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Disturbance 95L over South Florida bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:27 PM GMT on June 29, 2007

Clouds and showers associated with a weak low pressure system over South Florida have increased markedly this morning. NHC has designated this system "95L". Long range radar from Melbourne, Florida shows an expanding area of echoes, but there are no signs of any organization or spin. With wind shear remaining high at 20-30 knots, I'm not expecting any development of this disturbance today. Some of the computer models are forecasting that wind shear will slowly drop the next three days, so we'll have to keep a closer eye on 95L over the weekend. The system could bring heavy rains to South Florida and the northwestern Bahama Islands the next two or three days. A Hurricane Hunter airplane is on call to investigate the system Sunday at 2pm, if necessary.

A trough of low pressure is scheduled to push off the U.S. Southeast Coast on Monday, and will probably sweep 95L out to sea in front of it. There is a chance something could develop along the remains of a cold front the trough leaves behind over the Gulf Stream. However, none of the reliable computer models are forecasting any tropical storm formation over the coming week.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the disturbance near South Florida.

One other area to watch is the region just north of Panama in the Southwest Caribbean. Wind shear values are forecast to drop below 5 knots there by Sunday.

Wind shear decline expected
The jet stream usually divides itself into two branches this time of year--a strong jet whose average position is near the U.S.-Canadian border (the polar jet), and a weaker branch whose average position is over the Gulf of Mexico (the subtropical jet). Both of these branches of the jet stream bring high upper level winds (and thus high wind shear) over the Atlantic Ocean. All of the computer models are forecasting that the subtropical jet will weaken substantially over the next ten days, bringing much lower than average wind shear to the tropical Atlantic. It is normal to see the subtropical jet weaken in the summer, but it usually happens a month later than this--in August. The expected early weakening of the subtropical jet should give us an above-average risk of a July tropical storm. I'll have a full analysis of the possibilities on Monday, when I post my bi-monthly 2-week outlook.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The low was moved up on the Satellite, NW of Lake O, 1014 now. Pretty good convection building at or near the center.
No question jp, but that is like saying some work hard at being professional comics and actors and what not. Just saying I don't have much sympathy for there "hard work"

It would be like if I could make a living following the weather...Yea, it is work, but is not putting up with a factory 10hrs a day just to barley make ends meet.
Gosh many of the Buoys havent updated since 5 pm. The ones that are working that is. They really need to fix these things. Enough of them are close that they could also use cellular communications.
We are talking sports here right?I agree on garbage man or accountant or Doctor being real work but remember life is what you make of it and if someones dream is to make it the nba my props go out to them.Its all about setting goals for yourself.

As far as shaq he is past his prime and his best days were left with the lakers and kobe bryant.Overall the heat in my opinion should sooner or later think about tradeing him as his production out there is slowly diminishing with every game.He's just a turn over at the end of the game cause he cannot make his freethrows.Adrian
I left 30 minutes ago and you are still talking sports! LOL

Adrian - I did not know you use to play BB? Cool how tall are you?
Steering currents are weak of the florida coast but the next trof of low pressure will kick this area out ot sea.
anyone checking out 90 west yet
Seems that the low that was near the Keys is now over North Florida. Moved to the Northeast
Posted By: Gatorxgrrrl at 7:40 PM EDT on June 29, 2007. (hide)
I left 30 minutes ago and you are still talking sports! LOL

Adrian - I did not know you use to play BB? Cool how tall are you?

LOL...Iam 6-2 .

NHC 8:05PM

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...NWP MODELS DRIFT THE
BROAD LOW OVER S FLA TO THE NNE INTO THE WRN ATLC AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL
KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS OF LITTLE CONCERN. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE W GULF NEAR THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW.
Storms over the West coast of FLorida. The GFS 18z run is on the FSU site (btw)
GFS is now showing two waves/systems between 20 and 40w in the 120hr+ time frame. Long way out, but there is becoming some run to run consistency and the CMC and nogaps are calling for lower shear in this area during this time frame.
What is that coming off the Yucatan?
Does anyone think the GFS is on to something showing a Cape Verde depression?
Isn't that a trough too? off the Yucatan?
Hmm...late July Cape Verde depression?
Posted By: eaglesrock at 11:55 PM GMT on June 29, 2007.

Does anyone think the GFS is on to something showing a Cape Verde depression?



not really. I have seen the GFS spin up things like that. Seems too far south to me.
Jp,
Still no heavy rain out in Lake County :(
I was in Katrina. In Florida that is...

