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Disturbance near Panama a threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2008

An area of disturbed weather, associated with the tail end of a stalled-out cold front, has developed in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This disturbance has a strong potential to develop into a tropical storm by late this week. This morning's QuikSCAT pass revealed an elongated circulation center near 11N 77W, about 300 miles northeast of the Panama Canal. Wind shear is a moderate 10-20 knots over the disturbance, and visible satellite images show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage and intensity across most of the south-central Caribbean.


Figure 1. Current visible satellite image of the Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10-20 knots, over the southern Caribbean during the remainder of the week. Most of the models support additional development of this disturbance, though none of them show anything stronger than a weak tropical storm developing this week. Steering currents are weak, but a slow west-northwest to northwest motion is likely beginning on Tuesday, when an intensifying extratropical storm off the east coast of Florida should impart northwesterly steering currents over the southern Caribbean. I give a high (>50% chance) that this disturbance will develop into Tropical Storm Paloma this week, and a 40% chance that it will eventually become a hurricane. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras appear most at risk of heavy rains from the disturbance, although Panama and Costa Rica may also begin receiving heavy rains on Monday. The ECMWF model predicts that the disturbance will move over Jamaica on Friday, and it certainly possible that the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti may receive heavy rains from this storm by the end of the week. It is unlikely that the disturbance will affect the U.S. this week.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

are you saying highly unlikely to impact the u.s. period or just this week?
GOM IR Loop with Disturbance below..Link
Ty for the report
Thanks Jeff
its begining to look better on visible.
Hurricane center has given sw carib a yellow circle
Keep an eye on 12N/78W.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE AREA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH
Hopefully windshear won't drop from that 10-20 kt range. That will allow development to be very slow.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Caribbean
Quoting Vortex95:
Hopefully windshear won't drop from that 10-20 kt range. That will allow development to be very slow.


Hopefully it'll crash into land so development wont happen at all.
There we go, we're on yellow.

Thanks Doc.
Ike, go and look at this.. remind you of anyone??
It looks like we'll have Paloma this coming week. We might have 93L today.
Orca,,,,you're pretty perceptive for an old guy...nice call...
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ike, go and look at this.. remind you of anyone??


Should tropicalamanda pop in my head?
18. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ike, go and look at this.. remind you of anyone??


Yeah it does.
Quoting IKE:


Yeah it does.


Thats what I thought also
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Should tropicalamanda pop in my head?


I had that same inclination.
i have no idea...

Quoting presslord:
Orca,,,,you're pretty perceptive for an old guy...nice call...


Kettle... Pot... Black.. all those terms can be used in my response :)
Off-topic, but...

Halfway through at Interlagos, Massa leads but Hamilton in 4th. If it holds, we have a F1 World Champion...

(Hey, we got smacked in the Cricket (of which I care about) and Rugby League (which I really don't) - gotta find some cheer today!)
the pic or the writing style?
Quoting Vortex95:
i have no idea...



ROFLMAO, I apologize now.. but have to say it....

And the new thing would be....
Quoting Vortex95:
the pic or the writing style?


Both
Let me understand this if the extra tropical storm forms it will pull the disturbacne to the NE or ENE?
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, I apologize now.. but have to say it....

And the new thing would be....

HaHaHA.
well he called it 3 days earliar anyhow a major I dunno about that.
Quoting Vortex95:
Let me understand this if the extra tropical storm forms it will pull the disturbacne to the NE or ENE?


From what doc M said more like nw. I'd personally say n or ne if it's not alreay on land. The broad center of the tropical disturbance appears to be moving slowly wsw.
Quoting Vortex95:
Let me understand this if the extra tropical storm forms it will pull the disturbacne to the NE or ENE?


I'd imagine so. There's a high building behind the front in the Atlantic, which would really block any movement N, but an EXT system may provide a weakness for it to move into.

That's just off the top of my head of what usually happens. :P
...I wonder if we'll hear from all the folks who've declared the season over....
Quoting presslord:
...I wonder if we'll hear from all the folks who've declared the season over....



Season is not over yet but it will probably take a day or two before something like that can materialize. Usually start out slow and then....
33 & 34:

Methinks they're all busy getting their crow recipes prepped. :)
Most of the computer models show development in the Caribbean.
Quoting Cotillion:


I had that same inclination.
I don't know but voortex pops in my mind....
Good afternoon all.
And especially to my good friend Cotillion. heheheheheheh
Quoting pottery:
Good afternoon all.
And especially to my good friend Cotillion. heheheheheheh


Go on, you've caught me before I head off out. Have your fun. :P

LOL Cot, its all good man. Have a great one. Good luck to Hamilton.
Maybe Amanda has a twin they say everybody has one.
Quoting pottery:
LOL Cot, its all good man. Have a great one. Good luck to Hamilton.


Aye, and have a great one yourself. How's the weather done there?

(Though, if I had to choose, I'd pick a Ravens victory over a Hamilton championship win. Supposed to be low scoring: Already 10-7.)
Ike, about three years ago all of us in south florida saw something developing down there. Now that was a late season storm, not much has been heard from in the way of the tropics. Pretty much dormant up until now, what are the SST's and the TCHP running in the Yucatan Channel and areas around there?
46. IKE
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Ike, about three years ago all of us in south florida saw something developing down there. Now that was a late season storm, not much has been heard from in the way of the tropics. Pretty much dormant up until now, what are the SST's and the TCHP running in the Yucatan Channel and areas around there?


Link
Hello all..with the extratropical storm off the east coast of fla, possible paloma should stay south, correct?
Nice here, Cot. Blue sky, gentle breezes, cold beer, good lunch. What can I say ? My daughter in Stevenage is sounding cold and dank. What about you ?
Quoting pottery:
Nice here, Cot. Blue sky, gentle breezes, cold beer, good lunch. What can I say ? My daughter in Stevenage is sounding cold and dank. What about you ?


Mmm, sounds good. Here, it's dark and cold, but I don't think it's raining. Which is nice. Looking forward to the week ahead, should be fun.
Unbelievable!

Rain right at the death causes a frantic pit stop for every driver. Hamilton struggles, and loses the 5th place he needs with just 2 laps to go. Massa wins it, and for a moment, he'd be World Champion.. but then Hamilton re-takes 5th on the final part of the final lap.

Incredible.
Well you won't hear from the people saying the season was over yet, so you'll have to settle with me. xD

Though we might want to have some crow ready for them in case that area near Panama develops, though if we count the East Pacific in this I'd feel a lot more confident due to 95E.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAIN FEATURE IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. A 1010 MB SFC LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 SURFACE MAP
NEAR 11N79.5W. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE SLIGHTLY FALLING IN THIS
AREA AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN IN THE WIND FIELD FROM
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 75W-83W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N65W AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING TO
INDUCE ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS IS A
FAVORED REGION FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. MUCH OF THE COMPUTER MODELS LIKE THIS AREA OF LOW PRES AND
SUGGEST THAT A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS IT DRIFTS NW THROUGH
FRI.
OH MAN !! That was incredible.
All Hail Lewis Hamilton. What a cooool head he has. Great race......
Well done Cotillion...
Quoting pottery:
OH MAN !! That was incredible.
All Hail Lewis Hamilton. What a cooool head he has. Great race......
Well done Cotillion...


