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Disturbance 91L more organized, but headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:18 PM GMT on May 28, 2009

An area of disturbed weather (91L), located about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. QuikSCAT imagery from last night revealed a closed surface circulation, but top winds of only 20 - 25 mph.

The disturbance is over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream (25°C) and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until this evening, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track northeastward at 15 mph today, and and is not a threat to any land areas. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 91L.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida last week, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Equipment will also be provided to local shelters and other organizations working with flood victims. To help out, visit the Portlight disaster relief blog..


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts over Florida for the two weeks ending on May 27, 2009. Images credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters
90L Air Mass Mammas
90L Air Mass Mammas
These are some air mass t-storms generated in part by the influence of storm 90L that has been bringing lots of rain to S. Florida this last week. This view is from 35,000 ft over Tampa, FL.
Spider Shock
Spider Shock
Taken with a 16mm lense this was a huge bolt that reached across the sky... Enjoy Mark www.shockpic.smugmug.com

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks DR. Masters!
thanks Dr. M
On a side note, and unsure if it is allowed, but...

weather.com has a new feature up called Trupoint Map, and it has a prediction feature for radar and clouds. The period is about 3 1/2 hours into the future... I'm wondering how handy it will be when it comes to predicting landfall locations of 'canes, as 3 1/2 hours is enough time for a storm to turn a new direction. I wonder if TWC will have an eye denoted, or just a massive blob. I guess we'll see when (and hopefully just if) a storm hits the US.

PS - EDIT:
WoW at convection pop on 91L - look at trop floater 1, visible. And Dr. M's pic has a "Dreaded Pinhole Eye" type feature. LoL
a 7.1 has hit La Ceiba, Honduras.

Link
Looking at Figure 2... 20+ inches of rain.. I cannot even imagine or picture that in my mind.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. Florida needed rain and we got a little too much of it. I just hope these blobs in the gulf don't bring us much more.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters!
Good morning all

Thanks for the update Dr M

Morning Orca. Really is a lot of rain; and I am not sure anyone was expecting the flooding that occurred.

I see the mcc from last night shows no signs of a surface low. Seems Levi was spot on, although was still surprised to see this in the Gulf earlier this morning...

Red Cross closes one shelter

(Daytona Beach) May 25, 2009 - The Florida’s Coast to Coast Chapter of the American Red Cross has announced that the flood relief shelter at SICA Hall, 1065 Daytona Ave., Holly Hill, closed at noon Monday, May 25.

The radar of La Bajada in Pinar del Rio is observing a squall line that comes near to the West of Cuba. Saturday and all the Sunday are augured at night rains during.
I wondering if all these pre-season invest are a indication that we're headed for a season like 05',what were the TC forcasts at the beging of 05'???,were they predicting above ave season????,I'm interested to find out!!!


Do they come in two's now?
Link

A new testbed product we are trying out in air traffic control flow management. The forecast is determined solely by statistics and historical data. Overlaid is the Collaborative Convective Forecast product (CCFP) that we presently use to plan. The CCFP is a based on joint decisions between the NWS and the air traffic Center Weather Units.
now there two of them heh

The GOM and 91L when you look at the U.S. water vapor map give a whole new meaning to Blob Watching!



Link
Cool pictures.

First, I am not a weather professional so my opinion or hunch, may not mean much, but I think the East Coast will be the bulls' eye this year. I am not just talking Miami, but places that these storms have not hit in a long time.

Back to lurking.
oh by the way there olny 5kt of shear overe 91L


Link
CSU and the Noaa both predicted a much above average season,but nobody could predict what we were in for!!Link
91l may have a chance
Quoting breald:
Cool pictures.

First, I am not a weather professional so my opinion or hunch, may not mean much, but I think the East Coast will be the bulls' eye this year. I am not just talking Miami, but places that these storms have not hit in a long time.

Back to lurking.


I just can't tell you how much I hope you're wrong...
24. IKE
Quoting presslord:


I just can't tell you how much I hope you're wrong...


Watch out Carlina's!!!!

I mean NC and SC!
A pinhole eye on an invest, twin blobs in the GOM and it's not even June 1st. Can someone please tell Mother Nature we have a calendar and she needs to stick to it.
26. IKE
Quoting leelee75k:
A pinhole eye on an invest, twin blobs in the GOM and it's not even June 1st. Can someone please tell Mother Nature we have a calendar and she needs to stick to it.


