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Dolly intensifying rapidly as it approaches landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:18 PM GMT on July 23, 2008

Hurricane Dolly is putting on a impressive burst of rapid intensification as it approaches landfall on the Texas coast near Brownsville. Reports from the Hurricane Hunters show that Dolly's pressure is dropping rapidly, down 12 mb in just five hours, to 964 mb (as of the 9:17 am EDT Hurricane Hunter eye report). Dolly's central pressure dropped 15 mb in the 18 hours previous to that, so this is an impressive sudden drop this morning. Radar imagery out of Brownsville, Texas shows an well-organized hurricane, with excellent spiral banding and a 20-mile diameter eye. Visible satellite loops show an impressive eye, excellent upper-level outflow, and good symmetry. It's a good thing Dolly does not have another 24 hours over water, or it would have become a major hurricane. It takes a while for the winds of a hurricane to respond to a rapid pressure fall, and Dolly's winds do not yet reflect the recent big drop in pressure. The peak surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument on the latest Hurricane Hunter mission were 70 knots (81 mph), at 9:17 am EDT. Dolly's winds should rise above 100 mph in the next few hours.


Figure 1. Radar image of Dolly at 6:04 am CDT, several hours before landfall. During a rapid intensification phase as Dolly neared landfall, small "mesovorticies" formed in the eyewall. In the image above, you can see that the eye is distorted by the presence of four of these small vorticies embedded in the eyewall. These vorticies are several kilometers across, and have concentrated areas of very high winds capable of doing much heavier damage than the rest of the eyewall's winds.

The intensity forecast
Dolly should keep intensifying right up until landfall, now just hours away. A Category 2 hurricane is likely at landfall. Once inland, Dolly will decay to tropical storm intensity within six hours.

Links to follow:
Brownsville, TX long range radar
Texas marine forecasts and observations
Brownsville, TX weather
Corpus Christi, TX weather


Figure 2. Evacuation zones for Category 1,2,3,4,5 hurricanes. The city of Brownsville needs to evacuate only for a Category 5 hurricane. Image credit: Texas division of emergency management.

Damage expected from Dolly
It appears portions of Dolly's eyewall will pass directly over the sister cities of Brownsville, Texas, and Matamoros, in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas. Storm surge damage will be limited, due to the fact that these cities are 20-25 miles inland from the coast (Figure 2). Dolly's expected storm surge of 4-6 feet will mostly affect uninhabited sections of Padre Island, on the right side of where the 20-mile diameter eye is coming ashore. Wind damage is the primary threat from Dolly, along with flash flooding from heavy rains. Hurricane Bret spawned two damaging tornadoes in the region in 1999, and we can expect Dolly to spawn a few tornadoes as well. I expect considerable wind damage from Dolly, exceeding $100 million.

I'll have an update this afternoon, with a look at the rest of the tropics.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



South Padre Island...
2 more hours!!!!!!! this is the longest dodge ball game i think i have ever seen and yet sooooo close.
Ugh. South Padre Island and Port Isabel are really getting hammered. Cantore has retreated inside and says it is too dangerous to be outside. Substantial roof damage to his hotel.
1005. HONDO5
Houseofg!

I live in san antonio and a condo in south padre...I think the weather channel has done an awesome job on coverage...95% coverage for the last 24 hrs with Jim in spi and Mike in Brownsville.....Have you even watched the weather channel??
1009. Drakoen
I don't know why anyone would be outside in a category 2 hurricane. Especially if you are feeling some of the worst affect the storm has to offer.
any damage reports yet from sp?
heh i knew someone would get a laugh outta that.
97L doesn't have much convection and the wave behing is atleast 7-8 degs further south and 15 degs further East (inland) so no chance of any interaction between the two and each will take different path if they develop...in my opinion!
Hey there seems like things turned for the worse in the tropics. Theyll rebuild. At least with Wilma it was nice and cool afterwards. These people in Texas it is going to be hot.
Quoting Alexking:
Quoting pipelines:
I know a lot of people have been talking negatively this year about the NHC, but I must admit I'm pretty impressed with them so far this year. They've pretty much nailed the forcast for the first two canes of the season in path and intensity, let's see if they can keep it up.


I dont think you should say that if you were living above Brownsville and lost a familymember.NHC made it look as there was no danger overthere.


She's making landfall in the same/adjacent county as Brownsville, considering the forcast was made days in advance and it is that close is excellent, if the forcast was always that accurate then many future lives would be saved.

Plus, anyone that doesn't prepare for a hurricane because "it is supposed to make landfall in the county adjacent to mine" needs a lesson or two, the eye is the diameter of a county in itself.
1017. CapnJak
rodrigo0, Is that Cantore's dad?
1018. help4u
Post 1002,HOPE ALL IS WELL WITH YOU.
might not be a port isabel landfall, but they're getting the worst of Dolly right now.
1021. BA
not all parts of harlingen lost power, talking to my mother on the phone right now and she still has power (she lives in harlingen)
1002. LakeShadow 1:06 PM EDT on July 23, 2008
Of course God stops hurricanes!! Who do you think put the land there, to disrupt that circulation and make them go away???

Otherwise they'd just keep circulating the globe and being a nuisance . . .
1024. Hhunter
spi getting hammered by southern eye...
Tourism is one of the major industries in south texas year round. This will be a big economic blow if there is any signficant damage
I don't think the NHC should be to blame as much as the local mets should. A rain maker someone quoted their local met as saying yesterday. Those guys should be fired! People put much more stock into those they watch everyday on t.v. and not TWC or NHC. Unfortunately for some, they are learning a hard lesson. Hopefully, those same people won't be making the same mistakes again. TX-I believe your friend's husband will be the worse judge and jury that she could endure!
Quoting CapnJak:
rodrigo0, Is that Cantore's dad?


The photo says: A man holds on to a sign as the eyewall of Hurricane Dolly bears down on South Padre Island, Texas on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. (AP Photo/San Antonio Express-News, Jerry Lara)
1033. Hhunter
don't need power to have a land line phone... cells still work...but winds picking up alot...dark zone though has not completely arrived
Quoting Drakoen:
I don't know why anyone would be outside in a category 2 hurricane. Especially if you are feeling some of the worst affect the storm has to offer.
I've actually been out in one, to take pictures of the wind, but I never actually got off my porch. And I didn't stay out long - the wind was too freaky.

This reminds me: did kman ever get his hurricane-proof windows installed?
1038. joemix
Hi all. The NHC has been most accurate in dealing with Cristobal and Dolly, both very different storms and in very different conditions, Those here that I've grown to trust also mostly held to the NHC solutions. For this to be, early in the season, is most comforting for all of us with great interest at stake. Thanks to the NHC and to the dedicated people here.
I think damage is already done to the tourist economy for S TX.
1041. BA
Quoting Hhunter:
don't need power to have a land line phone... cells still work...but winds picking up alot...dark zone though has not completely arrived


only a small part of harlingen lost power according to my mother...just talked to her and they haven't even had a power glitch at her house yet (she lives in harlingen)

the crazy part is she said most people didn't even board up in her neighborhood, they got all boarded up yesterday
#995 Are you in Harlnigen? Where is the cell info coming from?

TR
Levee Map Lower Rio Grande:

Link
1044. Hhunter
storm any feel on how the eye will impact harlingen, you familiar with the geography.. i am thinking theywill get the mean part of the southern eyewall. they are about 20-30 miles inland from where the lower 1/3 of eye currently is.
cell towers do require electricity, but most towers and switches have generators that automatically turn on when the electricity goes out.
Yeah I was critical of the NHC on their forecasting of Rita. I took some heat here about it especially from nash. Obviously the NHC has changed leadership and appears to be more accurate. Nobody can complain about the track of the storm I believe.

Hey, for all the NHC bashers, 2 points:

1. The storm is currently positioned almost exactly where they forecast it to be on Monday evening. I mean within 5 miles, man. It's ridiculous for people to be talking the foolishness they are.

2. EVERY SINGLE NHC DISCUSSION and advisory in the last 3 days or so has explicitly stated that ANYWHERE in that cone was likely to be the landfall point. So if you live in Corpus and you didn't do anything, it's not the NHC's fault, bud.

I've said it before. People need to read (and listen) better before they spout off their mouths.
1049. Drakoen
Quoting BahaHurican:
Quoting Drakoen:
I don't know why anyone would be outside in a category 2 hurricane. Especially if you are feeling some of the worst affect the storm has to offer.
I've actually been out in one, to take pictures of the wind, but I never actually got off my porch. And I didn't stay out long - the wind was too freaky.

This reminds me: did kman ever get his hurricane-proof windows installed?


That guys is in the middle of the street. He better hold on.
1038. joemix

Well put joemix. I printed out the forecast track from the NHC on Monday when Dolly was still over the Yucatan and even though it was still 3-4 days out they predicted the landfall along the TX/MX border just slightly south of where Dolly has now started to turn inland. Hats off to the NHC on this one.
1052. Hhunter
i am in cell and text contact with family in harlingen.. i am in Austin... born and raised in the RGV..mainly communicating with my brother and his wife.
OK, so I'm trying to learn as I watch this unfold - what is steering Dolly right now and for the next few hours?
Twc has the eye moving onshore finally
Dolly's eye is falling apart, but at the same time it is almost like she is trying to make her eye tighter and stay over water.
1056. centex
it might eventually get out of the older cones further inland
by and large the NHC does an exceptional job...I certainly believe I get my moneys' worth from them....
The main flooding threat for the Rio Grande is yet to come. Due to the way the Rio Grande watershed is shaped, most of the river flooding won't begin until Dolly moves inland into Mexico, where the watershed will catch most of the heavy rain...



Rio Grande watershed. Note that a large area of the watershed is in NE Mexico.
1059. BA
#1047

Joe Bastardi called the landfall and intensity before if even crossed the Yucatan (he was nearly dead on this time)...not sure why people have to bash any of the pros...it is what they do for a living, I definitely wouldn't listen to half of the mumbo jumbo attempted wannabe forecasts we see here.
1060. Levi32
1053. AweStorm 9:24 AM AKDT on July 23, 2008

The upper-level ridge to Dolly's north is what is steering her. This ridge weakened yesterday and today which allowed Dolly to move northwest/NNW. This ridge will slowly build back in late this afternoon and tonight and Dolly will gradually curve to the west in response. Overall very slow movement though which won't help rain amounts.
1061. Hhunter
42,000 without power in Harlingen...that is 90% of the area...
1062. PBG00
1059

Wise choice!
1063. Drakoen
Port Isabel reporting wind gust of 70mph. That could knock out some power.
1053.
-----------
From what I've been looking at I would say the coastline has been steering it.
1066. centex
I bet standing on top of the causeway about now would be very scary.
1053 The storm is being steered by the large ridge of hot high pressure over the center of the country. The steering is not very strong which is why movement is slow.
Is the ridge building over Texas killing the storms off the coast of Galveston.. before they even make it on shore?
Link
Thank you Levi. How can I see the ridge? Which products can show me that?

