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Disorganized 96L Bringing Heavy Rains to Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:05 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

Heavy rain showers are sweeping through the Lesser Antilles Islands as a strong tropical wave (Invest 96L) heads west-northwestwards at about 15 - 20 mph through the islands. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed a pretty unimpressive system, with a broad, elongated surface circulation and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that had changed little in intensity or organization since Wednesday. The storm was poorly organized, with a clumpy appearance and just a few small low-level spiral bands. Radar loops from Barbados and Martinique showed only a slight amount of rotation in the radar echoes. An 8:37 pm EDT Wednesday pass from the ASCAT satellite showed top surface winds near 35 mph on the east side of 96L. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 96L has moistened its environment considerably since Wednesday, though some dry pockets persist in the vicinity, particularly to the west. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near 28°C, which favors development.


Figure 1. Radar image of 96L from 10:35 am EDT August 21, 2014. Image credit: Barbados Meteorological Services.

Forecast for 96L
Despite 96L's disorganized appearance on satellite imagery, the Thursday afternoon flight of the Hurricane Hunters is underway, but the earliest I would expect 96L to become a tropical depression would be Friday morning. The 0Z Thursday runs of our three most reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, had one model, the UKMET, predicting potential development into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm will pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday and Friday, bringing heavy rain showers and strong winds, which will also affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Dominican Republic Friday through Saturday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 6" with locally higher amounts are expected.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of 96L.

The circulation center of 96L has jumped considerably to the northwest over the past day, resulting in northward shifts in the expected track of the system from all of the major models. On Saturday, 96L may pass near or over the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, whose rugged terrain would likely disrupt the storm. By Sunday, 96L is expected to be near the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and both the GFS and UKMET models predict that 96L will be able to develop into a tropical depression by Sunday or Monday. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, though Sunday, then rise on Monday. With dry air expected to be in the region, wind shear would likely be able to drive the dry air into the circulation of 96L, keeping any development slow. A trough of low pressure is expected to be over the U.S. East Coast early next week, and the GFS and European models predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn 96L north and then northeast, keeping the storm away from the Southeast U.S. coast. However, long-range model forecasts of disturbances that haven't formed into a tropical depression yet are unreliable, and we should not be confident that 96L will miss the Mainland U.S. yet. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 50% and 70%, respectively.

Active in the Eastern Pacific
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Lowell became the 7th hurricane of season this morning, giving the Eastern Pacific 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes so far this year. Typically, the Eastern Pacific sees just 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 21. Lowell and and Tropical Storm Karina are expected to become entangled with each other early next week and die in the cool waters well to the west of Baja Mexico. The models have been consistently predicting that a another named storm (Marie) will form late this week from a tropical wave (Invest 92E) that crossed Central America on Monday that is moving parallel to the Mexican coast a few hundred miles offshore. NHC is giving 5-day odds of development of 90%. Current model runs show the storm staying well offshore and not affecting any land areas. Ocean temperatures in the waters just west of the Baja Peninsula are unusually warm---30°C (86°F), which is about 3°C (5°F) above average--so Marie will have plenty of heat energy available to power it. Satellite images are showing the the disturbance already has a pronounced spin to it and a growing area of heavy thunderstorms.

The Western Pacific remains quiet, with no new named storms expected to develop over the next five days.

There is a unique sunrise-to-sunset 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Tropical Storm Lowell from August 19 available from NOAA/NESDIS.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

will 2014 hurricane seasonbe the one? like 1992?
From previous blog.

Quoting 2496. LargoFl:
by this coming sunday..a coldfront is supposed to be coming down into north florida...perhaps this front will keep 96 from going northward and may slide across it westward?.....so many things can happen in the next 5 days..and probably all our current opinions will be wrong huh..mother nature is going to do what she wants..regardless of model runs lol.


Naa, this thing is OTS. A very odd setup this weekend in the southeast. A rare late summer "back-door" cold front is going to be responsible for the weakness that will provide an escape for 96-L. This is the reason for the sharp north to northeast steering that is going to occur. This is not a traditional west to east moving trough that usually recurves these CV systems.
I told ya'll I needed to make one more comment in order for Doc to make a blog!.

From the last blog.
Naga I hope the mets aren't showing the model run that will attract the most views..the HRWF model.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
I doubt the RECON will find anything more than a large trough with a few spots of 30kt winds in the scattered bands well north of the center.

Many were skeptical when the models show this invest moving north. I was a little bit doubtful of the Northern movement. Looks like the center reform or that the NE flank of convection became the dominant center. This solution actually favor this thing moving out to sea.
If that trough on the NAM verifies then a track OTS is possible.
We'll find out about recon in 4 minutes
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters
Quoting 7. SLU:

I doubt the RECON will find anything more than a large trough with a few spots of 30kt winds in the scattered bands well north of the center.


You never know,Remember Bertha. Even though I agree with you.Its really disorganized.
Quoting 9. StormTrackerScott:

If that trough on the NAM verifies then a track OTS is possible.


nam 12z 72 hrs out end run

Thanks Doc..

However, long-range model forecasts of disturbances that haven't formed into a tropical depression yet are unreliable, and we should not be confident that 96L will miss the Mainland U.S. yet.

the forecast still has a lot of uncertainty..
nice update dr m have a great day thanks
92E is beautiful.
Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

I told ya'll I needed to make one more comment in order for Doc to make a blog!.

From the last blog.
Naga I hope the mets aren't showing the model run that will attract the most views..the HRWF model.


This one?



:)
Raining on and off here in Antigua for the time being. Looking forward for the showers this weekend. Must transplant some trees today. A pleasant day to everyone!
Quoting 17. GatorWX:



This one?



:)



Yeah that one, lol. That would give anyone a nervous twitch.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters
Quoting 4. Chucktown:

Starting to see some hooks on tracks that may portend looping.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks Doc!

Quick poll: With the abrupt change in Spaghetti Models favoring a Northward turn, but the sudden western lurch 96L has gone on, which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to be true (at this point, just your best educated guess)?

A- 96L enters the GOM
B- A Florida landfall
C-96L is whisked out to sea
D- 96L? What is this storm you speak of?
Good morning, weathergeeks! :) Did Doc go on vacation? Otherwise, little worries. 96L is an open wave, and seems to be increasing fwd speed with little to moderate convection. There is dry air, and if it weren't for the anti-cyclone overhead, we'd probably have little concern.

Have a good day, all! :) Play nice. Hold the fort down and keep the gates closed!
Quoting 4. Chucktown:

From previous blog.

Quoting 2496. LargoFl:
by this coming sunday..a coldfront is supposed to be coming down into north florida...perhaps this front will keep 96 from going northward and may slide across it westward?.....so many things can happen in the next 5 days..and probably all our current opinions will be wrong huh..mother nature is going to do what she wants..regardless of model runs lol.


Naa, this thing is OTS. A very odd setup this weekend in the southeast. A rare late summer "back-door" cold front is going to be responsible for the weakness that will provide an escape for 96-L. This is the reason for the sharp north to northeast steering that is going to occur. This is not a traditional west to east moving trough that usually recurves these CV systems.
big fish storm
27. JRRP

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 51 min
@hurrtrackerapp yeah, i've seen that in UKMET's new ENDGAME model.

Quoting 17. GatorWX:



This one?



:)
Yeah.Sometimes the mets will show the model runs that have the most doom and gloom on them.
Quoting 13. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


nam 12z 72 hrs out end run




You can see the trough very well on not only the NAM, but on the GFS and EURO 500 mb analysis by Monday.

If I was a betting man, I would say the trough will be strong enough to take whatever becomes of 96L out to sea. But, this is the tropics, and situations with the models can change.
Go figure 96L looks less organized than 12 hours ago.

Quoting 19. ProgressivePulse:




Yeah that one, lol. That would give anyone a nervous twitch.


Somebody had to do it! lol
Quoting 13. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



nam 12z 72 hrs out end run





Is the HWRF picking up the low on the west coast of FL? Is that a trough split?


The air is a little more dry than ideal, but 96L should be able to keep it in check (assuming it can fire more convection).
TWC Tropical Expert (the one that yesterday said the system wouldn't go OTS) just said the weakness off the eastcoast WILL cause the system to go OTS.



I feel smart today. Doc confirmed what I had been thinking...Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then, lol

Thanks Dr. M.
Quoting 32. ProgressivePulse:




Is the HWRF picking up the low on the west coast of FL? Is that a trough split?
its sure picking up on something the other models arent..
anyone read that washington post article on mikes weather page....interesting reading for some.
Something is ill in the atlantic, dry stable air has been killing all in the tropics is impossible for any disturbance gets his act together until reach 70-75 west , since 2011 we are seeing this over and over again.... if this pattern continues this will be a repeat history.

Hurricane Igor (2010) is gaining in strenght in the Atlantic Ocean
Quoting 30. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Go figure 96L looks less organized than 12 hours ago.


if true this just might let him go more westward.
12Z GFS running now
Quoting 23. WIBadgerWeather:

Thanks Doc!

Quick poll: With the abrupt change in Spaghetti Models favoring a Northward turn, but the sudden western lurch 96L has gone on, which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to be true (at this point, just your best educated guess)?

A- 96L enters the GOM
B- A Florida landfall
C-96L is whisked out to sea
D- 96L? What is this storm you speak of?
as much as I myself dont want to see this happen im going with B
NOAA needs to update their surface analysis charts because they are showing our system in the Eastern GOM in 7 days.
Quoting 21. redwagon:
Quoting 4. Chucktown:

Starting to see some hooks on tracks that may portend looping.


Now, that's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. Back-door fronts are usually shallow and short lived. Like I said, this isn't your typical west to east, full latitude trough that will do the job. It is quite possible this could be an Ophelia repeat from 2005. I think it was a similiar setup.

Link
Quoting 41. LargoFl:

as much as I myself dont want to see this happen im going with B


I would bet on B
Morning CT. Was thinking about Ophelia just last night. 96 sure is moving along though; I'd think it would have to slow down some in order to get hung up and left behind no?
NHC's take on things today. They have 96 crossing over Hispaniola.

Lol, the GFS is flip flopping once again, keeping the invest in the Caribbean
Quoting 23. WIBadgerWeather:

Thanks Doc!

Quick poll: With the abrupt change in Spaghetti Models favoring a Northward turn, but the sudden western lurch 96L has gone on, which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to be true (at this point, just your best educated guess)?

A- 96L enters the GOM
B- A Florida landfall
C-96L is whisked out to sea
D- 96L? What is this storm you speak of?


Funny how the most logical CONUS landfall location gets left out of polls like these...
We got takeoff.
Quoting 40. ProgressivePulse:

12Z GFS running now
fish storm

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations


000
URNT15 KNHC 211537
AF303 01EEA INVEST HDOB 01 20140821

About to be wheels up......
Quoting 46. ProgressivePulse:
NHC's take on things today. They have 96 crossing over Hispaniola.



Yea, that was also issued at 1:39 AM this morning. It's old news and probably based on the 0 Z model runs, which were just starting to show the northern and eastern solution to 96.
Quoting 47. STORMW2014:

Lol, the GFS is flip flopping once again, keeping the invest in the Caribbean
no way!!! crazy invest here
NOAA day 6 map showing the system moving into the GOM. But these maps were made on Aug. 20th.
Quoting 53. hurricanes2018:

no way!!! crazy invest here


Keeping it very weak through 48 hrs
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:
Thanks Doc!

Quick poll: With the abrupt change in Spaghetti Models favoring a Northward turn, but the sudden western lurch 96L has gone on, which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to be true (at this point, just your best educated guess)?

A- 96L enters the GOM
B- A Florida landfall
C-96L is whisked out to sea
D- 96L? What is this storm you speak of?

