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Disturbance 96L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:12 PM GMT on September 24, 2006

A tropical wave (dubbed "96L" by NHC) is in the mid-Atlantic, 1200 miles east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm has developed a well-defined circular rotation visible on visible satellite animations, and is close to tropical depression status. QuikSCAT winds from this morning's 4:45am EDT pass were 25-35 mph in a few isolated patches. About 20 knots of winds shear from the west is keeping the heavy thunderstorm activity of 96L confined to the east side of its circulation. If this shear relaxes for 12 or so hours, the storm has a chance at organizing into a tropical depression.

The computer models indicate that wind shear may drop enough to allow 96L to organize into a weak tropical storm, but none of the models are forecasting a hurricane. The storm is currently drifting slowly to the northwest. As the remains of Hurricane Helene race off to the northeast over the next few days, the Bermuda High will re-establish itself and a high pressure ridge will build in, forcing 96L to the west-northwest. The system could threaten Bermuda around Friday. However, I think it is likely that a trough of low pressure will recurve 96L northwards and out to sea before it reaches Bermuda.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 96L.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Hurricane Helene has completed its transition to an extratropical storm, and its remnants may bring high winds and heavy rain to Ireland on Wednesday. A few of the computer models are forecasting that a new tropical storm will develop between Africa and the Lesser Antilles later this week. Any development in this region would likely recurve northwards out to sea.

I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I am wishcasting...wishing you would take your grits and cast them out of this blog



Now that's really funny!
Don't spam him...there's nothing else to do! Let's just totally expose this individual!

Don't ban him...just ignore him. Why do y'all let him get under your skin?
kissmygrits u are lame.
KissMyGrits,

im sorry but no one is wishcasting, im sorry
KissMyGrits you can go kiss my you no what you ?@?!!!
Bad day at the officeLink
Since GRITS stands for Girls Raised In The South, KissMyGrits must have some real ugly daughters to have to beg people to kiss them.
dont make me say that word
KMG sounds like something the Colonel Breaded up.
Better dayLink
KissMyGrits shut up
How about that blob in the Gulf? Potential? Water sure is warm.
524. PBG00
Grits' Mama is probably sending him to bed...school tomorrow. Hey why is the gfdl so far off the other models for 96?
sorry to see this happens in here to...thought it only happened in the chat rooms(people like Kissmygrits...and newguy333)
Well not an attractive one TAZ. (just kidding)
Because 96L isnt going to develop.
528. PBG00
whoa Taz.
Taz! Ignore him and use these:
good night KissMyGrits, have a nice day at school tomorow, what is it, your first day of 1st grade, good luck!!
531. PBG00
Thanks 03
Smile Taz...life is good.
lol thats me
: weatherguy03...Amazing! Isn't it?
Its blog stirring temper grabbing mood changeing worms of the internet. Just put up the idiot shield and move on.
yes it is but not for my trolls
537. 0741
were is the wave that will become 97l? alot of say it will become
96L is amazing? Not really, it looks pathetic.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING W AT 15KT.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W.
0741, its near 10N/25W, i will try to post a picture
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N44W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
THE LOW IS EXPERIENCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF WLY SHEAR THUS
CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 38W-41W.
0741 her is the wave that will be come 97L
lol
i do not think 96L will pose a threat
not sure however about the waves behind it
Hey folks, I have to say I love that "-" feature, just mark every troll post with a minus, set your filter to "show bad", and you never have to look at them again! I ss that that high has really expanded out over the Atlantic, if anything comes of 96L then things may get interesting. But for now, no worries in sight..

don't like the look of that one around 10N, 26W..
Posted By: snowboy at 7:48 PM CDT on September 24, 2006.

Hey folks, I have to say I love that "-" feature, just mark every troll post with a minus, set your filter to "show bad", and you never have to look at them again!

but if you do that you wont see my post...you wont that would ya?....lol
Rand throw this one out kinda like poker. mail
Canadian...144hrs.


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We're tossing cards here! Crab...this looks like what I mentioned earlier!


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551. SLU
*yawn*

This season is really starting to bore the living daylights out of me. The last 2 seasons have spoilt me.