This is why they should officially start the Atlantic tropical season May 15th.

It's just this blogger's opinion.
This one agrees with the Ike.
What season begins June 1st?
'morning all! :)

P'colaDoug and I have decided to extend the test of the XtremeHurricanes.com live webcam / remote hurricane weather station one more day.

We're continuing the test to determine how long the dual deep-cycle battery can continue to power the system. Right now, we're at 25-hours and counting!

We're also monitoring our usage with the VerizonWireless broadband card. Yesterday's 24-hour usage was just 1.62 gig [against the 5 gig limit per month].

All of this is really good news. We have "xtremely" fast and stable streaming being provided by Abacast.com, a stable Windows XP Dell Mini-9, and stable camera / microphone operations.

So you all get an opportunity to spend one more day with the birds!

Enjoy! I'd say we're more than ready to deploy the system when it's go-time.

CycloneOz---

btw: to AussieStorm...the birds in the shots are finches, a red-headed woodpecker, hummingbirds and other assorted fowl that I know not the names.

We live directly on a canyon in Los Alamos, NM. If you take two steps out of the back gate, you'll fall 200 feet. Needless to say, I've locked that gate and threw away the key.

The view from our living room picture window of the canyon cannot be adequately described. It is, in a word, spectacular!

Ah...life in the high desert. Only one thing can beat it...and it's name is "Florida." [sniff...me homesick.] ;)
Quoting presslord:


I just can't tell you how much I hope you're wrong...


I know what you mean. I live about 17 miles from the ocean on the east coast. The only thing working in our favor is the storms are not usually that massive once they get over the colder waters.
31. P451
NHC to drop storm surge descriptions from the saffir simpson scale.

Link



..and so far May has been quite interesting. Hope it's not a trend.
that blob in the gulf my have a ch has it comes in too 5 to 10kt of shear on the other sild of FL
33. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:
What season begins June 1st?


Atlantic tropical season.
It should be a regular yearly thing, start January 1st and end December 31st, then Mother Nature can do her thing whenever she feels like it and people in hurricane country can concentrate on being prepared year round and not just in the beginning of June or when a cane approaches, but that will never work since people will always wait till the last minute to do anything.

does anyone think that 91L will be TS Ana or is the winds too low for that?
Wasn't someone saying Dr. Gray was going to lower his numbers in his next update?
"The Old Gray Mare Just Ain't What She Used To Be"
Hurricane Preparedness Week

Thurs, May 28 "Forecast Process"


The Tropical Prediction Center, the NHC and the Miami WFO
The Tropical Prediction Center,
the NHC, and the Miami WFO, 1999

Part of the mission of the National Weather Service (NWS) Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) is to save lives and protect property by issuing watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous weather conditions in the tropics. This section provides information about the roles of those responsible for providing hurricane information to emergency managers and decision makers.

The TPC is comprised of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), and the Technical Support Branch (TSB). During hurricane season, the latter two provide support to the NHC.

The local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in hurricane-prone areas are also important participants in the forecast process.

The NHC and your local WFO have various roles in the forecast process that are closely coordinated.
Thanks Ike. For a moment I thought it was the Atlantic hurricane season.
40. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:
Thanks Ike. For a moment I thought it was the Atlantic hurricane season.


LOL.
May 15th for the start of season? Where is the justification? We have not had any tropical systems to date and we are a few days away from the official start.

How often do we see anything tropical in May ?
The Last 3 years have seen May development
And weve already has a Presidential Disaster signing,for Fla.
Quoting stillwaiting:
CSU and the Noaa both predicted a much above average season,but nobody could predict what we were in for!!Link


thus my guess per Ossqss "Season's Picks" No one is going to get it right.... She be a tricky one ol MaNature
Quoting Orcasystems:
Looking at Figure 2... 20 inches of rain.. I cannot even imagine or picture that in my mind.


thats what 20 plus inches looks like
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
"The Old Gray Mare Just Ain't What She Used To Be"


Hope you're not talking about me!!
except for a nice satellite view.. there is nothing but areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms in 2 areas of the gulf..nothing tropical is with these 2 areas... this is along a midlevel frontal boundry.

