordic prose.

Almost movie Like.

Epic.


Sounds real Ghastly.... Tussen Horrors!
A Late-nite Special ?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Whether or not we see a warmer than average spring isn't really relevant -- once summer actually gets here, temperatures naturally warm. And, even during the coldest of years, there is fuel more than sufficient to power dangerous hurricanes.
It always takes that one.The west pacific was a perfect exsample of that.Magi was the really bad storm of the season.
The Rocky Wu-Horror Picture Show.

Hey!! You two!!! I'm right here!! Takin' notes, too...
Quoting twincomanche:


Everything is frightening to some on here. This is one of the few places that several members truly believe in the black helicopters.

It's not black helicopters I worry about; it's the red, white, and blue ones with the Fox logo on the side. ;-)
Quoting presslord:


gonna have to have a priest there...preferably Monsignor or higher...and some nuns.......there need to be some nuns...

It's the 'admirers' that are going to hard to find.
Nuns in breastplates would be cool though.
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's not black helicopters I worry about; it's the red, whit, and blue with the Fox logo on the side.


I understand.
O-tay,..I gotta get my Beck DVR recorded replay in and a cocktail.

Before the Daily Show anyway.

ACK!!!

Quoting pottery:

It's the 'admirers' that are going to hard to find.
Nuns in breastplates would be cool though.


You just narrowed down my Mardi Gras Day costume for me pottery.

Thanks a million.
Quoting pottery:

It's the 'admirers' that are going to hard to find.
Nuns in breastplates would be cool though.


OK...using the words 'nuns' and 'breasts' in the same phrase is really throwin' me off...having really disturbing visuals of Sister Sadistica from my youth....
Quoting Levi32:
This event is definitely a lot less extreme due to what the winter has already done to the south, keeping the Gulf of Mexico held down to a low roar. The inflow out of the gulf is pretty cold, with all north gulf stations south of LA reporting temperatures under 70F. This could have been a lot worse if the gulf were as warm as it is supposed to be in a La Nina winter.



Yet, at the surface down here, setting records:

(just sayin, the warmth is above and beyond that of the near-shore gulf SSTs)

Public Information Statement as of 4:44 PM CST on February 24, 2011

...Multiple record high temperatures set today...

Here is a summary of the record high temperatures set today...Thursday February 24 2011.

New Orleans International Airport set a record high today of 83 degrees which broke the old record of 81 set in 1982.

Slidell Airport set a record high today of 81 degrees which broke the old record of 74 set in 2000.

Baton Rouge Airport set a record high today of 83 degrees which broke the old record of 82 in 1944.

McComb Airport set a record high today of 81 degrees which broke the old record of 80 set in 1980.

New Orleans Lakefront Airport set a record high today of 84 degrees which broke the old record of 81 in 2001.

Pascagoula set a record high today of 77 degrees which broke the old record of 73 in 2003.

Gulfport set a record high today of 75 degrees which broke the old record of 70 in 2001.

As a reminder...the length of record is rather short at Slidell...Pascagoula and at Gulfport.
Quoting Patrap:
Indeed pott,itsa real wu link,thus the lack of a prompt.

Im getting this blogging thing down me tinks.

Oh,,and the Superdome outside lights dimmed a tad too.

Yeah, well be careful.
I think I read somewhere that you could be held liable for causing Cardiac Arrest in people for posting stuff like that.
There are probably 100 lawyers looking for you as we speak...
Quoting presslord:


OK...using the words 'nuns' and 'breasts' in the same phrase is really throwin' me off...having really disturbing visuals of Sister Sadistica from my youth....
Had a Sister Ruth-less, myself. (no, really)
Quoting Patrap:
O-tay,..I gotta get my Beck DVR recorded replay in and a cocktail.

Before the Daily Show anyway.

ACK!!!



Pat you should not listen to Glenn Back. It's not good for seniors to get their blood pressure up.
Quoting Patrap:


You just narrowed down my Mardi Gras Day costume for me pottery.

Thanks a million.

Send photos..
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, well be careful.
I think I read somewhere that you could be held liable for causing Cardiac Arrest in people for posting stuff like that.
There are probably 100 lawyers looking for you as we speak...


