WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Disturbed Weather Over Florida May Develop Into Weekend U.S. East Coast Storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on September 24, 2013

In the Northern Gulf of Mexico, a stalled stationary is bringing heavy thunderstorms to northern and central Florida, where heavy rains of up to six inches have caused isolated flooding problems. A weak area of low pressure along this front will move over the coastal waters several hundred miles offshore of South Carolina on Thursday, where the ECMWF and Canadian GEM models predict that development into a tropical or subtropical depression could occur by Friday. Ocean temperatures off the South Carolina coast are just warm enough for development, 26 - 27°C, so this scenario is plausible. However, the other two reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and UKMET models, are not predicting development. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave no odds that anything would spin up in the next five days. Out of respect for the ECMWF model, which has the lowest incidence of false alarms for predicting genesis of tropical cyclones, I put the 5-day odds of development at 20%. The ECMWF and GEM models predict that the storm will head slowly northwards, and the ECMWF model predicts that sustained winds of 30 - 40 mph will affect much of the mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday and Monday.


Figure 1. Predicted winds for 11 am EDT Sunday, September 29, 2013, from this morning's 00Z Tuesday, September 24, 2013 run of the ECMWF (European) model. The model is predicting that winds of 30 - 40 mph (light orange colors) could affect a large portion of the mid-Atlantic coast.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Here is a pic of today's sunset.CWG

Quoting 496. Tropicsweatherpr:


One thing to watch is how the ESPI is doing. If it turns positive then El Nino would be positioned to come.

Latest ESPI data
I think it's coming.
Quoting opal92nwf:

Honestly, I can say with good certainty that even if 2014 hurr season is an El Nino year, it will be more active than 2013. I expect at least one major to form

I think that same thing was predicted with just as much certainty in 2012 for the 2013 season. Although we may still get one, the odds with each passing day decrease. It seems predicting hurricanes a year in advance is not a very well developed science.
Quoting 494. sar2401:

Or if either end up being accurate. Things are not looking particularly impressive in the Gulf right now, and a lot has to happen in the next two days to have this low affect the east coast.
This system seems impressive from my point of view along the nature coast of Florida! Pwat of 2.2", approaching shortwave, and decent jet. What more can a developing nor'easter ask for?
Quoting 500. sar2401:

How can a model that made a correct prediction for two months running be "as wrong then as now"? You lost me on that one.

Because even when its initial forecasts of higher-than-average pressures across the Atlantic came out, there were indications it would be dead wrong (i.e. the GFS/CFS showing below-average pressures throughout the entire period). This is why most discarded it. Pressures across the Atlantic have not been above-average this season; they've been average to quite a bit below-average at times actually...

June MSLP - average
July MSLP - average
August MSLP - below average
September(1) - current - below average

Now let's see what it was predicting back in June:

Quoting daddyjames:


Headline a week from now:

Authorities stumped as rebuilding efforts, and emergency food supplies, decline precipitously . . .

Especially critical is the supply of Fritos, Ding Dongs, and Oreos, as they seem to have disappeared first. Authorities are still investigating the reason for such an occurrence.
Up to this date: What would be the explanation for such a passive hurricane season? Nino, Nina, SAL, ULLs, sinking air, JMO, GW, SSTs, any other??? Whats the official explanation?
Quoting 365. ScottLincoln:

I already beat you to it, Xulonn, back in post #63 :)
Indeed,Scott - such is the linear nature of blog comments. And your post was a bit more detailed than mine.

Just goes to show, however, that great minds think alike. ;)
Quoting 507. sunlinepr:
Up to this date: What would be the explanation for such a passive hurricane season? Nino, Nina, SAL, ULLs, sinking air, JMO, GW, SSTs, any other??? Whats the official explanation?

There isn't any one factor anybody can point to. It seems to be a multitude of different negatives this season. The only issue is that nobody knows what those factors are...I mean, some have hypotheses, but it isn't as simply as blaming it on El Nino, below-average SSTs, etc.
Quoting 509. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There isn't any one factor anybody can point to. It seems to be a multitude of different negatives this season. The only issue is that nobody knows what those factors are...I mean, some have hypotheses, but it isn't as simply as blaming it on El Nino, below-average SSTs, etc.


So we could conclude that this is an unprecedented special season... One for further study?
512. beell
Quoting 507. sunlinepr:
Up to this date: What would be the explanation for such a passive hurricane season? Nino, Nina, SAL, ULLs, sinking air, JMO, GW, SSTs, any other??? Whats the official explanation?


Seasonal Forecasts are a low-skill game?
Quoting 504. FLWeatherFreak91:
This system seems impressive from my point of view along the nature coast of Florida! Pwat of 2.2", approaching shortwave, and decent jet. What more can a developing nor'easter ask for?


The atmosphere is very tropical so it activity never looks as impressive on radar due to a lack of of ice growth in the radar reflectivity region, and for other reasons which I won't get into right now.

In fact the PWAT was actually 2.5 today on Tampa sounding, that is just as moist as you see in a hurricane environment, unusual to see outside of a tropical cyclone!


000
FXUS62 KTBW 241413
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1013 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION
AND INTO SARASOTA THIS MORNING WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF WATERS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE AIR MASS
TO THE SOUTH OF IT REMAINS VERY MOIST AS SEEN IN THE MORNING KTBW
SOUNDING WITH A PWAT AROUND 2.5 INCHES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
ISSUES
. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING RISK...THERE REMAINS THE
POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS AND BRIEF SPIN-UPS AS A FEW DECENT
WATERSPOUT SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE...RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...SO HAVE ISSUED A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING THE HEIGHTENED RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPDATED GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AND TO ISSUE THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT.
Quoting 503. sar2401:

I think that same thing was predicted with just as much certainty in 2012 for the 2013 season. Although we may still get one, the odds with each passing day decrease. It seems predicting hurricanes a year in advance is not a very well developed science.

Well the main thing is I really don't think that such a weak season as 2013 was will be repeated. Thinking off the top of my head, I can't think of a set of a couple of years that were about as equally stagnant. 2014 would have to be nothing but more active which would entail more hurricanes and a good chance of a major (also considering that it is pretty rare to go a year without one)
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Airlines Face Carbon Verdict on $708 Billion Industry

End of Atomic Age Seen as Merkel's Biggest Headache Now


Hunger Seen Worsening by Oxfam as Climate Change Heats Up World

More than 80 Zimbabwe elephants poisoned by cyanide :(

What happens when the oil runs out?

*** The Dragon Awakens: Colossal Explosion from Supermassive Black Hole at Centre of Galaxy Revealed


Brain May Rely On Computer-Like Mechanism to Make Sense of Novel Situations

Late Cretaceous Period Was Likely Ice-Free

Oldest Existing Lizard-Like Fossil Hints at Scaly Origins

Genetic Study Pushes Back Timeline for First Significant Human Population Expansion

New Adsorbent Is More Effective and Environmentally Friendly for Treating Wastewater

Emissions and Costs of Power Plant Cycling Necessary for Increased Wind and Solar Calculated

Uphill for the Trees of the World

*** How Do We Talk About Climate Change? The Need for Strategic Conversations

New Methods Increases Food and Bioenergy Production from Cassava

Voyager 1 Magnetic Data Surprise Intrigues Researchers

* Spinning CDs to Clean Sewage Water

Canadian Natural told to drain Alberta lake due to oil sands leak

* Lagarde says IMF work can contribute to environmental change

Global panel to make economic case on climate change

Oh deer! Eagle kills deer in startling glimpse of alpha bird behavior.

!!! Chemical Disarmament Won't Be Easy

Cabinet stumps for climate action

*** Teens face down flu viruses, energy crises in winning Google Science Fair entries Hoping to see astrometeor in one of these articles :)
G'nite all... got an early start tomorrow and need a good night's sleep to make it out...
Can someone please give me the URL for the old classic site? I just got a new computer, and I think last time I found the addy at the wiki, but now I can't find it. I despise the "new" site, and can't find anything. Help!

And thanks...
NASA Mars Rover Views Eclipse of the Sun by Phobos

New images from NASA's Mars rover Curiosity show a Martian moon, Phobos, fully silhouetted in front of the sun.



Here comes the next round, linear banding and west flow could mean torrential rains setting up for the Tampa Bay area. deepest convection and greatest lift is still out of radar range.
Quoting opal92nwf:

Well the main thing is I really don't think that such a weak season as 2013 was will be repeated. Thinking off the top of my head, I can't think of a set of a couple of years that were about as equally stagnant. 2014 would have to be nothing but more active which would entail more hurricanes and a good chance of a major (also considering that it is pretty rare to go a year without one)

But that's not how probabilities work. First, we have a fairly limited knowledge of the earth's hurricane seasons. Generously, we know about 150 years of the tens of thousands of years that hurricanes have been occurring in the tropics. That means we could have had many of what we think of as anomalous seasons or strings of seasons and not know it. Second, nothing in probabilities or nature has to happen because of what happened before it. This is the typical
Gambler's Fallacy. Since this slot machine hasn't hit in a long time, it has to hit soon. That may seem to be true but, in real life, that machine can go on for a long time without hitting the jackpot, longer than you have bankroll to outlast it. Simply because we know something about probable behavior with a small sample size does not mean we know anything about probable behavior over a much larger sample size.
Typhoon Pabuk is having some issues with dry air. It's eroded the southwestern quadrant of the storm's eyewall:

Quoting 487. Andrebrooks:

1st sign of an El Niño.
I thought rising water temps in the S.E.Pacific and off the N.W. South American Coast were the first indication of a possible El-Nino event...Please explain why those upper lows are the first sign of El-Nino.
524. skook
Quoting 518. Phatkhat:
Can someone please give me the URL for the old classic site? I just got a new computer, and I think last time I found the addy at the wiki, but now I can't find it. I despise the "new" site, and can't find anything. Help!

