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Don't believe the models

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:33 PM GMT on September 12, 2005

Don't believe any of the computer forecast models or the official NHC forecast--no one knows where Ophelia is going. Ophelia is trapped between two large and strong high pressure systems, and will continue to behave unpredictably. The 5am NHC discussion called it this way: "None of the reliable dynamical models have been immune from significant track forecast shifts during the past day or two in this very difficult scenario." In other words, we have no idea where Ophelia is going.

A slow westward drift has been the trend the past day or so, and several of the models show a slow westward or northwestward drift the next two days. Thus, it is reasonable to anticipate that Ophelia's outer rain bands will start to impact the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts this afternoon through tomorrow, bringing localized heavy rain and minor flooding. The usually-reliable GFS model's latest run at 06Z (2am EDT) this morning shows Ophelia hitting Charleston as a strong tropical storm Tuesday morning, and the GFDL thinks Ophelia will be a Category 1 hurricane hitting South Carolina Tuesday night. The other models disagree, letting Ophelia wander off the coast the next two days, and forecast that by Wednesday, a weak trough will push off the East Coast and take Ophelia northward across eastern North Carolina and out to sea. However, the models have trended towards making this trough weaker and weaker. There now appears to be a significant possibility that the trough will fail to pick up Ophelia, high pressure will build back in, and she will wander around the ocean waters near Cape Hatteras for a few more days. The Canadian model has a rather omininous solution--the high pressure that builds in will be strong enough to push Ophelia southwestward, across northern Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico five days from now. I pooh-poohed this solution when I saw it yesterday, but now this forecast cannot be discounted. The Canadian model has been suggesting that the trough would fail to pick up Ophelia for three runs in a row now, and the NOGAPS and UKMET are starting to show the same thing. In any case, none of these models should be taken very seriously; this is an extremely difficult forecast situation, and trying to predict what Ophelia will do five days from now, let alone tomorrow, will involve more luck than skill.

Intensity forecast
The latest hurricane hunter mission was at 8:30am EDT, and showed a slightly weaker storm with a poorly-formed eyewall, a central pressure of 988 mb, and peak winds of just 48 knots on the west side. The crew will find stronger winds once they penetrate the north eyewall where the strongest winds are, but Ophelia might get downgraded to a tropical storm today.


Figure 1. Surface winds in Ophelia yesterday afternoon as seen from the NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft.

Dry air continues to be Ophelia's bane; a large amount of it has wrapped into the core of the hurricane and disrupted the convection on the west side. There is still plenty of dry air on her northwest side, and this should continue to be a problem for her the next few days. Cold water stirred up from down deep by Ophelia's winds will also continue to be a problem as she wanders over the same ocean area for multiple days. On the plus side for intensification, wind shear remains lows, about 5 - 10 knots out of the northwest. The upper-level ouflow pattern remains good, and the overall organization of Ophelia is strong. Given all these factors, neither significant strengthening or weakening is likely the next two or three days, and Ophelia will remain a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane during this period.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Nothing is going on. Large amounts of dry, dust-laden Saharan air cover most of the tropical Atlantic including the Caribbean Sea.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hiya
We had some bad weather here last night because of Ophelia's "disruption." In fact, at one point almost 100,000 could had had power loss last night adn a funnel cloud was sighted -- in The Bahamas!
Do you think that we could have more issues this evening with that "tail" that is in our region or do you feel it will move enough to leave us alone :)
P.S. -- Do you anyone think that the heavy storms to the east of us could develop into something ?
i have just received word that the governor of SC will issue a voluntery evacuation for the coast of Horry county (myrtle beach) this afternoon. This is not official, but i did receive it from a reliable county official.

sounds like fun! LOL
I have friends who are on the southern NC coast, and they took no chances. They have boarded up their property in anticipation of a hit. This storm is too unpredictable to do nothing at all, and I applaud anyone who prepares early.

praise dr. masters he said the nhc has no idea where this is going. amen that is usually the case unless thier is a obvious steering around these systems. also i suggested a week ago that a betsy track was not out of the realm when i suggested this the 2 people who monopolize this blog said they did not
have models to track them then. i was not talking about model but climatology history which the really forecasters ala john
hope and in our area of the gulf coast used as much as model data weather under ground has a track of betsy 1965 take a look
thier was a very strong ridge that set up to cause this track
pray it doesnt happen just a thought sounds as good as the ones that the experts who spend 18hrs a day tracking every wobble come up with. sorry so long must get back to katrina clean up. have a blessed day.
yeah - my folks live in garden city, sc - south horry county. they packed up the rv and bailed this morning for north and west of columbia... takin no chances. just imagine being in a 35ft motor home with two bull mastiff's though. god bless them.

jeremy
dr masters if you are there does climatogical history play into
the forecasts of these systems?
Hello Folks.....

I am an avid reader of the blogs and it is my first post here.
I was reading what SaintHurrifan said and if he's correct and it does follow Betsy's track according to climatological history, Central and South Florida then are not out of the woods just yet.....
Is she moving NW now?
WeCare @ WeatherUnderground ( just a careing member )

Things to Know BEFORE A HURRICANE THREATENS
Elevation Of Your Home Above Sea Level
Get this information from the office of the Emergency Management Coordinator (EMC). Your nearest Weather Service office can supply flood-stage data for area streams and waterways. Find out if your home is subject to storm surge (tidal) flooding.
Maximum Storm Surge Which Might Occur
Information about the potential for inland flooding and storm surge is available through your local EMC or website.
Route To Safety If You Have To Leave
Plan your escape route early. Check with your local Emergency Managment Center or web site for low points and flooding history of your route.
Check the number of hours it could take you to evacuate to a safe area during peak evacuation traffic.

Be carefull not to asume things will be OK because anyone takes a storm lightly or is traveling to "SEE IT".

They may be well prepared & willing to risk more than you or your family. By all means Stay Vigilant & pay attention to LOCAL news & Weather baradcasts in your area.
i would say wnw at best....
I was under the impression that every hurricane has its own unique path because it is steered by the current pressure systems pushing and pulling on it. And by the current temp of the water and by any other storms that may or may not be close by.

Therefore, the movement of past storms would only be a guide if they had similar sets of current weather systems pushing or pulling on it.

Others can probably explain this much better.

