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Dr. Suppresso

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:08 PM GMT on October 09, 2006

The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. A non-tropical low pressure system off the coast of North Carolina today is expected to intensify and move northeastward this week. This low should remain non-tropical, but could gain some tropical characteristics and give Nova Scotia heavy rain on Friday. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development in the Atlantic this week, and the flow pattern reminds me more of November than October.

Interview with Hurricane Specialist Dr. Jack Beven
With hurricane season winding down, it's time to pay tribute to the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center that have done such an excellent job over the years. You've seen the familiar signatures at the bottom of the National Hurricane Center advisories--Avila, Beven, Stewart, Franklin, Pasch, and Knabb (and this year, joined by five new names!) It's these hurricane specialists that form the bedrock of the superb NHC hurricane forecasts. They are fantastic at what they do, and I rely heavily on their expertise. I'll be doing profiles of two of the forecasters this hurricane season, so you can see the faces behind the names.

"Beven" is Dr. John L. Beven II, one of the six senior hurricane specialists at the NHC. Jack, 45, has been working at the Hurricane Center since 1988. He started then as an intern while working on his Ph.D., and landed one of the coveted hurricane specialist jobs in 1993.

Jack graduated in 1984 from Louisiana State University with a Bachelor's in Physics. He got his Masters degree in Meteorology in 1988 from Florida State, and continued on for his Ph.D. in 1994. His advisor was Dr. T.N. Krishnamurti, famous for his numerous research achievements in tropical meteorology, including development of the FSU Superensemble tracking model for hurricanes. Jack's Ph.D. thesis was titled, "Tropical Cyclone-Environmental Interactions During Recurvature - A Modeling and Observational Study".



I got a chance to catch up with Jack this April at a conference in Monterey, and asked him a few questions:

Q:What is your most memorable experience with a hurricane on the ground?

A: Well, back in 1985 while I was in graduate school at FSU, Hurricane Kate came ashore. A bunch of us grad students found a place by the west door of the Love Building sheltered from the wind, and took turns running into the wind.

Q: What do you do in your free time?

I like to go storm chasing! I take a yearly trip out to Oklahoma and chase tornadoes. I'm also a big Dr. Who fan, and enjoy sports, particularly college football, college basketball, and college baseball.

Q: Do you have any comments you'd like to make about the global warming issue?

A: I think there's a lot of room for both natural and man-made effects in the current way the climate is changing.

Jack has the nickname "Dr. Suppresso" among his storm chaser friends, thanks to the tendency for promising supercell thunderstorms to suddenly die out when he approaches--or for an expected outbreak of severe thunderstorms to completely fail, due to a strong capping inversion. With that kind of ability, we need to have him intercepting hurricanes at the coast, instead of writing advisories!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Very nice update Dr. Masters.
May Dr. Suppresso have a large impact on future storms. Thanks Dr. M.
And I am happy to see he attended FSU!!!!!
Geaux Tigers!..and thanks for the SLow..season...
Nice update! Geaux Tigers?? LSU Tigers?? Hnmmm.. Didn't they lose this weekend??..LOL
Heres the weeks weather Highlight..Link
..love that word..frontogenesis!
a Linklearning link...
Holy Cow, I got lost after the first paragraph. I'll try again
I don't know Jack, but - a question for Dr Who-ever:
RE: November like pattern. New Smyrna Beach, Florida completed a beach sand renourishment program last year & it has been great for running & sunning. Some years in November we get extended strong Northeast winds on the East Florida coast that can cause erosion as bad or worse than a tropical storm. What's the outlook for that this year?
LOL Jeff!
And we thought it was ULL's and El Nino...
Apparently "Dr Supresso" has been a lot busier this season than we thought...circumnavigating about the Atlantic basin, keeping tropical cyclone formation in check, between his duties issuing forecasts at the NHC! LOL. The specialists at the NHC are the best... enjoy reading articles featuring them.
Good day to ya!
P.S. Here's a Link that appears to access the Global Nogaps link from the previous blog - with no login. It that it?
Has the fat lady sung yet? Maybe not, but she's definitely warming up just off-stage...
Great topic, these guys are awesome. Fun to see a little about the people behind the words we read so much. Lets not forget my personal favorate (as far as writing style) Formosa.
Yeah but Avila and Stewart are so much fun to read!
.Formosa easy to digest..good style .
..but they all add to the mix..like a good gumbo..cher..
..they all add to the mix..like a good Gumbo...
anyone have a Polar link to see the cold pool ?
This must be the system doing the tugging down from the Artic..its Big!Link
This is the Canadian storm to bring the Polar shot down..Link
..a better view..itsa bigun...Link
Earth's Ecological Debt Crisis: Mankind's 'Borrowing' from Nature Hits New Record

Link
They are like a good gumbo~

It's monday weekly ENSO update is out. The El Nino has weakened slightly for a 2nd week in a row. Not real suprising as the models that got the quick strengthening right peaked early & called for this downward trend.





Also of intrest was the probibility map for the W Caribbean blob..it's taking a little more shear today (though that is forecasted to calm tommarrow). The chances have increased again, now up to light green.

bbl
...interesting article, Ringo. This sounds like something of an Alvin Toffler quote from "Future Shock."

His inference would say that is the point when man reaches the "turning point" and begins regression, or the "shattering stress and disorientation subjected to an individual by too much change in too short of time."

But Toffler also theorized that "knowledge" and "learning" would become inversely proportional. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that we're really learning anything at all, at least nothing that seems to dominate intelligence towards longevity on a global scale. (i.e.--oil problems, nuke testing, war and consumption.)

