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Double trouble: Phillippe and Rita

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:10 PM GMT on September 17, 2005

We are now in the third week of September, when water temperatures in the Atlantic are at their yearly peak and historically the strongest hurricanes develop. Given that this year's Atlantic water temperatures are the highest on record, we have in place the best fuel source ever seen for making intense hurricanes. Combined with the low levels of wind shear developing and forecast to remain low over the tropical Atlantic, we have a high potential for the formation of major and potentially destructive hurricanes. A newly formed tropical depression approaching the Windward Islands and a developing system north of the Dominican Republic both have the potential to develop into serious hurricanes, and will need to be watched closely this week.

TD 17 (Phillippe?)
TD 17 is here, and will likely be the first major hurricane of September. This storm will be with us for the next two weeks, since it is moving slowly and has a large area of ocean ahead of it. The storm is in a an environment favorable for intensification, and should be Tropical Storm Phillippe Sunday and Hurricane Phillippe by Tuesday. The shear over the storm is 10 knots, and forecast to decrease. The waters beneath it are a warm 30C (86F). Some impressive lowel-level spiral bands have formed. Upper level outflow is good on the southeast and north sides, and an upper-level anticyclone overhead should provide a very favorable ouflow environment for intensification. All indications are that Phillipe will be a hurricane, and probably a major hurricane.

Fortunately, initial computer model forecasts do not show this storm striking any land areas. A large trough in the mid-Atlantic is pulling TD 17 northwest, and the storm should pass east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Tropical storm conditions may affect some of the northernmost islands, though. Once the storm moves north of the islands, long-range computer models indicate the possibility it will continue northwestwards and threaten Bermuda. However, remember how wrong these long-range forecast were for Ophelia, forecasting a landfall in Georgia early on! It is impossible to say where TD 17 may go five days from now.

Blob northeast of the Dominican Republic (Rita?)
A disturbance northeast of Puerto Rico continues to generate some impressive clusters of thunderstorms, and definitely has the look of a system organizing into a tropical depression. A mid and possibly low-level circulation has developed near 22N 69W, about 250 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The main convection is well east of this circulation center, and would have to build over the center before a tropical depression could form. There is about 10 knots of westerly shear over the disturbance, keeping the convection blown over to its east side. This shear is expected to decrease over the next 24 hours, which should allow TD 18 to form later today or tomorrow. The upper-level winds look favorable--an upper-level anticyclone has developed on top, and should provide good outflow for the storm once more deep convection establishes itself. Shear is expected to remain low, water temperatures are very warm--30 to 31C. The chances for this system to become Tropical Storm Rita--and possibly Hurricane Rita--are high.

This system is expected to move west-northwestward through the Bahama Islands and towards South Florida the next few days. Several of the long-range computer models have been consistently forecasting that a strong ridge of high pressure will build across Florida about five days from now, forcing the system on a more westerly or even west-southwesterly path across Cuba towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.


Figure 1. Early track model forecasts for the Puerto Rico blob.

ITCZ
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), remains active. However, the main activity is at about 8N latitude, which is probably too far south to generate a tropical cyclone. If some of this activity works its way to 9N or 10N, we may have a better chance of development. Most of the global computer models indicate that a new tropical storm will form from the ITCZ sometime during the next week.

Ophelia
There is some good news in the tropics today--Ophelia is weakening rapidly, and has given Massachusetts a wide enough berth so that tropical storm conditions will not occur there. Nova Scotia, though, will likely get a direct hit from Ophelia and receive 45 mph winds, 1 - 3 inches of rain, and a 1 - 3 foot storm surge.

Damage estimates from Ophelia's long unwelcome stay over North Carolina are said to be less than $800 million--a remarkably high figure for what was only a tropical storm for all but a two square miles area of the state. Perhaps the category system for ranking hurricanes also needs to take into account how slow a storm moves. What we really need is a separate "storm damage potential" category for hurricanes, as Steve Gregory has championed on his blog.

For those of you who missed by blog last night, there was a scientific first accomplished in Ophelia last night--the first ever remotely-piloted aircraft penetration of a tropical cyclone. A aerosonde flew through Ophelia at 2,500 foot altitude, and measured winds of 74 knots. The project is described in detail on the NOAA Hurricane Research Division's web site. The objective is to use the pilotless aircraft in regions where it is too dangerous for humans to fly:

Simply stated, continuous observation of thermodynamic (temperature and moisture) and kinematic (wind) structure of the near-surface hurricane environment has never been documented in a hurricane. This environment, where the atmosphere meets the sea, is critically important since it is where the ocean's warm water energy is directly transferred to the atmosphere just above it. The tropical cyclone surface layer is also important because it is where we find the strongest winds in a hurricane and coincidentally, the level at which most of us live (i.e. at/near the surface). As such, observing and ultimately better understanding this region of the storm is crucial if we hope to improve our ability to make accurate forecasts of TC intensity change. Enhancing this predictive capability would not only save our economy billions of dollars but more importantly it would save countless lives.

Well done, Aerosonde Corporation and NOAA!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Yes Stormtop I would like to see the video too :)


And now the first prediction I should get right this year! The last advisory will be written on Ophelia at 11 p.m. tonight as the tropical characteristics are fadind fast, but not to worry, Phillipe will be named at 11:00 p.m. to keep things going :)
Philippe is really rolling now (convection wise) I can see this as a hurricane by 5:00 pm tomorrow. This storm is stationary or nearly stationary. The longer it meanders around there the better chance it has to get caught under the ridge of high pressure and be turned west towards the US coast. Just a best guess at this point. This is one organized system.
what time will the 8pm be comeing out and will it be a TS at the time?
the gfdl on the wu shows the blob going towards texas and mexico. what it doesn't show is in the last frame of the run it is about to turn north into la. it slows down the growth of the storm thru dats 2 but still blows up a major cane as she passes over the keys
hey storm praise god your safe we really took a beating here in south ms. god bless you in no i got 1/2 ahouse left and my inlaws in bay st louis house flooded sis in law on o.s. beach lost everything. brother your prediction was right on glad to see i have my gulf man back been overwhelhmed with a.c. coast and fla folks lol. glad your back these nhc and model worshippers are killing me im glad that 2week noreaster is gone .
thats been the only topic on here looks like another gulf problem hope the gfdls isodore track is bogus but believe we are going to have a strong hurricane in gulf next week. p.s
you think landreau will get reelected lol. wife in hospital with cancer got to go back to hospital god bless and good to hear from you.
TD17 continues to look better this evening with outflow shooting outward in all directions... very impressive for a system not even named yet. Track-wise, the models that have been showing a very abnormal northwest to nnw track through five days are getting even more abnormal. The 8pm BAM models now take soon-to-be-Philippe DUE NORTH for the next five days. This is mid September, isn't it? Philippe is just east of the islands in the deep tropics, isn't it? I have never seen anything like that track this time of year, period. I bet at least 95 out of 100 storms in that same spot this time of year would hit the islands.
hey lefty,,, I saw a GFS run out to like 300 hours that shows a system developing in the bay of campeche then heading NE. U think runs that far out can be correct???
with the gfs i belive it. she forcasted nate and ophelia about 8 days out
if thats correct we may be in trouble up here in Fla panhandle huh lefty???
so they don't name it a ts, we have no quicksat wind sat passes till early tomm morning, well after the next recon is there. this is bs lol. she probly has winds in the 50-60 moh range and they will name her a minimal ts at 11pm and wait for the recon to make her stronger. what a joke. they should just name philippe and get it over with
I wonder when?? (rita) develops will she stay on a soutnern track across gulf or recurve toward northern gulf coast??
sh, what part of florida are you?
panama city vicinity jhans
over here in FWB
PLEASE DROP BY MY BLOG
anyone feel we gonna go threw entire alpahbet this year? lol
oh yesh
brush up on your greek
lefty,,, just looked at 18Z gfs run didnt see system in gulf out 300 hrs .. unlike the 12Z runs that did show a system?????
Hawkeye, let's just keep that thought that 17/Phillipe will be one of the five that don't hit the islands instead of one of the 95 that do. I'm all for weird meaning that storms stay away from land masses insted of getting stronger and heading right at them.

