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Disturbance 94L in Central Atlantic; NHC management changes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:58 PM GMT on August 28, 2007

A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (labeled "invest 94L" by NHC this morning) has become a little better organized this morning, and does have the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. Wind shear is a favorable 5-10 knots over 94L, and shear should not be a problem for it over the next few days. The system is not well-organized, with a sloppy, elongated circulation, as seen on last night's QuikSCAT pass. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the storm. The system does have a major impediment to development--the presence of a large, dusty area of dry air surrounding its north side (Figure 1). Water vapor satellite loops of the region don't show any significant moistening of the region around 94L occurring, and this will have to happen before the system can develop into a tropical depression. If the storm can develop a better-organized circulation, it will be able to pump more moisture into the surrounding atmosphere and help itself out. Current visible satellite loops shows that this is not happening at present--the thunderstorm activity associated with 94L is rather weak.

None of the reliable computer models develop 94L. The system should track through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain. I expect that the earliest 94L could become a tropical depression would be Thursday, and it is unlikely the Lesser Antilles would experience anything worse than a 50 mph tropical storm. It is more likely that 94L will still be a tropical disturbance when it passes through the Lesser Antilles.


Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image of the Central Atlantic from 8:15am EDT 8/28/07. The brown colors denote very dry and dusty air from the Saharan Desert.

Honduras disturbance
A westward-moving tropical wave is bringing heavy rains to Honduras and Nicaragua today. Due to its close proximity to land, development of this wave into a tropical depression is not expected. The wave is under 10-15 knots of wind shear. None of the reliable models are predicting that this system will develop.

Computer model update
The UKMET and GFS models are indicating the possible development of a tropical depression by Thursday or Friday off the coast of Africa. There is a large surge of moisture with at least one strong tropical wave embedded in it coming off the coast of Africa this week. This moister air should make a more favorable environment for a tropical depression to form in than the one 94L finds itself in.

Most of the models also predict a low pressure system will develop off the North Carolina coast along an old frontal boundary on Thursday. Such a development may be an ordinary extratropical low pressure system, but could make the transition to a tropical system if the shear drops low enough.

NHC management changes
Acting director Dr. Ed Rappaport of The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will continue on the job until the end of this hurricane season, NOAA management revealed yesterday. Rappaport replaced director Bill Proenza on July 9, following an extraordinary few months of tumult at NHC. Joining the NHC staff on September 4 will be a new interim deputy director--Bill Read, who currently serves as the meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service's Houston-Galveston office. Deputy director was the post Rappaport held prior to July 9. Bill Read applied for the directorship of NHC when Max Mayfield retired, but was not awarded the job. His arrival at NHC during the peak of hurricane season will be a welcome addition, as he has considerable experience dealing with hurricane emergencies.

In an apparent effort to follow some of the management changes recommended by the independent review team that performed the snap inspection of NHC in early July (see Attachment 9 of the Senate testimony from July), a new manager of the ten hurricane forecasters has been appointed as well. Rick Knabb, who is one of the six senior hurricane specialists, will be the new manager, and will be Rappaport's backup for TV interviews during hurricane emergencies.

It is still undecided where former director Proenza will wind up, but the chairs of two Senate subcommittees investigating the matter have recommended that Proenza be returned to his former job as head the NWS Southern Region.

Next update
Tomorrow is the 2-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. I'll discuss my experience with blogging about the storm, and give an update on 94L and the rest of the tropics.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Those of you who think the SE low will develop, where do you think it will head? I don't think it will develop, but IF it does, I suspect it will do a loop, skirt the NC coast, and out to sea (or just out to sea). Thats what these storms tend to do.
94L outflow inproving looks like it is getting
his (Felix) act together. GAME ON HURRICANE LOVERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lets review. QuikScat Wave near Honduras, no spin. Wave coming off of Africa, SPIN!!!

So now I'm going to show how uninformed I am - please explain this link that looks like little cat scratches!
the survey is much better than arguing over who's right & wrong imo
Those of you who think the SE low will develop, where do you think it will head?

South, then north, then northeast...Like someone said earlier..another Ophelia...going in circles..lol
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN LIMITED
THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
94l starting to fire up now td by 5am
94L yes...SE no...afrcica wave yes
Those of you who think the SE low will develop, where do you think it will head? I don't think it will develop, but IF it does, I suspect it will do a loop, skirt the NC coast, and out to sea (or just out to sea). Thats what these storms tend to do.

I don't think it will be a loop, per se. I should drift SE, meander a bit, then move back NW. A sharp fish hook path, if you will. I think it will develop. The interaction with the cold front and high will slow it down, and it will have great condiditions during this time.
unofficial invest: will not develop

se coast low : will develop

african wave: will develop
1018. GoofOff
It looks like the SAL (Sahara Air Layer) is starting to dissipate, so that will probably let the season become more active. By the same token, if the systems are coming off Africa further north, it gives them a better chance to be fish storms. I am living on the east coast of Florida, about 1 mile inland from the ocean. We went about 30 years without much of anything and then took direct hits from Frances, Jeanne and Wilma in 2004 and 2005. I would prefer another 30 year wait for the next one. Also, I don't make guesses on blobs or even waves. Too many variables.
Boy! You folks are fiesty tonight...

What about the "thingy" (blob, whatever) in the W Carribean that is supposed to move W but appears to be moving N?
the national hurricane center said that the SE disturbance was drifting southward so is there gonna be any certain direction or a fish one?
Like I said, update it a time or two but not everytime you add a name to the list. Its spamming the blog.
gnight TheStormWillSurvive
Unoffical invest: Not in the caribbean, no way.

94L: Yes, weak.

SE low: yes, weak

African wave: Yes, strong
Ok Storm... have a goodnight.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:42 AM GMT on August 29, 2007.

its not against the rules, its just ANNOYING and WASTE OF SPACE

lol

sorry had to be said


I asked the admin and am waiting on a reply will get back to you also if you do not like it you can ignore me
ok now gnight for real-- pm me if you need anything else
I have to agree, you could post it in your OWN blog and just let us know when it gets updated.
Posted By: mississippiwx23 at 2:45 AM GMT on August 29, 2007.