B
Quoting 23. WIBadgerWeather:

Thanks Doc!

Quick poll: With the abrupt change in Spaghetti Models favoring a Northward turn, but the sudden western lurch 96L has gone on, which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to be true (at this point, just your best educated guess)?

A- 96L enters the GOM
B- A Florida landfall
C-96L is whisked out to sea
D- 96L? What is this storm you speak of?
I will go with E- 96L remains a disorganized piece of garbage and breaks up completely over or near the mountains of the Dom. Rep. and then whats left gets sucked out to sea. Sorry folks, but there's just too many factors working against this very weak system for it to have much of a chance to develop right now. So with that being said, we now turn our attention to the West Coast of Africa and wait for the next potential system to observe.
Quoting 45. StormJunkie:
Morning CT. Was thinking about Ophelia just last night. 96 sure is moving along though; I'd think it would have to slow down some in order to get hung up and left behind no?


Yea, and it does look more ragged than last night, which may shove it a bit further west for the short term, but this back door front is for real. At least it will drop our temps by early next week. We'll probably hit 100 today and tomorrow at NWS CHS.
12Z GFS 500MB through 48hrs

GFS looks like death crossing D.R/Haiti at 57 hours.
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:
Thanks Doc!

Quick poll: With the abrupt change in Spaghetti Models favoring a Northward turn, but the sudden western lurch 96L has gone on, which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to be true (at this point, just your best educated guess)?

A- 96L enters the GOM
B- A Florida landfall
C-96L is whisked out to sea
D- 96L? What is this storm you speak of?


C. I think trough is just too strong...

Quoting 53. hurricanes2018:

no way!!! crazy invest here


Keeping it weak through 48 hrs
What happens if it remains a wave?
GFS at 57 hours - where did it go?
Quoting STORMW2014:
Lol, the GFS is flip flopping once again, keeping the invest in the Caribbean

No surprise eventually the rest of models will follow

Anyway recon time
start to see the dry air killing them t.storms and rain..that why u do not see any heavy rain with this invest only light rain
Those who continue to use the met term "garbage".....

Maybe give it some thought.

Or maybe give us your "why it look's dat way expert synoptic view".

Thanx.



Quoting StormJunkie:


Funny how the most logical CONUS landfall location gets left out of polls like these...
LOL. We talked last night about this. I thought this was going to be a struggling system and it sure appears to be so far. My take now is that, if it remains this weak (which is possible), it will follow a similar path to ex94L as a TW. If it can finally get its act together and get to at least TS status, if will feel the ridge and go OTS, but not before it traverses the Bahamas, much like Bertha. The HWRF path isn't so out of the realm of possibility. I think the intensity is way over forecast, but a weak system could very well affect south Florida. The ultimate model winner will be, as usual, the ECMWF. If that starts consistently showing a stronger storm headed west then we may have a problem. So far, it's done a pretty good job.
GFS keeping the ridge strong through 54hrs
96L...Rain blessed rain! The cistern is our only source of water.
Quoting 70. ProgressivePulse:

GFS keeping the ridge strong through 54hrs


Looks like further west this run
73. 7544
well the sayin is dont go by models 5 days out so i that means the ots ones too right ?

looks like they will change once the hh send the data latter today .

but from here looks like 96L wants to head west today and might even slow down so ill wait for the 3 days window on looking on the models .

is the plane a go for today? tia
A weak system going over Hispaniola isn't good for it.
That's what the GFS is showing.
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, and it does look more ragged than last night, which may shove it a bit further west for the short term, but this back door front is for real. At least it will drop our temps by early next week. We'll probably hit 100 today and tomorrow at NWS CHS.
Regardless of what it does or doesn't do for 96L, I sure hope this is going to be a strong front with a slug of cool air for us. It's already 93 with a heat index of 107 in SE AL. Just going to get the mail almost kills me. :-)
usually august is really active for development of typhoons in the nw pacific but not so this yr. the lack of a monsoon and a weaker than expected el nino might be causing this. its the first time in 64 yrs of tracking there has not been a august typhoon that news came from the tawaian news service. i guess they dont count the epac one that traveled across the pacific
Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

I told ya'll I needed to make one more comment in order for Doc to make a blog!.

From the last blog.
Naga I hope the mets aren't showing the model run that will attract the most views..the HRWF model.


To be honest, I only caught the end of the forecasted red swirls of doom. I changed the channel to catch the Simpsons marathon before heading to campus. Usually the mets here are good at not hyping things too much, but the channel I watch has some new people around so we will see how that goes. :)
Looks like the GFS is dropping the trough idea this run. 500mb thru 69hrs.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
A weak system going over Hispaniola isn't good for it.
That's what the GFS is showing.
That's certainly a logical outcome given the condition of 96L today. Of course, if the system does start to improve, all the current tracks go out the window again. I'm afraid we are going to be doing some variation of this dance all weekend.
80. SLU
Quoting 38. stormchaser19:

Something is ill in the atlantic, dry stable air has been killing all in the tropics is impossible for any disturbance gets his act together until reach 70-75 west , since 2011 we are seeing this over and over again.... if this pattern continues this will be a repeat history.

Hurricane Igor (2010) is gaining in strenght in the Atlantic Ocean


I honestly miss those days. The MDR major hurricane is on the endangered species list.



81. 606
Based on the last visible loop one can observe at least three vortices. it looks like this system is going loco.
12z GFS at 90 hours - weak Low in the Bahamas moving mainly to the north.

Quoting 75. sar2401:
Regardless of what it does or doesn't do for 96L, I sure hope this is going to be a strong front with a slug of cool air for us It's already 93 with a heat index of 107 in SE AL. Just going to get the mail almost kills me. :-)


Actually, it has been a relativley mild summer here in Charleston. The hottest temp so far has been 97 on a few occasions. I don't think the back door front is going to make it all the way to Alabama. The best thing about this type of setup here in the Lowcountry is that our winds shift to the NE instead of SW, so a more marine flow takes over, even though water temps in the Atlantic are peaking in the low to mid 80s. Still beats the triple digit heat index for today and tomorrow.
New 12Z sfc charts
Atlantic high moving WSW
high over NE Florida coast moving W
another high stationary over Tennessee/NC state boarder

Hmm might just keep this thing going W
Quoting 68. sar2401:

LOL. We talked last night about this. I thought this was going to be a struggling system and it sure appears to be so far. My take now is that, if it remains this weak (which is possible), it will follow a similar path to ex94L as a TW. If it can finally get its act together and get to at least TS status, if will feel the ridge and go OTS, but not before it traverses the Bahamas, much like Bertha. The HWRF path isn't so out of the realm of possibility. I think the intensity is way over forecast, but a weak system could very well affect south Florida. The ultimate model winner will be, as usual, the ECMWF. If that starts consistently showing a stronger storm headed west then we may have a problem. So far, it's done a pretty good job.


I'm not sure what it's going to do sar, but all the chatter is that the front will dive deep enough to kick it out regardless of how strong it is. My point was, that based on the current information, the OBX is geographically the most likely location to be impacted by 96L as it stands right now. Even that seems unlikely though.
Quoting 77. Naga5000:



To be honest, I only caught the end of the forecasted red swirls of doom. I changed the channel to catch the Simpsons marathon before heading to campus. Usually the mets here are good at not hyping things too much, but the channel I watch has some new people around so we will see how that goes. :)
They need to take lessons from the old one.It's best to avoid mass panic at tis time.
Been lurking here for several years now and I check in as much as possible to keep up with whats going on with the tropics. Want to say thanks to all for the helpfull information given in this blog. One quick question and then back to lurking. Where did the Hurricane Hunters take off from and how long until they reach invest 96. Thanks!!!
Fresh ASCAT 96L
GFS also speeding things up a bit.
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters...
yesterdays rain here was .09.....
Quoting 63. gulfbreeze:

What happens if it remains a wave?
Then it will get pulled to the NE OTS to the Tropical Cyclone grave yard.
Quoting 65. wunderkidcayman:


No surprise eventually the rest of models will follow

Anyway recon time



Pick the needle up off the LP; there seems to be a skip.

No surprise, going to be moving WNW/NW from here on out unless it really slows down in the Bahamas and somehow manages to get stuck under a bridged ridge. That scenario seems unreasonable at the moment though.

Still no trough at 84hrs

There be 96L in the Bahamas in 87 hrs

Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT 96L


getting closer... wonder if recon finds llc will they not desegnate based on lack of thunderstorms?
Quoting 90. ProgressivePulse:

GFS also speeding things up a bit.


As has been the trend with the models and the reason it will not escape the trough and why the high won't be able to build back in over top of it.
Hello all! In the vein of do not take models seriously...
If I recall, the early models and 5-day cones for Wilma actually had a CONUS landfall in the New Orleans area! 24 hours later, these models shifted (correctly, unfortunately) over to Florida. Yes, this was 2005, and yes, our computer models are supposedly improved (not sure if the current GFS could be considered an improvement!). but we need to remember that in any case, whether it be a developed storm or a disorganized mess, weather is dynamic! Factors that might be seen on one day can shift without explanation another day! I mean, come on, how many times have you wished you were a meteorologist, knowing that you could be wrong almost 100% of the time and still not get fired! :)



Take notes, 96L.
Through 90 hours I don't see much change from the 06z GFS and the 12z GFS.
Quoting 26. ZacWeatherKidUK:

96L


96L is getting a little more disorganized the weak vorticity by 16N and 57W is being affect by stable dry air. Still has a long way to go. Friday might be the better day.
Oh and one more thing, I bet that at 2:PM the NHC goes from Red back down to Orange for the five day outlook for 96L. What do you guys think.
Quoting Articuno:



Take notes, 96L.
Looks to be organized.
GFS at 99 hours - low is moving north

I can describe this season so far in one word B-O-R-I-N-G
Now that is a big eye.

Maybe 96L will pull a Gustav and wait until it is already in the Caribbean to develop.
Looks like the GFS stalls 96L in the central Bahamas 84 thru 96
Quoting 92. HurriHistory:

Then it will get pulled to the NE OTS to the Tropical Cyclone grave yard.

I thought shallower, weaker systems don't feel the pull/weakness to the north as much. What happened to that principle??
GFS at 123 hours and the low is gone.
Thank You Dr.  Almost an identical prognosis in terms of general location as Bertha, post-brush with the Islands, with the exception of when an actual storm will be initialized..............Thus the unanswered question is whether we will actually have a storm or TD approaching Puerto Rico or a disorganized wave.  Now way to know that answer for another 48 hours or so.
Well it appears the arid and arduous Atlantic wants to claim another victim. Invest 96L is looking very terrible, but I guess time will tell the eventual outcome.

If there is one thing I have learned over the course of time is that model runs mean nothing unless we have an established system. Something is not quite right out there and until conditions change drastically, this season will struggle to reach 10 named storms, let alone a hurricane.

I'm sticking with my 10/3/1 prediction, but with each passing day, I am less confident. Somehow I feel 2015 may be a bit more of the same, and the next time we might see some at least normal activity is 2016.

It know it's too early to say this, but we might be at the end of the "multi-decadal active period" that began in 1995. I doubt there have been 3 dry years running back-to-back like this in any of these active cycles, so if next year looks anything like this, I think it's safe to say that the high activity levels we have become accustomed to might be over.


Gone are the days where even a relatively quiet season could do this...
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LOWELL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 122.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY...
BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.


new hurricane soon
Remains weak as it pulls northward on GFS.

HURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

The convective ring surrounding the large ragged eye of Lowell has
closed off over the past few hours, and the eye has warmed a little.
The initial intensity is set to 65 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB, making Lowell the seventh hurricane of
the eastern North Pacific season. Little change in intensity is
expected in the next 12 hours, but Lowell should begin to slowly
weaken after that time as it moves over progressively cooler waters
and into a drier and more stable airmass. Since Lowell is such a
large cyclone, it will likely take longer than average to spin
down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell becoming a post-tropical cyclone
with gale-force winds in 3 days and weakening to a remnant low
afterward.

