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Disturbance in the Northwest Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:21 PM GMT on November 17, 2005

Hello all, it's Shaun again.

Disturbance in the northwest Caribbean

The National Hurricane Centered issued a Tropical Disturbance Statement for the disturbance in the northwest Caribbean Sea at 4:25 PM EST.
To summarize the statement, a hurricane hunter investigated the area and found that the disturbance off the Nicaragua coast had not developed into a tropical depression. In fact, areal coverage and intensity of shower activity has decreased significantly over the past few hours as evidence in satellite imagery.

The hurricane hunter also investigated the remnants of Tropical Depression Twenty-seven and found no closed circulation. Suprisingly, tropical storm force winds along with shower activity was observed in the area.
When looking at the satellite imagery, it is evident that there is significant convection noted along with the remnants of Twenty-seven. It seems as though this system now has the best chance of further development over the next few days as it resides in an environment of weak shear. The farther north it travels, however, the more shear it will encounter.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Recon Plan Of The Day:
759
NOUS42 KNHC 171600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EST THU 17 NOV 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z NOV 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-174

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02JJA INVEST
C. 18/1400Z
D. 16.0N 83.5W
E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FOLLOW ON MISSION
FOR 19/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Vortex Message Should Be Out Soon
Oh this is just great!
What we all want to see!
oh my!
Hi 21, Nice isn't it?
Stop the Insanity!
I'm speechless... Anyway, I guess the site is messed up, I've been trying to get on...
How are you palm??
It's been down for some time now.
I am getting ready to go home, and will
probably try to get on later
Doing great 21 how about you?
Bye girl... See ya later...
palmbeacher & p21, my apologies for the animation post...
alot of wu members haven't been able to access some info today..thought i was helping, again my apologies if i inadvertently annoyed anyone.
Pretty good...
No Crackergirl. Thank you for doing
that! I just hate seeing something else
in the waters this late in the season.
I don't want anymore.
I really do appreciate what you
have put on here. I just wish that
it didn't exist.lol
21 and Flcrackergirl.
Have a good night getting out of here
hopefully this thing will go away.
Talk to ya later.
Night Palmbeach...
Ditto the sentiments...I So want to be Done With This Season!
Invest Models from Skeetobite
Gotta Love Etch-a-Sketch Models!
well, palm, then i won't mention that new thing they're watching in the atlantic... oops
flcrackergirl... i looked at the skeetobite picture, but it was too small to see... have you got a link for it?
Larger Link to Skeetobite Models

(sorry for itty-bitty linkie)
FLcracker - Not mad at ya!!
thanks p21!
Wow ~ is that mother nature smiling a little scary at us? The carribian's storm looks more organized, seems like that will thread the needle or hit a lot o land, then reoganize in gulf, over fl or the breedin grounds just east of fl. Then it is forcasted to strengthin, might brush NC & possible be a hard hit for the northest. Yesterday one model had Alabama getting hit hard (along with Ga & panhandle). I thought of the phycic the Dr Master's had mentioned.lol. se us keep an eye on that, if your right near it don't blink. 2. is the right eye or system in the atlantic that i mentioned 2 days ago. don't think it will hold together. 3. is the storm to hit nw africa. Doesn't look as strong as forcasted a few days ago. Well, it's the 1-2-3 rule, just more spread out than what we saw earlier this season.
Hi all, funny how a storm gets everyone running back to wunderground :)

Does anyone get a knot in their stomach when they look at this thing. Even if we here in S. Florida were hit with something as minor as a tropical storm it would be a big mess. Since Wilma hit anytime there are rains a few hundred or thousand more people become homeless.
Hey Coco, how are you??
Hi 21. I'm doing well. Trying to have everything back to normal again. How are you?
did the latest model runs move little more north? i agree this is not a good thing....I also feel sorry for those who are getting the rain now.
Hey all,
"Hail Hail the Gangs All Here"
good to hear from you again Coconut! Well we are still missing a few of the key players but surely they will come home soon.
I need information, that is the only way I can function with those storms out there! It is Nov 17th, I have to shop for Thanksgiving Dinner next week! But, I remember us having a Thanksgiving Tropical Storm in the mid 80's I know it was then because I was still in my house in Hollywood then and I had relatives down for the holiday.
We have had tropical storms in mid-late November but no big storms....Gordon was a November storm.
I'm with all of you ladies, I want it to go away....
Gamma
funny, I wake up this morning, turn on my computer, see a massive system getting more organized on the SAT pic, NHC not really mentioning it, Weather Underground site is down, Accuweather not really mentioning it, the link on NHC's site for QuikScat winds is broken,and i'm going it looks like it's at least a depression. Yes, the main circulation is over land, but it is extremely organized,makes you wonder if they're hiding somethin' ;-). hah!
a whole day without the blog for me --- finally got connected a few minutes ago. Didn't realize how many times a day I peeked in here until it wasn't here.
31. dcw
Recon is reporting 49kt flight level winds, and has found winds in every direction. We have a Gamma!
spirit, that was my feeling. i was searching around and no one was talking about that blob! and WU goes down for a big part of the morning....help...
Pretty good, glad you are ok!
I agree Weatherspirit, VERY organized!!
It's good to "see" everyone! I'm trying to make up for lost Wilma time workwise so have been pretty busy. Glad everyone is well. Have to run now but will be popping in from time to time to say hello and "RUN FROM THE BLOB" :)
DCW,.....NOOOOOO GAMMA NOOOOO
please tell me you are just guessing, it's not for real yet is it? none of the sites are talking about it, not even a TD yet...what's going on here...
gamma (the good gamma)
37. OGal
Hi everybody, can't believe there is one track across Central Florida. Will it arrive on Thanksgiving DaY?? I have been trying to get into this site all day. I sure am glad you guys are keeping up to date. Skeetobite change those models!!
It looks like an interesting week leading up to Thanksgiving. I will be heading down to West Palm Beach (Wellington) to visit my sister Thursday-Sunday.
Link

Check this out, good news for now!
nhc has put up a special advisory:

000
WONT41 KNHC 172024
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS NOT DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. WHILE THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003
MB IN THE LOW...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE AIRCRAFT ALSO INVESTIGATED THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE PLANE REPORTED WINDS OF
NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA.

THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM. EVEN IF DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...HEAVY RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER BEVEN
one track across central florida???? i thought this think was tracking south of Cuba???
swflkr...snap!
Link to lates QuikScat image. On its last two passes, it has seen the winds at least depression strength. Also looks like two seperate centers of circulation, the larger one over Honduras, smaller one off the coast of Nicaragua.
I made a minor update to my blog about the tornado outbreak.
well, i guess the nhc knows best. Still looks like a depression to me, but I don't make the big bucks to call it.
Central Florida? Link please. None of the models I've looked at show this thing even developing into much of a surface feature at all. The ones that do aren't showing it coming anywhere near Florida. Save the NOGAPS, which is showing a low spinning up west of FLorida, but that is in reference to a low expected to develope from the cold front coming in Sunday night. Am I missing something?
Link

The LBAR shows it going through Central FL, not one of the best models at all.
it's the LBAR~ the statistical model~ it almost always goes over us, cause statistically that's where storms there end up this time of year. It's not real reliable.
the current gfdl doesn't even devolop it, i throw it out causehow bad it did on 27~ 2 circulations close by & it's been wrong
Hi Skyepony (pretty horse - btw)
Not necessarily. Models do differently on different systems. Just because the GFDL did poorly on 27, doesn't mean it will now. It was, after all, the model that handled Katrina the best by far. Admittedly, the GFS has been better lately. That one doesn't develop anything either. There is a pretty good consensus now that this system in any case is no threat to Florida. Of course, stay tuned!
I remember last season it was the NOGAPS (of all things) that handled the Jeanne "loop" the best and well before the other models had a clue. That, to me, was a shocker.
"no threat to Florida"...that is what I am hoping.....thks subtropic
the GDFL has it going over central Cuba and staying away from FL. That's generally the best model overall. I wouldn't sweat the LBAR, it's not really reliable.
Sub - You can tell your "donkey", lol is Arabian.. You can see it in her/his head structure.. Pretty horse.. I love them, been riding since I was tiny.. =)
Skypony - Your horse is pretty too, (Quarter?)
Hey Subtropic~ thanks he's a looker... anyway I was saying i throw it outh this time because a little 27 circulation still exists. It did bad on 27 cause 2 circulations were around (not both closed). Over the past few days especially when they were watching i93 & td27, you get 2 totally different weather sinarios. It doesn't do well with more than 1 circulation is around in the same area. & the consistantsy~ last run doesn't form it, run before 120kts hitting cuba. I'm chuckin it for this one. gonna go play
Hey 21! She is currently in training. We hope to be riding her very soon.
He has a small head too...

Anyway, I'm off the subject, lol...
Connamara pony X arab
Ohhh funn..
Skyepony - Understood and agreed.
All we ever really rode were quarter horses.. lol (the cheaper horses)
Anyway guys, I'm outta here, see ya'll tomorrow..

Happy Trails!!
Quarter horses are great too. The only ones you have to watch out for are the ones that roam in packs and stay out late at night. They can be trouble.
Later 21. I'm going to take my "dreadfully off-topic" self outta here too.
LMAO Sub, see ya later ;-)
any thoughts on if or when td 28 will form? should be an interesting night on the blogs
TD28 is here, and it is getting organized pretty well.
well if we listen to the weather channel nothing is going to develop.....think i will watch bryan norcross at 500
southbeach,
let us know what brian says. thanks
hey gamma....he said we should get some tropical moisture this weekend, but did not see us being affected much by it next week....stay tuned....
we are suppose to get a cool front come thru this weekend, aren't we? getting into the 50's at night around here. hope it keeps that system well to the south of us.
Thanks again dude for letting us know what norcross says!
i hav updated my blog
DIE BLOB DIE!!!
(think that's too violent a message?)
Anyone else have trouble getting on earlier today? I couldn't.
Hi Cgables. yeah they were having trouble at WU today. And I don't think that message was too violent at all!
gamma, I'm SOOO looking forward to those temps!!! A lovely change!!!
Today has been kinda gloomy here...
Hey cococreek! We been blogging all along. Go read our novella, it's highly ::VBG:: controversial!!!
Hi sub! Oh, OK ::snicker:: then I can't blame AOHell???
It apparently did not affect everyone, but I do not have AOHell and I couldn't get in either. Probably a DNS issue that only affect certain ISPs.
I saw your post in my blog. Of course, I hope you know you are welcome to drop in any time. I don't spend a lot of time there except at night. I will be blogging MUCH less in the coming week as I prepare to store raw fish, twigs and berries for hybernation.
Gal, we can always blame "Garth"!!! LOLOLOLOL
we got a TS now where did this show up link
Hey guys, I made a very important update to my blog about Tuesday's tornado outbreak.
so is this thing a depression yet or what
Tornadoty,
I just checked your blog. Nice job on researching all of the tornadoes.I checked the names of the towns to ensure none of them were towns were my relatives live. Thanks again for the information.
Gamma
everyone, I have off work now and got to go home. I doubt if I sign back on tonight so Good Night to you all and hope tomorrow the blob will disappear!
Gamma
Not to be glad WU was down, but am relieved to hear it. Tried frantically during my lunch break at work to log on. Was beginning to think the Powers that Be had cut off my access somehow, because I'd been sneaking on so much during the day. Only time we're allowed is at lunch. LOL
do not get your hop up on that one that is lookinh very good and be come a td 28 at any time now or a ts and i will no longer ues 8888889gg so her is a little bit more fun to ues so her is my new one KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
thats what i was saying KRWZ ill call you that is that ok
Thank you Gamma.
weatherluver18 yes you can call me that
weatherluver18 ok i get that in a lol do you think that is now td 28 by looking at it any one?
that great that you get it im very disapointed right now but it will pass thats life

thats great i can call you that nick name so much easier on my fingers lol
Here is a link for another maybe even better view of this system and what else is out there. I hope this does not come our way, however the trough does not seem to be digging in far enough south to prevent the system from moving towards Florida yet again. The dry air appears to be just sitting on top of Texas and the northern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. We shall see however where it ends up going, and pray that South Florida does not recieve the old one two punch that has happened here before.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
gamma... if i haven't missed you... that cold front is supposed to park itself north of us and make it rain down here all weekend ... drat
water temps in the area this system is trying to develope in are still very warm.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/novnonactive/gulfcaribbeanseasurfacetemps_large.html

Anyone have a link to the shear in this are? And are there any contributing factors that will inhibit rapid growth of this developing system? I already did my pushups for this system, so the final outcome of this one will not be bad. BB73
That blob looks like a depression to me..
and me too
lol Katrina.. I guess I'm missing something..??
102. dcw
I've been issuing advisories on it for a while, due to the fact that is IS a T.D. I can't beleive that the NHC isn't calling this one. The surface circulation isn't totally closed yet, but the mid-upper level ones are, and surface winds are TS force with a 1003 mb pressure.

Link
dos any one now where this is going i look like to me it is going to FL or some where in the gulf or so where in TX
We've been living with this "not storm" all week. It's been quite windy, buckets of rain, near night time dark skies at noon, and now today we got a high tide on the beach about a foot above normal. I've been writing and asking someone to notice that we're getting smacked around down here.

YES! They did! THANKS!

They now say today we're getting tropical storm force winds. I can't help but say, "Gee! Ya think?"

I was on my generator all last night from this non-storm.

Still I'd LOVE to know if we'll be able to fly out our guests this weekend. They're all getting REALLY sick of playing board (or maybe I should say BORED) games.

Will we EVER see the sun again?

First Wilma, then Beta, and NO NAME. We've been getting drowned for 6 weeks+!

