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Driest March in Texas history fueling huge fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:59 PM GMT on April 12, 2011

Windy, dry and unstable weather conditions are expected for eastern Colorado and New Mexico, eastward to western Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas today--perfect weather for fires. Massive fires continue to rage out of control over large areas of Texas today. Over the past week, the fires scorched hundreds of square miles of rural Texas, destroyed dozens of homes, and sent one fire fighter to the hospital in critical condition. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, 898,000 acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year. This is the 3rd highest burned acreage of the past decade; the record was set in 2006, when a remarkable 2 million acres had burned by April 12.


Figure 1. The Rock House Fire was burning out of control when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite acquired this image on April 10, 2011. Red boxes mark the location of active fires, and brown, charred land shows the fire.s path. A thin plume of smoke streams northeast from the fire front. The burn scar shows that the fire burned around the town of Fort Davis. As of April 12, the National Interagency Fire Center reported that this fire was 80,000 acres and was 0% contained. MODIS also detected a fire immediately northeast of the town of Alpine, in Brewster County, Texas. This fire was 25,000 acres and 0% contained on April 12. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. The history of March drought conditions in Texas since 1895, as computed using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The PDSI factors in both precipitation and temperature to come up with a measure of drought severity. Values of the PDSI below -3 are classified as "extreme" drought, and below -4 is the highest classification of drought, "exceptional." This year's drought is the 16th worst March drought in Texas history. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

This year's fires caused by heat, drought, and La Niña
When the remains of Hurricane Alex drenched Texas last June, the welcome rains helped fuel a luxurious growth of vegetation across much of Texas during the summer. However, a very cold and dry winter killed off much of that vegetation, leaving plenty of fuel for this spring's fires. With Texas now experiencing the two highest categories of drought, extreme and exceptional, over 60% of its area, conditions are ripe for a record fire season. The percent of the contiguous U.S. covered by extreme and exceptional drought has more than tripled since the beginning of the year, and was near 9% on April 5, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. An extreme drought is declared when major damage to crops or pasture occurs or widespread water shortages and restrictions. Much of the blame for the drought conditions can be given to the La Niña event occurring the Eastern Pacific. La Niña deflects the jet stream such that the prevailing storm track misses the Southern U.S., leading to dryer and warmer conditions than average during winter and spring. According to the National Climatic Data Center, March 2011 was the driest March and 17th warmest March in Texas since 1895. Temperatures averaged 2 - 6°F above average over most of the state, but over the western portion of the state, where the worst wildfires are burning, temperatures averaged between 6 - 10°F above average. Del Rio has reported only 0.31 inches of precipitation for October - March, the 2nd driest since 1906. Austin reported its 5th driest October - March since 1856, and San Antonio came in as the 12th driest October - March since 1871. Over the last 198 days, from September 26 - April 11, Midland, TX has had measurable precipitation on just five days. Midland's precipitation so far this year stands at just 0.11", compared to a normal of 1.70".


Figure 3. Drought map for April 7, 2011. Image credit: drought.gov.


Figure 4. Winter wheat production for 2010 was heavily concentrated in northern Texas, western Oklahoma, western Kansas, and eastern Colorado, areas strongly impacted by this year's drought. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Drought threatens the winter wheat crop
This spring's drought is heavily impacting the U.S. winter wheat crop, which is concentrated in much of the drought-stricken region (Figure 4.) Winter wheat, which is planted in the fall and harvested in June, accounts for 70% of all wheat plantings in the U.S. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations estimated in March that the 2011 U.S. wheat crop would be 56.6 million tons, 6% less than last year, and the smallest crop since 2007, thanks to the drought. The U.S. wheat crop represents about 8% of the world's total, so a significant reduction of the wheat crop in the U.S. due to a continuation of the spring drought could cause a several percent reduction in the world's wheat supply. Global food prices fell slightly in March, according to the FAO, but still remained among the highest levels since 1990. The drought in the winter wheat areas of the U.S. will create added pressure to this year's high global food prices.


Figure 5. The drought forecast for April, May, and June 2011, issued by NOAA on April 7, calls for drought to spread northwards into all of Kansas and most of Nebraska, and also westwards into most of Arizona and Colorado. Image credit: drought.gov.

A dry forecast
The drought in Texas is likely to get much worse and spread northwards and westwards over the coming months, and will probably rank as one of the top five droughts in Texas history by the time summer arrives. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows little or no precipitation for the drought region over the next week, with the next chance of significant rains coming April 19 - 20. The latest 1-month and 3-month outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center show above-average chances for warm and dry conditions over the drought region extending into summer. La Niña conditions are expected to wane and become neutral by June, but the influence of La Niña on the atmosphere will stay strong through June, keeping the preferred storm track north of Texas and causing below-average rains to the drought region. Real relief from the drought of 2011 will likely only occur when hurricane season starts to get going, bringing moisture-laden tropical disturbances or tropical cyclones to the Texas coast in June and July.

I'll have a new post Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters
Smoke-filled Sky over Jacksboro, TX
Smoke-filled Sky over Jacksboro, TX
Grassfires in Jack County, just seven miles southwest the town of Jacksboro, burned thousands of acres and claimed several homes. Humidity was only 12%, and winds were gusting out of the south at 30 MPH. 3-11-2011
Sunday afternoon
Sunday afternoon
Fires still burning,
Tuesday evening
Tuesday evening
Bent county fire still burning. About 4 miles east of town.
Got Dust ?
Got Dust ?
My wife's grandfather lived through the dust bowl . He called it the
Dust Bowl 2011
Dust Bowl 2011
Not fog or clouds or rain, just dirt blowing in from CO. Taken around 6:15 pm.

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.
HPC 5 Day Precipitation outlook. No relief whatsoever.

is this dr m posting?
Gap between rich and poor widened over four decades
By: David Sherfinski 03/19/11 8:05 PM
Examiner Staff Writer Follow Him @dsherfinski

The gap between what the rich and poor earn has been growing nationwide for four decades.

The lowest 10 percent of wage earners nationwide were making no more than $7.70 an hour in 1973. That grew by just 4.5 percent, to $8.05, by 2009, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a D.C.-based think tank that focuses on the economic condition of low-and middle-income Americans.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the economic spectrum, the top 5 percent of earners made at least $35.37 an hour in 1973 compared with $48.08 in 2009 -- an increase of 36 percent.

The numbers don't include earnings from stocks or dividends that can increase total income -- factors more likely to benefit the wealthy, further increasing the gap.

"This is a trend that's been going on nationally for a long time," said Elizabeth McNichol with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. "Until unemployment comes down ... we're going to see this pattern."

While productivity grew by 80 percent between 1979 and 2009, the hourly wage for the median worker grew by 10 percent -- and all of that growth occurred between 1996 and 2002, according to the EPI.

Michael Cassidy, president of the Commonwealth Institute for Fiscal Analysis, a Richmond-based think tank that focuses particularly on economic issues affecting low- and moderate-income people, said that such a trend played a part in the economic crisis that began in 2007.

"If folks aren't getting increased wages ... and we are providing them with looser credit and they are going into increased indebtedness to make ends meet, you see a lot of the root of many of the misplaced financial instruments people are using that impact the economy," he said.

dsherfinski@washingtonexaminer.com

Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://washingtonexaminer.com/local/virginia/2011/ 03/gap-between-rich-and-poor-widened-over-four-dec ades#ixzz1JJynaQsQ
Anyways. Looks like Brownsville is knocking on the door to 80 degree water temps, meanwhile the gulf stream off Florida's east coast as spiked up to 86 degrees in Melbourne points south to Miami.

4/11/2011
Atlantic



4/11/2011
Gulf

Last nights's magnitude6.2earthquake was epicentered
142miles(~229kilometres) at 191.3degrees(SSW) from FukushimaDaichi
51miles(~82kilometres) at 113.3degrees(ESE) from centralTokyo
This morning's magnitude6.0earthquake was epicentered
34miles(~55kilometres) at 212.3degrees(SSW) from FukushimaDaiichi
105miles(~167kilometres) at 31.2(NNE) from centralTokyo
Quoting Tazmanian:
is this dr m posting?
Yes, it tells who is posting at the top. Good morning all:)
Moisture run of da tropics...
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Anyways. Looks like Brownsville is knocking on the door to 80 degree water temps, meanwhile the gulf stream off Florida's east coast as spiked up to 86 degrees in Melbourne points south to Miami.

4/11/2011
Atlantic



4/11/2011
Gulf



I was just going to post this. I leave near the beach in Ft. Lauderdale, and I can not remember when the temperature was so warm this early.



Excellent post SunlinePR..
The daily comparison for April 11:

2009

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2010

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2011

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Regarding name-calling:

If you have to censor the word you are using to describe another blogger you are probably name-calling. Even if you think the name is accurate, it's still name-calling and it's against blog rules (e.g. - "do not engage in personal attacks")

We've got a new blog here - let's keep it civil.

Regarding fires:

Colorado's fire season has started early and, while things have quieted down for now, I anticipate a very active season.

We had over 30 wildfires in March. The average is just 3.

According to the map below, the mountainous western part of the state is in decent shape as far as moisture is concerned, which is great since that part of the state has an increased threat of wildfire due to large swaths of pine beetle kill. The Front Range foothills and plains, however, are hurting for moisture and I don't have to tell you how that affects our wildfire prospects.

Quoting Grothar:


I was just going to post this. I leave near the beach in Ft. Lauderdale, and I can not remember when the temperature was so warm this early.



Very impressive. If there was a tropical low over that area, it would probably develop...:)
With all the heat in the tropics located farther to the west this year and with the drought in the South, I think we all know what nature does to take care of those two problems. The U.S. streak of no major hurricane strike could come to an end this season. Hell, it SHOULD come to an end. Averages and information just point to hurricane strikes along the U.S. Coastline this season. Be prepared!
This is very impressive and appears to have spin to it...
Quoting Grothar:
Rainbow image . The other is precipitable water image..
Quoting hydrus:
Very impressive. If there was a tropical low over that area, it would probably develop...:)


Hey, hydr, you know that no self-respecting Floridian goes into the ocean before May, but I couldn't believe how warm it was.
Anyone have any sources or information on the analogs of number of tropical systems that travel through the gulf on a year to year basis? Greatly appreiciated!
Quoting hydrus:
Rainbow image . The other is precipitable water image..


This gets bigger everyday. Hope we get some of that moisture soon.

Here is the MODIS image for yesterday. You can see a large wildfire and smoke to the SE of the area Dr. Masters wrote about as well.



Aqua 1km True Color image for 4/11/11
Click here for a full size image
<
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Anyone have any sources or information on the analogs of number of tropical systems that travel through the gulf on a year to year basis? Greatly appreiciated!


Here is a link for you. Scroll down to the bottom and it shows average strikes for the season.

Link
looks like the line offshore from tpa is tapping into the LC ,firing up!!,maybe high winds up to 60mph and some hail as it approaches tampa area thru the I-4 corridor
Thanks DRM. We're on the edge of that exceptional drought and well into extreme here. It is pretty bad. The solution might not be any fun either.

Drought tightens its grip on Texas

SOUTHEAST TEXAS - The drought is tightening its grip on the state, and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality is warning it might have to step in.

The Commission is responsible for protecting water rights.

It issued a statement Monday, emphasizing if water use must be restricted, organizations that have had water rights the longest get priority over newer users.

That's good news to the Lower Neches Valley Authority. It's had water rights since 1913.

Last week, the LNVA issued a notice to customers urging conservation to help deal with the impact of the drought.

The LNVA Executive Director, Scott Hall, told KFDM News the area is at least 30 inches below normal rainfall.

The LNVA wants a voluntary reduction of about one third in non-essential water use. It's asking customers to cut back on watering lawns and washing cars.

Hall says the area needs about 15 inches of rain in a two week period to ease the drought.
Quoting Grothar:


Here is a link for you. Scroll down to the bottom and it shows average strikes for the season.

Link


Thank you. New Bookmark, to the thousands I already have. ha ha.

Any reasons why Okeechobee, Glades and Henry counties of Florida are represented?
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Thank you. New Bookmark, to the thousands I already have. ha ha.


Welcome! Can never have too many. In case an argument breaks out, you can just click on it and say, "I told you so"
Hmm... I wonder if there was a controlled burn in Weld County last night (top center of radar image, between Fort Collins and Sterling)?

Quoting ILwthrfan:


Thank you. New Bookmark, to the thousands I already have. ha ha.

Any reasons why Okeechobee, Glades and Henry counties of Florida are represented?


Yes, because in many late season storms, hurricanes have a tendency to come from the west. Although can can hit from the Gulf side at any time. Those areas, while not having a direct hit, have had some serious damage. If you look at the maps, you will see South Florida has been hit by many more storms than the rest of the Peninsula.
Quoting MrMixon:
Regarding name-calling:

If you have to censor the word you are using to describe another blogger you are probably name-calling. Even if you think the name is accurate, it's still name-calling and it's against blog rules (e.g. - "do not engage in personal attacks")

We've got a new blog here - let's keep it civil.

Regarding fires:

Colorado's fire season has started early and, while things have quieted down for now, I anticipate a very active season.

We had over 30 wildfires in March. The average is just 3.

According to the map below, the mountainous western part of the state is in decent shape as far as moisture is concerned, which is great since that part of the state has an increased threat of wildfire due to large swaths of pine beetle kill. The Front Range foothills and plains, however, are hurting for moisture and I don't have to tell you how that affects our wildfire prospects.



I wonder how many of the fires were human-induced and how many were natural. I live in Evergreen, and I agree we are in a drought situation, but the sheer number of fires might have more to do with idiots burning when they shouldn't be than the dry conditions.
Quoting Grothar:


Here is a link for you. Scroll down to the bottom and it shows average strikes for the season.

Link


They might have to re-write it, {the Linked Page,} a bit this year as its a month later starting than now.
All this heat stuff has been on the cards since early March this year.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, because in many late season storms, hurricanes have a tendency to come from the west. Although can can hit from the Gulf side at any time. Those areas, while not having a direct hit, have had some serious damage. If you look at the maps, you will see South Florida has been hit by many more storms than the rest of the Peninsula.


Ahh so those landlocked counties even though they are mostly swamp are taken into special consideration. Wouldn't that take away from landfall of the county it preceded? I mean it can't make landfall on those counties unless it travels through a coastline county?

Unless it developed over land within the county?

One thing is for sure, stay away from Monroe county. Holy Jesus. 15 storms in 109 years and its a third the size of Miami-Dade country. It's staggering that a Hurrican travels through those 2 counties once every 4 years.
Quoting RMuller:


I wonder how many of the fires were human-induced and how many were natural. I live in Evergreen, and I agree we are in a drought situation, but the sheer number of fires might have more to do with idiots burning when they shouldn't be than the dry conditions.


Ha! :)

Well, the number of idiots in Colorado might have gone up since last year, but I doubt it's gone up by 10x. I think the large number of fires has more to do with the timing of our precipitation more than anything else. Yes, we're behind on precipitation, but more importantly - our spring snows have been almost non-existent. The high peaks and Western Slope are in good shape, but snowpack in the foothills is pathetic for this time of year. We should've gotten at least one or two big spring snowfalls by now. I can't remember the last time we got more than 6" in a single storm... maybe sometime around New Years.
36. P451
The NAM is predicting a major 2 foot blizzard for SD/ND. GFS is predicting the same but for NE/SD through southern MN into central WI and the UP of Michigan. We're talking day 3 through 5 for timing.

37. P451
Quoting cat5hurricane:
HPC 5 Day Precipitation outlook. No relief whatsoever.



None through 14 days either. HPC has below normal precip firmly locked in for the region.
38. P451
Quoting hydrus:
Moisture run of da tropics...


SW Caribbean is the driest I think I've ever seen it on WV imagery. In fact in years time I don't think I've ever seen this map show less than purple on it's WV imagery - anywhere.



U of Hawaii Atlantic Tropical Imagery
See I knew that wouldn't last long, the NWS and the local weather were saying the cold front this weekend would be followed by a blast of much cooler and drier air with highs in the low 70's and lows near 50. Yeah. Right.

I don't even know why they bothered lol, its generally been above average and very warm since February. We aren't gonna suddenly get a strong cold front in late April! We never get blasts of cold air this late in the season anyway haha. Instead they upped the temperature forecast by 10 degrees back into the mid 80's behind the front.

Now they are saying moisture may rapidly surge in next week soon after the frontal passage, that and a lack of capping and sinking air like we had this week could support sea breeze storms. Not sure if we'll see that yet either, but I'd love to
Quoting P451:
The NAM is predicting a major 2 foot blizzard for SD/ND. GFS is predicting the same but for NE/SD through southern MN into central WI and the UP of Michigan. We're talking day 3 through 5 for timing.



Hmpf... it seems like everyone is getting snow but us this year.

If folks in South Dakota don't want this storm, I suggest they all stand on their western border and blow southwest...
41. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:
I have a sense that ...

we are -- oh, I can't say it -- we are...


Talk of the town on here soon will be how the Gulf is "due". Que the due in about 1.5 months.

Quoting DestinJeff:
I have a sense that ...

we are -- oh, I can't say it -- we are...


Talk of the town on here soon will be how the Gulf is "due". Que the due in about 1.5 months.


Hi DJ.
It's still too early to bring out 'the curve.'
Still in prom time planning stage though it's getting closer!
43. IKE

Large disturbance over Africa....
severe day 3
Couple lil swirls in the S.W.Gulf...
Quoting P451:


SW Caribbean is the driest I think I've ever seen it on WV imagery. In fact in years time I don't think I've ever seen this map show less than purple on it's WV imagery - anywhere.



U of Hawaii Atlantic Tropical Imagery



Water Vapor loop is deceiving. Although it is very dry aloft, the PWAT down there reflects that it isn't as dry as that map makes it look. In fact, although it is certainly dry there, the PWAT in the South Caribbean is still higher than much of Canada even though on water vapor satellite it appears more moist in Canada.

What that water vapor loop is really showing there in the Caribbean is that strong high pressure is in control with sinking air aloft, which won't lead to any rain.

However, if you want to measure atmospheric moisture accurately without being deceived. Use the Precipitable Water product. It is the sum of all available water vapor in a vertical column of the atmosphere if it is precipitated. That will tell you how moist the whole air mass really is.


Sometimes Ive seen the water vapor loop show what is deceivingly appearing to be dry air over Florida at times over Florida in the summer. While in reality there is deep tropical moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere around 2 inches allowing heavy storms to pop by afternoon.

Overall, dry air on the water vapor loop can represent and usually does represent an overall dry air mass. However not necessarily. Just keep that in mind.
49. IKE
~The Chart~

49 days....
12 hours...
14  minutes...
and it starts.....
Very wet and very dry in close proximity...
Quoting IKE:
~The Chart~

49 days....
12 hours...
14 minutes...
and it starts.....
Nah. .The GFS has a land-falling tropical storm 1236 hours out..:)
Plenty of moisteh out here...Some for Texas???
Quoting P451:


SW Caribbean is the driest I think I've ever seen it on WV imagery. In fact in years time I don't think I've ever seen this map show less than purple on it's WV imagery - anywhere.



U of Hawaii Atlantic Tropical Imagery



Water Vapor loop is deceiving. Although it is very dry aloft, the PWAT down there reflects that it isn't as dry as that map makes it look. In fact, although it is certainly dry there, the PWAT in the South Caribbean is still higher than much of Canada even though on water vapor satellite it appears more moist in Canada.

What that water vapor loop is really showing there in the Caribbean is that strong high pressure is in control with sinking air aloft, which won't lead to any rain.

However, if you want to measure atmospheric moisture accurately without being deceived. Use the Precipitable Water product. It is the sum of all available water vapor in a vertical column of the atmosphere if it is precipitated. That will tell you how moist the whole air mass really is.