...good read, thanks!
A very odd radar phenomenon:

I brought up the local radar (Wakefield, VA) and clicked on animation, to track the progress of a coastal storm. While looking at this I noticed an odd pattern inland. A perfectly circular (doughnut shaped) pattern of moderate rain appeared and expanded then dissapated during the 30 minute loop. When it appeared it was about 5 miles in diameter, and disappeared as it got to be about 20-25 miles in diameter. There was no circulation, and the pattern was perfectly symetrical. The surrounding area had patches of light rain (dark green on the radar) the 'doughnut' was light green and yellow. This was centered approximately 40 miles due north of the radar installation at Wakefield, and about 2 miles northeast of New Kent, VA. I didn't note the exact time but it was about 7AM EDT, give or take 20 minutes, when I viewed this (and so, the phenomenon started about 30 minutes earlier).
First time commentor here!

Noticed Dr. Beven's picture was taken in Monterey, CA at the Grand Hyatt (I've been there a few times). Nice place for a conference.
Pointedly - on circular shower, I Remember being on a barrier Island in SW Florida, In Summer, underneath one of the most intense thunderstorms I have seen, at 06:00, supposed to catch a fishing charter, and on the radar there was only one round black (most intense) dot, about 1 mile diameter, stationary right over the dock, with no outlying other colors. The proverbial "black cloud".
P.S. any guesses, predictions, wishcasts, climatology on E central Florida Northeaster's this fall? Thanks
Forgot to say -on the "Black dot thunderstorm" There was no other precipitation at all showing on long-range.
On the models correction article - Made me think of:
"If you've got butterflys, just make sure that they're flying in formation".
Falls coming for the weekend..Link
Fall frontogenesis...GOM...Link
..er..here it is..Link
Just Honors to a group of people who today ,..like then..go above the call of duty and work..congratulations..Link
Domo origato, Dr. Suppresso, domo domo!!

Floodie

P.S. Come on, I know SOMEONE was thinking it...

thanks Dr. M
HIEXPRESS:

This thing was the opposite of your 'black dot thunderstorm.' It was like a droplet hitting a still pool of water. No thunderstorms around, but we've had a nor'easter for the past 3 days! I have no idea what FL or VA face for winter storms this year.
47. IKE
From Saints highlights to the North Korea situation>>>.......tropical season is over for the northern GOM.
On a note of the day..seems appropriatte..That I mention there is a Group..near to my Heart in New orleans..that is still putting their non-profit Program back together.I did the Demolition for this groups boys home in New orleans..This is a program that helps scholastically gifted Boys & girls..and they lost both homes in the flood.They still have great needs. And ILink encourge all who can..to consider helping them in any way.Its easy and the direct results are instant..thanks for indulging..Patrap
This season has been very strange .... maybe by the end of the week things will be more exciting ... the cold air forecast to move into the south should spark some weather fireworks!
Hi ya, Have ya taken a look at the GFS it brings an disturbance from the central atlantic tropical wave to north of PUERTO RICO.
CAN SOMEONE PLEASE POST THE FSU TROPICAL MODELS
Patrap -
On that Times Picayune article... as always, ya rarely hear in the media the contribution we in Houma gave in helping NOLA residents and business operations continue to function... Times Pic set up their fleet and publishing ops here at the Houma Courier for the week plus following Katrina, not Baton Rouge... as a small part of Houma got it's power back within 24 - 30 hrs. I wasn't so lucky... took another 5 days. LOL. Nothing like spending 12 hrs a day chainsawing trees and limbs and removing debris in that sweltering heat and humidity that followed... But I can't complain compared to what y'all went thru - at least I wasn't flooded.
Yeah, its coming. Two jets bouncing off each other... Its the suck zone, baby. Link
Thanx hurricane23 i got your mail interesting! Have you seen the GFS models seems to be interested in the wave around 50 to 60 WEST.
882MB did you get my email from a couple of days ago?
taz
what was your post
post again
Yes I did! Interesting we both Like MJ.
Houma..Dulac..Cocadrie..Sweet Home,Louisiana..for sure.
Yea i saw that 882mb i just checked the 12z GFS and its nothing to worry about.Right now almost the entire basin is under unfavorable conditions for tropical cyclone development.I think we are pretty much done for this season.I susupect if we get something it will probably be no threat to the U.S. Adrian
882mb~ that was 1st hinted at by the nogaps 00 run yesterday, since dropped. The 00Z fsumm5 has it slightly more north & hit by the front sooner.
Taz long current event post was very interesting, although cant escape it on the news. I didn't vote it "off the island" (no right to anyway since mostly lurker, just on a little today). Besides, it did have the word " "Snow" in it :)
I was hoping to get an opinion to an earlier question from some of you experienced regulars.
Geez..thats one long op-ed piece Taz..LOL...no weather there.
You are right hurricane23, but we still got to be vigilant. well im logging off in a lil bit so in case im not on no more you know i logged off probably before 2:25 EST.
You see that trend Skyepony/
Heres the Local met office take on the thing this am..Link
Pat - I should have added - continued best wishes on the rebuilding efforts, m'friend. Neighbor helping neighbor - that's how we'll get 'r done... as we always have in SE LA... Actually, that's a common theme across America!

Good day to yas... work calls.
ah i see
Thanx..be careful...
I was checking out the Dr Who link up there. It's actually Dr Beven's site. Full of great links...Patrap, he's got a link to some polar sat data sites in his TPC links index. Sounds like he played a good bit of D&D too.
Can comeone post TROPICAL STORM NORMAN models? Thanx.
Fuel..Unleaded..US 61 New Orleans..$1.99 gal..
Okay Skye..Im looking for my mittens still..LOL
882MB you can find models for Norman here.
Posted The Artwork we discovered in a House we gutted after Katrinas water went down.."It gave me goosebumps"..on My Blog
How forgettable.