I don't know if any of you have read "Snowball Earth" on Wikipedia or not, but it is an interesting theory. There had to be some storms during that time that would make anything we have seen seem like a calm day.
Hey folks, I have to say I love that "-" feature, just mark every troll post with a minus, set your filter to "show bad",

One thing to remember is to mark all good posts with pluses; this is necessary in order for the rating system to work (when you give somebody a plus or minus, it affects not only their ratings but yours as well). You can do the same to everybody's blogs, too (only you can only give blog entries a plus or flag them).
It is Rand just did not seem to have to show it.lol
The Mission for Hurricane HuntersLink
Buenos Nachos, weather heads!
Crab...stuff like this happens this time of year.


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Will 97L have a chance to make it to the US Mainland or will it get wisped to sea like the rest. It sure has been a wierd hurricane season, I guess it must have to do with ElNino.
apparently ive been missing some WunderDrama today?
SLU, I like bored much better. The only thing the last 2 seasons spoiled for me was all the food in the freezer and refrigerator while the power was off for several days on three different occasions. Patrap and others hit by Katrina were without electricity for so long, they probably thought it was a new discovery when it came back.
Wunders of the blog world. Rand you and I met thinking you were an AH and I was and AH LOL so whats changed? Same views same topic, just better understanding. LOL
Yeah, lol Rand I do know but its the folks like you and others that help me see it faster.
can someone plzzzzz tell me a link of the african satellite theat is updated every half an hour
where you think this'll head?

Hmm Patrap Rand who wants to answer cane
No drama...I'm still an AH...nothing has changed. I'm not sure about Crab though!
Posted By: sarepa at 8:10 PM CDT on September 24, 2006.

can someone plzzzzz tell me a link of the african satellite theat is updated every half an hour


Here is the Eumetsat site; however, the Meteosat-8 satellite is bust... the last image is fron 1400z yesterday. The main page says that it is down (on the right under Service Status Indicator).
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 9:10 PM EDT on September 24, 2006.
where you think this'll head?


Is it safe to say west or will I get screamed at?
Oh Geez...a Westcaster!
Old habits are hard to break Randrewl
cyclonebuster...Do I have to give you another lesson in Nasty Troughs?
MichaelSTL Thax alot
The important things are backLink
Storyofthecane, Looking at the forcast in the 36hr, 3 day, and 5 day, I would say that its going to the lower gulf region. However I would also like to say that it is going to be blocked from any northward movement by a series of high pressures behind the troughs. Other than that I have no clue.
i figure west as well, why, have people been fighting over this tonight?
..all of the important thingsLink
LOL Rand no change
I don't know how much longer it will be until it comes back online, but until then, we can't get regular images of Africa.
Cyclone...Nasty Trough.


Pat...mail
97L is lookin pretty good

PAT....LINK ISN'T WORKING FOR ME.....
Is there a reason why the SSD images (6 hourly updates) still update, yet the 1/2-1 hour ones from Eumetsat have not updated at all for more than 1 1/2 days?
cant wait for the 0300 update from the navy site
Rand,mail
Crab...what should I do with my trump card?
You also have WU mail.
Hold em or fold em.lol your call
So whats the thought on the new wave? Got a chance?
Where would it go if it developed?
Is there a new wave?
Thanks Rand I will look into it
97L is off and 98L should be shortly following
its not "official" but ill bet my car on it
well the thing south(ish) of 96l
Until Eumetsat is back online, here is about the best view you can get of Aftica ----

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF
What kind of car is it?

Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 8:40 PM CDT on September 24, 2006.

its not "official" but ill bet my car on it
GOM worries me.
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 8:43 PM CDT on September 24, 2006.

GOM worries me.
Why?
Mercedes
img src="http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/IASSP1.gif" width="688" height="562" alt="lol" />
606. 0741
randy did you see my e-mail?
GOM does look somewhat worrysome, low shear, high sst's

The new wave is still jumbled up in the ITCZ. Probably not much will be discussed till that clears out.
Maybe tomorrow.

