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Disturbance 90L brings heavy rain to Puerto Rico; major pollution in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:05 PM GMT on October 25, 2007

A surface low pressure system (90L) just east of Puerto Rico is moving to the west at 5-10 mph. This low is entangled with an upper-level low pressure system that is bringing about 30 knots of wind shear, so no development is likely today. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows bands of heavy rain hitting the islands and surrounding waters, but these bands are not well-organized. Satellite loops show most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is to the northeast of the low's center of circulation, and high wind shear is keeping this thunderstorm activity disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 90L.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 90L. Image credit: NOAA.

The surface low is expected to separate from the upper level low tonight and move west-southwest or southwest across Puerto Rico, bringing the threat of heavy rain and flooding to the island. Recent rains have left large areas of interior and western Puerto Rico at or near saturation, and mudslides were reported yesterday in Utuado. Flooding problems and mudslides are likely across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Friday and Saturday, and this is shaping up to be the most significant rain event of the fall wet season thus far for Puerto Rico.

On Friday and Saturday, 90L will move westward along or just south of Hispaniola, bringing heavy rain, flash flooding, and possible mudslides to that island. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict that wind shear will drop to 10-20 knots by Friday night, which may allow some slow development of the disturbance if the center remains over water. The GFS model keeps wind shear 20-30 knots through the period, and does not develop 90L. By Saturday, the storm will near Jamaica, and the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict a tropical depression will form by Sunday. Steering currents grow weak on Monday, and the storm could stall out for many days in the Western Caribbean, in an area of low wind shear and high heat content waters. This may allow the system to intensify into a hurricane. The eventual fate of this system is highly uncertain, since steering currents will be so weak. Those of you planning to travel to the Western Caribbean next week should keep a close watch on this system. NHC has not scheduled any flights into 90L yet.

It is possible that wind shear and passage over the islands will sufficiently disrupt this disturbance so that it does not develop. However, surface pressures have fallen 2-3 mb over most of the Western Caribbean the past two days, and there is a good chance that a new area of disturbed weather will develop. One such disturbance formed yesterday south of Haiti, but has since dissipated. Unsettled rainy weather can be expected to affect much of the Western Caribbean over the coming week.

California's fires
Surface maps show that the high pressure system that brought this week's strong Santa Ana winds to Southern California has now moved east and is over Colorado. The Santa Ana winds have ceased over California, and only light winds with afternoon sea breezes are expected today and for the next seven days. No precipitation is expected for at least the next week. The combination of light winds and lack of rain will make for a serious air pollution hazard in the region, until the fires are extinguished. There is still plenty of smoke over the ocean waters (Figure 2) that will get blown back over land by afternoon sea breezes over the next week.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image at 1:45 pm PDT Wednesday October 24, showing a huge area of smoke over the Pacific Ocean. Some of this smoke is being blown northward (top of image), and is expected to move over northern California and northern Nevada over next two days. This northward-moving smoke is being lifted by the flow around an approaching low pressure system, and is not expected to affect air quality near the surface. However, the smoke just offshore San Diego and Los Angeles will remain near the surface, and some of it will be pushed back over land by afternoon sea breezes. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters
October moon
October moon
with all the smoke in the air the moon last night was looking like holloween.

Air and Water Pollution Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Looks to be consolidating...

Looks like a track into the central Caribbean then possibly into the northern Caribbean.
Indeed Cane -

Considering the current shear and the way it is growing consolidated convection on the latest loops, plus how bullish the NHC was at 5:30, well it does look to have good chance at further development. Especially in the w. carib. Very interesting.....
WTPQ20 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0720 FAXAI (0720) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 23.0N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
Nice to know you agree, If this trend keeps up we will most definitly have a depression tomorrow, possibly as early as 5 AM.
Hades - someone posted a pic. of that one earlier. It was looking good then - I'm glad I don't live in the WPAC!!! They get some real MONSTERS!!
You can see the circulation on here. It needs to get away from that upper level low associated with an upper level trough. Its heading in the right direction...needs to get there fast though.

Unless 90L passes well S of Hispaniola the mountains there will seriously disrupt a developing circulation. A close pass will therefore likely result in a weak system until the W Caribbean and a pass 100 miles or further S of the coast would give it a chance of being much stronger by the time it reaches near to Jamaica.

Just a guessing game for now IMO
Drak -

U think it will get away in time?
That monster ULL to its north is actually providing ventilation for 90L....
wow that low pressure looks very impresive right now. Most of us at Puerto Rico doesnt even know that that much of rain is coming. Lets see what heppens tomorrow. at least im going to have a good sleep with this rain
513. MrSea
i say 90 percent chance 90L will NOT develop
510. InTheCone 1:28 AM GMT on October 26, 2007
Drak -


I know im not Drak, But basically the only thing that Upper Level Low is doing to affect 90L is producing the moderate to high shear over 90L. The longer 90L hangs around the ULL the longer the shear will remain strong and therefore result in not much development. In my opinion it will be detached from that ULL soon and development will begin to take place.
Leeward Islands Under 91L (added graphic effects will posted shortly)



Two Maritime Ships near 94W

A8CH8 - NNE at 25 mph
1005 mb
Mostly Cloudy

VNVZ - ESE at 24 mph
1012.1 mb
Haze

There are two ULLs at work. One is absolutely huge and off to the NE. The other is smaller and off to the NW. The NW ULL is however digging to the S in the path of 90L and could pose a significant obstacle to further development

The WV loop tells the tale

Link
511. hurricane23 9:30 PM AST on October 25, 2007 Hide this comment.
That monster ULL to its north is actually providing ventilation for 90L..


That upper low actually has been helping 90L even before it was an invest.
Ok all well Im heading to bed...after looking over some things it seems the chances for development look to be around 50/50 (rough estimate, however IMO they may be a bit higher in favor for development, but do be a bit conservative I will go with 50/50)
Thanks Cane - I agree.

raggpr - from what I understand, u folks are WET!!! Tell the folks in flood/slide areas to keep a close listen to their locals for info.

Is there immenent danger of mudslides coming??
Good night extreme, Im turning in also, Good night all!
Rainy night

Link
And before I go, the 00Z shear map shows that once 90L passes PR (assuming it does so and moves on the southern part) then shear drastically decreases
well "InTheCone" I think that yes we are at high risk of mudslide on the mountains. But the biggest trouble might be flooding in urban areas. Local news were advertising a good chance of rain for tomorrow but looking at the radar it looks like we will have more rain than what they were expecting
510. InTheCone 1:28 AM GMT on October 26, 2007
Drak -

U think it will get away in time?


a good chance it will. There is also another upper level low in the Caribbean which probably won't affect the system as the upper level low moves to the ENE or NE.
456 -

U live in the islands - I was very concerned about raggr's comment that some rain was coming their way and was not too much of a worry.

From my HUMBLE observations of 90l, it looks like they could get a soaking!!

Do you think they should be concerned about flooding/mudslides??
Wow this is really going to be an interesting upcoming week. With low shear and high water temps in the Carribean, this looks to have the conditions for a major hurricane in the making, just my opinion. Will this take advantage of those conditions or will it die out like most of the other invests that showed promise this season? I do have to admit, you have to really give it to StormW as he has stated all season long that things should really heat up towards the end of the season. Anyone agree?
I can tell im between 50 and 75 miles from were the center of circulation is. Right know the wind is light, not even reaching 15 mph
What is the heck is the NHC waiting for? 90L is a TD my friends. Sheared or not, that's a TD.
I'm glad rggpr that they are notifying folks, we've had enough devastation. Be Safe!!

Thanks Drak!
There is also some sinking air west of the circulation center which is helping to keep thunderstorms from the west side of the system.
I agree with 90L consolidating and with its well defined structure, it looks to me like a TD. It has definitly shown persistance as well.
I can tell im between 50 and 75 miles from were the center of circulation is. Right know the wind is light, not even reaching 15 mph


That's because you are on the weak side of a small, disorganised, sheared system. If it passes you and you wind up on the E side that will change
Do you think they should be concerned about flooding/mudslides??

