WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Dr. Bill Gray's final 2006 forecast issued

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:33 PM GMT on October 04, 2006

The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The computer models are indicating some development is possible early next week in the region between the Bahamas and Bermuda, but this is likely to be extratropical in nature.

Latest hurricane forecast by Dr. Bill Gray
The final 2006 seasonal forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season by the Colorado State University team led by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach was issued yesterday. The new forecast calls for two named storms in October, one of which is a hurricane, which is not expected to be intense. Gray's team forecasts no named storms for November, noting that November tropical cyclones are rare in the Atlantic during El Nio events. The average level of October activity is 1.6 named storms and 1.1 hurricanes. These averages decline by about 1/3 in El Nio years, to 1.3 named storms and 0.7 hurricanes. No intense (or major) hurricanes have been observed to form after 1 October in El Nio years since 1950. Dr Gray's team gives the following odds for landfalls along the U.S. coast in October 2006:

Named storm: 22%
Hurricane: 14%
Intense hurricane: 4%

The average probabilities of landfalling October tropical cyclones in the U.S. the past 52 years looked like this:

Named storm: 29%
Hurricane: 15%
Intense hurricane: 6%

The authors note that the failure of the El Nio prediction models to properly forecast the rapidly developing El Nio event this year was a major reason why their earlier hurricane forecasts were inaccurate. August-September 2006 sea surface temperatures in Equatorial Eastern Pacific warmed by approximately 0.6C from their June-July values, which is the greatest increase ever observed in a year that wasn't already seeing an El Nio event (the increase was 0.9C during strongest El Nio on record, in 1997; however, 1997 was already a strong El Nio event by the beginning of the summer).

I posted my October hurricane outlook yesterday, which calls for just one named storm for the Atlantic the remainder of hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M. This is good news for citizens, maybe bad news for weather-people, but not really because now you guys have something else to study - WHY the year was so calm and what the results of that calmness will be.
Thanks Dr. Masters
OK....Now that Dr. Gray has put out his forecast........We can now expect a Cat 3 Hurricane to form in the Gulf of Mexico and hit the U.S.......It seems when he predicts something the opposite happens......Time will tell.....
All of that high elevation has Dr. Gray in shambles.
does anyone have the link to the most recent gfs run that is the most thunderstorm activity i have seen in the gulf this whole season
Thanks Dr. Masters. El Nino wins again! This season is over!!
The slow season was a blessing.

I am excited to experience my first Floridian winter- whereas normally I would have to 'warm-up' my car for 30 minutes before it would drive, while I was shoveling the snow behind it so I could get out of the diveway- now I am going to be enjoying the sunshine and the beach!

The cutoff low is kinda interesting in that GFS.
That Cut Off low will bring us some much cooler temps here in North Florida this weekend. I can't wait!! May not reach 80 here this weekend. Unfortunately, it will bring us dry weather:(
That is all you need up there is more dry weather 03. Cooler temps will be nice though. I wonder if it is supposed to make it down south here in my area, I haven't seen, have you?
That is all you need is more dry weather 03. I haven't seen if the cooler temps are to make it down south in my area, have you?

Utah, wait till Christmas when you can call all your relatives from the beach, "So, how is your weather up there, lol". Welcome, you'll love the winter here!
Lagging post lol sorry!
BLOB ALERT!! BLOB ALERT!!!

Blob spotted off the Bahamas. If I stare at it long enough, it looks like it has some rotation. It also starts to form a picture of Jay Leno's profile as well!!

Looks like the upper level winds are blowing the tops off and giving Jay a bad hair day.

I'm so glad the season is slow...
Pulse. The cooler temps will not make it that far south. You will stay in the Upper 80's all weekend.
NHC indicated in thier dicussion that the convection is attributed to upper level features.

NHC
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE IS
ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE.
Thanks Bob! Oh well, looks like we'll have to wait a bit! Humidity has dropped a bit down here, evenings are great!
..GOM ..infrared loop..Link
I have a scientific question - I KNOW - everyone pick yerself back up off the floor from nearly fainting or laughing so hard...but here goes.

I have read and believe (because scientists are smarter than me) that hurricanes are nature's way of cleaning up, and re-stabilizing our atmospheres or something along those lines. So, I can only assume that all the storms last year did such a good job that our atmospheres are o.k. for this year - except for the Pacific which really got a cleaning up this year.

But, what are the impacts of not have a storm in the gulf? I mean really - they do stuff that probably needs to be done to some extent. So this year, the waters are still really warm since a storm hasn't served to cool them down and the coasts are quiet.

My own theory is that this year is going to be misleading for years to come - I know all about the Nino/Nina stuff (well sort of), but discounting for that, isn't it a given that the cycle will shift the other way when nature sees the need (i.e. things haven't been cleaned out for a while).
That is great news I have sent this put to all my friends I also sent it to my insurance company.=) With good news like this I think it calls for a rate reduction!!!!!!
saddle, that is a mouthful, and is what i have been wondering, too, since i saw those items about hurricanes being nature's nesting function jo
Saddle-

Everyone with a beloved pet needs to read your blog today and comment. Good theory on the hurricanes. You have mail.

They should all read ricderrs blog today too.
What a horrible year for forecasting....long range that is ....this was probably the worst job anyone has ever done...
It's a joke if you look at the forecast that was put out earlier this year ..WOW what a screw-up...

they'd be better off not saying anything
let nature do it's thing and when astorm develops then'll we'll track it ...and not try to predict what it will do 5 days down the road
mike - you take all the fun out of the blog. If you can't westcast a storm from its inception, you just aren't having fun!

Nature is going to do its thang whether we like it or not - last year and the year before I HATED it...this year, my trees are dried out, I have no grass and I have not been able to walk to my car without breaking into a sweat from the humidity, but compared to the last two years, I have been quite happy - except for the no rain part.
25. IKE
Posted By: miken62 at 9:35 AM CDT on October 04, 2006.

What a horrible year for forecasting....long range that is ....this was probably the worst job anyone has ever done...


It was awful and now Dr. Gray comes out with an adjusted forecast for the rest of the season. Kind of an afterthought isn't it, Dr. Gray?

This season was boring and much needed.
Saddle...your thoughts are not that off the wall. Nature is constantly trying to reach a state of stability. In chemistry and physics it is called "steady state", in biology and medicine, it's called "homeostasis", but the goal is still the same. Sure, hurricanes could be meterology's equivalent of clotting factors in medicine, or double-bonds in chemistry.
27. IKE
And they would be better off not saying anything, because...does anyone believe it?
Saddle- you have an excellent way with words (in this blog and your personal blog). Kudos!
The lack of tropical activity can't be good either especially in Florida. We are bone dry here and we are about to enter the dry season although it seems like all year we have been dry...I am really concerned about the fire season here this years was very bad since there was a fire 6 miles from me...next year's could be even worse since we had so little rain in FL...I hope some how tropica moisture can make it here.
Link
you guys think we get any rain here in LA out of the monster blob down there, it is drrrryyy cough, coughing up dust
daca - thanks for the comment - puts a more scientific perspective on it. "clotting factors" - I like thinking of them in that manner.
There is another , and perhaps more significant issue to forecasting ,that bothers me.

When the last update from Dr Gray's team came out the price of oil went down as I recall. This was in response to a lowering of the perceived threat to the GOM oil rigs and the risk of supply shortages.

The question this begs is to what extent , if any , did earlier forecasts from Gray and others of another above average year of activity impact the price of oil to the upside ??

Given that markets clearly pay attention to these forecasts perhaps the time has come to rethink whether they should be given out in the way that they are.

wouldn't a hurricane be the opposite of the clotting factor, moving heat to the poles when there is too much, there in, bringing the global temp closer to equilibrium?
Hi everyone - I have been following this blog for several weeks and really enjoy reading everone's comments... Saddlegait has an interesting point regarding nature cleaning things up with hurricanes.

