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Disturbance 98L probably no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:46 PM GMT on September 18, 2009

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, and has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity overnight. This morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1) shows a complete, circular wind pattern around the low pressure center of 98L, but top winds were only 25 mph. Wind shear is moderate, about 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

The global computer models predict differing amounts of wind shear in the path of 98L as it moves west-northwest at 10 mph over the next three days. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models do not develop 98L, while the NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF do. The models that do develop 98L predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. Given the moderate or higher wind shear in 98L's path, and dry air to the northwest, the system should develop only slowly. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away, near 25N 66W, about 900 miles east of Florida. Wind shear is 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and there is very dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and it will have a tough time regenerating with so much dry air and wind shear. The remains of Fred should move over Florida Monday night or Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning QuickSCAT image of the Atlantic, showing the well-defined surface circulation of disturbance 98L. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

One year anniversary of Hurricane Ike
I've been focusing this week on the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, but we also passed the one year anniversary of Hurricane Ike. Many areas along the Texas and Louisiana coast affected by Ike have fully recovered, but recovery efforts will still take many more years in other areas. In Galveston, which suffered $3.2 billion in damage, 75% of the businesses have reopened, and 95% of the population has returned. Boston.com has posted a very nice series of clickable images that show before and after scenes of some of the areas that have recovered from Hurricane Ike.

Ike washed away huge sections of beach and dunes that helped protect the Texas coast from more serious damage, and this week the state legislature approved $135 million in funds to help replace these critical natural protection systems. The restored beaches will probably last ten years, barring another strike by a hurricane of Ike's stature. Texas considers two-thirds of its 367-mile shoreline to be critically eroding, which it defines as a historical rate of more than 2 feet a year. Much of this erosion can be blamed on sea level rise. Global sea level rose seven inches over the past century, and is expected to rise at least that much over the coming century.


Figure 2. Villagers in Haiti plant one of their "Million Tree Campaign" trees. Image credit: Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Hurricane relief donations
There hasn't been a need for new hurricane-related disaster relief efforts this year, in stark contrast to 2008. However, the charities we rely on to provide disaster relief still require funds to operate in quiet years, and I encourage you to consider a donation at this time to one of my two favorite disaster relief charities. Portlight.org, which was very effective at helping out isolated, under-served communities in the wake of Hurricane Ike, is committed to raising $12,000 to purchase and outfit a mobile kitchen. This kitchen will be capable of feeding up to 2,000 people two hot meals per day in post-disaster situations. The Lambi Fund of Haiti has launched its "Million Tree Campaign", which aims to use local labor to plant a million trees over the next three years along severely deforested slopes in Haiti. Both of these charities wrote to me several times last year about the stunning generosity readers of this blog showed with their donations. Thanks!

Twenty years ago today
As Hurricane Hugo approached the U.S. Virgin Islands in the early morning hours of September 18, 1989, the storm slowed down to 10 mph. The slower speed allowed Hugo to punish the island of St. Croix with the worst beating of any location along the hurricane's destructive path. At 2am local time on September 18, 1989, Hurricane Hugo's eyewall struck St. Croix, bringing incredibly ferocious Category 4 winds, sustained at 140 mph. The hurricane's gusts were remarkably violent, and many residents witnessed tornado-like vorticies barreling across the island as the hurricane raged about them. A storm surge of 2 - 3 feet, topped by battering waves 20 - 23 feet high, assaulted the coast, adding to the destruction. Wunderground member Mike Steers wrote me to describe his experience on St. Croix: "Hugo was incredible. Many vortexes came in that night. The roar and intensity of the winds that night were incredible. When the eyewall came over, we were forced to take refuge in the bathroom as the rest of the house came apart. The pressure was so low outside the house that all of the water was sucked out of the toilet and an air draft was created through the toilet. Just when I thought it was as bad as it would get, the intensity of it all dialed up even higher. Dozens and dozens of times, my ears would violently pop due to rapid pressure changes. The next morning, of course, the devastation was unbelievable. In my front yard was a 18-foot boat with an outboard on it, that had been picked up from a marina two miles away. I had lost my house, and job, the Seaplane company I was a pilot for. After a couple months, I had to leave everything behind. In some respects, after 20 years, there an many aspects of the society that have yet to recover". Two people were killed on St. Croix, 80 injured, and 90% of the buildings were damaged or destroyed. Damage estimates for St. Croix were astronomical, over $1 billion, and the island's entire infrastructure was virtually wiped out. Six weeks after the hurricane, only 25% of the public roads had been cleared, and only 25% of the island had power.


