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Disturbance 91L off Southeast U.S. Coast May Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:39 PM GMT on June 28, 2014

A area of disturbed weather over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current off the Southeast U.S. coast has been designated Invest 91L by NHC. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed 91L with only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was poorly organized. There was no hint of a surface circulation trying to form. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed a few modest areas of rainfall over the ocean about 50 - 150 miles east of the Central Florida coast. Sea surface temperatures in this region were about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C--plenty of heat energy for a developing tropical cyclone. Wind shear was moderate, 10 - 15 knots. The shear was due to strong upper-level winds out of the north, which were keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of 91L. Water vapor satellite loops showed that the atmosphere was moderately moist off the Southeast U.S. coast, and dry air should not be a significant impediment to development. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 91L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 91L.

Forecast for 91L
The 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model showed light to moderate shear, 5 - 15 knots, over 91L for the next five days. With the disturbance parked over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, organization into a tropical depression is a good possibility. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 50%, respectively. As of noon EDT, I'd put these odds higher, at 40% and 60%, respectively. Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast, and the uncertainty in the track of 91L is higher than usual. The 00Z Saturday run of the UKMET and European models predicted a slow motion to the northeast, with the European model showing a potential threat to the North Carolina coast by Thursday. The 00Z and 06Z Saturday runs of the GFS model predict the opposite motion, a slow track southwestwards with a landfall in Florida on Tuesday. None of these models showed 91L reaching tropical storm strength. The UKMET and European model have been pretty consistent with their recent runs, so I favor their solution of a more northeasterly motion for 91L over the next five days.

I'll have an update on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located about 230 miles east of Jacksonville,
Florida, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
as it moves slowly southward. Upper-level winds are only marginally
favorable, and proximity to dry air to the north of the disturbance
could inhibit formation of a tropical cyclone over the next couple
of days. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development of this system
while it drifts southward and meanders offshore of the Florida east
coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
That's ok, some parts of the state could still use some rain.
Quoting rutofthewild:
Nothing will happen in florida but typical afternoon showers ...
Quoting 474. StormTrackerScott:




Just about all the models bring 91l into FL tomorrow or early Tuesday and then moves up the center of the state before exiting off NE FL toward the Outerbanks. Either way the GFS is hammering FL with very high ranfall totals.

Infact the GFS has 6" to 8" of rain for the east coast of FL.




This could mean huge rain for east central Florida- just like Fay 2008 and the historic flooding it caused....It could also take a Hurricane Jeanne type path into the east coast before being pulled NE. Shear is zero and SSTs are high where it is. I think we may get a tropical storm out of this system with heavy rain and tropicalstorm conditions likely for a chunk of the east coast of FL. 
HWRF moving closer to other models.








2018 changed you forecast?
It's gonna be an interesting day.
there is one of the reasons why southbound systems in the northern hemisphere dont intensify. dry air is following it south
Quoting 506. Climate175:

It's gonna be an interesting day.


Got 'bust' written all over it.
mmmm? looks like HWRF takes it right up the spine of florida, little south of central fl.
510. FOREX
Quoting 508. yonzabam:



Got 'bust' written all over it.


By Wednesday, more conducive for development.
Quoting rutofthewild:
Nothing will happen in florida but typical afternoon showers ...


You must obviously have a degree in meteorology or climate science based on your excellent observational skills and forecasts.

At this point, none of the models predict anything significant (beyond heavy rain) for Florida, but this is our first Atlantic system of the season so many of the members are understandably excited.

Based on the models, the Outerbanks of N.C. have a much better chance of seeing something signficant from the system.
But when dealing with weather the forecast is sure to change.
*From observing buoy data..
The average sea temp in the area of 91L is running 82degrees..
Winds are running 15-17knts. at buoy #4110..
Lack of cloud cover is influencing the steady air and water temps ATM..
So critical heat energy abounds..
This will take 1-2 more days for a clearer development picture to emerge..
Today will be a "come and go day" for the system IMO..