Well they better get in line,..its a long un.

I know a good counselor anyway.

Where is Kman ?
Quoting twincomanche:


Pat you should not listen to Glenn Back. It's not good for seniors to get their blood pressure up.


Your right,,thus the meds ,VA delivered by Fedex.

Humor sells good on the cable side,,where ya think I get my best stuff?
Quoting presslord:


OK...using the words 'nuns' and 'breasts' in the same phrase is really throwin' me off...having really disturbing visuals of Sister Sadistica from my youth....

Flashbacks are good sometimes.
Other times, well, they are pretty Grim.
Do you think that Sis. Sad. caused your current condition?
697
WFUS54 KMEG 250200
TORMEG
TNC017-079-250245-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0015.110225T0200Z-110225T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
800 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 845 PM CST

* AT 800 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ATWOOD...OR 6 MILES
EAST OF MILAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HUNTINGDON
AND MCKENZIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

.TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.



LAT...LON 3626 8809 3613 8821 3603 8821 3585 8865
3587 8869 3604 8869 3613 8856 3612 8853
3614 8853 3616 8850 3632 8810 3631 8809
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 242DEG 46KT 3598 8859




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Quoting pottery:

Flashbacks are good sometimes.
Other times, well, they are pretty Grim.
Do you think that Sis. Sad. caused your current condition?


years have therapy have helped......a little....
Quoting Patrap:


Well they better get in line,..its a long un.

I know a good counselor anyway.

Where is Kman ?

Think he is putting in more storm-shutters....
<
Quoting presslord:


years have therapy have helped......a little....

Wow! You must have been a real mess, if this is an improvement....
(you left yourself wide open there, Press...)
Quoting pottery:

Think he is putting in more storm-shutters....


I knew he was a wise man,..

Sperienced as to them Swirlie's.

Yes indeed.


2011 gonna bring the Powa somewhere.

All too soon.
The 18 UTC Little Rock Skew-T


The 0 UTC Jackson, MS (There was no Memphis launch, apparently):


That mid-level dry and inversion is someone's new best friend...
Looks bad there Pat.
Hope they have the Warnings....
It was hot atmo.

We drank indoors today.

Less Humidity inside.


Bad squall Line there pott.

Ooooofh!!
Quoting pottery:

Wow! You must have been a real mess, if this is an improvement....
(you left yourself wide open there, Press...)
Zing! award granted.
well here we go..

938
WFUS54 KJAN 250206
TORJAN
MSC051-053-163-250245-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0023.110225T0206Z-110225T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
806 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HOLMES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THORNTON...
SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 845 PM CST

* AT 806 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF
MIDNIGHT MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
THORNTON BY 825 PM CST...
COXBURG...TOLARVILLE...HOWARD AND TCHULA BY 830 PM CST...
BROZVILLE AND EBENEZER BY 835 PM CST...
FRANKLIN...MCMILLAN AND LEXINGTON BY 840 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.



LAT...LON 3321 8990 3291 8995 3289 9020 3292 9065
3304 9065 3310 9064 3313 9068 3314 9068
3319 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 269DEG 62KT 3302 9070



CME


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Evening all, hope everyone who saw enjoyed the shuttle launch earlier today.

Tell you, I thought it wasn't gonna happen. It was only 2-4 seconds before a scrub that they said go for launch and picked up the count again.
Quoting Patrap:


I knew he was a wise man,..

Sperienced as to them Swirlie's.

Yes indeed.


2011 gonna bthe Powa somewherering.

All too soon.

Not liking the above map showing wetter than average for our area in June-Aug either.
Take the Powa somewhere else....
Like out for the Fishies (if any are left out there....)
Quoting pottery:

Wow! You must have been a real mess, if this is an improvement....
(you left yourself wide open there, Press...)


yes.....indeed I did.....and...Hello, Atmo...
Quoting Patrap:
It was hot atmo.

We drank indoors today.