Sometimes Ive seen the water vapor loop show what is deceivingly appearing to be dry air over Florida at times over Florida in the summer. While in reality there is deep tropical moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere around 2 inches allowing heavy storms to pop by afternoon.

Overall, dry air on the water vapor loop can represent and usually does represent an overall dry air mass. However not necessarily. Just keep that in mind.
Quoting hydrus:
Plenty of moisteh out here...Some for Texas???


Its not nearly as moist as it looks, PWAT is very low out there. The PWAT out west on mesoscale analysis is a desert-like dry level of 0.1 to 0.3 inches, that's as low as it gets behind frontal passages here in Florida.

Now you may see why I don't like using water vapor satellite to represent moisture, its not even close to being moist out west. Sometimes there can be way moisture in tropical areas than the water vapor loop shows as well.
Quoting DestinJeff:


WHAT? really? can you send the link?

Although that is so far out, it is likely to change 1236 times ... but still, it looks like it is GAME ON!

I know one thing for sure ... that sucker is headed more WEST than NORTH!
stop being so foolish will ya o by the way it shows a cat 5 in miami at 3663 hr mark
The highest moisture in the country right now is in Virginia, Maryland, and the eastern gulf/Florida.
Waaaayyyyy OT but...

this morning at JFK - imagine being on the small jet

Quoting PcolaDan:
Waaaayyyyy OT but...

this morning at JFK - imagine being on the small jet



Holy heck! I hope no one was injured...

If that small jet was loaded with passengers they're gonna have to steam clean or replace all the upholstery...

Quoting MrMixon:


Holy heck! I hope no one was injured...

If that small jet was loaded with passengers they're gonna have to steam clean or replace all the upholstery...



Guess I should have put link to article:

Air France Flight 7 had just left the gate and was taxing towards the runway when its left wingtip clipped a Comair Flight 6293, which had just landed and was headed towards a gate.

Also -
The FAA said there were no injuries but both planes sustained damage.
Quoting Grothar:


This gets bigger everyday. Hope we get some of that moisture soon.




The absence of formidable tropical systems over the past several years has left the peninsula in quite a pickle so to speak. We are one of the few areas in the world that actually depend on them to survive. Most, if not all, of the peninsula is either overdue or long overdue a land falling tropical system and it shows in the KBDI maps.
Quoting hydrus:
Very wet and very dry in close proximity...

Some very nice showers today here in Trinidad.
Very peculiar to see this much WV around here in April!
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Ahh so those landlocked counties even though they are mostly swamp are taken into special consideration. Wouldn't that take away from landfall of the county it preceded? I mean it can't make landfall on those counties unless it travels through a coastline county?

Unless it developed over land within the county?

One thing is for sure, stay away from Monroe county. Holy Jesus. 15 storms in 109 years and its a third the size of Miami-Dade country. It's staggering that a Hurrican travels through those 2 counties once every 4 years.
I guess you don't know Monroe County. It's area consists of a lot of the Everglades as well as the Florida Keys which stretch 130+- miles to the peninsula of Florida. The Keys are a "string of Pearls" which can be crossed by a storm rather quickly. And a storm in Marathon may not make a dent in Key West. However, since our tie line for electricity and aqueduct for potable water stretches the length of the keys, we all are impacted to one degree or another by any damage done along this "artery". US 1 does carry our "life blood". But I have lived here for 51 years, been through a lot of hurricanes and I would not live anywhere else. I guess it takes a certain kind of person to appreciate Keys living. So please stay in Illinois and enjoy your tornadoes!
Quoting pottery:

Some very nice showers today here in Trinidad.
Very peculiar to see this much WV around here in April!

For Information...
This is the FIRST time in 23 years of living in this house that the lawn is green at this date. By several weeks.
Even my Calabash tree still has all it's leaves.
Unheard of!
But very nice.
Please continue.....
NASA Gives Space Shuttles to Smithsonian and Museums in Calif., Florida and NYC

Space shuttle Discovery, NASA's oldest remaining orbiter and the world's most flown spacecraft, will be displayed by the Smithsonian's National Air and Space Museum at its Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center near Dulles International Airport.

The shuttle Endeavour, which will launch on its own final mission later this month, will be given to the California Science Center, a department of the State of California, in Los Angeles.

Shuttle Atlantis will remain in Florida to be exhibited at the spaceport's official visitor complex after launching on the 135th and last mission of NASA's shuttle program in late June.

Bolden also announced that the atmospheric test orbiter Enterprise, which has belonged to the Smithsonian since 1982 and has been on display at the Udvar-Hazy Center since 2003, will be transferred to the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum, a converted aircraft carrier docked to a pier in New York City, to make way for Discovery to enter the national collection.
It's dry in the western Caribbean. No hidden moisture there.

Quoting hydrus:
Large disturbance over Africa....


A little early for Cape Verde season, no?
Quoting hurricanejunky:


A little early for Cape Verde season, no?

LOL
But we are still waiting on the Dry Season, due in Jan., and it has not come as yet.
So strange things can/do happen.

Would be freaky to see a CV system in April though.
Would throw everything into a confusion.....
Quoting kwgirl:
I guess you don't know Monroe County. It's area consists of a lot of the Everglades as well as the Florida Keys which stretch 130 - miles to the peninsula of Florida. The Keys are a "string of Pearls" which can be crossed by a storm rather quickly. And a storm in Marathon may not make a dent in Key West. However, since our tie line for electricity and aqueduct for potable water stretches the length of the keys, we all are impacted to one degree or another by any damage done along this "artery". US 1 does carry our "life blood". But I have lived here for 51 years, been through a lot of hurricanes and I would not live anywhere else. I guess it takes a certain kind of person to appreciate Keys living. So please stay in Illinois and enjoy your tornadoes!


Case in point the 1935 Labor Day hurricane. Key West was relatively unscathed while the Matacumbe Keys were flattened. Bodies in trees, people's skin and clothes sandblasted off, 25 ft storm surge, 200 mph winds, etc. Hurricane Georges officially made landfall in Key West but the worst of it was felt in Marathon. Those are two examples that immediately come to mind. I'm sure there are many others. Key West is like our 2nd home. We've been so many times that it's like visiting an old friend whenever we come down. You are absolutely right, there is nothing like Keys living.
Quoting pottery:

For Information...
This is the FIRST time in 23 years of living in this house that the lawn is green at this date. By several weeks.
Even my Calabash tree still has all it's leaves.
Unheard of!
But very nice.
Please continue.....
Pleny of moisture by you Pott...
This is my first post since last year hurricane season so.....good to see many of you are posting this early in 2011.

I am just reporting that local mets are talking a lot about all the rain we have southeast of Puerto Rico. We are expecting this rain to begin now in the afternoon 'til Thursday.

What I can see is that skies are turning BLACK BLACK BLACK.

How about the chances of getting our first named storm before June 1st? Anybody?
Quoting hurricanejunky:


A little early for Cape Verde season, no?


It might be early but the evidence of heat and disturbance is there and its been a bit odd for a month now.

There's been massive amounts of thunder activity over the central Africa area some of which Keeper posted a while back and maybe this year there will be an intermission from the rules.

Already the Atlantic coast of Florida is having hot currents, a few weeks early according to watchers and bathers.
look at the low on land!!
Keep in mind the water vapor image is only showing the top 3rd of the atmosphere...so don't be fooled
Quoting hydrus:
Pleny of moisture by you Pott...

Yeah. Very unusual.
And loads of moisture being pulled up from the Spanish Main.
Expecting more showers later.

Quoting PlazaRed:


It might be early but the evidence of heat and disturbance is there and its been a bit odd for a month now.

There's been massive amounts of thunder activity over the central Africa area some of which Keeper posted a while back and maybe this year there will be an intermission from the rules.

Already the Atlantic coast of Florida is having hot currents, a few weeks early according to watchers and bathers.


Oh, I wasn't saying it as if it couldn't happen, I was saying it as an observation.

I NEVER rule anything out when it comes to weather.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


A little early for Cape Verde season, no?
Lol...What? havnt you seen monster April cat-5,s...:)..Marathon seems to get pounded quite regularly...Mom was there for Donna..I was there for the glancing blow from Agnes. There were some flooding and tornadoes on the keys. Was on Marathon for the June 1982 noname storm, which was particularly nasty.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Keep in mind the water vapor image is only showing the top 3rd of the atmosphere...so don't be fooled

I am looking at the Mid-Level WV images.

Lots of heavy rains approaching Puerto Rico from the SE as well.
See post 76 from PR.
hey hydrus can you post me the link to that GFS model that shows the TS at 1236 hours
April 10 2011 will go down at least tied for the biggest one-day Tornado Outbreak in Wisconsin History during the month of April. The other big April tornado outbreak was on April 27 1984, when 10 tornadoes occurred. This included the violent Wales Tornado in Waukesha County, rated an F4.

So far, two strong tornadoes have been surveyed. An EF2 in Adams County, and at least an EF2 in Marathon County near Merrill WI. For the month of April in Wisconsin, these are the first strong tornadoes in 17 years (April 26 1994 in NW Wisconsin). They are the first strong tornadoes in 27 years in the month of April for central or southern WI (April 27 1984).

Since damage assessments continue, more tornadoes may be found and recorded in the next few days.

Link

Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look at the low on land!!
Has a "springy" look to it..:)
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look at the low on land!!


Merely a pathfinder for what is to come!!
Quoting DestinJeff:


WHAT? really? can you send the link?

Although that is so far out, it is likely to change 1236 times ... but still, it looks like it is GAME ON!

I know one thing for sure ... that sucker is headed more WEST than NORTH!
We are Doom...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey hydrus can you post me the link to that GFS model that shows the TS at 1236 hours
....here ya go...
Try this...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rb.h tml
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Case in point the 1935 Labor Day hurricane. Key West was relatively unscathed while the Matacumbe Keys were flattened. Bodies in trees, people's skin and clothes sandblasted off, 25 ft storm surge, 200 mph winds, etc. Hurricane Georges officially made landfall in Key West but the worst of it was felt in Marathon. Those are two examples that immediately come to mind. I'm sure there are many others. Key West is like our 2nd home. We've been so many times that it's like visiting an old friend whenever we come down. You are absolutely right, there is nothing like Keys living.
Hurricane Donna is another fine example. My family came down the keys after it had hit. We had to cross a pontoon bridge in Islamorda and in Marathon all the boats were on land and the trailers were in the water. We had to cross a hole in the old seven mile bridge with timbers laid down for the tires to traverse. We hit Key West and it looks like nothing happened. Just no water for a few days. But my main point is that Monroe County could be hit by a hurricane, in the Glades, and no damage would be done to the inhabited areas. I have not seen that map, but I am sure there are a lot of those examples as well. But I understand it all depends on what you are used to. I couldn't live in an area that have those horrible tornadoes. I'll take a hurricane any day, even 10 hurricanes, over one of those surprise tornadoes.
The 2010 NHC Forecast Verification Report has been released
As they had previously indicated they are modifying some of the concensus models to remove NOGAPS in the Atlantic basin.


Excerpt:

The consensus model composition has changed for 2011. The NGPI model has degraded the skill of the multi-model consensus models TVCN and TCON during the past few seasons in the Atlantic basin, but has contributed positively to those models in the eastern North Pacific basin. To account for this discrepancy, two versions of the TVCN and TCON will be implemented for 2011. TVCA and TCOA, which do not include the NGPI model, are intended for use in the Atlantic basin. TVCE and TCOE, which do include the NGPI model, are intended for use in the eastern Pacific basin.
Quoting pottery:
Try this...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rb.h tml

Sorry. Cannot get the 'link' to stick....
95. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


Yes, we all are.

By the way, rumors of the horses death have been greatly exaggerated.
*shutters up!*
Quoting hydrus:
....here ya go...

LOL
I wonder what they will call it?
Good to see we even have images of storms forecasted 1234 hrs in the future.
Aint technology great?
Quoting kwgirl:
I guess you don't know Monroe County. It's area consists of a lot of the Everglades as well as the Florida Keys which stretch 130 - miles to the peninsula of Florida. The Keys are a "string of Pearls" which can be crossed by a storm rather quickly. And a storm in Marathon may not make a dent in Key West. However, since our tie line for electricity and aqueduct for potable water stretches the length of the keys, we all are impacted to one degree or another by any damage done along this "artery". US 1 does carry our "life blood". But I have lived here for 51 years, been through a lot of hurricanes and I would not live anywhere else. I guess it takes a certain kind of person to appreciate Keys living. So please stay in Illinois and enjoy your tornadoes!


Most people live their whole lives and never see a tornado or know anyone who has been through a tornado living in Illinois or any other state. However, when you live in a hurricane prone area, everyone at least knows someone who's been through real bad. Oh and hurricanes produce violent tornado damage and lots of it. Its much more risky to be on the gulf coast then in Illinois. Ive been to those states during severe weather events, its not nearly as bad for most people as you here it to be, unless you happen to be in one of those areas that does get nailed by a tornado, then its bad, very bad. However living in a hurricane risk zone is a much bigger threat overall.

Tampa Bay however must be the least prone hurricane area in Florida, because we have been hit a lot more from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes more often then tropical cyclones. We've only occasionally had tropical cyclones come close enough to wreck havoc with strong winds rain and tornadoes. But none have come close enough or been strong enough to be a big deal in the Tampa Bay area.
Quoting DestinJeff:


Yes, we all are.

By the way, rumors of the horses death have been greatly exaggerated.

Good to learn that!
I think I read that the Horse is fine.
It's the Messenger that got it in the neck.
Should have anticipated that...

LOL
Quoting hydrus:
Lol...What? havnt you seen monster April cat-5,s...:)..Marathon seems to get pounded quite regularly...Mom was there for Donna..I was there for the glancing blow from Agnes. There were some flooding and tornadoes on the keys. Was on Marathon for the June 1982 noname storm, which was particularly nasty.


No, but nothing surprises me with weather. An April hurricane would be quite an event. My parents went thru Donna in Fort Myers where the Page Field anemometer failed at 138mph. The wind speeds recorded in Marathon were in the 180-190 range. I have a good Hurricane Donna page on my website under Infamous Storms. It was an amazing storm but one that doesn't get that much mention compared to some of the other notable but more recent storms.
Quoting kwgirl:
I'll take a hurricane any day, even 10 hurricanes, over one of those surprise tornadoes.

I'll agree with you there. So far as things nature can throw at you that can destroy you, I'd rather deal with hurricanes, too; they're easy to spot far in advance. Warning times of various destructive phenomena:

--Asteroid/comet impact: months, years, or decades
--Hurricane: several days
--Tsunamis: several minutes to several hours
--Tornadoes: several seconds to several minutes
--Earthquakes: 0 seconds to several seconds.
Quoting 47n91w:
April 10 2011 will go down at least tied for the biggest one-day Tornado Outbreak in Wisconsin History during the month of April. The other big April tornado outbreak was on April 27 1984, when 10 tornadoes occurred. This included the violent Wales Tornado in Waukesha County, rated an F4.

So far, two strong tornadoes have been surveyed. An EF2 in Adams County, and at least an EF2 in Marathon County near Merrill WI. For the month of April in Wisconsin, these are the first strong tornadoes in 17 years (April 26 1994 in NW Wisconsin). They are the first strong tornadoes in 27 years in the month of April for central or southern WI (April 27 1984).

Since damage assessments continue, more tornadoes may be found and recorded in the next few days.

Link



We had at least 9 confirmed tornadoes in just my county plus neighboring hillsborough county in one day a couple weeks ago. It may come out to as many as 11.

That is impressive though, Wisconsin usually isn't as big with tornadoes as some of the other plain states are.
Quoting kwgirl:
Hurricane Donna is another fine example. My family came down the keys after it had hit. We had to cross a pontoon bridge in Islamorda and in Marathon all the boats were on land and the trailers were in the water. We had to cross a hole in the old seven mile bridge with timbers laid down for the tires to traverse. We hit Key West and it looks like nothing happened. Just no water for a few days. But my main point is that Monroe County could be hit by a hurricane, in the Glades, and no damage would be done to the inhabited areas. I have not seen that map, but I am sure there are a lot of those examples as well. But I understand it all depends on what you are used to. I couldn't live in an area that have those horrible tornadoes. I'll take a hurricane any day, even 10 hurricanes, over one of those surprise tornadoes.


Absolutely. You can prepare for or flee from a hurricane. You can't do that with a tornado. And those big midwest tornadoes don't play!
Quoting hydrus:
....here ya go...


ha ha that is very funny why Gilbert
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Absolutely. You can prepare for or flee from a hurricane. You can't do that with a tornado. And those big midwest tornadoes don't play!


The chances of getting nailed by a tornado is far less though. Especially when its one of those large and powerful tornadoes.

My area in Pinellas County seems to be a prime tornado target though. The good news is at least 90% of the time tornadoes are weaker here then they are in Oklahoma and its neighboring states.

A 110 mph F1 tornado is still darn scary when you live only a few hundred yards from where it struck like what happened just a couple weeks back. I know its a whimpy tornado compared to a half mile wide F3 or F4 in Central and Southern Plains but its not whimpy if you get hit or come as close to getting hit as I did!
LinkPR radar


Stationary outflow boundary from Maryland to Newfoundland? Or jet stream?
Quoting Jedkins01:


Most people live their whole lives and never see a tornado or know anyone who has been through a tornado living in Illinois or any other state. However, when you live in a hurricane prone area, everyone at least knows someone who's been through real bad. Oh and hurricanes produce violent tornado damage and lots of it. Its much more risky to be on the gulf coast then in Illinois. Ive been to those states during severe weather events, its not nearly as bad for most people as you here it to be, unless you happen to be in one of those areas that does get nailed by a tornado, then its bad, very bad. However living in a hurricane risk zone is a much bigger threat overall.

Tampa Bay however must be the least prone hurricane area in Florida, because we have been hit a lot more from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes more often then tropical cyclones. We've only occasionally had tropical cyclones come close enough to wreck havoc with strong winds rain and tornadoes. But none have come close enough or been strong enough to be a big deal in the Tampa Bay area.


You must mean the least likely to get a hurricane. Tampa Bay is one of the most vulnerable areas in regards to storm surge and the catastrophe that would follow. TWC did an "It Could Happen Tomorrow" on a Tampa Bay major hurricane landfall. It's on par with New Orleans from a potential disaster standpoint.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Most people live their whole lives and never see a tornado or know anyone who has been through a tornado living in Illinois or any other state. However, when you live in a hurricane prone area, everyone at least knows someone who's been through real bad. Oh and hurricanes produce violent tornado damage and lots of it. Its much more risky to be on the gulf coast then in Illinois. Ive been to those states during severe weather events, its not nearly as bad for most people as you here it to be, unless you happen to be in one of those areas that does get nailed by a tornado, then its bad, very bad. However living in a hurricane risk zone is a much bigger threat overall.

Tampa Bay however must the least prone hurricane area in Florida, because we have been hit a lot more from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes more often then tropical cyclones. We've only occasionally had tropical cyclones come close enough to wreck havoc with strong winds rain and tornadoes. But none have come close enough or been strong enough to be a big deal in the Tampa Bay area.
You are more likely to get hit by lightning in Tampa and the Florida peninsula than anywhere else. When my sister moved to the Melbourne area, she told me of several cases of people being struck by lightning when the skies overhead were clear. What you describe is similar to what happens in the Keys. People know that hurricanes have crossed the state and that they came close to Tampa, yet you say none of them have been "strong enough". I guess you mean utter devistation? We get plenty of "near misses" and don't forget Hurricane Andrew. Because that storm was so large, and it had knocked out our "extension cord" including phone and electricity there had been a report on the television that the "Keys" had been wiped out, just as it was reported in Donna and Betsy. However, in Andrew, we barely got any rain or wind in Key West. I can't attest to the rest of the Keys and I know that Key Largo got hit pretty hard. There were some Key Westers who took the advise and evacuated (into the storm I might add) stopped in Cutler Ridge and rode out Andrew with windows breaking around them. Anyway, I know it can happen here as well in Tampa, even though we are a little 3 x 5 mile speck in the ocean that is hard to hit. After living here 50 years and seeing some pretty bad storms, never having evacuated the keys, I will still take a hurricane over a Mid West tornado. And you cannot compare our small tornadoes to those. Two different monsters.
Quoting Jedkins01:


The chances of getting nailed by a tornado is far less though. Especially when its one of those large and powerful tornadoes.