--CC in the US VI
OMG it's been a crazy night, had a person shot a shotgun towards my house about 45 mins ago. My heart hit the floor, needless to say I will not be sleeping tonight
why did someone shoot a shot gun at ur house?
Where do you live Amorris?
I live in Citrus County fl, I don't know we just moved her a few months ago. My son was in his pool and I was on the phone.
wow thats carzy
maybe they are after the people that lived there before u
Did the police come?>
what up all so what is going on with TD17 and when will we see are TD18 i think that we may have one by 11:00pm tonight and what about TD19 when will we have that?
Yeah my Boyfriend is a police officer for the city nexted to us
left, havent been here all day, so you have probably been over it 45 times now but i have to ask,, i do not see td 17 going almost due north like some of theses 00z modles showLink

its not moving right now, at least not much,, i think the trough may miss it and let it come much farther east,,, what do you think about this option
530. OBXER
Lefty looks like you had a good chase you almost made it here just a ferry ride away.I had to get away from tropical stuff for awhile after this long drawn out woman.
Where is everyone?
The NHC surprisingly just named the blob north of Hispaniola TD18 with a 5 day forecast track to the wnw then w across the keys as a cat 1 hurricane.
do we have a ts yet?
they have not updated TD17 yet maybe they are waiting till 11PM
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
So much for the mid-level high minimizing the effect...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 69.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.1N 73.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.6N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 77.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

Hello, TD 18. . .
lol that didn't take long. what did dr.masters say earlier about it not forming till maybe tomm afternoon at the earliest. i tried to tell him that gfdl shows the potential of that water and she will blow up. cat 1 by this time tomm probly lol
539. OBXER
Oh joy just had to deal with the big O and now it looks like the Abacos might be affected.Word of wisdom to all do not own two houses in areas that experience heavy hurricane activity.
obx check my blog. got pics from my tripto chase the o
541. OBXER
Lefty sent you an WU email
and we now officially have tropical storm philippe
obx i didn;t get it thats funny lol
As TD18 is forecast to be a hurricane centered near Key West in 72 hours I would think they will issue an evacuation order sometime tomorrow. Some of the people in Key West will wake up tomorrow morning and be quite surprised to learn they may get a hurricane in a couple days.
lol yeah hawke. that gfdl looking mighty scary right now
546. OBXER
Lefty you didnt get the email?
no not in my wu e-mail
It seems that someone mixed up Ophelia, Phillipe, and Eighteen together on the tracking maps and coordinates.
left do you but into the north north west motion on td 17 in the comming days, i do not
Yea, NHC has too much going on.........They had a massive brain fart........LOL
no, i don;t even have much confidence in the cenetr they listed. the cenetr is under that eep convection now and hr motion is not 4 kts. themotion is stationary


aslo low its now a ts so lets give it its repsect. ts philippe
Anyone feel like TS P will just go out to sea?
no they m,essed up the identifier for the system and changed it. next they will fix ophelia or take ehr out alltogetrh as she is no longer a tropical system. if u read the data at the botoom it tells u corrected identifier
i don't. i think philippe will have some suprises for us. take note of that cenetr positona dn check where tis located at in a couple hours when recon gets there. the cenetr they gave would put the cenetr out of the convection. why would the cenetr be exposed? i don;t buy it and i don;t see any evidence of it and it will be moving very slowly and miss the weakness and the trough that was going to take it out to sea
I'm done for the night. Aught to be getting interesting when I wake up tomorrow morning.
You sure about that?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516.html
If it misses trough, what's likely to happen, any ideas?
thats a wu problem lol. i was refering to what happned at the nhc website that is now fixed
the building ridge over the ne us will turn her west from anywhere from going over the bahammas to hitting the us east coast from florida to va
and ophelia was already described at 5pm of being extratropical and its sdat presentation has gone to crap. she will have her last advisory with this one at 11
Thanks lefty
obx u still here man. did u check the photos
lowpressure, if you don't buy into the North/Northwest path predictions, where do you think Phillipe is likely to go and why?
I swear I read in a few places on the net, including from the wunderground experts, there would likely be a lull in the action once Ophelia was gone. Things sure got cooking in a big hurry.

Here is a link for some of the early track forecasts for TD18. At least none of these models are bending the storm back to the wsw toward Mexico. Most models don't yet have any kind of handle on the system.

Link
the 11pm advisory states this is the last advisory issued by the nhc on opehlia. she is done
what's the thoughts on td18
ok now we have also TD 18 :/ when will 19 arive :P
Then there is the 2005 Hurricane Archive.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp
yeah hawke, dr masters said the gfdl was no good, he stated the sytem would not a depression till tomm afternoon, he stated that the tropics would be quite and the dust would suppress any development


WRONG WRONG WRONG LOL
what is ur point, i told u they messed up on the identifier that is used when the txt i sent to the computer porbgram that made that map. its been fixed on the nhc end and either by the next advisory or when ever wu notices it it will be fixed. damn u find the craziest tghings to dwell on
be back smoke brake
amorris thats why i have my own little office so i can smoke my cigg at the computer lol
oh boy the Bastardi hype machine should be going right about now..lol..he must be licking his chops..lol..
lol weatherguy, why u gonna mention that name in here
oh thats right and its a full moon..lol..uh oh i better run while i can..lol..
The models on TD18 are getting more tightly clustered towards the NCentral Gulf Coast. It was beginning to look like we here in SWLA were going to be dominated with an unusually strong ridge...our temps next week are supposed to be in the mid to upper 90's because of the unusually strong high pressure. What happened to the ridge surpressing any tropical system westward across the gulf towards S Tex or Mexico?
Check out this interesting section of the NHC TD18 discussion.

The intensity forecast is much more of a challenge than the track forecast is. The vertical shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt in the 36-60 hour time frame...while the cyclone is over 30c and warmer SSTs. This would favor rapid intensification if dry mid-level air does not get entrained into the center. Afterwards... the GFS-based SHIPS intensity model gradually increases the westerly shear to more than 20 kt and levels off the intensity at 73 kt. However...the NOGAPS...UKMET...and Canadian models show a 200 mb anticyclone with an east west oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida Keys by 48 hours. Even the GFS develops a similar upper-level pattern...only across the southern Florida Peninsula. The close proximity to such a favorable upper-level outflow pattern suggests that this tropical cyclone could be much stronger by 72 hours than what is currently forecast by the SHIPS model. The 18z GFDL model rapidly intensifies the system into a 120-kt hurricane in 72 hours. While that rate of intensification may be a little excessive...this system reaching strong category 2 status within the next 72 hours is certainly a viable scenario.
Dang, I leave for a couple of hours and Phil breaks out (knew he would) and still has not moved an inch and now 18 is there with what looks to be 19 out there off the coast of Africa as it is about to make it N of 10.

And what is that to the N of Phil? Anything?
lol hawke thats fraking funny. watch that gfdl be right. just watch it. iam telling u this bad boy will blow up like a stick of dynomite. whats does jj say DYNOMITE!!!!
A trof moved through here this evening (The Bahamas) and we had gusts up to 32 mph. Now ... a hurricane is forecasted to come right at us in Nassau ... ah well :(
yeah i agree with that..cant see how a 20 kt. westerly shear is going to develop given the upper air pattern setting up, that doesnt seem correct.
just any area of convergence associtaed with phil, same thing we saw with that mass of convection next to ophelia for 4 days remeber
so when will we have TD 19 i am sorry to say this but i am loveing it i do not think this has evere been two TD 17 and TD 18 all in one day wow sorry for saying tjhat i am loveing it i did not mean too this a little happy right now
Who else believes that there may be even more names retired on this list by the time the season is over?

So far, there is Dennis, Emily, Katrina, and maybe even Ophelia.
What models are you looking at Fanatic? It looks to me like the GFDL has shifted S and carries Rita further W then the previous model run.
ophelia wont be retired only major hurricanes get retired of i remebr right
sj if u look at the gfdl past 120 hrs, to 144 on that website i gave you it shifts north and will make landfall in la by 144 hrs. they don't show that on the wu page casue they only show 120 hrs out
Lefty, the rapid intensification shown by the GFDL before hitting the keys is certainly possible, but I think there has to be some skepticism about how fast the GFDL spins this thing up over the next day or so. It might very well take a little longer to get fully organized.
We could have four systems in the basin by Tuesday or so. Good grief that is a little excessive.
Then why was Isabel retired when it only made one landfall as a Category 2 hurricane?
is there 2 wavs off Africa? Not sure what I am looking at LMAO still to new at all this! :)

crucian- i dont buy into the north to nortwest motion because i believe the storm will not get picked up by the trough.. i couldnet count the times this year alone that the early modles have said a storm would be picked up by this and that, also generally, although not all the time but generally storms in that area do not go north unless they come from farther out or form farther north, as for where i think it will go, i just think it will go a solid w-northwest track before maybe turning more nw,, as for what it might hit,, i will not guess yet,, there are just to many other things that could move it in the next 10 days,,, and as for a generl rul i never trust the early runs of a new storm,, and dont trust the modles forecast on TD's at all,, even know this is now a TS,, they have not been inatiolizing well and r still picking out which part of the atmosphere they want to be the dominant steering flow..
is isabeal retired?
594. cjnew
i think death and destruction goes into hurricane retirement as well as intensity...but maybe not...if not it should though
amorris yes there are 2 waves
Yes, Isabel is retired.
Well, we officially have Phillipe now.
lefty, which part of La? (west, central, or east)
Death, destruction, cost, and intensity are the factors for retirement.

Tropical Storm Allison was retired in 2001 due to the heavy amounts of rain it brought to Texas.
yeah ok i found out. a storm must ahve a major impact on a large area or cause lots of economic destruction than the name can be submitted to the wmo (world meterological orginisation) and they decide if it gets retired. any country affected by the storm can request it be retired and the names are not actually retired. they are just no used for 10 years per the rules but no retired name has to date been used again
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/retirednames.shtml
looks to be right smack dead in the middle of la. but thats just one model and one mdoel run
We could have Stan and Tammy by Wednesday.