Less Humidity inside.
For Feb, it sure the heck was...I hope we haven't already had our spring. I despise summer...
Quoting presslord:


yes.....indeed I did.....and...Hello, Atmo...
Greeting and salutations, earthling.
Glad to see you back in here.
SPC tornado index likes this spot:

Quoting atmoaggie:
For Feb, it sure the heck was...I hope we haven't already had our spring. I despise summer...


Funny. I despise winter. :P
800. xcool


Quoting KoritheMan:


Funny. I despise winter. :P
Oh I'm with you on that one.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Funny. I despise winter. :P
I can put enough clothes on to be comfortable in winter...the inverse, in SE LA's summers, however, is not possible.

Fring is nice.
Winter is okay if it happens.
Summer is terrible.
(JMHO)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh I'm with you on that one.


Though to be fair, I only "like" summer because of hurricane tracking. The heat is equally unbearable.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh I'm with you on that one.


I'm from Florida, and I don't mind it. I can handle the winter up north. It's not too bad for me.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I can put enough clothes on to be comfortable in winter...the inverse, in SE LA's summers, however, is not possible.

Fring is nice.
Winter is okay.
Summer is terrible.
(JMHO)

I have never experienced Fring...

Quoting atmoaggie:
.the inverse, in SE LA's summers, however, is not possible.
Really? Really? This may be an awkward tale to tell, but I actually removed everything during Gustav while in the privacy of my room. I'd consider doing it again too in the event of another hurricane.
Quoting caneswatch:


I'm from Florida, and I don't mind it. I can handle the winter up north. It's not too bad for me.
Well lets try trading places then in the winter.On monday I almost froze my a** off standing their at the train station in both the afternoon,and the morning.The cold to me is the enemy unless of course it's air condition in the summer.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Though to be fair, I only "like" summer because of hurricane tracking. The is equally unbearable.
Yeah I like summer becuase of hurricane tracking to,but I also like it becuase I can withstand heat more than cold,and I do alot of activities in the summer.I'm a swim fool as well.Yes we do have indoor pools,but I like them outside better.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Really? Really? This may be an awkward tale to tell, but I actually removed everything during Gustav while in the privacy of my room. I'd consider doing it again too in the event of another hurricane.
Presslord. Could you pass along your therapist's phone number for a fellow WUvian?
(j/k)
Quoting twincomanche:


There were people lighting their tap water long before fracking.


And burning their rivers, too:

"...June 22, 1969: The Cuyahoga River in Northeastern Ohio catches fire. The river meanders through the Cuyahoga Valley for 100 miles and empties into Lake Erie. Moses Cleaveland, a surveyor, found the mouth of the river in 1796 and liked the area so much he settled there and established his eponymous town. For a very short time, the Cuyahoga River was the western border of the United States.

Industrial pollution wasn't new in the 20th century. The river had caught fire several times before. In 1868, 1883, 1887, 1912, 1922, 1936, 1941, 1948, 1952, and in 1969. The fire in 1952 did between $1 and $1.5 million in damages to boats and riverfront property. The 1969 fire was much smaller. It was under control and extinguished within 30 minutes and did only $50,000 in damages. It is thought the fire started from a passing train throwing sparks that set fire to an oil slick. It was rather a non-event in Cleveland at the time with only the local fire patrol acting to put out the fire.

Small stories were buried in the local papers. However, Time Magazine ignited national interest when they carried the story about the burning river. The same problem was found in the Baltimore Harbor, the Buffalo River in New York, and the Rouge River in Michigan. The Cuyahoga River fire was the one to make it into the August 1, 1969 Time article.

In 1963 the Cleveland area was already concerned with cleaning up the river when they instituted the Cuyahoga River Basin Water Quality Committee. In 1968 the city of Cleveland passed a $100 million bond with the money going to clean up the river. In that same year, the federal government spent $160 million for the entire nation. Businesses were encouraged to clean up their effluvium and many did so voluntarily or due to pressure from the community. The river was improving, as can be inferred from the differences in damages between the 1952 fire and this one. Efforts have continued to improve the beautiful river and in 1998 the Cuyahoga River was one of 14 listed as American Heritage Rivers. While the river is beautiful in spots, the EPA continues to monitor problem areas – areas of stagnation and with unsafe levels of pollution..."
Quoting pottery:

I have never experienced Fring...
Here, it is the 2 month season that commonly comes in between 2 10-month summers. A meld of fall/spring. Tulips popping up while trees are still holding orange and brown leaves... Mosquitoes flying slower...

