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Dreaming of a brown Christmas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:04 AM GMT on December 28, 2006

It's the year of the brown Christmas. The lack of snow across the entire Northern Hemisphere has been remarkable both in its areal coverage and depth, thanks to December temperatures 5-20 degrees F above normal. In the U.S., most of the eastern 2/3 of the country was snow free on Christmas (Figure 1). Granted, Colorado had a white Christmas and the mountains of Washington got slammed with snow this year, but places like northern Maine and Michigan's Upper Peninsula--which normally (Figure 2) have over two feet of snow on the ground this time of year--were snow-free. Munising, Michigan had it's first brown Christmas since 1911, and Minneapolis, Minnesota--which normally receives over 18 inches of snow by this time of year--has had a paltry one inch of snow so far this winter.


Figure 1. The U.S. white Christmas map. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. The departure from normal of snow depth on Christmas day 2006. Note the large areas of orange across northern New England and northern Michigan where snow depths are over 2 feet below normal.

Hitler and Napoleon missed their chance
The warmth and lack of snow are also affecting all of Europe. The famed Russian winter that stopped the armies of Hitler and Napoleon has failed to show up this year. Virtually all of Europe has seen the warmest and least snowy December on record, to go with their warmest fall on record. Temperatures in Moscow this December have hit 47 F, a full 87 degrees above the lowest readings recorded last winter. The brown bears at the Moscow zoo have refused to hibernate for the first time ever, thanks to the record warmth.

Normally, an unusually warm winter in one part of the Northern Hemisphere means that another region is receiving an unusually cold winter. A persistent kink in the jet stream pattern typically sets up in these cases, pumping cold air from the pole down to one region, and warm subtropical air northwards into an adjacent region. However, that is not the case this year. Land areas in huge areas of the Northern Hemisphere, including most of Asia (Figure 4), have temperatures well above normal. This is something I've never seen before--there's almost no cold Arctic air to be found. Note, however, that the unusual warmth does not extend to the Southern Hemisphere; December has been colder than normal across much of Africa, South America, and Australia. Melbourne, Australia had its coldest Christmas Day on record with the temperature peaking at 14.5C. The previous lowest recorded temperature was 15.9C, in 1935.


Figure 3. Northern Hemisphere snow cover on Christmas Day 2006. Note the complete lack of snow over Europe, except in northern Scandinavia. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 4. Northern Hemisphere departure of temperature from normal (in Centigrade) for Dec 1 - Dec 25 2006. Note that almost all the land areas of North America, Europe, and Asia were well above normal.

Will it stay warm?
When my nephew Cody eagerly unwrapped his new snow board this Christmas and asked me when he might get a chance to use it, I told him, "What are you thinking? This is Michigan in the 21st century! There's not going to be any more snow." I exaggerate slightly, but I don't recommend that anyone invest in the winter sports equipment industry this year. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows no end in sight for the warm conditions in North America. I'm guessing that our next outbreak of cold Arctic air in the U.S. won't come until mid-January. According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University (IRI), January through March should be warmer than average across virtually the entire globe.

The unusual warmth this winter probably has four main causes. Firstly, this is an El Nino year, and it is common for portions of the Northern Hemisphere to experience warmer than average conditions during these events. Add to this the warming due to the observed global warming trend of 1 degree F over the past century, and the usual natural variability due to such phenomena as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Now, let's talk about sea ice in the Arctic. The Arctic Ice Cap has shrunk by about 20% since 1979, and at the end of November this year, the amount of sea ice in the Arctic was about 2 million square kilometers less than had even been seen in any previous November. December has also seen the lowest sea ice coverage for any December on record. All this exposed water provides a huge source of heat and moisture in the Arctic that retards the formation of the usual cold air masses over the adjacent regions of Canada and Siberia. It's impossible to know how much of an effect this has without doing some detailed model studies, but I think the record low sea ice in the Arctic is probably a significant contributor to this winter's record warmth. The Arctic Ice Cap is expected to continue to decline, due to human-caused global warming, according to the 2004 study by 300 scientists, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). Many of us who are used to the reality of a white Christmas will find it only a dream in the coming years. I expect that the unnaturally warm winters we've experienced the past two years in the U.S. will become the norm ten years from now--and may already be the new norm.


Figure 5. Northern Hemisphere sea ice area departure from normal for Novembers from 1979 to 2006. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ISS passing over New Orleans last week.Video taken with spiffy new Binocular Camera from Last Xmas.
Maybe for some, its a brown Christmas but for this area, its been a definite green Christmas. I even noticed today at the side of the house that I have some of my spring blooms peaking out, very unusual but with all the rain and over freezing temps its not all that surprising. We need snow to keep our water table up and without it this year so far, it looks like it could end up being a very dry summer and our river in town will probably be at its lowest point come July and August. Certainly not good for the farmers who cash crop in this area. Lets hope that we do get a bit of snow before too long.
CB - will you need your tunnels for this? LOL!!!!!
Ain't it the Grinchy truth.

Not too long ago I linked to an article about the lack of snow even in Scandinavia, and how a European ski competition had to be moved from the Alps to the mountains there, because it was the only place with snow!
A REAL design of the New 17th St. Canal Floodgates 3-d fly-around
Heres a pic from Aquak9s visit showing the Lake side of the eNtrance to the Floodgate6
Tell your idea CB. I want snow.
Uhhhhhhh...OK..........
Quick clip shot whileunder watchful eyes of National guard Aug 29th 06..on anniversary of Katrina..the breach is the Pilings ..
I suggest you contact them at their E-mail addys.I dont think they can see ya here CB..LOL!
Dreaming of a brown Christmas

It was more of a Green Christmas here; pretty soon, trees won't even drop their leaves in the fall...
Video of October 10th Storm with Cold Front..
Here is something that is both interesting and horrendous:



Take note of the middle graph. The temperatures where I live are not quite as insane, but it is repeating last winter (and the winter before that and so on...). Winter doesn't exist anymore - the seasons are now early spring, spring, summer, fall and late fall.... LOL!
Hey Cyclone - Does your idea also prevent world hunger? lmao
all the fish we eat from disappearing in 2040!!

I guess that you are just screwed if you are allegic to fish huh. lmao
MADDOX SYNOPTIC FLASH FLOOD POSSIBLE HERE NEXT Link48hrs...
LOL....

I agree that there is a problem, but your tunnels are not a workable concept, especially beyond cooling SSTs (and even then, it is a really foolish thing to do). At least if it gets warm enough during the winter, demand for heating will fall and ice storms will become nonexistant.
Lets hope that the energy tracts north of the central gulf region. The influx of Gulf moisture can be somewhat disapated the further north from the energy center.
I think that this is already happening (notice that it was written last September, before yet another record-breaking low ice year and year of wild weather)...
Has it crossed anyone's mind that global warming might actually be good for humanity?
Yes, some of our cities get flooded.
Tropical diseases move further north.
Deserts expand, and rainforests fall.
And more extreme weather damages crops and homes.

BUT

The increased sea level and lack of ice opens a nortwest passage, easing trade between Pacific and Atlantic ports. Tankers can now get to north Alaskan ports, removing the need for the Alaska pipeline; a potential source of environmental disaster, a terror target, and a bottleneck in our petroleum supply.
The rising sea level creates vast estuaries at the mouths of rivers, which filter pollution from the water and provide habitat for many animals and spawning grounds for fish.
Winter diseases, such as influenza, decrease, saving the lives of millions of the young and elderly. Richer nations pour more money into tropical disease research, since it now could affect them, leading to cures.
The rainforests spread further north and south.
Vast areas of Canada and Siberia, which used to have too short of a growing season, now can produce crops. Some areas that once had enough growing season for one crop can produce two.
Moving out after the seasons over...Patraps moving on.
Posted By: Patrap at 10:09 PM EST
MADDOX SYNOPTIC FLASH FLOOD POSSIBLE HERE NEXT 48hrs..


I don't know what that is, but it sounds bad.
Link; OK now I know... Good Luck!
Dreaming of a brown Christmas...really Doctor.
A wet coffee dream here or what?
It was 40F here this AM - Still way too cold.
Didn't get near 40 down your way did it Rand?
Brown Christmas? You should See the Florda Snow, {Ranny Christmas}
I was 48 on Wednesday...Thursday's high will be around 80 again.


