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Disorganized Noel still dumping heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:59 PM GMT on October 29, 2007

Tropical Storm Noel's center is back over water this afternoon, near the eastern tip of Cuba. An encounter with the mountains of Hispaniola has left Noel very disorganized. Top winds from this afternoon's hurricane hunter flight were in the 45-50 mph range, and the pressure was a high 1001 mb. Noel's prodigious rains of over one inch per hour have slowed to 1/2 inch per hour, according to satellite estimates. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows heavy rains affecting the Dominican Republic and western Puerto Rico. These rains have already exceeded eight inches over a wide area of ocean to the east of Noel's center, according to rainfall estimates from the Puerto Rico radar. Rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches over southern Puerto Rico have triggered numerous flash floods and landslides. The Holguin, Cuba radar shows spiral bands of heavy rain affecting the eastern part of Cuba and the easternmost Bahama Islands.

Flooding on Hispaniola
Noel has increased it's forward speed, but heavy rains will continue to affect Hispaniola for two more days, and the flooding situation will be extremely serious on the island. Satellite loops show very vigorous thunderstorms reaching high into the atmosphere continue to stream over Hispaniola. These thunderstorms dumped about 175 mm (7 inches) of rain in the past 24 hours near the capital of the Dominican Republic, Santo Domingo (Figure 1).

So far, Haiti has escaped the worst of Noel's heavy rains, giving hope that a repeat of the floods triggered by Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 might be avoided. Jeanne passed just north of Haiti as a tropical storm, and dumped about 13 inches of rain over the northern mountains. The resulting floods killed over 3,000 people. However, satellite images show a large region of disturbed weather to the southeast of Hispaniola associated with Noel, and Noel's counter-clockwise circulation will pull heavy rains over Hispaniola for the next two days. I expect that some regions of Haiti will receive over 12 inches of rain from Noel.


Figure 1. Satellite estimates of rain for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT Monday, 10/29/07. Note the pink "bulls-eye" at upper right of the image over Hispaniola, indicating heavy rain of about 175 mm (7 inches) fell over the southern Dominican Republic. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The track forecast
The latest computer model runs from 12Z this morning are in better agreement, but have shifted Noel's point of recurvature closer to South Florida. The models all forecast that Noel will follow a northwest or west-northwest track for the next 2-3 days parallel to Cuba, through the Bahamas. One key question is, what will be the timing and strength of a trough of low pressure forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast Thursday? A slower arrival of this trough will allow Noel to penetrate farther west. The other key question is, how strong will Noel be then? A weaker Noel that does not extend as high into the atmosphere is likely to make it further west. The ECMWF model forecasts that Noel will be a very shallow and weak tropical storm which will not recurve until it reaches South Florida. The HWRF is similar, forecasting a 45 mph tropical storm that will recurve about 50-100 miles off the coast of Miami. A stronger Noel will extend higher in the atmosphere, and will recurve sooner. The GFDL model forecasts Noel will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, and recurves Noel the farthest east, in the central Bahamas. The other models are in between.

The intensity forecast
Passage over the mountainous terrain of Haiti has severely disrupted Noel, and it will likely not start intensifying significantly until Tuesday afternoon. Wind shear is about 10-20 knots, and is expected to remain in that range over the next three days. This will allow some strengthening of Noel if its center can avoid moving over Cuba. I give Noel a 30% chance of reaching hurricane strength. After three days, wind shear is expected to increase above 20 knots, and Noel should weaken.

In summary, if Noel does make it all the way to South Florida, it will probably be as a weak tropical storm. If Noel strengthens significantly, it is likely to recurve sooner. It could be a windy trick-or-treat time in Miami Wednesday night.

The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight this evening, so we should have a set of high-quality model runs to look at first thing Tuesday morning, when I'll post my next update.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

JTN- as an emergency management professional I can tell you that it is up to the local govenrment what actions are taken once a watch or warning is issued. In most cases a Tropical storm watch will not facilitate many closings, a warning may cause cancelation of some after school activities and the recommended evacuation of mobile homes, and low lying areas. The watches and warnings are issued so that local government officials can make informed decisions. As aome have stated there are other hazards that go along with even week systems, ie tornadoes, flooding, etc. The local EM uses his hazard analysis to determin what appropriate protective actions should be taken. Not the NHC...They just give information in the form of watches and warnings.
Updated at 8am Kori

NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD EMERGE
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE
THE CENTER OF NOEL MOVES BACK

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA
1995. KoritheMan 9:32 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
Am I the only one seeing that Noel's winds are 50 mph on the tropical page on WU? Is that an error? The 5:00 AM advisory put them at 50 kt (60 mph). Don't see them going down that fast.