The initial motion estimate remains 315/03. As a mid/upper-level
trough over southern California weakens and moves eastward, a
ridge will rebuild to the north and east of Lowell. This should
result in a faster northwestward motion for the next 3 days,
followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest as the cyclone
becomes a shallower system steered by the low-level ridge to the
north. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous
one, and is very close to the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 20.0N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



Anyone else see the about-to-be-naked swirl in there towards the last few frames?
Quoting 104. Sfloridacat5:

GFS at 99 hours - low is moving north



Interesting that a lot of these runs have consistently shown low pressure in the NE Gulf.
Quoting 114. Hurricane1216:

Remains weak as it pulls northward on GFS.




So it remains in the same "General" location for 2 days before it starts pulling N. Seems odd.
Quoting StormJunkie:


I'm not sure what it's going to do sar, but all the chatter is that the front will dive deep enough to kick it out regardless of how strong it is. My point was, that based on the current information, the OBX is geographically the most likely location to be impacted by 96L as it stands right now. Even that seems unlikely though.
Yes, I understood your point. The Outer Banks often get forgotten as an impact zone when it's been hit on a regular basis. I'm not convinced the front will dive deep enough to pick up 96L if it remains a wave, and especially if it goes over PR and Hispaniola directly. There may not be much left for it to matter in that case. Otherwise, I think it follows the ex94L path through the Florida Straits. If it starts to put on a show, then things will change significantly.
Quoting 103. HurricaneAndre:

Looks to be organized.By looking at that it looks like the COC could be around 11.8.



very disorganized
at 105 hours HWRF has 96 as a hurricane in the same spot as GFS over the bahamas..............
Quoting 121. chrisdscane:



very disorganized



I still feel like there are two centers, one NW and one SE.
Quoting 122. LargoFl:

at 105 hours HWRF has 96 as a hurricane in the same spot as GFS over the bahamas..............
lets see if this verifies
Quoting 118. ProgressivePulse:



So it remains in the same "General" location for 2 days before it starts pulling N. Seems odd.

Notice the High building in New England/Mid atlantic, 96L might get trapped underneath at 144 hours.
However, long-range model forecasts of disturbances that haven't formed into a tropical depression yet are unreliable, and we should not be confident that 96L will miss the Mainland U.S. yet. 

Same comments we were noting yesterday; forget the current model runs until we have a closed off circulation/TD whether that happens before reaching Puerto Rico or afterwards on the north side in the Bahamas or Florida Straights.

12 z gfs hr 72 end run
128. SLU
Broad circulation? How about NO CIRCULATION?

Why waste fuel on this?



Quoting HurriHistory:
Oh and one more thing, I bet that at 2:PM the NHC goes from Red back down to Orange for the five day outlook for 96L. What do you guys think.
That seems highly unlikely unless there's a complete collapse of the circulation. It's weak, but not that weak.
Seems like 96L has made that northward shift as much advertised by the models. Who wudda thunk
the atlantic appears to be in year 4 of producing joke systems.... just brutal.... come back next season guys
i dunno, gfs has it sitting over the bahama's tuesday,same a hrwf..later they differ............
upper low to the northwest of invest 96L maybe making invest 96L going more to the north that why the path is move to the north
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Maybe 96L will pull a Gustav and wait until it is already in the Caribbean to develop.

Yeah it might even pull off similar track but maybe hit E GOM instead of W and Central GOM
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ 2014082112/gfs_z500_mslp_atltropics_21.png

Much further west on this run with less toughing but still recurves. We need some recon data because the models are very erratic with this one.
Wow i think the P17
Quoting 123. redwagon:



I still feel like there are two centers, one NW and one SE.


it looks that the center to the NW east Guadalupe is becoming the main center. That was former p17.
Quoting 131. wunderweatherman123:

the atlantic appears to be in year 4 of producing joke systems.... just brutal.... come back next season guys
do you mean the year 2016!!
Quoting 135. Ricki13th:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs / 2014082112/gfs_z500_mslp_atltropics_21.png

Much further west on this run with less toughing but still recurves. We need some recon data because the models are very erratic with this one.


50 Miles by day 4 isn't much


Quoting 119. sar2401:

Yes, I understood your point. The Outer Banks often get forgotten as an impact zone when it's been hit on a regular basis. I'm not convinced the front will dive deep enough to pick up 96L if it it remains a wave, and especially if it goes over PR and Hispaniola directly. There may not be much left for it to matter in that case. Otherwise, I think it follows the ex94L path through the Florida Straits. If it starts to put on a show, then things will change significantly.


I'm sort of at a loss right now sar. Should that NW area take over and become a dominant center; is it possible that it keeps moving fast enough to get closer to the CONUS before feeling the trough? Or, in another scenario...It slows considerably in the Bahamas and far enough south that it does indeed get left behind by the trough.

Here's the 00z GFS at 132hrs



Here's the 06z at 126hrs



And the 12z at 120hrs



Notice the trend? Slightly further S each run and it seems that NE flow becomes weaker with each run. Backdoor front flattening out a little faster than expected?
12Z Nam at 84 hours............................................. ..............................
Quoting LargoFl:
at 105 hours HWRF has 96 as a hurricane in the same spot as GFS over the bahamas..............
Largo, the HWRF uses the same input as that of the GFS. It then applies its own set of algorithms. The HWRF just doesn't do well on very weak, disorganized systems without a well defined center. It looks like it's way overdeveloping this storm. It's also an outlier compared to all the other models. It has been developing a hurricane from this the last three runs when no other model has done so. The thing to watch is what the other models do. If they start to come around to the HWRF we might have something. Until then, this is a scary model that's being misused a lot out in the social media world today.
Hunters closing in.
Quoting 130. Drakoen:

Seems like 96L has made that northward shift as much advertised by the models. Who wudda thunk


No, no, no! It is clearly headed SSN by W.
This 96l may wait till it gets to the western side of the carribean. Looks like a piece of energy will track westward. Just a thought.
Although I don't know why I would think it's odd, Frances did nearly the same thing in the Bahamas
Quoting 109. opal92nwf:


I thought shallower, weaker systems don't feel the pull/weakness to the north as much. What happened to that principle??
That's true but I think 96L will split into two pieces the larger of the two being sucked out to sea and what's left will just dissipate over the Haiti and Cuba. If 96L were even a weak depression then yes, i would expect it to continue West into the Caribbean, but right now it looks like a big mess of garbage.
Quoting 141. sar2401:

Largo, the HWRF uses the same input as that of the GFS. It then applies its own set of algorithms. The HWRF just doesn't do well on very weak, disorganized systems without a well defined center. It looks like it's way overdeveloping this storm. It's also an outlier compared to all the other models. It has been developing a hurricane from this the last three runs when no other model has done so. The thing to watch is what the other models do. If they start to come around to the HWRF we might have something. Until then, this is a scary model that's being misused a lot out in the social media world today.
yes thats true sar but....gem also had it as a hurricane in the same spot a few days ago..so did the gfs a few days ago...something just doesnt jive with this storm..aw we have 5 days or more to watch this...who really knows what will happen huh...im hoping it comes close enogh to florida to kill this damn heatwave we're having whew.
Convection is starting to beef up again.

Quoting 136. HuracandelCaribe:

Wow i think the P17

it looks that the center to the NW east Guadalupe is becoming the main center. That was former p17.


I think it's about to split back apart, Nrn pouch goes N, SErn pouch tracks West.
SAL is just about gone.
There's plenty moisture available in the MDR.
All we need is a storm.
Who's in charge around here ?
Quoting 139. StormJunkie:





I'm sort of at a loss right now sar. Should that NW area take over and become a dominant center; is it possible that it keeps moving fast enough to get closer to the CONUS before feeling the trough? Or, in another scenario...It slows considerably in the Bahamas and far enough south that it does indeed get left behind by the trough.

Here's the 00z GFS at 132hrs



Here's the 06z at 126hrs



And the 12z at 120hrs



Notice the trend? Slightly further S each run and it seems that NE flow becomes weaker with each run. Backdoor front flattening out a little faster than expected?


Good observation, which is why I still think it's possible for the models to come back west.
If one looks closely at the last frame. you can see 96 is indeed becoming better organized. Now further away from the ITCZ and feeling the centripetal affects of the Earth,s rotation, and a possible anticyclone to help it breathe, we will soon have a named system..jmo.



Still a weakness but its closing quick
Looks like a non tasked data mission is in the air too.
Quoting 150. pottery:

SAL is just about gone.
There's plenty moisture available in the MDR.
All we need is a storm.
Who's in charge around here ?
I am working on it these things take some time man

happy b day on sat too ya


upper low to the northwest of invest 96L maybe making invest 96L going more to the north that why the path is move to the north ....look at the dry air moving southwest maybe going to hit invest 96L SOON

157. 7544
keep an eye on the high ! the next few days that will tell the story .
Good timing for the Hunters to go it as there has been a little convective burst in the last hour or so around 60W-17N but they are not going to find anything close to a well defined circulation at this time. It has a long way to go but persistent convection will help generate a more robust moisture envelope for the eventual core:





Quoting StormJunkie:




I'm sort of at a loss right now sar. Should that NW area take over and become a dominant center; is it possible that it keeps moving fast enough to get closer to the CONUS before feeling the trough? Or, in another scenario...It slows considerably in the Bahamas and far enough south that it does indeed get left behind by the trough.

Here's the 00z GFS at 132hrs



Here's the 06z at 126hrs



And the 12z at 120hrs



Notice the trend? Slightly further S each run and it seems that NE flow becomes weaker with each run. Backdoor front flattening out a little faster than expected?
That's my assumption. It remains weak and gets weaker after getting pummeled by the big islands. It then drifts off to the Bahamas, and a combination of system weakness and a flattening trough means it sits and sulks somewhere in the Bahamas. I have no idea what happens after that. If it can organize and get stronger, which is looking more unlikely with each passing hour, then it does get carried off, even if the trough is weaker than forecast. With the exception of a major hurricane in Florida, there are still a lot of realistic alternative scenarios.

I really, really hate these kinds of storms. I miss the days when we debated about a storm being something like a cat 1 or cat 2. Sitting here and debating if this swirl or that swirl is dominant just isn't very intellectually stimulating. :-)
Evaporation, wind shear, and that's all she wrote for 96L.
Quoting 147. LargoFl:

yes thats true sar but....gem also had it as a hurricane in the same spot a few days ago..so did the gfs a few days ago...something just doesnt jive with this storm..aw we have 5 days or more to watch this...who really knows what will happen huh...im hoping it comes close enogh to florida to kill this damn heatwave we're having whew.

Largo if this is just off the Coast East of FL it will cause sinking air over the state it won't cool off much and we might not get any rain either.
Quoting 106. TimSoCal:

Now that is a big eye.