African Wave
Good point about how far south it shows it Drak, but something to watch over the next 10 to 20 model runs. If consistency continues then maybe...
How many of you here were in or near the path of Katrina. Have you collected your experiences anywhere?

Saw, Touched, Smelled, Tasted it as it formed over Grand Bahama and turned into the most wreckless Tropical Storm I've ever experienced. No one in Miami put up shutters, came so fast, took down many a tree, even an underconstruction overpass over the 836 in Miami. We later found out the NHC didn't know whether to classify it as a Super Strong TS or a Cat1 hurricane.....sure did some terrible damage in Miami.....and then she moved over the Everglades....the rest is history....a rappid troipcal storm moving fast over the southern Florida penninsula can spell certain doom for the Gulf coast....
Work is being a garbage man or accountant or Doctor etc...

Cool. I didnt think I worked!!..LOL
GOM VIS loop
Link
i think its picking up the new wave off of africa that might be the next depresion
i am not buying any wave that is below 10N for the time being.
No '03, you work in the sense I was talking about. Now if you were a professional met then it would not classify as the type of work I was talking about. Just saying that you are lucky if you get to do what you love...

Good to see ya out and about ☺
Work is being a garbage man or accountant or Doctor etc...


Thanks. Glad to know I'm in the same group as a garbage man....idiots


LOL!!!

There is also an accountant and a Doctor category, its not just garbage man.
So what am I SJ??..LOL
July is definately a different month. For one we can start to actually look at waves that come of Africa more serious. Climatollogically speaking 24 tropical systems have form in the first week of July over the past 120 years. Also we can note that the wind shear values across the Caribbean are low and the SSTs are enough to support a tropical system. the First week of July things tend to form around the ITCZ near the lesser antilles. Will be an interesting July.
Storm Surge..Katrina Link
03-You are an optician assistant correct?

Can you say it is truly what you love? Not that you are not thankful and that you don't enjoy your job somewhat, but you can not tell me you don't have thoughts about how happy it would make you to be with one of the local networks or the TWC or the NWS etc. I think you get my point...
What is this, rate my job???
the GFS has a symetric cold core low in the same area as the mid level low we are seeing North of the Bahamas
lmao MP ☺
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 12:14 AM GMT on June 30, 2007.

What is this, rate my job???
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 12:15 AM GMT on June 30, 2007.

No, its Pimp my Occupation..


LMAO
No, I dont. I am a Professional Met and have worked for T.V before, so I have done that. Would I like to do it again? Not sure if I would. It was fun, learned alot, was happy I did it. Pay sucked!..LOL Oh and I am an Optician and love what I do and get payed:)
No, its Pimp my Occupation..


(taking bow)


Up Next: Invest Makeover
Also been a Restaurant Owner, Teacher, etc.. Its all about challenging yourself SJ. Dont be afraid.
So you are a optician? I thought you just worked for one, my bad.

Although I think you are just giving me a hard time. I think you see my point.
No, just trying to get your facts straight as you were quick to put me down as you normally do.
anyone know why the NOGAPS model isn't updated on the FSU site... to 18z?
StormJunkie.com

I think I know about challenging myself 03.

No professional web training or met training. Done a pretty good job imho. A last it does not pay the bills.
Bob speakes the truth SJ...


Follow your nose, with experience you'll learn well the smell of.....shfailure. Then you won't follow it/that/whatever
Nogaps always runs late.

I did not put you down 03, you just mocked the statement I made about those that get to do what they love to do, and those that do what they have to do to pay the bills.
Well I am glad Dr. Masters lets you spam his blog. Congrats.
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.
Nah JP, its cool. I am done. I was just making a joke before. Hence the LOL. Oh well. Carry on.
Can you smell the animosity?

There are no facts Bob, it is simply a debate about where we would be if everyone got to do what they love and no one did what has to be done.

You think anyone aims to be a garbage man? But where would we be without them?
Bob, how many websites do you go to that you pay nothing and see no pop up adds or annoying unneeded cookies?

I tried reading some product reviews and specs earlier and my finger got wore out from hitting the deny button...
(cough) you watch the Orlando Preds? lol
the Predators are on TV lol

Go Orlando!!!
I went to UCF many a year ago....caught two free footballs at the Orena...I know man lol
Culpepper was my neighbor in the dorms....then he went Dolphins...now he's toast lol
Now your talking JP!!..LOL Have fun. I have only watched Arena Football a few times, but if we had a team close by I would probably get into it.
Wow!