Figure 3. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 18, 1989. Note the lack of cloud cover on the hurricane's southwest side, indicating that strong upper-level winds from the southwest were likely creating wind shear, weakening the storm. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

As Hugo departed St. Croix, strong upper-level winds from the southwest created wind shear that weakened the storm to a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. The upper level winds also caused Hugo to accelerate to 15 mph and turn more northwest. The eye passed over Puerto Rico's Vieques Island at 8am and over Fajardo on the extreme northeastern tip of Puerto Rico at 9am. On Culebra Island, an island twelve miles east of Fajardo, a gust to 170 mph was recorded by the ship Night Cap in the main harbor. The south-facing harbor received sustained southerly winds in excess of 120 mph for several hours as Hugo roared by to the south. The resulting wave "set-up" created a storm surge in excess of 13 feet in the supposedly hurricane-proof harbor. A large portion of the Caribbean's charter boat fleet, some 200 boats, was sheltering in Culebra's harbor, and 136 of these boats were badly damaged or sunk. Over 80% of the wooden structures on both Culebra and Vieques were destroyed.


Figure 4. Damage on St. Croix (two top photos), Culebra Island (bottom right), and Puerto Rico's Roosevelt Roads Navy Base (bottom left), after Hurricane Hugo. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

Along the northeastern coast of Puerto Rico, waves up to ten feet high riding on top of a 3 - 4 foot storm surge caused severe coastal flooding of low-lying areas. Hugo's winds tore into Puerto Rico's El Yunque rainforest, downing thousands of trees. The agricultural sector was devastated, with nearly all of the island's banana and coffee crops wiped out. Twelve deaths in Puerto Rico were attributed to Hugo, six of which occurred in the southern city of Guayama where some residents were electrocuted by downed power lines. Nearly 28,000 people were left homeless by the storm, and damage to the island exceeded $1 billion.

Storm chaser Michael Laca was at Luquillo Beach on the northeast shore of Puerto Rico, and has posted a remarkable 28-minute video on YouTube of Hurricane Hugo footage.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. IKE
Looks like the NHC has Fred moving west now...MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Buenos Nachos everyone
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the NHC had Fred moving west now...MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
thanks for getting this character back on track hopefully it does amount to much so much warm water in the far western atllantic natures way to cool it off
1504. WxLogic
Well... Fred remnants still on that WNW track as expected. As per the latest 09Z Steering... the High currently over the Great Lakes is starting to move E and replace the trough currently exiting the E CONUS:



Quoting IKE:


Key West is saying the opposite.....

"MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE VARIOUS MODEL RUNS...00Z
NAM...00Z GFS...AND 00Z ECMWF BRING EITHER AN INVERTED TROUGH OR A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE(ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF FRED) ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT."....


And Melbourne,FL....

"INVERTED TROUGH (REMNANT WAVE FROM FRED) IS FORECAST TO PASS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AROUND TUE."

If Fred can slow down and take a more NW movement then SC/NC will be the target areas. It's north enough that if it does hit Florida it will most likely be the mid to northern coast and not the south end. Fred would have to move more w to wsw soon and stay on that course. I always pay more attention to what the ECMWF says :) IF and IF it were to stall out near the gulfstream and move more north this could become a dangerous situation down the road.(5-10kt shear and anticyclone in place)
1506. unf97
It appears that the low level center of ex-Fred is near 27.5 N 69.5 W .


FREDacity:

1 : the quality or state of being FREDacious- a: intrepid boldness b: bold or arrogant disregard of normal restraints
2 a: not easily pulled apart : cohesive b: tending to adhere or cling especially to another substance
3 a: persistent in maintaining, adhering to, or seeking something valued or desired

CRS
1508. WxLogic
Well... correction... is moving W. Appears I didn't watch the Sat loops long enough.