SPC AC 090710

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT MON OCT 09 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CONUS...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGIONS AS POLAR VORTEX BUILDS SWD
AND INTENSIFIES...RESULTING IN LARGE CYCLONE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY END OF THIS PERIOD. WEAK DAY-2 SFC CYCLONE -- SHIFTING
NEWD FROM W TX ACROSS MID MS VALLEY -- WILL BECOME MUCH MORE INTENSE
DAY-3 OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES AS UPPER CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EACH STRENGTHEN. INTENSE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EWD AND SEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

WITH LATEST SREF/MREF GUIDANCE UNAVAILABLE...CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE
EXISTS IN OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING TRACK OF SECONDARY
UPPER CYCLONE OVER CA....AND OF ARCTIC FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. EXTREMES ARE REPRESENTED BY VERY
AGGRESSIVE ETA PROG -- TAKING FRONT DEEP INTO OPEN GULF BY END OF
PERIOD -- AND SPECTRAL...KEEPING FRONTAL ZONE OVER CENTRAL-NW TX
THROUGH PERIOD. INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH
HISTORICAL ANALOGS...ACCOUNTS FOR KNOWN BIAS IN SPECTRAL PRESSURE
FIELDS MENTIONED IN LATEST HPC PMDHMD DISCUSSION...IS REPRESENTED
WELL IN LAST AVAILABLE UKMET/ECMWF RUNS...AND WILL BE USED FOR
OUTLINING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS OUTLOOK.

BY END OF PERIOD...EXPECT PENETRATION OF SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE INTO
NWRN GULF...DEEP S TX OR NERN MEX...DECELERATING ACROSS NWRN GULF
WITH POSSIBLE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE LOWER TX COAST. FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND ENEWD ACROSS NRN GULF THEN NEWD TOWARD
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

...OH/PA TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN TWO PRIMARY REGIMES...
1. AHEAD OF FRONT EARLY-MIDDLE OF PERIOD...IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
REGIME. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ROOTED IN ELEVATED LAYER OF
MRGL BUOYANCY...WITH QUESTIONABLE SVR POTENTIAL.
2. ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE -- AS ASSOCIATED BAND OF
MAXIMIZED ASCENT MOVES EWD INTO WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. STRONGEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/LIFT
SHOULD OCCUR OVER OH VALLEY WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAKEST...BUT
STILL MAY SUPPORT NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION WITH STG-SVR GUST
POTENTIAL. FARTHER SW TOWARD GULF COAST...PRESENCE OF STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WELL NE OF AREA SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS
SWLY...LIMITING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE. INCOMPLETENESS
OF MARINE MODIFICATION IN UPSTREAM RETURN FLOW AIR MASS WILL LIMIT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS MUCH OF REGION...POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION BEING GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO TN VALLEY WHERE UPGRADE MAY BE
NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL FURTHER LIMIT BUOYANCY...AS MAY AREAS OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...SVR PROBABILITY IS
TOO CONDITIONAL TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 10/09/2006

Doesn't exactly scream "run for your lives" does it?
Ron5244 what that map clearly elistrates is that even in a current active cycle we can have slow years in between.
afternoon all,

hope everyone is well.

Patrap, that is some spooky looking art,
did someone die in that house?
My blog has been updated with two more tropical cyclones that had giant eyewalls, and the pictures now work. Come check it out!
If it weren't for one particular storm, this season would be rather forgetable too...

Link
You guys are too quiet. Here is the 2:05 pm TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN
47W AND 56W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH
OF 16W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT
IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THIS WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN
60W AND 63W EAST OF THE WAVE IN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N58W TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N61W AND 11N62W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THE POSITION HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE LAST
MAP ANALYSIS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL AT ALL IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS NEAR THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 9N22W 9N37W 11N49W 11N53W 10N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W AROUND
09/1415 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING. AFTERNOON
HEATING IN COASTAL AREAS HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL GUYANA
BETWEEN 58W AND 60W...AND IN VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN
62W AND 63W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 94W AND THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN END
OF A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH GOES FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOW MOSTLY
JUST EAST OF 90W...WITH THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY SUPPORTS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE GULF
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N77W...26N81W IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...TO 25N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 25N88W TO
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 69W...
FROM A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
WESTERN PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN CLUSTERS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 82W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W EAST OF
THE 64W/65W TROPICAL WAVE...IN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N58W TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N61W AND 11N62W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW IS NEAR
32N77W. LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 70W.
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND CORRESPONDING TROUGH ARE THE
DRIVING FORCES FOR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM 30N77W TO SOUTH
FLORIDA TO 25N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 31N62W 26N67W 23N70W. THIS TROUGH HAS REMAINED ON THE
SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS FOR THE LAST MANY DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE TROUGH...ALONG
21N74W 24N70W 27N68W BEYOND 32N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 75W...AND FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE SPECIFICALLY FROM 29N TO 32N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH
STARTS OUT NEAR 26N54W 23N57W TO 21N58W TO 19N59W TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 30N30W TO 24N29W TO 12N33W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
31N30W TO 30N36W TO 33N43W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FRONT.

$$
MT




12Z surface analysis

GOES East Hurricane SECTOR IR Image
long post...
cyclone genisis probability

Link
72 hour forecast has a lot of 1012 in the area.

72 hour surface forecast
You genesis link matches the sea state for the area in 80W-90W and 10W-20N. Was a bit suprised to see 10 ft waves moving to that area.

atlantic sea state
Long fetch?
i cant find the picture patrap, where is it on your blog
TD 16E
on the 2006 track map it is missing Berlt, Chris, Ensrto
WOW that is all I can say

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY UNSTABLE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WHICH WILL UNDERGO A VERY DRAMATIC AND
RAPID TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THREE KEY PLAYERS HIGHLIGHT
THIS COMPLEX FORECAST PACKAGE:

1.) ENHANCED TROPICAL ACTIVITY AROUND 10N ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PACIFIC CONTINUES FEED ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN BAJA INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...TIED INTO A
MATURE CYCLONE OVER ARIZONA.