National Data Buoy Center
Quoting 510. FOREX:



By Wednesday, more conducive for development.
I would kind give it time, i knew this would happen last night when i stated last night that the northern part would be getting disrupted at the Storm2k chat.
Good Morning.

A heavy shower this morning, almost Biblical for about 15 minutes.

First sighting of the Fork-Tailed Fly-Catchers this morning too.
They arrive every year from Argentina and Chile, and always with the first ''real'' Tropical Wave of the season.

Good to see them.
Buenos dias, bird.
Nice spin, but still a pretty dry system on the north side.
NHC Most think it still has a chance, 40/70 is still a good bet. Regardless of development, never under estimate.
Correction-Must
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
NHC Most think it still has a chance, 40/70 is still a good bet. Regardless of development, never under estimate.
Quoting 514. pottery:

Good Morning.

A heavy shower this morning, almost Biblical for about 15 minutes.

First sighting of the Fork-Tailed Fly-Catchers this morning too.
They arrive every year from Argentina and Chile, and always with the first ''real'' Tropical Wave of the season.

Good to see them.
Buenos dias, bird.


Morning pot..
Those are some beautiful birds..
Eye candy for some of us..


Maybe the rain will help the cisterns.. :)
519. FOREX
Quoting 516. hurricanewatcher61:

NHC Most think it still has a chance, 40/70 is still a good bet. Regardless of development, never under estimate.


Considering it came from over land, it is doing quite well. More time over water will help.
It is important to note the GFS/CMC/UKMET don’t show much development. EURO standing alone & NHC placing 5 day odds on that model - Hurricanetracker App
I heck no trust the GFS again unless it's performance does well again. Euro is pretty accurate model.
522. FOREX
Quoting 520. Climate175:

It is important to note the GFS/CMC/UKMET don’t show much development. EURO standing alone & NHC placing 5 day odds on that model - Hurricanetracker App


All we heard was how the EURO is most reliable while the GFS was hinting at that ghost storm for a month. Let's be patient and lean more heavily towards the Euro solution.
Last night's 0z ECMWF showed a slightly more offshore track, it didn't have a Carolinas landfall, just a slight coastal graze. However, it really bombed this out as it moved northeast, with the pressure dropping to around 970mb as it passes a few hundred miles SE of Nantucket. Also, many more of its ensembles last night jumped onto the idea of something deepening as it moves up the coast or offshore. It seems like the GFS is trying to move closer to the ECMWF solution, but it's still pretty weak.

Edit: And for what it's worth, while most of the ECMWF ensembles agree on just a graze for the Carolinas, a fair number of them show a storm that would have a more significant impact on southeast New England, which the operational run has occasionally shown. Still just too soon to say what'll happen though. Let's let it try to develop first.
12z Best Track for 91L.

AL, 91, 2014062912, , BEST, 0, 300N, 777W, 20, 1016, LO
waiting for their call on recon. go mexico
Quoting 522. FOREX:



All we heard was how the EURO is most reliable while the GFS was hinting at that ghost storm for a month. Let's be patient and lean more heavily towards the Euro solution.
Exactly, let's be patient.
527. FOREX
Quoting 525. islander101010:

waiting for their call on recon. go mexico


Who is Mexico playing today??
Time for Recon i believe is 11:45.
Quoting FOREX:


Who is Mexico playing today??

Holland/Netherlands
530. FOREX
Where is WKC? Would like his take on 91L
i dont know forex just rooting for them also a big fan of the game of dominoes.
533. FOREX
Quoting 531. islander101010:

i dont know forex just rooting for them also a big fan of the game of dominoes.


They are playing Holland/Netherlands.
Quote me if I am wrong, but is the center of the low at Florida's 30degree lat line.or a little north of that?
536. FOREX
Good Morning Grothar. 91L is Southbound on track 17 right now.
HWRF precipitation and model forecasts





GFS



ECMWF

FOREX I need to tell you something through wundermail again be ready.
Flash flood emergency for Shelby...DeSoto and Tunica counties...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for... DeSoto County in northwest Mississippi... northern Tunica County in northwest Mississippi... Shelby County in southwest Tennessee...

