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Disturbance 90L continues towards the Western Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:31 PM GMT on October 27, 2007

A surface low pressure system (90L) moved over Puerto Rico Friday, and is now centered about 175 miles south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. The system has maintained its spin and some respectable heavy thunderstorm activity in the face of some hostile wind shear of 30-35 over the past day. This wind shear has fallen to 20-30 knots this morning, which is still too high to allow development today. Long range radar of of Puerto Rico shows isolated bands of heavy rain that are not well-organized continue to affect the region. Satellite loops show most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is to the east of the low's center of circulation, and the high wind shear is keeping this thunderstorm activity disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed circulation with top winds of about 30 mph to the north of the center.


Figure 1. Lastest satellite rainfall estimate of 90L.

The system is headed west at about 10 mph, and will continue to bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides to Puerto Rico today. Heavy rains of up to 4 inches have already fallen in southest Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands so far from this storm. (Figure 1). Heavy rains may also affect the Dominican Republic and Haiti today and Sunday.

The computer models forecasts this morning are similar to yesterday's runs, although some of the guidance has shifted further northwards, implying more of threat to Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida. It is possible 90L could intensify into a tropical depression as early as Sunday, since wind shear will fall below 20 knots by then. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly Sunday afternoon, if necessary. The UKMET, ECMWF, and NOGAPS models predict that 90L will develop into a tropical storm by Monday as it moves slowly into the Western Caribbean, just south of Cuba. This track would favor 90L developing into a hurricane late next week. NOGAPS indicates 90L might turn northwards over South Florida late next week, but the other two models keep 90L trapped in the Western Caribbean. The GFS model keeps wind shear 15-25 knots through the period, and does not develop 90L. The HWRF and GFDL models suggest 90L may move down the length of Cuba then into the Bahamas and recurve to the northeast, missing South Florida. This sort of significant interaction with land would keep 90L from developing into a hurricane, and these models predict just a weak tropical storm will form.

One possible wild card is the disturbed area of weather that has formed in the extreme Western Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance is currently very disorganized, but is under only 10 knots of wind shear. If it starts to develop early next week, it could alter the path and development of 90L.

Residents and visitors to the Western Caribbean should continue to anticipate the possibility of a hurricane forming in the Western Caribbean by late next week.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

pat, ya yanked my leash into the chatroom, you done walked out.
WAVETRAK..last 10-days of wave traffic..Atlantic

Link
Right now its 50/50 between the models. 70/30 when we through out the GFDL, BAMD, CMC models.
505. 0741
no one in chatroom
I'm watching the "Tampa Gets Hit by a Cat 3" It Could Happen Tomorrow on TWC. I'll be back after a little while. . .
501. aquak9 2:21 PM EDT on October 27, 2007 pat, ya yanked my leash into the chatroom, you done walked out.

Yea me too but think folks he hoped to distract didn't follow. Time for me to enter lurking mode. Watch the big dogs hunt and learn.
A system like this vigorous Low center is hard to just wind down. As it slides west,wnw thru time,its all timing and conditions aloft now. The models are slow in motion thru 5-6 days. A lingering just off shore with a vertical column built,and 90L could get the cylinders going.
But then again,..it may find shear, and that stuff west of it, a hindrance. Will be a late season nailbiter,.Stay Tuned
the difference between 90l and other investigates is there are no competing vortices. this will fly and wrap up bigtime.

the difference between 90l and other investigates is there are no competing vortices. this will fly and wrap up bigtime.

the HWRF 12z is inline with the GFDL 12z the NOGAPS 12z still thinks that the system will get to the western tip of Cuba then get picked up by a trough.
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071027 1800 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 70.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 69.4W DIRM12 = 247DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 68.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Hey Hhunter where and how you been.
the ship models have increased their intensity with 90L on the 18Z runs.
Not sure what the GFDL is thinking with a fish strom out of 90L.
wow ships model brings 90L to 79kts
me either Adrian. I really don't know what to think of these 12z runs. Both the HWRF and GFDL show that the system should be a tropical storm by now which is not the case. Also have them as fish food.
Lake Okie for those in Fla. needs this GOM Stuff to sit over it fer a spell.

THe Storm Totals are 10" Plus now

Link
the difference between 90l and other investigates is there are no competing vortices. this will fly and wrap up bigtime.

It looks like based upon dvorak positions the center is exposed again, however doesnt really mean anything right now
It is barely exposed though
The LLC is running away from the convection if you look at visibles and you wont get significant developement if that continues.
But as the TCFA said, the shear should become more favorable as it moves westward
NEXRAD Radar
San Juan Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

30 frame Loop




Link
Actually looking at the visible loop the LLC isnt running away from the convection, its just the convection waned over the center
If the current motion of 280 degrees is maintained 90L would track to the S of Jamaica into the NW Caribbean. The TCHP in that region will certainly support a hurricane, and a strong one at that assuming the atmospheric dynamics are right when it gets there
I'm gonna wait till tomorrow and monday to start really looking at the models.
However after dmin convection should build again
It appears the way cause this still is a sheared system maybe things will change into tommorow.
Ships intensity Forcast is showing near Cat 1 in 72-96 hours.
Updated models out to sea? We'll see.

