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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Drenchings Trump Twisters in Tornado Alley

By: Bob Henson 8:42 PM GMT on May 18, 2015

Despite a few high-profile tornadoes on Saturday, damage and injuries were minimal, and millions of people across the nation’s heartland experienced a more garden-variety weekend of spring showers and thunderstorms, some bearing extremely heavy rain. The unusually wet pattern will continue over the Plains this week, with severe weather mostly restricted to Texas until at least Friday. The most impressive supercell storms on Saturday were across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma, with the most prominent tornado traveling alnog a 35-mile-long path from near Elmer to near Snyder. Hitting mostly rural areas, this large tornado earned a preliminary rating of EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita Tornado Damage Scale, based on initial surveys coordinated by the National Weather Service office in Norman, OK. It’s possible that considerably stronger winds existed but failed to strike any of the objects (“damage indicators”) that are used in storm surveys to derive an EF rating. Storm-chaser video from near Elmer showed rapid motion around a wedge-shaped tornado that at one point appeared several times wider than it was tall (see Video 1 below). This is largely a function of the very low cloud base produced by high relative humidity near the ground.


Figure 1. A panoramic view of the storm in southwest Oklahoma that generated the tornado shown in Video 1 and Figure 2. Image credit: Daphne LaDue.


Video 1. Impressive footage from the Elmer-Tipton tornado. The dramatic width of the tornado during its “wedge phase” is clearly evident. If embedded clip is not visible, the video can be viewed directly at YouTube. Video credit: Jeff Snyder.


Figure 2. The “stovepipe phase” of the long-lived tornado in southwest Oklahoma on Saturday, May 16. This photo was taken near the town of Tipton. Image credit: James LaDue.


The University of Oklahoma’s RaXpol radar, a mobile, high-resolution dual-polarization system, gathered data from the Elmer-Snyder tornado. Although the radar was located roughly 10 to 12 miles from the tornado, the data will help clarify wind speeds just above the surface in and near the twister. (Note that radar-derived winds are averaged over a three-dimensional volume around the beam, rather than derived at a single point.) From an initial scan of the data, Howie Bluestein (University of Oklahoma) estimates that peak winds from RaXpol were around 150 mph in the lowest few hundred feet, with evidence of debris in the dual-polarization data at altitudes at least as high as 25,000 feet. “There was a classic debris signature aloft,” says Bluestein. Researchers are pondering ways to rate tornadoes that could employ the growing availability of high-resolution radar estimates of tornado winds without compromising the consistency of the nation’s tornado database, in which most events cannot be linked to such radar data. The El Reno tornado of May 31, 2013, was officially rated EF3, based on the available damage indicators, while RaXpol detected EF5-strength winds of at at least 290 mph over a volume centered less than 60 feet above ground level. (See this Weather and Forecasting journal article for more details on the 2013 RaXpol data.)

Oklahoma was on high alert Saturday night after the highly visible tornadoes appeared on local and national TV. Fortunately, the initial supercells congealed into a solid line before reaching central Oklahoma, which reduced their ability to form significant tornadoes, but a new broken line of supercells formed a bit further east. A late-night tornado (11:30 pm CDT) produced EF2 damage along a path at least 12 miles long near the Tulsa suburb of Broken Arrow. In all, Saturday produced 45 tornado reports across 9 states, with about half occurring in Texas and Oklahoma. As was the case on the previous Saturday (May 8), the day’s severe weather was split into two focal points by a large area of morning showers and thunderstorms that developed early in the day over northern Oklahoma and Kansas, keeping the atmosphere in those areas too cool and stable for supercell activity. The other hot spot on Saturday was in central Minnesota, where 9 tornadoes were reported, including one that struck a farmstead near Montevideo.


Figure 3. The 0- and 84-hour forecasts at 500 mb from the NAM model, valid at 1200 GMT Monday, May 18, and 0000 GMT Friday, May 22, are remarkably similar, reflecting the persistence in the current pattern. Image credit: NCAR/RAL Real-Time Weather Data.


Another wet week ahead
Prodigious rains are emerging as the big weather story this month—not a surprise, given that an unseasonably early El Niño event is now strengthening. Persistent, recurrent upper lows in the Southwest (see Figure 3) have channeled deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico across the central states and provided jet-stream energy to lift the moist air. It appears quite possible that this month will eclipse June 1989 as the wettest month in Oklahoma City history, in records going back to late 1890. With 12.85” reported as of Monday morning, only 1.82” is needed to break the 1989 record, with more rain in the forecast throughout this week. Other cities are also in the running for monthly rain records, including San Diego, where 2.35” has fallen this month; the city’s May record is 2.54” (1921), and light showers are expected late this week. Phoenix scored 0.93” of rain last Thursday, the most observed on any May day on record. The current monthly total of 1.17” in Phoenix makes it the second-wettest May on record, behind only May 1930 (1.31"). A wet weekend pushed Jamestown, ND, up to 8.29” for the month, the highest May total in records going back to 1893.


Figure 4. The 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center for the period 1200 GMT Monday, May 18 - 25. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP Weather Prediction Center.

The zone of rich moisture that’s covered the Plains much of this month will be pushed southward early this week by a chilly-for-May surface air mass. The next chance for widespread severe weather will likely be on Friday or Saturday, as yet another upper low in the Southwest (see Figure 3, above) moves across the Plains. However, it’s again possible that early-morning showers and storms will shunt the most unstable air away from the zone of strongest wind shear, limiting the area at risk of significant tornadoes or other severe weather. Heavy rains appear to be a safe bet (see Figure 4, above), again putting parts of the Southern Plains at risk of flash flooding.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. A “ground-to-cloud” flash lights up the sky near Bixby, OK, on Saturday, May 16. Upward-directed lightning, which typically occurs near transmission towers, wind turbines, and other large objects, has recently been linked to thundersnow events. Image credit: wunderphotographer mrwing13.
Wichita Falls, Texas supercell
Wichita Falls, Texas supercell
This is the third tornado warned storm we were able to chase this day. The other two were in Oklahoma. Luckily for this town, there wasn't a tornado. It was so close to producing!
Grandfield, Oklahoma supercell
Grandfield, Oklahoma supercell
Our second supercell of the day. Tornado warned but no tornado......
Texas
Texas

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Doc could you at some future date..make a blog on what would/could happen if the gulfstream stopped due to the excessive Greenland melt pouring fresh water into the oceans?...TY in advance.


66.76° N, 141.88° W ✕

175° @ 4 km/h

26.8 °C
Thank you Mr Henson for your updates on the present situation.
I was just about to retire for the evening having predicted from the old blog, the new blog 7 minutes in advance of its appearance, needless to say its a very welcome addition of reasonably good news concerning tornado activity.
Plus of course the news of much needed rains.

Warm and sunny in our zone right now with a few thunder storms and no forest fires tonight.
Thanks Dr. Henson. I wonder if the crystalline structure of snowflakes have anything to do with the charge distribution during a heightened convective snowfall event, where instability can cause thunder/lightning during snowstorms. I'll have to reread the older entry and do a little digging.
Quoting 1. LargoFl:

Doc could you at some future date..make a blog on what would/could happen if the gulfstream stopped due to the excessive Greenland melt pouring fresh water into the oceans?...TY in advance.





Thank You Dr. Henson; the general pattern for the US per El Nino Climatology:


Generally speaking El Niño brings:
  • cooler and wetter weather to the southern United States
  • warmer weather to western Canada and southern Alaska
  • drier weather to the Pacific Northwest
  • cooler weather to northern Canada
  • wetter weather to southern California
These effects are felt strongest in the winter after onset of the event.
thanks dok henson
Thank you Bob, I sincerely appreciate your addition to this blog.

From the last blog;


335. indianrivguy
5:03 PM EDT on May 18, 2015
0
+

Quoting 320. LargoFl:

is this possible guys?....the Greenland ice sheet is melting and releasing too much fresh water into the oceans..and could.....the warm gulf stream...slow down or even cease?...............this site sort of explains what would happen IF........................Link



I think the real story is how the gulfstream protects eastern US. I recently read that sea levels along the Florida Coast are 1 to 1.5 meters LOWER because the gulfstrean pulls water away, and protects us from the prevailing wind piling up the Atlantic on our coast. We had some pretty interesting flooding during and after hurricane Sandy because the Gulfstream slowed down some 30 %.... This is added on TOP of the global issues of sea level rise.
Thanks Mr. Henson..That is a large area of receiving over half a foot.. If this pattern were to continue, we may have some historical flooding for parts of Texas.
We haven't head rain along the beaches in NW Florida for weeks, I really wish the blocking feature would move out so we could get some rain.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Here's the ERSSTv4 1870-1899 tri-monthly ONI I've calculated using the CPC's methodology of a 30 yr sliding base period updated every 5 years. Check out the "Super" El Ninos in 1877-78 & 1888-89 w/ anomalies well above 2.0C. I'll leave the individual dataset values (from HADCRUT4, ERSSTv3b, HADISST, Kaplan, etc) to the nearest hundredth because I plan on merging the values derived from all the datasets together into a "super ensemble" averaged to the nearest tenth that, when supplemented with Wolter's extended MEI, will lend confidence to & reveal a substantial amount of reliable information about ENSO behavior all the back into the mid-late 19th century.



Quoting 1. LargoFl:

Doc could you at some future date..make a blog on what would/could happen if the gulfstream stopped due to the excessive Greenland melt pouring fresh water into the oceans?...TY in advance.

I think that you would find that in spite of the large amounts of ice melt in Greenland, it is in reality a relatively small amount compared to the huge amount of sea water moved by the gulf stream. Also you have to consider the huge amount of cubic miles of ice stored in the Greenland ice sheet.
We are not talking about large percentages of the total Greenland ice mass here, just a large amount of melting relative to earlier times.
By now the Arctic sea ice is not really in the equation any more as most of it melts and re freezes annually. Added to this it is mostly frozen sea water to start with.
Regarding "and the current monthly total of 1.17” is behind only 1.06” (May 1976) and 1.05” (May 1992)" in the blog article, 1.17" would be ahead of 1.06" and 1.05", not behind them.
Quoting 8. indianrivguy:

Thank you Bob, I sincerely appreciate your addition to this blog.

From the last blog;


335. indianrivguy
5:03 PM EDT on May 18, 2015
0
+

Quoting 320. LargoFl:

is this possible guys?....the Greenland ice sheet is melting and releasing too much fresh water into the oceans..and could.....the warm gulf stream...slow down or even cease?...............this site sort of explains what would happen IF........................Link



I think the real story is how the gulfstream protects eastern US. I recently read that sea levels along the Florida Coast are 1 to 1.5 meters LOWER because the gulfstrean pulls water away, and protects us from the prevailing wind piling up the Atlantic on our coast. We had some pretty interesting flooding during and after hurricane Sandy because the Gulfstream slowed down some 30 %.... This is added on TOP of the global issues of sea level rise.
yeah the gulfstream really helps a lot in many ways..if it were to shut down or..slow down a lot..many things we take for granted today might not be there anymore....
I got this from the Howstuffworks site....one scenario....................................Anothe r school of thought makes the opposite prediction: Global warming might actually lead to another ice age. According to this theory, warming temperatures disrupt ocean currents -- particularly the Gulf Stream, the flow that redistributes warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to northern Europe. As the Gulf Stream makes its deposits of warm water along the coasts of Great Britain and northwestern Europe, it keeps the temperatures there warmer than they would be otherwise.

The worry is that, when Arctic ice melts as a result of global warming, huge amounts of fresh water will pour into the North Atlantic and slow down the Gulf Stream. A study of circulation in the North Atlantic has discovered that there already has been a 30 percent reduction in currents flowing north from the Gulf Stream [source: Pearce]. A slowed Gulf Stream could potentially lead to dramatic cooling in Europe
17. vis0






cant edit so i erase
Quoting 16. LargoFl:

As the Gulf Stream makes its deposits of warm water along the coasts of Great Britain and northwestern Europe, it keeps the temperatures there warmer than they would be otherwise..


Palm trees in western Scotland.

Quoting 17. vis0:

Oceanspray® .. oops Ocean spray controls more weather than you realize

Deems CranApples®? (for Little Rascal fans)  ...on the serious side, see it was right under scientists nose and if anyone remember on my blog ~2011 how i stated the use of certain lasers as to a spectrum of light and vibrating the lasers bout to bout will help better predict ocean storms...no one remembers? gonna have to start posting captures of my old blog.
and now to finish skinning through the last blog.

Corners w/.sticks, and lower boards were dirt...and there were tens....its the way its always been...
Quoting 18. MahFL:



Palm trees in western Scotland.



Not palms. Dracenas, I think
Quoting 18. MahFL:



Palm trees in western Scotland.


Cabbage trees. They don't grow where it's hot; they thrive in cool climates, such as New Zealand's South Island (where they're from). They're not related to palms at all; one of their closest relatives is asparagus.