That could end up being annular..At the risk of using the term to often, but it does sorta resemble a hurricane with those type of characteristics.
Link


NHC wind forecast shifted west aswell
Quoting 160. BayFog:

Evaporation, wind shear, and that's all she wrote for 96L.
I cannot believe folks are writing this off.
From looking at the past few runs of the GFS and last 2 of the Euro.... 96L will split when it gets to Hispaniola. The axis and LL energy of the wave will move W towards Jamaica by Sunday while the top 1/2 of the wave closes in the southern Bahamas just ne of Cuba. The Euro has also hinted at this. Now timing and strength of the trough comes into play Sunday-Monday. We have seen the GFS slow down it's movement the last few runs N and out to sea cause it's showing a weaker system not feeling the full affect of the trough. Ridging builds in Tuesday but still N of 30N thus not giving much movement of this back west (yet). This is still 5 days out and things will change. We will have a better idea by the 0z GFS tonight and into Friday. The near term of this being in the SE-S bahamas in 3 days looks good, but it's hard to say if this will be more than a weak LLC or TS. This is still 24hrs away from us knowing if this has a "chance" to affect the east coast or not.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good timing for the Hunters to go it as there has been a little convective burst in the last hour or so around 60W-17N but they are not going find anything close to a well defined circulation at this time. It has a long way to go but persistent convection will help generate a more robust moisture envelope for the eventual core:





I'd point out that we're seeing a reversed max/min thing again. 96L got steadily weaker in the time leading up to DMAX and will probably look at least a little better in the time leading up to DMIN. This has been the pattern for tropical systems since 2013, and it hasn't led to the normal types of development we've seen in the past. I don't know what's causing it, but I think it's a big deal for storm development.
167. JRRP
16N
57W
Quoting 135. Ricki13th:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs / 2014082112/gfs_z500_mslp_atltropics_21.png

Much further west on this run with less toughing but still recurves. We need some recon data because the models are very erratic with this one.
same thing its still going out to sea
Quoting 153. chrisdscane:



Still a weakness but its closing quick


That weakness should open a little more over the next couple of days as the front moves through. Then the high should start to build back some as the front flattens out.
If I had to guess, the current axis of the wave is located around 60W; the related question is where the Hunters might be able to identify the start of a lower level COC and whether it is higher or lower in longitude, or further to the East of 60W.  Hard to tell in the absence of real-time recon from the storm. 
Quoting 164. hydrus:

I cannot believe folks are writing this off.
i am. have you seen the last 4 season including this one? when something looks like its going to do something, it fizzles. models were very excited. now they show a weak TS at best. we NEED el nino this winter for the 2015 season. Sick of watching these waves choke on stable air



Went from a hurricane in the gulf, to a tropical storm over florida , now its forecasted to be weak and OTS man is this depressing
Quoting chrisdscane:
Link


NHC wind forecast shifted west aswell
I just see trade winds. Why and how would winds shift west?
Quoting 143. StormJunkie:


No, no, no! It is clearly headed SSN by W.


Is that heading Somehow Sorta North by West??
One thing is pretty certain from the looks of the loops; it is booking along very fast and that is going to hinder vertical stacking unless it slows down.
Quoting 172. chrisdscane:




Went from a hurricane in the gulf, to a tropical storm over florida , now its forecasted to be weak and OTS man is this depressing
What is OTS.?
Kaput.
Quoting 164. hydrus:

I cannot believe folks are writing this off.
they will learn the hard way
Comparing the 06Z to the 12z GFS they are very similar but the 12z shows a weaker system in the Bahamas and it goes just a little bit further west.
It's not much, but there was a tiny (very tiny) shift in the track to the west.

The tiny shift to the west is most likely due to the Low being so weak (almost dissipating over the Bahamas ).

I am more convinved SE CONUS need not worry about 96L.

I would not let my guard down though.
Quoting 172. chrisdscane:




Went from a hurricane in the gulf, to a tropical storm over florida , now its forecasted to be weak and OTS man is this depressing



That's why I preach to you guys to not look past 3 days when something isn't there yet


Lowell really is a nice-looking cat-1.

Quoting 172. chrisdscane:




Went from a hurricane in the gulf, to a tropical storm over florida , now its forecasted to be weak and OTS man is this depressing


Lol. Indeed, wish we could just fast forward to winter to start tracking some winter storms. This season has been an absolute struggle.
Did anyone else notice the non-tasked mission in the Gulf? Sampling the environment in the Gulf wonder why...
Quoting 41. LargoFl:

as much as I myself dont want to see this happen im going with B


Yeah, I'm gonna have to go with B as well, though it means us getting hit. I wouldn't discount this storm yet, I seem to remember pretty decent tropical storms coming from stuff a lot less organized than this.
Quoting sporteguy03:

Largo if this is just off the Coast East of FL it will cause sinking air over the state it won't cool off much and we might not get any rain either.
That's very true. The worst thing for Florida is to be on the weak side of a storm more or less stationary over the Bahamas. Lots of heat and dry air and not much else. That's where Alabama usually ends up with tropical storms passing to the east, and it has produced some of the most miserable weather we've had.
Lowell has one of the biggest eyes I've ever seen (which hasn't been long). About 110mi in diameter.
Quoting 171. wunderweatherman123:

i am. have you seen the last 4 season including this one? when something looks like its going to do something, it fizzles. models were very excited. now they show a weak TS at best. we NEED el nino this winter for the 2015 season. Sick of watching these waves choke on stable air
Some people on this blog should look at the current and past seasons as a learning process, and not be discouraged every time a system does not form. There will be plenty of hurricanes to track in the future.
Hurricane Lowell has been moving north north east, and not to the northwest as forecast. It's outflow is sharply defined, with the appearance of a cold front as it moves across Baja, Sonora and Arizona, feeding into a system that's moving into the Rockies.
Quoting 176. hydrus:

What is OTS.?


Out to sea.
96L is actually in a very good place SAL wise and generating more moisture.  Dry air may not be as much of an issue with this one than with Bertha; probably going to boil down to relative shear and the forward speed.............Just my personal opinion.
Quoting 164. hydrus:

I cannot believe folks are writing this off.


I am definitely not writing this storm off, but I do see where they might be coming from. It doesn't look great at the moment, and it has declined from what it was yesterday. However, I think it will have some sort of rapid strengthening (probably not RI) and come together quickly. It has a good spin in place, we just need some t-storms to pop.
193. 7544
dont look now but the gem goes west again to miami lol maybe some one can post it .
Quoting 186. sar2401:

That's very true. The worst thing for Florida is to be on the weak side of a storm more or less stationary over the Bahamas. Lots of heat and dry air and not much else. That's where Alabama usually ends up with tropical storms passing to the east, and it has produced some of the most miserable weather we've had.
Nature of the beast...
Quoting hydrus:
What is OTS.?

Out to sea
Quoting 169. StormJunkie:



That weakness should open a little more over the next couple of days as the front moves through. Then the high should start to build back some as the front flattens out.


OK...but...Will this scenario serve to enhance ridge humping?
Quoting 159. sar2401:

That's my assumption. It remains weak and gets weaker after getting pummeled by the big islands. It then drifts off to the Bahamas, and a combination of system weakness and a flattening trough means it sits and sulks somewhere in the Bahamas. I have no idea what happens after that. If it can organize and get stronger, which is looking more unlikely with each passing hour, then it does get carried off, even if the trough is weaker than forecast. With the exception of a major hurricane in Florida, there are still a lot of realistic alternative scenarios.

I really, really hate these kinds of storms. I miss the days when we debated about a storm being something like a cat 1 or cat 2. Sitting here and debating if this swirl or that swirl is dominant just isn't very intellectually stimulating. :-)


Well, it's possible that a week from now we are still sitting here debating if it has a llc, and if the 2nd trough will get it or if the high will push it back before the trough gets here...Good times right? lol.

192hrs...

Quoting hydrus:
What is OTS.?
Out To Sea
Quoting 176. hydrus:

What is OTS.?


I believe OTS is Out To Sea?
Quoting 192. WIBadgerWeather:



I am definitely not writing this storm off, but I do see where they might be coming from. It doesn't look great at the moment, and it has declined from what it was yesterday. However, I think it will have some sort of rapid strengthening (probably not RI) and come together quickly. It has a good spin in place, we just need some t-storms to pop.
Its been said repeatedly by many who know tropical weather that this would and is occurring. This system still has the potential to be a serious threat to land.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Well, it's possible that a week from now we are still sitting here debating if it has a llc, and if the 2nd trough will get it or if the high will push it back before the trough gets here...Good times right? lol.

192hrs...

I swear, if that happens, I'm going to take up knitting and just watch cute kitten videos on FB...
Quoting 30. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Go figure 96L looks less organized than 12 hours ago.




lol indeed it does, hopefully it will poof out or just stay the way it through the extended, just for the sake of the blog reaction here.
Besides, I hope it stays weak simply because the probability of it moving more west into the gulf would be higher, thus spreading deeper moisture and a subsequent east flow into my area.

If it gets stronger, its another period of dry subsidence and NW flow here leading to more well below normal thunderstorm coverage, which we've seen more times than I can count here this summer from low pressure presence off the east coast of Florida.
Thanks to those who answered my question..Happens to me quite a bit not knowing what these abbreviations are.
So far all the models are shifting west.

CMC
Quoting presslord:


OK...but...Will this scenario serve to enhance ridge humping?
LOL. Only if you wear a dress. :-) How are you doing, Press?
Quoting hydrus:
Thanks to those who answered my question..Happens to me quite a bit not knowing what these abbreviations are.
Yeah, me too. It seems people are always inventing new ones too.
Quoting 202. Jedkins01:



lol, hopefully it will poof out, just for the sake of the blog reaction here
Works for me..I get a kick out of watching there demise anyway. When they do form however, I study them.
Or...Did I just put someone's foot in my mouth?
192hrs only talking about invest 96L I do not see anymore tropical storms or hurricane for the next 10 days
Will check back this pm.  If this disturbance is able to reach TD/TS status before the Greater Antilles, or maintain as such just to the North, I am thinking that it will have a very good chance at hurricane status, unlike Bertha, because of the favorable shear North of the Greater Antilles and welcoming SST's but that is still a few days away.................As to potential track, I don;t have a clue.
CMC is very similar to the HWRF in showing a rapidly developing hurricane and sends it into FL.

A low could be forming where the heavy band is, near 60W. It has a bow arc shape indicating some sort of circulation center in the area. The eastern side is ingesting some dry air ATM. Recon should help clarity things.
Very complicated steering at 72hrs which really decides whether 96L heads for FL or OTS.

Intensifying hurricane


Given the large envelope of this system - appears to span roughly 600-800 miles across - having a wave fracture occur does seem good possibility.
Quoting 204. StormTrackerScott:

So far all the models are shifting west.

CMC

now going back to the west now!! I see the big high to the north of invest 96L TO
Quoting 204. StormTrackerScott:
So far all the models are shifting west.

CMC


It's always like that-isn't it Scott?
Quoting 212. StormTrackerScott:

CMC is very similar to the HWRF in showing a rapidly developing hurricane and sends it into FL.




But its the CMC, therefore, nobody should give a rats buttocks what the projection is. If the CMC serves any purpose, its a good way of showing the least likely solution.
Quoting 217. rmbjoe1954:



It's always like that-isn't it Scott?


Models seem to be joining the HWRF & UKMET now.

And then into the GULF.

Quoting 218. Jedkins01:



But its the CMC, therefore, nobody should give a rats buttocks what the projection is. If the CMC serves any purpose, its a good way of showing the least likely solution.


UKMET & HWRF too. NHC likes the UKMET and the UKMET never waivered on its track unlike the other models.
Quoting BayFog:
Hurricane Lowell has been moving north north east, and not to the northwest as forecast. It's outflow is sharply defined, with the appearance of a cold front as it moves across Baja, Sonora and Arizona, feeding into a system that's moving into the Rockies.
Lowell is nearly stationary now and looks like its drifting a little east. That outflow stack pouring out will certainly aid the monsoon and the front. I think it does start moving a little faster NW over the next 12-24 hours though. I watched these systems for so many years when I lived in California, and my hopes were almost always dashed that a system would continue NE.
Quoting 215. DocNDswamp:

Given the large envelope of this system - appears to span roughly 600-800 miles across - having a wave fracture occur does seem good possibility.



Good to see ya Doc. Hope all is well.
CMC/GEM has two storms hurricane that crosses Florida and landfalls in NW Florida and either a TD or TS in the W GOM
Quoting 217. rmbjoe1954:



It's always like that-isn't it Scott?