Though, the last few Frings have been interrupted by a few weeks of winter. But this condition is the anomaly.

I'll drum up that IPCC plot of the Fring anomaly...brb.


...Multiple record high temperatures set today...

Here is a summary of the record high temperatures set today...Thursday February 24 2011.

New Orleans International Airport set a record high today of 83 degrees which broke the old record of 81 set in 1982.

Slidell Airport set a record high today of 81 degrees which broke the old record of 74 set in 2000.

Baton Rouge Airport set a record high today of 83 degrees which broke the old record of 82 in 1944.

McComb Airport set a record high today of 81 degrees which broke the old record of 80 set in 1980.

New Orleans Lakefront Airport set a record high today of 84 degrees which broke the old record of 81 in 2001.

Pascagoula set a record high today of 77 degrees which broke the old record of 73 in 2003.

Gulfport set a record high today of 75 degrees which broke the old record of 70 in 2001.

As a reminder...the length of record is rather short at Slidell...Pascagoula and at Gulfport.
815. afj3
img src="
Quoting afj3:
Link
">
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well lets try trading places then in the winter.On monday I almost froze my a** off standing their at the train station in both the afternoon,and the morning.The cold to me is the enemy unless of course it's air condition in the summer. Yeah I like summer becuase of hurricane tracking to,but I also like it becuase I can withstand heat more than cold,and I do alot of activities in the summer.I'm a swim fool as well.Yes we do have indoor pools,but I like them outside better.


Deal. I hate the summer. I pretty much do everything inside. Once the power is knocked out because of a hurricane, you're better off up north.
817. afj3
Quoting afj3:
img src="">

Sorry to flood the blog with my stupid postings. I can't get the radar to show up in my posts, just the link to the radar. I'm stupider than a troll!!!!!

Quoting atmoaggie:
Presslord. Could you pass along your therapist's phone number for a fellow WUvian?
(j/k)
:(

351
WGUS53 KPAH 250239
FFWPAH
ILC153-250630-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FF.W.0003.110225T0239Z-110225T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
839 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CST.

* AT 827 PM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED TWO
BRIDGES WASHED OUT AROUND OLMSTED. ONE IS THE WEST CEDAR STREET
BRIDGE IN OLMSTED...AND THE OTHER IS AT CENTER CHURCH ROAD NEAR
OLMSTED. COUNTY HIGHWAY OFFICIALS ARE ON SITE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
OLMSTED...
MOUNDS...
MOUND CITY...
KARNAK...

NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RUNOFF
FROM EARLIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...FURTHER AGGRAVATING ANY AREAS OF FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE AROUND ANY ROAD BARRIERS. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS
OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A
FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER
MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah I like summer becuase of hurricane tracking to,but I also like it becuase I can withstand heat more than cold,and I do alot of activities in the summer.I'm a swim fool as well.Yes we do have indoor pools,but I like them outside better.
Yeah, summer's are actually quite bearable if one has a swimming pool.
Its all good jason

Quoting hcubed:


And burning their rivers, too:

"...June 22, 1969: The Cuyahoga River in Northeastern Ohio catches fire. The river meanders through the Cuyahoga Valley for 100 miles and empties into Lake Erie. Moses Cleaveland, a surveyor, found the mouth of the river in 1796 and liked the area so much he settled there and established his eponymous town. For a very short time, the Cuyahoga River was the western border of the United States.

Industrial pollution wasn't new in the 20th century. The river had caught fire several times before. In 1868, 1883, 1887, 1912, 1922, 1936, 1941, 1948, 1952, and in 1969. The fire in 1952 did between $1 and $1.5 million in damages to boats and riverfront property. The 1969 fire was much smaller. It was under control and extinguished within 30 minutes and did only $50,000 in damages. It is thought the fire started from a passing train throwing sparks that set fire to an oil slick. It was rather a non-event in Cleveland at the time with only the local fire patrol acting to put out the fire.