GranPrix... Crickett... and poor Beer.. what more could a guy ask for on the weekend.

I think I would rather mow the lawn while its wet.
Quoting pottery:
OH MAN !! That was incredible.
All Hail Lewis Hamilton. What a cooool head he has. Great race......
Well done Cotillion...


Well, well done to him. Very plucky victory at the end, though. Feel sorry for Massa on the flip side, having that title snatched away from him at the death.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ike, go and look at this.. remind you of anyone??


Does anyone know who that avatar is a picture of?
From the Good Doc's Post:

Steering currents are weak, but a slow west-northwest to northwest motion is likely beginning on Tuesday, when an intensifying extratropical storm off the east coast of Florida should impart northwesterly steering currents over the southern Caribbean

What am I missing here? NW?
Quoting beell:
From the Good Doc's Post:

Steering currents are weak, but a slow west-northwest to northwest motion is likely beginning on Tuesday, when an intensifying extratropical storm off the east coast of Florida should impart northwesterly steering currents over the southern Caribbean

What am I missing here? NW?


That is a typo, he meant northeasterly.
Thought so STL. I screw up my directions all the time when I post. Don't recall ever seeing Doc M do the same.

Thanks
Not much going on here I see. Had a good time in the PR waters, pulling up anchors and hanging the bimini and main sail, season's acoming!
I don't think it's a typo...

I think it is vs. W or WSW motion... NE "pull" of what otherwise might be the case.
To be clear, maybe NE later in the week...
Quoting Seastep:
To be clear, maybe NE later in the week...


That, fwiw, I would agree to.
Quoting beell:


That, fwiw, I would agree to.


Keep in mind he qualified it w/ Tue.
Quoting Orcasystems:


GranPrix... Crickett... and poor Beer.. what more could a guy ask for on the weekend.

I think I would rather mow the lawn while its wet.
try it with an electric lawnmower.

It still appears to be a typo SS no matter how you time it...
Fair enough beell, but hard to believe both WNW and NW were typos.

Also, fits. It will arc like storms tend do this time of year. WNW-NW-N-NE-ENE.
A storm moving NE is under the influence of
*fill in the blank* steering currents?

No argument with the initial WNW/NW movement
Sorry, need to clarify again...

No question influence is to pull it faster in that direction...
something appears to be pulling what might be called a center to the north. Looking at RGB loops, that is what appears to be happening. Other than that what is this mention of an extra tropical system off Florida?
Quoting beell:
A storm moving NE is under the influence of
*fill in the blank* steering currents?


Doc didn't say "steering direction"

He commented on the motion of the disturbance, not the steering affect.
extratropical storm off the east coast of Florida should impart northwesterly steering currents over the southern Caribbean

Quoting beell:
A storm moving NE is under the influence of
*fill in the blank* steering currents?


LOL, least we found something weather related to discuss
Sorry... crawls under desk...

Got it now (didn't see the bold). Yes, I would say that is a typo. ;)
don't think we have anything in the GOM to worry about for a while. As for this back door cold front as some forecasters called it down here, is that what in turn created an environment for our sub or extra tropical system?
Too funny Seastep! I was starting to doubt my semi-dsylexic self!

Dsylexics Untie!!
Cotillion, you there ??
Final score in Australia, 52-4 ! Whats happening ??
Get the Queen on the phone, give her a talking-to.
LOL
Quoting pottery:
Cotillion, you there ??
Final score in Australia, 52-4 ! Whats happening ??
Get the Queen on the phone, give her a talking-to.
LOL


My excuse is they deserve a walloping for inventing such a poor sport.

I'd rather phone Harbaugh to ask him why he threw away a 10-0 lead and cannot defend the deep pass to save their lives. -sigh-.

Oh, and why they keep giving the ball to one of the best special teams players in the league.

I'll miss the end anyhow. At least one person got it right today!
This too shall pass, Cot.
A mere pothole in the highway of life. Etc.
Right. Thats my Lesson for the day.
74.
In advance of the next CONUS cold front, a warm front/trough forms near/off the SE coast with a cut-off upper low drifting to the NE across FL into the ATL which is supposed to deepen/form a surface low.
Just an interesting sat obs, what I believe to be the former 92L... little "circle" around 15N/56W:

Link
Quoting pottery:
This too shall pass, Cot.
A mere pothole in the highway of life. Etc.
Right. Thats my Lesson for the day.


Hah, a very serious response to a sport rant. ;)

Link

Sitting in a nice area of moisture, dry air shouldn't be a factor. Shear's only slightly favourable at best, and land interaction might be an issue to cyclogenesis.
Hey I thought the season was over? Lol.
Anyone see how weird 95E looks?

75 - beell

"Dsylexics Untie"

that Now funny is!

LOL
82- Wow, 95E looks a lot more organized from even a couple hours ago. The season still lives on, lol.
"Untie". LOL
Missed it first time. Just goes to show something or the other...
Looks like a proper storm to me, Skye.
Visible of sw carib. spinning up look for code orange at 5pm.
Testing blog freeze up
Quoting presslord:
...I wonder if we'll hear from all the folks who've declared the season over....

Hey.. you talking 'bout me????
Just dropping in for a few,

Carrib system...Don't really see a monster coming out of this. CMC, GFS, ECMWF in better agreement than usual on track...If development occurs I see a week tropical system crossing cuba headed for central atlantic where will maybe become a pretty good sub/extra-tropical.

THCP in carrib. still suports development though not nearly the heat that was there a month ago, and that goes away once system crosses Cuba. I agree that shear is also going to be a limiting factor. All other conditions pos. for development. Doesn't seem to have much choice for track with a front dropping down end of next week.
surfers talking Carib will be going off....

Here SWFL/Gomex -- Gulf is at 68 - it's wetsuit time now till spring I guess. Gulf presently flat, late Monday/Tuesday 1ft N windswell - MAYBE LONGBOARD, no juice till Saturday - chance for the coldfront --could be interesting with a shoot of low pressure accompanying it..still too soon, fingers crossed--
wow, and she still has the energy to type...amazing!

Hey Sharkbai...er, surfmom!
Quoting surfmom:

Hey.. you talking 'bout me????


Don't remember you saying any such thing. If so, it has been subtle, which is exempt from requisite crow eating.
95E has a monocle. (Monocle, n. A mirage or illusion depicting an eye-like feature, but on closer analysis it really isn't an eye.)
I think I quietly wumailed that to Orca... wasn't going public.....

Got my miles in today -- 15; spirit wanted 20, brains and bones said 15.
Quoting Cotillion:
95E has a monocle. (Monocle, n. A mirage or illusion depicting an eye-like feature, but on closer analysis it really isn't an eye.)


