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Disturbance 98L forms north of the southern Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:18 PM GMT on July 28, 2007

A concentrated area of thunderstorms has developed just north of the southern Bahamas Islands this morning, in association with a broad surface trough of low pressure. The NHC labeled this disturbance "98L" this morning, and the preliminary computer model tracks have the system moving slowly to the north-northeast. An upper-level low pressure system to 98L's northeast is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear over the disturbance. The GFS model predicts that the upper low will move north-northeast in tandem with the disturbance, keeping low enough shear over it that a tropical depression could form. The other reliable models do not develop 98L. At present, it appears that Bermuda is the only place that needs to concern itself with 98L. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for 98L.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Feelings, nothing more than feelings ...
503. RL3AO
I figured you would catch your error StormW. :D
eumetsat gives a better and hourly up to date sat pics of Africa. Sector 4&5
are great for close ups.
Sorry for the long C/V one of these days I have to read the instructions...lol

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=RGB,f=1,c=DUST,se=0,n=24,d=1,v =100,pp=0,t=200707182100#controls
Oops, good save Storm!
the MJO
I meant the multidecadal oscillation. New positive phase started in 1995. From '60s to 95 it was in negative phase. Waters north of the equator were cooler. This pattern flip-flops about every 20 to 40 years. 77 was right in the middle of the negative M.D.O.
Posted By: Hipdeep1 at 12:45 AM GMT on July 29, 2007.

Regarding 1977.....there are nor will there be any accurate charts involving Enso fluxes or the MJO. Anything that far back is hindcasted and not at all relevant today.
Do you think the african wave is going to develop?

Well, an African wave will develop. Not sure I actually see a wave right now. More like a vigorous ITCZ. So my answer is no development from anything there at this time. Something might come off Africa in a day or two that would change that of course.
510. eye
the convection will go poof


every wave that comes off the ITCZ swallows.
Well, even though 1977 was inactive, the first storm didn't form until late August and it became a cat 5 hurricane. Reminds me of another storm like that.
I look at the charts and maps and it should be doing something in Okeechobee County Florida......Not a drop for 2 days!!
STL wasn't 1977 about the peak of the negative phase of MDO? That might have had an effect on E.Pac & ATl. Basin

That might explain why the Atlantic was less active (less active, but the first storm, Anita, made landfall as a Category 5 in Mexico, somewhat like 1992). I am not sure if the AMO reduces activity in the East Pacific, which has in recent years been less active than usual (except for 2006). The low activity worldwide also was not likely due to missed storms (for example, the 1914 Atlantic hurricane season had only 1 storm, but is usually not included in activity rankings because it occurred before reconnacinse and satellites, for that 1983 with 4 storms is usually used).
I have a gut feeling that somthing will form out of that wave... mabye not in the next few days but somthing will form.
Were so busy talking about the african wave we are forgetting about 98L who thinks this will become a depression?

Shear was 20-30 knots an hour and a half ago. Since conditions are expected to become more favorable, I would expect a tropical depression by tommorow.
Nobody knew anything about Enso and the MJO in 1977....so just relax. Any information from the 70's regarding that has been hineycasted!
STL, would you like me to do some research on the inactivity of 1977 for you? I can try if you want me to.
Posted By: Hipdeep1 at 12:45 AM GMT on July 29, 2007.

Regarding 1977.....there are nor will there be any accurate charts involving Enso fluxes or the MJO. Anything that far back is hindcasted and not at all relevant today.


I doubt that... they have been keeping record for longer than you think; for example, this graph goes back to 1840 (from the looks of it, they also have to account for global climate change or El Ninos would become more frequent based on anomalies from a fixed value).
Yo STL... I know SW is looking for you (or so he said), but do you want me to look as well? I'd be glad to.
If you don't mind

And why does everybody think that accurate data only goes back a decade or so? If anything, some data was actually more accurate back then (for instance, they did recon in the West Pacific, which may be one reason why Tip is still the recordholder).
This paper discusses the 1977 season.
STL the multideacal oscillation affects the whole northern hemisphere. When the Mdo shifts, Southern hemisphere waters warm and Northern hemisphere waters cool. The West Pac waters are so warm that it doesn't affect them nearly as much. Remember 1977 was the year it snowed in S.fl. A few weeks ago it snowed in the capital of Argentina for the first time in 30 years. The S.atlantic and pacific are cooler right now.
527. RL3AO
New invest in the EPac.
Information from that far back has been run through computer programs that hindcast the results to the present day environment. It is not an accutrate measurement no how...no way of what happened before current understanding and interpretation of these phenomena.
Dr. Gray relies on hindcasting for over 80% of his forecasts....as does the CPC!
Reading between the lines of the 1977 paper, sort of, the story seems to be that there was westerly shear over the Atlantic that would have decapitated any systems trying to develop. Anita did develop from an easterly wave but only after it reached the central Gulf of Mexico. So what contributes to high shear in the tropical Atlantic?
TAFB has now dropped their forecast of a low regarding 98L. Recon will most likely be canceled tmorrow.
Information from that far back

We are talking about 1977, not 1877... reliable global records go back to the late 1800s... even earlier in some areas (as much as several hundred years)...
Hmmmm, some people take hindcasting very seriously. See the symposia of the International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting.
Hindcast:

A hindcast is a way of testing a model. Known or closely estimated inputs for past events entered into the model to see how well the output matches the known results.

An example of hindcasting would be entering climate forcings (events that force change) into a climate model. If the hindcast accurately showed weather events that are known to have occurred, the model would be considered successful.
Here:

The temperature record of the past 1000 years describes the reconstruction of temperature for the last 1000 years on the Northern Hemisphere. A reconstruction is needed because a reliable surface temperature record exists only since about 1850.

Basically, that says this:

A reliable surface temperature record exists since about 1850

The BOM has records of the SOI going back to 1876; the art of measuring the atmosphere is not as new as some think:

In Bible times the forecasting of weather conditions was based solely upon observations of the sky. This is alluded to in the Bible book of Matthew where Jesus says to the religious leaders of the 1st Century, You are able to interpret the appearance of the sky but the sign of the times you cannot interpret. This method of simple observation prevailed until 1643 when Italian physicist Evangelista Torricelli invented the barometer. This simple device was able to measure the pressure of the air. Torricelli noticed that air pressure changes in accordance with changes in the weather. In fact a drop in pressure would often signal that a storm was coming. Atmospheric humidity was also able to be measured when the hygrometer was invented in 1644. Then in 1714 German physicist Daniel Fahrenheit developed the mercury thermometer. It was now possible to accurately measure the weather.