Yes...100% concern. Of all the flooding events that occur in my island almost all occurred in October and November which are the two wettest months and the culprits are tropical waves and tropical disturbances like 90L. Flooding will most likely occur as 90L moves west, we had a very heavy downpour just ended minutes ago.

__________________________________________

I graphic i made:

A reminder to those of you who have started to bicker

Admin will not hesitate to issue a 24 hr ban to discourage anti social behaviour

Lighten up guys
kmanislander you are right, i might report tomorrow how wind was here. but still right know is a little breaze coming from the Northeast higher than normal
My latest blog entry about 90L and...

Everything I have to say about it is there...
raggpr

I assume the " pr" in your handle means Puerto Rico. If so you have several hours before the worst of the weather ( which is on the E side of 90L ) impacts you. However, the rain will come before the wind as is usually the case with a sheared system
kmanislander. Ok i understand and yes pr comes from Puerto Rico
WOW! Invest 90L starting to look more impressive with each passing image. Convection starting to consolidate around the center and has begun to move WSW. TD 16 tomorrow in my opinion.

Referring to the questions of the monster ULL, the ULL is helping ventilate the system as the wind shear is not associated with the ULL. But, I agree it needs to move away from it since it will likely start to come closer.

This will be an interesting system to watch. Maybe the last for 2007.
Thanks 456 -

I worry about the people who don't have access to info. such as we have here. Especially when it could be a really big event.

I don't think PR will get much wind, but the potential for tremendous rainfall is looking, well, BIG. You agree????
Long range radar. The low may skirt or slip south Puerto Rico.
90L
25 Knots
1005 mb

I don't think PR will get much wind, but the potential for tremendous rainfall is looking, well, BIG. You agree????

Yeah..not really a wind event in the near term good rainfall

Satellite Estimated Rainfall Rate



Well quikscat has missed 90L as expected but there is a well defined surface trough of low pressure stretching all the way from the NW Caribbean to just N of Panama.

This will keep pressures low in the area for now
Seems strange to be looking at tropical anything a few days before Halloween.

Especially since the whole month was so quiet.

Shortwave night visible imagery shows a definite WSW motion of the system. The system appears to have a titled circulation with the mid level center slightly to the west of the low level center.
hey zoo, what's up?
Drak

I would have expected the mid level center to be off to the NE of the surface low given the extent to which the system is sheared
Im looking at the news right know and they are advertising know that it can be a dangerous event. I think most people should know right know. but this event have already been a deadly one because two men died this afternoon after a car accident caused by a mudslide.
Hmm 456 -

0.2 not too bad - mountains could make a problem?? Hopefully not!
i meant east lol. I'm staring at imagery and its late here. I don't function well. Drak is subject to errors LMAO.
Hi Tigger - not much - been in and out of the rain tonight. We had beautiful weather this morning - all the way down to 70! lol
Yeah Drak. - Nice to know you're human like the rest of us - lol!!! You're work is GREAT!
Thanx!
Drak

I know the feeling LOL

But here is another curve ball for you ( and for me )

The 850 mb vorticity graphic shows the strongest turning to the N of PR !!

Go figure
I'm thinking this report needs quality fix

GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV) False Color Image
Atlantic Basin 1:45 UTC

Link



Not quite sure what to make of this given the IR image

yea i noticed that Kman. With all this shear is hard to depict a decent well defined circulation center.
JFV - don't feed the trolls or you will get banned too.
MRSEA LET IT GO ,you are entiteled to your opion ,but some times the more expericed here take a off the cuff prediction kinda hard ,back it up with your reasons they will respect you a lot more
573. MrSea
So now that you know about me, please call me immature and tell me to leave again. Whoever starts to bicker with someone else on this site is the immature one. Administration, if you are reading, please note that I am not the bickerer but the bickeree just trying to defend himself from a guy who apparently cant pick on someone his own size. Please dont ban me!!
Guys, please try to show some compassion. MrSea is 14 and apparently CaneAddicts attack
on him was uncalled for. MrSea is defending himself. Let's not bully people
on here.

It is shameful the way a 14 year old
is treated on here. Very Shameful.
Hey Pat

My first chance to welcome you back

What do you make of the 850 mb placement of vorticity given the surface obs ?
One would not expect the 850 mb center to be N of PR with 90L would you ?
thanks Pat how have you been feeling ?
Thanks Pat -

Glad you're back!!
actually i think the Cimss might be right on the money. Zoom in on the 850mb the strongest region of vorticity maximum in the deep red is just ENE to NE of Puerto Rico. Matches with the night time visible imagery.
560. InTheCone 10:07 PM AST on October 25, 2007 Hide this comment.
Hmm 456 -

0.2 not too bad - mountains could make a problem?? Hopefully not!


That image is an instant measure so 0.2 inches an hr was at one moment in time. Alot more can fall and accumulate over time since those are only satellite estimates and not actual obs.
580. MrSea
Now that thats oover with, I will have to admit that there is a nice flareup of convection, but due to a hostile environment (much like this chat tonight) I do not think it will develop. I will go now. Hopefully none of this will be mentioned tomorrow I liked it for the past 3 months when it was nice weather talk.
Im Okay. Thanx,..
Relaxing and watching that Lil Invest. Late October and Early November still can bite one good. Will be one to watch maybe.
Juan in 85 was a slow beginner.But a strong finisher too.

Wiki on Juan 1985 Link

583. JLPR


OMG i think i will rent a boat
look the heavy convection is moving directly to m e
mrsea with that gpa of yours and tops in your class a have a daughter i would like to introduce you to LOL
585. MrSea
THANK YOU TROPICSDUDE you're my new best friend!! Good night to all.
Anways, i'm out for the night. Hopefully things will be cleared up tomorrow if there is still something there.
evenin yall.
TD Folks!
No problem MrSea...I am 19 and have interests
in psychology. In my psychology readings I have learned about treatment of people, including children. For these reasons I am against bullying.
590. MrSea
Thank you Justcoasting too its good to know that there are some compassionate people on tonight
Gnite Drak

I suspect something will be there tomorrow.
I do think this will likely become a tropical
depression perhaps briefly due to the proximity
of the convection to the center of the system.

But shear will also be a factor based on the
ULL to the NE...so this is a wait and see situation.
Ya'll think it's smokey now...



000
ABNT20 KNHC 260217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH...IS CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES
REMAIN LOW IN THE AREA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW FOR A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. REGARDLESS OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA
.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI
how is every body? Anything working out there? Fires are slowing down. Are all of our bloggers well? Know we have a few out in Arnold land.
90L




598. MrSea
So Im guessing Addict just made his comment and ran off I dont see him...is he one of the better forecasters on this site? (I am just curious, I am not ever going to mention this to him or anyone after tonight, just curious)
TCW

No TD as yet according to the TWO @ 10:30
Also, still an invest on the Navy site
All that Lingering smoke offshore is going to sweep back in with that onshore flow Skyepony.
BAd atmosphere for lungs.
Heavy rains here in St Barths
456 -

After looking at above sat. image - I just hope all are warned. People in US think that we are soooo unprotected by our gov. I've been to the islands and have seen that there are folks there who don't get ANY thing!! God Bless them and I hope they are warned, water is much worse than wind. Just comes down for hours...days....NOT good!
MrSea

Sometimes its best to leave well enough alone
Quikscat missed the area so I wouldn't expect any upgrades till morning's visible.
606. MrSea
603. kmanislander 2:31 AM GMT on October 26, 2007
MrSea

Sometimes its best to leave well enough alone

What?
yung uns, your welcome here no one says your not. but post info as it pertains to tropics. Stating its not gonna develop or its a dead storm or 10% chance of development etc... If you have that opinion then simply back it up with your research and we can debate it. Thats all the others have said. Age is irrelevent here. Im old and know little about the tropics but I enjoy those on here that do.
Looking at the air quality forcast the fires look like they'll be making their fair share too.
609. MrSea
OK I know what you mean ... last comment of mine was immature... I deleated it... officially dropped thank you guys who support me
20W Faxai

this is a crazy season. Im on standby for deployment to California once the fires are out and now here come a potential hurricane!! And i am one of the few that has been in a hurricane this year and I live in Oklahoma!!!
Oh boy

What I mean is why continue to stir the pot when others have said it's over ?