That's a scary thought.
SJ, I'm looking at BAMD, BAMM, GFDL. They are generally headed towards the N Central Gulf Coast.
all u guys saying philippe will be a fish storm. heres what the nhc thinks on the track



The initial motion is an uncertain 335/4. Steering currents are
unusually weak for this region of the Atlantic...and Philippe is
expected to move slowly northwestward around the southwestern
periphery of a weak mid-level ridge throughout the forecast period.
By the end of the period...the ridge is forecast to strengthen to
the north of the cyclone...and that may result in a more
west-northwestward motion than what is indicated by the official
forecast. The NHC model guidance is rather divergent...but is in
general agreement on the forecast motion and the forecast track is
close to the model consensus.
sigh...was afraid of that.

looks to be another agonizing week of run-to-run shifts. Guess this one won't be pinned down till the very last minute.
notice how they gave themselves an out if they need to adjust the track in 3 days lol. i see that ridge in the models and feel that the trough will not pick him up and a threat toland will be a possibility
also they have no clue where the cenetr actually is or if the system has moved any in the last 6 hrs. they just made a crappy update and are really waiting on the recon that will get there at 2am
only fish i =n the near term for ts phil,, its ganna hit some thing
told u guys i have no confidence in the cnter location in the advisory nor does the nhc cenetr, which is funny lol, as they named the cenetr. check this


conventional and mcirowave satellite imagery suggest Tropical Storm
Philippe has moved very little to the north-northwest during the
past 6 hours. A 17/2154z Quikscat overpass showed the surface
Center West of 55w longitude...whereas the recon position near that
time indicated a circulation center east of 55w. My feeling is that
the recon center was a small circulation rotating northward up the
east side of the larger low-level center...and that the two centers
have now consolidated near 55w. A burst of deep convection has
developed over and south of the alleged low-level center...and
satellite intensity estimates are 45 kt from TAFB...35 kt from
SAB...and 25 kt from AFWA. Due to the uncertainty in the exact
location of the center...the initial intensity is an average of the
various intensity estimates. A recon aircraft will be investigating
Philippe around 06z.
what do you think you are talking about i am a grown-up i am 20 years old lol
CosmicEvents I am with you 888888 needs to grow up a little
so dont be supprised if she is actually located around 12.5n and 55w. thats my best estimate right now but i know its no where near 15 n as they put in the advisory
im with lefty,, NHC is way off on the start of this one
ok maybe the cenetr is a litle morenorth lets say 13.5 but i know its not 14.1 for sure
When are next recon flights scheduled for 18 and P?
hte stormcould be as much as 50-60moh right now asnd they set it to 40mph.they just want to wait till they get the recon in befor they do or say anything more lol
a flight will arrive at P in a couple hours.first flight on 18 is tomm in the afternoon
NHC has "Rita" still as a tropical storm when it supposed to pass over us Monday night. What do you think is the percentages on that?
BTW ... I am still without hurricane shutters, as they have to come from the US :( :( :(
Hey 8888 I think the Blog Police need petting. Why don't you go check. Then maybe if you are good for awhile Jim C will let you pet him.
88888 Please, grow up man
i belive in 24-36 hrs when that shear lessens below 10 kts, maybe befor that, u will see an explosive development like the gfdl forcasts. maybe not that strong but i expect a cat 3 pasing over the keys
Thanks Lefty, seems as if they're putting up watches and warnings, they would recon it sooner.
StormJ LMFAO
LOL WHAT EVERE so what is up with TD19 and how soon will we see it?
8888 I don't know why don't you go and ask it!!
That's good Amorris. Have not seen the F in there before.LMFAO.
u can't just call for a flight out of the blue. thelogistisc of it. they need the flight to P and it was already scheduled and has been enroute for a couple hours now, so u have to wait till the scheduled flights they ahd scheduled for 18. it was shceduled to be inspected earlier today for tomm. so thats when the first flights will be
hey all I see we have T.S. Phillippe and we should have Rita by tomorrow but they are not sure where either one is right now and Rita will be one to watch...
recon will get to 18 tomm at 1pm est time
Remember what Dr. Masters advised us to do with inappropriate posts. It just takes 5 of us to hit the obscene or spam button. This kind of stuff is the last thing we need right now.
sorry guys 8888 is just really getting on my nerves
They have already put up hurricane watches for several islands in The Bahamas, including the one I am on. Now, to bed with these thoughts in my head :(
Nite all :)
we are now in sat black out it sucks. hey sj u want to do a lil halo durring the black out
They need to get on moving Floater 1. Hell, otherwise will just send Stormchaser1 down there to check Rita out.
makes sense, thanks
het yhere been out all day looks mighty interesting over the waters. 888888 dont know anything hes in cal been hit by to many quakes out there
OMG! I leave for a few hours and we not only have Philippe but TD 18. You all called it!
loldunno,i think killdevil max is in greece lol
Yea.
i was trying to tell dr/masters cocunut. he didn;t want to hear it. its ok some of us are in denial. watch 18 blow up in the next 72 hrs. remebr i said major cane over the keys
nite bahamas we will keep it close ok :)
ok sj meet u in the lobby
888 Sorry to tell you this but I'm not a man and I am talking to you!!!!!!!! :0
I still think 8888 is Jeff14-Jeffmanweather-themuffinman-theboldman and who knows who else.
thanks taco .. nite all again :)
Nigth myB
leftyy...you have a good opinion for an amateur....but you did say Cat.2 in the Keys. And you also said Ophelia would hit SC/GA. It's cool though. These things are beyond perfect predictions...thus...the cone of uncertainty. And intensity forecasts are even harder.
888 I think the "PLAY ROOM" is down the hall and to the right....!
I just can't help it. It has to be fixed.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at200518.gif
ALL HAVE FUN IN THE HURRICAN
I just did my broadcast and played it very calm with re. to 18 (didn't want to scare too many people yet)but it doeas have me worried. Rapid intensification is entirely possible. The only thing that may inhibit this is the immense amount of dry air coming down Florida from the leading edge of the building ridge. Check out the water vapor.
LOL AH AH
I've got to say it... I've been lurking on this site for awhile before I ever jumped in. I recall a few conversations where you all were getting grief for giving your opinions. Well, today I went out and got what I needed and now all I need to do is put up the shutters. Everyone is going to be running around the next couple days and I can hang out on wunderground :)

Although I have to say maybe I am a little too obsessed. My 4 year old daughter was playing hurricane this morning. lol
TV where do you broadcast?
cosmic, if u check the posts all day i said cat2-3 in the keys, i also stated track is not my strong suite and no on knew where ophelia was going
LMAO @ Amorris

that sure needed to be said and thank you
I'd rather not be too specific b/c I like my anonymity but S. Florida.
Goodnight everyone.
why your welcome.... :)
Hey John Matthews? Steve Weigle? Rob Lopicola?
Posted By: TVwxman at 4:05 AM GMT on September 18, 2005.
I'd rather not be too specific b/c I like my anonymity but S. Florida

Who are you Superman???..LOL...
Oh Sebastian...Let's not play this game please lol
hey all look at all of this lol


Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Turks and Caicos and the central and southeast Bahamas. Hurricane watches are now in effect for the northwest Bahamas. After moving through the Bahamas this system could threaten portions of South Florida and the Keys by late Monday and Tuesday.
CCFLA...how did you daughter play hurricane? :)
No defientely not superman. Just a Meteorologist trying to make some sense out of a wicked season!
Thats right Leftty,

Now as for me I know I said she was going to cross FL and come in some where near MS/AL line... So on that note I am not going to say this time... I will wait for a few more days just to see... But it does not look good for us right now...
Well we'll see in a minute I think, but I'll let it go
yeah sebastian its after midnight here, you know what happens..lol..Also full moon..Just was wondering TV because i was in the business at one time..oh well...
you there TV?
Where you located Weatherguy?
St. Augustine
Yes. I'm here.
Where were you in the biz weather03?
She pulled these rain ponchos from the hurricane closet (an unneeded linen closet in the 1/2 bath that we keep everything in). She wanted to put them on (I didn't want her to b/c I'd never get it back in the package so I used a garbage bag). She then ran around like a maniac saying that she was getting blown around. She then switched to superhero mode and ran around saying she was going to push the hurricane away.

