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Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
9:00 AM JST August 5 2013
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.8N 118.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 12.5N 116.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
1502. pottery
Quoting Chicklit:

Link Rainbow Loop looks promising

Yep, it looks promising.
I had said some days ago that Aug 10-15 was when I thought the rains would start in earnest.
I may get it right for a change !
1503. ncstorm
Quoting 1468. AussieStorm:
HAHAHAHAHA



I saw this and just had to share it.


where did you find bastardi pics?
Quoting 1486. Pallis:
While a noble thought, it has already been done. In the West it created the water wars where big cities are pitted against farmers for profit(cities win). In the East the same thing now, Georgia farmers who are by nature land greedy, beady eyed clay eaters suck up the water before it reaches Florida and the oysters and shrimp don't breed because of lack of fresh water and increased fertilizers.Every time we try to change the earth drastically we fail. Man, the worst thing to have ever visited the planet, coming to wreak havoc on your utopia soon.


With all due respect, not the same thing I'm talking about. What they've done in the West is the siphoning off of the very lifeblood of the Colorado and other rivers. The sad little river that Georgia, Alabama and Florida are fighting over has such terrible demands made on it every year, it probably literally could not rain hard enough in the Southeast to make the Chattahoochee satisfy all three states.

What I am talking about, on the other hand, is removal of excess water when it is at severe flood levels only. We may not know everything about everything yet, but we know roughly what a normal flood and dry cycle is, and that we ought to leave it alone. No flood at the right time of the year, and salt water intrudes too deep in the bays and estuaries, and predators kill the young oysters and eat off the bases of the bald cypress trees. I know how nature works.

But this year, here in Florida's Everglades we're having the worst wet season since 1968 -- and we haven't even had a hurricane yet. Florida Fish & Wildlife says we're close to conditions that in 1994 cost us 90% of our Everglades deer. IndianRiverGuy has been telling us for weeks about the manatee and dolphin kills from the extra water releases up his way.

Beyond all the screaming headlines, when can you remember the last really good farm crop for American farmers? When was the last time ranchers were selling in normal demand and not because they couldn't afford to feed their cattle in drought?

I just think water is something we could've saved ourselves a lot of money over if we'd gotten smart about it a couple decades ago. Just like it would've been great if America had really learned from the Arab Oil Embargo of the '70s that getting off our oil addiction might've been a really good thing. Now we can't seem to "buy" normal weather in the U.S. any more -- in any year. We don't need to repeat the mistakes of the past -- and that includes your examples about water in the Southwest. But it's hard for me to believe we can't do any better than just flushing billions of gallons of unwanted rainwater into marine environments that desperately don't want it either.

Wow... I'm on a tear tonight! Now it really IS time for supper. ...Sorry, Blog; we now return you to your local rainy/rainless weather!!


As we focus toward the Cape Verde season, every time I see this crazy CIMSS SAL chart I'm going to post this:

SAL is not simply just dust. And, the above CIMSS SAL graphic poorly depicts dust. Seems that bloggers often confuse that chart which most of the time more aptly represents large areas of dry air, not specifically and uniquely dust. SAL (Saharan Air Layer) may not even contain dust or have very little dust at times. And, certainly there are times when it can definitely have higher concentrations of dust. In such a heavy dust case, the CIMSS graphic would tend to show higher dust concentrations depicted in more pinkish colors instead of orange. The orange is often confused as representing a heavy saturation of dust which is not the case. The orange is mostly hot, dry air. See the CIMSS legend to note the differences.


SAL is, in fact, both a combination of various saturation amounts of dust accompanied by hot, dry air that comes from the Saharan desert north of the Sahel region of Africa. SAL can have hot, dry air without dust, but never dust without hot, dry air. SAL is more about hot, dry air from the Saharan desert than it is dust particularly. Dry, sinking air (subsidence) as we witnessed profusely with Dorian, is considerably more detrimental to cyclogenesis and to a storm's tropical maturity than is dust. Note, too, that dust generally occurs/is found most often in the mid-level 500mb layer which is not the primary cyclogenesis layer anyways. "This arrangement is an inversion where the temperature increases with height. The boundary between the SAL and the marine layer suppresses or "caps" any convection originating in the marine layer." (Wiki)

Please use EUMETSAT's dust graphic product to discern dust, or TAU's dust product (works most of the time) - both more credibly represent dust in the Atlantic basin than does CIMSS. Dust is depicted in pink in the Eumetsat graphic below.

EUMETSAT'S DUST GRAPHIIC





CIMSS does, however, have two other good graphics that better show mid and upper level water vapor saturations when discerning SAL.

MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR





UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR




IMO, this is a much better combination of graphics to discern a truer picture of dust, dry air.
Quoting pottery:

And snow was falling in southern Brasil last week.

Weirdness !


Down on the Snowy Mountains they had 50cm(19.69in) of snow in 48hrs.
Quoting 1453. JLPR2:


Not impossible but unlikely. There are a few spins in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trof but they tend to stay there. Now, if one grows strong enough to dominate the area or breaks free from the ITCZ, we might have something.


The CMC does have a possible TD forming in a few days.



And another one not long after



Although they don't amount to much afterwards and die out.

Wouldn't be surprised if we get a system or two in the next week or so though.
1508. Grothar
Quoting 1508. Grothar:


EUMETSAT'S DUST PRODUCT

1510. nigel20
Good evening all!