2.) JUST NORTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...A SECONDARY LOW WAS BEING
CARVED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO. PROXIMAL EFFECTS OF FUJIWHARA AND
A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC JET UPSTREAM WILL FORCE THIS LOW TO RETROGRADE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KICK THE FIRST SYSTEM EASTWARD
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE FIRST MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

3.) MEANWHILE...STRONG POSITIVE HIGH ANOMALIES STRETCHED FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ERN ALASKA AND THE YUKON TERRITORY WITH A
MATURE CYCLONE AFFECTING MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN ALASKA.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THIS AMPLIFIED RIDGE ORIENTATION WILL ALMOST
ALWAYS FAVOR A SOUTHWARD DISLODGING OF POLAR AIR AS THE UPPER LEVEL
JET IS FORCED TO SPLIT WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE CREST MEETS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS PLAY OUT AS THE EASTWARD BRANCH
OF THIS NARROW AND INTENSE JET STREAK IS RESULTING IN RAPID AND DEEP
CYCLOGENESIS JUST NORTH OF THE SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS SYSTEM AND
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BOTTLED OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL BE
THE SECOND FORECAST CONCERN.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (BELOW 9KFT) WHILE A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RAPID LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL LIKELY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN STRONG 500-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/JET...BECOMES COUPLED WITH INCREASING 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS.
BOTH NAM-WRF AND GFS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MODERATE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE CERTAINLY
JUSTIFIED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL NOT PUT A DENT IN THE BUILDING
DROUGHT. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY AVERAGE 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES.

THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP POLAR VORTEX...ON THE ORDER OF 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
...TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
A NORTHERLY JET STREAK...PROGGED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 150
KNOTS...WILL ALLOW FOR AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL
COLD SURGE TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND THEN
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE END OF PRECIPITATION...AND IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WEDNESDAY. POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
((i expect very low wind chills))...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER MAY MITIGATE FROST POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE. DO NOT BUY INTO
GFS SOLUTION OF A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED. PREFER NAM-WRF SCENARIO WHERE
MOISTURE/LIFT IS ADVECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY
A WEAK SECONDARY AREA OF ASCENT WHERE THE FRONT IS DAMMED AGAINST
THE HIGHER ROCKY TERRAIN. LET`S HOPE THIS IS THE CASE BECAUSE WE
WOULD OTHERWISE BE TALKING ABOUT THE S-WORD((snow)) WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO PEAK SOME 20C BELOW NORMAL. REMEMBER THAT WE JUST HAD 3
RECORD HIGHS IN THE 90S NOT A WEEK AGO!


BOOKBINDER

MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE TRANSITION FROM HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO A MORE
SEASONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF
FOR THIS PACKAGE AS IT HAS DEMONSTRATED EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND IS VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP
THE COLD AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THURSDAY. FEEL THE GFS
IS TOO AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE LIFTED LAYER NORTH...AND LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE ALL BUT SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ECMWF
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH MAIN MIDLEVEL BAROCLINICITY REMAINING CLOSER
TO THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CONCERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND
. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
AND 8H TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT -2C TO -6C...FROSTY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY WITH A KILLING
FREEZE VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
THOUGH NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SOME AREAS COULD FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS IF DEWPOINTS CRASH MORE THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES SUFFICIENTLY (OCT 13 RECORDS : MCI
27/1979...STJ 25/1979).


TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A MORE
ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS. NEXT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE A FAST
MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THIS IS VERY TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT OFFER ANY ADDITIONAL CLUES AS MEMBER SPREAD
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LARGE. ADDED CHANCE POPS IN FOR
SUNDAY AS THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR DEEPER ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

On this date in 1954, famous hurricane forecaster Grady Norton died of a stroke after working many 12-hour days tracking the progress of Hurricane Hazel. While ignoring warnings about his own health, he provided warnings of the storm that would eventually track through North Carolina on October 15th.

The wet phase of MJO has officially made its way into the GOM and the caribbean.Will it spark some late season developement in these areas?We are just going to have to wait and see what happens. Adrian

Thundercloud01221991
The forecast is 984MB in Canada at 12Z on Thursday OCT 12, 2006. That is quite a system.
The attached front reaches to LA and by Friday the attached front will be in the middle of Mexico carrying a low pressure tail. The LOW on the tail could mean tropical interaction.

Here is a visual:

3 day forecast CONUS
lol Ron, now i know why they call it the MORON model...
you have to be a moron to believe it
are you still there Ron...
Nothing Major but it looks like a 1-2 punch for BAJA.

Hey nash28 hope you feel better....Did you get my email?
Yes I did 23 and thank you. I will certainly keep in touch. I will be moving to Tallahassee earlier than expected to start my major in Meteorology. I have completed quite a bit of my Physics minor, so I feel pretty prepared:-)
Goodluck my friend i wish you the best.Hopefully el nino hangs around long enough to suppress activity during the 07 season.Keep in touch and let me know how everything turns out. Adrian
lol, you're right, WPB.

Thats EXACTLY why the call it that.
More like a 1-2 "poke" rather than a 1-2 "punch", 23.
lol

TD and a weak TS.
Good luck with school Nash and hope you feel better. I felt about a month ago there would be a couple developments in the SW Carib. Wrong.
Whats going on right now, just proves how much Accuweather sucks.

They were predicting a strike on New York, and a Florida slam in October. All in all, they were predicting the East Coast to get clobbered at one point this season.That forecast not looking so likely.

Way to go Accuweather!
Words of Wisdom:

Never listen to Accuweather. Just enjoy their pretty graphics.
Nash-
I know a good attorney....will help pay the school bills:) you have the worst luck.
114. SLU
Posted By: Ron5244 at 10:43 PM GMT on October 09, 2006.

Whats going on right now, just proves how much Accuweather sucks.