(FWIW, there are even some growing in Norway about five degrees south of the Arctic Circle.)
Quoting 15. LargoFl:

yeah the gulfstream really helps a lot in many ways..if it were to shut down or..slow down a lot..many things we take for granted today might not be there anymore....
I believe the last time there really was an interruption to the Gulf Stream was when the continental glacier on North America was melting, and Glacial Lake Agassiz broke free and dumped a LOT of fresh water into the Arctic Ocean. There isn't currently that sort of situation likely -- unless something melts Greenland rapidly, which is not very likely. But the current melting North of the Arctic Circle could freshen the North Atlantic enough to slow the AMOC substantially more than it already has slowed. The warming in the tropical area feeds the AMOC from the South, though, and that isn't going away soon.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Mon May 18 2015

Valid 00Z Tue May 19 2015 - 00Z Thu May 21 2015

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the
Southern High Plains...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Southern Plains...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Central High Plains...

...Temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees below average over parts of the
Central High Plains/Central Rockies...

A front extending from the Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern High
Plains will move eastward to off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast then
westward across the Southeast to the Southern High Plains by Wednesday
morning. Moisture pooling along the boundary will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms from the Northeast roughly southwestward to the
Lower Mississippi Valley/Eastern Gulf Coast that will move eastward off
the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms
will remain over the Southeast to the Southern Plains through Wednesday
morning. In addition, rain will develop ahead of the front over parts of
the Northeast Tuesday morning into late Tuesday evening. A second area of
rain over the Upper Great Lakes will move eastward to parts of Northern
New England by Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over Central California will move
northeastward to the Central High Plains by Wednesday. The energy will
also induce a low over the Southern High Plains by Tuesday afternoon that
will move eastward to the Southern Plains by Wednesday morning. The
upper-level low will aid in producing rain with embedded thunderstorms
from parts of the Pacific Northwest roughly southeastward to the
Central/Southern Rockies through Wednesday. As the energy moves eastward,
moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the
Southern/Central Plains into parts of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley
Tuesday into Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the
Southern High Plains and move eastward into the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. Rain will also develop over parts of the
Central High Plains and move eastward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by
Wednesday morning. Some of the highest elevations of the Rockies will
have wet snow through Wednesday.


Ziegenfelder
sst's as of sat 8pm est in green circle
seed bank island
white outline is ice extend
we gonna watch it all but disappear
late august 2015

I think the way or trend of SSTs in the Atlantic are going we may have a better shot of seeing tropical cyclone development in the Hudson Bay than in the MDR of the Atlantic. Cool SSTs and the Dam SAL.
zoomed up on anomalies for sst's as well at 8 pm est sat may 16 for the north

u can see there are warmer waters showing already and its still ice covered

Looks like some big hail on the supercell in southwestern Texas:

TA13 - i thought Al Gore did a segment on the gulf stream (and other ocean currents) stopping. I remember Dr. Masters commenting that his science was a B though... So an update on that would be nice.
It's coming back up



Quoting 21. Neapolitan:

Cabbage trees. They don't grow where it's hot; they thrive in cool climates, such as New Zealand's South Island (where they're from). They're not related to palms at all; one of their closest relatives is asparagus.

(FWIW, there are even some growing in Norway about five degrees south of the Arctic Circle.)


When I planted them, I never thought they would last :):)
weather convoy mdr?? cold? only got three more months to go to cv season. there is no ill repeat no sign of thunderstorm season e cen fl.
Quoting 16. LargoFl:

I got this from the Howstuffworks site....one scenario....................................Anothe r school of thought makes the opposite prediction: Global warming might actually lead to another ice age. According to this theory, warming temperatures disrupt ocean currents -- particularly the Gulf Stream, the flow that redistributes warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to northern Europe. As the Gulf Stream makes its deposits of warm water along the coasts of Great Britain and northwestern Europe, it keeps the temperatures there warmer than they would be otherwise.

The worry is that, when Arctic ice melts as a result of global warming, huge amounts of fresh water will pour into the North Atlantic and slow down the Gulf Stream. A study of circulation in the North Atlantic has discovered that there already has been a 30 percent reduction in currents flowing north from the Gulf Stream [source: Pearce]. A slowed Gulf Stream could potentially lead to dramatic cooling in Europe



There is really no evidence to support that hypothesis (not a "theory"). From SkS:

"In recent years there has been a huge debate on how global warming may impact the Gulf Stream and the AMOC. A major consideration is the potential for a slowdown or stop of the AMOC in response to freshwater from the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which lowers the density of the surface waters and puts the brakes on the thermohaline component of the AMOC. The AMOC has a considerable influence over European climate from the northward heat transport by the Gulf Stream and a slowdown or halt of the AMOC could have a large impact on climate and even induce abrupt climate changes (Alley et al, 2002; Alley, 2007). The IPCC Assessment Report 4 considered various models, estimating up to a 50% slowdown in the AMOC by 2100, though none predicted a complete halt. More recent studies support the view that it is very unlikely that the AMOC will undergo any abrupt transition this century (Allison et al., 2009). Though, between 1957 and 2004 there are indications of a 30% slowdown in the AMOC at 25oN (Bryden et al., 2005). Keenlyside et al. (2008) forecasts that the AMOC will weaken over the next decade, but they argue that large uncertainties exist in previous measurements of AMOC variability due to poor observation and modelling analyses. Recently, Willis (2010) used satellite observations of sea surface height and sensor buoy observations of velocity, salinity and temperature of the Atlantic Ocean at 41oN and found no significant change in the AMOC strength between 2002 and 2009. Despite interannual fluctuations, observations show that it's unlikely there has been any significant slowing of the AMOC during the past 20 years.

Surface freshwater plays an important role for ocean circulation by its influence on the formation of deep water masses. A stronger deep circulation may increase northward heat transport by the AMOC, while a weaker deep circulation may promote less northward heat transport (Born et al., 2009). Barreiro et al. (2008) found that northern Atlantic waters have freshened rapidly in the past few decades and heat transported northward by the thermohaline circulation has decreased. It's expected that this freshening could increase further through intensified high-latitiude precipitation and glacial melt-water related to global warming. Vellinga et al. (2008) examined various model results that attempt to quantify how the AMOC responds to different melt-water fluxes from Greenland. In one model a large enough flux, or rate of flow, of melt-water to shutdown the AMOC was created, which resulted in a cooling of surface air temperature in excess of 15oC over the Norwegian and Barents Seas, with a lesser degree of cooling over the whole hemisphere. Most models that investigate increasing greenhouse gas scenarios predict that the AMOC will slow down as a result of such forcing (Driesschaert et al., 2007; Meehl et al., 2007). However, other model results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols may have delayed a greenhouse gas induced weakening of the AMOC by reflecting inbound solar radiation and partially offsetting greenhouse gas warming.

Hodell et al. (2009) present evidence for a slowdown of the AMOC during the early part of the Last Interglacial from proxy data taken from marine core sediment in the Iceland basin. They suggest that slow current speed detected at the locality may have been the result of an increased meltwater flux in the Nordic Seas due to peak summer insolation. Their findings indicate that the slowdown of circulation happened when climate was warmer than present and the Greenland Ice Sheet was in retreat. This slowdown is supported by computer modelling studies of the Last Interglacial, which estimates that the AMOC was ~20% weaker between 127 and 125 ka (Groger et al., 2007). Using pollen based climate reconstructions, Field et al. (1994) suggest that instability of the AMOC due to high summer insolation and increased precipitation may have led to cold winters in northern Europe. However, this situation ended when the freshwater flux from ice-sheet melting decreased and a newly enhanced thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic was likely to have extended the interglacial warmth during the latter part of the Last Interglacial. This additional heat transport may also have increased snowfall in Arctic regions through enhanced evaporation and precipitation, facilitating the return to glacial conditions (McManus et al., 2002)."

The Ice Age will have to wait again.
Quoting 30. Grothar:



When I planted them, I never thought they would last :):)
so it was you was it
Quoting 29. wunderkidcayman:

It's coming back up






Those sudden jumps look really weird, just like the ones in late March/early April. I'd wait a couple days to make sure it's not glitching out.
Quoting 32. Naga5000:

The Ice Age will have to wait again.


there is not a soul on this planet that knows
what's to come or effects or outcomes from our influences on the forces of nature
all we know for certain is nature can and will be sure to respond
Quoting 21. Neapolitan:

Cabbage trees. They don't grow where it's hot; they thrive in cool climates, such as New Zealand's South Island (where they're from). They're not related to palms at all; one of their closest relatives is asparagus.

(FWIW, there are even some growing in Norway about five degrees south of the Arctic Circle.)


It's strange that they wouldn't be related to palms at all, I could see why some could confuse it as a type of palm because it has several characteristics that resemble one. Although I can also identify why it isn't one. Still, I'm surprised it isn't simply a colder climate relative.

Quoting 36. Jedkins01:



It's strange that they wouldn't be related to palms at all, I could see why some could confuse it as a type of palm because it has several characteristics that resemble one. Although I can also identify why it isn't one. Still, I'm surprised it isn't simply a colder climate relative.




They are know locally as palm trees where I am from ...
terrible landslides after heavy rain nw columbia bbc
Quoting 38. islander101010:

terrible landslides after heavy rain nw columbia bbc


South Carolina or the country? If the country, where?

I guess I will have to google it...

On Edit: Salgar, Colombia... Pictures are brutal.
Quoting 11. Webberweather53:

Thanks Dr. Masters. Here's the ERSSTv4 1870-1899 tri-monthly ONI I've calculated using the CPC's methodology of a 30 yr sliding base period updated every 5 years. Check out the "Super" El Ninos in 1877-78 & 1888-89 w/ anomalies well above 2.0C. I'll leave the individual dataset values (from HADCRUT4, ERSSTv3b, HADISST, Kaplan, etc) to the nearest hundredth because I plan on merging the values derived from all the datasets together into a "super ensemble" averaged to the nearest tenth that, when supplemented with Wolter's extended MEI, will lend confidence to & reveal a substantial amount of reliable information about ENSO behavior all the back into the mid-late 19th century.




This is really interesting, I've tracked the Enso since 14 and I was wondering if you could make a table from 1800-1870
Quoting 27. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks like some big hail on the supercell in southwestern Texas:




With a TBSS signature very notable on the CC product down-radial of the highest reflectivity, I would agree there is/was some large hail.
(i'm trying to sound really smart!)


Quoting 36. Jedkins01:



It's strange that they wouldn't be related to palms at all, I could see why some could confuse it as a type of palm because it has several characteristics that resemble one. Although I can also identify why it isn't one. Still, I'm surprised it isn't simply a colder climate relative.


Perhaps it's a connifer?
43. bwi
Big story I'm following today is the extreme heat wave in the NWT Canada.

Inuvik Airport - Record values
Averages and Extremes for May 18:
Averages and Extremes Value Year
Average Maximum Temperature
Average Minimum Temperature
Frequency of Precipitation
Highest Temperature (2006-2013) 16.7°C 2009
Lowest Temperature (2006-2013) -6.7°C 2013

Current Temp 27C
MDR - Main Development region sir
Quoting 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



there is not a soul on this planet that knows
what's to come or effects or outcomes from our influences on the forces of nature
all we know for certain is nature can and will be sure to respond


True, but we can make really good guesses based on what we do know. I think that's the point, right? Our best evidence tells us that in the past, the collapse of the amoc resulted in the creation of a new enhanced thermohaline hence low probability for an ice age commeth if it were to happen again, which evidence shows it is slowing, but no collapse is evident.

My only goal here is an accurate interpretation of what we know, the uncertainty monster is real, but it sure isn't the stuff of nightmares.
Man 45 comments? I guess everyone's off celebrating VIctoria's Day festivities [Keeper].

Hot day by Cape Fear, I had 93 on my therm around 3:30 today with 65% humidity.
Quoting 20. ACSeattle:


Not palms. Dracenas, I think


Concur. Not Palm. They are indeed family of YUCCA Plants/Trees.
I have noticed this with the plus system.....

People who believe in climate change have more Facebook friends than those who do not consider climate change a problem. Juha Itkonen’s dissertation in economics shows that values and social networks are linked to opinions about climate change.

Studies which examine the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth contain methodological flaws, and consequently underestimate the need for climate policy. Meanwhile, conflicting opinions on climate change remain fixed, as social networks keep advocates and opponents separate.

Link
Quoting 46. win1gamegiantsplease:

Man 45 comments? I guess everyone's off celebrating VIctoria's Day festivities [Keeper].

Hot day by Cape Fear, I had 93 on my therm around 3:30 today with 65% humidity.
88 with the humidex here today ya lots of fireworks many leaving the building tonight to go watch or go set some off in the next half hr or so tomorrow back to work short week coming up

high reflectivity core-circled


correlation coefficient product-TBSS (circled) down radial (away from radar site) from reflectivity core

Three body scatter spike (TBSS)

2015 dark snow science expedition takes shape
Posted on May 18, 2015 by Jason Box
Reply

Our cause to inform the global public what’s happening in the remote but important Arctic leads us to our third Greenland science expedition taking shape.