Current Weather Conditions:
Kingston / Norman Manley, Jamaica

Conditions at

2013.08.05 0200 UTC

Wind from the SE (140 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT)

Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)

Sky conditions mostly clear

Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 95.0 F (35.0 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 70%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
1511. Grothar
Quoting 1509. moonlightcowboy:





LOL You stole my globe. I gave up years ago trying to explain the different layers of the SAL and the implications on storm formation. Just let people post what they want and let them have fun.
Quoting 1511. Grothar:



LOL You stole my globe. I gave up years ago trying to explain the different layers of the SAL and the implications on storm formation. Just let people post what they want and let them have fun.



Thanks, Grothar, but I'll post as I please. ;)

Saying SAL and dry air is coming into the Atlantic is redundant and misleading, not a true interpretation of conditions at hand. SAL is dry air and contains various amounts of dust at times.
Quoting 1415. RitaEvac:
Getting that sinking feeling around here, first week of August and nuttin....just like every season, another season passing us on by with no beneficial rains. I don't believe we'll get a thing again here in TX

Think positive! Our storms are usually in September anyway. Rita...Humberto...Ike...
1514. beell
NHC had a little trouble separating the next tropical wave from the mid-level inverted trough across the central Atlantic-but I think they got it finally.

Probably a moot point as the Caribbean and Gulf still look hostile this week. Same strong subsident NE flow that did in Dorian still in place across the Gulf and another TUTT low north of PR/DR blasting most of the Caribbean with strong W/SW wind shear.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

A TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N32W
TO 10N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
AREA OF VERY DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS ALONG 40W FROM 24N TO 19N...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FEATURE IS COMING FROM THE
MID LATITUDES AND IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN 18 HOURS. THE MERGED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N35W TO 19N34W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
WITH A MID-LATITUDE SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE NW OF THE
WAVE FROM 18N40W TO 25N39W. WHILE NEITHER FEATURE EXHIBITS A
STRONG SIGNAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN GLOBAL MODEL
DATA...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH EACH ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUE A
WESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES REACHING 60W BY
MONDAY.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N36W TO 19N38W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITH
MID-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED TO THE NW OF THE WAVE IN
THE VICINITY OF 21N46W. WHILE NEITHER FEATURE EXHIBITS A STRONG
SIGNAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUE A WESTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES REACHING 60W BY MONDAY


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013

A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N38W TO 21N40W MOVING W AT
ABOUT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS PART OF A LARGER AREA OF OVERALL BROAD
TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS COUPLED WITH MID-
LATITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED TO THE NW OF THE WAVE IN THE
VICINITY OF 21N47W. WHILE NEITHER FEATURE EXHIBITS A STRONG
SIGNAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUE A FAIRLY RAPID
WESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES REACHING 60W BY
TUE.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH OF
23N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE STANDS
OUT IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURVES ALONG 18N58W 21N52W 19N44W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 36W AND 59W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W.
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

Quoting txjac:


It looks like it will cost the average household about 25-30 cents a day ...and you will hear the complaining!

Just throw this back at them:
"While desalinating 1,000 US gallons (3,800 l; 830 imp gal) of water can cost as much as $3, the same amount of bottled water costs $7,945"

Above statement in bold is compliments of Wiki


and most bottled water is just plain tap water. You pay for the bottle and the name. Also How much oil goes into making 1 bottle?
Quoting 1514. beell:

Same strong subsident NE flowe that did in Dorian still in place across the Gulf and another TUTT low north of PR/DR blasting most of the Caribbean with strong W/SW wind shear.



Exactly, Beell. Thanks.

Vorticity on the increase within the ITCZ nearer South America.

Hello WU, I'm a new poster but have been following hurricanes for a few years now. I have always been fascinated by extreme weather and have experienced almost everything EXCEPT a hurricane.

With that being said, I was wondering if anyone could give me links to where you get all your information on models, forecasts, radar etc. It would be greatly appreciated.

1519. Grothar
Quoting 1512. moonlightcowboy:



Thanks, Grothar, but I'll post as I please. ;)

Saying SAL and dry air is coming into the Atlantic is redundant and misleading, not a true interpretation of conditions at hand. SAL is dry air and contains various amounts of dust at times.


I was just joshing with you cowboy. But if that's your attitude you won't have to worry about me posting to you anymore.
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

GIL IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...FOR NOW. A SMALL BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS AND A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THAT
TIME FRAME. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REINTENSIFICATION SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT GIL COULD MAKE A COMEBACK IN SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS SMALL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT
THAT LONG. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
LIES BETWEEN THE HWRF AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION...255/7...CONTINUES. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GIL...OR ITS REMNANT
LOW...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS NOT
FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE
ECMWF MODEL PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.0N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.6N 138.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 13.0N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 12.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 12.4N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z 12.5N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z 12.5N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z 12.5N 153.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

1521. Grothar
Good Night everybody.


TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

HENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...VISIBLE AND
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE
BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
CLOUD PATTERN DOES STILL SHOW SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 45 KT...WHICH IS ON THE
LOW END OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO
BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS
COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON
THE LOW SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7
KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY
WHEN THE STORM APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...
INDUCED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A
TURN BACK TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 12.0N 127.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 12.2N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 12.8N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 14.2N 133.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 15.5N 136.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Quoting 1519. Grothar:


I was just joshing with you cowboy. But if that's your attitude you won't have to worry about me posting to you anymore.



I like you just fine, Grothar. You're a good poster, informative and jovial. Just don't tell me what to and not to post, please. I mean, your statement was ambiguous even. I, too, can have fun posting you know! ;)
Quoting 1521. Grothar:
Good Night everybody.