RARE what kind of work do you do ?
Ah, back to weather blogging LOL
615. MrSea
612. kmanislander 2:38 AM GMT on October 26, 2007
Oh boy

What I mean is why continue to stir the pot when others have said it's over ?

LOL ok ok its over its over
616. MrSea
Lol kmanislander that picture goes great with your comments...you look lake a peaceful person
617. MrSea
wx quetstion...is the center of circulation over water or one of those islands, and is the convection over the COC yet?
Just coasting, I own an Environmental services and real property apprasal firm here in Oklahoma. We do catastrophe work when were deployed.
we finnaly got a beautiful day here in southwest florida it hardly made 80
Well living here in the islands does promote a certain sense of well being ( until the Cat 5s come along then you will see a much different picture indeed LOL )
621. JLPR
is that swirl just offshore PR the circulation?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 260217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH...IS CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES
REMAIN LOW IN THE AREA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW FOR A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. REGARDLESS OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI


its fall here and im loving it not looking forward to going to California or Florida. I freeze so much better than I sweat!!
Rare I do the same thing with my company here in sw Florida we go from Florida to Texas.We are new home builders in the off season for more private type clients
625. MrSea
hopefully I didnt get myself onto too many peoples ignore list lol
its been a rough few years for the cat adjuster guys. Luckily Im ok here. But there are alot of companys out of business. If a big storm hits its gonna be interesteing to see what caliber of adjusters show up..
But to answer you two questions, those islands are so small to the E of PR that 90L can be both over water AND over islands at the same time. They are too small to impede its development and as far as a developing tropical system is concerned it might as well be considered to be essentially over water.

Regarding the COC, it is much further within the deep convection now than it was earlier this morning or to put it another way it is not a badly sheared tonight as this morning. BUT, it is still assymetrical with most of the convection off to the E side of the COC
WSW movement...

That's the key.. will it get into the carib. Rain for PR., and others.

Hmmmmm....
630. MrSea
wow Skyepony that crearly shows the COC lol
Probably will be a whole new bunch of faces .We only work as a commercial tarping company .Such as hospitals during Katrina
Looks better with the clouds. This only lasts til it updates but looks like the coc at the surface is west of the convection~ just south of the little islands just east of PR.
633. MrSea
I knew the COC would be over both water and land but I was concerned about orographic lift on the islands if they had mountains which may make the tstms look stronger now than they would be when the storm is over water
we clear environmental risk for insurance companys and commercial entitys. We also have adjusters that run cat claims.
635. MrSea

Caution the colors can lead to a false impression of intensity
Rare that sounds like very interesting work ,Where you in Punta Gorda after Charlie ?
Orographic lift will probably come into play over a larger land mass such as PR and lead to potential significant flooding
What is the name of the little island the COC is 1/2 over?
Night time cooling is also aiding in the blow up of the thunderstorms. The diurnal max is still to come during the early morning hours after midnight
we worked Katrina and Wilma in 2005 that was the first hurricanes we worked
641. MrSea
ok now I have a great idea of where the COC is in relationship to the convection...its pretty far SW of it
Caution the colors can lead to a false impression of intensity

What colors? I don't see anything. >_>
643. MrSea
Yes I knew about diurnal max/min thank you for the help so far
644. JLPR
wow thats right
90l should be passing through PR by dimax thats bad
645. MrSea
lol there you go Korithe Man
well its late here and I have some deadlines tomorrow. we shall see whats around in the morning. JLPR and Kman you guys stay safe tonight!
Thanks, MrSea.

JLPR, yes not only is that bad, but this system has shown that it can maintain itself even during the diurnal minimum.
648. MrSea
good night Rare !
650. JLPR
will do
rareaire
Radar Loop of Puerto Rico..Not much on the Scope overall.The Invest is Still right loaded. Link

Max winds are 32knts on the doppler too.
NEXRAD Radar
San Juan Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI
Link
Looks like a last gasp for the '07 hurricane season...Cool nights and mornings in east Central Florida for several weeks now.
(I love the picture of the California moon...so sorry for the folks there.)
Hey everyone. anything interesting going on in the tropics?
654. JLPR
pressure at 1007mb here coming close
-------
Luiz Munoz International Airport
Lat: 18.43 N Lon: 66 W Elev: 9 ft
Last Update on Oct 25, 10:56 pm AST

Light Rain

79°F
(26°C)
Humidity: 85 %
Wind Speed: NE 13 G 26 MPH
Barometer: 29.77" (1007.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 74°F (23°C)
Heat Index: 83°F (28°C)
Visibility: 8.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
655. MrSea
so we got a giant ULL to the northeast that is shearing/ventilating the north and east part of 90L....then we have semi-dry air to the west of 90L (seen by the advancing outflow boundary that I saw earlier)...we have a ULL in the Western Carib...interesting stuff....I gotta go now good night
Well, I have to report bad news. 2 men died today and 2 more suffer injuries in Aibonito PR when giant rocks and mudslide hit a car. At this moment in Carolina PR where I live the conditions are breezy with light rain showers.
657. JLPR
according to Radar the center of 90l is between Vieques,PR and St.Croix
658. JLPR
WeatherFanPR condition are equal here
you live in the same area lol
If I am reading the loop correctly the low level center is completely exposed and diving to the SW just between the E tip of PR and the heavy convection

Link
Well 10:20 here so off to bed for me

catch up with you all tomorrow
good night
661. JLPR
goodnight kman
Hey kman what do you think of 90L as of tonight Thank you in advance for your help
sorry everyone but I don't see 90L developing at all I see it going poof and then thats it for the rest of the tropical season.
SkyeponY, just west of Anegada of the BVI....was a new one for me. Sorry it took so long to find and post. lol
Hi Miami

You caught me on the way out LOL

90L has some obstacles to overcome in the short term. Shear and proximity to land.

If shear relaxes enough to allow the system to become vertically stacked AND it does not run aground on PR and Hispaniola then we may well see this become a TD and a storm. It is too soon to speculate on intensity as this will depend on numerous as yet undetermined factors.

Steering is forecast to be weak in the West/Central Caribbean and if it hangs around for several days in favourable conditions it could become a lot stronger than I currently expect.

Shear has not stayed low for long this season other than when Dean and Felix came by and I do not believe this pattern will change now.

This one could be a S Fla system though so keep an eye on it. A hurricane is certainly not out of the question
ty we have to take this invest seriously
667. BtnTx

607. rareaire 9:33 PM CDT on October 25, 2007
yung uns, your welcome here no one says your not. but post info as it pertains to tropics. Stating its not gonna develop or its a dead storm or 10% chance of development etc... If you have that opinion then simply back it up with your research and we can debate it. Thats all the others have said. Age is irrelevent here. Im old and know little about the tropics but I enjoy those on here that do.