While I am not a professional it has been my observation over the years that weather is caused by reactions to certain events - an example would be high sea temps usually produce more evaporation which in turn usually results in more clouds .. which results in rain/thunderstorms and if conditions are just right the storms result in hurricanes... etc. So in many ways it could be viewed that nature is cleaning up excess heat in the oceans through hurricanes but equally important is the fact that the heat is transfered from the equator to the northern latitudes thus making the perfect cycle example of the theory that for every action there is a reaction.

I have also noticed that nature tends to balance things out ... meaning when I lived up north if it got cold too early in the season most people thought that we were in for a rough winter but usually the opposite happened ... early on if it was cold when it should be warm nature made it warm when it should be cold later in the season. Same for rain/snow events ... if it was dry when it should be wet later on it was usually wet when it should be dry.

From all of this I throw out a question in line with Saddlegait's .... could all the hurricanes last year have resulted in heat transfer to the poles or Europe which in turn resulted in a move in the jet stream or a move in where Highs or lows usually sit/form which in turn has effected this years season both in the Atlantic and Pacific... if yes then is saddlegait correct and now that we have warmer water temps in the Gulf does that mean stronger winter storms for Florida's West Coast or even worse rain/snow events up north.
I think there is alot of energy in the oceans just waiting to get out ( or cleansed per saddlegait's theory)
We can kick the similarities and differences between hurricanes and clotting factors around all day long...but the result is all the same, nature trying to get back to a state where the least amount of energy is expended to exist. There might be a burst of energy in the short term, but over time, the energy equation starts to approach zero (there...I threw something in there for you mathematicians too).

Geez...I feel like I'm back in college again and should be smoking something other than a Marlboro!
The price of oil has come down because there is an election in about a month:)
During the Spring there were some hints that El Nino would begin later this summer, but it was thought at that time it would be slow to occur and would not affect this season. Thats why long range forecasts are very hard to make.
....welcome back "troublemaker"...lol, jfk.

ALL, have a good day.
An example of Sadies comment would be the massive wildfires out west. The forests needed to be cleaned up and thus there are massive fires. The Earth is designed for self maintenance.
weatherguy03

That may be true but there were a number of business news articles that specifically referred to the price of oil being down in the days immediately following the release of the downward revisions to the forecasts. These articles made express reference to traders responding to those forecasts.

All I am saying is that the forecasts seem to be yet another "excuse" to manipulate the price of oil.
MTJax - I believe that as well - we can't beat Mother Nature because Mother Nature is constantly working to overcome our damage and just keep things like they should be. I hate to see the death and destruction that results but we can't beat it. It isn't always our fault, just the cycles that have to be accomplished to keep the place liveable.
gulf

you are too much man !
LOL
So... following daca's and MT's line of thinking - IF we could figure out what parts of our earth are "unstable" or "out of balance", we would be getting ahead of the game in guessing what MIGHT be going to happen in the near and or distant future. Nature is constantly working to balance and keep the equilibrium. So, we have to think "globally" and not just about our own little corners of the world to be able to anticipate.
Gulf...you are probably going to be banned for that picture....but before Dr Master's bans you....he is going to chuckle.
I was referring to the price of oil falling drastically the last month.
O.K. - to follow Weatherguy's postings - when Katrina was FORECASTED to hit - not when it hit - but FORECASTED to hit - our local stations raised the price of gas $.30 in one days' time and it steadily increased after that - they had a field day - and that was before the strike. The rest is history.
Hurricane cross section view..Link
Yea the gas thing is one big right wing conspiracy.....I mean ummm......the 2007 hurricane season will be as slow or slower than last year. ummm 03 try to stay on weather topic.....I got yelled at yesterday.lol
welcome back PATRAP is 27windows back too??
The 24 hour surface forecast is showing total high pressure domination

24 hour surface forecast
..shes around i believe...
But the 72 hour forecast is showing an interesting setup East of Florida. A stalled front and a pocket in the pressures.

72 hour forecast
I didn't say that it was a right wing conspiracy Gatorx, you did:) You can draw your own conclusions:)
my local forecaster hints of the Carolina low developing then kicking out...Link
The oil companies control us, not what goes on in Iraq. And the President is controlled by the oil companies, its a vicious circle.
..more signs of fall...coming in to focus..
Again Gatorx I dont control what other people do or think here at WU. They are there own persons.
Oil & weather a marriage..From the GOM to the North Sea..to the straits of Hormuz..SHell alone Spend millions on forecasting...
03-
I got it loud and clear.......it was just a joke. really
seems to me that a discussion on how forecasting affects the price of oil IS weather talk but I didn't mean to start a topic that might gets us ALL banned !

Ah well, back to maps, blobs etc etc
this hurrricane seasonal is done for the year
Basically...weather controls everything when you think about it....thats why I have taken liberties with this blog...however...I am now a born-again blogger....reformed and will stay on strictly weather topics forever...or until I mess up.
Here is how its gonna go. Oil will drop until after the elections. Then slowly creep up this winter. Then as Spring approaches they will sock it to us again, because of there BS demand excuses.
GOM..visible loop...Link
Taz - so...if hurricane season is done - and I'm not trying to be a smarta....!, what do you see happening next year - I know we can't predict it completely, but do you expect the Pacific to be calm since it got blasted this year and all resorted and do you expect the Atlantic and gulf to wake up. It seems like there are cycles...I am not able to stay with detail enough to review it all, but if you looked at all the years of recorded hurricanes would you actually see a pattern of x number of hurricanes every so many years and more every so many years. If you charted it (which I am sure someone has) are there visible trends and how does this year fit and NEXT YEAR fit - is it truly cyclical because if it is, charts should show that.
OK getting ready to sin already.....03...the demand is in early summer and winter...that is the cycle.....extreme cold and extreme heat...
here is one last stab at the oil and forecasting issue. Take a read of this article on yahoo today

Link
Good article....I had already read that. Thanks
Yes Gatorx, it will rise alittle after the elections(winter), then go up in the Spring as we approach summer.
What about the all of the other winters when it goes up every year and there is no election?
Great Hurricane Hunters LinkPoster..with info..click to enlarge
Wow, look at that we have an abundance of supplies!! Its so funny how the oil companies dictate this. It has nothing to do with the Hurricane season. Oh well, I am done. Just my two cents on the oil thing today.
Gatorx, how does it suddenly drop so low the last month?
Supply up...demand the same...Dow hit new high yesterday...first in 6 years...
Supplies are always up after summer because the demand drops...been that way for 75 years.....I think we agree on alot of things 03 and our government has a lot to answer for but this government oil companies conspiracy is just like the WUBA wants to take over the this WU blog conspiracy. Just aint so my friend...just my two cents....have a great day.
Good corn season in the midwest..=.. Low cornflake prices ..and lower ethanol..same..thing..
Hurricane image of long agoLink
Is he hangin on to that tree or holdin it up?
Max Mayfield catching some R& R...Link
..must be Jim Cantores..relation..
saddlegait thats a vary good ? but if we are going to see a El Nio for we can say goood bye for 2007 hurricane year as well
I think the first el nino I remember was not that many years ago. At that time, I remember being told it was on 15 year cycles or something and it has proven not to be. I also recall people saying it would be slow to come but it is here. So, will it be slow to stay or move on out of here. I apologize for the confusion but am trying to grasp all the variables which I know is impossible to grasp. It just seems like forecasting is science combined with knowledge of cycles combined with an ability to put yourself out there. I know everyone knocks Dr. Gray, but he has guts to even stand up and PREDICT anything knowing all the variables are subject to change such as el nino sneaking in so quickly.
I believe that Bush and Cheney must have bought real estate on the GOM or east coast. They are using their powerful influences in weather alteration techniques to heat up the Pacific, thus, allowing them to finish their remodeling efforts for the year.

They both have made millions or billions of dollars with their oil activities, but doubling their real estate profit makes them feel better.

They will bring the La Nina back in two years after they have sold their properties, thus trying to capitalize on the new devastation caused by the canes, which will keep their dreams alive for the future.