Doctor Masters:
My question is.....besides so-called global warming explanations. How else could this be explained?


. A persistent kink in the jet stream pattern typically sets up in these cases, pumping cold air from the pole down to one region, and warm subtropical air northwards into an adjacent region. However, that is not the case this year. Land areas in huge areas of the Northern Hemisphere, including most of Asia (Figure 4), have temperatures well above normal. This is something I've never seen before--there's almost no cold Arctic air to be found

Fish starving?
Here's the article



Fish 'starving to death'
By Vincent Morello
December 27, 2006

FISH species on the Great Barrier Reef are starving to death because climate change is killing off their food source, an environmental study has found.
Rising sea temperatures have bleached more than 30 per cent of the world's coral reefs, a five-year study by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CoECRS) has found.

As a result, smaller fish which would normally feed on live coral are dying off, which could throw the fish food chain out of balance, and consequently hinder local fishing and tourism operations.

The coral damage is predicted to double by 2030 if sea temperatures continue their warming patterns, CoECRS senior researcher Morgan Pratchett said.

The starving fish fail to breed and fail to migrate to thriving reefs.

"Fish can be very territorial and it may be hard for refugee fish, which have lost their reef, to relocate elsewhere because the locals will try to keep them out," Dr Pratchett said.

United States Secretary of Defense William Cohen said, back in April of
1997, that there were terrorists who "... are engaging even in an eco-type
of terrorism whereby they can alter the climate, set off earthquakes,
volcanoes remotely through the use of electromagnetic waves..."


Hello?
This is supposed to be an El Nino year. That means in Florida where I reside that we should be seeing wet and strong fronts moving through. We still have this really huge and strong Bermuda high hanging out off the East coast of Florida right now.
This next bad boy cruising will stall over me for days.
My County is still in a drought situation.
Excuse me if I'm not all invested in the El Nino thing this year.
The end of December....in a supposedly wet year...and still a lack of moisture?

Yeah, Randrewl, I agree.

El Nino is supposed to make our weather average... In short, it should have LESS variation from normal than the average year. If anything, it should be a bit dry.

In fact, we have had quite a lot of rain in the past two months, and the temperatures have been way above normal. So much so that one of my daffodils is sending up a vigorous bud, as are a couple of my crocuses! Even one of last season's petunias is still alive, although frostbitten. I live in Ohio! It shouldn't be warm here.

The Pacific warming is there, and the Atlantic hurricaine season was a flop. But otherwise, this isn't looking anything like a typical El Nino year.
Posted By: Randrewl at 6:48 AM GMT on December 28, 2006.

United States Secretary of Defense William Cohen said, back in April of
1997, that there were terrorists who "... are engaging even in an eco-type
of terrorism whereby they can alter the climate, set off earthquakes,
volcanoes remotely through the use of electromagnetic waves..."


Hello?


Oh no! They're on to me!
Morning..........What a dismal prognosis. But I am not suprised at at all. What happens next ? Does anybody have the testicular fortitude to demand that our so - called leaders get together to attempt to reduce global climate change.? We reap what we sow............
Happy belated birthday, Drewl.......
Caffienhog, your remarks that claim that global warming may have some benefits are noted. Its interesting that your very first point is one that will result in enormous trade benefits for mega-business. They know that, and are actively lobbying the powers that be to continue the warming process for reasons of profit such as this.
Its a conspiracy blog? LOL
All weather..like funerals and politics..is LOCAL.
Busy at the Port Truck Terminal..Live feed. Link
Greetings Patrap. Is it a conspiracy blog ? I dont know. But surely the rapid climate change we are witnessing has several causes, and there may be some causes that we cant understand. Probably never will. But there is no doubt that we are helping the cause by creating conditions that result in climate change. My point was that there are more benefits derived by Industry in keeping things the way they are, rather than try to reduce emissions, for example.
Oil & Old men..its a gig not likely to go away soon.I live near 30 refineries..and see the damage to our wetlands here.Its always going to be profits before people.Always.
Read Paragraph 3 here..they been killing us long before Katrina ever didLink
My father survived the Depression..a Marine in WW-2..raising me and my siblings.But he couldnt beat that Mesothelioma from asbestos working in those refineries,But we soon to settle with them my brother sister and I.We got them by the balls.He passed in 03.Lawyers soon to settle.Then..we outta here.
Patrap - I know the lawyers won't make the suffering go away, but hopefully it will make those responsible suffer a bit - look at the amazing profit margins they have experienced at the expense of others health and livelihoods. Rand - we are still in a "semi-drought" situation here. It was MUCH wetter the last two winters than it has been this year. What does come through here, comes to heavy and fast to be of benefit, especially when it drags tornadoes along with it.
Dad was tough but..well .he couldnt move no air.He was sitting up and conscience to the end.He died March 21,03.Morning after the Iraq war began.Fitting end for a marine.I wispered to him that they got Saddam and his sons in the airstrike.Didnt matter that they missed to him.I even Had a MARSGRAM sent out to all NAVAL vessels.Got 140 responses back.Was worst day of my life.So when we settle.Im thinking about exiting this Nightmare and heading North,,east ..or way west.
..but then the ties here are well..cemented deep.Plus Dau has 2 more years in High school.
Even Nova at the end of this Video seems to be saying..Lets Get outta dis place.This is about 1 hour ago here.
So the smaller icecap could create another warming feedback mechanism - like the melting of the permafrost, which makes peat release carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. Dr Masters, I've been looking for a link to the central England temperature series graph (goes back to about the time the Pilgrims arrived your side of the pond), which I believe goes like a lacross stick as you get into the 90s, taking off northwards after the decades of slower steady growth, but I can't find it. Can you?
Why not go to the root of CO2 emmissions? Fossil fuels are only 15% of the CO2 problem, why look at the smallest part of the CO2 emmissions problem? Why not look at the glaring big producer of CO2 emmissions? The population of this planet. I bet if you put up a graph of the Earths population and CO2 emmissions over the past 50 years you would see the same increase. But that would be common sense, I mean the more people the more carbon foot print. Reducing a small portion of the populations carbon foot print cannot reverse the trend that more people equals more carbon.
Snow conditions are worse than that map shows.

I forgot to mention yesterday that the snow model graphic -- the first one in the blog entry -- that shows 2-4" over the Twin Cities is wrong; no snow here. At my friend's home in Bloomington (a southern suburb) there was a little bit of slushy ice in the back yard, but not what you'd call coverage or even one inch. Elsewhere, not a thing, except brown grass and trees with no leaves.

From our local news KARE 11:

The wimpy winter may be one for the record books

Written By: Julie Ronning On-line producer

When its winter in Minnesota is outdoor ice skating really too much to ask?

It is this year in Edina, where for the first time in three decades, Christmas vacation has come and none of the cities outdoor rinks are open for skating.

We feel bad for the kids, said Edina Park Maintenance Supervisor Bob Prestrud. They got new skates under the tree and this is what they have to look forward too."

At ice rinks across the Twin Cities, puddles tell this winters story.

Were having a Missouri type winter, said U of M climatologist Mark Seeley. Seeley says the average daily temperature this December has been nine degrees above normal, but then even normal has been changing. The last decade, if you look at the degree of warmth weve had, you cant find it in the historical record, said Seeley.

What you can find at Hamline Hardware in St. Paul are shelves full of pipe heating tape, ice scrapers and window insulation. Hamline Hardware has sold one snow blower all season. And since owners havent been blowing snow with their old machines, Hamline Hardwares Jason Sammon said, I dont have repairs.

Thats life in Missouri. Its just not supposed to be here.


And if Missouri winters have been transplanted to Minnesota, MichaelSTL can tell us what kind of a winter has been transplanted to Missouri.

The most recent local snow depth map from the U of M correctly shows zero inches of snow across all but the very northern tier of the state.