Yea Ophelia is one of them storms where even after throwing out all the rules because its the tropical season of 2005. You still come down to rolling the dice on where its going to go. Only good thing is the longer it stays in one area the harder it becomes to grow because it chuns up cold water and chokes on it.. Personally I think its ulimately going to get pushed out to sea. But the season is far from over and remenber we have had tropical systems as late as end of the year (the one I remenber can't remenber all the details formed like Dec 27 and died like Jan 4 or something)
Saint Feel free to send the Dr. an email as it is not realistic to expect him to plough through so many wonderfull messages. :) Thanks for the insightfull warning! Like you; I hope not!

Illegitimi Non Carborundum!
To have O in the Gulf at the end of the week would be most unsettling to say the least. Let's hope that trough DOES somehow pick up a weakened TC and send it out to sea...

bahamas, we too are getting tired of rough feeder bands at night...
Winds gusting between 25 -30 mph. Pressure has dropped to 1014.8 mb. Outer bands on the horizon. Maybe the game is afoot in MB.
Where are you VHE?
Myrtle Beach. Waiting and waiting and ...............
I've got his feeling of deja vu. I feel like we are basically back to where we were Saturday. Oh wait...we are. It's funny how this thing came back almost to the same spot as Saturday. Lets just hope it doesn't make a home there. I'll bet the 11am will have it as a TS. She's pretty beaten up but the outflow still looks larger than it was. 70 miles from the coast and were are getting ome gust probably of 25-30mph. Maybe the high will kick this witch outta here as the lower pressures appear to be south and east.
I don't think a dropping barometer is a good thing for you there. I'd be real nervous till it turns if I were you. ICan't tell if it is moving or not. (the storm). Mine bar. is 1025 mb down from 1026 mb just a little while ago. Don't know if they are taking it seriously enough down there with the low model confidence.
"Don't know if they are taking it seriously enough down there with the low model confidence."

MY SENTIMENTS EXACTLY!!!! LOL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATED A PEAK 700
MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 60 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM VERTICALLY. THUS THE
SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY.
OPHELIA HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO
UPWELLING AND STIRRING HAS LIKELY COOLED THE WATERS. SHIP AND
DRIFTING BUOY DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY
HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW 26 DEG C BENEATH THE STORM CENTER. THE
TRACK FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA OVER A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM...
WHERE A MODESTLY DEEP WARM WATER MIXED LAYER...I.E. HIGHER OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT...COULD INDUCE RE-STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM RE-ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE NEARING THE COAST.

AFTER COMPLETING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP...THE STORM IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...315/02. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
SO ILL-DEFINED...THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A DIFFICULT ONE. SOME
GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN...INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PICK UP OPHELIA
AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE WE HAVE THE UNPLEASANT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL STILL MOVE OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC BEYOND 3 DAYS...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 3-5
DAY TIME FRAME.

FORECASTER PASCH



5 DAYS!!!!!!!!!! THIS THING IS DRIVIN ME NUTTS! LOL
Thelmores, do you think the Gov will issue the voluntary evac after school is out or maybe after the 11 AM update. Not sure if you're still in touch with the county official.
Honestly it's hard to take it seriously. I mean were in the same position as Saturday, the storm is now downgraded and the NHC is now saying this thing could be around even longer. Luckily I'm far enough from the coast that unless this thing comes in between Charleston and Myrtle Beach we'll probably get SOME wind and rain. If I were on the coast I'd be a little more worried. My camper is sitting in Brunswick County and I have been debating for 2 days whether to leave it or go get it. The heck with it. I'm going to leave it 40 know winds on the coast puling a camper would not be a fun ride to the beach anyway.
My bad, what I thought that SaintHurriFan said was that Ophelia was being steered by almost the same steering factors that took Betsy. I didn't mean to sound ignorant and when I re-read what I posted, I seem it.
What I meant was that if Ophelia's steering factors are mirroring those of Betsy...
The outer rain bands seem to be really firing up at about where the gulf stream is. Nasty from offshore charleston up to the obx.
Vertical, i have heard of no timetable, only that this afternoon the governor will issue the voluntery evacuation of some coastal counties.... thats all the info i have..... sorry! :(
No problem at all...just curious...thanks again.
I have a problem with following the historical of other storms... ALL the conditions have to replicated exactly for the course and strength to be duplicated. You can only get a general sense of what MIGHT happen, but just as in cloning, you are only going to start out with the same basic, then outside influences are going to change all the dynamics. To go by only history would be bad science. You can take a look-see at it, but you really need to also use the tools currently at hand as well. Until ::VBG:: you get an Oph that decides to sit and stymie everyone!
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kltx.shtml

it appears the center of circulation has appeared on radar,
and is moving in a NW direction towards myrtle beach! LOL
Looks like we're about to get lit up! lol
BTW - did anyone happen to notice that Jim Cantore is at Nags Head? LOL
i just can'tbelive how stubborn the nhc is with their track. u can see from radar and sat that their track is off and impossible at this time. all i can say is wow. if ur in sc prepare casue she is headed ur way lol
OOOHHH yea.
000
WTNT71 KNHC 121442
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

32.3N 77.7W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC 9 6 3 2 20
33.0N 77.7W 46 X X X 46 CAPE HATTERAS NC 2 6 5 4 17
33.9N 77.4W 21 2 1 1 25 NORFOLK VA X 1 5 7 13
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 1 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 7 8
JACKSONVILLE FL 1 1 1 2 5 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5
SAVANNAH GA 5 5 2 2 14 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 3 3
CHARLESTON SC 15 3 2 1 21 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC 19 3 1 1 24 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2
WILMINGTON NC 15 4 2 1 22