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Story, is your car still up in that tree in NOLA?
patrap
look whos talking
Did someone mention "west?"
OK nite all enjoy the
See ya Crab!
G'nite Crab
..Big bad thunderstorm outside here...lotsa lightening..Baaddd a Booooom!
Still a big enough mess on the gulf coast...... dont need wish or west....
Nasty business down there. Must be drainage for the Nasty trough!


roll your roof vent down pat...... i did ...lmao
last storm before the front..I hopeLink
ahh the pitter patter on my rubber roof, bud light and no sat signal...life is good
..has his Directv line of sight back,,its over here..
..has pics of the t-storm..LOL
....Amen! to that Rick...sometimes I really wonder if people in other parts can remotely comprehend just how bad it messed things up.

...something now, even a TS, would be almost catastrophic, like a deathblow almost.
coming at ya............ lmao
Pat!
I do not like what I am seeing tonight.
it was amazing to me at first....now its a little depressing..... lot of ppl are fighting back and rebuilding..... a lot gave up and will never come back or get over it..... had some that gave up the good fight after they saw what was left of their life
Randrewl, what are you talking about?
This nasty business here.


Rand, you think that's got a chance?
gggeesshhhhh.....faxes coming in at 9:15 on suday night........ give me a break...tomorrow is another day
Earlier this morning the convection was like that around Brownsville. Then it died way back. Now it is like this morning only further south.
What would you guys think?
me and pat are going to get wet ? lol
can anyone in here ban people?
I'm still hoping most of this will end up in the East Pac. But I don't think all of it will.
anybody know about buying domain names and how much they should cost without getting ripped off?
Looks like it's trying to go back into Mexico.
.Im not looking at the GOM imagery...not gonna do it..gonna think good thoughts...
Hi all just thought I would check in and see how much longer before the front gets here...


Taco:0)
does not bother me bother me bother me......
Darn Westcasters!
Watch out! You'll call out Bob!


Thats right Randrewl, I am always watching:))
What signal is looked for to suggest the ending of the Cape Verde season ???
Something like this.


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A must see Link
Showers in GOM are associated with a prefrontal trough. That area would need persistence in order to develop into anything this week.
birdofpray,
yes the admin can band people if they are so bad that they think they will cause trouble...



taco:0)
,,Hurricane /Hybrid/neutercane Betty 1972Link
Systems form from cold fronts quite often last time i checked
Not going anywhere Rand, I am always watching you:)
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 2:21 AM GMT on September 25, 2006.
anybody know about buying domain names and how much they should cost without getting ripped off?


I have a .us and it costs me about 8 bucks a year. They resellers are pretty much the same on price ... look at things like customer service.
zzzzzzzzzzzzz
somebody's trying to sell me a domain for $1688, including the recurring 15 dollar .com free.
I'll be sure to give you a good show....
Tropical systems do not form on cold fronts. That front would need to lift out or dissipate, leaving some energy behind in order for something to develop.
Thought I'd stop in to check on the gulf blob..Looking at the goes-east, the worst convection is just meeting what's left of the ULL. Trough looks thinner than it did earlier across the southeast. Looks ugly, the probibility map gives it as high of one as the new wave near Africa.
24/2345 UTC 18.1N 44.7W TOO WEAK 96L -- Atlantic Ocean
sooo,wheres td9???...

contestant #1...wave off africa(97L)
contestant #2...GOM blob
contestant #3...other
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 2:33 AM GMT on September 25, 2006.
somebody's trying to sell me a domain for $1688, including the recurring 15 dollar .com free.


That is because they own the domain .... find one that is not in use ... A lot of times the .US suffix is available when the .com, .net and .org are already taken.
i mustve been misinformed then
whats the best way to search for available domain names of different suffixes like .net .com etc.?
Baroclinic lows......
i just barely talked him down to $750, not sure the name is that important though
Well SOTC, its kind of a trick question. We need the fronts to stall over the GOM or Caribbean. But, they need to leave behind a trough or an area of low pressure.
The area of the 17th St Canal Breech before KatrinaLink..The break happened just south of the Bridge ..behind the Homes
StoryOfTheCane - there are tons of sites offering free (or at minimal cost, depending on options) website hosting...
That's right Cyclone...I call for immediate dissipation....but I just checked and she is back up on the Navy site! Transition is obviously not complete.
for comparision fun ~ credit NOAA
Whoo...Skye....We got some watching to do!
Better map for potential intensity - it explained Gordon's "freak" intensification over sub-80 degree water to a Cat 2:

Helene...Still Tropical.
What's new?
It's not really better...just more confusing Michael.
17th St Canal..August 30th..after the Hurricane passed..click to enlarge imageLink
?