All I really want to know is will this storm season EVER end?
105. dcw
Yeah, I'd say the last storm should be a great way to finish off winter break *rolls eyes*
Where is the "A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS."? That swirl out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean?
outside the rain begins
and it may never end...

sorry, bay, couldn't resist... it does seem like the nhc is determined not to acknowledge the severity of this system... i sometimes wonder if storms only exist if they threaten the us coast or are just too huge to ignore, but that's just my normal cynicism *grin*

i hope for your sake and that of your guests that it falls apart overnight... or at least lets up enough to give you guys a break...
torn... just looked at your update... sounds like it's been a really bad time out there... has it let up with the movement of the front or is the second front going to cause more problems?
Hey everyone, I got a short chance to log in at home tonight. Of course, I have to get up at 5:30am so don't expect me on too long. Unlike you "young'ens" I need my sleep! I also do not know why this is not at least at TD by now. Everyone, let's just keep an eye out and hope for the best. I have a lot to do next week, getting ready for Thanksgiving for all of the family and then Christmas kicks in and I have 2 weeks of decorating to do! I do not have time to entertain Hurricane or at best Tropical Storm Gamma. It would confuse the grandkids anyway!
I don't know if I will be here much long but will try to check in one more time before bed.
Gamma
AySz88, yes, that swirl could become a system.

Mousey, the severe wx is past. For Sure. The high today was 28F, and right now, the wind chill is 9F.
oh my goodness, torn... bitter cold weather for you... i hope the winter in the rest of the country won't be as bad as the summer/ autumn has been for us in SoFla...
hi gamma... enjoying the rain? channel 5 weatherman says we can look forward to it all weekend, and cooler weather early next week... i hope it stays cool while i'm baking my pies for turkey day...
unreal...... don't think my house, with 2/3 of roof missing will stand up very well.... let's see, since insurance doesn't even want to cover all that it needs to, another named storm I can file another claim? Believe me, I'm not being facetious, maybe some of our neighbors in Palm Beach know? Citizens (which I'm sure alot of us have, think you can get a new roof in Broward County (Ft Laud) for $10,000)..... ha, ha, ha....and I have mold, ceiling, wall problems.....ugghh..they will only cover a max of $10,000 for mold remediation/repairs (so they say)....anyone with advice feel free to email me ....thanks

Has anyone gotten their FPL yet? I posted on Turtles blog, but it seems they just chopped mine in half (from last month), they'll kill us with their "true" readings next month, just in time for Christmas......
Everyone says we are in for a brutally cold winter. I can deal with that reality if we can get a lot of snow too.
Mousey....don't you love how they are hiding all this? they act like we didn't have a major hurricane here.... the NHC hides alot.....thank goodness for private sites....(and I DON'T mean to ignite that discussion all over again).... we have enough to worry about now....
billsfan... my fpl bill was about the same as last month, and half again the kw usage as last year at this time despite buying a new a/c... i'm gonna pull my main fuse and see if the meter stops running!

as for insurance advice, you might try what my daughter did last year... she contested the adjuster's statement and forced them to come back out, at which time she showed them all that was missing... before they got there, she got estimates on what it would cost to have the work done... they doubled her insurance check...
oh, i am very leery of believing anything anyone connected with the government says... and the nhc has gotten severe criticism for being 'alarmist' (otherwise known as honest) in the past, so they may be under orders to tone things down
dos any one no where i can find a web site of some hurricane video from this year or last year like cnn or twc or some where or a link ?
yeah, they said they wouldn't come back out, just to send estimates.... thing is, adjustor got here so early the damage wasn't apparent as it is now.... water justs keep getting more invasive as time goes on.....citizens said just to send estimates.....
120. code1
billsfann, I have friend's from LA who doesn't even have a home to have mold. The wind and then the flood took care of it for them. I have told them of some of WU people's problems with Wilma. They have mixed feelings....in one way they would love to have to deal with mold, lost roofing, etc. but, in other ways, they are glad they don't. Just waiting on insurance now. I feel so badly for all who have to go through either.
weathervine.com... they sell their footage to the networks... but they've got some footage you can view online...
billsfan... it's worth sending the estimates because they will prove your case... she also sent lots of photos of the damage... like you, she had a lot that became apparent later... it's still the same incident, so they have to consider it
code1... i understand what you are saying... there was a point last year when i thought life would be easier if my place just blew away... collect the insurance and start fresh... but i might not even be able to find a place i could afford here, so i kicked myself and that got me thinking more rationally again... i would be in big trouble in billsfan's place, i couldn't deal with the illnesses the mold would cause on top of my disability... either way, it's no picnic
124. dcw
Why in the WORLD isn't the NHC upgrading??
dcw... they dropped that special advisory...
dcw try emailing them and ask them why?
Dcw, I know you are probably still mad at me, but I might have the answer to your question.

Dcw, the only reason that this is not a tropical depression is because there is no surface circulation. The main thing that a system needs to be a tropical depression is a closed circulation at the surface.

Now tomorrow, if the Hurricane Hunters find a closed circulation at the surface, it will be either a regeneration of TD 27, TD 28, or TS Gamma.

I hope that answers your question! :)
As the Weather Underground Spins so are the Days of Our Lives
billsfan, I am here in Broward with you. My roof and house held up but I know a lot of people at work with the same problems you are dealing with. They MUST get your roof back in on then tackle the mold problem. That is your first priority. When my insurance called me for a visit "Liberty Mutual" I could not be home when they insisted they could visit so I told them to see the people who had much more damage to deal with and call us later. I doubt they will do anything for us; but we were very lucky, but so many around here are not. Sure hope Citizens helps you soon. I know you must be very unhappy about all of this. I think I recall you have children at home also don't you?
That makes it even worse. I wish I could help you out. All I can do is to direct "helpers" to those that need it more than we do first and come back and see us later. So far, we have had to come up with lots of cash money out of our pocket to handle immediate expenses; then just let those bills get behind and your phone doesn't stop ringing. I find that the most insulting of all, get 2 weeks behind and they start calling you like crazy to ask for payment of a bill you haven't given a thought to in 3 weeks!!!
(Will give some of you advise on the next part because I work for a BIG Corporation and know what BIG Corporations are suppose to do in these situations.)

Mousey, yes, it has been a steady drissle of rain since around 6:30pm tonight...good for me but not good for most of Broward County Florida. Right now I hear the rain outside has picked up...What's that all about, is it the "cool front" or what???
I will be back on soon...
well, my laptop needs recharging, so i'm gonna call it a night... see you all tomorrow...
Anyone seen that weirdly strange but still funny in a paranoid kind of way windnwaves?
Using the lattitude and longitude (LOW IS NEAR 14N83W, REMNANTS OF TD27 NEAR 18N84W MOVING NW) it looks like neither center is or was under the areas of most convection.
gamma... the front has stalled just north of us, and until it moves south we'll get rain... some seems to be reaching up from td27/28, but that could be my imagination... i'll be back tomorrow.. goodnight all
OK folks, Since no one really knows who I am or who I work for I can give you all some advise; especially those who live in our disaster zip codes.