Quoting Levi32:
1053. AweStorm 9:24 AM AKDT on July 23, 2008

The upper-level ridge to Dolly's north is what is steering her. This ridge weakened yesterday and today which allowed Dolly to move northwest/NNW. This ridge will slowly build back in late this afternoon and tonight and Dolly will gradually curve to the west in response. Overall very slow movement though which won't help rain amounts.
1070. nash28
Quoting Alexking:
Stiil no landfall and the longer it takes how more wrong the NHC is.


Man, you are one touched individual.
yep, landfall is going to be pretty much at the county line.
1072. Levi32
1059. BA 9:26 AM AKDT on July 23, 2008

Thank you so much BA. Everyone bashes poor JB, but he hit this storm dead on with only a 60-mile error 5 days out. Pretty dang good! In my opinion he's one of the best mets that ever lived, and probably the best living right now. Who cares if he's in the private sector? Kudos to him....and kudos to the NHC which did a spectacular job after Dolly got into the GOM, but they didn't do so well at all in the Caribbean.
1073. Hhunter
brother going outside to shore something up..lost a panel i think..
1039. DestinJeff 1:17 PM EDT on July 23, 2008
Even with a sock in it i can write,lol

got to give credit for the "touche" response there.


It was a metaphor, dood. LOL [fights mental image of AlexKing, smelly sock in mouth, typing away furiously]


1046. gulfscout 1:22 PM EDT on July 23, 2008
Yeah I was critical of the NHC on their forecasting of Rita. I took some heat here about it especially from nash. Obviously the NHC has changed leadership and appears to be more accurate. Nobody can complain about the track of the storm I believe.


I genuinely don't believe it's the leadership as much as the technology. 2004 and 2005 gave the NHC lots of ammo to refine and revise their existing technolology, especially in terms of the model software. I'm noticing the models are doing a much better job of defining all the reasonable possibilities, probably because they are making better use of the input data and have better control over the possible alternative scenarios.

I think they are probably getting a better / more thorough range of data from their data sources, however. Isn't some of the scatterometer info coming from the EUMet's satellite? This makes me feel a bit better about the forecasters kicking that guy to the curb over Quikscat. I can understand their wanting to get the latest possible thing going in the air instead of a "quikfix".
1075. Drakoen
Quoting nash28:
Quoting Alexking:
Stiil no landfall and the longer it takes how more wrong the NHC is.


Man, you are one touched individual.


Nash let it go lol. Put him on ignore like the rest of us.
1076. Hhunter
He nailed this storm...he is the man...regardless of what anyone says...long live bastardi..
Dolly lashes Texas coast as Category 2 hurricane
- more.

BROWNSVILLE, Texas - Hurricane Dolly churned into a Category 2 storm as its eye neared the Texas-Mexico border Wednesday, bringing fierce winds and heavy rains that blew down signs, damaged an apartment complex and knocked out electricity to thousands.

Forecasters warned of up to 15 inches of rain that could produce flooding and breach levees in the heavily populated Rio Grande Valley. Thunderstorms were attributed to Dolly as far away as Houston, 400 miles up the Texas coastline.

In Mexico, fields were filling with water, palm trees were bent over in the wind and beaches were closed to the public.

Maria Miguel, 102, and seven family members fled their wooden shack in the Mexican fishing community of Higuerilla and spent the night at a convention center-turned-shelter in Matamoros. "I don't know if my poor house will withstand the rain and wind," Miguel said.

Mexican soldiers made a last-minute attempt to rescue people at the mouth of the Rio Grande. The soldiers battled storm-charged waves in an inflatable raft to rescue at least one family trapped in their home, while others further inland were still refusing to go to government shelters, said Matamoros spokeswoman Leticia Montalvo.

"These are people who did not want to leave, and now they are in trouble," Montalvo said.

1078. Levi32
1069. AweStorm 9:29 AM AKDT on July 23, 2008

Here are the upper-level satellite winds. You can clearly see the trough which weakened the high over the eastern US.

Good 'ole water-vapor imagery is also very good for seeing ridges/troughs.
txalwaysprepared

That's the only thing I can figure. Had a couple good t-storms roll through Galv. Bay early this morning, but just a few sprinkles since. Tide's running a foot or two above normal.
Quoting Alexking:
Stiil no landfall and the longer it takes how more wrong the NHC is.

Are you watching a hurricane on a different planet? It sure seems that way.

If you make a statement please provide facts to back up your statement. Otherwise, please stop posting if you have nothing of value to add.
1067.
-----------
If that ridge was in the drivers seat would it not be heading west?
1083. Drakoen
South Padre islands now reporting gusts up to 80mph with sustained winds at moderate tropical storm force.
1085. nash28
The skill in track forecasting has gotten better and more refined each year.

Intensity forecasts are extremely difficult and are very hit and miss.
1086. Levi32
CIMSS Steering-layer product also shows the ridge.
Dolly made landfall at about 1:26 PM, the eye is now over the Islands off Texas, which does count as part of Texas.
Matamoros:

#1045 Although a lot do, depending on the company, most will require a portable generator because the cost of a permanent padmount gen at each site is extremely costly.
South Padre Island



HQ
With all due respect there are a few in here that are Mets and due a great job in info for us all..... Yes you are right The NWC and NHC are very good at giving info out.... I too have seen this unfold and even made my best gess at this 3 or 4 days ago.... But I will be the 1st to tell you I have no clue on when or even where it was to go..... I take good info from them all and then just wait and see..... Most of the time I am wrong with where I think they go....

Taco :0)
1095. Hhunter
geography lesson..harlingen is located...if you follow the evacuation map on Dr's blog. follow hgwy83 to the east. It dead ends in another big highway called 77 that goes up to raymondville. that intersection is the north west side of Harlingen.
So Dolly made landfall.....I thought she was parrelling the coast????...pictures from the weather channel in Brownsvile showed it getting very little effects....
Levi - Thank you so much! I can't afford to go to Met school... but hopefully I can learn a lot here.
.
Quoting Levi32:
1059. BA 9:26 AM AKDT on July 23, 2008

Thank you so much BA. Everyone bashes poor JB, but he hit this storm dead on with only a 60-mile error 5 days out. Pretty dang good! In my opinion he's one of the best mets that ever lived, and probably the best living right now. Who cares if he's in the private sector? Kudos to him....and kudos to the NHC which did a spectacular job after Dolly got into the GOM, but they didn't do so well at all in the Caribbean.



That would be Dr William Gray for tropical.

However I do agree Joe is usually very good.
1059. BA

Then why are you here?
Quoting MysteryMeat:
We're missing the most important issue: WHERE IS STEPHANIE ABRAMS?
Some of our minds are not that enquiring . . .
#1052 Keep us posted please. Especially any cell info you hear of.

TR
Levi32-I'm more of color person. What do the brown shades show? Just as with the gray and darker almost black shades on those maps? Just trying to learn what everyone else knows so that it isn't so frustrating trying to figure it out. Also, the last CIMSS map. How is that interpreted? TIA!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dolly made landfall at about 1:26 PM, the eye is now over the Islands off Texas, which does count as part of Texas.

But i thought the center of the eye had to reach land for official landfall.
1107. Dave30
Whats the link to the stream from the chasers out there again? Are they still up?
1045. Yes, but all it takes is a tree falling on the lines to break the connection. If you have a landline, it will work without power, but you need a phone that does not need to be plugged in to use it! Always keep your cell phone charged and an older phone around. The wireless house phones are useless unless you have your OWN generator to power it. I should talk, I have VOIP now and I will pay for it one day....but it IS cheap!
1109. Levi32
Dolly is minutes away from making landfall on South Padre Island, although I'm unsure whether that island would count as landfall or if they'll wait until she hits mainland Texas.



1110. OUSHAWN
I want to give thanks and praise right now to all the wonderful bloggers on here who have given their insight and helped us who are less knowledgeable with their views and opinions of Dolly's process. I've had to eat my share of crow concerning Dolly but I have no problem with it because I know I did my best to express my opinion on what I felt Dolly would do and I've learned quite a bit through this.

There are those who have called me a wishcaster, those who have called me a jerk and an a-hole, and those who claim I don't know a damn thing about what I'm talking about. That's fine...you can't please everyone. However, there are those who have complimented me and backed me up and to those I say thank you.

When you throw out the trolls on here there are some extremely intelligent people on here who have great knowledge and experience and can really contribute and help those of us who are not. Here are just a few and I know there are more but they are including as well.

StormW
Drakoen
TampaSpin
extreme246
Ike

Like I said, there are many more but don't want to take up too much of the blog here. Thanks again to all and let's just pray for all those being effected by Dolly.
Dolly slowly pulling away from Brownsville & SPI

1112. Drakoen
Quoting OUSHAWN:
I want to give thanks and praise right now to all the wonderful bloggers on here who have given their insight and helped us who are less knowledgeable with their views and opinions of Dolly's process. I've had to eat my share of crow concerning Dolly but I have no problem with it because I know I did my best to express my opinion on what I felt Dolly would do and I've learned quite a bit through this.

There are those who have called me a wishcaster, those who have called me a jerk and an a-hole, and those who claim I don't know a damn thing about what I'm talking about. That's fine...you can't please everyone. However, there are those who have complimented me and backed me up and to those I say thank you.

When you throw out the trolls on here there are some extremely intelligent people on here who have great knowledge and experience and can really contribute and help those of us who are not. Here are just a few and I know there are more but they are including as well.

StormW
Drakeon
TampaSpin
extreme246
Ike

Like I said, there are many more but don't want to take up too much of the blog here. Thanks again to all and let's just pray for all those being effected by Dolly.