500. Weather456 2:19 PM EDT on October 27, 2007
I mentioned pre-90L on October 16 but most of u all wasnt on the blog at that time.


These images were uploaded and posted on 15/16 October 2007


Yep. That's it. I know that was a week when I didn't get into the blog very often.

BTW, is anybody keeping an eye on the invest in the Arabian Sea? Maybe we are having some parallel development here . . .
Looking at the shear maps, 90L only has to more about one degree west before shear drops off even more to about 10 knots
With the LLC becoming exposed its appearing less likely that we'll have a depression today. But as with all developing systems, diurnal patterns may be partly to blame for this (on top of the strong shear) and diurnal max will likely create new convection near/over the LLC.
Yes, im stil looking at the arabian sea invest....it also has a TCFA on it
??
1 degree is about 75 miles is that correct.
Please help me out here, haven't been on in couple of hours, been busy here at work. now sign on and go to see computer models and NOW they are all showing this 90L heading north????

I thought it was moving WSW for past 36 hours???????

I'm going to post this and read back and try to figure this out.

if it follows the models then S Fla will be OK , right? appears to be going NE and out to sea???

hope you all have some answers because this is last thing I expected to see from the conversations over the past 24 hours on this blog and on local weather.

gams
And like our friend 90L, 90A also has a center somewhat exposed based upon center coordinates
537. TampaSpin 6:49 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
1 degree is about 75 miles is that correct.


about 70-75 mi.
Good afternoon all. I notice that 90L has not done much to organize further since this morning. It is also apparent on satellite that the circulation is exposed to the west of the convection. If this area wants to become a depression it will need to either fire some convection right over the circulation or the whole circulation will have to relocate to the east to be under the heavy convection. Once this occurs (assuming so) then i expect a depression to be declared shortly. Also banding features are becoming more evident.
I thought a degree was sixty nautical miles ( approx 70 miles ) ?
540. extreme236 2:50 PM EDT on October 27, 2007
537. TampaSpin 6:49 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
1 degree is about 75 miles is that correct.

about 70-75 mi.

Thank you. So in 6 hours a more favorable position from shear should possibly start occuring.
90L stil remains well-organized, but no TD likely at 5pm.
1815utc navy image seems to suggest some cells of t-storms over the center, more than the 1745utc image
Correction...one cell of convection lol...
90L is takeing a blow from dry air moving SW into it.
90L is encountering some dry air and will probably have a hard time firing up a lot of convection near its center until it moves a bit farther west (or south, but it's not moving south at the moment).
547. hurricane23 6:55 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
90L is takeing a blow from dry air moving SW into it.


Yes, i just noticed a little bit of dry air, so it looks like the ULL pulled a bit in. Once that ULL gets out of the picture then dry air/shear shouldnt be any problem
525. extreme236 6:43 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Actually looking at the visible loop the LLC isnt running away from the convection, its just the convection waned over the center


I have to agree with extreme here. The LLC just lost some convection it had over it from a few hours ago. Convection seems to be starting to fire up over the center again now. This is all due to diurnal effects like some have said. Tonight will be an interesting night.
527. Drakoen 2:44 PM EDT on October 27, 2007
I'm gonna wait till tomorrow and monday to start really looking at the models.


I can see why you would say that. Though they've mostly been correct in forecasting first a SW and then a NW motion.

The motion over Haiti / W Cuba seems a bit precipitous to me. However, I'm remembering Ernesto last year, when the one outlier model (was it GFDL?), which was maligned by all, was the one that turned out to have forecasted the "correct" track. I'll hold off on definitive statements until tomorrow, even though it still looks to me like this thing is going to end up over the last pool of genuinely hot water left in the entire basin . . .

My question about the models now is, Which ones are taking into account the presence of that mid-upper low that is currently in the WCar?
Dry air is all over the place lol...

Its easy to tell on WV imagery that the ULL is pulling a little dry air in....
the ULL looks to be moving westward on WV loops at a pretty good clip, does anyone else see this?
gamma

90L is currently tracking 280 degrees which is a bit due N of W ( W being 270 ). It is not moving on a Northerly course at the moment.

Secondly, nowhere is out of the woods if a tropical system is in the Caribbean but we are a long way off from this being a significant threat to anyone. First it must become something other than " almost a depression "

The best advice I can give you is watch it like the rest of us are doing to see if it becomes a full fledged storm or hurricane and then worry about the future track
Yep and that dry air could choke the system!Needs covection over the LLC if not no development atleast in the near term.
Its going to have some obstacles today so it may take till late tonight or tomorrow before it becomes a significant system (a depression)
558. hurricane23 7:02 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Yep and that dry air could choke the system!Needs covection over the LLC if not no development atleast in the near term.