I have to agree, you could post it in your OWN blog and just let us know when it gets updated.

tried that with other things no one goes over there
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:48 AM GMT on August 29, 2007.

doesnt need to be posted that often Storm

fine if you say so I need to go to bed now I have to get up early tomorrow
How bout perhaps updating it every 30 mins or so and add all the new people that have taken it in that timespan? Every 5 mins is a bit annoying and I won't add to the spam by taking a survey which will add to more spam. I'm just a lurker sooo take that as you will but you will be ignored if it continues.
The vote does take up alot of space. But it is a good idea.

94L not developing quickly or anything. upstream developments will determine it's future track. it's going to have to fight with dry air, but should win out after a bit.
western caribbean--doesn't want to follow the rules. i thought the NHC take of land interaction was sure fire, but the models taking it on a near shore trajectory turned out to be on the ball. possible that high level shear is helping whatever mid-level vorticity is there to translate north, and seems to be providing more ventilation than damage. belize is in the way, though. if it keeps its track more wnw it will cross more ocean in the BOC and possibly succeed where the low that invaded mexico yesterday failed--whatever is at the surface will travel over land and likely allow the upper circulation to become better defined... and take right off when it goes over water.
off the carolinas more shortwave energy got left behind than projected by most models, on a more southerly trajectory. it's going to be stuck in a col and probably move erratically late this week. a shortwave should clip by around weekend time, but it's unclear if this will shunt it off. could just nudge it west then let the ridge grab it again. thing i'm not seeing is how it will shape the environment. this sucker looks like it will develop. it is going to modify the nearby upper features, and lay the groundwork for whatever 94L is to do it's thing.
all three systems can develop. the wave coming off also has some potential. ought to be something out there tomorrow, and probably at least two somethings on thursday. the area of the S. Carolina coast its going to be around for a few days while sitting over the gulf stream, its going to become better organized in my opinion... i do think that the next front coming into the east coast this weekend however will catch it and drag it off to the NE. I would expect to see surf pick up along the SE coast in coming days, and some good NE flow down the east coast, perhaps some dry air?. 94L if it can survive another two-three days in the atlantic.its going to be some player down the road in the carb. the mid and upper level look impressive for the carib. blob(i think the Navy will throw up an Invest tag on it tonight around mid-night)... Pressures in the western Carb. are not falling at the surface at last check.. there is really a strong east to west flow at the surface. If it can mix down to the surface, it may have a chance...i'm just not sure it can right now... If the storms presist for the night, it may need some watching...Man, i feel bad for the folks that just went threw Dean, MORE TROPICAL mositure on the way.

So post the results on your own blog and update the blog every 30 mins or so. Not on the main blog
I have to agree it's a very good idea, but the amount of times results are posted on this one is a very bad idea.
it was mor fun reading the updates sws then reading what everyone thinks about them lol
Sounds like a wonderful compromise to me :)
send him a wu mail
Strength and fish predictions;

94L- Cat 2
SE US- TS, may start as a STS
Africa- Cat 4

Good night.
will this be the biggest monster this year ekkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkLink
jeez...
I did like the survey idea. [
The CPC thinks that the tropical Atlantic bears close watching; we may also be seeing the start of a long-awaited awakening of the global tropics:




Although the second week only says anything about the Atlantic:

1065. TXKiwi
If 94L did develop and head towards the carribean, what is the outlook for blocking highs or ULL to push it west rather than drifting north?
1066. msphar
September will have to be a big month in order to get close to the early forecast guesstimates that were posted back up the thread. So far June July and August haven't really rocked out despite the oft repeated view that things are humming along at slightly greater than normal levels. The waves coming off of Africa will have to be more productive than previous estimates in order to get the big storms count high enough. I still have doubts that we will see a strong enough finish to the season but that is just optimistic wishcasting on my part.
I hate to differ with you, but I really do believe we will reach at least 15, but it will all rely on the next 2 weeks. Should the waves materialize like modeled, and as I do expect, we should have at least 4 more storms in 2 weeks time. That puts us at 9 and we arent even through September. The la nina means a continued season into the end of November, so there is a fairly good chance we get 6 more storms for the send half of September, October and November.
I think that we will have a very active late season, maybe 3-4 storms in September, 3-4 in Octmber and 2-3 in November and possibly one storm in December, which would bring us to 13-17 total storms (very possible; notice that what I posted above mentions "La Nina" about half a dozen times, and according to the NHC, November is normally more active than July). If this doesn't happen, 2007 will be a very studied year in the future, in terms of why it was so inactive worldwide, then again there are signs that activity worldwide is about to pick up (also interesting that the Atlantic has had the strongest storm so far this year, that doesn't happen that often, besides 2005).
msphar-heard you mention a particular part of the globe the other nite.
Use any of the loops across the top.
Of course long range is ?able.
But could be a good indicator of cv activity.



Link
STL, I think the E. Pac. might be getting that stronger storm this week.
1071. msphar
yes I agree it still statistically possible for things to work out and for three robust months of storm development but probabilities are becoming an issue.

One thing that I've noticed in the short time that I've become aware of storms is that when a large storm develops it sort of drains the basin it is in of concurrent activity. So I think you will need improbable good luck to see the excess of activity that will be necessary. But I think we can agree to disagree on all this forecasting stuff in the meantime. Lets see how Sept turns out.
I am not saying huge storms, I am only saying named storms. The next two (SE and Catl, should they develop) will be very weak systems. However, the GFS does allow the SE system to hang around for over 80 hours, thats a very long time to get its act together. It also keeps it a low, or at least an area of low pressure the entire time.

The GFS does try to create a closed isobar on the Catl wave, for a short period of time.
Posted By: msphar at 3:58 AM GMT on August 29, 2007.