Pre-Gustav right before upgrade to TD status had an upper level Eye feature. Helped it rapidly intensify too.
you know if I could change my handle LOL shark bai-- would be funny

It was fascinating watching that shark swim by me in real-time gave new understanding and meaning to the word LURK.... they move so differently and the "feeling" is so very different then dolphins
Really did want to go for an hour paddle... but....the water's is cold and the sun was not really out 100% --saving the "core" fuel for that possible Tuesday AM....puny as it may be
the "feeling" is so very different then dolphins

um, yeah! Would agree with that about 200%
Not a surfer, but from diving...yeah, totally different set of emotions involved.
Thanks Storm.

Wonder if we'll get our first TS on Election day since Nixon got re-elected...
Cot, you may get persuaded to leave your cold island for a sunnier, warmer one after a winter of reading about how blue our skies are.......
Thx Storm - taping the keys on sunday! ....wonder what's up. hmmm
Quoting surfmom:
Cot, you may get persuaded to leave your cold island for a sunnier, warmer one after a winter of reading about how blue our skies are.......


Haha. That assumes that I'm not already persuaded by all that warm weather...

Not Orlando though. Been there and done that. (Like a true tourist!)
Quoting StormW:
101. Cotillion 3:37 PM EST on November 02, 2008
Thanks Storm.

Wonder if we'll get our first TS on Election day since Nixon got re-elected...


Now that would be something.


In fact, that was a STS. But same thing.

(1956 (& Eisenhower's 2nd term) for a TS; but then again, might've already been a hurricane at that point...)
so you felt a "different vibe" too Rob. -- I find the 'cuda have the same lurk,sneak,creepy feeling. I can close my eyes and really pull up that moment still....big impression-photo in my mind. I've been in with lots of tarpon and that felt magical and all good....

least I can see from here that coldfront is still on the agenda....
Belly is full and brain screaming "sleep"

Naptime, will be in this evening.
I have a name for Orlando.... and it's not nice... next trip to the sandbar, Cot., -- clue us "Locals" in... we'll set you up in the right places,beaches etc.

We even have the "Kings Sport" Polo in my paradise

Rob, you ever check the game out in Ocala? - The Villages?
I'm out for a while as well....will be back in later
A dolphin will scan you and go, hey, a human, they like to play, lets go say hello!!
A shark will scan you and go, edible or non edible?
Wonder what the "experts" or so called "experts" think/say where this blob of convection is going to end up if/when it ever does get going.
109. surfmom

My foggy mind is assuming that by game you mean polo since ocala is horse country.

Honestly can't remember right now the last time I was in Ocala that I wasn't wizzing by at hurricane speed.

Drop me a mail.

later
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E now in the East Pacific, winds at 30 knots.
Quoting surfmom:
I have a name for Orlando.... and it's not nice... next trip to the sandbar, Cot., -- clue us "Locals" in... we'll set you up in the right places,beaches etc.

We even have the "Kings Sport" Polo in my paradise

Rob, you ever check the game out in Ocala? - The Villages?


Be sure to do so, though, Polo isn't my thing. I'm a republican... (Small 'r', not the American version.)

See you Rob and Surfmom. (Or is it Nemo, now?)

I also need to get outta here. Probably be scarce in the next couple o' weeks, but if Paloma or whatever arises, I'll poke my nose in.

Ciao~
95E: (Far Left)

Quoting RTLSNK:
A dolphin will scan you and go, hey, a human, they like to play, lets go say hello!!
A shark will scan you and go, edible or non edible?


described perfectly - I've bee fortunate to have played w/dolphins a few time in my life -- Hurricane Dolly was the last magical interaction I had- just riding waves with them.

I found this shark experience a real eye opener... sobering... yet there were many other surfers out there and no one was bit
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 022053
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008
100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2008

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...

AT 100 PM PST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST OR ABOUT
990 MILES...1590 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 100 PM PST POSITION...8.6 N...109.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
700 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 022055
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008
100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2008

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS. SOME WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE FORMED IN THE CENTRAL REGION
OF THE SYSTEM...AND THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
WARRANTS ITS DESIGNATION AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS
STILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ BUT THERE IS
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA AND WATER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 28 DEG C FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
SHIPS AND THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. BY DAYS 4-5...THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKENING
BY THAT TIME.
Out for awhile. BBL
Quoting Cotillion:


Be sure to do so, though, Polo isn't my thing. I'm a republican... (Small 'r', not the American version.)

See you Rob and Surfmom. (Or is it Nemo, now?)

I also need to get outta here. Probably be scarce in the next couple o' weeks, but if Paloma or whatever arises, I'll poke my nose in.

Ciao~


I thought you were talking about what TD18-E would be called if it were named. oops. It could be called Polo.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Caribbean
For those of you who haven't seen it, my blog is completely updated with the results of the contest, and every storm entered has a track up and my justification for those numbers are there, also.

Link
Marco
Quoting Tazmanian:
Marco


That would have been awesome if Marco formed in the Atl, the Polo formed in the EPac.
Storm, just when things were starting to calm down in here.
good stuff hurristat.

Thanks to you and all participants!
seastep, whats the read on our low disturbance in the Carib?
So the next EPAC name is Polo
And we had Marco earlier. Whoa.
126. hurristat 1:18 PM PST on November 02, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
Marco


That would have been awesome if Marco formed in the Atl, the Polo formed in the EPac


yes that would have been so cool
Caribbean disturbance is looking good. It'll probably become an invest soon in we might see Paloma by wednesday.
plywood -

Really not much different than I think we all see.

Seems to be developing faster than "slow development may occur."

Really don't see shear being too inhibiting.

As for track, I'm a "has to form to know" guy but, as I said, models that have latched onto it seem reasonable.
Quoting Seastep:
plywood -

Really not much different than I think we all see.

Seems to be developing faster than "slow development may occur."

Really don't see shear being too inhibiting.

As for track, I'm a "has to form to know" guy but, as I said, models that have latched onto it seem reasonable.


Future 93l is locking good at this time, I already see a NE component movement in the track, seems to be a thread right now to Jamica, eartern Cuba and Haiti, but is too early to call lets wait for all the models runs when we have officialy invest 93L latter tonight or early tomorow morning.
Quoting Seastep:
good stuff hurristat.

Thanks to you and all participants!


Thanks a bunch... it took forever to write that blog. Want to know why I wasn't on here much yesterday?? Take a guess. I also want to thank all those who entered storms into the contest. Even if you finished in last place, your entry was worth something. I was surprised how many people ended up responding to my query. Thank you so much.

I'm gonna run for a bit. BBL.
woah!!! hello all--i leave for a couple of days & what do ya know, the weather still goes on!!! lol, so where is this new storm going ultimately?? any guesses yet- i see doc says not for a US hit THIS week....somebody tell me more!!! hope everyone is well!!!
thanks,
Heather
Hurristat. Congratulations. A very impressive project there. Good presentation too. Nice one.
Thanks Hurr for the fun contest although I didn't come close to winning it was still fun. Thanks again!
Looks like somebody squeegee'd the tropical atlantic. Getting dry out there. ( the atmosphere, not the sea, LOL)
I was going to say Pottery that you'd have to have one hell of a large squeegee xD
Quoting pottery:
Looks like somebody squeegee'd the tropical atlantic. Getting dry out there. ( the atmosphere, not the sea, LOL)


Yeah, rub it in. ;)

Absolutely beautiful day here, though, and evening is even better.