* until 1030 am CDT

this is a flash flood emergency for Shelby...DeSoto and Tunica counties.

* At 709 am CDT...Doppler radar estimates 4 to 6 inches of rainfall has occurred over the past 6 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will produce an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain over the next 2 hours.

* Locations in the warning include but are not limited to Bartlett... Germantown...Millington...Hernando...Horn Lake...Olive Branch... Southaven...Cordova...Meeman Shelby Forest State Park and T o Fuller State Park.

This warning also includes areas near coronee Lake...Horn Lake... Horseshoe Lake...Lake mckellar and Robco Lake.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...
So 91L still sinking south, and MLB NWS AFD say "THE FAVORED ECMWF ON WED BEGINS TO LIFT THE LOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD REMAINING OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO
LATE WEEK."

That is a long time over and near the Gulf Stream and warm waters, if convection persists we should see increasing organization into a tropical system. We will have to wait and see...
91L is far enough east that locally on the Space Coast I won't be surprised if we stay in the subsidence today, which means another hot one. Might as well take advantage of what's left of the morning.
GFS

(Almost all reliable models are moving 91L closer to Central Florida before the sudden turn back North and Northeast (I would write "recurve" but I am sure there would be a two hour discussion if that is the proper usage)

Good morning all! I see we may have our first TD of the season this week. It's been a while and my brain is still foggy, when is the next run of the models. They all seem to be in somewhat agreement on 91L and I am curious to see if it's consistent on the next model run. TIA and have a great day. Going to take the kiddies to the pool as it looks like we may have some rain in the future
Quoting 536. FOREX:

Good Morning Grothar. 91L is Southbound on track 17 right now.


lol.
gfs looks interesting. keeps 91 onshore as it moves north to the outer banks then turns it on and out to sea.
Morning everyone.



She looks decent this morning.



But I guess everyone's biting their nails for this one.



It's got a day or more at least. Looks ragged ATM with dry air intrusion from moderate vertical shear an obvious factor. A good wait and see. I know we're all anxious
Some dry air is distrupting the system, however convection has been increasing around the center but it will need a nice burst of cold cloud tops before its can develop.
551. beell
As a curiosity:
11Z (at time of post) Buoy Cam on Station 41009 (20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL)
Station 41009

Approximately 200 mi SW of 91L-a bit far to be of much value at present-but a nice morning so far!


click for bigger
It is still very possible this might become a minimal CAT 1 hurricane.
Boo!...

It's looking more likely that 91L will actually come ashore the eastern coast of Florida before the next trough begins to recurve it northeastward. Environmental conditions are decent...not perfect...for slow to steady development up until a potential landfall, and will become even more favorable as it recurves northeastward and benefits from enhanced upper-level divergence in the entrance region of the trough.
in the past week earthquakes seem to be warming up again

M 5.2 - 50km NW of Lordsburg, New Mexico
Time2014-06-28 21:59:33 UTC-07:00Location32.607°N 109.151°WDepth5.0km
557. FOREX
Quoting 555. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's looking more likely that 91L will actually come ashore the eastern coast of Florida before the next trough begins to recurve it northeastward. Environmental conditions are decent...not perfect...for slow to steady development up until a potential landfall, and will become even more favorable as it recurves northeastward and benefits from enhanced upper-level divergence in the entrance region of the trough.