The government sends out all of the zip codes of disaster locations to credit card companies. I know this and have dealt with this for the past 19 years with the company I work for.) They do not allow you not pay what you owe, but during a disaster, they are suppose to give you extra time to pay without late charges.
Some do this and some do not. Some do this automatically, some make you ask for the help (not reduction of debit but no late fees while you are trying to catch up.)
As all of us I have several credit cards. I have not even thought about those bills in 3 weeks and some were due when Wilma stuck; making me behind immediately that first week while we were all in the state of shock.
One company, American Express, once they verified my zip code informed me, no problem, good luck and we will not charge you late fees for the next 60 days; let us know if there is a problem after that. Another card company said, OK, we will give you 30 days to catch up. Capital said, sorry about your problems, if you want to have any special treatment you must call this number and talk to one of our representatives." I blew a gut...because I know this is not what they are suppose to say...Actually I told him what he could do with his special "treatment" and advised him that he was going against regulation and hung up on him.
Call me emotional but when people are hurting you do not kick them when they are down. You do not have to forgive their past debt but you can give them a break and a little more time to get caught up....
I hope I have not offended anyone and hope I have helped a few of you if you are in these situations.
Gamma
guess everyone is in bed and that is where I am now heading. Good night all and I will lurk and post when I get a chance tomorrow.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA



BREAKDOWN OF THE REX BLOCK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING TO TRANSPIRE AS OF NOW. HAVE INTRODUCED 10 POPS TO THE
GRIDS AS THE EFFECTS OF THE TURKEY KICKS IN PER GFS GUIDANCE...BUT
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. ARRIVING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPLIT
AROUND NCAL IF THE GFS ENDS UP CORRECT. WHILE ECMWF WOULD MEAN AT
LEAST A COUPLE DAYS AFTER THANKSGIVING BEFORE WE'RE BACK IN THE
STORM-TRACK...APPEARS THERE WOULD BE MORE COLD AIR AND A HEFTIER JET
ONCE ACTIVITY ARRIVES IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT. A COUPLE OF
TROPICAL PLAYERS...ONE IN THE CARRIBEAN...AND ANOTHER IN THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL LIKELY SEND A COUPLE MORE WRINKLES INTO THE
HEMISPHERIC MODELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL ENJOY THE
CALM BEFORE WINTER RETURNS...AND THE MODELS CONVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. LUTZ


look at this if any one is on her and what in the hell is the CARRIBEAN doing in there??
gamma, thx for the info! will follow up and pass along. I had the $$ so had paid the one bill pending prior to Wilma landfall and very happy I'd gotten it out of the way.
do we need to break out the weiner pics again for windnwaves this time?
where is evere one tonight?
Little Cayman is finally getting rain out of this system. Wind is 15 kts NE. We are hoping it will develop after it is past us and move up the cold front. It is sort of strange weather here. All the frigates are still flying and the squalls are racing by the island. Looks like Grand Cayman may get the worst of it in our neighborhood.
Good Morning all you sleepy heads out there!LOL,
It's Friday morning and here in SE Florida and it is dreary, rainy, and a little cool (according to me). This morning's early weather news states it will be that way all day; also hinted that our weekend wouldn't be that great but next week will be cool and beautiful.
About the blob, still nothing on that, just said to keep an eye on it but they do not expect development in next few days (???) the NE outflow may make it way over us to bring us more rain.

Well, I've got meetings at 11am, 1pm and 2 pm today. then some desk work I must get done. Hope to check in with all of you later when you get up and on line!
Hope you all have a good day.
Gamma
142. OGal
Mornin Gamma, here in Orlando we are to have rain Sun. and Mon. turning cold down to the 40s at night. Does this mean here we go again moving plants for freeze warnings?? They are talking here on our ABC affilitate that this will be a non tropical low-----who knows?? Have a great day!
Morning everyone from wet Grand Cayman
We had about 5-6 inches of rain last night, mainly from 5 til midnight, still drizzling this morning.
That makes over 30inches in the last two months, forgetting what the sun looks like.
Anyone have any ideas if this thing is going to develop?
144. OGal
Wow Cregnebaa, when the sun does finally come out all your tropical vegetation will look beautiful. From what they are saying here in Orlando the shear is going to be too great when this system starts to move north to keep it together. Here they are saying non tropical low. Let's keep our fingers crossed. I have just finally gotten back together after last year's storms. I know our fellow south Floridians do not even need anymore rain.
Another dark, gray day on Roatan. More TS force wind--another night spent up and down with off and on no power and cranking the generator for guests. Temps here are quite cool--winds are howling-- and I'm sleeping in my flannels at 16 degrees from the equator???

Seas are swollen a bit more today and quite choppy.

GAWD, I MISS THE SUN!

Still no idea if they'll get out on a plane tommorrow.

From all appearances, the weather here in the Bay Islands of Honduras is just getting worse. Rain has not stopped in weeks! We've long since quit measuring inches and are into feet--often per DAY! Then we quit that too as it's just too depressing to dump the rain gauge several times per day.

I sure hope this thing does NOT head stateside. My family in La and friends in FL and along the Gulf have had enuff too!

Anyone know an anti-rain dance?

Sandy Sims
www.coralbeachinn.com
146. OGal
Hang in there Sandy! You guys have had it. I suppose it is tough keeping people happy that want to be out on the reefs diving. It is like here when people want to have a happy time at Mickey Land and it is pouring rain. Hope you have some good books and flannels (that isn't fair). Maybe this mess will start to move and give you some of your gorgeous weather. Let's vote to end this miserable hurricane season!!
Sarah Fetters
Thanks OGal hopefully we'll get back to what the island looked pre Ivan.
AL27 looking like it's getting organised this morning, GFDL still showing a cat 1 for cuba for day 4.
Prays are with those in Nigarugua and Honduras at the moment with all that rain. No fear of mud slides in Grand Cayman as we're only 30ft above sealevel.
Sandy looks like things will clear up on a few days for you, keep my fingers crossed.
morning folks, here's newest from NHC:
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER
TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN

will check back in later to see what's developed.
Look at the sat images.

The circ from 93L stayed over wetlands, the low/mid-level circ remained well-formed, and is just moving out from northern Honduras to merge with the remnant convection from TS27. We'll have a TD this aft and likely a TS shortly after that. Wind shear low, directly under that anticyclone.
Thanks guys!

I just wish I knew what this thing is going to do -- and when.

It seems to just be sitting on us--dumping rain and blowing down trees as mud slides onto roads.

I really NEED to see the sun again.
miserable day here in So FL... at least no mudslides... but it does makes collecting debris messy or messier...
Just got invited to tomorrow night's UM - Georgia Tech game at the Ornage Bowl. Good thing I have a good poncho ::G::
DIE BLOB DIE!!! We've all had enough!!!
I'm starting to wonder if the tropical season will ever end. It it stays "active" through the winter season, god only knows what next year will bring.
Also, if the NHC and Dr gray are correct and this is part of 20-30 years of increased ferocious hurricanes, would it mean a popultion shift away from the coasts? Would enough people say to hell with this and move someplace else? Would there be buffer zones all along the coast where there would be a minimum distance to the coastline? Would it be mandatory to build a home strong enough to withstand a Cat3 or 4? What about insurance? All of this is moot if no one will write a policy for homes in hurricane prone areas.
Caneman - great questions!

I am wondering if that front over the "blob" will steer it NE?