A toast to no more moisture.
tropical, that is...
pottery, kick ass on the 20/20 win,
Caribbean disturbance now under orange alert.
The system currently developing in the sw carribean will head NNE and i believe intensify into a cat 2 hurricane although briefly as it approaches Hispaniola. It will then begin to be sheared apart by westerlies and the system will accelerate passing near Bermuda as a low level circulation but devoid of any convection, however this system will have an affect on the coastal hybrid storm that develops tom night off the northern fl coast as that system will be able to tap into whats left of the storm as it very slowly drifts nothward giving gales from the outer banks to the cape may region.
cotillion, want a bit of roo with your tea (supper,dinner) and a fosters to wash it down LOL (ROFLMFAO) bygones
So is this Caribbean disturbance going to be a hurricane or a tropical storm? (comes from a newbie)
Interesting day. Hi all. I note two Brazilians won today, in the Formula 1 race and in the NY Marathon. Also congrats to the Brits for Hamilton's Grand Prix win.

All that, and two more potential storms as well! I had a feeling we'd see at least 1 November storm. Doc M's comments don't rule out a US effect in the long run, though if it runs over Cuba I doubt we'd see much of a westward turn after that . . .
Hi!

anybody home...?
...nobody but us chickens

Edit: realized after entering this, many folks here won't recognize this 3 stooges line.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Hi!

anybody home...?
hi rob, just gave cotillion a slight ribbing, don't mess with an aussie in the states and her beer choice mate,LOL
Yeah, guess the poor guy didn't know better.

How's everything tonight?
PS we kick their a$$ in sports without trying LOL PSS so does everybody else, LOL
Be nice brat, they did do pretty well on the F1 circuit.
Rob, all cool, start packing tomorrow for the bush,
Brat, what side of the lake is your property, near what town?
Quoting RobDaHood:
Be nice brat, they did do pretty well on the F1 circuit.
just ribbing, getting my 1 cents in while we are winning,
Quoting RobDaHood:
Brat, what side of the lake is your property, near what town?
am on the north side of the lake about 20 miles out on 98 near bassinger, on the kissimee river, not far from sebring on the back road, 2 or 3 beers maybe
160. bwi
Quoting victoriahurricane:
So is this Caribbean disturbance going to be a hurricane or a tropical storm? (comes from a newbie)


StormW had an analysis this afternoon.

An area of disturbed weather is located in the extreme South central Caribbean. Quikscat earlier today depicted a broader LLC, however current RGB and VISIBLE satellite imagery indicate this disturbance is becoming better organized, and the LLC seems to be consolidating near 12.0N;81.0W. The current CIMSS Real Time wind shear map indicates an upper level anticyclone near this disturbance, and shear directly over the apparent LLC is about 15 kts. The 12Z run of the forecast shear maps indicates that shear may relax enough for further development, and based on this, I believe we may get our 16th Tropical Storm for the season. Computer models only indicate a weak Tropical Storm, however, until I see a change in the forecast wind shear, I give this system a chance of at least a mid grade Tropical Storm closer to the 40-45 kt range. Of course, this is subject to change as atmospheric conditions change. I will be interested to see the next run of the
forecast wind shear maps. Steering is somewhat weak, but initial motion should be near the WNW. Based on the 12Z run of the forecast steering current models, this area should continue between North of West to WNW from now until possibly late Tuesday, then begin to lift more Northerly early Wednesday, then off the the NE late Wednesday/early Thursday. I feel this system will pass, or let's say at this time, I am more partial to a little further west course, with this passing just to the west of Jamaica. Of course I'll have a better handle on steering, once and if development occurs. Again, as always, the strength of the system will determine how it is steered.

I will continue to monitor this area, and should have an update sometime tomorrow on it.
Quoting keywestbrat:
am on the north side of the lake about 20 miles out on 98 near bassinger, on the kissimee river, not far from sebring on the back road, 2 or 3 beers maybe


Okay, wow that is back of bourke! Do you have internet there?
hey rob, yea B.F Egypt, one extreme to the other, but just as much fun for me>!! Everything is on at the house, except net, but will get that sorted quick, can't live with out the net, NO tv.
I see we have Shortly to be 93L under Orange alert. I believe we could see TD 17 out of this.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I see we have Shortly to be 93L under Orange alert. I believe we could see TD 17 out of this.


Looking a tad dry tonight. Have a feeling this is gonna be another wierd one.
Quoting keywestbrat:
hey rob, yea B.F Egypt, one extreme to the other, but just as much fun for me>!! Everything is on at the house, except net, but will get that sorted quick, can't live with out the net, NO tv.


There's got to be a story in how a girl from Australia ends up in Ft. Bassinger...You'll have to tell me that one sometime. Actually I have known a couple Aussie girls over the years in this area...would be so wierd if we met and said...I know you! LOL
Quoting RobDaHood:


There's got to be a story in how a girl from Australia ends up in Ft. Bassinger...You'll have to tell me that one sometime.
yep there is a story:) isn't there always hehehe
sheesh my whole life is a story,
Quoting keywestbrat:
sheesh my whole life is a story,


LOL, take a lesson from Hemmingway, write a book, I'll buy a copy.
Thanks Bwi.
Quoting RobDaHood:


LOL, take a lesson from Hemmingway, write a book, I'll buy a copy.
living it not writing it, good concept though,
I wonder what the odds are of having marco - polo?

I also see an orange alert... ?

KeYWestBrat - what's the beer of Choice?
The hurricane blew everything to the devil, but it is still more beautiful then any place I have ever seen. E. Hemmingway

one of my favorites......how I feel about my sand bar
Good On you, KeywestBrat -- living it! you bet -- everyday. I got dings and dents.... smile -- but I'm getting all the mileage I can out of my "vehicle"
Quoting keywestbrat:
living it not writing it, good concept though,
172. surfmom

Hey Pyrate girl!

wondered if any of the "crew" would show up or if it would just be me & cap'n brat tonight.
Wow, I come back from dinner to find it upgraded to orange... After 18-E went straight from orange to Depression you never know.
Quoting surfmom:
I wonder what the odds are of having marco - polo?

I also see an orange alert... ?