Basically, it shows how strong a storm can get; the colors coorespond to the scales on the maps; you can see that the highest potential is currently west and east of Florida/north of Hispainola - pressure below 880 mb and winds above 165 kts (190 mph) - in perfect conditions, that is.

Descripition

Also, Skypony's map shows the formation probability; it is currently no higher than 2% in the Atlantic for any one 5 degree square.
Michael...pop up those loop eddies and SST's...that's what we all need.
Patrap rode out the storm..near the Baseball playground in this imageLink
Our maps are in total disagreeance:P

I'd hope the Africa blob would have more than the gulf (& yes that's wishing.)

Suprised yours there has the wave in front of 96L as a bigger threat than 96L...which looks pretty sad & naked. Though I guess the NOAA map has a few more lit up boxes in that area than this morning as well. But it's lost circulation, sounded like it could gain more convection tommarrow.

Yes, yes plenty to watch & ponder.
Taz posted his picture before, thats no girl!!..LOL
Sometimes all those fancy colors cloud my vision. I appreciate those charts. Thanks Michael.

.You can see boat rescues in progress if you enlarge and scan the flooded New Orleans side
So No TD 9 tonight??
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 9:51 PM CDT on September 24, 2006. (hide)
Bad for Tampa for sure with those SSTs.


SSTs are not everything. Note what this says:

The upper bound on tropical cyclone intensity is calculated using sea surface temperature and atmospheric thermodynamic profiles from the latest output of the Medium Range Forecasting (MRF) model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Source

Also, those "atmospheric thermodynamic profiles" do not account for wind shear or dry air, which have been frequent this year.

Oh, here is a chart coorelating upper atmospheric temps and SSTs.
96L had been up to yellow 2 days ago on the Tropical generation probibility map I had posted.
StoryOfTheCane you have mail.

Almost ashamed to post this. I said Almost!

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Well Skye...there's a lot of yellow in that photo....
Lot of cold tops happening here.


Atleast a High has built in nicely over the east gulf, looks like it might have gone near as far as it's going to west..

The 18Zgfs looks simialiar to lastnights MRF.
Hey doe's anybody know the chances of that gulf blob developing, if so were will it go?
Skye....Is this looking more cut-off to you?


So Pony...would it go N?
I noticed earlier this evening that the cloud tops on the system that came off after 96L (and survived more than 12 hours) had warmed up. It looks worse than 96L now. There were 3 other systems that followed 96 and none survived a single day. I think Randewl mentioned that much of the convection with the latest system probably is mainly due to the ITCZ.
I'm personally leaning real hard towards a cut-off here.



Rand, what makes you say that?
Yeah the CloudSat have quickened on NexSat:)
Dang they're way to big to post...lol.
I'll go back & link that. It was like 988000 in size.
From satellite and Brownsville radar I see this. There's a 1016mb high to the right and a 1023mb high behind this mess. it appears at this time to be sinking to the SW.
I hope that continues.
If not, this is where a baroclinic low can spin up...when low pressure is squeezed.
I lean toward cut off, more so even then this morning.

The only thing about that high is it's only like 1016mb...Could help it go north if no troughs came along & the high didn't weaken or move away. Hard to say except it doesn't scream my only way out is over FL.

Probibly would need a few days to fester yet too.
Link to cloudsat pass across a weak looking spot in the trough...

Yeah, eyed up that squeeze too. It's not a definate for formation, but looking ugly.
Cool...That's a 1008mb low pressure area down there Skye. Probably lower than 96L right now. But a few days to do something is out of the program for this time of year. If anything happens it will happen quicker than that imho.
where is the 1008mb low?
is that new wave we been talking about is that the wave that have the 1008mb low and we sould see 97L by monday?
THE video..note the time of the break
THE video..note the time of the break..cstLink
LOL..Cyclone likes loops!
Think the day after tommarrow is too long? It could go quicker...already have some lower pressure, Lane remenents, old small ULL getting in the fray, some loop eddys...but things just seem to take their time in the tropics...Even the storms.