Hi Grothar...with the patterns setting up...could TX have a storm this year? This is going on 5 years we have had nothing.
1525. nigel20
Quoting 1521. Grothar:
Good Night everybody.



Good night Gro!
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



I like you just fine, Grothar. You're a good poster, informative and jovial. Just don't tell me what to and not to post, please, either. I mean, your statement was ambiguous even. I can have fun posting too you know! ;)


I think you took what Gro said the wrong way. He means no matter how often it is said that SAL and Dry air is talked about on here. People don't really care and post whatever they want about SAL and dry air. Even though what you showed was right.
Quoting Grothar:
Good Night everybody.




Gute Nacht Grothar


I'll be back later. My AVG is scanning so best I leave it be.
1528. Grothar
Quoting 1523. moonlightcowboy:



I like you just fine, Grothar. You're a good poster, informative and jovial. Just don't tell me what to and not to post, please, either. I mean, your statement was ambiguous even. I can have fun posting too you know! ;)


As long as you do the same. Even if it were ambiguous, you should know me better by now. I don't tell people what to think, write, post or even assume.
1529. Grothar
Quoting 1524. Stormchaser121:

Hi Grothar...with the patterns setting up...could TX have a storm this year? This is going on 5 years we have had nothing.


I hope you get enough to wet you all down some. Nothing big though.
Quoting 1510. nigel20:
Good evening all!



Current Weather Conditions:
Kingston / Norman Manley, Jamaica

Conditions at

2013.08.05 0200 UTC

Wind from the SE (140 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT)

Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)

Sky conditions mostly clear

Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 95.0 F (35.0 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 70%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)


Nice radar!!
Quoting 1526. AussieStorm:


I think you took what Gro said the wrong way. He means no matter how often it is said that SAL and Dry air is talked about on here. People don't really care and post whatever they want about SAL and dry air. Even though what you showed was right.


I like Gro. Got no problem with him, none at all. But, he said "let people post what they want" as if I had any say in what people post, LOL. And, does his statement not include me posting what I want as well? ;) Goofy. I won't waste any more time over it. If he wants to be childish sobeit.
1532. Grothar
Quoting 1525. nigel20:

Good night Gro!


Good night, Nigel.
Quoting 1528. Grothar:


As long as you do the same. Even if it were ambiguous, you should know me better by now. I don't tell people what to think, write, post or even assume.


Grothar, show me a single post where I've told anyone to post or not post anything? You can't, cause I haven't. Now, let's stop this crap or take it off line and talk about it, please. The blog is not the place.

Thanks, and peace out!
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


I like Gro. Got no problem with him, none at all. But, he said "let people post what they want" as if I had any say in what people post, LOL. And, does his statement not include me posting what I want as well? ;) Goofy. I won't waste any more time over it. If he wants to be childish sobeit.

I'm not here to make friends. I'm here to discuss tropical weather, nothing more/less.


geez dude, chill. Your talking all hostile. Relax.

Of course you can say whatever you want, no one can stop you.
Good Night All! Should get very interesting at the end of the week , and especially next week on !
Quoting 1509. moonlightcowboy:


EUMETSAT'S DUST PRODUCT

The Wave train has left the station, destined for the Caribbean, Gulf or Atlantic.

1537. nigel20
Quoting 1530. Slamguitar:


Nice radar!!

Yeah, but it's not yet fully functional! Here's the link: Jamaican radar
Quoting 1518. OminousBlackClouds:
Hello WU, I'm a new poster but have been following hurricanes for a few years now. I have always been fascinated by extreme weather and have experienced almost everything EXCEPT a hurricane.

With that being said, I was wondering if anyone could give me links to where you get all your information on models, forecasts, radar etc. It would be greatly appreciated.



Easiest way is whenever someone posts a chart you like, then ask for the link. That's what I do. Saying that,
Tropical Tidbits
there's a start for you, others here have a lot more resources than I do.
1539. vis0
CREDIT: Imagery provided courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory Monterey
The next 2 month trend begins FULLY in 2-3 days.
For CLUEs as to how i use the word "trend" as to a science i call Galacsics please read this blogbit on my wxu blog.
Quoting 1518. OminousBlackClouds:
Hello WU, I'm a new poster but have been following hurricanes for a few years now. I have always been fascinated by extreme weather and have experienced almost everything EXCEPT a hurricane.

With that being said, I was wondering if anyone could give me links to where you get all your information on models, forecasts, radar etc. It would be greatly appreciated.



Ominous, good blog handle btw! ;) Jump in where you can and contribute. There's some interesting bloggers here with lots of tropical knowledge. I have a "Tropical" bookmark folder created and copy links/graphics posted for future reference. I've got tons of them that I've accumulated over the years. And, most people are very willing to share links, etc.

Another good place to start that has a variety of good links is at stormjunkie.com. Stormjunkie is also very involved with Portlight Strategies, a non-profit group created by a few bloggers here to help in the aftermath of storms, disasters. Good group. :)

And, then of course, too, there's WU's own tropical page full of a variety of links to various tropical related sites, graphics, etc.


Welcome to the fray! ;) But it's a good place the majority of the time!
Quoting 1538. Astrometeor:


Easiest way is whenever someone posts a chart you like, then ask for the link. That's what I do. Saying that,
Tropical Tidbits
there's a start for you, others here have a lot more resources than I do.