KeYWestBrat - what's the beer of Choice?
australian beer.
In for a bit... keep checking on that possible North windswell. I have to coordinate getting time in the water along with work and everything else.... plus it'll be a small window....so I'm watching it... like waiting for a pot of hot water to boil..
I believe that the Fosters we now have in the states is brewed in Canada.... true?
177. Stormchaser2007

I hate those letters STNRY. So tired of playing that game this year. Convergence doesn't look as good this pm as earlier today and convection is way down. Looks like we're going to be in wait and see mode again...how many times have I said that this season...
SWFL/Gomex surfers - Gulf temp. 68 degrees, been lakeflat, late Monday/tuesday 1ft North windswell..MAYBE longboard on the incoming tide -- then no juice till Sat. The the Chance for coldfront - could be interesting with a shot of low pressure --still too soon to tell...keep watching

it is now officially wet suit time
Quoting surfmom:
I believe that the Fosters we now have in the states is brewed in Canada.... true?


ssshhh! you'll wreck her whole day LOL

agree about the watched pot never boils thing...do think you'll get your front this weekend though...patience.
All of the storms & 'canes seemed laborious...Dolly still my favorite
Quoting surfmom:
I believe that the Fosters we now have in the states is brewed in Canada.... true?
let me consult with my VP lol, it tastes the same and has 5.5per, um what was the question lol
Quoting RobDaHood:
177. Stormchaser2007

I hate those letters STNRY. So tired of playing that game this year. Convergence doesn't look as good this pm as earlier today and convection is way down. Looks like we're going to be in wait and see mode again...how many times have I said that this season...


Lol in 2 days they have it in the same spot...
185. Stormchaser2007

Feels like TD16 and it's offspring (for lack of a better word) all over again...sit and spin and keep us wondering, and causing grief for Central America...hopefully stays fairly dry but may be a little much to expect
Is MJO predicted to show-up in this disturbed area any time soon? Water temp. Must still be warm down there....it's positioned like a pin ball I want to flick into the gulf and make waves
Quoting surfmom:
Is MJO predicted to show-up in this disturbed area any time soon? Water temp. Must still be warm down there....it positioned like a pin ball I want to flick into the gulf and make waves


Im thinking the mjo pulse was 2nd half of month...TCHP is way down from a couple of weeks ago but still plenty warm enough to support development. I don't really place a bet on what, if anything happens, but the gulf should be fairly safe. If it develops it will most likely follow the next frontal boundary NE across Cuba and into the mid atlantic in the wake of the system that dr masters spoke of. Most of the guidance I've seen has supported this, so ...waiting game.
Good evening! I see we have a system brewing. My friend flew down to Belize today for the week. She was looking forward to some fishing and diving. Might be doing some "dodging" the rain!
arrrr fosters larger!!!! it's got the flavor that carries it all around the world,.... that should make a storm turn up, (not literally cant spell that) LOL
189. sugarsand

Hey, sugar,

Airmass over Belize looking pretty dry right now. Pretty good shape...
brat,

sure you're not the Fosters spokes-model?

Oh, and you have mail.
Quoting RobDaHood:
189. sugarsand

Hey, sugar,

Airmass over Belize looking pretty dry right now. Pretty good shape...

Hey Rob! Dr. M says this thing is going to move NW, then a turn towards Cuba? How far west?
Quoting keywestbrat:
arrrr fosters larger!!!! it's got the flavor that carries it all around the world,.... that should make a storm turn up, (not literally cant spell that) LOL

Fosters Larger! LOL! Those cans are larger.. Brat, you are definitely into happy hour!
Quoting RobDaHood:
brat,

sure your not the Fosters spokes-model?
It's slow, beer, sport, politics, or smile from dumb joke,
remember drinking "oil cans" of fosters on the piers of NYC in the heat of the summer -- b/4 most of the gentrification --

Love my New Castle... and Pilsners and Spaten --love beer
Quoting sugarsand:

Hey Rob! Dr. M says this thing is going to move NW, then a turn towards Cuba? How far west?


Wow, hard to say. I think not very. Depends on when/where/if a low level circulation forms. Also the timing of the next frontal boundary and development of a low in the atlantic. Right now we really just have an interesting area of low pressure and a lot of things have to happen before we can say for sure where it tracks.
Quoting surfmom:
remember drink "oil cans" of fosters on the piers of NYC in the heat of the summer -- b/4 most of the gentrification --

Love my New Castle... and Pilsners and Spaten --love beer

A cold blue moon on draft with an orange wedge.
yes..some of us are patiently waiting....
Quoting sugarsand:

A cold blue moon on draft with an orange wedge.


B I N G O !!!!

Quoting surfmom:
Is MJO predicted to show-up in this disturbed area any time soon? Water temp. Must still be warm down there....it's positioned like a pin ball I want to flick into the gulf and make waves


As a matter of fact, an area of upper-level divergence is starting to move into the Caribbean (the activity in the East Pacific would be a clue as to where it is as well, considering that the average date of the last EPAC storm is late October, so it takes more to get something going there at this time of the year than in the Atlantic):

Yall go ahead, I'll just be in charge of the rum.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Yall go ahead, I'll just be in charge of the rum.

I've been known to get into the Cap'n Morgan. :0
well i'm not counting on this disturb -- I'll be looking for some moose breath air from the north... to stir up the gulf. Surfers say the carib is poised to "take off"

horse-wise though I should just keep my mouth closed, do not need the cold, do not want the wind

MichaelSTL - thx
203. sugarsand

I'll just bet you have LOL

Okay, off topic, but you guys should get a kick out of this...Went to Publix this evening to restock on mixers and sushi supplies...Got to checkout and of course, new cashier, young thing, really nice, bleach-blonde over black hair, but totally clueless. Problem with no price on an item order ahead of mine...5 minute dilema...got her all perplexed...and what was her name?...yep, Amanda...swear I've been running into Amanda's right and left lately (LOL)
These time switches are hell on me.... got up at 5:30 am (old time) feel like it's an endless day
Quoting surfmom:
remember drinking "oil cans" of fosters on the piers of NYC in the heat of the summer -- b/4 most of the gentrification --

Love my New Castle... and Pilsners and Spaten --love beer
oil cans arent they a ripper,
#206rotfl..... cept this one was probably sweet.... the other was toxic

That's how we'd leave those piers --soo wild & ripped....glory days
209. surfmom
LOL yeah, and I hate having all those negative connotations...It's just wierd how much that name has been popping up lately...
Rob, I've caught bits and pieces of the Amanda story. Not sure what all transpired, but I take it "she" was a jewel...NOT!
Quoting surfmom:
These time switches are hell on me.... got up at 5:30 am (old time) feel like it's an endless day

You and me. I can't adjust in one day!
Quoting RobDaHood:
203. sugarsand

I'll just bet you have LOL

Okay, off topic, but you guys should get a kick out of this...Went to Publix this evening to restock on mixers and sushi supplies...Got to checkout and of course, new cashier, young thing, really nice, bleach-blonde over black hair, but totally clueless. Problem with no price on an item order ahead of mine...5 minute dilema...got her all perplexed...and what was her name?...yep, Amanda...swear I've been running into Amanda's right and left lately (LOL)
spooky and I don't mean good oooooh arrrrrrrr
#212 there may have been another version showing up today....did you catch that?
Quoting sugarsand:

You and me. I can't adjust in one day!


but it saves so much energy...LOL...I'd like to see a serious study done on how many billions it cost us in lost productivity every year.
Quoting surfmom:
there may have been another version showing up today....did you catch that?


possibly, time will tell.
Quoting surfmom:
#212 there may have been another version showing up today....did you catch that?