someone posted last night that the trough will not dig down deep enough to affect 91L. Just curious on what you think those chances are?
I'm not buying the ECMWF's solution quite yet that this might become a hurricane. I'll say a 45kt peak as it recurves out to sea.
SPRITES AND GRAVITY WAVES: The sprite show continues. "Every day this week, I have been able to photograph red sprites shooting up from the tops of thunderstorms 400 miles away in Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas," reports Jan Curtis of Santa Fe, NM. On June 27th he saw something more: "At around 10:30PM MDT, gravity wave clouds developed and intensified through midnight."
Folks this is looking very serious by the minute. Zero shear and high octane water over the Gulf Stream and perfect anticyclone and high to the north to ventilate this storm... It might make a run at high end TS or even hurricane status and take a Jeanne path bringing heavy flooding rains and winds across the fl peninsula. Look how quickly it is wrapping up. 
12z Euro comes out at 2pm so we will see the newest data.
HWRF along with the GFS is forecasting as much as 8" of rain across FL with 91L. This is looking like 91L has a high chance of becoming TS Arthur before coming ashore in Brevard County on Tuesday Morning.

91L is getting better organized. Looks like a TD now.

6Z GFS puts it into south florida's east coast...monday...................................

Quoting 564. StormTrackerScott:

91L is getting better organized. Looks like a TD now.


I think we will have a tropical storm by later today and early tomorrow. Also look how big it is getting- tons of rain coming. 
Quoting 561. StPetersburgFL:

Folks this is looking very serious by the minute. Zero shear and high octane water over the Gulf Stream and perfect anticyclone and high to the north to ventilate this storm... It might make a run at high end TS or even hurricane status and take a Jeanne path bringing heavy flooding rains and winds across the fl peninsula. Look how quickly it is wrapping up. 
yes indeed...we really need to watch this one...could be alot of flooding
Quoting 565. LargoFl:

6Z GFS puts it into south florida's east coast...monday...................................


I think the GFS is a little fast there. Probably more like early Tuesday. Either way FL is in for a big dump of rain.
6Z GFS has it close to the tampa bay area on wens..........................................
Quoting 566. StPetersburgFL:


I think we will have a tropical storm by later today and early tomorrow. Also look how big it is getting- tons of rain coming. 


In 2005 hurricane Opheila formed off the east coast of FL and turned into a hurricane in 24 hrs so you can never rule anything out once a system moves over the Gulf Stream. Safe bet would say that we could be dealing with a 50 to 60mph TS in FL.
Quoting 568. StormTrackerScott:



I think the GFS is a little fast there. Probably more like early Tuesday. Either way FL is in for a big dump of rain.
yeah thought it was too fast,we'll see what happens...aircraft hunter flying into it later today...by my area we can use its rains.
Best analog may be Hurricane Alex 2004.
According to Alert Weather Services which is what we use out here on the drilling rig I work on. I can't copy and paste their tropical outlook (copyright reasons) but I reckon I can paraphrase.

The LLC is becoming better defined. Moderate northwest shear is causing convection to be mainly displaced south of the surface center. This is unlikely to completely impede further development. The probabilities of development may steadily increase over the next 24 hours. The HH investigation this afternoon will give more data including core temperatures, which will either classify this as a subtropical or tropical entity. Upper level steering flow will collapse as the low moves further south and it will meander off the Florida coast for 2-3 days influenced by mid level ridging over the SE US. It is still more likely that this low will strengthen into a minimal tropical entity by Tuesday / Wednesday, thus becoming more prone to re curve out to sea, due to an upper level trough swinging into the mid-Atlantic states. In this scenario the Outer Banks of NC could be grazed by the low's western semi-circle. But if the low were to drift south longer than anticipated over the next 48 hours it would be less susceptible to feeling the trough to the north. The chance of this happening is much lower but the steering pattern will be monitored closely for the next 48 hours. This low poses no immediate or intermediate threat to the Gulf of Mexico but will be monitored closely.
Once 91L gets further SW then the northerly shear should go away as there is a nice upper high near FL that should help 91L organize fas come tonight into tomorrow.
12Z Nam............................................... .................................................. ............
Quoting 549. Climate175:




Hi everybody I have not been on in a long time and I hope you all are doing well. I wanted to give some of my input on these models, I think the farther south that the low goes the less likely it is to get caught up in the trough that will come down and pick it up. It may stay off shore of Florida but if it can avoid the trough and high pressure builds back in in time then I think a slow but steady track back to the north toward the Carolinas will be possible. If conditions are right it could be a moderate to strong tropical storm ...Anybody agree with me ?
Quoting 572. Climate175:

Best analog may be Hurricane Alex 2004.


