WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Disturbance 93L in southern Caribbean may develop later this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on November 03, 2008

An area of disturbed weather (93L), associated with a broad area of low pressure that formed at the tail end of a stalled-out cold front, continues in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The disturbance has a strong potential to develop into a tropical storm by late this week. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 93L, but last night's QuikSCAT pass revealed an elongated circulation center near 11N 79W, about 300 miles north of the Panama Canal. Wind shear is a low to moderate 5-15 knots over the disturbance. Visible satellite images show that heavy thunderstorm activity has changed little in coverage or intensity over the past day in association with 93L, and the storm is quite disorganized at present. However, precipitable water imagery shows that the atmosphere has moistened considerably over the south-central Caribbean over the past day, and I expect a marked increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the region by Tuesday.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 93L.

The forecast
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10-20 knots, over the southern Caribbean during the remainder of the week. Water temperatures are warm, 29.5°C, and this warm water extends to great depth. These are favorable conditions for intensification, and both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will become a hurricane. However, the SHIPS intensity model does not develop 93L at all.

Steering currents are weak, but a slow west-northwest to northwest motion of 93L is likely beginning on Tuesday, when an intensifying extratropical storm off the east coast of Florida should impart northwesterly steering currents over the southern Caribbean. Most of the models foresee that 93L will move to a point just offshore the Nicaragua-Honduras border by Thursday. At that time, a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast. Most of the models predict that this trough will be strong enough to pull 93L northward towards western Cuba (GFDL and UKMET models), or even northeastwards, towards eastern Cuba and Jamaica (HWRF and ECMWF models). These two models foresee a possible threat to the Bahamas or South Florida late this week or early next week. The GFS model predicts the trough will not be strong enough to turn 93L northwards, and predicts a landfall in Nicaragua late this week. Since this is the outlier, I am discounting this solution, and predict that 93L will remain over water this week, becoming Tropical Storm Paloma Wednesday or Thursday. NHC is giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical storm by Wednesday morning. I give 93L a 40% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Northeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras are at risk of heavy rains from 93L beginning Tuesday. Total rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches are likely through Wednesday in these countries. Panama and Costa Rica will probably receive about 2-4 inches of rain through Wednesday. Heavy rains will likely move into the Cayman Islands on Wednesday.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. 7544
ill have to agree with tampa that 93l could get further north than the models are showing and could get close to so fla but also isnt there a lot of dry air to the north over fla will this stay in place or fade as 93l might head north over cuba
Quoting hurricanealley:
GO McCain
yes! Go McCain !
I could have voted the democratic ticket this election even tho I'm registered as a republican. Unfortuneately the dems put up the wrong guy in my opinion. I have no love for the policies of the past 8 years but I'm having a hard time trusting Obama. This is a man who wouldn't pass a security clearance in the military or CIA or FBI because of his past associations and we're going to hand him the keys to the kingdom? Whats the rush? We barely know this guy! Give McCain 4 years to make things better. Obama is a young man, lets watch him in the senate for the next for years. We will certainly get to know him better. He has plenty of time to run again.

My 2 cents.
Nice pic Rob, also good to know the phone pics can translate to the blog....hmmmmm I think my young buck "snowed" me on that... heh, heh....

It's so grey out my window, it looks just like the north....gives the sunbunny in me - blues -- always wonder if it's the lack of sun (SAD) or because it triggers memories of a place (the north) I never want to visit again
503 PD
Well spoken and a wise choice.
The shear over 93L is still preventing the convection from consolidating over the centre and you can see on the water vapor loop the moisture pluming to the N/Ne. Of course time may change this.
504 mom
Dark triggers depression in most.
Turn on the lights and wear something white for reflectivety.
And smile. Smiles trigger happy chemicals.
503PD
I assume your aware he already has the second highest security clearance you can have in the US right?
I am going to have to stop chatting soon.. hate to get banned before the day starts :)
People really should read newspapers and reports.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Area of Interest ... Invest 93L
Satellite Picture ... Invest 93L

Present Satellite Area of Interest ... Carols
Good morning...
RobDaHood

My sweetgum tree in my backyard is turning red here in Houston.

Cheers.

Some of us try to read Orca -- but when only four corporation own the "Press" is it very difficult to get all views. When my local NYT owned paper puts an article on the front page - about a guy who designs recipes for Burger King.... I know I have a problem -- especially when that was four days after IKE. My intelligence was insulted.

I canceled the paper... I get more news here,
WXlogic -- well you were right last night
508 Orca
That's only because he's an elected US Senator.
If he were a regular citizen. He'd be in the same boat as everyone else and he would not have clearance.
Newspapers are the worst place to get the news.
Watch C-Span and you'll learn how our country works and how wrong the newspapers report on who is responsible.
Quoting surfmom:
Some of us try to read Orca -- but when only four corporation own the "Press" is it very difficult to get all views. When my local NYT owned paper puts an article on the front page - about a guy who designs recipes for Burger King.... I know I have a problem -- especially when that was four days after IKE. My intelligence was insulted.