Small stories were buried in the local papers. However, Time Magazine ignited national interest when they carried the story about the burning river. The same problem was found in the Baltimore Harbor, the Buffalo River in New York, and the Rouge River in Michigan. The Cuyahoga River fire was the one to make it into the August 1, 1969 Time article.

In 1963 the Cleveland area was already concerned with cleaning up the river when they instituted the Cuyahoga River Basin Water Quality Committee. In 1968 the city of Cleveland passed a $100 million bond with the money going to clean up the river. In that same year, the federal government spent $160 million for the entire nation. Businesses were encouraged to clean up their effluvium and many did so voluntarily or due to pressure from the community. The river was improving, as can be inferred from the differences in damages between the 1952 fire and this one. Efforts have continued to improve the beautiful river and in 1998 the Cuyahoga River was one of 14 listed as American Heritage Rivers. While the river is beautiful in spots, the EPA continues to monitor problem areas %u2013 areas of stagnation and with unsafe levels of pollution..."


This had zero to do with what I was talking about. Many years ago before fracking there was a mix of ground water and gas in many areas.
Quoting KoritheMan:

:(
C'mon, now. That was respectful needling...you're not really miffed about it, right?
Quoting KoritheMan:

Yeah, summer's are actually quite bearable if one has a swimming pool.
Not only a swimming pool...but money.
825. afj3

826. afj3
Quoting Patrap:
Its all good jason


How do you do that??? I am trying to post a link with a NWS radar loop so it is visible to all in the blog but it won't let me. Please excuse my technical ignorance but can you tell me how you posted a moving radar image>
Thanks!
Thats the wundergrond radar. Use View / Save This Image on the bottom of any wu radar.

Then take the single image and post in the comment box,preview it,then post using the Image button below .

No such things as ignorance my friend,,we all just need to share the info and we learn together here.

Sometimes the NWS radar dont stick well here.
AMEN!!!!!!!!!APOCALYPSE-INDUCED MISANTHROPIC ENVIROMENTAL NERVOUSNESS!
830. afj3
Quoting Patrap:
Thats the wundergrond radar. Use View / Save This Image on the bottom of any wu radar.

Then take the single image and post in the comment box,preview it,then post using the Image button below .

No such things as ignorance my friend,,we all just need to share the info and we learn together here.

Thank you so much!!!!
Quoting afj3:

Thank you so much!!!!


roger,dat.

anytime.
833. afj3
Hey Patrap can we play everyone is a star in the mind. By sly and the family stone.
835. afj3
Quoting Patrap:


roger,dat.

anytime.

I did it thanks to you! All I needed was some help and you came through. Thanks!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Narrow but intense line.
Old schul, schweeeeet



Everybody is a Star.wmv


Patrap or something like that.
Interesting feature Jason..



Quoting atmoaggie:
C'mon, now. That was respectful needling...you're not really miffed about it, right?
Hardly!
Tell it like it's is.
Got to watch my typing before I post.
Can someone tell me if that disturbance that is going to form in the NW Caribbean on June 22 is going to come my way?
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Can someone tell me if that disturbance that is going to form in the NW Caribbean on June 22 is going to come my way?
You should be more concerned about the June 16 th one....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Wow. that's quite a feature in the middle of that...

(re: post 832)
The Neville Bros.
Quoting pottery:
You should be more concerned about the June 16 th one....
Assuming it survives it's second trip through the Himalayas, that is.
Anyway before I head off tonight look at my avatar,and tell me have you seen this cat/bunny thing.Been on a look out for him....
almost Landfall.



Quoting atmoaggie:
Assuming it survives it's second trip through the Himalayas, that is.
True,
then it has to cross Antartica.
But it looks bad anyway.
If I was stmchsr, I would be frantic.
Freddie Mac posts $1.7B loss for Q4
By MARCY GORDON, AP Business Writer Marcy Gordon, Ap Business Writer Thu Feb 24, 7:05 pm ET

WASHINGTON - Government-controlled mortgage buyer Freddie Mac managed a narrower loss of $1.7 billion for the October-December quarter of last year. But it has asked for an additional $500 million in federal aid %u2014 up from the $100 million it sought in the previous quarter.