Also 06Z NAM seems to have shifted back S a bit... but still showing a good bulk of moisture being surged northward:

1510. unf97
Quoting markymark1973:

If Fred can slow down and take a more NW movement then SC/NC will be the target areas. It's north enough that if it does hit Florida it will most likely be the mid to northern coast and not the south end. Fred would have to move more w to wsw soon. I always pay more attention to what the ECMWF says :) IF and IF it were to stall out near the gulfstream and move more north this could become a dangerous situation down the road.(5-10kt shear and anticyclone in place)


I'm thinking on the same theme as you here. It appears that if ex-Fred redevelops and stays on its W-NW track, then areas from the East Central/NE FL coast northward will have the prime effects from it. I'm in Jax, so I definitely am watching it carefully.
So it seems that 98L most likely will become TD 8 by today or tommorow.
I give it a 70-90% chance of it becoming a TD by Sunday, and a 50-70% chance of becoming a TS by Monday.
Also, the latest Dvorak numbers are at 2.0/2.0 for 98L, so most likely TD by 11am, 5pm, or 11pm.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

FREDacity:

1 : the quality or state of being FREDacious- a: intrepid boldness b: bold or arrogant disregard of normal restraints
2 a: not easily pulled apart : cohesive b: tending to adhere or cling especially to another substance
3 a: persistent in maintaining, adhering to, or seeking something valued or desired

CRS


one two and three. Is that a non sheared storm I see over EXFREDEX
1514. unf97
StormW, will you have an updated analysis shortly on ex-Fred and 98L?
1516. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Nrt.. Based on the latest QS... Fred's remnants sure have come together over night and appears to be quite closed.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas87.png
1519. WxLogic
Today's scheduled flights which sure look quite sure to happen:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0107A INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.0N 70.8W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A FRED
C. 20/0200Z
D. 26.8N 72.0W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Fred trying to make a comeback

September 19, 8:00 AM
Raleigh Weather ExaminerAllan Huffman


We have been following the remnant low of Fred across the Atlantic all week and it has been showing intermittent bursts of storms and organization here and there but nothing to really write home about. The convection this morning however is looking a bit better as we have seen a nice burst. The wind shear has finally let up some and the remnants of Fred may be in an atmospheric environment a little more conducive to development. However none of the major global models are showing any re-development. I have attached the latest hurricane models and their intensity forecast and as you can see most also don%u2019t show significant development. However, if something did re-develop here it could head for Florida. So we need to keep an eye on it today and see if this convective burst means anything.


.....more...Link
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Update


Many times we live close to places and we don't bother to learn anything about them. Thank you for teaching me something about my neighbor islands.
Quoting WxLogic:


Nrt.. Based on the latest QS... Fred's remnants sure have come together over night and appears to be quite closed.


Yes, that QuikScat looked much better than I expected, much more organized.
1524. 789
Quoting StormW:


Fred has been reading my synospses! LOL!!
yes he has good morning knight stormW sir
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes, that QuikScat looked much better than I expected, much more organized.


2nd that.
Good morning!

Quoting palmasdelrio:


Many times we live close to places and we don't bother to learn anything about them. Thank you for teaching me something about my neighbor islands.


Your welcome and anytime.
Well Organized 98L


Becoming Better organized FredEx.
LOL. Fred...thing keeps going and going and going...
Quoting VortMax1969:
Fred trying to make a comeback

September 19, 8:00 AM
Raleigh Weather ExaminerAllan Huffman


We have been following the remnant low of Fred across the Atlantic all week and it has been showing intermittent bursts of storms and organization here and there but nothing to really write home about. The convection this morning however is looking a bit better as we have seen a nice burst. The wind shear has finally let up some and the remnants of Fred may be in an atmospheric environment a little more conducive to development. However none of the major global models are showing any re-development. I have attached the latest hurricane models and their intensity forecast and as you can see most also don%u2019t show significant development. However, if something did re-develop here it could head for Florida. So we need to keep an eye on it today and see if this convective burst means anything.


.....more...Link
This guy seems more sensible than that other quote posted earlier from that other place. Reports what's been happening, suggests a possibility, says "wait and see"...

Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
So it seems that 98L most likely will become TD 8 by today or tommorow.
I give it a 70-90% chance of it becoming a TD by Sunday, and a 50-70% chance of becoming a TS by Monday.
Also, the latest Dvorak numbers are at 2.0/2.0 for 98L, so most likely TD by 11am, 5pm, or 11pm.
exfred will become a TD someday, some way, OK
I don't know y'all but Fredex is a ne
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

25.5 / 70
This is what they should be posting to indicate FredEx's position instead of that innocuous brown line:



That system just keeps going and going....
Double 07L is finally getting its act together and 98L soon to be 08L.