How is everyone today?
Looks like the Central America blobbie is getting some spin,

As far as the increased hurricanes and people moving from the coast. I agree partially but thier is still a shift to beaches and to the south east (but the swing is going more to the southwest lately). I really wouldn't be surpised to see another Katrina or worse before the cycle calms down again (or keeps on if you buy the global warming thing).

Actually a trillion dollar hurricane is possible (ie a cat5 hit on Manhattan island.. yes would be a extermely rare event but we have no hard facts that its never happened before or can never happen
Morning all!

Does anyone see any chance of this latest blob hitting south florida?
People will never move away from the beaches, it won't happen. There would have to be a hurricane every day for that to happen. As long as people can get 4 months of paradise-like weather, they will not move.

Also, what makes you say the tropical season will extend all the way through winter? There are more factors involved in cyclone formation than just heat and sea surface temperature. Let's not be alarmists here.
HI to everone that has joined recently.
Caneman, good questions, The houses in SE Fla that were built after Andrew have held up well with those new codes; if the codes were enforced correctly.
About a buffer zone on the coast; don't think it will happen because they keep building condos and hotels right on the ocean around here. And Insurance; we already pay out the ass and it sounds like it is going to go up even more.
I may be wrong but I think my sis-in-law in California says that earthquake insurance costs about $40,000 a year and has a $10,000 deductable but no one will finance a house unless you have that insurance. Isn't that crazy? Hope ours doesn't every go that far!
Those of you in the all of the areas (islands and Central American) that are getting non-stop rain for the past 3 weeks, hang in there, your beautiful weather will return soon and everyone will be envious of your area again!
Morning to all! Happy Friday
COCO - Click on that link..

Link
Hey Palm!! You need to click on that link too.. The early models have it hitting SFL...
21, I clicked on that link and
that is not good! There are still
mounds and piles of crap all over the
roadways. I am still picking up
tiles and shingles out of my yard.
21,
I'm not coco but I clicked on your link and wish I hadn't!
LOL...that model does not look very good for any of us.
thanks for sharing.
Well, it's still early and I hope it's wrong. Every time a good rain comes somebody's roof comes down.
21, can you give us another
link that does not show it
coming to SFL???lol
Tell me about it COCO.
Not to mention the traffic lights
stop working again! Chaos.
boy, now I'm really depressed.. I really can't believe it..
Maybe we will be cooking our Turkey
on the grill and eating by candle
light! That would suck!
Good morning everyone :-)
Skeeobite computer model isn't as doomed looking as 21...but I really, really, really thought we would be done...bah humbug!
Good Morning.
I wish I hadn't looked at that like. I'm still depressed from last year!
Link - like
Dee, I am cheering for the UKMET
Sorry guys.. Hey Dee, how are ya? :-)
Looks like there is a circulation with winds at least 25-30 kts

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/cent_amer.gif
guess I'll put on the noon news... think any of them will have the guts to mention "it" and possible pathway?

I don't know Billsfan..
hey 21 and palmbeacher and everyone :-)
Im hanging in there...thought I wouldn't see what I seehere
I finally figured out how to label the links... :-)
How are you doing today?
Maybe I'll call my sister in CA. She sometimes "knows" things. Once I was talking to her and she said "Go look out your dining room window" So i did and there was a black bear looking back at me. How does she do that?
Im cheering for no models and no storm!!!!
Pretty good here Dee.. How are you Palm?
Maybe she paid the bear to do that?
hatehurricanes, when you call your sis, ask for the winning lottery numbers as well. :-)
Hey guys, I'll be back in a little bit (payroll)..
Stormy -

I tried that with the lotto no. She won't do that.
I am great it's FRIDAY!
Hi Subtropic, what's happening?
just made a copy of the links and showed them to a few people at work and they are like OH NOOOOOO, got to fill up with plenty of gas early this time or just got my power back on, can't do this to me again!!!..
We also had the discussion about cooking our Thanksgiving turkey on the grill or in one of the Turkey Fryers. Actually, in the past I cooked a turkey on the smoker over charcole all night and it was fantastic. and I've had the fried turkey and it was great also. But it is nicer when you do it by choice not by force.
Even if it is bad new, please keep sending the links and information.
Thanks everyone.
Hi palmbeacher. How are you? Hello Everybody.
I was having a great morning (no
boss today) then I looked at these
links and now it's a bummer of a day.
well, Ill be back - gotta get my license...I lost it yesterday in my car (yes, in my car! I know it will show up after I get my replacement)....Ill be back later...unless theres a very long wait then I won't be back at all today. :-(
Hopefully, Ill be back...if not have a great weekend!
Stormy, you can do it online
only costs 10.00 and no lines!
I'm back, all I had to do was print the checks :-)
Palm, you are so lucky, no boss!!
He is on his way to New York.
Lucky me.
good morning everyone
Weatherdude, Don't look at any of the links! You'll get sick.
Hi weatherdude.
197. wpb05
wilma track??

honeslty, after 27 faded, I told my wife, oh, we are okay now
Hate...too late, I have already been looking at them
Hey Dude! How are ya!
hey palmbeacher
hey 21! I'm doing well, and you?
SYNOPSIS 1030 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005
LOW PRES JUST N OF NICARAGUA NEAR 16N86W 1006 MB
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NW THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN IS FORECAST TO
TURN NE AND APPROACH W CUBA SUN INTO MON. THE COMBINATION
BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUN. LOW PRES COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO GULF OF HONDURAS. WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW CARIBBEAN SAT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE MON AND TUE. A BROAD TROUGH E OF THE AREA WILL EXTEND S INTO NRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SAT AND THE NE CARIBBEAN SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
203. wpb05
I think with water temps and the speed it would be moving with the front coming down, we would only be looking at a TS, at least that is some good news.......just a rainy thanksgiving, watch football, etc.
What can I say, it's FRIDAY!! I'm doin' pretty darn well!!
FRIDAY! FRIDAY! FRIDAY!
WOOOOHOOOOOO!!!!
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