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


$$
so, lefty, you going chaasing?
Local news in Charleston, SC is still saying that all we'll see is some high winds as of about 10am. Any clue when new info and such is comming out that might give me 1/2 a clue?
Good morning Lefty. Cantore is here in Nags Head. uh oh. Several posters have been giving barometer readings VHE had 1014 a little while ago. Read back and see what you make of them. I don't think a dropping barometer in MB is a good thing for them. Mine is down to 1024 from 1026 an hour ago.
also she is a ts again but should regain her hurricane status as she is abiut to hit the gulf stream ina few hours. deep convection is laready building back on the east side
Would it be correct to say that a falling barometer in MB indicates the storms low pressure is overcoming the high blocking pressure?
no cgb, with the uncertainty i can't really run around the se us lol. my new attempt was if she hit the obx the ride her out in va beach like i did isabeal but right now i thin she is going to hit sc in the nest 36 hrs.
or the ridge is rebuilding to the ne and the cenetr is getting closer
pressure now down to 1014.1 mb A def trend downward. Winds are now a steady 20 mph with gusts to almost 30 form the N. However, unlike yesterday, we have breaks of sun today.
the core of the first rain bands is less than 25 miles off the sc and se nc coast. its about to godown hill quick in the se
gee, you don't want to spend $3- a gal on gas? no sense of adventure ::wink::
you could always go to Nags Head and hang with Jim... How in the world does TWC determine where to post THEIR peeps?
This TC has to be one of the more frustrating ones. Altho' I do recall one many moons ago that must have crossed over the western end of Cuba about four diff times... I think some 30 years ago. All the Cubans said it was divine retribution for what Castro is...
Pressure here is the same as it was yesterday--I go by 24 hr comparisons because unless there is an obvious trend, slow changes can be masked by the dirunal variations in pressure. Anyway, Jeff's entry today is a kick :) If the nogaps is right and Ophelia ends up hitting N Florida I'll NEVER be able to shut Mike up!
lol cgb
agreed StSimons, hourly baro pressure changes really can't be taken into account. We fluctuate wildly sometimes here and it can be due to a localized thunderstorm... you need to watch a 24hr trend
Guess its time to bring the grill in. That was the last thing to on the last.
To my untrained eye, Ophelia looks like she is heading almost due north towards the end of the satellite loop. Last Tuesday night, I made the prediction that she would a) never make landfall and b) peak at cat 2 intensity. If I hadn't given in and predicted a SC landfall on Friday I would be looking good now *sob*
cgable, if you are on the beach, seabreezes can also cause pressure variations of 1.5 mb or so.
sts, on longrange radar she is moveing wnw or nw, her out band is about to come on shore in sc and se nc. she is so off track and headed right for mb-wilminton area
It seems to me a lot can happen in 24 hrs. when a hurricane is approaching and a trend would be recognizable a lot faster. JMO
Pressure trend has been downward for the last 24 hours save for a brief 20 minute "burp" at about 3:30 am.
Afternoon all. What is our sick little O doing. Trying to comit suicide? Would be kind of ironic huh?
in reading steve gregory blog, he didn't address the motion issue at all. says he'll do an update around 2pm. maybe then?
lefty is there a radar that shows her center (won't say eye) or is that still too far offshore?
u have a strong ridge to the nw and north of u. the ts is only 989mb and thats at the ceenter. ur expecting a crazy drop in pressure that doesn't happen till u start to get rain bands. so ur drop in pressure is showing the weaking or moving of the ridge. it is also present in the surface anylisis. yesterday most of the area was controled by 1020 or higher presusure. now that same area is controled by 1010mb pressure and its retraeatin so the pressure will continu to fall as the storm goes further wnw and errodes the high
Hey Thelmores, just saw we now have a voluntary evac order for Horry county.
this one is prettygood. her cenetr is poor on radar right now but you can clearly see she ismoving wnw or nw and she has done this since about 3am or sooner last night. when i got up a few mins ago she was still moving int hat same direcion


Link
If you look at the floater WV you can see clouds and moist air expanding to the NW of O. It looks to me like this is the track she would follow. That being the case It alomost looks like the center could get closest to Myrtle Beach give or take a little. Any thoughts?
just goes to show, i am not as big an idiot as my wife thinks! LOL

unless this baby turns, we will be getting some nasty outer bands in 2-4 hrs, possible even some tornadic activity! what a fun day! LOL
Local wx guy in MB (WPDE) says that they are fairly certain O is going to veer and miss us and head toward the obx! Hmm...
sj she is moving wnw or nw right for u guys. u will have a band come thru in 2-4 hrs AND THAN IT WILL JUST GO DOWN HILL
My new prediction based on the Nogaps and Ukmet. O runs up and down the SE coast for the rest of the season (maybe til mid novemeber) in varying strengths, but never actually makes landfall.lol.
Well lunch and beach time for me. That outer band approaching looks viscious fo Wilimington/Myrtle Beach area, be careful folks! It also looks like it could spin up some tornadoes on shore I bet.
Man, I haven't used a coat hanger for a TV antenna in like 30 years!
I like that radar link Lefty. Later!
LOL SJ SHEMIGHT RECURVE CROSS FLORIDA AND BECOME A CAT 5 IN THE GULF. SHE CAN DO ANYTHING AT THIS POINT LOL
lefty,u at home or on the coast?
That is kinda what I was saying Lefty, if she is moving NW that is MB if she jogs back to a wnw motion that is us.
ur welcome sts
Horry County is currently at OPCON-2
[ Evacuation Order Imminent ]

LOOKS LIKE THE FUN WILL START SOON! LOL
Lefty, Jeff said something about a GFS Charleston landfall? I did not see this? Got a link?
Come back thru FL??!!! Great....
When does she hit the Gulf Stream?
i am at home. could not pin down a landfall location i was confident in to spend the money to go to. i was hoping to ride her out in va beach but now i don't even think she will get there lol
i don't see it either but here is the gfs model link


Link
Does anyone have a link the the canadian forcast models that Dr. Jeff was talking about?
she would be moving close to the gulf stream in the next few hrs.
Models Includes canadian-cnc.

For the Gfdl you have to leave it set to surface pressure. for the nogaps set to 500mb vorticity. for all others set to 850mb vorticity.
81. MJH
Looks like Florida got the worst of it when it sat just off the coast for about 2-3 days. It will travel much quicker accross the Carolinas, if it even makes it that way.
yes i saw the model run of the canadian and thought it was a joke but not now lol. here is the link


Link
Wow! This local wx guy in Myrtle Beach is still stating he is fairly certain O will NOT be making landfall anywhere from Charleston up to the Grand Strand here in MB.

