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Disturbance 91L spins towards Cape Hatteras; Cyclone Aila toll at 180

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:28 PM GMT on May 27, 2009

An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, is centered 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. While the storm does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity, it does have a well-developed circulation, and the spin of the system is readily apparent on long range radar animations out of Morehead City, North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Thursday afternoon, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track north or north-northeastward at 10 - 15 mph towards North Carolina's Outer Banks today, then get swept northeastwards out to sea on Thursday. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression, but an Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. If the system does develop, the current location of the heaviest thunderstorm activity in a band well removed from the center suggests that 91L would be classified as a subtropical depression. The Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect 20 - 25 mph winds and heavy rain from this system tonight and Thursday morning. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Latest radar image from the Morehead City, NC radar.

Tropical Cyclone Aila death toll at 180
The year's deadliest tropical cyclone so far, Tropical Cyclone Aila, has killed at least 180 people in India and Bangladesh border region, according to the latest media reports. Aila hit the India/Bangladesh border region on May 25 as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane, bringing sustained winds of 65 - 75 mph and a 3 - 4 meter (10 - 13 foot) storm surge to the coast. Aila has left over 150,000 homeless in India and 500,000 in Bangladesh. The cyclone destroyed over 180,000 homes in Bangladesh--a severe blow for a region still recovering from the devastation wrought by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Sidr of November 2007, which killed 3,500 people. The death toll form Aila will likely go much higher, as over 500 people are still missing. The Bay of Bengal is no stranger to deadly cyclones--fifteen of the world's twenty deadliest tropical cyclones have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Aila as it made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border. Image credit: NASA.

Interview tonight on hurricanetrack.com
I'll be doing one of my periodic spiels on Internet radio tonight at 9pm EDT. Tune your browsers to www.hurricanetrack.com and listen in to my interview with host Mark Sudduth. There is also a live chat to participate in. Hurricane season starts Monday!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:
Apparently I woke up way to early.. and have nothing better to do :(



LOL.....can you explain exactly what those boxes represent?
Quoting STORMT0P:
that is nothing in the gulf...and soon it will be dead...


It's the real STORMTOP!
Quoting IKE:


LOL.....can you explain exactly what those boxes represent?

Yup... and you don't want to know.. Hebert #1&2
Quoting IKE:


LOL.....can you explain exactly what those boxes represent?



they represent someone named Mr Hebert who had too much time on his hands
505. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:

Yup... and you don't want to know.. Hebert #1&2


Thanks. That clears up any remaining questions I had.
506. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:



they represent someone named Mr Hebert who had too much time on his hands


LOL.
I like those boxes Orca.......they're very helpful...... : )
Quoting surfmom:
I like those boxes Orca.......they're very helpful...... : )


I figured it would give me something to do..and to save the life of a dog commonly referred to as Jackson.. who decided that I should be awake at 315 in the ummm morning.
ike
these things in the gulf, are they forecast by the models to form? i saw a suspicious looking gfs recently that had a couple storms coming from that direction hitting fla.
MICAH WEAVER: swfl SURF REPORT
Gradient kinda flattened out so no surf for today although there is a massive blob offshore and 003 has had some 30knt W winds. The blob seems to be associated with the old frontal boundary and not a closed cell Low. Friday's looking to be the best shot at surf with waves in the waist high range from the SW at the best spots by afternoon. By Saturday it's just looking like knee high leftovers as the gradient flattens back out again. Although if a little southy gets going there may still be small surf on Saturday. Keep an eye on the wind in the bottom of the gulf.

Nice to see a little something for me and no hurricane guilt associated w/the waves.......
For the first time in a month my house is finally off of Orca's area of interest chart. Anyone want to buy some swampland in Central Georgia?
512. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:
ike
these things in the gulf, are they forecast by the models to form? i saw a suspicious looking gfs recently that had a couple storms coming from that direction hitting fla.


Tropically...I don't think so.

Rains for peninsula Florida? Yes.
Gonna be a LOOOONG day Orca... looks like you'll have some entertainment courtesy of the Gulf
514. IKE
Shear in the GOM is high....

ok thanks Ike
Here's what the M = 7.4 earthquake off Honduras looked like on Vancouver Island Seismic:
http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/stndon/wf-fo/index-eng.php?day=28&filter=autoscaled&month=05&s tation=first&tpl_region=swbc&type=network&year=2009&hour=8#SECTION_1
One good reason to keep checking this blog is to find information about real time breaking news
Thanks to Aussiestorm and OrcaSystems
Quoting RTLSNK:
For the first time in a month my house is finally off of Orca's area of interest chart. Anyone want to buy some swampland in Central Georgia?

NOPE -- Got to have beach to tempt me & you're way too North.... although your flower gardens are tempting.......but not quite enough
Good to see the shear..... just give us the RAIN W/OUT THE 'CANE
thx IKE
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Quoting RTLSNK:
For the first time in a month my house is finally off of Orca's area of interest chart. Anyone want to buy some swampland in Central Georgia?


Look again big boy :)
Your name is under a Blob of rain.. still
'morning all! :)

P'colaDoug and I have decided to extend the test of the XtremeHurricanes.com live webcam / remote hurricane weather station one more day.

We're continuing the test to determine how long the dual deep-cycle battery can continue to power the system. Right now, we're at 25-hours and counting!