Any help would be much appreciated.

Winds down 10mph due to land interaction with cuba.
Ah, so it moved over Cuba. Thanks for that, TCW.
2005. jtn
I agree-andthankgodsofarthey have issued gale warnings and high wind warnings - very similar to what is issued for northeasters - to put the public on notice of high wind potential. It seems most of us know that the single biggest cause of death (with exception of mountain terrain) with tropical systems is the surge. Nothing significant is expected here (even with a direct hit ) in the way of surge and the wind issue has been addressed with gale warnings. By the way - we are at a very low astronomical tide period here in south florida - this week. So thats another good point for coastal communities.
Ya know, the model that jumps out at ME, in terms of 'confusion'...is the UKMET
Winds down 10mph due to land interaction with cuba.

Even though TCW answered me, I thank you too. :)

Stay safe in South Florida, Adrian. Even though I doubt Noel is going to pose much of a problem in terms of any flood damage, since the west side is relatively dry.
Yea 1911 I was just looking at that. They are all over the place.
Will high pressure building back to the W affect the TX trough?
I'd bet money the NHC won't look stupid. Why does everyone continue to mock the professionals. Maybe everyone in Florida should just evacuate now just in case!! Would that make everyone happy? :)
2013. jpritch
Tampa, I think it is forming a new center, and reeling in the closest outer bands to its east.
morning folks. I've been lurking around these past few days...checking in now and again. So theres a bit of controversy brewing as to what Noel will do, eh? I think a Halloween storm is about right for Fla. (its all about Murphy and his menacing laws!) I like what the Weathermansince5 said. That high pressure system wont push it out until thurs. But I do think shear will have its way with Noel... What'da y'all think?
I believe by 2 P.M. you will see a watch of some kind issued for South Florida. Based upon my interpretations of the current model guidance.
Ok, the UKMET on the loop doesnt look wiggy like the plot *laffs*
Thank You Storm W!
You otta look at the CLIP and CLP5 both have it reentering the Carribean coming up into the GOM and boom Tampa.....LMAO
Does anyone have a link to the page showing all the models?
House i just seen the same thing..lol
1982. Sfloridacat5 9:27 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
Several year ago we had a Tropical Storm hit in the early morning hours (Ft. Myers area). The center of the T.S. went right over the area with winds in the 50-60mph range.

There were school buses on the road and kids walking to school in 60mph winds. A lot of people were extremely upset because the school district didn't cancel school.
It was crazy.

The topical storm came at us from the west unexpectly during the early morning hours and the school district was unable to call off school on such short notice.


jtn, please take note of this.
If that had happened to MY kids, they'd still be talkin about it down at the courthouse. That's why warnings are issued early on. If you have ever served in the military, you know it is a lot easier to "stand down" from analert than to mobilize for and it iakes more time. This thing is not a thousand miles away. And when it turns this way time is going to be a precious commodity.
really house? what makes you say that?
HouseofGryffindor-

The CLP5 is purely a climatological model that takes into account current motion and looks that what similar storms in the past at this time your moved like.
Hey Mark

I notice the latest runs have it well the the west and a little south from where the NHC has it. I belive a shift in the cone is coming very fast.
2021. TampaSteve 9:41 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
Does anyone have a link to the page showing all the models?


Here ya go
Link
Will Cuba be our secret friend again? Stay Tuned!
I was in a store yesterday and there were lots of people who hadn't even heard there was a storm out there, let alone that it may affect us. With tomorrow night being Halloween people should be keeping a close eye.
2020. TheCaneWhisperer 9:40 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
Brings back some memories eyy!