Never met anyone who watches arena football....
Interesting read

BB talks about the Atl becoming more favorable as the GFS and Nogaps are starting to hint at.
Later jp, enjoy the game ☺
I guess you have conceded my point 03 since you no longer seem to be backing yours.

Again, not attacking, just enjoy open conversation/debate.
Nah, I dont feel like wasting my time with you. Its rather boring.
Then why would you bother starting the debate?
GOM WV loop Link
There was no debate..LOL I made a joke. You said a few false things about me. I corrected you. Then you spamed Dr. Masters blog as usual, and thats about it. Done. If you want to talk about weather I can talk about that.
evening all. I do not think 95l will live much longer.
What are we talking bout now? and has stormkat dropped by since last night.
hmm i leave for dinner and still this discussion is going on oh well.. When there nothing to talk about in the tropics people start attacking each other. Seem like an evident trend in this blog....
Hey look theres *95L* (LOL)
Hey 03 whats up?
Hey 23!! How have you been doing? I am still looking for rain??..LOL
Tropical wave:
81F. Very muggy. Played tennis this evening and sweated off a few pounds!! Nice SE breeze though.
yea texascanecaster1 i have seen that wave but it appear to be a little far South for My personal interest; although it is impressive and we do tend to look this way in july (east of the lesser antilles)
lmao pat ☺ ☻ ☺

Good one.

What did I say that was wrong in your opinion?

and joke at my expense correct?

As for weather, looks like the shear will be dropping off in the MDR over the next week or so huh. GFS even has a few CV waves hanging on.
SJ. I am done. Let it go. Talk to me in e-mail if you want to know. Yes, July is coming, I dont put too much stock in shear forecasts, so we will see. But climatology tells us that the shear should begin to drop.
I knoiw just thoguth i would psot the pic. Will not develop. Also cmc gfs ngops all forcasting development near 144-168 hrs. They say a vigoruous tropical wave will come off africa with a csc. Lets wait and see as that one will have the best chance. Also not to wishcast but la nina and or neutral conditions might be changing for the better. At least the shear forecasts indicates this. And when i say better i mean better for us not better for formation. Higher shear is possible. It is always possible though not lilkley that we could see an el nino form later in the season. Probabaly not though.
GOM IR Loop
Link
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 8:50 PM EDT on June 29, 2007. (hide)
Hey 23!! How have you been doing? I am still looking for rain??..LOL

Just here hanging out with the wife...what a night going to work early today it was pouring life crazy.Overall things have been good iam going to a barbecue at jim leonard's house on the 4th and Craig Setzer and a few others are going to be there so iam looking foward to that.How have you been ?Hope everything is ok.Adrian
texascanecaster number 1.models can't be trusted that far out. number 2. many vigorous waves have come of Africa this year that doesn't necessarily mean they are going to develop. Number 3.There is SAL, upper level winds and SST that are unfavorable in that area currently.
gfs shows vigorous wave as a little bit more than that at 168 hr. gfs 850 mb vorciticty: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007062918&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Of course drakoen i know that. I know all of that. However when all of the models come to a consesus like that and then carry to a closer hr. date 3 or 4 days in a row of model runs then chances are higgher. Also other models from other people are asying the same thing. As you said that is to far out to trust them but let us see if they continue to carry it closer in time. It was 240 hr. a few days ago now it is coming closer. If it gets to 100 or 78hr. then we have something. otherwise back to blob watching lol.
Sounds like fun 23. Gonna do the same on the 4th. Pool, BBQ. Stinks that the 4th is in the middle of the week, but oh well. Gotta work the next day:( Been doing very well. Had a nice time in Savannah with the wife last weekend.
Eaglesrock and SW as well as BB have eluded to the fact that the MJO is what will cause the large decrease in shear. Seems to make sense to me.

My only point Bob, was that if you don't want to discuss something then please don't come in and mock me on your first post.

Sorry to all who did not enjoy this little debate. I will leave it be now.