latest models. click on storm 27. This is disturbance in the caribbean
Weatherguru - not good..
The South Floridians do not neeed another one.. Good Grief!!
i live in south fl. I had charley go 30 miles north of us, and Wilma 30 miles to the south
Wow... I saw on tv where a guy had video taped Charley.. That hurricane was small, but fierce... The winds looked horrific!
At least they were in the daytime. The night hits are the worst..
We had the eyewall of Ivan and the eye of Dennis... Ivan was way worse than Dennis..
im in Ft myers fl i don't know if u you know where that is
There is a lot of cool water and wind shear between that thing and Florida. So the main effects would be heavy rain. that is a possibility even if it never organizes into a full-fledge ts.
Yeah, I know where it is Guru..
I'll be back in a little while.
not good at all...missed the beginning of the news.. don't know if anyone mentioned it
Currently banding of convection about 2/3 of the way around the center. As soon as it moves offshore and the main circ is completely over water a little more, the banding will likely wrap around, and because the circ and winds are matured, will skip TD and jump right to Gamma. Timing is good to coincide with the recon this aft. The phrase in italics is key. There have been a lot of comments in the past couple days that don't understand the definition of a TD requires organized convection. Until this happens we simply have an org low with disturbed weather. I think Cuba will get a whallop and after that I don't have the expertise to tell.
see ya in a bit 21
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
I'm designing greeting cards for our company.
arrgghhh... just tried to look at nhc satellite pix and the stupid pc turned itself off!!! they can't be that scary, can they? LOL
21, so I would say that you are having a REALLY HARD day lol
21, get back to work!lol
ok, have look at satellite and also your links above... now, is there anybody here with enough expertise to tell us what the storm is likely to do, especially in view of the fact that the cold front we were supposed to get has weakened? if i gotta get me one of those turkey fryers, i want to get it before a line forms... lol
Easy day :-)
lol mousey! I don't blame you
thats what I was thinking.
i was just getting ready to donate all my left-over hurricane canned and dry foods to the 'food for families' drive... now i feel like i better wait a week...
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W DRIFTING NW
WITH A SURFACE EXTENDING NE TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WHERE THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ARE ALSO MOVING NW.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS COMBINED ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85.5W TO 18N84W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM OFF THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N81W
INLAND OVER HONDURAS TO NEAR 15N87W. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INTO
SAT. EVEN IF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...HEAVY
RAINS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
231. wpb05
recon is in there right now.......i don't see it wrapping all the way around....i don't think anything more than TD right now
cgables.. ther's a new update:

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE HONDURAS COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN. CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY. HEAVY RAINS
RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.
Looks like Gamma could form soon.
ok Im back! :-)
I had to get my license today because I have to drive my neice around this weekend and last thing I want to do is get my first ticket because I didn't have a license....so its done. Whew!
Anyway, TGIF! I really don't need to be at work, but I thought I'd make up my hour that I lost (at work) and say HI :-)
235. wpb05
will at least be a TD this afternoon......question si if they will find 40+ winds there...at 26 right now, well north of center
Hi stormy.
where'd you find that mousey?
hey sub, hows your roof? :-)
My roof is ill. My roof doesn't want any rain. My roof may have to get over itself.
Hey stormy!!
And our insurance adjuster called and said "see you December 15th.".
So.... out comes the tarp. Now possibility of gusty winds, so, to tarp, or not to tarp? That is the question. I think Shakespeare said that once. If he didn't, that's only because he never lived in Flroida.
December 15th is a good day....it's my birthday!
WPB05... hope ya didn't jinx us with the comment you made to your wife. My husband wanted to take the plywood off the back of the house last weekend, I told him "no, not yet"...

RW.. at this point, heavy rain will be disasterous for many in South Florida.. I think I heard more roofs collapsed in N Miami last night with the rain..
It won't be much fun frying turkey in the rain will it?

I'd say the odds of this thing causing widespread power outages, etc. are pretty slim. So I wouldn't go get a turkey fryer just for that.
Well, in case I am not here (I probably will not be) Happy Birthday Weatherdude!
dang, sub, that s***s (you all read what you will ::VBG::

So what ARE we s'posed to get? Noon news says SAT not too bad, SUN-MON wet, after that wonderful. Where does the blob fit in to all of that?

DIE BLOB DIE!!!
Thank you sub
LMAO Sub...we really need to have that fix-your-roof party. :-)

Hey 65.....hows it going for you today?
sub, where will you be???
stormy, it is going well...getting ready to go eat my 'not free' lunch lol
Well, personally I am not yet too concerened. Only one major model does anything with "the blob" and that is the GFDL which has been overdoing td 27 from day one. If more models start to come into agreement, I will probably get some scuba gear and crawl into the fish tank until December.
you know, these blobs and this season have made me seriously violent...
It won't be any fun for those who have lost roofs, that's for sure. But as I said, I don't think it will result in widespread power outages. How many people in SFL are still w/out power from Wilma?
255. wpb05
winds up to around 30 and still north of center....at least a TD, maybe Gamma already
I may do that anyway. It sounds like fun.
257. wpb05
check that....now recorded 39 mph......wonder if it will be TD 27 or TD 28??
05, I'd say 27. The NHC mentioned "re-initiating advisories"
rd, according to FPL they have restored all customers. Any outages now due to private problems, i.e. from the meter in.
Of course, with all the flak about shoddy maintenance one will wonder what it will take to collapse any given part of the system...
sub, I had a dream I was swimming with my fish the night before one died... :-(
Be careful, shower good so you don't hurt the fish. LOL :-)
"shower good so you don't hurt the fish"
So what are you saying stormy?
Hey all, guess what I'm eating for lunch!!! Pizza, mmmmm
Hey Sub, how are you today?
cgables... it's at the nhc site under 'tropical discussion' the site is http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/181758.shtml?
Hey 21. I'm delirious, but that's about normal for me. And yourself?
65, well, I missed lunch today...gonna eat a banana :-)
LOL, pretty good!
ya, 21 rub it in...actually can you email me a peice? LOL
Im hungry....
So here is what the forecast office out of tallahassee is saying about next week: "QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY HAS CREPT INTO THE FCST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR SOME RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING UPPER LOW AND HOW IT MAY REACT WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FOR THE TIME BEING...BUMPED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR MONDAY...ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY SHOULD THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE."

In essence, this is saying that an upper low will pick up moisture from TD 27 or whatever you want to call it, and convert it into rain for much of the state. This would involve a large amount of shear that would rule out any really strong winds...but this would also mean lots of rain.
<) There ya go!
okay... for those of you who know more about the weather than i do (which may be most of you... lol) ... there are some things i don't see in the nhc statements... so here are some questions...

which way is the blob moving now?

what might possibly steer it in any given direction?

if it heads towards the keys, for example, what time frame might we be looking at?

thanks for any insight you can give...

mousey
rwd - so you think we should just "act" like its a part of the cold front? (like how cool it got after Wilma?)
::VBG:: Mousey, I'd evidently found that product but somehow it was still old... Thanks for confirming!!!
thanks 21 :-)....feeling less hungry now.
Mousy, the discussion says the blob is "drifting northwest". The eventual steering of this would be based on the upper level winds. Earlier there was an upper high in the gulf that was steering TD 27 to the west. The flow is clockwise around a high, counterclockwise around a low. The forecast is that a upper level low pressure trough will pick it up and send it to the east or northeast.

I find the water vapor loop is a good satellite image to look at to see upper features and winds. dark areas are dry air.

Link
i think this would be more like an enhanced cold front and less like a hurricane, yes. it is late november after all.
277. OGal
Hey Rw, look at the dry air over Dr. Jeff. That is a terrific link. Thanks
TWC didn't give it much time at all just now...
the convection doesn't seem quite as fierce, however some good fanning out...
What the heck do I know? LOL,
DIE BLOB DIE!!!
::sigh:: back to work... gotta earn a living... Later All!!!
rw... thanks for your reply... but that link makes the atlantic ocean thingy look scary... lol
My hopes is that it will get sheared to death and just cause a little rain in FL (except over Subtropics house, he needs one big umbrella LOL)
ok, i gotta go argue with a lawyer... bbl
bye cg and mousey :-)
Big umbrella lol. I hadn't thought of that stormy. Maybe that's the answer I have been searching for! Ok I am outta here. Take care everyone. For those who won't be here because it's the weekend, have a good weekend.
285. wpb05
no vortex because it is a TD at best right now.....look for TD 27 to be back up an running at 4 or 5
A 30-image loop makes it look like the thing's getting badly sheared; the cloud tops seem to be getting blown off to the north...
Bye sub...