Could be yes....Infact i think its 50/50 on that happening.
OK IM OUT !!
2036. CJ5
Moring all. Noel kinda slipped up on me...been away for a few days and missed it. This may be the last one of season to watch.
Thanks, TampaSpin...that page is sweet!
2038. jtn
FloridaRick - I agree with what you say. However there are mony things which "automatically" happen the moment a watch or warning is issued...most notably the "press and their response". I know asa fact the TPC is keenly aware of this...and I guarantee you they are looking for and finding every reason to NOT issue warnings or watches in this case. Asise from all of my other arguments - the real story here is - the TPC is damn good at what they do. They are in very tough situations - and all I am doing is defending what they have chosen to do and others are slamming them for it. Bottom line is they know their "****" better than anyone in here (by far). They are the top experts in the world of Cyclone Prediction and there are to many in this room who are alarmists and get off on this stuffandflat out pout when things dont go their way......which is OK .....but they will have arguments sometimes from guys like me!! LOL
2028. TampaSpin 1:43 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
2021. TampaSteve 9:41 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
Does anyone have a link to the page showing all the models?

Here ya go
Link


Thank You Tampa...that is a good link!

Hey Jp

Long time not talk. Looks like I may get some rain out of this one lol. But yes the models seem to have made a error in this path. Like me teachers always said. Man made junk if it can fail it will fail sooner or later.
The models are still in good agreement and are clustered showing the curve out to sea.
I was in a store yesterday and there were lots of people who hadn't even heard there was a storm out there, let alone that it may affect us. With tomorrow night being Halloween people should be keeping a close eye.
people get distracted. Their biggest concerns are what their costume will look like and whether they have enough candy for the neighborhood kids. This can be quite a surprise to most folks if Fla takes a hit. I wonder how many stupid parents will try to take their kid trick or treating in a tropical storm?
2043. Hhunter
Link

folks, looks to me like the storm is winning out right now in the air mass battle. Seems to me like the high is building in more. thoughts comments
027. BajaALemt 9:43 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
All Model Map


I'm gonna eat a little crow for my earlier comments on CMC. I'm not sure about the intensity, but I think their track is very close to what I expect at the moment. Thanks for the link, Baja.
Now is the time in s.fl. to just walk around your house and secure your lawn furniture.Take down hanging plants or anything that can blow away.No need to panic just use your head. Been here since '67' and will always protect my home.
2047. Hhunter
jtn how is that nhc job treating you.hehehehe
The models are NOT initializing well...and their tracks should not be used as the limits to what might happen.

The stronger ridging building over the southeast is shunting Noel to the west over Cuba. The ridge will probably break down enough to allow for a recurvature...but when and where is VERY uncertain...





2049. PBG00
I wonder how many stupid parents will try to take their kid trick or treating in a tropical storm?

Depends on the strength..A mild TS will not stop kids from going out..I think most people will be out tomorrow, unless it spins up into a hurricane..and comes closer to Fla..At this point its not going to be much.
2047. Hhunter 8:51 AM CDT on October 30, 2007
jtn how is that nhc job treating you.hehehehe



LOL
Cuban Radar clearly indicates the circulation on it's way to the Caribbean.
2052. lennit
wow he is looking very disorganized now.LLC may expose soon.. unless midlevel center just off the coast forms a new one
2053. NEwxguy
good morning,all
back after a long weekend with confusion in the models,some things never change.
I think it's typical of MOST storms to have the most severe weather in the northeastern quadrant, but why does everyone keep saying that the significant rainfall/weather will be to the east? From the past 12 hours or more it appears the heavy convection is staying to the north towards the northwest.
2048. OSUWXGUY 8:51 AM CDT on October 30, 2007
The models are NOT initializing well...and their tracks should not be used as the limits to what might happen.

The stronger ridging building over the southeast is shunting Noel to the west over Cuba. The ridge will probably break down enough to allow for a recurvature...but when and where is VERY uncertain...



And therein lies the rub...when, where and how strong will the recurve be? The front they were looking at to recurve the TS is still 900 miles or so away, while this thiong is moving faster than the models are allowing for; it's going to be an interesting day or two
southfloridacat5, wasn't that no name storm in 1998? I remember one coming from the west and flooding south florida. Everyone went to school and work and then had MAJOR issues getting home due to flooded streets, power outages, and all that stuff.

my biggest issue today is whether or not I should put the patio stuff, I already took down the umbrella because of the winds over the weekend, as for my kids, depending on my interpretation of the weather tomorrow morning, they may get the day off whether it's official or not.
2043. Hhunter 9:49 AM EDT on October 30,
folks, looks to me like the storm is winning out right now in the air mass battle. Seems to me like the high is building in more. thoughts comments


Actually WV comfirms the High is IMO pushing West hard now.....even the Front over florida is retorgrating NW now. Things will have to change soon for the NHC track to play out IMO.