Same area as 91L. I remember Alex well as he blew up fast just east of FL and hammered eastern NC with 85mph winds with gust to 100.
invest 91L looking better this morning
Quoting 564. StormTrackerScott:

91L is getting better organized. Looks like a TD now.



Convective organization is poor at best. This isn't a tropical depression right now.

Quoting 561. StPetersburgFL:

Folks this is looking very serious by the minute. Zero shear and high octane water over the Gulf Stream and perfect anticyclone and high to the north to ventilate this storm... It might make a run at high end TS or even hurricane status and take a Jeanne path bringing heavy flooding rains and winds across the fl peninsula. Look how quickly it is wrapping up. 

Moderate wind shear is still evident on satellite, courtesy of a displaced anticyclone to the storm's southwest. This should lower over the coming days, but conditions shouldn't be at their most favorable until after 91L's landfall/closest approach to Florida.

Quoting 557. FOREX:



someone posted last night that the trough will not dig down deep enough to affect 91L. Just curious on what you think those chances are?

The idea that the storm misses the trough is not supported by any reliable model guidance.
Quoting 566. StPetersburgFL:


I think we will have a tropical storm by later today and early tomorrow. Also look how big it is getting- tons of rain coming. 
I call dibs on borrowing Tazmanians raft!
Shear is high in the Atlantic, Dust is bad as well but dry air on the water vapor image isn't too bad
Brand new tropical models are now in great agreement with a NC skirt late week. Some impacts possible. - The Hurricanetracker App
Quoting 585. Climate175:

Brand new tropical models are now in great agreement with a NC skirt late week. Some impacts possible. - The Hurricanetracker App



I think it will depend on how far south that it goes like I say on what kind of impacts we see.
587. MahFL
Quoting 503. StPetersburgFL:

.. Shear is zero ...


No it's not there is anything between 7 and 18 kts of north to nne shear over the system. Just look how most of the convection on infrared is on the south side of the system.

The forcasted track for 91L kind of reminds me of Beryl's track back in 2012
Shear is moderate over 91 L we'll just have to wait and see what it does. We could be in for a repeat of 2013 but like I say we'll see
590. MahFL
Quoting 578. StormTrackerScott:



... Alex well as he blew up fast just east of FL...


Wasn't that the Alex that caused a lot of Floridians to evacuate, but Alex remained off shore and headed NNE ?

Quoting 570. StormTrackerScott:



In 2005 hurricane Opheila formed off the east coast of FL and turned into a hurricane in 24 hrs so you can never rule anything out once a system moves over the Gulf Stream. Safe bet would say that we could be dealing with a 50 to 60mph TS in FL.
It is going to be a very interesting week for sure. 
I don't think 91 L will develop today but we could see code red today at either 2:00 or 8:00
593. MahFL
Quoting 584. weatherlover94:

Shear is high in the Atlantic, Dust is bad as well but dry air on the water vapor image isn't too bad


Why are you talking about the deep Atlantic ?, we have a disturbance right off the coast of Florida.
91L continues to slowly organize. Banding features are beginning to take shape over the south and eastern semicircles and the system appears to be trying to tighten up its core. Recon will likely try to fly in and investigate the system this afternoon to determine whether or not 91L has developed into a tropical depression. 91L will have approximately 36 hours until a possible graze to the Florida east coast on Monday night or Tuesday, this will likely give it enough time to become a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm by that time. Afterward, depending on how far inland it manages to go, the system will turn north and reemerge off the coast as the next trough approaches. This is when conditions will be the most favorable, and it could allow for further strengthening of 91L into a strong tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane before scraping the Carolinas and being picked up by the trough as it heads northeast.
In the latest TWO the NHC put the odds of development at 40% for the next 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next five days. I'd put these odds higher at 60% for the next 48 hours and 80% for the next five days.
Quoting 541. Guysgal:

Flash flood emergency for Shelby...DeSoto and Tunica counties...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for... DeSoto County in northwest Mississippi... northern Tunica County in northwest Mississippi... Shelby County in southwest Tennessee...