And thanks...



Link
Quoting Phatkhat:
Can someone please give me the URL for the old classic site? I just got a new computer, and I think last time I found the addy at the wiki, but now I can't find it. I despise the "new" site, and can't find anything. Help!

And thanks...

http://classic.wunderground.com
Quoting 498. sar2401:

Where did you come up with this? First, the low would be have to be tropical. Second, the winds would have to be a sustained 39 mph or above. The ECMWF, the most aggressive of the models, is predicting winds of 30-40 mph in gusts.


Third, Sandy was no longer tropical when it made landfall.
Quoting 505. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because even when its initial forecasts of higher-than-average pressures across the Atlantic came out, there were indications it would be dead wrong (i.e. the GFS/CFS showing below-average pressures throughout the entire period). This is why most discarded it. Pressures across the Atlantic have not been above-average this season; they've been average to quite a bit below-average at times actually...

June MSLP - average
July MSLP - average
August MSLP - below average
September(1) - current - below average

Now let's see what it was predicting back in June:

Even if the pressures were below average it still predicted a below average season. So I am sure there was more to this models reasoning.
Earth / Earth & moon from Cassini and from Mercury Messenger....



Link
Quoting 521. sar2401:

But that's not how probabilities work. First, we have a fairly limited knowledge of the earth's hurricane seasons. Generously, we know about 150 years of the tens of thousands of years that hurricanes have been occurring in the tropics. That means we could have had many of what we think of as anomalous seasons or strings of season and not know it. Second, nothing in probabilities or nature has to happen because of what happened before it. This is the typical
Gambler's Fallacy. Since this slot machine hasn't hit in a long time, it has to hit soon. That may seem to be true but, in real life, that machine can go on for a long time without hitting the jackpot, longer than you have bankroll to outlast it. Simply because we know something about probable behavior with a small sample size does not mean we know anything about probable behavior over a much larger sample size.


And we have had weaker seasons before. 1914 is one. Granted we may have missed some storms in 1914 but there are no accounts of a hurricane anywhere.

I wonder how the outbreak of World War I affected shipping. It might have been too late to affect trans-Atlantic shipping much in August/September.
Quoting 520. Jedkins01:


Here comes the next round, linear banding and west flow could mean torrential rains setting up for the Tampa Bay area. deepest convection and greatest lift is still out of radar range.
I'm sure when this is all said and done there will be some areas nearing record rainfall for the year.
@BaltimoreBrian,

Heh. I wish. But no, never came up with anything really that could get me close to winning the Google Fair. Besides, I wouldn't really consider meteorology something that could compete with those "life-saving or life-changing" sciences that always win the awards.

My older brother could've gone to the Fair if he hadn't been so lazy his senior year. He had programmed all the computers in our school's engineering room to calculate the next digit of pi and some other calculations. Unfortunately, 25 Dells aren't powerful enough to actually do the math.
I want to update my hurricane prediction. 12 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 majors...



for 2014. :)
Quoting 526. BaltimoreBrian:


Third, Sandy was no longer tropical when it made landfall.


I believe that Sandy's impact while still tropical was significant enough to consider it a tropical cyclone event for the Northeast. It's unique because it wasn't JUST a tropical event.

Just a thought. Not trying to one-up you like Cody :)
Quoting 531. Astrometeor:
@BaltimoreBrian,

Heh. I wish. But no, never came up with anything really that could get me close to winning the Google Fair. Besides, I wouldn't really consider meteorology something that could compete with those "life-saving or life-changing" sciences that always win the awards.

My older brother could've gone to the Fair if he hadn't been so lazy his senior year. He had programmed all the computers in our school's engineering room to calculate the next digit of pi and some other calculations. Unfortunately, 25 Dells aren't powerful enough to actually do the math.


Have you read Contact?
Quoting 533. wxgeek723:


I believe that Sandy's impact while still tropical was significant enough to consider it a tropical cyclone event for the Northeast. It's unique because it wasn't JUST a tropical event.

Just a thought. Not trying to one-up you like Cody :)
He'll always be Codessa to me ;)
The likelihood of a hurricane striking the Houston-Galveston is very low after a cold front moves through the area. I am way too busy with schoolwork and college activities to spend time tracking random storms (unfortunately). With that said, I am signing off for hurricane season 2013. Until next year...Michael

~galvestonhurricane
Quoting 534. BaltimoreBrian:


Have you read Contact?


No. I haven't read any of Carl Sagan's works. Never been around a book of his.
Quoting 521. sar2401:

But that's not how probabilities work. First, we have a fairly limited knowledge of the earth's hurricane seasons. Generously, we know about 150 years of the tens of thousands of years that hurricanes have been occurring in the tropics. That means we could have had many of what we think of as anomalous seasons or strings of seasons and not know it. Second, nothing in probabilities or nature has to happen because of what happened before it. This is the typical
Gambler's Fallacy. Since this slot machine hasn't hit in a long time, it has to hit soon. That may seem to be true but, in real life, that machine can go on for a long time without hitting the jackpot, longer than you have bankroll to outlast it. Simply because we know something about probable behavior with a small sample size does not mean we know anything about probable behavior over a much larger sample size.

When I said that I was assuming we weren't going to hit the jackpot and have another 2013 for the second year in a row. Even though technically each season is not predetermined by past occurrences, you can still use the past to help get a good idea of an outcome. I wasn't planning on getting this deep, just my opinion and I'm sticking with it.
Quoting 537. galvestonhurricane:
The likelihood of a hurricane striking the Houston-Galveston is very low after a cold front moves through the area. I am way too busy with schoolwork and college activities to spend time tracking random storms (unfortunately). With that said, I am signing off for hurricane season 2013. Until next year...Michael

~galvestonhurricane


Quoting 537. galvestonhurricane:
The likelihood of a hurricane striking the Houston-Galveston is very low after a cold front moves through the area. I am way too busy with schoolwork and college activities to spend time tracking random storms (unfortunately). With that said, I am signing off for hurricane season 2013. Until next year...Michael

~galvestonhurricane


Another one bites the dust!
Quoting 538. Astrometeor:


No. I haven't read any of Carl Sagan's works. Never been around a book of his.


You might like them. Cosmos and Contact are good.
Still some interesting disturbances out yonder..
Quoting 540. BaltimoreBrian:




It is very rare. I didn't say impossible. There is no need for you to be a wiseacre.
Quoting 523. hydrus:
I thought rising water temps in the S.E.Pacific and off the N.W. South American Coast were the first indication of a possible El-Nino event...Please explain why those upper lows are the first sign of El-Nino.
Could be another phenomenon to explain the increase in ULL's this season. I like to think of this season as a lack of seed for hurricane activity, just think about it if the seed is not planted in this case if there is not enough convective complexes of thunderstorms then how do you expect anything to form? Remember earlier in the season when the entire Pacific was active and the Atlantic was dead quiet, well the Pacific had those convective complexes of thunderstorms that met all environmental and atmospheric conditions conducive for development. So whatever seed that was planted was allowed to grow and develop in tropical cyclones and furthermore into mature tropical cyclones. Hurricanes like Humans are a life of their own. Shoot even a computer has a life. When we allow to open our minds up to this season then we can realize that not every season is going to be like 2010 or 2005, 1933, 1987 even if the pre-season predictions are calling for it. Remember when early predictions were calling for an active 2006 season? Well that never happened, same thing here, when we think we have it nailed down, we actually do not, there are still a lot of things we have not learned about the weather yet. If you a want a recent analog 2006 is it. We had the ULL's and SAL this season. Only thing that was different was 2006 was an El-Nino, but now we can realize that it doesn't take an El-Nino to have a quiet season.
November 1527 hurricane kills 200 off Texas coast. (page 12)

November 5th, 1839 a hurricane strikes Galveston (page 15)

Also Racer's storm 10/5/1839 105 dead at Brownsville
October 5, 1842 a hurricane hit Galveston
October 17, 1848 a hurricane hit the lower Texas coast.
October 12, 1886 a Cat 3 hit Beaumont, TX
October 16, 1912 a Cat 2 hit Corpus Christis, TX


If you need me, send me a private message. I hope to be on every so often.
Thanks for the link, Skook and Sar! :o) I am now a happy camper!
549. beell
Quoting 532. leofarnsworth:
I want to update my hurricane prediction. 12 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 majors...



for 2014. :)


For 2014, 3 new names to replace those retired in 2008.

Gonzalo replaces Gustav
Isaias replaces Ike
Paulette replaces Paloma
Quoting 538. Astrometeor:


No. I haven't read any of Carl Sagan's works. Never been around a book of his.
Cosmos is an excellent book, even by todays standard of technology. I urge you to read it. You will be glad you did. I read it the first time in 1980, about the same time of its first release. A lot of things have changed since then, but it still has a great amount of valuable information.
Quoting 532. leofarnsworth:
I want to update my hurricane prediction. 12 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 majors...



for 2014. :)
reported..:)
Quoting 530. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm sure when this is all said and done there will be some areas nearing record rainfall for the year.