Freddie Mac also posted a $19.8 billion loss for all of 2010.

The government rescued Freddie Mac
and sibling company Fannie Mae in September 2008 to cover their losses on soured mortgage loans. It estimates the bailouts will cost taxpayers as much as $259 billion....

The current administration unveiled a plan earlier this month to slowly dissolve the two mortgage giants. The aim is to shrink the government's role in the mortgage system. The proposal would remake decades of federal policy aimed at getting Americans to buy homes and probably would make home loans more expensive.


Bought my home 2007 - 30 year loan for $200,000
Sold my home 2011 - $145,000
I need a rescue

rescue (rsky)
tr.v. rescued, rescuing, rescues
1. To set free, as from danger or imprisonment; save. See Synonyms at save1.
Quoting pottery:
True,
then it has to cross Antartica.
But it looks bad anyway.
If I was stmchsr, I would be frantic.
Good evening Pott..We are about to get blasted by severe thunderstorms here on the plateau. Wind is already blowin 20 gust 38. The weather dude says gusts to 70 when the line moves through and gusts over 50 from the low pressure system that spawned the squall line. Hope you are well...:)
LOL.

American Chemical Society National Meeting & Exposition, March 27-31, Anaheim, Calif.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-02/ac s-acs022411.php

My feeble little mind inserted "explosion" rather than "exposition". Chemists, explosion? Sure, that's possible.
moved out of range
New Zealand quake toll rises to 113 dead
By KRISTEN GELINEAU, Associated Press Kristen Gelineau, Associated Press 1 hr 6 mins ago

CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand - Relatives of people still missing three days after an earthquake shattered the New Zealand city of Christchurch arrived Friday from several countries to join an anxious vigil for news that looked increasingly likely to be grim.

The official death toll continued to climb, to 113, and officials said rescue teams had pulled nothing but bodies from the rubble of collapsed buildings for 48 hours. Foreign Minister Murray McCully said the government was preparing to give family members from several countries "the worst type of news."
Just some wind damage around my area as the line passed thru , no tornadoes. Did get some needed rain. All in all, everything ok. Hope others fair as well.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Just some wind damage around my area as the line passed thru , no tornadoes. Did get some needed rain. All in all, everything ok. Hope others fair as well.
Line just past through the western plateau. Moved very fast. One gust to 65 mph.
0425 3 SSW LEBANON WILSON TN 3617 8634 WILSON COUNTY EMA REPORTS NUMEROUS INJURIES POSSIBLE AT BRIDGESTONE WAREHOUSE. (OHX)

I think thats just east of Nashville.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-125E
12:58 PM WST February 25 2011
=====================================

At 11:00am WST a developing tropical low [18U], 1001 hPa, was located near 13.7S 125.5E, about 140km west northwest of Kalumburu, moving west southwest. It is likely that the low will move towards the southwest during the next three days and deepen as it moves into a more favourable environment. On Saturday the low is expected to be in the Western Region. The low may form into a tropical cyclone on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Advices [IDW24100] will be issued for this low by Thursday evening. Please refer to the latest Advice for further details.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: High
Monday: High
251
WFUS54 KHUN 250547
TORHUN
ALC071-089-095-250615-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0008.110225T0547Z-110225T0615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
NORTH CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CST

* AT 1144 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OWENS
CROSSROADS...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
LIM ROCK.
LARKINSVILLE.
SCOTTSBORO.
MARTINTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE COVER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.



LAT...LON 3486 8587 3460 8591 3450 8647 3476 8645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0547Z 256DEG 53KT 3466 8637


SL


CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab TN Page Main Text Page

Quoting hydrus:
Line just past through the western plateau. Moved very fast. One gust to 65 mph.


Trade??