You spelled my handle wrong...
Quoting setfree7:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dolly made landfall at about 1:26 PM, the eye is now over the Islands off Texas, which does count as part of Texas.

But i thought the center of the eye had to reach land for official landfall.

not a landfall for hours.Its just a touch of the coast.
It is gone much more north before we can speak of a landfall.
South Padre Island is a city. It should count as landfall.
Here is the first forecast map on Dolly. Look at the five-day forecast point. The only difference between then and now landfallwise is the date.



OK, and the intensity . . . LOL
Yes very well worded OUSHAWN thank you for everyone who helped me understand this storm especially Tampa! This was quite a storm guess we better get ready for the next one!
1117. Drakoen
Dolly should be making landfall any minute now.
1118. Levi32
1104. jaxbeachbum 9:40 AM AKDT on July 23, 2008

Brown shades.....I think you're talking about the water vapor loop? If so....the brown would be very dry air.....and as you can see on the color scale at the bottom brighter brown and eventually black indicate EXTREMELY dry air. As you get up into the grays and blues the air becomes more moist.

CIMSS upper-air map you can see the wind barbs indicating the direction of the winds at about 30-50 thousand feet in the atmosphere. The blue barbs are at about 50000 feet, yellow at 35000 feet, and green at about 25000 feet.

Steering layer map shows the main air flow at certain levels. The one I posted is for a hurricane of Dolly's intensity, which is steered at about the 25000ft level. You can see the clockwise oval north of Dolly, which is the ridge currently steering her. The trough over the eastern US which weakened the high is visible exactly as its name portrays....a trough...a dip in the airflow over the SE US, which pressed down on the high and weakened it, allowing Dolly to drift north over the last 2 days.

Hope that helps.
Levi, barrier islands have to count; otherwise all those OBX landfalls wouldn't count either . . .
1121. Xion
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting OUSHAWN:
I want to give thanks and praise right now to all the wonderful bloggers on here who have given their insight and helped us who are less knowledgeable with their views and opinions of Dolly's process. I've had to eat my share of crow concerning Dolly but I have no problem with it because I know I did my best to express my opinion on what I felt Dolly would do and I've learned quite a bit through this.

There are those who have called me a wishcaster, those who have called me a jerk and an a-hole, and those who claim I don't know a damn thing about what I'm talking about. That's fine...you can't please everyone. However, there are those who have complimented me and backed me up and to those I say thank you.

When you throw out the trolls on here there are some extremely intelligent people on here who have great knowledge and experience and can really contribute and help those of us who are not. Here are just a few and I know there are more but they are including as well.

StormW
Drakeon
TampaSpin
extreme246
Ike

Like I said, there are many more but don't want to take up too much of the blog here. Thanks again to all and let's just pray for all those being effected by Dolly.


You spelled my handle wrong...


LOL

Your name just doesn't make sense to many of us.
Google earth - recent radar image overlay - Harlingten looks like it is outside the very worst portion of the eyewall - but I'm not sure what this image says beyond that.

Wow. Imminent landfall and the northcasting continues unabated.
HEY FLOOD
Quoting OUSHAWN:
I want to give thanks and praise right now to all the wonderful bloggers on here who have given their insight and helped us who are less knowledgeable with their views and opinions of Dolly's process. I've had to eat my share of crow concerning Dolly but I have no problem with it because I know I did my best to express my opinion on what I felt Dolly would do and I've learned quite a bit through this.

There are those who have called me a wishcaster, those who have called me a jerk and an a-hole, and those who claim I don't know a damn thing about what I'm talking about. That's fine...you can't please everyone. However, there are those who have complimented me and backed me up and to those I say thank you.

When you throw out the trolls on here there are some extremely intelligent people on here who have great knowledge and experience and can really contribute and help those of us who are not. Here are just a few and I know there are more but they are including as well.

StormW
Drakeon
TampaSpin
extreme246
Ike

Like I said, there are many more but don't want to take up too much of the blog here. Thanks again to all and let's just pray for all those being effected by Dolly.


I would agree with STORMW...but Ike, Extreme and Tampa Spin....yikes! Drak basically copies what the NHC says!
1126. Levi32
Recon found pressure steady at 966mb.
1127. Drakoen
Quoting Xion:
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting OUSHAWN:


You spelled my handle wrong...


LOL

Your name just doesn't make sense to many of us.


I made up the name. Not suppose to make sense if one doesn't see it to.
1120. Alexking

*POOF!*

Off here for a week and in the first ten minutes...some kind of record?
1130. Drakoen
Quoting BahaHurican:
Levi, barrier islands have to count; otherwise all those OBX landfalls wouldn't count either . . .


Then we should be getting an update from the NHC soon saying the system has made landfall.
This storm has been going to landfall shortly since 8AM....LMAO
1132. GKP
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dolly made landfall at about 1:26 PM, the eye is now over the Islands off Texas, which does count as part of Texas.


How can it hit aat 1:26 pm when it is only 12:50 pm in Tex right now?
I'm not sure the center of the eye is quite to the barrier island...but very close.
Alex is like Bertha and Dolly Just hanging on and on and on
rareaire, how you doin? Looks like my estimates may have been a bit wrong...you may be passing through DFW in a few days after all...I'll let you know
Quoting FranAteMyRoof96:
Wow. Imminent landfall and the northcasting continues unabated.
Well, the storm is kinda meandering north . . . still well within the NHC's forecast, mind you.
1137. Hhunter
Harlingen...damage report...my brother has now lost a big tree and a large part of his fence...still storm out a ways.. from them.
1131. It's only moving 7 mph, so it takes a long time to go 30 miles.
1140. Drakoen
Quoting DestinJeff:
1112. Drakoen 1:44 PM CDT on July 23, 2008

now that is the kind of sarcasm that is funny.


I'm just giving OUSHAWN a good ol' ribbin'.
FLOOD I SURE HOPE SO WERE READY
1142. Levi32
000
URNT12 KNHC 231748
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/17:33:50Z
B. 26 deg 16 min N
097 deg 06 min W
C. NA mb 2814 m
D. 69 kt
E. 165 deg 10 nm
F. 252 deg 064 kt
G. 166 deg 012 nm
H. 967 mb
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 16 C/ 3099 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. C22
M. CLOSED
N. 12345/
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1904A DOLLY OB 39
MAX FL WIND 86 KT NE QUAD 10:31:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 85 KT N QUAD 17:41:00 Z
;


Steady as she goes......10 minutes from landfall on South Padre Island.

1132. GKP

Because that blogger is on the east coast
Mexican media is reporting extensive damage in Matamoros. Power lines down, no phone, no electricity, no tv, no radio, no water...
1145. OUSHAWN
Drak...

I realized it after I had already posted it but it took me forever to finally get it changed...was having a problem being able to edit it. I hope they can get that fixed somehow so it's not that difficult to edit something.

Anyway, it is changed now.
Hey Flood. You missed all the . .. excitement (not to mention about 30 trolls).
Off here for a week and in the first ten minutes...some kind of record?
What happened to the imposter from last week? Executed?
1148. centex
Still looks like heading for Baffin Bay. Wonder when left turn starts.
Quoting GKP:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dolly made landfall at about 1:26 PM, the eye is now over the Islands off Texas, which does count as part of Texas.


How can it hit aat 1:26 pm when it is only 12:50 pm in Tex right now?


LOL!!! Fortune teller.. he knew the entire time. Just testing all of us.. LOL!!!
Regarding storm track... in the absence of steering by the environmental wind or inner-core processes, hurricanes tend to generally drift north and west due to the change of Coriolis with latitude, a.k.a. "beta drift":

http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/search?id=beta-drift1

The dynamical tropical cyclone models, such as the GFDL and HWRF, account for this process.
1151. ATS3
cchs????????????????????????????????????
When do they update the models for invest 97? the last time was 2pm yesterday?
Hi Flood! Good to see you! I'm just lurking today but wanted to say Hi!
Quoting rareaire:
FLOOD I SURE HOPE SO WERE READY


Mail, rare
1155. Hhunter
yep, but have not seen the post yet.
Still headed North before it makes landfall.
Very nicely done, StormW! Great character!
1159. Drakoen
It would be nice to get some webcam feed on what's going on outside...
OK
1161. GKP
Quoting Floodman:
1132. GKP

Because that blogger is on the east coast


Ahh Ok well he's an hour ahead of our time!
I know I'm just a dumb noob, but if you watch the radar loops instead of the sat loops, you can see that Dolly has been going NW all morning. All those little wobbles that make you think it's going north don't show up on the radar as much.
Drak there was a pier cam posted back about 5 pages.
For those interested in following the storm relative to Harlingen - or any area - you can download the radar image in a google earth compatible file here

I used the single image by radar file for Brownsville in Composite. Download the file and open it in google earth. You might need to restart google earth to get it to work.
1168. centex
This is going to be a slow stretched out landfall. From left eye wall starting at Port Isabel to right eye wall near Baffin bay.
Quoting centex:
Still looks like heading for Baffin Bay. Wonder when left turn starts.


I have seen a pattern of storms coming in the general area that Dolly is in, then hitting the intercoastal waterway and drifting north a ways. I've been in the area all my life (52 YO) and have noticed it several times.
Oh No Super Dave is on TWC and I know he will be funny....
1110. OUSHAWN

Well written OUSHAWN, you help make this a great blog despite the trolls we can't seem to get rid of! Glad we talked through our differences in civil manner LOL!

Prayers out to all those affected in Texas and Mexico, those of us from Florida know all too well what you are going through.
1173. bethie
Hello All... Thanks for the updates one and all. My parents winter home in San Benito has some damage reported this morning. I am grateful that they moved off of SPI a few years ago. We understand that SPI is taking a hard hit. Hopefully the worst is to the south on Boca Chica... no homes / hotels / condos there. Be safe everyone...
Actually OUSHAWN, you did a pretty good job with this. You didn't jump with the exciting positive changes Dolly kept hinting at but instead tried to look at the overall picture to see what kept causing you to think as you did. I was impressed by that.

I found that Dolly was a good challenge because one had to keep looking at the data to try to justify what was (or wasn't) happening with her. This made me better at interpreting what I was seeing.

I also learned not to rule things out (Dolly's never going to make it) and to try to understand WHY others were making the forecasts they made (e. g. TampaSpin, who I didn't always agree with forecast-wise lol).