Possibly, although record rainfall for the year in Central Florida is quite high. I know West Balm Beach's wettest year on record is more than 100 inches, its not going to be broken lol.
Quoting 543. hydrus:
Yes, it doesn't appear Africa is quite done. There is a lot of moisture, convection and vorticity going on. Also a lot of moisture still coming on shore from the Indian Ocean. You beat me to it, I was just about to post some images myself!
Quoting 545. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Could be another phenomenon to explain the increase in ULL's this season. I like to think of this season as a lack of seed for hurricane activity, just think about it if the seed is not planted in this case if there is not enough convective complexes of thunderstorms then how do you expect anything to form? Remember earlier in the season when the entire Pacific was active and the Atlantic was dead quiet, well the Pacific had those convective complexes of thunderstorms that met all environmental and atmospheric conditions conducive for development. So whatever seed that was planted was allowed to grow and develop in tropical cyclones and furthermore into mature tropical cyclones. Hurricanes like Humans are a life of their own. Shoot even a computer has a life. When we allow to open our minds up to this season then we can realize that not every season is going to be like 2010 or 2005, 1933, 1987 even if the pre-season predictions are calling for it. Remember when early predictions were calling for an active 2006 season? Well that never happened, same thing here, when we think we have it nailed down, we actually do not, there are still a lot of things we have not learned about the weather yet. If you a want a recent analog 2006 is it. We had the ULL's and SAL this season. Only thing that was different was 2006 was an El-Nino, but now we can realize that it doesn't take an El-Nino to have a quiet season.
Good post. I mentioned the Hadley Cell earlier on the blog, and what effects it has on tropical development. This years hurricane season reminds me of the car that seemed like it was about to start then conk out..:)
Quoting 552. sunlinepr:
Neat pic...What a cool world we live in...
There are some really intense thunderstorms heading my way, hopefully they'll make it here. They are getting stronger again and may again go severe given bowing structures.


Rainfall rates are insane with this system its fast moving and its still dumping 2 inches in its wake.
Quoting 556. hydrus:
Neat pic...What a cool world we live in...

Whenever I see your user handle, I think of this:
Yea, I'll post this one image....




Vorticity at 5/n and 5/w looks interesting.
Quoting 551. hydrus:
reported..:)



lol
561. flsky
Bonbons

Quoting 519. sunlinepr:
NASA Mars Rover Views Eclipse of the Sun by Phobos

New images from NASA's Mars rover Curiosity show a Martian moon, Phobos, fully silhouetted in front of the sun.

Quoting 556. hydrus:
Neat pic...What a cool world we live in...


Sometimes is us who make it ugly...

Quoting opal92nwf:

When I said that I was assuming we weren't going to hit the jackpot and have another 2013 for the second year in a row. Even though technically each season is not predetermined by past occurrences, you can still use the past to help get a good idea of an outcome. I wasn't planning on getting this deep, just my opinion and I'm sticking with it.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but basing opinions on faulty statistical reasoning is a bad way to form opinions. Nevertheless, report in next year about this time and see if your opinion came true.
Quoting 527. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Even if the pressures were below average it still predicted a below average season. So I am sure there was more to this models reasoning.

There was -- its false depiction of a moderate El Niño. That's what led to it forecasting above-average pressures in the first place.
Quoting Jedkins01:
There are some really intense thunderstorms heading my way, hopefully they'll make it here. They are getting stronger again and may again go severe given bowing structures.


Rainfall rates are insane with this system its fast moving and its still dumping 2 inches in its wake.

How much rain have you has so far today? We've had a lousy .28" and my current rain rate is .08" per hour.
For some reason, the line of dots in the Southeast makes me laugh, no idea why.

Quoting 552. sunlinepr:


GFS has an intact circulation of ex-Pabuk hitting the Canadian west coast late on the weekend. That's a bit odd.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC073-077-129-250445-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0195.130925T0356Z-130925T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1156 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
EAST CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WESTERN WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CRAWFORDVILLE...

* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT

* AT 1154 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 25 MILES WEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE...OR
NEAR JEWEL FIRE TOWER...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EAST
CAMP...POPLAR CAMP...SMITH CREEK...SANBORN...BROWN HOUSE...
SOPCHOPPY...BUCKHORN...ARRAN...PANACEA...HELEN...H ILLIARDVILLE...
MEDART...TULLY...SPRING HILL AND LEON SINKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8433 3003 8437 3009 8486 3036 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 267DEG 29KT 3021 8477

$$

08-LAMERS





Quoting 521. sar2401:

But that's not how probabilities work. First, we have a fairly limited knowledge of the earth's hurricane seasons. Generously, we know about 150 years of the tens of thousands of years that hurricanes have been occurring in the tropics. That means we could have had many of what we think of as anomalous seasons or strings of seasons and not know it. Second, nothing in probabilities or nature has to happen because of what happened before it. This is the typical
Gambler's Fallacy. Since this slot machine hasn't hit in a long time, it has to hit soon. That may seem to be true but, in real life, that machine can go on for a long time without hitting the jackpot, longer than you have bankroll to outlast it. Simply because we know something about probable behavior with a small sample size does not mean we know anything about probable behavior over a much larger sample size.
I disagree. You're comparing coin flips to slot machines to hurricane activity and saying they're all the same as far as predicting the next result. Not true.
1. Coin Flip...this one is truly a 50/50 proposition on the next flip...makes no difference if heads or tails have come in 100 straight times...with a fair coin the odds remain 50/50 on flip #101
.
2. Slot machine...programmed to pay the jackpot 1 in 100,000 pulls(as an example). Doesn't mean that if it's been a blank on pull 1-99,999 that it's a sure thing to win on pull 100,000. In the longer run, a machine like this will pay 9-11 times every million pulls. Could be 2 pulls in a row or a space of 250,000 pulls before jackpots. If you knew walking into a casino which machines hadn't paid in over 200,000 pulls you'd have an edge over playing these machine that just hit 2 jackpots in the last 25,000 pulls.
.
3. The tropical cyclone activity record is sound with the history we have of the last 500 years or so from sailors, plus records nature has left.
I think Opal's right in that the odds say we revert more to the mean next year, and the year after that. The mean for the last 150 years is strong enough. If we see it change, like 5 straight seasons like this one...then you'd have to be smart as a gambler and bet that the trend continues away from the mean....you'd have to change with nature. There is a fundamental difference between nature and coin flips or slot machines.
I actually have an article to read in French about the heat wave of 2003.

Des temperatures exceptionelles, jamais atteintes depuis 1949
Quoting 565. sar2401:

How much rain have you has so far today? We've had a lousy .28" and my current rain rate is .08" per hour.


We didn't get any yet today, but we are going to get nailed with a line of strong to severe thunderstorms with rainfall rates of around 4 inches per hour.

Lot's of lightning to my west and strong inflow of low level cumulus flowing do west into the line, great convective inflow means it will likely make it through here and maintain its strength.
Quoting 546. BaltimoreBrian:
November 1527 hurricane kills 200 off Texas coast. (page 12)

November 5th, 1839 a hurricane strikes Galveston (page 15)

Also Racer's storm 10/5/1839 105 dead at Brownsville
October 5, 1842 a hurricane hit Galveston
October 17, 1848 a hurricane hit the lower Texas coast.
October 12, 1886 a Cat 3 hit Beaumont, TX
October 16, 1912 a Cat 2 hit Corpus Christis, TX



I've long had a theory about the rise in tropical cyclone frequency in October for the Atlantic.



Living on the Gulf Coast I have noticed a tendency for the first appreciable cold front to pass through in late September, more or less like this year. A strong trough can pull a lot of moisture out of the tropics and inject a lot of dry air in its place. A delay until the next trough penetrates south would allow the atmosphere in the GOM and points south (prime formation area for October) to rebuild the moist environment needed for TC formation. The first question I have is whether my subjective impression about the timing of significant troughs is borne out by the data. Next I wonder if such a trough does dry things out. And so forth.
Quoting 570. wxgeek723:
I actually have an article to read in French about the heat wave of 2003.

Des temperatures exceptionelles, jamais atteintes depuis 1949


il y a certaines personnes qui aime beaucoup quand c'est chaud
Quoting Jedkins01:


Possibly, although record rainfall for the year in Central Florida is quite high. I know West Balm Beach's wettest year on record is more than 100 inches, its not going to be broken lol.

Dothan, AL has had 65.65" so far this year, which may end up beating the previous record, set in 1975, of 75.79". It still has a ways to go to beat the state record in Greenville during the same year of 115.22". It's still quite amazing that we've had this much rain with very few serious flooding problems, while locations in Florida have had less rain have had more serious flooding. Must have something to do with the soil types and drainage systems.
Wanna know why the lack of rainfall in the east and se peninsula all of a sudden? Dr. Masters is on point on potential development in the SW Atlatic.

850


500


Tough to see but I bet there is dry air in the mid-levels drying us out as a result. POPS were 90% for this evening and not a drop. NWS is now at 40%
Springlike storm moving eastward from the Gulf.. I suspect that a Severe Storm Watch may be required for the Peninsula of FL if these storms continue to strengthen. Very odd for late Summer. This is something that usually happens in late Winter/Spring.
Quoting 572. bappit:

I've long had a theory about the rise in tropical cyclone frequency in October for the Atlantic.



Living on the Gulf Coast I have noticed a tendency for the first appreciable cold front to pass through in late September, more or less like this year. A strong trough can pull a lot of moisture out of the tropics and inject a lot of dry air in its place. A delay until the next trough penetrates south would allow the atmosphere in the GOM and points south (prime formation area for October) to rebuild the moist environment needed for TC formation. The first question I have is whether my subjective impression about the timing of significant troughs is borne out by the data. Next I wonder if such a trough does dry things out. And so forth.