I wouldnt say "choke" the system as that dry air near it isnt as bad as the dry air in the gulf.
Thanks Kmanisland for answering my question.

I erased my repeated request so it will not take up space here.
However, the center really isnt very exposed, not quite as badly exposed as it has been
Almost every system this year has had 2000 obstacles to over come.Iam not to concerned until we get a TD or a TS going.

Its large circulation could help it but it could just go poof....
543. TampaSpin 2:52 PM EDT on October 27, 2007 Hide this comment.
540. extreme236 2:50 PM EDT on October 27, 2007
537. TampaSpin 6:49 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
1 degree is about 75 miles is that correct.

about 70-75 mi.


No doubt I'm displaying my ridgerunner ignorance but wouldn't this only hold for tropics? Distance between degrees latitude would hold constant as moved away from equator but longitude would vary?
Kman, Thank you so much for your answer to me; I guess the change of model direction caught all off guard. Yes I will be watching.


please ignore my prev post.. I will erase it so it doesn't take up space.

Thanks again Kmanisland.
AVN IR imagery shows some tiny bursts of convection near and over the center now. We will have to see if this is a trend or not.
gamma

see my post. 90L is NOT currently tracking to the NE out to sea.

The current w to wnw motion was forecasted by the models and comes as no surprise
Gamma,
Its not going NW yet. Just N. of due W.
Also a reminder: a lot of us agreed in here yesterday that Sunday was a more likely day than today to see some further development. I still think this is true. I admit I wasn't thinking about effects from the edge of the ULH, but it seemed more likely that serious organization would wait until it was out from under the heavy shear and into that low-shear area. That plus the existence of warmer waters W of 75 seemed to suggest this would be where a TD and perhaps also a TS would form.

They may call a TD tonight (I'd expect it at 8/11 rather than at 5) but I still think it's more likely to happen early tomorrow.
gamma, Fl is NOT yet safe. As you said, the models changed very quickly...remember that they may just change like that a few more times before they get a real hold on what's happening.
You are welcome
LOL Adrian the poof chances right now are slim.
I'm finding a pressure of 1002mb from a ship in the area.
But i bet you know that already
573. extreme236 15:06 EDT le 27 octobre 2007
LOL Adrian the poof chances right now are slim.

Are you kidding me this is not even a TD yet!That dry air could kill it at anytime.
I wouldn't say "poof" just yet...but the dry air will be hard to overcome and shear will only act to further slow development. I think that this could become a TD tommorow, the earliest based on what 90L currently looks like.
Thanks everyone... of course I will never turn my back on any system in our general area. LOL I'm a weather geek just like everyone here! LOL

so going W or NW is not unexpected but what I am confused about is now the models have this immediately going NE....that is what made me look twice and ask for clarification.

I guess the models are not picking up on it's current movement????
576. hurricane23 7:08 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
573. extreme236 15:06 EDT le 27 octobre 2007
LOL Adrian the poof chances right now are slim.

Are you kidding me this is not even a TD yet!That dry air could kill it at anytime.


Not a TD yet, but quite close. There isnt that much dry air effecting it. Now if we had some of that continental dry air effecting it then that would be a different story. However if it could survive 30-40 kts of shear a little dry air shouldnt kill it off
A tropical cyclone cant flurish without deep convection over its LLC.Its currently still being sheard maybe that will change tonight into tommorow.
Models flip flop all the time and no one should see them as the gospel, particularly before a system develops a well defined circulation and the upper level dynamics are clear cut for steering and intensity.

Late season systems in particular are prone to erratic movement and may track in ways completely outside all the model guidance. Weak steering, stalls, loops etc can all feature this time of year.

Also Gamma, this WNW movement has been forecast for a while now.

We all also expect it to eventually move NE also. We just don't know where it will be when that happens. That is what will determine what actually gets hit by this. Remember, once the storm is in the Caribbean, out to sea in any direction means a landfall . . .
23, you should know, a circ that vigorous just does not go "poof"......