A shift west would be consistent with a wave headed for the Pacific. Once there, then you'll get the spin up you're hoping for. :)
Quoting 226. wunderkidcayman:

CMC/GEM has two storms hurricane that crosses Florida and landfalls in NW Florida and either a TD or TS in the W GOM
If I had to guess, if recon is going to find any kind of center with 96L, it'd likely be here.

Quoting 221. StormTrackerScott:

And then into the GULF.


The CMC is being well...The CMC.Which is Constantly Making Cataclysms when it comes to tropical cyclones.Now if the Euro whips back west then I'm sure it'll get more peoples attention.
Does anyone else see a secondary center NW of the main center?
windshield wipers are on...back and forth....no recon data yet and too many unknowns....no one should write this off yet. Just wait and see. Good time to check supplies and review your plans. We've been lucky for a while. Hopefully this luck will hold out a little longer.
20" of rain! Yikes!

Quoting 196. presslord:



OK...but...Will this scenario serve to enhance ridge humping?


I don't know, but my toes are tingling. Something is going to happen.
Finding some strong winds in the NE

35.7 knots (~ 41.1 mph)
Tropical Storm
Quoting 224. sar2401:

Lowell is nearly stationary now and looks like its drifting a little east. That outflow stack pouring out will certainly aid the monsoon and the front. I think it does start moving a little faster NW over the next 12-24 hours though. I watched these systems for so many years when I lived in California, and my hopes were almost always dashed that a system would continue NE.

You're right, and I am surprised about the current jog. If it were to continue, SSTs rise. Today's charts actually show a pool of 31 C water on the WEST coast of lower Baja. Never seen that before.
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

The CMC is being well...The CMC.Which is Constantly Making Cataclysms when it comes to tropical cyclones.Now if the Euro whips back west then I'm sure it'll get more peoples attention.


We already have 2 other models that are west and one is a heavy hitter called the UKMET.
96L looks more organized to me. The close up zoom in the visible loop shows the lower level circulation becoming more consolidated and there seems to be some banding features. It's just lacking convection at the moment but I would say it's overall structure at the surface is better than yesterday.
Quoting 218. Jedkins01:



But its the CMC, therefore, nobody should give a rats buttocks what the projection is. If the CMC serves any purpose, its a good way of showing the least likely solution.

Honestly, I may have to agree with Scott to some extent here. The GEM may suck at intensity forecast, but it has had a decent record with forecast track and has been on top of most of the big shifts in forecast track. If we see the GFS and other models shift back west at the 18z and 0z I'd probably give the HWRF and GEM some props. The GFS has been following most of the GEM's track shifts the past few days so It'll be interesting to see if the GFS follows up and comes back to a Florida landfall like before.


Though it isn't an accurate model, I actually tend to agree with the 12z GEM in track and intensity.

It doesn't develop it until after interaction with Hispanoila.
Oh and by the way the GFS shifted west as well but not as far as the CMC.
Quoting 209. presslord:

Or...Did I just put someone's foot in my mouth?
well I could put a foot somewhere but I pass for now

how are ya press good to see ya stranger
Quoting 219. StormTrackerScott:



Models seem to be joining the HWRF & UKMET now.



We will have to wait till those 12z run of hwrf and ukmet to come out before saying it agrees but yeah the trend now is a slower system in the Bahamas and a stronger high to its north.
Quoting BayFog:

You're right, and I am surprised about the current jog. If it were to continue, SSTs rise. Today's charts actually show a pool of 31 C water on the WEST coast of lower Baja. Never seen that before.
It's the highest temperatures I've seen off Baja as well. The one thing to remember is that there's a killer thermocline out there. I haven't looked at the 50 meter temperatures but I'd bet they are still pretty chilly. If Lowell does move further east toward Baja, it will help Lowell for a little while until it starts to churn up the cooler water. Then it goes poof.
Quoting 239. TylerStanfield:


Honestly, I may have to agree with Scott to some extent here. The GEM may suck at intensity forecast, but it has had a decent record with forecast track and has been on top of most of the big shifts in forecast track. If we see the GFS and other models shift back west at the 18z and 0z I'd probably give the HWRF and GEM some props. The GFS has been following most of the GEM's track shifts the past few days so It'll be interesting to see if the GFS follows up and comes back to a Florida landfall like before.

That forecast map right there is exactly why I would be concerned.
Quoting 235. ProgressivePulse:

Finding some strong winds in the NE

35.7 knots (~ 41.1 mph)
Tropical Storm

They're still in the northwestern side of the storm.
Time: 16:55:00Z
Coordinates: 17.5833N 60.4W
Acft. Static Air Press: 671.1 mb (~ 19.82 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,519 meters (~ 11,545 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.7 mb (~ 29.85 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 106° at 28 knots (From the ESE at ~ 32.2 mph)
Air Temp: 7.8°C (~ 46.0°F)
Dew Pt: 6.7°C (~ 44.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Time: 16:55:30Z
Coordinates: 17.5833N 60.3667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 672.4 mb (~ 19.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,507 meters (~ 11,506 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1016.1 mb (~ 30.01 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 97° at 21 knots (From the E at ~ 24.1 mph)
Air Temp: 7.9°C* (~ 46.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data



And if 96L does end up having a closed circulation, and becomes a tropical cyclone there isn't enough wind barbs of Tropical storm force to support an immediate upgrade to TS Cristobal. This is still likely a 35 Mph invest.
Quoting 239. TylerStanfield:


Honestly, I may have to agree with Scott to some extent here. The GEM may suck at intensity forecast, but it has had a decent record with forecast track and has been on top of most of the big shifts in forecast track. If we see the GFS and other models shift back west at the 18z and 0z I'd probably give the HWRF and GEM some props. The GFS has been following most of the GEM's track shifts the past few days so It'll be interesting to see if the GFS follows up and comes back to a Florida landfall like before.



Interaction with Hispaniola is going to be key as the models the are going west bring 96L straight across Hispaniola thus weakening the 500mb vort thus missing the trough to the north as the 500mb would be much weaker. Hopefully this makes sense.
I'll be back next season. I have seen enough of the 2014 season and all I can say is this is another 2013 with fewer named storms. EL NINO please form this winter so 2015 season could be like seasons of old.
248. N3EG
OMG!!! Lowell is headed straight for Los Angeles! Dooooom!

Just wanted to be the first West Coast doomcaster/wishcaster. Even El Nino couldn't bring a hurricane to California.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Good to see ya Doc. Hope all is well.


Howdy SJ.
Thanks, and back atcha, all good... enjoying the quiet season so far here, trying keep it that way. LOL, actually if 96L would split / stay weak, nearly all the previous model runs track projections would be correct... ;)
I do think that a track like what the CMC is showing is possible if the trough doesn't catch 96L.Not sure about intensity however...
2328. washingtonian115
12:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

2 things could happen...this could be a Bertha repeat or this could miss the trough sit and spin in the Bahama's intensify and hit Florida and continue into the eastern gulf.I hope for Baha's sake this is Bertha part two.

I hope the NHC doesn't cancel recon.

Quoting 2332. washingtonian115:

I just made a post of something similar!.I'm not saying this will be katrina part (no way).But if 96L misses the trough it could sit and spin in the Bahama's and then continue westward over Florida and end up in the eastern Gulf.Just a possibility..
Anytime you have two models depicting the exact same outcome more credibility in the soliution is given.
No suggestion of a possible G-IV mission for Saturday in tomorrow's POD. This would concern me more if the UK Met wasn't the only op model showing landfall. If there was a bigger split in the op models, I'd think they'd want as much data as possible for the models and hand analysis.

That lonely, outlier Euro ensemble member that hits Beaumont/Port Arthur must be a monster based on how much it shows up the ensemble means. But what is that, 5 of 51 showing any US landfall?

Tiny shifts in the GFS and Canadian, the fat lady hasn't sung yet for the Gulf, but she is in her dressing room warming up, and she may sing again tomorrow for the rest of the US coast.

245. TylerStanfield
5:12 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

Thanks, I don't have google earth, that would help a lot.
What the hell LLC becoming visible movement NNE center 16.2N 57.2W
255. MahFL
The coc is clear to see.

Anyone in Houston see this a couple days ago? Apparently reported by hundreds of people, electrical phenomenon?

Quoting 243. sar2401:

It's the highest temperatures I've seen off Baja as well. The one thing to remember is that there's a killer thermocline out there. I haven't looked at the 50 meter temperatures but I'd bet they are still pretty chilly. If Lowell does move further east toward Baja, it will help Lowell for a little while until it starts to churn up the cooler water. Then it goes poof.

I agree. However, if it moves along at a fair clip, it can minimize the damage from the thinness of the warm layer. The other thing it might do is pull up a humongous deep moist layer from the Gulf in its southeast flow into SoCal. If placement and strength are right, this flow could reach the Sierra watersheds. Lotta hopeful ifs. Starting with whether it even moves coastward.
Quoting 246. StormTrackerScott:



Interaction with Hispaniola is going to be key as the models the are going west bring 96L straight across Hispaniola thus weakening the 500mb vort thus missing the trough to the north as the 500mb would be much weaker. Hopefully this makes sense.

I noticed that both Gem and Gfs both had high pressure over mid Atlantic and New England between 144-150 hours. It is my understanding a set-up like that favors a SE US hit.
Quoting 250. washingtonian115:

I do think that a track like what the CMC is showing is possible if the trough doesn't catch 96L.Not sure about intensity however...
2328. washingtonian115
12:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

2 things could happen...this could be a Bertha repeat or this could miss the trough sit and spin in the Bahama's intensify and hit Florida and continue into the eastern gulf.I hope for Baha's sake this is Bertha part two.

I hope the NHC doesn't cancel recon.

Quoting 2332. washingtonian115:

I just made a post of something similar!.I'm not saying this will be katrina part (no way).But if 96L misses the trough it could sit and spin in the Bahama's and then continue westward over Florida and end up in the eastern Gulf.Just a possibility..
A lot is riding on the strength and timing of the trough. One thing is certain in my mind, if the trough is strong and moving quick , the chances of strong high pressure building in behind it increase. That would mean a westward track , and good conditions for the system to strengthen.
Unless it's an old LLC that's getting thrown out

But looks like there maybe another forming SW near 15.5N 58.4W
Quoting 256. VAbeachhurricanes:

Anyone in Houston see this yesterday? Apparently reported by hundreds of people, electrical phenomenon?



water droplets?
One thing in the CMCs defense this time- a lot of time the Canadian generates a spurious cyclone close enough to an actual cyclone or invest that might develop such that the real cyclone's path is influenced by the bogus cyclone.

Not this run, anyway. Hence the fat lady warming up for the Gulf, but not yet called to the stage.
Looking North :


Looking SE...........



Quoting wunderkidcayman:
What the hell LLC becoming visible movement NNE center 16.2N 57.2W

Nope NNW -N
Still don't make no sense
Quoting 259. hydrus:

A lot is riding on the strength and timing of the trough. One thing is certain in my mind, if the trough is strong and moving quick , the chances of strong high pressure building in behind it increase. That would mean a westward track , and good conditions for the system to strengthen.
Yeah a pretty decent trough will be bringing me drier air and temps in the 70's.However a ridge will build back in and 80's will be returning.What ever weather i get will determine Florida's and the Gulf coast future :).
The Recon Aircraft checking out the system at the moment is it just a high altitude recon?
Quoting 248. N3EG:

OMG!!! Lowell is headed straight for Los Angeles! Dooooom!

Just wanted to be the first West Coast doomcaster/wishcaster. Even El Nino couldn't bring a hurricane to California.