It's all a learning experience. Even learning how to disagree without getting into a fight about it was a lesson well learned, IMO.
1175. BA
Quoting StormW:
1059. BA 1:26 PM EDT on July 23, 2008
#1047

Joe Bastardi called the landfall and intensity before if even crossed the Yucatan (he was nearly dead on this time)...not sure why people have to bash any of the pros...it is what they do for a living, I definitely wouldn't listen to half of the mumbo jumbo attempted wannabe forecasts we see here.

???????????????????????????????????


StormW: I am talking about all these random people coming on here saying it's going to TX/LA border, it's dead, it's going to cat5, etc etc... I am not talking about Jeff, yourself or any of the other excellent posters.
1176. Drakoen
They need to get Jim back out there.
1177. Hhunter
parents feel like its blowing so hard they may loose roof...harlingen..still have power...but on hospital circuit...getting big gusts as i talk to them and type...still more to come.
Very revealing post Rodrigo_I hope somebody helped that mature gentleman. He probably was caught by surprice by a big blow.
AP NewsAlert: Forecasters say Hurricane Dolly makes landfall as Category 2 storm in South Texas along the Texas-Mexico border.

If center of eye is landfall, i think this shows landfall.
1182. Drakoen
ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

AT 1 PM CDT THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST...MAKING LANDFALL ON SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND...ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS OR 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RAYMONDVILLE.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Any damage reports out of spi?
1185. Levi32
ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

AT 1 PM CDT THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST...MAKING LANDFALL ON SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND...ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS OR 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RAYMONDVILLE.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Hey everyone,

I had just enough time to make one really quick post here before I head out the door. I thought it might be helpful to share the specific NHC guidelines for determining an "official" landfall locality. Simply put, landfall occurs when the absolute "center" of the eye itself "intersects" the shoreline. In other words, the point where exactly 1/2 of the "eye" itself first comes ashore. I hope this helps, and I want to wish you all a great rest of the day.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
Heres a little note of interest.
Dolly is the Strongest US landfalling System since
Hurricane Wilma of 2005.
1139. Very nicely done, StormW! Great character!

In addition to your weather forecasting skills, that's the kind of demeanor myself and this blog has come to appreciate from you.

You set the bar and others would do well to follow! Top of the day to you, sir! Thanks!
dunno why my images don't work
1190. BA
yeah my mom just told me they live an area with buried power cables, I guess that is why they were still with power, I will be checking in on her shortly
[Well, that was slow of me.]

Drak, at least it's pretty unique, that handle. Not like Baha and Baja . . . and all the different hurricanes we have around the blog . . .LOL
Dolly is heading back to the water.
No landfall.
1193. CJ5
Quoting Drakoen: You spelled my name handle wrong

and you wonder why they call you Drak.
yep, here's some documentation on definition of landfall.
Link
1197. Drakoen
Quoting ncforecaster:
Hey everyone,

I had just enough time to make one really quick post here before I head out the door. I thought it might be helpful to share the specific NHC guidelines for determining an "official" landfall locality. Simply put, landfall occurs when the absolute "center" of the eye itself "intersects" the shoreline. In other words, the point where exactly 1/2 of the "eye" itself first comes ashore. I hope this helps, and I want to wish you all a great rest of the day.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony



Yep that's correct.
Dolly is heading back to the water.
No landfall.

Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee's back:)
Strong band on the mainland coast

1138. rwdobson
----------------
Could you please explain why the storm center has been following the coastline all this morning? Is it possible for the storms friction along the caost to steer the storm in absense of genuine steering winds?
1201. Hhunter
big flood warning to the west of spi. port isabel and east of harlingen..rain...surge related?
I'm ususally a lurker, but does anybody know if the wind reports are less than what is actually occurring. The sustained winds for Brownsville and spi are all in the 40s(mph), but no higher. Jim Cantori was just on talking about significant wind damage too, so it would seem like winds would be more like 60-80 sustained. Do instruments tend to malfunction in these winds, or are some of the weather stations not sited in open areas?
1203. Drakoen
Quoting CJ5:
Quoting Drakoen: You spelled my name handle wrong

and you wonder why they call you Drak.


I looked up Drak on dictionary.com and apparently it's Czech and Slovak for dragon: a mythical beast, a usually large, winged, fire-breathing reptile.
What I'm trying to figure out is Watching the reporters in Dolly standing out in the open...
can you say flying debree.
I know it gives a reality to them but one day one of them won't see something comming.
1205. OUSHAWN
Thank you all for your kind words...it means a lot.
Not the fake NHC statement though. They should have banned them.
FLOOD MAIL?
1208. centex
She has been knocking on the door, this time she opened it and looked in.
Sorry if I sounded to harsh with you earlier. btw are you an ou alumni?
Quoting rareaire:
FLOOD MAIL?


try again...the blasted phone is about to light up...and I won't even tell tyou about the email I've been seeing today
talk about ripping her eye open at landfall!
1214. Drakoen
Quoting DestinJeff:
I looked up Drak on dictionary.com and apparently it's Czech for dragon: a mythical beast, a usually large, winged, fire-breathing reptile

... that marries a donkey and befriends and ogre.


?
* at 1250 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar
indicated flash flooding from rainfall of five inches per hour
from a large squall of showers and thunderstorms from 16 miles
northwest of Port Isabel to Port Isabel... moving west at 8 mph.

* Squalls with torrential rain will be near...
Holly Beach.
South Padre Island.
Laguna Vista.
Laguna Heights.
1210. Funny! LOL
1217. Squid28
Quoting Hhunter:
big flood warning to the west of spi. port isabel and east of harlingen..rain...surge related?


I would say at a minimum it is storm related. When the storms come onshore they "pile up" the water in the bays, bayous, etc. They basically keep a lot of things from being able to drain to the sea. Right now, Houstons tides are about 4' higher than normal so they tides down the coast in areas that did not experience the surge are easily running 5'+ over standard level.
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting CJ5:
Quoting Drakoen: You spelled my name handle wrong

and you wonder why they call you Drak.


I looked up Drak on dictionary.com and apparently it's Czech for dragon: a mythical beast, a usually large, winged, fire-breathing reptile.


I googled, this is what it said. Drakoen Bloodlust - 80 Barbarian Warrior [Druzzil Ro]
1220. Drakoen
Quoting ncleclerc:
1210. Funny! LOL


Is that from Shrek?
Radar-estimated precip totals are already approaching 20 inches in the southern eyewall just north of the TX/MX border in an area that still has ~50 dBZ reflectivities and ~6/hour rainfall rates. Incredible!
Hey everyone! I have been new to this blog, only for the past few weeks or so, and boy have I learned alot. I think Dolly was a good way to start out the learning process because she was a real trickster. But the NHC did a great job of forecasting path and intensity. Thanks to all on this site for the good debates and informative discussions.

On to the next storm - 97L. Drak, what are your thoughts on your wave?
Well, since Dolly seems to be dragon things out . . .

I'll BRB
1224. OUSHAWN
1211...

No problem. I didn't take it that way anyway.

No, my dad grew up in Norman and went to all the home football games and became a huge Sooner fan and of course passed it on to me. I'm now passing it on to my nephew who is 7. I already have him humming "Boomer Sooner"...lol.
1226. BA
just hung up with my mother (in harlingen), they still have power, her home phone is down but she was talking to me from her cell phone
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting DestinJeff:
I looked up Drak on dictionary.com and apparently it's Czech for dragon: a mythical beast, a usually large, winged, fire-breathing reptile

... that marries a donkey and befriends and ogre.


?


Not sure what that is all about but its the Dragon from the Shreck movie. ?????
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I'm ususally a lurker, but does anybody know if the wind reports are less than what is actually occurring. The sustained winds for Brownsville and spi are all in the 40s(mph), but no higher. Jim Cantori was just on talking about significant wind damage too, so it would seem like winds would be more like 60-80 sustained. Do instruments tend to malfunction in these winds, or are some of the weather stations not sited in open areas?


Anemometers normally fail at considerably higher winds than that...for example, the anemomoeter at the Slidell airport in LA during Katrina registered 131 before it failed, and the gusts were far higher than that. PLacement is critical, but if these are weather stations set up properly they'd be in the open
1230. Drakoen
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Hey everyone! I have been new to this blog, only for the past few weeks or so, and boy have I learned alot. I think Dolly was a good way to start out the learning process because she was a real trickster. But the NHC did a great job of forecasting path and intensity. Thanks to all on this site for the good debates and informative discussions.

On to the next storm - 97L. Drak, what are your thoughts on your wave?


I don't think 97L will amount to much. The next wave that comes of the coast of Africa is what we will need to watch.
1220. Yes, I still take you seriously on the weather info though!
I think that the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale needs to be changed. Basing a rating on just the top wind speeds is too misleading. I've been through many hurricanes. I've seen thousands evacuate unnecessarily and others who refuse to evacuate under dire circumstances.

Look at the WIND map of Dennis from 05.



And the wind map of infamous Katrina



They both came on shore as Cat 3s and even though Dean was a nasty little storm - should it have been ranked as an equal to Katrina? People become complacent about hurricanes because of warnings about Cat 4s (like DEan was just before landfall) and end up with just a breezy wet day only 40 miles from the eye. Then they hear a "KARTINA" is coming a couple of countys away and say "So what? I was 40 miles from Dennis and didn't get anything but a little wind and rain."

I think they should combine the Wind speed along with the cumulative wind area in a new scale that would give people better information to make their decisions.
1233. ticka1
Is there a way to get a google map overlayed with a weather radar?
Thank you Floodman
Wow...South Padre Island and Port Isabel have been getting parts of the Dolly's eyewall since 7AM EST.

!

I think most of the damage the will have...specifically SPI...will be of beach erosion. Judging by satellite shots compared to the radar, they've had winds starting from the NE and soon to end out of the SW. Not good for the beaches
Dolly continues to go North.
This looks no good as it soon will be back over water.
first post in a long time...prob going to back to a SECS in '07.

correct me if i'm wrong but ain't 967 mb darn close to CAT 3 pressure? she was at 964 but latest advisory has her at 967. that's a strong CAT 2. storm surge will likely be nasty with this one. i heard an interesting piece on NPR a few weeks back about the state claiming eminent domain over private beach property 'cause of a state law mandating that beaches be state/public property. you hear this and naturally surmise that the beach has been, er, naturally depleting. so, i ask...how susceptible is south padre to a CAT 2 surge?

interesting tidbit about dolly being strongest trop system to make US landfall since 05. sometimes it's easy to forget how infrequent it is to have a substantial landfall.
Cat 3 can mean one thing when the storm is 200 miles wide but very different when it is 500 miles wide.
not sure about google maps but I know it can be done in Google Earth.