Next 91l I believe is a TD...sat estimates could be off by 5-10mph on such a small system. This is a closed circulation with even a little banding affect. Should of been designated this morning..but always up to the NHC.
Aussie -- such EXTREMES!!!! Seems like the other day we were looking a torched AussieLand..... now swamped AussieLand..... has this rain gotten to the farm areas that are suffering so badly from drought and replenished the main river that feeds the farming belt???
Goooooood Morning!

I love this place - I can see a what's going on before the WC or my local news ever says a word about it.

In regards to hurricane preparation (asked the other day but I don't think I got a response). If the canned stuff in your hurricane cabinet has been there for a year, expiration is okay but it's been in the garage...should I toss it and replenish? I assume the water and such needs to go in the trash...
Quoting surfmom:


Hope you're not talking about me!!


I WOULDN'T do such a thing ;-b
IMHO, I don't see enough over the sample timeframe to justify it.

LIST OF ALL "OUT OF SEASON" TROPICAL STORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
Please Credit WeatherMatrix.AccuWeather.com


2007: May 9 - May 11: Subtropical Storm Andrea spins off Southeast Coast [Blog]
2005: Dec 30 – Jan 6: Tropical Storm Zeta [WikiPedia]
2003: Apr 21 - 24: Tropical Storm Ana [WikiPedia] at sea
1981: May 06 - 09: Tropical Storm Arlene hits Cuba and the Bahamas
1976: May 21 - 25: Subtropical Storm 1 crosses northern Florida, southern Georgia
1972: May 23 - 29: Subtropical Storm Alpha crosses northern Florida and southern Georgia
1970: May 17 - 27: Hurricane Alma is a hurricane for six hours over the Caribbean south of Cuba
1959: May 02 - 6/2: Tropical Storm Arlene hits Louisiana
1953: May 25 - 6/6: Tropical Storm Alice hits Honduras, Florida Panhandle
1952: Feb 02 - 05: Tropical Storm 1 crosses southern Florida
1951: May 15 - 24: Hurricane Able near Bahamas, Cat 3 strength off NC coast
1948: May 22 - 28: Tropical storm crosses Haiti
1940: May 19 - 27: Tropical storm stays at sea
1934: May 27 - 31: Tropical storm hits Florida, South Carolina
1933: May 14 - 19: Tropical storm hits Mexico
1932: May 05 - 11: Tropical storm crosses the Dominican Republic
1908: Mar 06 - 09: Hurricane crosses northeastern Caribbean Sea islands
1889: May 16 - 21: Hurricane stays at sea
1887: May 17 - 21: Tropical storm hits Cuba, Bahamas




Link
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2

Off to my version of a Tropical Rainforest
Quoting melwerle:
Goooooood Morning!

I love this place - I can see a what's going on before the WC or my local news ever says a word about it.

In regards to hurricane preparation (asked the other day but I don't think I got a response). If the canned stuff in your hurricane cabinet has been there for a year, expiration is okay but it's been in the garage...should I toss it and replenish? I assume the water and such needs to go in the trash...


I think the water should be fine.
53. Thank you!
Quoting surfmom:
Aussie -- such EXTREMES!!!! Seems like the other day we were looking a torched AussieLand..... now swamped AussieLand..... has this rain gotten to the farm areas that are suffering so badly from drought and replenished the main river that feeds the farming belt???

mostly coastal... made it into many of the catchment areas so our dams are getting a nice top up..... did u see the pic of the guys surfing in Sydney Harbour
Quoting presslord:
Red Cross closes one shelter

(Daytona Beach) May 25, 2009 - The Florida’s Coast to Coast Chapter of the American Red Cross has announced that the flood relief shelter at SICA Hall, 1065 Daytona Ave., Holly Hill, closed at noon Monday, May 25.


Hi Paul... Thanks for helping the folks out in my community...that's a long reach! And we appreciate Portlight's efforts. you may want to post Portlight information on the united way's 2-1-1 site at www.211live.org. I rode my motorcycle through affected areas in Holly Hill yesterday on business and most of the waters are now gone. What's left, of course, is the long process of clean up.
Quoting melwerle:
Goooooood Morning!