She likes to watch the animated views of storms with me. I try to explain it to her. Perhaps I've been showing her them too frequently :) The good thing is that she isn't scared of these storms. She thinks they are pretty cool b/c she gets "hurricane food" (i.e., all the junk food we usually don't let her have).
We used to consider that the safe zone on the coast, don't know about that anymore lol.
In jax..FOX 30..Awhile ago..Did behind the scenes work, never was on camera though..no one wants to look at this face..lol..
Sorry to miss out on most of the discussion about soon to be Rita. I had a interruption of internet service again, compliments of Katrina repairs. Remember gentlemen we're now moving into late September. It is very difficult to get any type of hurricane to move nearly due west across the Gulf of Mexico, and strike anywhere on the Texas coast. This time of the year, and the changing of the seasons usually cause hurricanes to recurve north and northeast before reaching the western Gulf of Mexico. It is highly unlikely that the high pressure ridge now currently over the northern gulf coast will hold in place all of next week. I look for one of those fall season trofs to come down into the central plains and weaken the ridge over the central gulf coast. Rita will then turn north in the central gulf and threaten the se or central LA gulf coast as a cat 3 hurricane. Hope to be wrong, but...
Yeah sebastian, but weve been real lucky considering all of the storms to hit Florida.
ok ST Jr..lol..
Until last year we had been too.
Just a general request. To avoid confusion please identify which storm you are spking of in your messages. I have seen some messages wher it is not clear which y'all were talking about rita or P. Just a humble request from an interest lurker. thx!
is there not a way that 8888889 can be blocked so we don't have to read the remarks......alot of us are under the gun and do not need the remarks..
Not familiar with that station. I'm a newbie to Fl. from the North. What the heck did I sign up for!
A Bills fan in S. Florida should be under the gun, lol
LOL TV..Yeah they are now CBS 47 as well up here..they are both FOX and CBS...did forecasting for them, mostly PT..and on weekends..i had another real job also..lol..
I hear you Billsfan. I really don't like being in the blob of doom. We know we have to ride it out. Yeah, it's supposed to go south of us but we all know that is just a guess. These things turn all the time (e.g., Charley)
Anyway back to the topic at hand...has anyone checked out the wv loop lately? pretty dry air funneling down the state.
blob of doom is that NHC forecast bubble thing on their 3 and 5 day forecasts. Blob of doom just seemed appropriate.
First of all, I hate the Bills, secon of all who the heck is this 88888 guy?
TV, not a meteorologist, what impact would that have on 18-Rita ?
8888 is spam
TV 8888 is the guy that pets the bolg police
Coconut......I even went out on a "limb" and told my 6th grader school may be cancelled Monday (told her yesterday)....hope I'm wrong..
tv
88888 is from cali and acts like hes 2 yrs old
Well hopefully we could see some dry-air intrusion. It would depend on the wave's/dry air timing as to when/if they could interact. If they did interact, dry air to a hurricane is like garlic to a vampire.
Hello All,

(HI Lefty, you answered some of my questions yesterday, thanks).

Anyway, i was just wondering when you guys think we will be dealing with "Rita" in the Gulf?

Also, I wanted to add that we frequently read these blogs and find them very informative... We are so glad that Stormtop is okay.. His forecast prediction for Katrina was awesome..

Thanks for any info...
Back to question TV, if dry air is coming down Fl. won't it be to late to affect 18 which should be rita by then?
It is a new depression that has just formed you cannot even think that the probability of it hitting west palm beach is any higher than moving through the keys,also it is forecast to hit touch south florida then head through the keys but this may very well change.
Billsfan: Better safe than sorry! Worst that can happen is you are wrong. It would be much less stressful for your 6th grader if they had to go through the craziness that a last minute cancellation would be.
There is alot of moisture ahead of it and that dry air already has come down and actually is less dryer now then it was yesterday,in fact the moisture and instability is quite high now,moisture will win the battle against dry air over the next several days in Florida.
Jimmy C Stinks.
TV, would it affect direction? Let's say it is acane as it aproaches S Florida, could this push it further south?
i love late nights on here..lol..i stay up just for the entertainment...after midnight it gets crazy..lol..
David,

I know you enjoy reading these posts and participating in the conversations. Could you try a little harder to settle down a bit so we can learn more from each other?

Thank you!
sj
now you went and did it well never hear the end of that one
Most likely yes... But if you look at the vapor loop it's cruising at a good clip. And it's encompassing the entire SE. If the ridge strengthens and progresses to the east it could perhaps advect into the storm. It is the only real hope I see to inhibit major intensification. And the operative word is hope.
Maybe if we just totally ignore that special someone that annoys us all, he'll just get tired and go home...Ya know, the way it used to be on the playground when we were all kids.
CoconutCreekFLA yes i will try tto do that
Thank you, David! :)
TV i dont think the dry air is all the deep and it definantly wont be able to sustain itself, the dewpoint here in raleigh is near 70 so even if that dry air does funnel down to the storm there isnt alot behind it.....its nothing like the dry air that was around ophelia
i agree with ya TV..Also, hopefully the ridge will be strong enough to push it well south of Florida and possibly into Cuba..
I guess what I'm getting at is this, at this time is there anything showing up that would lead you all to believe it would go anywhere other than where current path shows, like to me, lol, north.
Yay a tropical system to brake the dry spell in the area,as long as it dosn,t do to much damage,we get quite a bit of rain on average for the month of september but we have only had 1 inch here so far for the month,pretty bad,td 18 could end that all by a long shot potentially.
Yes. The stronger the ridge and the longer it hangs out, the further south Rita will be steered.
or me?
Well I'm not at work anymore so I can't completely visualize the vapor loop. But from recall, the leading edge hadn't made it close to NC yet.
No I want it to come into florida,it will brake this stupid dry spell just pray and hope it won't be too strong of a hurricane,but we have had 1 or 2 days of rain this month with a total of about a 1.5 inches which is a big deal for september in florida.Strange though because up intill recently is has been ver wet here as it typically is.
Interesting from the recon aircraft, wonder if they're going to do TD18 instead?

URNT11 KNHC 180415
97779 04084 10167 6250/ 70100 99005 64/// /5761
RMK AF300 0217A PHILIPPE OB 02
LAST REPORT


URNT11 KNHC 180423
97779 04124 10168 6280/ 70100 99005 64/// /5761
RMK AF300 0118A CYCLONE OB 01
DIVERTED FROM AF300 0217A FILIPPE MISSION.



It's stopped, muffinman!

Just curious: What flavor?
is it just me or does it seem like 8888 and themuffinman are the same person?
Jedkins
what parts are you from
See I told ya'll that Jeff 14 THEMUFFINMAN and 888 were one in the same.
hey tv do you have any ideas on where you think TD 18 which end up going?
errr change which to will
You're right Jedkins, except O's rain when it was hanging off the coast, we've been dry down here too. Besides I gues it would be better for small cane here than any cane on gulf coast.
Amorris cool it i am now cool down now ok
Well in my area near tampa a dew point of 70 and precipatable water under 2 inches is quite dry for us(moist for most parts of the country)and is recovering now esspecially in south florida,the ridge hopefully will brake down pull rita in and soakl the state and put end end to the dry spell for september.
StormJ I am with you, they are one in the same...
That part of florida can take hurricane better,better building codes better prepared,mainly because it has so many landfalls.
Lefty, any guesses as to why the recon mission diverted? Everything looked normal and then after OB #2, they diverted.
I wish I could tell you. That's what's keeping me awake right now. The best Ican say is that the NHC has been pretty good at tracks this year. Intensity- well that's another story. I realize that people have today claimed climatology won't let it get into the Gulf, but climatology also calls for 10 named storms/year. So in my opinion, climo is useless.

Off the record, straits of Fla as a cat 1, into the gulf and then I really don't know.
OK ENOUGH SWEARIN AND OTHER FOWL LANGUAGE I WILL HIT OBSCENE FROM NOW ON EVERYTIME I AM PRESENT......
Jedkins
i'm from zephyrhills been only .12 inches in my guage this month we sure could use so rain. can't rem last good thunderstorm either maybe when Katrina went bye
I saw someone say that we could have Stan and Tammy by Wednesday. Looking around I don't see much out there beyond Phillipe and 'rita'. As for hurricanes crossing the gulf to hit TX or Mexico after the equinox, it is unusal but it has happened more than once in the past. Hurricane Jerry hit Galveston in Oct 1989. Hurricane Inez had a wierd track and intensity profile in 1966 Link


Not saying that a westward track across the Gulf is likely, but it is not impossible in October.
Jed, plus everything got cleaned and cleared by Francis and Jeanne, Heck power crews from N.C. eve cleared the trees around the power lines behind my house after Jeanne, after they restored power after Jeanne they were still on tripple time so they were looking for things to do to stay down here, lol
Hey 8888888, Who pissed on your Wheaties this morning? And if you are going to insult people, perhaps speak in English so we can understand you.
Well intensity is just practically impossible but this is early in the storms development and the track could change alot.
hey Pensacola22,

Taco from Mobile and just wanted to say that we all need to watch T.D. 18(Rita) very close it could go anywhere...

Just to let you know....
TV LMAO
ok guys be back in a few, need a smoke :)
Watch for TD 18, "RITA" to move basically west towards the FL Keys. Rita at that time will probably be a strong cat 1 hurricane. Rita will then more than likely follow a very similar path as Katrina across the se gulf and turn north after reaching the south central Gulf of Mexico. Rita will probably strike near the same area as Katrina as a strong cat 2 or weak cat 3 hurricane. Just hope it is not just west of 90 degrees. This would be the most devastating blow on top of Katrina's aftermath.
Thanks Taco, I agree =)

Hopefully it won't come here, we could do without ya know.....
get real rita will be a cat 3 or higher as she passes over the keys
amorris: you have mail.
I respect your prediction GetReal, but I sure hope it is wrong, lol..
Where did recon mission divert to? 18?
yeah think they diverted to 18 damn i wanted a vortex on philippe
Also, I cannot remember hurricane watches being issued before when something was just designated a depression for the first advisory before, someone in the Bahamas government is very concerned!