And I am outta here too....I made up my hour now. :-)

Have a wonderful weekend everyone!
I should have known. I've taken next week off to put up the outside Christmas decorations. Whatever this system does or doesn't evolve into, it looks like there'll at least be a bit of rain in SW Florida. Annoying thing about this system is its proximity and the uncertainty or its evolution and track, and it'll take about another day or so before the models/NHC have a better handle on all the atmospheric players that will determine where she goes.
289. dcw
"A 30-image loop makes it look like the thing's getting badly sheared; the cloud tops seem to be getting blown off to the north..."

That's it's outflow. Very impressive for a TD/TS. Recon reported 45kt FL winds with ex-27.
that system is starting to wrap the storms around its center just north of Honduras, looking like a borderline depression.
I just saw it on NASA, the dry area to the South and Southeast of the center may be filling in a little bit with more showers and thunderstorms
292. wpb05
we have a TS

Hello Gamma
We may have TS if it keeps intensifying like it has today, we have had too much in South Florida, no more storms please. I just got my power yesterday
294. wpb05
recon found 54 mph
boca, why so long? FPL said all was restored.
At 10k flight level??
wpb, sustained or gusts?
I live at FAU, and our dorm has been out since the storm
boca, that had to be miserable!!!
300. wpb05
sustained....flying at 1000 feet
all quadrants?
DIE BLOB DIE!!!
wow!!! 1000 ft? AT least a depression!!!!!!
TWC says no definite circulation yet while stronger winds are being found.
later all
That IS a depression... It has to be..
Yeah, my dorm got hit hard!!!!!!!! Were on a seperate grid at the University, so weve been on a generator until yesterday, and I finally had AC last night and hot water!!!!! I had the best night sleep!
lol, Boca - I know that feeling all to well!
yeah, I'm from up in that area, I moved down here when I was 18, 2 years ago, to go to college, but I respect the Gulf and the Panhandle, the Gulf is very Gamey, you never know
Yeah, it is! I'm used to it though.. I'm goin to school up here. :-) PJC

this is one of the latest computer models
check this out

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_27.gif
Weather station in Roatan, Honduras has recorded a gust of 60mph and sustained winds of 45mphLink
so at 5:00 do we think it will be a depression? or even possibly gamma? the latest model runs are not good for south florida. ughhhh!
guru....... aacckkk! not good...
cregnebaa,
how did you find that station? pressure is falling rapidly there too
tell me about it i live ft myers

i think we have gamma
i was also looking at more graphs, and where this system is it has a potential to generate to a cat 3-5 storm. here is the link
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
top graph shows possible pressure
bottom graph shows possible intensity
I just went to the main home page and saw "Tropical Storm Gamma" has been formed and named. Just skipped the TD phase......

Now we officially have "Gamma"


Here's what the Miami forecast discussion says...very interesting. Doesn't look like you'll need an umbrella on Thanskgiving based on this...

THERE IS A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT DEVELOPING WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REDEVELOPING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE PRESENT TIME, THIS SYSTEM WILL AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE THE SYSTEM GETS NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA. THEN THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH. COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL BE DELIGHTFUL TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING.
I've been in meetings for the past hour or so and return to my office to find "Gamma" is official.

Now does anyone know where she is going; still the same with those links from this morning?

I guess Shaun will update this blog soon to fill us all in.

Gamma (the good one)
don't know whether to swear or have a drink... maybe both... looking at those models, it would be here when? two and a half days? i really feel sorry for you guys with roof problems... this is ridiculous...
Looks like it very well may hit florida. sorry guys. good news is, no indication it will be anything stronger than a TS. if it manages to strenghten more, it would probably draw the cold front down quicker, which would keep it away.
guru... that's scary...
i think both is the answer.
lots of shear around, so if it does go north it will have a very difficult time strengthening.

Link
JUST OUT FROM NHC: HELLO GAMMA
Tropical Storm GAMMA Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 182033
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN RE-GENERATES...BECOMES TROPICAL
STORM GAMMA...

AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. THE
GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 3 PM CST...2100Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...NORTH OF
LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 190 MILES... 300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

GAMMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER
RE-FORMS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPORTED
THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN
BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND
THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...16.4 N... 85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM EST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


the only scary thing is they have been great with path but terrible with intensity. Anyone that believes wilma was a cat 1 did not sit in a house as it passed over. I hope we only have to deal with a tropical storm.
gamma will have to sit still if she wants to intensify. right now she is in the most favorable area around. any movement north and that changes.
I vote for anything that will keep it away..
GFS shows it going over cuba....
Oh my..
She's only moving at 5 mph
I don't believe my eyeballs!!!
Link
Look guys...

Link
Pensacola - how do you get that NHC info - it doesn't show up on the NHC website yet?
Turtle should be updating in an hour... can't wait to hear his thoughts...
NHC is now forecasting a 65 mph Gamma on Monday in the same path as Wilma. When will this ever end.
Patty - I just clicked on it and it showed up.. I think they are still putting the info. up on the site..
Interesting - I keep clicking on the site and the info is still not up
IS Gamma a boy or a girl? or is it a he-she?
no time to make plans... mobile home tie-downs are loose and it's sitting crooked on its blocks thanks to wilma... will it stand up to TS force winds? we shall soon find out...
Hi all. I can not believe the path shown for this storm. I feel so sorry for all the people with tarps and roof damage.
Not sure why Patty..
Matilda - Maybe both, lol
mousey, I'm praying it isn't a wind event for you. Either way it'll be a rain event, poor sub and his roof.
Damned thing didn't pay any attention to me.
DIE TS GAMMA DIE!!!
(have to clarify which Gamma...)
348. dcw
Gamma is neuter. And wow, didn't expect to have a TS for thanksgiving.
Hi guys. I know that Gamma just formed, so for those that care, I made a major update to my blog on the tornado outbreak on Tuesday. 7 more tornadoes were added, for a total of 30, with several significant (F2-F5) tornadoes.
windnwaves, it COULD. whether it does or not is another question...
windnwaves I figured you would come back into the light. What have you been hiding from? Did you have a big depo that you had to prep or were you working on removing the spyware from a secretary's computer?
Just a tropical storm could knock the power out here for a week or more. Great.
Amazing It's Wilma the Second
So was it TD 27 or 28 Looks as if it was 27 ???
356. dcw
"Amazing It's Wilma the Second"

Not a chance in hell. The water temps are 6-7 degress lower, shear is higher and it doesn't have as long.
Storms rarely reach their potential as shown on those maps (see the link) It's certainly not out of the question that this thing would lose tropical identity completely in the next 3 days.