I still say that if you get to do what you truly love to do then you are one of the lucky ones. I enjoy my job, but do not love it. I do not jump out of bed eager to go to work every day. Some folks have jobs where they do get to have this mindset and they should appreciate it because some days the guy who picks up their garbage would much rather stay at home and let them wallow in their trash.
Also winds in the upper levels should become more favorable. As for ssts they are getting warmer every day and as for dust i do not know. Although dust usally can only hinder development until the system gets to the carrib or even the gom. Buy then the dust is usally gone. Howeverr if you combine it with other things then it is different. Not concerned about this feature thought still think nothing at all. epac disturbance died.
Gotta work the next day:(

Folks that truly love their job would not feel this way...Point made.
model concensus that far out can't be trusted as well. After loooking over all the models i only see the GFS spinning up something interest. That is a little far South perhaps in the ITCZ.
gfs...
removed
tcc, even if the waves do not develop, I think the bigger thing is the model consensus that the shear will drop off...
oops. shoulda worked...

trying again
removed
Drak, maybe not with actual genesis, but with shear I think it is a fairly safe bet
Posted By: StormJunkie at 1:09 AM GMT on June 30, 2007.

Drak, maybe not with actual genesis, but with shear I think it is a fairly safe bet



yea shear is easier to forecast.
tcc you are streeeetching the blog !

Hi everyone

Shear is low in the SW Caribbean and high pressure aloft. Lets see what the weekend brings

Link
i give up. Also YES sj. Congrats you just won one million dollars!!! just kidding lol. no but seriously that is the more important thing. Note the reformation of the northern branch of the pacific jet in the pacific in the exact same forecasts... if the area of calm shear neeutral to la nin conditions is creating died in the epac than strong shear would dominate the rest of the tropics on both sides for the entire season. That would be an el nino. Doubt it could happen.
Evening kman ☺

Especially with the fact that it can be attributed to the MJO Drak, at least that is what I am hearing...
there is still SAL. Here the current shear tendency.
I want to make a statement here, everyone.

I believe the tropical Atlantic is getting ready to explode with activity. Model cosensus for shear dropping off, SSTs getting warmer (especially around Africa; just two weeks ago one part of the western African coast had SSTs in the mid 60s, quite cold), and I notice the SAL is slightly weakening, as well. And with the ITCZ pulling more north, and more African Easterly Waves coming off Africa, the chances for at least three July storms are high.
hey SJ

Whats up mon?
N Atlantic Imagery

Link
tcc, I believe there is a 90% chance El Nio won't manifest itself at all this year. La Nia may not either, but a neutral with a cold-bias probably will.



i give it a try
tcc

Pls resize your images ( or better yet remove the ones that did not post ). Those of us not running firefox see a stretched blog

TIAV
And keep in mind that neutral years with a cold-bias are typically the WORST years in terms of significant activity, hurricane, and major hurricane landfalls. The troughs can't be used as an excuse for a 2006 year either, since I reiterate that the troughs are becoming less frequent and less stronger than they were previously from April to June.
This is what you are talking about. Notice in the circle other circular blobs like the one in the rectangle. Also the time frame.
Taz that didn't work, whatever you tried. <_<
img src=http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007062918&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=168hr
Drak

168 hrs is no better than looking in a crystal ball LOL
nop i can see that
i do agree on the SST warming and the Shear dropping of somewhat. But as of now i would like to focus my attention to the Caribbean where i think is our best chacne to get a tropical system going.
Posted By: kmanislander at 1:17 AM GMT on June 30, 2007.

Drak

168 hrs is no better than looking in a crystal ball LOL


yea LOL. thats what i am trying to explain.
tcc

are you still on ?

if so pls resize your images
Thanks
Drakoen, even if that's no better than looking into a crystal ball, it's really only a matter of time before the tropics explode in the Atlantic basin. I know everyone said that this time last year, but conditions this year are much more favorable.

You are right about the Carribean being our best spot for cyclogenesis, though (at least right now).
Yes kman refresh your page i pulled the screwed images. Also drak. look at the 850 mb vorciicty as the 950 is usally a little to sensitive even at close time range. I do not like going lower than 850.
95L is a goner next
Drak

I agree with you. The SW Caribbean is the area to watch. High pressure aloft is conducive to activity
4-panel GOM Zoom..WV Link
tcc
your 12:51 post still has an image that is stretching the blog
Good evening all. Things are looking promising in the tropical atlantic at the present. Yes, the SAL has pulled north, and the ITCZ is shaping up, and the African waves look to be lining up too. Ah, its all good to see !
and so after allk this time the cut off low lfooding texas is FINALLLY moving away thank god! national radar: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php
Hi there Pottery