I guess he's the ONLY one certain!!
wow i would not make that statewment when she ismoving right in ur direction and the the pressure sistuation with the ridge is errie close the the nam which makes landfall around charleston. wow
That canadian model would be a soaker for the E coast if the dry air got out of the way.
I can not remember a storm where everyone was so clueless. Very odd. The S. Carolina coastline does not help matters though.
look at the nam sj. thats themodel i am following now cause the nws from charleston said it has thbhandle on the ridge and surface pressure righ now. but the nws in charleston says they are following the nhc who is folloowing the gfs. what bs lol
the nam is the model above the gfs in that link i gave you
Thanks for the link. I didn't realize that "cmc" was the candadian model.. slowly but surely, I am learning..
thanks guys!...
latest vortexmessage. herpressure is up again 990mb but her max flight level winds is 69kts. so she is picking up her convection so she might regain her cane status in a few hrs if this continues



683
URNT12 KNHC 121602
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/15:49:10Z
B. 31 deg 40 min N
077 deg 05 min W
C. 700 mb 2984 m
D. 50 kt
E. 48 deg 080 nm
F. 144 deg 066 kt
G. 045 deg 062 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 9 C/ 3044 m
J. 12 C/ 3050 m
K. NA C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 1816A OPHELIA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 69 KT NW QUAD 13:27:00 Z



Lefty, the guy may be right but in my opinion, it is nothing short of idiotic and irresponsible to be broadcasting a complete miss for MB and the SC coast. He says we'll experience "at best 40 to maybe 50mph gusts"

Now I know why I have a dish!!!!!!!! Local TV...oy!
its cool man/ thats why we are here to learn
Its amazing how quiet the rest of the tropics are..so Ophelia wants to be the only one that shines, she is staying unpredictable cause she knows she has no competition and everyone will stay tuned to her...little witch.
Send me that link to the nam/GFS page lefty. Please. Thx.

lol stormy dee thats funny
Very hard to decipher movement as there is no telling where the actual center would reform/reorg with the Gulf Stream about to come in to play. Arghh. I just hope she leaves me with my sanity when ever she leaves.lol.
lol sj
Dear Ophelia, will you move today?
Waters getting colder where you stay
I know you are going where you may
But these people want a gusty day!
Should get the 8am model runs soon. It is odd that they have not put the 8am Bamm on the wunderground. I wunder why?lol.
lol stormy dee
its just funny that instead of shifting there track west the nhc just slowed her down lol
Does anyone believe she will enter the gulf in a few days
i still doubt it cajun but at this point anything is possible
My electricity is still out, along with about 10,000 other people, I understand, ... and tonight we are back under the "intense feeder bands" ... sorry to hear you are having the same troubles cgable :(
I am going home to an empty house this evening, with my wife working late as a nurse. Don't want to even think about the stuff in the fridge that we will be throwing out.
I understand that 4 transformers blew out yesterday in our area when they tried to turn the power back on ... ah well :(
now i see why Dr. Steve Lyons (TWC) is bald..... pulled all his hair out traking storms like ophelia! LOL
ohno, bahamas! We didn't get hit THAT hard! Our hardest hit was SAT
She actually appears to be a little N of the forcast points.
Pressure now down to 1013.4 mb here in Myrtle

No interpretation, just an observation.
thanks lefty, good to see yall are all still around, very informative and interesting discussion today
the way she's moving, if she does go into the gulf, it'll be somethime next month!! LOL
OK, if the NE from VA on up is going to remain "gorgeous and clod-free" for the next 2 days, wouldn't that suggest O would have a somewhat difficult time tracking N? Or at least hang in this general area for awhile?

I guess I'm still kinda ticked off at the local wx guy's irresponsibilty. Sorry...just venting...I'm through!
well, less than an hour till a new update...think anything has changed? Is she a hurricane again yet? Is she gonna skirt the coast still? Or is she gonna go thru several loop-d-loops until she ends up in the gulf? Or worse, get to the gulf, loop-d-loop out there, cross over Mexico and move into the Pacific will she will slam into Hawaii after several more loop-d-loops? Ha/ha...now that at least won't be true....She just can't make up her mind...
Hurricane Ophelia Update

Governor Issues a Voluntary Evacuation

"South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford has just issued a voluntary evacuation for coastal Horry County (myrtle beach). This evacuation includes all properties along and east of US Highway 17 or US Highway 17 Business. In addition, the voluntary evacuation includes all low-lying areas, all mobile homes, and all campground sites.

Two shelters will open at 4:00 p.m. today for individuals who wish to evacuate: Conway High School on 2201 Church Street and Loris Elementary at 901 Highway 9 Business East. Shelters are not designed to be comfortable, but are designed to be a safe place to ride out a storm. Individuals should bring blankets, pillow/sleeping bags, toys, identification and important documents, medicine, toiletries, etc. Pets are not allowed.

Horry County is operating at a Level 2 Operating Condition (OPCON) in preparations of Hurricane Ophelia. OPCON 2 means that the storm poses a significant threat to Horry County and preparations are underway. County officials have had continual discussions with South Carolina Emergency Management and other coastal communities, and will continue to monitor the situation closely.

The latest track of Hurricane Ophelia still keeps the storm north of Horry County into Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, however the track is still uncertain. Horry County will experience tropical storm force winds (45 mph plus) early tomorrow morning into Wednesday evening. This could bring vegetation debris and minor power outages in Horry County. Residents and tourists are urged to be cautious on the beaches, as the surf will remain rough over the next couple of days with the potential of rip currents.

This forecast is expected to change as the storm gets closer to the coast and residents are strongly urged to monitor their local news for the most up-to-date information on the storm and should survey their homes to make sure outside objects are secured. It is also recommended that you review your hurricane plans now."

looks like charleston will get the first outer bands...... maybe we should have issued a voluntery evac there too?
her name should have been Hurricane Loopy
Stormydee....too funny! Thanks for the laffs!
it's a little disheartening; but at least I can expect the rough weather every evening until it moves.
Now, something coming in from the east above Hispaniola :(
Ah well ...
We all care about each other here on the underground so please be careful

As no one truly knows what Ophelia is going to do or WHEN, we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst! !!! ..Stay tuned sportsfans!

Do NOT make any plans based on amateur posts on this BLOG. (Other than Dr. Masters)

Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. Hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available.
(DO NOT WAIT TO SEE FLOOD WATER TO DECIDE TO LEAVE)
This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves. Don't for get to fill some water bottles 3/4 full & freeze them as they will help keep you fridge cold longer & then become drinking water that's actually cold. Thanks for your attention Bloggers!

Stay safe & enjoy the weatherWUnderground

TRULY... anyone reading this in the potential land-fall areas or anywhere in the Southeast USA & the Bahamas.