* until 1030 am CDT

this is a flash flood emergency for Shelby...DeSoto and Tunica counties.


So far, there isn't a large amount of media coverage.

WREG-TV has a small story and a small photo gallery:
http://wreg.com/2014/06/29/flooding-a-problem-in- many-areas/

WMC-TV has a bit more story but fewer pictures. Looks like the area they are showing was hit hard before the pictures were taken. The pictures show a large dumpster that was moved by floodwaters and some cars that were left stranded:
http://www.wmcactionnews5.com/story/25897599/flas h-flooding-strands-drivers-in-memphis



Quoting 587. MahFL:



No it's not there is anything between 7 and 18 kts of north to nne shear over the system. Just look how most of the convection on infrared is on the south side of the system.


Moot point- shear will decrease and the system is already organizing. Florida will have rain and tropical storm conditions from this system. 


I know that everyone is focused on 91L, but there is also a moderate risk of severe weather today accompanied by a 10% tornado risk. Ames, Des Moines, Lincoln, and Omaha are all located within the boundaries of the greatest tornado risk. Hail risks will also be present.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0828 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains
and the middle and upper Mississippi Valley region this afternoon...

* LOCATIONS...
Central and Southern Iowa
Northern Missouri
Northeastern Kansas
Southeastern Nebraska

* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few tornadoes
Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, a few
tornadoes, and swaths of damaging winds are possible especially
this afternoon and tonight across portions of the Central Plains
to the middle and upper Mississippi Valley.
Yes, 91L is getting better organized... and I can't wait to see something like that just east of me... with a 90% chance of development.

I'm in search of GOOD WEATHER. Because it's too boring now in the Leewards...


High clouds + dust = UGLY SKY.
Look at the area its heading into.............................................. ...............
Look at how many have it going into FL now

Quoting 593. MahFL:



Why are you talking about the deep Atlantic ?, we have a disturbance right off the coast of Florida.



Im just looking over things, haven't been on here in a long time
Quoting 555. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's looking more likely that 91L will actually come ashore the eastern coast of Florida before the next trough begins to recurve it northeastward. Environmental conditions are decent...not perfect...for slow to steady development up until a potential landfall, and will become even more favorable as it recurves northeastward and benefits from enhanced upper-level divergence in the entrance region of the trough.


If I had to guess, I would say it would come offshore around the Jacksonville/Jekyll Island GA area.
Quoting 594. TylerStanfield:

91L continues to slowly organize. Banding features are beginning to take shape over the south and eastern semicircles and the system appears to be trying to tighten up its core. Recon will likely try to fly in and investigate the system this afternoon to determine whether or not 91L has developed into a tropical depression. 91L will have approximately 36 hours until a possible graze to the Florida east coast on Monday night or Tuesday, this will likely give it enough time to become a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm by that time. Afterward, depending on how far inland it manages to go, the system will turn north and reemerge off the coast as the next trough approaches. This is when conditions will be the most favorable, and it could allow for further strengthening of 91L into a strong tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane before scraping the Carolinas and being picked up by the trough as it heads northeast.
In the latest TWO the NHC put the odds of development at 40% for the next 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next five days. I'd put these odds higher at 60% for the next 48 hours and 80% for the next five days.

Recon is cancelled, I think?