Of course, it did take some time for measurements to become widespread enough, hence the mid 1800s cutoff for reliable records (of curse, it wasn't until much more recently that satellites came into being, but that was still before 1977).
Ivan-Its called the AMO not the MDO; stands for Atlantic Multi-decadenal Oscillation
Hindcasting is also called history matching. You develop a model and see if it matches the observed history when you input data into it. If your historical data is feeble, then your history matching will be feeble, too.

I agree with MichaelSTL that we have some pretty solid data to go by for 1977. I would not characterize the data as feeble. Of course, we don't have the water vapor loops for seeing upper air patterns like we do now and related kinds of remote sensing. We also probably lack some of the oceanic heat content info, too.

My guess is that the results might be described as debatable, but constructive debate is not a waste of time.
Right....Hindcast this please. Tomorrow's Recon flight will be cancelled!
Thank you.
You all are worrying me... 1977, 1992, and now 2007... All steps are 15 years apart... If hurricanes are cyclical...

Hmmm. What happened in 1962... I've gotta do some reasearch now!
Holly cow... 1962 was another slow season. Although no Cat5 landfalling cane. In fact, no landfalling hurricanes at all.
Biorhythyms, I think.
It's a shame any METS never hang around this blog.
A real great reason is that Dr. Masters said an invest has formed!
Invests do not and cannot form!
They are declared by the
TPC!!!

Everything else forms.....but when you have nothing that has "formed" how do you have anything?
You don't!
Invests are "DECLARED"! They do not form!
Hey Dak check out 1947... ROFL!
Let's see if they announce a flight is canceled, what happens? Let's see what happened in the past when they announced a canceled flight. Hmmmm, sometimes they had to reschedule the flight but most of the time it really was canceled. By matching history I conclude that when they announce a canceled flight then the flight will indeed be canceled. Not always, though.
MichaelSTL

u have mail
CRS
1977, 1992, and now 2007

I don't think there is really any significance there; 1977 and 1992 just happened to be 15 years apart and 2007 just happens to be 15 years after 1992, but has not been the same as either of those seasons. It would be like comparing 1933 and 2005 and saying that the next season like those will occur in 2077.
1947 had 9 storms, with a major hitting Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. 1932 had 11 storms. 1917 had only 3 storms and the 3rd was a major hurricane that struck Cuba, and the panhandle of Florida.
Is this sollipsism? Hurricanes do not form, they are declared by the NHC.

Naw, just cause and effect reversed. An invest forms and the NHC or somebody recognizes it as such and alert people that they are going to be investigating this area.
TD298: You may want to see a hurricane come your way but normal people don't want to. You could loose your home and everything you own, and believe me it's really hard to start over when you have nothing.I am sorry you'll for this but people like him/her isn't very smart to think like this. But I think JP said: one day you will get yours.
i just check this too an yes there is a 15 year pattern of low activity from 32 47 62 77 92 but 07 remains to be seen it cant be that simple gotta wait and see
But I think JP said: one day you will get yours.

We'll all have our share of hurricanes in life, unfortunately...

And STL, I looked and couldn't find anything. Hmm...
Keeper, 1932 was not inactive... 1947 had 9 storms, that's one less than average. Not inactive.
tm07 u really are full of yourself huh
Posted By: bappit at 1:40 AM GMT on July 29, 2007.

Is this sollipsism? Hurricanes do not form, they are declared by the NHC.

Naw, just cause and effect reversed. An invest forms and the NHC or somebody recognizes it as such and alert people that they are going to be investigating this area.


Please show me in the cyclogenesis process where there is any mention of an invest.
An invest can be any swirl of clouds the TPC PROCLAIMS an invest. It has nothing to do with cyclogenesis!
dont mean inactive just low numbers not the 15 or 18 range more like 6 to 12
Just for fun lets look even further back. 1902 saw only 5 storms. 1887 saw 19 storms. 1872 saw 5 storms. 1857 saw 4 storms. 1842 saw 8 storms. Of course there could have been more storms since they didn't have reliable observations back in the day.
like i always say dont try to make any sense out of it all because sooner or later u realize it makes no sense at all
I don't think there is a 15 year cycle, mainly because nature doesn't work that way (look at ENSO; the period between El Ninos and La Ninas is not fixed, over a long period it looks random, in duration and intensity; recently it has been many weak-moderate events in rapid sucession, compared to the very strong El Nino in 1997-1998 and the strong La Nina from 1998 to 2001).
Oh this is just for fun guys and we all know that there is absoloutly NO correlation. But it sure is interesting!
Someone....anyone......show and provide cyclogenesis proof that an invest can "FORM"!
An INVEST is not a tropical product!
It is a DECLARED area! That's it!
i also looked at track maps for those years they all seem to be in the general area as well except 1887
Hello all. Been out for a few days. Is the cloudmass at aprox. 10n 40w, all that is left of the wave that came off Africa on Thursday/Friday ?? If so, what happened to it ??

Thanks........
I wasn't making this into a "science", but I thought it was fun, too...
It doesn't work when you look at 2005 and past years:

2005 - 28 storms
1990 - 14 storms
1975 - 9 storms
1960 - 7 storms
1945 - 11 storms
1930 - 2 storms
1915 - 5 storms
Only thing I've noticed is that when you go to the Hurricane Archive on wunderground and run thru the years diagnally.....do..do..do.do...twighlight zone. Every 15 years....do...do...do...do.lol
good evening

Ia there some rotation near 10N 47W
i may be wrong but 05 was once every 100 years event
That is like taking 2005 and 1995 and assuming that there is a 10 year cycle (as with 1977 and 1992 being a 15 year cycle, thus being able to predict this year):

2005 - 28 storms
1995 - 19 storms
1985 - 11 storms
1975 - 9 storms
1965 - 6 storms
1955 - 12 storms
1945 - 11 storms
1935 - 6 storms
1925 - 2 storms
1915 - 5 storms

It does look like there is a much longer cycle over decades (the AMO), although recent years have had more activity than the last peak (even if you exclude 2005).
Tropical Disturbance Summary [0130z 29JUL]
-------------------------------------------
Area of convection near 7.4S 87.1E or 870 NM east of Diego Garcia. Animated Enhanced Infrared imagery indicates that the disturbance has maintained intensity and overall organization over the past 24 hours. AMSU Image depicts convective banding south wrapping into the southwestern quadrant.

Upper level analysis continues to indicate a favorable environment with weak to moderate vertical wind shear and good poleward outflow, enhanced by a mid-latitude trough south of the disturbance.

Maximum sustained winds remains at 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 mb.

Re-issuance of Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. The new alert will be re-issued, cancelled, or upgraded to a warning by 0130z 30JUL.

-----------

Hello all. Been out for a few days. Is the cloudmass at aprox. 10n 40w, all that is left of the wave that came off Africa on Thursday/Friday ?? If so, what happened to it ??