Also this politically incorrect thought--if 'rita' made a beeline for New Orleans, and hit as say a 110 kt cat 3, I am not sure how much additional damage would be done--everything there is already wrecked. There are also a lot fewer people there--hopefully with all the military and FEMA people there (finally) they could get everyone out. It might make the recovery and reinhabitation of New Orleans impossible before the end of the year, and also might make even more evacuees decide not to return.
Maybe they suspect blow up and want to check 18 out.
the rapid itensification ahs even been noted by the nhc disscussion at 11pn. they just want to wait probly for more model runs and to see how the system fares befor they call for a major hurricane to cross the keys but rest assured tomm watches will go up and evacs will start for the keys
sebastian, I would have to assume so, they have reset the OBS to #1 and are enroute somewhere...
Thanks for the prayers lefty. You very well could be right, tomorrow will bring additional information that could well confirn your forecast.
Which is the lesser of the evils? For "Rita" to take the same track as Katrina (People are already evacuated, most power has not been restored, most damage has not been repaire ect....)Or, hit somewhere where there has not been any damage, housing thousands of evacuees from NOLA ect...
Cocon you got mail
is there a way to get 2 recon out so that way there will be one in TD18 andone in the P storm
I thought the same thing St. it's like the bahamas issued the warning so nhc upgraded, it looked funny the way the 18 thing happened
Is there a way of knowning when will the recon sample TD18?
Also, I don't like the setting up of mobile home cities--mobile homes are so flimsy during strong winds--even if they set up these new mobile home cities out of the reach of a storm surge, anything from a cat 2 on up would tear them to bits with the winds. And not even speculating on what hurricane spawned tornadoes would do.
Speaking as someone that just witnessed the awesome forces of Katrina, I agree that the mayor of New Orleans should now delay the return of evacuees with "Rita" possibly threatening the area!!!
Well if the levies go in nola again....very premature to speculate I guess
I figure they'll still be able to get a vortex message out around 6z, based on their location when "diverted" they were only slightly further away from 18 than Phillipe
My nightmare for an October hurricane is a high cat 3/lower cat 4 making landfall on florida west coast just north of Tampoaheading northeast. The eastern eyewall blasting Tampa and Tampa bay and sending a 15-20 foot surge up the bay. That might be almost as destructive as Katrina. Such a storm might give us hurricane winds on the GA coast also.
18.6N/66.6W 4 minutes ago.
as a R storm or a P storm evere made landfall in the usa be for and would this be the frist time evere?
ok all I am off to bed see you guys tomorrow
Cane, what is that?
Recon aircraft location..
Goodnight, Amorris!
ST.

i agree i live 40 miles ne of tampa and since katrina thats all they talk about storm surge in the city and could they be ready there anwser was ???????????
Thanks
Cane, where is that in relation to Phil and TD18?
I see a Peter storm in 2003

It just petered out.....lol
I'm out of here too. Play nice everyone :)
Salter I am about an hour or so north of tampa
Good Nite Amorris sweet dreams :)
Coco have a good evening too:)
Amorris

say around brooksville or further north
SWLA, almost over Puerto Rico, so by now approaching the extreme SE periphery of 18.
Remember the levees that broke around the New Orleans area are now just "PATCHED UP". The repairs are not as strong or as high as the original levees. It would only take a tidal surge over 10 to 12 feet to top and break apart these repaired levees.
canenut, they only hasve so much fueland 18 is a thoudand miles from phillipe
Taco my dreams will be sweet as long as the people be hind me don't shot anymore guns in my yard!
salter I'm in citrus county
Amorris. just keep your head down! I hope you get that situation resolved.
804. tessa
Wouldn't all the dry air from the high pressure ridge over Texas keep anything that comes into the Gulf pushed further south?
I have a feeling they're going to be putting extra planes in the air this coming week
Amorris

ok i know that area to.
nice country up there.
i'm in zephyrhills
After Katrina, I bet NHC gets some emergency funding if they ask
Since they are already to PR, can we expect to get a thorough advisory at 5A tomorrow...uh, I mean later this morning?
the nhc wasn't trlme wioth katrina. thye gave officials 90+hrs and they ignored the hurricane like it wasn't there
I am curious if anyone knows about the high pressure above FL and if it will be dissipating? It is now acting as a "shield"...
Going to hit the sack, too old for this, I'm sure I'm safe till morning, hope everyone else is too.
Tessa,
Yes it could keep it south just like Katrina did but sooner or later all storms move north and east if you know what I mean...
u would hjave gotten a thourough advisory even if they didn;t fly in ot her otnight
Lefty, I think they departed Puerto Rico at 03z. They should have enough fuel, but maybe not for a complete set of fixes.
tessa that all depends upon where the center of the high pressure ridge is as rita moves into the south central gulf. My bet is the ridge will either break down or move west, clearing the way for another strike on the central gulf coast.
I know you told me (lefty) that it was supposed to move out.. Are you still sticking with that...

(refering to the high pressure in my previous comment)
it won't be dissipating it will be building in even stronger. thats whats going to make 18 travel thru the tsraights over the keys.
Never thought NHC did anything wrong with Katrina, night
i neevr said it would be dissipating. maybe u missed under stood me.now 5-7 days down the road after rita is long gone that high will retreat ne and thats what will knock philippe west towards the us
sebastion? problem with a Bills fan in South Florida? geez, more Jets fans than you can count..we are here to chat about weather my friends......... let's keep it that.......should you want to invite me to a sports chat..we'll go from there :)
Ohhhh... So the high pressure will move east after that? After the storm gets in the gulf
A high pressure ridge appears to be locked solidly in place over northern florida for the next three days. That will force "rita" west across the FL Keys.
i am almost positive they will not be going to philippe tonight. once they diverted that was were they are headed than home
825. tessa
Right now the high seems to be located over north central Texas, as the local TV stations stated tonight. They are not forcasting it to move much of anywhere for most of this week.
Oh I'm sorry lefty...

Billsfan-just a joke from life long Dolphin fan, I hope you guys whoop up on the Jets, lol-goodnight
yes thats hwta is suppose to happen. its that building ridge that will give rita the enviroment to blow up in to a cat 3 or higher storm and that same ridge might force philippe into the us as well. the x factor will be the trough that is suppose to pull philippe out to sea. if he does not move north as forcasted, and i must note the nhc now says a wnw motion might be likely, than he will not get pulled out and will be steered to wards the se us and he will be a major hurricane in 3-5 days as well
So you dont think that Rita would come near the P'Cola area?

Sorry to bother with questions, lol, "learning phase" =)

Lefty, I didn't mean they were going to fix both storms, just TD18. I know you had your heart set on a Phillipe fix though!
ok if u want to belive ur local weatherman or the nhc. heres what the nhc says about 18

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. TD-18 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BUILDS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FILLING RDIGE WEAKNESS IS
UNCERTAIN AND THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE MOVES
BEFORE IT TURNS WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL KEEP
THE SYSTEM OVER OR SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. ONLY THE CANADIAN
MODEL AND THE TIGHTLY PACKED BAM MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 60-72 HOURS. SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CIRCULATION CENTER
COULD EASILY DEVELOP ANY WHERE WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN NORTH-SOUTH SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE OF A CHALLENGE THAN THE TRACK
FORECAST IS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE 36-60 HOUR TIME FRAME...WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER
30C AND WARMER SSTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR DOES NOT GET ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER. AFTERWARDS...
THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL GRADUALLY INCREASES THE
WESTERLY SHEAR TO MORE THAN 20 KT AND LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT
73 KT. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A
200 MB ANTICYCLONE WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS BY 48 HOURS. EVEN THE GFS DEVELOPS A
SIMILAR UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SUCH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE MUCH
STRONGER BY 72 HOURS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE SHIPS
MODEL. THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A
120-KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. WHILE THAT RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
MAY BE A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...THIS SYSTEM REACHING STRONG CATEGORY 2
STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS CERTAINLY A VIABLE SCENARIO.

Hi all - been a long time since I posted - we're inundated in Houston - with all our neighbors from New Orleans
If you want information on the sun flares go to Space Daily and they have a great article on sun flares -
Does Phillipe look like it's coming into the GULF at all?
i know canenut but u just said they wouldgo to philippe and i stated they would not. once they got diverted that was that
emmy i dunno, thats to far off. the major concern for the gulf right now is 18 orsoon to be rita
LOL, our local weatherman always brushes it off until the last mintue...
I musta mistyped, I guess when we have 4 storms it'll be really confusing.
Hello? I keep reading that some of you say that the Hurricanes will go out to sea then I see the models put them in the Gulf?????
Whats up?
yeah u should never go by ur local weatherman when it comes to a tropical cyclone. thast the nhc and only time u will here the facts is when ur local weatherman reads the statements from the nhc and me a amatuer looked at the models and saw the ridge moving east so ur weatherman is not doing his job
oh well looks like everything is col ow thats good oh and junkie you were right about muffianman and jeff14photots and jeffmanweather but you were wrong about 888888
Thanks Lefty for answering my first post -
So florida huh? or from what you can tell right now?
There is a huge HIGH over Texas - 102 degrees tomorrow in Houston
Emmy, I don't think any of the models put Phillipe in the Gulf, but most put TD18 (aka Rita) there in the next few days.
so leftyy420 i see 2 mor low out there that are not TD yet so when do you think that we may see TD19 and yes TD20 wow i say what a year this have been
oh yes im the bold man too
Is there any case that we will have any interesting news with the 2am advisory?