I hadn't thought about it too much, if you were to ask me I would say the Oct secondary max is from the ends of cold fronts making it to the northwest Caribbean and becoming seedlings for storms. But I'm not sure.
Quoting 574. sar2401:

Dothan, AL has had 65.65" so far this year, which may end up beating the previous record, set in 1975, of 75.79". It still has a ways to go to beat the state record in Greenville during the same year of 115.22". It's still quite amazing that we've had this much rain with very few serious flooding problems, while locations in Florida have had less rain have had more serious flooding. Must have something to do with the soil types and drainage systems.


Typically, drainage here is actually often better than most places in the country as the sandy soil can handle a lot of water and displace it quickly. The flooding that is happening isn't too bad relative to some places, its just that rainfall has been heavy for weeks and months so the ground has been saturated for so long that 3 to 6 inch events cause worse flooding that usual.

Rainfall YTD was really low up until June in much of Florida so much of the YTD totals area really more like 4 month totals which is excessive.



South Alabama's climate isn't much different from Florida in terms of heavy rainfall, the difference is the winters are a bit cooler but not much different other than that, as a result, it makes sense why you can handle a lot.

Quoting 566. Astrometeor:
For some reason, the line of dots in the Southeast makes me laugh, no idea why.

I know exactly why you are laughing, you guys get the good stuff up north, and laugh when we make a big fuss over a small wind event down here, in terms of severe weather.
Quoting 577. BaltimoreBrian:


I hadn't thought about it too much, if you were to ask me I would say the Oct secondary max is from the ends of cold fronts making it to the northwest Caribbean and becoming seedlings for storms. But I'm not sure.

I looked at the map of TC formation, and the prime area in mid October is in the far western Caribbean, not a place for cold fronts to reach. So I'd suspect another source of seedlings.

This potential system off Florida's east coast seems probable. Conditions are ripe for it, but after that, northward is storm killing shear which is expected to increase in the coming days. Think the NHC is not expecting any development because of that. Hard to see any organized system making it through that shear. What was 95L though might finally gain some convection over night and through tomorrow and at least be interesting.


Substantial MCS approaching Tampa Bay, 2 to 4 inches possible from this where heavier cells impact.
Quoting bappit:

I've long had a theory about the rise in tropical cyclone frequency in October for the Atlantic.



Living on the Gulf Coast I have noticed a tendency for the first appreciable cold front to pass through in late September, more or less like this year. A strong trough can pull a lot of moisture out of the tropics and inject a lot of dry air in its place. A delay until the next trough penetrates south would allow the atmosphere in the GOM and points south (prime formation area for October) to rebuild the moist environment needed for TC formation. The first question I have is whether my subjective impression about the timing of significant troughs is borne out by the data. Next I wonder if such a trough does dry things out. And so forth.

I have my own whacky theory about that chart. It's like mountain climbing. Going up is slow, and you need lots of stops to rest. This is where storms form. Going down the other side, the mountain gets steeper, and the only thing you can do is occasionally catch a branch to slow your descent. That jump in storms in mid-October is the atmosphere grabbing that branch, getting enough moisture, getting a slackening off in the shear, and hitting the highest average SST's during the second week in October. If that branch holds, we can get a storm. If not, the slope gets so steep that almost nothing will stop our fall. We get one more chance around November 10, but that's pretty slim. After that, we're going to end up at the bottom of the slope in a very high percentage of seasons. That's why I've always had the opinion we should calculate the likelihood of a hurricane developing until about July 20 and a tropical storm until about November 10. If we pass those dates with nothing happening, there's an excellent chance nothing will happen for the rest of the season. Please don't haul out the track maps of hurricanes that developed after July 20 or tropical storms that happened after November 10. We all know there have been exceptions, but the exceptions don't prove the rule.
Quoting 576. reedzone:
Springlike storm moving eastward from the Gulf.. I suspect that a Severe Storm Watch may be required for the Peninsula of FL if these storms continue to strengthen. Very odd for late Summer. This is something that usually happens in late Winter/Spring.


Definitely not springlike moisture though, the thermodynamic profile is more like a tropical cyclone, lol.

I get what you mean though, a shortwave trough digging into the eastern gulf in September is a bit unusual.
Quoting 575. ProgressivePulse:
Wanna know why the lack of rainfall in the east and se peninsula all of a sudden? Dr. Masters is on point on potential development in the SW Atlatic.

850


500


Tough to see but I bet there is dry air in the mid-levels drying us out as a result. POPS were 90% for this evening and not a drop. NWS is now at 40%


PW's are between 2.2 and 2.5 inches across Florida, you can't blame a lack of convection on dry air, its about as moist as the atmosphere will get.
Quoting 580. bappit:

I looked at the map of TC formation, and the prime area in mid October is in the far western Caribbean, not a place for cold fronts to reach. So I'd suspect another source of seedlings.



That's a good point.
Quoting Tribucanes:
This potential system off Florida's east coast seems probable. Conditions are ripe for it, but after that, northward is storm killing shear which is expected to increase in the coming days. Think the NHC is not expecting any development because of that. Hard to see any organized system making it through that shear. What was 95L though might finally gain some convection over night and through tomorrow and at least be interesting.

The whole thing done fell apart in SE AL. It looked good in Montgomery about 5 hours ago, with decent convection, almost an inch of rain, and gravity wave behind the front with 30 mph winds and 37 mph gusts. We got no convection, some light rain, .30" of total rain, and my highest wind has been a 10 mph gust. The rain has almost cleared out area, and it looks like southern Georgia will get the same scenario. If this low is really going to get up the east coast, it better not get too far away from the coast or it's going to turn out to be another bust.
Quoting 569. CosmicEvents:
... 2. Slot machine...programmed to pay the jackpot 1 in 100,000 pulls(as an example). Doesn't mean that if it's been a blank on pull 1-99,999 that it's a sure thing to win on pull 100,000. In the longer run, a machine like this will pay 9-11 times every million pulls. Could be 2 pulls in a row or a space of 250,000 pulls before jackpots. If you knew walking into a casino which machines hadn't paid in over 200,000 pulls you'd have an edge over playing these machine that just hit 2 jackpots in the last 25,000 pulls. ...

Not necessarily. Depends on how the random number generator is programmed.

If the random number that determines whether to pay on each pull is truly statistically independent, then the probalistic reasoning in this case is the same as a coin flip, and no, you do not have an advantage if you know which machines haven't paid recently.

However, if the random number is generated from a list with exhaustion, similar to drawing cards from a deck without replacing them between draws, then yes, you do have an advantage.
Sar your wacky theory has science to back it up, the western Caribbean has a very unstable atmosphere in October throughout the troposphere and weak tropospheric winds. These conditions provide enough latent heat to be transported from the surface and with the coriolis forcing it can certainly lead to strong cyclonic rotation.
Quoting Jedkins01:


PW's are between 2.2 and 2.5 inches across Florida, you can't blame a lack of convection on dry air, its about as moist as the atmosphere will get.

Our PW's were about 1.9" and Montgomery's was 1.3" They got the convection rain, and wind, we got some light rain. You could actually watch the storm begin to fill and VIL values start to decrease as they got closer to us. I don't know when those PW's were measured (I think around 2:00) but, between then and now, there was some much drier air that snuck in that the balloons haven't caught up with yet. There's no other explanation for what I saw happen in SE AL. I'm now seeing the same thing happen in the Panhandle, and you should be seeing the storms approaching you starting to fill and become less severe. Undetected dry air in the mid-levels is the only thing that makes sense to me.
Quoting 583. sar2401:

I have my own whacky theory about that chart. It's like mountain climbing. Going up is slow, and you need lots of stops to rest. This is where storms form. Going down the other side, the mountain gets steeper, and the only thing you can do is occasionally catch a branch to slow your descent. That jump in storms in mid-October is the atmosphere grabbing that branch, getting enough moisture, getting a slackening off in the shear, and hitting the highest average SST's during the second week in October. If that branch holds, we can get a storm. If not, the slope gets so steep that almost nothing will stop our fall. We get one more chance around November 10, but that's pretty slim. After that, we're going to end up at the bottom of the slope in a very high percentage of seasons. That's why I've always had the opinion we should calculate the likelihood of a hurricane developing until about July 20 and a tropical storm until about November 10. If we pass those dates with nothing happening, there's an excellent chance nothing will happen for the rest of the season. Please don't haul out the track maps of hurricanes that developed after July 20 or tropical storms that happened after November 10. We all know there have been exceptions, but the exceptions don't prove the rule.


This suggests it's not unusual to go through July without a single hurricane.

Link
Quoting EstherD:

Not necessarily. Depends on how the random number generator is programmed.

If the random number that determines whether to pay on each pull is truly statistically independent, then the probalistic reasoning in this case is the same as a coin flip, and no, you do not have an advantage if you know which machines haven't paid recently.

However, if the random number is generated from a list with exhaustion, similar to drawing cards from a deck without replacing them between draws, then yes, you do have an advantage.

Quite true, and the boys in Vegas are not in the habit of making or using any pseudo-random number generator that will lose them money. The most common seed number now used to start the pseudo-random number going is an electronic thermistor inside the machine. The thermistor measures the internal temperature of the machines to the thousandths of a degree. This number, which changes about 35 times a second, is then used to select a seed number from about 1.2 billion combinations of seed numbers, assuming a four reel machine. Te same computer keeps track of all seed numbers and won't reuse the same number more than once in 25,000 times, again, just to make sure no one can guess when a machine might pay off.