Link
no i know im just saying the track is very similar
I am taking my ball and going home. Charlie, Wilma, GAMMA????? Unbelievable. At least I kept the plywood and still have 20 gallons for the generator.
Nice Chart there RW
It's nice that the people who make the "potential" maps are honest enough to put that chart up.
they totally skipped the TD27 or 28 part I guess to eliminate any confusion and just jumped to TS Gamma...

That may be why they waited so long, they did not want a TD to deal with the number...perhaps???
mousey, I hope your home will be ok - and mine too, along with everyone else's!
2005, no one will ever forget this year.
windnwaves why would a highly educated uber lawyer/IT Temp watch such trash as Category 7: The End fo the World. I figured you would have far more important things to spend yout time doing like reporting warm core systems to the National Hurricane Center.
365. dcw
No, read the public advisory. It says TD27 regenerates...becomes Tropical Storm Gamma.
will this hurricane season ever end?

What noone is talking about except accuweather, is that the upper level low in the atlantic may become a sub tropical storm as it drifts westward it may take on more tropical characteristics
i hav updated my blog
mousey, you sure you can't get somewhere besides a unsecured mobile home for this? do you have a battery powered radio for potential tornado warnings?
I give up. I vow to never wash the pool deck again. The boat is up for sale for real,so I pray nothing happens to to it. It went in the paper today but is not covered or tied down. This is the gods honest truth. We bought this boat for a steal from my parents last year 5 weeks after Charley hit us. The make model of the boat..... Hurricane 2004. Does it get any better? LOL I was going to start getting the outdoor Christmas stuff out. So its all over the garage and will have to be moved to put vehicles in. I am so sick and tired of tropical weather. Lets hope it gets sheared and dies so no one has to deal with Gamma. A word of advice to anyone who has roof damage from Wilma and has not talked to their insurance adjuster. All damage was from Wilma. You will get screwed over so bad if it involves another named storm. Oh the lessons we learn.
the waves in the area are reaching 12 to 13 ft
actually, guru, it has been mentioned a couple of times on TWC. It is mentioned in the trop weather updates and our local guys have mentioned it. However, you're right in that noone seems to give it much importance so far.
TWC says this is an amazing season... no kidding...
the gal says Gamma kind of snuck up on us??? Say WHAT???
Not forecast to become a hurricane but MON afternoon as a TS over So FL...
I just checked the local news on line and they are still leaving open the chance it will get sheared off before hitting us. I sure hope so. I was planning on getting my Christmas boxes out of the attic this weekend also. Guess I won't now! LOL
Don Noe says it might disappear and go away due to the front causing alot of shear and morph into part of the front. We aren't s'posed to get overly excited. ARGH!!!
We will get rain, SUN-MON...
there was definitely more water damage to roofs causing more folks to become homeless. more rain, just what is needed. ::sigh:: Our house clearly will be fine. Maybe we'll lose power again, I don't trust FPL, but oh well...
Dissipation is a real possibility...and i'm sure that's everyone's favored scenario.
SWFLKR- A good point about the insurance, most people don't realize that their deductibles are a "per storm" kinda thing. A lot of people found that out the hard way last year. You might be able to fork out the $$$ for your deductible once in a year, but most people can't afford to do it two or three times....
379. dcw
12 ft waves? That's no TS!
rwd YES!!! DIE TS GAMMA DIE!!! If we start a mantra of it or something, would THAT work??? Am getting manic on the subject...
elliston, you and SWFLKR aren't kidding. It became a real nightmare for too many folks.
gablesgal, I do so appreciate your specifying that you are trying to kill off "TS GAMMA" !!!! not me!!! LOLOL
Thanks
Go to www.fldfs.com to read about the two deductible problem. Should be okay, at least that is what I got out of it.
hie everyone, hard to believe we are dealing with TS Gamma in the 2nd half of November.

Anyhow, now's you chance at fame and immortality. I'm going to track people's predictions for lowest pressure of the storm again (like we did for (Beta and Wilma), so unwrap your crystal balls, fire up the computer, read the tea leaves or whatever and give me your fearless predictions for the lowest pressure that NHC posts for Gamma before it dissipates. I'll collect predictions from here and lefty's blog, update the list a few times a day and we'll see how it goes.

I predict a minimum pressure of 965 mb, and LakeWorthFinn is going for 972 mb...
982
snowboy, I think I left my on lefty's blog. it was something like 983 (I think)..please add it to your list.
Link Here is the link to the actual article. Sorry I just posted the site at first.
Yeah and I just got a letter from Nationwide today saying that the time frame for insurance companies to not be able to cancel your policy is up tomorrow. They sent a letter right after Wilma saying they couldn't cancel for a certain time frame and now it ends. Charley was the only claim I have ever put in on insurance in my life besides health insurance. They threatend to cancel me if I put in any more claims and any non act of god claims will cause very high rate increase for two years per incident. Is a fire an act of God? LOL They also changed the water damage part of the policy. It only covers a said amount due to water damage from roof leaks or via windows blown in. Makes you sick after paying such high premiums all these years in Florida. To think I left Broward County 2 months before Charley hit for a calmer life. Too funny. Anyways my heart goes out to all over on the East Coast. I have so many friends and fond memories over there. I hate to see anyone suffer from these storms but the places I have lived in Florida hold a special place in my heart even thoguh I moved to SWFL. Lets hope we don't lose power again too.
I say 974
I'm gonna guess higher, 988 mb. it will get more wound up with a lower pressure after it becomes non-tropical and races up the front.
got em sngalla and seflagamma
Don Noe, thinks very nasty rainy windy period... by TUES should be very nice thru Thanksgiving. But cautions that is still a developing situation. And of course, the moisture is already entrained... we have NASCAR in Homestead and the big football game... gonna be damp...
Gamma, being SURE to clarify which one right now!!! ROFLOL!!!
When Frances & Jean came close to Gainesville, FL last year we had sustained winds of around 45 MPH, gust maybe to 60. Power was knocked for 3-4 days at my moms house. People may want to make preparations on cooking the turkey from a gas grill or something.
SWFLKR, I hear you about ins cos, they think they rule and are allowed to. And if you try to go in with Citizen's who HAS to take you, the premiums are up the wazoo. Really stinks.
396. OGal
Has anyone seen Jim Cantore??????
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES GAMMA A LITTLE STRONGER...

...SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH.

FORECASTER KNABB
rwd... i will get out, even for a TS... i can't take any chances with the place destabilized... but i may not have a home to come back to... oh, well, life goes on and i don't give up...
snowboy,

I know you only mentioned pressures, but landfall Monroe/Collier county line, 60-65mph winds, Monday 1 PM, 980mb
LOL Ogal, let us know, so we can adjust Gamma's track!
The winners of snowboys last contest on Beta were:
DocNDswamp and weatherspirit
Has anyone seen Jim Cantore??????

I am having a beer with him right now in Cape Coral.
Dr Masters has a new post up for Gamma
cgables,

I have Citizens because I live east of I-95 in Broward County and you're right. Premiums ARE rediculous and they want to increase it another 15% or more.
i'm going for 972mb
oakland... the worst is that citizens wants those of us who are insured by other companies to pay them a fee!!! why should i pay them? it's ridiculous...
Snowboy put me in for 945-990mb
snowboy~ 963mb