And from WCCO 4, Paul Douglas' blog for yesterday notes:

Welcome to what is already the 16th warmest December since 1891; the mildest December in five years. And long range computers are amazingly persistent, keeping our jet stream winds howling from the west, from the Pacific, a relatively dry, mild, moderate pattern for Minnesota. No exaggeration: the weather map really does look like something out of late March, not late December. There is precious little snow on the ground east of the Rockies (a little around the Great Lakes, but even the normally reliable snow belts downwind of the big lakes are sporting far less snow than usual for this time of year).

What's going on? My hunch: our easy winter is primarily a symptom of El Nino, with a dash of climate change and background warming thrown in, which may be amplifying the effects of El Nino. Can I prove it? No. Proving cause and effect with the atmosphere is wishful thinking, but there are some clues out there which lead me to my conclusion. One thing is fairly certain: if in fact global warming has gone from theory to reality, as most scientists believe, than we can expect to see more "winters" like the one we're enjoying/enduring right now. Love it or hate it, this may be a sign of things to come.

Rain In Late December

Here's another sign of the times: the next storm moving in will be mostly rain, with a little ice or snow thrown in for good measure, but not enough snow to really get snowmobilers and other snow lovers excited. A surge of southern moisture and warmth will spark a little drizzle, maybe some freezing drizzle (ice) tonight and Thursday, but by the time the main precipitation event arrives Friday and Saturday, a layer of relatively mild air aloft should insure plain old rain. It's still possible that we may see some wet, slushy snow at the end of this alleged "storm" late Saturday into Sunday, and I can't rule out some slush -- mainly on lawns and fields -- for New Year's Eve.

Margie, if the zonal jet stream pattern continues through the hurricane season,could the U.S. expect more hurricanes next year?
Instead of 5 inches of rain over the Holiday (yes we are WET) why not the snow of 89 (12" to 16")? Do we ever forsee the cycle reversing back to cold winters? All we need is a raincoat or a light jacket.
Fire, the long range 00z GFS had a pretty good 500mb trough over the eastern U.S. in 16 days,but until then not much.

16 Day 00z GFS
Maybe that weak vorticity max near Minnesota could swing down and form in to a snowstorm before the cold air disappears.
What do you think?
The wind barbs would seem to indicate that happening.Just my opinion.


The Last storm of 06?
86. rlk
What's really interesting about the 25-day anomaly map is that the vast majority of the oceans appear to have below normal air temperatures (including the high Arctic north of Canada, which shows a big negative departure). A lot of the low latitude land surface also shows significant negative departures. However, the mid and high latitude land areas all show substantial positive departures from normal.

Any idea why the sea appears to be overwhelmingly below normal? Is that just how the wave pattern is setting up, or is it more likely to be a measurement problem of some kind?
"The Arctic Ice Cap is expected to continue to decline, due to human-caused global warming, according to the 2004 study by 300 scientists, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)".
Its too bad that these scientists cannot figure where our main source of weather comes from... the SUN. According to other scientists watching the Suns weather, there should be a 11 year low in activity(sunspots) and we just recently had a big spot in the beginning of December which gave us Northern Lights around mid month. There is probably a little more going on with the Sun than we give credit for. I am not picking on nor discrediting these scientists, but common sense states look at the Sun for the source of our weather woes...
rlk,given that 2m temps over the Pacific are shown as negative even though the El Nino should be warming the air just 6 feet above it, I would say it is most likely that there is some sort of problem with the measurements.
bigdaddyo

Our suns output has increased, and our solar minimums have gotten stronger when compared to previuos solar minimums. In fact the past 5 decades we have witnessed increased solar activity each solar minimum. The very sunspot that you were speaking about (930) showed excessive energy for a sunspot during the solar minumum, nevermind the fact that during solar minimum they should be small or none. It produced no fewer than 5 CME's in the 9 day progression across the sun, and it is still active and may face the Earth again early next week. One of those CME was an X-9 flare which is one of the largest flares you can have. This activity is typical for a solar maximum during normal activity years. Also the past three decades have had dual peaked maximums. A solar maximum typically peaks and then declines, but the past three have increased a year or two later after the initial decline.
Patrap, I read your last couple of posts with some sadness. Noboddy should feel they have to move to survive. But the itch to move has usualy resulted in adventure that is beneficial. 2 years is a short time to plan for, so I"m sure you are planning! But dont forget to look SOUTH as well, as there are opportunities in these Islands for people who have an outlook on life that is considered by many to be outrageous. I assure you that outrageous is totally rewarding in many ways, and will promote in your children and you a view of things from a perspective that cant be achieved from where you are. Look South too .
93. ao
Heh, 'Brown Christmas' indeed, especially here in South-East Asia, with the flood-waters and all.

Can anyone tell me how long this El Nino might probably last?

=)

SST anomalies:

When we receive snow the cold air rotates in from the southwest(alabama, georgia, sc) into southeastern nc.
Sorry kris. had to work for a coupla of hours. thanks for the earlier reply.
The El Nino is likely at it's peak,with a La Nina possible by August.
El Nino Forecast Models
When we receive snow the cold air rotates in from the southwest(alabama, georgia, sc) into southeastern nc.Is that because the downslope of the mountains warms the air too much that's coming from the northwest?
Weatherboykris, correct me if I'm wrong. El Nino is the result of an upwelling of warm water from the deep Pacific ? If so, where does that warm water originate and why ??? Thanks.
El Nino is the result of weaker trade winds, which causes the very warm (often reaching 90+ degrees) water in the West Pacific to move east and warm the normally cool East Pacific.
Michael,you beat me to it.LOL.I was going to try to sound smart.
Here are the current SSTs:



The difference between neutral years and El Nino years:



Ah, thanks STL.
Pottery, upwelling normally results in cooler ocean temps.Once the trade winds pick up later this spring, it will push the warm waters back towards the Weat Pacific and cause an upwelling that will lead to neutral or La Nina conditions.Kind of like how fast upper level winds in the atmosphere cause rising air at the surface.
Michael, you beat me to it gain.
Does a weaker than normal Bermuda High lead to the weakening of trade winds over the Pacific?
Thanks Kris. I was confused because I knew that deep waters are cold, And I was under the wrong impression that Nino was the result of an upwelling. Thanks again.
What Michael's maps didn't really show is that the area of warm water is kind of like a 'dome' (not a very high dome,I think maybe a few inches),and that's why it is more influenced by the winds.
From the Jackson,MS NWS office:

What causes El Nino?

In normal, non-El Nino conditions, the trade winds blow towards the west across the tropical Pacific. Warmer water near the surface of the ocean, heated by the sun, is blown to the west by the trade winds. Warmer water "piles up" in the west Pacific (the sea surface is about one and one half feet higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador) as cooler water rises from deep in the ocean in the east Pacific to replace the water that was moved away by the winds. The sea surface temperature is about 8 degrees C higher in the west, with cooler temperatures in the east Pacific due to upwelling of colder water from deep in the ocean. Rainfall develops much more frequently in rising air over warm water so normal rainfall amounts are higher over the west Pacific and the east Pacific area is relatively dry.

During El Nino, the trade winds relax in the Pacific. This leads to warmer water temperatures in the eastern and, especially, central Pacific because upwelling is reduced. As the pool of warmer water moves eastward, the areas of best rainfall development also move to the east, with associated flooding in Peru and drought in Indonesia and Australia. The eastward displacement of this heat source (the warmest water) results in large changes in the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn forces changes in weather in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific.