One thing that I've noticed in the short time that I've become aware of storms is that when a large storm develops it sort of drains the basin it is in of concurrent activity.


Katrina followed two weeks later by Rita - K thru R in two weeks. How long do you consider the basin to be drained, probabalistically?
Another interesting thing is that the MJO has all but died; it is actually totally blank near the bottom (most recent), I haven't ever seen that before:



Although there are still areas of enhanced/suppressed convection, the former mainly over Africa (perhaps good for making stronger tropical waves):

No argument here.
Would be the best for all.

There is also 95e, if anyone didnt notice (I didnt, but I was writing a paper the last few hours).
My internet connection got cut off after i asked if Taz was ban so i did get to see any response but he did send me mail saying that he did indeed got ban. Sorry to hear Taz.

Have a good night all...hope u will be blogging with us 2morrow taz.
Latest GFS 00z shows closed low off East FL Coast in 72 hours.
1079. msphar
Wow! There still intelligent life on this thread. I am amazed at all the data and thoughtful comments that suddenly appeared. Its a lot to digest. Miss, boob, Michael and Blow it will take me all evening to pick through what youall just posted.

There is STILL a closed low 144 hours out off of the Florida East coast...I dont think it will stay around that long, but wow.
1081. msphar
Blow, I went back and looked at 2005. We all know that 2005 is the outlier for all time. But looking closely at it things are not total hyper.

Starting with the K storm which began 23 aug.
Storm, start dates:
L 28 Aug
M 01 Sep
N 05 Sep
O 06 Sep
P 17 Sep
R 18 Sep

There was a large gap between the O and P storms and almost a month between the K and R storm start dates. N and O were close in time and P and R were close in time. But proximities of both of these pairs were pretty remote from their respective pair.

In a more standard year there will be a larger gap between named storms on average given that 2005 is the outlier.
I know this is not relavent to the blog, and I'm very sorry but I need help. Is anybody here good with building computers? If so, please sent me a message, because I have an important question. Sorry about that. And about the wave exiting Africa right now, it appears that it has very little rotation with it, and may be too far North.
Is it me or does the CMC seem to develope almost everything this year??
Its not you, it just does.

The GFS backed off quite considerably on the last run. Something to think about, but I expect it to revert back soon.
1085. KRL
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 4:03 AM GMT on August 29, 2007.
Another interesting thing is that the MJO has all but died; it is actually totally blank near the bottom (most recent), I haven't ever seen that before:


Michael, got a good link for seeing the MJO data?

Is that blank a positive or negative factor for tropical formations?

Thnx!
1086. KRL
Posted By: kabraxis at 4:44 AM GMT on August 29, 2007. (hide)
I know this is not relavent to the blog, and I'm very sorry but I need help. Is anybody here good with building computers?


Hi Kab,

I know how to build computers from scratch if you need some help.

K
Whats your q or prob Kab?
Been a long time since I've seen this kind of push off Africa.
What a beut.
WOW

1089. msphar
94L seems to be behaving differently from other storms. It seems to have stronger convection during the day and weaker convection at night. Or am I just seeing things incorrectly ?
1090. LLJ
We have a 1009mb low associated with a tropical wave that is just now easing towards 11 North...and 42 West.

Anytime now before 50W we should see a NW or NNW motion.
1091. LLJ
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 18W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. BROAD LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 36W-46W.
1092. Blink
94L has definitaly lost its punch tonight. It's diurnal max and it may have sucked in some dry air. The wind shear remains low according to cimss. It could refire as it moves westward. We'll see.
Link
Blink at 6:25 AM GMT on August 29, 2007.

94L has definitaly lost its punch tonight. It's diurnal max and it may have sucked in some dry air

opps i think you spoke too soon hehehe 94l heard you and just woke up check again
The image http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST MAP has the low's track seemingly more north of wnw.
1095. LLJ
Our little declared Invest 94L....now past 40W. Anytime now a TD is in the mix. Shear is not a big problem....the dry air to the North is a slight hinderance.
The closer this gets to 50W......the better chance for development.
We're getting into some serious developmental territory.
yes mlc i think we will see the models also shfting more north in the next run
Missing
CURRENT MID LEVELS WATER VAPOR
Here's the current view of water vapor at the mid levels from the cimss.
1098. LLJ
That's my favorite Sat shot! LOL!
Thumbnail
Latest NAVY MicroVAP
No SHEAR or tendency to speak of in the next 24, low all the way into the GOM.
Tropical - GOES-East IR 4 Floater
Tropical Latest Image - GOES-East IR 4 Floater #1


...the cluster is pulling together.
se coast blob is also looking good
as its moving south
1103. LLJ
Looks like skinny Cows swimming out there right now.
The wave that emerged today is a bad boy.
94L will make a curve to the NW or NNW soon. If it makes TD status .....once this hits around 50W....stuff happens.
This is a good LINK to take a look around. You see the movement of the trough and patterns shaping the steering. (little slow to load, but worth the wait).
1105. LLJ
Here's the surface cast....

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

1106. LLJ
Man, doesn't that suck? That arrow is not pointing West anymore!
Yeah, LLJ, it looks like we've got some serious players trying to get in the game, right now. Just looked at (to be 95L) sure is moving south! And, looking good, too, StormyBill. Not sure if that front over the mid-CONUS will catch it!!!
I'm like Nash, now...Gabrielle sounds like it could be a rough one!
1109. LLJ
Yeah, we're too far out to know yet about CONUS steering. But one thing is for sure.....this Invest is no longer on a straight Westward track.
1110. LLJ
LOL! I'm not like anyone. This Invest should be turning now and I believe it is.
The closer to 50W will show us the potential intensity.
I think you're right, LLJ, likely to track north of Dean's path.