Yes indeed the SAL has lifted to the N
Don't know if it will stay there though
Is this still 95L ? I cant find the information on it anymore .
GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV) GOM
Link
Here is something spinning out in the ATL near 27N 51W

95L is a goner
How you do Kman. When I came on here this eve. I noticed there were NO quarrels going on. Figured there must be something of interest happening at last ! All is looking like Hurricane season is starting up. .June, too soon
July stand by,
August a must
ect etc...........
How observant Pottery LOL

When the action really gets going you will not be able to follow the thread of the blog with posts coming like lightning LMAO
Taz

95L is not a goner. It is a 1014 mb low parked right over lake O in Fla.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:38 AM GMT on June 30, 2007.

95L is a goner


yeah Taz, I watched the sea breeze destory it...it was nice.
Can someone tell me what SAL means please?
Saharan Air Layer ( desert dust from W Africa )
Thanks kman
this is 90W dos not look like march any more dos it



but 91W is looking vary well right now and could be come a TD with in the next 24hrs or so



they gave us a 60% chance of rain for my area here in Tampa today. So far they were WRONG!!!
kman a what the heck is that a ull??? and b where is 91 w it is ovbiosuly not int our tropics.
Kman, with this dial-up I'm under heavy manners already !!!!
TAZ - Where is 91 headed to???
Is a stronger SAL more conducive for cyclone activity, or is it the latitudnal location?
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
740 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2007

IDC035-300230-
/O.CON.KMSO.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070630T0230Z/
CLEARWATER ID-
640 PM PDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM PDT FOR WESTERN
CLEARWATER COUNTY...

* AT 636 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF JAYPE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES
EAST OF OROFINO...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

CLEARWATER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 2
SW OF OROFINO AT 623 PM. THE FUNNEL CLOUD HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED...BUT THE STORM IS STILL POTENTIALL TORNADIC.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CARDIFF AND HEADQUARTERS AROUND 645 PM PDT.


THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 4642 11642 4637 11617 4660 11525 4691 11590

$$
HENRY
Posted By: Littleninjagrl at 6:52 PM PDT on June 29, 2007.

TAZ - Where is 91 headed to???


that would be 91W and i am not sure where it is going
Where is Clearwater County? We have the city of Clearwater which is in Pinellas county/
taz i meant to ask is it heading in the movement towards florida etc.
TCC

Must be. Quikscat not showing anything at the surface out there.

Pottery, no Broadband down there ??
Saharan Air Layer=Dust winds
montana i think do not know but not you guys. I am done posting random warnings
91W is located to the southeast of the Philippines in the West Pacific and is moving northwest, at least according to model forecasts it is (the W stands for West Pacific).
no no texas, don't get offended. I was just hoping our weather people weren't mis placing warnings and then the wrong people would get them. Not your fault.
Taz... maybe instead of just posting images like that, you should say where they are located... many people here think that it is in the Atlantic...
No not offended at all. Jeez i must portray feelings through chat all wrong. Have to work on that.
Posted By: scwindsaloft at 1:52 AM GMT on June 30, 2007.

Is a stronger SAL more conducive for cyclone activity, or is it the latitudnal location?


There were a few articles posted here about 5 days ago that discussed the impact of SAL on tropical systems. The conclusion as I recall was that the dust particles could serve as a nuclei for water droplets thus intensifying a system but it all depended on what the other atmospheric features were doing at the time. I believe that Michael STL might have been the poster. Made for an interesting read
warning is in idhao.
got it STL
Interesting kman...Naked swirl...
lol texas, I thought maybe I came across the wrong way. oh well we both meant it in a different way :)
Just a little over zealous tcc
yes SJ but those are the sneaky ones !
I am confused. Sj what is it in my comments that i am saying that sounds wrong like i am feeling bad or something? Also i actually do not know what does over zealous mean?
I was not dissing it at all kman and I agree.

Just noting that it was naked. Well defined circ though
I'll wumail ya tcc
thanks sj
SJ

Given where it is and the time of yr it is nothing more than an oddity IMO
I agree kman

But your point about those being the troublesome ones is still true, just maybe not with this one.