They were predicting a strike on New York, and a Florida slam in October. All in all, they were predicting the East Coast to get clobbered at one point this season.That forecast not looking so likely.

Way to go Accuweather!




The season doesn't climatologically end until November 30th. It can still happen.

Basically everyone got their forecast for this season wrong. From Bill Gray down to the worst wishcaster on this blog.
Posted By: Ron5244 at 6:40 PM EDT on October 09, 2006. (hide)
More like a 1-2 "poke" rather than a 1-2 "punch", 23.
lol.

Ron5244 BAJA has had to deal with a pretty active season in the eastern pacific this year and after going threw Hurricane John ealier this year in my opinion having an other Tropical system affecting this area with heavy rains could be bad for those folks.

Here is a visible pic of Hurricane John earlier this year...

Nash, just dont do ant tornado chaseing buddy would like to see you stay around. I do understand the crutch thing I am not shure which was worse the bruises from the crutches or what I was suppose to protect. Careful buddy
Just enjoy their pretty graphics.

too bad they weren't accurate, I would enjoy their graphics even more! so much for accuweather
Afternoon all
afternoon/evening sandcrab

Does any one know who is on MNF tonight??
05 Ravens and Broncos
ok thanks, Broncos home correct, looks like it should snow during halftime
The NOAA gen prob & shear maps haven't updated since 00Z. The 1st does 4 times a day. they take Columbus day off?
Sorry for disappearing for a while. Had to shower and rewrap my ankle. This is getting old, and because of my fall today, my ribs hurt. Damnit!!!!! 33yrs. old and I feel as though I am 85 yrs. old....

Ah well..... There is NO PAIN that will weaken my love for the tropics:-)
Nah Skye, they probably went home for the season:)
Good evening Bob.
Posted By: nash28 at 10:23 PM GMT on October 09, 2006.
Hey guys. Had kind of a bad day. Fell down a flight of stairs on my crutches when someone failed to clean up a cola spill on the stairs.


...Nash, get a "rabbit's foot"...lol, or only step in "diet" cola...jfk, bro. Get well soon, man!
Locals Mets Talikg about GOM frontalgenesis..Link
Thanks Moonlight!!! Yeah, should've demanded diet cola in the hospital. That's the only bright spot is that I work in a hospital, so the trip to the E.R. only took a few minutes:-)
..stay tuned...
Ok, well given my current condition, I need to lay down. Good thing the tropics are dead, otherwise my wife would have to staple gun my body to the bed to keep me away from the blogs all night long:)

Have a good night everyone, see you tomrrow morning....
Get nash a purple heart..for the effort.Rest ez
Thanks Patrap. I will. I keep thinking I will wake up in the morning and find an Invest to discuss to "brighten my mood", but it appears the shear gods are really pissed:-)
Posted By: Ron5244 at 6:38 PM GMT on October 09, 2006.
How forgettable.


So it would seem. Beryl, Chris, Debbie, and Ernesto are completely forgotten.
Yeah pretty much so:)
King Shear Ruled 06
Bob- mail
my local weather forecasting is underestimating the Artic Express:

(day durring/after the front moves thru my area)

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 87. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Northwest wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Posted By: Ron5244 at 10:46 PM GMT on October 09, 2006.
Words of Wisdom:

Never listen to Accuweather. Just enjoy their pretty graphics.

Good advice.
Well, actually the only Accuweather graphics I ever use are the radars. They are very nice. The rest, well ....
I really dont understand all this bashing with accuweather....Joe bastardi is very good at what he does and has incredible knowledge in weather.In fact i still remember joe b calling for developing el nino way before this season ever started and in fact look what took place it developed and it put clamp on this season creating unfavorable conditions all across the the atlantic basin threw out the season.No one in early may really took him serious when he said el nino was coming and i give him props for a great call.Over all in my opinion just because we had active seasons in 04 and 05 it does not mean every season will be very active in fact this season is a prime example that even if we are in a active period we can still have slow seasons in between.Its not how many hurricanes that form that matters its how many make landfall that has the greatest impact.We definately needed a break after all the destruction that has occured in the past 2 seasons,and in my opinion this is mother natures way of balancing things out. Adrian
i think if Joe Bastardi say the l nino he would of changed his forecast, he said for US landfalls:
Prediction-1 Tropical Storm
Actual-3 Tropical Storm
Prediction-5 Hurricanes (3 major)
Actual-0
Hot Spots for landfalls
South Texas-0
South Florida-1 (that's ok)
Outer Banks-1 (if you count Ernie)
Long Island/Mass.-1 (Beryl)
Alberto made landfall in a low risk area
I personally do not like AccuWeather, they have good graphics though, hurricanes are hard to predict, that I will say.


and here is his forecast for 2006
WPBHurricane05...LMAO!
That horrible New York hurricane Joe predicted....Beryl? LOL!
Yack on Dr. Gray...or the NHC. Long range forecasts are the game plan for setting commodities prices all over the world. Oil just happens to figure in there somewhere.
..Got gas..unleaded..for $1.99gal today..
2.19 on the coast
The chance was never there for any tropical system makeing it across the basin and impacting the U.S. as Persistant Trofiness of the eastcoast made every very difficult and was successful in keeping everything away.
Why didnt the great Joe B see that?? His forecast for a Hurricane to hit the Northeast was ridiculous! It was all for ratings.
Overall El nino will be around atleast threw the beginging of next year.
Persistent troffiness sounds like something the great Bastardi would say. Why didn't he see that?
Jack Frost acoming..
I don't know about predicting hurricanes but these were my football pool picks for this week. If Denver wins tonight I'll be perfect, not been done in three years in our pool. But please don't ask me about weather, I can't predict that,lol. By the way I picked against both my teams

jer NO STL NYG IND CHI CAR NE MIN SF JAC KC PHI SD DEN

JER
You guys stop bragging about that cheap gas....still 2.35 here.
Really Rand, we're down to 2.29 in IRC. come on up and get some lol
JER
They think we're rich down here Jer!
You are rich down there,lol
JER
temp Denver..37F..light rain
Dang Jer...don't tell everyone!
OK sorry Rand-Hey everyone they call it the Gold Coast of Florida cause of the poverty level down there.
JER
I live on the Treasure Coast....way north of the Gold Coast....Major difference...LOL!
Sorry Rand-me too but I'm still looking for the treasure. Do know someone that found a gold dubloon kicked up the day after Jeanne. They think it was on the beach buried for long time and uncovered by the storm-lucky guy
JER
Yep, that's the Treasure Coast.....if you can dig it up...it's a treasure...LOL!
So, who has a weather treasure tonight?
Most of the Carib looks clean tonight. That stuff in the West is still there and the Southern Bahamas is still cooking. What is that stuff at 20and 50?