Under worst case conditions, that circ could survive for a couple days.....
We will see what happens. I guess there is no point staring at a computer for hours waiting for every little t-storm cell to develop or die off....BBL
No No not the P-word again. Cover the women and childrens ears!
Kman,
I think its time to relax and let this thing sort its own way for the next 24 hours. Its about time for the GATORS and Dogs to play alittle football.......lol
587. 0741
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
220 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007 FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUR TRANSITION ZONE NO MAN`S LAND IS
PROBLEMATIC AS SEVERAL MODELS SHOW A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST NEAR CUBA TUESDAY AND A FURTHER INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENING OUR WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. WILL TREND IN THIS
DIRECTION. THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO ASSERT THEMSELVES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHUNT ANY
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OR KEEP IT IN THE LOWER
LATITUDES. HOW FAR WEST ANY DISTURBANCE ACTUALLY COMES BEFORE
BEGINNING TO TREK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HOW LONG IT REMAINS IN
OUR VICINITY WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AND ULTIMATE
WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR NOW, WILL ACCEPT THE 12Z GFS SCENARIO
OF THE DISTURBANCE MAKING IT TO WESTERN CUBA BEFORE BEGINNING TO
MOVE OFF NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NEVERTHELESS THERE
((IS POTENTIAL FOR A DEVILISH HALLOWEEN/ALL SAINTS DAY WITH SOME KIND))
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY. STAY TUNED!
Agreed Tampa !

I am out for now but will check in later.
Who said the "P" word.....OMG..No finger pointing....lol
We saw that naked swirl in the gulf stay intact and not go poof because of dry air a few weeks ago. However it cant flourish without that deep convection over the LLC but that could change tonight. Lots of uncertainties. However once that ULL leaves the picture the dry air and shear wont be a problem.
583. thelmores 15:11 EDT le 27 octobre 2007
23, you should know, a circ that vigorous just does not go "poof"......

Under worst case conditions, that circ could survive for a couple days.....

Understood but it would gradually spin down with time.Anyway iam out till later maybe upper level conditions change into tommorow.

I say no TD this afternoon.
I agree Adrian. No TD this afternoon. BBL
Oh, HadesGod, before I go, whats the latest on 90A?
Thanks everyone, yes, I am not disputing anyone's comments... been watching these storms for almost 30 years.

just was a little startled by the sudden shift in the models in such a short period of time. I expected this to go west into Carribean also then make that NE turn....

Ok, lunch break over and I've got some more stuff to do. will check back again in a couple of hours, the models will probably have changed again by then!

thanks everyone.
both the JTWC and IMD are saying tropical cyclone is likely.
Here is your exposed LLC!

Ok, thanks Hades.
And as you see Adrian, it isnt terribly exposed...a lot can happen in a few hours so I wont even speculate right now lol
Here you go adrian. Convection continuing to build over the center

that image was as of 18:45 showing the convective trend continuing
It's probably a sign that shear is becoming more favorable
wait till sunset then the convection will start to build again not till then
90A is already a Tropical Depression in terms of 30 knots being TD status. The JTWC doesn't issue number advisories until the sustained winds are exactly tropical cyclone force in the Indian Ocean.
Agree with 235 that the invest is really close already to a td that any buildup of convection should take it over the hump. Beautiful day here in E Cent Fl
Guys my blog has been updated. Enjpy im off untill later.
So Hades how often does the IMD update their TC page?
Looks like a single thunderstorm has developed right over the center. This could be the beginning of what could become a CDO.
95S has formed in the South Indian Ocean.
they give advisories at least three times a day

1200z
1800z
0300z
Ok, thanks for the info Hades.
you're welcome the times can be confusing since its almost 1:10am IST in India, if I am correct
LOL 95S is former 94S that never got posted to the NRL site during the power outage.
Looks like the LLC of 90L appears to be moving more WNW on the last few frames.
JFV sounds like you need the site to the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, so here it is.

LINK - Caribbean
What happened to the blog? Does anyone still say TD at 5?
latest QuickScat
looks like TD



Link
center looks to only be partially exposed now due to the deeper convection developing over the center
Current Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

Actual SSTs.

Whether it is a TD or not, just seems right now there is alot going against it.
625. Love2Cruise 7:58 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Whether it is a TD or not, just seems right now there is alot going against it.


But as the ULL keeps moving away, there wont be much at all going against it
THCP for Indian Ocean:

Sorry if already asked, but what is causing the more westward track now?
On the THCP effects on strengthening: I really can't say. Certainly the potential is there for up to a cat 3, based only on water temps and depth. However, many other factors are going to come into play with this system, so obviously we can't predict on the basis of THCP alone. It's just one factor.

OTOH, I don't think anyone expects another Wilma out of this. I'd be interested in seeing what the THCP was like for, say, Lenny ('99) or Michelle (01). Both were late storms which developed into majors.
If I read the Tampa forecast right, they said with such a strong high pressure in place they felt the storm would stay to the south.
Afternoon all....

I see the GFDL and HWRF have jumped on board and now develop 90L into a hurricane.

The only strength outlier at this point is the GFS.
2001-Tropical Storm Jerry advisory 6:

AHHHHH!!! LIFE IS GOOD WHEN THE RECON ARRIVES. THANK YOU AIR FORCE
RESERVE!!


This was by Forecast Jarvinen....seems like most forecasters have had a sense of humor lol
Yep... They are the northernmost models....