Link
jp, what do you think of the CMC model track on the link Baja posted?
2060. PBG00
When was Irene? That caught alot of people off guard..

I will take in the plants and patio stuff..don't want any missles in case of a strong gust..
2061. Hhunter
cane whisperer....not seeing your cuban radar carribean track. just think the radar is getting out of range..
Can't wait for the 11 am...should be an interesting day, folks!
based on the link HHunter provided, It looks like the high will keep it at bay. I see lots of dry air to the North and East...However it looks like there's some closed circulation trying to form into an eye. And it looks as if it may not move around much at all...giving it time to build a bit. Its in the hands of the high.
JTN- Understood, and I agree that they know what they are doing (TPC). If they see the need they will issue one, if they don't they won't. It is also up to local governments to take care of themselves and their constituents. That is the problem with America today, we are all waiting for Uncle Sam to tell us what to do or to do it for us. I for one will use the information from the TPC, what some in here don't realize is that they are working on a cycle, most times the information is at best a few hours older than real time. These folks in here have the advantage of Having real time info, used to second guess the professionals. I beleive that they will see the forecast track shift by the NHC, what they don't understand is that the NHC has to wait for the 1100 cycle to post it. They can't just willy nilly come out and change the track, they follow the trends. if they changed the track everytime they saw the storm not doing exactly what was predicted, the thing would be like a windshield wiper, back and forth every 15 minutes.
2066. jtn
6Z models.....HWRF, GFS and UKmet have ALL shifted slightly east....Gfdl takes storm much further east of florida than earlier.
2067. Hhunter
10-4 tampaspin that is what i am seeing also.
My thoughts it will never make into the caribbean as some are suggesting and the center will pop out alter this afternoon and begin its heading to the NW or it it could possibly reform of the cuban coast over the deep convection.

The question is when will that turn take place and how close to the florida coast will it come.
2069. franck
SW probably means it dies over Cuba.
Looks like it like the warm Carrib water with less Shear....hummm
TampaSpin & Floodman-

Agreed it's a darn tough forecast and interesting 36 hours of weather.

Looking at the western water vapor loop from ramsdis: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM//rmsdsol/rsomain.html

You all also see the trough that was over southern California lifting more northeast than easterly, right? Deamplification of this trough would mean a more western track I feel.
Link for Cuban Radar for those interested.

CubaRadar
2073. NEwxguy
hey,tampa,had a great time this weekend,except for lack of sunshine,but got to see the world champions, and got out of there before noel.
2066. jtn 9:58 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
6Z models.....HWRF, GFS and UKmet have ALL shifted slightly east....Gfdl takes storm much further east of florida than earlier.

Uh you should be looking for the 12z if there will be any shift you will see it there as it will have the aircraft info in the models.
2075. franck
Too much land interaction and shallow water.
2076. Hhunter
me thinks NHC will have to shift track west and issue warnings in the not to distant future. but, in their defense they only want to do this once. So, i understand why they hold off
NE, nice to see you back
2073. NEwxguy 10:01 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
hey,tampa,had a great time this weekend,except for lack of sunshine,but got to see the world champions, and got out of there before noel.

Not to pimp the city, but wow what a great place to live huh......
2079. guygee
2052. lennit 1:53 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
"wow he is looking very disorganized now.LLC may expose soon.. unless midlevel center just off the coast forms a new one"

Agreed lennit, the LLC looks very disorganized on the visible loops with 3-4 competing vortices from north of Cuba to inland to between Cuba and Jamaica. The broad disorganized LLC is on the very edge of the deep convection if not outside of it. I have to wonder if the upper-level support will hold much longer.