Thanks........
Good evening everyone. Pottery (blushing) how are you? JP my dear sweet man - how are you?
An invest is a name for a potential tropical cyclone that is being watched for development!

Potential development watching is not a defined formation.
Therefore it is not a tropical formation.
It is a Declared Area!
JP - can you answer Pottery's question since your such a smarty pants?
1982 was the first time I became aware of El Nino conditions. There was a tremendous winter in Northern Calif, fanny bridge in Tahoe City had 12 feet of snow on its sides. It snowed almost constantly from mid Oct to late April the following year.

By contrast, this same area had the mildest winter last year that I can remember in the past 50 years. Snow fell here once or twice. Here being at the 6500 level in the Sierras near Lake Tahoe. Last year was a mild El Nino. 1982 was a very strong El Nino.

I wasn't tracking Atlantic Tropical storms in those days.
Sorry for the double post.

Thanks, Tropicman. I thought so.
On another note, NO Sahara dust around at 11n 61W for the first time in a long time. I can see the hills!!!!!!
Nite guys - gotta run and have some cake:)
I'm a strong believer in yearly cycles. But then no year is like the next one.

I will ponder this.
Must be nice to be out of that dust. I saw pictures via MargiKiepers blog that were amazing. I had no idea the dust was that thick!
Much obliged, Smartypants, er, I mean JP.

Good evening to you, Oh Blushing one. Very good to see you.

'nite, Gator.
Hey Storm! How are you tonight? What is you take on 98L?
I just read the last hrs or so post. Interesting. You got to think So Fl is due a major soon. Just look how lucky the area was with Fransis that could of been a bad one. Have a nice evening.
Yeah he's a nut... LOL

Don't feed the troll's
thelprogressivemoles, would you please stop leaving comments that dont pertain to the subject. And, you keep calling jp a girl very annoying and making you sound like a 5 year old.

Ok, anyways, I see 98L seems to be hanging on for its life...and come check out my blog more about 98L and our CATL waves.
Rip it up StormW......please show me proof that any invest anywhere can actually form!
Babbit. Yes indeed, some weeks go on and on and on.......the dust is depressing in its presence, and acts like a greenhouse, raising tempratures and tempers too.
Well I believer there are cycles >Cycles with variations of course because you have to consider fluid motion.Other cycles blend and effect the cycles but in general there still are cycles of nature .IF you can say that t eh earth comes withen x amount of nautical miles ev ery 40,000 years then yes there are cycles and anyone that don't believe that just haven't been on planet earth .
MichaelSTL - Go to Wikipedia. There is a good bit of info about the 1977 hurricane season.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Still no surface low!
Hipdeep is Randrewl who was origonally banned. he keeps coming on with different handles to get around the ban. Randrewl just disagrees for the sake of argument.
I shall not feed the troll, then, hurricanefran!
MichaelSTL - Go to Wikipedia. There is a good bit of info about the 1977 hurricane season.

I already looked there and while they post the fact that worldwide it was the least active year for storms (obviously since reliable satellite observations), they say that the cause is unknown.




CAll it a night guys. Relax.
Our people are working on it as we blog

5
whats the latest on the wave coming off africa?
I have heard this board claim everyone is that Randrew.
I have been here for more than three years now and don't post much.
Sorry if I am too hard on you guys. There are certain definitions regarding tropical forecasting that should not be taken litely.
Well not taking up for Randrewl but ,diagreeing for the sake of the argument may be a good thing in the long run .However ;getting into snarwling bouts of fussig over t is anotherand should be restrained .
There are certain definitions regarding tropical forecasting that should not be taken litely.

There are also favorable conditions for tropical cyclones to form in (including 98L) that shouldn't be taken lightly, and yet you do. I've never seen you say something will develop since you started posting.

Hipdeep1 site:http://www.wunderground.com/

Results 1 - 4 of 4 from www.wunderground.com for Hipdeep1
There are also favorable conditions for tropical cyclones to form in (including 98L) that shouldn't be taken lightly, and yet you do. I've never seen you say something will develop since you started posting.

Yes, And I am proud of that!
Yes, And I am proud of that!

I am proud of your bad grammar. You shouldn't capitalize the A in and unless it's a new sentence. And you said take it "litely", it's lightly not litely.

Not trying to be annoying, but you are annoying me, so...
KoritheMan, please don't start a fight over a capatalized letter, nobody has perfect grammer or spelling. And if he's annoying you, just simply ignore.
OmShantiOm

On another tack, is there a way to forecast African Dust eppisodes ?? When is the next wave of dust due ? how heavy ? where? etc etc

I have not been able to find any such thing.
KoritheMan, please don't start a fight over a capatalized letter, nobody has perfect grammer or spelling. And if he's annoying you, just simply ignore.

I wasn't trying to start a fight, actually. I just like picking about bad grammar, just because I think the way it looks when it's spelled wrong is funny. Not that the person should be made fun of, but that the way the words look when you post them gives a laugh or two. I find bad grammar amusing in THAT kind of way, though no offense is intended to the person.
PWAT's are around 2 in the 98L area at the moment. Dry air to the east is some distance away. There's a little upper air anticyclone south of what has been the main convection. Looks like a line of thunderstorms is developing under the divergence between a short wave to the west and the anticyclone to the south. I think the strength of the convection developing now will determine its fate, but it does not look likely to develop.
if you do not want to her Hipdeep1 put him in your Ignored List that why you have it like i did and all of his commet and blog will be gone this like that
Pottery, I don't think anyone has a handle on your dust question. Sounds like a good question, too. Seems like people just watch and wait.
Good advice, Taz.
Alright, I'll do that, Taz....
98L is basically involved in an upper trough of low pressure. That's it! There is no surface low center and most likely in the next 36 hours there will not be one.
Tomorrow's RECON flight will most likely be cancelled due to lack of interest.
Once again.......Invest's are DECLARED.....they cannot form!
thanks
Babbit. I think it is strange, that more effort is not being put into understanding the SAL and its effect on tropical storms. Some research is being done, but it would seem to me that it is a vital link in the sequence, and is very vaquely understood.
Posted By: StormW at 2:52 AM GMT on July 29, 2007.

Right now, just by looking at satellite real quick, if the wave South of the Cape Verde islands can gain some convection, it would be a good possibility, but right now, all the convection is with the ITCZ. The other area in the Atlantic doesn't seem like it's faining to well...it should be entering that area of subsidence with the leading portion of the downward motion pulse of the MJO


StormW: Are you saying the convection at 28W 9N is related to the ITCZ. To my very amateur eye, it looks to have spin with convection. To me it looks as invest worthy as 98L. Thanks.
More on Dust.......research is ongoing here in Trinidad, and recently a report was quoted in the press, that showed that the dust contains several bacteria , and traces of DDE ( not DDT.) DDE is apparently not good stuff in any case.
The reseacch here is concentrating on finding out whats in it, rather than anything else, as far as I can gather.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 3:14 AM GMT on July 29, 2007.

having a spin has nothing to do with it, the convection is still all related to the ITCZ


Posted By: StormW at 3:16 AM GMT on July 29, 2007.