You know what peeves me? When people hide every single URL under imgur or tinypic. Luckily I have most of what gets posted, but on the rare times where I don't, it really pisses me off. :P
Quoting 1518. OminousBlackClouds:
Hello WU, I'm a new poster but have been following hurricanes for a few years now. I have always been fascinated by extreme weather and have experienced almost everything EXCEPT a hurricane.

With that being said, I was wondering if anyone could give me links to where you get all your information on models, forecasts, radar etc. It would be greatly appreciated.


Welcome to WU!

This site has most of everything you've asked for, and then some.
Quoting 1518. OminousBlackClouds:
Hello WU, I'm a new poster but have been following hurricanes for a few years now. I have always been fascinated by extreme weather and have experienced almost everything EXCEPT a hurricane.

With that being said, I was wondering if anyone could give me links to where you get all your information on models, forecasts, radar etc. It would be greatly appreciated.



Welcome!

We don't bite... too much. ;)

:P
1544. beell
Quoting 1518. OminousBlackClouds:
Hello WU, I'm a new poster but have been following hurricanes for a few years now. I have always been fascinated by extreme weather and have experienced almost everything EXCEPT a hurricane.

With that being said, I was wondering if anyone could give me links to where you get all your information on models, forecasts, radar etc. It would be greatly appreciated.



OBC, I use this one several times a day. Indispensable.
Quoting 1542. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Welcome to WU!

This site has most of everything you've asked for, and then some.


Woah...thanks Cody!

Quoting 1541. KoritheMan:


You know what peeves me? When people hide every single URL under imgur or tinypic. Luckily I have most of what gets posted, but on the rare times where I don't, it really pisses me off. :P


imgur? That's just cruel. The source of the picture is worth half the data for a lot of people. Unless the picture is coming from your own computer, but then that would be noted.
Quoting 1541. KoritheMan:


You know what peeves me? When people hide every single URL under imgur or tinypic. Luckily I have most of what gets posted, but on the rare times where I don't, it really pisses me off. :P

I'd rather people archive images to be honest. It helps in the off-season when you're reading past blogs!
1547. ncstorm
Quoting 1541. KoritheMan:


You know what peeves me? When people hide every single URL under imgur or tinypic. Luckily I have most of what gets posted, but on the rare times where I don't, it really pisses me off. :P


you will be alright..

I post from Tinypic..oh well..
1548. nigel20
Henriette
1549. SLU
Quoting 1484. pottery:

By November ???
Gee, thanks !

But seriously, this is one very strange WetSeason for us here.
I've never seen the Caribbean and the GOM so cloud free for so long at this time of year.
And the Atlantic looks dead right now, and for the next couple of weeks at least.


Yes the Caribbean has been extremely hot and dry this season so far. Very strange. I hope that's not a sign for later on.
The upgraded HWRF model intensifies Henriette into a major hurricane.

So much for reliable... :\

Quoting 1547. ncstorm:


you will be alright..

I post from Tinypic..oh well..


I didn't ask you. :P
1552. etxwx
With the tropics kinda quiet, if you need something to watch, it's almost time for the the Perseid meteor shower.

PERSEID FIREBALLS: New research by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office shows that among all annual meteor showers the Perseids are the #1 source of fireballs. The first Perseid fireballs of 2013 are arriving now. Earth is entering a stream of debris from parent comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle, and meteoroids are hitting the top of the atmosphere at 135,000 mph.

The maximum is coming. Meteor rates should remain low for the next week as Earth penetrates the sparse outskirts of the debris stream, then skyrocket to ~100 meteors per hour as the calendar turns to the second week of August. Forecasters expect maximum Perseid activity on the nights of August 12-13.


Additional info at EarthSky’s meteor shower guide for 2013
Quoting 1544. beell:


OBC, I use this one several times a day. Indispensable.

! You!

Link
Does he ever age?....Just last year...

Because TA13 and wxchaser97 won't answer this question seriously, I really need to know when the next development could occurs. What are the models hinting at?
Quoting 1544. beell:


OBC, I use this one several times a day. Indispensable.



Trip, Beell. Trip. Rick-rolled! ;P
1557. ncstorm
Quoting 1551. KoritheMan:


I didn't ask you. :P


you dont tell me what I can post to Kori..LOL..
Quoting 1557. ncstorm:


you dont tell me what I can post to Kori..LOL..


Yes I do. :P
Quoting 1549. SLU:


Yes the Caribbean has been extremely hot and dry this season so far. Very strange. I hope that's not a sign for later on.


Wel,not in PR as we are way above normal in the rainfall so far this year.
Quoting 1555. Bluestorm5:
Because TA13 and wxchaser97 won't answer this question seriously, I really need to know when the next development could occurs. What are the models hinting at?


Did you expect an honest answer from those two in chat?
Quoting 1560. Astrometeor:


Did you expect an honest answer from those two in chat?
No, but I did anyway. They gave me "we'll get something by 2014" answer... I was being serious, guys.
Quoting 1558. KoritheMan:


Yes I do. :P

Do you think TX will get something this season? We need some rain over here!!
1563. SLU
Quoting 1559. Tropicsweatherpr:


Wel,not in PR as we are way above normal in the rainfall so far this year.


Ok. Since Chantal the weather here has been more like May with loads of SAL and hot days with few clouds and rainfall.
Quoting 1562. Stormchaser121:

Do you think TX will get something this season? We need some rain over here!!


I don't know, lol. I would hope the TX/LA area does, because I want my hurricane chase.

But hoping doesn't send or deter hurricanes, so whatever. :P
I live in southern Florida. May have to deal with a few tropical threats this year.
Quoting 1564. KoritheMan:


I don't know, lol. I would hope the TX/LA area does, because I want my hurricane chase.