If you want to learn a lot about statistics, study Vegas. They don't keep all those lights on by losing to too many chumps. :-)
Kori, any thoughts on the origin of high amount of late season storms that form in the western Caribbean? Could it be the unstable atmosphere throughout the troposphere and weak tropospheric winds providing enough latent heat to be transported upward from the surface and coriolis forcing to cause enough cyclonic rotation to form storms? Would that in itself be enough? Or is it as simple as tropical waves and the very favorable conditions in the western Caribbean?
Quoting 595. Tribucanes:
Kori, any thoughts on the origin or high amount of late season storms that form in the western Caribbean? Could it be the unstable atmosphere throughout the troposphere and weak tropospheric winds providing enough latent heat to be transported upward from the surface and coriolis forcing to cause enough cyclonic rotation to form storms? Would that in itself be enough? Or is it as simple as tropical waves and the very favorable conditions in the western Caribbean?


A combination of both, perhaps, and also because the ITCZ tends to migrate farther south for the fall, leaving the western Caribbean as the primary focal point for genesis.
ma nature going pffffffffft
Evening, guys. Read through the blog's comments for tonight, and I saw something about Pabuk & Canada?? So, experts & aficionados, is this unusual?

Quoting 588. EstherD:



EstherD - you have a very cool avatar
Quoting 598. LAbonbon:
Evening, guys. Read through the blog's comments for tonight, and I saw something about Pabuk & Canada?? So, experts & aficionados, is this unusual?



I don't study the western Pacific nearly as much as I do the Atlantic or east Pacific, but it seems fairly common for post-tropical (extratropical) cyclones that were once Pacific typhoons to ride the westerlies rather far to the north, sometimes to Alaska or even Canada.

Hurricane Ioke in 2006 was among them:

Link
Quoting 594. sar2401:
... If you want to learn a lot about statistics, study Vegas. They don't keep all those lights on by losing to too many chumps. :-)


Agreed. Casinos learned their lesson re: predictable behavior of lists without replacement way back in the 60's and 70's when card-counting was used to give the player a significant edge over the dealer in blackjack. Rules were changed to cut that edge back to almost nothing.

Unlikely electronic slots have ever been built with that flaw. But... Casinos would like players to think they work like that. Nourishing the Gambler's Fallacy helps the bottom line, so it probably won't be stomped out anytime soon. Hope springs eternal and all that.
Quoting KoritheMan:


This suggests it's not unusual to go through July without a single hurricane.

Link

And not even much of a chance of a tropical storm, although we seem to be able to get unlimited numbers of depressions and invests. :-) September 10 isn't even a magic date, but no majors by October 1 does start to get to be a bigger deal. No majors by October 20 and, in the vast majority of seasons, we might as well hang it up when it comes to majors. By November 1, if we haven't gotten more than the two hurricanes we've already had, we can start to kiss hurricanes goodby. By November 10, we can pretty much forget any more tropical storms. I know "The Chart" has been used as part of Hurricanes 101 when people start getting antsy, but "The Chart" contains some dates that are good to understand if you hope to be an amateur storm forecaster.
Quoting 599. LAbonbon:


EstherD - you have a very cool avatar

Cropped version of an image of the Horsehead Nebula in Orion. Picked it up from Astronomy Picture of the Day many years ago. IIRC, it came from this image.
Pabuk's making the turn...

Quoting 603. EstherD:

Cropped version of an image of the Horsehead Nebula in Orion. Picked it up from Astronomy Picture of the Day many years ago. IIRC, it came from this image.


Very nice :)

I think it may have been the Picture of the Day where I first saw the 'Pillars of Creation'. Your avatar of the Horsehead Nebula is similar in it's effect on the viewer, I think. Both are quite memorable.
Quoting EstherD:


Agreed. Casinos learned their lesson re: predictable behavior of lists without replacement way back in the 60's and 70's when card-counting was used to give the player a significant edge over the dealer in blackjack. Rules were changed to cut that edge back to almost nothing.

Unlikely electronic slots have ever been built with that flaw. But... Casinos would like players to think they work like that. Nourishing the Gambler's Fallacy helps the bottom line, so it probably won't be stomped out anytime soon. Hope springs eternal and all that.

Actually, the very first Jacks or Better video poker were built with a several potentially fatal flaws. The original pay table was 10 for a full house and 5 for a flush. The odds for a flush are 508:1 and a full house is 693:1. It is 26% more difficult to hit a boat than a flush, but the payout is 50% higher. The Boys were thrown into a panic once they realized they miscalculated the pay table, and a smart player could beat them without ever hitting a royal. They went to a 9/6 pay table after about a year, and now 8/6 are common and the house has the edge again.

The other fatal flaw was dealing the second five cards only after the first five. The random number generator was exhaustible, since the last five were drawn from the same five as the first hand. Teams would hit the casinos. play minimum bets, and then start to be able to pick out patterns in the second five dealt, much like card counting in blackjack. They started losing so much money per machine it almost killed video poker. Luckily for them, a programmer came up with a simple solution - deal all 10 at the same time, but you only see 10 cards dealt from the same pseudo-random number generator, making it impossible to see any patterns in the second hand.

Vegas was saved, and the Boys prospered...until Howard Hughes came along. :-)

Sorry for the detour down the memory lane of the old Strip. I return you now to the land of no storms.
Quoting 602. sar2401:

And not even much of a chance of a tropical storm, although we seem to be able to get unlimited numbers of depressions and invests. :-) September 10 isn't even a magic date, but no majors by October 1 does start to get to be a bigger deal. No majors by October 20 and, in the vast majority of seasons, we might as well hang it up when it comes to majors. By November 1, if we haven't gotten more than the two hurricanes we've already had, we can start to kiss hurricanes goodby. By November 10, we can pretty much forget any more tropical storms. I know "The Chart" has been used as part of Hurricanes 101 when people start getting antsy, but "The Chart" contains some dates that are good to understand if you hope to be an amateur storm forecaster.


Oh no you mean people will not die or lose everything they have ? how horrible
Quoting 608. Barkeep1967:


Oh no you mean people will not die or lose everything they have ? how horrible


It's comments like this that serve only to antagonize. It also happens to come off as incredibly self-righteous.
Quoting 540. BaltimoreBrian:



I can see that happening this year
06z update on 92E.

EP, 92, 2013092506, , BEST, 0, 150N, 973W, 20, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting 610. Stormchaser121:

I can see that happening this year


lol
Quoting 612. KoritheMan:


lol

Hahaha uh huh im trying to hold on to hope man! :)
Quoting 613. Stormchaser121:

Hahaha uh huh im trying to hold on to hope man! :)


A little hope can go a long ways...
Speaking of late Gulf Coast hurricanes...









Proof the Gulf can be open for business until the season officially ends. I neglected to list a host of other such storms as well, although few compare to Kate.

The odds aren't particularly likely, though.
Violent earthquake in Pakistan Link
Quoting 615. KoritheMan:
Speaking of late Gulf Coast hurricanes...









Proof the Gulf can be open for business until the season officially ends. I neglected to list a host of other such storms as well, although few compare to Kate.

The odds aren't particularly likely, though.
I recognize #2 as Hurricane Juan (1985)...dumped a lot of rain on us and tornadoes in Alabama. Only November storm to hit LA of late.

I believe #3 is Hurricane Kate (1983).

And I remember #4 as the storm that was part of that "Monsoon Mess" of 2009 which fizzled from a Cat 2-3 to an extratropical storm. Name can't reach my head, though.

Update: OOPS...forgot to read the plain text. I remember them now: Jeanne (1980), Juan, Kate, and Ida (2009).
Quoting 601. EstherD:


Agreed. Casinos learned their lesson re: predictable behavior of lists without replacement way back in the 60's and 70's when card-counting was used to give the player a significant edge over the dealer in blackjack. Rules were changed to cut that edge back to almost nothing.

Unlikely electronic slots have ever been built with that flaw. But... Casinos would like players to think they work like that. Nourishing the Gambler's Fallacy helps the bottom line, so it probably won't be stomped out anytime soon. Hope springs eternal and all that.

Card counting still works, but it requires a team of card counters working together. I wish I had a link, but I remember an interesting story I read where a group of students from a northeast uni decided to take money from casinos by working together. They were bright, practiced a lot, were well organized and disciplined. The casinos in Vegas realized what they were doing before too long. The casinos banned them and intimidated them. The card counters moved to smaller casinos across the U.S., but news of them spread. Sure wish I had a link.
Quoting 617. AnthonyJKenn:
I recognize #2 as Hurricane Juan (1985)...dumped a lot of rain on us and tornadoes in Alabama. Only November storm to hit LA of late.

I believe #3 is Hurricane Kate (1983).

And I remember #4 as the storm that was part of that "Monsoon Mess" of 2009 which fizzled from a Cat 2-3 to an extratropical storm. Name can't reach my head, though.

Update: OOPS...forgot to read the plain text. I remember them now: Jeanne (1980), Juan, Kate, and Ida (2009).


Kate was in 1985. >_>
Quoting 588. EstherD:

Not necessarily. Depends on how the random number generator is programmed.

If the random number that determines whether to pay on each pull is truly statistically independent, then the probalistic reasoning in this case is the same as a coin flip, and no, you do not have an advantage if you know which machines haven't paid recently.

However, if the random number is generated from a list with exhaustion, similar to drawing cards from a deck without replacing them between draws, then yes, you do have an advantage.

They take great pains to make the slots as random as they can within the parameters they want, e.g., the casino is guaranteed to win X percent of a player's money over time. One source of randomness they might use is temperature fluctuations. Randomness is in the casino's interest as you essentially are pointing out.
Good morning folks!................
Central florida in the bullseye again today..........
Quoting 620. bappit:

They take great pains to make the slots as random as they can within the parameters they want, e.g., the casino is guaranteed to win X percent of a player's money over time. One source of randomness they might use is temperature fluctuations. Randomness is in the casino's interest as you essentially are pointing out.