...this is what bothers me...that "bullseye" sitting just south of the MS/LA coast!
1112. LLJ
Current WV shows the broad low involved. Interesting that the convection is mostly to the East.
Yeah, LLJ, but there's a finger of moisture running out into that more stable air in front of it on wnw side, plowing the way!
1114. LLJ
If there was a LOW-LEVEL trade whack this convection would not be hanging off to the east. Possibly that convection is ready to start wrapping.
Don't know for sure....but this Invest has a nice low-level circulation.
1115. LLJ
but there's a finger of moisture running out into that more stable air in front of it on wnw side, plowing the way!


Yes, Absolutely! Nice call Cowboy.
...I'm spent, gentlemen. Enjoyed it StormyBill and LLJ, sure was a lil quieter. Headed that way, too now. Work comes early.

MLCgoodnight4.gif

"Awareness, preparedness and safety" is everything!
Have a good one!

MLC <------------out for some shut-eye!
1117. LLJ
Gnite Bro!
...real quick, I thought I'd take another close look at spin. This WV-enhanced link shows that low-level spin I think you see, LLJ. Take a look and see.

MLC <----def out!
1119. LLJ
I'll look ....but just for you. I hate loops! LOL!
If you step the frames, in the last two, it looks like the convection is pulling around what might be an llc.

...heck, dunno. My eyes are fuzzy now, got to get some sleep. Later.
1121. LLJ
Looks that way to me....but I'm getting old....LOL!
1122. LLJ
Not too old to see we have a NW motion now:

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

1123. LLJ
Yeah, that Blue line model hanging off the right side....is the UKMET....one of Doctor Master's reliable models!

Whoopah!
WHOA!--can just see the blog in the morning! Later, LLJ.

..........zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz's for me.
1125. LLJ
Since the Doctor only has two reliable models....the UK is out to lunch!
1126. LLJ

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 281445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 28 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-096

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 31/1800Z NEAR 13N 58W.



1127. LLJ
13N....that's more North than 10.5 isn't it?
1128. mit5003
hello

all

td 11 es almost here!
mit5003, aren't suppose to be sleeping at this time ?
Seems like 94L might turn into Felix.
Could be a dangerous storm.
Could also be a fishstorm.
But with a more northern track then dean
this should be watched closely.
1131. mit5003
Posted By: JustSouthofEquator at 8:56 AM GMT on August 29, 2007.

mit5003, aren't suppose to be sleeping at this time ?

lol its morning where i am!

btw 95l and 95e has formed

masters update the tropical weather page plz
1132. LLJ
Doctor Masters will keep you waiting....and your invests do not form...they are declared!
oh yeah sorry, darn time zone difference
1134. LLJ
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME
1135. LLJ
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
356 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --A WEAKENING FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT
THROUGH THU. THEN...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
FRI INTO SAT...BEFORE DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN. HIGH PRES
THEN MOVES BACK IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A DEEPENING LOW PRES AREA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT S
TODAY AND BRING DRIER AIR WITH IT ON IT/S WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LOWER OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT NOT GET RID OF THEM
COMPLETELY.
1136. LLJ
Stop posting greetings!
1137. guygee
Dr. M wrote:
"In an apparent effort to follow some of the management changes recommended by the independent review team that performed the snap inspection of NHC in early July (see Attachment 9 of the Senate testimony from July), a new manager of the ten hurricane forecasters has been appointed as well. Rick Knabb, who is one of the six senior hurricane specialists, will be the new manager, and will be Rappaport's backup for TV interviews during hurricane emergencies.

It is still undecided where former director Proenza will wind up, but the chairs of two Senate subcommittees investigating the matter have recommended that Proenza be returned to his former job as head the NWS Southern Region.
"

Proenza being re-promoted to head of the NWS Southern region strikes me as a just solution to this whole political mess. 'Nuff said.
is anyone on this morning
1139. jimmiek
Call me a snob.. But the idea of living in a FEMA sponsered trailer park,just dosen't thrill me:)


It's not fun...
I may like camping but after we had a house fire we had to stay in a hotel and that was the most crammped, boring, and annoying months of my life I can only imagine one of those little campers
ok, well as I said last night, 94L would regain convection, and I expect a TD at anytime
and wow! that new TS in the western pacific already has 55mph winds!
94L comes in a much better environment.
Hurricane by saturday looks very likely.
Morning Storm,

Just got up, took a sip of coffee and looked at the EUMETSAT view of WAfrica and the CATL. 94L doesn't look as good as it did yesterday a.m. and the Twave that came off this am is looking only fairly healthy. I have an early morning today as well, so I will see u guys this afternoon.
yep, the enviroment appears much better for furrther development, and an anticyclone should build over 94L later today
ngps develops 94L tomorrow. cmc develops it later today
These are what I was looking at:

TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 1011
MB LOW WAS ADDED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N BASED ON A QUIKSCAT
DATA. BROAD WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF
THE LOW/WAVE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 18W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. BROAD LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

The thing that has me most concerned about both systems right now is that there is a weakness in the high which could potentially recurve any system right over the Bahamas and maybe into N Flordia, GA, SC coastline. Not my idea of a best case scenario . . .
Im thinking that wave at 22W has a shot at developing. the UKM model is showing something developing in the vicinity tomorrow
94L is looking very very weak....pressure is still high...no organization...still a very low latitude....y'all have a great Labor Day Weekend
Potential steering for the rest of the week doesn't make me at all happy. . .

Though it could be worse; could be a CV with no dry air making its way due west towards the Bahamas and E FL . . .

Gotta look on the bright side.

Have a great day.
Posted By: gsueagle07 at 10:41 AM GMT on August 29, 2007.