But hoping doesn't send or deter hurricanes, so whatever. :P


I live in southern Florida. May have to deal with a few tropical threats this year.
Quoting 1563. SLU:


Ok. Since Chantal the weather here has been more like May with loads of SAL and hot days with few clouds and rainfall.


In the hot part you are right as the hazy conditions bring much warmer temperatures. And it has rained less too with all the sal around. But once it clears,things will turn moist in Caribbean as ITCZ lifts northward.
Quoting 1564. KoritheMan:


I don't know, lol. I would hope the TX/LA area does, because I want my hurricane chase.

But hoping doesn't send or deter hurricanes, so whatever. :P

We are on the same page I want my chase too! Been waiting on it since 2008.
Not weather related...but nothing going on...Press will be happy to know that Art Bell is coming back to radio!

Ominous, this is one of the coolest links I've found lately. It's a CONUS map of surface winds from all over the country and as forecast. If you click on the map you can even zoom in closer. There's an "unzoom" button on the upper left-hand side that will appear after you do some zooming.


CONUS WIND MAP
1571. nigel20
Quoting 1559. Tropicsweatherpr:


Wel,not in PR as we are way above normal in the rainfall so far this year.

Hi Tropics! It has been very dry in eastern Jamaica, but the opposite is occurring in central and western Jamaica.
Quoting 1552. etxwx:
With the tropics kinda quiet, if you need something to watch, it's almost time for the the Perseid meteor shower.

PERSEID FIREBALLS: New research by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office shows that among all annual meteor showers the Perseids are the #1 source of fireballs. The first Perseid fireballs of 2013 are arriving now. Earth is entering a stream of debris from parent comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle, and meteoroids are hitting the top of the atmosphere at 135,000 mph.

The maximum is coming. Meteor rates should remain low for the next week as Earth penetrates the sparse outskirts of the debris stream, then skyrocket to ~100 meteors per hour as the calendar turns to the second week of August. Forecasters expect maximum Perseid activity on the nights of August 12-13.


Additional info at EarthSky’s meteor shower guide for 2013


In the last several years that I have watched the meteor showers, I have found that you never reach the 100/hour mark. Never happens. The AF radio radar or whatever might hear that much, but for city or town observers, those numbers aren't realistic. We get usually 20/hr, tops.
1573. beell
GFS does show a big slug of convective feedback moving out of the Caribbean towards the gulf coast.

200 hrs though. Probably dovetails right in to Levi's latest post.

Time to go.
Quoting 1568. Stormchaser121:

We are on the same page I want my chase too! Been waiting on it since 2008.


What, you mean Don didn't work out for you? Oh wait, he literally evaporated at the coast.

Or hey, what about Lee? Oh shoot, I forgot; he just modulated your already oppressive heat and wildfire situation.

Okay, I see what you mean now. :P
Quoting 1566. mitchelace5:


I live in southern Florida. May have to deal with a few tropical threats this year.


Miami?
Quoting 1550. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The upgraded HWRF model intensifies Henriette into a major hurricane.

So much for reliable... :\

Quoting 1550. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The upgraded HWRF model intensifies Henriette into a major hurricane.

So much for reliable... :\

You never know it might.
1577. sar2401
Quoting MSAussie:
I posted this question earlier but did not get an answer. Maybe someone on the night crew can answer it.

"How is an analog year chosen for a particular season? I have seen references to a few of them for this year and am curious as to how they chose a year. Is it based on historical data if so how what historical data is used?"

Thanks

I've never seen an analogue year chosen "officially". It's done by forecasters, both pros and amateurs with the idea there is some year in the past that sufficiently like this year that we can do some prediction about the season based on the analogue year. I've never seen any track record for how well this worked out, but you can take things like the postilion of the A-B high, general SAL patterns, stability of the general atmosphere, SST, trade winds, number or lack thereof of early storms, intensity of strums, and a lot of "hunches". I personally think it's hooey. There are so many variables in a six month period covering half the globe that I don't think we even have half a clue as to what would make this season like any other past season. The only thing that makes any sense is the passages of time. Climatology tells there should be a certain number of stroms by about a certain date. If we're below that number, and current climate factors are clear that the situation will continue, we can make a decent guess it will be an average or less than average year in terms of the number of storms. If we've had more than the average number of storms with the same criteria, we can make a reasonable guess that we will have an above average season, again in terms of the number of storms only. We don't even have a clue as to what intensity in any previous year predicts for this year. I just keep an eye out, maintain my preparedness measures, and take it as it comes. All the rest of it is just talk when we're bored and want to find some kind of crystal ball. :-)
1578. DDR
We are -12 inches or so here in Trinidad,well at the airport at least.
1579. geepy86
Quoting KoritheMan:


Miami?
Quoting mitchelace5:


I live in southern Florida. May have to deal with a few tropical threats this year.

key west?
Quoting 1569. GeoffreyWPB:
Not weather related...but nothing going on...Press will be happy to know that Art Bell is coming back to radio!
I thought he died.
Guess not...but it would be fitting if he returned to broadcasting after he really does die.
.
.
and Beell...1514:)...you troublemaker.
Quoting 1569. GeoffreyWPB:
Not weather related...but nothing going on...Press will be happy to know that Art Bell is coming back to radio!



No one remembers Art Bell and his bumper music on Coast To Coast AM? Catchy tune, nice hook and the number one song played on Muzak.
1582. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


What, you mean Don didn't work out for you? Oh wait, he literally evaporated at the coast.