That's too easy 03....it's always an ULL! Try a little harder.
Give us a real weatherguy synopsis.
I do..update on the twins.
10/0000 UTC 16.4N 118.0W T3.0/3.0 NORMAN
10/0000 UTC 13.5N 127.5W T2.0/3.0 16E

Ya'll livin in the past down there, looking for mithical treasures plundered long ago, little farther north we shoot for the stars on the space coast. Gas still costs alot though.
Well..... sure been a quiet time here in the carib....just hope it stays that way for a long while....
A few comments on latest posts. We are paying $.507/ltr for gas... thats $1.919 a gal. Although there are places higher at $.567/ltr ($2.146/gal)

As far as Accuweather is concerned... don't like their weather or their politics... Suspect they were behind the congressional bill to limit NWS from disseminating FREE weather information and requiring all to use commercial services....

From tropical Puerto Rico....
aboard S/v Don Quijote
no ull, tropical wave

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 49W-54W.
FORMOSA
Skye is right. She's on the Tech Coast. They're all smarter and richer than us down here!
Hence the gas price!
Hey SKYE! They say there is still bundles out there though, why don't you use some of that eye in sky high tech to find it for us, lol.
JER
Yeah Skye but Bob was right....it's getting sucked along by that really bad ULL to the west!
Its an ULL interacting with a tropical wave. Almost right Skye:)
Its 2006, if there is a tropical wave, then there will be an ULL near by. Cmon Skye!!..LOL
Ztapedoc~ suspect? you should have seen their letter during the comment time on that. They were angry because the proposed parteners policy still had that they would still be making forecasts & that they weren't providing pretty packages for accuweather to dissemenate. Accuweather was mad they still had to come up with their own graphics.
There has to be one nearby...LOL...there it is!
Naval Linkage.Link
You said 20N 50W...that fits right there in Formosa's coordinates for the wave just over an hour ago. You calling Formosa wrong? That ULL is N of 20 & nearly to 60W.
Of couse there is one near by but it's not centered at 20/50.
ULL interacting with a tropical wave. Don't worry it isn't gonna develop:)
Formosa is right about the position of the wave. Just no mention of the influence from that massive black hole to its West!
Saturday hint of Western GOM development along Front...Link
It's in the Atlantic section
A NARROW RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N57W.
Yeah, well it was a short discussion, probibly did it from home..like '03 claimed that's where they've all gone.
LOL...Pat!
Or could be due too 1900's complaint that MT's was so long.
Or could be due too 1900's complaint that MT's was so long.

LMAO!
..theres a lot of west in that lesson..LOL!
Fridays Video of N Shore Lake Ponchatrain Rand?
Ha Ha!!! I don't miss that Rand!!
Could be Pat!
The next cold front is really strong! On Friday, my town is supposed to have a high of a cold 65!
Posted By: Skyepony at 8:56 PM CDT on October 09, 2006.

Or could be due too 1900's complaint that MT's was so long.


MT's?
I'm glad to see that I am not that only one out there who suffers from the "Dr Suppresso Syndrome". I don't know how many times I have watched lines of strong thunderstorms coming straight for me and then either splitting and going around me only to reform a solid line once they were safely past or to just die out completely. I have had several people offer to hire me for parties and other outdoor events! I'm thinking about starting a support group for disappointed weather watchers like myself. Maybe Jack will be a charter member!
Blizzard of 93..a whopperLink
Yeah MT wrote the 2:05 discussion, it was posted & you responded "long post...". Well if you didn't get it probibly noone else did. Gotta run.
No doubt about that!

Link
Google to go ahead and Purchase YouTube for 1.6 billion..not bad for a company that has never turned a profit..and the only 65 employees-owners..will be staying on.
Hawaii may have trouble in a week or so:



Oh, that. Just suprised me. The blog was very inactive at the time, and then there was that post. It was informitive but long. My computer hasn't been handling long posts like that very well.
..LOL..Jeezus TAZ...that popped in and scared the crapola outta me!...LMAO!
Woa...
Iniki type scenario for Hawaii..hopefully Not.
Very interesting MichealSTL...all we can do, though, is wait and watch how this plays out.