I know, cause I know I know.
FYI...another reason gas prices go up in the spring is due to the refineries undergoing "turn-around" which is their term for scheduled maintenance. It's not a conspiracy thing...on local stations around here in SE Louisiana, you can hear the commercials on local radio and TV stations from the private contract companies that perform turn-around services ramp up in the spring time and then die off around June. The beginning of Spring is actually the slowest time for refineries because heating oil demand is starting to go down, and gasoline demand has not started to go up, so this is the best time for them to do maintenance. Like Pat said, with very little refining buffer in the US, whenever a unit goes down, it affects inventory. If the summer demand for gas starts earlier than expected, and the refineries are still turning-over, then that's when prices really start going up.

To say I stayed on weather...I thought my blob alert earlier was in jest, but that system off the Bahamas might actually be something??
its hot here- so i get my weather in great post saddle.i have Cooie and Sissy (cats). Cooie is 15 yrs old and i know sometime in near future will have to face losing her. Sissy is only 1, and i brought home to her a little brother 2 mo ago. Sammy and her are having a ball. good luck Ric. we have Rex (dog) too. lol.. he belongs to hubby
Seems as if we have very extremely, high IQ's around the WU. With this in mind, one of the leaders of the pack Dr. Masters; well, I noted him saying that the AUTHORS (who hold degrees of all facets with weather) BLAMED once again comp. models with the wrong doing of the forecasts THEY had predicted. It just seems to me, IMO that maybe the computers think to much, like humans. Which, when it comes to weather, that we need a real Bill (the EXTREME) to take part in WU; for w/out someone to have the power to know what a storm is THINKING; be it tropical or Nado, we are as reliable in EDUCATED guesses as the comp. models we made up! Tis is a sad story, so was the 2005 hurricanes AND PREDICTIONS! For, who saw that come to take everything away!
Moral:
Never rely on comp. models! We blame them and V/v
Once again no stepping on toes just m/o
p.s. Anyone seen any snow lately?
Ok comp. models don't blame us back! I got that! They would if they could; and I really meant what I said about the weather IQ s thing for, some of yous SHOULD be working for them
God bless ya's
Snow and I go hand in hand
Sweet, Ga. could always use some of that! TY
Good morning,

The bahamas area seems interesting this morning as there seems to be a weak circulation trying to to develope along the lines of 26N and 72-73 west.At the present time development if any would have to be slow as right now there is 30-40kts of shear blowing across the area.For the next 24-48 hours iam not expecting much developement as upper-level winds just dont favor it. Adrian
Hey stormw!
Interesting tidbit from Wilmington WFO...

VERY DYNAMIC AND INTERESTING PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR THE
WEEKEND FORECAST. THE GFS HAS FOR SEVERAL RUNS DEVELOPED A VERY
UNCLIMATOLOGICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...PUSHING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO AS LOW AS -20 C OVER THE WILMINGTON AREA
ACCORDING TO THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS. LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BECOME QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM REGION WHERE MODEL CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG
DEVELOP.

THIS PATTERN...SHOULD IT DEVELOP...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE EFFECTS THE MODELS ARE UNABLE TO
PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN CONVECTIVE
BANDS MOVING ONSHORE OR ALONG ANY DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE LANDMASS. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT IN
SOUTHEAST NC FALLING BACK TO 20 PERCENT WEST OF FLORENCE. THESE
NUMBERS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS
CONTINUE.

EVERYTHING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
Interesting topics flying around here today...

Saddlegait, I was thinking the same thing last week about no canes on the area could leave things a little warmer...I had noticed the el nino winter forecasts. Normally we'd expect wet & cold in the southeast, with increased storminess. NWS FL el nino effects forecast is all there, but has backed off on the cold. Know though, that all the shear the GOM has had helps cool the SSTs there as well. It seems to me like the troughs with all the shear that has been dipping in there has been literally funneling the energy across the mid west. They've just figured out too that El Nino events vent a huge amount of heat from the ocean. So the gulf isn't absolutely untaped with no canes.

Saw something interesting the other day as some of these heat laden storms especally those that were over water for a while, making big waves...the wave energy gets directed through the land to the poles, if directed right, sets off the earthquake stuff they've been planting on glaciers as they crumble from the vibration.

Oil prices are effected by a number of factors, hurricanes being one of them. I've dabbled in agriculture & it's like playing futures on corn. If you see a drought coming ya buy low to sell high, to off set the loss you expect on your corn crop. The earlier off you see the drought coming the lower you usually get to buy & the better off you are.
Iam not sure if anyone brought this up on the blog earlier this morning but the GFS continues to persists on development in the western caribbean.This is extremely long-range and should be taken with huge caution.

Here is a pic of the 12z GFS @ 384hrs.



CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE 12z GFS LOOP
if something did form rom the bahamms blob where will it head thanks

the long range gfs is showing somthing pretty strong on oct 19 by n of cuba anyone see this ?
109. srada
Hi, (wilmington here)
VERY DYNAMIC AND INTERESTING PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR THE
WEEKEND FORECAST. THE GFS HAS FOR SEVERAL RUNS DEVELOPED A VERY
UNCLIMATOLOGICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SATURDAY....


Are they forecasting something tropical this weekend?
384 hours...16 days, a little more than a fortnight.
(Here is somewhat of a breakdown of the 12z GFS.)
CLICK ON THUMBNAILS

276HRS GFS

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

288HRS GFS

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

300HRS GFS

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

312HRS GFS

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

360HRS GFS

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
UPPER LEVEL LOW

Upper Level Lows (ULL) are non tropical
That GFS forecast is very sketchy at best. It also shows the Low being somewhat weak. Wouldn't worry too much about it.
That low off the coast of the Carolinas will be non-tropical. Interesting thought about the moisture feeding into the system StormW.
ULL's are non-tropical in nature thats correct but sometimes they can work themselves down to the surface with time.Dont see it happeing but just thought i'd bring that up.

Iam more concerned with the GFS its been pretty peresistant for about 2 days now on developing a tropical system in the western caribbean.Lets see what the 18z looks like when it comes out.In my honest opinion the reason iam more concerned is because the MJO pulse will be moving in the GOM and the caribbean sometime next week and that should provide upward motion to get something going.Lets wait and see how all this plays out in the coming days. Adrian
ULL's become tropical about 1% of the time. Not even worth mentioning. Will be interesting to see the evolution of that Low off the Carolina Coast this weekend. Fall is here!!
Looking at the most recent major models... The GFS & Nogaps call for the Bahama blob tot go NE out to sea. The NOGAP develops it more. Both also form an ULL on the east end of the Carolinas. In the GFS that ULL shreads the Bahama blob. Ukmet has a slighly different take on it, ULL sucks in the bahama blob.
Actually almost a winter-like system.
Here is the short version..LOL Graduated college and worked for a Wind Data firm for about a year. Decided to move to Florida because had enough of the NE. Came into some money and opened a Restaurant. Did they for a number of years, which kept me away from the weather. Sold the Rest, and decided to get into Optical because it was good money and had some friends in it. Then out of nowhere an Opprotunity came around to work for Fox News doing weather and I took it. Did that for a few years until they sold the company. Now I am back in Optical. So the short story is no real reason..LOL If I want to get back into meteorology I would have to move and can't right now because my wife's job is incredible and lets me play:) Maybe oneday I will get back into it. Sorry to bore everyone!..LOL
now what is that off the FL cost
lol
Here is a IR Loop of the Bahamas...


HOw about a halloween hurricane!
127. srada
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 6:09 PM GMT on October 04, 2006.

Actually almost a winter-like system.