Quoting BahaHurican:
This is what they should be posting to indicate FredEx's position instead of that innocuous brown line:



That system just keeps going and going....

Lol! That's so true.
Quoting StormW:


Probably a little later this morning. I usually don't update on the weekend...but with stuff going on...I'll probably update.

For a quick take...Fred should continue to become slowly better organized, and has a window of about 24-30 hours of somewhat conducive conditions. I prefer the northern end of the Dynamic model suite.

98L...should continue to slowly organize, however, should begin to encounter some shear in about 48 hours. Based on updated steering forecast maps, I have to go right now with the BAMS and BAMM.

hey Storm, all the models have 98 going north.. the bamms also but at what seems a slower pace... what are the future models, lets say 5-7 days, pointing at. A continued weakness or any building?
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is what they should be posting to indicate FredEx's position instead of that innocuous brown line:



That system just keeps going and going....


lol...true that
One week ago today:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST SAT SEP 12 2009

...
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FRED.

Interesting write up on Ole' Freddy Boy at...

Crown Weather
Good morning Senior Chief, 456, Ameister!

nrtiwlnvragn: thank you very much for the link to the 1851 to current hurricane tracks pdf yesterday. I downloaded and saved the 417mb version.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good morning Senior Chief, 456, Ameister!

nrtiwlnvragn: thank you very much for the link to the 1851 to current hurricane tracks pdf yesterday. I downloaded and saved the 417mb version.


No problem. Is the 417mb version that much more detailed in the graphics?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
One week ago today:TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST SAT SEP 12 2009

...
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FRED.


Possible during the next day or two there will be advisory number 22.
Quoting InTheCone:
Interesting write up on Ole' Freddy Boy at... Crown Weather
This is our boy reedzone, isn't it? or some other blogger? I associate crownwx w/ a blogger....
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good morning Senior Chief, 456, Ameister!

nrtiwlnvragn: thank you very much for the link to the 1851 to current hurricane tracks pdf yesterday. I downloaded and saved the 417mb version.


morning
1549. Dakster
As long as Fred doesn't become Andrew's little brother...
Recon leaves at 1500Z, what time is that EDT? Sorry, I should know this by now.
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is our boy reedzone, isn't it? or some other blogger? I associate crownwx w/ a blogger....


Yes we do have a blogger associated with crownwx but the user is "crownwx"
1552. DDR
Good morning all
Beautiful morning in Trinidad,sun is shining for now.

456 Have you seen Pottery on the blog lately?
1500z = 1100edt.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon leaves at 1500Z, what time is that EDT? Sorry, I should know this by now.


11am
Quoting StormW:


Weakness...of course the steering has changed, though not greatly, 3 times in the past 3 runs.

PSU e-WALL STEERING FORECAST

Tanks... btw im putting up my shutters today because a nekkid swirl might be visiting on Monday night... hopefully he has no clothes on
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is our boy reedzone, isn't it? or some other blogger? I associate crownwx w/ a blogger....


No, it is not Reedzone, he does occasionally blog here as Crownwx(I thnk that is the handle he uses)

Good catch there on the upper steering, Senior Chief!
Quoting DDR:
Good morning all
Beautiful morning in Trinidad,sun is shining for now.
456 Have you seen Pottery on the blog lately?


No, can I have a link. Thanks

Also i saw ur question. Is it a possibility that Trinidad formed from Venezuela. Looking at a map one would think that i came from from there.
Quoting Weather456:


Yes we do have a blogger associated with crownwx but the user is "crownwx"
Thanks, 456. I knew it was somebody.... lol... the aged head is showing...

That blogger usually has sensible things to say, anyway.
This is irony to the highest level.

Fred was once expected to head out to sea.
1561. DDR
Quoting Weather456:


No, can I have a link. Thanks

Also i saw ur question. Is it a possibility that Trinidad formed from Venezuela. Looking at a map one would think that i came from from there.

Thanks a link to his blog i dont have,i havent seen him in a while
1562. IKE
Should be interesting watching what happens with drop-dead Fred today. System looks as good as it's looked in days.

Will check back in a bit on Freddie boy.....