El Nino episodes typically occur every 3 to 5 years. However, this interval has varied from 2 to 7 years. They typically last 9 to 18 months. El Nino episodes tend to develop from March to June and reach peak intensity during the December to April period, weakening from May to July. Prolonged El Nino episodes have lasted 2 years and even as long as 3 to 4 years. Every El Nino is somewhat different in magnitude and in duration.

kris,
when we get cold air from the west or northwest the air is dry or the warmer air from the ocean cause transition to rain within 12 miles of the coast.
OK, you have a link to Pacific ocean currents ?
Okay Fire,thanks
What do you mean Pottery?
Like this Link ?
Pacific ocean currents, a link to show the predominant flows across the area we are talking about, ie central equatorial Pac. How does the ocean move, east to west ??
sorry,that's all I've got.I'm not really interested in climate events like El Nino.
This is selfish but...Let it warm up..I can't stand cold weather...If I never felt a temperature below 70 again in my life I would be very happy.
Kris, Thanks for the link. I'm not too concerned on the specifics either, just trying to pick peoples brains for all the bits and pieces of info that add up to the bigger picture. Peace.
I like specifics,just not on climatological events like El Nino.I prefer more operational things like hurricanes and thunderstorms.
Bigdrvr, have patience. Sounds like you will be getting tropical weather whether you like it or not in a few centuries or so. Where are you anyway ??
Dr. Masters thinks the HWRF will be delayed.
If the La Nina does materialize next year, with the globally warm winter ahead, it ought to make next years sst's interesting.
123. 882MB
Hey everybody, like progressive pulse said earlier next years hurricane season might be very interesting!
Good afternoon,

It seems like some rain might be in the forcast for south florida come new years as another short wave moves northeast then sw and developes an area of low pressure near the vicinity of the new orleans area.The cold front may bring some weather with it but nothing severe is expected this time around.So the New Year celebrations may go without any sinificant problems. Adrian

PS!Happy early New Years to everyone...
You know, this winter in SE Michigan (detroit) has been very odd. WE've seen more rain than snow. The biggest amount measured this years daily is 1 inch, altogether this years, roughly 3 inches, which is WAYYYYYYy below average. However, we have had the colder air around, but the systems outrun it with the fast moving jet streams in place. However, I was looking at the maps, everyone overall will remain below average in precip. and above average in temperatures. Still, none the less, El nino or not, with the warm grounds around, faster moving jet streams, and atmospheric warming, our snow chances will continue to decrease in the future. Who knows, our grandsons and great grandsons may never be able to experience the joys of a blizzard or snowstorm the way it's looking.
This is something interesting (from the CPC's hazards outlook):
For Monday January 08 - Thursday January 11: Week 2 numerical model means are indicating a continuation of strong positive height anomalies in eastern North America. This pattern, present, for the entire month of December, is indicative of a positive AO signal. The observed temperature and precipitation anomaly pattern shows a greater correlation to the composites for a positive AO signal than for a warm ENSO event.

Effects of the Arctic Oscillation and El Nino on winter temperatures:



CPC's 6-10 day outlook:



Positive AO + El Nino = the year without a winter... unless you live in Denver or Alaska...
Relatively speaking, Denver is even above average in it's temperature field.
128. Inyo
For whatever reason, though, El Nino has so far had no effect on the west coast, southern California has been colder than average, dry, and very windy - classic La Nina conditions, really.
I agree 882MB,next year's season will be a very good one.
Hopefully, if next year is as active as early forecasts suggest, the steering pattern will stay the same; storms forming in the Caribbean or Gulf would be the main threats in this case; highly favorable conditions near Africa would also help reduce the number of waves getting that far west (as long as steering currents favor recurvature).
I agree Inyo its been very La Nina like around here. Little rain has fallen. Every storm that gets near the area falls apart and comes in weaker then expected. Below average temps at night average to slight below durning the day. dry, and very wind like you said.

Here is an example. A thunderstorm that had produced hail and heavy rain not to far away just fell apart in less then a 1/2 an hour. I only got 0.06 inches of rain.

Earlyer this month they said the 1/2 of January looked very wet. Know are local weather man said that he doesnt see to many chances for rain. I am almost certain that it will not be an above average season. Once Febuary ends thats about it for down here.

Here is what it looked liked it looked very very good...


This is all I got. If you look very close you can see a light rain...


credit NSIDC
Biloxi.Miss Aug28-29 05

Nov 2006 & Nov 1978
maybe u should talk to a umm friend of mine hes good with umm people with umm certain lets say issues
Lie down on the Couch CB..Tell me More..
yeah and i am sure one of those guys is reading this blog right now...hey donald love the dew! please!
OMG..LMAO..Okay...How long have youve been harboring a fear of Bridges and tunnels?
Looks like we will be under the gun Sat. at this time.
Evening crab..Looks like a 24 hr push back on the brunt
Yeppers it is looking like it the front seems to be slowing a bit and that worries me more.
CB your enthusiasim is great your theory however lacks a lot.
Training worries?
Found out Cyclonebuster and I share the same name..from a mutual aquaintance.Who went to school with CB.
Hey MichaelSTL thanks for the great info tonight.

Does anyone have a long term forcast for the west coast, central california?

Thanks
Patrick
Pat stay in touch it might get worse I have had to setup a new puter the other one crashed so keep the eye to the sky and if you and Theresa, and Nova need to get away come on over we got room till the weather passes or longer if you wish.
CB very familiar with the Born tube. I taught scuba diving for many years many crude methods have proven its need.
Thats nice sandcrab..Ill keep that in mind as we get into tommorrow.This one has a mean look on satelitte,
This is impressive already..for the infrared..Link
Hey Butch. I'll send you a quick email.
I agree Pat and the way the models are running your area is going to get the brunt but it drives northward after the southern parishes so if ya wanna road trip the door is open.
animated ...LinkWondeer if a closed low to form in GOM ahead of the ULL.
Hey Margie ok wu mail or other.
Well remember ya got a place to stay in MS
The GFSx seems to show your thinking.Link
I have been watching this system before it hit land and I am not shure why but it has had me concerned this slow down worries me more.
Okay sandcrab,,Ill mull it over with the Wife.If we see it going downhill.We may bounce.
Well you are most welcome to be here got plenty cold beers.lol
Okay were Leaving Now!..Urp!..LOLr
Sometimes..a MArine Aviator has to Just Ditch his Harrier..and Get WET!.
and be a Human ejector..LOL!
Cyclone, your tunnels have a physical problem. Cool water will rise in them. But cool water is denser than hot water. As the cool water rises, it creates a "head" of pressure downwards. At a certain point, this will equal the pressure caused by the current and there will be zero net flow. If the height isn't very high, you might be able to get it to work, but at any significant height, it will fail.

If you want proof of which force will dominate, try this:
Put a nozzle on the end of a garden hose, and leave it closed. Fill the hose completely with water. Hang the open end of the hose at least a few feet above your head.
Now, stick the nozzle of the hose in your mouth, open it, and blow with all your might.

If you're right, then the pressure at the top will be lower than the pressure at the bottom, so the water will flow up.

If I'm right, the weight of the water in your hose will totally overwhelm you, and will spray everywhere out the nozzle end.


Give it a shot and see what happens.
Note: I'm not saying you couldn't find ways to get cold water to flow up the tunnels, but you'll need a source of energy to do it. (Wave action from an approaching storm?)
The problem is that there is a back pressure, due to gravity, resulting in ZERO NET PRESSURE DIFFERENCE. The net pressure difference and the actual pressure difference are NOT the same, and the NET pressure difference is what matters.
These physical laws that you speak of assume that the fluid has a constant density, and assume that there is no force counteracting the flow.

So again, try my hose idea. Blow into the bottom end. It should flow from high pressure to low!
OK, here's another way to put it:
Assume I put a 100CFM (cubic foot per minute) fan at one end of a tube, pointing into the tube.
Now assume I put a second fan, at 100CFM, HALFWAY through the tube, but pointing in the other direction.

Now obviously the end of the tube without the fan is at a much lower pressure than the end with the fan pointed in, but there will be no flow through the tube. Why? Because there is no NET pressure difference.

In your tunnel idea, the current is acting like the fan at the end. Gravity acting on the cold, dense water is acting like the fan in the middle.
Also, with the hose, if you try it, you should also be able to position the hose end at a certain level where the pressure from your lungs equals the pressure from the 'head' of water above your mouth, resulting in no flow in either direction. If you blow on a partially filled hose, you should be able to get the same 'head' every time. (Assuming you blow with the same strength every time.)
Is this a tunnel debate?
He's trying to explain to CB why his tunnels arent physically sound. Something many of us here have tried and failed to do since CB is irrational about the whole idea.
I've seen what the top scientists have said about your idea. They arent jumping for joy and shouting that you've saved the world now are they? If the tunnels worked in such a simple and effective fashion as you proclaim then the scientists you talked to would be doing much more then just telling you to keep trying. They'd be testing the idea themselves so that they could benifit from them.