94L is looking very very weak....pressure is still high...no organization...still a very low latitude....y'all have a great Labor Day Weekend


latitude isnt too low, it is a little organized, the nhc has never said it isnt organized at all. pressure is 1010 and have seen development at 1012
1152. guygee
Any blog old-timers out there? Anyone know what whatever happened to txweather? Is he still posting?

txweather (if I recall correctly) is a real meteorologist who was posting here a lot last year...a real man of the people, not a snob at all, he wasn't "too good" to mix it up with us weather amateurs.

txweather ran a great contest on 2006 Chris to see if this blog's track forecast consensus could match or beat the NHC's forecast. As I remember, it was he way he set up the rules that made it a good contest. He waited until Chris became a TS so we had something to sink our teeth into, then before the 0300Z NHC update everyone had to email him their 6 hr lat-longs track prediction fixes out for the next three days. At the end, he emailed everyone their results in private, and announced the winner and the blog consensus track errors...which ended up being very close o the NHC's track errors.

I think I will look up some of those old posts and repost them here after Dr. M's new update.

(Edit: I think txweather was the person that ran the contest, not texmet. Still going to look up those old posts).
Hi Good Morning Everyone...
Seems to be wide differences of opinion over what will and will not develop. 94L looks pretty fiesty to me this morning. Should be interesting to see what happens over the next 24 hours. Can someone tell me why the system closer to home off the east coast WON't be a fish storm? Link
How about DT Dixie Surfdog? Leaders of the pack in the 90s on WPalm Beach Loews first hurricane blog. Just remember "I am not gay never have been gay" oh another closet gay hater bites the dust.
Good Morning to All

This morning's QuickSCAT finally scanned 94L:

94l
After watching the visible imgaery this morning i concluded that 94L is lacking one major factor - consistent deep convection despite what i think is a very good circulation and i have dry air to blame on that.
Can anyone give me a little help? When I look at a sat image (I do understand there are diff versions visable, IR 2, IR 3, etc.) but what is the primary differece between Sat images and Radar. Is Radar showing me actual rain and Sat showing cloud temps?
Morning all ☺

EDF, Sat images are actual images taken from satellites. Radar is land based and it scans the "thickness" of the atmosphere close to the earth. Kind of like a depth finder on a boat, it sends a signal out and waits for it to be reflected back. At least I am pretty sure this is how it works. Nothing reflected back, no rain. Strong reflection back heavy rain.
Terra, that QS makes 94 look as sloppy as it is...lol

EDF, you can find some great satellite imagery from the
Quick links page. Many of the pages there also have help/learning files.

See y'all in a little while
1161. guygee
txweather - You still out there??

Here is how txweather ran the contest last year:


txweather 2006-08-03 00:10:20 (12:10 AM GMT)
forecasting contest
"I have been trying to organize a tropical forecast contest... My idea would be for us to forecast a position and intensity 24,48,72 from the 21z advisory. I think it would be a good experience and teach us all (both mets and nonmets) a good deal. As a meteorologist I felt forecasting is an area they simply don't teach enough. People could either PM me their forecast or post it, with reason if desired. After the storm we'd have a 24hr winner, 48hr winner, 72hr winner and total winner for both intensity and movement. I'd announce the winners, but nobody else so people wouldn't get attacked(we know how this block would be) or embarrassed if they really bombed(as the person who might come in last that protects me). Also I think the consensus from Weather Underground might be quite good and even top the NHC. Just PM if you are interested or have comments."
Posted By: earthlydragonfly at 11:20 AM GMT on August 29, 2007.

Can anyone give me a little help? When I look at a sat image (I do understand there are diff versions visable, IR 2, IR 3, etc.) but what is the primary differece between Sat images and Radar. Is Radar showing me actual rain and Sat showing cloud temps?


Basically yes.......but radar deals with all forms of precipitation not just rain and satellites deals with more than cloud temps.

Earlier I made a comment that there were no eyepoppers over Africa. I take that back.

An impressive wave is emerging of the coast of Africa. The ECMWF develops this system next week (Link)

africa
1164. guygee
(deleted)
1165. IKE
Posted By: TerraNova at 6:40 AM CDT on August 29, 2007.
Earlier I made a comment that there were no eyepoppers over Africa. I take that back.

An impressive wave is emerging of the coast of Africa. The ECMWF develops this system next week (Link)


I know you know this...that's 10 days out. Not saying it won't develop...just the reality.

Here's some reality....there is no Katrina in the GOM this year on August 29th. That is great news. There have been only 5 storms so far this season..and it looks like a decent chance of going the rest of August without a named system.

The GFS shows nothing developing for the next 7-10 days and my prediction of 18 storms in the Atlantic this season will be waaaaaay over what actually winds up being the total number.
1166. mit5003
y r we talking about something with a 10% chance of development

we should be talking about 95e about to become td 11e!
Thank you Guygee!! I have been looking at these things for years but just wanted to make sure I knew what exactly I was looking at.
2 African waves to watch now; one just off the coast, and another coming off the coast.
I still don't think 94L will develop; the only models that develop it are the CMC and NOGAPS. And it's very disorganized. I think the SE Coast low will become STS Felix and the African wave will become Hurricane Gabrielle.
Looks like the troughs moving off the E coast are going to start recurving many of these waves if you buy in to the GFS solutions.

Terra, that wave coming off of Africa is pretty impressive. I would not be surprised at all if between now and mid October we see 7-10 tropical systems form based on the waves we have been seeing come off of Africa all season
Stormjunkie,
Just keep an eye off the low off of SC, might get close to your waters:)
I will SG03, although I think it will only be a Bermuda/Fishy problem.

Back to work. Talk to y'all later ☺
1173. guygee
earthlydragonfly - Thanks, I was going to add some more on radar but somehow messed up my post and had to delete it, sorry. Basically, IR shows cloud top "temps" in a particular IR band, visible shows "the picture" from space, and radar scans show backscatter from precipitation. Base reflectivity shows the backscatter from one "tilt" (elevation) angle (usually 0.5) so the height of the return is related to the distance from the radar (the farther away the return is from the radar site, the higher up in the atmosphere it is). Composite radar shows the return from all of the available elevation angles. There is a good FAQ available on the NWS WSR-88D Radar.
1174. IKE
I'm sure someone posted this earlier, but...

"025
NOUS42 KNHC 281445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 28 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-096

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 31/1800Z NEAR 13N 58W.