I love this place - I can see a what's going on before the WC or my local news ever says a word about it.

In regards to hurricane preparation (asked the other day but I don't think I got a response). If the canned stuff in your hurricane cabinet has been there for a year, expiration is okay but it's been in the garage...should I toss it and replenish? I assume the water and such needs to go in the trash...
I would think it would be fine, if there are no tears in the aluminum. Did it get hot enough to cook the canned goods?
You are not going to pack that stuff and take it with you, are you? And you will not catch much of hurricane season. I would think you would be fine.
Wonder if you emailed the producer, if they could tell you?

PS - I usually eat my hurricane shelf goods over the winter and replace over the spring (picking up goods on sale)
58. IKE
How many special tropical weather outlooks have they already issued in May? Thanks to the NHC for already doing their job early. How many invests have there been in the east-PAC?

It doesn't really matter about a June 1st start date. It's just a date on a calendar, but things can start earlier and occasionally do.

To me, it's already started. Is a major hurricane a possibility in May? No. But it doesn't take a major to inflict major damage.
59. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

mostly coastal... made it into many of the catchment areas so our dams are getting a nice top up..... did u see the pic of the guys surfing in Sydney Harbour


I saw that.
57. KEH - thank you. I think that maybe I'll just toss everything - it may have been warm enough in the garage to cook it. Who knows. Here for at least another month (it looks like). Hoping it gives me enough time to boogie before the season heats up. I will be watching still to see if everyone is okay here though. :)
Mel,
We usually eat up the canned goods during the winter as well as drink the bottled water. If you're not comfortable with keeping it another season, donate it to a local food bank. They are running low here in Jax do to the economy and donations being down. I'm sure they would appreciate it. Just a thought. :)
Quoting melwerle:
Goooooood Morning!

I love this place - I can see a what's going on before the WC or my local news ever says a word about it.

In regards to hurricane preparation (asked the other day but I don't think I got a response). If the canned stuff in your hurricane cabinet has been there for a year, expiration is okay but it's been in the garage...should I toss it and replenish? I assume the water and such needs to go in the trash...
Avoiding Mold Hazards in Your Flooded Home

moldy wall
Mold on wall extends above flood level because the moisture wicked up the drywall.
respirator
Wear an N95 or better respirator to reduce your exposure to mold spores disturbed during cleanup.



A flood-damaged building requires special attention to avoid or correct a mold explosion. Molds produce spores spread easily through the air, and they form new mold growths (colonies) when they find the right conditions: moisture, nutrients (nearly anything organic) and a place to grow.

Mold can damage materials and health. The longer mold is allowed to grow, the greater the risk and the harder the cleanup. So as soon as the floodwaters recede and it is safe to return, don%u2019t delay cleanup and drying

Take photographs to document damages for insurance purposes, and get started. It is not wise to wait for the adjuster to see it in person. Most homeowners' insurance policies do not cover mold damage or mold remediation costs.
61. Not a bad idea either. Would feel kind of crappy giving the folks there food poisoning if it was no good.

57. KEHCharleston

PS - I usually eat my hurricane shelf goods over the winter and replace over the spring (picking up goods on sale)


That is the best practice. Any perishable item will degrade faster in excessive heat regardless of the expiration date. Cycling it assures a better chance it will be good when needed. Just my take and SOP.
The only effect 91L will have on us in New England is to keep that cold damp onshore flow over us.40's to 50's yesterday and today. Not fun
This is the best 91L has looked yet, heavy convection over the center, low shear. Today is the absolute last day 91L can develop into Ana. Any quicksat data to get an idea of the wind?
Corps of Engineers tests floodgates at drainage canals in preparation for start of hurricane season

by Cain Burdeau, The Associated Press
Wednesday May 27, 2009, 2:48 PM

With the fourth hurricane season since Katrina set to begin Monday, the Army Corps of Engineers said Wednesday that contractors are working almost around the clock to build better flood protection, and that the city's system of pumps and floodgates is ready.

The corps tested floodgates at drainage canals, turned on pumps and went through a series of hurricane drills Wednesday in preparation for a storm season that ends in November.
Here is a Link
Quoting melwerle:
61. Not a bad idea either. Would feel kind of crappy giving the folks there food poisoning if it was no good.