By the way... the new GFDL run takes TD18 further south after 3 days, towards Mexico. Ofcourse the model runs after 3 days are not so trustworthy and Rita has not realy formed yet.
Thats all we need here - lovely rita
IF it hits Houston we and all the displaced new orleans people have no where to go :-(
ok emmy listen carefully. td 18 will becoame a hurricane in 2-3 days. it will cross the florida starights into the gulf. it could hit fromanywhere from the pnahandle to mexico including texas. this one will be a major huricane


now philippe is way out in the atlantic ocean. it is forcasted to moce north slowwly and get picked up by a trough in 5-7 days. this scenario is wrought with porblem,s as you will have a building ridge to the east and north and no trough could possibly pick up philippe especially if it moves slow eniough and does not get north enough. thats syatem will most likley turn nw or wnw towards the us. the strength of thise ridges will determine where he goes after that. now we are talking abiut 10 days out at this point. he could go into the gulf, he could hit florida and than go into the gulf, or the most likely scenarion he will hit the se us coast. now this is what will happen if he is missed by the trough. once again we do not know for sure

hope that helps
It is HIGHLY unlikely that Rita will ever threaten the Texas gulf coast. Climatolgy usually turns late September hurricanes north and NE long before they reach the western Gulf of Mexico. However, there have been examples of October huricanes being driven into the southern Mexican coast. I don't see Rita tracking that far south.
Hey Rose Glade you came in tonight...

I beleive Rita or T.D. 18 is the one that you will need to watch... But not only Rita but it is going to be bussy the next 10 days from the tropics...
We can go to Austin, Dallas and San Antonio Emmy.
just wat we ned leftyy another major hurricane in the gulf stop scaring people
bekroweather. look at the gfdl closely. see the turn to the north just slightly hinted there. she is turning northwards at that point and its evedent in the longer range model runs that go past 120 hrs. the wu only shows to 120 hours. oh and that is not even the first run since she became a td and we still don't know the cenetr fix. incase u didn't know that model was run at 8pm well befor td 18 was formed and just came out as the gfdl and gfs take 5 hrs or so to run.
LEFTY
you can understand my nervousness -
however, I have to agree with GetReal Houston has never had a "late" September hurricane - but this year, all bets are off -
Climatology is helpful in a wider scale and not for predicting the path of specific storms.
themuffinman, i am not scaring people, i do not make the storms. i am forcasting what the models say and if u belive there will be shear rita will never get above cat 2 but if u belive the 7 other moldes that say she will be under a 200mb anticyclone and in a no shear enviroment she will be a major hurricane in 3-4 days. thats from the nhc disscussion i just posted. scroll down and read it
thx lefty for the info,
so where does this GFDL takes Rita after 120hours?
so leftyy420 i see 2 mor low out there that are not TD yet so when do you think that we may see TD19 and yes TD20 wow i say what a year this have been
believ what u want. ia m just telling you what the models and the nhc says. look at there 5 day cone, it covers the whole gulf coast, i wonder why. casue she could hit anywhere and they don't know how strong the ridge or trough will be that could turn her north like katrina. not making things up and if u want to go with climatology than do it. turn off the tv and computer cross ur fingers and tell me do u feel safe
Emmy, Jerry was a cat 1 hurricane that hit Galveston in Oct 1989.
well i am waiting for tyhe full gfdl tocome out so i can give u a link but the last run when it turned her north she went in la. so i think texas/mexico border is likley but i am just guessing at what the model says. iwill know more in a minute when i can see the model and not just a line on the wu screen
gfs makes landfall at the texas/mexico border now.she shifted north from her last run
think Jerry just hung out in Galveston - not to much of a nuisance for us in Houston - but like I said all bets are off :-)
8...89gg: here is my take on the far east Atlantic thunderstorms:

I think they are really impressive and they show some signs of intensification and outflow developing. However they have to fight with a lot of dry air to the west and north of them. Also the second wave is too far south and as Dr. Masters keeps reminding us, the Coriolis effect doesn't really help in that case.

In any case we have much more interesting weather much closer to us. Even for us... weather freaks, Rita and Philippe should be enough... I am so happy that the slow Ophelia torture is over.
Night all - good being back on here
I really am wishcasting though--I just hope New Orleans doesn't get whacked again.
yeah me 2but i don;t wish cast. and right now any placein thegulf is as likley as any other.take out a map of the gulf and pick a spot and thats a likley scenario right now. we will know more in a couple of days but the immediate concern is the keys. they will evacuate them porbly starting tomm or monday morning
Good Night Emmy Sweet dreams :) and I also say good nite all... See ya tomorrow...:)
thx lefty again,
any idea how ofter WU updates its computer model map? Like how much later does it appear after the actual run?
recon is almost at td 18 here is the 2am position uodate.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N... 70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

headed towards the keys guys, this could be nasty. the keys aint been hit by a major cane directly in a long time
slow Ophelia get out of her and Ophelia get lots you are a lol of a storm sending them to school on a sat Ophelia you a bad boy right?
StSimons - dont remember Jerry hardly at all - hmmm....
I can tell you first hand I PRAY it doesnt hit New Orleans
we have NO More room in Houston and these people have suffered enough - maybe it will hit the Mex/Tx border and the cacti and hyenas will get some rain
usually right away but there are kinks as its a automated system. the hting u ned to know is some modelsgo past 120hrs like the gfdl and also looking at the model tellsu more than a line.u have no way to know why she is moving the way she is when u look at the wu modelmap and its cool caue its set up for the newbies to be able to see where something will go
the sight i use to get the wholemodel is a slow ftp sight and it takes forever for the model run to get to it
Rita would be stronger if she made it to TX/Mexico--the heat in the water there was not taken up by Katrina. A path near Katrina's would probably keep her at a 3, the water temps have recovered some--but are not that 90 degree bathwater anymore. The water off TX and Mexico is about 86 or so--not the hottest but it is deep and would support a 4. A cat 3 or even a high 2 might just finish off New Orleans though.
Will they send a special advisory when the recon reaches TD18 or will they wait for 5am?
st the area katrina went over has rebounded. that is not an issue right now but yes the waters near the bay of campeche are alot hotter than the rest of the gulf. i fu would like alink to sst let me know
they won;t have a special adbvisory unless something changes. i will post the recon data when it comes out though
Night Taco - night all -
Leftyy I'm only pointing out that history and yes climatology usually indicate that most hurricanes that pass through the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico track wnw towards the central gulf coast. i.e. Betsey, Andrew, Georges, and yes Katrina to name a few off the top of the list.
I actually seem to remember that Jerry was an asymmetrical hurricane--with dry air on the west side, and that most of the impact was in Galveston, and east to Beaumont. And he was just a cat 1, after all

Lefty, do you think that Rita could get beyond a strong cat 3 if she follwed Katrina's path in the gulf? I don't think so, but I could be wrong.
They would typically only issue an advisory if it had changed a lot.
night emmy
did you all no that Ophelia where sending kids to school today that is right school
yes as long as the shear was light but it looks like she might catch some shear when she gets to the middle of the gulf. like i said its not my opinion, u stated the gulf could not sustain anything higher than a cat 3, ur wrong as the sst have rebounded to near what they were befor katrina,


here is the link notice how the sst are about 30c thats more than hot enough to support a cat4 or 5

Link
Rita will have a hard time going due west or anything with a southerly component after about 5 days with a trof comming across the US
GetReal... climatology in this case is as useful as seismology. They cannot tell you where, when and how strong. They can tell, however, that:
* California is going to get a big one one of these years.
* The Gulf states and Florida can be hit by hurricanes every summer from June to November.
Well I may be wishcasting lefty--a cat 4 in new orleans area would just finish New Orleans off completely. One factor--the major levee failures did not happen untill after Katrina passed by and water surged south from lake Ponchartrain. A hit from a strong cat 3 or 4 would send deep water even into the above sea level neighborhoods like the garden district and the french quarter--unlike Katrina. I also wonder if the soaking of all the ground in New Orleans would mean that the foundations of the tall buildings in the downtown are weakened. Katrina did not bring winds over 100 mph into the city itself--if Rita did I have a nasty feeling that some of the tall office buildings and hotels might come down.
yeah dash, thats why her motion speed will be key casue how far west she goes befor that trough comes will determione where she hits
personally i believe that trof is going to be a pretty large and if rita is far south in the gulf and is steered toward the US it may weaken...but thats a week away so im just guessing
st, thats cool but when u make a statement people might not understand that ur wishcasting and have not actually looked at the weater temps. it was 3weeks since katrina, thos temps are back up and most of the water she traversed was deep hot water called the gulf loop. her strength will be defined byu the shear and ry air not the sst
new ukmet also brings her to the texas mexico border
night all what this see what go on with TD 18 ok all and would i get will i see TD19 may be?
lefty after all of our bastardi bashing about a week ago i am in alot of agreement with what he is saying now about alot of things, which is something i never thought id say
bekoweather, oddly, of the 4 hurricanes to make landfall in the US in Novemer, ALL of them have hit Florida. That might be just luck, however--hurricane Kate in 1985 was a strong late November hurricane that hit the Florida panhandle Nov 21 1985. It was a 953 mb hurricane in the central gulf, but weakened to a 967 mb cat 2 as it went across the cooler water in the northern gulf. However, if she had hit a week or 2 earlier, the water might not have been cool enough to weaken her to a 2, and she could just as easily have hit Mobile, Biloxi or New Orleans instead of the PC beach area. For what it is worth, 3 of the four landfalling November hurricanes hit in years ending in 5--1925, Tampa, 1935 Miami, and 1985 panhandle.