This has been something I've glanced at on & off this season. A one time blogger that seemed to know alot about energy left this... I being atracted to colorful grafics has checked it here & there. Seems like for the most part when the lines have been high cane occuance is up (not just atlantic)... Haven't taken the time to research it at all. Can anyone enlighten???

niters all......work day tomorrow
Notice how the eye is due east of New Orleans..at the end of the loop.. at Link0900am cst
would some one ask my ? for me thanks

now where is this 1008mb low is it the new wave we been watching today
Whoah....Skye! I'll have to stand on my head for a while to cipher that chart.
Hopefully the slop end of this trough will slide right out into the EPac and be gone....or not!
I'll be watching.
Taz....I was talking about the convection area in the Western Gulf. That's the 1008mb area I was mentioning.
Randrewl where is that 1008mb low in the gulf going
Yeah just hoping science cop or someone with studies in the area is lurking.

Patrap~ Can't imagine being told not to talk about all that when it's all being reported & recorded so wrong & after what those guys saw.
Skye....have you checked the GOM WV loop? Every stitch of moisture is being sucked West...I said West right into that area.
Western GOM buoyLink
LMAO at Cyclone!!!!!
..watch for a rapididly falling barometer later this evening..then ill be a lil concerned
..Gotta love a girl with Hips!
That probibility of generation map I posted fell off the page but it's updated since I posted it. The odds on the gulf slightly up, 96L & wave behind it slightly down.
Pat, where's Empire, La?
Patraps Great-Grandfather...Link
How do you post offline pics that you made, Thanks.
..Empire,La..is at the mouth of the Miss River..at the end of Hwy23..near Venice..
Pat, page can not be found
Welp...Randrew's probability chart is high wherever anything is likely to develop. Just have to go with the old ways sometimes.
Good evening,

Right now there's nothing to worry about in the GOM as the TROF currently moving into the southeast is forcast to lift to the north.96L is not expected to develope due to unfavorable conditions.Off the african coast there is a tropical wave moving westward at a fairly low latitude with the possibility of some slow development due to subsidence in the area. Adrian
Evening 23.

Hey randrewl whats going on?
Posted By: Patrap at 4:11 AM GMT on September 25, 2006.

..Empire,La..is at the mouth of the Miss River..at the end of Hwy23..near Venice..



Also Disneyworld for redfish...wiped out by Katrina...ready for some football, Patrap?
We've just been talking about your trough for the past several hours.
Cyclone....you ready for another close-up of that Nasty Trough?
ship in the BOC with 22kt winds. It's squally down there.
Skye...Was that a slight pressure drop I saw?
....electrons??? uuuuuummm, Hurricane Pneumonics? whoa, that's pretty deep.
Here's surface observations from around where Randrewl was pointing out on the WV. Atleast the pressure isn't lower that 1012mb.
It maybe a few hours earlier than usual when the pressure drop ussually occures. It was really quite High around there today compared to the last few.
Buoy 42055, only one I can find in BOC, shows rapidly RISING pressure.Link as seen here
Great video Pat. Saw The Long Cool One along with Page in Houston...Great show!
If It does develope, which is looking more and more likey. Then there is a good chance it will stall over the gulf and choke to death on upwelling cold water. Hurricane Roxanne is a great example of this.
Let's sum this up. The tail end of the trough is cut-off some of us believe and will mostly end up in the East Pacific or possibly remain behind and might be a pain in the BOC.
Some others say the trough will lift North.
Charts tell me it moves East and stalls across Central Florida by Thursday.
Now that is divergence!
Things like this happen this time of year.


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I can't find a better example!
mybe this is Brets second coming. Just needs to have a land fall a little farther north.
,.Who cares for medication?....
That's a perfect example of a trough tail getting cut-off and then spinning up and running up. Perfect.
Meds here Doc!
How?
Is 64/80 a good test score?
Saints WIn!..Link
Saints WinLink!
Pat! It's cut-off man.



WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 24 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-117

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
It is left behind.
Web definitions for Wince, humm?
Or drowned.
..GOM problamatic if cutoff occurs..Yup.."No sir..I dont like it"..Stimpy would say
Roger the Negative.
It might do a little dance on the way out.
Dancing might be on this program...we'll see.
Otherwise ....bring your shoes.
I saw him wince in pain from the hammers blow.
Patrap! It is cut-off.