We're also monitoring our usage with the VerizonWireless broadband card. Yesterday's 24-hour usage was just 1.62 gig [against the 5 gig limit per month].

All of this is really good news. We have "xtremely" fast and stable streaming being provided by Abacast.com, a stable Windows XP Dell Mini-9, and stable camera / microphone operations.

So you all get an opportunity to spend one more day with the birds!

Enjoy! I'd say we're more than ready to deploy the system when it's go-time.

CycloneOz---
How many "L"'s do you have to put on a low to make it a weather map???

Thats just what happens in Macon when you have 67*F and 99% humidity, the air shows up on the doppler!! LOL
Quoting RTLSNK:
Thats just what happens in Macon when you have 67*F and 99% humidity, the air shows up on the doppler!! LOL


Safe to assume that SB now consider mold to be a flower?
Quoting CycloneOz:
'morning all! :)

P'colaDoug and I have decided to extend the test of the XtremeHurricanes.com live webcam / remote hurricane weather station one more day.

We're continuing the test to determine how long the dual deep-cycle battery can continue to power the system. Right now, we're at 25-hours and counting!

We're also monitoring our usage with the VerizonWireless broadband card. Yesterday's 24-hour usage was just 1.62 gig [against the 5 gig limit per month].

All of this is really good news. We have "xtremely" fast and stable streaming being provided by Abacast.com, a stable Windows XP Dell Mini-9, and stable camera / microphone operations.

So you all get an opportunity to spend one more day with the birds!

Enjoy! I'd say we're more than ready to deploy the system when it's go-time.

CycloneOz---


That's live? what sorta bird is that? btw... nice back yard
Good Morning.......I see that the "Texas Blob" made it through the night and is barely hanging on this morning....
522. very cool!
Earthquake off the coast of Honduras- 7.1 magnitude Tsunami alert issued. The event lasted for 30 seconds and there was definite ground displacement.



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Seattle Post Intelligencer
Strong quake jolts Honduras, at least one dead
AFP - ‎57 minutes ago‎
The main tremor deep below the Caribbean coast shook the country for more than 30 seconds in the middle of the night and a tsunami alert was maintained for ...Link
Good morning,

75F here this morning with a 73F dew point. Chance of thunder showers (duh... ya think?). Birds do not sound as chipper as usual. Setting up for a hot, muggy summer? Will we need to get out the scuba gear, just to walk around?

RE: 'Gulf Glob'
Wondering what happens when the MCS crosses to the EAST of the Sunshine State. Not much shear to speak of, warm water - and all that hot air : )

Quoting surfmom:
MICAH WEAVER: swfl SURF REPORT
Gradient kinda flattened out so no surf for today although there is a massive blob offshore and 003 has had some 30knt W winds. The blob seems to be associated with the old frontal boundary and not a closed cell Low. Friday's looking to be the best shot at surf with waves in the waist high range from the SW at the best spots by afternoon. By Saturday it's just looking like knee high leftovers as the gradient flattens back out again. Although if a little southy gets going there may still be small surf on Saturday. Keep an eye on the wind in the bottom of the gulf.

Nice to see a little something for me and no hurricane guilt associated w/the waves.......


Sufmom, I am definitley going to check the beach as the storm moves thru...hope we get some...
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning,

75F here this morning with a 73F dew point. Chance of thunder showers (duh... ya think?). Birds do not sound as chipper as usual. Setting up for a hot, muggy summer? Will we need to get out the scuba gear, just to walk around?

RE: 'Gulf Glob'
Wondering what happens when the MCS crosses to the EAST of the Sunshine State. Not much shear to speak of, warm water - and all that hot air : )



Now that we need a picture of.. walking down the road in scuba gear... and a stir stick
the main piece of energy w/the GOM blob should effect for the most part from Naples south w/KW getting the worst of the winds and rain....I heard there's another blob that w/build over the sierra's and move into the GOM in addition to the 2 blobs now,the off the TX coastline w/be the one to watch as it heads east!!!
Hmmm I wonder if I should leave them on all the time???

Quoting Orcasystems:
Hmmm I wonder if I should leave them on all the time???



I like it.
Orca: those boxes make it look like the carib has eye's!!!!
537. MahFL
Stillwaiting, do you mean move East ?
I'm wondering if the blob off the west coast of fl is going to fare up or die off in the next few hours???,I'm thinking flair up as the move onshore around 2pm in my area.....
Yea mah,thanks,I fixed it!!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Now that we need a picture of.. walking down the road in scuba gear... and a stir stick


Image of man courtesy of FotoSearch (Royalty Free)

Quoting stillwaiting:
I'm wondering if the blob off the west coast of fl is going to fare up or die off in the next few hours???,I'm thinking flair up as the move onshore around 2pm in my area.....


They only give the area a 40% chance of rain, so I guess the NWS doesn't expect it to flair up.
There is a new blog.
I don't know why The Weather Channel is relying on the GFS when it's have such feedback issues. It's the only model that stalls the front across s. Florida. The rest more or less sweep it through.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
There is a new blog.

where?
Quoting stillwaiting:
I'm wondering if the blob off the west coast of fl is going to fare up or die off in the next few hours???,I'm thinking flair up as the move onshore around 2pm in my area.....


How do you know what time they will be moving on shore? Just curious ... that's a good tool to have ...Thanks