Building on our past experience, our work this summer is to continue flying UAV missions over Greenland ice, across an elevation profile to track the darkness of the bare ice area expanding as snowline climbs the ice sheet. Our UAV range this year is 4 times what it was last year, 200 km+! We’re flying higher end instruments over the ice dark ice fields, sheet’s blue lakes, river networks, moulins and crevasses, producing unprecedented visual and science material.

We’ve got two scientific papers in late stages of progress, finding that melt is amplified by not only fire activity but surface ice algae. Another surprising twist is to be released in a study nearing submission for publication in a top journal.

In a strong affirmation of the support from nearly 800 pledges, that has made possible Greenland expeditions in 2013 and 2014, we’ve secured funding for much of this year’s activity from a well known foundation who’s identity will may share soon.


Link
Quoting 50. beell:


high reflectivity core-circled


correlation coefficient product-TBSS (circled) down radial (away from radar site) from reflectivity core

Three body scatter spike (TBSS)



Easily softball size hail or bigger.
Quoting 52. TimTheWxMan:




Easily softball size hail or bigger.


The spike also is evident on the reflectivity grab. Just stands out better on CC.

Some 2" hail reported.
Projections from Scripps



Indian Ocean storing up heat from global warming, says study

The world’s oceans are playing a game of hot potato with the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions.

Scientists have zeroed in on the tropical Pacific as a major player in taking up that heat. But while it might have held that heat for a bit, new research shows that the Pacific has passed the potato to the Indian Ocean, which has seen an unprecedented rise in heat content over the past decade.

The new work builds on a series of papers that have tracked the causes for what’s been dubbed the global warming slowdown, a period over the past 15 years that has seen surface temperatures rise slower than they did the previous decade. Shifts in Pacific tradewinds have helped sequester heat from the surface to the top 2,300 feet of the ocean. But unlike Vegas, what happens in the Pacific doesn’t stay in the Pacific.


Link
Storm Data for January 2015 was submitted a while ago. I have updated the Wikipedia page; you can view details on individual tornadoes here. There were 27 tornadoes confirmed throughout the month, compared to the 1991-2010 average of 35, equating to 77% of average.

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 2
Damage from tornadoes: $966,000

58. bwi
Tuktoyaktuk Airport - Record values
Averages and Extremes for May 18:
Averages and Extremes Value Year
Average Maximum Temperature -0.5°C
Average Minimum Temperature -7.4°C
Frequency of Precipitation 16.0%
Highest Temperature (1971-2010) 9.5°C 1981
Lowest Temperature (1971-2010) -14.8°C 2004
Greatest Precipitation (1971-2010) 2.4mm 1992
Greatest Rainfall (1971-2010) 1.6mm 2010
Greatest Snowfall (1971-2010) 2.4cm 1992
Most Snow on the Ground (1971-2010) 56.0cm 1972


22°C
°C °F
Observed at:
Tuktoyaktuk Airport
Date:
7:00 PM MDT Monday 18 May 2015
Condition:
Not observed
Pressure:
101.7 kPa
Tendency:
falling
Temperature:
21.7°C

Dewpoint:
4.0°C
Humidity:
31%
59. bwi
Granted, some of these reporting stations above the arctic circle don't have very long history, but breaking a high temp record from the last 35 years by more than 12C? Temps are forecast to stay very high in the region bordering the Beaufort Sea for at least a week.
Quoting 21. Neapolitan:

Cabbage trees. They don't grow where it's hot; they thrive in cool climates, such as New Zealand's South Island (where they're from). They're not related to palms at all; one of their closest relatives is asparagus.

(FWIW, there are even some growing in Norway about five degrees south of the Arctic Circle.)

I'll break out the chainsaw. You prepare the hollandaise ;)
Cody waiting on the next severe weather outbreak to observe:

Quoting 36. Jedkins01:



It's strange that they wouldn't be related to palms at all, I could see why some could confuse it as a type of palm because it has several characteristics that resemble one. Although I can also identify why it isn't one. Still, I'm surprised it isn't simply a colder climate relative.




It's strange, I got them confused with cabbage palms, AKA the Sabal palmetto tree which are native to southeastern North Carolina to Florida as well as Cuba and the Bahamas.



Wild "cabbage palms" on Bald Head Island, NC
Quoting 61. BaltimoreBrian:

Cody waiting on the next severe weather outbreak to observe:



I'd rather we get a break for a little while! Trying to keep the count on Wiki halfway close to the actual number being confirmed by WFOs is taking up a lot of time. I was still adding tornadoes at 2:30am this morning, lol.
Quoting 58. bwi:

Tuktoyaktuk Airport - Record values
Averages and Extremes for May 18:
Averages and Extremes Value Year
Average Maximum Temperature -0.5°C
Average Minimum Temperature -7.4°C
Frequency of Precipitation 16.0%
Highest Temperature (1971-2010) 9.5°C 1981
Lowest Temperature (1971-2010) -14.8°C 2004
Greatest Precipitation (1971-2010) 2.4mm 1992
Greatest Rainfall (1971-2010) 1.6mm 2010
Greatest Snowfall (1971-2010) 2.4cm 1992
Most Snow on the Ground (1971-2010) 56.0cm 1972


22°C
°C °F
Observed at:
Tuktoyaktuk Airport
Date:
7:00 PM MDT Monday 18 May 2015
Condition:
Not observed
Pressure:
101.7 kPa
Tendency:
falling
Temperature:
21.7°C

Dewpoint:
4.0°C
Humidity:
31%


That would be a monthly record for May according to the Wikipedia article on Tuktoyaktuk.
Quoting 43. bwi:

Big story I'm following today is the extreme heat wave in the NWT Canada.

Inuvik Airport - Record values
Averages and Extremes for May 18:
Averages and Extremes Value Year
Average Maximum Temperature
Average Minimum Temperature
Frequency of Precipitation
Highest Temperature (2006-2013) 16.7°C 2009
Lowest Temperature (2006-2013) -6.7°C 2013

Current Temp 27C


That would be a monthly record for May according to the Wikipedia article on Inuvik.
Quoting 65. DCSwithunderscores:



That would be a monthly record for May according to the Wikipedia article on Inuvik.
gonna make for a quick melt of the dirt direct sunlight surface heat is higher and travels deeper over a long period of time u get a week of that heat and well its not looking too good
59. bwi

Great reporting , just tell everyone where the Tuktoyaktuk Airport is . Is it New Zealand, Russia, Alaska, or Canada ?

I'm following this event , so I know.
But , this brings up a larger point here.

Folks,
Don't post radar images with no names on the image and assume we know . In fact don't post things, without some context.

Something like :
12 mins. ago Joplin , Mo.

Context, means a great deal. And typing just 19 characters makes all the difference to a reader who doesn't know there are places like Tuktoyaktuk.

Insert smiley face here.

Quoting 63. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'd rather we get a break for a little while! Trying to keep the count on Wiki halfway close to the actual number being confirmed by WFOs is taking up a lot of time. I was still adding tornadoes at 2:30am this morning, lol.


Well someone's gotta make Wikipedia a reliable source, save thousands of high schooler's lives. Then again, have you seen pictures of people editing the NBA playoff teams pages? Under the page for Chicago Bulls, someone edited the sidebar and change the owner to "LeBron James" and it stuck for a minute.
I expect the East to see a real nice cooldown after Memorial Day thanks to Dolphin!!!
Quoting 67. ColoradoBob1:

59. bwi

Great reporting , just tell everyone where the Tuktoyaktuk Airport is . Is it New Zealand, Russia, Alaska, or Canada ?

I'm following this event , so I know.
But , this brings up a larger point here.

Folks,
Don't post radar images with no names on the image and assume we know . In fact don't post things, without some context.

Something like :
12 mins. ago Joplin , Mo.

Context, means a great deal. And typing just 19 characters makes all the difference to a reader who doesn't know there are places like Tuktoyaktuk.

Insert smiley face here.




Quoting 66. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

gonna make for a quick melt of the dirt direct sunlight surface heat is higher and travels deeper over a long period of time u get a week of that heat and well its not looking too good


It's going to be a wild summer up North. And this heat wave is kicks it off :

The 10 forecast at Fairbanks calls for 85F degrees on Saturday , it's 77F degrees there now.

Link

They started breaking records there 3 days ago.

70. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:19 AM GMT on May 19, 2015

Crackerjack, just simply crackerjack.

Whats the context ? Today ? Last week > The summer of 2009 ?
The fire in South Florida is growing.

Forest / Wild Fire in USA on Monday, 18 May, 2015 at 03:28 (03:28 AM) UTC.
Description
A fire in several areas of the Big Cypress National Preserve east of Naples that started nine days ago has multiplied due to lightning strikes and burned more than 15,000 acres, threatening private and public buildings, roads and sensitive wildlife areas. The fires have also been a threat to traffic along Alligator Alley (I-75) with the Florida Highway Patrol warning motorists that it could close the interstate at any time due to low-visibility due to smoke. The first fire started May 8 when lightning ignited a blaze in what is called the Ellison area. That fire has now burned some 7,908 acres, said Katherine Corrigan, public information officer for the preserve. She said that after the first fire started three more ignited from lightning on May 10 and another on either May 12 or 13. The fires have burned a total of 15,221 acres since May 8, Corrigan said, with about 5 percent of the fires contained. Corrigan said that no structures have been destroyed or damaged by the fire and firefighters were also igniting vegetation around camps to create a fire break for advancing flames. There are many private camps with structures are large as cabins or as small as lean-tos in the preserve, she said. "We are under very dry conditions," she said, adding that the threat of fire won't lessen until more rain adds to the water table and provides more moisture. Corrigan said that due to the remote nature of some of the fires, firefighters use roads and natural barriers such as lakes and wet areas as fire breaks to limit the fire's spread and ground crews are working with aircraft to drop water. "We do that in areas where it is not safe to put firefighters," she said. "Some of the areas it takes three hours by swamp-buggy."
(more at link)
Quoting 72. ColoradoBob1:


70. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:19 AM GMT on May 19, 2015

Crackerjack, just simply crackerjack.

Whats the context ? Today ? Last week > The summer of 2009 ?
just bugging ya bob sorry
Quoting 40. windshear1993:

This is really interesting, I've tracked the Enso since 14 and I was wondering if you could make a table from 1800-1870


Unfortunately, to perform this analysis I need at least 15 years of preceding data at the beginning of a dataset to perform the proper ONI calculations, and given that the 3 datasets I'll use which extend the entire length of the record that will be analyzed (1870-present) (ERSSTv4, HADCRUT4, & Kaplan SSTv2, although ERSSTv3b extends the through 1850, it appears to be an outlier before 1885, hence it won't be incorporated into this "super ensemble" ONI record until 1900. Similarly, HADISST only goes back to 1870, which means it won't be analyzed & merged with the other reconstructions until at least 1885.), are only available through at the earliest, 1850. This limits the analysis, & any attempt to construct the ENSO record before 1870, requires increasing reliance upon proxy records from tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc, that are beyond the scope of what I'm attempting to accomplish, which is: apply NOAA's methodology to available SST reconstructions to re-create the ONI thru the mid-late 19th century that will thereby lend & garner support from the extended MEI record from Klaus Wolter which also happens to extend back only to about 1870. This analysis is necessary because Sea Surface Temperatures are the most significant component of the MEI index, exhibiting the highest correlations of any variable (~.95) due to the ocean's relative stability over time, thanks in part to its high heat capacity/potential, unlike the atmosphere which is far more susceptible to transient, higher frequency modes that don't represent ENSO. Maybe several years down the road, once I can attain a better understanding of & actually come upon some proxy records of my own, I might consider extending the ONI before 1870, but I currently have no intention of doing so.
infared as of 9 mins ago
u can see the warm sector up over cen ak nt then east se to nw ont
cool pool moving over the lakes with sweeping front coming off east
and convective rains over the sw

Quoting 10. 69Viking:

We haven't head rain along the beaches in NW Florida for weeks, I really wish the blocking feature would move out so we could get some rain.

Yes Viking! need it so bad: we got closer today though. That one cell in extreme western Okaloosa county was close enough to cause some cloudiness as the high clouds spread across the sky.
When it's to understandings things .
An image means nothing if I can't place it in space and time.

When it comes to beauty.
An image is beauty.

If we combine the two , we have understanding, and beauty.

Insert logic here.
Quoting 29. wunderkidcayman:

It's coming back up






Lotsa capping in the mid-levels, Sun Sun Sun

Quoting 62. win1gamegiantsplease:



It's strange, I got them confused with cabbage palms, AKA the Sabal palmetto tree which are native to southeastern North Carolina to Florida as well as Cuba and the Bahamas.



Wild "cabbage palms" on Bald Head Island, NC


To elaborate a bit, Sabal plametto is a species of palm reaching tree-like proportions that is native all the way from Bald Island, NC south and common in all parts of the FL Peninsula and west to Southern Louisiana and SE Texas. Interestingly, this species is not native to the northern FL Panhandle (I would assume the record freezes to 5F and below are a contributing factor) though planted specimens are fairly common there, and tend to look scrawny and less robust. Sabal palmetto is commonly planted as far north as Norfolk/VA Beach, VA and many died in early 2014 from the record cold (though many survived). There were even a couple tall specimens planted in front of one of the buildings in Washington DC that survived for a few years.