EDIT: The latest Plan of the Day is actually from Friday, so I don't know if a decision has been made yet.
Today’s Hurricane Hunter mission has been cancelled due to lack of organization - From the Hurricanetracker App.
Quoting 601. SFLWeatherman:

Look at how many have it going into FL now

yeah, those on the east coast of florida, if you flood easily,now would be a good time for whatever preps need to be done, just in case,if it turns away, your preps are ready for the next one...but more models now are putting this into florida.
Quoting 606. Climate175:

Today’s Hurricane Hunter mission has been cancelled due to lack of organization - From the Hurricanetracker App.
it figures, we get blind sided tomorrow.
Quoting 606. Climate175:

Today’s Hurricane Hunter mission has been cancelled due to lack of organization - From the Hurricanetracker App.


Not a big issue, if 91L can become better organized throughout the day I am sure the NHC will have the hurricane hunters on standby for an overnight mission or early Monday mission with respect to the proximity to the Coast. It would be nice to see what type of low level feature is there with 91L with the HH data but that will have to wait for now.
Quoting 583. Llamaluvr:

I call dibs on borrowing Tazmanians raft!



evere time you talk about me you be reported plzs stop
Looks like 91L wants to come say hi to me. Surprised that it's modeled to come so far down the coast.

91l is now rapidly intensifying... it will eventually form into a cat 2 hurricane headed for east of North Carolina.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 609. sporteguy03:



Not a big issue, if 91L can become better organized throughout the day I am sure the NHC will have the hurricane hunters on standby for an overnight mission or early Monday mission with respect to the proximity to the Coast. It would be nice to see what type of low level feature is there with 91L with the HH data but that will have to wait for now.
I was thinking a stand-by should be issued.
Quoting 600. LargoFl:

Look at the area its heading into.............................................. ...............

Good observation, shear is still an issue as seen in the satellite, but it will be near the gulf stream and warm enough ssts that it could organize nicely if shear abates further.
Yep.. According to this image it appears that Florida is most definitely under the gun. Tie down your lawn furniture and close the carport doors.


619. MahFL
Quoting 439. swflurker:

Check the wind map out. Shows where the circulation is. Link


Those are model winds, not the actual recorded wind. It's a good general visualization though of the wind conditions.
620. MahFL
Quoting 551. beell:

As a curiosity:
11Z (at time of post) Buoy Cam ..


Wow, I did not know some of them had cams now.
It would be very rare indeed for the center of 91-L to make landfall anywhere along the East coast of Florida before it is picked up and moves North or Northeast. Some of the outer bands of rain may brush along the coast but I don't see a Florida East coast landfall with this system. Is it possible, yes! But unlikely. In the past there have been many Tropical Storms and Hurricanes that formed off the East Coast of Florida only to move Northeast out to sea. Maybe 91-L will do something most others have not. That's why we are all so interested in Hurricanes as you never really know for sure what they are going to do. Remember the Yankee Hurricane of November 1935 slammed into Miami Beach from the North East with wind gust close to 100-MPH.
622. beell
Landfall at Port St Lucie as a TD tomorrow night. Perhaps farther south.
(for entertainment purposes only)

623. MahFL
Quoting 597. StPetersburgFL:


Moot point- shear will decrease and the system is already organizing. Florida will have rain and tropical storm conditions from this system. 


It's not a moot point, you can't say shear is zero when it clearly is not. You can say shear is low to moderate but saying shear is zero does not give you much wiggle room at all.
High pressure over the Gulf will block the up coming front from lifting this storm up and out to the east north east. Which will mean Florida's east coast should keep a close eye on this storm until that front moves through. If in fact the front passes it will allow the gulf high pressure to move slightly east and a bit north which could leave a lingering storm with no where to go but across Fl into the Gulf with a second chance for land fall near the panhandle. With warm water and virtually no reason for this storm to be blown apart we could have a major hurricane in the Gulf this time next week....Before you go crazy and complain I am nuts consider me to be the only one I know who bases my predictions on current conditions without and modeling factors. Which means tomorrow I could flip and change to a new prediction in the morning.... If the consistency of conditions continues I stand by my prediction for 7 days out. If not, Disregard my post! :)
The Hunters should be taking off in about 2 or so hrs
Evening all. At work and just on a fly by and checking in on the little early season system off the coast. Hope all are well.