Stay Alert Read all the data you wish, but Hide from the wind, RUN from the Water

Do not depend on ANY government to tell you what to do.

oh, mybahamas, do not worry about that dry wave over there in hispaniola...it blossoms and fizzles out every day...maybe later in the week, but now, no worries...only Ophelia, the misunderstood tropical cyclone that just wanted to make landfall and those big mean Highs pressured her to stay put, until today....
O needs to stand up for herself and show those high's who's boss. This is almost as bad as waiting for Christmas when I was a kid.
The humidity up here in VA just keeps getting lower and lower. It's at 32% right now and I read several comments that it's pretty similar down in NC. Ophelia is going to have a hard time combating this desert. If dusty, dry air is keeping anything from forming off the coast of Africa, the same thing is pretty much happening on this side of the Atlantic.
ya got to love it.."Don't believe any of the computer forecast models or the official NHC forecast--no one knows where Ophelia is going." Dr Masters....so then, who do we believe?
well, the first "outer bands" are starting to come ashore just south of georgetown, sc

starting to get nervous in myrtle beach! LOL
that looks like a nasty rainband on the radar...surely will have some good gusts...be careful!
Def looking ugly toward the ocean. Our winds have substantially picked up as well. Now gusting in the mid 30's....sustained mid 20's. Here we go, Thelmores! lol
if she remains on this course and that rainband makes it completely onshore, its gonna be one long, wet, windy night...even if the eye stays offshore...
Waiting for this storm is about as close as it comes to waiting for an earthquake... Prepare and wait, when it happens, it is here.
any word on that trough in the medwest that's supposed to pick up Ms. O???
FYI: Horry County Schools are closed tomorrow! (MB, SC)
This just in:

Dear weather watchers,
I am sorry I am so late. I had a million errands to run. I will get to the coast as soon as I can
Yours truly,
The trough in the mdwest.

"It don't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"

Bob Dylan
waiting for an earthquake is harder, weathernut, can't see them and only hints of foreshocks would allow u to know if one will happen. So, is the Mississippi River experiencing foreshocks or afershocks from the early 1800's...? I have a feeling they are foreshocks...Oh, sorry, this is a weatherblog....forgive me!
lol subtropic :-)
Dear Trough,

Take your time!
just came in from cleaning out the city storm drains, mine and the little park across the street, totally clogged from 2 nights torrents. this way our drive way won't flood... and look how far we are from it... still picking up Kat debris... and folks say "it's only a cat1"
Is GA out of the way yet?
It is dry here in VA, but with winds now from the E, it should cut off the dry air getting into O. Also, she is drifting into warmer water. She has been through the ringer with dry air, shear and upwelling, it is scary to think what she will in 6 hours when she will have very little shear, warmer water, and the dry air ventilating her?
actually its only a TS..lol..j/k...
with a system like this if you don't laugh and let off some steam you gonna lose what little sanity you got.

Wonder if they retire a name from the books for being loopy? Not like it's done anything other than be major annoying so far...
wg03, I don't mean Oph at this very moment, I mean attitudes in general...
hey everybodyu i am back now. i went and let my wife cuty my hair so now my head is lighter lol. ga is not out of the picture nor is florida or any place on the east coast
I'd rather have a moving cat 2 than a slow TS. NC is nothing but swamps anyway. the lawns need the rain but that's about the extent of it. I've watched the Weather channel and obviously they simply mimic the NHC. My wife said "good it's only a tropical storm so it won't be that bad". She shears I'm the drama king. LOL I always remind her of Floyd when she said "there won't be anything to it" We had 14 inches of water all around the house and were were 3 miles from the nearest flood plain. I'm ready for O to come and go. The season's not even 1/2 over there's gotta be more fun coming.LOL
Latest loop shows jog to west again...not looking good for Charleston to Myrtle Beach. Inland, here in SC, we need the rain bad...not too much though!


if she don't start moving, shes gonna get freeze to death, literally....
oh lefty, thank you, thank you very much ::elvis impression:: (you just made my day)
So Lefty, without the hair you can sense the preddure changes better? LOL oh boy, that's what I have been thinking, if no place to go for O... GA & FL could be a path... Lefty, what made you think this? a new run of the Canadian or GFDL?
2pm adv out. she ismoving nw at 4mph and winds are 70mph
I know..i was just popping in..nothing else to say at this point..lol..just bringing some humor.
see, lefty, I thought u went to the coast w/out tellng us...at least your hair won't blow as bad now. lol
darn..preddure = pressure .. hate this mini keyboard ..LOL
i have an indicated 2mb drop in pressure in myrtle beach the last 2 hours......

hmmmm! LOL
yeah the afro was holding me back lol. i still have a full beard and look like a lumberjack but i look alot betetr.

no i was just stating that we have no lcue what she will do next. models are no good and her movement may only be temporary. i still feel a sc/nc border landfall is the most likley scenario but that is very low confidence
DATELINE: Myrtle Beach! LOL

"Due to the request for a voluntary evacuation for areas on or east of Highway 17 Business in Horry County, Lymo will offer its services to evacuate residents and tourists to area shelters.

The seven evacuation pickup points that have been designated are Inlet Square Mall, Wal-Mart (Highway 544), Coastal Grand Mall, Myrtle Square Mall, Food Lion (79th Ave N), Colonial Mall, and Wal-Mart (Gator Hole Plaza in North Myrtle Beach). Passengers boarding at Inlet Square Mall, Wal-Mart (Highway 544), Coastal Grand Mall, and Myrtle Square Mall will be transported to the shelter at Conway High School. Passengers boarding at Food Lion (79th Ave N), Colonial Mall, and Wal-Mart (Gator Hole Plaza in North Myrtle Beach) will be transported to the shelter at Loris Elementary School.

Evacuation services will be available from 4:00PM 12:00AM Monday, with buses running every hour. If anyone is unable to make it to one of the designated pickup points, please contact Lymo at 843-488-0865 or 843-465-5526 to arrange special transportation.

Beginning at 4:00PM, fares will no longer be charged on all fixed route service in order to expedite evacuation efforts. This suspension of fares will last until the evacuation request has been lifted.

In the event that a mandatory evacuation is called, all fixed route service will be suspended, with all vehicles assisting in evacuation efforts."
yeah i was getting streamlined in case i do get to ride her out. if i go anywehre it will be va beach or right accros the border into nc near the outer banks. thats my current plan and as befor i will take as many pics i cane to post. but right now looks like the sc trip is off. ;-(
HEY!!! STOP THE PRESSES!!!

She's moving TWICE as FAST!!! NW at 4
Could this thing go due north? I am seeing more and of a decrease in the "eastern push". If so, this would make Raleigh feel the effects, WOOO!