StormW: Are you saying the convection at 28W 9N is related to the ITCZ. To my very amateur eye, it looks to have spin with convection. To me it looks as invest worthy as 98L. Thanks.

Yes, I am...if you go to the NHC site and click on the Tropical Weather Discussion, go down to where it says 1800Z Surface Analysis...this will bring up the surface analysis map...the ITCZ is sitting just below 10N, and the circulation center is located near 11-12N. It's pretty close together, but the actual circulation is north of the ITCZ. I believe they also mention the convection on that in the discussion

To JP And StormW: thank you
Keeping you on your toes here , Storm. LOL
98L is just that. 98L. No surface low and if a flight happens in the next 24 hours I have $100.00 to all of you right now!
I'm not a MET and I am good for my word!
Let's see any Met meet that one!
LMAO Storm
Storm if you're still here, can you tell me what the ITCZ is? TIA!
ITCZ where the tropical winds from the northern and southern hemispheres meet.
thanks everyone little by little... :)
The ITCZ is where I live.
In the case of 98L Stormw.....we have an upper level trough. That is described as an elongated area of lower pressure in relation to the surrounding atmosphere.
There is no defined surface low pressure center and there has never been one.
I seriously doubt there will be one due to the squeeze regarding the massive ULL....(TUTT) to the East.
Lot of shear that your charts do not show!
Interesting... and notice how this is the 00z run.

98L
Well I'm off to bed don't forget to turn off the light when you leave and I will hand it over to the night crew.
That GFDL has a roaring STS in about 48 hours. And if it doesn't it will in the 00Z run!
I have no doubt this DECLARED Invest will be gone quick!
For those who never saw this data, I always thought that the CIMMS MIMIC-TPW product has a lot of potential value as a tool in forecasting. Unfortunately the product has never been perfected, with large cracks sometimes appearing in the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) field shown over the tropical Atlantic, and also spurious data that sometimes appears.

Yesterday I took a look and noticed the most unusual phenomena...TPW apparently moving WEST back along the ITCZ towards Africa. Most curious, and still visible on today's loop, although the trend seems to have decreased and somewhat reversed towards normal.

From a mathematical perspective I have a hard time understanding why this product has not been improved...I am guessing lack of funding...
Doesn't matter Stormw. You will see. This won't happen unless a STS does after the next 48 hours!
Either way I don't think even Bermuda has to worry about this one.
STS

Subtropical storm, though this says tropical.
this is a quickscat of 98L the quickscat for 98L has this update

by the way the mb for 98L has drop from 1012mb to 1010mb

675. DDR
hey pottery,we could use some itcz rain right about now,usually dry weather, don't you think?
676. Alec
How many TUTT's are defined without an ULL? Take a break!
Yesterday I took a look and noticed the most unusual phenomena...TPW apparently moving WEST back along the ITCZ towards Africa.

I know why; the 00Z GFS analysis actually has the surface winds around 10N going west to east.
Posted By: StormW at 3:47 AM GMT on July 29, 2007.
I seriously doubt there will be one due to the squeeze regarding the massive ULL....(TUTT) to the East.

I forgot...the TUTT is not an upper level low..it's a TROF


StormW - I've read a lot of NWS discussions where the forecasters call ULLs in the TUTT...TUTTs! That being said, I agree with you, better to keep definitions precise.
STL - Wow, I guess that explains it. Most unusual! Some cross-equatorial incursion?
This map shows the same thing (it also has a low where 98L is), likely due to low pressure over Africa:

DDR. Unusualy dry for true. Was in the northern range and the north coast today, had some rain there. Washed the sky. But the rivers in the mountains are all very low still. Very little real rain has fallen.
STL, that map shows a low of 2011 at about 10n, with the winds blowing AWAY from that ?? Is this not unusual??
Nope!
An ULL within a TUTT is not a cut-off low pal!
That might happen over land but then you wouldn't have a TUTT involved would you?
TUTT's don't happen over the CONUS!


Link
TUTT: Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough!
Evening all,

Just dropping in. Looks like nothing much is happening tropically, especially since I'm not going to be around to observe whatever it may be for the next couple of weeks. On 98L, I'm glad to see forecasts send it out to sea. Hopefully it won't develop sufficiently to do more than bring Bermuda some rain. . . .

I'm off for now but will check in periodically.
Good analysis MichaelSTL, I was just looking at QuickSCAT winds and they still show some westerlies south of 10N, with cyclonic winds flowing generally N to NW across the equator in the region from as deep as 10S or more.
A cut-off ULL is not even associated with a TUTT. A TUTT is a trough. Cut-off upper lows are mostly involved with CONUS weather systems!
Show me a cut-off ULL not part of a TUTT in the tropics!
698. Alec
TUTT: A TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) is a trough, or cold core low in the upper atmosphere, which produces convection. On occasion, one of these develops into a warm-core tropical cyclone.

credit:NOAA

good night y'all!=)
INtresting dance around the obviouse StormW. Don't worry I will not hold it agaisnt you .truely it would be crazy for a professional to do sucha thing .That is why things like that should be left up to the one that can afford to forecast it and that is the Amature lol /.
i have no problem here stormw. Been a pleasure yacking with you.
Just always remember: An Invest cannot form....it must be DECLARED!
Here is little more precise definition of a "TUTT" from an academic meteorology FAQ:

Subject: A9) What is a "TUTT"?

"A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of harmful vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere."
GFS, NAM, and CMC all scream, "Subtropical!!!" for 98L. UKM says "nada." NGP doesn't know it exists.

We may get a weak subtropical storm. It's nothing to be concerned about, though, unless you're in Newfoundland, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, or on a ship or transatlantic flight.
Those westerly winds are interesting - because when you add in the easterly winds a bit further north, it results in cyclonic turning, which is more favorable for lows (and eventually storms) to develop; CIMSS shows that on their 850 mb vorticity map. MargieKieper also showed why the West Pacific has been less active than usual a while back, because the circulation pattern was creating an anticyclonic environmment (and may still be; the CPC said that stronger than average easterly trades would be inhibiting development in the tropical West Pacific this week; note that 05W formed from the remnants of Cosme and further north).
Just always remember: An Invest cannot form....it must be DECLARED!