Quoting Weather456:
This is irony to the highest level.

Fred was once expected to head out to sea.


Just goes to show why there is so much interest and fascination with tropical weather, sometimes it just does the craziest things!

You have done an excellent job keeping up with this crazy season, I have really enjoyed all of your input this year!
1559:

"There is no chance of Fred moving past 40w..."
Quoting Weather456:
This is irony to the highest level.

Fred was once expected to head out to sea.
I was trying to explain that to my mum last night... lol

Someone commented earlier about how if things were better Fred "might have been" a major.... guess it's been so long since Fred's "youthful prodigy" days that pple have forgotten he was a major only a couple hundred miles from the CVs.... lol

What makes me laugh is how ppl were saying that Fred was never going to leave Africa... lol.... think he was offended and decided to become a world traveler instead.... ;o)
Quoting Weather456:
This is irony to the highest level.

Fred was once expected to head out to sea.


yeah lol, fred at first wasn't expected to go farther than 35 west, now its at 70
Quoting StormW:


Yea...it's Rob from crownwx. Pretty sharp.



He is, we had a nice discussion back in late July on 98L. We both agreed it would become an invest but not so much a tropical one.

Quoting Weather456:
This is irony to the highest level.

Fred was once expected to head out to sea.


Fred was expected to be dissipated by an apparently irresistible combination of wind shear, dry air and marginal ssts.

DDR, I think I chatted w/ pottery briefly on, say, Wednesday? Haven't seen him much the last little while....
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is what they should be posting to indicate FredEx's position instead of that innocuous brown line:



That system just keeps going and going....


exactly what I was thinking!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


No problem. Is the 417mb version that much more detailed in the graphics?


The track charts are the same, it was the tables I had trouble reading, unlike the tracking charts, they were set up two to a page and too small for my bad eyes. They blurred past 100%, now they don't. Thanks again.
Quoting IKE:
Should be interesting watching what happens with drop-dead Fred today. System looks as good as it's looked in days.

Will check back in a bit on Freddie boy.....

Well the furthest west I expected Fred to come was 65W and even thought it could of threatened Bermuda.

Now look at this interesting rule that one should of picked up.

"A storm will do a left turning or stair step motion if there is a quick succession of troughs in the upper westerlies."

This was forecast to happen when Fred was a major and it did occur, but still the forecast was for Fred to go out to sea.

This should of been seen coming. Listen to the rules. lol
Technically all the other comments are still right. Unless and until there is a genuine regeneration of Fred, Fred DID die out in the CAtl.... it's like the person is dead, but u have a well-preserved body of the former person sitting in the same old chair in your den..... a mere remnant of the person....

I have to agree with those who have said this has been an interesting season...
Quoting Dakster:
As long as Fred doesn't become Andrew's little brother...
Quoting Dakster:
As long as Fred doesn't become Andrew's little brother...



Or Wilma's spouse.
Quoting IKE:
Should be interesting watching what happens with drop-dead Fred today. System looks as good as it's looked in days.

Will check back in a bit on Freddie boy.....


with quiksat and this sat view it looks like there convection around the center for once..... when I read quiksat i figured 25.5 & 70 .....
What are the models reflecting on Fred this morning?
Quoting yonzabam:


Fred was expected to be dissipated by an apparently irresistible combination of wind shear, dry air and marginal ssts.



well by some, but I did not expected Fred to completely dissipated even when it was a major.
is that 11ast or 11est recons departure intensity models?
1582. DDR
Quoting BahaHurican:
DDR, I think I chatted w/ pottery briefly on, say, Wednesday? Haven't seen him much the last little while....

Thanks Baha,im out everyone have a good day
Hahahah...

Southeastern Louisiana @ Ole Miss 6:30pm.

This out to be a sleeper. Ole Miss' cheerleaders could beat them...
Both Andrew & Katrina did the little dance that Fred is doing. Not that I believe that Fred will develop into a major hurricane - more to the point they meandered across the Atlantic, got written off several times, and then got their act together closer to land. Andrew was further out than Katrina, but Katrina didn't even begin to be much more than a depression until about 90 miles off the coast. It then came ashore and headed more south due to the high building in.