- C
Hmmm.. Did we learn something from Katrina here on the Strand??? Interesting, thelmores!
lol uoh we have half as much time. quick evac she will be here by decemebr now aaaahhhhhh lol
lefty. last week, u gave a link for a simple-to-the-point-map of the computer models (kind of like they have on wunderground, only you can see them better)...have that link handy? I saw your other links, but today, my brain is on the monday blahs and I am feeling like an idiot.lol thank you!!! :-)
STORMDEE
Perhaps I could help:
http://skeetobiteweather.com/index.asp

- C
ur funny lefty!
ah, thanks dubby, greatly appreciated.
i dunno maybe u mean this one here




Link
yes, thats it...maybe i'll remember it by i got no skeetobites from weather last year when the hurricanes blew them to CA. lol
will she get picked up by a trough and move NE....will she stay under high pressure and move to myrtle beach...will she do something completely crazy and go SW into the gulf....stay tuned for all the drama that is AS OPHELIA TURNS ...dun dun dun
funny pirate, Arhhhh! lol :-)
I wish the storm would start making a decisive move...many had the eye going right over me in Carteret County...The one in NC that sticks out in the ocean running east and west...but now there's no telling....My kids are eating all the supplies that were for the storm that was "SUPPOSED" to be affecting us tonight or tomorrow..
Just posted some pics from Biloxi,gives you an Idea what you may go through if the storm you chase goes cat5 ..Thats the second Cat5 I have seen in my life...This damage is by far worse than Camille..
yeah i was going to survive on poptarts when i chased her but my daughter and my wife ate my poptarts;-(
Hourly Safety Memo

Posted By: HillsboroughBay at 5:17 PM GMT on September 12, 2005.
We all care about each other here on the underground so please be careful

As no one truly knows what Ophelia is going to do or WHEN, we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst! !!! ..Stay tuned sportsfans!

Do NOT make any plans based on amateur posts on this BLOG. (Other than Dr. Masters)
Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. Hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available.
(DO NOT WAIT TO SEE FLOOD WATER TO DECIDE TO LEAVE)
This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves. Don't for get to fill some water bottles 3/4 full & freeze them as they will help keep you fridge cold longer & then become drinking water that's actually cold. Thanks for your attention Bloggers!

Stay safe & enjoy the weatherWUnderground

TRULY... anyone reading this in the potential land-fall areas or anywhere in the Southeast USA.

Stay Alert Read all the data you wish, but Hide from the wind, RUN from the Water

Do not depend on ANY government to tell you what to do.
thank god for the hourly safety memo cause i am so dumb i thought every one in ehre worked for the nhc aduuuuhhhhh
At this rate she will be due south of Wilmington in 6 hours? I am looking at the radar on Accuweather pro. and it show significant movement west in the last 3 hours. Significant compared to past week.
Looks like the BAM Medium run takes Ms. O into the coast of SC below Myrtle Beach, and then takes it NE just inland into NC. Link
ok all. time forme to make lunch so iwill on and off over the next 30 mins
Well I'm back from a weekend of Florida Gator football and I see that Ophelia continues to meddle in the minds of the NHC and other forecasters. I have never seen a storm remain unpredictable for so long.

Anyhow it looks like shes moving northwestish, but I swear that some of that movement is an illusion caused by her wobbling and ill-defined swirling center. Any thoughts?
just came in for lunch break from what was a real hurricane clean up 93 degrees hot and the stink of all those dead chickens are spreading north puuuhhh lol. glad to see thier is old timers like me that followed old john hope he was a big
climatogical history buff on in his forecast of tracks hit the d-day forecast lol no models no 18hrs watching every wobble.
its funny you can 2times aday and keep track of this storm.
betsy track posibly it is little further kyle in 2002 was alot like this storm went everywhere for 16 days? from tropical storm to hurricane. this storm also looks like isodore losing
its inner core. lefty if your wife will let you out va. you missed hurricane of the century unfortunately this season is takinng on a 2002 look for late sept and early oct with the
patterns setting up so gulf coast god forbid im afraid is not over we here in ms. dont mind visitors from va. my niece is a doctor in wilmingto she said this storm is just another one of many no big deal she is keeping more with aftermath of katrina. just some thoughts got to get back to work p.s does anyone need firewood lol. cant help this SAINTS 23 CAROLINA 20 IM SURE GLAD CAROLINA HAS TURNOVER DELHOMME.
Does Lefty work?
If you go to either the visible or IR floater on this site and click the box top right -trp fcst pts, it looks like the track is as predicted.... so far. It doesn't make me feel any better but it might you in MB.
no i heard lefty is a stay at home dad
i feelu killdevil lookslike she is on track but we will see what happens
i was hopping for a oterbanks type landfall as i would get a nice storm in va beach
Man, you got it made Lefty... Good stuff though.
man, what a drag, I gotta sit here at work wishing I could chase her too...well, not really, just come up there and inhale west (not blow east like here in FL last week, I know u guys wanna feel her)...cause I can inhale as good as I can blow...ha/ha
yeah saint the game yesterday was nice
Like I said before - Cantore's here. I'm going out and clean up the yard.
well if stayin home with 2 kids under 5 years of age is got it made yea its good lol. wife is home today though her da off but she is at the store right now so i will probly be on and off of here tioday as like spending sometime wit the wife
Link
Can you guys see this radar?
yea but the big question is whether she turns NE or stays moving NW....models are staring to show the trough that was supposed to turn her NE not being very strong if affecting Ophelia at all...The high pressure above would make it hard for her to turn as soon...who knows...
Keep it clean stormydee or the blog police will be back.
lol stormy thats funny
no hooked, not a member...
LEFTY YOU ARE IN VA ONE QUICK QUESTON sorry about the caps arent arron brooks and mike vick cousins from the newport news area? redskins have adefense like balitimore niether has a quarterback though.. arron has all the talent in the world and avery nice kid just has mental lapses sometimes. sorry off the subject just curious p.s look at the archive on old kyle very reminicient hey istill love you just a john hope history not a model guy and hey max jokefield has bastardi about as goofy as he is now. lol. if you get chance give me a awnser if you would thanks.
it doesn't workfor me
Looks like ya gotta join hooked.
last time I checked, breathing was legal.
yes aorn brroks and michael vick are cousins from that area. not sure exactly hwere but its southern va i know that for sure


will check on kyle as well
This radar shows significant movement wnw in the past 4 hours or so.
lol kyle was a scrazy as ophelia is. here is the link on the storm from the nhc. i will be back in 15 mins cooking lunch currently



info on hurricane kyle from 2002
199. iyou
kdmax-what's doing with the praying mantis? still cringing behind the blind??
good link for checking movement..