You mean down here? We don't get more than F0/F1 and an occasional and rare F2. In the midwest, however, you can check with the town of Greensberg or Xenia or Moore or any number of other towns in the midwest that have been steamrolled by killer tornadoes. Better have a basement!
110. Jax82
the vizzy

111. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
The 2010 NHC Forecast Verification Report has been released
As they had previously indicated they are modifying some of the concensus models to remove NOGAPS in the Atlantic basin.


Excerpt:

The consensus model composition has changed for 2011. The NGPI model has degraded the skill of the multi-model consensus models TVCN and TCON during the past few seasons in the Atlantic basin, but has contributed positively to those models in the eastern North Pacific basin. To account for this discrepancy, two versions of the TVCN and TCON will be implemented for 2011. TVCA and TCOA, which do not include the NGPI model, are intended for use in the Atlantic basin. TVCE and TCOE, which do include the NGPI model, are intended for use in the eastern Pacific basin.


Selling the poor NOGAPS down the river for a 10nm error at 84 hours.

Shameful.
Was looking at June Hurricanes....found this site.
Image below is of Cat4 Hurricane Audry. Hit Texas/La in June 1957.....419 killed

Link
I was very ashamed when someone I know sent me this article on facebook and legitimately believed it was real... Its sad to see anyone believes bull crap like this, including people I know, read this article:

Link
Quoting hurricanejunky:


You mean down here? We don't get more than F0/F1 and an occasional and rare F2. In the midwest, however, you can check with the town of Greensberg or Xenia or Moore or any number of other towns in the midwest that have been steamrolled by killer tornadoes. Better have a basement!


The record for FL - an F4 (old system)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Tampa_tornado_f amily


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Kissimmee_torna do_outbreak
Quoting hurricanejunky:


You mean down here? We don't get more than F0/F1 and an occasional and rare F2. In the midwest, however, you can check with the town of Greensberg or Xenia or Moore or any number of other towns in the midwest that have been steamrolled by killer tornadoes. Better have a basement!


Well yeah some places have been absolutely devastated by tornadoes in the Midwest. But lets be real, mathematically the chances are still very low. I mean if you get hit by one of those then God help you, but the chances are slim. Millions of people living in the Midwest never see tornadoes. Even large amounts of the biggest baddest tornadoes cover a very small area of of land. Its a big world out there.


Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ha ha that is very funny why Gilbert
..No reason other than it is one of the more impressive sat pics..My GFS post was just for fun of course.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Was looking at June Hurricanes....found this site.
Image below is of Cat4 Hurricane Audry. Hit Texas/La in June 1957.....419 killed

Link
Excellent pic..
Strong thunderstorm about 15 miles north of me heading toward Volusia County is producing some very dangerous lightning right now. People on the beach better watch this one as it could approach pretty fast.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I was very ashamed when someone I know sent me this article on facebook and legitimately believed it was real... Its sad to see anyone believes bull crap like this, including people I know, read this article:

Link
That sure it "Out There". It is sooooo ludicrous. But I do believe in UFO's:)
Also HIEXPRESS provided the link up there to show that we do get worse than just the rare f2 here, there have been 2 tornadoes right in my area that would be rated E-F5 on the new scale, but were rated F4 on the old one. A number of F3 tornadoes have occurred in Florida as well, some which would be rated E-F4 on the new scale. Of course we still get way less of them then the plains do, but still.





Ultimately though, as scary as large tornadoes are, cutting aside fear, mathematically it is still very unlikely to be hit by one even in the heart of tornado alley. I'm not dismissing anyone who has been devastated by them, I'm just putting things into logical prospective.
121. xcool


quite interesting neway next...
Quoting hurricanejunky:


No, but nothing surprises me with weather. An April hurricane would be quite an event. My parents went thru Donna in Fort Myers where the Page Field anemometer failed at 138mph. The wind speeds recorded in Marathon were in the 180-190 range. I have a good Hurricane Donna page on my website under Infamous Storms. It was an amazing storm but one that doesn't get that much mention compared to some of the other notable but more recent storms.
I will check out your infamous storms page..I have only met a few people that actually went through and remember Donna...They all said it was very bad.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
256 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

FLZ041-044-121945-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
256 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...
WEST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.

AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER
NORTHERNMOST LAKE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.
There will be no adverse health effects from Fukushima because we will all die from antibiotic-resistant superbugs containing the NDM 1 gene:

(Reuters article) - A gene that makes bugs highly resistant to almost all known antibiotics has been found in bacteria in water supplies in New Delhi used by local people for drinking, washing and cooking, scientists said on Thursday.

The NDM 1 gene, which creates what some experts describe as "super superbugs," has spread to germs that cause cholera and dysentery, and is circulating freely in other bacteria in the Indian city capital of 14 million people, the researchers said.

The inhabitants of New Delhi are continually being exposed to multidrug-resistant and NDM 1-positive bacteria," said Mark Toleman of Britain's Cardiff University School of Medicine, who published the findings in a study on Thursday.

...

NDM 1, or New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase 1, makes bacteria resistant to almost all antibiotics, including the most powerful class, called carbapenems.

It first emerged in India three years ago and has now spread across the world. It has been found in a wide variety of bugs, including familiar pathogens like Escherichia coli, or E. coli.

...

Experts say the spread of superbugs threatens whole swathes of modern medicine, which cannot be practiced if doctors have no effective antibiotics to ward off infections during surgery, intensive care or cancer treatments like chemotherapy.


No new drugs of likely significance in the pipeline, either.

WTO
Quoting xcool:


quite interesting neway next...
This will be interesting to watch..
Quoting hydrus:
Excellent pic..


Ty Hydrus....I love old pics of all kinds..
127. xcool
More fun with the upcoming hurricane season
I love to show my readers what I look at when coming up with a hurricane power and impact forecast, so here comes another little ditty for you, showing you how the negative MAY NAO is probably the strongest indicator of high impact on the US coast

Taking the highest 9 non nino, warm AMO impact seasons on the US coast, we see the May pressure pattern in the atlantic looks like this








Now check this out… even though I expect enough cold to chop down temps mid and late month from where its warm, its not like the model is not seeing some funny business here

Look at the April ANALOGS to those same years




Note, its the mid and late April into May period that is got more cold coming, as we can see with the modeling now, especially in the plains.. that is what works back east later.

Point is the model is seeing the analogs.

Its funny, cause this hurricane write up I got here, has so many things in it, and I just show some bits and pieces to you, including the impact pendulum which I think is going to get a test this year. But that is another story for another time… this is enough food for thought for you to chew on.

or is that ciao on.

ciao ( chew?) for now

BY JOE B http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1071
Quoting kwgirl:
That sure it "Out There". It is sooooo ludicrous. But I do believe in UFO's:)



lol, well your not alone! I'm not gonna come out and say it was a space ship being piloted by green men. However I had an experience one night that scared the crap out of me. I saw an object with the brightest unnatural light being emitted Ive ever seen, and it was pulsating and changing different colors. However what was the most disturbing part was the sound. I was actually peacefully sleeping, but my window was open and it made the most awful and unearthly noise Ive ever heard that woke me up, then I looked out and watched it move in a straight line eventually away from view.

Being that my dad was in the air force for years and I grew up on an air force base. I know and have learned of every noise and appearance made by every human air craft. Also I am very much into science realizing that things can play tricks on you. I also always dismissed alien sightings as always superstitious or people who just want to believe it. I also am a an outdoorsman, a hunter, and just an all around person who doesn't get scared or believe things like that easy.

With all that said, the experience I had that one night was disturbing and I can't deny there are unexplained and real things out there beyond what we understand. I won't say they were aliens from space but it sure as heck seemed like it.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Ty Hydrus....I love old pics of all kinds..
This is 1958,s Hurricane Helene. Which skirted the North Carolina coast with vicious wind gusts and significant damage. It went on to pound Newfoundland.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I was very ashamed when someone I know sent me this article on facebook and legitimately believed it was real... Its sad to see anyone believes bull crap like this, including people I know, read this article:

Link


Jed, there are a lot of stupid people out there. Ever watch "Larry - the cable guy?"
Quoting hydrus:
This is 1958,s Hurricane Helene. Which skirted the North Carolina coast with vicious wind gusts and significant damage. It went on to pound Newfoundland.


huge eye !
Quoting SQUAWK:


Jed, there are a lot of stupid people out there. Ever watch "Larry - the cable guy?"
There was a H.A.R.P. project ( High Altitude Research Project ) back in the 1960,s. They fired an 185 pound projectile to an altitude of 590,000 feet or about 111 miles. High enough to orbit if the trajectory was right...Link
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


huge eye !
It was a huge storm at cat-4 strength.
Here is the lady who got our attention in Ms and made me "always weather aware" ...the reason I am on this weather blog. AUG. 1969 CAMILLE


not sure wats wrong here!!
Quoting SQUAWK:


Jed, there are a lot of stupid people out there. Ever watch "Larry - the cable guy?"


LOL good point!

Not to be mean but he just isn't very bright haha
Quoting hydrus:
There was a H.A.R.P. project ( High Altitude Research Project ) back in the 1960,s. They fired an 185 pound projectile to an altitude of 590,000 feet or about 111 miles. High enough to orbit if the trajectory was right...Link


There was, but when you read what the article says I posted, it says they are using that project as a weapon and its responsible for all the disasters in recent years. They obviously aren't bright enough to realize its just natural disasters.

Those type of articles always have to use something real to mix in all bull crap with. Kinda like McDonalds saying they use real beef :) lol
138. Jax82
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


not sure wats wrong here!!


OMG RUN!
Quoting Jax82:


OMG RUN!



LOL....I'm leaving now !
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


not sure wats wrong here!!
Ya know...just another one of those pesky April hurricanes...:)
Quoting tkeith:
We are Doom...
And thus it begins.
Quoting hydrus:
There was a H.A.R.P. project ( High Altitude Research Project ) back in the 1960,s. They fired an 185 pound projectile to an altitude of 590,000 feet or about 111 miles. High enough to orbit if the trajectory was right...Link


Yup.... and a Henry Kissinger, a U.N., a WHO, a U.S. Air Force and on and on. It does not make it a creditable article.
Here is another very nasty tornado outbreak in Florida, this time cause by a hurricane:Link

I think powerful hurricanes probably produce a lot of strong tornadoes in their inner cores, its just the damage from the hurricane itself is similar so its hard to tell the difference.

Whereas its easier to confirm tornado outbreaks in weaker tropical cyclones because the tornadoes are easier to pick out. Especially with hybrids like Agnes, posted in the link.
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


not sure wats wrong here!!


Oh boy.......i'm outta here LOL
124. WatchingThisOne

Well now this is a turn up for the book? you can just hear the faithful and devoted screaming that this is all part of the huge population control thing that is being aired a bit tonight by Jeds link.

113. Jedkins01 9:18 PM CEST on April 12, 2011

I suppose that its down to the remnants of the old Raj. doing a bit of testing at micro biotic level.

I have endless battles and screaming sessions with some of my clients who believe all of this and much more, there's always somebody behind it but they can never find,remember or dare tell the names and always the rich will be saved.

Blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the earth!

well they will extend hurr.season from april to nov if things keep popping up.


another model?? we need some explanation now
135. Thats a GFDL test, note how instead of invest9*L it says test80L. Not very likely we'd get a 135 knot Category 4 in April.

Speaking of the season 49 days till..

Wow that storm spinning over the U.S right now is impressive.Anywho I see the models are also impatient when it comes to tropical weather.Lol.A weak tropical cyclone.Yeah I could belive.But an April hurricane?.No way.Not unless the Eath is coming to an end.
150. JRRP
Oh well, there's a "party pooper" in every crowd :) !!!
Not looking forward to the Big Storms, but some tropical showers would sure be welcome in my corner of SW Fla! That's a mighty impressive disturbance rolling through the SE Caribbean. Any guesses as to when we start seeing pop-up t-showers, given how warm the Atlantic & Gulf have gotten?


this is the entity the models are picking up on i believe
154. JRRP
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


another model?? we need some explanation now

lol
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Not looking forward to the Big Storms, but some tropical showers would sure be welcome in my corner of SW Fla! That's a mighty impressive disturbance rolling through the SE Caribbean. Any guesses as to when we start seeing pop-up t-showers, given how warm the Atlantic & Gulf have gotten?


I believe afternoon showers and storms will come to Florida earlier this year. Water temps are well ahead of schedule and so are air temps. This year seems to be counteracting last years very lame storm season in Florida. It may get going early, and hopefully it will be a lot more active.

I can't say for sure of course, I might be wrong but it seems to be heading in that direction.

Overall the atmosphere is more unstable then last year too. We had persistent weak lapse rates and warm air aloft all of last year. This year we've had lots of colder air aloft, steeper lapse rates in general. That often makes all the difference come the wet season cause by then we always have well more than enough heat and moisture to work with.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Yup.... and a Henry Kissinger, a U.N., a WHO, a U.S. Air Force and on and on. It does not make it a creditable article.
lol..I guess you dont care for Heinz too much...He is a controversial figure to say the least.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well yeah some places have been absolutely devastated by tornadoes in the Midwest. But lets be real, mathematically the chances are still very low. I mean if you get hit by one of those then God help you, but the chances are slim. Millions of people living in the Midwest never see tornadoes. Even large amounts of the biggest baddest tornadoes cover a very small area of of land. Its a big world out there.




The majority of the US population lives in densely populated metropolitan areas which, for the most part, seem to be "tornado proof". That or their damn lucky. Having lived in the midwest for 20 years I endured many tornado warnings (confirmed ground sitings). I was either unlucky or the chances are a little bit better than you give them credit for.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I believe afternoon showers and storms will come to Florida earlier this year. Water temps are well ahead of schedule and so are air temps. This year seems to be counteracting last years very lame storm season in Florida. It may get going early, and hopefully it will be a lot more active.

I can say for sure of course, I might be wrong but it seems to be heading in that direction.



Not quite sure what to expect this year. It's been a while since we rolled neutrally into summer. Seems La Nina or Nino has always been about.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Oh well, there's a "party pooper" in every crowd :) !!!
Here is awesome footage of hurricanes way back in the 50,s and 60,s. Or any time frame for that matter..Helene, Carla and Audry are first..They had a VERY rare shot of powerful Hurricane Ione,s eye from recon aircraft...Here is the link..Definitely worth a bookmark..Link
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


this is the entity the models are picking up on i believe


Let me repeat, the HWRF and GFDL are not predicting a Category 4 hurricane in April. Look at the data at the top of the model, note how it says test80L.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Oh well, there's a "party pooper" in every crowd :) !!!
Who's the party pooper?.So we can give them the special hat :).
cud this season surpass 2005?????........................................l evi back too you...lol



Situation Report #2 from Wisconsin Emergency Management

557 : Homes damaged (minor)
177 : Homes damaged (major)
38 : Homes destroyed
7 : Businesses damaged (minor)
9 : Businesses damaged (major)
10 : Businesses destroyed

$ 19.3 million - estimated private damages, so far
$ 338,000 - estimated public damages, so far
Hey Guys, After a Prolonged abstence from this blog, i came in here to check on the tropics.

Very intresting hurricane season might play out.

Anyone else read accuweather's risk forcast for the United states?

Heres a funny one for you.

Quoting kwgirl:
That sure it "Out There". It is sooooo ludicrous. But I do believe in UFO's:)

I was working as a site engineer in the world expo of 1992 in Seville and we were building a stand for CERN, the European atomic energy commission. loads of talk about particle theory and quarks etc as the representative of CERN passed us nails and tubes of glue.
At one point the conversation drifted to UFOs, as it does in these places and he commented that the world was somewhat prepared for them, I added that they might not be prepared for us! Needless to say on the matter of their possible intelligence levels he said we might have a lot in common.
I had to disagree with this, as I pointed out that they would have got to us, before we had got to them and as such comparing intelligence levels would not be an issue, as if they didn't want us around they would only have to sprinkle a bit of purifier into the atmosphere and we would be history.
Conclusion Aliens are not unfriendly only a bit thin on the 'ground.'
Quoting hydrus:
Here is awesome footage of hurricanes way back in the 50,s and 60,s. Or any time frame for that matter..Helene, Carly and Audry are first..They had a VERY rare shot of powerful Hurricane Ione,s eye from recon aircraft...Here is the link..Definitely worth a bookmark..Link


AWESOME thanks...have saved...Cantore could take lessons from this guy, and the soundtrack is perfect!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Who's the party pooper?.So we can give them the special hat :).


I was just joking around....think it was CyberT that discovered the "test"......lol..


a peak at the severe weather and disturbance in the Caribbean VISIBLE STYLE
Jed,
I thought everywhere in Florida but Jacksonville got hit by tropical storm force winds in 2004... the year when 4 hurricanes and a tropical storm rolled into Florida.
I think Charlie passed close to the south of Tampa, but then again it was fast and small.
Emergency managers were preping for it to hit there, when it diverted to the south, close to shore.
HOpe the good fortune lasts, because that place is Low and Flat, and storm surge heaven.
HMMMmmmm ~~~~~:)
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


this is the entity the models are picking up on i believe
There is some rotation with this system..You can see it clearly on the MIMIC run..This moisture may be picked up later by a mid-latitude low, and cause flooding and severe weather issues..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
xx/xx/xx


How have you been?
Quoting biff4ugo:
Jed,
I thought everywhere in Florida but Jacksonville got hit by tropical storm force winds in 2004... the year when 4 hurricanes and a tropical storm rolled into Florida.
I think Charlie passed close to the south of Tampa, but then again it was fast and small.
Emergency managers were preping for it to hit there, when it diverted to the south, close to shore.


Jacksonville also received TS force winds from Frances and Jeanne in 2004. I have no data to back that up but living 20 miles south in St Augustine, we had TS force winds here and were without power 6 days for Frances and 3 days for Jeanne.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Here is the lady who got our attention in Ms and made me "always weather aware" ...the reason I am on this weather blog. AUG. 1969 CAMILLE
I remember Camille, particularly because she was bearing down on Cuba and the Keys. However, she stalled, drifted back over Cuba, came back over Cuba, drifted back over Cuba, which knocked her down real well before coming over the Keys. Unfortunately, she rebuilt her strength in the GOM and wiped out the Mississippi coast. Tragic Hurricane!
Quoting sammywammybamy:


How have you been?
fine
Ah!.SammyWammyBammy is on.It's gonna be hella wild on the blog this hurricane season.I can tell you that much.
Quoting kwgirl:
I remember Camille, particularly because she was bearing down on Cuba and the Keys. However, she stalled, drifted back over Cuba, came back over Cuba, drifted back over Cuba, which knocked her down real well before coming over the Keys. Unfortunately, she rebuilt her strength in the GOM and wiped out the Mississippi coast. Tragic Hurricane!


You're so right and back in those days we were'nt so informed or prepared...thought it was the worst I'd ever see....and then came Katrina...
Quoting MississippiBoy2:
well they will extend hurr.season from april to nov if things keep popping up.
So? Does that change anything? It is what it is and Mother Nature will do what she does whether we proclaim it Hurricane Season or not.
South of PR/ East Carribean :

Station 42060
NDBC
Location: 16.500N 63.5W
Conditions as of:
Tue, 12 Apr 2011 19:50:00 UTC

Winds: SE (130°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.93 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.5 F
Dew Point: 68.5 F
xx/xx/AOI
MARK
14.13N/64.12W
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ah!.SammyWammyBammy is on.It's gonna be hella wild on the blog this hurricane season.I can tell you that much.