When I was working at Grosvenor Casino in Blackpool, a former boss from elsewhere, used to come in every night to play the electronic roulette. I asked him why he didn't play the real table, and he said there was a pattern to playing the electronic one. I was usually too busy to try and watch and see if there was or if he was making anything! I think fruit machines are more popular here then slot machines. I dunno if they have them there, but assume so being there's Star Wars and Pac man themed ones and themed after shows and movies etc and wouldn't think they'd go to all that effort just for the UK market LOL But my ex got terribly hooked on those. I know how to play them from watching him, so when I come across one of the few that you can win on if you know how, will have a bit of a play. But they got rid of most of them since a lot of people found out how to win on them LOL

Anyway, has been mild for September here in North Wales, last few days down right warm...but then got really foggy yesterday and back to rainy today. Annoying, as need to get the inside of my car cleaned spiffy for trade in today as getting a new car woop!

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 69 degrees with a WIND CHILL of 69, and dew point of 68. No more heat index, now I get wind chill. So I guess this afternoon it'll be 92 with a wind chill of 92. Really?

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, egg white and veggie breakfast bowl, scrambled eggs with ricotta and brocolini, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, berry breakfast pizza, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Good morning fellows. It wasn't over with Usagi after landfall, unfortunately:

Heavy rains kill 36 in Vietnam, Cambodia
by Agence France-Presse, posted on 09/24/2013 6:39 PM | Updated 09/25/2013 7:20 AM
HANOI, Vietnam - Heavy monsoon rains exacerbated by Typhoon Usagi have pounded parts of Vietnam and Cambodia killing at least 36 people, authorities said Tuesday, September 24, with many swept to their deaths in floods. ...
So whats everyone's take on that possible tropical storm/nor'easter hitting the east coast , everyone went quiet. I am also new here.
Morning all... here we are, one day closer to a September without even one major hurricane in the ATL...

Fascinating...

Later, all. Gotta run!
Quoting 627. Climate175:
So whats everyone's take on that possible tropical storm/nor'easter hitting the east coast , everyone went quiet. I am also new here.


Based on what's happened so far this season? Lots of talk but very little action. Much ado 'bout nothing.
i wonder if we are gonna really get that heavy rain today.... we only got .62 of an inch since sunday and they predicted 4 to 8 inches... we even had a flood watch the past 4 days and its been mostly sunny here since sunday ... just some light drizzle here and there the past 4 days on the east coast of florida...
Quoting 622. LargoFl:

Morning all, Had another 1.5 inches yesterday that brings a 2 day total so far up to 6.5 inches zephyrhills fl. Had lots of rain over night last night. Looks like lots more today.
Quoting 627. Climate175:
So whats everyone's take on that possible tropical storm/nor'easter hitting the east coast , everyone went quiet. I am also new here.
0-10%
Quoting 632. lakeplacidny:
0-10%
From what i hear and see 10% i agree
Quoting 631. severstorm:

Morning all, Had another 1.5 inches yesterday that brings a 2 day total so far up to 6.5 inches zephyrhills fl. Had lots of rain over night last night. Looks like lots more today.
we,ve had .62 of an inch here in daytona since sunday... gotta love the 60 to 80% and 100% chances they predicted for here
my pool was 2 inches from the skimmer box line on saturday and its still 2 inches from the line.... not much here the past 4 days as we thought would happen nothing
Quoting 634. lakeplacidny:
we,ve had .62 of an inch here in daytona since sunday... gotta love the 60 to 80% and 100% chances they predicted for here

I,m on the west side plenty of rain last 2 days. Plenty on the way. Gulf is loaded this morning.
637. MahFL
Quoting 634. lakeplacidny:
we,ve had .62 of an inch here in daytona since sunday... gotta love the 60 to 80% and 100% chances they predicted for here


Yes the JAX NWS over-hyped our rain chances too. I don' consider .51in as heavy rain.
Quoting 629. PensacolaDoug:


Based on what's happened so far this season? Lots of talk but very little action. Much ado 'bout nothing.
very very true statement.... just do what we do, look out the window and thats what you'll get.. anything forcasted beyond 1 hour you can throw out in the trash
Quoting 637. MahFL:


Yes the JAX NWS over-hyped our rain chances too. I don' consider .51in as heavy rain.
chaulk it up to the usual bad forcasts as always , nothing new...
640. beell
Yesterday's pseudo-color SAL imagery at 15Z.


(click for full image)
Quoting 636. severstorm:

I,m on the west side plenty of rain last 2 days. Plenty on the way. Gulf is loaded this morning.
yeah i see that but they shouldnt have forcasted 60 to 100% heavy rain for here the past 4 days.... most here went to the beach everyday
always remember this one rule.... when they say 0% to 10% chance of rain break out your umbrellas and rain gear... when they say 60 to 100% chance of rain . plan a beach day.... and that is 100% true all the time
Quoting 641. lakeplacidny:
yeah i see that but they shouldnt have forcasted 60 to 100% heavy rain for here the past 4 days.... most here went to the beach everyday

Well i hope you get some rain today.
Quoting 643. severstorm:

Well i hope you get some rain today.
they are saying 100% chance of heavy rain again today and i dont see much on radar for here.. so its off to work for now then the beach later have a good day all
Quoting 627. Climate175:
So whats everyone's take on that possible tropical storm/nor'easter hitting the east coast , everyone went quiet. I am also new here.


Still here on hour 132.... I'm going to be a bit more optimistic and say 20%.

Quoting 627. Climate175:
So whats everyone's take on that possible tropical storm/nor'easter hitting the east coast , everyone went quiet. I am also new here.


The thing is, some of the other models are not picking up on this system in the same time frame.

Navgem



Quoting 598. LAbonbon:
Evening, guys. Read through the blog's comments for tonight, and I saw something about Pabuk & Canada?? So, experts & aficionados, is this unusual?




nop not at all this is the time of year where i watch the storm in the W PAC Typhoon Freda be came a strong Columbus Day Storm of 1962

Link



so this time of year i watch the W pac too see if CA can get a good wetting rains from a lift overe Typhoon or a strong wind storm
Quoting 647. Tazmanian:



nop not at all this is the time of year where i watch the storm in the W PAC Typhoon Freda be came a strong Columbus Day Storm of 1962

Link



so this time of year i watch the W pac too see if CA can get a good wetting rains from a lift overe Typhoon or a strong wind storm


Already making the turn east, I think you will be correct in this scenario, but not at the strength of the 1962 storm.
NHC doesn't look excited about anything developing in the next five days including the low off U.S East coast.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
CHARLOTTE AND LEE. IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...CITRUS...DESOTO...
HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH...LEV Y...
MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6
INCHES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE
FLOODING CONDITIONS.

* RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS
WELL AS ALONG AREA RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT TO ANY RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS AND BE READY
TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.
Morning Everyone!

Got back from Espana last night. Perfect weather, excellent trip. Had way too much fun. Time of my life!

Apparently it's rained for 2.5 days straight through and counting here in swFL.

NAM.. SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT NEXT 24 HOURS......
Pakistan earthquake: Hundreds dead in Balochistan
BBC, 25 September 2013 Last updated at 10:05 GMT

Together with those sad news about so many deaths come some fresh and clear photos of the new island, f.e. this:


The island is up to 200m (656ft) long and 100m (328ft) wide, officials say. Such land masses have appeared before along the Balochistan coastline, and disappeared again after heavy rains and winds.
Source and more see link above.

Josh, I'm glad to hear that your trip to Europe has been a success.
at least its cooler & not much rain e cen fl.
heavy rain here now and strong gusts of wind unlike yesterday around here..stronger gusts
good thing i took in the things that blow around....
accuweather says 4-6 inches in this batch over me now..
alot of this around the gulf coast of florida.......
Quoting 662. GeoffreyWPB:
looks like im in the bullseye today Geo..last week NAM said wens was going to be the worst day..it sure was right this time..really coming down hard and fast.
LakeOkeechobee--15.9ft
local met on tv said that wind and heavy rain that went over me was a weak meso low and it has dropped 3-5 inches of rain on my area and its still raining
Good idea. I hope it will work out for the benefit of endangered people and for environment as well :)

Gardens Used to Reduce Landslides
Science Daily, Sep. 24, 2013 — With a technology developed at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), the slopes of the roads could become monumental gardens, reducing the number of landslides and isolation between populations. ...
PABUK looks like it is going to graze the most east edge of Japan. The forecast kept slowly shifting west..


Heavy rains spawned by Typhoon Usagi kill 36 in Vietnam, Cambodia

HANOI — Heavy monsoon rains exacerbated by Typhoon Usagi have pounded parts of Vietnam and Cambodia killing at least 36 people, authorities said Tuesday, with many swept to their deaths in floods.
Despite not being directly hit by Usagi — the world’s most powerful storm this year — parts of Southeast Asia have seen a worsening of their annual rainy season as the typhoon barrelled through the Philippines and China in recent days.
Central and southern Vietnam have been hit by bad weather since early last week, inundating fields and villages, with 24 dead and six missing, according to a 10-day update from the country’s flood and storm control department.
In Cambodia, officials said low pressure from the typhoon caused heavy rains, swelling the Mekong river with floods sweeping across several provinces.
At least 12 people, including six children under six years old, have died in the deluge, said Keo Vy of the National Disaster Management Committee.
Typhoon Usagi killed at least two people in the Philippines and some 25 people in southern China as it swept across the region over the weekend.
Strong winds and torrential rain lashed the Chinese coast after making landfall in Guangdong province northeast of Hong Kong on Sunday evening.
As the typhoon bore down on Hong Kong, operators shut down one of the world’s busiest sea ports and nearly 450 flights were either cancelled or delayed on Sunday.
At least 18 further deaths have been reported in the Philippines in monsoon rains worsened by the typhoon, which also unleashed landslides and power outages across southern Taiwan at the weekend as it ploughed through the Luzon Strait with ferocious winds and heavy downpours.
Some 7,000 houses were inundated and more than 5,000 hectares of crops have been damaged in Vietnam, officials said, although much of the water has since receded.
Early this month, the communist country reported 21 deaths as flash floods and landslides ravaged northern mountainous areas.
Last year, more than 260 people were killed in floods in Vietnam.