Maybe the models are latching on more to the mid-levels where the deep convection remains, and the naked swirl will emerge today.
2080. nash28
Ok, I am back. To expand on what JP said, a SW move would do wonders in ripping this thing to shreds.
I agree Adrian! The LLC is heading in the general direction of the Caribbean but, should reform closer to the convection. That seems to be the calling card of NOEL.
2082. icmoore
Neverpanic, thanks for the cuban radar link!
2084. Hhunter
franck me thinks you may be wishcasting the systems death. But, i think it will live and hit as a cat 1 hurricane. Happy Halloween, i will work and read for awhile.
Good Morning,

Noels direction!!!!!!!............Its really difficult to say........Because he is so close to land or over land, he hasnt intensified much so he is not that vertical to be pushed by the upper level winds to the east. The bottom line is .........The stronger he gets the more chance of him going out to sea.......the weaker the better chance of him sticking around and eventually hitting florida.........wait and see..........

Right now....Noel appears to be not moving a whole lot over Cuba......There is a possibility that the trough could blow by and miss him completely and that is not what the NHC wants to see...........
Man that high is pressing west!
2087. SEFL
"They can't just willy nilly come out and change the track, they follow the trends. if they changed the track everytime they saw the storm not doing exactly what was predicted, the thing would be like a windshield wiper, back and forth every 15 minutes."

Then they would look like this blog!!!! :)
Is the motion still west??
I'm not gonna relax until Noel is North of 26 in the Atlantic.
2090. NEwxguy
2078. TampaSpin 2:04 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
2073. NEwxguy 10:01 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
hey,tampa,had a great time this weekend,except for lack of sunshine,but got to see the world champions, and got out of there before noel.

Not to pimp the city, but wow what a great place to live huh......

yeh,great place to be right now,and looking at the WV,I really don't see any quick curve for noel
CMC 850mb vorticity loop. hmmmm

Link
2085. weatherboyfsu 9:06 AM CDT on October 30, 2007
Good Morning,

Noels direction!!!!!!!............Its really difficult to say........Because he is so close to land or over land, he hasnt intensified much so he is not that vertical to be pushed by the upper level winds to the east. The bottom line is .........The stronger he gets the more chance of him going out to sea.......the weaker the better chance of him sticking around and eventually hitting florida.........wait and see..........

Right now....Noel appears to be not moving a whole lot over Cuba......There is a possibility that the trough could blow by and miss him completely and that is not what the NHC wants to see...........



Not much chance of that...the trof is over ETexas and not doing a great deal of moving...
Great look at the models though certain models are not updated!
May have a new center popping up south of The Exumas in the South Central Bahamas
2095. nash28
Ok, here's what we have to sum up...

1) Noel is moving generally WWD to WNWWD under the mid level ridge, which is still pushing WWD.

2) The shortwave trough is stalled over E Texas and has shown no signs of moving.

That's about it folks:-)
2096. Michfan
Yeah the 12z models will have the best handle on this storm. They are initializing terribly right now due to some of the changed conditions such as the High building in. Combine a better outlook with the aircraft information and we should have a much better picture.
Well, I'm back. We have early closures everywhere today; schools never opened, the university is shutting down at 11, and government offices by noon or 1 pm depending on what it is they actually do.

When I left this morning it was raining, and for most of the morning the skies have been overcast. Currently however the sun is shining. Winds have been steady from the ESE at about 20-25 mph, with higher gusts. The rain has been moving through sporadically, and I'm sure this will worsen as the day continues.

Most people are trying to get "last-minute" supplies. I haven't seen many people rushing to the lumber stores (the ones I passed didn't have full parking lots) but quite a number of people seemed to be picking up groceries prior to heading to work. I went in to buy a few bananas and ended up on a line for about 20 minutes. However, the line at the grocery store I passed later was out the door.
Remember, Cuba is only so wide. With plenty of inflow from both seas it will sustain itself pretty good. By the way, my name is Ray.
Not to mention, this is one tenacious storm!
2100. Hhunter
i will eat a little crow on the not over cuba thing, but in my opinion this strengthens the florida hit likely hood and it will still have enough time to be a minimal cat1


NOEL MOVING WESTWARD OVER EASTERN CUBA...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND
GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...RADAR DATA FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER CUBA NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF HOLGUIN CUBA...AND ABOUT 275 MILES...445
KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD EMERGE
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE
THE CENTER OF NOEL MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ALL OF THE
BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA
2101. Patrap
TS Noel IR FLoater Loop
Link
I just don't see any warnings needed, if Noel keeps going more west then this is delaying warnings for another 24 hour IMO if needed. I just told see a kicker from here either...