I think I read that she was back.
A lot of people purporting to be very young but have amazing knowlege of weather...as soon as one is gone another pops up...I hate to be cynical about it, but there is more than one who arouse my suspicions at the moment.
spouse is off to Germany tomorrow -- don't blame him for being a grumble bunny --FL boy in Munich & Berlin does not make a happy camper.
area of interest
est pos
13.1n/80.3w
T.C.F.A. possible within 72/96 hrs
Quoting surfmom:
spouse is off to Germany tomorrow -- don't blame him for being a grumble bunny --FL boy in Munich & Berlin does not make a happy camper.

My 16 year old was an exchange student in Germany this summer. He disliked it. Of course, he was in school, and the food was terrible, and he is a FL boy! He was near Stuttgart.
RobDaHood -- it not about being cynical -- your instincts are correct. There are certain similar qualities in the photos & the photo sources as well and a few other things... same vibe as the shark
Quoting RobDaHood:
A lot of people purporting to be very young but have amazing knowlege of weather...as soon as one is gone another pops up...I hate to be cynical about it, but there is more than one who arouse my suspicions at the moment.

So, what's the point they are trying to make, by being something other than what/who they are?!
Quoting RobDaHood:


but it saves so much energy...LOL...I'd like to see a serious study done on how many billions it cost us in lost productivity every year.


The rational for DST however is no longer really valid with the way we live now since it was intended for a society where everybody rose and went to bed with the daylight. In fact, recent studies have shown that it may actually waste energy:

Wasting energy by saving time?

What they found, Kotchen says, is that “the ‘Ben Franklin’ effect is still there — [DST] saves on lighting.” But there’s a tradeoff: DST also increased the demand for heating and cooling. “In early spring and late fall, DST makes people wake up during the coldest, darkest part of the day, and so they’ll run the heat longer,” he adds. “At the same time, in the middle of summer when the days are hottest,” it stays light later. So, for example, “people might turn up the air conditioning when having dinner.”

Overall, the increase in residential electricity demand for climate control was greater than the decrease in demand for lighting, the researchers reported at a National Bureau of Economic Research meeting in February. Residential electricity demand increased by 1 to 4 percent, ultimately costing Indiana households $8.6 million more per year. Another factor, they noted, is the “social cost” of DST, in terms of paying for damages from increased pollution emissions. Increases in those emissions cost households between $1.6 million and $5.3 million per year.
Husband does business there a bit.... like the area around frankfurt best... but only in the spring/summer. My youngest son enjoys the country, my eldest not at all..... I did not enjoy it too much personally.... not enough sunlight


223. surfmom

heh,heh,heh

instincts have served me well for a lot of years...

Germany, you either love it or hate it...I've heard both from fl boys...they do have some good brews (and wines) though...maybe that has an effect on perspective
Quoting sugarsand:

So, what's the point they are trying to make, by being something other than what/who they are?!
...I smell a game of cat & mouse entrapment....but I'm going out on a limb here....although, one young buck wrote he was very upset (WUmail)
225. MichaelSTL

Agree with you 100 percent...Just another ploy by congress to look like they are doing something about energy...all it does is disrupt our lives. Have often wished they would just set it in the middle and leave it alone...
Quoting surfmom:
Husband does business there a bit.... like the area around frankfurt best... but only in the spring/summer. My youngest son enjoys the country, my eldest not at all..... I did not enjoy it too much personally.... not enough sunlight



He flew into Frankfurt, and was actually in Kleinbottwar, a tiny village, and went to school in Marbach. I have not been, and like you, want to go where there is sunshine....
It was fun to see and experience the country, but there's no yearning to return...but then just getting me to leave my spot is very difficult....just always want more tropical ...with no tourists
I think the majority of us just want them to pick a time and stick with it -- twice a year I'm bumpy for a week.
Where the heck is pottery tonight? Did his wife come home and question all those messages to "sugar"?
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Caribbean
Rob... if his wife just came home... I don't think they're talking right now.... probably won't see you when yours returns LOL
231 Surfmom Your tourist season is going to start winding up and ours is winding down. Very quiet here now.
Man from the Land of Moose -- and chilly pond water.... you are still awake??
Ahh yes... sugar.... I saw the germ-carriers and bearers of Flu already
Quoting RobDaHood:
Where the heck is pottery tonight? Did his wife come home and question all those messages to "sugar"?

Very funny!
to be honest, I am quite fond of the Canadians.... it's some of the others -- that irk me
Quoting surfmom:
Man from the Land of Moose -- and chilly pond water.... you are still awake??


Yeah.. its really late here... almost 7pm
Surfmom,

Love the way your mind works, glad I'm not the only one who's twisted that way...unfortunately in the real world my girlfriend will probably come home with bronchitis or something and I'll be cooking soup for 3 days!

As for your post about not leaving home...I get accused all the time of not wanting to leave Florida...I've already been to most of the places I want to go...Can't help it, I just like it here. Not that I'll never leave, just haven't found a place that works better for me yet.
That's right -- your just getting ready to rock and roll......
Quoting RobDaHood:
225. MichaelSTL

Agree with you 100 percent...Just another ploy by congress to look like they are doing something about energy...all it does is disrupt our lives. Have often wished they would just set it in the middle and leave it alone...


Unlike some other things from Congress, it did work or make sense - at least back in the day when not many people had furnaces or A/C and mainly lived by the sun (so lighting was the biggest factor), but it no longer works very well now. As a compromise, they could just set the time ahead half an hour (between DST and standard time) and leave it like that. That would also help equalize the change across separate time zones; currently the actual sunrise/sunset times vary by about an hour across each zone so even when standard time is used, it is effectively an hour later on the other side of the timezone (putting it ahead half an hour would make the difference half an hour to either side, away from the actual sunrise/sunset times).
WEll, I'm out --- my morning miles are talking to me right now.... and much office ick to do tomorrow. G'night All
LOL you creeps ! Yeah, she came home, and all is well, so there!
Whats with an orange circ. !! Dont look too good now, to me.
244. MichaelSTL

right, I was referring to last year when they extended it and said it would make a big difference...
hehehe!

hey pottery, had a feeling you were lurking outh there and wanted to get your attention.

Orange circle...who knows?...more wait and see.

need more rum BRB
G'bye Surfmom, hello Pottery!
Quoting pottery:
LOL you creeps ! Yeah, she came home, and all is well, so there!
Whats with an orange circ. !! Dont look too good now, to me.
its wait watch see mode pottery
Quoting RobDaHood:
Surfmom,

Love the way your mind works, glad I'm not the only one who's twisted that way...unfortunately in the real world my girlfriend will probably come home with bronchitis or something and I'll be cooking soup for 3 days!

As for your post about not leaving home...I get accused all the time of not wanting to leave Florida...I've already been to most of the places I want to go...Can't help it, I just like it here. Not that I'll never leave, just haven't found a place that works better for me yet.
I don't leave Florida very often. Folks ask where we "vacation", living in Florida....uh, The Keys? You bet!
should see something soon sw caribbean maybe starting tomorrow afternoon
Evening All.