That seems like a semantic pretzel to me. An INVEST is an area of interest for further tropical development. Presumably the interest comes from the presence of convection and also the presence or possibility of favorable upper-level conditions that may lead to tropical cyclogenesis. These conditions certainly do "form". When these conditions are detected, tropical forecasters with far more experience than anyone on this blog (with the possible exception of Dr. Masters)"declare" an INVEST, but the conditions that lead to the declaration of an INVEST certainly do "form".
There are no parameters regarding Invests!
Cyclogenesis is very clear and nowhere in the TPC's Declaration of an Invest is any formation mentioned. Invest's are not at all part of the process!
They may seem that way to the couple thousand of us that follow this.....but it is a DECLARED thing!
This is obviously going to get interesting. But it's 12;30 where I am.

See you folks in the morning...... Or the afternoon, it's Sunday after all
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 4:29 AM GMT on July 29, 2007.
Those westerly winds are interesting - because when you add in the easterly winds a bit further north, it results in cyclonic turning, which is more favorable for lows (and eventually storms) to develop;

MichaelSTL - That thought occurred to me as well. I agree that has the potential to enhance
the chance of LLCs forming and deepening near the East Atlantic ITCZ. It will be very intersting in the coming days to see if this leads to the start of the Cape Verde season, which is also lining up with a forecast out to 14 days for slowly rising mean pressures along the South CONUS and a weakness in the mid-Gulf. Ouch!
A declared Invest is an area of interest. There are no parameters regarding this.
While a declared Invest may develop into a depression.......just because it is a Declared Invest means nothing in that regard!
Guygee & STL. One thought before I go.....the SAL is fading fast around Cape Verde as well, and is leaving room for more moist air to be available in that area.
No parameters? Ever seen an invest with NO convection? Last time I checked, convection was a parameter.you argue just to argue hippoman!lol
just passing through but this really sounds like you all are debating what came first...the chicken or the egg...LOL!!
There is only one thing I doubt will allow very many storms in August; the downward motion pulse of MJO forecast for at least two weeks in August. We'll still see 3-4 storms in August probably, and probably 1-2 hurricanes, with a possible major hurricane (unlikely during the first two weeks due to unfavorable MJO). However, the storms might not have quite as favorable conditions in August as happens in a normal season.

It will be interesting to see what that'll bring for August... Activity, or still staying with 2 storms?
LOL, Bama!

What's up?
Yeah, its tedious in the extreem.....................
Well....while the chicken was trying to cross the street with a basket of eggs......the TPC declared an Invest......and now we all have scrambled eggs!
Purely politics...


I'll say it again...


The NHC is a whole league of its own now..


A good man went down.



He was Miami, and still is. Proenza got a raw deal. But who hasn't lately? LATELY!?
lol okay..

how an invest gets designated argument?
Too bad Miami is now a foreign country.
lol
Patrap!!!...so that's it, I always wondered what smoking guy's real function was..blowing the tops off would be hurricanes.
I tell you what you all sure know who to make the weather interesting to say the least....
recently designated 99E.INVEST

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
----------------------------
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE... LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT.

SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

----------------------------------------------
another possible cyclone for the Northeastern Pacific?
pottery2 - It does look like the drier air off Africa is generally more north than it was earlier this month, also less of it.

I was off as just taking a last look at our little pet 98L for the night...really no deep convection and presently it appears to be moving more east than north, in response to the ULL to the north. It still has some ULH support, but not very impressive right now; it needs to blow up some deep convection overnight and form a LLC to have much of a chance at development anytime soon.

BB tomorrow, good night everyone.
Weather ain't no big thing....But it is fun sometimes!
Hey Jp,
There is some real good reading going on in here tonight...

it is all aboutn the invest 98L right...
JP,
I had a real good trip to Chicago but we had the wrost storm I have been in.... In a long time... I thought I was in a Hurricane up there, man it was bad....

Anyway I am back in Alabama Now and realy enjoying all this stuff tonight...
alot of it was so funny that I was rolling in the floor...
storm in Chicago...
Yeah, I'm ROFLMAO over here! Ha Ha Ha!
JP don't ever let anyone tell you that you don't know something because we all know you have it down... and if they don't think so they need to check your Blog out then they will know for sure...


Taco:0)
This was last week on Thursday night it was so bad, oh sorry it was wednsday night.... All I could say was OMG... I think I even saw a water spout it was crazy.....


Taco:0)
JP you are always welcome...
The trough has dug deep.....but our ULL....TUTT has this under control. No flights today.
Link
I am going to tell you I am glade to be back in Mobile where we get 2" of rain in 30 minutes then it is gone for the rest of the day.... I like that... You can set you watch by it..... afternoon showers.... LOL
oh ya, that storm when it crossed the Mississippi River from Iowa was bad here too.

surprisely the NWS in the Quad Cities never did issue a warning for my county, but the county just east was issued a warning from the Romeoville NWS.
HadesGodWyvern,
I will tell you I have been in some bad weather in my time but to go through that I wish it on no one..... I saw a tree get hit with lightning and it just looked like it blew up.... The Rain was so hard you could not see in front of you.....
Ok Nite JP I will chat with yall tomorrow...

Have a great nite everybody...
whoa. the only thing I saw was a large forked thunderbolt quickly flash towards the ground in the distance. The thunder afterwards was really loud.
night =)
Guy Gee
I would suspect the lack of funding has to do with NOAA.Now that NOAA has assumed the name of the National Weather Service they can now have all the blame for all the wrong doings and everything else the rest of us can think up for them .
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
104 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

...EAST COAST TROF...
LATEST GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH A
SUBTROPICAL SFC SYSTEM LIFTING NWD WELL OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE
PROGRESSIVE EAST COAST TROF ON D2-D3. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE
NAM/CMC AND UKMET...WHICH HAVE A SLOWER AND MORE WWD TRACK THAN
THE GFS.
We don't like that slower and more Westward track!
These 00Z runs are all over the board! Link

Anyone have a better grip?
Finally a model is up
It certainloy has been boring and i certainly was tired of complaining about everyting lol hehe very funy i though . anyway glad to see something of a topic in the tropical atlantic zone .
We don't like that slower and more Westward track!

If it moves west and hits Florida, it will only be a tropical storm. What's so bad about that?
We're talking the outer banks right now. Hopefully the current model tracks are good.
A tropical storm anywhere isn't bad, unless the ground is saturated. The Carolinas are dry anyway, so big whoop, a tropical storm may hit... Not bad at all. People take tropical storms too seriously. They're like the media.