No "intuition" or "gut feel" allowed here!
663. amazinwxman 8:25 PM PDT on October 25, 2007
sorry everyone but I don't see 90L developing at all I see it going poof and then thats it for the rest of the tropical season

i 2nd that


RIP 90L RIP 90L RIP 90L do i have to keep saying it LOL
Taz why do you think 90L will go poof it has a lot of model support inmo
BtnTx, Good Post.........
671. BtnTx
Thanks pottery2 and it is good to see Taz has not burned up yet!
Talk about a short-lived storm:


1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 23.0N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.2N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 31.1N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL


Then, it is the year of short-lived storms, and it is not just an Atlantic thing, it has affected the entire Northern Hemisphere (maybe southern as well), which is currently the second least active season on record, which is saying a lot when you are talking about not just one basin but all of them; I put up a blog on this.
666. Miamiweather 8:38 PM PDT on October 25, 2007
ty we have to take this invest seriously


sure we do NOT
669. Miamiweather 8:44 PM PDT on October 25, 2007
Taz why do you think 90L will go poof it has a lot of model support inmo


this be come there is a lot of models that support 90L dos not mean it will be come a TD or TS 90L is RIP

True, BtnTx.
How are the fires around you today, Taz ??
675. pottery2 8:54 PM PDT on October 25, 2007
True, BtnTx.
How are the fires around you today, Taz ??


the fire are down in S ca but the good news is that they are being put out one by one
That is good news Taz.
678. BtnTx
It is good to hear you are safe Taz. My brother-in-law has been deployed by the USArmy to help out down there. I hope fires get distinguished soon!
Good to hear that, TAZ. And, also very glad the fires are getting put out!
680. JRRP
I THINK 90L WILL BE TD BY 5 PM TOMORROW OR MAY BE BEFORE
The coc of 90L is moving quickly sw and part of it is touching the eastearn tip of Puerto Rico. In Carolina PR the conditions are very breezy with stronger gusts and light rain. But again the coc of 90L is in its closest point from PR and moving fast to the sw. Also looks like the heaviest rainfall will be passing just south of PR.
That is good news Taz.
683. BtnTx
Fact, not opinion, I'm out for tonight, and the weather here in Baytown is clear and cool.
680. JRRP 9:14 PM PDT on October 25, 2007
I THINK 90L WILL BE TD BY 5 PM TOMORROW OR MAY BE BEFORE

huh? no it wont
839hrs32mins remain of 2007 atlantic hurricane season
STL. Thanks for that good post, and your excellent Blog on the subject. Well done and well explained.
Then, it is the year of short-lived storms, and it is not just an Atlantic thing, it has affected the entire Northern Hemisphere (maybe southern as well), which is currently the second least active season on record, which is saying a lot when you are talking about not just one basin but all of them; I put up a blog on this.

See? I had hinted to you a few weeks back that perhaps a global circulation pattern where conditions were less favorable for tropical cyclogenesis was occuring. I never thought 2007 would be like 1977 in terms of ACE, but that does appear to be the case.
huh? no it wont

That's his opinion, Taz. Everyone has the right to have one. He may be wrong, you may be wrong, we don't know.

Personally, I think it will develop, but then I also think it will only last 2 days if it does.
It's blowin' 25 knots solidly (or more) with gusts well into the 30s in San Juan right now. We've had occasional moderate rain. The NEXRAD Time-Series data shows turning to me! ... check it out!

Thanks Jeff for your attention here... NHC barely mentions this... If I were on my boat in the Sonda de Vieques right now, based on their forecast, it'd be damn uncomfortable.
Wow, stay safe ModernGeographic, although I don't see how you COULDN'T stay safe with winds of that magnitude.
Japan Meteorological Agency

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (T0720)
23.5N 131.4E - 35 kts 998 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
=============================
At 12:00 pm JST, Tropical Storm Faxai (T0720) maintained its 10 min sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots moving north-northwest at 15 knots.

expected sustained winds 0300z 27Oct is 50 knots

Gale Warning Area
=================
100 NM from the center of the cyclone

PAGASA

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
=============================
The active low pressure area over the Philippine Sea has intensified into a Tropical Depression and was named "JUANING" however, it will not affect any part of the country.

Maximum sustained winds 30 knots

Central Weather Bureau (Taiwan)

Tropical Storm Faxai

0000UTC 26 October 2007
Center Location 23.0N 131.6E
Movement NORTH
Minimum Pressure 998hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 35kts
Radius of 30 kts 100km

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
=============================
At 0:00am UTC Tropical Depression Twenty (Faxai) has 1 min sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The depression is located 275 NM southeast of Naha, Okinawa moving north-northwest at 18 knots.

significant wave height associated with Faxai is 12 feet.
Wow, man! This puff is sustained in the upper 30 knot range... Las Palmas de Coco are A ROCKIN'! It's driven the smoker employees at the Ritz Carleton in doors! lol Howlin' sounds through windows and heavy swishin' of the palm leaves.
Hi Kori. Re. your hinting that conditions were not favourable etc, a few weeks ago... And STL's blog.
6 Months ago I went out on a long limb, and said the Atlantic hurricane season would prove to be a dead one. I got a lot of stick for that, because I could not show " scientific data " to back up my idea.
I still have no scientific data, but I do have a fair amount of knowlege and experience from watching and SEEING what the weather is doing, over the past 40 years or so that I have been interested ( I'm 59 ).
The effects of the SAL on Trop. Atl. weather is not well understood, and my own " gut feeling " is that it is playing a huge role in the Atlantic weather. Cant account for Pacific weather though, or can it ?
Also, we are not taking into account major effects such as reduced Arctic ice, warmer European weather ect etc etc.
We live, we learn. Sometimes.......
Well pottery, I think it's a bit misleading to call to call the Atlantic dead. The only thing the Atlantic has seen this year is a below-normal level of ACE. Other than that, it's pretty much above average. I do think SAL supresses Atlantic hurricane activity, but from August up until now, SAL has averaged below-normal across the Atlantic basin, which explains our 8 storms in September and 2 in August. Also, I would think that if anything, the melting of the arctic sea ice would increase Atlantic hurricane activity.

Simply put, I think it's safe to say that although this year has a moderate La Nina there is a global circulation pattern similar to 1977 taking place. Has nothing to do with SAL, IMO.
695. 7544
for those interested as for the weekend the area in the carb. now and 90l will join forces and ..... see clip below what you think ?

.

Link
lol, TAZ, kewl! Glad you're spinning up now! btw, do you know your blog has reached the end of the internet? comments maxed. lol
697. 7544
south of cuba in the carb. is looking pretty healthy now this could do it without 90l s help
698. JLPR


The cmc is crazy
699. JLPR
pressure falling here in Carolina,PR at 1006mb
700. 7544
1005mb-188N-648W.100pc.jpg |90LINVEST.25kts

from the navt site
701. JLPR
yeah but i mean were I live not the system itself
702. JLPR
very obvious were 90l is
RadaR
wow, is now very windy, gusting to near tropical storm gust, i live next to san juan, and the latest image radar, is turning to the wnw not w is coming back at us imppresive invest i calling this at least a td, cause of su much gust
strong gusts right now!!!
we having a little problem with the power line here in carolina, cause of the strong gust
I'm hoping we don't loose power.
707. JLPR
90l reminds me of Dean's passage south of PR
gusts...
708. 7544
yeah you guys just read the 2.05 from the nhc its along one stay safe there
Link good looking invest or td is the same, right now having a rain band with strong gust
winds between 28 and 32 mph!!!
the rain has stop ,for now
but this is just the beggining of ur little invest 90l
is like now, the invest like puerto rico and found a parking near humacao, the system is moving to the wnw ur nw, im not kidding, it was suppose to head sw not nw ??????
713. Prgal
Hi guys! Where are you in PR weatherfan?
714. 7544
. hu2007 6:12 AM GMT on October 26, 2007
is like now, the invest like puerto rico and found a parking near humacao, the system is moving to the wnw ur nw, im not kidding, it was suppose to head sw not nw ??????



yes hu i see that maybe the ull in central carb is causing it to go in that direction krazy
what do you think about this invest??? 7544?
716. 7544
. hu2007 6:19 AM GMT on October 26, 2007
what do you think about this invest??? 7544?