Why? Is Sammy a wild one?
West of Previous Buoy:

Station 42059
NDBC
Location: 15.054N 67.472W
Conditions as of:
Tue, 12 Apr 2011 19:50:00 UTC

Winds: E (90°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and falling
Air Temperature: 75.2 F
Water Temperature: 80.6 F
View Details - View History
From the Jackson, MS NWS Discussion:

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...


CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WX EVENT FRIDAY.
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUID HAVE ALL TRENDED
TOWARD A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE PREV EURO RUNS. THEY ALL SHOW A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. STRONG JET
ENERGY/HGHT FALLS WILL INCITE LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AND ULTIMATELY
DEVELOP A POTENT CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL THEN DEEPEN QUICKLY AND THE SFC CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE ACROSS
EASTERN KS CAUSING A STACKED SYSTEM TO TAKE SHAPE. AS THIS
OCCURS...MULTIPLE SVR WX PARAMETERS WILL COMBINE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE HISTORICAL
CORRELATION TO HIGHER END EVENTS.
TO START...THE 500MB HGHT PATTERN
WILL TAKE ON A SLIGHT NEG TILT WITH THE CWA BENEATH THE 565-575DM
CONTOURS. AT THE SFC...A DEEP CYCLONE WITH POTENTIALLY SUB 990MB
PRESSURES WILL EXIST NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER WITH SUB 1006MB
PRESSURES SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. LASTLY...GUID INDICATES
A DRY LINE FEATURE WILL SPREAD FAR EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA AND HELP
TRIGGER CONVECTION. WITH THAT...SOLID VALUES OF WIND SHEAR (200-400
0-1KM SRH) LOOK TO BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ON FRI
AS A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 55-65KTS ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. COMBINING SUCH FEATURES...ALONG WITH OTHER ELEMENTS...
TYPICALLY LEADS TO MULTIPLE SVR STORMS WITH SOME HIGHER END TYPE EVENTS.

WHILE DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AND MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY ADJ SOME
OVER THE COMING DAYS...THE STRONG TREND OF THE GUID TODAY TOWARD A
COMMON SOLUTION HAS INCREASED THE CONFIDENCE QUITE A BIT ON SOME
SORT OF SVR EVENT TAKING SHAPE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY ON FRI.
CURRENT INDICATION IS THAT THE ACTIVE WX PERIOD WILL LINGER AND NOT
BE IN A HURRY TO EXIT THE REGION. THE REASON FOR THIS LINGERING
SOLUTION IS THE OCCLUDED SFC LOW AND CUT OFF UPPER SYSTEM.
OVERALL...THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND OUR CWA LOOKS TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SVR STORMS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. FOR NOW...ALL
MODES OF SVR WX APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH SOME RISK FOR HIGHER END TYPE
SVR IF THE PROGS HOLD FIRM TO THE PROJECTED SVR WX ELEMENTS.
DETAILS
ON THIS SHOULD BE MORE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS. FOR
NOW...WILL PLAY UP THE HWO SOME...BUT RESERVE ROOM FOR FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT AS THE POTENTIAL EVENT NEARS AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
A PARTICULAR SOLUTION. /CME/
Quoting InconceivableF6:

Why? Is Sammy a wild one?


Not at all.

More like the One who posts the images and info from buoy's located underneath the storms.

If you would like a link for the Buoy Site (NOAA owns it) or a Radar (Eg. South Florida Water District Management)

Ill give you the links.
The NGP shows a low tapping in to some Caribbean moisture..Link
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Not at all.

More like the One who posts the images and info from buoy's located underneath the storms.

If you would like a link for the Buoy Site (NOAA owns it) or a Radar (Eg. South Florida Water District Management)

Ill give you the links.

Yeah, please do.
Quoting kwgirl:
So? Does that change anything? It is what it is and Mother Nature will do what she does whether we proclaim it Hurricane Season or not.


Actually , most people do not perceive the fact that hurricanes can form in April.

They honestly belive that Hurricanes only generate during the active months.

The possible severe weather outbreak in Dixie Alley this weekend is pretty close to the one year anniversary of the Yazoo City, MS tornado.

April 24, 2010:

Link
Quoting InconceivableF6:

Yeah, please do.


National Data Buoy Center

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Navy Imagery/ Floaters

Link

Enhanced African Wave Satellite


Link


Tropical Storm Postion Page

Link


--- (This is just a few) ---
Quoting sammywammybamy:


National Data Buoy Center
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Navy Imagery/ Floaters
Enhanced African Wave SatelliteLink
Tropical Storm Postion Page
Link


--- (This is just a few) ---

Thank You!
Quoting MississippiWx:
The possible severe weather outbreak in Dixie Alley this weekend is pretty close to the one year anniversary of the Yazoo City, MS tornado.

April 24, 2010:

Link


We will watch and see which direction the CHASERS move....Link
Quoting InconceivableF6:

Thank You!


I Fixed up the comment, it should look organized now...

Anyway...



Intresting...
Looky,looky....got 3 Ms bloggers on at one time !! You Florida folks....just..."git back".....lol
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Looky,looky....got 3 Ms bloggers on at one time !! You Florida folks....just..."git back".....lol


Im Wondering is Accuweather correct in it's assumption that the "West Gulf Coast"(47 Percent of Hit by accuweather) and the Florida Peninsula (49 percent of hit by accuweather) are at a great risk this year?

Carribean:

61% of a Hit in the Carribean this year

United States (Total)

70% chance of a major hurricane making landfall
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Im Wondering is Accuweather correct in it's assumption that the "West Gulf Coast"(47 Percent of Hit by accuweather) and the Florida Peninsula (49 percent of hit by accuweather) are at a great risk this year?

Carribean:

61% of a Hit in the Carribean this year

United States (Total)

70% chance of a major hurricane making landfall


Gosh Sammy...they might be....but I trust some of these seasoned bloggers here,more....this is the place to be for hurricanes !
Could see a sub tropical system form out of that mess is the SE Caribbean. There does appear to be some sort of spin trying to take shap in the upper levels. Either way an invest could come out of these over the next few days.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Gosh Sammy...they might be....but I trust some of these seasoned bloggers here,more....this is the place to be for hurricanes !


""It looks like we're going to have some chances here on the East Coast, particularly the Carolinas down into the Southeast," Expert Senior Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "Mid to late season ... we're probably going to see more action on the Southeast coast and particularly Florida."



Another higher concern area during the middle to late part of the season along the East Coast is the southern tip of Florida.

AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said an area of high pressure over the Atlantic that helps to guide tropical storms may steer more storms to this area.

"[The high pressure] may weaken or actually reposition itself a little bit to the northeast as we get later in the season, which would allow more of a storm track closer to Florida and also up the East Coast," he said. "What we see is a clustering of storm impacts over the southeastern U.S., and that's the reason why we earmarked this as a concerned area."

As for the coastline from the Carolinas to southern New England, Kottlowski said there isn't much of a chance for a storm to hit this year.

"

Excerpt taken form Accuweather.com
This will be our next severe weather event in the U.S...
Quoting RastaSteve:
Could see a sub tropical system form out of that mess is the SE Caribbean. There does appear to be some sort of spin trying to take shap in the upper levels. Either way an invest could come out of these over the next few days.


Maybe.

I Give it a <4% Chance of Developing.
Excerpt from the Same Article by Accuweather:

".

As with most Atlantic hurricane seasons, the areas where storms are most likely to make landfall shift as the season progresses.

This year, the early season threat area will be the western Gulf of Mexico and the southern portion of the Caribbean. Within this zone, the higher concern for landfalls will be along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.

As for the mid-to-late season zones, the eastern Gulf and Caribbean will be the focus. The higher concern areas will be the Florida Peninsula to the Carolinas.

"What we see is there is a clustering of storm impacts over the southeastern US, and that's the reason why we earmarked this as a concern area," said Kottlowski.

Another mid-to-late season concern for landfalls will be northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes.

"We feel that this season, there will be a higher potential for impacts across the southern part of the Basin into the Gulf of Mexico during the first part of the season," Pastelok stated. "This higher potential for impacts shift farther north into the southeast U.S. during the latter half of the season."


. "
Quoting RastaSteve:
Could see a sub tropical system form out of that mess is the SE Caribbean. There does appear to be some sort of spin trying to take shap in the upper levels. Either way an invest could come out of these over the next few days.


Yup, maybe a 20% chance of Arlene (or higher but I wouldn't hype too much) appearing in a week or two. Scary thing, I was predicted an April/May subtropical storm somewhere near Haiti or the SE Bahamas/T&C Islands and looks like this is our one if it does occur. Also I have predicted a major hurricane to hit LA/TX in August and a minimal hurricane in S Florida near September/October and already one of my predictions have a shot at panning out.
Quoting Jedkins01:




"looky looky, a little keepsake for you guys".


LOL...too funny :) We'll getcha :0
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/psu_mrf_an.html
look at this!
Quoting hurricaneben:


Yup, maybe a 20% chance of Arlene (or higher but I wouldn't hype too much) appearing in a week or two. Scary thing, I was predicted an April/May subtropical storm somewhere near Haiti or the SE Bahamas/T&C Islands and looks like this is our one if it does occur. Also I have predicted a major hurricane to hit LA/TX in August and a minimal hurricane in S Florida near September/October and already one of my predictions have a shot at panning out.


Hi Ben,
Tip if you should need it, I suspect you don't,

Keep a notebook by the computer and whenever you see anything that looks a bit odd but plausible make a note of it you never know when there might be a bit of truth in the rumour.

Watch that east coast of Florida mid season, something might just run up it!
210. DDR
Sorry for Texas
Here in Trinidad and Tobago we've experience one of our wettest dry season ever,picked up almost 2 inches today,which is over the April average.
Quoting PlazaRed:


Hi Ben,
Tip if you should need it, I suspect you don't,

Keep a notebook by the computer and whenever you see anything that looks a bit odd but plausible make a note of it you never know when there might be a bit of truth in the rumour.

Watch that east coast of Florida mid season, something might just run up it!


Yeah, I agree. And ya I do have the feeling us in Florida may not get so lucky this season, hopefully no Wilma or Andrew but all clues point to Florida getting its 'due' storm, but I dont want it to cause too much destruction or deaths.
Quoting hurricaneben:


Yup, maybe a 20% chance of Arlene (or higher but I wouldn't hype too much) appearing in a week or two. Scary thing, I was predicted an April/May subtropical storm somewhere near Haiti or the SE Bahamas/T&C Islands and looks like this is our one if it does occur. Also I have predicted a major hurricane to hit LA/TX in August and a minimal hurricane in S Florida near September/October and already one of my predictions have a shot at panning out.


Hey Ben,

I know you're one of the younger bloggers around here, so I'm gonna try to be easy here...

You should be careful making a general prediction of possible future events. Confirmation bias has a nasty tendency to sneek in later and can cloud your forecasting. It can put emotions into your analysis of current weather trends because you have an investment in the outcome.

It is a much more noble proposition to want to be able to say, "I told you why." than to say "I told you so."

Plaza- If I am correct you are in Gibraltar? I was wondering about the direct/indirect TS/Hurr effects you have experienced on the Iberian Peninsula and if you have lived there long enough to notice an increase in activity there as well?
Quoting SeALWx:


Hey Ben,

I know you're one of the younger bloggers around here, so I'm gonna try to be easy here...

You should be careful making a general prediction of possible future events. Confirmation bias has a nasty tendency to sneek in later and can cloud your forecasting. It can put emotions into your analysis of current weather trends because you have an investment in the outcome.

It is a much more noble proposition to want to be able to say, "I told you why." than to say "I told you so."



WELL said sir
Quoting Hoff511:


WELL said sir

Thanks man.

BTW, I love fishing out of those ocean kayaks; like I see you sitting in in your profile pic.
hey every one!!
Local forecast for the entire island, not only in English but in Espanol as well. Link
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


LOL...too funny :) We'll getcha :0


hahaha!
218. xcool
Quoting MrMixon:


Ha! :)

Well, the number of idiots in Colorado might have gone up since last year, but I doubt it's gone up by 10x. I think the large number of fires has more to do with the timing of our precipitation more than anything else. Yes, we're behind on precipitation, but more importantly - our spring snows have been almost non-existent. The high peaks and Western Slope are in good shape, but snowpack in the foothills is pathetic for this time of year. We should've gotten at least one or two big spring snowfalls by now. I can't remember the last time we got more than 6" in a single storm... maybe sometime around New Years.


We got about 10" in my neck of the woods in Feb. sometime, I think. Since then we've received several snowfalls in the four to six inch range. I know the "official" precip totals are in the drought zone, but I've seen several other precip maps that show our precipitation to be around normal. Link
Quoting SeALWx:

Thanks man.

BTW, I love fishing out of those ocean kayaks; like I see you sitting in in your profile pic.


I agree, but I wouldn't stretch to call that an "ocean" kayak. It was a rental, but a great day on the water. I like a 14'+ to do anything serious.
Quoting Hoff511:
Plaza- If I am correct you are in Gibraltar? I was wondering about the direct/indirect TS/Hurr effects you have experienced on the Iberian Peninsula and if you have lived there long enough to notice an increase in activity there as well?


Thanks for the enquiry.
I don't live in Gibraltar but about 80 miles north east of it and about 60 miles south of Seville.
To me where I live is just a normal place but it is quite high up and I can on a good day see planes vapour trails for about 20 minutes after the intercontinental jets fly over in all directions except East. So that's about 200 miles at 30,000+ft.
I have lived here for 20 years and the weather effects have changed a lot since the mid 1990s, this year is very strange and the winter skies have been odd, that invest 90L, in March we had was amazing to be under like being under a huge spiral of high clouds for days.We have a network,(a Red in Spanish,} and report things that are strange, at the moment there is a lot of dust about and the country has just had a lot of record high temps well over 33/c,90,odd/F to most of you.Very High for April.
I'm thinking this year might be hell with searing hot winds and dust.Well over 40/c+
I/we also think there might be hurricane type activity off the coast of Morocco this year.
If you have any specific questions I'll try to get you answers on Europe from the residents point of view.Thanks for your interest.
XX/XX/AOI
MARK
14.22N/63.89W
Heavy tropical rains in Puerto Rico...
Quoting Hoff511:


I agree, but I wouldn't stretch to call that an "ocean" kayak. It was a rental, but a great day on the water. I like a 14'+ to do anything serious.


Maybe we can just meet in the middle and say its "Gulf-capable".
Quoting xcool:
It appears that Puerto Rico and all of the Antilles are getting some rain...Good evening cool..
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Tue, Apr 12, 2011.

As of Tue, 12 Apr 2011 22:30:01 GMT
Watching for the first tropical wave..
229. xcool
hydrus heyy :))
230. xcool
brb
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Watching for the first tropical wave..
coming soon CT i will let ya know
I wonder is that tropical moisture near the Lesser Antillies has a chance of eventually moving far enough west to create some showers/thundershowers in Florida to help break the drought in portions of the state? It's probably too early in the preseason for enough easterlies to develop to propel this moisture westward across the Caribbean, however.
Good evening, it's cold and humid in here.
Quoting DDR:
Sorry for Texas
Here in Trinidad and Tobago we've experience one of our wettest dry season ever,picked up almost 2 inches today,which is over the April average.

Hi, DDR.
I got 3/4" in the flatlands here.
Yesterday there was thunder rolling around to the southwest as well.
Very strange and wet DrySeason.

That image by Cybrteddy at post 228 is an interesting one too.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Watching for the first tropical wave..


I'd wager it's just a perturbation in the ITCZ (not to say that tropical waves can't ride the ITCZ, as they very obviously can), not a tropical wave.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good evening, it's cold and humid in here.
Cold and humid in P.R...The rum is good there too....And plentiful..:)
Quoting pottery:

Hi, DDR.
I got 3/4" in the flatlands here.
Yesterday there was thunder rolling around to the southwest as well.
Very strange and wet DrySeason.

That image by Cybrteddy at post 228 is an interesting one too.
I just aimed S.E. and kowtowed to you Calabash Tree..( Which is the source from which the known universe came from ).Glad you are getting rain...I think...:)
Impressive blob on the precipitable water imagery...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Watching for the first tropical wave..




here's a more recent, direct, look over Africa





not much to note, the thunderstorms that built up over w african coast are just daily build up, they're fading out now.

Here's what it looked like 4 hours ago




Quoting hurricaneben:


Yup, maybe a 20% chance of Arlene (or higher but I wouldn't hype too much) appearing in a week or two. Scary thing, I was predicted an April/May subtropical storm somewhere near Haiti or the SE Bahamas/T&C Islands and looks like this is our one if it does occur. Also I have predicted a major hurricane to hit LA/TX in August and a minimal hurricane in S Florida near September/October and already one of my predictions have a shot at panning out.

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Maybe.

I Give it a <4% Chance of Developing.

I give it a 0% chance. Models don't seem to care about it, the sheer is ridiculously high still




waters are warm enough, but there's not much depth to them, and therefore little tchp



hate to be the downcaster
anyone has a link for lightening strikes ??
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good evening, it's cold and humid in here.


How could it be cold and humid there? Are you in the mountains?
PRweather Puerto Rico Weather
Weather Update for Puerto Rico Wed-Thurs

img src="">

Link

Quoting TomTaylor:


hate to be the downcaster
One is not a downcaster if they are objective.

Also, as far as TCHP is concerned, it's true that it's currently minimal in not only that area but throughout the entirety of the basin. That being said, it's important to note that shallow entities (such as this one were it to hypothetically develop, which obviously isn't likely) do not need high TCHP values to develop and thrive. That only becomes a concern later in the season when more intense hurricanes tend to blossom and flourish.
Quoting Jedkins01:


How could it be cold and humid there? Are you in the mountains?

Yeah, I'm close to the mountainous parts of PR.
big t.storm right now at east brentwood,NY with lightning and very heavy rain!!
Rain rate has increased a bit...
Lightning
This could be interesting..Notice the sheer size of the low pressure area that the ECMWF model develops this week...Link
Quoting KoritheMan:

One is not a downcaster if they are objective.

Also, as far as TCHP is concerned, it's true that it's currently minimal in not only that area but throughout the entirety of the basin. That being said, it's important to note that shallow entities (such as this one were it to hypothetically develop, which obviously isn't likely) do not need high TCHP values to develop and thrive. That only becomes a concern later in the season when more intense hurricanes tend to blossom and flourish.
yea, good point

and yea, it isn't very likely at all



Must say though, it was fun pulling out all the tropical atlantic images again, first time I've had to do that this year
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Yeah, I'm close to the mountainous parts of PR.


Ohhh ok, that makes sense, how cool is it?
Quoting Skyepony:
Lightning
Very cool indeed...Thank you for posting it...:)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ohhh ok, that makes sense, how cool is it?

I'm not sure...but It's gotten warmer for the past 20 minutes. It was breezy earlier today.

EDIT: It's about 72 degrees outside (yes, that's cold for puerto rico) and 80 degrees inside.
Little to NO CHANCE of anything tropical developing. I just don't see much of any conditions that come close to allow any thing to develop.


Quoting Patrap:
WAVETRAK - Tropical Wave Tracking
If anyone is looking for a good satellite image over Africa to track potential tropical waves later in the season,
GO HERE!

It's HOURLY ir imagery over all of Africa. And its got a color scale.

Simply put the mouse over "IR COLOR", click "Meteo8" wait for the image to load, and then hit animate for a 30 hour animation.
I use NEXSAT for GOM Action...
Quoting Patrap:
I use NEXSAT for GOM Action...

updated the link, sorry wasn't working.