Link
2103. nash28
Morning Pat. How goes it today?
I don't know. If you remember Cuba's mountain range caused Ernesto to decline in strength in 2006. Noel is tracking way more east than Ernesto did so more open water is cause for a little concern. Of course Ernesto wasn't an end of the season storm either.
This link will be a great tool to track the movement of Noel. More Here
2106. Patrap
Just awake.
Sippin the go juice. Looking at the Loops.
Morning all, great to see everyone :~)

So the 12z Bam models initialized the center over Cuba?

She really looks kind of messy right now. Land interaction is giving her hell imvho.
Good morning - 23, what do you think this crazy storm is going to do?
I think this Cuba interaction will likely lead to become more of a subtropical storm over the next day or so... Satellite shows the organization with Noel decreasing.
2110. Hhunter
nice link..
2111. Patrap
TS Noel Visible Floater Loop Link
any chance of Noel going "poof"?
2108. zoomiami 10:17 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
Good morning - 23, what do you think this crazy storm is going to do?

Give me till the 11am advisory to see what the NHC is thinking...Iam waiting to see if they go ahead with the watches for us or not.
2114. nash28
Even with land interaction, as long as he doesn't dive SWWD into Cuba, the center should pop out over open waters.

The circulation is also very large, so I suspect it will take alot for it to spin down.
Wow, SJ!! Nice to see you!!
A good day to all and a better tomorrow.

Whatever you think, Don't never, Unless you will.
Ray Stevens; Singer, Sage
2117. IKE
Observed at: Guantanamo Bay NAS, CU
Elevation: 56 ft
[Heavy Rain Showers]
77 °F
Heavy Showers Rain
Humidity: 96%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 25 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 44 mph
Pressure: 29.74 in (Rising)
Visibility: 1.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 2500 ft
Overcast 7000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Mornin Mr Pat
Got to go, I'll be back with another take by 3 P.M.
Don't say I didn't tell you so!!!!!
Having a hard time locating a center...There could be multiple ones.
2121. Patrap
Morning bajaALemt...Noel hanging on
I've been waiting for NOEL to come into the Dupage visible as well Adrian. Love that site!
You too emt ☺

Although I've been seeing y'all, just lutking so I don't get distracted from my projects!
Dr. Masters must be studying hard this morning! LOL
Well, glad you came out from lurking to say hi :P
2126. Patrap
Puter Model Tracks..Link
Good to see ya thel! Last two weeks have been tough...I hate it when we give them away.
2128. NEwxguy
looking at the models this morning,some interesting tracks by the different models.
2129. Patrap
TS Noel IR Loop
Link

TS Noel WV Loop
Link
The LLC almost looks like its heading SouthWest
2131. jpritch
23, the center is reforming to the SE of where it was.
Hey, didn't the 8 a.m. centre fix show Noel over the Cuban landmass?
2134. Patrap
GOES-12 Big Pic Loop WV Tropical Storm Noel

Link
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EXPECTED
TO HOLD PSN THROUGH TUE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N AND TROPICAL
STORM NOEL MOVING NW ALONG BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN. FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER GULF OF MEXICO STARTS MOVING E WITHIN 24 HRS ABSORBS NOEL
AND CARRIES IT NE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MERGING GALE WARNING
WITH TROPICAL STORM WARNING BECOMES TRICKY TO DETERMINE EXTENT
OF ONE OR THE OTHER BUT RESULTING CONDITIONS ARE GRIM FOR
MARINERS.

Stay out of the water....
2137. nash28
What time is recon today? 18z again?
When it gets in radar view i'll be to get a good fix on were exactly the LLC is...Thats if it doesn't brake up into an open wave lol.

Radar Image with 5am Track.

Adrian? Seems to me you said something last night about a cuban landfall :)
lurking too....waiting for Stormkat's update.......NOEL going into the GOM....lol.....OZ
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...RADAR DATA FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER CUBA NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF HOLGUIN CUBA...AND ABOUT 275 MILES...445
KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

Wow. This is like, REALLY good news. Hopefully this will put paid to Hurricane Noel for good. If not, it may buy Bahamians a little more time to get prepped. That also explains the clearing weather we started getting about 1/2 hour ago . . .
could a new broad center be re-forming off the SE northern coast of Cuba??