from what i see the low is at 19n but the convection is to the east of it thats what you are =gettiong now this is suppose to meet up the caribiean blob low also and become one and head for fla if it gets in the carb. or we might see two differnt system . strange now that its going wnw and it looks like it wants to be a td real soon during this dmax right
yesss, a little strange, a erratic motion, byeeee, got to go
From the latest floater loops the mostly naked LLC appears to be moving across PR now in a WSW direction and the main convection is sheared off to the east.
It's trying to become a TD
720. 7544
waiting 15 min till blackout is over we can tell then whats going on
721. JLPR
hey yeah 90l changed direction
looks much more defined in radar
RaDaR
722. 7544
look at the carb. blow up this could be a sts soon too what you think ?
723. JLPR
that area sure looks good if it keeps it up it may be labeled invest 91l tomorrow
724. JLPR
Number of Active Alerts for PR: 2

ALERT 1 - Flash Flood Watch
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
Issued: Friday, October 26, 2007 2:54 AM AST
Expires: Friday, October 26, 2007 3:00 PM AST

ALERT 2 - Non Precipitation Advisory
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AST THIS MORNING
Issued: Friday, October 26, 2007 12:24 AM AST
Expires: Friday, October 26, 2007 8:30 AM AST

725. JLPR
well im out goodnight to anyone that might be there
hmm if things go as the model forecasts, the Arabian Sea might have its second tropical system. The first ''ARB'' was Gonu if anyone was interested in knowing.



CMC model for 90A
I'll never understand the TPC. 90L is a depression. Stevie Wonder could see that.
Unreal.
hmm if things go as the model forecasts, the Arabian Sea might have its second tropical system. The first ''ARB'' was Gonu if anyone was interested in knowing.

Interesting. I'll be keeping an eye on that.

As for 90L, I do believe judging by both radar and satellite imagery that the center is mostly exposed, with the deepest convection lying well to the east of the LLC because of strong shear. I think it will skirt the southeastern portion of Puerto Rico and bring heavy rain and potentially some flooding. After that, it's anyone's guess. I do believe this has a fair chance to become a tropical depression.
Conditions at Buoy #41043
Near 90L

Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
WVHT): 11.8 ft
Atmospheric Pressure(PRES): 29.80 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in Falling
NoGaps Takes 90l as a Depression into The Gulf
of Mexico ... Interesting.
731. 7544
5.30 am update

530 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...IS LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA
morning everyone looks like 90 is going to make it and be a td soon also watching the new area by western cuba could this be 91 latter today ?
734. IKE
Memo to Kim Perez at TWC....

You don't know what the heck you're talking about. Try reading the TWO occasionally.
Mornin Folks,
Just when you're ready to put the tropics to bed for the year... Looks like 90L could be joined by 91L. Get ready Fl, Ga, & Sc.. here comes mo' rain(YES)
Good morning all....90L is still fighting shear but moving into a more favorable enviroment as we speak...looks like the Arabian sea and Wpac are also active today
our western cuba blob is really trying to form it could be a td also without 90l joining forces and could this be a double punch for fla . interesting now
739. Relix
Levittown PR: Gusty, no rains, pretty cool. Why do I have a test today dammit!!!!
Wow looks like a lot of model support for development

Wow could they be more scattered? lol

741. IKE
JFV 5:16 AM CDT on October 26, 2007
IKE just curious, what did kim perez say about 90L?


She mainly talked about the huge low spinning out in the north Atlantic...the one that the NHC makes no mention of in their TWO.

She didn't put enough emphasis on 90L...didn't mention what the NHC did...that it was continuing to show signs of organization...she said conditions were unfavorable, when the NHC said conditions are becoming MORE favorable.

TWC..."The Hurricane Authority"...LMAO!
I would imagine in just the next few hours, 90L will move from about 30-40 kt shear to about 20-30 knot shear....looks like things will get interesting this weekend
incase u missed it this is what accuweather said before the west cuba blob came into the picture last night

Link
744. IKE
San Juan,PR discussion...

"Discussion...pressure gradient across the region and vigorous
turning of low level low has spread strong northeasterly winds into the local
Atlantic waters overnight...and across north and NE half of PR. Tjua
showed vwp winds as high as 40kt at 4k feet overnight...with
sustained winds 20 knots at tjbq...and gusts in the upper 20s
elsewhere. Due to interaction of upper low and low level circ and
induced vertical shear...deepest convection and most widespread weather
is expected to remain on east and southeast quads of this low as it
continues to move west or west-southwest today and tonight. Speed divergence
aloft will aid in potential for continued mesoscale convective complex development across
the NE Caribbean...including leeward and Virgin Islands...with brief
bursts likely across east half of PR. Heavy rain potential thus
exists and have issued a Flash Flood Watch for all but west sections
of PR. St Croix was hit with training echos in a SW to NE aligned
rainband overnight...and likely saw 2-4 inch totals in about 2
hours...and a Flash Flood Warning was issued."............


good morning
In 2008, if anyone didnt know, the "I" named storm will be called "Ike" lol
747. IKE
extreme236 5:40 AM CDT on October 26, 2007
In 2008, if anyone didnt know, the "I" named storm will be called "Ike"


OMG!!!!!!!!!
2008
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
749. IKE
They must be starting to use new names. I don't recall IKE or a few others on that list.

Marine weather for the NE GOM...off of the coast of the Florida panhandle...

"Marine...marine areas will see significant impact from the
impending weather pattern. Tight pressure gradient will set up by
Saturday and hold fast through much of next week. Small craft
conditions likely from Saturday through most of next week with
northeast winds occasionally reaching 25 to 30 knots and seas well
offshore occasionally reaching as high as 8 feet."
BBL
751. IKE
Marine forecast from Mobile,AL....

"Marine...high pressure will settle over the north central Gulf
through today then become reinforced from the northwest tonight and
continue through Monday morning. As a result a light northerly wind
flow can be expected this evening then steadily building from the
north late tonight continuing through early next week. With this...a
Small Craft Advisory will likely be required over the weekend. Gusts
to gale force could be possible also for the offshore waters Sunday
night.
Winds shift mostly northeast by Tuesday in response to high
pressure to the north shifting east and a developing area of low
pressure moving into the lower Gulf. Rain chances increase over the
marine area sun through midweek as the area of low pressure begins
to slowly emerge over the southeast Gulf."
Morning all
Morning, everyone.

We just had a serious downpour here, about 10 minutes ago now - lasted about 5 minutes, but it was five minutes cut from the middle of a TS! LOL Well, not really, but it was still dramatic. When I opened the door to step outside, it was not raining, nor was the wind blowing. Before I could actually step out and shut the door, the wind was up to about 25mph from the SE and the rain was pelting down. The wind / rain were sustained at that rate for about 5 - 6 minutes. Then, just as suddenly, both stopped. Now it's calm out with clearing skies. I've never seen anything quite like it. Normally winds build to that point; i.e. you have increasing gusts as a storm approaches until winds are sustained at a particular level.

Apparently this is a result of the approaching front . . .
Well, I see three areas of interest this morning.

90L, which I think is likely to become a TD. I'm not sure if it will make it all the way to another name, it certainly has the potential to do so if it does track south of the Big Islands as forecast by most models. After it hits the WCar (if it gets that far) it's anybody's guess as to what will happen.

Second, I'm looking at the end of the front that's currently draped over Cuba, the Bahamas and South Fla. I noticed the beginning of some rotation there yesterday, but it seems more like something at the surface today. Don't know if this will turn into something more organized or if it will just be an area of low pressure hanging around when 90L is scheduled to arrive . . .

Third, I'm looking at the SW CAR where that area of divergence is. I'm not saying anything is there right now; I'm just suggesting that there still seems to be a goodly amount of energy there available for the passing Twave or descending front . . .

Anybody with opinions on any of the above?