Not AS a hurricane. Lesser forms of a tropical nature are possible and have happened. The main issue is always the cold water. Even with a warming climate or El Nino, the dynamics of upwelling will always be present.
Quoting 255. MahFL:

The coc is clear to see.



You would think... But there's no evidence to back up satellite presentation. Awaiting recon to see if we have some kind of circulation and how defined it is. Convective organization doesn't warrant an upgrade of this into a tropical cyclone, so if a surface circulation is present, we would then have to wait for convection to redevelop and at least become marginally organized before the NHC initiates advisories.

Quoting 267. Sfloridacat5:

The Recon Aircraft checking out the system at the moment is it just a high altitude recon?

No. They're cruising at 3,500 meters which is a reasonable enough altitude for surface investigation.
271. FOREX
TWC Hurricane expert said 96L is an open wave and may not even develop.
Rain!

Quoting 268. LargoFl:




Puts it right over me? o.e
Looks like they are dropping in now. Down to 958ft
Definitely interesting to see the CMC shifting back west. We'll see if the GFS 18z or 00z follows the suite. The rest of the 12z should be interesting for sure.
no comment........................................... ..................................
Quoting 256. VAbeachhurricanes:

Anyone in Houston see this a couple days ago? Apparently reported by hundreds of people, electrical phenomenon?


I took the below photo a few days ago on I-10 in the Lake Charles area. May have been car lights or something, but unsure.
Quoting 261. BayFog:


water droplets?


My first thought or light reflection, but apparently hundreds of people called in to report it.
Quoting 271. FOREX:

TWC Hurricane expert said 96L is an open wave and may not even develop.
I miss the good old days when TWC had real hurricane experts like john hope and steve Lyons
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks like they are dropping in now. Down to 958ft


Okay, I didn't scroll down the page.
Did you guys kill Levi's site?
Quoting 277. Hurricane1216:



I took the below photo a few days ago on I-10 in the Lake Charles area. May have been car lights or something, but unsure.



Here are some pics of the houston thing:



Hopefully the models will get a better handle of the system with the recon data.
Quoting 248. N3EG:

OMG!!! Lowell is headed straight for Los Angeles! Dooooom!

Just wanted to be the first West Coast doomcaster/wishcaster. Even El Nino couldn't bring a hurricane to California.

Which reminds me, there's actually a Wikipedia page entitled "California Hurricanes. I kid you not. Just try to challenge the title. I did years ago. Learned my lesson. Don't go up against a Wiki fanatic without a Wiki posse to back you up.
Recon nearing the core of the system.
Quoting 273. Articuno:



Puts it right over me? o.e
im sure all tracks will change over the next 5 days
Quoting TylerStanfield:

You would think... But there's no evidence to back up satellite presentation. Awaiting recon to see if we have some kind of circulation and how defined it is. Convective organization doesn't warrant an upgrade of this into a tropical cyclone, so if a surface circulation is present, we would then have to wait for convection to redevelop and at least become marginally organized before the NHC initiates advisories.


No. They're cruising at 3,500 meter which is a reasonable enough altitude for surface investigation.

Actually there s it's becoming naked although I think that it may be an old LLC and a new on is forming to the old LLCs SW
Visible center is near 16.2N 57.2W moving N-NNW

new one looks to be forming near 15.6N 58.2W
Quoting 265. wunderkidcayman:


Nope NNW -N
Still don't make no sense


Simmer down. It makes perfect sense. There really doesn't seem to be a consolidated llc right now. It seemed to start to form one last night, but that seems to be getting lost in the larger elongated circulation. Movement is in the general direction of the wave axis which is now tilted NW to SE.

Quoting 288. wunderkidcayman:>new one looks to be forming near 15.6N 58.2W

Fascinating that you would find a center location forming S and W...Would that by any chance influence track enough to put it in the Central Carib?
Quoting 281. TimSoCal:

Did you guys kill Levi's site?
too many hits i guess..just worked again for me
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
The Recon Aircraft checking out the system at the moment is it just a high altitude recon?



no 10,000 feet
12Z gem(cmc) model Back to its original track up florida..again today................
You know I didn't want people in the Tampa & Orlando area to feel left out so here you go.


Quoting 256. VAbeachhurricanes:

Anyone in Houston see this a couple days ago? Apparently reported by hundreds of people, electrical phenomenon?




It's a bouquet of helium balloons. I've seen it before
the 12z Navgem was on its way out to sea and thought about paying NY a visit and then said I was just scaring ya..

Quoting 284. Sfloridacat5:

Hopefully the models will get a better handle of the system with the recon data.



Recon is using Current data that isn't put into the models....Gulf stream will do it later, also even that doesn't change the models much
Quoting 289. StormJunkie:



Simmer down. It makes perfect sense. There really doesn't seem to be a consolidated llc right now. It seemed to start to form one last night, but that seems to be getting lost in the larger elongated circulation. Movement is in the general direction of the wave axis which is now tilted NW to SE.


agree
If the Hurricane Hunters can find a center and feed that Data into the models, the models will do a better job of giving us a better forecast. Once we see the NOAA Gulstreams going the next few days then they get even better with forecasting.

Only time will tell on this one!
Quoting 263. CaribBoy:

Looking North :


Looking SE...........





That looks amazing. I would love to live in the Caribbean, the crystal clear waters and the white sandy beaches :)
302. FOREX
Can we stop posting the GEM CMC if it is a garbage model for tropics.
Quoting 293. StormTrackerScott:

You know I didn't want people in the Tampa & Orlando area to feel left out so here you go.



you know scott..this is the very first time in many years..inside me i feel This time we are gonna get it..just a feeling but gee...glad im prepared and ready
Discussions of race, political ideology, religion or other non-tropical weather or climate related topics should not be discussed on the blog, and are violation of the Community Standards Policy.
It appears there is at least some sort of ill-defined circulation 96L. Recon is approaching the area and will investigate to see if we have a center and how well-defined the circulation is if there is one.
Using latitude lines as reference, I don't think it is a closed low, and darn but it is still having dry air issues, the low cloud arcs/outflow boundaries don't show up well on IR, but visible, 96L looks like it probably won't become a TC this afternoon.

Maybe tomorrow. That fits, sort of, with 2 day medium/5 days high from NHC.
Quoting 279. junie1:

I miss the good old days when TWC had real hurricane experts like john hope and steve Lyons

Quoting 278. VAbeachhurricanes:



My first thought or light reflection, but apparently hundreds of people called in to report it.

I assume there were lots of water droplets in the area that day.
just a question..anyone on here from the bahama's....are they at all alerting folks there yet or no?
gloom and doom on the blog this morning now there is a possible event looming again the mood has changed. characters love landfallers no denying it
Quoting 263. CaribBoy:

Looking North :


Looking SE...........






St. Barths? C'est beau!
Quoting 305. TylerStanfield:

It appears there is at least some sort of ill-defined circulation 96L. Recon is approaching the area and will investigate to see if we have a center and how well-defined the circulation is if there is one.


Look at all the outflow boundaries. Lots of downdrafts. Not a good sign.
12z HWRF
84 hours
Quoting 302. FOREX:

Can we stop posting the GEM CMC if it is a garbage model for tropics.


Folks here post what they will within the rules of the road Forex..
It gives a diversity that gives this blog a well rounded perspective IMO..
Nothing personal against you Forex..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Here are some pics of the houston thing:



They're those metallic helium party baloons. They are visible because of a light source like the lightning in the photo. These drive power companies nuts because they eventually descend and, if they land in power lines, there's trouble. There was a move afoot several years ago to require these kinds of balloons be made out of non-metallic mylar but I haven't heard if that went into effect.
Quoting 261. BayFog:


water droplets?

Looks like balloons with lights in them tied together. It has been done before and lots of folks think they are seeing a UFO.
A lot of us tend to forget that systems struggle convectively a lot of the time after they depart the monsoon trough/ITCZ. 96L did just that early this morning and it's just now starting to recover. This is a huge system that will take a while to organize completely. At least a true center seems to be showing itself now.




Ok LLC that is partially exposed now moving W 270°
But there still maybe a new on forming SW of the other one
Quoting 317. sar2401:

They're those metallic helium party baloons. They are visible because of a light source like the lightning in the photo. These drive power companies nuts because they eventually descend and, if they land in power lines, there's trouble. There was a move afoot several years ago to require these kinds of balloons be made out of non-metallic mylar but I haven't heard if that went into effect.


So someone was like this will be fun to release these into a thunderstorm... Dumb, thought it was some cool electrical thing.
Quoting BayFog:

Look at all the outflow boundaries. Lots of downdrafts. Not a good sign.
It looks pretty terrible right now. I can't imagine the HH's will find any kind of coherent circulation. I've seen better looking storms over the Midwest on a summer afternoon...
1003mb
84 hours
324. FOREX
Quoting 316. pcola57:



Folks here post what they will within the rules of the road Forex..
It gives a diversity that gives this blog a well rounded perspective IMO..
Nothing personal against you Forex..

I understand, just think posting bogus models keeps us unfocused on a potential serious situation. Thanks for your remarks though.
Quoting 317. sar2401:

They're those metallic helium party baloons. They are visible because of a light source like the lightning in the photo. These drive power companies nuts because they eventually descend and, if they land in power lines, there's trouble. There was a move afoot several years ago to require these kinds of balloons be made out of non-metallic mylar but I haven't heard if that went into effect.


that's exactly what it is. Mylar balloons.
Quoting 315. ncstorm:

12z HWRF
84 hours



Further N this run through 84
Correction, that's Cuba, so pretty much what it had the last run.
Quoting 326. ProgressivePulse:



Further N this run through 84



You mean S but weaker....but it seems right thru 72hrs
Quoting LargoFl:
just a question..anyone on here from the bahama's....are they at all alerting folks there yet or no?
The Bahams Met Service notes the possibility of a tropical cyclone over the weekend but no, it's way too early to be putting out anything else.

BAHAMAS PUBLIC FORECAST

WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
THURSDAY 21ST AUGUST 2014

GENERAL SITUATION: TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS WHILE SHIFTING WESTWARD.

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT

LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

WINDS: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON OVER OPEN WATERS
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE: 93F 34C
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE: 79F 26C

SUNRISE: 6:46AM SUNSET: 7:39PM
MOONSET: 4:58PM MO0ONRISE: 4:16AM FRI

LOW TIDE: 11:40AM HIGH TIDE: 6:04PM
LOW TIDE: 12:30AM FRI. HIGH TIDE: 6:21AM FRI.

EXTENDED FORECAST: POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND

FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
WEATHER: INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS BY EVENING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS: EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS

FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
WINDS: NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDERED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING….REACH NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AT SUNSET FRIDAY…THEN PASS NORH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUNSET ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW HAS THE MEDIUM POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND HIGH POSSIBILITY THROUGH 5 DAYS.


THE END…..C.J/ORSON NIXON
Hi remember me geez......cannot believe any model right now...................
Quoting 316. pcola57:



Folks here post what they will within the rules of the road Forex..
It gives a diversity that gives this blog a well rounded perspective IMO..
Nothing personal against you Forex..
Hello Pcola!.I imagine you are just sitting back and watching to see what happens in a few days.
Quoting 330. sar2401:

The Bahams Met Service notes the possibility of a tropical cyclone over the weekend but no, it's way too early to be putting out anything else.

BAHAMAS PUBLIC FORECAST

WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
THURSDAY 21ST AUGUST 2014

GENERAL SITUATION: TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS WHILE SHIFTING WESTWARD.

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT

LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

WINDS: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON OVER OPEN WATERS
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE: 93F 34C
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE: 79F 26C

SUNRISE: 6:46AM SUNSET: 7:39PM
MOONSET: 4:58PM MO0ONRISE: 4:16AM FRI

LOW TIDE: 11:40AM HIGH TIDE: 6:04PM
LOW TIDE: 12:30AM FRI. HIGH TIDE: 6:21AM FRI.