Or hey, what about Lee? Oh shoot, I forgot; he just modulated your already oppressive heat and wildfire situation.

Okay, I see what you mean now. :P

Kori, for some reason, I always think of you if you had been chasing in 2004. Ivan would have made a perfect chase, came ashore in Alabama as a cat 3, was a cat 1 all the way to Montgomery, and was a TD until it got Virginia. Also produced 117 tornadoes, so you would have had a good hurricane and tornado chase. Probably one of the few storms that had classic coastal hurricane damage and hurricane-like damage so far inland. Might have been a little hard to get around, with just about every road flooded or blocked by downed trees, and basically no electricity anywhere in Alabama, but, with ingenuity and about eight jerry cans of gas, you probably could have done it. :-)
Quoting 1574. KoritheMan:


What, you mean Don didn't work out for you? Oh wait, he literally evaporated at the coast.

Or hey, what about Lee? Oh shoot, I forgot; he just modulated your already oppressive heat and wildfire situation.

Okay, I see what you mean now. :P

Yeahhhhh lol
1584. sar2401
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No one remembers Art Bell and his bumper music on Coast To Coast AM? Catchy tune, nice hook and the number one song played on Muzak.

How can one forget Art Bell? He's been one of the true pioneers in late night AM radio, has been on shortwave, and he's a ham radio operator. He's also certifiably insane, but that's part of what makes him interesting...kind of like reading a Dr. Bronner's soap label. :-)
Quoting 1571. nigel20:

Hi Tropics! It has been very dry in eastern Jamaica, but the opposite is occurring in central and western Jamaica.
Hey what's up Nigel, how's the weather tonight in Jamaica? How you like that lix Guyana put on Jamaica in the CPL?

Quoting 1577. sar2401

Thanks for taking the time Sar...I have seen time and time again on here and elsewhere "that is just what X did or that is where Y formed or omg its another Z" and I am sitting here thinking that the conditions are never exactly the same so the odds that another exact occurrence of the same would be almost impossible. So that led to wondering how are they picking a particular year as an analog?

I understand that statistically there should be x storms and generally if the high pressure does not pull back and there is limited shear and conditions are good then x number of storms will make it to the US.

I wondered if I was missing something when people were talking about analog years....kind of like the moon is full, the tide is high, its Wednesday and the buffalo sneezed last week in Africa so the season will be exactly like 2003.


Again thanks for taking the time.

Sorry messed up the quote some how there.
1587. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


In the last several years that I have watched the meteor showers, I have found that you never reach the 100/hour mark. Never happens. The AF radio radar or whatever might hear that much, but for city or town observers, those numbers aren't realistic. We get usually 20/hr, tops.

The Persieds have been pretty disappointing the last few years, so I hope we get a decent one this year. I have seen 100 an hour nights with the Persieds, but that was in the Nevada desert, about 40 miles from any artificial light and over 140 miles from Vegas, which was just a dim glow on the far horizon. If you want the best spot in the US to watch, head south on NV State Highway 375 from US 6, the "Extraterrestrial Highway", and go about 45 miles until you reach Queen City Summit. It's at a little less than 6,000 feet, always comfortable even after a really hot day, and the famous Area 51 is about 30 miles away, so you might see something spooky from that direction also. Big highway department turnout and laydown area there, and you can get about 300 yards off the road, which never sees more than one car an hour after midnight anyway. Roll out your sleeping bag and enjoy. :-)
#1577

Well said, Sar. Agreed.
Don't know if I ever seen the ridge displaced that far north before.

August storm origins

Quoting 1590. moonlightcowboy:
August storm origins



I know the one over Louisiana is Beryl of 1988, but... what is that over the Florida panhandle?


Night blog.

@sar, visited Bluewater State Park in New Mexico last year. Really windy, but nice sky.
1593. sar2401
Quoting MSAussie:

Quoting 1577. sar2401

Thanks for taking the time Sar...I have seen time and time again on here and elsewhere "that is just what X did or that is where Y formed or omg its another Z" and I am sitting here thinking that the conditions are never exactly the same so the odds that another exact occurrence of the same would be almost impossible. So that led to wondering how are they picking a particular year as an analog?

I understand that statistically there should be x storms and generally if the high pressure does not pull back and there is limited shear and conditions are good then x number of storms will make it to the US.

I wondered if I was missing something when people were talking about analog years....kind of like the moon is full, the tide is high, its Wednesday and the buffalo sneezed last week in Africa so the season will be exactly like 2003.


Again thanks for taking the time.

Sorry messed up the quote some how there.

No problem. I'm sure there are some that believe they have a workable formula to scare up an analogue year, but I sure don't. I suspect that, if these predictions were tracked, they wouldn't turn out to be much better than chance, so I tend not to pay much attention to them until some one can prove there's come validity to these kind of predictions.
1594. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


Night blog.

@sar, visited Bluewater State Park in New Mexico last year. Really windy, but nice sky.

GN, Astro. You're not going to stay up an watch DMax? :-) Yeah, it can get a little windy in the desert, but you can't find better star watching anywhere in the lower 48.
August historical prevailing average for tracks

Quoting 1593. sar2401:

No problem. I'm sure there are some that believe they have a workable formula to scare up an analogue year, but I sure don't. I suspect that, if these predictions were tracked, they wouldn't turn out to be much better than chance, so I tend not to pay much attention to them until some one can prove there's come validity to these kind of predictions.


That's why I always use the word "if".