BTW, I live in SW FL for a reason...I never want to see a white Christmas.
LOL, thats a bad excuse that you just made up. The media would love the tunnels. If they worked the way you wished then they would produce renewable energy. Hell, you'd probably have a better chance just pitching the idea to media outlets; they're dumb enough to believe ya and are always looking for a good story.
204. ao
Hi all, thought some of you might find this interesting (and somewhat El Nino related):

East of Indian Ocean (SEA Region)
This probably explains all that rain we've been getting here. =(
By the way, let's assume your tunnels work.

What happens then?

You divert current, and heat, from the conveyer that moves heat around the oceans.

Almost all of the major catastrophe scenarios involving global warming involve the shutdown of this current. And they say that just a little change in the energy of this current could shut it down. Even without a shutdown, diverting energy from this current would have far-reaching effects on the climate.

If you want a multibillion dollar project that might actually accomplish something, build thousands of nuclear-powered turbines to keep the currents flowing if the thermohaline gradient breaks down due to glacial meltwater. You'll only have to keep it going until the ice all melts, then the gradient will return, and you can divert the power to other human needs!

Build my idea! My idea prevents THIS!
All right guys...I've been seeing your ideas and your thoughts and, while actually genuis, you forgot one important thing. Nature knows what it is doing and the earth knows what needs to be done to restore the balance. We can't fix the imbalance we created by trying more and more to control it. We need to back off and leave nature alone. Yes, cut back on the pollution or eliminate it completely, analyze those things human beings are doing that may be disturbing the "natural balance" of things and try to curb those but don't, do not try to control the balance with human intervention. It won't work, it will bankrupt us trying.

That's just my thought. You guys are way smarter than me and your ideas are amazing, but it's nature and it's God's creation and those are the only parties in this whole scene who can really fix or not fix something. Perhaps what we see as broken is a natural event occuring to restore what really is broken. I don't know, but I don't think we have the power or ability to correct or control it on our own.
Extinction is inevitable, it has occured several times in the history of the Earth and it will repeat itself again and man cannot prevent it. If you are worried about a big chunk of ice falling into the ocean and causing tsunami, then you are worried about the wrong chunk. I would be more worried about a chunk of an island that has cracked in 10 miles of length and 1000's of feet of depth, and has been sliding into the ocean. It is known it will eventually let go and the speed at which it will hit the water will cause 1000ft tsunami's in Morocco, and 100ft tsunami's here in the US. It is a known fact, not some theory being concocted. A 40 mile by basicly 1 mile thick piece of ice is a theory and has no basis. That 40 miles covers a lot of gradient and when is the last time you seen a glacier roll off in minutes let alone an entire glacier 40miles X 1mile?
Ice Mass Snaps Free From Canada's Arctic

Published: 12/29/06, 6:45 AM EDT
By ROB GILLIES

TORONTO (AP) - A giant ice shelf has snapped free from an island south of the North Pole, scientists said Thursday, citing climate change as a "major" reason for the event.

The Ayles Ice Shelf - all 41 square miles of it - broke clear 16 months ago from the coast of Ellesmere Island, about 500 miles south of the North Pole in the Canadian Arctic.

Scientists discovered the event by using satellite imagery. Within one hour of breaking free, the shelf had formed as a new ice island, leaving a trail of icy boulders floating in its wake.

Warwick Vincent of Laval University, who studies Arctic conditions, traveled to the newly formed ice island and couldn't believe what he saw.

"This is a dramatic and disturbing event. It shows that we are losing remarkable features of the Canadian North that have been in place for many thousands of years," Vincent said. "We are crossing climate thresholds, and these may signal the onset of accelerated change ahead."

The ice shelf was one of six major shelves remaining in Canada's Arctic. They are packed with ancient ice that is more than 3,000 years old. They float on the sea but are connected to land.

Some scientists say it is the largest event of its kind in Canada in 30 years and that climate change was a major element.

"It is consistent with climate change," Vincent said, adding that the remaining ice shelves are 90 percent smaller than when they were first discovered in 1906. "We aren't able to connect all of the dots ... but unusually warm temperatures definitely played a major role."

Laurie Weir, who monitors ice conditions for the Canadian Ice Service, was poring over satellite images in 2005 when she noticed that the shelf had split and separated.

Weir notified Luke Copland, head of the new global ice lab at the University of Ottawa, who initiated an effort to find out what happened.

Using U.S. and Canadian satellite images, as well as seismic data - the event registered on earthquake monitors 155 miles away - Copland discovered that the ice shelf collapsed in the early afternoon of Aug. 13, 2005.

Copland said the speed with which climate change has effected the ice shelves has surprised scientists.

"Even 10 years ago scientists assumed that when global warming changes occur that it would happen gradually so that perhaps we expected these ice shelves just to melt away quite slowly," he said.

Derek Mueller, a polar researcher with Vincent's team, said the ice shelves get weaker and weaker as temperatures rise. He visited Ellesmere Island in 2002 and noticed that another ice shelf had cracked in half.

"We're losing our ice shelves and this a feature of the landscape that is in danger of disappearing altogether from Canada," Mueller said.

Within days of breaking free, the Ayles Ice Shelf drifted about 30 miles offshore before freezing into the sea ice. A spring thaw may bring another concern: that warm temperatures will release the new ice island from its Arctic grip, making it an enormous hazard for ships.

"Over the next few years this ice island could drift into populated shipping routes," Weir said.

Glacier Break up
211. WSI
"I've been seeing your ideas and your thoughts and, while actually genuis, you forgot one important thing. Nature knows what it is doing and the earth knows what needs to be done to restore the balance. We can't fix the imbalance we created by trying more and more to control it. We need to back off and leave nature alone."

This is the smartest thing I have seen posted here in a long time. Well said.
Glaciers & earthquakes they have found are quite tied together. Not only glaciers lubricated by melt water underneath, lurching around crashing causing them, there is the unloading of the wieght of the glaciers on top of fault areas that allow huge, massive quakes to occure. Nasa link
Posted By: saddlegait at 1:46 PM GMT on December 29, 2006.

All right guys...I've been seeing your ideas and your thoughts and, while actually genuis, you forgot one important thing. Nature knows what it is doing and the earth knows what needs to be done to restore the balance. We can't fix the imbalance we created by trying more and more to control it. We need to back off and leave nature alone. Yes, cut back on the pollution or eliminate it completely, analyze those things human beings are doing that may be disturbing the "natural balance" of things and try to curb those but don't, do not try to control the balance with human intervention. It won't work, it will bankrupt us trying.

That's just my thought. You guys are way smarter than me and your ideas are amazing, but it's nature and it's God's creation and those are the only parties in this whole scene who can really fix or not fix something. Perhaps what we see as broken is a natural event occuring to restore what really is broken. I don't know, but I don't think we have the power or ability to correct or control it on our own.


While I'm not certain mother nature knows what she's doing, I sure know that we don't. Frankly, my "build this" idea is pretty much pure crap. It was just a crazy idea that might actually accomplish something. I just wanted to dabble in the realm of crazy ideas, too. You don't think we could really build it, do you? Thousands of nuclear powered turbines? Maybe if desparation set in, and it was the only way to save humanity.

Otherwise, we're going to have to deal with what the earth does. We've built up a good case for us being the guilty culprits for the warming, but there's not much we can do about it for the time being. And who knows? Maybe we'll like the warmth?

The real issue here is that people fear change. People pay attention to what they fear, and the media makes money from people's attention. So of course they'll play it up for all it's worth. Frankly, I think we'll all be fine, and someday my great grandchildren will be lying on an Antarctic beach, sipping pina colada out of a pineapple.
Posted By: Skyepony at 2:42 PM GMT on December 29, 2006.

Glaciers & earthquakes they have found are quite tied together. Not only glaciers lubricated by melt water underneath, lurching around crashing causing them, there is the unloading of the wieght of the glaciers on top of fault areas that allow huge, massive quakes to occure.


Yep. The Great Lakes, Scandanavia, and several other regions still have quakes as the earth rebounds from the weight of the ice from the last ice age.
By the way... My nuclear powered turbines almost certainly wouldn't work.

10 bonus points to the first person who can tell me why.

(Not that points are worth anything.)