Link

looks nw with a slight w to me...depends on how far it gets before and if it turns
Pressure here is 1017mb
where is here shoals....
Hatteras
Mines down to 1022 from 1026 at 8 this am. I'm going out on a limb here and calling it a trend.
I'm just west of Morehead City...
a turn north to north east will be tough....Link

It'd be nice if it would just kill itself hovering over cooler water but it seems to be hanging on 'til it can get over the gulf stream....
Joe B's forecast this AM

MONDAY 8:45 A.M.: OPHELIA FORECAST
The storm at 988 is now only a tropical storm. That being said, the worst of the shear and dry air attack is done. The water underneath it, though, is not that warm. It will be spending 6-12 hours over the Gulf stream, so with the upper pattern reversing and the storm coming over warmer waters, the threat of intensification does remain. A more extensive post is coming later, not only on this, but also on the overall pattern and some of the interesting things that will be going on, including the worry about a blockbuster hurricane that puts an end to the landfall season and the pattern we have been in all summer.

However, first things first.

Initial, according to recon, is 31.5 north and 76.9 west, 988 mb all times 12z.

Tuesday: 32.3, 78.3, 970 mb, 80 knots.

Wednesday: 34.0, 77.0, 970 mb, 85 knots. (May have peaked below that over the Gulf stream).

Thursday: 37.5, 75.0, 985 mb, 65 knots.

Friday: 41.5, 71.5, 990 mb, 50 knots.

I think I figured it out! Mother Nature wanted to be nice and give the gulf a break..from discussion: TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MEANDER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND HAS BEEN BRINGING DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR SWD OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF WATERS. So, she stopped Ophelia over the weekend so N.O. would dry up some...thanks Mother Nature for showing you sometimes care....
that was this a.m...wonder what he's thinkin' now...
Hourly Safety Memo

Posted By: HillsboroughBay at 5:17 PM GMT on September 12, 2005.
We all care about each other here on the underground so please be careful

As no one truly knows what Ophelia is going to do or WHEN, we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst! !!! ..Stay tuned sportsfans!

Do NOT make any plans based on amateur posts on this BLOG. (Other than Dr. Masters)
Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. Hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available.
(DO NOT WAIT TO SEE FLOOD WATER TO DECIDE TO LEAVE)
This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves. Don't for get to fill some water bottles 3/4 full & freeze them as they will help keep you fridge cold longer & then become drinking water that's actually cold. Thanks for your attention Bloggers!

Stay safe & enjoy the weatherWUnderground

TRULY... anyone reading this in the potential land-fall areas or anywhere in the Southeast USA.

Stay Alert Read all the data you wish, but Hide from the wind, RUN from the Water

Do not depend on ANY government to tell you what to do.
what is with these warnings? Where was Flacrakagal during Katrina?
I think everyone in here understands the nature of this forum....I will say this...this season it has proven as reliable or more so than the NHC....
You all know the old saying.."a watch pot never boils" well a watched Ophelia never makes landfall. LOL
Dr. Gregory says she is moving 10 mph? is that still true? or 4?
u guys they do it in response tome, its there way of trying to aggrevate me. i think they look stupid if u tell me. horuly safety warning lol. worse than stormtop and his offiacial forcasts
she might be. its hard to tell as the nhc bases movement on 3 hourly fixes so she could be movinmg faster than what they stated
lefty, I worry, stormtop was so much into Katrina, and now we don't see him in here anymore since the storm blew thru...r u gonna leave us once u get ur storm? Or do u promise to come back no matter what? Don't want to lose your useful information....
man can'ty wait for the next hourly safety warning lol. just imagine the people that sit around and post that every hour lol. they have som problems.

this is not a test. take cyclones serius. this is not a test


thank you this has been ur hourly safety warning lol
no i'll be back and with tons of pics to share. i just wish she would hurry up and make up her mind what she wants to do lol
She is moving pretty good, I would say 6 or 7, but she is well west of the NHC forecast path...
on this loop it dfinitely appears to be doing faster than 4 mph...regory is probably right...

Link
Accuweather's hourly forecast is calling for 60mph gusts in Richmond on WED... That would mean her moving pretty quick, which it is looking like she is doing.
bye stormy
l8r...;-)
I noticed that most the computer models are older vs the Bamm one. Any clue when there will be newer ones? Just concerned with the possibility of a SC landfall and local news is telling us no worries, but I'm not so sure yet.
quick political break!
STOP THE PRESSES!!!
Local FOX - CNN affiliate says Brownie resigned from FEMA
wow fema director mike brown resigned today
AHA!!! I beat you lefty!!! nyah nyah!!!
yeash i watched that on tv as well and looked it up ongoogle befor i posted. wow. now maybe we can start to get somewhere in this country
sorry cgb i was getting a second source befor i stated it lol
LOL... now wunderyakuza will boot us both!!! nah, he's a good guy, knows we need breaks from Oph.

From reading Steve's Blog I think Oph might come in sooner than later, what do you think?
Hills, I & others, just want folks to be vigilant... Things can change quickly, Being Prepared can't be overstated enough.

(i do in fact have a life... REFRESH, Copy, Paste & Post is not real tough.)
but itsnot needed and its kinda stupid to keepposting it. everyone from florida to va who is in this blog is watching the storm.
Ophelia is definitely on the move..she may have finally decided to do something....she's definitely moving faster than most models were figuring on...Ophelia is bound and determined to keep everyone guessing..
new vortex is out. pressure is still 989 but on this pass the highest flright level winds recorded was 55kts. they might drop her intensity down to 60-65 mph but we will see


URNT12 KNHC 121944
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/17:19:30Z
B. 31 deg 42 min N
077 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2985 m
D. 50 kt
E. 135 deg 073 nm
F. 221 deg 055 kt
G. 135 deg 082 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 9 C/ 3026 m
J. 12 C/ 3047 m
K. NA C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.05 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1816A OPHELIA OB 29
MAX FL WIND 69 KT NW QUAD 13:27:00 Z

I am starting to think lanfall around the nc/sc border is looking pretty solid!

this storm has definately traveled much faster to the west than the nhc thought..... course with this freakin storm, throw the model consensus out!!!!!!
lol yeah
Thelmores, looks like we are almost in range of trop storm force winds according to the latest wind profile.