II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF"
Great explanation Guygee ☺

Some one do me a favor please.

Go to the Quick Links page. Then The S Fla Water Management page, then try to click on storm 04...Let me know if it work for you. I keep getting some warning about security and prosecution....Strange...
Why has this been such a quiet season, when all the experts had predicted a busy season? I mean the Farmers Almanac predictions are pretty accurate but the long range Hurricane predictions are so off?
Just curious what is that blob just due north of Puerto Rico, just a burst of convection???
1178. IKE
Bamawatcher....

From the San Juan morning discussion...

"Synopsis...a weak tropical wave...over the eastern Hispaniola"

It's a weak wave.
1179. CATMAN5
LATEST GFS, 06UTC, 8/29, 850mb & 500mb VORTICITY PROJECTIONS SHOW NOTHING EXCEPT A NEAR TERM SYSTEM MOVING AWAY NE FROM OFF HATTERAS. AT THIS RATE MY SLOPPY WINDMILL BACKSTROKE WILL BE CREATING GREATER SWELLS THAN ANY PROJECTED SYSTEM AT CONEY ISLAND!
PREDICT NHC AND FRIENDS WILL LOWER TOTAL OUTPUT AGAIN.
I KNOW GFS IS CONSERVATIVE, BUT WHAT'S THE PROBLEM ANYWAY?
1180. IKE
Posted By: VaSurfer at 7:22 AM CDT on August 29, 2007.
Why has this been such a quiet season, when all the experts had predicted a busy season? I mean the Farmers Almanac predictions are pretty accurate but the long range Hurricane predictions are so off?


The experts predicted a busy season last year and it didn't happen.
1181. guygee
Good morning SJ! I checked the link and it looks to be back up, but it only has the UKMET model available at this time.

EDIT: But when I click on storm 94 I get a login page, and a warning, "Unauthorized use of this site is prohibited and may subject you to civil and criminal prosecution"
(!?!?!)
Hey JP,
Keep an eye on the low off the SE Coast
SJ: I went there and clicked on storm 94 and it goes to a sign on screen.
I see a blowup happening. 4 potential storms, and all have a good chance. We could be up to 9 storms come Septmeber 15.
StormJunkie, it worked for me.

I have a question too, when you go to the models link, what is the best setting to see the models? I have been using 850 vorticity because I think that is what someone said to do? Is that right?
Still watching the "bow wave" just ahead of 94L. Seems indicitave of the flow in which "he" is embedded. Now pointing to the NW
Also cloud field to the NW of 94L is moving NW.
The fork in the road at 19N 62W?
No trof so far as that big high might force 94L into the caribbean similar to dean.
What could be the worst case scenario for the storm off the coast just south of me here in Virginia Beach? There is nothing to steer it back west after it possibly forms is there? Best case would be forming and stalling off the coast and creating a nice SE background swell.
Its hard to believe every system in 07 moves into mexico...The ECMWF is still showing the 500mb high right on top of it.
1190. IKE
VaSurfer...that low will get kicked out to sea...found this from the Charleston,SC morning discussion...

" This front will meander
through far southern SC late Friday morning and should clear southeast Georgia and the
Altamaha river by sunrise Sat before becoming quasi-stationary
across northern Florida Sat night/sun.
Rain chances should generally
remain at or below normal levels into early next week as drier
high pressure tries to build into the region."

A cold front heading south will kick it out-to-sea.
Its funny that Jeff has to mention "reliable computer models". Why do we even look at the unreliable ones, if we are certain they are unreliable. I got a good chuckle thinking about this.
Wow! I was joking about the Blob thing! We got quite active in the tropics really quick... What are the chances of these things developing and which direction could they go?
By the way, I was out sick the past three days so someone send me an email and fill me in on what we have here...
SJ: I went there and clicked on storm 94 and it goes to a sign on screen.

Nothing happens when I click on Storm 94. Or Storm 50 for that matter. In fact, the images don't appear to be there. Weird...
Some areas of interest but I don't see any development in the short term considering the hostile conditions in the Atlantic right now.
Is there a good link to the radar IR loop for the invest?
Thanks Ike
Our last tropical troubles was Isabel years ago. Other than that Ernesto was just a little rain and wind last season. Our local yocal weathermen seem to think we are due for another storm. I hate when they talk like that and give no details as to why we would be due? I guess no one really knows. It does seem like our region has a lot more closer calls during La Nina season and when we get out of the zonal flow from west to east and the fall time troughs start swinging in from up north. That usually helps to pick up the storms and pull them very close to our coastline up here. Early in the season they usually stay far south such as Dean. Am I correct on any of this?
What is this invest that I see on the NHC satillite imaging page?Link
Is this the Honduras disturbance that the Dr. was talking about in his blog? I'm asking only because I'm having problems getting the java pics to load. (grumble grumble...)
I found the page for 94L.

models


Is this the Honduras disturbance that the Dr. was talking about in his blog? I'm asking only because I'm having problems getting the java pics to load. (grumble grumble...)

Yes it is. It's not on the Navy or SFWMD page so it's likely just an "unofficial" invest (not 95L).
1201. IKE
Posted By: VaSurfer at 7:54 AM CDT on August 29, 2007.
Thanks Ike
Our last tropical troubles was Isabel years ago. Other than that Ernesto was just a little rain and wind last season. Our local yocal weathermen seem to think we are due for another storm. I hate when they talk like that and give no details as to why we would be due? I guess no one really knows. It does seem like our region has a lot more closer calls during La Nina season and when we get out of the zonal flow from west to east and the fall time troughs start swinging in from up north. That usually helps to pick up the storms and pull them very close to our coastline up here. Early in the season they usually stay far south such as Dean. Am I correct on any of this?