Always use the word "if", guys. ;)
1597. nigel20
Quoting 1585. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey what's up Nigel, how's the weather tonight in Jamaica? How you like that lix Guyana put on Jamaica in the CPL?

Lol. We'll get you guys in the Jamaican leg. Today was very hot and hazy. We had very few clouds.
1598. JLPR2
Hmm... right now the weak ITCZ disturbance is the only game in town.



And it isn't a very good one. :|

Come on 2013! I want a nice hurricane, a cat 5 if it's possible recurving while looking awesome.

*crosses fingers*
its august here in the northeast.. its feel like october weather outside tonightthe temp in new haven is 61f maybe going down to 55F TONIGHT!
1601. JLPR2
SSTs anomalies are now making a comeback in the CATL, seems the effects of the last SAL outbreak will be short lived.

WOW!! MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST!!
Quoting 1600. hurricanes2018:
its august here in the northeast.. its feel like october weather outside tonightthe temp in new haven is 61f maybe going down to 55F TONIGHT!


62 degrees here in central Il .. normally it would still be 80 or higher this time of year ..
Quoting 1589. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Don't know if I ever seen the ridge displaced that far north before.


Quoting 1599. moonlightcowboy:


Agnes, '72



Agnes occurred in June.
1606. nigel20
Quoting sar2401:

How can one forget Art Bell? He's been one of the true pioneers in late night AM radio, has been on shortwave, and he's a ham radio operator. He's also certifiably insane, but that's part of what makes him interesting...kind of like reading a Dr. Bronner's soap label. :-)


He's coming back, to Sirius radio. Don't know exactly when.
Quoting 1599. moonlightcowboy:


Agnes, '72



I thought Agnes of 1972 was in June not August.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GIL AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE...BOTH LOCATED FAR TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE WEEK. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/MAYERS
NNNN
1610. nigel20
Henriette is looking a lot better ATM.
Quoting 1605. wxgeek723:


Agnes occurred in June.



Apologies, folks. It definitely was June. Late, I must be getting cross-eyed. ;)
It's all good. I shouldn't be up either. Although working on Sunday means no work Monday--hopefully. Watching a rare summer cold front just to my north.





Issued: Aug 04, 2013 8:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on tropical depression Gil, located 1250 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii, under AWIPS header tcpep2 and WMO header WTPA32 KNHC. Gil is expected to cross 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday evening.
Dorian is still alive. I predict that he will cross the North Atlantic then circle back past England and Spain before resuming his course back to the GOM.
Quoting 1581. GeoffreyWPB:


No one remembers Art Bell and his bumper music on Coast To Coast AM? Catchy tune, nice hook and the number one song played on Muzak.


Awww, when I moved back to Calif from Colorado 20 years ago, was living up by Joshua Tree NP, and could only get 1 tv station at the time, so spent most the time listening to the radio, and he'd always be on after work, Sunday nights I think it was, was always interesting! Thought he'd be living in an underground, survival bunker by now! haha
Quoting 1591. KoritheMan:


I know the one over Louisiana is Beryl of 1988, but... what is that over the Florida panhandle?


Here we go: Charley, 1986.

1619. JLPR2
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 10N24W 10N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
STARTS NEAR 10N30W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N40W TO 07N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 16W-
31W...FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 36W-45W AS WELL AS FROM 05N-09N
BETWEEN 49W-54W.

Not bad, still, it's a little low for August.
This video MUST have been made by one of the bloggers here...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sICaV6VKI6I&featur e=youtube_gdata_player


...the crow just keeps coming back.
What a strange storm Hurricane Charley was.
Quoting 1587. sar2401:

The Persieds have been pretty disappointing the last few years, so I hope we get a decent one this year. I have seen 100 an hour nights with the Persieds, but that was in the Nevada desert, about 40 miles from any artificial light and over 140 miles from Vegas, which was just a dim glow on the far horizon. If you want the best spot in the US to watch, head south on NV State Highway 375 from US 6, the "Extraterrestrial Highway", and go about 45 miles until you reach Queen City Summit. It's at a little less than 6,000 feet, always comfortable even after a really hot day, and the famous Area 51 is about 30 miles away, so you might see something spooky from that direction also. Big highway department turnout and laydown area there, and you can get about 300 yards off the road, which never sees more than one car an hour after midnight anyway. Roll out your sleeping bag and enjoy. :-)


Despite having awesome, dark skies here...always ends up cloudy through showers! haha Summer months never good anyway though, as have twilight all night. Getting better in Aug, but not til after midnight is it proper dark still.
Quoting 1621. DonnieBwkGA:
What a strange storm Hurricane Charley was.


"Hurricane Charley was the costliest tropical cyclone of the 1986 Atlantic hurricane season. The third tropical storm and second hurricane of the season, Charley formed as a subtropical low on August 13 along the Florida panhandle. After moving off the coast of South Carolina, the system transitioned into a tropical cyclone and intensified into a tropical storm on August 15. Charley later attained hurricane status before moving across eastern North Carolina. It gradually weakened over the north Atlantic Ocean before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on August 20. Charley's remnants remained identifiable for over a week until after crossing the British Isles and dissipating on August 30.

The storm brought light to moderate precipitation to much of the southeastern United States. In Georgia and South Carolina, the rainfall alleviated drought conditions. In North Carolina, where the hurricane made landfall, tidal flooding and downed trees were the primary impact. The storm brought high winds to southeastern Virginia, where 110,000 people were left without power. Minor damage extended along the Atlantic coastline northward through Massachusetts. One traffic fatality was reported each in North Carolina and Virginia. Three people in Maryland died due to a plane crash related to the storm. Throughout the United States, Hurricane Charley caused an estimated $15 million in damage (1986 USD). One person drowned in Newfoundland." ~ (Wiki)
Quoting 1569. GeoffreyWPB:
Not weather related...but nothing going on...Press will be happy to know that Art Bell is coming back to radio!