A noreastern? if so, for whom?
Actually, looking at the latest GFS some of that moisture does get pulled into that low. Could be some big convergence bands along the North Carolina coast this weekend. Really depends on the exact track of that low. If it forms to far off the coast then NC/SC will be on the dry side of the system.
ULL's are non-tropical in nature thats correct but sometimes they can work themselves down to the surface with time.Dont see it happeing but just thought i'd bring that up.

yes, didnt feel like talking about the surface part
Guys i wouldn't be surprised to see 1-2 systems forming close to home in october.I think the MJO Pulse will get something going in the next week or two.Remember the MJO Phase brings more favorable conditions with it.
is it just me or is the italics button not working
looking at the southern part of the bahamma blob i see the top northern part going ne. but the southern part can go it a differnt direction. ifit splits .thanks
i know how to start it off, but how do you end it?
WPBHurricane05, to use the italics button, highlight the text that you want to italicize and then click the button; if you don't select text, it just inserts the code wherever the cursor is located (Bold and Link work the same way, with the selected text becoming part of a link for the Link button, which otherwise uses the word Link).
I know how to put it into italics but it wont work
testing italics
the begining code is without the +'s, but whats the end?
140. 882MB
Hey how are all ya doing?Hurricane23, the GFS is still being consistent in developing something in the carribean, also i was looking at a loop and there seems to be a low pressure forming near the northwestern bahamas
141. 882MB
The tropics are becoming active again
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 2:34 PM EDT on October 04, 2006.

I know how to put it into italics but it wont work


I mean when I press the button it wont work
143. 882MB
Well i have to go be back at around 6 or 7PM EST.
Italics code:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/update.htm

THE REALITY OF EL NINO SEASONS.

(Link option currently not working for me)
Thank You STL
Ron, having the smae problem
A good ol' noreaster. Just like Grandma used to make...

Bring it in January... last winter was SOOO disappointing with its lack of snow :(

I AM looking forward to the 22 degree drop in daily high from Thurs to Fri. 86 just ain't right in October...

Floodie
At the risk of being unpopular, I much prefer the weather chat currently dominating the blog. Bravo!
ECMWF Model Just to counter the GFS's active long term forecast:)

The gfs does seem to lend a little moisture to the ULL, but more in the way of a low that is weak & fighting with an ULL...The backside of the ULL, the flow is moving up, while on the front side of a system trying to form that would be moving down. Too close & little low takes a bad shearing. The UKMET has more of moisture with no organised flow being simply & wholy sucked into the ULL. Most the models bring the ULL south toward the Bahamas while teasing NFL on rain.
WPB, look out! It's also transposing some of the letters in your words.. :)

Bored in NC (my physics kids are testing),
Floodie
who, and were??
WPB, look out! It's also transposing some of the letters in your words.. :)

Bored in NC (my physics kids are testing),
Floodie


Who and where??
Every El Nino season there is on average at least ONE HURRICANE IN OCTOBER.

Many, forming in the Western Caribbean.

The landfall "hot spot" on U.S mainland is the Florida area.
Saddle, where's that threat?
anyone whi has ever experienced them know that noreasters can pack as much punch as cat 1 canes easily
Just kiddin with ya, WPB. (you typed "smae" instead of same).

I can't type anyway. Took me 8 minutes to type this much!

I feel sorry for those people having highs in the 90's this week. Kills the halloween/football spirit.

Floodie

whether they are tropical or nontropical isnt worth mentioning as far as the effects can be
Pyrotechnic somebody's blog.
I was just looking at the NAVY Shear model.

I'm getting page can't be displayed on the Navy model site...Here's their invest page.

Check out Bebinca
STL,
When wast the last El Nino simulair to this

Anyone can answer, just sure STL can get it for me.
you typed "smae" instead of same

i know, didnt feel like changing it
Taz, Here's another view of the blob off the southeast coast. Looks like it's going west, doesn't it?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
(copy and paste into address)
When was the last El Nino similar to the one right now? Well, first, El Nino's usually don't develop at this time of the year (Dr. Masters has a blog on the ususual timing of the current El Nino, as well as the unusual La Nina before it).
Trivia Question: Which storm in the early 90's had a minimum central pressure of 960 mb and had a storm surge that caused more deaths than Hugo and Andrew COMBINED?

Hint: K8ecane's previous comment...

Floodie
Here is Dr. Master's blog on El Nino; of note is what he says under "El Nio and climate change":

A trend to El Nio at this time of year is unusual; May or June are the typical months that El Nio starts to develop. While the Climate Prediction Center expects that this will be a weak El Nio, the unusual timing of this event puts us in relatively uncharted territory. Since 1950, only one El Nio has started in the Fall, the El Nio of 1968.
(click on link to read more)
Floodzenenc

some storm complex
floodzonenc

I would look up for the link but to lazy
thats what i was seing chicklet the southern part looks like its moving west the northern looks like it moving ne which one do we go by . ?
Chicklit yes it dos look like its going W
hey taz what do ya think where is it going to go will it drift west for a while ?
right you are WPB!!

Superstorm of 1993

http://www.answers.com/topic/1993-north-american-storm-complex

Floodie
I agree with Michael...The ussual ENSO patterns that we have come to expect..seems to have left the planet. This El Nino has warmed faster than any in the past at onset, as La Nina last year was way cooler at onset..totally against climatoligy.

These are my putting 2 & 2 together on the subject with what little info we have on what ever shift may have occured here...The La Nina last year cooled so fast, but ended quickly, so quickly it isn't even an official la Nina cause it didn't last long enough. Now on the El Nino this year the models, of all the spagetti there, the few models that had it so warm so quick don't keep it warm long. So perhaps it won't be as long lasting or as severe as it could...On the other hand, one other thing that has popped up odd in the ENSO cycle the last few years is that offical El Ninos way out number & out last La Ninas.
how do you report people??
Interesting.. on the surface map, the trough east of FL has been removed & in it's place is a cloud of convection. In the GOM a smaller cloud of convection has been added to the piece of trough there, which is not as west as it was earlier today..
Click on the ! button. or E-mail Aaron.
what does that mean skyponey will the bahamma blob head west ro north ?
A cloud of convection just means more developed than a trough. It gives no clue as direction.

I don't see the bottom half of the BB moving west right now, it looks stationary with building convetion to me, having a little easier time building on the west side but the east is filling in some too. The convection over all, in the southern area, is being blown to the NNE. Even though the models aren't calling it (but they are kinda all over the place)..I wouldn't be suprised to see the top part break off & move NE, that's been kind of par for the season so far.
Skyepony, I meant east. It does look that way. Is there something coming off the east coast to blow it east?
took the rest of this week off from work
Afternoon everyone
so enjoy my presence this week/weekend
Ok we have turned down the burner on the stove to stop the boiling so dont touch it.lol
You can block people from the blog- but can you keep them from sending you mail?

I have a little twerp that won't leave me alone...(*cough cough pyro cough*)
WPBHurricane- I took vacation until Tuesday. Hooray for us!
Check out the Goes-east. Slow it down some...A short trough moved off FL, you can see how it enhanced convection on the BB. Behind it is brown dry ridge sinking to the SE through FL, just beginning to interact with it now, in the last few frames you can see it is strong enough to push it away from FL.
Posted By: Utah2Miami at 3:23 PM CDT on October 04, 2006.

You can block people from the blog- but can you keep them from sending you mail?