I canceled the paper... I get more news here,


Actually.. I get better news about the US from the BBC and Canadian Papers.. no slants
504. surfmom

Thanks surfmom. Mine is a WinMobile6 PDA phone so I just pull the sd card and transfer to PC (or use bluetooth or USB) images in jpg format so upload from pc to here. Prefer to use reg camera for quality, but it is away on vacation. If your phone has net access and compatible image format, you should be able to upload directly but I've never tried it.
Being elected to the Senate entitles one to a high security clearance. My point is that if he was comming up thru the ranks I do not believe he would pass the background checks.

I could be wrong, its happened plenty of times before.
OK, out of here for the morning...
Prediction.. Obama 290+
520. IKE
Quoting theshepherd:
508 Orca
That's only because he's an elected US Senator.
If he were a regular citizen. He'd be in the same boat as everyone else and he would not have clearance.
Newspapers are the worst place to get the news.
Watch C-Span and you'll learn how our country works and how wrong the newspapers report on who is responsible.


He isn't a regular citizen. It's like saying if George W. Bush weren't born, he wouldn't have been President.
Very cool here in SRQ - the Gulf is tranquil.....presently. Cats are hibernating in their cozy corners, chickens are quiet too...wonder what mood the horses will be in this afternoon, actually I better check my local forecast.
Quoting IKE:


He isn't a regular citizen. It's like saying if George W. Bush weren't born, he wouldn't have been President.


Thanks Ike, I left that one alone
523. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, out of here for the morning...
Prediction.. Obama 290+


You're probably about right...I'm out too....things to do.......
520 Ike
Huh ????
Quoting surfmom:
WXlogic -- well you were right last night


Hehe... I try not to. 12Z models starting to come out so we shall see how they're initializing the current atmospheric variables to see how they play out. I'm still trying to chew on some additional scenerios.
I'm going to say that 93L has a 70-90% chance of becoming a depression today, and 40-60% chance of it becoming Paloma.
516. Orcasystems

Orca, would have to (respectfully) disagree with that.

All media is opinionated, it is the nature of the beast. People don't usually waste time writing about things they have no interest in or opinion about. Some also slant their stories to please the boss. Then there are the editors...This is also true in scientific journalism...The person writing or conducting the study has a point to make or a theorem to prove and the results are often effected by that.
The gross errors and false assumptions I see in the media on subjects I have 1st hand knowlege of cause me to take everything else they say with a very large grain of salt.
We are BBC watchers in this house as well, but they're owned by Reuters.... and while more objective then what we have here...... there is a coloring of the lens at times.

It's the financial biggies (the Queen,the Rothchilds,etc., a few quiet, but very influential families that have run the show -- in my humble opinion)& sell the arms. What has changed is the internet -- this is a vehicle, a genie in the bottle -- Here we -The People- have an opportunity to enlighten (Hurricane IKE, voting machine glitches) each other and find community - VOICE -- here we can challenge authority -- thanks why I personally find Dr. Jeff Masters, to be a hero of sorts. He gave us this place, this blog, this real information..... we have a choice
#527 LOUD APPLAUSE -- with no hard feelings Orca.

My spouse published a small environmental newspaper for many years ---Two articles got him in a "hot seat" one was Monsanto's GMO seeds.
Overcast weather here in central florida today as I voted at the country club with no lines!
Wonder what it will be like in the city of Daytona this afternoon when I'm at a community center for an appointment regarding bringing tutoring to inner city children of Daytona through No Child Left Behind. Will be at a polling place and feel part of history, for sure! Don't let the weather keep you from voting. Every vote will count in this important election.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually.. I get better news about the US from the BBC and Canadian Papers.. no slants


You must be joking. Orca! I can't speak about the Canadian papers but the BBC is so biased these days it's unreal. IMHO, that is.
93L looking angry, hope the caymans can handle all the rain
1008 mb surface low =93L We may have something here. Florida and Castro need to watch this one!! Remember wrong way Lenny a few yrs ago??
534. 7544
as obahama gets closer to winning

93l inching further north at this hour more convection building stay tuned
Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its been a colder fall then normal trees deleaved here about two weeks early as for winter got to wait and see but if current patterns continue first snow is not long away watchin to see how the cold front will be shaping up could be some severe stuff coming soon midwest from texas north and eastward that will also play out 93l for kman as well lots going on just got to look


Interestingly, many trees here still have leaves on them and a few are even still mostly green (although those trees normally change late anyway; in contrast, some trees lose them very early and lost their leaves several weeks ago). I'd say that it is pretty normal around here; also, one of the biggest factors that determines when leaves change that I have seen is how wet it was (dry weather tends to cause early leaf drop; here it has been record wet).
Quoting surfmom:
We are BBC watchers in this house as well, but they're owned by Reuters....


Could you explain please??
530. Chicklit

LOL My NWS forecast (updated 10:51am btw) still says mostly sunny (whoops!)

WU forecast is a little closer to reality (partly cloudy)

reality is solid overcast 1000-1500ft

(highlands county)
New Blog
Haven't been around recently until I heard about 93L. I see politics has leaked in. I voted 2 weeks ago...small line. All I will say is that I am ready for change.
So "Paloma"?? Cuba then SoFlo? Or Cuba then Bahamas then fish?