Moral of this story - need to keep an eye on this, as that 90 miles of water closest to Florida has lots of food for Fred.
Quoting StormW:


nice outflow going on.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Technically all the other comments are still right. Unless and until there is a genuine regeneration of Fred, Fred DID die out in the CAtl.... it's like the person is dead, but u have a well-preserved body of the former person sitting in the same old chair in your den..... a mere remnant of the person....

I have to agree with those who have said this has been an interesting season...


I think we should save this -- great imagery!
Quoting zoomiami:
Both Andrew & Katrina did the little dance that Fred is doing. Not that I believe that Fred will develop into a major hurricane - more to the point they meandered across the Atlantic, got written off several times, and then got their act together closer to land. Andrew was further out than Katrina, but Katrina didn't even begin to be much more than a depression until about 90 miles off the coast. It then came ashore and headed more south due to the high building in.

Moral of this story - need to keep an eye on this, as that 90 miles of water closest to Florida has lots of food for Fred.
Katrina was the one that actually became a TS over the Central Bahamas. She was a shock to just about everybody from here to the FL coast.... AT least w/ Andrew we had a couple of days to prepare...
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090919 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 41.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 40.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


SHIPS Text
Quoting InTheCone:


No, it is not Reedzone, he does occasionally blog here as Crownwx(I thnk that is the handle he uses)

Good catch there on the upper steering, Senior Chief!


Me as another blogger? I've never been banned to be another blogger, nice try guys ;)
Agreed Baha - had a lot of damage from Katrina as a Cat 1, but prior to landfall they were saying it was barely going to be a TS.

Do you realize that we really only had about 36 hours notice with Andrew? In today's world we gripe about the 3 day. Once Andrew started moving it just zipped on in.
Quoting reedzone:


Me as another blogger? I've never been banned to be another blogger, nice try guys ;)
Nah, we weren't thinkin' that... I was trying to remember which of our bloggers was associated with the crownweather.com website...
Thanks StormW, and how about possible intensity? Hi Zoo. Been awhile. All is well on my end. And you?
hey Foggy - good here - usually lurking,
About Katrina as a cat 1. I am still pondering, why did it caused so many deaths and damages when it cross S FL. This is the part of Katrina I will never understand (maybe If I was there).
With those SST's I definitely think that someone needs to tell Fred to go north. If anything resembling a td or ts got into the gulf it could get ugly.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Nah, we weren't thinkin' that... I was trying to remember which of our bloggers was associated with the crownweather.com website...


Ohh.. ok, 07L is entering 5-10 knots, and looks good. Maybe recon will find a TD this afternoon.
Quoting zoomiami:
hey Foggy - good here - usually lurking,


Morning Zoo & Foggy :)
DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090919 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.6N LONCUR = 69.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 26.2N LONM12 = 68.2W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 25.3N LONM24 = 66.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



SHIPS Text
Quoting zoomiami:
Agreed Baha - had a lot of damage from Katrina as a Cat 1, but prior to landfall they were saying it was barely going to be a TS.

Do you realize that we really only had about 36 hours notice with Andrew? In today's world we gripe about the 3 day. Once Andrew started moving it just zipped on in.
Andrew came through here the day before it hit FL, but on the 19th, which was an election day here, there was a small news item about Andrew on the local news. Fortunately for me, I was a "hurricane buff" even then, so we were able to make some preps at my house before the worst of the insanity at the shops and hardwares began. But u were right; we really didn't have more than 2 days' notice at the most...
Quoting reedzone:


Ohh.. ok, 07L is entering 5-10 knots, and looks good. Maybe recon will find a TD this afternoon.


take a look at this morning QS, I was surprise Fred is that well define

456 - I've looked at the info dozens of times, because Katrina caused more damage than most other storms that S Fla has been through. Excluding Andrew of course.

It came in on the South Broward line, and then did a twist down through Miami Dade and into the upper keys. I believe that the "twist" that it did caused the area to be under the gun for a longer period than most storms, and also caused the same area to be basically be hit by all four quadrants of the storm.

Our home was on the point of the "twist" we had constant rain and wind for approximately five hours - no banding - this is what caused the wind and rain damage.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090919 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.6N LONCUR = 69.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 26.2N LONM12 = 68.2W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 25.3N LONM24 = 66.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM






so he's up to 30 knots
Hi Orca - have you been bothering the penguins lately?
except for andrew south florida has been pretty lucky the last two decades
Quoting Weather456:


take a look at this morning QS, I was surprise Fred is that well define



I was very surprised by the QS too, well organized now.
1596:

Most likely because Katrina hit stronger and faster than expected, and also actually strengthened over land. It was supposed to keep going north, and then it turned south and strengthened. This may have caught a lot of people off guard if they had watched the news and weather from earlier and thought, "Well, nothing to worry about..."