OH, and the 8:05 TWD has been out for at least 1/2 hour . . .
BahaHurican, I'm thinking the same thing as you basically , I'm worried about 90L as I live in Grand Cayman and I see 3 models bring it in that direction, who knows what could happen if it stalls in our area? The weather around here looks nasty as it is. I have lots of family living in Nassau.
BahaHurican forgive my manners I should have said Good morning to everyone.
good morning everyone

Quikscat shows a very broad circulation with 90L which is probably what is helping it fight off the shear so effectively. At the moment it does not seem to be tight enough for TD status though and deep convection over the center is still lacking

Having said all of that this system has persevered and seems intent on developing.
Current position is close to 17.5N 67W

Hi Stormpetrol

Thunder rumbling outside already this morning. 90L could be a threat for us come the weekend.
Let's hope it doesn't stall in our neighbourhood
Right now we have 90A, 99B, 90L, 94W, and TD Faxai. We've seen a fair number of invests this year, some of them in unusual locations / circumstances. I'm particularly watching the two Indian Ocean invests with interest. We don't see as many systems in those basins, though I know the Bengal ones can be devastating to the coastal areas of eastern India and Bangladesh.
Morning everyone!!
JP

90L will need to move to about 16N to have the best chance of organising. At its present lat the mountains of Hispaniola will interfere with the northern side of the circulation. If it takes a straight shot W from its current position I would not expect to see it do much until near Jamaica after moving away from Hisp.
JP

Have not looked at the radar data but if it is still moving to the SW then yes, it will certainly clear Hispaniola by a sufficient margin to spin up sooner than Jamaica, subject to shear levels of course !
Hey petrel,

I'm viewing 90L as at least a potential rainmaker in the Cayman area. However, given the late season "tradition", it wouldn't be surprising if it develops further in that area. I think if it gets further than TD status that's where it's likely to happen. I can only say better now than 2 weeks ago when SSTs and THCP were higher than they are now. Hopefully it won't give more than a small blow.

And it's not surprising about the Nassau relatives; I've got some friends who have been working down there for a while - mostly in banking - and I'm sure we've been exchanging family members (the Bahamas and the Caymans, I mean :o) for years . . . .LOL

well it is coffee time for me
7:12 here so must get going for the day. Will check in from time to time today. Hope I don't have to pull my boat out this Sat. LOL
I really hope it stays clear of Hispaniola, especially the Haiti end. I don't think they need more rain on the Port-au-Prince end of the country :o(.

Hi Kman,

Quite a few loud rumbles of thunder this morning, 90L moving WSW is not a good track for us at all, would feel better if it was moving W or WNW.

For anyone interested in viewing the cloudy sky downtown Grand Cayman live via webcam, you can go to http://www.caycompass.com/webcam

You can control the camera to view preset sites such as the Harbour , Ocean , etc.
Have a good one, kman. I'm sitting down to the first cup of coffee myself right now. A bit later than usual . . . LOL
JP

That front shown on the map just N of the Yucatan would mean a NE turn for anything that developed. S Fla ( and the W coast in particular ) needs to keep a close watch on this one IMO
Stormpetrol

Nothing to do but wait and watch for now

BBL
I was looking at that front as well. I remember seeing the path for some storm that was headed due west which made a 90 degree right turn across Cuba, I am assuming, due to the passage of a front . . . If I find it I'll post it.
Good morning all - raining cats & dogs here - very dark. Could be an interesting day.
Good Morning Folks....A lot of odds against 90L for significant development but interesting how the model runs keep it in the Southern tier of the Antilles (in the vicinity where Dean & Felix crossed over); However, if this weak system has significant interaction with land, and the shear does not relax that much, then it's pretty much over (with the exception of the rain and mud-slide threat if it brings alot of rain to Hispanola and Jamaica as mentioned by Dr. M. yesterday)....Well, something to look at in late October.........
We may have a Subtropical system near the Yucatan before 90L
what's going on over near the Yucatan?
Morning JFV how are you doing.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA OVER THE
ISLE OF YOUTH TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W.
THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN
80W-85W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N78W TO NEAR
19N82W. SMALL UPPER LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO COVERING THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE 1005 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 18N66W AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N E OF 71W ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES SOUTH AMERICA
AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ENHANCING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA...
COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA.
JFV where do you go to school at.
Morn'n everybody. Late season surprise in store for Florida? Insurance is expensive enough as it is. Gives us something to track tho. Thats always cool. Have a good day all.
Morning StormW
I have to admit I wouldn't call between JA and Haiti the SOUTHERN tier . . . LOL

I do however, see fewer chances for significant development if 90L stays near the big island. I think the circulation wouldn't consolidate as much. A lot depends on how far south it dips today.
785. jphurricane2006 8:27 AM EDT on October 26, 2007
weatherwannabe?


Haven't had my coffee yet, and didn't get much sleep last night because of in-laws at the house; Sorry, will wake up and re-analize what the heck I'm, talking about!.....See you guys a little later (although I "thought" that Felix and Dean crossed just south of Jamaica and Caiman and some of the models send 90L in that general direction......Maybe my old mind is going too, but, thanks for keeping me on task)...LOL
Morning StormW I would like to know if this system has the potential to get to the strength of wilma considering it is October already and the water temperature. Thank you in advance for your input
Morning, Storm.

When u get a chance, I'd be glad to hear your comments on the SW CAR. Just ITCZ interaction, or potentially something more later?
MDC? have a daughter that goes to UCF and she was complaining about the cool weather and rain......i told her she needs more education or another school because she isn't learning to much there........lol
StormW i have RoadRunner was having problems also until i got a Donut......LMAO
743. stormybil 6:27 AM AST on October 26, 2007
incase u missed it this is what accuweather said before the west cuba blob came into the picture last night

Link



Good morning everyone,

still got some back reading to do but I did open this link by stormybil. Thanks for the info.

I don't like what he is saying here at all.
So where do you estimate the center of 90 to be? Looks like it is just south of the Mona Channel.
Morning all...looks like it could be an interesting day.

Any flights scheduled to take a look at 90L -

AND - How about the convection at the end of the stalled front? Looks like the tropics are alive and kicking!
799. weathermanwannabe 8:28 AM EDT on October 26, 2007
(although I "thought" that Felix and Dean crossed just south of Jamaica and Caiman and some of the models send 90L in that general direction......


OK, see what u r thinking about now. I guess we were thinking more about point of entry into the CAR also. But enough of the models do seem to thread 90L between JA and the other Greater Antillies to make that an equal possibility. As I said earlier, a lot is going to depend on how far S the SW movement takes it during the course of the day. Unfortunately IMO if it DOES go south, the potential for significant development increases due to increased SSTs in the area.
That UKMET forecast made me pause - however, I have to admit it seems pretty unlikely given current conditions. I guess it was basing that early turn on the easward advancement of the front currently hanging out in our area.

BTW, people on the E coast FL, are u feeling a bit cooler this a.m.? Outside temps here are finally cooling off a bit in the mornings. Afternoons are still pretty warm, though.
802. Miamiweather 12:33 PM GMT on October 26, 2007
Morning StormW I would like to know if this system has the potential to get to the strength of wilma considering it is October already and the water temperature. Thank you in advance for your input
Action: | Ignore User


Well it is always possible but the chances of that happening are slim. Heat content is high is some areas but not as high as when Wilma developed. Although i believe there is enough heat content and warm water to support a Intense hurricane if conditions are right. As we all know however, Tropical activity is very unpredictable so we will just have to see what unfolds.
The tropics are slowing fading to Grey...as climatology brings the westerlies.

GOES-12 WV Loop of the Tropical Basin Link
74.6 °F / 23.7 °C
Thunderstorm
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 72 °F / 22 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph / 1.6 km/h
Pressure: 29.93 in / 1013.4 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 73 °F / 23 °C



Yes it is nicer here in SE Fla (Broward) but cool weather I think is because of rain. It is still predicted toget up to 85 today in my area! LOL That "cold" front didn't really affect us.
Based on Shear 90L will have a tough time for awhile, if it survives..
814. BahaHurican 8:40 AM EDT on October 26, 2007
799. weathermanwannabe 8:28 AM EDT on October 26, 2007
(although I "thought" that Felix and Dean crossed just south of Jamaica and Caiman and some of the models send 90L in that general direction......