Quoting ticka1:
Is there a way to get a google map overlayed with a weather radar?
I returned after several years and completed in May. I took meteorology with Dr. Richman at OU. It was a very interesting but difficult course.
Here are the webcams for S. Padre -- when they come back up.
Link
SPI is very susceptible to storm surge. Only maybe 8 ft above sea level.
1243. Hhunter
yea it is blowing a ton in harlingen..scaring some folks
I know Dolly is going to be bad, causing considerable damage from wind and flooding, but imagine what she'd have been like had the ull not been there that plagued her for so long up through the Caribbean and across the GOM!

We could have been looking at a very serious major landfalling storm!

And, we've a week still remaing in July! August and then the peak month of mid-September is all in front of us. WOW!

Do you think the Lighthouse is still there?

Quoting notmaxmayfield:
Wow...South Padre Island and Port Isabel have been getting parts of the Dolly's eyewall since 7AM EST.

!

I think most of the damage the will have...specifically SPI...will be of beach erosion. Judging by satellite shots compared to the radar, they've had winds starting from the NE and soon to end out of the SW. Not good for the beaches
1236. Alexking
--------------
LOL..... Dude give it up! you clinging to this trolling north show is pathetic. Shows over. The ridge has it and shes coming ashore now....
i just saw the first report, lame one at that, about the hurricane on tv for the first time in over 4 hrs. And I'm in TX.
1249. nash28
Well, apparently 97L hasn't been dropped.
Just saw the 18GMT coords posted.
Quoting oddspeed:
not sure about google maps but I know it can be done in Google Earth.

Quoting ticka1:
Is there a way to get a google map overlayed with a weather radar?


yes it's possible. just look on the left when you load the google maps main page and click on the link that allows you to browse the various categories of map overlays that they have. the weather channel has one and you can zoom down to street level. checking out port isabel right now is eerie. the faded radar red makes you feel like you're there.

and to clarify...i was speaking of TEXAS before when i mentioned the state claiming eminent domain over private beach property. in case you didn't figure that out on your own.
I feel for the folks in Dolly's path right now. I remember that Andrew seemed to take forever to pass us - even though it was a fast moving storm (compared to Dolly). After a few hours you just want it to stop - now.
1252. expert2
I see a band of the coast on the right side that probably when comes ashore will have lots of tornados wind damge flooding.The moisture is surging from the yucatan into the storm and another blow up of storms or 2 is likely.The tornado threat is best there as best low level wind fields come ashore.
1253. myway
Alex
The operative word is island. Here in florida anyone with any brains monotors these storms and does not wait to be told what to do. Personal decisions often come with a price to pay.
1255. Drakoen
97L is a low level cloud swirl:
1256. 3for5
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting DestinJeff:
1112. Drakoen 1:44 PM CDT on July 23, 2008

now that is the kind of sarcasm that is funny.


I'm just giving OUSHAWN a good ol' ribbin'.


Just an observation from a heavy lurker...
Along with your very informative posts, and keen data analysis, I was pleased to see a bit of a lighter post.

Keep up the good work
Quoting Slowchaos:
I think that the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale needs to be changed. Basing a rating on just the top wind speeds is too misleading. I've been through many hurricanes. I've seen thousands evacuate unnecessarily and others who refuse to evacuate under dire circumstances.

Look at the WIND map of Dennis from 05.



And the wind map of infamous Katrina



They both came on shore as Cat 3s and even though Dean was a nasty little storm - should it have been ranked as an equal to Katrina? People become complacent about hurricanes because of warnings about Cat 4s (like DEan was just before landfall) and end up with just a breezy wet day only 40 miles from the eye. Then they hear a "KARTINA" is coming a couple of countys away and say "So what? I was 40 miles from Dennis and didn't get anything but a little wind and rain."

I think they should combine the Wind speed along with the cumulative wind area in a new scale that would give people better information to make their decisions.

They could call it the Enhanced Saffir-Simpson Scale, where they take into account the actual size of the wind field...that way the public can be better informed of this kind of thing. But keep in mind though that they always do give out the wind field radii in all of the NHC advisories, so it's up to people to educate themselves on this and use it wisely. They just need to better coordinate evacuation efforts and only have mandatory evacuations for those that need it the most, and have them leave first...after that, voluntary evacuations can go into effect for those less pertinent areas that do not necessarily need to leave, but can do so at their choosing. Contraflow needs to be implemented more readily to help increase the efficiency of evacuations that are underway. There are better ways of doing this short of messing with a tried-and-proven intensity scale.

Thoughts?
14+ " of rain in spots so far with Dolly. Rain total loop.


Recon found 966mb, 69kt winds surface, 82 kts flight level.
1260. Michfan
Alot of you are forgetting that a hurricane's pressure can drop at the dime of a hat but for the storm surge and the winds to properly reflect that pressure it takes time. The storm still has to wind up.

Hurricane Katrina is a prime example of this. She hit land as a Cat 3 but had the storm surge of a Cat 5 because she was still winding down at the time and had all of that water piled up. She didn't have enough time to get her storm surge down to the same level as the pressure she was showing.

Not everything with hurricane's is instantaneous and in this day and age of the internet and sattelite coverage alot of people incorrectly assume that all of these variables match up perfectly. Most of the time they do not.
Just saw the lighthouse on TWC. It's still there!
recon just found 962mb
I don't like when trolls quote my post and don't even make use of the quote. Makes no sense
1266. ticka1
1250. airChrist 1:30 PM CDT on July 23, 2008
Quoting oddspeed:
not sure about google maps but I know it can be done in Google Earth.


Quoting ticka1:
Is there a way to get a google map overlayed with a weather radar?


yes it's possible. just look on the left when you load the google maps main page and click on the link that allows you to browse the various categories of map overlays that they have. the weather channel has one and you can zoom down to street level. checking out port isabel right now is eerie. the faded radar red makes you feel like you're there.

and to clarify...i was speaking of TEXAS before when i mentioned the state claiming eminent domain over private beach property. in case you didn't figure that out on your own.


Thank you very much! I am viewing what I wanted.
It looks like Dolly's wind field is starting to expand on the west side which I guess is to be expected as it comes ashore. Harlingen may be getting their worst winds now.
Jim Cantore ,just said that for security reasons , he and his crew will wait till the winds go below 60 miles per hour were he is at now. He expect to be back in perhaps an hour if conditions improve.
1257. Alexking
------------------
Soo hilarious. You ever seen that movie with Jim Carrey and Jeff bridges? what was it called?
Doppler radar showing rainfall amounts reaching 11 inches along the coast SPI.....

Link
Will there be twisters near San Antonio today?
1274. sammyo
hey yall
Photobucket

wind damage in Corpus Christi at major intersection of Staples and So. Padre Island Dr.
Quoting Skyepony:
recon just found 962mb


Can I see this? I thought Dolly was weakening due to dry air, land interaction, ERC, etc. Man, what a storm!
A saved nexrad radar of Dolly making landfall.
Could people please stop quoting "bad posts". I only have a couple people on my ignore list for now, but I don't want to have to see their posts... which is why they are on that list! Thanks.
Quoting omgatwister:
Will there be twisters near San Antonio today?


Looks like you will be on the edge of the mess.......Slight possibility!
A 85 mph gush in north falls in southern part of Padre!!
I hear some say that there is power still on during dolly ????
Quoting Michfan:
Alot of you are forgetting that a hurricane's pressure can drop at the dime of a hat but for the storm surge and the winds to properly reflect that pressure it takes time. The storm still has to wind up.

Hurricane Katrina is a prime example of this. She hit land as a Cat 3 but had the storm surge of a Cat 5 because she was still winding down at the time and had all of that water piled up. She didn't have enough time to get her storm surge down to the same level as the pressure she was showing.

Not everything with hurricane's is instantaneous and in this day and age of the internet and sattelite coverage alot of people incorrectly assume that all of these variables match up perfectly. Most of the time they do not.


granted...and agreed. i was just implying that a pressure hovering around the high 960s for 24 hours is generally indicative of a weak CAT 3. perhaps i do put too much stock in pressure, but i've often thought that wind speed can be an inaccurate barometer (tsk, tsk) for storm intensity as well. you mention katrina. katrina had CAT 2 winds in New Orleans and yet the surge did what it did. that may or may not be more of an indictment of inadequate infrastructure but katrina was a CAT 5 24 hrs prior to landfall.
1285. OUSHAWN
1278...

For some reason I get the feeling I'm one of them...lol
1286. IMA
Quoting omgatwister:
Will there be twisters near San Antonio today?
There is a slight chance today and tomorrow, but not even a tornado watch in S.A. yet. So far, it's just clouding up more, the humidity is up, and the dew point is up.
1287. scla08
To me, in the latest radar imagery, it looks like Dolly is slowing again. Can anyone else see this?
OK.. for those of you who were on with me earlier -- and worried about my stupid friend. Her husband just clarified to me where exactly she is. At her mom's house, which is 50 yards from the bay of Port Isabel. Very worried now.
Quoting smmcdavid:
Could people please stop quoting "bad posts". I only have a couple people on my ignore list for now, but I don't want to have to see their posts... which is why they are on that list! Thanks.


Could you please put me on top(North)of that list.Thank you very much.
1291. IKE
Looks like Dolly made landfall west of Raymondville..

Guess that ends the.....

(1)North-casters.
(2)Corpus Christi-casters.
(3)Houston-casters.


I leave any group out???????
1285... no.

I just mean the posts that are completely pointless. The "trolls"... and such. I don't want to read arguements over and over either.

All real weather related posts are of course okay to quote in my opinion.
1293. texmex
Storms in the gulf headed toward Galveston seem to evaporate before they hit the island. Any chance for us in Houston to get some good rain out of any of the moisture in the gulf, or is it all going to poof before it gets here? So far we've only had a few drizzles.
Is the ignore function not working or something? Every time I click it I am brought the my users page.


Quoting boatdrinkz:
I hear some say that there is power still on during dolly ????


That is common in a weak hurricane. It goes to show you that Texas is up to speed on its infrastructure.