Wasn't he always playing 'Midnight at the Oasis'?
I'm out. Y'all have a great Monday.
August 1st-10th origins





August 11th-20th origins





August 21st-31st origins



Quoting 1626. moonlightcowboy:
August 1st-10th origins





August 11th-20th origins





August 21st-31st origins




With how things are setting up its going to be an interesting August
Quoting 1627. wunderkidcayman:

With how things are setting up its going to be an interesting August

I hope TX gets something. We need rain.
1629. pcola57
A Wet July for the Eastern U.S.
July was a very wet month for the Eastern U.S., with parts of North Carolina through Florida receiving in excess of a foot of rainfall - up to 600% of their normal rainfall totals. A stationary weather system earlier in the month provided much needed rains to central Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Out West, dry conditions persisted, further exacerbating the droughts and fire weather in those areas. This image was generated using data from the NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service's array of radar and rain gauge observations for July 1-31, 2013. Later this month, the NOAA National Climatic Data Center will release statistics on July's precipitation totals and historical rankings."
1630. VR46L
Quoting 1623. moonlightcowboy:


"Hurricane Charley was the costliest tropical cyclone of the 1986 Atlantic hurricane season. The third tropical storm and second hurricane of the season, Charley formed as a subtropical low on August 13 along the Florida panhandle. After moving off the coast of South Carolina, the system transitioned into a tropical cyclone and intensified into a tropical storm on August 15. Charley later attained hurricane status before moving across eastern North Carolina. It gradually weakened over the north Atlantic Ocean before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on August 20. Charley's remnants remained identifiable for over a week until after crossing the British Isles and dissipating on August 30.

The storm brought light to moderate precipitation to much of the southeastern United States. In Georgia and South Carolina, the rainfall alleviated drought conditions. In North Carolina, where the hurricane made landfall, tidal flooding and downed trees were the primary impact. The storm brought high winds to southeastern Virginia, where 110,000 people were left without power. Minor damage extended along the Atlantic coastline northward through Massachusetts. One traffic fatality was reported each in North Carolina and Virginia. Three people in Maryland died due to a plane crash related to the storm. Throughout the United States, Hurricane Charley caused an estimated $15 million in damage (1986 USD). One person drowned in Newfoundland." ~ (Wiki)


Charley in 1986 is I believe the main reason I track hurricanes . I was 11 when Charley hit as a Massive extropical storm not on the same scale as Sandy but huge .It killed 11 people over here massive flooding gales electric the works . Its also why I fear these storms . I joke I track the fish but I guess thats why I so interested, because what charley did to Ireland at the time was incredible

The_impact_of_hurricane_debbie_1961_and_hurricane _charley_1986_on_ireland
1631. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!!!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

...GIL WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 137.7W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1920 MI...3095 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

LIMITED AND WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE IN THE VICINITY OF AN
OBSCURRED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO
INGEST STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW ON ITS NORTH SIDE...AND HAS BECOME
ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM NEARBY TROPICAL
STORM HENRIETTE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON
RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY TRENDS AND THE DEGRADED SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. IN ADDITION...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL...WHICH SHOULD HELP GIL TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06 KT. GIL HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
STORM HENRIETTE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY WHILE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST UNDER THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF HENRIETTE AND THE TRADE WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.9N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 13.5N 138.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 13.1N 140.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 12.8N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 12.6N 143.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 12.7N 147.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z 12.7N 150.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

...HENRIETTE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 127.9W
ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF
HENRIETTE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ALSO REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45
KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 0522Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS THAT SHOWED
40-KT WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE 34-KT
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE ASCAT WIND DATA.

THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL WOBBLES IN THE MOTION OF HENRIETTE DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ON
A WESTWARD COURSE OF 275/06 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
BETWEEN 135W-140W LONGITUDE. AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
INDUCING THIS WEAKNESS LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON DAYS 3-5 AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE MADE A NOTICEABLE
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE.

HENRIETTE APPEARS POISED TO UNDERGO AT LEAST A TYPICAL RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 175 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN STEADILY
WEAKENING AND MOVING CLOSER TO HENRIETTE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THAT SYSTEM SHOULD MORPH INTO AN OUTER RAIN BAND IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...ALLOWING THE PREVIOUSLY DIVERTED EQUATORIAL INFLOW TO
BE DRAWN INTO THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE. THIS INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE
AIR...COUPLED WITH 28C SSTS...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD INITIATE THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS LATER
TODAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WAS INCREASED AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON...BUT IS
BELOW THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH BRINGS HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST 90 KT IN
48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 12.1N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 12.5N 128.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 13.3N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 14.3N 132.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 15.1N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 17.0N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 17.5N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
The silence before the storm(s)?
1639. VR46L
Quoting 1638. PanhandleChuck:
The silence before the storm(s)?


Probably gonna be for a while....



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Anyone know long that SAL off Africa may last?
Quoting 1641. mitchelace5:
Anyone know long that SAL off Africa may last?

Hi Mitchel. Really hope you can join us. We are in this blog now.
Quoting 1642. SouthernIllinois:

Hi Mitchel. Really hope you can join us. We are in this blog now.


Sorry about that. Thank you. :)