Yes; go to your mail and click on the Lists tab and add their name to the Blocked list. Also, report him to Aaron (WunderYakuza; his "real" email is aaron@wunderground.com, which is often a better way to contact him than WU mail). Hopefully, he will get kicked off the site.
hello everyone! just got home from school, and it's hot! (94) will cool to about 65 tommorow though! YES!!!!!!!!
and cavemanjoe...
201. MTJax
A few hours late but here is the 205 TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41 S OF 19N WITH AN EXPOSED 1011 MB LOW
ON THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS WAVE IS EXPERIENCING FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT W/SW SHEAR S OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 38W-41W...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ AND WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 37W-45W.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 15N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW TO MID CLOUD
FIELD NOTED FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 49W-56W. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS
MINIMAL WITH THE ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY NOTED WITHIN 75NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 8N-12N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71 S OF 20N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT INVERTED V PATTERN NOTED...WITH CONVECTION
MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE FAR N PORTION. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE SEEN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 66W-75W. SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS INLAND OVER SE MEXICO AND ENHANCING DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN THE EPAC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N25W 10N37W 9N50W 7N58W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE COAST
OF AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 13W-19W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 20W-36W WHICH IS
PARTLY BEING INFLUENCED BY SPEED CONFLUENCE S OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE COAST OF TEXAS THROUGH NE
MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM THE
YUCATAN IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IN THE SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 91W-98W.
THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS REGION ALONG 19N92W
27N96W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE
SRN GULF FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 83W-91W. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE SHOWER/TSTM REGIONS ARE STREAMING TO THE
E AROUND THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF THROUGH 85W. THE FAR ERN GULF
E OF 85W IS UNDER VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR WITH TROUGHING
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS EXTENDING S
FROM ITS CENTER NEAR ASHEVILLE...PRODUCING 15-20 KT E WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SENDING A MODERATE E SWELL THROUGH THE WRN GULF
AFFECTING COASTAL TX AND MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WRN
CARIBBEAN ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA/SE MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS SEEN IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 82W-88W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXTENDING S/SE THROUGH ERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE WATERS S OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH PUERTO RICO
FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 65W-77W. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO BEING ENHANCED
BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. 10-20 KT TRADES
PERSIST AT THE SURFACE WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COLOMBIAN COAST...AS S SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH
LOWER PRESSURE NEAR COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH VERY
DRY MID TO UPPER AIR JUST OFF THE FLORIDA AND SE US COAST. THIS
REGION ALSO DOMINATED BY THE SRN PORTION OF A 1025MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. THIS HIGH WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE NE/E WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD WIND SWELL OFF
FLORIDA. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR
MORE INFO. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING NE FROM THE SE
BAHAMAS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 68W-75W...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM 22N74W THROUGH 31N64W. THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS IS BEING STRETCHED NE WITH UPPER SW FLOW
BETWEEN THE TROUGHING OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER HIGH JUST
N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY NEAR 27N51W SURROUNDED BY VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR. A
DEEP LAYER LOW IS NEAR 31N35W WHERE A WEAK 1016MB SURFACE LOW IS
ALSO ANALYZED. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER WHILE
DRIFTING N...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THERE IS AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SW FROM THIS REGION ALONG 24N37W 20N43W 20N56W. UPPER
W TO SW FLOW S OF THIS TROUGH IS SHEARING THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
IN THE AREA. AN UPPER HIGH PERSISTS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF
AFRICA. THE ERN ATLC ALSO DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
1030MB SURFACE HIGH JUST N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
WILLIS
Oh, listen to you Caveman!!!! Talk about hypocracy when mentioning manners!!!!!

Do as I say, not as I do, huh?
Waiting on a cold front, I am sick of 87 degree weather!
What's up with the blob to the east of Florida and the blob in the GOM????
I just tried posting a link to a buoy
and the link feature would not work ?
Anyone else having this problem ??
Thanks for the GoesEast Skypony.
Weak.
Yeah, I've only been blogging here for a year and a half and I am a troll.

Get real.
It seems like an awfully long tropical report MTJax for nothing going on out there!
(Junior high school must have just let out the little cave people...)
42057 and 42058

Both showing very low readings and no wave nearby
Nash just ignore him he might be 13 if that old.lol
CHECK OUT THIS BUOY
kmanislander~ others are having that problem, someone with it should tell Aaron...link & italics problems aren't happening with me.

The buoys east of FL are looking interesting, dropping before their sceduled time...peaked lower.
AND THIS BUOY
Ok.....Kids.......Settle down...Dont make me get out the belt......


Man....the SW gulf and just off the east coast of florida ...looking interesting......Wouldnt it be something if we had two major hurricanes develop out of both these areas......right after the major predictions yesterday.....
thanks Skyepony

Now I'm seeing " bold "

Maybe I'm being punished for something LOL
29.73...that's pretty low.
weatherboy, shhhh dont even mention it.lol
I would bet you 1 million that doesn't happen FSU!!..LOL
story

thats one of two I have been trying to post.
its still looks like the southern part of the bb is moving west is it ? or its just a blow up thanks
Hi Everyone,

If seeing bold is punishment, then I'm being punished too...
bold gone now
duh ??
Notice he didn't say $$$$$$$$$$$$.

If he had I could imagine his pinky to the corner of his mouth and one eye squinted.
That is very low!!!
i fixed it
Dollars!
how ?
All fixed now thanks:)
Now back to the weather...
I just put away all my hurricane gear, so I see something mentioned about the GOM, do I need to get it back out again?
hello all
NO
Posted By: kmanislander on October 04, 2006.
how ?


I'll email ya. Don't want some of these ppl knowing how it's done
Hey Teddy.
cavemanjoe
I know exactly what you are.
The daily Troll who comes on because there misrable and want to make other misarble
You put the last half of the bold sign in
Hmmm... pressure is falling (discounting the diurnal tidal variations):



Note: Always remember to check the pressure history graphs (icons to the left of measurements), to make sure that a pressure fall really is a pressure fall and not normal diurnal effects.
STL is were is that information coming from
Is it off of FL That Blob that spinin blog
Come to think of it, I don't think the NHC accounts for the diurnal pressure variations when they report pressure in a storm (otherwise, you would see a list of squiggles on the graphs in the post-storm reports)...
Good afternoon once again,

Alot of different scenarios with this disturbance in the bahamas.South-florida may need to watch this disturbance closely over the next couple of days.
257. MTJax
Posted By: Chicklit at 8:39 PM GMT on October 04, 2006.

It seems like an awfully long tropical report MTJax for nothing going on out there!
(Junior high school must have just let out the little cave people...)


I sincerely hope this was for that joe person. I have not done anything to deserve a comment like this.
will look for it
I got it from Story:

Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 3:43 PM CDT on October 04, 2006.

AND THIS BUOY


Remember to always look at the graphs to see if pressure is really falling or not (diurnal pressure fluctuations have nothing to do with lows; they are caused by the same thing tides in the ocean are - the Sun and Moon).
MTJax: Of course it's not you, are you kidding me???? I'm trying to be subtle.
STL also Currnets play a roll
(The gulf strem for one say)
hur23 are you seeing somthing that can push the bb west into so fla. at this time . or is just going to stall .thanks
Check this out this discussion by the NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
323 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2006

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 07 2006 - 12Z WED OCT 11 2006

WE HAVE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO DEAL WITH IN THE MED RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MODELS/ENSEMBLES OFFERING MANY POSSIBLE
SYSTEM SCENARIOS.

...ERN US...

A DISCONCERTING TREND WAS EVIDENT FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF WITH A
CLOSED LOW/TROF EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN OVER THE ERN US BY THE
WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM LIKELY HAD THE LEAST PREDICTABILITY OF THE
MAIN MAP FEATURES. THE 00 UTC ECMWF TRACKED THE SYSTEM
CONSIDERABLY OFFSHORE...BREAKING CONTINUITY WITH ITS PAST SEVERAL
RUNS AND DEPARTING FROM OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. MOST OTHER 00 UTC
MODELS CLUSTER S AND W OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF WITH THE MID-LEVEL
VORTEX DAYS 3-5...AND THAT SCENARIO NOW INCLUDES MOST 12 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12 UTC ECMWF. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
MAY STILL BE TO LEAN ON THE NCEP ENSMEAN BUT MANUALLY ADJUST THE
LOW SLIGHTLY SWWD TO ACCOUNT FOR 12 UTC GFS/EC TRENDS. A MORE SWD
DUG NOGAPS/DGEX MAY NOT BE AS LIKELY CONSIDERING A FEW DAYS AGO
THE ARGUMENT WAS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WOULD EVEN DIG AS FAR S AS
THE NE US. EVEN SO..AMPLITUDE OF THE CENTRAL US RIDGE DOES LEAVE
OPEN THAT LESSER OPTION. THE 12 UTC CANADIAN HAS BACKED AWAY FROM
THAT SWD DUG SOLUTION SWITCHING FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH A MORE OPEN
TROF. THAT CHANGE IS PREDICATED ON OTHER DEEP W ATLC LOW
DEVELOPMENT FAR OFFSHORE FROM CONVECTION NOW E OF THE BAHAMAS...A
SOLUTION COMPARITIVELY ONLY HINTED AT BY OTHER MODELS.