I'll be back in a few hours to check.

Hint: If you actually wanted it to work, you'd probably have to build a tunnel! (And one heck of a tunnel at that!)
Yet you are missing what was exactly said.
But if a 7000 foot tall X 40 mile wide chunk of ice falls into the water from Greenland then what? A giant Tsunami? How big is that wave going to be?

A tsunami from a direct result of a chunk of ice displacing water. Not earthquakes caused by ice melt, or weight displacement. He stated a chunk of ice 40 miles wide and over a mile thick falling into the ocean.
As far as the type of faults in the arctic area, you will not see that type of an earthquake to generate a large tsunami that can equate to mass destruction of costal cities. The type of fault it takes do not exist there. Like I said, it is a much more realistic and probable death from a tsunami generated by the Canary Island that is split, than a chunk of ice falling into the ocean. Rock can stay in larger chunks, proof positive the very plates in which our continents float upon. Glaciers tend to break into chunks, proof positive the video posted above.
Caffine - you are right that people fear the change -especially when it involves some personal sacrifice! We are now a "me" generation and we fail to recognize the needs past our own. Therefore, we can banter about the damage the collective "me's/we" are doing to the world yet point our finger at the bigger me's such as the corporations while still buying their products because giving up those products would cause us a little discomfort or make us have to work a little harder.

Our own politicians tell us "this is for YOU" and "We are gonna make YOUR life better" and we vote them back in because we still insist on looking at the ME part of the equation and don't want to look at the WE part of the equation. Most of us don't even bother to vote because the would take a little more effort in learning to be responsible voters so we just say "oh we can't change it so why bother". The few who do vote and run for office have become almost as genuis at capitalizing on that as you few have become with your theories and scientific solutions.

I don't have the answers - no SINGLE person does and we seem to be completely unwilling to work together past the point of the individual recognition we might receive from it.
Yes people do fear change, but to say it's cool my great grandkids will be enjoying the coast of Antartica isn't realistic. This is rooted in an overpopulation problem & everyone isn't gonna even fit on the farter reaches of the poles, none the less grow enough food. Whole populations aren't gonna migrate like that either. Right now Australia is in some trouble with a severe 5 year drought that is really taking a hit on the food supply there. Scientist are wondering if this is gonna last another year or 2 (once the effects of El Nio fade) or since it started before then, if this is from climate change. Past studies there show it just stops raining for 50-500 years over the whole continent when the earth hits these hot peaks. For a country that refused to believe CO2 emmissions have anything to do with global warming a year ago (they are heavily into making money on oil), they plan on being a world leader in renewable energy & getting off oil now.

To say we can do nothing to get the excess CO2 out of the air is being uninformed...this is a budding new market area. A place money will be made in stocks & what not in the future. Ways have been devised to pull CO2 from out of the air & bury it back underground. Some of the 1st ideas of this had it being pumped into the oceans but that has been mostly scrapped because of the acidic issues. Though the research was fundamental in realizing how the ocean uptakes some extra CO2 & the consiquenses.
I think you are going to have to look into way more than just fossil fuels for the reduction. Population growth has to be slowed, with that you eliminate the increasing needs for all fuels, less livestock, less resources used for building, and less land reclamation. The last one is intersting, we know the worlds oceans are the largest CO2 sink, yet we are reclaiming land by pumping up billions of cubic tons of bottom sand from the oceans which contains cubic tons of CO2.
Devices that reduce CO2 are not going to reduce enoogh CO2, reduction in fossil fuel usage is not going to be enough to reverse the CO2 trend. Both of them combined will have little effect at this time. You need a much larger change that effects the entire population of this planet. You are also fighting a normal process that occurs. Eliminating our contribution is still only a small percentage of the the normal occurance. I am for it, but it requires understanding that we are not going to reverse a natural event along the way while curbing our part.
Skepony has the Logic and wisdom to show the Problem as it is.Thanks for your research and postings.They give many a better view of the Topic.
Ditto what Patrap said - she took the time to do the research and post the facts. Thanks Skye.
A much more interesting "tsunami" occured a few weeks ago during supposed solar minimum.

http://www.spaceweather.com/swpod2006/08dec06/ospan.gif
What are we looking at there BigBake? I notice that this link shows it occuring very quickly.
I agree with Patrap.Skye knows what she's talking about.I know next to nothing about global warming.
Ancient ice shelf breaks free from Canadian Arctic
POSTED: 11:31 a.m. EST, December 29, 2006
Story Highlights Scientist: "Disturbing event" shows "we are crossing climate thresholds"
Researchers using satellite images discovered 2005 event
Collapse picked up by earthquake monitors 155 miles away
Adjust font size:
TORONTO, Ontario (AP) -- A giant ice shelf the size of 11,000 football fields has snapped free from Canada's Arctic, scientists said.

The mass of ice broke clear 16 months ago from the coast of Ellesmere Island, about 800 kilometers (497 miles) south of the North Pole, but no one was present to see it in Canada's remote north.

Scientists using satellite images later noticed that it became a newly formed ice island in just an hour and left a trail of icy boulders floating in its wake. (Watch the satellite images that clued in ice watchers)

Warwick Vincent of Laval University, who studies Arctic conditions, traveled to the newly formed ice island and could not believe what he saw.

"This is a dramatic and disturbing event. It shows that we are losing remarkable features of the Canadian North that have been in place for many thousands of years. We are crossing climate thresholds, and these may signal the onset of accelerated change ahead," Vincent said Thursday.

In 10 years of working in the region he has never seen such a dramatic loss of sea ice, he said.

The collapse was so powerful that earthquake monitors 250 kilometers (155 miles) away picked up tremors from it.

The Ayles Ice Shelf, roughly 66 square kilometers (41 square miles) in area, was one of six major ice shelves remaining in Canada's Arctic.

Scientists say it is the largest event of its kind in Canada in 30 years and point their fingers at climate change as a major contributing factor.

"It is consistent with climate change," Vincent said, adding that the remaining ice shelves are 90 percent smaller than when they were first discovered in 1906.

"We aren't able to connect all of the dots ... but unusually warm temperatures definitely played a major role."

Laurie Weir, who monitors ice conditions for the Canadian Ice Service, was poring over satellite images in 2005 when she noticed that the shelf had split and separated.

Weir notified Luke Copland, head of the new global ice lab at the University of Ottawa, who initiated an effort to find out what happened.

Using U.S. and Canadian satellite images, as well as data from seismic monitors, Copland discovered that the ice shelf collapsed in the early afternoon of August 13, 2005.

"What surprised us was how quickly it happened," Copland said. "It's pretty alarming.

"Even 10 years ago scientists assumed that when global warming changes occur that it would happen gradually so that perhaps we expected these ice shelves just to melt away quite slowly, but the big surprise is that for one they are going, but secondly that when they do go, they just go suddenly, it's all at once, in a span of an hour."

Within days, the floating ice shelf had drifted a few miles (kilometers) offshore. It traveled west for 50 kilometers (31 miles) until it finally froze into the sea ice in the early winter.

The Canadian ice shelves are packed with ancient ice that dates back over 3,000 years. They float on the sea but are connected to land.

Derek Mueller, a polar researcher with Vincent's team, said the ice shelves get weaker and weaker as the temperature rises. He visited Ellesmere's Ward Hunt Ice Shelf in 2002 and noticed it had cracked in half.

"We're losing our ice shelves, and this a feature of the landscape that is in danger of disappearing altogether from Canada," Mueller said. "In the global perspective Antarctica has many ice shelves bigger than this one, but then there is the idea that these are indicators of climate change."

The spring thaw may bring another concern as the warming temperatures could release the ice shelf from its Arctic grip. Prevailing winds could then send the ice island southwards, deep into the Beaufort Sea.

"Over the next few years this ice island could drift into populated shipping routes," Weir said. "There's significant oil and gas development in this region as well, so we'll have to keep monitoring its location over the next few years."

A huge explosion occured resulting in a wave traveling the surface of the sun. It was the result of magnetic feilds stretched to their limits and snapping like rubber bands. The force caused a massive outburst of energy outward and the magnetic fields retracting back caused a tsunami like feature to go across the surface. Now there was also a shock wave that traveled above the surface and around the sun. It eliminated all the filaments that float above the surface, it was like someone erased the features off the sun.
From CB's link above, about an ice free Baltic:

The only headache is for fishermen.