#4 luminous
Ahh! wheres my english II book.
Watching that blob is as fun as doing homework.
Rand, agree with cut-off, sure looks that way. In developing this storm, when would you expect to see spin? or when is it likely to be declared an invest, or TD?
In a case like this....you would have an invest before you or I saw anything. I'm not saying anything here right now.
What I will say is the dirty end of this trough has been cut-off and it requires attention.
It's just that time of year.
Persistance is the key with thunderstorm activity but right now iam not expecting anything in the way of tropical development,it will probably go poof by the morning.Adrian
..Glad I wasnt in the crapper on that landing..lOL
Posted By: Randrewl at 1:35 AM AST on September 25, 2006.

In a case like this....you would have an invest before you or I saw anything. I'm not saying anything here right now.
What I will say is the dirty end of this trough has been cut-off and it requires attention.
It's just that time of year.

Cloud tops are already warming in the GOM...This area will be gone by morning.SEE HERE
not so sure about that
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SE AND EXTEND FROM N
FLORIDA TO THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.
Posted By: Randrewl at 5:59 AM GMT on September 25, 2006.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SE AND EXTEND FROM N

and hows this going to make the GOM disturbance dissipate?
Squeezed between two highs...a 1008mb low area. Hopefully it will just be squeezed right out into the East Pac.
Story...ask 23.
oh i thought you agreed with what 23 said
Buoy SLinkwestern GOM
weird
I can think of 23 good reasons why Randrewl's last link was appropriate ROFL
My view is irrelevant. 23 Just bounces in and squashes a three hour discussion on the same subject and does so in less than the time it takes to read the post.
ya that is kinda annoying huh
is it just gonna go into mexico
i think this area right here should be monitored, the associated low is already 1007mb's

depends on where it moves though
so is something going on in the gom or not rand?I am new at this and cant read between the lines,thanks
Actually I don't come here to agree or disagree,I come here to learn about Tropical weather and I can tell an honest opinion from a cut and paste and I get tired of listening to 23. The most honest person on here is Taz.He at least means what he says
GOM does appear to be losing convection
There's a 1016mb high to the East of the area and a 1023 high pushing from behind.
I have posted all the surface charts up the Blog that I feel like posting tonight.
I present my evidence from what I know.
yeah who cares about 23, it annoys me too but its not like its not expected and realized
or should I say believes what he says right or wrong he believes it.
Without contrasting evidence what can I do? Just run your mouth about something you read on another site is no good!
Present your evidence 23!
Cut and paste! Nonsense.
lol 23 would probably rather die then to admit it was not its own thought process
99W Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
Issued: 6:00am UTC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Area of Convection 485 NM east-southeast of Manila, Phillipines. This storm has sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots and an estimated center pressure of 1004 mb.

This alert will be re-issued, cancelled, or upgraded to a warning before 6:00 am UTC September 26th.
i dont know why its so hard for 23 to cite sources either, this has been like the 15th occurrence of this simple request
well, Story ....we have to work hard to figure this out for ourselves. I challenge anyone to follow my tracks and accuse me of spouting something other than my own nonsense!
Its finally happened..Cyclonebuster dropped one of those things off his desk....Link
Pat is whacked!
..here we see those from the Wu that have the idea to Nuke a Hurricane.Film in from their attempt..Notice the attention to detail
I just want to know whats going on in the gom...anybody????
GOM blob..destroyed..
..now I can go rest up for todays & tonight festivities..Gnight
GOM prediction....from the FSU Super ensemble. That's 30hrs out. Moving South! That's the only model talking.


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night all thanx rand
In my opinion cloud tops have warmed a bit with the thunderstorm complex in the GOM.Pressures also remain quite high in the area given that iam not expecting development anytime soon.Adrian
What happens if something decides to develop anyway?
Given that you are not personally expecting development.
Can you present something to back your ass up?
see notice now the plageurizer ends everything he copies with his name, Adrian, just to make it more apparent that everything said is not his own
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2006

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
20N77W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 17N81W...TO A SMALLER AND LESS
OBVIOUS LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N87W...TO A SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N92W JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLUSTERS OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA FROM
16N TO 25N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.
you notice the two people that are full of the most bs end their comments with their names. StormTop, and Adrian (23)
Noticed that did you?
its like they know they pass things off as their own and feel guilty for getting away with it so feel the further need to place another form of ownership on every comment
...something kind of "Juvenile" about that I think...lol
It's a psychological requirement Story.