OK, see what u r thinking about now. I guess we were thinking more about point of entry into the CAR also.


The Java is starting to kick-in; Yeah, that's what I meant (where it could end up) as opposed to the point of entry...Thank You!
Morning All!

WSW with 90L, almost more W to WSW. ECMWF still likes South Florida for a target. And yes Baha, the weather, although rainy, is great. Struggling to get out of the 70's, much needed break from the heat.
Center of 90 just south of Mona Island.
Steering Flow 400-850.
JFV
just looking at steering and shear. The system will be fighting shear for 24-36 hours. Then it becomes interesting. If you look at the current steering it looks like a south tip florida problem. But, as the front retrogrates back as a warm front it should allow a more West move. But right now tough to call.
StormW 400-850
re: developing another wilma, here in cozumel we are verryyy chilly.. shouldn't this norte cool the waters enough to avoid further development in the western carribbean? at least that is the mayan saying we have here in cozumel.
841. MZT
The computer models aren't developing 90L too well. The Canadian does show something forming in the southern Bahamas is about 4 days. It tends to be an optimistic model, though.
Morning folks. StormW, I'd send you my 12 pound adjustment tool but shipping is expensive and you probably already have a computer adjustment tool. (Large hammer) Sorry to hear about your problems with the technogical terror.
Steering flow 700-850
Thank you StormW......rookie here...lol
845. MZT
diverphd, we are probably getting close to a normal pattern now for late season storms. They curve east sooner and do not progress north as easily. Mexico and most of the Gulf is probably free of major storms at this point.
Tampa, can I encourage you to try hitting [enter] once or twice before you put you image info in? That way you last word won't end up stuck to the picture . . . .

Thanks!
Gm,all,nice to see the tropics still on everyones mind.
Thanks for the comment, Storm. I was thinking that area (SW Car) is the last area to "die off" potential-wise, and this morning it looks like there are still some possibilities there. However, I'm thinking even if anything blows up there it's still pretty likely to head off to the west before any serious development can take place. . . .
847. BahaHurican 9:21 AM EDT on October 26, 2007
Tampa, can I encourage you to try hitting [enter] once or twice before you put you image info in? That way you last word won't end up stuck to the picture . . . .

Thanks!


My bad. Fixed it. Thank you.
Ahh, My caffine IV is infusing.I have a pulse.lol
LOL, JP. I was just looking at that figure 8 over the Azores, too. I wouldn't call this a normal configuration, even for November . . .
849. jphurricane2006 9:23 AM EDT on October 26, 2007
normal pattern?

have you seen the high off the east coast? thats not normal lol


LOL. JP have a donut.
856. JFV 9:27 AM EDT on October 26, 2007
Alright thanks for the output TampaSpin.


JFV--JMO...listen to the professionals like StormW.
858. MrSea
90L looks worse
Hey, Tampa. U have had some good comments. Don't sell yourself short . . . Thanks for posting the steering, BTW.
859. BahaHurican 9:31 AM EDT on October 26, 2007
Hey, Tampa. U have had some good comments. Don't sell yourself short . . . Thanks for posting the steering, BTW.


Thank you.
862. MZT
I was speaking in very general terms.

It is more typical in November for shallow systems to threaten the islands and south Florida. Sometimes the tail of a cold front in the Gulf gets something started that reaches west Florida.

I also agree that the SW Carribbean near Costa Rica and Panama, is one of the last places to give in to winter. There have been a couple of late season systems that festered down there for a few days, before finally meandering out.
863. MrSea
JP I said it looks worse, not is worse...it is getting deeper but the Sat looks like a smoke plume being blown in the wind lol
Bloggers here have Ego's, i would not have believed that......LMAO
851. TampaSpin 9:25 AM EDT on October 26, 2007

My bad. Fixed it. Thank you.


It's all good. It's live and learn around here; better to get the soft landing than the the hard slam . . . {g}

841. MZT 9:18 AM EDT on October 26, 2007

. . . The Canadian does show something forming in the southern Bahamas is about 4 days. It tends to be an optimistic model, though.


This is the most positive description of the CMC's antics I've seen all season . . . LOL.

I'm not buy either the CMC or UKMET for now, though. If that front starts progressing again, maybe things will differ. Right now, it looks like if 90L makes a turn across the Greater Antilles, it'll do so over Cuba. And that's only IF.
Well technically, if 90L looked that much worse then dvorak numbers would go down, and they have not...they remain at 1.5
BTW, Mr Sea, blogging from school, or day off?

If from school, I'm jealous, since I can't blog from work :o(
Hey stormW is the synopsis up for today
StormW,
Thank you that means alot coming from you. Just trying to post things imformative without being a wishcaster, that would be death in here.....lol
873. MrSea
from school...gotta go teacher here lol bye
pressure down to 1004mb with 90L according to 12Z initial conditions
NHC has 90L at 67W
67.0W/17.5N
JP--you should start a list of bloggers that might possibly want to add some black bird to their weekend shopping trip.
822. Patrap 12:50 PM GMT on October 26, 2007
The tropics are slowing fading to Grey...as climatology brings the westerlies.

GOES-12 WV Loop of the Tropical Basin Link


There is nice circulation at the end of the stalled front. Check out the link Patrap posted earlier.
Ya'll see quikscat?

Around 5-6am gmt we were watching a well defined spin on PR radar which is now no more...
SHIPS and DSHPS has 90L slowly strengthen over the next 36 hours or so then the SHIPS peaks it at 62 kts and DSHP shows 56 kt peak
Well it looks like the circulation is almost closed on QS...NHC still shows it closed on their sfc maps
90L kind of looks like a crow on IR imagery lol...maybe its a sign lol
Here's the right one not near as defined & farther from the surface coc than lastnight
It seems like the system south west of Cayman is stationary, in low shear and strengthining convection and rotation. I wonder if the Doctor will be giving this some serious consideration today.
Good morning, all.

Yeah, Skye, the coc doesn't look nearly as defined as it did in the early morning hours.

Still, I don't trust any low pressure system in the Caribbean.
tropical system over southern france!?

Visible Satellite of Europe
http://www.sat24.com/images.php?country=eu&type=last&303070

Regional Radar Loop of Europe
http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur
90L DOES LOOK BETTER ON THE VISUAL THIS MORNING
This is totally off the topic of 90L, but u may find the photographic methodology seen in this 1960 report on Hurricane Donna to be, well, interesting . . .

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1960/donna/radarpic/umia1.gif
The system is at 17.8N/67.8W
that radar just seems to show 90L moving out of range for the radar, I can still see the CoC fine, but there isnt as much precip to track it with toward the end so it is harder to see
A good day to one and all. Keep a lid on things.lol Later.
looks like the COC on 90L just passed the southern coast of Puerto Rico in plenty of shear.

Does anyone want to comment on the disturbance SW of Cayman? This looks more favorable for short term development.
Extreme you are correct out of view and little convection.
Shear is high right now over 90L and that is no surprise...it may take a day or two for some lighter shear...lets not hold our expectations too high for this in the short term
It could be there is a Black Flock of Birds that is covering the COC on 90L ....lol
Hmmm .. . long time residents of SE US may remember 1960 as a bad hurricane year. Even though only 6 named storms occurred, 5 of them hit the US, and one of them was the historic Donna.

Yet another season which proves it's not the number that form, it's the number that make landfall . ..
Again, any low pressure in the Caribbean has to be watched. Yes, there is still a rotation near the southwest side of the island, but it's nearly totally void of convection. And, it's quite a small area. The ULL in the wCarib has much better presentation. If 90L can survive the shear, there could be more concern in a couple of days.
Dmaddox!