And I'd give the link a chance before tossing it, it's easily the best satellite coverage of Africa on the internet.

(from what I've seen so far)
XX/XX/AOI
MARK
14.31N/63.73W
big lightning storm at my house right now with hail to!!
Just two evenings ago, some of our members unfamiliar with the finer points of hydrology expressed strong doubts that flooding in the northern tier of states would take place, as they themselves saw no snow on their own doorsteps. Well, again, Mother Nature has had the last laugh; record to near-record flooding is taking place across Minnesota and North Dakota as the huge snowpack rapidly melts away.

Floods swamp ND, Minn. farmland

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.The Red River was spreading out in a record swath across broad stretches of rural North Dakota and Minnesota on Tuesday and rumbling toward a near-record crest in Grand Forks expected within three days.

The Red River and its tributaries have swamped expanses of land in the two states outside major cities, turning some spots to temporary islands reachable only by boat or tall vehicles as the water flows north into Manitoba, Canada.

The river crested Saturday at Fargo, North Dakota, with minor damage. Permanent levees and flood walls are expected to protect Grand Forks from a projected 52-foot crest that would be the second highest on record, officials said Tuesday. "The 52 feet forecasted by the weather service is not going to pose any problems for the city of Grand Forks," Grand Forks emergency manager Jim Campbell said on Tuesday. The permanent protections were built after a record crest in 1997 above 54 feet breached defenses and flooded Grand Forks and East Grand Forks, Minnesota. The river forms a boundary of North Dakota and Minnesota.

Flooding has closed numerous county and state roads near the river as well as a 30-mile stretch of Interstate 29 that runs parallel to the Red River in North Dakota. In Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, the Red River continued a gradual decline from Saturday's crest at 38.75 feet, which was the fourth highest on record. The river is expected to stay above 30 feet at Fargo for two weeks or more.

MSNBC Article...
50 years ago today,,a Russian test pilot Yuri Gagarin rode the Vostok Rocket to Orbit and returned safely to Earth for man's first Venture into Space.









Vostok 1 Launch April 12, 1961

Gagarin's flight lasted 108 minutes for a single orbit around the Earth. The mission was brought to a close with the de-orbit firing of the reentry rockets. Gagarin ejected from the capsule at 7 km altitude because the hard landing of the capsule was too dangerous for people. So he parachuted safely to the ground. April 12 has been celebrated as Cosmonautics Day in Russia every year since 1962. Vostok 1 was Gagarin's only flight.
Mississippi River Saturday here at Audubon Bend upriver NOLA 5 Miles..High Spring Crest


Patrap cool video I live at the very other end of the mighty mississippi where you can easily walk across on rocks
Minnesota,eh
Quoting TampaSpin:
Little to NO CHANCE of anything tropical developing. I just don't see much of any conditions that come close to allow any thing to develop.




Still need another 4-6 weeks at least.
An interesting--and slightly disturbing--Q&A with Joseph Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, in Salon today:

Is Japan's nuclear crisis really as severe as Chernobyl?

Q: I think it alarmed a lot of people that now suddenly the Japanese government is saying the nuclear crisis is on par with Chernobyl. Is that characterization accurate?

A: I think the Japanese authorities finally were forced to publicly recognize the severity of this disaster. They were trying to keep the public calm, to preserve some credibility for the nuclear power industry, so they tried to use reassuring language in their statements, and were hesitant to compare what was going on at Fukushima to Chernobyl. And, of course, it's not Chernobyl. It's different.

Chernobyl was an explosion that launched about a third of the reactor core thousands of feet into the air, injecting a hot plume of radioactivity into the upper atmosphere and contaminating large parts of Europe. That is not what's going on at Fukushima. But as an official said at the Tuesday press conference, Fukushima could ultimately release as much or more radiation than Chernobyl. It was that realization, I think, that was behind the re-categorization.

Q: Is the situation deteriorating at the plant?

A: The situation is deteriorating. I think that's the only fair way to describe it. You can forget words like "stable," or "under control." It's not. Every day brings a new risk of disaster, whether it's an aftershock that threatens to open up a crack in the containment vessels; or it's the water that's being streamed in, that could distort the fuel rods; or it's the leakage of this now-radioactive water into the ocean; or the fire that breaks out at the plant. Every day brings a new mini-crisis that could tip one or more of these reactors into meltdown. That's where we're at.

You have to understand that these reactors have been subjected to far more stress than they were ever designed to handle. And the stress continues. There have been hundreds of aftershocks. Just this week, there was a 6.6 quake. There are new predictions that the aftershocks could go on for some time, and be as powerful as a major earthquake. And, what [emergency workers] are doing is not in any safety manual. There isn't any Plan B that says, "Bring fire trucks to the beach and pump salt-water into the reactors," or "Rent giant concrete pumps and use them to spray water into the reactor."

Q: Would you say, right now, there's as big a risk of meltdown as there has been during this entire ordeal?

A: Yes. They've been struggling to keep the fuel rods covered with water. And they partially succeeded. Still, it's likely that all three reactors have suffered at least partial meltdowns. But we don't know for sure what's going on. You can't open the door and look in. It doesn't work that way.

Q: At this point, what do you think is the most likely scenario for how this situation will resolve itself?

A: I believe the most likely scenario is one or more meltdowns. I hope I'm wrong. But I think this is just beyond the capability of anyone to control.

Q: What would the implications be of a major meltdown for Japan?

A: If one of the fuel rod assemblies melted, it would likely breach the concrete containment vessel and spew radioactivity to the ground, air and water at a much higher level than we've seen so far. You would be looking at hundreds or thousands of square kilometers contaminated for decades or centuries. You'd be looking at a dead zone similar to the zone that's around Chernobyl. It's hard to predict the radius, but it could be 10 or 20 kilometers. The dead zone around Chernobyl is about 3,000 square kilometers.

Q: What's the best-case scenario? What will it take to get the plant stable and decommissioned, so it no longer poses a threat?

A: The best case scenario is you keep the rods covered with water for months, and that, sometime next year, you're able to do stabilization work. Then you could begin to bury the reactors. One way or the other, this ends with those reactors entombed under tons of sand and concrete, a permanent monument on the shoreline of Japan to this nuclear disaster.

Q: And once it's buried, the concrete would contain the radiation?

A: Yeah, for decades. The problem is the concrete would wear out before the radiation stops. You kick the can a century down the road.

Salon Article...
This buoy is very near the disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean...Station 42059
NDBC
Location: 15.054N 67.472W
Conditions as of:
Wed, 13 Apr 2011 00:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.94 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.2 F
Water Temperature: 80.8 F
Neo I know your last post was directed at me as for your post the record flooding you are talking about in cass county and clay county in in farmland partly do to the fact that the fargo moorhead area has grown extensively forcing the water further out do to dykes and just so you know the river floods every year the land along the red river valley is as flat as you see anywhere when the river comes out of its banks it just goes and goes and goes. check back next year and you will see the same thing for example look at devil lake which just gets bigger and bigger with no end in sight
261. jasonweatherman2010 1:05 AM GMT on April 13, 2011
big lightning storm at my house right now with hail to!!
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: April 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 236


Patrap yes live about a mile from the farthest point north the miss flows. like the eh part lol
I had a good friend from the Great Iron range in the service with me.

A North Stars Fans too,,back then.
Quoting eddy12:
Neo I know your last post was directed at me as for your post the record flooding you are talking about in cass county and clay county in in farmland partly do to the fact that the fargo moorhead area has grown extensively forcing the water further out do to dykes and just so you know the river floods every year the land along the red river valley is as flat as you see anywhere when the river comes out of its banks it just goes and goes and goes. check back next year and you will see the same thing for example look at devil lake which just gets bigger and bigger with no end in sight

According to the National Weather Service's River Observation page, there is major flooding occurring in the North Dakota counties of Richland, Cass, Traill, Grand Forks, Walsh, Ramsey, Nelson, Griggs, and Barnes, and in the Minnesota counties of Wilkon, Clay, Norman, and Polk, among others. In addition, there's major flooding going on in several Wisconsin and South Dakota counties. IOW, it's not limited to just the two counties you mentioned.

So far as the flooding happening ever year, that's true. But this year's record and near-record crests are by definition out of the ordinary. Unless, that is, the NWS is wrong and/or lying.
over on da range do you remember what town? the north stars were great we still wanna kill norm greene
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
anyone has a link for lightening strikes ??


USPLN




That was 1986 and Im Lucky to remember dat much.

Neo I agree with you the flooding this year is a little worse than normal but my point is this is not unusual it happens every year do to the geography
Patrap thank you sir I will stop taking up your time
Quoting Patrap:
Minnesota,eh
ya, you betcha!!
;)
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Actually , most people do not perceive the fact that hurricanes can form in April.

They honestly belive that Hurricanes only generate during the active months.


A hurricane can happen at anytime of year, all depends on conditions.
Quoting Neapolitan:
An interesting--and slightly disturbing--Q&A with Joseph Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, in Salon today:

Is Japan's nuclear crisis really as severe as Chernobyl?

Q: I think it alarmed a lot of people that now suddenly the Japanese government is saying the nuclear crisis is on par with Chernobyl. Is that characterization accurate?

A: I think the Japanese authorities finally were forced to publicly recognize the severity of this disaster. They were trying to keep the public calm, to preserve some credibility for the nuclear power industry, so they tried to use reassuring language in their statements, and were hesitant to compare what was going on at Fukushima to Chernobyl. And, of course, it's not Chernobyl. It's different.

Chernobyl was an explosion that launched about a third of the reactor core thousands of feet into the air, injecting a hot plume of radioactivity into the upper atmosphere and contaminating large parts of Europe. That is not what's going on at Fukushima. But as an official said at the Tuesday press conference, Fukushima could ultimately release as much or more radiation than Chernobyl. It was that realization, I think, that was behind the re-categorization.

Q: Is the situation deteriorating at the plant?

A: The situation is deteriorating. I think that's the only fair way to describe it. You can forget words like "stable," or "under control." It's not. Every day brings a new risk of disaster, whether it's an aftershock that threatens to open up a crack in the containment vessels; or it's the water that's being streamed in, that could distort the fuel rods; or it's the leakage of this now-radioactive water into the ocean; or the fire that breaks out at the plant. Every day brings a new mini-crisis that could tip one or more of these reactors into meltdown. That's where we're at.

You have to understand that these reactors have been subjected to far more stress than they were ever designed to handle. And the stress continues. There have been hundreds of aftershocks. Just this week, there was a 6.6 quake. There are new predictions that the aftershocks could go on for some time, and be as powerful as a major earthquake. And, what [emergency workers] are doing is not in any safety manual. There isn't any Plan B that says, "Bring fire trucks to the beach and pump salt-water into the reactors," or "Rent giant concrete pumps and use them to spray water into the reactor."

Q: Would you say, right now, there's as big a risk of meltdown as there has been during this entire ordeal?

A: Yes. They've been struggling to keep the fuel rods covered with water. And they partially succeeded. Still, it's likely that all three reactors have suffered at least partial meltdowns. But we don't know for sure what's going on. You can't open the door and look in. It doesn't work that way.

Q: At this point, what do you think is the most likely scenario for how this situation will resolve itself?

A: I believe the most likely scenario is one or more meltdowns. I hope I'm wrong. But I think this is just beyond the capability of anyone to control.

Q: What would the implications be of a major meltdown for Japan?

A: If one of the fuel rod assemblies melted, it would likely breach the concrete containment vessel and spew radioactivity to the ground, air and water at a much higher level than we've seen so far. You would be looking at hundreds or thousands of square kilometers contaminated for decades or centuries. You'd be looking at a dead zone similar to the zone that's around Chernobyl. It's hard to predict the radius, but it could be 10 or 20 kilometers. The dead zone around Chernobyl is about 3,000 square kilometers.

Q: What's the best-case scenario? What will it take to get the plant stable and decommissioned, so it no longer poses a threat?

A: The best case scenario is you keep the rods covered with water for months, and that, sometime next year, you're able to do stabilization work. Then you could begin to bury the reactors. One way or the other, this ends with those reactors entombed under tons of sand and concrete, a permanent monument on the shoreline of Japan to this nuclear disaster.

Q: And once it's buried, the concrete would contain the radiation?

A: Yeah, for decades. The problem is the concrete would wear out before the radiation stops. You kick the can a century down the road.

Salon Article...


It would have suited me just fine to have never read this...
Quoting Neapolitan:

According to the National Weather Service's River Observation page, there is major flooding occurring in the North Dakota counties of Richland, Cass, Traill, Grand Forks, Walsh, Ramsey, Nelson, Griggs, and Barnes, and in the Minnesota counties of Wilkon, Clay, Norman, and Polk, among others. In addition, there's major flooding going on in several Wisconsin and South Dakota counties. IOW, it's not limited to just the two counties you mentioned.

So far as the flooding happening ever year, that's true. But this year's record and near-record crests are by definition out of the ordinary. Unless, that is, the NWS is wrong and/or lying.

How does this year compare to last year, Last year many northern states got record snow, some did this year also. Was there record flooding or near record flooding last year? Is this the start of things to come for the following years?
For those of you in South Florida, do you remember anything from Hurricane Rita back in '05. I know this is a stupid question but I know the hurricane missed us narrowly although there were reports of outer rain band activity in the area. Do you remember anything from South Florida/FL Keys?
Aussie I can't remember about last year that area floods every year it is like pouring water out on your kitchen counter the land is literally that flat
Quoting presslord:


It would have suited me just fine to have never read this...

I agree. A bad situation that can go either way.
I'm out for the evening, but before I go, I wanted to mention that despite a cool beginning to the year, things have been pretty warm since mid February across the U.S.. According to the National Climatic Data Center, since February 11th, record daily high and high minimum temperatures have outnumbered record daily lows and low maximum temps by 8,790 to 3,251, a warm/cool ratio of just over 2.7-to-1. For the year, thanks to that cool start, record highs outnumber record lows by 10,264 to 7,123, a warm/cool ratio of "just" 1.44-to-1. And so far, April has been very warm, with record highs outnumbering record lows by 2,994 to 599, a ratio of 4.99-to-1.

Toasty, toasty, toasty...
Quoting AussieStorm:

How does this year compare to last year, Last year many northern states got record snow, some did this year also. Was there record flooding or near record flooding last year? Is this the start of things to come for the following years?


Here are some links for you to get a idea.

I live and Grand Forks, so I have a reason to watch this flooding thing.

Grand Forks
Link

Fargo
http://nd.water.usgs.gov/floodtracking/charts/050 54000.html

Link This link is US Severe Weather from WU, I think the fact that most of ND is green should say something about how "abnormal" the flooding is. Very little of the flooding is do to Dikes.

This link will get you to the main page and you can look at data for the region
Link
Although I must add the flooding works two ways the floods destroy some of their property but also gives them some of the richest farm land in the world if not the richest farm land in the world
Good evening all,
I've been lurking from work the past few months.

Everyone is playing so nicely this evening; it is quite refreshing indeed.

I just stopped in to make sure the password was still working in the new format. I wanted to assure everything was in order before the season. (Just being a bit pro-active, or as Pat says 'preparedness'.)

Spring came WAY early to 70002 this year. The calender said 'not yet', but the garden sure knew different. The pool is already up into the 80F, and I see the GOMEX is getting warm early as well. That does not bode well for the season. ...but things can change.
Wow we get a little bit of eye candy in the tropics,and people start acting a fool.Don't worry.The real stuff will come in May or June or something like that.Be patient.
Wow... only four days since I discovered my wireless wasn't working.... it's amazing how much blood, sweat, tears, and pulled-out hair you have to give to get one wireless router up and running....

Just wanted to mention that we are having our own little drought here... January was pretty much par for the course, but since then we've had very dry frontal passages, and no rain to speak of since about mid-February. It's almost 15 April and tomorrow's frontal passage is as close as we are likely to get to any moisture, though there doesn't seem to be that high a chance. Lots of high pressure and windy conditions don't lend themselves to rain around here.
Dust Bowl Conditions on Plains: Problem for US, Globe

By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist
Apr 12, 2011; 1:03 PM ETShare


farmer Jim Freudenberger surveys his wheat crop in Coyle, Okla. Freudenberger is among thousands of farmers in the South dealing with a severe drought that has choked back crops, forcing some to plow up what won't grow months before harvest. (AP Photo/Justin Juozapavicius)
Following what has been the driest four-month period since before the 1930s Dust Bowl, hope is dwindling, if not already lost, for wheat farmers of Oklahoma and Texas who desperately need rain. The forecast is not looking promising.

Any hits to U.S. agriculture amid rising food and gas prices will only add to the strain on the wallets of families and individuals across the nation and the globe, with the U.S. being the world's largest exporter of wheat and corn.

All Eyes on Kansas Now

According to AccuWeather.com Agricultural Meteorologist Dale Mohler, the percentage of U.S. wheat considered "poor" or "very poor" increased from 32 to 36 in just the past week due to lack of rain in the southern Plains and Southwest.

Reports have even said that many wheat farmers have considered switching to another crop altogether this year.

"There will not be much of a crop in western Texas and western Oklahoma," Mohler said, "Now the focus is on Kansas and eastern Oklahoma."
As AccuWeather.com Staff Writer Gina Cherundolo pointed out, "Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas combined produce more than half of the nation's winter wheat crop, with Kansas alone producing about a quarter."

Mohler said that while there will be storm systems moving through the Plains over the next two weeks, rainfall may not be widespread enough across the areas that need it most to improve the situation.

"Kansas has been very dry over the last six weeks," Mohler stated. "Some of the storms will bring rain, but any improvement may only be temporary."

A storm system set to push through the Plains later this week will bring the next opportunity for rain. Early indications point to areas from north-central and northeastern Kansas into Nebraska and Iowa for the most substantial rainfall, which could be on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch with locally higher amounts possible.

Several more storm systems will track across the Plains late this weekend into next week. Eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma may benefit from at least one of these storms, while areas farther west may miss out on rainfall of significance.

Quoting hurricaneben:
For those of you in South Florida, do you remember anything from Hurricane Rita back in '05. I know this is a stupid question but I know the hurricane missed us narrowly although there were reports of outer rain band activity in the area. Do you remember anything from South Florida/FL Keys?

Are you talking about 1905 or 2005? You have to be a little more specific when I am on. Rita reeked a little havoc with South Florida, but not much. A lot of power outages, though. They keys got a lot more. If I remember, US1 was flooded. It passed through the Keys, but not a tremendous amount of damage in South Florida.
April 12, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
Just two evenings ago, some of our members unfamiliar with the finer points of hydrology expressed strong doubts that flooding in the northern tier of states would take place, as they themselves saw no snow on their own doorsteps. Well, again, Mother Nature has had the last laugh; record to near-record flooding is taking place across Minnesota and North Dakota as the huge snowpack rapidly melts away.

Floods swamp ND, Minn. farmland

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.The Red River was spreading out in a record swath across broad stretches of rural North Dakota and Minnesota on Tuesday and rumbling toward a near-record crest in Grand Forks expected within three days.

The Red River and its tributaries have swamped expanses of land in the two states outside major cities, turning some spots to temporary islands reachable only by boat or tall vehicles as the water flows north into Manitoba, Canada.

The river crested Saturday at Fargo, North Dakota, with minor damage. Permanent levees and flood walls are expected to protect Grand Forks from a projected 52-foot crest that would be the second highest on record, officials said Tuesday. "The 52 feet forecasted by the weather service is not going to pose any problems for the city of Grand Forks," Grand Forks emergency manager Jim Campbell said on Tuesday. The permanent protections were built after a record crest in 1997 above 54 feet breached defenses and flooded Grand Forks and East Grand Forks, Minnesota. The river forms a boundary of North Dakota and Minnesota.