"Fish are eating too much and getting fat in the current conditions," Kouts said.

Fishermen prefer lean fish, which give a better quality, firmer flesh when cooked, he said.

"Fishermen say there's not much sense in catching the fat fish as they are too flaky and fall apart" when cooked, Kouts said.


Someone on here probably knows a better way to cook the fish.

Ancient ice shelf breaks free from Canadian Arctic
POSTED: 11:31 a.m. EST, December 29, 2006
Story Highlights Scientist: "Disturbing event" shows "we are crossing climate thresholds"
Researchers using satellite images discovered 2005 event
Collapse picked up by earthquake monitors 155 miles away
Adjust font size:
TORONTO, Ontario (AP) -- A giant ice shelf the size of 11,000 football fields has snapped free from Canada's Arctic, scientists said.

The mass of ice broke clear 16 months ago from the coast of Ellesmere Island, about 800 kilometers (497 miles) south of the North Pole, but no one was present to see it in Canada's remote north.

Scientists using satellite images later noticed that it became a newly formed ice island in just an hour and left a trail of icy boulders floating in its wake. (Watch the satellite images that clued in ice watchers)

Warwick Vincent of Laval University, who studies Arctic conditions, traveled to the newly formed ice island and could not believe what he saw.

"This is a dramatic and disturbing event. It shows that we are losing remarkable features of the Canadian North that have been in place for many thousands of years. We are crossing climate thresholds, and these may signal the onset of accelerated change ahead," Vincent said Thursday.

In 10 years of working in the region he has never seen such a dramatic loss of sea ice, he said.

The collapse was so powerful that earthquake monitors 250 kilometers (155 miles) away picked up tremors from it.

The Ayles Ice Shelf, roughly 66 square kilometers (41 square miles) in area, was one of six major ice shelves remaining in Canada's Arctic.

Scientists say it is the largest event of its kind in Canada in 30 years and point their fingers at climate change as a major contributing factor.

"It is consistent with climate change," Vincent said, adding that the remaining ice shelves are 90 percent smaller than when they were first discovered in 1906.

"We aren't able to connect all of the dots ... but unusually warm temperatures definitely played a major role."

Laurie Weir, who monitors ice conditions for the Canadian Ice Service, was poring over satellite images in 2005 when she noticed that the shelf had split and separated.

Weir notified Luke Copland, head of the new global ice lab at the University of Ottawa, who initiated an effort to find out what happened.

Using U.S. and Canadian satellite images, as well as data from seismic monitors, Copland discovered that the ice shelf collapsed in the early afternoon of August 13, 2005.

"What surprised us was how quickly it happened," Copland said. "It's pretty alarming.

"Even 10 years ago scientists assumed that when global warming changes occur that it would happen gradually so that perhaps we expected these ice shelves just to melt away quite slowly, but the big surprise is that for one they are going, but secondly that when they do go, they just go suddenly, it's all at once, in a span of an hour."

Within days, the floating ice shelf had drifted a few miles (kilometers) offshore. It traveled west for 50 kilometers (31 miles) until it finally froze into the sea ice in the early winter.

The Canadian ice shelves are packed with ancient ice that dates back over 3,000 years. They float on the sea but are connected to land.

Derek Mueller, a polar researcher with Vincent's team, said the ice shelves get weaker and weaker as the temperature rises. He visited Ellesmere's Ward Hunt Ice Shelf in 2002 and noticed it had cracked in half.

"We're losing our ice shelves, and this a feature of the landscape that is in danger of disappearing altogether from Canada," Mueller said. "In the global perspective Antarctica has many ice shelves bigger than this one, but then there is the idea that these are indicators of climate change."

The spring thaw may bring another concern as the warming temperatures could release the ice shelf from its Arctic grip. Prevailing winds could then send the ice island southwards, deep into the Beaufort Sea.

"Over the next few years this ice island could drift into populated shipping routes," Weir said. "There's significant oil and gas development in this region as well, so we'll have to keep monitoring its location over the next few years."

like hello any commets on this what you think of this ????????????????????????????????????
How fast did the sun-ami travel? Is the movie in real time?
It was posted previously, Taz. Interesting story though. Comments are above.
oh sorry did not see the commet


oh did any see some in new with my id?
2007 is upon us. Time to get ready!
The only info on the video was that its contrast has been edited to improve the visibilty of the wave. All my sources say that was a real time video and that the waves spread at nearly 700,000 miles per hour.
evere one run the sea level is going up lol
That dubious YouTube link deserves another.
All i can say is wow!
cyclonebuster is Greenland all icy? and its raining there?
90S is getting stronger Link
You're talking bout the flare up near 9N and 103W? Looks like there might be a surface circulation trying to form. But its not getting much help from the coriolis force and shear thats around 30kts. And Navy isnt showing much interest, not even an invest tagged on it.
a low pressure area is churning northeast of Madagascar, close to the area where Tropical Cyclone Bondo developed. The low is centered near 10 south and 54 east. Within the next 24 hours, the low has a good chance of developing into a tropical system. Should this occur, the storm would be named Clovis.
Hey Taz how have you been my friend? Any snow yet this year?

Can anyone post a link to longterm forcasts for California? Thanks
That flare up of storms in the eastern pacific is not forecast to become a depression because its in an area of unfavourable conditions.
There is no invest tagged on it
Whatever you say
That doesn't sound good
There are already 70 degree dew points in south Texas. Combine that with 2000-3500 kg/J CAPE, extremely strong low level jet and high shear, and you have one heck of a situation.
Weather.com/Accuweather arent talking the Tornado situation up much........
I thought it was going poof! But now its rebuilding on the radar and the warnings are back up.

I dont think anyone expects for tornadoes to be an issue this early in the winter season.
Looks like 4-5 inches of rain is instore for you guys near texas in the next couple of days.

For more storm info and maps visit my website @ Adrian's weather click on storm page.comments welcomed in my guestbook.Thanks Adrian
11 tornado reports for TX in the last 3 hrs. Some possible injuries.

Thanks Patrap & Saddlegait. Patrap, that article you posted yesterday was awesome. I read the whole thing, not just #3. There are many valid reasons to stop using oil. & Saddlegait you've posed a lot of good questions.
Another huge outbreak in a year that has had too many (billions of dollars of severe weather damage so far this year)... anybody up for a possible explanation (maybe the same reason winter no longer exists)?

Edit: it is likely for the same reason the winter is non-existant (source):

For much of December 2005; a cold, stable Arctic air mass prevailed over much of the United States east of the Rockies. However, by the start of the new year the pattern began to reverse itself, and moist, unstable air once again flowed northward from the Gulf of Mexico (a pattern normally reserved for spring) and combined with a series of strong low pressure systems tracking across the country, conditions were present for tornado formation.


Only, it has begun earlier this "winter"..... I think I am going to dread the following year; it could even be the year something like this happens...
Bad Situation in Dallas area..Ft Worth..Arlington..Tornadoes on the Ground...
SEVERE page updatedLink
Pat just talked to LIX the next model runs will be the best that we will have to see how we are affected.
Pat just talked to lix the next model runs will tell us more.
Indeed another huge outbreak taking place around the texas area with many tornadoes being reported....

Infrared view thunderstorm activity over the area.


Radar view....

Coffe City in HARMS way..Link
Hope they don't have a New Years Weekend like we had for Christmas! Still crazy how much the damage is not getting out there seems like FEMA is covering up to keep from having to help there is a 7 house wide 10 mile path from the Daytona Airport to the apartments that are the only ones being talked about. My friend lost both cars and large chunks of roof and all trees in thier yard houses on both sides of them destroyed.

We were told would have same Thing on New Years Day is that the storm over Texas now? What do you guys think about timeing on it in Florida and does it maintain it's twister making dtatus to us?
President Bush was briefly put in an Armored car in Crawford Texas during Tornado warning there.
FEMA is a Clusterfu@#...take it from a New Orleanian..do it yourself but save all yer receipts and give to your city mgrs..for reimbursment.I did.
FEMA is a Clusterfu@#...take it from a New Orleanian..do it yourself but save all yer receipts and give to your city mgrs..for reimbursment.I did.