EXTENDED FORECAST: POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND

FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
WEATHER: INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS BY EVENING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS: EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS

FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
WINDS: NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDERED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING….REACH NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AT SUNSET FRIDAY…THEN PASS NORH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUNSET ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW HAS THE MEDIUM POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND HIGH POSSIBILITY THROUGH 5 DAYS.


THE END…..C.J/ORSON NIXON
ok thanks sar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I am working on it these things take some time man

happy b day on sat too ya

Oh. OK then. But get on with it, we don't have anything to look forward to.

Except me, on Saturday.
Thanks for the Greeting.
Drinks are on the house.
Bring your own ladder…….

:):))
Does anyone know what happened to Dr. Steve Lyons? He was great. So was John Hope. TWC is an entertainment channel now. Very different from the cutting edge of the 1980's and 1990's.

Dr. Steve and I have the same alma mater. He used to surf a break on the north shore of Oahu called Laniakea ("Lanis"); one of my favs. He is a very tall guy and stands out in the line up. The guy could surf! Very athletic.

Quoting 279. junie1:

I miss the good old days when TWC had real hurricane experts like john hope and steve Lyons
I don't know how long NavGem was run in parallel with NoGaps before it became the operational model, but just as an amateur observer, it doesn't seem like much, if any, improvement.
Quoting 303. LargoFl:

you know scott..this is the very first time in many years..inside me i feel This time we are gonna get it..just a feeling but gee...glad im prepared and ready

Largo, I feel your pain. The track on the the main wunderground hurricane page show the track right over ME! Just like Jeanne and Frances. Going to wait to get any kind of worried until this actually develops into something (or not) and then the models can get a real handle on it. Too much Florida wishcasting going on the blog today for my comfort.
Quoting 326. ProgressivePulse:



Further N this run through 84


Further South.
Quoting 292. LargoFl:

12Z gem(cmc) model Back to its original track up florida..again today................
DOOM!!
Quoting 304. VegasRain:

Discussions of race, political ideology, religion or other non-tropical weather or climate related topics should not be discussed on the blog, and are violation of the Community Standards Policy.


Hopefully admins will take care of that user appropriately.
Quoting 283. VAbeachhurricanes:


Here are some pics of the houston thing:





The circular lights are to be seen along any freeway in Houston. They rest atop very high poles.
Recon investigating the center now. It appears to have clipped the northern edge of the center. They will need to go further south to investigate if it is closed or not. But slight windshift does give some signs of a center, nonetheless.
96L 15.0 N 56.3 W moving WNW 15 mph
The similarities between 92E and 96L are pretty fascinating. Same type of development processes, for the most part. The obvious difference is the EPAC being more favorable for convective activity.




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite data indicate that an area of low pressure located about
275 miles east of Guadeloupe has become a little better defined
today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some development during the next day or
so, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the Lesser Antilles. The
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit development during the
first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by Sunday when the system is
forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible
across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and
Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

Quoting 288. wunderkidcayman:


Actually there s it's becoming naked although I think that it may be an old LLC and a new on is forming to the old LLCs SW
Visible center is near 16.2N 57.2W moving N-NNW

new one looks to be forming near 15.6N 58.2W


I bet there are two vortices spinning about. The overall circulation is still broad and elongated, so it's possible that we have separate vortices duking it out. If that's the case, slow development if any until that is resolved.
12z JMA.. I'm sure you can manage some dynamic synoptics on that as well?..

Quoting 327. ProgressivePulse:

Correction, that's Cuba, so pretty much what it had the last run.


More south this run. Solution is identical to the CMC thus far and brings a cat 1 hurricane into MIami area at 120hrs.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I bet there are two vortices spinning about. The overall circulation is still broad and elongated, so it's possible that we have separate vortices duking it out. If that's the case, slow development if any until that is resolved.

Yes seems that could be so
Quoting 308. LargoFl:

just a question..anyone on here from the bahama's....are they at all alerting folks there yet or no?
1. No apostrophe in Bahamas!
2. Haven't heard the news today but they have been mentioning it in the wx reports....
Quoting 349. ncstorm:

12z JMA.. I'm sure you can manage some dynamic synoptics on that as well?..




I was told by a blogger that the CMC is a bunch of buttocks. That is what i was told and I was told that model is trash so throw it out.
Quoting 352. BahaHurican:

1. No apostrophe in Bahamas!
2. Haven't heard the news today but they have been mentioning it in the wx reports....
ok ty
HWRF holding strong nrt. Definitely worrisome especially since the CMC shifted back west.
Quoting 350. StormTrackerScott:



More south this run. Solution is identical to the CMC thus far and brings a cat 1 hurricane into MIami area at 120hrs.


I was just referring to 84rs, seemed to be pretty close to where the 00Z run was. 120 is further S however.
Quoting FOREX:

I understand, just think posting bogus models keeps us unfocused on a potential serious situation. Thanks for your remarks though.
The CMC is not a bad model for track. It's not very good for intensity. The HWRF might be a good model but it has yet to prove itself. There are several things to consider. We have geographically biased bloggers. They will tout every model that brings a storm toward them and play down every model that doesn't. Just take what they post with a grain of salt. The other, and most important thing, is that no individual model run means anything. Operational models aren't as good as ensembles. All the models taken together, over time, mean something. There is a fascination with posting each model run. That's fine if it keeps people happy. They don't mean a thing when it comes to the long range forecast.
Quoting 348. ILwthrfan:



I bet there are two vortices spinning about. The overall circulation is still broad and elongated, so it's possible that we have separate vortices duking it out. If that's the case, slow development if any until that is resolved.
it will remain slow until it passes 16n 66 w after that it will start to look better but then land interaction with DR/Hati
will likely mess it back up then after that it will try again
Quoting 354. StormTrackerScott:



I was told by a blogger that the CMC is a bunch of buttocks. That is what i was told and I was told that model is trash so throw it out.


Scott please post what you want and let those that work at NASA but blog here 24/7 continue to spout their brilliance among us amateurs..
Quoting 356. Drakoen:

HWRF holding strong nrt. Definitely worrisome especially since the CMC shifted back west.


Also the HWRF inner nest dropped the storm ~30 hours, so that development near SF was from the outer nest only. To close, I'm at 25.6N 80.4W
Quoting 356. Drakoen:

HWRF holding strong nrt. Definitely worrisome especially since the CMC shifted back west.
I must admit the HWRF did pretty darn good with Arthur.I'll give it that.
Virtually all the ground stations in the Lesser Antilles are showing easterlies. Doesn't seem to be any sign of a closed surface circulation. This really looks like an open wave with some convection off to the northwest being enhanced by interaction with southwesterly winds aloft.
Quoting 283. VAbeachhurricanes:



Here are some pics of the houston thing:






img src="">
Quoting 357. WIBadgerWeather:

could be the rare ball lightening look it up does same thing
Quoting 359. sar2401:

The CMC is not a bad model for track. It's not very good for intensity. The HWRF might be a good model but it has yet to prove itself. There are several things to consider. We have geographically biased bloggers. They will tout every model that brings a storm toward them and play down every model that doesn't. Just take what they post with a grain of salt. The other, and most important thing, is that no individual model run means anything. Operational models aren't as good as ensembles. All the models taken together, over time, mean something. There is a fascination with posting each model run. That's fine if it keep people happy. They don't mean a thing when it comes to the long range forecast.



It has yet to prove itself? Lol.
Quoting 364. BayFog:

Virtually all the ground stations in the Lesser Antilles are showing easterlies. Doesn't seem to be any sign of a closed surface circulation. This really looks like an open wave with some convection off to the northwest being enhanced by interaction with southwesterly winds aloft.
I know it was a open wave this morning!
From 270 at 2 knots
(From the W at ~ 2.3 mph)

he has west winds
Quoting 332. washingtonian115:

Hello Pcola!.I imagine you are just sitting back and watching to see what happens in a few days.


Hey Washi.. :)
Moved to SC earlier this year..
But..
Am going down to Pcola this weekend..
Checking on Mom..
Will stay for awhile so am interested in 96L ATM..
Very Broad circulation with this system gives me the creeps as it can consolidate to a smaller entity after any interactions with the Carrib..
Tracks and intensity can and will change many times..
Good to see ya.. :)
watch out!!
Right on the same track as the CMC. Infact identical.


Getting west winds now, he's closed
374. FOREX
Quoting 371. hurricanes2018:

watch out!!


bogus model.
Hurricane Hunters finding well defined center. Track it here.
no west wind with invest 96L yet
Quoting 374. FOREX:



bogus model.

k, you'll be on the record saying that, which model do you prefer since your so quick to bash this one?
Looks like they found one 16.3 57.6W
Quoting 221. StormTrackerScott:

And then into the GULF.


Don't want it to go there!
I found the center to be at around 16.0N: 57.5W. I didn't see any other signs of another LLC present or developing. I found that this center is intensifying.
From 237° at 9 knots (From the WSW at ~ 10.3 mph)

Now if only organized deep convection........
Quoting 375. Drakoen:





7 days away not that much time gota feeling this may sneak up on us.
16.383N 57.667W
From 270° at 2 knots
(From the W at ~ 2.3 mph)

Wind shift here
West winds. Next thing to figure out is if there area any dueling centers in this huge area. Looks pretty decent for now.


Right up the entire west coast of FL.

UKMET 12z shifts south and is now through the Florida Straits.
Good afternoon

It's a hot and humid, overcast with a light breeze, and a few showers here on the island today.

I finally had a chance to install the second webcam here at work. If you take a look at the first cam, it is pointing at the St. Thomas Harbor (in front of downtown Charlotte Amalie); and the second one is pointing at Crown Bay. There are no cruise ships in today, but it is great to watch the ships arrive in the mornings!

I realize I still have to do a little focusing on the images but that will come in the next day or two!

Link

Hope you enjoy!

Lindy
Quoting 370. pcola57:



Hey Washi.. :)
Moved to SC earlier this year..
But..
Am going down to Pcola this weekend..
Checking on Mom..
Will stay for awhile so am interested in 96L ATM..
Very Broad circulation with this system gives me the creeps as it can consolidate to a smaller entity after any interactions with the Carrib..
Tracks and intensity can and will change many times..
Good to see ya.. :)
Yes.The best thing is just to take it a day steady and check the hurricane supplies kit like what I have been doing.It's a very fragile pattern right now that 96L is in.Now is a good time to check on your mother.
390. FOREX
Quoting 378. chrisdscane:


k, you'll be on the record saying that, which model do you prefer since your so quick to bash this one?


UKMET, and the most intelligent bloggers on this blog are always bashing the CMC.
do the models take acc/ of the gulf stream i know andrew rapidly intensified over it
We have ourselves a center!
Quoting 369. will40:

From 270° at 2 knots
(From the W at ~ 2.3 mph)

she has west winds

2 knots? That's minimal enough to be within a margin of error, no? And at altitude, not that unusual for a wave. I doubt they would call it closed based on that IMHUPO.
Lol. Levi is using his Alaskan persuasion on the Canadians. Takes it right to him in Tallahassee.


Quoting 387. Drakoen:

UKMET 12z shifts south and is now through the Florida Straits.
how strong?
So Recon has found a closed surface circulation near 16.4N 57.4W, and flight level winds of about 40mph..but might be contaminated.



But the circulation center appears to be moving NW.