We still have the NOGAPS (which has been consistent on its track for three days now) and now the UKMET taking it more WWD.
BahaHurican Looks like the latest models suggest more of a track in your neck of the woods, I sure hope it keeps away from the Caymans, then again I don't want to hit the Bahamas, in fact I dont want it to hit anyone.You only have to survive a monster like Ivan to comprehend the power and devastation these systems can bring.
At this time, I am not buying the track solutions from the GFDL and HWRF. They both have 90L moving NNWWD basically NOW, and this system is moving WWD.

Looks like the CMC, GFDL, and HWRF all have 90L turning into a monster hurricane set to hit the Northeast US or Canada. I personally think the track will be a little more westward.
These models usually don't do well until a definite TD or TS center develops.
I believe a WWD to NWWD movement like the NOGAPS is showing is most likely after looking at the 700-850MB steering layers...
the center of 90L is no longer exposed...at least most of it is covered by convection. Possibly a sign of decreasing shear
I would agree with the westward motion, but there is a hint of movement to the north.
i just updated my blog. If you have any questions feel free to ask.
Link
What's up with that blow-up in the eastern gulf? upper level low forming?
Even though it is an experimental model, throw the FSU one in with the NOGAPS as far as track goes...
Moving slightly north of due west in my opinion. I bet if this was in the GOM it would have already been called a TD by NHC.
648. StormHype 8:22 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
What's up with that blow-up in the eastern gulf? upper level low forming?


thats mentioned in my blog.
CMC, GFDL, and HWRF vs. NOGAPS, UKMET, MM5, and GFS. Who will have the best track? Find out in 5 days.
653. 0741
i have updated my blog it have miami disussion about 90l if you south fl i be updating with miami disussion during next few days here is link Link
I think NHC will soon start advisories on 90L, probably as a TD. I base this on the track model change for the SHIPS model, which went from the BAMM at 12Z to OFCI at 18Z. OFCI is a track from the NHC human model. The SHIPS using OFCI has the storm just off Jamaica in 48 hours, and they will need some lead time to post warnings. Just my opinion.

12Z SHIPS Model

18Z SHIPS Model
Worst case scenario IMHO for this system is to move WWD and barely scrape the western tip of Cuba before moving NWD or NNEWD towards SW FL.

Charley did this. There is hardly any disruptive terrain in that part of Cuba.
Good pickup on the OFCI!
Hi gang!

What's the lastest on 90l - is it looking like it wants to become an attack blob?? I saw that the llc was exposing itself there for awhile, lot of nudity in the tropics this year - lol!!

I see the models really changed their tune this afternoon, I guess we'll have to wait and see if it develops to find out if they can get a consistent handle on it.
Another sign to look for is up on NRL if a TD is coming and no signs yet.
658. hurricane23 8:40 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Another sign to look for is up on NRL if a TD is coming and no signs yet.


They havent updated the image yet so IDK what their doing
the image should have the time 19:45 UTC but it is still 18:45
Looks like a Wednesday to Friday possible for Florida if it goes that way???
Unless they will do what they did with TD13 (Lorenzo) and wait till later on like at the TWO or so and say a TD has formed, of course thats assuming they do initiate advisories, however that was a nice find in the OPCI thing
Invest 90L!
659. extreme236 16:40 EDT le 27 octobre 2007
658. hurricane23 8:40 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Another sign to look for is up on NRL if a TD is coming and no signs yet.


They havent updated the image yet so IDK what their doing

I did not mean image wise 236.
No TD.
I know Adrian, I just didnt know if the image wasnt updating because they were preparing to show NONAME or not, but I guess they would still update the image
Although when TD 13 was initiated, that didnt happen until 6pm
669. 0741
this right link to my blog sorryLink
Im curious as to why the track was changed from BAMM to OPCI though
Just saw the lastest visable, an obvious more northerly component. Will have to see if that coninues. And man that shear is something!!!
I have also just update my blog with surface pressures and updated microwave imagery.
Link
WV loops show the ULL moving westward...once that gets out of the picture shear should improve....the TCFA said shear should become more favorable as well as the models
Pressure with 90L now at 1003mb with the NHC 18z surface map. The show a west northwest movement towards jamaica. Not buying the HWRF and the GFDL solutions.
Agreed Drak. I believe the out to sea solution is basically null in void.
675. nash28 8:54 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Agreed Drak. I believe the out to sea solution is basically null in void.


lol yea so thinks the NAM 18z run LOL.
don't discount the model discount the model run...
trying hard to cover himself. Building convection in the Northeast and Southwest Quadrants of the system.
681. melly
Just a quick comment from the south Florida girl....50 % of the posters here said" END OF HURRICANE SEASON" How quick you are to try and bury our earlier posts
Can someone explain OFCI importance?
wow 90L is such a large system
I know this will sound crazy and I'm probably crazy :-), but it almost looks like all the convection in the W caribbean & E caribbean is trying to consolidate and become just one huge system.
683. extreme236 9:01 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
wow 90L is such a large system


The diffluent flow aloft is helping to support the system.
686. melly
Sorry, I just had to say it.......I have been in Florida for 25 years, and have heard it so many times. In the land of OZ, we call it jumping the gun... It's a man thing I guess, kinda like eating the hootest wings on earth......Is Malenish a word??¿¿
melly -

Yeah - I heard those!! Could be a lot of crows being cooked up in the next few days - lol!!