I'll give you an Amen on that both FEMA and my Insurance came after Charlie all We are going to fix the hole in the roof and paint it and blah blah blah you know what I got NOTHING! I paid to repair the ripped off roof vent and put up the sheet rock which is still not painted because out of pocket after paying insurance pisses me off so will just be there till FEMA comes back and paints it them selves since and I quote "WE ARE GOING TO PAINT THIS" so he should be getting back soon with his paint brush Right? LOL But the millionairs in Miami got some new dirt to the tune of several million dollars *Insert eyeroll here*

Soooo off the soap box now any ideas on if we should be expecting the worst again since we only had 7 mins notice on Christmas Day.
Dallas has only been hit with mostly the torrential rains. However, Houston is VERY lucky there cappe dthis evening. I know there about ready to pass out with mid 70 degree dewpoints donw ther though. The activity should SLOWLY wane during the overnight from north to south.
THanks wfreek feeling a little better. Driving home today and looking in literally the apartments was just erie with thier stuff still in there and the walls and roof ripped off just freaky
I checked the radar out of Dallas, looks like the tops in a lot of the storms have lowered significantly (some below 10,000). Depedning on how much instability is left in Houston before the overnight, they still could see some ISOLATED stronger storms. There that on cluster over the gulf. Have to see how it develops as it gets closer towards the Metro Houston area.
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Looks like that "Squall Line" is developing. However, looking at the local radar out of CC, the clouds tops in that lines are below 10,000 ft and there aren't any detectable lightning strikes. Also, should note that it's probably AT THIS TIME, AT THE WORST, producing torrential downpours.
Just got an email from my sister in Cedar Hill TX, south Dallas county before her battery power ran out. Seems there is significant rain and T storms causing havoc in the area. Not far from her, earlier a tornado touched down and did lots of damage. Anyone else hear anything from down that way? Would appreciate any news if possible. She said they had a major T storm passing over and that they had already had about 3 inches of rain....

thanks
A predicted thaw in the Arctic ice cover combined with a search for energy supplies is leading to a new "gold rush" in the high north, bringing diplomatic problems in its wake as five countries vie for access to resources.

Storms In Central, North Texas Leave 1 Dead, Several Injured
Tornado Touches Down In College Station

POSTED: 12:00 pm CST December 28, 2006
UPDATED: 8:23 pm CST December 29, 2006

FORT WORTH, Texas -- Severe storms with strong winds, heavy rain and hail prompted tornado warnings across North and Central Texas Friday, leaving at least one dead and several injured.

Tarrant County is under a flash flood warning until 9:15 p.m. A tornado watch has been issued for the area until 2 a.m. Saturday.


The Associated Press reported one person was killed when a tornado struck a home in Limestone County, and the Waco Tribune-Herald reported at least 12 people suffered injuries in Central Texas.

Flying debris injured people in Groesbeck, Texas, said Sherald Wood, the marketing director of Limestone Medical Center.

A tornado touched down at about 3:15 p.m. at a College Station apartment complex, the Bryan College Station Eagle reported.

The tornado left a five-mile path of destruction in the College Station area, spokeswoman Rhonda Seaton said. Two gas leaks and one fire were also reported in the area, but there was only one minor injury, police said.

from http://kxas.nbcweatherplus.com/weathernews/10622944/detail.html

I talked to some in-laws in Richland Hills (just east of Fort Worth). They had to go out in the downpour to clear the drainage near the house to keep the house from flooding.
Hi everyone, I live in Mobile,Alabama and I was wondering if anyone thinks this bad weather Texas is having, do we have a chance at it being as severe as Texas is getting know when it makes it here. On Fox 10 they said we where going to get this front that's in Texas and I've been reading how bad it is and I was just wondering.
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Well your borderline in the slight risk area. The SPC however say instability will be weaker tomorrow as a Squall line with extensive cloud cover comes across LA. Capes are expected toreac to 1000 J/KG. Today, Capes reahed as high as 3500 J/KG in spots. However, with the strongest storms, large hail, damaging winds, and a isoated tornado is possible. The same general ingredients except the instabilty apepars to have remained in place though
Thanks LowerCal and Skyepony. Appreciate your information. I sure hope this system soon passes and that the good folks down there have a safe night of it.
Wfreeck: Thank You
Skye no matter how that pie ends up being sliced Big Oil benefits by the disappearance of ice from the Arctic. It's another incentive for Big Oil to oppose any action to limit CO2.
OKAY!..WU radars back up ..The fray begins here...Link
Keep your head down Pat
They should make a movie of this bad weather
New Orleans(Kenner)..west of airport this morning
Hey Pat, Sandcrab......happy new year and all that. Got your helmets on???
happy new year oh wants to party oh as the beer i am going to have 100 beers on new years LOL
Hey Taz...nice snow pics on your blog. Makes me glad to be sitting here.....sleeveless, bare feet......good beer!
reeldrlaura thanks you sould stop by my blog some times
been there many times, Taz.....specially during the "season". I lived in both no and so cal while going to school (Berkeley, stanford, UC riverside too.) You're site is on my "list"! Ha!
I'm signing off 'till next year, all......have a happy new year, be safe....make GOOD CHOICES! HA!
One year today!!

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

...LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORM...THE 27TH OF THE YEAR...FORMS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...



what a season....
A Strong line of thunderstroms is definately makeing its way towards the New Orleans area...Take cover.


Only 152 days.I'll be posting a report on Annular hurricanes in my blog later.
90S near Madagascar Link
95S (for some reason they renamed 93S to 95S) has some tremendous convection:





Gulp...

By the way, I put some polls up in my blog (besides a summary of the disasterous weather in my area this year).
Its one hell of a big storm
For comparison to past storms with similar appearances:

Katrina
Chaba
Songda
And, if you are wondering, here is Tip; in all of these cases, the indicated pressure is not accurate because most (all global) models don't have the resolution needed to resolve the very small low pressure area in a tropical cyclone (mainly in the eye); for extratropical cyclones, they will be fairly close due to their much larger size; this is also why the lowest pressure for most tropical cyclones will be during the extratropical phase (if it becomes extratropical).
Hey Reeldrlaura..Go Saints!
As of early Saturday, an area of low pressure remains to the northeast of Madagascar, centered near 12.3 degrees south and 57.1 degrees east. Maximum winds are averaging around 23 mph, tracking slowly to the west-southwest. This tropical low pressure system has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 24-48 hours, and if it does, the storm will be known as Clovis. The projected path of this tropical system will be towards the southwest and may affect eastern Madagascar during next week.

I think that it is already a tropical storm...

30/1430 UTC 13.2S 55.9E T2.5/2.5 90S
30/0830 UTC 12.3S 56.1E T2.5/2.5 90S

T2.5 is 35 kts, tropical storm intensity. It looks like it, too.
Hope it doesn't intensify rapidly like Bondo did.
It seems to me that in the Southern Hemisphere they wait until a system is a tropical storm before issuing advisories; earlier, 90S had 30 kt winds, which is when the NHC or the JTWC (in the West Pacific) usually start advisories (unless it develops very rapidly or from an extratropical system).
There is a INVEST in the western Pacific.
Indeed....NRL has winds currently at 15kts.


Patrap I sure hope you and your loved ones are in a safe area. Looks like the storm front has now moved to include New Orleans. Take call all of you good folks down there. My prayers go out for all of you
Yes, The line may wane a tad though as its moving away from it's MAIN energy source. Noine the less, locally gusty winds and Torrential rainks are likely in New Orleans for the early evening hours.
Well, NWS has included the slight chance of Widespread thunderstorms, and even record setting moisture amounts for the monthh of December in the forecast for Sunday Afternoon. Very odd weather to say the least.
NWS out of Miami...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY RETURN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINT VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASES AHEAD OF A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES AND EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS BUT MENTION
IN THE ZONE FORECAST. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET/CMC GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM
GUIDANCE JUST A FEW HOURS SLOWER. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THAT
THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
Long range GFS brings rain back into the forcast for florida.