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/86423/heavy-rain s-spawned-by-typhoon-usagi-kill-36-in-vietnam-camb odia
Could get ugly here today as the land heats up. Widespread flooding in Sarasota, Venice and Englewood from storms of past two days. Rain let up late yesterday only to steadily intensify this morning. Looks like a cold core low taking shape as well.

Sorry, Nor'easter fans, it looks like youre not getting any.

GEOS-5 Doesn't wrap this potential east coast storm up much.. Check out what comes down from Alaska..



Sun will be up soon in Breckenridge. Snow up top! Ski season soon! Whoo hoo!


Quoting 670. barbamz:
Good idea. I hope it will work out for the benefit of endangered people and for environment as well :)

Gardens Used to Reduce Landslides
Science Daily, Sep. 24, 2013 — With a technology developed at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), the slopes of the roads could become monumental gardens, reducing the number of landslides and isolation between populations. ...


I had a great time Barb. Thanks for your recommendations/help. We got to do everything we wanted, walked probably 100 miles or more and had the absolute time of our lives. Six days was not enough. In fact, I thought about just staying in Spain. Seriously!
Quoting 656. barbamz:
Pakistan earthquake: Hundreds dead in Balochistan
BBC, 25 September 2013 Last updated at 10:05 GMT

Together with those sad news about so many deaths come some fresh and clear photos of the new island, f.e. this:


The island is up to 200m (656ft) long and 100m (328ft) wide, officials say. Such land masses have appeared before along the Balochistan coastline, and disappeared again after heavy rains and winds.
Source and more see link above.



Earthquake poop....
Quoting 678. GatorWX:


I had a great time Barb. Thanks for your recommendations/help. We got to do everything we wanted, walked probably 100 miles or more and had the absolute time of our lives. Six days was not enough. In fact, I thought about just staying in Spain. Seriously!


Nice to hear :) I hope you'll post some pics from your stay in Barcelona on your blog?
If a nor'easter forms, it certainly looks as if it would swing out east away from shore. Go with the flow.

GFS for next Tues...................
GFS for Monday has it offshore.............
Flash Flood in FL on Wednesday, 25 September, 2013 at 03:20 (03:20 AM) UTC.
Description
Rain flooded roads and closed some completely in Hernando County Tuesday. Watery Carr Creek Drive was a bit difficult for cars, but trucks could make it through. People who live down the private road say they just have to wait it out. "Basically, evaporation is the solution," said one homeowner. In the Camper's Holiday park, not many residents were in a holiday mood.
Quoting 669. LargoFl:
local met on tv said that wind and heavy rain that went over me was a weak meso low and it has dropped 3-5 inches of rain on my area and its still raining


Heavy rain coming down here in Madeira Beach, too. My 2 day total yesterday was 2.90" (which I didn't dump out yet) and this morning it is at about 4.40. Our road is a tiny one-way cross street and it is not flooded but the road that runs down to the bay is flooded. It will drain it is just not able to keep up with the rate of rain this morning. Really thankful for our little pump that has been running all morning on our back patio.
Explosion in TX on Wednesday, 25 September, 2013 at 03:37 (03:37 AM) UTC.
Description
Six oil rig workers were injured in an explosion near Falls City. The explosion happened Tuesday morning at an oil rig County Road 211 in Karnes County. The workers suffered injuries from the explosion and were burned by scalding hot water. Three of the victims suffered 2nd and 3rd degree burns. Three helicopters were sent to the scene to transport the injured workers to San Antonio hospitals. They are expected to survive.


There was also a train wreck in IL that landed some cars full of corn syrup into a river, causing a fish kill.
Hurricane season is done.
This goes to show just how terrible the Euro model has been this year. 2013 has been the worst for the Euro.
Quoting 685. icmoore:


Heavy rain coming down here in Madeira Beach, too. My 2 day total yesterday was 2.90" (which I didn't dump out yet) and this morning it is at about 4.40. Our road is a tiny one-way cross street and it is not flooded but the road that runs down to the bay is flooded. It will drain it is just not able to keep up with the rate of rain this morning. Really thankful for our little pump that has been running all morning on our back patio.
Good morning IC..yeah this is our worst day,local met said we may get a break in the afternoon for awhile..stay safe there.
Good morning from NW Florida! Well I think we'll finally get to dry out some, looks like most of the rain has moved off to our East. The last two nights have been very wet once he Sun went down. Picked up 2 inches both nights for a 4" total over a 2 day period. We welcome a few dry and cooler days now!
Flash Flood in India on Wednesday, 25 September, 2013 at 08:35 (08:35 AM) UTC.
Description
Incessant rains in Gujarat subsided on Wednesday bringing some much-needed relief to the people of the state. People ventured out on the roads and traffic resumed as water receded from roads and residential areas. Over 40,000 persons have been evacuated and shifted in the state where inundating rains paralysed normal life since the last two days. Heavy rains have been lashing districts of south Gujarat since September 21 with water from overflowing rivers entering residential areas in cities like Ahmedabad, Surat, Bharuch and Vadodara. The Ahmedabad Fire Department had sent three rescue teams to Vadodara and Bharuch to assist in rescue operations. Schools and colleges in Ahmedabad, Surat and Bharuch have been asked to remain shut and the exams scheduled for Wednesday have been postponed. The torrential rains have also affected railway operations. Five trains have been cancelled since morning between Ahmedabad and Mumbai as railway tracks lie water-logged. Vadodara Collector Vinod Rao along with the district officials carried out midnight rescue operation in Vadodara city to evacuate people from the low lying areas. The MET department have given an alert till Wednesday evening forecasting heavy to very heavy rains in Gujarat. Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is not in the state as he is out campaigning for 2014 Lok Sabha polls. He is to address a rally in Bhopal on Wednesday.
Quoting 685. icmoore:


Heavy rain coming down here in Madeira Beach, too. My 2 day total yesterday was 2.90" (which I didn't dump out yet) and this morning it is at about 4.40. Our road is a tiny one-way cross street and it is not flooded but the road that runs down to the bay is flooded. It will drain it is just not able to keep up with the rate of rain this morning. Really thankful for our little pump that has been running all morning on our back patio.


We just keep getting light to moderate rains here in Orlando however there were some severe storms north of Orlando yesterday afternoon and that maybe the case today as well once the sun comes out.
Quoting 668. SunnyDaysFla:
LakeOkeechobee--15.9ft


Lots of water from C FL draining down the Kissimmee River into Lake O.
Drought brings forth all sorts of problems..


Environment Pollution in China on Wednesday, 25 September, 2013 at 10:01 (10:01 AM) UTC.
Description
Eight farmers have been diagnosed with arsenic poisoning and 68 others showed symptoms in southwest China's Guizhou Province after drinking water from an abandoned mine during a summer drought. None of the sickened people are in critical conditions, doctors said. Local officials said they noticed late last week that many farmers in the Wangjiazhai village showed signs of swollen eyelids, headache and weakness and suspected that their drink water might have been polluted. The Sandu county county sent health, disease control and environmental experts to the village to investigate. Water and urine samples were also sent to the provincial disease control center in Guiyang for examination. Arsenic poisoning was confirmed on Tuesday. It was found out that during the summer drought, the village pumped water from an abandoned mine to its water tower twice to ease water shortage. The provincial government has set up an emergency center to deal with the matter. Doctors are going door to door to conduct health examination for farmers who had drunk the water. Free treatment is offered to all patients. A fire engine is now supplying drink water to the farmers. Pipes are being laid to supply water to the village from a nearby water plant, the work is to be done Friday night.
Well I certainly understand the flood watches from Orlando west, but to have them over here on the east coast from Melbourne up to Jax is a bit lame, IMO. Climotologically speaking the showers and storms will just about always fire over the eastern Gulf in the early morning hours then soak the west coast and will fizzle out by the time they get east of Orlando -- unless in the rare case where you have a very strong peice of energy coming acorss. So we usually end up with light rain and/or clouds over here. In addition, with how dry and sandy the soils are over here near the Cape we could have easily taken 3-5" (plus) over 2-3 days and not have any significant flood risk considering how dry this summer has been over here. WIth that said, I am thankfull that I've gotten just over 1.5" since last week which has greened up a few weeds, but I don't see any local flooding yet ;)
Quoting 692. StormTrackerScott:


We just keep getting light to moderate rains here in Orlando however there were some severe storms north of Orlando yesterday afternoon and that maybe the case today as well once the sun comes out.


It sounds like we have done a weather switch, a temporary weather switch :) We are usually light to mod here and you guys are getting ripped up with heavy rain. This is the most we have had in a long time.
Quoting 653. GatorWX:
Morning Everyone!

Got back from Espana last night. Perfect weather, excellent trip. Had way too much fun. Time of my life!