Personally - I won't call an end to the season here in S. Florida until that first BIG front comes through and sweeps out the tropical air.
Yep. I made a comment on Weatherguy03's blog on how 90L is beginning to "fill in the gaps".

Folks, this one may very well survive. Those of you in FL had better have your plan and preparations ready to go.
I think we all know that if this was in the gulf this would be a TD right now but oh well, its not a threat to land for at least the next couple days
Notice the track.
691. melly
InTheCone.Lake Worth here on the Intracoastal
236- If it continues to fill those gaps, we may have the TD tonight. If not, tomorrow definately.
I agree Nash...its very close to TD status now. Dmax should bring it to TD status IMO
Yeah Drak. I would imagine the GFDL will right its ship on the movement over the next few runs.

It is usually pretty good with track.
Anybody think the LLC will clip Haiti?
Drak Im going to laugh if that track changes again on that map lol...looks like no consistancy on where the models want to take the system
697. melly
I try to keep quiet about the end of heuuricane season InTheCone. But my lip keeps bleeding from biting it. Listen to the pros..They continually keep say.November 30th as the end.Not October 27th
melly -

PBG - near the hospital. Have 2 teenage boys - nice to have an er handy - lol!!!
694. nash28 9:07 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Yeah Drak. I would imagine the GFDL will right its ship on the movement over the next few runs.

It is usually pretty good with track

yea the GFDL is just getting a bite to eat lol. With the power house HWRF lol.
GFDL has had a few mess-ups with the track this year, such as its persistancy to send Dean to the gulf coast
BAMM and BAMD take the system into Cuba, however the BAMS takes it over Jamaica on a mainly WNW path
702. melly
Been to the Tiki Grill at the Riviera Beach marina?? (yes, this is weather related)
ROFLMAO Drak!!!!!

Nice way to say out to lunch!
Iam all ready here with my sony cam and anemometer.Iam on vaca till nov6.
I am not inclined to go with the GFDL and HWRF solutions as I believe they show a too abrupt change in motion.
Well, since I am reenlisting in the military, Navy Reserve to be exact, I have to go with the NOGAPS!!!

:-)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 272112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION
IN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CURACAO. THE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
Hey Adrian!!!! How goes it my friend?

Something tells me we will be chatting on the phone in the next few days...
Right now I will just go with the good 'ol CLP5 lol
710. melly
Nash.Do you have to do basic training again???
90L needs to cover himself and stay covered then we have TD 16.
Yep. Been out for 12 years.
708. nash28 17:13 EDT le 27 octobre 2007
Hey Adrian!!!! How goes it my friend?

Something tells me we will be chatting on the phone in the next few days...

Hey bro whats going on???

You could give me a call anytime!My b-day is tommrorow turning the big 30.
I imagine that with the fairly low pressure, it wouldnt take much for 90L to become a tropical storm
715. melly
My ex told me stories about scrubbing the floors in the barracks with toothbrushes, and being harrased 24 hours a day. Nash
Like I said before if this was in the gulf it would already have been called a TD or minimal TS.Very Sad and some wonder why? oh well I'll just leave it at that.Enough said.
melly -

No, I haven't been there. Single dad doing the Mr. Mom routine for the last 7 yrs. since the boys mom died. I don't get out much, but that's okay, I love my boys and they are getting ready to leave the roost.

In imHo - in the last few visible images the llc appears to be heading mostly west - on topic - lol!!!
Looks like convection is now on the NE Quad. East and southwest convection have gone down some.
Nash...I think you reenlisted Navy because you wanted to be like StormW!! jk ;-))
720. melly
I here yeah InTheCone.........single myself............I have to say it ...Freekin' men.......LOL
right extreme236. Noel could easily form.
718. Love2Cruise 9:18 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Looks like convection is now on the NE Quad. East and southwest convection have gone down some.


that is due to dmin...still a good amount of convection in the east and SW
723. melly
InTheCone.......So sorry.........I didn't read the whole post....I'm sorry
Easy - we're not ALL bad - lol!
once dmin is over convection should start to build again and that may be what 90L needs to become a TD
726. melly
I must be sitting on the BAD side of the table
No problem melly!!

dmax should be interesting!!
Extreme236, what do think about all that dry air? It doesn't really look like that is going to let up.
728. Love2Cruise 9:22 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Extreme236, what do think about all that dry air? It doesn't really look like that is going to let up.