Quoting IKE:
Looks like Dolly made landfall west of Raymondville..

Guess that ends the.....

(1)North-casters.
(2)Corpus Christi-casters.
(3)Houston-casters.


I leave any group out???????


What about New Orleans?

=p
Quoting ursamajor2000:
Quoting boatdrinkz:
I hear some say that there is power still on during dolly ????


That is common in a weak hurricane. It goes to show you that Texas is up to speed on its infrastructure.



We didn't lose power until an hour after humberto hit land. A branch fell on a transformer and knocked it out.

just started comin' down here.. with wind gusting easily to 30 mph.. and im hundreds of miles away from her..

interestingly, we were much much closer to ritas eye with much less rain already.. but we were on the "clean" side of her..
1301. OUSHAWN
1289...

I hope she is ok. She is in my prayers as all those down in that area are. Keep us updated.
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:
Quoting PNavejar57:
Photobucket

wind damage in Corpus Christi at major intersection of Staples and So. Padre Island Dr.


Why are people out on the roads?


Because its not a bad storm like everyone wants to think it is. Its a little windy, of course, but its no different than a strong tropical storm. Life goes on you know.
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
OK.. for those of you who were on with me earlier -- and worried about my stupid friend. Her husband just clarified to me where exactly she is. At her mom's house, which is 50 yards from the bay of Port Isabel. Very worried now.


Well the good news is that storm surge may have been minimal there - although they've been absolutely hammered by winds for quite a while. I hope your friend and family will come out of this with nothing more than scary stories to tell.
1306. centex
Ike, you left out the Mex casters
1307. IKE
Quoting ursamajor2000:
Quoting IKE:
Looks like Dolly made landfall west of Raymondville..

Guess that ends the.....

(1)North-casters.
(2)Corpus Christi-casters.
(3)Houston-casters.


I leave any group out???????


What about New Orleans?

=p



(4) New Orleans-casters.
Link
collapsed roof on SPI.
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
OK.. for those of you who were on with me earlier -- and worried about my stupid friend. Her husband just clarified to me where exactly she is. At her mom's house, which is 50 yards from the bay of Port Isabel. Very worried now.

You should also be pissed off at her for not listening to you when you warned her about the hurricane.
Business as usual in Corpus no evacuations, no closures City Management said to prepare for rain but not to expect much more...
I know that Dolly is a formidable storm but the people of Texas need to thank their lucky stars that she didnt have another 24 hours over water before she made landfall.......or if she had turned north ......things could of been a whole lot worse!!!!!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Heres a little note of interest.
Dolly is the Strongest US landfalling System since
Hurricane Wilma of 2005.

Alexking I do not understand how in the world you can think that this will jump east
Quoting Houstonian:
just started comin' down here.. with wind gusting easily to 30 mph.. and im hundreds of miles away from her..

interestingly, we were was much much closer to ritas eye with much less rain already.. but we were on the "clean" side of her..


Where are you? I've had some gusts.. but certainly no good rain.
Who is tying down a horse in an area that can flood???????
Link
My mom says small limbs down in her 'hood, but no roof damage of any sort she can see. She's in HRL, right behind Valley Baptist. Worst winds were about 40 mins ago, when that red eye wall squall passed just NE. Heavy rain but no flooding in N & E HRL. Landlines are down, but they still have power, cable, etc... Cell coverage is spotty now.
1329. IKE
...Dolly made landfall in South Padre Island...expected to move
farther inland over southern Texas later today..
HOG that pic is from Corpus.. not Padre.
what are you basing this "northeastern turn" on alex..??

please do tell... im sure WE all would like to know...
Quoting weatherboyfsu:
I know that Dolly is a formidable storm but the people of Texas need to thank their lucky stars that she didnt have another 24 hours over water before she made landfall.......or if she had turned north ......things could of been a whole lot worse!!!!!!

There's also the lesson: Only a CAT1 or CAT2 still packs a wallop!
#1328 HRL?
1335. IKE
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Ike what about Cat5casters


(8)Cat5-casters.

Drak got banned????????????
NW hou.. rain has stopped for now and the suns back out.. but it rained hard here for a good 10 mins
It's a shame that you have people on here playing around. This is suppose to be a place get to good info from. AlexKing you ought be shame of yourshelf. Some people are relying on this site. She is not going North, knock it off
1339. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Ike what about Cat5casters


(8)Cat5-casters.

Drak got banned????????????


No. Before when I got banned. He is making a comparison.
1341. IKE
Hurricane Dolly
Wind: 95 MPH — Location: 26.4N 97.3W — Movement: WNW
Quoting Chicklit:
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
OK.. for those of you who were on with me earlier -- and worried about my stupid friend. Her husband just clarified to me where exactly she is. At her mom's house, which is 50 yards from the bay of Port Isabel. Very worried now.

You should also be pissed off at her for not listening to you when you warned her about the hurricane.


Oh I am!!
Dolly about to make second landfall on the mainland.

TWC reporting that a 17 year old male is in serious condition with several broken bones after being BLOWN OFF A SEVENTH FLOOR BALCONY

Not to make light of the injury but wow what a dense individual.
Quoting setfree7:
Who is tying down a horse in an area that can flood???????
Link


thanks for the link, nice slideshow and I finally got to see what Lixion Avila looks like.
1346. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting IKE:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Ike what about Cat5casters


(8)Cat5-casters.

Drak got banned????????????


No. Before when I got banned. He is making a comparison.


OK....I was wondering.

here at Monterrey we are starting to feel dolly's rainfall. In 2 hours we changed from a sunny day to a completely overcast sky.
Dolly is amazing!!
More damage on SPI.
Link
does anyone actually have TWC in HD? we don't get it yet here on LI.
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting IKE:

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Ike what about Cat5casters


(8)Cat5-casters.

Drak got banned????????????


No. Before when I got banned. He is making a comparison.


yeah sry didnt mean now lol
1352. texmex
Quoting Houstonian:
just started comin' down here.. with wind gusting easily to 30 mph.. and im hundreds of miles away from her..

interestingly, we were much much closer to ritas eye with much less rain already.. but we were on the "clean" side of her..


Really? I'm in Southeast Houston & I've had a few drizzles & very calm winds, not even a breeze to speak of. Only a leaf or 2 in the pool-- very calm. I was hoping we'd at least get some rain. I was looking at the radar & saw lots of yellow blobs out in the gulf headed for Galveston but they dissipate before reaching land. I was just wondering if the moisture would move in or continue to tease.
1340.
LOL
Quoting Barkeep1967:
TWC reporting that a 17 year old male is in serious condition with several broken bones after being BLOWN OFF A SEVENTH FLOOR BALCONY

Not to make light of the injury but wow what a dense individual.


Wasn't Al Roker being held down outside on a balcony during rita or katrina?

1356. Drakoen
Avila is looking at one big shot of Dolly. That image was probably taken today. I need to get me a big computer monitor like that...
Quoting Houstonian:
NW hou.. rain has stopped for now and the suns back out.. but it rained hard here for a good 10 mins


I'm clear lake area and nada. Just a little shower early this morning.
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:
Quoting Barkeep1967:
TWC reporting that a 17 year old male is in serious condition with several broken bones after being BLOWN OFF A SEVENTH FLOOR BALCONY

Not to make light of the injury but wow what a dense individual.


Very sad. It can happen easily though. I've been in storms where you can easily stand one minute then a gust hits you and knocks you over. Still not smart to be out in a storm like that.


It was on SPI. Not like the wind has let up there in the last two hours.
Hi Tx. Hope your friend is okay. (((Prayers)))
Quoting texmex:
Quoting Houstonian:
just started comin' down here.. with wind gusting easily to 30 mph.. and im hundreds of miles away from her..

interestingly, we were much much closer to ritas eye with much less rain already.. but we were on the "clean" side of her..


Really? I'm in Southeast Houston & I've had a few drizzles & very calm winds, not even a breeze to speak of. Only a leaf or 2 in the pool-- very calm. I was hoping we'd at least get some rain. I was looking at the radar & saw lots of yellow blobs out in the gulf headed for Galveston but they dissipate before reaching land. I was just wondering if the moisture would move in or continue to tease.


well the "burst" of rain and wind i spoke of ended as quickly as it began.. but it did in fact rain hard here for about 10 mins with more than just a breeze..
Dolly about to make second landfall on the mainland.

http://weather.cod.edu/nexrad/brefs/BRO/BRO.BREF1.gif
im here in freidnswood and got poured onthis morning but lookign at radar looks like this eveing we will get a ton fo rain
Quoting Drakoen:
Avila is looking at one big shot of Dolly. That image was probably taken today. I need to get me a big computer monitor like that...


lol, well at least I'm not the only person who impressed by the size of his monitor.
Dolly slowly pulling away from Brownsville & SPI
I've even come close to being blown off my feet one time when a gust front came thru and didn't realize how bad the storm was coming in. But come on, it's a hurricane, what was he doing on the balcony?
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:
Quoting Barkeep1967:
TWC reporting that a 17 year old male is in serious condition with several broken bones after being BLOWN OFF A SEVENTH FLOOR BALCONY

Not to make light of the injury but wow what a dense individual.


Very sad. It can happen easily though. I've been in storms where you can easily stand one minute then a gust hits you and knocks you over. Still not smart to be out in a storm like that.
1370. Drakoen
It looks like the worse is coming into Brownsville with that A3 cell on Nexrad radar.
Quoting setfree7:
More damage on SPI.
Link

If that's it, we've had more damage from run of the mill thunderstorms.
True. I know my brother was scared of nothing at that age.
1369...absolutely 100% correct....
1369... I don't think that is what the creators intended.
1375. IKE
The eye is starting to fill-in on visible...it's moving inland....system should begin to weaken now....
Are models still forecasting 97L to develop? Looks like it has about dissipated.
who said to rely on this blog?
1378. Middy83


1367. setfree7 7:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
I've even come close to being blown off my feet one time when a gust front came thru and didn't realize how bad the storm was coming in. But come on, it's a hurricane, what was he doing on the balcony?


Very true! A balcony...no way...a front porch, now that's a different story. I dont know about other states, but here in Louisiana it's almost customary to sit out on the front (or back) porch for the entire storm, no matter how bad it gets.

I did for Katrina, and so did friends I have that lived closer to where she hit. They watched all kinds of tree's fall and the roof cap blow off their shed.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Are models still forecasting 97L to develop? Looks like it has about dissipated.