Summary

Northeasterly winds of 70 km/h will develop over the Southern Gulf Islands and sections of Greater Victoria this evening. Northerly winds of 70 km/h with gusts to 90 over Howe Sound will persist through this evening. This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Details

A strong Arctic ridge of high pressure over the interior of British Columbia is driving cold air and strong winds through valleys and inlets of the coast. Windchill values of minus 20 to minus 25 are expected tonight. Through Howe Sound windchill values are not quite as cold however very strong outflow winds of 70 km/h with gusts to 90 will persist through this evening. Further south, outflow winds from the Fraser Valley will strengthen this evening as they cross towards the Southern Gulf Islands and sections of Greater Victoria near Haro strait. Northeast winds of 70 km/h with gusts to 90 will begin to abate in these regions by Friday morning as the ridge weakens.
437
WFUS54 KHUN 250556
TORHUN
ALC071-TNC051-250630-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0009.110225T0556Z-110225T0630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CST

* AT 1153 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
ESTILLFORK MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
ANDERSON.
RUSSELL CAVE NATIONAL MONUMENT.
LONG ISLAND.
LONG ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE COVER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.



LAT...LON 3486 8620 3507 8626 3516 8587 3500 8586
3500 8561 3499 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 253DEG 57KT 3498 8611


SL


CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 18U
4:00 PM WST February 25 2011
========================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 14.0S 126.0E, or about 75 km west northwest of Kalumburu and 445 km northeast of Derby has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The low is reported as moving slowly southwest.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday as it moves southwest close to the west Kimberley coast. Gales are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop on Sunday between Kalumburu and Wallal.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Wallal.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Low 18U will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh yeah,and for anyone visiting D.C we have one an award for the most rudest drivers.Way to go D.C(rolls eyes).So we even beat Los angelas,and New York city.


I totally agree. Driving in NY was crazy but fair. Driving in DC is cutthroat.
china is in better position to handle of potential disaster of a food shortage than it would of been because of their 2 children per couple quota set about 2 decades ago. but you really dont know for sure. one the those third kids could of changed the world and solved our problems i dont like their system
Good Morning.
The remnants of an active T Wave is still giving us un-seasonal rain.
Showers overnight and this morning.
The trees still cannot decide if to drop their leaves, flower, or what.
Strange weather.
It's hard to believe, after all the big snows around this area all winter long, that this report below gives us here in Muncie our biggest snow event of the season. Even sadder, it will all be gone by Monday.

000
NWUS53 KIND 251250
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
750 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 AM SNOW 1 E MUNCIE 40.20N 85.37W
02/25/2011 E6.0 INCH DELAWARE IN PUBLIC

BLOWING AND DRIFTING. 14 INCH SNOW DRIFTS.

3 Amish kids swept to deaths in swollen creek
Fourth child still missing; mother was trying to cross in horse-drawn buggy



MAYFIELD, Ky. — The bodies of three Amish children were found early Friday after their horse-drawn buggy overturned in a creek swollen by heavy rains in southwestern Kentucky. A fourth child was still missing.

A mother and her six children were trying to cross the creek on a roadway Thursday when the accident happened.

The woman and two of her children escaped but three girls and a boy were swept away.NBC station WSMV-TV reported that they were aged 11, 5, 8 and 6 months old.

One of the bodies was found at around 12:30 a.m. on Friday, Graves County Sheriff Dewayne Redmon told NBC's TODAY. Two siblings were discovered about 30 minutes later.

He said authorities were continuing to look for the other child — an 11-year-old girl.

"We're hoping that she ... was maybe able to cling onto something," Redmon told TODAY.

Around 75 people were searching the creek area on foot with flashlights, calling out for the children, NBC station WPSD-TV reported.

Redmon said that the search was hampered by high water and "very muddy" conditions.

The accident happened as severe storms pummeled the nation's midsection and southeast , leaving behind a trail of downed trees and splintered power lines.

Torrential rains drenched parts of Kentucky and other states Thursday night. The rural area is about 25 miles south of Paducah.
that one was almost 83 miles deep, keeper. Thank goodness.
Complete Update





878. Jax82
Quoting Patrap:


...Multiple record high temperatures set today...

Here is a summary of the record high temperatures set today...Thursday February 24 2011.

New Orleans International Airport set a record high today of 83 degrees which broke the old record of 81 set in 1982.

Slidell Airport set a record high today of 81 degrees which broke the old record of 74 set in 2000.

Baton Rouge Airport set a record high today of 83 degrees which broke the old record of 82 in 1944.