Click here for more
264. MTJax
Chicklit thanks. I should not have asked. That is not your character. I should know that by now *bows in a gesture asking for forgivenss*
265. MTJax
ADJUST THE
LOW SLIGHTLY SWWD

getting interesting
stormybil a TROF may try to pull this system away from the florida coast but if it does not this system may get stuck under the ridge that will build after the TROF and may even push this system back to the SW in time.
Was that a Westcast Hur23???
Michael, I was commenting about ones like this buoy & there was a better example out there...peaked early & not in the common point fashion. It should start to rise soon. There were ships out there a few hours ago, closer, but the last time I checked withing 250 of the worst area they were gone.
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 5:07 PM EDT on October 04, 2006.

Was that a Westcast Hur23???

Iam not sure what you mean be that...but all iam pointing out is there is a couple of scenarios that can play out with this system.Until i see it turning NE and away from south-florida i keep watching.
Oh my gosh Jax. I feel bad! But not your fault. I hate getting into the personal stuff, but the dweeb got to me...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO NOT SHOW A CLEAR PICTURE OF THE DIGGING POTENTIAL
FOR THAT SYSTEM DOWN TO THE S OF THE ALEUTIANS...BUT SOME
POTENTIAL SEEMS EVIDENT. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR DEEP LOW
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE NE PAC INTO AK DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE AND
SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM BUILDING OF A MEAN RIDGE OVER WRN CAN...WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF ENERGY LIKELY TO CENTER OVER CENTRAL CAN/N-CNTRL
US.
Does this mean a Carolina storm is possible?
Could someone translate that discussion for the technical weather jargon iliterate (me)
Thanks!
Chicklit from south-florida up to north carolina and even futher up north may need to keep to an eye on developments in the bahamas.
Now everyone just hold on for a dad gum minute! I distinctly remember the other day LOTS of people saying "oh...east coast is over - don't worry about the east coast...it's over!" Now, seems like you are saying it aint over - I am a gulf disaster person myself as in I don't want one there, but are you sayin' that the east coast is NOT over after all?
Wonder if it becomes TD-10
im more concerned about the soutern part of this bb hur23 it looks like it keeps blowing up and its not moving anywhere . can you tell whats going on .
i cant . lloks like it might be 2 seperate systems this hour one is showing going ne the other one south stationary am i correct ? thanks
Can someone please post an image or link to a site that has both the El Nino of 1997 at this time in October of that year, and also the conditions presently in 2006 with El Nino.

I just want to compare the 2 El Ninos. We're already getting rain here on the West Coast early in the season. El Nino is showing itself already here.

Thanks
GOM ..in the visible...Link
El Nino..97Link
SST anamalies, October 1997:



SST anomalies, October 2006:



Note: See Dr. Master's El Nino blog a while back in September; the current El Nino is ususual and the best analog year is probably 1968, the only other El Nino that developed in the fall instead of the spring.
paper on El Nino..past & future..in the scope of Global models...good readLink
NASA link to their site on El Nino..Link
hey guys whats up in the tropics!??
New Radar for the G-4 Noaa Plane...Link
Hurricane Research Division..celebrates 50 yearsLink
MAN WEST PALM BEACH IS AWSOME!!!!!!!!!!!!! ON vacation:)!!
BUT i see theres a blob of t-storms. be back in a bit gotta go food shopping: )
Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on October 4, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

An area of cloudiness and showers between the eastern Bahamas and
Bermuda is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. There
are no signs of organization...and upper-level winds are currently
not conducive for further development.

A second area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is also associated with a broad
trough of low pressure. Again...there are no signs of
organization...and upper-level winds are currently not conducive
for further development.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

$$
Forecaster Beven NOT BY MEEE
I was just going to post that...NHC says no chance for any tropical development anywere as upper-level winds just dont favor it.
upper-level winds are currently not conducive
for further development


The story of this year...
MichaelSTL you can say that again...Remember its also been the year of the ULL'S spining everywere.
Thanks a lot for the help on the El Nino info all.

The 1997 El Nino sure was a nasty one.

Appreciate it
MAN WEST PALM BEACH IS AWSOME!!!!!!!!!!!!! ON vacation:)!!

LOL!! Welcome to my home town, hope you enjoy, sorry but I dont enjoy it.
MAN WEST PALM BEACH IS AWSOME!!!!!!!!!!!!! ON vacation:)!!

ok what drugs are you on, I want some
Yay!1 it will get to 67 degrees at my location on sunday night :) first 60's of this winter/fall
same here Roman
Map I made. Just an ammature...so still learning!

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Posted By: HurricaneRoman at 10:23 PM GMT on October 04, 2006.

Yay!1 it will get to 67 degrees at my location on sunday night :) first 60's of this winter/fall

lol, I was pretty excited when it got to around 63 at about 6:00am last Friday. It was nice.
hey guys

who do I email about my link feature not working ?

TIA
what happened to everyone ??
kman....e-mail the great Wakuza...keeper of the blogs..ruler of the WU nation..you'll find his link under blogs...top row...last one of the top.........aaron is his name......wundergod to those that fear his wrath......

ok......and hello boys and girls...missed you today..and after reading the good dr's blog...can someone tell me....what the point..of a revised forecast...coming out in october...it's like letting me bet on the ponies...with one furlong to go...hold on...that's not a bad idea..i might be able to win one of two..but actually....it seems to serve no point.....just some musings...enjoy your night
thnx

will do
Dr. Gray has no credibility. Even in his area of supposed expertise, he got the numbers and intensities of hurricanes absolutely wrong this year. Many on this blog did better with their predictions. This helps puts his pontificating on the subject of global warming (a subject in which he has little expertise) into context..
Got an E-mail today from the parents and sis. Their in NFLD in a little town called Portugal Cove South on the East Coast. They rather enjoyed the leftovers of Isaac. Aparrently they got some great gusts and the waves were quite something. Said they would send some pic's. Will share with all when I get them.
ricderr

the harder I look the less I see
I clicked on the link for Blogs but do not see a link for Aaron
What am I doing wrong ?
dang snow...not sure i can go that far.....i always equate weather predicting with golf....my best round...2 under par..so...with that..my best day..i can beat tiger on his worst day..of course...on any given day..he can wipe the course with me...same thought about forecasting
here you go kamn...push the botton.........they call him the developers blog...5th one from the top...doc masters is the first one..was gonna link it..but mine doesn't work either
thanks guys

maybe he will fix all the broken buttons at one time !
no luck
Aaron's out of town so I e mailed support

ok ricderr, maybe I'm being harsh about Dr. Gray but I think he's a bit of a poseur. In the meantime, the tropics are sure looking blobby. I wouldn't be surprised if something starts cooking out of that mess of convection..

18z GFS continue's to show a strengthing low-pressure agree the western caribbean.



CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE 18z GFS LOOP
how far out is that image, h23?
gfs also show a low pressure crossin western florida (1008 mb)
snowboy its very long-range and has to be taken with great caution.But my point is the GFS has been very persistant developing a low-pressure area in the western caribbean.Its actually been showing it for almost 2 days now.To me the western caribbean is an area south-florida has needs to watch carefully in the month of october with cold-fronts pushing into the southeast and stalling in the GOM and parts of the caribbean.In the next week or two the MJO pulse will be moving into the area and will bring with it upward motion which is needed for tropical development to occur.I expect the GFS maybe picking up on this. Adrian
Hi-rez low angle of Katrina August28th,0Link5..click to enlarge..
317. 882MB
WOW just got back and I see still that the GFS still has low pressure deepening south of cuba. I also noticed another little im pulse, the tropics are definetely becoming active.
Been watching the probibilities of formation graphic in my blog. Both the gulf & BB has been on the rise all day. Suprised the gulf one has been out front by a nose all day. They both went up again during dinner. The gulf is now clearly in the lead. Well atleast according to this graphic.


credit~ NOAA
the near shear...Link
Ther Shear animated..thru 06 OLinkctober..
321. 882MB
I really think we should pay close attention to the first one because its not that far out and it comes right over S, FLORIDA. It develops near the Bay of Campeche and moves rapidly to the NE right over here.
I don't know if it would be a big FL consern. Steering currents currently point west & have been building. Though the blob has been hanging out in the one spot the gradient isn't tight. It would have to stay there & fester till a front came. Think Mexico has more reason for consern.
..not much here..GOM..obs..Link
325. 882MB
Can comeone please post the FSU TROPICAL MODELS page i cant get a hold of it!
FSU page..Link
NHC model overview..Link
FSU models

Good evening StormW
You all keep talking about this gom stuff and i dont see it can some one help me please
Patrap~ 7-8' isn't bad for the gulf...read big swells should be coming fot MEX/TX in a few days.
I dont know i live in clearwater which is 10 min from the water. Just wanted to know if i need to keep watch or not
cyclonebuster - LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL! LOL!