The way hurricanes are classified means that some storms may only have strong winds in a small isolated pocket in the eye wall, while other storms of exactly the same "official" intensity may have strong winds in every quadrant.

Katrina was definitely the second type in it's Louisiana landfall. Maybe that is what happened in Florida.
Quoting leftovers:
except for andrew south florida has been pretty lucky the last two decades


Katrina was also very bad in South Florida.
Morning all.... IF Fred-ex even becomes a low end TS, it would still be very impressive, due to what it has overcome.

Rain nor snow or sleet shall stop the United States Post Service....

Dry air nor wind shear or troughs shall stop Fred-Ex
Quoting leftovers:
except for andrew south florida has been pretty lucky the last two decades


ummm Wilma....HELLO
Hi Leftovers - lucky as in no majors, but 04 & 05 caused plenty of damage. The agricultural industry lost most of their crops (plants etc) in the years with Jeanne, etc & then again with Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

Also a lot of roof damage - I had many friends here in South Dade that had to replace roofs.
Quoting Weather456:
About Katrina as a cat 1. I am still pondering, why did it caused so many deaths and damages when it cross S FL. This is the part of Katrina I will never understand (maybe If I was there).
It's BECAUSE it was so unexpected. Like me, the vast majority of S Floridians were going about their everyday business. Next thing they knew, there was a high-end cat 1 hurricane making landfall. People got killed because they thought Katrina was an afternoon thundershower; instead it was really 80mph winds, torrential rains and massive flooding. News shows in S FL that evening showed 5-6 feet of flooding in some Miami neighbourhoods.
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Orca - have you been bothering the penguins lately?


I gave up, they can be pesky when they get even :)
Quoting leftovers:
except for andrew south florida has been pretty lucky the last two decades
Including Andrew, so has Nassau. We've had a bunch of near misses, but nothing with eye passage over New Providence except Michelle as she was going extratropical....
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's BECAUSE it was so unexpected. Like me, the vast majority of S Floridians were going about their everyday business. Next thing they knew, there was a high-end cat 1 hurricane making landfall. People got killed because they thought Katrina was an afternoon thundershower; instead it was really 80mph winds, torrential rains and massive flooding. News shows in S FL that evening showed 5-6 feet of flooding in some Miami neighbourhoods.



yea I saw the news coverage of Katrina.


And yea the storm barely weaken over the Everglades.
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's BECAUSE it was so unexpected. Like me, the vast majority of S Floridians were going about their everyday business. Next thing they knew, there was a high-end cat 1 hurricane making landfall. People got killed because they thought Katrina was an afternoon thundershower; instead it was really 80mph winds, torrential rains and massive flooding. News shows in S FL that evening showed 5-6 feet of flooding in some Miami neighbourhoods.


So true - we got home from work when it began to hit -

Had doors that broke open due to the wind, flooded the entire upstairs, spent 3 hours scooping up water, the rains were so bad, and coming sideways that even after we got the doors secured little pinholes were letting in streams like a hose.

The worst part was that we have shutters, but didn't put them up because it was "only" a tropical storm. Now even if its "only" a tropical storm they need to go up.
98L and the new wave.
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's BECAUSE it was so unexpected. Like me, the vast majority of S Floridians were going about their everyday business. Next thing they knew, there was a high-end cat 1 hurricane making landfall. People got killed because they thought Katrina was an afternoon thundershower; instead it was really 80mph winds, torrential rains and massive flooding. News shows in S FL that evening showed 5-6 feet of flooding in some Miami neighbourhoods.