GFDL
Hawaiis last big Hurricane..Link
Hurricane Inikis path in 92Link
LMAO Taz.....Too funny.
Randrewl yes whats go with that
: Patrap lol
I think that it is a picture of a troll. LOL!
Taz...you know who is going to yell at you now.
Atlantic Shear Trolls in Rare pic at Bermuda conference..Link
: Gatorx no oh?
Hey Gator, How's it going?
you guys are VERY strange. weird even................
Heck yeah Pottery...you know I'm weird!
The rest of them know it also...just they don't broadcast it!
Very Enlightening..LOL!
drewl, thank goodness for that, whew,,,,,,,,,,,
I'm really tired of weird...can I be "Special" now? Please?
dont get me wrong, I dig weird AND strange. Otherwise I would of left here long time...........
What's up over there Pottery?
How's your weather?
Goodnight all you weather and joke and picture and physics question lovers...see ya tomorrow
Nite Gatorx..tucks...
drewl, all is well and the weather too. threatened to pour down but didnt. where are you anyway......as for being special, you just have to feel it
It's a book answer...should have known coming from a Gator fan!
I am special and in Stuart Florida. You are in Barbados?
But still weird I am.
gatorx, I saw the movie too. Sometimes its like that...........
Trinidad, the weirdest of all. Went to school in Barbados though. Never been to Stuart, but have an ex-sisterinlaw runs a restaurant there
Trinidad...Barbados...they all look alike to a mainlander! Just happy you have not had hard times this season.
Go to bed Gator!
Nah,there not alike at all. B"dos is Caribbean, T"dad is like the spanish main in all kinds of ways. They get h"canes from time to time, we get to have the ITCZ. Hot and moist.......
I hear the "hot and wet" part.....that's what I live with all the time!
Realy??? all the time? I thought you had raging fires there sometimes...........
Fires? There's nothing left to burn with all the development. Yes, we are still behind on rainfall though. Just this constant humidity!
Drive you nuts!
Sounds dread to me. Spent the w?e in the rainforest, not a development for miles. I recomend it for sanity sake . A beach works good too.
Carribean Beach..Sunset..Link
I didnt get it patrap
You can't get near a beach here anymore. Too many new residents doing all that.
Everybody near a beach can understand that. I got lucky...(or cursed)...I was born here.
OK, that one I got....the sunrise.
Burning Development..Link
Admin pulled the Nova & Kittens pics cause they werent outdoor focused..LOL
after 6 days..too
Cant get to a beach.??? Dreader and dreader. In B'dos some years ago the Gov. had to buy beach properties so that they could buldoze them so that the people could see the sea again, and get to it. Here in Trin. you own beachfront property down to the HIGHWATER MARK. So at low tide the developer cant tell me to get off his beach at all........
Yeah, we have all those restrictions and more. Just you don't want to go there any longer for all the dang tourists!
They own the beach!
I go out West to New Mexico to the mountains to unwind.
How am I going to get my ladder on that plane....let alone my truck and casa
supp p-trap
LMAO Rick!
supp rand
kinda snickered too...lmao
Watching football and having a few....what's up with you?
sorry hun.....hate to be away from home really wish you come visit...but it's so expensive to fly nowdays....hehehehehe
bud light...living the dream
Burning to develop?????? Thats real BAD karma patrap
where ya at pat.....had to bail on ya this weekend..sry...was looking forward to it
Drewl, Loved new mexico . visited all the pueblo potters we could. Arizona too. Could not get over the quality of the light. Great........
jjjeessshhhhhh...night krew a little slow tonight rand?
where you from pottery
Pottery....I have crawled all over the area. I truly love it there.
Rick, Trinidad. But we been through all that earlier while you was asleep.............
rand...where you from?
eemmmm sry pottery...... may have been working..just a thought
Have a sister in Tuscon with a husband and a mobile home thing. I want to come back but cant take the crap at the airport . Finger prints, interogation, the works, Its definitely not nice......When those guys cool off a bit.
so ...rand ...ever been up to Utha..... thats a cool place...zion....
oops...edit
Sorry Rick. Did not mean to sound uptight. Yeh, in Trinidad, enjoying the humidity and the mildew that goes along with that. Where are you then??
I can't stand commercial flying either Pottery.
I have ways around that but that's another subject.
NOLA
No, Rick...I never made it much to Utah. I have been in the lake though!
BOUT 5 MILES FROM PATRAP NEAR AS I CAN FIGURE
LMAO...GO IF YOU GET A CHANCE....IT TAKES YOUR BREATH AWAY
ASTRAL TRAVEL????????????? Weirder . Tell us more>( interspersed with weather related anecdotes,for good form)
THE SUN ( WEATHER RELATED) TURNS THE CLIFFS ALL DIFFERENT COLORS.... HUGH ROCK OUTCROPPINGS.... DRIVE THROUGH ROCK FACES...RIVERS BELOW...FAR FAR BELOW. KINDA LIKE AN UPSIDE DOWN CAVE.... CARVED BY WATER ( SEMI WEATHER RELATED).. BEAUTIFUL PLACE
ZION NAT'L PARK AND BRYCE CANYON
Patrap is in Utah?? I just assumed he was a more tropical entity. Just goes to show something or other..........
WELL IF PATRAP IS IN UTAH..THAT EXPAINES WHY HE HASN'T ANSWERED.....LOL..HE'S IN N.O. LA...AS AM I
RAND...NEED SOME HELP HERE
Pat is in NOLA!
OK OK I see it now. You are recommending Utah. Sounds nice too. Maybe Im getting slow here due to the hour.
LOOKS LIKE IT'S WINDING DOWN POTTERY...GUESS I'LL GET SOME WORK DONE AND HIT IT TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY...DAMN I MISS THOSE LITTLE BUD LIGHT FROGS
Pottery ....you're way ahead of us. In time and weather.
ROUND FOR THE HOUSE.....SEE YA LATER
NITERS RAND
Drewl, the ASTRAL TRAVEL ?????????? Come back
Please don't drink, blog and drive Rick!
Astral travel....I don't know about that. I just have pilot friends if I want to fly somewhere!
CAN I DRINK AND BLOG IF I DON'T DRIVE.....TRY TO CHECK THE TYPING..PROMISE...ROTFLMAO
DAMN CAPS ARE STUCK...SRY
LITTLE SPEW IN THE KEYBOARD WOULD BE MY GUESS
Ah. Shuks. Thought I was on to something there. Just as well. Its too late . Talk to you again. Peace.............
...shoot, somebody post a weather picture - rain, or a swirly...lol, or just shout WEST.
...what? no LB's or Hinky's? ...even a good gale?
WEST...... OR...IF YOU WANT TO GO TO THE ISLANDS.....NORTH EAST
What we need is a Western Hinky!
I'LL TAKE A SOUTHERN HICKY
I GOT TO GET BACK TO WORK..LOL
Sorry...no squiggly lines!