No wonder you only show up when I select "Show All"... LOL!
337. 882MB
Thanks, How come some of the models have not updated?
Gulf buoy watchin.

All the models don't have 18Z runs, others only run when storms are around. I don't know why there has been no cmc in 2 days.
Ty storm
342. 882MB
I just read the discussion from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE from Orlando,Fl it talks about that the cut off low that is expected to form over the mid atlantic states could drift as far south as the gorgia maybe even florida coast line. It also says that given warm SST's and High pressure could bring some weather here to the floridas coast. I suggest ya take a look at it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
cyclonebuster, how would your tunnels stop this??? Many people, (and apparantly, including you), think that only major hurricanes cause a lot of damage and/or deaths...
346. 882MB
Thats what im talkin about Skyepony
347. 882MB
I have to go be back in a few!!!!!!!!!
Greetings, just checking in for the first time today. All is quiet on the eastern front. see all you Gulfies and East coasters are looking at lots of rainy blobs offshore. Ill scroll back a few hours to get up to date..............
Look @ the cloud-tops on Bebinca!!

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Hi there kman. Looks like you had rain all day?
360. 882MB
I keep on noticing that more MODELS try to bring the CUTOFF LOW that will develop this weekend more SW.
361. dutch
Whew!
So far so good for southern Florida!
We could use a break at Nettle's Island.
October probabilitLinkies...
Oh my. Its slow and quiet blogwise here tonight. There doesnt appear to be any weather to talk about at all. I'll give it 15 mins and see............
That gulf buoy is falling when it is suppose to be rising...
Oh no PATRAT< 2% for me???????? Shuks man , I was just getting into the whole thing and it seems to be over. Well maybe next year (I hope not actually)
I'm sorry. I mean PATRAP
Skyepony, so what are you saying?
368. 882MB
Well Everybody have a great night. See ya tommorow. Early in the morning Im going to check the GFS 00UTC AND 06.
...Ive been called worse..LOL....pottery..
sandcrab~ notice on the graph there every time the green line (pressure) crosses a gray line (particular time of day), it has just begun a rise, part of a pattern caused by the gravitational pull of the moon. To see a pressure fall when it should be rising signals not just a trend down in pressure but a drop, like a surface low is trying to form. Right now it has barely started, it could quit in the nexr hour & rise. & really 29.91 isn't that low, 1012.9mb. Just buoy watchin:)
There's a cloud outside in front of my house. Can I give it an invest number so I have something weather related to talk about?
I noticed that the pressure has risen again to 29.94" and it was lower a day ago until it rose again. The general trend over that last few days bas been a slow drop in pressure (lower peaks and troughs in the graph). The average pressure is still higher than 1013 mb (29.92 inches), although this is relative, as you can have a 1013 mb low if the surrounding pressure is 1015 mb.
NHC Basically put out the same outlook as the 5:30pm...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050230
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS BETWEEN THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

A SECOND AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AGAIN...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Guys sorry to bother here but....how do you load a photo or Where is the blog about all the help for loading a photo??

img= s....... something like that
Accordionboy, go up under the Dr.'s picture to Links and you can find the info in Starting your own blog, etc.
Thanks Goofoff

Even though I've been part of this site for over a year, just never really learned that, or learned it and forgot it
Accordionboy, are you referring to the image code (img src="URL")? If so, I have an image that explains how to do it here.
Posted By: Patrap at 9:02 PM CDT on October 04, 2006.

...Ive been called worse..LOL....pottery..
like...uhhh ohhhuhh...banned maybe...lol
ive lurked here most of this hurricane season..made few comments..cant tell you all how happy i am for this uneventful season..i declare it over for the atlantic & GOM..see you all next yr..or not!
Patrap and I have 27 windows, long time lurker and rarely post but when you both were off the blog I was so upset i stopped watching this blog for awhile. Patrap has taught me more about weather thru his great links. Sorry guys but it does get pretty technical at times and hard to keep up. And 27 if i was half as intellegent as you are I would consider myself a lucky woman. PLEASE both of you keep up the good work, it is greatly appreciated and you both have a way of brightening the day and blog during the best and the worst of times.
hi pottery

I just came back on to see if anything was going on. We did have another round of serious lightning and heavy rain today. Its either drought or flood here.
Once Dec arrives this place will be bone dry until next May at the earliest.

Incidentally, I still cannot link anything either for those of you having this problem
maybe the linkmeister has cut us off for some transgression or other LOL
looks like everyone has turned in for the night so I will do the same.
Nothing going on now anyway. The buoys in the Caribbean are all showing rising pressures. Sorry I can't link them for you !!

Till tomorrow then

gnite all
im turning in!!!!
hey sleepyheads, the tropics are starting to cook. We're seeing Bermuda high type systems setting up, which will keep anything that develops from just whizzing out to sea..
What is the blob east of Fl?
Good Early morning,

Takeing a quick look at the convection in the bahamas vicinity and its continued to persist and actually consolidate a bit more.I expect whatever trys to develope in this area should track in a NE fashion.The 00z GFS and NAM track this system NE.Right now iam thinking this could make a brief run at hybrid type system. The question is what does the surface trough do to it's southeast?My guess is this probably just ends up being a frontal trough on the low. Adrian

NHC @ 5:30am Just continues to nearly put the same outlook as the past two...No tropical devlopment expected anywere as upper-level winds are not favorable. Adrian
utah to miami: I saw same car tag here in Brevard Co. Fl..since I ski as often as I can out in Utah, the tag caught my eye...was that you? If so...what a small world...reel bull
I live in Brevard county as well and have seen the plate. I use to live in Utah so it is always a treat to get to see a plate, any plate from Utah.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

The story of my life, as well as the season.
Good morning everyone.
Morning Nash...and everyone.
Morning Rand. So, did I miss anything interesting last night??
I don't know...I wasn't around. And haven't read back. Guess I don't really care.
I just posted a bunch of NWS info about the Carolina low on my blog. Here's a blurb from the Jacksonville office:

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LATEST GFS BRINGS THE CUT-OFF LOW EAST OF THE GA COAST WHERE IT
REMAINS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SURFACE...THEN BEGINS TO RACE
NEWD EARLY IN THE WEEK. WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COAST
Well, I split once Caveman decided to deficate all over the blogs.
I don't blame you. He was everywhere.
Here's an honorable mention from the Melbourne office. Interesting that these guys are mentioning the Yucatan area. Looks like this low pressure area will be hanging in the Gulf for a bit.

MON-WED...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE COUNTRY. GFS HINTS AT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN ADVECTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE...THOUGH THE MOST RECENT RUNS
CONTINUE TO DELAY ITS ARRIVAL.