That is so true, we weren't let out of work until 3pm and the storm was about an hour away (Hollywood, fl).. it was basically regarded by employers as not a big deal...
It also surprised Dade county... that storm was supposed to basically traverse Broward Cty but took a unexpected southern twist/treck across Miami-Dade County
Quoting Weather456:



so he's up to 30 knots


They raised the winds to 30kt yesterday at 18Z and have kept it at that level. Same with pressure 1011 inside, 1015 outside since yesterday at 18Z.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They raised the winds to 30kt yesterday at 18Z and have kept it at that level. Same with pressure 1011 inside, 1015 outside since yesterday at 18Z.


ohok
After looking at the quickscat Weather456, my confidence is bumping from yellow code right to a TD at 5 p.m. It's in heading in 5-10 knots of wind shear and very warm waters.
Quoting zoomiami:


So true - we got home from work when it began to hit -

Had doors that broke open due to the wind, flooded the entire upstairs, spent 3 hours scooping up water, the rains were so bad, and coming sideways that even after we got the doors secured little pinholes were letting in streams like a hose.

The worst part was that we have shutters, but didn't put them up because it was "only" a tropical storm. Now even if its "only" a tropical storm they need to go up.


Zoo,

Learned that lesson also, even if TS shutters go up. I can still see the spots in my front door where I had to nail it shut to the frame.
1627. jpsb
Quoting zoomiami:
Agreed Baha - had a lot of damage from Katrina as a Cat 1, but prior to landfall they were saying it was barely going to be a TS.

Do you realize that we really only had about 36 hours notice with Andrew? In today's world we gripe about the 3 day. Once Andrew started moving it just zipped on in.
I remember Jim Cantory saying live on the W.C. that this (Katrina) was the strongest Cat 1 he ever seen. lol.
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Leftovers - lucky as in no majors, but 04 & 05 caused plenty of damage. The agricultural industry lost most of their crops (plants etc) in the years with Jeanne, etc & then again with Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

Also a lot of roof damage - I had many friends here in South Dade that had to replace roofs.
I can see where he is coming from. Sure, SF has been affected by several storms since Andrew. But in every instance storms like Katrina and Wilma showed their nastiest sides to other populations. Floyd never got there; '04 storms caused damage much less in Dade-Broward and even southern PB; even last year's Fay and Ike brushed S FL and went on to wreak havoc elsewhere.

Damage from what storms we did get was bad enough. I'm just grateful we haven't had another 1926 hurricane or 1947 hurricane in the last 20 years....
Quoting Weather456:



yea I saw the news coverage of Katrina.


And yea the storm barely weaken over the Everglades.


seemed to me to be intensifying while over the glades. It was tapping into the hot water off sw Florida's coast.. like Fay did... imo.
Fred 12Z

Statistical




Dynamical


Quoting leftovers:
except for andrew south florida has been pretty lucky the last two decades


You missed a few Storms- Wilma, Frances, Jeanne,
Quoting indianrivguy:


seemed to me to be intensifying while over the glades. It was tapping into the hot water off sw Florida's coast.. like Fay did... imo.


yea but I mean when Katrina went down to 70 mph just b4 it exited into the GOM.
Orca, that Eumetsat pic is Niiiicccceeeee......
New blog!
1619:

There is a ~31% difference in destructive force of an 80mph storm as compared to a 70mph storm, or a ~78% difference between 80mph and 60mph. However, it is not difficult for a storm to intensify by 10 or 20mph.

So basicly, if there is a 60-70mph storm sitting off your coast, you pretty much have to assume a mid level cat1 or even minimal cat 2 just to be safe, as the destructive potential goes up so quickly even with just a small increase in wind.
1638. hydrus
Quoting Wilmasurviver:


You missed a few Storms- Wilma, Frances, Jeanne,
Irene in 1999 was bad too...It was a cat-1 but did considerable damage.
1639. hercj
There is a world of dif between a Cat 1 that is intensifying as it makes landfall and one that is weakening. Cantore was in the middle of an intensifying cyclone. Katrina was weakening as it made the ms/la landfall. Chris Landsea at NOAA who wrote the book on Andrew is convinced that Andrew strengthened over the glades.
1640. hydrus
Quoting hercj:
There is a world of dif between a Cat 1 that is intensifying as it makes landfall and one that is weakening. Cantore was in the middle of an intensifying cyclone. Katrina was weakening as it made the ms/la landfall. Chris Landsea at NOAA who wrote the book on Andrew is convinced that Andrew strengthened over the glades.
I agree.
1641. hercj
All flights canceled. They just stood em down.
1642. hercj
I don't understand this one. They do not have a lot of time to recon this storm. They really are not believing it to be a player at all. Talk about disrespect. lol.