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Disturbance 95L over Florida weakens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:18 AM GMT on June 30, 2007

Clouds and showers associated with a weak low pressure system (dubbed 95L by NHC) over South Florida have become very disorganized. Wind shear has increased to a high 25-30 knots. This high wind shear, combined with the fact that the storm's center is over land gives it no chance for development today.

Long range radar from Melbourne, Florida shows little activity over Florida this morning, but this will change during the afternoon when the afternoon sea breezes get going and help create the lift needed to trigger thunderstorms. Heavy rains of one to four inches were common across South Florida and the northwestern Bahama Islands Friday. Lesser amounts are likely today.

A trough of low pressure is scheduled to push off the U.S. Southeast Coast on Monday, and will probably sweep 95L out to sea in front of it. There is a chance 95L could develop on Monday as it moves to the northeast away from land, in front of the trough. Wind shear is forecast to drop on Monday to about 10-20 knots in this region, which is low enough to allow for some tropical development. However, none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation anywhere in the Atlantic over the coming week.

Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the disturbance over Florida.

One other area to watch is the region just north of Panama in the Southwest Caribbean. Wind shear values have dropped to 10 knots there this morning, and are forecast to remain low for several days.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


...nite gang!

Dieses Wettersystem sollte durch die sinkende Abflurinne aufgesogen werden und zu ENE weg getragen werden!
504. RL3AO
And its July 1st so just have some patience. Bad seasons result in more damage and deaths, but I guess if it makes you happy, heres to 50 named storms.
Calm down....geez go have a BBQ or watch some fireworks, the season will get busy soon enough.
How is the panama blob? yesterday she/he was trying to get off land. Did it finally ship off.
How is the panama blob? yesterday she/he was trying to get off land. Did it finally ship off.

The Panama blob died yesterday.

:( oh well next blob that has some interest is where?
Look at that trough in the GOM no wonder nothing can form there, it almost goes from the US to the Yucatan,
Wind shear is low in the Central Atlantic, especially between 40W and 50W. A sign of the season? Link
Pig Latin = Igpay Atinlay

Then there is the IB language

Pig Latin = Pibig Libatin

I must be really bored !!

Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 11:11 AM GMT on July 01, 2007. (hide)
Wind shear is low in the Central Atlantic, especially between 40W and 50W. A sign of the season?.

Thats correct and lets hope steering currents are on our side.Adrian
515. IKE
The tropics throughout the globe....

"There are no active Tropical Storm advisories."......

There's only 1 disturbance, in the western PAC and it's prospects are poor.

*double yawn*
what about the blob over land around 65. any chance it has a shot when it gets over water?
Good Morning...Things are quiet today in the tropics and the front which was forcasted to "sweep" the Florida disturbance away is going to stall around the Florida/GA/AL border tommorow....This will bring much needed rain to North Florida and it looks the the regular summer pattern for Florida is finally starting to kick-in.....Given the present trough in the GOM, and the dropping shear in the tropics, once these systems "clear out", I would anticipate some type of development in the Carib or Gulf late this coming week (especially if a trough/front remnants are left around towards the end of the week)...I guess we'll be blob watching for the next several days waiting to see if something develops.....Have a good day all.
Probably Not Acesover
Ike...You'll probably be getting some strong thunderstorms again this afternoon and tommorow...
Mornin' All,

I'm out, gotta do somethings.

Be back This Afternoon!
Have a great Sunday!
521. IKE
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 7:42 AM CDT on July 01, 2007.
Ike...You'll probably be getting some strong thunderstorms again this afternoon and tommorow...

Yup...had some yesterday from about 5 pm til around 8 or 9.

60% chance of rain today, Monday and Tuesday.

Looks like a weak low is suppose to form and get kicked NE later this week..according to the models..over the tri-state area.
Thanks Tstorm2. Just a shot in the dark. We need the rain right through the center of the state bad. Lake O broke another low water level today.
Lake O water level Link
Whats interesting about the Florida thing is that a low center with some rotation appears to have re formed up in the gulf. eh - perhaps not, looking at the WV im not sure what that is.

looks to be mid and upper levels. Cant find anything really all that much on the surface. Guess we could get some rain form it, its firing up so early.
Happy Canada day to our northern neighbors.

Morning all ☺

Area N of the Bahamas looks kinda of interesting...

Wow. Lake O is still very low.. We're drowning here in Dade/Broward, while the Lake gets no rain.
That blob over the Bahamas has a lot of convection this morning.
It is interesting chess, but as LRandyB just pointed out to me the front is helping the convection to fire and once it moves on it is likely the convection will die off. Although right now it looks to me like there is some circulation on the WNW side of the convection
Thanks for the input SJ.
i think that blob over the Bahamas is what was 95L
Taz that thing over the bahamas is just a front. 95l was a wave.
Good morning Taz, SJ, all.
All appears to mostly quiet. It'll be busy enough, soon enough.

I'm off to prepare a late lunch: jerk chiken, collards, corn and cornbread.

Have a good day, all! bbl
Morning mlc, sounds good, enjoy!
Good morning everyone. Hotter than the 4th circle of Hades already this morning....
Don't worry all....or maybe you should worry....

With the shear forecasted for July, this is just the calm before the storm.

In a couple weeks, maybe less, there will be "blobs o' promise" all over the place.

There is no doubt that July will bring more convective activity than we saw in June. Hate sounding like a broken record here but the pattern we were in last month and the pattern we are shifting to in July is normal.
Good morning to all the lovely 1st of July. Yeh it is very hot here in Florida and it's only 10:40.
Gonna be a hot one here on the bayou....
541. IKE
Latest NAM model run...12Z...shows a weak low in the NE GOM in 78 to 84 hours.


The GFS and other models are pretty much showing it too. Should bring a lot of rain to the eastern gulf states.
I still say the area N of the Bahamas is interesting. I know I have been told it is mid to upper level, but the rotation could work down and it is a well defined circulation. Just on the WNW edge of/ under the convection
This is a little off topic, but we just moved away from my beloved cajun country into a house about a half mile West of the Mississippi River near Baton Rouge, LA.

Everyone says the Ms. river levies are safe and sound, but I'm still a little afraid. I'm going to research this topic a little. But before I start, I thought I'd ask y'all.

Are hurricanes a threat to the levies of the MS. river? In New Orleans, it was the Mr. Go outlet (Mississippi River Gulf Outlet) that ultimately lead to the problems.

Here near Baton Rouge, we are further North, so hurricanes winds and surge aren't as much of a threat as they were down on the bayous. Now I just worry about the river.

Maybe someone can explain my worries away. In the meantime, I'll be doing a little homework on this topic so I can better understand our new location and situation.

tc, talk to patrap. He may have some info on this. Good source that patrap..

And welcome, nice to have ya here.
545. ryang
New blog up!!