No hurricane has ever made landfall in the US as a major hurricane in November, but given that the water everywhere is abnormally warm, and that Kate almost did it in the panhandle as late as Nov 21, AND how crazy this year has been--this just may be the year.
I actually have looked at the water temps, they have rebounded into the mid 80s but are not at the near 90 range they were when Katrina came.
lol ok man whatever. i don't care what he says. i won;t even go to accuweather and tunr the channel when he comeson fox. he rags the nhc and is a ahole
For what it is worth, 3 of the four landfalling November hurricanes hit in years ending in 5--1925, Tampa, 1935 Miami, and 1985 panhandle.

Now... this is called meteorogical arithmology...LOL, and I don't trust it.
I think it it harder for 86 degree water to support a cat 5--everything in the atmosphere has to be PERFECT. If water is 90, things can be a little off in the atmosphere and a hurricane can still get super strong.

Also lefty, anyone reading this blog knows that my predictionfs for hurricanes have ALWAYS been wrong LOL.
and 85 to 90 can sustaine a cat 5, the waters are not as explosive a sthey were so u won;t see that kind of development but the waters where 18 are now are in the 90-95 range all the way thru the floruida straights. she will be a cat 3 or higher when she hits the guld and 3 days crossing the gulf if the shear islight she will have no problem maintaining a cat 4 or cat 5
Bek, I would call it coincidence--arithmology makes it sound almost respectable ;-)
86 ismore than warm enoug to sustain a cat 5 and no mater the water temps things must alwasy be perfect to sustain a cat 5 regardless of sea temps. the higher the sea temps the more explosive the development cane be and we don;t need that ewater temps with the scenario thats playing out
yea he does rag the NHC but lately he has been saying that a hurricane would aid in the flipping of the current trof west/ridge east pattern and by looking at the latest computer models after the trof that picks rita up digs an eastern trof it is followed by another large plains/east trof...........that is what i agree with him about
but as i said 100 posts ago, i am not worried bout the gulf yet, my concern is the florida keys. she could be a cat 3 or higher as she hits the keys. remebr what happened last time a major huricane hit the keys, will wipe it out period
By the way, the water temps are recovering nicely off the GA coast--Ophelia knocked them down to 80.1 but they have been warming since and are now between 83-84
yeah this time of year it does not take long and ophelia was only a minimal cat 1 ir strong ts so she did noit take much energy from the ocean
i am really worried bout the keys though. they will start the evacs either tomm or monday morning. what a mess
The Keys are a worry, they were very lucky that when Katrina made her southwest movement into the Gulf that she did not hit Key West and they never called an evacuation there. They will have to call an evacuation tomorrow to get everyone out in time, won't they?
yeah i think thast why they diverted the recon misson, the need the data to put in the models to see hwat the strength and track will be
im ready for winter so there will be no more of this mess
lol, i am ready for winter casue i love snow
New Orleans is having a heat wave, temps 6-10 degrees above normal. That is just what water temps there don't need
lol yeah
atleast you get snow
lol thats why i live here. close to the tropics noirth enough to get lots of snow lol
I'd like to see some snow here :)
ha st simmons i think we saw just about the same amount last winter.......
We have had accumulating snow 3 times, 3.4" in feb 1895, 1.5" feb 1958 and 6.6" december 1989
with the greenhouse, I wonder if we will ever see snow again.
that december 89 storm must have been awesome, i was too young to remember it but it put down a foot at the coast of NC and SC
we get 20= inches every year where i live lol
stsimons i bet you will, just need a massive eastern trof to brew a storm like the 93 superstorm thats further off the coast
2 am advisory says the recon report will be from TD 18 shortly.
first recon is out. justa td so far. nothing new

URNT12 KNHC 180650
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/06:23:30Z
B. 21 deg 20 min N
071 deg 11 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 260 deg 007 kt
G. 184 deg 020 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 23 C/ 450 m
J. 23 C/ 424 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.03 / 5 nm
P. AF300 0118A CYCLONE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 21 KT SE QUAD 05:45:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 184 / 14NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Oh it was! We had a high that day of 24 at midnight, and the daytime max was 19! The snow was fine and powdery and stuck everywhere, and the ocean steamed. Thundersnow happened between 3 and 4:30 that morning. The snow accumulated for 15 hours. That whole month was cold, and the water temp after the storm went down to 39, the only time ever it has been in the 30s here.
The superstorm was scary, the low tracked just to our NW and we had sustained winds of 69 mph gusting to 95. The west winds blew out the water and it was 5 feet below normal tide--I thought about walking out on the sandbars but was worried about water suddenly rushing back so I did not. Snow flurries fell that afternoon, and the freezes the next two nights killed ALL the spring flowers here, which made for a sad spring.
Actually reading now about an extratropical storm in Jan 1989 that went about 300 miles off the coast, so no real damage. The pressure in that monster when it was 300 miles east of the Chesapeake was 937 mb! Wow!
Our pressure here in the superstorm fell to 28.86 the second lowest I have ever seen.
The latest IR image really shows and increse in convection, suprised the recon was so bland.
Thx for the recon data... can go to sleep now.
Good night all!
we had 30+ inches of snow from Superstorm 93....I was in WV at the time
.we had almosta foot of ice, sleet and freezing rain here in central va. school was out almost 3 weeks
Hello to all

I'm trying to get a location where all of our blogers live want to then make a directory that I will post on my blog
just looking for city (and maybe location in that city if it is large) and state..no other info needed or wanted..Thanks to all who will participate in this endevor..
tks...please make post on the first thread of my blog.
would like to include all that live outside of the states
also..will be interesting to see how wide spread our blogers are in the world..

please, if you can give the gift of life (blood),please contact your local Red Cross and make an appointment..the pint of blood you give my save 3 lives..and blood is really needed in the gulf coast..they lost their supply
of blood because of Katrina..and donors due to displacement..
tks to all
for the superstorm we had a violent band of thunderstorms go through at around 2 am. but the rest of the storm was cloudy and dry as we were in dry slot. The temp fell from 72 at 7 am to freezing by sunset.
yes there is a blow up in convection but it is still somewhat dissorginised. but its looking beter. cat 1 by 11pm tomm watch


philippe is looking good as well. cat 1 by 5pm tomm

going to bed now cath u guys tomm, my posting my be limited as i love football and tomm is football day lol
Calling it a night here too, see y'all tomorrow. Hope your teams win lefty!
Nite Lefty
Here comes Stan!
This is the beginning of the Grand Finale of the Hurricane season,

I do not think folks want to say this, but all points NO west need to watch Rita..

Phillipe looks to be blocked 4 days out and forced west, question is how far west?

IMHO, we may have 5 or 6 tropical cyclones to look at for the next 7 to 10 days.. Simply amazing and historic.