Once again as I said earlier, that dry air is fairly weak and only be pulled in because of the ULL, which is moving west and should eventually move out of the area
I think the models have it right if 90L reaches a Cat 1 then the GFDL and HWRF are correct and if 90L stays weak like the follow the UKM/ NoGaps path
more to the west before recurves...
But Im not entirely sure what will entirely happen with the enviroment Love2Cruise....its still uncertain but it appears likely Noel will form
Which direction will the ULL go?
The Dry Air is letting up. last few frames of the water vapor imagery with the floater on 90L show that. You can see the building of the thunderstorm north of the center as the upper level low moves to the west. The convection is able to catch up with the circulation center as the upper level low moves out. Look at the moisture transport.
The ULL looks to be moving west, however faster than 90L is moving
Its still got that dry in front of it which most likely the reason convection is limited near the LLC.
737. JFV 9:25 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Extreme sir your thoughts on the arupt model track changes this afternoon with 90L. Thanks in advance


Well it appears that after its WNW jog earlier, the last few visible frames of the loop show that a westward motion has resumed. However I would not rule out a WNW motion at any point in time. As the NHC said, a West or WNW motion is possible.
Right now JFV its really too early though to say if the models are correct though
Covering up.. probably the last good visible image.
If we see some further consistancy, then I would be more inclined to believe the abrupt change, however right now the BAMS model may have a good solution IMO
I thought I saw some westward motion as well, but in that visible if you watch only the center, I swear the center moves NW and the rotation around it has some westward movement. Maybe I have just been looking at the screen to long!!!
Center still looks only partially exposed right now due to some dry air and some shear
GFS 18z run is coming out. We will see if it can show a decent track.
I am amazed by all of the convection to the east side of this system. If it gets all of that involved it's going to be big!!
Hi again

Back for a few minutes. 90L has improved in organization over the last 4 hours or so. Deep convection is very close to the COC now and the track seems to be just a shade N of due W or 275 to 280 degrees.

This would take 90L S of Jamaica IMO and into an increasingly favourable environment. Tonight I expect further improvement in the overall structure with classification as a TD possibly by the 5 am advisory tomorrow.

I hope the quikscat pass does not miss it tonight as this would give a lot of much needed info on the system in the absence of recon.
Has anyone ever seen the OFCI track on the model plots without advisories being issued?

CSU Model Plot


TROPICAL DEPRESSION "KABAYAN" has 10 min sustained winds, measured by Typhoon2000, of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is moving slowly west at 1 knot.
thanks for the update Hades! I thought the next name on the list was Yemyjin (or however its spelled)
So one would really one this storm to intensify now so it would turn North. Would this be correct.
oh sorry I posted the wrong image..
90L now leaving an area of 20 to 30 knot shear and will be within 10 to 20 knots in a few hrs. This should help the convection consolidate over the COC by around midnight tonight

Oh your talking about 95W near the Phillipines....oh I guess the PAGASA named it?
Nice graphic k-man!!

However, I'm on my laptop an that baby has me streeeeeeeched!!

Can you shrink it??? Thankx!

Was in the Cayman's this summer, lovely place you have there!!

Maybe the OPCI track is on there because there expecting it to form shortly? IDK...thats interesting
PAGASA hasn't officially named it yet but looks likely by the image.
Looking again at the model output, I still do not understand what the GFDL and HWRF are thinking....

InTheCone

That graphic is 500x347, much smaller than the usual 640x480

It should not be stretching the blog for you

And yes, it is wonderful here ( until the Cat 5's come knocking LOL )
I will be back in a bit...
759. nash28 5:47 PM EDT on October 27, 2007
With my birthday being on Halloween, this would be the ultimate screw you from Momma Nature! She ruined my wife's birthday on September 26, 2004.

Your b-day is wednesday!Mine is tommorow.Turning 30.
765. o311
anybody got the intensity forecast for 90L
look at the extrap on the spaghetti model.... odd that none of the models would show the initial extrap motion.....

wouldnt trust any model at this point, but I do believe we will have a TD tomorrow.....
Congrats Adrian! I will be 34.
Is that better ITC ??
Kman it also stretched it out for me to.
Interesting K-man, must be me then???mOld computer...

Yeah - I saw what Ivan did to you guys, but I must say that you all have recovered very nicely!! It must have been terrible at the time!!
Great thanks Kman!
WOW, so many of the models are showing an early northward turn..if it is going to follow over half of those models it better start making a serious NW turn pretty soon. so it can then do the NE thing. LOL
KAC with their forecast track.
H23

It should be fixed now. For some reason since the new blog format every image I post shows on my computer as 500x347 yet it stretches the blog for you guys unless it is sized.

Any idea why that is ?
775. JFV 5:51 PM EDT on October 27, 2007
Does anyone have the 24 to 48 hour wind sheer map for the central and western carib?