SW Caribbean looks like it needs some jumper cables...
Keeper, Sugar, Rob. Been a great day here, feels like the start of the dry season. But I'm not counting on that. November is a rainy one here, but things would need to change big-time for that to happen. Strange stuff.
All the wise ones are pretty optimistic on the current orange becoming an issue. Would be fun to watch that, but I'm dubious.......
Quoting sugarsand:
I don't leave Florida very often. Folks ask where we "vacation", living in Florida....uh, The Keys? You bet!


Don't take a lot of "vacations" but extended weekends several times a year...am centrally located so I can be on either coast in 2hrs...beyond that can be most anywhere in the country or even islands in 4 hours...works for me.
Looks to stay well east of the FL peninsula if anything were to develop.
I'm seeing the need for the jumper cables too, DRAK.
You think it will get them ?
255. pottery

I'm "cautiously optimistic" about it...does not look very healthy tonight...keeping an eye out the backdoor, but nothing to get excited about just yet. Don't see (or feel) it a threat for FL, but possible nasty for Cuba, Bahamas...
Quoting RobDaHood:


Don't take a lot of "vacations" but extended weekends several times a year...am centrally located so I can be on either coast in 2hrs...beyond that can be most anywhere in the country or even islands in 4 hours...works for me.

We are 4 hours driving time from New Orleans, 5 hours from Atlanta, 12 hours from Key West (and we live in Florida). We have to fly to Atlanta to fly back down to Key West.
Quoting Drakoen:
SW Caribbean looks like it needs some jumper cables...
dev will be slow to occur if any and it could happen over next two days hopefully not but we could get a hat trick outta there i feel maybe by tomorrow afternoon we should really start to see something get together
Night shift is here, I keep hearing the theme song from JAWS!! LOL
Agree with the slow development. Seems the upper level anti-cyclone has left the area.
Sugar

We have to fly to Atlanta to fly back down to Key West

Makes sense huh! LOL

Well, folks, my spelling is getting bad and my typing worse...time for a break (never did get that nap today)

hope you all have a great evening!
Ok, I have to walk de dogs. Have a grand evening. If it makes it more legitimate, ya'll can call me "sand" instead of "sugar" LOL. Don't need any grief from the loves of your life! Not a wishcaster, by any means.
Quoting pottery:
I'm seeing the need for the jumper cables too, DRAK.
You think it will get them ?


I don't know POTTERY. We'll see what happens.
Quoting sugarsand:

We are 4 hours driving time from New Orleans, 5 hours from Atlanta, 12 hours from Key West (and we live in Florida). We have to fly to Atlanta to fly back down to Key West.
Quoting sugarsand:

We are 4 hours driving time from New Orleans, 5 hours from Atlanta, 12 hours from Key West (and we live in Florida). We have to fly to Atlanta to fly back down to Key West.
You end up in key west, so what is your problem
Jaws was the most disturbing movie for me. Took me years to get over the conviction that a dam monster was going to bite me in half every time i went in the sea. ANd just when I was getting over the phobia, a submerged coconut branch grabbed he around the middle in the surf at Maracas bay. Freaked me out.....
Its all good, Sugar. Sand just will not do.
Quoting pottery:
Its all good, Sugar. Sand just will not do.

K, later, my friends!
268. pottery

ROFLMAO...Geez pottery, now I can't breathe...TOO funny!

nite
Brat, you guys hit Cot and Co. 52-4 in the rugby.??!!
Thats taking advantage......
Quoting RTLSNK:
Night shift is here, I keep hearing the theme song from JAWS!! LOL


You sure this wasn't it? LOL

Nite Sugar and Rob.
(they've gone off together ?)
sheesh pottery he gave me crap about beer, I thought I would return the favor, It was a bugger that he was sleeping at the time but he will wake soon, hope we are awake to see it LOL your killin me, oh talking about eating a bit of roo and washing it down with fosters, what time is it can't be long now LOL damn I am a brat
HABS

APOD

Back to work...
LOL Brat. Poor Cot. He has had a rough couple of days. The only bright spark was Hamilton winning the F1. But Ham. is mostly West Indian, so it hardly counts.
We must'nt be too hard on him though. In spite of the fact that he drinks warm beer.....
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #2
03:00 AM UTC November 3 2008
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Polo (1007 hPa) located at 8.9ºN 111.3ºW or 845 NM south of the southern tip of Baja California has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 9.7N 114.8W - 45 kts (CYCLONE)
48 HRS: 10.9N 117.9W - 55 kts (CYCLONE)
72 HRS: 12.0N 120.5W - 60 kts (CYCLONE)
273 - ROTFLMAO
that name just keeps coming up today doesn't it. I guess the idea of Amanda/Amander trolling around the blog like a shark does have a certain amount of panache to it, confused, but showy! LOL
Quoting pottery:
LOL Brat. Poor Cot. He has had a rough couple of days. The only bright spark was Hamilton winning the F1. But Ham. is mostly West Indian, so it hardly counts.
We must'nt be too hard on him though. In spite of the fact that he drinks warm beer.....
hey Pottery, it was all good,kept my mouth shut about the 20/20 and then he had to say something about the beer I drink, so ribbing him a bit, don't know much about weather but can take the mickey out of him for beer choice and cricket, PS threw in rugby for good measure, LOL
Thieves among Honor...

You can trust firefighters with your valuables, but watch your condiments!

A new product in our refrigerator:

I can't believe it's not my butter.
Soo.... when do we get the new system.. it has to happen before Tuesday
Why Tuesday ? What happens on Tuesday ??
Quoting pottery:
Why Tuesday ? What happens on Tuesday ??


The yanks go bonkers
Brat, we have to ease up on Cot. Its 47F and raining there. Poor guy.........
heheheh
they been bonkers for years........
Quoting pottery:
Brat, we have to ease up on Cot. Its 47F and raining there. Poor guy.........
heheheh


Hey I found a great place to learn about you :)
Link
Quoting pottery:
they been bonkers for years........


Ok.. agreed..
Umm more Bonkers? Bonkier?
268 - pottery
What did it for me was a close encounter with a rather large hammer-head shark way out east of Miami one summer. Don't mean to upset any fish lovers on here, but that thing is one scary looking sucker.
Quoting pottery:
Brat, we have to ease up on Cot. Its 47F and raining there. Poor guy.........
heheheh


Have to ask?
who is Patric Manning?
Quoting RTLSNK:
268 - pottery
What did it for me was a close encounter with a rather large hammer-head shark way out east of Miami one summer. Don't mean to upset any fish lovers on here, but that thing is one scary looking sucker.


Had the same kind of experience in Hawaii. We were out on a reef snorkeling.. saw some baby ones..about 2 feet long.. so we sort of chased them.. then Mommy came home... roles reversed in a hurry.
Yep, its all there Orca. But like any other media, its mostly dirty laundry.
Lots of good stuff (like anywhere else) and it never gets noticed....
Manning is our Prime Minister.
megalomaniac.......
But we have no choice right now.
Quoting pottery:
Brat, we have to ease up on Cot. Its 47F and raining there. Poor guy.........
heheheh
pottery had some choice words but LOL will do for now
291-Orca
Did the same thing in the Everglades, wife wanted to take photos, I go along as bodyguard, can take out a Griz with what I normally carry, heard what I thought was a wild boar grunting, started making grunting noises myself, came around a bend to find a large gator making grunting noises. oops.
I'm gone. Solid gone..
see you tomorow or so.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok.. agreed..
Umm more Bonkers? Bonkier?