If I had to guess, I would say the LLC is almost due west of the circle..... if so, its half way to the Caribbean!



This one is hard to figure out for sure!
CMC may have the right idea lol...
Interesting pic...look at the moisture coming out of the carribean now....



2136. jphurricane2006 10:28 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
and looking at the radar a SW movement looks to be happening, matter of fact it may be in the Caribbean in a few hours


JP i agree...that will certainly throw a wrinkle toward the NHC..........lol
Like I posted earlier this morning it is obvious that Noel is moving more towards the W or even WSW is the few frames, I still think its possible for the COC to emerge back into the NW Caribbean and move along the S coat of cuba before recurving ENE. I dont see this NNW/N/NE movement just yet.This is my opinion as I'm sure no expert but all my observations on this storm so far turned out fairly accuarte.
2147. IKE
Good luck NOEL...getting to Florida...shear is from 50-70 knots....

Link
2148. NEwxguy
tampa pic didn't show up
2149. nash28
That would throw a wrinkle in everyone's outlook!
Geez. . . Stormkat was in the blog?? Well, wonders never cease . . .
2151. yamil20
in my opinion a new center is going to develop on the SE northern coast of cuba.
Hi John Stormjunkie good to see your still alive and kicking:)
My bad fixed it....lol
Zoom in on Cuba JP! You can see the center paralleling the South Central coast of Cuba heading west imo. An it's in trouble, may get decoupled. Looks to have another 6 hours over land, as well my opinion.
click on caribbean first then IRw/MB-Curve so you can see what looks to be what I believe the center over water over northern cuba.
Link
How would you like the responsibility to make a call on this for the 1100 update.....The NHC staff continue to earn their salaries!!
.
2158. MamaEri
Hi bloggers,

I've been lurking a few months now, but I have never felt competent enough to comment. I noticed something this morning and wanted to get your feedback.

The NHC's coordinates for Noel's history is the following:

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 10/28/07 15.9N 71.5W 35 1003 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 10/28/07 16.2N 72.1W 35 1003 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 10/28/07 16.5N 72.5W 35 1003 Tropical Depression
18 GMT 10/28/07 16.5N 71.8W 50 996 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/28/07 16.8N 71.9W 60 996 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/29/07 17.1N 72.1W 60 996 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/29/07 18.0N 72.3W 50 1002 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/29/07 19.9N 73.0W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/29/07 20.9N 74.2W 50 1001 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/30/07 21.2N 75.0W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/30/07 21.3N 76.0W 60 999 Tropical Storm

This morning's 8:00 am public advisory had the following statement :

Repeating the 800 am EDT position...21.0 N...76.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

Is that not a WSW movement?
Maybe a little south of due west.
2098. weathermensince5 9:12 AM CDT on October 30, 2007
Remember, Cuba is only so wide. With plenty of inflow from both seas it will sustain itself pretty good. By the way, my name is Ray.



Nice to meet you, Ray
Dont those infact a new LLC may already be developing just of the coast of cuba.Take a look at rainbow imagery and you can see thunderstorms flareing up just offshore.
Just had one of my guys call in from the field. He said he just heard on the radio that NOEL is coming right for us? West Palm here.
Supposed cold front will have a hard time digging Noel out of Cuban mountains
At 11 AM, winds have decreased to 45 mph.

The most surprising news is that they have not issued any watches or warnings for South Florida.
2165. nash28
11am- 21.1N 77.4W. Moving WWD at 12mph.
2166. IKE
11 AM

21.1N
77.4W

Winds down to 45 MPH.

DIE NOEL!
2167. NRAamy


"Stupid Noel...gettin' way more attention than I ever did...maybe next time I'll hack up a hair ball on Miami...that should get me some respect..."
Not forcasted to become a hurricane any longer per the 11am advisory!South florida out of the cone!
2169. Michfan
By the 11am advisory i think the NHC will.
2170. nash28
Noel is not likely to die...