Katrina was a naked swirl at one point. Matter of fact, she was even less then a naked swirl at one point
scwindsaloft, check your blog please.
SJ

This is off topic for a sec but buoys 42057 and 58 are now both out of action. With the SW Caribbean being the potential hot spot for the next 2 to 3 weeks that is not good. The list of buoys out of service is surprisingly long !
g night all
good night tcc

c u tomorrow
Kman , I'm out in the sticks man...........
I'm trying to get water. After that, broardband. Maybe. LOL
Pottery

Wish I could help. Write your representative LMAO
Hey JP

I thought you were off on vacation LOL
I know kman. I am very frustrated with the buoy situation. It is a shame our tax dollars can not keep them running...
Well I think I may turn in for tonight and wait to see if anything exciting is happening tomorrow. The SW Caribbean is looking quite favourable now so if anything comes off the NW Colombian coast we might get some action.

Will check in tomorrow but in the meantime have a great evening all


Man...we're so completely wet. Notice the max rainfall on the top corner (32.4 inches?!)
Hey there guys. This is a new develop I see on this system. Does anyone know where its headed? The models look like its going out into the atlantic. Is this true?
TCW

That surface low does seem to be meandering to the WNW but shear is stripping the convection as fast as it fires
wake up evere one wind shear is not high in the gulf what are you all talking about wind shar is not high in the gulf at this time or any where out there






wind shear in the gulf is runing any where from 10 to 15kt right now


welcome to earth evere one where have you been mars?
Taz

30 knots over S Fla !
It looks like the winds are going to become more favorable towards the center of the gulf
Taz

Your map is from 1800Z
here is the current map
Link
but i dont call that high shear now 50kt is high wind shear 30kt is not high wind shear
ok but has dr m siad wind shear will be falling next week
Evening nola

Looks like shear is going to drop in lots of places fairly soon
I only bring it up because the front won't be here till Sunday, at the earliest. Haven't looked, nor trust a shear forecast for the weekend. The ULL in the Bay should keep shear rather high.
To me anything over 20 knots is borderline high and 30 and over is high
Hey Storm Junkie. How are you?? Thanks for sharing you anaylsis and knowledge with me.
ok JP
Let's see...

Warm ocean - check.
Wind shear falling - check.
Tropical waves forming - check.

All the ingrediants are coming together...

lol
What is going on with the front that may produce a storm?? I am at work and can't get all the info. What is up with this one?
swb-Isn't the ciruclation in the GOM?i still don't think it will form..where's the rain?it was an 80% chance of rain
Not the front Nola! The surface low from 95L is heading towards the gulf. Shear is high though!
Good nola Thanks ☺
None of the 18z models say anything encouraging about 95L or anywhere else in the Alantic basin for a while. Things are slowing coming together though...
Great do we have a time line when the winds are going to subside so development can begin to take place?? I think at least another week or less and things will begin to start showing signs of development
I know I've been posting a lot of my local radar... my apologies for anyone offended.

But does the 30+ in of rain and the cut off low over texas, ok, and ks, get fed by the lack of shear in the GoM?

wind shear is low in the gulf not high
30 inches of rain! Don't apologize for that. That should be top weather story.
Don't hurricanes cause upwelling which brings cold water from very deep and mixes it with warmer water closer to the surface? My fear is with little tropical activity except for Bermuda and the fish in the east Atlanic, the water below the surface may be the real problem
Look at what the loop curent (deep warm water) does to storms in the gulf. I hope the lack of storms last year didn't turn the west atlantic, Carribean and rest of the gulf into 1 big loop current.
If 30 inches of rain fell here, we would have some pretty gruesom stories to tell. If anyone survived it................
Keep an eye on 10N 75W interesting convection about to leave South American Coast in low shear has some warm waters ahead.
Hurricane Danny rained over 36 inches on to Dauphin Island, Alabama in 1997.
An estimated 25,000 poeple died in a rainstorm in coastal Venezuela a couple years ago. Estimated rainfall was 12 inches in 6 hrs. Entire villages washed into the sea. 36 inches would be 20 times worse than that.........
It seems that South Alabama is built to handle heavy rain. We get T-storms all the time dumping 3-4 inches of rain, with little or no flooding it seems.
If 30 inches of rain fell here, we would have some pretty gruesom stories to tell. If anyone survived it................
My son lives out there. You should see the size and number of the concrete canals.
TCW, where do you get that shear is high in the Gulf? 20 knots in the eastern Gulf is moderate, not high, and will not completely "destroy" 95L's low if it moves in there....