2 years ago today, we were getting lashed by Isabel. I hope next week at this time Phillipe pulls an Ophelia and doesn't want to get on land
942. lippy
Yikes, the GFS pushes landfall a bit north with each run. 6z is around Freeport, Texas at 168 hours. That's pretty much direct right front hit on Galveston.
hmmz looks like philepe is going east :S
I'm sticking with my original analysis from yesterday. We are now nearing late September, and one or more trofs will be coming across the plains, over the next week, which will weaken the High pressure ridge centered over Texas. the ridge will weaken over the north central gulf coast, and unfortunately turn Rita towards the north central gulf coast. Landfall most likely now in central or se LA coast as a cat 3. If rita gets past 91 degrees west at landfall possibly a strong cat 3 or 4. The dry continental air should get entrained as rita approaches coast, hopefully limiting strengthening.
Didnt' Katrina begin where Rita is now?
Yes Katrina began to get act together near same location. TD 18 will be a TS Rita by 11:00am advisory. Don't be suprised if winds or hear 55 mph sustained on that advisory. Satelite pics looking good with banding in all quadrants, good outflow.
I'm going to get some rest in order to be refreshed when I rejoin the blog this afternoon.
Good morning
I hope to be boarded up by the end of the day, as this storm heads through here, in The Bahamas. We have a hurricane watch in effect and are expecting up to 60 mph winds. I hope they don't call me in to work with the local national emergency team too soon, as I need to get my house secured and I have a one-year-old son who appears to sense that something is happening.
I am a photojournalist; but I was assigned to the agency a few times recently.
BTW ... The ants are coming inside my house like crazy, for those who believe in ant activity to determine storm presence :(
Actually I think Katrina formed as a TD about where Phillipe is and then fizzled out. I may be wrong but that's the best I can remember.
katrina formed jst east of the central bahamasse of nassau and went west and then sw over right over my section of miami dade county...i will never take a cat one lightly again as soon as watch goes up so do shutterrs ,,,katrina was the first and last time my steel shutters were never used in a storm.....
white - in Port St. Lucie - FLA
Amazingly, the local hardware stores are still not open here in NAssau :(
THey are allowed (and expected) to be closed on Sundays.
just got finished with my ins co and the trash has been cleaned up still have to put on new roof...cant find any roofers...and here comes rita same way katrina did...
woefully anticipating Rita to come near SWLA? I am new to all this, but I have learned a lot tracking storms the past few years. I lived through Andrew and Katrina (in Baton Rouge) and I don't know what SWLA will do if it is affected either directly or indirectly again. Which tracks are more reliable? The BAMM or GFS or GFDL? I know its too early to tell, but this high over texas will push down and turn the storm northward? I just read the discussion at nhs and it shows more of a westward movement throughout the storm... But the strike probs look like they r heading straight for LA. I remember the past few hurricanes that hit this area were usually turned north when they got around/near 90/25. Am I way off in thinking that? Thanks and I hope I can grow to understand more how climatology and how they predict where these storms are going...
Hi all,
I was surprised to see TD 18 named last night by NHC at 11:00 PM By the looks of the satelite it looked no more than a blob of clouds with a hints of lower level cirrulation. In contrast it took the NHC 1-2 days to classify TD 17. The point is that because of the closeness of the disturbance to the US I'm sure they had enough confidence in the models to upgrade it and to get the word out to Bahamas, South Florida, and Cuba ASAP. The local newscasts were not very serious of the disturbance at 6:00 PM and the NWS put out a special statement at 6:30 for it. I the goverment wants everybody to prepare as early as possible for a possible hurricane, since the Kritina disaster at end of August.
feel sorry for people who are in texas ....they fled new orleans...lok who will be knocking on there door next week..
looks like long range compuet progs put RITA as a cat 3/4 hiting central texas coast line south of houston next friday....
There is now Invest 97 SW of the Cape Verdes. It number is T1.0, but the NHC is calling for possible intensification. Can we all say hello Stan? Also, TD 18 has a classic appearance of a tropical storm, and I expect the next recon flight to find TS Rita.
great again 3 storms
i think there's a good chance we'll be using the greek alphabet for names this year.
southernskiesrnice,
We're in the same boat. I'm relatively new here and the models are confusing (especially that java site...) What I've gathered from using the site for a few weeks is at this point almost all the computer models are highly unreliable, as they shift dramatically from run to run. The GDFL, which everyone seems to put the most stock in, has been shifting from Mexico to Texas to Louisiana and back to Texas and then closer to Louisiana and so forth for the last 24 hours. Judging from the laughing response I got yesterday upon its mention, you can probably disregard the LBAR. The BAMM's been the most consistent over the last day, but it only works well for certain types of storms. During Katrina and Ophelia I remember people saying "the Bamm doesn't perform well for this type of storm". Don't have any idea if it performs well for Rita's type.

Bottom line, I think Katrina and Ophelia taught us not to put too much stock in the specifics of the models. They're analogous to guessing at this point, but if even one of them is pointed at you or near you, then start preparing as if they all were.

Perhaps when Lefty or Stormtop comes back he can explain which models are good for what.
i agree with that

Just a stupid question. What happens if we run out of
alphabet? Do they go next years list?

i watch the GOM storms close as My Mother in law lives on
the Florida Panhandle and I invest in energy stocks.
Yeh, Surfer Boy Steve Lyons just made comment on the impressive vis sat image. I think it's safe to say we'll have TS Rita within the hour. I don't think we'll be singing "Lovely Rita" when she's done...especially here in SWLA.
And as Stormtop said, we need to all be preparing for a hit anyone because for this particular storm we're in a Catch-22.

For Rita to miss the US, the Trof has to be weak.
Which means Philippe/Phillipe comes our way.

But I gotta stress, that's only how it looks today.
Ophelia was supposed to be looping into the Gulf at this time, and Katrina was supposed to be riding up central Florida into Georgia. Anything can happen. Don't be like me and not prepare until a day before the thing hits (Katrina) thanks to a surprise shift.
we go w/ the Greek alphabet if we run out of names. (Alpha,Beta,Gamma)
THen what after Omega? lol
i hav updated my blog
good point hyfynn....we live in SE FL and kept hearing that Katrina was going to make initial landfall way north of here. I am thankful to people on this message board for reminding me the models and local networks are not always right. I went out and prepared two full days before the hype. We did not put our shutters up though because it was only supposed to be a tropical storm. Trust me, I will never make that mistake again. As soon as a hurriane warning is posted, I will prepare the house.
When can we expect another update from Dr Masters?
971. amd
steve lyons was worried about rapid intensification with td19, and it's not like him to hype up 30 mph tropical depressions. If more convection becomes co-correlated with the developing center, then rapid intensification could begin in earnest.
loks like philipe is moving west
I agree...there are no inhibiting factors present to keep TD 18 from rapid intensification.
...257 That could be interesting!
Good morning. . .

Philippe looks better and td 18 is expected to become Rita by tonight. I am worried about a westward turn by Philippe towards the southeast coast. I have also been watching the cape verde wave. Tropics are really active now.

amd. . . did you mean td 18?
ya im sure he did
does someone agree its movings southwest? Link
There is dry air to its west but I don't think there will do much to it though. The new advisory should be out any minute.
Looks like the GFDL intensity model may be more correct than originally thought. This is going to continue to get extremely ugly if it makes it into the gulf. Forget about the fact that the SST's are down some since the Katrina time period, the Gulf of Mexico has a reputation for making storms very intense and sometimes unpredictable.
673
WTNT23 KNHC 181441
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY
TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.6N 73.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.2N 76.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 78.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.8N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB


$$


026
WTNT73 KNHC 181441
SPFAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

23.2N 76.2W 43 X X X 43 COCOA BEACH FL X X 8 4 12
23.7N 78.3W 14 16 1 X 31 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 3 5 8
23.8N 80.8W X 14 11 1 26 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4
MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 4 5 KEY WEST FL X 5 18 2 25
MUCM 214N 779W 8 6 1 X 15 MARCO ISLAND FL X 3 17 3 23
MUCF 221N 805W X 8 8 2 18 FT MYERS FL X 1 16 4 21
MUSN 216N 826W X X 7 7 14 VENICE FL X X 12 7 19
MUHA 230N 824W X 2 13 5 20 TAMPA FL X X 7 8 15
MUAN 219N 850W X X 1 12 13 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 8 10
MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 6 6 ST MARKS FL X X X 7 7
MBJT 215N 712W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 9 9
MYMM 224N 730W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 8 8
MYSM 241N 745W 45 X X X 45 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6
MYEG 235N 758W 47 X X X 47 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5
MYAK 241N 776W 23 11 X X 34 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5
MYNN 251N 775W 10 18 1 X 29 BURAS LA X X X 6 6
MYGF 266N 787W X 13 7 X 20 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 4 4
MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2
MARATHON FL X 11 14 1 26 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 10 11
MIAMI FL X 12 12 1 25 GULF 29N 87W X X X 10 10
W PALM BEACH FL X 7 12 2 21 GULF 28N 89W X X X 9 9
FT PIERCE FL X 2 12 2 16 GULF 28N 91W X X X 5 5

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


$$


...DEPRESSION ORGANIZING AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
According to wunderground Ophelia was real busy lastnight!
Link
Philippe is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph
...11 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and Philippe could become a
hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Does anyone have the discussion for 18 or Philippe yet.
i hav updated my blog
986. amd
yea, i meant td18. My bad.
so when this TD 18/ RIta appears close , I know jogs are possible, what are chance thechances that she could jog a touch north to Dade/broward counties...Florida Flicker & light goes out with a sneeze anyways
Florida flicker and light... lol
l0l Skyepony fastest Ts i ever seen :P
I know it may not be the immediate threat, but some of the models are pointing out that it may be possible for Phillippe to have a more westerly track in the 4-5 day range. Phillippe is expected to grow not only in intensity before that period, but also in size.
You Know CoconutCreek, thats true.....eve if we catch the brush of it, that will be the case Im In Ft. Lauderdale, last time was 3 days...Jeanne was 6...and now with all of the crews up north...We can forget it...Im not worried about storm damage, just no power for an extended period of time
Billsfan and I were joking about this the other day. Katrina hit way south of us and we both lost power around 5:30 p.m. Their infrastructure stinks.

I hadn't consider the fact that a lot of crews were up north. Good point
morning ya'll....hey CCFLA, I had to go back to read about "playing hurricane"...thanks! too cute!! (even when they're 14, they STILL play like that sometimes!)

re-read all of last night's post...regardless of 88889's situation, some of his posts were unacceptable, and with a twinge of guilt, I spammed quite a few of them.
Same here as far as the outage, 5:30PM on that thursday, and came back up 5 PM on sunday after the storm...Dont tell me, we on the same grid......LOL Im moving to OHIO on 10/15, I guess Im gonna go out with a bang.
Hi Aqua!
In 18's discussion, the NHC said that it could be reforming to the north and that they had to move the track northward.

Yeah CFLweather, I have always thought that Philippe's turn to the west was possible espically if it continues to move slow. The question is will this happen and if so, how far west will it go and how strong will it become.
We used to live near a hospital and were on the same grid. It was great b/c the power rarely went out and if it did it was back in no time.
just jumping in here this morning... Has anyone heard from lefty or stormtop on the status of TD 18 "rita"? Possible landfall cantral Gulf Coast???

Any comments are welcome...

Thanks
Makes me wonder if he may not be a muslim extremist gleefully hoping that more hurricanes hit the US.
1000. aquak9
new post-some one else can be first!
1001. AM91091
Jeff has made a new post