Knock yourself out...
Much better - Thanx!!
I dont know my friend but i ususally try to use imagshack or postimage.org for my stuff when its to large.
There are some nasty supercell thunderstorms now on the northeast quadrant.
so far the GFS 18z has it hiting jamaica then just south of Cuba...
Convection closing in on the COC from all sides now. Watch out after sundown

Looks like 18Z GFS pulls it North too!!! What are we not seeing?
System is really beginning to come together.

The 18z GFS doesn't have it going north just WNW like its doing now...
Yes KMAN a huge blowup is what iam expecting this evening.
Drak

I would go with that track based upon current movement but if it becomes vertically stacked it could feel a poleward pull sooner than that.

Just a wait and see game for now
18Z GFS doesnt pull 90L to the north much, it takes it over jamaica and toward western cuba...similiar to nogaps
I have a strong gut feeling that Florida may get more than they bargained for from 90L when it will become Hurricane Noel. With all the showers and storms associated with this feature, there may be widespread flooding if this does hit Florida.
If 90L gets developed fairly quickly then a special statement might be issued
Right now though this system is very large and the rainfall alone, even if this doesnt become a very significant system (such as a cane) its going to be a deadly storm with just the rain alone. However current guidence suggest a hurricane out of this and I think it will be hard for the NHC to not forecast a hurricane if the guidence remains this way
Can you give me a link to the GFS model that you are looking at Drak? Thanks.
Kman- Yes if it becomes vertically stacked sooner, it could move more poleward, but I do not see a strong NWD move until it is S of Cuba. Maybe even near the western tip.

I am telling you, I have looked at the steering map until I am blue in the face and what I am seeing is something very similar to Charley in terms of early track.

Now, latter track and strength, too early to tell.
K man, I am on a lap top and it did not stretch mine... however I have never had that happen.
798. JLPR
i see we got the any change in organization would result in the formation of a td 90l very close to td status
wheres Taz he killed 90l yesterday
lol
Nash

I just looked at steering too and the low to mid level steering seems to suggest W to WNW for a while. Is that what you are seeing ?
where is Taz today? I haven't seen him on here all day and been doing some lurking...

something must be wrong.
I just got done looking at the steering at the low and mid levels and I cant seem to imagine what the GFDL and HWRF are thinking right now....if anything it would look to go farther south rather than north right now.
ICM

I don't know what it is. Just a quirk since the blog format changed. As long as I remember to size it's ok but if I forget it does not stretch my screen !!

Weird
steering at all the layers would suggest a continuation of 90L's current westward movement.
sun setting. Looking forward to tracking the system with RAMSDIS imagery tonight.

The overall steering isnt very strong either and that is why I think the guidence suggest a hurricane.
808. JLPR
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Lots of rain falling in PR i guess associated to 90l
RAMSDIS has to have the best visible satellite imagery at night than anything else lol
Yes Kman. That is what I am seeing, which is why the 12z runs of the GFDL, HWRF and BAMD are out to lunch to me....

Be back in a few guys... Beer run.
Extreme

I agree based upon current steering
Well you have to know that if some of the models are agreeing with the CMC on track you kind of have to wonder if there out to lunch lol...CMC isnt always wrong but most of the time. I wouldnt imagine though the CMC was good in 2005 with all those disturbances that formed im sure the CMC had them all forming
809. extreme236 10:07 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
RAMSDIS has to have the best visible satellite imagery at night than anything else lol

yes lol. Better than night visible (shortwave) at the SSD. Updates quick too!
751. extreme236 9:41 PM GMT on October 27, 2007

thanks for the update Hades! I thought the next name on the list was Yemyjin (or however its spelled)

---
Its either Yemyin or Sidr depending if the India Meteorological Department did upgraded a previous cyclone that hit the Pakistan earlier this year.

A monthly report named DEEP DEPRESSION BOB 03-2007 (Tropical Cyclone 03B) as Cyclonic Storm Yemyin.
JPLR -

I was just wondering how PR was doing - it looks to me like they have been getting tremendous rainfall all day.

Hope everyone is safe, I saw a couple of folks were killed in a mudslide :(
From what iam seeing shear has begun to fall off already and we could very well see this system begin to really flare up into this evening.
I am heading outside to catch the last of the day in my back yard, feed my ducks, grab a glass of cold Chardonnay etc LOL

You gotta just love the tropics !

BBL
Very intense thunderstorms flareing up very close to the LLC now.You can see some gray in there.
Sorry - JLPR - mis-typed!!
820. JLPR
rainy here in PR amounts have reached the 6-7 in some places
yes thats true InTheCone mudslides killed two brothers i believe tragic event
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Sitting here drinking a few Amstel light beer and wondering what 90L has up his sleeve (noel) I'm assuming.
New Blog guys.
just go to the blog lol. Click his name its the first blog.
18Z GFS takes it east of Florida Thursday.
I said Jeff Masters has a new blog..