Morning all! Can someone tell me what the z in 18z stands for.I thought it was for hours,But been confused!Thanks and heading to the beach.....
I don't recall the troll activity ever being this bad. I mean, even Nash is a troll according to some. lol
z is for Zulu....
Missed last nite..what the HIll Happened?
Patrap
Thanks,But what would the 18z mean?Does your name patrap have anything to do with Pa. state?
Pat, you didn't miss much. Just a "new" troll calling himself cavemanjoe was everywhere.
..Er..well then use your BHG..and go to google and put in Zulu time..youll get all the answers youll ever need on the subject...
hey
does anybody have any ideas on the severity of this Noreaster forming off the NC coast tomorrow/Sat?
I live in Norfolk, Va, and was curious
Yeah.Ive seen him around the last2 days..what he do..act Buffoonish?..or just a typical troll?
..not a true noresater..just a low swirl with Hybrid characteristics..no threat to US ...
I've seen worse content...he was just very prolific...he was everywhere!
A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS BY LATE FRI OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND MOVES S OFF OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TO E OF THE GA COAST SUN NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING
AND MOVING NE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

I have more info on my blog.


...SAT THROUGH WED...THE CLOSED LOW INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS FRI WHICH PULLS A
RELATIVELY DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH S FLA SAT.
I cried to My Daddy on the Telephone..How long now?....Until the clouds unroll and you come home ..How Long Now?.....
good morning all

Looks like a little action near the Bahamas.
I just looked at the shear map and that blob stands a chance. Still can't link anything though which is mighty suspicious.
You don't suppose that someone has deliberately deactivated this feature for some of us by any chance ?
huh..will have to go back and c...
..link check..lol
anyone hear how riccderr made out with his Canine friend...yesterday?
That map confirms it eh patrap ?? lol
Morning Storm.
too funny
where is the linkmeister when you need him ?
Pat, saw it went well.
had link claustrophobic moment..LOL
Good for ricc..thats a tough thing..always..
I have no link, bold or italicize buttons today either. There yesterday.
Morning everyone, hope all is well.
got 2 tickets to see the Tampa Game Sunday..Superdome..........sweet!
..Moring crab..how goes the County?
..I thinkie..u no can linkie...LOL
buoys in the Caribbean continue with below normal surface pressures. The one S of the Caymans is steady at 29.8 in.
Pressure tendency has been towards lower highs and lower lows for the last several days.
If upper level winds relax something might get going in this area.
Pat, its as the world turns.lol
Morning Crab.
a BOC..Gom trend...Link
randrewl
I e mailed Aaron yesterday about the buttons but got his out of country auto reply saying e mail support at WU, which I did. So far no reply from them either
Pat I have not forgotten about the pics just got on my friend yesterday for not getting them to me. As soon as he does I will get your Addy. and send them.
Morning Rand top of the mornin to ya
after the ban..I feel like im in a Communist state..of blogging...creepy..LOL
I guess he's still gone. I mailed him Tuesday and received the same.
Who got ban
ok crab..no hurry..Ive got lotsa scanning to do..since my siblings are puter illiterate when it comes to uploading and scanning pics..Ive got boxes of Family stuff to scan for them...due to the scare of losing them to another flood...my luck to be the FAMILY scanner..LOL
..yeah..Arron away burying family....but he got back to me after the deluge of patrap mail...
one thing is certain the ban took a lot of the humour out of the blog which I do miss.

What a dull world it would be if a sense of humour was outlawed and yet that is essentially what is happening here.
Kinda sad really.
I understand about not posting age and content sensitive material etc but everyone needs a good laugh now and then
...Stay on topic...sounds alot like" stay on target!"...LOL
sandcrab

some were banned, have been forgiven and resurrected to the blog. There are others who will probably never be allowed to return unless the slip back under an alter ego, kinda like Batman lol
Pat and 27Windows were banned Tuesday Crab. They are restored and re-born now!
uh oh
I'm straying off topic LOL
I got banned Tuesday....for libel against the WU state..LOL..2 months home incarceration....ankle monitor..LOL
Randrewl

you forget " reformed "

LMAO
...u can go to my blog and see the tuesday comments..like 300 hits on my blog that day..we had great time..a civil revolt it was in the main blog..LOL
Geez, I am amazed you can have those like yesterday that provoke the regular folks but yet they seem to stay.I really wonder.
Reformed.....Yeah.

That has yet to be proven!
Hence the ankle bracelets!
well coffee time but will bb later when my link button works lol
..I cried to my Bloggers on the Telephone..How Long Now?...Till the Ban unrolls and you come home ..How Long Now..?
455. PBG00
Born again wishtians!!Mornin everyone
Morning All,
In case you are interested, here are the conditions under Bahamas area blob ( Turks and Caicos Islands ) :
Temperature 81.1 F / 27.3 C
Dew Point 75.4 F / 24.1 C
Humidity 83%
Wind Speed 15.0mph / 24.1km/h ( I would say no wind !!)
Wind Gust 18.0mph / 29.0km/h
Wind NE
Pressure 29.86in / 1011.1hPa
Rain : NONE and we meed it to fill up the cistern

What is this disturbance doing?
Could it become TD-10. It has managed not to fizzle out over the last 6-7 hours
Morning PBG.
459. PBG00
I have been absent as of late..missed all the fun. What is up with the gfs..two days now showing something crossing western fla..any significance to it?
460. PBG00
Hey Rand!
From the NHC.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
CONUS front to push off the GOM coast..into the Gulf..come sat...
..local Mets forecast outlook..NOLA...Link
Weekend relief..yeah!
PBG..the low pressure area in the Western Gulf is forecasted to move over FL next week. I have some info on my blog.

Here is some of it.

GFS HINTS AT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN ADVECTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE...THOUGH THE MOST RECENT RUNS
CONTINUE TO DELAY ITS ARRIVAL.
466. PBG00
Thanks.
I was checking out the NWS local (MLB) as well. Here's the BB part.

SAT...INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS THE GFS HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER
SOUTH-SOUTWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SC COAST. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THAT MAY MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

SUN...DGEX APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER (TO THE SW) WITH REGARD TO THE
POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY GET PICKED UP AND LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WX...THIS WILL MEAN THAT A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. MEXMOS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES NORTH OF THE
CAPE.

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....HIRSCH

They also mentioned our dry season was coming early:(
21N71W...interesting, your pressure has dropped off since lastnight.
The wave axis seem to be on or Linknear the Mexican coast..with the bulk of convection..still festering..in the BOC...
This thing is festering 48 now..and is in good situ to stay put ..and fester some more...
I hear ya patrap. Been sitting in a spot where the steering gradent is wide & certainly looks like some festering has begun. The local NWS sure seem more concerned than the NHC.
Bahamas.




Gulf




Pat, mail
..the Blogs are up and freaky this am...."Ill have the roast duck..with the mango salsa.".!..LOL
All right guys...tomorrow's the big blast off of the saddle families vacation...little fillie and stud already have the car packed, washed, gassed up and ready to go...of course, me, being the only one not homeschooled or self-employed am stuck here today (not on the blog but at work doing payroll). I FORBID any bad weather to form anywhere NEAR Ft. Walton Beach in the next 72 hours and I apologize in advance to the residents of Ft. Walton Beach for the devastating effects that may result from the saddles being on the loose!
LOL Patrap!
..Saddlegait..is okay..Front to push thru the panhandle to give ya a good buffer..Remember Bail & sunscreen..
Packed it already - actually the two dark complected smart a...s packed it for me so I wouldn't forget! They were mumbling something about sitting close to me on the beach to catch the extra rays from the reflections!
Heres saddlegaits vacation forecast from the Met locally..Link
Thanks Patrap...looks good on the weather front...
saddle
you be nice in Ft Walton by grandkids are there
saddle
you be nice in Ft Walton by grandkids are there



Honk as you pass P'cola.
mornin everybody! :)

whats that "brewing" in the GOM??

Good morning.......

My sentiments exactly..........

None of the big dogs are talking about that area..... Whats up?

I need to watch this area this time of year...Florida is in the bulls eye for this area if it develops.....
looks like 20mph+ sustained winds SSE of sabine..... but no indication of any pressure drop in that area....


hopefully Dr. Masters will have the "skinny" on this..... :)
488. WSI
"None of the big dogs are talking about that area..... Whats up?"


The NHC mentioned the Gulf this morning....

"A SECOND AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AGAIN...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT"


Shear is way too high.

new blog up
looking at that shear map..... doesnt seem to many many areas that ARE conducive! LOL