No comment.
Quoting RTLSNK:
291-Orca
Did the same thing in the Everglades, wife wanted to take photos, I go along as bodyguard, can take out a Griz with what I normally carry, heard what I thought was a wild boar grunting, started making grunting noises myself, came around a bend to find a large gator making grunting noises. oops.


Gators.. not my idea of fun..
Mind you.. wild boars are suppose to be pretty mean also.. but to my knowledge they don't try and have you as a snack.
Quoting HurricaneKing:

No comment.


Thats not like you :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats not like you :)



Actually I try to stay out of the limelight up here. I used to comment years ok then all he!! broke loose and I hid for a while. After everything got better I came back but mostly talked about the weather and to say hello to people. But the past couple of years I've gotten more involved and the election has got me hooked. It's my first ever chance to vote so I'm one of those crazy yanks though in the south rednecks might better apply at least for me anyway.
Quoting HurricaneKing:



Actually I try to stay out of the limelight up here. I used to comment years ok then all he!! broke loose aand I hid for a while. After everything got better I came back but mostly talked about the weather and to say hello to people. But the past couple of years I've gotten more involved and the election has got me hooked. It's my first ever chance to vote so I'm one of those crazy yanks though in the south rednecks might might better apply at least for me anyway.


I must admit..I do enjoy to throw in the odd little shot..and then sit back and watch the fun :)
On to weather. The disturbance isn't looking very good. Thats probably because of the extratropical storm developing in the Bahamas. I figure if it lives it'll get its shot once the noreaster type thing moves n toward nc. The tropical disturbance will probably move nw then n then ne out to sea.
Quoting RobDaHood:
A lot of people purporting to be very young but have amazing knowlege of weather...as soon as one is gone another pops up...I hate to be cynical about it, but there is more than one who arouse my suspicions at the moment.


Darn you caught me. ; ) JK. I actually am 15, but my friends say I am obsessed with weather, which is probably why I know a lot about that.
Marco, Polo :)

If only marco live longer to be named TS Marco-Polo...
Nite guys, see you in the AM.
Quoting Hurricaneblast:
Marco, Polo :)

If only marco live longer to be named TS Marco-Polo...


That would be so ironic I would die of irony. By the way, if Marco did make it to the EPac, it would still be Marco. But this is the first year to have both Marco and Polo.

HurricaneKing, Orca, you still there?
The blog is now dead. I'm going. Night
Quoting hurristat:


That would be so ironic I would die of irony. By the way, if Marco did make it to the EPac, it would still be Marco. But this is the first year to have both Marco and Polo.

HurricaneKing, Orca, you still there?


Not if it had just been remains. Then there could of been Marco-polo. Back to work.
Orange alert
Morning
Morning...
Good morning!


Photobucket

Photobucket

T.S Polo is developing an eye
Goog Mornig all

Nice weather here in Elkton. Now to get kids off to school..........

BBl
good morning. lots of turning with our soon to be td yet the ir looks unimpressive. kman a month ago said these late season systems sometimes are unpredictable. not sure about this one.
INVEST 93L:
Good Morning, 93L is lacking deep convection but is much more defined in terms of circulation today, if it can get some deep convection going I think we may have a TD or TS in a day or 2, JMO.
Good morning everyone

93L is behaving true to form for a late season threat, hardly any motion to speak of and taking a long time to organize.

Conditions aloft are not ideal for development as it is currently situated to the West of an anticyclone that is located near 10N 68W or just to the East of Lake Maracaibo. This anticyclone is imparting some shear to 93L on the W side of the high .

If the high continues to migrate to the W then conditions for shear should improve.

For the time being it is watch and wait. If it becomes a TD I would not expect that to happen before 24 to 36 hrs.

Quikscat this morning missed about 95% of 93L but does show N and NNW winds on the extreme W edge of the area where it is situated.

Where Is everybody?

I am going to say that we may have TD 17 in 24 hours or less.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Area of Interest ... Invest 93L
Satellite Picture ... Invest 93L
Good morning everyone.....
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good morning everyone.....


Morning Tim
Is it just me.. or is there another swirl to the east of 93L?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Morning Tim
Is it just me.. or is there another swirl to the east of 93L?


Yep there is another spin just east of there but, it may not be at the lower levels when you look at the vorticity map nothing looks like its at the lower levels....

remember the last cyclone went right through the anegeda straights a few days after an earthqk.in that area. wonder if the trend continues? after todays 5.5 quake in p.rico it would not be a surprise to me that the new system end up coming close to that island.
Hello everyone,

Starting to wonder if the real weather story for next day or two isn't S.Carolina/N.Carolina/Virginia. Looks like they could be seeing a lot of rain.
Good mornning everyone. I was watching 93 L yesterday morning and was going to comment on it. Doesn't look much different since then.
And what the heck is this? Interesting image.
Rob looks like a MESTAT image of a Low impacting Europe. Came from the Med Sea
decent sat rep

(trouble posting, trying again)

Morning Bonedog,

Yeah, sure you're right. Haven't been watching that area and was surprised to see a "well defined bright red swirly thingy" in that location - LOL - need more caffine!
blog hole?

lost 3 posts now. HMMMMMMMMM
Rob have you seen the GFDL runs of 93L this morning?





Link
334. Bonedog

That is not too far from what GFS, CMC, and ECMWF were showing yesterday...little more west crossing Cuba...Thinking the intensity may be a bit on the high side of reality. Would really have to start getting it's act together.

South Santee River South Carolina out to 20 nautical miles... low pressure will develop tonight along a stationary front just offshore...then move slowly to the northeast...affecting the area through early Wednesday. Weak high pressure will follow Thursday and Friday.
Small Craft Advisory in effect through Wednesday morning
Forecast as of 9:17 am EST on November 3, 2008
Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm-
Today
E to NE winds around 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft...except 5 ft near shore. Showers likely.
Tonight
E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Near shore...seas 5 to 7 ft. Occasional showers.
Tue
E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft... except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Rain.
Tue Night
NE winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain likely in the evening...then a chance of rain after midnight.
Wed
N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed Night
N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Thu
NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri
W winds around 10 kt...becoming SW 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Morning MissNadia,

Not the best boating weather I take it?
Yea Rob might be on the high side for intensity but according to that run its not going to get its act together till the 7th or 8th. Still a long ways off.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Morning MissNadia,

Not the best boating weather I take it?

Hi Rob
No not good , I'm done for thr yesr!!!!
New blog
NEW BLOG
Morning Miss Nadia. Looks like the Carolinas will be in the bad weather this time around =(
Bone,

we were discussing last night how tired I am of these sit and spin, wait and see scenarios...

I'll be in and out today - paperwork, ugh!