And WishGirl...go away.
i think i got em figured out
Well, 23 might do the signature to claim others' thoughts as his own, but not ST!! Dear StormTop comes up with crazy BS that nobody else possibly could!!

LOL

32*
I invented the light bulb.Story
ST is just a sad sad little man with terrible people skills
Check the XTRP! Whatever is left of 96L....is going this way.


That's a West by God track if I ever saw one!
West I say.
So, does anyone think the ridge is back?
we wernt wishcasting 97L, theres a wave in the central atlantic, boy you better learn your weather
bad example of were 97L started off:

good example of were 97L started off:

It does'nt matter what is going on in hee there is always bickering .yes their is alot of reiterating in here and yes some do claim it like it was their own but who cares if you know better then let it be .They only make themselves to look as they do and if that is what they want so be it ! lol There is only a couple of commercial people in the whole world that really make forecast based not just on models but experiance .AS far as those who aren't commercial well i believe they can afford to look stupid can't they !! REmember this if you don't stick your neck out and try then you want never get it right .If some one repeats you and uses your info then it only makes you look better !lol have a good day !!!
the likely hood of recurve is high no matter what comes and rom where it comes .sometime next week will be an opportunity for a close call of somekind along the east coast simply based on nothing else but the pattern at that time . I havent looked and don't intend to look at any tropical system till then . hope all goes well with you all this week and try not to be so hard on each other lol
Quite simply as far as the US mainland goes there isnt or hasn't been a tropical this year except Ernesto and that seems to sum it up does'nt it . Anyway next week has better possiblities have agood one im gone now
ohh in case you noticed i didnt g=figure in the west coast so there you have it lol bye
This is the time of the yr. SW Car. can get nasty. Worth watching.
Last night's GOM blob is gone but it seems to have been replaced with a SCar blob.
Good Morning SWLA
G'morning Crab...looks like it got kinda interesting last night after we left.
Ivan was a nasty storm but you can not compare a early Oct system with Ivan. Climatology rules the tropics.
LOL yes it does
Morning y'all. Been a busy weekend for me as I get closer and closer to moving. So what is the latest on 96?
Well, it looks like the same trouble maker has continued to ruin Dr. Masters blog this season. Too bad they lifted the ban. Maybe next season things will get back to normal. We can only hope. I enjoyed it here last season.
SJ, I don't think 96 is doing so well.
Good morning,

Big flare-up in the SW caribbean this morning also Nogaps hinting on development....Be back in a couple of hours. Adrian

Click here for 00z Nogaps
Morning all-quick check before off to work doesn't look like anything imminent. Is that convection blow up down by Panama anything? Or just Chavez blowing off steam, lol

JER
There's gotta be a 97L invest soon. I'm surprised there isn't already.

Also, Caribbean looks interesting.
I should of rephrased that, the same two people. Thanks.
Oh boy.
I Thing Randrewl is upset with me, I shoud apologize to him.
this blog must have an @$$h0L3 magnet.....

morning everybody.... looks like 96L is "naked" this morning.....

hope everybody has a good week! :)
Hhhmmm, the ugly trough looks like it might just may still throw that mess to the E. Pac afterall.

The probibilities for cyclone formation has dropped slightly across the Atlantic overnight. Kind of not suprising after the dip in the electron graph lastnight, I was looking for some help with...lol. Panama & the Nogaps look interesting.
Hi and bye. Be back later or maybe not until Tuesday. Nothing going on out in the water right now and I don't feel like getting into discussions over things of no importance to anyone other than the person complaining. Have a nice day.
Link
I see the 96L begining to move to WNW... or is something else, not 96L?
Morning yall, 3 1/2 hours of sleep and know milk for your cerial pluse a dead soon to be 97l equals a bad morning for whishy!
try again,Hurricane CockroachLink