It has continued to be hot and dry here in the Orlando area, with sunny breezy days and somewhat humid nights. The heat has not been anything that unusual for May though. No mid-upper 90s to speak of though I can recall many a May where we had a heatwave just before the start of the rainy season sending temps to 96-98F for days on end. I'm hoping we skip right to a soggy, humid June pattern.
Quoting 63. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd rather we get a break for a little while! Trying to keep the count on Wiki halfway close to the actual number being confirmed by WFOs is taking up a lot of time. I was still adding tornadoes at 2:30am this morning, lol.

See, that's you drinking coffee at 2 a.m. to keep up! ;)
Quoting 80. HurrMichaelOrl:



To elaborate a bit, Sabal plametto is a species of palm reaching tree-like proportions that is native all the way from Bald Island, NC south and common in all parts of the FL Peninsula and west to Southern Louisiana and SE Texas. Interestingly, this species is not native to the northern FL Panhandle (I would assume the record freezes to 5F and below are a contributing factor) though planted specimens are fairly common there, and tend to look scrawny and less robust. Sabal palmetto is commonly planted as far north as Norfolk/VA Beach, VA and many died in early 2014 from the record cold (though many survived). There were even a couple tall specimens planted in front of one of the buildings in Washington DC that survived for a few years.

It has continued to be hot and dry here in the Orlando area, with sunny breezy days and somewhat humid nights. The heat has not been anything that unusual for May though. No mid-upper 90s to speak of though I can recall many a May where we had a heatwave just before the start of the rainy season sending temps to 96-98F for days on end. I'm hoping we skip right to a soggy, humid June pattern.


I say Southeast NC because wild specimen, likely from birds, have carried palms to south of Kure Beach (Fort Fisher area) and Cape Hatteras. I have heard that Sabal palmettos have moved westward due to their popularity as a cold-hardy plant (speaking of BHI, their strains have been shown to be resistant up to -10 F or more) so the more they're planted the more winds/animals carry their seeds so to speak.

And it's been hot here the last couple of days, today got up to 93 near me off Wrightsville Av, the humidity was about average this time of year but a little high for staying outdoors for long periods of time. Thankfully a cold front is going to bring some showers and a cool down. Sabal palms like a good medium, sandy soil but more loamy than sand, as well as wet but not too dry. And fun fact about sabal palms, the sabal minor (aka the dwarf palmetto), they grow wild in the same range as the American alligator thrives, from east Texas and SE Oklahoma to NE North Carolina.
ColoradoBob, q.v.

This heat wave up north has fore runner.

It was 81F in Inuvik today.

No. 04
2014

RUSSIAN GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY

Page 68 -
NEW PERMAFROST FEATURE –
DEEP CRATER IN CENTRAL YAMAL
(WEST SIBERIA, RUSSIA) AS A RESPONSE
TO LOCAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS


From the satellite images, we concluded
that the
crater was formed in the late 2013
or early 2014. One can see that at least
until 2013/10/09 in the place of the crater,
there is a hill 40–45 m in diameter. After
2013/11/01 satellite images yield a series of
pixels of low reflectivity. The size of the area
was increasing at least until 2014/04/03.
Presumably this specific reflectivity results
from water-saturated deposits entrained
from the crater forming a parapet along
with


The thaw of the permafrost at the top of
the hole initiates a process that will expand
the hole and form a lake. Possibly, some
Yamal lakes formed during the Holocene
climatic optimum about 10,000 years ago
and previously considered to be thermokarst
lakes, formed through an analogous process.


It is highly probable that such landforms
will be generated in the future in sui table geological and permafrost conditions.
The origin of this crater is attributed to
the anomalously warm summer of 2012,
the increased ground temperature and
amount of unfrozen water in the permafrost,
expanding of cryopegs, formation of a
pingo-like mound and its outburst due to
high pressure produced by gas hydrate
decomposition within permafrost. Similar
temperature anomalies may increase in
number in the future decades, presenting
risks for human activities in the region.

Link

85. BaltimoreBrian

You do good work .
Many thanks.
If one reads the Russia paper, one concludes that these extreme heat events travel deep into the Earth . And all hell breaks out.

Our past is not prolog.

Buckle your chin straps. Kids,
Sabal minor, the dwarf palmetto, is native as far north as Monkey Island, 10 miles south of the VA/NC border. I remember them around Elizabeth City in the woods to the east, near water.

Alligators' extreme range is at Merchants Millpond state park about 25 miles below the NC/VA border.

Zoom out the maps for better scale.

Location of Monkey Island

Location of Merchants Millpond park (Lassiter Swamp) where the northernmost alligators are.

Where I was raised
Quoting 80. HurrMichaelOrl:



To elaborate a bit, Sabal plametto is a species of palm reaching tree-like proportions that is native all the way from Bald Island, NC south and common in all parts of the FL Peninsula and west to Southern Louisiana and SE Texas. Interestingly, this species is not native to the northern FL Panhandle (I would assume the record freezes to 5F and below are a contributing factor) though planted specimens are fairly common there, and tend to look scrawny and less robust. Sabal palmetto is commonly planted as far north as Norfolk/VA Beach, VA and many died in early 2014 from the record cold (though many survived). There were even a couple tall specimens planted in front of one of the buildings in Washington DC that survived for a few years.

It has continued to be hot and dry here in the Orlando area, with sunny breezy days and somewhat humid nights. The heat has not been anything that unusual for May though. No mid-upper 90s to speak of though I can recall many a May where we had a heatwave just before the start of the rainy season sending temps to 96-98F for days on end. I'm hoping we skip right to a soggy, humid June pattern.


Also called Washintonian Palms in So. Florida... I've heard sabal palm as well. I really don't like them, because they need trimming and when the branches fall they have spikes on them. The grow (in South Dade anyways) 40' high pretty regularly.
Quoting 80. HurrMichaelOrl:



To elaborate a bit, Sabal plametto is a species of palm reaching tree-like proportions that is native all the way from Bald Island, NC south and common in all parts of the FL Peninsula and west to Southern Louisiana and SE Texas. Interestingly, this species is not native to the northern FL Panhandle (I would assume the record freezes to 5F and below are a contributing factor) though planted specimens are fairly common there, and tend to look scrawny and less robust. Sabal palmetto is commonly planted as far north as Norfolk/VA Beach, VA and many died in early 2014 from the record cold (though many survived). There were even a couple tall specimens planted in front of one of the buildings in Washington DC that survived for a few years.

It has continued to be hot and dry here in the Orlando area, with sunny breezy days and somewhat humid nights. The heat has not been anything that unusual for May though. No mid-upper 90s to speak of though I can recall many a May where we had a heatwave just before the start of the rainy season sending temps to 96-98F for days on end. I'm hoping we skip right to a soggy, humid June pattern.

I also have always wondered why the sabal wasn't native to parts of the FL Panhandle (like where I live). I too have speculated as to if it really gets that much colder here. I will say, there are sabal palms in my area that have to be old enough to have survived the January 1985 freeze where it got to 4 degrees.
Here is an example of them when they are small. (Washintonia...) I added the N by mistake.

Quoting 91. opal92nwf:


I also have always wondered why the sabal wasn't native to parts of the FL Panhandle (like where I live). I too have speculated as to if it really gets that much colder here. I will say, there are sabal palms in my area that have to be old enough to have survived the January 1985 freeze where it got to 4 degrees.


Depending on the strain, they can go below 0 F with little difficulty. As a NC native, the Bald Head Island types can survive sub-zero temps which are the ones they generally plant along the OBX and Hampton Roads areas. Although supposedly native palms have been observed near Buxton on Hatteras Island.

Quoting 67. ColoradoBob1:

59. bwi

Great reporting , just tell everyone where the Tuktoyaktuk Airport is . Is it New Zealand, Russia, Alaska, or Canada ?

I'm following this event , so I know.
But , this brings up a larger point here.

Folks,
Don't post radar images with no names on the image and assume we know . In fact don't post things, without some context.

Something like :
12 mins. ago Joplin , Mo.

Context, means a great deal. And typing just 19 characters makes all the difference to a reader who doesn't know there are places like Tuktoyaktuk.

Insert smiley face here.


Thanks. This is a very good suggestion. When I read "Tuktoyaktuk" I immediately thought NW Greenland. Then I had to do a Google search to find it's a hamlet near the Mackenzie River Delta, soon to be connected to a permanent highway system.   
Quoting 90. Dakster:



Also called Washintonian Palms in So. Florida... I've heard sabal palm as well. I really don't like them, because they need trimming and when the branches fall they have spikes on them. The grow (in South Dade anyways) 40' high pretty regularly.


In NC we have lots of sabal minor's, which are called dwarf palmettos. They don't need trimming but if you need them removed, their trunks are mostly underground which makes for tough gardening. They're nice around the edges of a garden and in the woods but out in the open they take up too much space, relocating them (after all the work) is better. Brunswick and New Hanover (outside of the small population that might grow in Dare County Link) counties do have areas where Sabal palmetto trees thrive, especially between Fort Fisher and Bald Head Island.

You have to be careful when planting Sabal palmettos. The soil needs sand, they need more water than other subtropical plants but not too much, and the trimming is a task. As long as the trunk is embedded at a 2-3 meter height (on average) and the center bud isn't trimmed too far back (the central bud is the Achilles heel of the palmetto tree), they're pretty easy to grow, especially in their native zones (NC to FL) where several strains can take advantage of the soil and climate.
Quoting 94. rayduray2013:


Thanks. This is a very good suggestion. When I read "Tuktoyaktuk" I immediately thought NW Greenland. Then I had to do a Google search to find it's a hamlet near the Mackenzie River Delta, soon to be connected to a permanent highway system.   


So soon I will be able to drive to Tuk? I only know where it is because of ice road truckers. One day I will drive to Yellowknife as well. Just so I can say I did. Probably go on a fishing trip. Nowadays you about have to fly into some remote lake to actually have a chance at catching a large wild fish as everything else is so fished out.
Quoting 73. Skyepony:


Very smokey tonight in central Collier County tonight. Live in 12 miles east of Naples.
Quoting 95. win1gamegiantsplease:



In NC we have lots of sabal minor's, which are called dwarf palmettos. They don't need trimming but if you need them removed, their trunks are mostly underground which makes for tough gardening. They're nice around the edges of a garden and in the woods but out in the open they take up too much space, relocating them (after all the work) is better. Brunswick and New Hanover (outside of the small population that might grow in Dare County Link) counties do have areas where Sabal palmetto trees thrive, especially between Fort Fisher and Bald Head Island.

You have to be careful when planting Sabal palmettos. The soil needs sand, they need more water than other subtropical plants but not too much, and the trimming is a task. As long as the trunk is embedded at a 2-3 meter height (on average) and the center bud isn't trimmed too far back (the central bud is the Achilles heel of the palmetto tree), they're pretty easy to grow, especially in their native zones (NC to FL) where several strains can take advantage of the soil and climate.

Sabal palmettos really need not vigorous pruning, their natural form is a full globe of green leaves. Cutting off green leaves will only make it harder for the tree and more susceptible to other stresses.
This is how it should look

Not this
Quoting 16. LargoFl:

...A study of circulation in the North Atlantic has discovered that there already has been a 30 percent reduction in currents flowing north from the Gulf Stream [source: Pearce]. A slowed Gulf Stream could potentially lead to dramatic cooling in Europe



Actually, it's a hypothesis, not a theory. And it's weak even as a hypothesis.

If the gulf stream were to significantly slow/shutdown, it could potentially lead to regional cooling across the UK and Northern Europe. But you have to keep in mind that global warming and cooling are a matter of energy balance. A little cooling over northern Europe isn't going to offset the warming everywhere else. And even if all the affected regions became iced over, it wouldn't do enough to Earth's albedo to bring about an ice age.

If the warmth can't make the trip to northern Europe, then it will find some other place to go (probably up Davis Strait into Baffin Bay) . As long as their is a blanket of increased GHGs floating around, the heat isn't going to be escaping into space; it's going to stay in the system. The planet can't cool unless it gives off more heat than it receives, and short of some massive calamities or an unprecedented worldwide effort that isn't going to be happening anytime soon.



Opal. I always had a canopy of dead leaves underneath and those would need to get pruned. I would only prune off the dead or about to die leaves on mine. They wouldn't look at bare as your bottom pictures, but it certainly wasn't a "globe" of green either. My queen palms are better, but every once in a while you gotta go and prune them too. Should be once a year, I used to do it every 2 or so. Expensive to hire someone to do these things as well.

Anyways, with the new heat coming, this could be a problem for more northern areas.

Starting to finally cool off at 10:15pm. Sun is still brightly shining outside too. Hope to see the 30s again in the morning.
Whoops! I've Just corrected the line about the May precipitation record in Phoenix:

"The current monthly total of 1.17” in Phoenix makes it the second-wettest May on record, behind only May 1930 (1.31")."