Yes. It only takes 1...troughs can pull systems north...you might get one.
1202. guygee
MikesterMike - I think Dr. M's point is that models like the NAM and CMC are known to have a bias towards convective feedback, so they are not reliable for predicting tropical cyclogenesis. This does not mean they are bad models in the mid-latitudes or during the off-season.
Good morning all

With this type of set up again, similar to when Dean came through, we had all better hope that 94L does not develop
Surface observations in the area do not show anything that impressive as far as pressure and wind with 94L.With the high to its north iam thinking this is pushing into the caribbean similar to dean.

Also the last QS pass at around 8:47 UTC showed a broad low pressure area centered near 10N and 39W, which well SW of the most convection with 94L.Adrian

94L is looking like it's trying to get organized in the last 6-8 frames of satellite imagery... We'll see IF the dry air doesn't take it out soon...

If the dry air doesn't take it out...I believe 94L will be the weaker version of Dean... MAYBE a Cat 2 hurricane once it gets into the Caribbean...

Any models take this up in the Gulf or along the East Coast??
H23

You mean SE of the convection right ?

The convection is all near 45W now but QS shows a weak low further E
Posted By: TerraNova at 12:56 PM GMT on August 29, 2007.

Is this the Honduras disturbance that the Dr. was talking about in his blog? I'm asking only because I'm having problems getting the java pics to load. (grumble grumble...)

Yes it is. It's not on the Navy or SFWMD page so it's likely just an "unofficial" invest (not 95L).


Thanks Terra! Much appreciated
In fact I am beginning to wonder if the circulation we are seeing with the convection associated with 94L may not be mostly in the mid levels. The QS pass does not support the placement of a surface low with the convection itself IMO
Posted By: kmanislander at 9:00 AM EDT on August 29, 2007.

H23

You mean SE of the convection right ?

The convection is all near 45W now but QS shows a weak low further E

Look here
1210. crownwx
StormJunkie:
I would go to the following page instead for model tracks from South Florida Water Management: Link Try that and see if it works for you.
94L leaving the ITCZ behind.
Posted By: StormW at 1:05 PM GMT on August 29, 2007.

I just got on.
95L up on Navy site


I see 95W, but not 95L
1214. SLU
Here's comes invest 95L
STORM 95L. INVEST

95
Adrian

To me it would appear that there is a weak low near 39W. I do not see much in the way of vectors suggesting a low further W or SW. There is a little veering of winds but that is typical of a Twave
The low may be elongated from 39N 10W to 8N 45W
but very weak
1220. rxse7en
MM5 Model has 95l developing off the NE Florida coast--here's to hoping for some rain!
Nice pic of the storm 95l, looks to an un-trained eye such as mine pretty darn impressive.
Morning All!

Looks like the GFS dropped the Dooms Day Scenario. In fact, it dropped most development for the next 2 weeks, with the exception of a couple weak storms in the East Atl towards the end of the run. Granted only one run but, it would be nice.
95l looks impresive. It appears to be pushing off to the south. Will it be picked up by the front eventually or does it have a shot of moving across FL giving a rainy holiday?
Posted By: StormW at 1:09 PM GMT on August 29, 2007.

MissBennet, They didn't have a satellite pic up when I went to the site...but it's listed

Could you post the link? I think I'm looking at the wrong webbie.
gotta go

BBL
95L could pose a threat to Bahamas and FL
Storm,
Are you working on your synopsis? Look forward to it :)
good morning all
1229. guygee
CaneWhisperer - Right, looks like GFS loses 94L in a weakness forecast NE of the Bahamas...GFDL also loses 94L. GFS now shows development of the wave behind 94L starting out at 156 hrs...way out there.

Weakness in high seems reasonable given trough forecast to drop SE and sweep away 95L. Need to look for some run-to-run consistency on the next prospect.
1230. msphar
So far the coordinates posted have tracked 94L south of the Dean track.
95L is going to have to lose some of the shear that it's under right now.

I would also caution that 95L isn't the only low pressure along this old front. There's another non-tropical area of low pressure about 350 miles to it's northeast which could be more of a threat.

The front that extends from the upper Great Lakes down into the Texas panhandle isn't supossed to move off the coast completely until Friday evening, so these systems have about 60 hours or so to get their act together.
Floater up...

ggg
It can't be both
There are still a couple 850mb vorticie associated with both 94 and 95L. Definitely need alot more organization to happen.
Interesting....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45atc2.cgi?time=2007082900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animati on

What do all those little circles east of Jacksonville mean?
Something I noticed since the busy season of 2005...... It seems like the seasons (including winter) are arriving alot later than they used to, say from 5-10 years ago. I truly think that we just getting started with this hurricane season. Dean was the first major player this year, but i think we will have more by seasons end. I think September and October will be very busy this season, and it won't surprise me to see one or two named storms in November. It just seems of late that the seasons are taking longer to arrive and get into the thick of things. Even this winter I expect true season conditions to come late and last further into what would normally be the beginning of spring.
and it has a good a bit of organization



94L is getting better organize according to this

JP,
95L out to sea???
94L - will develop (right now I only give it TD status)

95L - will develop (Felix)

unofficial invest - will not develop

African wave - will develop (Gabrielle)
95L should get picked up....

Models

fff
1246. nash28
Morning all.

Did the GFDL not run a 06z package for 94L?
anyone else want to add there name to the lists
1250. 21N71W
Morning All,
I live in the Turks and Caicos Islands and I am leaving for Anguilla for a week.So I hope that I will be able to enjoy myself without having to worry rushing home to board up .....yes???
Doesn't look like it Nash! Looks like the latest Quikscatt is loading in on the storm page.
I live in the Turks and Caicos Islands and I am leaving for Anguilla for a week.So I hope that I will be able to enjoy myself without having to worry rushing home to board up .....yes???