I can see a Category 2+ hurricane, but anything less... just no.
Good evening everyone and thanks for being you.!!!
A Sub-tropical or extra-tropical system will drag in nasty gale-force winds.
I don't see a tropical nature with whatever happens with this invest.
Althought the models have picked up on it and intrest has peaked I myself don't believe it has a chance to become a tropical storm . I certainly dont; think it will become anything more then an invest ,but hey It wouldntbe the first tie i was wrong . Maybe a subtropical at this point at most . However we' ll wait and see what happens with it!!
Good morn to ya !!
Gmornin!
I'm not a wait and see person.
There's a sub-tropical system building regarding Invest 98L.
It may begin as a warm-core......but quickly to cold-core.
The hardest part is the track. I'm not buying the spaghetti models right now.
How will it be a cold core? It's over mid 80 degree water. And 80 degree waters stretch about 400 more miles northeast and north of it. What the crap are you talking about?
If Usagi is indeed a tropical storm, why isn't it on the main page, HadesGodWyvern?
These Noodles will shift left soon....I believe! Link
Tropical Storm USAGI



35 kts - 996 mb




www.cazatormentas.net
What the crap are you talking about?


Here's your big chance to sit and watch! LMAO!
the 9am advisory from JTWC will add the name Usagi.

JMA just upgraded it at 600am UTC.
These Noodles will shift left soon....I believe!

Doubtful. I believe it will recurve. I could be wrong though, never know.

Here's your big chance to sit and watch!

I have nothing against you, but unless you can tell me a good reason why you think it'll be cold-core, rather than warm-core, I won't believe a thing you have to say in that area. Sorry.

the 9am advisory from JTWC will add the name Usagi.

JMA just upgraded it at 600am UTC.


I see. Thanks for clearing that up.
I declare hipdeep1 a troll. Now there is nothing in the process of banning that requires a troll. Trolls are DECLARED. Banning happens by a mod.

I see the spaghetti models shifting towards a cold-core troll. The hardest part is the timing. Will the troll be banned tonight? Or will it survive a few more days.
This is your chance to sit and watch.
GFS takes it cold-core.......
Link
Cold core after extratropical transition. Shallow warm core over most of the track.

Those that know how to read the phase diagrams see:
Subtropical depression/storm - >
Noreaster - >
typical extratropical storm system.
775. BtnTx
yes, it is trolls we must worry about the most
98L is over 80 degress of SST's and will get warmer as it passes the warm loop currents, also the shear is decreasing...so explain how this could be a subtropical storm??

Maybe it would be as it reaches the higher latitudes...but 98L being subtropical as of now seems a bit akward. It's like having, in August, a subtropical storm in the GOM lol.
Tropical wave S at 20 N and 60W is what has my interest at the momment . No thunderstorms no convection ljust dry air .But It still is a wave it still has circualtion and it is comming into an area that NHC says is becomming more favorable for development .The other 98 invest has a trouph to tangle with so unless it becomes extra tropical before it does anything else I dont believe it has a chance .
There a are a few waves present and all waves east of 70 there is opportunity for them as they progress westward.especially as they move into the more favorable area's at present!
Oh me no storm can be taking too seriously .maybe some might get alittle to excited about them but why not take them seriously.
779. BtnTx
my troll comment was sarcastic. storms should always be taken seriously
Sorry you guys im busy cleaning up my links and moving around my tropical stuff . trying to get my tools ready and bring them all into one area so that i dont have to search for them and get distracted .
Posted By: weatherblog at 8:29 AM GMT on July 29, 2007.

98L is over 80 degress of SST's and will get warmer as it passes the warm loop currents, also the shear is decreasing...so explain how this could be a subtropical storm??

Maybe it would be as it reaches the higher latitudes...but 98L being subtropical as of now seems a bit akward. It's like having, in August, a subtropical storm in the GOM lol.


No, In this area it is nothing like the GOM!
but why not take them seriously.

Cause not every storm is bad. I find tropical storms fun, not bad... 50 mph wind gusts is wimpy.

And cold-core my butt. Who cares what the models predict? They're man-made. 98L has a rainband in the southeastern quadrant, or it looks like that to me. The thing looks to be getting MUCH more organized. Don't forget Alberto developed along a sharp surface trough in 2006, which is what this is doing. Don't doubt it will be warm-core. I'm almost positive hurricane hunters will fly into it today and find a depression.
Dude, TCHP doesn't matter for 98L to develop. Stop freaking wishcasting. Good Lord... Weather does what it wants, and 98L is probably going to be a warm-core. The waters are still in the mid 80s underneath it right now. You just don't want it to develop so you can argue with us some more. -_-
Nah, 98L will either not happen or go cold-core real quick.
There is still no surface low!
Looks like a large gale to me!
Let the hurricane hunters decide if it has a surface low. Stop acting like you know everything, please... When a storm does develop, you probably STILL won't admit that it will develop.

I have nothing against you, but you are beginning to aggravate me.
A surface low doesn't determine if a storm is cold-core or not. Waters are warm not cold.
I could see if this was May, and it developed liked Andrea did, but it's not. It's almost August, which tells me what you say is just wishcasting or trolling. One of the two.
I'm not sorry!
This is just how it works!
Too bad you can't understand!
It sucks....I know. Just run out the phase evolutions!
Link
Surface chart:
Link
853
AXNT20 KNHC 290541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N72W INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO 22N76W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RIDGING ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA SURROUNDING THE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 24N-30N E OF TROUGH TO 71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM 4N-18N ALONG 23W MOVING W
10-15 KT. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-18N ALONG 43W MOVING W 10 KT. MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF WAVE FROM
7N-9N.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 19N ALONG 57W/58W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 19N
ALONG 88W MOVING W 10 KT. NO CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN BUT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 11N45W 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM S OF AXIS FROM 21W-26W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF AXIS FROM 33W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO TO LOUISIANA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVES MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN
AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE NICARAGUA
HONDURAS BORDER NE ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN CUBA. EARLIER
STRONG TSTMS OVER CUBA HAVE DISSIPATED BUT A FEW TSTMS REMAIN
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST S OF CUBA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N76W
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH E OF ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
DRY STABLE AIR WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N74W ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 24N67W WITH RIDGE N TO 31N67W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH DISCUSSED IN SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. A WELL-DEFINED ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N62W AND IS DRIFTING NE.
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR 22N60W.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE EASTERN ATLC WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR N OF THE ITCZ.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N37W TO 27N43W.

$$
DGS



025
AXNT20 KNHC 290553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N72W INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO 22N76W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RIDGING ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA SURROUNDING THE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 24N-30N E OF TROUGH TO 71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM 4N-18N ALONG 23W MOVING W
10-15 KT. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-18N ALONG 43W MOVING W 10 KT. MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF WAVE FROM
7N-9N.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 19N ALONG 57W/58W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 19N
ALONG 88W MOVING W 10 KT. NO CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN BUT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 11N45W 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM S OF AXIS FROM 21W-26W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF AXIS FROM 33W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO TO LOUISIANA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVES MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS LEFT ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN
AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE NICARAGUA
HONDURAS BORDER NE ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN CUBA. EARLIER
STRONG TSTMS OVER CUBA HAVE DISSIPATED BUT A FEW TSTMS REMAIN
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST S OF CUBA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N76W
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH E OF ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
DRY STABLE AIR WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N74W ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 24N67W WITH RIDGE N TO 31N67W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH DISCUSSED IN SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. A WELL-DEFINED ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N62W AND IS DRIFTING NE.
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR 22N60W.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE EASTERN ATLC WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR N OF THE ITCZ.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N37W TO 27N43W.

$$
DGS
Wow didnt realize it would be that long i Appologize for that
Just a note .Any tropical wave comming into an area that is foavorable to development has Opportunityso has to be given notice.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 290911
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



Just a note .Any tropical wave comming into an area that is foavorable to development has Opportunityso has to be given notice.