97C BABYYYYYYYYYYY...LOAD THAT 350 AND MY CASA
OH THAT WAS UGLY.......
...lol, thanks Rick for the W E S T and Rand for the pic, heck it doesn't even look like there's a good shower in the GOM...we must be going to have an ice storm or something this year...it's just been too strange.
Nothing....stone Dead!
...well, if it's gonna be cold, then the big fellow is most likely going to be around...this picture was taken near Memphis in January just shortly after the last storm, Zeta came through the first part of this year.

Blank

...feet don't smell that bad in the snow and ice...but I think it helps it melt faster.
Smell versus bigfoot again? What else?
...lol, Rand, did you see the "Tequila Sheila" post last nite? I guess I need to find the right blog, just trying to keep things light when big feet are so heavy and smelly.
LMAO...I saw the Sheila post this morning! Too much!
...I think I'll fix up a good one and post it tomorrow nite...lol
Whatever....it's stone cold dead out there tonight....and I'm gone. See ya!
...later Rand, have a good sleep. Me, too.
Good Morning Weather Lovers...
question deleted
333. IADCW
Posted By: Gatorx at 11:07 AM GMT on October 10, 2006.

When the mineral spirits is poured slowly onto the top of the water, it will remain on top because the two fluids are immiscible

Mix in a little soap and make them miscible, THEN what happens to your ball ??
The CONUS in IR..Link
Its a b c....not debatable...lol
GOM..in wv..Link
Good morning Gator....

Mail.
Correct as usual Nash.
Global 8 frame this am...Link
That one made me sweat a bit Gator:-)
PacificLink view with Tropical Storm..
However sweating does happen due to high humidity in the air...weather related I suppose...whew that one made me sweat too!
Suggest shower..LOL
LOL Gator!!!!

Way to turn it into a "weather related" event:-)
Good idea Pat....or else stand out in the rain.....I wish I had some rain...dry as bone here for over two weeks.
Pat...do you want to give my question a try...just email me your guess. I heard you studied!
..am not the physics type..but will give the problem some am brain study..
Surface tension & viscosity..a delemma..
Good morning all
Will mix some JAck & Seven..and toss in Golf ball...will observe till finished ..LOL
Morning Crab.
Nash, hows tha ribs? Patrap, Ya might grt some rain on tha tin roof today I see.
Sandcrab...
Please see my 7:00 am post and make a stab at the question. oh yea....Good Morning!
Ribs are sore. I feel like Rocky Balboa after blocking punches with his ribs:-)
Good mornin Gator
Floating ball, mineral spirits = sticky ball.lol
Morning humor...I like that!
Pat...golf ball won't work.... while you watch for the rain on your tin roof today....weather weather weather
One of the strange tings that was found after Katrina here was hundreds of black rubber balls. As inquireing minds often drive ambition reasearch found that the pile of crushed concrete from our old grain elevator had these balls in it to help in the solidtation of the concrete when it was poured due to the Monolithic pour of its nature.
Wheres my mittens?..the FRONT,,is Coming..The Front is Coming!...
Wow...I wonder if anyone else noticed that...I know after our two hurricanes the year before, we found all kinds of stuff that we never knew about.....thats the weather stuff for ya.
..Get the salt ready sandcrab...LOL
Mittens naw Mescal yes.
I noticed that Dr. Beven in Dr. Masters blog has his degree in Physics...I wonder if most meteorologist have that as an undergrad degree...for those of you that think physics is not weather related perhaps you would care to read Dr. Masters above post.
This is for Sandcrab...from the Dome crew..Link
Gotcha Pat. I talked to my friend yesterday he is suppose to get the disk to me so I can copy the other photos for us.
Physics is essential for this field.
Winning..the BEST medicine for what ails us all.....
Thank you Nash....my point exactly.
Ok well I suppose I need to get some work done will sneak back later. All have a good morning.
Have a great day Crab:-)
This morningLinks notes ...
Fermi Labs...Quark lines..Link
Bye...Sandcrab
My Physics Prof...Link
mornin everybody! :)

"Posted By: Randrewl
Sorry...no squiggly lines!"

And believe me.... been staring REAL hard!!! LOL

Blob watchin just doesn't seem nearly as fun in the fall as vs. early summer.....

oh well, as the seasons change, so do the days of our lives! :)
Its been a long time Gatorx, but I will give you an answer after coffee..LOL Yes, for an undergraduate degree in Meteorology you have to take two semesters of Physics.
They do accept an overnight stay at Holiday Inn Express in leu of the Physics minor.
Tornado watch boxes now in Central Texas...
Ricderr....correct answer and very great explanation.
Physics - no one told me I had to know physics! I learned just enough to get me through my dive training and still utilize that but I resent that even that is referred to as physics since the very word intimidates me. That means math and I suck at math! I thought I could just look at radars and know that when my bones were hurting something was going to happen. You guys have taken all the fun out of weather with your physics! I am sooo upset!
OK gotto go to work now the correct answer is...

The answer is (b); the ball will float higher out of the water after the mineral spirits is poured onto the water.
The ball floats at a higher level because the mineral spirits in which the upper part of the ball is floating provide an additional buoyant force on the ball. If the ball is floating on water alone, the top part of the ball is immersed in air, which has a much smaller density.

Thanks to all who participated...
Nash and Ricderr and cbbeachbum got the correct answers...smarty pants.
My pants thank you Gator. :-)
no no no
Awww, c'mon you can go there:-)
No No No...weather weather weather...I will stick to weather.
I will stick to pants....
.while watching the tropics...ULL...blobs ...highs..lows.
There ya go Gator:-)
Uhh.. old blog :D