No real need to worry, if the system we're watching does develop it will likely only be a tropical depression or maybe a weak tropical storm. Certainly nothing like Dean. Also if the wave that is currently emerging off Africa develops it will be a while before it affects anybody.
I see that we have 95L now.
I agree with the season starting later. We all know the specific heat of water and that surface temps will stay warmer later in the year so storms will have a better chance on that front. I also think november could see 2 or even 3 storms.
1256. 21N71W
thanks Terranova !
1257. Crawls
What list?
Maybe the official hurricane season will have to change from June 1st - Nov. 30th to July 1st - Dec. 31st!
Posted By: Crawls at 1:44 PM GMT on August 29, 2007.

What list?


the list I posted a little while before the post asking about the list
Latest rainfall estimates for 95L and 94L:

trmm1

trmm2
StormW ~

When is your latest update "synopsis" going to post?
I may agree with weatherbrat. Atleast until the seasons go back to a more statistical starting point. Maybe the forcast for each season should include duration and begining dates.
Wave behind 94L could really make things interesting as its futher north for starters.

Infrared Image of wave behind 94L
Good morning to you all. The tropics have become active once again after a one week lull from Dean and Erin. I have just updated my website on both Invests. I still have to wait for more reliable computer models before placing them on my site. It appears to me as if both systems may be getting their act in gear and seem to be developing, albeit slowly. To me, Invest 94L has a better chance of development than 95L, but that could always change. They both have increased convection and clear cyclonic turning. We will have to wait for the surface observations and QuikScat on Invest 95L. Well, I'll be here later on today. Take it easy all.
What about the blow up north of the hispanola The tw been fighting shear now for days looks like it is becoming more favorable. Sometimes the waves that fight shear live another day.
29/1145 UTC 31.3N 76.2W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
29/1115 UTC 11.2N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
This is the wave to place close attention in the coming week or so as it already at a dangerous latitude and looks fairly well organized on morning visibles.

wave
1268. emagirl
well 2 years since katrina
Re: SW Caribbean/Yucatan
Elongated trof running SW to NE-BOC to N Central GOMEX worrisome.
UL off MS/LA coast.
Just a caution. Most everything associated w/this area moving west.
1270. Relix
Who activated the cyclogenesis switch?
1271. IKE
Posted By: TerraNova at 8:59 AM CDT on August 29, 2007.
29/1145 UTC 31.3N 76.2W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
29/1115 UTC 11.2N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


They both have T numbers...94L appears a little more organized this morning.
i agree hurricane23
Well I see we now have 95, and as several have noted the Africa wave is looking pretty impressive. I guess there is an outside shot we have three Atlantic named storms before Sept 1st...Crazy how quickly things can change. The QS on 95 looks fairly sloppy right now, but there are some decent winds with it and as it detaches from the front it should be in a better spot for development.

Lot's of wait and see out there right now..
Posted By: Relix at 2:04 PM GMT on August 29, 2007.

Who activated the cyclogenesis switch?


I did I was tired of no activity
h23, being that far north and seeing what the GFS has been showing the last few runs, I think there is a decent chance that Africa wave gets recurved, hopefully....Again though, more wait and see.
StormJunkie,
Hopefully everything is out to sea:) :):)
1277. quante
This seems to indicate that "window closes" to the US for Cape Verde storms Caribbean would be the hot spot. Statistics of course are just that, but interesting in any event.

Link
Posted By: StormJunkie at 10:07 AM EDT on August 29, 2007.

h23, being that far north and seeing what the GFS has been showing the last few runs, I think there is a decent chance that Africa wave gets recurved, hopefully....Again though, more wait and see.

Could recurve but my point its latitude is dangerous for long trackers and right its looks good on satelitte imagery for this latitude so far this season.TPC has a 10llmb low attached to the wave.
1279. mccld
Two years ago today ,i spent the day convincing my daughter to leave New Orleans. I was convinced that this was the storm that we had all been talking about because of the information shared on this web site. My thanks goes to all of you and especially Storm Junkie who's passion and information made the difference for me and my family that day. Say a prayer for all who are still healing from that day.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 29 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 30/1500Z
D. 29.0N 76.5W
E. 30/1730Z TO 30/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 31/0200Z
D. 28.0N 76.0W
E. 31/0500Z TO 31/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYTEM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS REMAINS A THREAT
.
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 13N 58W AT 31/1800Z
1281. Annap
I'm leaving for Cuba on Saturday. I hope everything stays calm when I'm away. I don't want to get stuck in Cuba during a storm.
Adrain,
I thought 95L is no threat?
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 10:27 AM EDT on August 29, 2007.

Adrain,
I thought 95L is no threat?

Even if this is not a threat recon always will fly into systems this close to land and have a chance at developing.
There's a possibility (but very low) that a subtropical or tropical system might form near 45N 40W! LoL
Basically my advise with now the meat of the season approaching anything is possible and everything in the tropics should be watched closely.
1287. MZT
I agree with WeatherMSK. My father and I have been discussing how the first frost arrives later than it used to, and how you can harvest tomatoes until the first week of December in N.C. now.

Rememebr Jeff Masters mentioning that the smaller norhtern ice cap could delay the winter. We may need to get out of thinking that hurricane season is mostly September phenominon. Big storms like Wilma in the final week of October may not be as "freak" as they used to be.
ok guys which one is 95l? where is it heading at the moment?
1289. MZT
new blog up
ok stromw, in your synopsis on 95L, you said "the farther offshore, the better"
the better for what?
the better for development, or the better not to develope?
Right now 94L is organizing but 94L will need to face high wind shear by 60w ahead. I think that's why the gfs weakens the system and some models don't develops nothing and some models only take it to a tropical storm status. Of course conditions can become more favorable but we need to wait at least 2 days.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:02 PM GMT on August 29, 2007.

This is the wave to place close attention in the coming week or so as it already at a dangerous latitude and looks fairly well organized on morning visibles.


ok hurricane23, in that pic you posted, there two blobs, which one is the potential?
the elongated one or the little round one. Because on the EUMETAT the little round one seems to have rotation.
New blog is up about Katrina and 94L and 95L.
Would someone please answer my questions, i come on here to learn something, i can't learn anything if my questions are not answered. I just what to know what i am looking at. Dog gone it!