--Bob H.
Interesting. I hope that California can get in on some rain. Although I think they need more than 1.17"
Quoting 66. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

gonna make for a quick melt of the dirt direct sunlight surface heat is higher and travels deeper over a long period of time u get a week of that heat and well its not looking too good

That melting and permafrost thawing is not just a cycle of freeze and melt!
Any gases which are trapped in the soil will be released so they wont be there for the re freezing, the structure of the soil will be changed by there disappearance or absence.
Added to the above, as its only mid may there are months more of above freezing temps, add moisture which in reality will already be there from the melt process and decomposition of any buried organic matter will set in leading to more gas release.
We can assume that a lot of methane and CO2 will permanently escape to the air above.
Next problem will be a severe drying out of the surface which will lead to the increased possibility of moss and peat fires.
As there are not many effective fire fighting methods in the area, the scenario leads to a potentially very interesting summer in the north of North America.
We can possibly start to consider this as one of the most significant events of potential problems in recent years.
I have yet to see any reference to any of this in any media articles.
Quoting 15. LargoFl:

yeah the gulfstream really helps a lot in many ways..if it were to shut down or..slow down a lot..many things we take for granted today might not be there anymore....

From RealClimate:

What’s going on in the North Atlantic?

The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.

[...]


Fig. 3 Time series of the temperature difference between the subpolar North Atlantic and the entire northern hemisphere, which can be interpreted as an indicator of the strength of the Atlantic circulation.

[...]

What are the impacts of a slowdown?

The consequences of a large reduction in ocean overturning would look nothing like the Hollywood film The Day After Tomorrow. But they would not be harmless either – e.g. for sea level (Levermann et al. 2005) particularly along the US east coast (Yin et al. 2009), marine ecosystems, fisheries and possibly even storminess in Europe (Woollings et al. 2012). We have studied these consequences some years ago in an interdisciplinary project with colleagues from Bremerhaven, Hamburg and Norway – the results are summarized in Kuhlbrodt et al. 2009.

If our analysis is correct, then this indicates that climate models underestimate the weakening of the Atlantic circulation in response to global warming – probably because the flow in these models is too stable (see Hofmann and Rahmstorf 2009). Although these models predict a significant weakening for the future, they do not suggest this as early as the observations show it (see Fig. 2 of our paper). That the real flow may be more unstable than previously thought would be bad news for the future.

If the circulation weakens too much it can even completely break down – the AMOC has a well-known “tipping point” (Lenton et al., 2008). The latest IPCC report (just like the previous one) estimates a probability of up to 10% that this could happen as early as this century. However, this assessment is based on models that may underestimate the risk, as mentioned above. Expert surveys indicate that many researchers assess the risk higher than the (generally conservative) IPCC, as is the case for sea level. In a detailed survey (Kriegler et al 2009), the 16 experts interviewed saw already at moderate global warming (2-4 °C) a probability of a ‘tipping’ (major reorganisation) of the flow between 5 and 40 percent. With strong global warming (4-8 °C) this probability was even estimated as between 20 and 65 percent.

Complete article with links & references >>

------------------

Also => A new paper by L. C. Jackson et al. on the impacts of an AMOC shutdown:

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

Abstract

The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe’s landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.
Quoting 38. islander101010:

terrible landslides after heavy rain nw columbia bbc

Colombia flooding, mudslide kill at least 58
Disaster hits about 100 kilometres southwest of Medellin
CBCNews, The Associated Press Posted: May 18, 2015 12:43 PM ET Last Updated: May 19, 2015 3:04 AM ET


Source.


[Edit: the video I've posted earlier probably wasn't from this recent mudslide in Colombia, so I've replaced it]


Aerial view.

---------------------------
India:
6 Pilgrims Killed in Flash Floods in Tamil Nadu's Western Ghats
Tamil Nadu | Written by J Sam Daniel Stalin | Updated: May 18, 2015 14:30 IST
‘Shocking’ revelation finds $5.3tn subsidy estimate for 2015 is greater than the total health spending of all the world’s governments

From the Guardian:

Fossil fuels subsidised by $10m a minute, says IMF

Fossil fuel companies are benefitting from global subsidies of $5.3tn (£3.4tn) a year, equivalent to $10m a minute every day, according to a startling new estimate by the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF calls the revelation “shocking” and says the figure is an “extremely robust” estimate of the true cost of fossil fuels. The $5.3tn subsidy estimated for 2015 is greater than the total health spending of all the world’s governments.

The vast sum is largely due to polluters not paying the costs imposed on governments by the burning of coal, oil and gas. These include the harm caused to local populations by air pollution as well as to people across the globe affected by the floods, droughts and storms being driven by climate change.

Nicholas Stern, an eminent climate economist at the London School of Economics, said: “This very important analysis shatters the myth that fossil fuels are cheap by showing just how huge their real costs are. There is no justification for these enormous subsidies for fossil fuels, which distort markets and damages economies, particularly in poorer countries.”

Lord Stern said that even the IMF’s vast subsidy figure was a significant underestimate: “A more complete estimate of the costs due to climate change would show the implicit subsidies for fossil fuels are much bigger even than this report suggests.”

Read more >>




Guardian graphic Source: IMF
Quoting 104. Xandra:


From RealClimate:

What’s going on in the North Atlantic?

The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.

[...]


Fig. 3 Time series of the temperature difference between the subpolar North Atlantic and the entire northern hemisphere, which can be interpreted as an indicator of the strength of the Atlantic circulation.

[...]

What are the impacts of a slowdown?

The consequences of a large reduction in ocean overturning would look nothing like the Hollywood film The Day After Tomorrow. But they would not be harmless either – e.g. for sea level (Levermann et al. 2005) particularly along the US east coast (Yin et al. 2009), marine ecosystems, fisheries and possibly even storminess in Europe (Woollings et al. 2012). We have studied these consequences some years ago in an interdisciplinary project with colleagues from Bremerhaven, Hamburg and Norway – the results are summarized in Kuhlbrodt et al. 2009.

If our analysis is correct, then this indicates that climate models underestimate the weakening of the Atlantic circulation in response to global warming – probably because the flow in these models is too stable (see Hofmann and Rahmstorf 2009). Although these models predict a significant weakening for the future, they do not suggest this as early as the observations show it (see Fig. 2 of our paper). That the real flow may be more unstable than previously thought would be bad news for the future.

If the circulation weakens too much it can even completely break down – the AMOC has a well-known “tipping point” (Lenton et al., 2008). The latest IPCC report (just like the previous one) estimates a probability of up to 10% that this could happen as early as this century. However, this assessment is based on models that may underestimate the risk, as mentioned above. Expert surveys indicate that many researchers assess the risk higher than the (generally conservative) IPCC, as is the case for sea level. In a detailed survey (Kriegler et al 2009), the 16 experts interviewed saw already at moderate global warming (2-4 °C) a probability of a ‘tipping’ (major reorganisation) of the flow between 5 and 40 percent. With strong global warming (4-8 °C) this probability was even estimated as between 20 and 65 percent.

Complete article with links & references >>

------------------

Also => A new paper by L. C. Jackson et al. on the impacts of an AMOC shutdown:

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

Abstract

The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe’s landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.
Many thanks for finding this
gee Texas sure is coming out of their drought fast,hope their water supplies are now full...
Good Morning all...



400

WTNT80 EGRR 190417



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.05.2015



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 35.2N 75.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 22.05.2015 35.2N 75.7W WEAK

12UTC 22.05.2015 35.9N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.05.2015 38.8N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.05.2015 44.0N 53.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.05.2015 52.5N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.05.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

112. leec1
Quoting 108. LargoFl:

gee Texas sure is coming out of their drought fast,hope their water supplies are now full...


Cant you send this rain west :-)
there were plenty of floods and disasters before we started polluting this world geez
114. MahFL
Quoting 21. Neapolitan:

Cabbage trees. They don't grow where it's hot; they thrive in cool climates, such as New Zealand's South Island (where they're from). They're not related to palms at all; one of their closest relatives is asparagus.

(FWIW, there are even some growing in Norway about five degrees south of the Arctic Circle.)


Yer, they are Cordyline australis. The point is they grow where the winters are mild, and mostly frost free, which is the west coast of Scotland, due to the warm Gulf Stream. They don't grow in the Highlands of Scotland.
115. MahFL
Quoting 113. islander101010:

there were plenty of floods and disasters before we started polluting this world geez


Some of the floods were Biblical too.
home depot just came out and said their sales have been hit hard by this past harsh winter. stock market could be in for a bear run as the world markets are feeble.
Quoting 117. yoboi:

Why would temps be adjusted in the early 1900's???
Better question: why would you once again post nonsense from a denialist site like NTZ???? Science, yoboi. Stick with science; all else is foolishness...
Quoting 116. islander101010:

home depot just came out and said their sales have been hit hard by this past harsh winter. stock market could be in for a bear run as the world markets are feeble.


Not exactly as we may have different sources of information.

Source CNBC:

This is breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Home Depot delivered quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts' expectations on Tuesday.

The home improvement giant posted first-quarter earnings excluding items of $1.16 per share, up from 96 cents a share in the year-earlier period.

Revenue rose to $20.89 billion from $19.69 billion a year ago.

Wall Street had expected the company to deliver quarterly earnings per share of $1.15 on $20.81 billion in revenue, according to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters.

Same-store sales were up 6.1 percent, above the 5.7 percent increase expected.
Quoting 117. yoboi:



Why would temps be adjusted in the early 1900's???

Just for you mate.
Quoting 119. AreadersinceWilma:


Not exactly as we may have different sources of information.

Source CNBC:

This is breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Home Depot delivered quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts' expectations on Tuesday.

The home improvement giant posted first-quarter earnings excluding items of $1.16 per share, up from 96 cents a share in the year-earlier period.

Revenue rose to $20.89 billion from $19.69 billion a year ago.

Wall Street had expected the company to deliver quarterly earnings per share of $1.15 on $20.81 billion in revenue, according to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters.

Same-store sales were up 6.1 percent, above the 5.7 percent increase expected.
Maybe he's short HD and is hoping he'll spook the investors this morning. :-) Good thing the SEC doesn't frequent WU.
Quoting 117. yoboi:



Why would temps be adjusted in the early 1900's???


I don't even understand how that chart is supposed to work. It claims that Maine's "average temperature" (whatever that is), between 1895 and 2015 is 45.5F. Yet that's impossible -- virtually none of the data points on that chart ever approach 45.5. It's clear as day to anyone looking at that chart. The "Lewiston-Auburn Local" line doesn't approach 45.5 until the early 1990s before then dropping off below 45.5 again. The other two lines are at all times well below it. So clearly either the average temp is wrong or the graph lines that NOAA allegedly altered are wrong, or the whole thing is wrong.

If somebody were trying to show that NOAA falsified data to demonstrate a warming Maine climate, wouldn't they do so in a way that made sense?
Quoting 106. Xandra:
‘Shocking’ revelation finds $5.3tn subsidy estimate for 2015 is greater than the total health spending of all the world’s governments

From the Guardian:

Fossil fuels subsidised by $10m a minute, says IMF

Fossil fuel companies are benefitting from global subsidies of $5.3tn (£3.4tn) a year, equivalent to $10m a minute every day, according to a startling new estimate by the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF calls the revelation “shocking” and says the figure is an “extremely robust” estimate of the true cost of fossil fuels. The $5.3tn subsidy estimated for 2015 is greater than the total health spending of all the world’s governments.

The vast sum is largely due to polluters not paying the costs imposed on governments by the burning of coal, oil and gas. These include the harm caused to local populations by air pollution as well as to people across the globe affected by the floods, droughts and storms being driven by climate change.

Nicholas Stern, an eminent climate economist at the London School of Economics, said: “This very important analysis shatters the myth that fossil fuels are cheap by showing just how huge their real costs are. There is no justification for these enormous subsidies for fossil fuels, which distort markets and damages economies, particularly in poorer countries.”

Lord Stern said that even the IMF’s vast subsidy figure was a significant underestimate: “A more complete estimate of the costs due to climate change would show the implicit subsidies for fossil fuels are much bigger even than this report suggests.”

Read more >>




Guardian graphic Source: IMF
Did you read the working paper?
Quoting 122. MaineGuy:



I don't even understand how that chart is supposed to work. It claims that Maine's "average temperature" (whatever that is), between 1895 and 2015 is 45.5F. Yet that's impossible -- virtually none of the data points on that chart ever approach 45.5. It's clear as day to anyone looking at that chart. The "Lewiston-Auburn Local" line doesn't approach 45.5 until the early 1990s before then dropping off below 45.5 again. The other two lines are at all times well below it. So clearly either the average temp is wrong or the graph lines that NOAA allegedly altered are wrong, or the whole thing is wrong.

If somebody were trying to show that NOAA falsified data to demonstrate a warming Maine climate, wouldn't they do so in a way that made sense?

It is just another climate revisionist's nonsense.
Quoting 122. MaineGuy:



I don't even understand how that chart is supposed to work. It claims that Maine's "average temperature" (whatever that is), between 1895 and 2015 is 45.5F. Yet that's impossible -- virtually none of the data points on that chart ever approach 45.5. It's clear as day to anyone looking at that chart. The "Lewiston-Auburn Local" line doesn't approach 45.5 until the early 1990s before then dropping off below 45.5 again. The other two lines are at all times well below it. So clearly either the average temp is wrong or the graph lines that NOAA allegedly altered are wrong, or the whole thing is wrong.