Flooding has closed numerous county and state roads near the river as well as a 30-mile stretch of Interstate 29 that runs parallel to the Red River in North Dakota. In Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, the Red River continued a gradual decline from Saturday's crest at 38.75 feet, which was the fourth highest on record. The river is expected to stay above 30 feet at Fargo for two weeks or more.

MSNBC Article...



This is the 3rd year in a row we have had major flooding in Fargo, this is bizzare.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow we get a little bit of eye candy in the tropics,and people start acting a fool.Don't worry.The real stuff will come in May or June or something like that.Be patient.


Ya I know nobody should be acting all crazy, but this is finally the first interesting feature related to this upcoming hurricane season, well discounting that unprecented Invest 90L near the Canary Islands roughly a month ago. But yeah I know the real action will kick in by Early June and by then we probably will have seen our first named storm 'Arlene' already.
Quoting hurricaneben:
For those of you in South Florida, do you remember anything from Hurricane Rita back in '05. I know this is a stupid question but I know the hurricane missed us narrowly although there were reports of outer rain band activity in the area. Do you remember anything from South Florida/FL Keys?


I lived in Florida City during Rita. Didn't experience much other than tropical storm force winds for a short period of time. No damage or power outages occurred in my neighborhood.
Quoting presslord:


It would have suited me just fine to have never read this...


There are several science based sites with commentary on the Japanese Nuclear disaster, such as MIT's Nuclear Science and Engineering Department. These are far more informative.

I would cross reference any news source against these science science sites to ensure accuracy, preferably several of them to ensure you're getting more than one analysis on the situation.
Quoting presslord:


It would have suited me just fine to have never read this...


Ah come on I've outlined most of this a couple of weeks ago. Now it's just publicly being admitted, no difference either way. It's always better to be informed then not to be, unless your one of those who thinks preparing for the future is dumb; then it doesn't really matter either way.
Re. Rita... that storm was just cranking up as it went through the Keys, IIRC. Got started in the SW Bahamas, but I think it was still pretty small and just powering over into hurricane force winds at the time. What I do recall is that it got organized real fast, just like Katrina, as it came up on 80 W.


The Bahamas got massively lucky in 05.... three of the season's worst passed through our waters, but we missed the worst of each of them. I think the Keys got impacts from all three also, but nowhere as bad as it could have been.
AOI/XX/XL
my picks the caps,bruins,sabres,pens,canucks,sharks,coyotes,duc ks
April, 2004 SST


April, 2011 SST
Local news here in Orlando just said the SST's around FL are about the warmest they've ever been for this time in April. We also recorded out 4th straight 90 plus day here in orlando. Longest 90 degree stretch since early Oct. 2010. Will be interesting to see how this season performs as i suspect that over the next several weeks our second invest will occur in the Caribbean.
I think during 2004 we had nuetral conditions during that hurricane season. This may not bode well for the US this year. Sorry guys this year maybe be bad for many.
Highs could top 95 Saturday here in C FL. OUCH!
Quoting Orcasystems:
For those interested (and know that Hockey is a sport) I have put my picks for the first round on my blog.. feel free to post your own selections, or objections to mine.

Other then that... spring appears to be here..I have to mow the lawn :(

I only know 1 team, Calgary Flames, I was given a hat by my cousin living in Calgary, I wear it often.
Quoting RastaSteve:
I think during 2004 we had nuetral conditions during that hurricane season. This may not bode well for the US this year. Sorry guys this year maybe be bad for many.


May 2004 was one of the 4th driest May in S.Florida History.

Reminds me a lot about the Jim Lushine theory.
Quoting Orcasystems:


WUmail me..I will send you a proper one :)

you have WU-mail
Quoting BenBIogger:


May 2004 was one of the 4th driest May in S.Florida History.

Reminds me a lot about the Jim Lushine theory.


What theory is that? I know it was very dry here that year but quickly ended up being one of our wettest here in C FL.
Aussie do they play hockey in australia? or have you ever seen it played?
Deadliest Catch has got to be the best show on TV.
Quoting RastaSteve:


What theory is that? I know it was very dry here that year but quickly ended up being one of our wettest here in C FL.




Link
Quoting eddy12:
Aussie do they play hockey in australia? or have you ever seen it played?

we get NHL here live almost daily, like MLB. It is played here, we do have 2 or 3 ice rinks here in Sydney, 1 is near my work, I have ice skated before, yes i fell on my butt. I heard on the radio there is both men and women national comps.
Quoting BenBIogger:


May 2004 was one of the 4th driest May in S.Florida History.

Reminds me a lot about the Jim Lushine theory.


Just googled it. That theory does seem to be correct.
Aussie thank you I did not know that
I have found my new favorite loop. Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sure, why not?
No, I will not send anyone else a hat.
I have been to Aus.. one of the friendliest places I have ever been.

You have WU-mail
Been awhile since I last check on the IOD. Can somebody provide me with a link to the current IOD chart?
Quoting AussieStorm:

You have WU-mail


and you have two :)
Quoting eddy12:
Aussie thank you I did not know that

No worries mate! If you want to know anymore info about Australia, just ask and I'll try to answer.
Quoting Orcasystems:


and you have two :)

Right back at ya.
Aussie thank you would love to visit there someday everyone says it is great
Quoting eddy12:
Aussie thank you would love to visit there someday everyone says it is great

Here's a link to Ice Hockey Australia.
You better wait till your US$$$$ gets stronger. US$1 = AU$1.0447
Quoting Orcasystems:


I was with the Canadian Navy when we went there for their Naval 74th anniversary. Brisbane, Sidney, & Melbourne.. what a hoot :) Then off to Wellington, Napier, and Auckland.

Aussies are the friendliest people in the world, along with the Kiwi's.

I remember being on a Sydney ferry with my cousins back then, we did a tour around all the navy warships and ran into USS Missouri. it damaged our ferry but only left a scratch on the mighty USS Missouri.

I'm off to work. enjoy your evening.
333. JRRP
Quoting AussieStorm:

I remember being on a Sydney ferry with my cousins back then, we did a tour around all the navy warships and ran into USS Missouri. it damaged our ferry but only left a scratch on the mighty USS Missouri.

I'm off to work. enjoy your evening.


U.S. warships are heavily armored and heavily armed.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Here's a link to Ice Hockey Australia.
You better wait till your US$$$$ gets stronger. US$1 = AU$1.0447



lol I don't see the dollar getting stronger anytime soon, I could be wrong cause I'm no economist. But things are still shaky here in America, thanks to declining leadership and government.

BTW, I'm very surprised hockey is played at all in Australia. I learned something new! I never woulda guessed!
I think my us dollar is worth about .80 cents us and going down lol
338. xcool


Africa Intertropical Front
Reporting another 7.2 on Japan??2011/04/13 10:07:20に発生した地震
地震発生日時: 2011/04/13 10:07:20
震源地: 福島県沖
震源の深さ: 10km
マグニチュード: M7.2
最大震度: 震度4
Map DataImagery ©2011 TerraMetrics - Terms of UseMap DataCloseImagery ©2011 TerraMetrics

Map
TerrainSatellite
45°Labels各地の震度と到達予想時刻
エリア 震度 到達予想時刻
宮城県中部 震度3から震度4 不明

緊急地震速報発信状況
コード番号 発信時刻 地震発生からの経過時間(秒) 北緯 東経 震源地 震源の深さ マグニチュード 最大震度
1 10:08:12 52 37.8 140.9 福島県浜通り 10km M7.2 震度6強
2 10:08:14 54 37.6 142.4 福島県沖 10km M7.2 震度4
3 10:08:14 54 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7 震度3
4 10:08:20 60 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7.6 震度4
5 10:08:26 66 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M8 震度5弱
6 10:08:27 67 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M8.1 震度5弱
7 10:08:28 68 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M8.2 震度5弱
8 10:08:48 88 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7.9 震度4
9 10:09:08 108 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7.2 震度4
10 10:09:28 128 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7.2 震度4
11 (最終報) 10:09:35 135 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7.2 震度4
Link
Quoting Gearsts:
Reporting another 7.2 on Japan??2011/04/13 10:07:20に発生した地震
地震発生日時: 2011/04/13 10:07:20
震源地: 福島県沖
震源の深さ: 10km
マグニチュード: M7.2
最大震度: 震度4
Map DataImagery ©2011 TerraMetrics - Terms of UseMap DataCloseImagery ©2011 TerraMetrics

Map
TerrainSatellite
45°Labels各地の震度と到達予想時刻
エリア 震度 到達予想時刻
宮城県中部 震度3から震度4 不明

緊急地震速報発信状況
コード番号 発信時刻 地震発生からの経過時間(秒) 北緯 東経 震源地 震源の深さ マグニチュード 最大震度
1 10:08:12 52 37.8 140.9 福島県浜通り 10km M7.2 震度6強
2 10:08:14 54 37.6 142.4 福島県沖 10km M7.2 震度4
3 10:08:14 54 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7 震度3
4 10:08:20 60 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7.6 震度4
5 10:08:26 66 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M8 震度5弱
6 10:08:27 67 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M8.1 震度5弱
7 10:08:28 68 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M8.2 震度5弱
8 10:08:48 88 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7.9 震度4
9 10:09:08 108 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7.2 震度4
10 10:09:28 128 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7.2 震度4
11 (最終報) 10:09:35 135 37.5 143.8 福島県沖 10km M7.2 震度4
Link


USGS doesn't have it yet.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


USGS doesn't have it yet.


I cant find any evidence of that 7.2 of the coast of Japan this morning so it might have been some sort of false alarm. There was a 4.7 at about 5.41 am and the latest 4.5 was at about 7.32 am but on land to the north of the main quake areas of the last few days.

There seems to be a line of activity stretching from the Tokyo bay area approximately due north to the point of this mornings quake at approx 39.5 degrees north and all this activity might be leading to some kind of new fracture line north, south down the east coast of Japan. Just a thought.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


There are several science based sites with commentary on the Japanese Nuclear disaster, such as MIT's Nuclear Science and Engineering Department. These are far more informative.

I would cross reference any news source against these science science sites to ensure accuracy, preferably several of them to ensure you're getting more than one analysis on the situation.

It's always definitely a good idea to gather information from several reputable sources no matter what the subject. But I don't know that the MIT site is "far more informative"; Joseph Cirincione--the man who provided the answers to the Q&A I posted--is perhaps as qualified to speak about the subject of nuclear policy as anyone. Of course, that Q&A was geared for the popular press so didn't delve into the heavy-duty physics of the Fukushima situation; it was more a distillation, a listing of the bullet points--but that certainly makes it no less valid.
343. IKE
5 day QPF....


frustrating -- very hard to find anything about last evenings Earthquake in Japan.... Why would that be?

Link (youtube)

Link (Reuters)

I had to specifically type April 13 for the Reuters article to show up - nada on googlenews -- odd eh?

oh yes Good Morning
Quoting surfmom:
frustrating -- very hard to find anything about last evenings Earthquake in Japan.... Why would that be?

Link (youtube)

Link (Reuters)

I had to specifically type April 13 for the Reuters article to show up - nada on googlenews -- odd eh?

oh yes Good Morning


Good morning,
I can understand your quandary here,
I saw the Spanish news at 8am local time in Europe and they reported the Quake at I think 7+,
Then I looked for it and as you can see nothing, plus others have had the same result.
Maybe; just maybe it did some sort of damage that warrants covering up for a while?
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011


VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE KS...ERN
OK...FAR SW MO AND FAR NW AR...


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...MID-MO VALLEY...OZARKS AND ARKLATEX...

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SRN PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS/MID-MO VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CLOSE OFF OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THE EXIT REGION OF A
70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION CREATING
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THE
SFC...A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN QUICKLY ACROSS
CNTRL KS AT MIDDAY MOVING NWD INTO NEB. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
SHOULD FIRST OCCUR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
DEVELOPING STRONG CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SEWD INTO
CNTRL TO ERN KS AND ECNTRL OK ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
A DRYLINE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 00Z FRIDAY SHOW
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 J/KG IN ECNTRL KS TO 2500 TO 3000 J/KG IN
ECNTRL OK. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 65 KT
WILL CREATE A THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA
IN SE KS...ERN OK...FAR NW AR AND FAR SW MO. THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ON THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ERN OK FROM 00Z TO 03Z SHOW 0-3 KM
STORM RELATIVELY HELICITIES OF 350 TO 450 M2/S2 WHICH WILL MAKE AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT
SHOULD BE CONDITIONAL UPON MOISTURE RETURN AND STORM MODE.
SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT INSTEAD OF THE TENDENCY FOR DISCRETE
CONVECTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z TO 00Z SHOW A
STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SWD EXTENT IN NE TX. DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AN MCS
IN THE OZARKS AND DRIVING THIS FEATURE EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE MAY CONTINUE AS FAR EAST AS SCNTRL MO AND ECNTRL AR
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST.

Reed Timmer should get nice Tornado pics near Tulsa, OK tomorrow.
Japan Meteorological Agency has a record of 7 aftershocks on 4/13, but none of that intensity.

Here's a link to the site: JMA

Also, here's a link to USGS listing all of the 5-plus Earthquakes world wide in chronological order (again nothing of 7 magnitude recently): USGS
350. P451
It has to be alarming that the intensity of the quakes is actually increasing again. That fault line is not done. Is it slowly unzipping? Is this one of those incredulous events of history where there will be one gigantic follow up quake that sees an entire chunk of land slide into the sea? You got to wonder about things like that.

Any other large quake's aftershocks would be down in the 2's by now.

Japan's? 4.5M+ has been steady and frequent ever since the primary event! Not to mention constant 6's and now 7's again. This has to be "unheard of" in today's modern times.

I doubt anyone including the "experts" in the field have any real idea as to what is occurring and where it is leading. Who could fault them for that? I don't think anyone has ever seen such a continuous event such as this.



92S
A total of 713 oil platform workers were evacuated on Tuesday when a semi-submersible residence began to collapse into the Gulf of Mexico, said state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). No oil was leaked in the incident and no injuries reported at the Flotel Jupiter platform which housed workers about 80 kilometers off the coast of Campeche state in the Gulf of Mexico. Initially 638 workers were evacuated earlier on Tuesday after water entered part of the facility and it began to lean to one side, but Pemex said by the afternoon all 713 workers on board the platform had been evacuated. After several attempts to rescue the facility, the platform late Ton uesday "turned over and partially sank," said Pemex.
Surfmom this is all I can find for todays date-

Newest Earthquake Items
Recent Worldwide Earthquakes >4.5M From USGS
Mag Location Date
4.6 Off the East Coast of Honshu, Japan 04/13/11
4.7 South of Panama 04/13/11
4.7 Banda Sea 04/13/11
4.5 Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan 04/13/11
4.5 Eastern Honshu, Japan 04/13/11
4.7 Off the East Coast of Honshu, Japan 04/13/11
5.3 Virgin Islands Region 04/13/11
4.9 New Britain Region, Papua New Guinea 04/13/11
5.0 Santa Cruz Islands 04/13/11
5.2 Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan 04/13/11
5.2 Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan 04/12/11
Quoting BahaHurican:
Re. Rita... that storm was just cranking up as it went through the Keys, IIRC. Got started in the SW Bahamas, but I think it was still pretty small and just powering over into hurricane force winds at the time. What I do recall is that it got organized real fast, just like Katrina, as it came up on 80 W.


The Bahamas got massively lucky in 05.... three of the season's worst passed through our waters, but we missed the worst of each of them. I think the Keys got impacts from all three also, but nowhere as bad as it could have been.
Good morning all. I have been having a bit of trouble with the blog this morning. I just hope it is resolved now. What I remember from '05 season is that someone signed us up for Hurricane of the Month club LOL. Though it was no laughing matter. As to Rita, I went back into my business records and determined that the Keys had a mandatory evaucation for guests on 09/18, residents on 09/19 and on the 21st residents allowed back in and guest allowed back on 09/23. I don't remember too much about it so I will guess that it was a "miss" probably bringing us some nasty weather,maybe some downed trees, but that is about it. The older I get the more I forget:) Wilma was the one that really wreacked havoc here in the Keys. I guess I really need something earth shattering to my life in order to remember it. That was Wilma!
Here's something that will make your little hearts go pitter-pat:

Strain from Japan earthquake may lead to more seismic trouble, scientists say

Washington Post - With soldiers still looking for the bodies of thousands of people who vanished in the killer wave a month ago, Japan is coping with the painful reality that it sits in a seismic bull’s-eye.

A new calculation by American and Japanese scientists has concluded that the March 11 event might have heightened the stress on faults bracketing the ruptured segment of the Japan Trench. “There’s quite a bit of real estate on which stress has increased, by our calculations,” said U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Ross Stein. “The possibility of getting large, late aftershocks to the north and south of the main shock is real.”

Stein and two colleagues, including lead author Shinji Toda of Kyoto University, are not making a formal prediction of another big earthquake. But their research paper, which has been submitted to the journal Earth, Planets and Space, contends that the magnitude-9.0 “Tohoku earthquake” (Tohoku is the region in northern Japan closest to the epicenter) shifted stress to the north and south, including onto a section of the Japan Trench east of Tokyo.

“That section of the subduction zone is clearly loaded,” said Chris Goldfinger, an Oregon State University seismologist who was not part of the new research.

“It will take probably a decade before this aftershock sequence is over,” Stein said. “The watchword in Tokyo should be long-term vigilance. Nobody should think this should go away in a few weeks or a few months.”

During the past month, the aftershocks have decreased in number and will continue to do so. But scientists say the range of magnitudes does not change, and thus a large aftershock, or even another “main shock” on a nearby fault, is possible.

Hanging over Japan is the worrisome example of Indonesia. Three months after the Dec. 26, 2004, magnitude-9.1 quake that generated a catastrophic tsunami, the adjacent segment of the fault broke again, this time in a magnitude-8.7 earthquake. The fault system has since generated several more powerful earthquakes.

Washington Post Article...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's something that will make your little hearts go pitter-pat:


Strain from Japan earthquake may lead to more seismic trouble, scientists say

Washington Post - With soldiers still looking for the bodies of thousands of people who vanished in the killer wave a month ago, Japan is coping with the painful reality that it sits in a seismic bull’s-eye.

A new calculation by American and Japanese scientists has concluded that the March 11 event might have heightened the stress on faults bracketing the ruptured segment of the Japan Trench. “There’s quite a bit of real estate on which stress has increased, by our calculations,” said U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Ross Stein. “The possibility of getting large, late aftershocks to the north and south of the main shock is real.”

Stein and two colleagues, including lead author Shinji Toda of Kyoto University, are not making a formal prediction of another big earthquake. But their research paper, which has been submitted to the journal Earth, Planets and Space, contends that the magnitude-9.0 “Tohoku earthquake” (Tohoku is the region in northern Japan closest to the epicenter) shifted stress to the north and south, including onto a section of the Japan Trench east of Tokyo.

“That section of the subduction zone is clearly loaded,” said Chris Goldfinger, an Oregon State University seismologist who was not part of the new research.

“It will take probably a decade before this aftershock sequence is over,” Stein said. “The watchword in Tokyo should be long-term vigilance. Nobody should think this should go away in a few weeks or a few months.”

During the past month, the aftershocks have decreased in number and will continue to do so. But scientists say the range of magnitudes does not change, and thus a large aftershock, or even another “main shock” on a nearby fault, is possible.

Hanging over Japan is the worrisome example of Indonesia. Three months after the Dec. 26, 2004, magnitude-9.1 quake that generated a catastrophic tsunami, the adjacent segment of the fault broke again, this time in a magnitude-8.7 earthquake. The fault system has since generated several more powerful earthquakes.

Washington Post Article...


YIKES! "Another main shock" quote on quote by Oregon State!
358. IKE
JACKSON, Miss. April 12 (BestWire) — After a year-long dispute, Mississippi
Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney granted approval to two members of the
Allstate Insurance Group to raise homeowners rates by a statewide average of
19.4%.