McComb Airport set a record high today of 81 degrees which broke the old record of 80 set in 1980.

New Orleans Lakefront Airport set a record high today of 84 degrees which broke the old record of 81 in 2001.

Pascagoula set a record high today of 77 degrees which broke the old record of 73 in 2003.

Gulfport set a record high today of 75 degrees which broke the old record of 70 in 2001.

As a reminder...the length of record is rather short at Slidell...Pascagoula and at Gulfport.


Yeah, well, I think something besides the "record" is broken.

Breaking record highs by 3f, 4f, 5f and even 7f at locations adjacent to a Lake Ponchartrain and Gulf of Mexico, which are an average of 3.6f BELOW normal, never mind record highs, WITH an on-shore flow, just does not seem consistent with the laws of thermodynamics.

I'm not denying yesterday was hot, but come on. Breaking a 10 year old record high by 7f, adjacent to a 600 trillion gallon body of water that is 3.6f below averages is indicative of some sort of failure in instrumentation.
Four Amish children die in
Kentucky flooding
Link
-31F in Cut Bank Montanna
Southern Calif. Weather update:

Dark, cloudy and cold, with SQUAWK later on this afternoon....
Brrr.

31 below that is, not SQUAWK.

Magnitude
3.6
Date-Time
Friday, February 25, 2011 at 09:49:01 UTC
Friday, February 25, 2011 at 03:49:01 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
35.277°N, 92.374°W
Depth
6 km (3.7 miles)
Region
ARKANSAS
Distances
5 km (3 miles) NNE (15°) from Greenbrier, AR
6 km (4 miles) SE (134°) from Twin Groves, AR
6 km (4 miles) SW (214°) from Guy, AR
22 km (14 miles) NNE (19°) from Conway, AR
60 km (38 miles) N (356°) from Little Rock, AR
418 km (260 miles) SSW (208°) from St. Louis, MO
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 0.5 km (0.3 miles); depth +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles)
Parameters
NST= 17, Nph= 26, Dmin=2 km, Rmss=0.21 sec, Gp= 54°,
M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=B
Source
Cooperative New Madrid Seismic Network
Event ID
nm022511a
Luckily that air isn't coming south, looks now like any frigid outbreak coming south is over for the winter as the jet stream is zonal well into March
John Wayne-Orange County, California

54 °F
Mostly Cloudy
hey dashboard cowman..... where is Lyttelton?
Quoting NRAamy:
hey dashboard cowman..... where is Lyttelton?


The city at the epicenter of the NZ earthquake.
Quoting NRAamy:
John Wayne-Orange County, California

54 %uFFFDF
Mostly Cloudy


sick, its 79 and sunny here at my house in Central Florida!


This is gonna be weird year, I went hunting yesterday for the first time since January. I ran into stuff Ive never seen before this early, I was walking through a swamp in my waders and I cam across a litter of baby gators swimming around, they started doing that classic call for help for their momma which was a little scary even though I had a 12 gauge haha. I also came across several pairs of glowing eyes coming from adult gators when it got dark. Walking through swampy land with gators in "spring" is a little scary even if you are heavily armed.

There were also thousands of frogs croaking, huge 3 inch wolf and grass spiders crawling everywhere.

Hunting season is about over, but still. This is the earliest start to spring we have have ever had in my 15 years living in Florida!

What is weird is gators don't even start their mating season normally till mid March. Baby gators normally are not seen till mid April, because the eggs take a few weeks to hatch.

What that means is that gators were already mating in January, the mothers laid eggs around the beginning of this month, and now there are babies already!



Unfortunately my hunting trip wasn't successful, me nor my friend saw any hogs, even though another friend got himself a hog on monday and there were tons of them in the same spot I went to on monday, go figure.

Hunting is always an adventure, even if you don't get anything. Hunting is hard in Florida, I haven't gotten big game this entire season. Just a bad season for me in general.

I'm happy to see spring has come so early! I love this weather, and so does the wild life!
couldn't rising food price also be due in part to the economic policies of the federal reserve and world bankers? Quantative Easing anyone? Oh but there is no inflation here in the US.
Dr. Master's has started a new blog.