If somebody were trying to show that NOAA falsified data to demonstrate a warming Maine climate, wouldn't they do so in a way that made sense?
First off, the chart contains the NOAA logo, although the graphic is not an NOAA one at all. For that reason alone, the original post below should be reported, and the comment deleted.

Second, quoting from a denialist site is reportable, as well.

Third, while the insinuation here (which is, frankly, all the denialists have left at this point) is that NOAA has tried to 'secretly" tweak Maine's temperature data, the organization has been very responsive to those asking. Here, for example, is a direct answer to the question posed by yoboi:

In early 2014, we changed to a new version of the dataset upon which our US temperatures are drawn. The new dataset took advantage of a lot of older data that hadn’t been digitized (from paper) when the old dataset was constructed. It also took advantage of advancements in quality assurance that detect station moves, changes in observing practices, etc.

We began sharing with the community these upcoming changes as early as 2011: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/GrDD-Transit ion.pdf. In early 2014 we published a more complete methodological paper:

Vose, R.S., Applequist, S., Durre, I., Menne, M.J., Williams, C.N., Fenimore, C., Gleason, K., Arndt, D. 2014: Improved Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series For U.S. Climate Divisions Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0248.1

Maine was one of the states that saw the biggest differences in temperature. This is probably why blogs focus in on it. In addition to the general reasons for changes that other states witnessed:

1) The new method used stations in neighboring Canada to inform estimates for data-sparse areas within Maine (a great improvement)

2) In the old dataset, the year 1913 was particularly problematic, resulting from a keying (transcription) error from many years ago that is now corrected. 1913 is often held up as evidence of “tampering” when in fact it is probably one of the biggest improvements in the dataset, and brings our value much more in line with what was observed at the time.

Thanks for contacting us. It is a privilege to serve you.

Deke"


Shorter: Because that's how science works.
126. yoboi
Quoting 122. MaineGuy:



I don't even understand how that chart is supposed to work. It claims that Maine's "average temperature" (whatever that is), between 1895 and 2015 is 45.5F. Yet that's impossible -- virtually none of the data points on that chart ever approach 45.5. It's clear as day to anyone looking at that chart. The "Lewiston-Auburn Local" line doesn't approach 45.5 until the early 1990s before then dropping off below 45.5 again. The other two lines are at all times well below it. So clearly either the average temp is wrong or the graph lines that NOAA allegedly altered are wrong, or the whole thing is wrong.

If somebody were trying to show that NOAA falsified data to demonstrate a warming Maine climate, wouldn't they do so in a way that made sense?


I would like to know the true story myself....If NOAA did such a thing shame on them....If NOAA did not do this shame on them for blaming NOAA...
This was also included....



Link
Quoting 126. yoboi:



I would like to know the true story myself....If NOAA did such a thing shame on them....If NOAA did not do this shame on them for blaming NOAA...
This was also included....



Link
And yet another graphic displaying the NOAA logo that was not created by NOAA. Reportable and bannable. Mods?
128. yoboi
Quoting 125. Neapolitan:

First off, the chart contains the NOAA logo, although the graphic is not an NOAA one at all. For that reason alone, the original post below should be reported, and the comment deleted.

Second, quoting from a denialist site is reportable, as well.

Third, while the insinuation here (which is, frankly, all the denialists have left at this point) is that NOAA has tried to 'secretly" tweak Maine's temperature data, the organization has been very responsive to those asking. Here, for example, is a direct answer to the question posed by yoboi:

In early 2014, we changed to a new version of the dataset upon which our US temperatures are drawn. The new dataset took advantage of a lot of older data that hadn’t been digitized (from paper) when the old dataset was constructed. It also took advantage of advancements in quality assurance that detect station moves, changes in observing practices, etc.

We began sharing with the community these upcoming changes as early as 2011: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/GrDD-Transit ion.pdf. In early 2014 we published a more complete methodological paper:

Vose, R.S., Applequist, S., Durre, I., Menne, M.J., Williams, C.N., Fenimore, C., Gleason, K., Arndt, D. 2014: Improved Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series For U.S. Climate Divisions Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0248.1

Maine was one of the states that saw the biggest differences in temperature. This is probably why blogs focus in on it. In addition to the general reasons for changes that other states witnessed:

1) The new method used stations in neighboring Canada to inform estimates for data-sparse areas within Maine (a great improvement)

2) In the old dataset, the year 1913 was particularly problematic, resulting from a keying (transcription) error from many years ago that is now corrected. 1913 is often held up as evidence of “tampering” when in fact it is probably one of the biggest improvements in the dataset, and brings our value much more in line with what was observed at the time.

Thanks for contacting us. It is a privilege to serve you.

Deke"


Shorter: Because that's how science works.


Thanks for finding the answer....
Quoting 113. islander101010:

there were plenty of floods and disasters before we started polluting this world geez


There were plenty of storms too. And volcanic eruptions. Earthquakes. High sea levels. Low sea levels. Changes in atmospheric composition. Even asteroid impacts.

But you know what's different between then an now? There weren't 7 billion people on the planet. We weren't feeding the entire population off a percent or two of land surface area. We didn't have major cities and infrastructure built along the coasts or that depend on the climate to remain intact.

We've built everything around the assumption of a relatively stable climate. We're changing it at a rate not seen outside of major global events. In the past, slight changes in regional climate we're enough to either allow a civilization to thrive or wipe it off the map. Global climate changes often result in extinction events. Only extreme arrogance and ignorance would allow one to think that such changes happening on a global scale wouldn't have significant impacts today.
130. yoboi
Quoting 127. Neapolitan:

And yet another graphic displaying the NOAA logo that was not created by NOAA. Reportable and bannable. Mods?


I am not the one putting the NOAA logo on there I provided the link...Take it up with them....
Quoting 116. islander101010:

home depot just came out and said their sales have been hit hard by this past harsh winter. stock market could be in for a bear run as the world markets are feeble.


I guess this is opposite day? Their latest quarterly earnings seem to directly contradict your statement.
Have an umbrella ready this Winter in FL and a weather radio to alert you of severe weather as the pattern is shaping up for a dangerous set up across the State.

Thanks for that response, Neapolitan. That's fascinating.

One reason I never like to see denialist comments reported or anything is because conspiracy theories are amazing. I have no doubt whatsoever that if somebody at NOAA had discovered a transcription error that pushed 1913 temps *higher* instead of lower than previously reported -- in other words if the exact same story existed except the numbers went the other way -- then the denialists would treat it as irrefutable proof that AGW isn't happening.
On the issue of the Gulf Stream discussion overnight and into early this morning, this March 2015 NOAA chart clearly shows the "cold pool", where the Gulf Stream, normally crosses off of Greenland on the way to Northern Europe.  Lots of research being done on this issue and whether Greenland ice sheet melt is contributing to this pool which could ultimately disrupt or slow the overall movement and circulation.  Would remiss if we also did not note all of the red............................................... ..

Quoting 107. LargoFl:

Many thanks for finding this


Way to go Xandra way to do you're Due Diligence
Quoting 132. StormTrackerScott:

Have an umbrella ready this Winter in FL and a weather radio to alert you of severe weather as the pattern is shaping up for a dangerous set up across the State.




Scott awesome job. Remember Kenny Loggins once sang " Highway to the Danger Zone, wanna take a ride to the Danger Zone"
Quoting 117. yoboi:



Why would temps be adjusted in the early 1900's???


Do you also click through on those fake Ebay spam emails?

The graph isn't from NOAA. You provide no context with the graph. You cite no sources. No papers. No evidence at all.

Now, in contrast to this garbage, the NOAA site has a number of references to weather records and why and how they are adjust. This includes descriptions of the methods used, how they are applied, and *gasp* error analyses to establish estimates and ranges where records are less certain.

There's no secret or mystery here. It's all on NOAA's website. All you have to do is browse and read.
Going to be a long boring Hurricane Season as the southern jet is racing across the Caribbean. Going to be hard to much of anything going.

Quoting 126. yoboi:


I would like to know the true story myself....If NOAA did such a thing shame on them....If NOAA did not do this shame on them for blaming NOAA...
Maybe this from Judith Curry, not known as an AGW alarmist, will help explain temperature adjustments. As long as you spend all your trolling the net for breathless Wordpress blogs, you're never going to learn anything.
Quoting 133. MaineGuy:

Thanks for that response, Neapolitan. That's fascinating.

One reason I never like to see denialist comments reported or anything is because conspiracy theories are amazing. I have no doubt whatsoever that if somebody at NOAA had discovered a transcription error that pushed 1913 temps *higher* instead of lower than previously reported -- in other words if the exact same story existed except the numbers went the other way -- then the denialists would treat it as irrefutable proof that AGW isn't happening.
I understand what you're saying, and you're right. However, it's been a longstanding rule here that forging graphics and forecasts--say, putting the NHC logo on a homemade hurricane chart, or placing the NWS logo on a self-created forecast--is strictly taboo. Certainly let the denialist comments stand; that way everyone can see them for the fools they are. But, again, forging graphics is a non-no, plain and simple...
Quoting 136. WeatherConvoy:



Scott awesome job. Remember Kenny Loggins once sang " Highway to the Danger Zone, wanna take a ride to the Danger Zone"


Anyone living in FL really needs to pay attention to how strong this El-Nino could get because if we do max out @ 2.4C which seems very likely now that would mean severe weather across FL the likes we haven't seen in a very long time. These type of strong El-Nino events across FL seem to feature deadly nighttime tornadoes. Tornadoes during stronger El-Nino episodes across FL are typically very large and very intense kinda like what the Midwest gets in the Spring.
Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:



Anyone living in FL really needs to pay attention to how strong this El-Nino could get because if we do max out @ 2.4C which seems very likely now that would mean severe weather across FL the likes we haven't seen in a very long time. These type of strong El-Nino events across FL seem to feature deadly nighttime tornadoes. Tornadoes during stronger El-Nino episodes across FL are typically very large and very intense kinda like what the Midwest gets in the Spring.
scott when would all this start to begin in florida?
Quoting 130. yoboi:



I am not the one putting the NOAA logo on there I provided the link...Take it up with them....

So, you're in no way responsible for the accuracy of stuff you post? Interesting concept.
144. yoboi
Quoting 139. sar2401:

Maybe this from Judith Curry, not known as an AGW alarmist, will help explain temperature adjustments. As long as you spend all your trolling the net for breathless Wordpress blogs, you're never going to learn anything.


Thanks I will read what she thinks about the topic...She is one of the best..
Quoting 142. LargoFl:

scott when would all this start to begin in florida?


I suspect it starts late October from what I am seeing on both the Euro and CFS. October thru March is looking interesting across FL to say the least. Again what we don't get during hurricane season you best believe we will make up for it come later this Fall thru next Winter.
Quoting 134. weathermanwannabe:

On the issue of the Gulf Stream discussion overnight and into early this morning, this March 2015 NOAA chart clearly shows the "cold pool", where the Gulf Stream, normally crosses off of Greenland on the way to Northern Europe.  Lots of research being done on this issue and whether Greenland ice sheet melt is contributing to this pool which could ultimately disrupt or slow the overall movement and circulation.  Would remiss if we also did not note all of the red............................................... ..


yes if this slowdown or stoppage does indeed occur,a change in the weather will be coming and also IF the stoppage occurs..water levels ive read along the east coast will go up,I guess the gulfstream current is really important
Quoting 145. StormTrackerScott:



I suspect it starts late October from what I am seeing on both the Euro and CFS. October thru March is looking interesting across FL to say the least. Again what we don't get during hurricane season you best believe we will make up for it come later this Fall thru next Winter.
ok TY
Quoting 143. ACSeattle:


So, you're in no way responsible for the accuracy of stuff you post? Interesting concept.



Indeed, I'm going to post some fake NIST 9/11 graphs from truther sites now ;)
Quoting 127. Neapolitan:

And yet another graphic displaying the NOAA logo that was not created by NOAA. Reportable and bannable. Mods?

Agreed. Enough of this nonsense. Such posts are utterly unethical.
Quoting 122. MaineGuy:



I don't even understand how that chart is supposed to work. It claims that Maine's "average temperature" (whatever that is), between 1895 and 2015 is 45.5F. Yet that's impossible -- virtually none of the data points on that chart ever approach 45.5. It's clear as day to anyone looking at that chart. The "Lewiston-Auburn Local" line doesn't approach 45.5 until the early 1990s before then dropping off below 45.5 again. The other two lines are at all times well below it. So clearly either the average temp is wrong or the graph lines that NOAA allegedly altered are wrong, or the whole thing is wrong.

If somebody were trying to show that NOAA falsified data to demonstrate a warming Maine climate, wouldn't they do so in a way that made sense?
Because they are idiots.
Quoting 130. yoboi:



I am not the one putting the NOAA logo on there I provided the link...Take it up with them....