Under terms of orders signed by Chaney, Allstate which had said
it would nonrenew at least 18,000 policyholders, will limit nonrenewals to
approximately 5,000. The carrier consented to retain all homeowners who agree to
also purchase automobile insurance from the company, and the discount for buying
both homeowners and auto insurance will increase to 25% from the current 15%,
Allstate spokeswoman Allison Hatcher said.

Allstate also agreed to drop
no more than 150 policyholders in coastal counties, Hatcher said.

The
decision to not renew policies is difficult, Hatcher said, but "necessary for
Allstate to remain financially strong."
Wow the Northwest Carribean shot up and the 26 degree line continues to bounce north and south all along the southern Gulf of Mexico. Though THCP is very low, but it is beginning to aquire some depth to it in the Northwestern Carribean.

April 4th-11th



Look at the difference in April 12th to the last shot of the loop above of April 11th.

Quoting ILwthrfan:
Wow the Northwest Carribean shot up and the 26 degree line continues is bouncing north and south all along the southern Gulf of Mexico. Though THCP is very low, but it is beginning to aquire some depth to it in the Norwestern Carribean.

April 4th-11th



Look at the difference in April 12th to the last shot of the loop above of April 11th.

That area is usually the warmest all year round, and where we see the first development of the season.
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's always definitely a good idea to gather information from several reputable sources no matter what the subject. But I don't know that the MIT site is "far more informative"; Joseph Cirincione--the man who provided the answers to the Q&A I posted--is perhaps as qualified to speak about the subject of nuclear policy as anyone. Of course, that Q&A was geared for the popular press so didn't delve into the heavy-duty physics of the Fukushima situation; it was more a distillation, a listing of the bullet points--but that certainly makes it no less valid.

This is also a good place to go for daily updates of Fukushima.
Quoting hydrus:
That area is usually the warmest all year round, and where we see the first development of the season.


On the news last night here in Orlando the mets said that the SST's around FL are close to the warmest ever for so early in the season. Ocean temps are closing in on 80 in Brevard County which that normally doesn't occur until mid to late May. Just puts into perspective how hot it's been around FL lately.
Quoting Skyepony:
A total of 713 oil platform workers were evacuated on Tuesday when a semi-submersible residence began to collapse into the Gulf of Mexico, said state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). No oil was leaked in the incident and no injuries reported at the Flotel Jupiter platform which housed workers about 80 kilometers off the coast of Campeche state in the Gulf of Mexico. Initially 638 workers were evacuated earlier on Tuesday after water entered part of the facility and it began to lean to one side, but Pemex said by the afternoon all 713 workers on board the platform had been evacuated. After several attempts to rescue the facility, the platform late Ton uesday "turned over and partially sank," said Pemex.

This is not what is needed before this forthcoming hurricane season, another oil platform problem. Lets hope they have done everything right unlike BP did last year.
Quoting RastaSteve:


On the news last night here in Orlando the mets said that the SST's around FL are close to the warmest ever for so early in the season. Ocean temps are closing in on 80 in Brevard County which that normally doesn't occur until mid to late May. Just puts into perspective how hot it's been around FL lately.
It does look warmer than normal..I am from South Florida originally. 1995 was a bit warmer than normal also. I would have to research to see what years were similar to this one.
Another nasty squall line Friday and Saturday..This truly has been a stormy start to the spring season up here..
Quoting Gearsts:
Reporting another 7.2 on Japan??Earthquake that occurred at 10:07:20 on Wed, 13 Apr 2011.


Date: 2011/04/13 10:07:20
Location: Off the coast of Fukushima
Depth: 10km
Magnitude: M7.2
Japanese seismic scale (Max): 4

Arrival time and Seismic scale

Area Japanese seismic scale Arrival Time
3 - 4 Unknown
Early Earthquake Warning Announce Status

Announce No. Announce Time Elapsed Time (sec) Latitude Longitude Location Depth Magnitude Japanese seismic scale (Max)
1 10:08:12 52 37.8 140.9 Hamado-ri, Fukushima 10km M7.2 6-upper
2 10:08:14 54 37.6 142.4 Off the coast of Fukushima 10km M7.2 4
3 10:08:14 54 37.5 143.8 Off the coast of Fukushima 10km M7 3
4 10:08:20 60 37.5 143.8 Off the coast of Fukushima 10km M7.6 4
5 10:08:26 66 37.5 143.8 Off the coast of Fukushima 10km M8 5-lower
6 10:08:27 67 37.5 143.8 Off the coast of Fukushima 10km M8.1 5-lower
7 10:08:28 68 37.5 143.8 Off the coast of Fukushima 10km M8.2 5-lower
8 10:08:48 88 37.5 143.8 Off the coast of Fukushima 10km M7.9 4
9 10:09:08 108 37.5 143.8 Off the coast of Fukushima 10km M7.2 4
10 10:09:28 128 37.5 143.8 Off the coast of Fukushima 10km M7.2 4
11 (Last) 10:09:35 135 37.5 143.8 Off the coast of Fukushima 10km M7.2 4
Link


This is the closest info i can find time wise on the JMA website.

10:08 JST 13 Apr 2011 36.9N 140.7E 10 km 5.8 Fukushima-ken Hamadori

I don't know where they got the 7.2 from. False Info????
The GFS shows very wet and stormy conditions for the central and eastern U.S...Link
#361: Thanks Aussie Storm.
This is of note from that site:

Sunday, April 10, 11:30 p.m. ET, Tokyo

"Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) announced that it finished discharging low-level contaminated water to the sea (about 10,000 tons). The company said it is now ready to pump out highly contaminated water (about 60,000 tons) from the basement of unit 2's reactor building to a condenser, which can hold 3,000 tons; eventually, this water will be pumped to a centralized waste treatment facility which can hold about 30,000 tons. A tanker or mega-float is still needed to store the rest of the water.

Huh?
Quoting Chicklit:
#361: Thanks Aussie Storm.
This is of note from that site:

Sunday, April 10, 11:30 p.m. ET, Tokyo

"Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) announced that it finished discharging low-level contaminated water to the sea (about 10,000 tons). The company said it is now ready to pump out highly contaminated water (about 60,000 tons) from the basement of unit 2's reactor building to a condenser, which can hold 3,000 tons; eventually, this water will be pumped to a centralized waste treatment facility which can hold about 30,000 tons. A tanker or mega-float is still needed to store the rest of the water.

Huh?

Yeah i read that, i thought the same thing,,,, does it mean they are willing to risk a crew on a tanker to fill it up with highly toxic discharge water. Where are they going to take this water?
Quoting TampaSpin:
USGS Updates Magnitude of Japan’s 2011 Tohoku Earthquake to 9.0
Released: 3/14/2011 5:35:00 PM
I thought they had this earthquake pegged at a 9.0 from the beginning...
372. Jax82
Hmmm, quite a few high temp records, and high min temps set the past 7 days, wouldnt you say? To the tune of 6 to 1. Just on this map:

Rainfall-515
Snowfall-116
High temps-1177
Low temps-196
Low max temp-251
High min temp-838



Records
373. Jax82
Then there is unfortunately, lots of river flooding up North.

Quoting hydrus:
I thought they had this earthquake pegged at a 9.0 from the beginning...

it was originally put at 7.9 then was updated to 8.8 then after final analysis it was put at 9.0, I still have the quake reports from USGS
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah i read that, i thought the same thing,,,, does it mean they are willing to risk a crew on a tanker to fill it up with highly toxic discharge water. Where are they going to take this water?


Thunderdome?
Quoting Jax82:
Hmmm, quite a few high temp records, and high min temps set the past 7 days, wouldnt you say? To the tune of 6 to 1. Just on this map:

Rainfall-515
Snowfall-116
High temps-1177
Low temps-196
Low max temp-251
High min temp-838



Records


Actually maximum temperatures are nowhere near what they used to be despite the hype on this blog.

Link
Quoting Chicklit:


Thunderdome?

Maybe they were going to dump it way out at sea and it could wash up on a deserted island and nuclearise the animal life and turn them mutants.
This low on the ECMWF covers a lot of real estate...Link
Quoting RMuller:


Actually maximum temperatures are nowhere near what they used to be despite the hype on this blog.

Link

Why, that's the funniest thing I've heard all day. In short, D'Aleo is again showing his ignorance of statistics. Of course there were more anomalous heat waves in the past; the temperature record wasn't nearly so long. By now, however, things should have stabilized..but they haven't. A look at this very telling chart should tell you much of what you may be unaware.

Try not to let the distortions from denialist sites get in the way of truth; it's better that way. ;-)

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah i read that, i thought the same thing,,,, does it mean they are willing to risk a crew on a tanker to fill it up with highly toxic discharge water. Where are they going to take this water?


The tanker is there to act as a temporary buffer until it can be offloaded to a treatment center. In the meantime, the contaminated water would be siting inside of the tanker's sealed storage compartments. This is a lot safer than having the water evaporate into the air/leaking while sitting exposed inside the reactor.

The actual pumping should be fairly automatic and involve little in the way of human interaction once set up. The risk involved also depends on the level of contamination in the water. The term "highly contaminated" has been abused so much lately that it can mean anything from a few times higher than background radiation to 100 mSv/hr. It would also help to know what the water is contaminated with as well.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah i read that, i thought the same thing,,,, does it mean they are willing to risk a crew on a tanker to fill it up with highly toxic discharge water. Where are they going to take this water?


Aussie- I don't think anyone's thought this thing thru, there's no way, cause we just can't predict the unpredictable. It's putting a band-aid on a heart attack.
Quoting Chicklit:
#361: Thanks Aussie Storm.
This is of note from that site:

Sunday, April 10, 11:30 p.m. ET, Tokyo

"Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) announced that it finished discharging low-level contaminated water to the sea (about 10,000 tons). The company said it is now ready to pump out highly contaminated water (about 60,000 tons) from the basement of unit 2's reactor building to a condenser, which can hold 3,000 tons; eventually, this water will be pumped to a centralized waste treatment facility which can hold about 30,000 tons. A tanker or mega-float is still needed to store the rest of the water.

Huh?

Remember the infamous garbage barge incident of 1986? Maybe something like that, where the tankerful of radioactive waste gets floated around from port to port until people either forget about it or some corrupt third-world government takes it in exchange for silence and a big wad of cash, and then foists it upon its unsuspecting citizens. Or maybe until it breaks up in a "storm" far out at sea and TEPCO can grin sheepishly and say, "Whoopsie!", followed by a thousand articles from Big Nuclear supporters saying it's no big deal anyway because it's all going to be diluted and there'll never be any ill effects whatsoever from the millions of gallons of radioactive waste.

(It's interesting to note that the Basel Convention--the treaty that prevents rich nations from dumping toxic waste in underdeveloped ones--doesn't apply to radioactive waste. I smell an opportunity here...)
Yeah, they'll use it to irrigate crops in a drought area and then use it as a tax write-off.
This is, after all, an age in which profit represents virtue.
Anyway, back to the weather.
Have a great day everyone.
re: Aussiestorm, chicklit:
I assume they would be enclosing it in a suitable container, so I doubt the crew would be at risk.

About nuclear mutants... Read up on the Bikini tests. The fallout incident would have to OCCUR at relatively close quarters to the islands and even then, it would have to be in shallows or relatively stagnant water. The open ocean dissipates radiation at quite significant rates. (EDIT: Sorry, Aussie. It is hard to differentiate (at least for me) between sarcasm and cynicism on the internet)

EDIT: Xyrus seems to have a decent understanding.
Chicklit, etc.- Please let us shy away from sensationalism. They screwed up. It sucks. But they're making an effort to get out of the situation the best they can. They are not going to water drought-stricken crops with radioactive water as a tax write-off. The very idea is ludicrous. Furthermore, are any of you aware that the Bussard Polywell (version 8) Plasma Fusion Reactor is due to complete final testing on the 30th of this month(per it's contract bid)? If anything, use this as a very large case to push legislation to force replacing our fission reactors with fusion reactors.
Those kinds of statements (radioactive crop irrigation) are in the same grain of carbon emission radicals who seem not to have learned that A SINGLE VOLCANIC ERUPTION EMITS CARBON ON PAR WITH A WORLD WAR. Ice ages come and go. Life changes it's shape and variety. This planet was not formed specifically for the propagation of the human race. We are but guests on it's surface. But I digress.

To the moderators and weather knowledgables, I apologize for getting so far off topic.
Yeah, they'll use it to irrigate crops in a drought area and then use it as a tax write-off.

Monsanto's probably buying the rights to this idea as we speak.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Remember the infamous garbage barge incident of 1986? Maybe something like that, where the tankerful of radioactive waste gets floated around from port to port until people either forget about it or some corrupt third-world government takes it in exchange for silence and a big wad of cash, and then foists it upon its unsuspecting citizens. Or maybe until it breaks up in a "storm" far out at sea and TEPCO can grin sheepishly and say, "Whoopsie!", followed by a thousand articles from Big Nuclear supporters saying it's no big deal anyway because it's all going to be diluted and there'll never be any ill effects whatsoever from the millions of gallons of radioactive waste.

(It's interesting to note that the Basel Convention--the treaty that prevents rich nations from dumping toxic waste in underdeveloped ones--doesn't apply to radioactive waste. I smell an opportunity here...)
Our towing company was offered a huge sum of money to haul that mess..We said no..:)
Quoting aquak9:


Aussie- I don't think anyone's thought this thing thru, there's no way, cause we just can't predict the unpredictable. It's putting a band-aid on a heart attack.

Wednesday, April 13, 7 p.m. ET, Tokyo

Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) said that the temperature of unit 4's spent fuel storage pool is 90 degrees Celsius, which is much higher than the normal temperature (around 40 degrees Celsius). The company also found high radioactivity levels (84 millisieverts per hour) above the pool. The company suspects that fuel could have been damaged, and it is now analyzing water samples from the pool.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The tanker is there to act as a temporary buffer until it can be offloaded to a treatment center. In the meantime, the contaminated water would be siting inside of the tanker's sealed storage compartments. This is a lot safer than having the water evaporate into the air/leaking while sitting exposed inside the reactor.

The actual pumping should be fairly automatic and involve little in the way of human interaction once set up. The risk involved also depends on the level of contamination in the water. The term "highly contaminated" has been abused so much lately that it can mean anything from a few times higher than background radiation to 100 mSv/hr. It would also help to know what the water is contaminated with as well.




Wednesday, April 13, 6 p.m. ET, Tokyo

The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) said it found strontium 89 and strontium 90 in the soil and vegetable samples taken from the Fukushima prefecture -- 32 Becquerel (Bq) per kilogram for strontium 90 and 260 Bq per kilogram for strontium 89; this is the first time strontium has been detected in the area. There is no regulatory standard in Japan for strontium food contamination. These contamination levels found in Fukushima are much lower than the standards in the US (160 Bq per kilogram) and Europe (750 Bq per kilogram) for strontium 90.
Quoting CatfishJones:
re: Aussiestorm, chicklit:
I assume they would be enclosing it in a suitable container, so I doubt the crew would be at risk.

About nuclear mutants... Read up on the Bikini tests. The fallout incident would have to OCCUR at relatively close quarters to the islands and even then, it would have to be in shallows or relatively stagnant water. The open ocean dissipates radiation at quite significant rates.

EDIT: Xyrus seems to have a decent understanding.
Aussie, Chicklit, etc.- Please let us shy away from sensationalism. They screwed up. It sucks. But they're making an effort to get out of the situation the best they can. They are not going to water drought-stricken crops with radioactive water as a tax write-off. The very idea is ludicrous. Furthermore, are any of you aware that the Bussard Polywell (version 8) Plasma Fusion Reactor is due to complete final testing on the 30th of this month(per it's contract bid)? If anything, use this as a very large case to push legislation to force replacing our fission reactors with fusion reactors.

If you couldn't tell i was being sarcastic, GODZILLA.
isn't 50 mSv the annual limit for american workers??
A severe dust storm paralyzed Kuwait Wednesday, suspending air traffic and oil exports, authorities said. The Kuwait Petroleum Corp. also advised incoming ships to hold off on docking. A top oil official, Sheikh Talal Al-Khaled, said some maintenance work at refineries was halted as a precaution. But he said supplies to domestic and foreign customers will not be noticeably affected. Kuwait normally produces 2.5 million barrels of crude oil daily. Mohammad Al-Thuwaini, acting director of operations at Kuwait International Airport, said incoming flights were diverted to neighboring countries. Visibility at the airport was down to 1,300 feet.
Quoting aquak9:
isn't 50 mSv the annual limit for american workers??

So how toxic would you call water that gives off 84mSv/hr????
Quoting AussieStorm:

So how toxic would you call water that gives off 84mSv/hr????


Within TEPCO's standards.
Quoting CatfishJones:
They are not going to water drought-stricken crops with radioactive water as a tax write-off. The very idea is ludicrous.


You'd like to think so, but did you read the link Nea provided regarding the Khian Sea waste disposal incident?

Link here

From this article:

"In January 1988, the crew finally dumped 4,000 tons of the waste near Gonaives in Haiti as "topsoil fertilizer" (when it was too poisonous to be used that way)."

Now, I'm not saying that I truly believe that Japan will dump this radioactive water on agricultural fields as a tax right off... but the above event happened in 1988... hardly the Dark Ages. Unfortunately, some decision-makers have been shown to make, um, less-than-honorable decisions when presented with a daunting challenge such as this.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" -George Santayana


Quoting AussieStorm:


This is the closest info i can find time wise on the JMA website.

10:08 JST 13 Apr 2011 36.9N 140.7E 10 km 5.8 Fukushima-ken Hamadori

I don't know where they got the 7.2 from. False Info????
Thanks... and i dont know were they got that from.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Wow the Northwest Carribean shot up and the 26 degree line continues to bounce north and south all along the southern Gulf of Mexico. Though THCP is very low, but it is beginning to aquire some depth to it in the Norwestern Carribean.

April 4th-11th



Look at the difference in April 12th to the last shot of the loop above of April 11th.

That i find to be weard to have such aand increase. Right?
Quoting MrMixon:


You'd like to think so, but did you read the link Nea provided regarding the Khian Sea waste disposal incident?

Link here

From this article:

"In January 1988, the crew finally dumped 4,000 tons of the waste near Gonaives in Haiti as "topsoil fertilizer" (when it was too poisonous to be used that way)."

Now, I'm not saying that I truly believe that Japan will dump this radioactive water on agricultural fields as a tax right off... but the above event happened in 1988... hardly the Dark Ages. Unfortunately, some decision-makers have been shown to make, um, less-than-honorable decisions when presented with a daunting challenge such as this.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" -George Santayana



What if TEPCO took the tanker out into the deep Pacific Ocean and dump it, what damage could it do?
Quoting AussieStorm:

What if TEPCO took the tanker out into the deep Pacific Ocean and dump it, what damage could it do?


Only one way to find out (well, two if you count scientific modeling, which I'm unqualified to do)...I'm reminded of the phrase:

"Hold my beer and watch this..."
FULL BASIN SST IMAGE

The daily comparison for April 12:

2009

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2010

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2011

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
not to be outdone, the Daily Warm-n-Fuzzy:

SWOON
Past 30 days...
Past 30 days...
Quoting Neapolitan:
The daily comparison for April 12:

2009

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2010

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2011

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3731





What are the two images for each year- are they different depths?
Quoting jitterboy:


What are the two images for each year- are they different depths?

The images on the left show SSTs; the ones on the right show the depth of the 26.C line. That is, the depth to which waters statistically capable of TC development extend. The deeper the warm water, the greater the TCHP...
Im sorry for being such a huge noob but how can i post loops from maps and all that?
Quoting Neapolitan:

The images on the left show SSTs; the ones on the right show the depth of the 26.C line. That is, the depth to which waters statistically capable of TC development extend. The deeper the warm water, the greater the TCHP...