Quoting EdMahmoud:
I don't know how long NavGem was run in parallel with NoGaps before it became the operational model, but just as an amateur observer, it doesn't seem like much, if any, improvement.
Less than a year as I remember. The Navy was under some heavy pressure since the NHC told them they were dumping the NOGAPS over the side because it had performed so poorly. The Navy claims the NAVGEM is way better, and the NHC has agreed. It has only been operational since last year and, from what I've seen so far, the Navy has sold the NHC a bill of goods.
CMC is garbage........ doesn't mean it won't be correct once in awhile. Hit 1 last year but 90% of the time it's wrong at day 5. We go by the Euro and GFS thru 5 days if they are both in the same area.....but 3 days is more accurate to make a decent forecast. Now the CMC has been in the GOM...to east of the bahamas to back over FL and Ne GOM in 6 days. What we look for is consistency and the CMC changes alot or is the outliner ALOT. HWRF has been constant in track, so has the UKMET so we will take them into consideration but still the track bend to florida is by day 4 not 3. Right now, the best bet is that this will be in the southern Bahamas like the GFS, shows by Sunday-Monday.
They have found one center are they looking for another?

As of 17:58 UTC Aug 21, 2014:
Aircraft Position: 16.30N 57.30W
Bearing: 135 at 166 kt
Altitude: 303 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 36 kt at 176
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A


401. JLPR2
Quoting 392. TylerStanfield:

We have ourselves a center!



That's way more defined than what I was expecting, but still needs work.
402. FOREX
Quoting 398. scottsvb:

CMC is garbage........ doesn't mean it won't be correct once in awhile. Hit 1 last year but 90% of the time it's wrong at day 5. We go by the Euro and GFS thru 5 days if they are both in the same area.....but 3 days is more accurate to make a decent forecast. Now the CMC has been in the GOM...to east of the bahamas to back over FL and Ne GOM in 6 days. What we look for is consistency and the CMC changes alot or is the outliner ALOT. HWRF has been constant in track, so has the UKMET so we will take them into consideration but still the track bend to florida is by day 4 not 3. Right now, the best bet is that this will be in the southern Bahamas like the GFS, shows by Sunday-Monday.
Let's see if you are attacked like I was for calling the CMC garbage. Somehow I doubt it.
Quoting 396. cyclonekid:

So Recon has found a closed surface circulation near 16.4N 57.4W, and flight level winds of about 40mph..but might be contaminated.



But the circulation center appears to be moving NW.


center moving wnw to nw. close call.
Models always seem to over correct, so the initial swing to the east was probably too far, so they will move back west a bit. How much is the question.
I'm glad recon is up there to confirm a COC.Just what we needed.It's lacking convection at the moment.
Quoting 395. wunderweatherman123:

how strong?


Weak TS
Quoting 385. MississippiWx:

West winds. Next thing to figure out is if there area any dueling centers in this huge area. Looks pretty decent for now.




Only thing the NHC is looking for now is convective organization... And knowing how this season has been, that may be a struggle.
Quoting 317. sar2401:

They're those metallic helium party baloons. They are visible because of a light source like the lightning in the photo. These drive power companies nuts because they eventually descend and, if they land in power lines, there's trouble. There was a move afoot several years ago to require these kinds of balloons be made out of non-metallic mylar but I haven't heard if that went into effect.


At least they are not flying bags with candles burning in them like they do down here in mexico. Crazy with all the thatched roofs ready to go up like a match. What about releasing of all that trash into environment? There should be a law against it.
12z Euro still a recurve.
12z CMC total precip through 240 hours

Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good afternoon

It's a hot and humid, overcast with a light breeze, and a few showers here on the island today.

I finally had a chance to install the second webcam here at work. If you take a look at the first cam, it is pointing at the St. Thomas Harbor (in front of downtown Charlotte Amalie); and the second one is pointing at Crown Bay. There are no cruise ships in today, but it is great to watch the ships arrive in the mornings!

I realize I still have to do a little focusing on the images but that will come in the next day or two!

Link

Hope you enjoy!

Lindy
Both views look fine to me, Lindy. It is a slow day with only one inter island steamer in port. Looks like 96L will at least be bringing you some rain by Saturday so the cisterns will get another drink.
This is kinda funny... you guys are showing a hurricane plowing into Florida, yet I see this...

I just cannot tell you how much this model scares me..can you Imagine the destruction if this were to verify?.....
Quoting DogtownMex:


At least they are not flying bags with candles burning in them like they do down here in mexico. Crazy with all the thatched roofs ready to go up like a match. What about releasing of all that trash into environment? There should be a law against it.
They tried that in California and didn't get anywhere. Apparently, shiny balloons are a zillion dollar business. Who knew? :-)
Quoting 407. TylerStanfield:


Only thing the NHC is looking for now is convective organization... And knowing how this season has been, that may be a struggle.



Knowing how this season has gone, 96L is heading towards an area favorable for convective development and tropical instability present over the Bahamas. This region along with the NW Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico as well as along the Gulf Stream off the East Coast remain favorable for intensifying hurricanes.
Quoting 399. KORBIN:

They have found one center are they looking for another?



Once a center is found, they will continue the mission investigating around the extent of the storm and finding how strong surface winds are in each quadrant as well as pass through the center to give a center fix on an updated location. So far nothing supports TS strength so once the convection becomes better organized, this would likely become Tropical depression Four.
Quoting 402. FOREX:

Let's see if you are attacked like I was for calling the CMC garbage. Somehow I doubt it.


We don't have to go by or do anything scott says. The ultimate deciders will be the NHC.The main reason why I didn't think the CMC was credible in the first place was because it was too deep with the system. Now that the intensity looks more reasonable so does the track.
Euro now is by far the farthest east of all the models and is becoming an outliner.
Quoting 401. JLPR2:


That's way more defined than what I was expecting, but still needs work.


It needs a significant convective burst.
Quoting 410. MississippiWx:

12z Euro still a recurve.

Looks like we have a split solution.One camp going west and the others east.I wonder which one will win out?.
Quoting 413. TampaTom:

This is kinda funny... you guys are showing a hurricane plowing into Florida, yet I see this...




Those runs have not updated as the 12Z runs shifted west well atleast most did.
kelvin wave????
Quoting LargoFl:
I just cannot tell you how much this model scares me..can you Imagine the destruction if this were to verify?.....
The CMC and HWRF had that same hurricane over my house in Alabama yesterday. I was so scared I had to go get a donut to calm down. I mean, really, Largo. If my house is under the black line in the NHC cone of doom, I might get concerned. For some crazy model runs, who cares? The next one might have it over my house again.
425. FOREX
Quoting 421. washingtonian115:

Looks like we have a split solution.One camp going west and the others east.I wonder which one will win out?.


East.
Quoting 414. LargoFl:

I just cannot tell you how much this model scares me..can you Imagine the destruction if this were to verify?.....


Showing a major hurricane (Cat 3 at most ~115mph) that hits Miami and scoots west. If this were to verify, it'd be the first major hurricane landfall since Wilma in 2005, a record 9 year major hurricane drought.
427. JLPR2
I miss this color scheme in the WV images of the floaters.


Well anyway... 96L is lacking on central convection, though west side is looking good, maybe once the center reaches the area it will fire up too.
Quoting 419. StormTrackerScott:

Euro now is by far the farthest east of all the models and is becoming an outliner.


But the NHC goes by the Euro, whatever will they do?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Euro now is by far the farthest east of all the models and is becoming an outliner.
Outliner?
Quoting 424. sar2401:

The CMC and HWRF had that same hurricane over my house in Alabama yesterday. I was so scared I had to go get a donut to calm down. I mean, really, Largo. If my house is under the black line in the NHC cone of doom, I might get concerned. For some crazy model runs, who cares? The next one might have it over my house again.


HWRF was never that far north. HWRF hasn't budged from it's solution since 96L was designated.
always bet east but just in case make sure the house insurance is paid, i guess the last time sw florida marco island was under water was donna
Quoting 426. cyclonekid:



Showing a major hurricane (Cat 3 at most ~115mph) that hits Miami and scoots west. If this were to verify, it'd be the first major hurricane landfall since Wilma in 2005, a record 9 year major hurricane drought.
yes i surely hope its bogus
WEST WINDS IN DOMINICA AND ST LUCIA
GFDL Ensemble, not many members survive


Quoting 429. sar2401:

Outliner?


Even the GFS shifted west some but not as far as the others.
Quoting 430. StormTrackerScott:



HWRF was never that far north. HWRF hasn't budged from it's solution since 96L was designated.
yes while the other models flip flopped all over the place, hwrf never budged.god i hope its wrong.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Quoting 421. washingtonian115:

Looks like we have a split solution.One camp going west and the others east.I wonder which one will win out?.
Pattern is kind of iffy, but if 96L is still not very strong when it reaches the weakness the trough will miss. After that, game over for someone. The environment should be very supportive for intensification. Best case scenario is for it to take the Euro path.
Quoting BayFog: HH is picking up some west winds now, indicative of more defined center of circulation.
Quoting 422. StormTrackerScott:



Those runs have not updated as the 12Z runs shifted west well atleast most did.


Gotcha. Just checking... Still way too early to tell track or intensity...
Quoting MississippiWx:
Lol. Levi is using his Alaskan persuasion on the Canadians. Takes it right to him in Tallahassee.


Boy, I'd take that rain in a heartbeat. I'm not holding my breath though.
crazy weather modeles dancing around!!
I do think the HWRF, UKMET, and CMC solutions may need to be adjusted further north (not east) to account for the center being farther north. You can see this discrepancy in the newly updated BAMM runs compared to the 12z initialization.
i dont think in my entire life time,have i seen a 20-25 inch rainfall..have you?...............
HWRF- Pretty good Tropical Model has a sticky situation for MIA!

So we have a 30 % chance that 96L will prove to be naught. Fine with me. I just got 1 gallon of shrimp. We have not had a shrimp run in four years due to heavy rain in late August and September. We only have a 3-5 week window. Four years ago we got 400-500 pounds. It is early for the shrimp but they are starting to come in. No FL tropical anything allowed for at least 21 days!
Quoting 412. sar2401:

Both views look fine to me, Lindy. It is a slow day with only one inter island steamer in port. Looks like 96L will at least be bringing you some rain by Saturday so the cisterns will get another drink.


We're keeping our fingers crossed, sar!
Quoting 444. LargoFl:

i dont think in my entire life time,have i seen a 20-25 inch rainfall..have you?...............


TS Isaac... 20 inches in 24 hours here in the Western communities of Palm Beach county. Houses were islands for 5 days.
All this namecalling of the various model s is just opinion. Meanwhile the experts are using a consensus approach.
Right now models suggest a volatile situation. Demonizing one of them reduces our ability to assess the situation.
Quoting 444. LargoFl:

i dont think in my entire life time,have i seen a 20-25 inch rainfall..have you?...............


Tropical Storm Claudette July 25th 1979 dumped 43 inches of rain in 24 hours. My neighborhood looked like a scene from the movie Water World. 25" in 24 hours is easily obtainable.

Quoting 308. LargoFl:

just a question..anyone on here from the bahama's....are they at all alerting folks there yet or no?
First off it's Bahamas and if you are referring to any 'official' alerts then no, however during hurricane season we are always 'aware' of what is going on. We don't tend to panic over here we just prepare and 'hunker down' when necessary. It's not like we can evacuate so we have to be prepared and make do as best we can, been this way for hundreds of years.
Partly Cloudy

94F

34C

Humidity54%
Wind SpeedN 7 mph
Barometer30.07 in (1018.4 mb)
Dewpoint75F (24C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index106F (41C)

Last Update on 21 Aug 2:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

St. Petersburg / Clea (KPIE)

Lat: 27.91N Lon: 82.69W Elev: 10ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather






Definitely a hot day here, and I'm going to head into even worse heat soon, I'm heading back FSU tomorrow to start the Fall semester, its expected to be 100 both Friday and Saturday with a heat index from 108-112, yikes, oh well, it will be an adventure.
Euro still picks up 96 L.