I think most of the models have dropped 97L
1381. Drakoen
Quoting MississippiWx:
Are models still forecasting 97L to develop? Looks like it has about dissipated.


The CMC is the only model showing 97L developing significantly.
I agree
1385. Drakoen
Quoting DestinJeff:
Nobody ought to be relying on this site for storm info... at least not the blog. This is just like a virtual coffee-shop... you have to take what you read with a grain of salt. Somebody at the coffee shop always has the tall tales and one-ups a story. Same here.

Nobody should rely on this site for storm info. This is moreso entertainment/education/lockeroom than it is Emergency Management Officiial.


They can rely on Jeff Masters.
smmc...the site is a different animal from the blog comments, in my mind....also, Dr. Masters' posts carry credibility that responses to it may not....
So Dolly made landfall as a CAT 2, and has gotten weaker to a CAT 1 overland.
Quoting hondaguy:
1367. setfree7 7:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
I've even come close to being blown off my feet one time when a gust front came thru and didn't realize how bad the storm was coming in. But come on, it's a hurricane, what was he doing on the balcony?


Very true! A balcony...no way...a front porch, now that's a different story. I dont know about other states, but here in Louisiana it's almost customary to sit out on the front (or back) porch for the entire storm, no matter how bad it gets.

I did for Katrina, and so did friends I have that lived closer to where she hit. They watched all kinds of tree's fall and the roof cap blow off their shed.


Im from S. LA too and I can certainly agree with that. My dad and I sat under the carport and watched!
TXAlways: Your friend not only put herself in danger but her family as well. I suspect she was afraid that the storm would keep them at her house even longer and wanted to get them back to the island. Now I'm sure she wishes she had stayed put.
When hurricanes are coming, priorities must definitely be put into order. Patrap is an expert on that, having gone through Katrina and its aftermath in New Orleans. It's always Safety First. That's why Cantore was not out there broadcasting during the worst part of the storm.
Since I have lived along the coast my entire life, I'm very familiar with the power of tornadoes and hurricanes and have experienced them first-hand. Sometimes there is a point when there's nothing you can do except wait and hope. Unfortunately that's where you and your friend both are at this moment.
The winds were not 150 or even 125. They maybe gusted to 100, so she's probably just fine. She just got scared a bit I'd imagine, and maybe humbled, at least you'd hope so!
drak...great minds think alike....
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Are models still forecasting 97L to develop? Looks like it has about dissipated.


The CMC is the only model showing 97L developing significantly.


Thanks. Looks like a big slow down coming in the tropics after Dolly goes inland. A massive area of dry air covers the Central and Eastern Atlantic.
1379, I don't think I would be that brave and I get out in some pretty intense stuff.
west edge of the eyewall is at the county line on the mainland.
Link
Steady strengthening continued that evening and into the morning of July 23, at which point Dolly reached Category 2 intensity while just east of the Rio Grande Valley at 10:00 am that morning with winds of up to 100 mph and a minimal central pressure of 964 mb, although some satellite estimates placed Dolly as a weak Category 4 hurricane around this time.

Source - Wikipedia.
You used to be able to get good helpful info on this site like in 2005 but now its just chest pounding, "I know more than you" and "I told you so" competition.
and how fast you can "ignore" people. Esp when so many people are affected by these storms and want info; Sad
1397. Drakoen
Quoting MississippiWx:
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Are models still forecasting 97L to develop? Looks like it has about dissipated.


The CMC is the only model showing 97L developing significantly.


Thanks. Looks like a big slow down coming in the tropics after Dolly goes inland. A massive area of dry air covers the Central and Eastern Atlantic.


Not really at least development wise. The GFS is showing development in the CATL late this week into early next week. This wave should come further south so we will see. The ECMWF also hinted development as well. Though i'm going to put less emphasis on what the ECMWF has to say.
1398. nash28
Actually, new set of BAM models ran 2pm on 97L today. Looks like NHC has it again. They may have just been slammed with Dolly and put this invest on the back burner...


They can rely on Jeff Masters.

I agree.

As an MET student, I know how valuable this website has been to me.

Instead of taking everything with a grain of salt, know what you want to take in.

Drak, I'm sure the person leaving that comment does not have PHD in Atmoshperic Studies.

Mr. Masters does.
SHIPS intensity model, and some pf the LBAR, BAMM models develop 97L! SHIPS intensity model suggest a tropical cyclone in 48 hrs with this system....No one really believes that since it is looking a little ragged right now...Spin in still there though so need to watch this...
The wave behind (to the south) this one looks more potent at least in terms of convection...let's see what heppens!? ;)
1402. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:
drak...great minds think alike....


Where's the other great mind? ;P
Laughing is great Houstonian.
...you're killin' me...
1406. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:
...you're killin' me...


lol.
Hondaguy - I should probably mention that we weren't near the eye for either Katrina or Rita - but got just enough action to make it kinda scary!
1409. Walnut
What vector is Dolly on right now? Still 305-310?
Julie Martin @ TWC is my new favorite Weather Babe...
I agree with you guys and I'm not opposed to having a little fun, but when we have a hurrican making landfall... I do believe some people may come here looking for good information.

I just think we need to be more serious during times like these and more "playful" when it's not quite as active.

I also agree that no one should solely depend on info they find here, in the blog.


blow up of convection near the center lets see if it can hold it until DMAX
#1350 DirectTV started broadcasting TWC in HD a few months ago. It's awesome!
Drak-

I haven't looked at any models, so I was just assuming it would slow down due to the massive area of dry air. Of course, the atmosphere is moistening from the east.

I'm not gonna write off 97L completely. It still looks like it has a closed LLC and if it can survive another day or two it will be in 26C-27C waters.
1418. Drakoen
Quoting Houstonian:
Quoting Houstonian:
i come here purely for the entertainment value.. this blog can be like a ants nest thats been poked w/ a stick. its sooo easy to get everyone all stirred up and argueing over.......well i guess the WIND.
I have alot for respect for Dr.Masters and I give alot of credit to his posts.. but other than that i just read and LAUGH!! (and..every now then I may fuel the fire..lol)


fan the flames.. like this watch....

............... FISH STORM!! LOL!!


Somebody's looking for attention.
1419. BA
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:
Quoting PNavejar57:
Photobucket

wind damage in Corpus Christi at major intersection of Staples and So. Padre Island Dr.


Why are people out on the roads?


because it really isn't that bad here in Corpus, I am on the island (North Padre Island) and it hasn't been too bad at all
1420. OUSHAWN
I guess when the remnants of Dolly are about to enter the Pacific someone on here will say it's still about to hit Victoria, Tx...
Wow CC getting pounded with Heavy rain.

From the Radar it looks like the Houston area is about to get in on a pretty good band of rain also.
I like the "poke a stick in an ant's nest" analogy, though I notice one little Aunt keeps heading North every time it can....
Can't figure out how to post a picture with my blog entries so sent an email off to Admin to ask for help. I thought the blog had really good information all along, and it's pretty easy to see who knows what they are talking about and who doesn't.
97L (and with good reason) has been downgraded to a yellow circle and I am writing off 97L so..... nect invest please (not right away of course).
1407. weathermel 7:20 PM GMT on July 23, 2008

I was down in St. Amant when Katrina rolled on shore. I know we had close to hurricane forced gusts and I experienced that while standing on the edge of the carport. It hit me and I was moved back a bit cause I had flip flops on and the concrete was that slippery flat type that you can almost use as a slippin slide.

Course I'm a smaller guy and at the time I topped about 145lbs, so it wouldnt take much to throw me around! lol

Never once scared by the winds though. All I wanted to see was some trees fall, but all I got was a bunch of branches.
Please don't get the wrong impression of Louisianians: we generally don't do Jim Cantore impressions during the height of a storm onslaught.
1428. OUSHAWN
Having a nice little rain shower right now here in Clear Lake...
Quoting Alexking:
Quoting OUSHAWN:
I guess when the remnants of Dolly are about to enter the Pacific someone on here will say it's still about to hit Victoria, Tx...


Yeah some people are real idiots.
Where do you think second landfall(the true landfall) from Dolly will hit.


you would be one of them that says that the center will reform over the gulf and move into houston
1430. SamTeam
1419. BA 2:24 PM CDT on July 23, 2008

What can you tell, if anything, about damage? My memory is that there aren't too many single family homes on SPI but mainly condo's; is that still correct?
Houstonian,
That's sad.
Im just north of galveston in friendswood and it just got very cloudy here and the wind picking up i think we got alot of rain on the way looking at the radar
1426. NOLAWatcher 7:29 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
Please don't get the wrong impression of Louisianians: we generally don't do Jim Cantore impressions during the height of a storm onslaught.


Correct! The edge of the carport was as far as I'd go. I was to scared to even venture out in the drive way cause there were powerlines overhead.

People often guess that I want to be out on the beach when a hurricane is hitting, and that's about as far from the truth as you can get. I want to be in a sturdy building at least 40 feet above sea level or more than 50 miles inland. :-)

Quoting bigdoge3:
Im just north of galveston in friendswood and it just got very cloudy here and the wind picking up i think we got alot of rain on the way looking at the radar



You folks really need it though right ?
Quoting sporteguy03:
Houstonian,
That's sad.


Very....................................
1438. sky1989
1427-
Don't forget "Tropical Mushroom Dolly"! LOL! Things have really changed since then.
Yea we do but then it mean ill have to mow the lawn son after bc it will be real tall but we got some rain this morning but that it
Quoting BA:
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:
Quoting PNavejar57:
Photobucket

wind damage in Corpus Christi at major intersection of Staples and So. Padre Island Dr.


Why are people out on the roads?


because it really isn't that bad here in Corpus, I am on the island (North Padre Island) and it hasn't been too bad at all


South Padre Island is really taking a pounding.

I was reading on CNN a report of someone riding it out on a boat!?!

All power is out on the island and waves heights of 10 to 20 ft with extensive dock and inland structural damage are being reported.

Cantore just made a great point...everybody who chose not to evac S Padre thought it was gonna be a tropical storm...now they're in the nmiddle of a Cat 2 cane...science can only do so much....
Rainfall totals so far. Over 11 inches in many areas already.