Thanks
gearst- go to the top of this blog, scroll down the right-hand side. There's a place in recommmended links that tells you how to do that.
Quoting hydrus:
Past 30 days...


I've been half expecting for that impressive current eddie in the EPAC to help kick off their season early.
TC formation probability is at 0.2-0.4% for the region in the EPAC. Don't think it will make it for long, but it is in a favorable region as of now.


Quoting Skyepony:


I've been half expecting for that impressive current eddie in the EPAC to help kick off their season early.
do you know if such vigorous eddies are commonplace in the Epac, like the GOM loop current? i was impressed when i first noticed it, but not sure if it's 'anomalously' impressive..
Texas should begin to really start seeing some much need rain as the models are all wanting to dig several troughs into TX allowing for more frequent heavy rain events and maybe some significant severe wx outbreaks as well. Hang in there TX hope appears to be on the horizon.
C and Eastern TX should be get lots of rain over the coming weeks. Maybe not drought busting but a change in the pattern none the less.
Quoting Minnemike:
do you know if such vigorous eddies are commonplace in the Epac, like the GOM loop current? i was impressed when i first noticed it, but not sure if it's 'anomalously' impressive..


That Eddie in the EPAC is pretty common. I think the Loop Current is even more impressive this year. Storms coming up out of the Caribbean this year should have no problem feeding off that current this year as it is very large compared to previous years and much warmer.
417. P451
A little off topic but it has been a topic of conversation in the past.



University of Utah

The volcanic plume of partly molten rock that feeds the Yellowstone supervolcano. Yellow and red indicate higher conductivity, green and blue indicate lower conductivity. Made by University of Utah geophysicists and computer scientists, this is the first large-scale 'geoelectric' image of the Yellowstone hotspot.



===

The gigantic underground plume of partly molten rock that feeds the Yellowstone supervolcano might be bigger than previously thought, a new image suggests.

The study says nothing about the chances of a cataclysmic eruption at Yellowstone, but it provides scientists with a valuable new perspective on the vast and deep reservoir of fiery material that feeds such eruptions, the last of which occurred more than 600,000 years ago.

Earlier measurements of the plume were produced by using seismic waves — the waves generated by earthquakes — to create a picture of the underground region. The new picture was produced by examining the Yellowstone plume's electrical conductivity, which is generated by molten silicate rocks and hot briny water that is naturally present and mixed in with partly molten rock.

"It’s a totally new and different way of imaging and looking at the volcanic roots of Yellowstone," said study co-author Robert B. Smith, professor emeritus and research professor of geophysics at the University of Utah, and a coordinating scientist of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

===

Full Article

Afternoon all.

Quoting Skyepony:


I've been half expecting for that impressive current eddie in the EPAC to help kick off their season early.
Just was thinking the same thing....

Looks like we will at least be having some cloud cover this p.m.... though the clouds don't look like they have much water in them....
Severe Weather Risk in Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday, Friday

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Apr 13, 2011; 11:34 AM ETShare .

The South Central states will be the focus of the next major severe weather outbreak, including some strong tornadoes spanning Thursday into Friday.

Powerful and dangerous thunderstorms are likely to fire from northeastern Texas to eastern Kansas during Thursday. Next, the storms will march eastward crossing the Mississippi River Thursday night. Severe storms could stretch from Alabama to eastern Tennessee and central Kentucky on Friday.

The atmospheric setup may allow the formation of some strong tornadoes, that could be on the ground for a number of miles, especially in portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas and Louisiana into Thursday night.

While fortunately only a relatively few locations are hit during the biggest of outbreaks, the potential for damaging and life-threatening weather conditions exists nonetheless. As with prior outbreaks this month, people need to take the situation seriously.

In addition to the risk of a few communities being hit with a tornado during this event, localized strong wind gusts, large hail, frequent lighting and even flash flooding are also a concern and could cover a significantly larger area.

Atmospheric Dynamics

A storm rolling eastward across Kansas and Missouri will pull warm, humid air in close contact with dry air to the west and cold air aloft over the lower Mississippi Valley late this week.

This storm system will have the coveted shifting and increasing winds with height allowing the storms to rotate.
As we often see this time of the year, there will be a strong jet stream overhead, helping some of the storms drag these strong winds down to the surface.

If there is a potential moderating factor in this potential severe weather event, cloud cover could reduce the daytime heating and hence rob the extra energy and lift needed by some storms to become severe farther north and east in portions of the Midwest.

However, as we sometimes see in the spring, the cloud cover issue may not matter much ahead of the storms.
Good afternoon all.


still gotta while till this really picks up
Quoting P451:
A little off topic but it has been a topic of conversation in the past.



University of Utah

The volcanic plume of partly molten rock that feeds the Yellowstone supervolcano. Yellow and red indicate higher conductivity, green and blue indicate lower conductivity. Made by University of Utah geophysicists and computer scientists, this is the first large-scale 'geoelectric' image of the Yellowstone hotspot.



===

The gigantic underground plume of partly molten rock that feeds the Yellowstone supervolcano might be bigger than previously thought, a new image suggests.

The study says nothing about the chances of a cataclysmic eruption at Yellowstone, but it provides scientists with a valuable new perspective on the vast and deep reservoir of fiery material that feeds such eruptions, the last of which occurred more than 600,000 years ago.

Earlier measurements of the plume were produced by using seismic waves %u2014 the waves generated by earthquakes %u2014 to create a picture of the underground region. The new picture was produced by examining the Yellowstone plume's electrical conductivity, which is generated by molten silicate rocks and hot briny water that is naturally present and mixed in with partly molten rock.

"It%u2019s a totally new and different way of imaging and looking at the volcanic roots of Yellowstone," said study co-author Robert B. Smith, professor emeritus and research professor of geophysics at the University of Utah, and a coordinating scientist of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

===

Full Article

Neat Article, though I do suspect it since it came from Fox News LOL. When Yellowstone erupts, it will be an earth changing event. Maybe that is the ONLY thing that will cool this planet. I am really torn. I would love to see it happen, but I don't want to be around when it happens....truly conflicted am I:)
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE KS...ERN
OK...FAR SW MO AND FAR NW AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...MID-MO VALLEY...OZARKS AND ARKLATEX...

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SRN PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS/MID-MO VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CLOSE OFF OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THE EXIT REGION OF A
70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION CREATING
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THE
SFC...A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN QUICKLY ACROSS
CNTRL KS AT MIDDAY MOVING NWD INTO NEB. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
SHOULD FIRST OCCUR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
DEVELOPING STRONG CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SEWD INTO
CNTRL TO ERN KS AND ECNTRL OK ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
A DRYLINE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 00Z FRIDAY SHOW
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 J/KG IN ECNTRL KS TO 2500 TO 3000 J/KG IN
ECNTRL OK. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 65 KT
WILL CREATE A THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA
IN SE KS...ERN OK...FAR NW AR AND FAR SW MO. THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ON THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ERN OK FROM 00Z TO 03Z SHOW 0-3 KM
STORM RELATIVELY HELICITIES OF 350 TO 450 M2/S2 WHICH WILL MAKE AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT
SHOULD BE CONDITIONAL UPON MOISTURE RETURN AND STORM MODE.
SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT INSTEAD OF THE TENDENCY FOR DISCRETE
CONVECTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z TO 00Z SHOW A
STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SWD EXTENT IN NE TX. DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AN MCS
IN THE OZARKS AND DRIVING THIS FEATURE EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE MAY CONTINUE AS FAR EAST AS SCNTRL MO AND ECNTRL AR
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST.

..BROYLES.. 04/13/2011
Quoting Minnemike:
do you know if such vigorous eddies are commonplace in the Epac, like the GOM loop current? i was impressed when i first noticed it, but not sure if it's 'anomalously' impressive..


Eddies are common in that area of the EPAC. There's another one rolling up along Mexico. That big one really is impressive though~don't see them with a full on eye like that much. Shows good height too.

Baha~That was dry through here.
Quoting kwgirl:
Neat Article, though I do suspect it since it came from Fox News LOL. When Yellowstone erupts, it will be an earth changing event. Maybe that is the ONLY thing that will cool this planet. I am really torn. I would love to see it happen, but I don't want to be around when it happens....truly conflicted am I:)


On the opposite end of the spectrum, if it were from
CNN or NPR then I would really suspect a sham.
However, this is a very well known and accurately recorded geologic event. It's eruption however does
not reflect or coincide with the 100,000 year glaciation
but with the movement of the North American Plate

Link
that water is warm for april!! wow
thanks Rasta and Skye... curiosity fed ;)
Quoting iceagecoming:


On the opposite end of the spectrum, if it were from
CNN or NPR then I would really suspect a sham.
However, this is a very well known and accurately recorded geologic event. It's eruption however does
not reflect or coincide with the 100,000 year glaciation
but with the movement of the North American Plate

Link
Well I think we have been seeing shifts in the plates. If the pacific plate moves, then the north american plate is going to move. Or at least to my simple mind. And I don't understand, if there was a large enough eruption, I thought it would bring on an ice age. Maybe not the one 70,0000 years ago, but surely the one 600,0000 years ago. And I believe that is the type we are due for, if it really runs in cycles.
429. beell
Friday looks pretty tough. Much greater risk than the Thursday severe. I'd bet on discrete mode over MS/AL and parts of TN.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK O
F SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MID-MS VALLEY...CNTRL GULF COAST...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY. THE EXIT REGION OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE DAY CREATING STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM BEGIN THE DAY 3 PERIOD WITH AN MCS LOCATED IN
THE MID-MS VALLEY DRIVING THIS FEATURE EWD INTO WRN KY AND WRN TN BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND INITIATE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO NCNTRL AL...MS AND
SE LA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MCS SEEMS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL MS AND WRN AL AT 21Z ON FRIDAY SHOW
IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON STORM MODE. IF A SQUALL-LINE WERE TO
DEVELOP INSTEAD OF MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION....THEN WIND DAMAGE
COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT
. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ECNTRL STATES. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS FOCUS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
FURTHER NORTH IN TN AND KY BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A
STRONG COMPONENT OF THE JET IN THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT AND MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP
BEING STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THEN A TORNADO OUTBREAK COULD OCCUR
IN PARTS OF WRN TO MIDDLE TN...MS AND AL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK REMAINS CONDITIONAL AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RAISE UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING
THE EXACT SCENARIO.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IN SPITE OF WEAKER INSTABILITY...A STRONG WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. A
TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE OH VALLEY DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST BUT THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
DEPENDENT UPON MOISTURE RETURN.

..BROYLES.. 04/13/2011
Quoting beell:
Friday looks pretty tough. Much greater risk than the Thursday severe. I'd bet on discrete mode over MS/AL and parts of TN.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK O
F SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MID-MS VALLEY...CNTRL GULF COAST...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY. THE EXIT REGION OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE DAY CREATING STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM BEGIN THE DAY 3 PERIOD WITH AN MCS LOCATED IN
THE MID-MS VALLEY DRIVING THIS FEATURE EWD INTO WRN KY AND WRN TN BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND INITIATE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO NCNTRL AL...MS AND
SE LA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MCS SEEMS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL MS AND WRN AL AT 21Z ON FRIDAY SHOW
IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON STORM MODE. IF A SQUALL-LINE WERE TO
DEVELOP INSTEAD OF MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION....THEN WIND DAMAGE
COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT
. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ECNTRL STATES. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS FOCUS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
FURTHER NORTH IN TN AND KY BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A
STRONG COMPONENT OF THE JET IN THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT AND MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP
BEING STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THEN A TORNADO OUTBREAK COULD OCCUR
IN PARTS OF WRN TO MIDDLE TN...MS AND AL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK REMAINS CONDITIONAL AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RAISE UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING
THE EXACT SCENARIO.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IN SPITE OF WEAKER INSTABILITY...A STRONG WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. A
TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE OH VALLEY DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST BUT THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
DEPENDENT UPON MOISTURE RETURN.

..BROYLES.. 04/13/2011
SUPERCELLUAR WITH POSS EF3 LONG TRACK TORNADOES THIS NEXT ROUND WELL MIGHT HAVE A BIT OF A KICK TOO IT MAYBE
Quoting P451:
A little off topic but it has been a topic of conversation in the past.


One could only wish we could develop some serious geothermal energy production.

I think we currently only do a fraction of a percent geothermal, and almost all of that is in Hawaii.
sorry for caps
lock was on
posted before realizing it
Quoting kwgirl:
Well I think we have been seeing shifts in the plates. If the pacific plate moves, then the north american plate is going to move. Or at least to my simple mind. And I don't understand, if there was a large enough eruption, I thought it would bring on an ice age. Maybe not the one 70,0000 years ago, but surely the one 600,0000 years ago. And I believe that is the type we are due for, if it really runs in cycles.

I wouldn't say "due"; many geologists and vulcanologists believe the recent period megaeruptions at Yellowstone are over with for at least the next several million years, as a far thicker layer of crust now overlies the magma plume, obviously making any such eruption far more difficult.

But, yes, a megaeruption at Yellowstone--or anywhere else--would definitely cool things off for awhile. Of course, there'd be fewer plants to absorb all the extra CO2 we'd be pushing into the atmosphere to stay warm and lit, so once the aerosols and particulates disappeared, the heating would resume again in earnest. Bottom line: only the wackiest denialist would be hoping for a megaeruption to throw them a line. It's far better to wise up and stop burning fossil fuels now.

P.S.--you're right to question the validity of anything you hear on Fox; watching that network makes you demonstrably dumber.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I wouldn't say "due"; many geologists and vulcanologists believe the recent period megaeruptions at Yellowstone are over with for at least the next several million years, as a far thicker layer of crust now overlies the magma plume, obviously making any such eruption far more difficult.

But, yes, a megaeruption at Yellowstone--or anywhere else--would definitely cool things off for awhile. Of course, there'd be fewer plants to absorb all the extra CO2 we'd be pushing into the atmosphere to stay warm and lit, so once the aerosols and particulates disappeared, the heating would resume again in earnest. Bottom line: only the wackiest denialist would be hoping for a megaeruption to throw them a line. It's far better to wise up and stop burning fossil fuels now.
don't worry we will stop using them when we reach the bottom of the barrel sort of speak as we deplete all oil supplies on the surface
Quoting Neapolitan:

I wouldn't say "due"; many geologists and vulcanologists believe the recent period megaeruptions at Yellowstone are over with for at least the next several million years, as a far thicker layer of crust now overlies the magma plume, obviously making any such eruption far more difficult.

But, yes, a megaeruption at Yellowstone--or anywhere else--would definitely cool things off for awhile. Of course, there'd be fewer plants to absorb all the extra CO2 we'd be pushing into the atmosphere to stay warm and lit, so once the aerosols and particulates disappeared, the heating would resume again in earnest. Bottom line: only the wackiest denialist would be hoping for a megaeruption to throw them a line. It's far better to wise up and stop burning fossil fuels now.

P.S.--you're right to question the validity of anything you hear on Fox; watching that network makes you demonstrably dumber.
I don't know about that last comment, but I realized the other day I haven't watched Fox channel in years. Even the local news I can't stand because of the over hype. I have been fascinated and terrified at the same time with volcanoes. I figure I was either an early vulcanologist or was thrown into a caldera as a sacrifice......Maybe that is why I am afraid of fire...though most my friends who know me say it is because I was burned as a witch...some friends huh?
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 09-20102011
22:00 PM RET April 13 2011
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression 9 (1000 hPa) located at 28.6S 48.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
70 to 250 NM from the center with gradient effect

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 450 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 29.9S 48.0E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS: 30.8S 46.9E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
48 HRS: 33.9S 47.4E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropical)
72 HRS: 38.9S 51.0E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropical)

Additional Information
======================

No Dvorak Analysis.

Satellite imagery shows a well-defined and partially exposed low level vortex, A convective band is present in the southern semi-circle of the system and wraps fairly closely from the center, but difficulty persists. At this location, ASCAT swath 0557z is not centered on the system, but it is very likely that wind structure is asymmetric with a large strong wind half-ring reaching 35-40 knots with gradient effect from 70-250 NM from the center and weaker winds at about 25-30 knots in the northern semi-circle that justify the subtropical depression stage.

The system still evolves in a baroclinic environment (cold upper level low and lower than usual dynamical tropopause) with good upper level divergence preserves convection in hte southwestern edge is phasis with a weak vertical wind shear on the trough axis. These conditions are expected to remain temporarily, so system should keep this stage or slightly deepen.

Available numerical weather prediction models forecast that the system keeps a south southwestward movement for the next 36t hours and beyond recurve southeastward. Until Friday evening, upper level conditions are favorable and the low could a little deepen, despite colder sea surface temperature (25-26C) towards the south. It is possible that the subtropical system temporarily evolves to a tropical structure if convection increases near the center and persists. On an after 48-60 hours, the system should begin its extratropical transition in the westerly circulation of the mid-latitudes.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Quoting Skyepony:


I've been half expecting for that impressive current eddie in the EPAC to help kick off their season early.
It is rather warm and potent..We are looking at yet another severe weather outbreak..I am growing weary of these systems. This will be the 7th in a short period of time. My place has taken a beating for the past two years...There are more strong systems coming if the models pan out..I went through 3 hurricanes in less than two months in Florida....That weird feeling hit me again when I visited the S.P.C. site today....Am I venting.?..:)
look at this!!
Somebody else was saying that Friday could get quite ugly. If a squall line does not form, the chances of numerous super-cellular thunderstorms goes way up..And the chance of long track tornadoes....I,ll take the squall line any day.
Quoting :-433. Neapolitan,

Whats Fox Channel?

Has anybody got a link to it so as we can sink into an abyss of oblivion where all news is supposedly modified to make it acceptable to the consuming masses; where any form of constructive thought and inventive discussion is overwhelmed by media based truth.

Ive asked around and nobody seems to know what this,'' Fox Channel,'' is, the nearest I could get was somebody who thought it might be a new type of masculine perfume!
Quoting PlazaRed:
Quoting :-433. Neapolitan,

Whats Fox Channel?

Has anybody got a link to it so as we can sink into an abyss of oblivion where all news is supposedly modified to make it acceptable to the consuming masses; where any form of constructive thought and inventive discussion is overwhelmed by media based truth.

Ive asked around and nobody seems to know what this,'' Fox Channel,'' is, the nearest I could get was somebody who thought it might be a new type of masculine perfume!
In the Miami region it is channel 7.
Heres a 6.1 to break the monotony:-

MAP

6.1

2011/04/13 19:57:24

39.587

143.357

11.2

OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Quoting kwgirl:
I don't know about that last comment, but I realized the other day I haven't watched Fox channel in years. Even the local news I can't stand because of the over hype. I have been fascinated and terrified at the same time with volcanoes. I figure I was either an early vulcanologist or was thrown into a caldera as a sacrifice......Maybe that is why I am afraid of fire...though most my friends who know me say it is because I was burned as a witch...some friends huh?
Depends how many turns of the mandala you've been on. Could be all of the above. ;)
Looking like official neutral ENSO by possibly june, definately july. Latest weekly 3.4 is -0.36.
Fox Chanel # 5....Sounds almost like the 1979 commercial...Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah i read that, i thought the same thing,,,, does it mean they are willing to risk a crew on a tanker to fill it up with highly toxic discharge water. Where are they going to take this water?


The way things are going, we are going to end up with a tanker or three permanently at sea.

Quoting FFtrombi:
Looking like official neutral ENSO by possibly june, definately july. Latest weekly 3.4 is -0.36.
Neutral could mean more landfalling storms...jmo of course.
It's a rainy afternoon in here....

I will see you all tomorrow. Have a good night and play nice everyone.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
It's a rainy afternoon in here....

Pleny of moisture in your area....
NEW BLOG!