Cool links! Sure does look like a tropical system on sat and radar! Care to comment StormW? Dr. Masters? Would like to hear your takes on this one!
Does anyone have comments regarding the circulation SW of Cayman?
This looks like the one to watch on the short term.
There is building convection, closing circulation, low shear and it looks like the convection north of Panama is sending a jet of energy that way.
There's been some comment on that S France system before, right? And this is like the third "subtropical low storm" we've seen in that area since the end of Aug. (definitely the second)

Hmmm .. . .
NHC has just indicated a LPS west of Cayman. Curr 1008.
90L lookin a little naked this a.m.

West carrib system lookin more impressive with each new pic. Gonna be interesting to see how they play out with each other. Combine maybe? Perhaps do the "Fuji" dance in the Carrib? I do love watching these things, I just don't want 'em to hurt anyone.
911. UYA
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W.
912. UYA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 26 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-154

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.5N 75.0W AT 28/1800Z.
Still ULL no pressure decreases showing anything to the surface YET!
Conditions at 42056 as of
(9:50 am EDT)
1350 GMT on 10/26/2007: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 10.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 12.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.9 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NNE ( 21 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1012.7 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +1.5 mb ( Rising )

The area of the Cayman disturbance has the highest potential for Tropical Cyclone development in the Caribbean.

Link
UYA,

Most interesting potential w/ the WCar ULL right now is whether it will stick around long enough to spin down. Well, it has some rainmaking potential too.
weather.gov
National Weather Service

THE AREA OF LOW PRES
NEAR PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W AND REACH THE W
CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS GREAT
UNCERTAINTY TO ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS COULD INCREASE AROUND THE LOW ITSELF...BUT THIS EVENT
APPEARS TO HAVE A GREATER CHANCE TO BE A GRADIENT WIND EVENT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WELL TO THE NW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

If 90L is expected to reach the w. caribbean by sunday then that is when I would expect the best potential for development would be at for this system
Most interesting potential w/ the WCar ULL right now is whether it will stick around long enough to spin down. Well, it has some rainmaking potential too

Looks like it is moving south now.
NWS Mobile discussion:

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...LOOKING MORE LIKE OCTOBER IN
THE LONG TERM AS WE REMAIN DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN SLOWLY CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK.
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES...AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...SO IT COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AGAIN
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. /22

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH TODAY THEN BECOME REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THEN STEADILY BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED OVER THE WEEKEND. GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE COULD BE POSSIBLE ALSO FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT MOSTLY NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTING EAST AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER GULF. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE
MARINE AREA SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY EMERGE OVER THE SE GULF. /32
Interesting, utila, but not necessarily surprising. Conditions there are about the best overall for development right now. That's why we've been saying if 90L hangs on to get into that "box" it's more likely to develop.

I still think that ULL would have to hang around for a while for us to see any tropical / surface development, though.
looks like we have fun and games for the end of october. The guy that starts with a B thinks there are two tropical cyclones in the carribean. combination is possible...
920. jphurricane2006 2:29 PM GMT on October 26, 2007
1008mb surface low has formed in conjunction with the ULL due west of the caymans, about 100 miles


Link please
893. dmaddox 9:05 AM CDT on October 26, 2007
tropical system over southern france!?

Visible Satellite of Europe
http://www.sat24.com/images.php?country=eu&type=last&303070

Regional Radar Loop of Europe
http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur



Sub-tropical, not common for this area of the MED this time of year, but certainly not rare; there were two in the MED last week, one south of Italy and the other in nearly the exact location of the one your pointing out; that one produced TS winds on the coast as it EXITED the mainland
90L into the western carribean sunday....then into the GOM on tuesday..??????????....OZ
Baha, please don't say "Box"...someone might mention those other "boxes" and the panic will begin
OMG.....OMG....THE BOXES
930. UYA
Anything can happen in the W Carib. Wouldn't surprise me to have a couple areas to watch. The ULL is looking pretty good on RGB imagery right now.
BahaHurican,

Interesting, utila, but not necessarily surprising. Conditions there are about the best overall for development right now. That's why we've been saying if 90L hangs on to get into that "box" it's more likely to develop.

I still think that ULL would have to hang around for a while for us to see any tropical / surface development, though.


Thanks. It looks like this area is building up and there will be some interaction with the convection N of Panama. There is not much movement.

I agree with you regarding the BOX. Location, location, location.
Oh I see it Jp...thanks...looks like a 1008 mb LPC east of the front
Hmmmm....how do you read that number below Louisiana (approx. 46.6N, 90W) on this wind shear tendency map?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

(Sorry, my browser still won't do the link thingy. Please cut and paste.)
An area of low pressure is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the northern Leeward Islands, and into Puerto Rico in the western Atlantic.

This low pressure will continue to move slowly west or west northwest over the next few days, bringing more showers and thunderstorms into the Caribbean. While upper-level winds are currently inhibiting any tropical cyclone formation, they will lessen as the low moves west, and therefore it bears watching for some possible slow development.

This is per The Weather Channel update at 5 this morning. Maybe they need to pay attention to the NHC because they are stating it is moving WSW. I know I don't have a meterology degree but I can even tell its moving WSW not WNW or West.
920. jphurricane2006 10:29 AM EDT on October 26, 2007
1008mb surface low has formed in conjunction with the ULL due west of the caymans, about 100 miles


When was this?
New Blog
New blog is up.
90L is not looking as good as it did around 11 pm last night. While convection tends to blow up at night there has been a marked seperation of any shower activity from the circulation center itself.

The low center is now near 17N 68W and the ball of heavy convection that was close to it last night is now completely gone.

It appears to be moving at a fairly good clip and this combined with shear is obviously contributing to its inability to generate any convection over or near the COC

It will need to slow, or shear will need to relax significantly ( or both ! ) if it is to have a real shot at becoming a TD IMO

Naked swirls can only last so long even with a low surface pressure before they open up into a wave

928. OZarkfrompcola 9:36 AM CDT on October 26, 2007
OMG.....OMG....THE BOXES


See? I told you...LOL
good morning to all,looking at the models and the visibles this morning,really hard to get a feel for what lies ahead.
http://wwlln.net/WWLLN_movies/Movie_of_Lightning_in_Americas_BIG.gif

Couple of things to note from an electrics standpoint.

1. Note the onshore flow over where the fires are in SoCal. There's no Pac high coupling anything right now. No cold core coupling, either in the Pacific.

2. North of system look at high pressure. That's the wheel that will right turn any storm toward the US. This looks to be a beautiful coupled large scale region with fair weather and then in large circle convection all around it and all associated with strikes largely in south america.

3. Space weather is favorable w/ solar winds dropping below 500 km/sec:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ace/Mag_swe_24h.gif

4. QBO neg thus favorable for Atlantic formation.

5. Bloom activity now showing up in east Florda, previously along Bahamas and then, of course, south of there near Caracus Venezuela. The latter is probably more important, becuase most of the displacement currents powering 16 come from South America with that bloom area in the conductive pathway to the storm.

6. Consider La Nina connotation. Remember that the colder SSTs are for each degF there is a one percent drop in conductivity. What that means is that with these heavy diurnal pulses of lightning, between about 22 UT and about 3 UT, there is no place for that current to couple out west to the tropics. So that leaves the bulk of the cloud microphysics affects to take place elsewhere. We also have seen very little in the EPAC, the Pacific high that brought the Santa Ana is done and the cold cores in teh Pacific are done. There is nothing left but the Atlantic. Also keep in mind that the source of the displacement current will be less global--as less leaking also means less from other parts of the world coming to the coupled region, excluding what comes off of the African coast--that's another current pathway. So, as pretty much expected, this upgrade to a tropical depresssion comes during peak strikes. Don't be surprised, OTOH, to see it weaken as peak strike period ends.

7. I'll throw this in but we have a full moon and that seems to have correlated with Atlantic tropical storm activity this year. Not exactly sure what that means to this point.

http://www.methanemike.com