Weaken a little? Yes. Die? Not likely.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
I think the de-coupling is in progress...
LLC moving west, possibly even wsw while mid-level center is moving along the north coast of Cuba... If that is the case, it could go "poof"...

But I've been wrong b4....

:)
2173. nash28
Ok, I give up on their reasoning....
Without new watches and warnings maybe the NHC thinks it will dissipate over Cuba. Waiting for the discussion......
2175. Michfan
Cuba isn't large enough to kill it and the circulation is so large that its able to pull in alot of moisture from the Carribean.
2176. sngalla
11 am adv...wind is down to 45 mph and no watches for South Florida yet.
2177. Patrap
Good news all around with the 11am .
Its not the "First" Noel at all.

LOL
Why doesn't the NWS issue a Trop Storm Watch for South Florida. The storm is less than a day away and, if it doesn't turn as perfectly as they forecast we get hit.

Don't they realize that alot of people are held captive by this storm , yet we can't do anything until an official Watch is put in place!!


This is totally irresponsible. If this storm decides to hit Florida, nobody will have time to prepare, because we can't take time off from work until a Watch is issued.
LOL Amy
2180. NEwxguy
All is right with world now,we have a tropical system to track and felix is back
Some cats don't get hairballs. Some tropical systems have a hard time getting out of Cuban mountains.
2183. PBG00
2168. hurricane23 2:41 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Not forcasted to become a hurricane any longer per the 11am advisory!South florida out of the cone!


WooHoo!! Halloween is back on! Now that is great news..
Hurricane23, check the time on the cone! They have not issued the new cone yet.
New pic 15 minutes old.
Too funny NRAamy!
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.
2188. IKE
From the NHC advisory....

"Noel is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr. A gradual
turn toward the northwest is forecast during the next 24 hours. On
this track...the center of Noel is expected to remain inland over
Cuba today and tonight
...but emerge off the northern coast of Cuba
by tomorrow.


Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.".........


Good luck surviving as a TS over land til tomorrow KNOLL.
As if someone could hang plywood right now? That would be a quick lesson in parasailing.
2184. cchsweatherman 10:45 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
Hurricane23, check the time on the cone! They have not issued the new cone yet.

Look up already posted!
2191. Patrap
Theres no immediate threat. Watches and warnings put in motion many things, EOC wise. Its not needed,nor neccesary at this time.
2192. NRAamy


"Bring on Noel! I'll open up a can of whoop ass on him!"
2193. PBG00
Hey Tomato..whats to prepare? It's just going to be a little rain and wind at this point. What would be irresponsible to to panic people for no reason.
2194. nash28
NHC still banking on the hard right turn...

We'll see.
New Blog up
Patrap is right. The NHC has a tough job when issuing watches and warnings. Why do so when they don't think the storm with hit Florida. Also there is only a slight chance this thing brings more than heavy rain to South Florida even if it does hit.
Gradient winds are probably nearing T.S. Force now. The rain wont add much damage.
Is Noel trying to move into the area of "least resistance" to the South of Cuba into the Caribbean with all that hostile shear to the North?.............Think that JP may be on to something....
Looks like Cuba may save the day again. I can't believe the radio would say it was coming right for us lol. Talk about hype.
They have been forecasting a nw or N turn for days and it hasn't happened. A Trop Storm WATCH is an appropriate statement given their inability to forecast with accuracy.

Does anyone remember Humberto!! The Gulf Stream waters are 84-86 degrees. Easily allowing development. At the current motion, this storm requires them to be 100% correct, with no deviation, for South Florida to be safe. Is anyone out there prepared to make that bet?
Ike,

Tropical storms have crossed Cuba and survived as tropical storms. Happens from time to time.
2203. guygee
From the visible band, a nice picture of the convergence cumulus bands outlining the exposed part of Noel's broad surface circulation (from 1431Z).

Good morning Floodman. How are you?

Wow, more then 2000 posts, when did we have that the last time in one blog? I won't make it through all of them.

The shear map looks quite bad for Noel, the forecast track brings him close to the 50 kts. Oh, btw. the 11 AM advisory is out, 4 min early :)
2205. guygee
185. TampaSpin 2:45 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
"New pic 15 minutes old."

Nice pic! :-)

Also while I was off cuttin' and pastin', NEW BLOG!