Elsewhere, shear is 5-10 knots, except for one small area in the southern Gulf above the Yucatan, where shear is 30 knots. That's what's tearing the thunderstorms that moved into the Gulf a few hours ago apart.
Before anyone says the thunderstorms by the Yucatan in the southern Gulf could refire overnight with the diurnal max, that may be true, but if 30 knot shear is still there, it won't last until the diurnal max. Also, even if convection did refire, the system does not have any turning whatsoever. The entire cloud system itself is moving north, with convection being sheared off to the northeast. If the cloud system continues to move north without dying, though, then we may have to watch it, especially if it meanders.
Pat, you have been posting links to the Gulf. Kori, you just mentioned the clouds that came of the Yucatan today. Has anyone noticed the tiny blob in the Bay of Campeche? It has just sat there most of the day, only during the past 3or so hours starting to move north noticably. It is on the western edge of the 30 shear. For some reason, it caught my eye this morning.
Need to monitor this
The area coming into the Caribean . What direction is it moving in maybe North ?
Also what areas could develop ?
Next town over from me in Alvin Texas had held the record for something like 42 inches in 24 hours back in the late 70's. I think it was recently broken.
Looks like some weather headed this way. LOL.
Posted By: Hurricaniac at 4:04 AM GMT on June 30, 2007.

Looks like some weather headed this way. LOL.


Lucky!
Here in Savannah, we get 2 inches of rain and parts of the city flood. While downtown Savannah was built on a 40-foot bluff, the rest of the city was built on either cypress swamp, salt marsh, or reclaimed rice patties. That is compounded by the fact that we have the 2nd highest tides on the east coast (after the Bay of Fundy) and when we get a quick, hard shower during high tide the storm water systems can't handle it.

Even though we have a huge rain deficit, a little over a week ago we got 3 inches or so of rain and neighborhoods flooded. I only pray that we never get a major hurricane here during my lifetime or it'll make Katrina look like a spring shower.
We had 12 to 15 inches of rain across the area here in 3 to 4 hours last year on a crazy day. Forget the daily total, but we picked up a couple more inches before the day was done.


I live in pinnelas and drainage is very good. Flooding was relatively minor even from that deluge. And we weren't in a drought either at that time. Was about normal preceding it.

Posted By: brazocane at 4:04 AM GMT on June 30, 2007.

Next town over from me in Alvin Texas had held the record for something like 42 inches in 24 hours back in the late 70's. I think it was recently broken.



Are you talking about nationwide? Cause that aint the record. And I don't think any 42 inch rain record in 24 hours was broken recently. I would have defintely remembered.



Yankeetown Florida received 48 inches in 24 hours from a hurricane that came in and stalled over Florida, thr deep intense eyewall convection remained in tact in the eywall. As a result, being it was the eyewall of a hurricane and it wasn't going anywhere, it dropped a water nuke over yankeetown Florida and the surrounding cities.


Posted By: HopquickSteve at 3:01 AM GMT on June 30, 2007.

I know I've been posting a lot of my local radar... my apologies for anyone offended.

But does the 30+ in of rain and the cut off low over texas, ok, and ks, get fed by the lack of shear in the GoM?





They haven't had 30 plus inches from this low pressure area. Don't exaggerate. The entire section where that rain fell would be a huge shallow lake for a few months if that much rain fell over those areas.


Yes rain has been horrible in those areas, and its record flooding and incredible heavy rains for that location have fallen. But Texas is still a landmass LOL.


Florida could haldle such rain, having sandy soil, surrounded by water, lots of wetlands and rivers.


But the great plains couldn't handle such rain without the end of area effect as we know it if it rained that much there.
Found this:

United States' heaviest 24-hour rainfall -- On this date (July 25) in 1979 the greatest single 24-hour rainstorm in the United States began. In a 24-hour period from the 25th into the 26th, 43 inches of rain fell at Alvin, Texas.(07/25/99)
Posted By: HopquickSteve at 2:37 AM GMT on June 30, 2007.



Man...we're so completely wet. Notice the max rainfall on the top corner (32.4 inches?!)




See that image you posted that says max rain 32 inches, (and I want to point out now so you dont get confused).



Thats ground clutter thats built up on the storm total.

You'll see that with radar sites that have almost no rain or none at all and it will say max rain 20 inches or 32 like that said.