Hope that helps.
Pat, they have a massive clean up task ahead down in Volusia County...1500 homes with major flood damage is pretty significant. It will take those folks awhile to get back on their feet.

With a lot of the area being in lower income housing; they are certainly in need of all the help they can get.
the NHC should do something about 91L.
NOLA sent a contingent from Levee's.org to Volusia County to assist with the cleanup,..

Mask,Bleach,..and other Flood remediation equipment went east as well.

That's a Lotta Homes to gut and remediate.
Poll: Most coastal residents unprepared for hurricanes

Two-thirds of residents in Florida and other coastal states feel no threat from storms. More than half don't have a hurricane survival kit or know whether their homeowner's insurance covers storm damage.



Some other results:

• 83 percent of respondents have taken no steps to make their homes stronger;

• 55 percent have no family disaster plan;

• 13 percent said they would not evacuate even if ordered to do so.

The poll surveyed 1,100 adults from 18 Gulf and Atlantic coast states who were interviewed May 6-11. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
invest_RENUMBER_al912009_al012009.ren

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Poll: Most coastal residents unprepared for hurricanes

Two-thirds of residents in Florida and other coastal states feel no threat from storms. More than half don't have a hurricane survival kit or know whether their homeowner's insurance covers storm damage.



Some other results:

%u2022 83 percent of respondents have taken no steps to make their homes stronger;

%u2022 55 percent have no family disaster plan;

%u2022 13 percent said they would not evacuate even if ordered to do so.

The poll surveyed 1,100 adults from 18 Gulf and Atlantic coast states who were interviewed May 6-11. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.


These are the same people who get mad when they can't get help because no one can get to them after a storm.
Help Portlight help Others this Hurricane Season.
Give what you can and encourage others to do the same.

Portlight Volusia County Flood Page.
TD1 Is Born
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
invest_RENUMBER_al912009_al012009.ren



Whoa! Renumber!
The first Tropical Depression of the season has formed!
Its still a Phish,..a Phish by any other name,is still a Phish.

LOL
Quoting BrandiQ:


These are the same people who get mad when they can't get help because no one can get to them after a storm.


And the same ones you see drinking it up at the bar on the news with 40mph winds picking up.
Its on the Navy site now. 01L.One.
Tropical Depression 1, May 28th 2009.
Expect a special advisory shortly.
well it looks like we now have TD 1
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


And the same ones you see drinking it up at the bar on the news with 40mph winds picking up.


Thats true too.
dos it have time to be come a name storm
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos it have time to be come a name storm


I dont think the waters are warm enough but you never know.
On navy site.
01L.ONE, TRACK_VIS, 28 MAY 2009 1415Z.
If you can't see it, press ALL.
Welcome Tropical Depression Cod. Enjoy your sea cruise.... :)
000
WTNT21 KNHC 281446
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1500 UTC THU MAY 28 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 71.0W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 71.0W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 71.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 38.5N 68.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 40.2N 64.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 41.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 43.0N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 71.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

its now on the nhc
and wed 91L was RIP





ooops
TD1 looks good. Shear is fairly favorable and thunderstorms are directly over the center. I would not be too surprised to see it strengthen fairly quickly until it reaches colder water temperatures tommorow.
Quoting BrandiQ:


I dont think the waters are warm enough but you never know.


NHC is forecasting a TS at 35kts (40.25mph)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 281450
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCICATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SINCE ABOUT 04Z THIS MORNING
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE 25-26C WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE
T2.0 AND T1.5...RESPECTIVELY. AN AMSU PASS AT 1033Z HELPS TO PLACE
THE CENTER ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/15. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 36 HOURS...WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LOSE DEFINITION IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.

VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIVING
OFF THE NARROW GULF STREAM WATERS. AS LONG AS IT REMAINS THERE SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL SST
INPUT TO THE MODEL APPEAR TOO COLD. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...A LOSS OF CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IS EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 37.3N 71.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 38.5N 68.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 40.2N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 41.5N 60.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 43.0N 55.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


NHC is forecasting a TS at 35kts (40.25mph)


Looks like they plan on naming it.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 281449
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.3N 71.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN
Flooded Daytona Beach

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This is why we never RIP systems..
TD-1 looks likely to be named today.
our season yet again started early, earlier than last year's Arthur.
why i be WOW



from RIP last night too TD 1 today and may be a name storm well now


if this be comes a name storm this will be the 3 or 4th may in a row that we had a name storm be for june 1st
so if TD 1 gets name be for may ends this will be the 3dr year in a row that we had a name storm be for june 1st

may 2008 had a may storm



may 2007 had a may storm


Quoting Tazmanian:
so if TD 1 gets name be for may ends this will be the 3dr year in a row that we had a name storm be for june 1st

may 2008 had a may storm



may 2007 had a may storm




Becoming a trend isn't it?
WoW!!!Td#1
I believe someone mentioned a few weeks ago that if we get a named system in May it would be three years in a row - first time on record for that.
91L sould be name bills



has 90L sould have been name ANNA

oh well
Our first TD of the season and fortunately going out to sea and hopefully NO one will be impacted.
Quoting sporteguy03:


Becoming a trend isn't it?




sure looks like it



see you all later
It may not have time to get to Anna,its approaching some very cold waters, unless it stays over the Gulf stream for a while
Ivor van Heerden cites policy lapses in Abita Springs talk

by Benjamin Alexander-Bloch, The Times-Picayune
Thursday May 28, 2009, 8:10 AM

Embattled public scientist Ivor van Heerden, who led investigations into Hurricane Katrina levee failures and whose forthcoming termination has been announced by LSU, spoke in Abita Springs on Wednesday night, reiterating his often repeated rallying cry that the Army Corps of Engineers failed in its duty to protect the New Orleans area.

He warned that scientists must be more integrated in public policy if future disasters are to be mitigated.

"What happened in New Orleans wasn't the natural disaster; the natural disaster was the trigger. The real disaster was the man-made structure, " van Heerden said. "If the levees hadn't failed, we wouldn't be talking about Katrina."

Van Heerden also briefly discussed his forthcoming dismissal, which the dean of the LSU's College of Engineering informed him of last month.

His nontenured appointment as a research professor will end in May 2010. He has been stripped of his title as deputy director of the LSU Hurricane Center. He remains director of the LSU Center for the Study of Public Health Impacts of Hurricanes until his contract ends next year.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


NHC is forecasting a TS at 35kts (40.25mph)


Not for very long.
We have tropical depression 1.

Tropical Update (Will be Updated)
I wasn't around when Portlight was started...is it a WU organization?
Quoting BrandiQ:


Not for very long.


Agree.

A name is a name though and I guarantee it wasn't included in anyone's seasonal forecast.
Quoting CaneWarning:
I wasn't around when Portlight was started...is it a WU organization?


One hundred days which changed the lives of so many...
Thanks Storm, I assume its organized so well mainly due to the fact its sitting over the Gulf stream. And as far as any impact,its keeps us cool and damp for the next day or so
Quoting StormW:


The projected path keeps it in the Gulfstream until late tonight/early tomorrow

Anyone want TD1 to stay in the Gulfstream?
Quoting Patrap:


One hundred days which changed the lives of so many...


Thanks. Good story. I'm in.
Pat...you may only be a year younger than me...but you're a heck of a lot quicker....
LOL..

Is it a year or so many months?

Seems the weather will co-operate for yer Graduation event tomorrow.
I wouldn't mind seeing TD1 become Ana. It gets one name out of the way and doesn't really make much of a difference to anyone near the storm.
from your lips to God's ears on the weather tomorrow...I just turned 50 in Marc...and am feeling every decade of it...
I sent ya a wu-note,..
Morning... well just in time for the HURR season.
Anyone taken a look at Key West radar this morning? Looks like a line of storms will hit SWFL later this afternoon.

Cane and Pat have WU mail

www.portlight.org
morning everyone, will this low that is coming out of tx into the gulf turn into anything?? looks like it might if it has any time to sit still....
129. 7544
now watching texas blob no 2 i think thats the the one the gfsx was showing yesterday and again today as maybe getting to flaLink
It will move east but shear is abotu 40 kts inbetween and wont change much until it passes florida so i wouldnt think much of it. Course here in volusia county we dont need the rain it might bring with it.
new blog
Is that area east of the interstate a fire or???