Apparently it's rained for 2.5 days straight through and counting here in swFL.



Yes Spain is very beautiful! My beautiful wife of 22 years is from Madrid Spain. I met her while stationed there in the Air Force. All of Spain is amazing. Saw the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona and have taken a Mediterranean Cruise out of Barcelona!
from fox news.........Sarasota County suffered through a real soak on Tuesday, with some portions of the county seeing six inches of rainfall.

The Azure Road neighborhood in South Venice flooded with stormwater, leaving some residents stranded inside their homes.

"I waded out there earlier to get the mail today. It's about eight inches deep now," resident Neal Card said Tuesday.

Homeowners weren't the only ones sweating out the storm. The City of Sarasota's Utilities Department worked around the clock to help relieve its overwhelmed wastewater system.

Normally, the city's wastewater treatment plant handles about five million gallons of wastewater per day.

On Tuesday, crews saw nearly six times that amount, with nearly 30 million gallons of water flushing through their system. Three-thousand gallon tanker trucks were deployed to points around the city to help pump out excess water from stressed pipes.

"They're really at their max, they're at about all they can handle right now," Sarasota Utilities Director Mitt Tidwell said Tuesday.

The flooding meant life of death for one neighborhood dog. Bonnie Henderson says she heard a dog crying overnight. When she woke up and still heard the noise, she went outside to find the dog stuck underneath her backyard deck.

Stormwater was inching close to the top of the hole where the dog was stuck inside. Firefighters from the Englewood Fire Department helped rescue the dog, just in time.

"They were sticking a shovel in as far as the shovel will go. And finally they saw little green eyes peering back," Henderson said.

The dog was fine and was returned to its owners today.

Sarasota Utilities crews are on call throughout Tuesday night to continue to pump wastewater overflow areas.


Quoting 695. sabres:
Well I certainly understand the flood watches from Orlando west, but to have them over here on the east coast from Melbourne up to Jax is a bit lame, IMO. Climotologically speaking the showers and storms will just about always fire over the eastern Gulf in the early morning hours then soak the west coast and will fizzle out by the time they get over to Orlando and points east. Unless in the rare case where you have a very strong peice of energy coming acorss. So we usually end up with light rain and/or clouds over here. In addition, with how dry and sandy the soils are over here near the Cape we could have easily taken 3-5" (plus) over 2-3 days and not have any significant flood risk considering how dry this summer has been over here. WIth that said, I am thankfull that I've gotten just over 1.5" since last week which has greened up a few weeds, but I don't see any local flooding yet ;)



In Contrary it has been a very wet summer here in Orlando 39" of rain officially at OIA since April. Now that's a lot of rain.
Quoting 695. sabres:
Well I certainly understand the flood watches from Orlando west, but to have them over here on the east coast from Melbourne up to Jax is a bit lame, IMO. Climotologically speaking the showers and storms will just about always fire over the eastern Gulf in the early morning hours then soak the west coast and will fizzle out by the time they get east of Orlando -- unless in the rare case where you have a very strong peice of energy coming acorss. So we usually end up with light rain and/or clouds over here. In addition, with how dry and sandy the soils are over here near the Cape we could have easily taken 3-5" (plus) over 2-3 days and not have any significant flood risk considering how dry this summer has been over here. WIth that said, I am thankfull that I've gotten just over 1.5" since last week which has greened up a few weeds, but I don't see any local flooding yet ;)


Hang in there as this batch seems to heading for the coast intact.

another heavy batch about to come onshore.......
Quoting 655. LargoFl:
NAM.. SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT NEXT 24 HOURS......


No one has really mentioned it on here but the reason some for the models are showing a risk for severe weather later today across N & C FL is due to the fact the EX 95L is expect to cross N FL this evening so that combined with a dip in the jet moving and provide some rough weather later if the sun can come out.
the front itself is supposed to sink way down to miami isnt it?..maybe this rain will go down there as well later in the week..we really need to dry out here.
Quoting 703. StormTrackerScott:


No one has really mentioned it on here but the reason some for the models are showing a risk for severe weather later today across N & C FL is due to the fact the EX 95L is expect to cross N FL this evening so that combined with a dip in the jet moving and provide some rough weather later if the sun can come out.
scott you folks had a tornado warning yesterday huh..
Quoting 706. LargoFl:
scott you folks had a tornado warning yesterday huh..


Yeah it was north of me up by Ocala
Quoting 707. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah it was north of me up by Ocala
yeah we had waterspout warnings yesterday.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH A
PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME CELLS...ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE EXCESS RAIN WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND ONE INCH AND LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES IN SPOTS...WHICH
COULD AGGRAVATE STANDING WATER CONCERNS IN AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN
RECENT RAINS.
ok so we can start to dry out friday when it goes to miami...
I've received almost 6" in the past two days in NW Hillsborough Co. The slab of my house is only about half an inch above the water -_-

The big question that I have is will there be another area of rain form after this current complex moves past????
Quoting 711. FLWeatherFreak91:
I've received almost 6" in the past two days in NW Hillsborough Co. The slab of my house is only about half an inch above the water -_-

The big question that I have is will there be another area of rain form after this current complex moves past????
well today is the worst day alright..more out in the gulf coming in now...but there is alot of dry air behind that huge blob..hopefully it will stop raining..
Yes It is raining hard in Fl. including my house! Is the Tropical season over? Never really got going and GM, and WC don't look good for formation. Season POOF?
only a 40% chance tomorrow..7-day for tampa bay area.
Quoting 713. LargoFl:
well today is the worst day alright..more out in the gulf coming in now...but there is alot of dry air behind that huge blob..hopefully it will stop raining..
Well obviously the rain that is already out there has to make it by, but I'm wondering if the front that is just now passing over Tally is going to spark more convection after this group of showers clears... that would be the end of the house.
Quoting 653. GatorWX:
Morning Everyone!

Got back from Espana last night. Perfect weather, excellent trip. Had way too much fun. Time of my life!

Apparently it's rained for 2.5 days straight through and counting here in swFL.



Welcome home! I am at 4 3/4 inches of rain since this one began.
GFS moved the nor'easter from 153 hours to 141 hours out, and it is the same strength as before.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Well, for what I see, the Caribean and the GOMEX can kiss the 2013 hurricane season goodbye.Good ridance Hurricane season. Welcome Fall.

Quoting 647. Tazmanian:



nop not at all this is the time of year where i watch the storm in the W PAC Typhoon Freda be came a strong Columbus Day Storm of 1962

Link



so this time of year i watch the W pac too see if CA can get a good wetting rains from a lift overe Typhoon or a strong wind storm


Thanks, Taz
Quoting 711. FLWeatherFreak91:
I've received almost 6" in the past two days in NW Hillsborough Co. The slab of my house is only about half an inch above the water -_-

The big question that I have is will there be another area of rain form after this current complex moves past????




Well the line of thunderstorms approaching Tallahassee fell apart last night and we ended up only getting about 0.25 from stratiform rains, total since the weekend has been less than an inch, a lot less than I was expecting/hoping, oh well...

Although I got word from back home in Clearwater FL that my home rain gauge is near 6 inches of rain as of this morning since Monday which is pretty much right on target from the forecast expectations.

This puts my area back home to above 10 inches of rain for the month for 4 straight months. The monthly total should be near 11 to 12 inches for September after the last few days rains added.


The east side of the state ended up not getting nearly as much rain as forecast compared to west side of the state yet again.

This has happened throughout the summer, one of the weird aspects of meteorology that is hard to understand/explain.

All I know is that the convection evolved into a back-building MCS, cutting off the eastern half of the state from lift and convergence. As to why, not sure.
Quoting 323. PalmBeachWeather:
I hope you are right...But much , much too early to say that...(I have Wilma on my mind)
yep.. Wilma stalled over the Yucatan for 24 hours and weakened. If that had not happened, things could have been much worse than they already were....Terrible for them, not as terrible for Florida.
ok weve been under a flood watch for the past 4 days here in east central florida. monday 60% chance of rain... yesterday 90% chance of rain... today 100% chance of rain and the sun has been out all day.... so far since sunday we have recieved .74 inches of rain... i gues we are not getting the 4 to 8 inches predicted.... that doesnt surprise us here... tey usually are wrong and over hyped
Quoting 716. LargoFl:
only a 40% chance tomorrow..7-day for tampa bay area.
its been sunny all day here in east central florida with a flood watch in effect lol
In response to your global warming piece this weekend, I agree with your criticism of people looking within too short a time frame when analyzing global warming. But I believe you are doing the same. Geologists are not in agreement with how many ice ages we have had in the history of planet earth, but at least it is more than one. Serious global warming precedes each ice age event, and follows each ice age event. Volcanoes and sun spots attributed to the last cycles, without human interaction, and I believe are more important than present human contributions to the cycle. NASA tried to make this point, and even some predicted catastrophic cooling in the next ten years, which was not received well in Washington, as it bucked the current trend. Either way, the cycle continues, global warming will cause melting of the poles,later increased precipitation and expansion of the poles, into the spread of ice,the reestablishment of an ice age, later the retreat of ice, the struggle for life to go on, to the proliferation of life, to the final increase of CO2, etc., etc., etc., though not in our lifetime of course. And so it goes on. To politicize these events for ones own agenda or gain, like Al Gore did, is also a lie. Taking care of the garden is always a good thing, but when Washington is involved,I fear the unintended consequences of our zeal will not be good. For individuals or the planet. But at least we feel good for our part. Buying a slightly more efficient automobile, for instance. I'm not the problem, my car gets 35 mpg. Right.