The "Glenn Beck" defense doesn't work on a science site. You're the one who posted the link. You knew it wasn't legitimately from NOAA. Therefore, you deliberately posted misleading and/or false information.
152. yoboi
Quoting 137. Xyrus2000:



Do you also click through on those fake Ebay spam emails?

The graph isn't from NOAA. You provide no context with the graph. You cite no sources. No papers. No evidence at all.

Now, in contrast to this garbage, the NOAA site has a number of references to weather records and why and how they are adjust. This includes descriptions of the methods used, how they are applied, and *gasp* error analyses to establish estimates and ranges where records are less certain.

There's no secret or mystery here. It's all on NOAA's website. All you have to do is browse and read.


Link
153. JRRP
GFS 300 hours out:

CMC 228 hours out.. WOW! Cane in EPAC.

Quoting 130. yoboi:



I am not the one putting the NOAA logo on there I provided the link...Take it up with them....

Can't agree with you here, yoboi.

If someone, say, doctored a sports video, slapped a label on it that it was from the NBA/NFL/MLB, and then others who knew it was fake promulgated the video...who is culpable? I'd say both parties.

You are the one posting stuff w/ NOAA's logo, and you've been informed it's not from NOAA. Most of us at that point would have redacted/edited our posts.
Quoting 144. yoboi:


Thanks I will read what she thinks about the topic...She is one of the best..
You're welcome. One thing I've found from long experience is that graphs that have a lot of writing all over them and end with things like "Black Swan Event?" usually contain a lot of fibs.
158. yoboi
Quoting 151. Xyrus2000:



The "Glenn Beck" defense doesn't work on a science site. You're the one who posted the link. You knew it wasn't legitimately from NOAA. Therefore, you deliberately posted misleading and/or false information.


Looks like an overlay on a NOAA graph to me....I guess when you can't attack the data attack the person.....
Quote:"Also called Washintonian Palms in So. Florida... I've heard sabal palm as well. I really don't like them, because they need trimming and when the branches fall they have spikes on them. The grow (in South Dade anyways) 40' high pretty regularly."

The Washingtonian Palms are not the same as the Sable Palm more commonly called the Cabbage Palm in Florida. They are native to the South West states of California and Arizonia, not to the South East. The branches of the Cabbage Palm do not have spikes on them as do the W Palms. And the Cabbage Palm is much more cold hardy.

The freezes of the mid 1980s killed almost all the Washingtonian Palms in rural North Central Florida.Including those that were almost 75 feet tall and had lived here for many years. Although some survived the cold in sheltered urban heat islands


Quoting 158. yoboi:



Looks like an overlay on a NOAA graph to me....I guess when you can't attack the data attack the person.....


The places you get your "data" are not valid sources of accurate scientific information. You can't use the "It's on the internet, it must be true!" defense.
161. yoboi
Quoting 156. LAbonbon:


Can't agree with you here, yoboi.

If someone, say, doctored a sports video, slapped a label on it that it was from the NBA/NFL/MLB, and then others who knew it was fake promulgated the video...who is culpable? I'd say both parties.

You are the one posting stuff w/ NOAA's logo, and you've been informed it's not from NOAA. Most of us at that point would have redacted/edited our posts.


It looks like an overlay on a NOAA graph....I see many people here drawing over weather maps here and are not attacked by doing that....I understand I am not popular around here but I provide an opposing view and back it up with scientific research...
Quoting 152. yoboi:


Link
So now you're posting a link to another denialist website with the same graphs that purport to be from NOAA when you've been told they're not? I'm trying not to take sides here but that seems like a pretty clear violation of some kind of rule.
Quoting 161. yoboi:



It looks like an overlay on a NOAA graph....I see many people here drawing over weather maps here and are not attacked by doing that....I understand I am not popular around here but I provide an opposing view and back it up with scientific research...


Notrickszone is a conspiracy climate website. It is not scientific, it is not research, and it certainly isn't scientific research.
164. yoboi
Quoting 160. Naga5000:



The places you get your "data" are not valid sources of accurate scientific information. You can't use the "It's on the internet, it must be true!" defense.


This is the guy who is challenging NOAA....Not me...

Fellow New Englander, engineering physicist and energy expert, Mike Brakey has sent a summary analysis of NOAA past temperature “adjustments” for Maine.

Link
165. JRRP
Quoting 160. Naga5000:



The places you get your "data" are not valid sources of accurate scientific information. You can't use the "It's on the internet, it must be true!" defense.

It amazes me when someone continues to use a website that has time after time provided them with false and/or misleading information. It's almost like some people want to be fooled.
Quoting 155. Torito:

CMC 228 hours out.. WOW! Cane in EPAC.




CMC overhype as usual

Quoting 154. Torito:

GFS 300 hours out:




Meh hmm maybe but too far out, possibly slightly hyping up also and GFS constantly pushes back on the timing on every run for the past 2 or 3 days now

EPac needs to catch up lol already 4 days in to season and nothing yet

Anyway I know Epac will very quickly catch up in due time

In the mean time sit back and enjoy
Quoting 164. yoboi:



This is the guy who is challenging NOAA....Not me...

Fellow New Englander, engineering physicist and energy expert, Mike Brakey has sent a summary analysis of NOAA past temperature “adjustments” for Maine.

Link


It's make believe, like everything else Notrickszone has put out that turned out to be pure make believe. Your problem is that you believe grifters over scientists, you are a conspiracy theorist and nothing more.
Quoting 138. StormTrackerScott:

Going to be a long boring Hurricane Season as the southern jet is racing across the Caribbean. Going to be hard to much of anything going.




Nah

Soon that jet will lift out just needs time
Sometimes, when we realize we are ruining the environment, all we have to do is stop. We can live on this Earth if we try.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/new s/article.html/content/news/articles/bn9/2015/5/18 /seagrass_levels_are_.html

171. JRRP
-NAO for hurricane season ?
Quoting 169. wunderkidcayman:



Nah

Soon that jet will lift out just needs time


There will be periods of ripe development yes but the general rule this hurricane season will be for unfavorable conditions both aloft and at the surface.
For those with a vested interest in reality, NOAA is very transparent making both their data and adjustment methodology available to anyone. These can be found here. This alone makes any claims of tampering, malicious adjustments, and purposeful "fudging" of data nothing but the ramblings of crazy people.
Quoting 166. Misanthroptimist:


It amazes me when someone continues to use a website that has time after time provided them with false and/or misleading information. It's almost like some people want to be fooled.
"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice (or more), shame on me."
Quoting 174. Naga5000:

For those with a vested interest in reality, NOAA is very transparent making both their data and adjustment methodology available to anyone. These can be found here. This alone makes any claims of tampering, malicious adjustments, and purposeful "fudging" of data nothing but the ramblings of crazy people.


Well plenty of crazy people here
Quoting 43. bwi:

Big story I'm following today is the extreme heat wave in the NWT Canada.

Inuvik Airport - Record values
Averages and Extremes for May 18:
Averages and Extremes Value Year
Average Maximum Temperature
Average Minimum Temperature
Frequency of Precipitation
Highest Temperature (2006-2013) 16.7°C 2009
Lowest Temperature (2006-2013) -6.7°C 2013

Current Temp 27C
Quoting 58. bwi:

Tuktoyaktuk Airport - Record values
Averages and Extremes for May 18:
Averages and Extremes Value Year
Average Maximum Temperature -0.5°C
Average Minimum Temperature -7.4°C
Frequency of Precipitation 16.0%
Highest Temperature (1971-2010) 9.5°C 1981
Lowest Temperature (1971-2010) -14.8°C 2004
Greatest Precipitation (1971-2010) 2.4mm 1992
Greatest Rainfall (1971-2010) 1.6mm 2010
Greatest Snowfall (1971-2010) 2.4cm 1992
Most Snow on the Ground (1971-2010) 56.0cm 1972


22°C
°C °F
Observed at:
Tuktoyaktuk Airport
Date:
7:00 PM MDT Monday 18 May 2015
Condition:
Not observed
Pressure:
101.7 kPa
Tendency:
falling
Temperature:
21.7°C

Dewpoint:
4.0°C
Humidity:
31%


On May 18, the high in Inuvik was 28.0 C / 82.4 F, and the high in Tuktoyaktuk was 22.3 C / 72.1 F. The forecasts are for cooler today in Inuvik and warmer today in Tuktoyaktuk. Both are in arctic Canada.
Sometimes I m getting a bit wary of all these long range forecasts of hurricane season. what is positive and what is negative. I will have to wait start of hurricane season to see what transpires.
As of yesterday 1.5C anomalies are now popping up across Nino 3.4. This area will be interesting to watch as a solid WWB is forecast to come thru this region this week.

Quoting 173. wunderkidcayman:



Yes says you and your very strong apocalyptic El Ni�o wet dreams lol


WOW some never mature I guess.
Quoting 173. wunderkidcayman:



Yes says you and your very strong apocalyptic El Ni�o wet dreams lol


are we suppose to guess at what the question mark is? :)

pat i will take c...lets see what vanna thinks?
Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:



Anyone living in FL really needs to pay attention to how strong this El-Nino could get because if we do max out @ 2.4C which seems very likely now that would mean severe weather across FL the likes we haven't seen in a very long time. These type of strong El-Nino events across FL seem to feature deadly nighttime tornadoes. Tornadoes during stronger El-Nino episodes across FL are typically very large and very intense kinda like what the Midwest gets in the Spring.


Ha, all it's done so far in NW Florida is give us Sunny dry weather for the last month without a drop of rain!
Quoting 166. Misanthroptimist:


It amazes me when someone continues to use a website that has time after time provided them with false and/or misleading information. It's almost like some people want to be fooled.
Either that or they are knowingly being an [redacted].

To say, "I guess when you can't attack the data attack the person." is beyond ridiculous. [Redacted] and his ilk repeatedly post information that they know to be false on this site and try to hide behind 'scientific inquiry' and play victim when someone calls them a fool. It's tiresome to see the same retread debunked trash from the same users. If they were honest about their "scientific" pursuits they'd stop posting the false stuff.

I fully support the call to ban these dullards for knowingly and repeatedly false posting and mis-branded information.
Quoting 166. Misanthroptimist:


It amazes me when someone continues to use a website that has time after time provided them with false and/or misleading information. It's almost like some people want to be fooled.

Nah. No innocence in climate revisionism. Guilty until proven not guilty which can only be established by a display of learning, which can be established within two posts at most.
185. vis0

Quoting 81. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** Study Finds Sun Belt Population Growth and Warming Climate Could Quadruple Exposure to Extreme Heat



Don't forget the ASIG

!!! Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

*** Efficiency record for black silicon solar cells jumps to 22.1%



* Population benefits of sexual selection explain the existence of males

How microbes acquire electricity in making methane

US West's power grid must be prepared for impacts of climate change

Reshaping mountains in the human mind to save species facing climate change

*** Climate change's future impact uncertain on U.S. Midwest water cycle

Climate change altering frequency, intensity of hurricanes Discuss!

Computing at the speed of light with ultracompact beamsplitter



Conservationists decry U.S. plan to retool endangered species rules

*** US's shadowy energy partnership with oil-rich Azerbaijan: Ten Members of the US Congress, along with 32 of their staff members, received secret payments from Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company to travel to Baku in 2013

Why EPA's alleged 'war on coal' may actually be a war on wasting energy

* When Birds Squawk, Other Species Seem to Listen

* Protecting Our Shared Arctic

Kitty Kickstarter: See the Microbes That Live Inside Your Cat's Poop

*** 'Disaster after disaster' hits Marshall Islands as climate change kicks in
CREDIT:: Nature & i
D&T:: 201505-15;17'56 EDT
TITLED:: Bird of prey(miniFalconLike)Hungering For Sparrow Fricassée (i leave ID-ing birds to sar2401 or other bird experts, sit  down luvly European ladies its not what you think it means.
SUBJECT:: Sparrows doing 2 types of chirps, "fight fight fight"! & "el minnow ...el mino ...el nino?"

NOTE1:: The reason i posted this was as to BBrains "shocking news" that * When Birds Squawk, Other Species Seem to Listen as in this case there where 2 dogs turning towards the "action" looking at me then up, 3 squirrels (2 nibbling on something and other stopped by) all on their hind legs facing the lamp post and myself .(i thought i recorded the other animals before i focused on the "action", but i must've not pressed the record button, so its my word only as not on this edited down from an 8 minutes VID to 43 sec clip (sorry Labonbon no partridge in a pear tree...there was a converse (sneaker) hanging on a condemned tree, but that's no treat)

NOTE2:: VID is grainy in being zoomed in as its from my customized camera that records ~12mm as if ~36mm LIVE (at the end you see the 36 mm view as none of my editing software accepts the RAW 16mm view, So imagine an almost 2 times more wider view than what you see at the end of the clip where you can see the skyline/sky. The original 16mm view is as if i where ~3 blocks away THEN zooming in. i prefer the wide view as i use this camera to capture skyline, sky and NYc activities aa a wide view allows one to capture surprises in a clearer shot instead of blurring the first ~1 min in turning to catch a shot and having to then focus as in a wider view more of whats around you is automatically in view (downside it appears as if far away...but its captured). Surprised chasers don't use this type of lens more often on a side cam, so no spin up goes unrecorded.