We still have sun peaking through. Wind is still a steady 20 with about 30 mph gusts. Pressure down to 1010.7 mb. Otherwise, nothing significant going on at the beach.
the barometer continues to drop here in myrtle beach....

was 30.05" when i came in at 8am this morning, we are down to 29.94", and still dropping!
that rainband offshore is the leading edge of the ts force winds. also dopler has indicated there are gusts in those bands as high as 50+ mph
I have a question about African dust...what is it? , and is it usual during hurricane season, or is this a year where there has been more then usual.

I have never heard of it before this year.. of course I am kind of new to this whole thing.. I didn't really think about cyclones up in NY. (although I DO remember getting some of David in 79'--I was only 6 though..)
STOP THE PRESSES!!!

TWC is taking this very seriously!!!
They have Jim Cantore at Nags Head!!!
They have Jeff Morrow at Wrightsville Beach!!!
Ophelia finally starts moving and our air gets drier than ever. We started out the day at 32% humidity, we're down to 25% now. Someone please push her this way! Nothing major, nothing to hurt anybody, just a nice solid soaking of some very parched Virginians!
Saharan dust always blows off the Continent, some years more than others. It also blows into diff parts of the ATL more than others. I remember year after year in Puerto Rico with brassy skies due to it, inhibits rainfall and creates horrible dusty and dry conditions.
well africa is a dessert lol. actually africa is going thru a drought so alot more dust thjan usual is being picked up by strein winds and blown off the coast. sandstorms basically. this sand than can float in the air all the way to the easter us coast if the winds are strong enough. it happens every year but this year it is worse than i ahve seen in a few years
it also depends on whether or not there has been serious drought on the continent. It will disrupt cyclonic formation. As to comparing this year to others, good question, first time I've been aware of it as such a player
Well she's moving alright. Is it just me or is she closing her south end too. She should be getting pretty clost to the Gulf Stream so any strengthening would need to occur soon. Just my opinion.
i see very little northern movement at all, but i definately see a westward movement.....

i think the next forecast track will be much farther to the left, much as the gfdl model indicated.

If this storm is gonna turn nw and n, it better hurry, or it's gonna run into the grand strand!
Those around Cantore better board up some windows...lol
thanks guys. I love how friendly everyone is here. I don't care what the others say about you --hehe ; )
Anyone considered that maybe they sent Cantore to a zone that may not have much impact? I mean come on the poor guy needs break. LOL
253. GZ
just got home from work. can someone update me? what are looking at in Wilmington? Is she going to hang over our heads the next two days?
NEWS FLASH...O is heading due west! Charleston get prepared for a visit from O and hopefully Steph!!!
ok just checked some bouys and the sea temps to her wes ad w ar 80-82 degress. thepressure 90 milesform the cenetr is anywehre from 1015-1009 so gives u an idea of how low ur pressur ewill get and the closer to the cenetr the fastr it droips, currently 989 at the center

now with those warm waters ahead of her and the dry air being mixed out we might see her ramp up a little over the next 12-24 hrs
yes very littlemovement. no one knows where she is going g so we ahve to wait and see
257. GZ
thanks lefty!
weatherman bob, are you from charleston and if so what are the local guys saying? I am stuck at work but our emergency management people havent said a thing all day.
259. iyou
HurricaneZane - you can find info about dust, particles etc. here - http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast26jun_1.htm
Was just looking a the Visible loop on the NHC website with MSLP. The pressures north of O appear to be dropping. i guess this is why she's moving. Or maybe she's trying to show the high to the north who's boss. On several loops it's obvious she's clsoing her corculation and with her moving towards warmer water there is no telling what could happen.
My wife just came in and asked about it. I told her it was a TS and she was like oh no big deal then. Jeesh how do you make people understand that the only different between a TS and a CAT 1 is 1 MPH.
even then they just say oh its just a cat1 lol
RescueGuy...local guys here (Aiken, SC) are following script from NHC and TWC.
here in charleston its just another typical monday, nobody is really aware of the storm they all just think its going up north. Anybody from horry county online here, what are they saying up there? Same ole stuff, going out to the obx
264. GZ
good call rebel. If we have a TS over of heads for two days she will do some serious damage!
How do troughs and ridges effect the system? The system moves toward troughs and away from ridges?
As soon as she makes landfall, I think she'll just seriously fall apart. She has barely held it together so far anyway.

New thread Dr.Masters update. Looks she she's not going to make a turn yet.
thanks iyou!
Hi rescue. Here in Horry county (MB) there is a voluntary evac. No school tomorrow.

Local wx guy on wpde says its going to the obx and that we shouldn't worry!!!

More importantly, I just came in from securing my dish and the ants were crawling up the sides of the house. So, forget the models, the ants have spoken!!! Ms. O is coming! lol
5pm advisory still has her moving north west at 5mph, iam not buying it!
NHC has her at 3 mph.
Urgent as storm moves onshore!
Things to Know BEFORE A HURRICANE THREATENS
Elevation Of Your Home Above Sea Level
Get this information from the office of the Emergency Management Coordinator (EMC). Your nearest Weather Service office can supply flood-stage data for area streams and waterways. Find out if your home is subject to storm surge (tidal) flooding.
Maximum Storm Surge Which Might Occur
Information about the potential for inland flooding and storm surge is available through your local EMC or website.
Route To Safety If You Have To Leave
Plan your escape route early. Check with your local Emergency Managment Center or web site for low points and flooding history of your route.
Check the number of hours it could take you to evacuate to a safe area during peak evacuation traffic.

For the members who think that this message is not appropriate please ignore it.
As this is a Public forum sponsored By Dr. Masters it is not the specific property nor is it under the control of any group.
There are many members who do not spend 18 hours per day following a specific weather system. We recently have had a severe loss of life just because many did not know what to do because their local agency did NOT warn them.
While it is understood that some members are interested in traveling to where the system may make landfall, you must try & understand that many more people just stop by & read posts. If the fact that some warnings are posted a few times per day/ new Blogg we apologize. However there are people who need to see these messages. If you must be Rude, and or childish please do it in you own blogg. Hourly messages were not posted. The heading was just because the weather system started to move
Even a weak storm will produce torential rains, and the strong gusts will certainly knock down some trees.

All sources say NW 3mph... think this is it, the final leg until landfall??