Still though, between 4 and 8 inches has fallen here with a few spots locally up to 12. Thats disturbing. Because grounds were aready very saturated at that time before this moved in. This is brtual death causing rainfall.


Posted By: BahaHurican at 5:12 AM GMT on June 30, 2007.

Found this:

United States' heaviest 24-hour rainfall -- On this date (July 25) in 1979 the greatest single 24-hour rainstorm in the United States began. In a 24-hour period from the 25th into the 26th, 43 inches of rain fell at Alvin, Texas.(07/25/99)


Where is the source from?
"On July 25, 1979 Tropical Storm Claudette stalled over Alvin and inundated the region with 45 inches in 42 hours. That total included 43 inches in 24 hours, the maximum 24-hour rainfall in US history."

That is what I found on Wikipedia and other sites still say Alvin holds the record.

But I was thinking some town in Florida got like 48 in. must have been Yankeetown, but when did that happen and what hurricane.

Check this site Jedkins

Link

I think it would be considered reputable wouldnt you.
United States' heaviest 24-hour rainfall -- On this date (July 25) in 1979 the greatest single 24-hour rainstorm in the United States began. In a 24-hour period from the 25th into the 26th, 43 inches of rain fell at Alvin, Texas.(07/25/99)

This was from Tropical Storm Claudette.
5 September 1950, Yankeetown, Florida: Hurricane Easy drops the greatest 24-hour rainfall in US weather records. The storm deluges Yankeetown on the upper west coast of Florida, with 38.7 inches (983 mm) of rain.

Its kinda hard to argue with the data on that site....
Okay this clears it up:

"The heaviest rainfall to occur in 24 hours was measured in Yankeetown during Hurricane Easy (1950), 38.70 inches/983 mm. This is also the highest known point storm total maximum related to any tropical cyclone which has impacted Florida,[15] and by itself would be the highest known rainfall total for any month from any location within Florida. This rainfall amount remained the national 24-hour rainfall record until Tropical Storm Claudette (1979).[16] Heavy rainfall events have fallen due to stalled fronts near the state as well, and occur during the March through May and October through November timeframe"
around 75w 10 north if that big blob gets in the caribiean we might have somthing to watch latter on today as they at the nhc stay tuned .!
I'm out, folks. My computer seems to be double-posting me, so I'm heading out before I actually start seeing double too . . .

G'night!
753. 0741
their area near bermuda that need to be watch doing weekend but it look like going out to sea 27.8 57.0 Link
Well The shear ate that one up. I wonder if any of it will come back.



The area near Panama is still impressive.

The Northern part of it seems to want to take a more Northerly track.

Campeche is flaring up from some stuff crossing from the pacific too.
The last three days here just south of Brandon, FL, they've been promising 60-70% chance of heavy rain, but we've seen nary a drop of the stuff.

Very disappointing.
Does the blob N. of Panama have any chance of doing anything except going into the Eastern Pac.
bless yer heart tampa...we finally have been blessed with some of the good stuff the past 2 days...a total of an inch..not much...but we consider it a blessing...we here are praying for a tropical depression...it's the only thing that will save us...
Spiceymonster whats going to happen is it is trying to go North West as it trys windshear is light and it could develop the top part of it is going North this might need to be monitored .
So basically if it can get away from land then we might have something on our hands.
Watch the Caribbean. Link
Here are the steering currents. Link
This system has a chance to make it into the Gulf.
Do you guys think the area in the Caribean will be an Invest later today ?
It needs to have a low pressure center.
good morning all

The area just offshore Colombia has high pressure directly overhead and only 5 to 10 knots of shear. It would need to pull more to the wnw away from land to have a shot at developing IMO

Link
Link

morning all. i don't know if anyone else can see this but it's an animated regional radar map. above tallahassee, in SW georgia, there is a wierd expanding perfect circle. looks different that a storm. like someone showed once more like a volcanic eruption. can anyone else see that ?
It looks like ground clutter Florida.
Here is another view Link
Baranquilla Colombia has wnw winds @5 mph so there may be a weak low in that blob
thank wpb for that gif. i saved it. totally wierd looking, i've never seen something like that... a perfect expanding circle. does that happen alot? "ground clutter"?
Observed at: Albany, Georgia
Elevation: 197 ft
73 F
Clear
Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 70 F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.02 in (Rising)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -(Above Ground Level)

No clouds and pressure is rising in Albany, Georgia which went through the circle thing.