NOTE3:: i know i've promised clips of birds taking advantage of some majeekal device's ability to up well cooler air and only posted 2.5 VIDs showing bird going up very high while they hover. Its that i'm on 56k or lower connections and to show/view these birds i need to upload close to original quality which are at 56k speed 20-30 hr uploads and that i will not do, as to tying up my phone lines. You can see this up welling of air as on certain days i raise this portable version majeekal device's control a bit more than other days and the result is seen on tree leaves or anything within 30 to 45 feet** as i approach it and that is light weight and therefore can be blown around by a constant breeze. Observe how the small tree/bush's leaves are dancing as if air is being "sucked" upward as i approach the mini tree that has the sparrows chirping wildly for at least 20 minutes.

~ 8 mins of recording BUT BEFORE i began recording, sparrows chirping caught me attention 'bout ~ 5 mins before as i was ~1 block away and after i ended recording (batteries Low, wanted to save battery life in case UFO stopped by to stare & point at humans, like we stare & point at caged animals) sparrows chirping continued for at least 8 more mins...i think i heard a few chirps in the scale of F...bombs.

**just a refresher no longer explain::  a complex animal as Humans on this planet has a field of energy at 15 feet (self), 30 feet (soul) & 45 feet (spirit) clues are in how real ancient structures where built as Sphinx & base of Giza certain Labyrinths, stone  gawds etc)...intuition is centered around these energy fields and the feminine brain (be it  physically in a , male body or female body) uses it more often...i.e. Women's intuition"

http://youtu.be/J7XZ-sYIvVI(org720x480, @600x400)




back to WEATHER
Quoting 182. 69Viking:



Ha, all it's done so far in NW Florida is give us Sunny dry weather for the last month without a drop of rain!


We won't feel the full effects of this until Fall. Summer of 1997 was very hot here too and we had near normal to below normal precip during that time but once October hit the pattern flipped and started to turn wet then very wet come late November into December. That December I picked up 18" of rain with Kissimmee receiving over 25" during December. Very possible we could be seeing something similar to that this year.
Dolphin finally starting to wind down..

could 97W be are next super typhoon?
Quoting 189. Tazmanian:
could 97W be are next super typhoon?


Doubt it. Went through all the model runs this morning, everything is pretty clear over there. Only real concern out anywhere is GFS at long range in the EPAC.

GFS


CMC
191. vis0

Quoting 85. BaltimoreBrian:

ColoradoBob, q.v.


Wow its at the NW area of Scotland Who-da-thought ..oh wait Canada, Ireland is green   : - P..
Excellent article from The Guardian's Sustainable Business section:

Ma Jun: China has reached its environmental tipping point
By giving the public access to real-time data on polluters, China is empowering citizens to tackle unsustainable growth, says country’s most well-known environmentalist

People distributing face masks to pedestrians to raise awareness of air pollution in Shanghai. Photograph: CARLOS BARRIA/REUTERS

Tom Levitt Tuesday 19 May 2015 09:48 EDT

It was almost 20 years ago that Ma Jun sat and watched the rainbow-coloured River Fen, in Shanxi province. As he turned to the skies in this coal and industrial heartland of north China he could see dozens of chimneys bellowing out their fumes.

He had been sent to the province on an assignment while working as a researcher for a foreign journalist in the late 1990s. The story then was about family planning and its impact on local communities, but it was the devastating pollution he witnessed that filled up his notepad.

It was these notes that would later form the basis of his first book, China’s Water Crisis, which quickly came to signify the awakening of China’s environmental consciousness – compared to Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring in terms of its impact.
Full Article

Excerpt:

"In the last few years, officials have belatedly acknowledged the crisis with a series of reports. The findings confirmed Ma and other environmentalists’ worst fears. One-fifth of farmland is too polluted to grow crops, nearly 60% of groundwater is unfit for human use and air pollution is 20 times the recommended safe levels.

The human cost of this damage has been devastating: huge swaths of productive arable land taken out of food production over fears of rice contaminated with heavy metals, more than 450 so-called “cancer villages” where untreated or mistreated chemicals have polluted local communities, choking levels of air pollution causing underweight babies, rising levels of lung cancer and a decline in male fertility.

It is not unsurprising to discover that environmental issues are now the number one cause of public protests in China - overtaking land and labour issues."

I finally got down through the posts to that graph about temps in Maine. Considering that I have lived in Maine for all of my 35 years, it is of interest to me. Then I had to change my pants as I laughed until, well, you know the rest.

Al I can say is, anyone who reads that graph and takes it on face value as truth, they will also lose money to phone and internet scammers. They have every right to believe whatever they want to believe just as the rest of the community also has every right to enjoy the humor of the ludicrousness of the attempts made to push reality under the carpet.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 4m 4 minutes ago
2nd downwelling KW shows up in TAO array at depth bw 180-170w, prob helped by western Pacific typhoon parade. #ElNino


What Eric is referring too is this area @ 150m and 170 or so west.


Quoting 170. sonofagunn:

Sometimes, when we realize we are ruining the environment, all we have to do is stop. We can live on this Earth if we try.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/new s/article.html/content/news/articles/bn9/2015/5/18 /seagrass_levels_are_.html



Nice article, thanks for posting. There were a couple of recent posts about seagrass in Florida (maybe by weathermanwannabe and indianrivguy?), but I don't recall the specifics of the posts.
Quoting 192. LAbonbon:

Excellent article from The Guardian's Sustainable Business section:

Ma Jun: China has reached its environmental tipping point
By giving the public access to real-time data on polluters, China is empowering citizens to tackle unsustainable growth, says country’s most well-known environmentalist

People distributing face masks to pedestrians to raise awareness of air pollution in Shanghai. Photograph: CARLOS BARRIA/REUTERS

Tom Levitt Tuesday 19 May 2015 09:48 EDT

It was almost 20 years ago that Ma Jun sat and watched the rainbow-coloured River Fen, in Shanxi province. As he turned to the skies in this coal and industrial heartland of north China he could see dozens of chimneys bellowing out their fumes.

He had been sent to the province on an assignment while working as a researcher for a foreign journalist in the late 1990s. The story then was about family planning and its impact on local communities, but it was the devastating pollution he witnessed that filled up his notepad.

It was these notes that would later form the basis of his first book, China’s Water Crisis, which quickly came to signify the awakening of China’s environmental consciousness – compared to Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring in terms of its impact.
Full Article

Excerpt:

"In the last few years, officials have belatedly acknowledged the crisis with a series of reports. The findings confirmed Ma and other environmentalists’ worst fears. One-fifth of farmland is too polluted to grow crops, nearly 60% of groundwater is unfit for human use and air pollution is 20 times the recommended safe levels.

The human cost of this damage has been devastating: huge swaths of productive arable land taken out of food production over fears of rice contaminated with heavy metals, more than 450 so-called “cancer villages” where untreated or mistreated chemicals have polluted local communities, choking levels of air pollution causing underweight babies, rising levels of lung cancer and a decline in male fertility.

It is not unsurprising to discover that environmental issues are now the number one cause of public protests in China - overtaking land and labour issues."




Waterkeeper Alliance sent a law team to China to work with our Chinese Waterkeepers there to try and use this new law to clean up their waterways. Pete told there is a LOT of tradition involved in interpretation.

Quoting 183. SouthTampa:

I fully support the call to ban these dullards for knowingly and repeatedly false posting and mis-branded information.

This. A thousand times yes to this.
198. vis0

Quoting 119. AreadersinceWilma:



Not exactly as we may have different sources of information.

Source CNBC:

This is breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Home Depot delivered quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts' expectations on Tuesday.

The home improvement giant posted first-quarter earnings excluding items of $1.16 per share, up from 96 cents a share in the year-earlier period.

Revenue rose to $20.89 billion from $19.69 billion a year ago.

Wall Street had expected the company to deliver quarterly earnings per share of $1.15 on $20.81 billion in revenue, according to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters.

Same-store sales were up 6.1 percent, above the 5.7 percent increase expected.

The only problem i have with HomeDepot are the escalators (23rd st Manhattan , NYC) they are down (no pun intended) constantly AND to steal a manner of speaking from Seinfeld..."WHATS DA DEAL WITH ESCALATOR REPAIRS", they run eloquently when originally installed but after the first breakdown the repair people add this CLUNK CLUNK CLUNK sound (as a misaligned part is hitting the lip of the end of the escalator) and then it begins to breakdown every other week.   Same with Kmarts escalators on 34th st NYC, i take the stairs when i can but they're hidden and hard to find usually in the storage areas or lady's dressing room areas.


PS on cmmnt#113, (not on member) there has always been NATURAL DISASTERS, co2 in how its artificially building and affecting other "naturally stable"**  areas of weather is NOT natural, hence its news.

**(meaning these "stable" area as the gulfstream have extremes BUT within natural boundaries)
example:: Grand Canyon it took how long to "create" through natural means including thing "man" might deem disasters.
Imagine if man create a Grand Canyon in just 200 yrs you'd go WOWWTF. Plus in creating such a "hole" all sorts of pollutants would be blown around as things under the topsoil would be flying through the air causes discomfort, respiratory problem...huh? wah? man is already create mini grand canyons??? huh..digging for coal go figure... no need to imagine go see for yerself (wear a mask)

WEATHER:: as the escalators up n down...except for the Global aspect of warm that's up up and around (not -going- away)
If the El Nino persists into the winter months and the AMO remains negative or a a cooling phase. We can get big Snows in the Northeast this winter
Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:



We won't feel the full effects of this until Fall. Summer of 1997 was very hot here too and we had near normal to below normal precip during that time but once October hit the pattern flipped and started to turn wet then very wet come late November into December. That December I picked up 18" of rain with Kissimmee receiving over 25" during December. Very possible we could be seeing something similar to that this year.


I just hope it cools down for the Winter rains, I hate it when it's warm during hunting season.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
202. vis0

Quoting 138. StormTrackerScott:

Going to be a long boring Hurricane Season as the southern jet is racing across the Caribbean. Going to be hard to much of anything going.


"im saaah-rrrpriized at you S-T-S" (in my elementary teacher catching one stealing a cookie, voice)**

Even you have stated it only takes 1 severe TS (as Hurricane Andrew or TropHurSubXtra Storm Sandy) to  add excitement -grief- and many years of studying to a generation. Plus remember my statement a month ago and last Dec & 2 yrs ago and...(ok enough  "told-yaing") that as natural wxtrends exceed 2 times the norm as it appears El Nino will have an opportunity to do later this year(s) (like a Juvenal delinquent given a box of spray cans, warm moisture not paint in these cans) plus some majeekal device counteracting the natural 2 times the norm energy flow. 
 THEN when pockets of quiet areas build, be they just for 2-4 days it gives any pTwF area (+ Tropical Weather Formation) an opportunity to baah-LOW up, so keep (please sit down keeper ) an eye towards GoMx even if the Jet is streaking and keep an eye towards the eastern coast for quick spin ups off fronts and keep an eyes where TAz sez and still watch for TS off Africa during what i call ""2wkAnomly" periods...there are 3 to 4 of those during each nATL TS season.
Quoting 169. wunderkidcayman:



Nah

Soon that jet will lift out just needs time
El nino = high shear
Quoting 161. yoboi:



It looks like an overlay on a NOAA graph....I see many people here drawing over weather maps here and are not attacked by doing that....I understand I am not popular around here but I provide an opposing view and back it up with scientific research...


Yoboi...you are not popular here because you insist upon posting and believing false data. In fact, I am not sure how you can even make the claim that you back things up with scientific data! Your support always comes from sources that lack any true scientific credibility! And you consistently confuse, whether accidentally or intentionally, the concepts of weather (temporary) and climate (long established patterns). And your opposing view is steeped in mythology and fallacies, yet you still stubbornly cling to it, no matter how many times people who find true scientific data tell you you're wrong. In addition, when people, such as myself, ask you to explain why you believe that global warming is a conspiracy, you tell them things like "I'll get back to you later". I have never once seen you demonstrate an ability to think critically for yourself and defend your view with LEGITIMATE evidence!

A hint for future research. You can never take a source at face value. You have to consider the author, the publisher, the overall purpose, and then read between the lines. And furthermore, while Google and Wikipedia have their places, I can guarantee you that scientists and other research-oriented professionals are not dependent upon them for information. You might want to try a more academically-oriented search engines. There is a reason why many secondary schools, universities, and colleges direct their students to avoid Wikipedia when completing research projects.

In addition, I respectfully submit this for your consideration...who are the people, entities, corporations who deny global warming, and why might they deny it? And why would legitimate scientists, not the ones who publish in Forbes, but those who publish in respected scientific journals, place their integrity and reputations on the line? The way I see it, there is one very specific group that stands to lose by accepting global warming as a reality! And you play right into their hands!
205. vis0

Quoting 176. wunderkidcayman:



Well plenty of crazy people here
Yeah Wadda want!?
Quoting 203. Gearsts:

El nino = high shear


Between the shear and the SAL we might not see that many storms. But as usualy, it just takes one.