Just thought I would chime in with my 2 cents...I kind of wish that Dolly would have come a little more north(I know someone in here still says that is going to happen)...here in Fort Bend County we are in an extreme drought and desperately need the rain...I know down south they were for the most part above normal for the year and could have done without it
DONT QUOTE THE TROLLS! Wishcaster's like Alexking and Fishcasters like Houstian need to be ignored. Kinda defeats the purpose of the Ignore button.
"I was reading on CNN a report of someone riding it out on a boat!?! "

not as dumb as you might think.....there's an argument to be made that it's safer than staying on the 7th floor of some hotel.....
1447. texmex
Quoting Barkeep1967:
Quoting bigdoge3:
Im just north of galveston in friendswood and it just got very cloudy here and the wind picking up i think we got alot of rain on the way looking at the radar



You folks really need it though right ?


We sure do! I hope some of the moisture out in the gulf makes its way into Houston/Galveston soon, we sure need it. The storms seem to dissipate before they hit Galveston; I'm noticing they are making their way into Louisiana... wonder if our Houston air is more stable?
1448. funeeeg
1427. GulfScotsman

I guess you must find it rather amusing from way up there on high.
1449. Drakoen
I have 14 people on my ignore list now. Like I said thank God for the ignore list.
1450. sky1989
1442-
You are right. It looks like Dolly may turn out to be a catastrophic storm in its own way-especially considering that it is only half way over. The people in its path have my prayers.
Quoting BA:
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:
Quoting PNavejar57:
Photobucket

wind damage in Corpus Christi at major intersection of Staples and So. Padre Island Dr.


Why are people out on the roads?


because it really isn't that bad here in Corpus, I am on the island (North Padre Island) and it hasn't been too bad at all


South Padre Island is really taking a pounding.

I was reading on CNN a report of someone riding it out on a boat!?!

All power is out on the island and waves heights of 10 to 20 ft with extensive dock and inland structural damage are being reported.

Has the eye made landfall yet?
1454. Michfan
Quoting presslord:
Cantore just made a great point...everybody who chose not to evac S Padre thought it was gonna be a tropical storm...now they're in the nmiddle of a Cat 2 cane...science can only do so much....


Problem is people don't inform themselves enough. Alot of people were saying yesterday that this had the potential to intensify to hurricane strength to include the NHC.
yes, about 1pm
Hey 23,
Yes it has the Eastern Eyewall is now moving in. That is the back side of the storm.
yes prettylove, she onshore now.
Quoting PrettyLove23:
Has the eye made landfall yet?


Yes, on South Padre and making second landfall on the mainland as I type.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?BRO
Quoting presslord:
"I was reading on CNN a report of someone riding it out on a boat!?! "

not as dumb as you might think.....there's an argument to be made that it's safer than staying on the 7th floor of some hotel.....
Correct! Talk to a Gulf Coast fisherman, and the odds are that he will head to the intracoastal waterway with his boat and keep it faced into the wind. Wouldn't want to do that in the open Gulf, but on the Laguna Madre it makes sense.
yep, now they have to deal with the east side of the eye, although not as intense i don't think.
Quoting hondaguy:
BR>
People often guess that I want to be out on the beach when a hurricane is hitting, and that's about as far from the truth as you can get. I want to be in a sturdy building at least 40 feet above sea level or more than 50 miles inland. :-)



And no windows. The tornados during Lily and Cindy had me in the windowless hallway, with the laptop on battery to watch the radar. Always amazes me when people express how exciting it must be to ride out a hurricane.
Dallas ...I got flamed in here recently for saying exactly that...thanks for the back up...
1464. o22sail
Quoting cctexgal:
You used to be able to get good helpful info on this site like in 2005 but now its just chest pounding, "I know more than you" and "I told you so" competition.
and how fast you can "ignore" people. Esp when so many people are affected by these storms and want info; Sad

I agree. It is not the same and less interesting with the never ending atmo-geek war going on.
Quoting texmex:
Quoting Barkeep1967:
Quoting bigdoge3:
Im just north of galveston in friendswood and it just got very cloudy here and the wind picking up i think we got alot of rain on the way looking at the radar



You folks really need it though right ?


We sure do! I hope some of the moisture out in the gulf makes its way into Houston/Galveston soon, we sure need it. The storms seem to dissipate before they hit Galveston; I'm noticing they are making their way into Louisiana... wonder if our Houston air is more stable?



Well it looks like some of these bands are going to make it to you. I hope it works out.


1466. Michfan
Quoting presslord:
Dallas ...I got flamed in here recently for saying exactly that...thanks for the back up...


Alot of people have used the Intercoastal Waterway in Florida as a good means of riding out a storm in a boat.
Quoting PrettyLove23:
Has the eye made landfall yet?


Sorry the image didn't take

Thanks for the info guys!

Wish she'd move North.

Someone do a rain dance for us North Texans!!
depending on the boat, the ground tackle, and the location I would not necessarily be afraid of riding one out aboard...
Quoting Michfan:
Quoting presslord:
Dallas ...I got flamed in here recently for saying exactly that...thanks for the back up...


Alot of people have used the Intercoastal Waterway in Florida as a good means of riding out a storm in a boat.


Have fun with that. I don't care if they say it's safer or not I will pass.
Quoting DallasGumby:
Quoting presslord:
"I was reading on CNN a report of someone riding it out on a boat!?! "

not as dumb as you might think.....there's an argument to be made that it's safer than staying on the 7th floor of some hotel.....
Correct! Talk to a Gulf Coast fisherman, and the odds are that he will head to the intracoastal waterway with his boat and keep it faced into the wind. Wouldn't want to do that in the open Gulf, but on the Laguna Madre it makes sense.


Yea if its out at sea, not in the docks or near a marina as this guy was it seems. Still even then i would want to be far out, anchored vessels tend to shift around in the muddy and sandy gulf during storms.
1473. Michfan
Quoting o22sail:
Quoting cctexgal:
You used to be able to get good helpful info on this site like in 2005 but now its just chest pounding, "I know more than you" and "I told you so" competition.
and how fast you can "ignore" people. Esp when so many people are affected by these storms and want info; Sad

I agree. It is not the same and less interesting with the never ending atmo-geek war going on.


Set the filter to Show Bad and it will filter out alot of the BS.
I don't think we're getting any of Dolly up here. Too bad, we could use the rain.
Quoting PrettyLove23:
Thanks for the info guys!

Wish she'd move North.

Someone do a rain dance for us North Texans!!
Quoting o22sail:
Quoting cctexgal:
You used to be able to get good helpful info on this site like in 2005 but now its just chest pounding, "I know more than you" and "I told you so" competition.
and how fast you can "ignore" people. Esp when so many people are affected by these storms and want info; Sad

I agree. It is not the same and less interesting with the never ending atmo-geek war going on.


That type of behavior was bound to increase as this blog becomes more popular....all types of characters out there

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Quoting PrettyLove23:
Has the eye made landfall yet?


Sorry the image didn't take



Thank you very much!
DOn't have time to reasearch at work, lol.
Quoting Michfan:
Quoting presslord:
Dallas ...I got flamed in here recently for saying exactly that...thanks for the back up...


Alot of people have used the Intercoastal Waterway in Florida as a good means of riding out a storm in a boat.
I've fished a bunch in Destin in late summer and had this very discussion with the boat captains. They swear the mainland side of the barrier islands is safer than anywhere else, and it keeps their boat on top of the water!
"atmo-geek" is now my new favorite word....lol... :)
I'm not talking about the sort of boat one would dock at a "yacht club"....
i'd rather just leave town.
Houstonian and Alexking sound like they are lovers. Maybe they should go out on a date and leave the blog a little less cluttered.

I had high hopes of watching 97l develop over the Atlantic, but I guess we'll have to wait on the next one. However, SSTs are supposed to be more favorable in a few days. I think the Doc mentioned something about this in yesterday's blog.
We sure couls Setfree. We'll just stick to prayers.
look at this guy out in it.

I would be afraid of getting hit!

BTW - Don't argue with anyone during storms. It aint worth it and there are a lot of visitors now, and it makes us all look stupid.
north side of eye is over Port mansfield.
Harlingen is getting hammered now with the WSW side of the storm over them.
1477

my pleasure. I fortunately have had breaks in my action through the day today.
Press, Did you ever ride out a hurricane in your boat? Just curious....Not being a S/A about it either.
Quoting setfree7:
I don't think we're getting any of Dolly up here. Too bad, we could use the rain.
Quoting PrettyLove23:
Thanks for the info guys!

Wish she'd move North.

Someone do a rain dance for us North Texans!!
Im here in fort worth...we need some rain bad too!
Quoting PrettyLove23:
Thanks for the info guys!

Wish she'd move North.

Someone do a rain dance for us North Texans!!


How far north? I might have to dust off my taps.

J/k
Houston downtown gets some strong rain bands now
This is kinda cool.
Link
1493. Patrap
GOM IR loop Link
1494. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Brownsville, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI 30 frame Loop Link
Don't usually contribute, but I had printed out the Computer models for Dolly for the 10am update on Monday, and three of the computer models intersected at the coastline only 15 miles north of the actual northern eyewall location. I'm sorry now that I didn't save the pic, but as much as we dog the models at times around here, depite all of Dolly's aberrations, they had the target nailed pretty closely two full days ago. In Pearland here and we have received repeated drenchings throughout the day here and at the Village in Houston. Needed it. Darn new Oregon Scientific NOAA radio isn't picking up the alerts properly, though.
I like this link for the big picture.
Interesting note: Has anyone noticed how the computer models keep predicting 97L to curve up, but in every run, they move further west? Also, what chance does 97L have of developing into a storm at this point?
1499. IKE
There's a new blog
1500. hulakai
scrolling down the blog, it appears that the predictors of north (cc/Huston) have retreated.
Let's all tell it like it is, NHC nailed this one. KUDOS to the king. Let's study the intensity blow up. Slow storm, warmer?/shallow water before landfall. Perhaps a disclaimer on intensity is appropriate "NHC predicts this storm will make landfall at XXX, but all interests in the warning area should prepare for XXX+++ due to unpredictable acts of nature." Watcha think?
NHC, esq.
I hope everyone is okay that went through Dolly. I cannot deny that I am glad it did not come further up to Houston/Galveston. This would not have been a good time, lol. I am in the Baytown/Highlands area. We had a bit of rain and nice clouds/wind.

I pray for all those involved.

I lurk and this is the first time posting this year but I read here constantly for the past few years.