I know. Never thought of that. Thanks man. :)

I'm ignoring the troll.
Why is it that some folks can be given the rap and others not even noticed and then some have the celebrety status on this blog . can't everyone be treated equal or is it a standard set by the administrator of this blog. just curious .dont get upset byt it just want to know why {trolls] is used and curious if anyone believes it takes away form the integrety of the blog bashing some folks .please dont get offened by it I just want to kow if it is worth taking the intrest away fromt he blog and given it to the so called [Trolls[ cause by doing this that is just what you are doing. thank you for alowing my comment and that will be all on the subject.
I didnt say it was a subtropical system i said It maybecome one .It certainly can go iether way dont ya think. and what i truely saud was i didnt hink the invest had much chance . it was a secondary add on mention that maybe it had more chance to become subtropiacl in nature . just not enough proof that it will do anything , that wa ll . not worth any more metion as far as i was concerned , that is all but thank you for reading the comment .
sorry i was gone for awhile and missed the comment and was busy re organizing my links and updating some stuff . I am ehre if you have any questions on my comments as of now . but please remeber that is all it is comment lol
keep in mind that tropical weather and the sience inst exact and given that and taking in concideration of all 19S has as much opportunity to become a developing tropical system as any other does . Just using it as and focal point of the comment not giving any more to then that .
truely not untill a tropical wave becomes a storm depression should we even give it any more then notice. but hey i realize the tropical Atlantic right now and has been pretty boring so i understand why the intrest in them .
for give me and my typo's im in the dark and i don't type well without watching what im doing and of course get in to big a hurry so if ya will please forgive the mistakes .Atleast i am human he he lol .
Someone tell all of us what is happening on the WV Loop!

Look at this blob about come off of Africa

BLOB
I have seen that model and just don't agree with it that is all.
ok i will

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: This product is updated at approximately 11:30 AM and 10:30 PM EDT
Area 1 (click to zoom)
AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information



000
ABNT20 KNHC 290202
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



Sorry I didn't mean to do that. I did it by accident. Can anyone help me erase these comments?
who hosed the blog?
Hello
What happened to the blog?
Thank you WPBH. I knew how to make the italic disappear but I forgot at the moment.
so it is not just me that has a problem with the blog

Nope.
Looks like the environment for 98L is becoming more favorable. Trof off the E. Coast looks a little weaker and the cut-off upper low to 98L's NE is now weakening and moving away.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 291048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N71W TO 23N74W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NNE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 25N-30N E OF
TROUGH TO 70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC FROM 4N-18N ALONG 24W MOVING W
10-15 KT. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-18N ALONG 44W MOVING W 10 KT. MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 19N ALONG 59W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 19N
ALONG 88W MOVING W 10 KT. NO CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN BUT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N20W 9N35W 10N45W 11N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS FROM 15W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 35W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO TO LOUISIANA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVES MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE AREA FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W OTHERWISE ONLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN
AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE NICARAGUA NE
ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N75W
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH E OF ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
DRY STABLE AIR WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N73W ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 23N78W. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM WEAK ANTICYCLONE NEAR
24N66W TO 31N66W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH DISCUSSED IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A WELL-DEFINED
ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 33N63W AND IS DRIFTING NE. TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR 25N58W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MOST
OF THE EASTERN ATLC WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR N OF THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N37W TO 26N42W.

$$



SevereStorm...What makes you say it has a surface low?
good morning everyone so what's going on with 98l this morn and are there any waves that we need to be focusing on?
Ok, then what was the point of saying it had a coc, meaning mid-level, when it's had one the entire time?
no one is up i don't guess
amazinwxman...98L is still festering and is worth watching. The waves near Africa and embedded in the ITCZ are pretty much nonexistant this morning.
Im looking at an area just off the coast of South carolina at momment just looking that is . im not too concerned witht he 98L .If it does break away fromt he trough it will get sheared and besides it is moving away from us anyway. Other then that I really dont know what the fuss is on 98L. Now there are some other waves that have peaked my interest at momment .some of course that are heading in this direction lol .
I realize it has been pretty boring on the blog and 98L is something to talk about lol .

ok well ok
dew why are you looking at an area off S.C. coast and what other waves has your curiosity and what are their potential to form into something?
dewfree...Storms only peak your interest when they are headed towards land? I personally like it when thier headed the other way.
I heard someone say that the trough or front moving toward the east coast was getting weaker is this true and if so does it mean anything to 98l?
Possibly, amazinwxman.
lol just as soon as something alittle more exciting comes along the blog will fire up and all the business with 98L will fade away fast
man dont worry about them the comments it will be alright
Morning all ☺

amazin, the trough will dissipate some time next week, but it should pretty easily grab 98L. I also think the high is forecast to build back in some at that point which would end up pushing 98 back towards the trough even if it did not push any further off shore. imho.

A surface low is forming HM...From Charleston WX office...

AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW
FORMING NE OF THE BAHAMAS

At least I take that too mean surface based...
amazinwxman...A weaker trough would probably lend to slower movement NE and weaker shear.
It does appear a sfc low is forming, Junkie. There's just not much evidence of it until more vis images are available, or we could get a well placed quikscat image :)
i keep forgeting about the potential impact of the bermuda island . i guess it does warrant watching for now lol
Quickscat

Interesting circulation just off the African coast. Not much wind or convection with it, but looks like a fairly well closed low to me?
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW
FORMING NE OF THE BAHAMAS


Hello! Where did that statement come from please?
Read the entire post Hipdeep. Right above that it says from the Charleston WX office.
Quickscat

That is a pretty well placed Quickscat HM, it looks to be a couple hours old, but you can see cyclonic turning, just kind of messy. Guess we will have to see if the next pass hits it or if the visible today shows anything.
Yep! I got it. Thanks.
SST are amazingly similar to this time last year . how many storms were actually the final numbers on last year
Morning to you too hip ☺

It came from here.
Yea SJ, nothing conclusive. The lastest convective burst might have closed off the circulation, or it might not of.
That's a great quickscat shot of a beautiful upper trough. I don't see any surface low in there nor is anything forming that I can see.
Anyone got any thoughts on that CV Quickscat pass?
Big blob approaching the W coast of Africa, higher lat than previous events. What are the CV water temps now? Something to watch.
854. IKE
I read the Charleston,SC weather discussion...found this in the extended....

"Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
low pressure looks to form along the frontal boundary across the northern or
NE Gulf during Wednesday and Thursday
...with remains of this boundary to lay
across the area through Friday. The combination of these features will
result in above normal precipitation chances during middle to late
week...before Atlantic high pressure tries to make a return next weekend."............


The Tallahassee and Mobile morning discussions discount/throw out the GFS showing low pressure forming in the GOM toward the end of next week.

Looks like the latest NAM run wants to side with the GFS...
Hipdeep...Quikscat only shows surface winds. Thats a surface trough/front you're seeing.
Morning...

Ike, are the NAM and GFS spinning something up in the GOM?

(I'm being lazy - haven't checked the models)
Quikscat only shows surface winds. Thats a surface trough/front you're seeing.

Right.
858. IKE
Posted By: MrNiceville at 7:36 AM CDT on July 29, 2007.
Morning...

Ike, are the NAM and GFS spinning something up in the GOM?

(I'm being lazy - haven't checked the models)


The GFS has been consistent with low pressure in the NE GOM toward the end of this week...the NAM only goes out 84 hours, but seems to be hinting at something in the NE GOM.

With a distinct area of cyclonic turning hip, albeit not very organized as of that Quickscat.


So no comments on the CV apparent closed or slightly elongated low on the Quickscat?
It is not a surface trough. It is a mid to upper trough of low pressure. That's maybe why there is no surface low still regarding 98L!
Thanks.

Nothing to do with that motly area of showers in the central GOM right now, eh?
862. IKE
Posted By: MrNiceville at 7:44 AM CDT on July 29, 2007.
Thanks.

Nothing to do with that motly area of showers in the central GOM right now, eh?


I don't think so.
Hipdeep...If quikscat shows it, then it's at the surface. It might be in the middle-upper atmosphere, too, but it's definetly surfaced based.
Well, looks like it's shaping up to be a beautiful day down here. We're headed out to Tops'l to have breakfast with some friends that are camping out there. Then, back to do some yardwork while I'm "unemployed" for two days...
Hey guys

If your interested in the models predicting a low forming in the NE GOM later this week. Copy and paste this link for a sypnosis. http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html
Thanks Smyrick.

Well, looks like we may get some precip late in the week. Great - I'm driving back from NOLA on Friday afternoon and we have a band "preview" for this year's halftime show at the local high school Friday night...

What's going on out in the CATL (besides the invest) - is anything starting to develop from any of the waves that exited Africa last week?
SJ, the CV low is intriguing. There's been no convection around it for 24hrs, it's amazing it's stayed intact.
98L is a goner
869. IKE
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 8:02 AM CDT on July 29, 2007.
98L is a goner


I disagree...I think it's headed toward a TD...then Chantal. May take a couple of days.
98L a goner? It just started looking good again. Give it a chance. Or at least provide some reasons why you think it's a goner.
Not actually a goner, but it's off the Navy site.
here is the july forecast from july to nov of tropical storms frequency.here is the july forecast from july to nov of tropical storms frequency.here is the july forecast from july to nov of tropical storms frequency.
The FNMOC site still has 98L, but the NRL site shows nothing.
Interesting HM...
the navy site has been massing up a lot for the past few days so in tell the main navy site is fixs i would ues FNMOC site
877. IKE
I think the Navy site is having issues.
thats what i this siad
880. IKE
I know...I was agreeing with you TAZ.
First of all.. Dew

Dont spam...

2nd... Accuweather(Inaccuweather) is NOT a professional site.. Its worthless.. I mean really, 15 day forcasts, come on.. get real.
weathersp...As much as I don't like Accuweather either, they are a professional site and have been for over two decades. Being around for that long means you're doing something right.
ok IKE
I know they have been around.. They have some really good people like Elliot Abrams and Dr. Joe Sobel and I have alot of respect for them. But what I have found that when it comes to their forcasts I find that they are very unreliable. Thats just my opinion and I just as you have the right to voice it.
TropicalMan07 her you go to your ?

NOUS42 KNHC 281700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SAT 28 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR BERMUDA.
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 29/1730Z
D. 30N AND 71W
E. 29/1900Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION NEAR 32N AND 69W
FOR 30/1200Z OR INVEST AT 30/1800Z.
That's yesterday's report taz... and Hipdeep I still have your comment from last night.. Take your time $100 for every person on this blog isn't much.
is 98l going to track west in a couple of days ?
may be a eye wall of some kind? this is USAGI by the way

stormybil...Pretty much no chance of that. The trough/front is going to keep it moving NE.
892. CJ5
Morin'in all.

It doesn't look like anything exciting to watch this am.

24/12 doesn't have much convection but it still has that broad area of upper circulation so it may develop into something later. This was my impressive Mali storm that I thought so highly of...not so much now but time will tell.

44/13 is dry as a bone and nothing remarkable with it.

59/19 is even worse.

98L doesn't look as impressive as it did this time yesterday but they are saying it could develop further but a fish storm it will be.

There are two back to back waves getting ready to come of of Africa and right now both further N (around 15N) than the last few.
Interesting thing about Usagi in the W. Pac is that for as great as it looks on sat images, the internal structure you might expect isn't there at all. Not even banding.

well there all ways the 1st
000
URPN12 KNHC 241932
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/19:15:50Z
B. 19 deg 58 min N
111 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1421 m
D. 25 kt
E. 221 deg 029 nm
F. 307 deg 030 kt
G. 221 deg 027 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 21 C/ 1525 m
J. 25 C/ 1524 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0217E PAUL OB 18
MAX FL WIND 53 KT E QUAD 17:50:00 Z
;




is this new or old?
Definetly old Taz.
thanks
Hey, Taz, check out the SSMI 85GHz PCT pic of Usagi. It has an eye.

(Can't link to pics on that site and don't know how to post them on here.)
Is there something trying to spin in the GOM - directly off/on Texas?
27/97 ish
Those TMI pics don't show as much, maybe they are a little older.
S2D, I think that's me.
bappit - LOL ...I'll take that as a "S2D, get back to your coffee!"
:-)
bappit...That was the newest microwave image I could find. Where are you seeing newer SSMI images? BTW, to see the URL of any image just right click it and select properties. Then you can make it a link.
906. IKE
NEW BLOG!
West Pacific storm is forming nw of Guam and Saipan and moving off to the west, before recurving towards Japan. Not a concern for Guamian or Micronesian interests.