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Disaster Movie 'Into the Storm' is a Disaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on August 17, 2014

From the beginning of tornado disaster movie, "Into the Storm", we are treated to the most magnificent special effects that Hollywood can create. In the eighteen years since the infamous "Twister" of 1996, computer graphics technology has progressed remarkably. The spinning fire tornado and jetliners hurtling through the air in "Into the Storm" make the flying cows and clumsily rendered tornadoes of Twister seem quaint. Unfortunately, as is the case in nearly all disaster movies, the plot, dialogue, and acting of "Into the Storm" are a disaster. The movie opens humorously, with a scene featuring two low-wisdom yahoo storm chasers who look like they came straight out of "Jackass". They put on the most believable acting job of anyone in the movie, but unfortunately, are only minor characters. The rest of the movie features main characters whose acting ranges from mediocre to bad. Not only is the acting bad, but none of the characters are sympathetic, and there is very little character development. As a result, we have no one to root for. The characters range from bland (meteorologist Allison) to annoying (Vice Principal Gary, whose school gets devastated by a tornado) to drab (his son Donnie, who gets trapped in rubble with his wanna-be-girlfriend Kaitlyn), to downright obnoxious (storm chaser Pete.) The scene of Donnie and Caitlin trapped in tornado rubble and recording their final words on their cell phones for posterity is quite possibly the most melodramatic and painful disaster movie scene in cinema history. I had to shut my eyes and think about how good "Sharknado" was by comparison to shut out the interminably long debacle of dialogue and acting.


Figure 1. The cast of "Into the Storm" contemplate the very bad day they are having thanks to an onslaught of destructive tornadoes. Image credit: Official Into the Storm website.

Meteorologically, "Into the Storm" had less to complain about than other major weather disasters movies like "Twister", "The Day After Tomorrow", and "Sharknado". The tornadoes were believably rendered in most cases, and the damage they did was fairly realistically portrayed. Still, there were a lot of problems with the movie's meteorology. The winds of the tornadoes were able to hurl impressively heavy vehicles incredibly long distances, yet not blow the characters around much. A string of five separate tornadoes (not a multi-vortex tornado) were able to spin in very close proximity, something not observed in nature. In one scene, we are treated to the view up the inside of a tornado, which is remarkably symmetrical and light at the top. It would certainly be very dark at the top inside a tornado, and not so perfectly symmetrical.

The main characters of the movie were its tornadoes, and they certainly put on an impressive performance that was thrilling at times. But great special effects can't make up for awful plot, dialogue, and acting, and I give "Into the Storm" one and-a-half stars out of four. Aggregate critic ratings of the five major weather disaster movies of the past twenty years from the movie ratings site, Rottentomatoes.com, agree that "Into the Storm" was the worst one of the lot, with only 20% of critics liking the movie. The percentage of critics liking these movies:

82%: Sharknado
58%: Twister
54%: Sharknado 2
45%: The Day After Tomorrow
20%: Into the Storm

\
Video 1. Official trailer for "Into the Storm." The most impressive special effects are shown here, so save yourself $10 and the painful melodrama of the movie and just watch the trailer.

Quiet in the tropics
A tropical wave located in the middle Atlantic, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is headed westwards at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a broad, elongated surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is almost entirely lacking due to high wind shear of 20 knots and dry air. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that the wave is surrounded by a very dry airmass. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are marginal for development, about 26°C, but will be warmer late in the week as the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. The Sunday morning runs of two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European and UKMET models, did show some weak development of the wave by late in the week. The models differed wildly in the forward speed of the disturbance, with the UKMET model predicting the wave would pass a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night, and the European model predicting that this would not occur until Sunday night. Given the rather divergent opinions of the models and the presence of so much dry air, the risk of development this week is low. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively.

I'll have a new post by Monday afternoon at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Book and Movie Reviews

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 493. KoritheMan:



Drak's sarcasm...

>

your head


LOL.

I'm so misunderstood. I believe the HWRF is a tropical cyclogenesis model. A tropical cyclone does not have to be formed for the HWRF to be run on it. It can be run on an area of low pressure.
I say it's 10/30% for 2am
NHC goes with 10/30%
No sense announcing anything until we hear from Wunderground.


Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, SD. Not feeling too good. Just enough to post some images. I hope you are all OK. And don't lose hope, the season is still young.


Awe. hope you're feeling better soon Gro. We all miss ya when you're not around.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
110 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W
TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND WED. A
SECOND...BROADER...TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED TO ALONG
42W AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON TUE NIGHT
AND WED...PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON THU...AND REACH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.

FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH THE MAXIMUM AFFECTED AREA OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG ON TUE AND WED EVENINGS.
Quoting Grothar:
No sense announcing anything until we hear from Wunderground.


Mmmm...boxes lunches at the OEM.
I think all of the gulf ensembles are from the thing at 40w-ish.

Quoting 499. sar2401:

Take it easy, Gro. Neither one of us are young men any more. :-(


I wouldn't say I'm old, it's just that when I get a new doctor, I feel I should sit him on my knee and read him a story.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Right. Intensity and track of tropical cyclones.

It can be run on invests as well, but the success rate is going to be infinitely better when initialized on an actual cyclone.
But it's not looking for cyclogenesis. The NHC has to tell it where to look. Once it's run, then it's track and intensity. That's much different than the other major models.
Quoting Grothar:


I wouldn't say I'm old, it's just that when I get a new doctor, I feel I should sit him on my knee and read him a story.
If you're lucky enough to have a nice female doctor, that's not such a bad thing. :-)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak and elongated area of low pressure is currently located
about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands. The associated shower activity is limited, and significant
development of this system is not expected during the next couple of
days. Beyond a couple of days, environmental conditions could
become a little more favorable for development when the system moves
slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 510. sar2401:

But it's not looking for cyclogenesis. The NHC has to tell it where to look. Once it's run, then it's track and intensity. That's much different than the other major models.


It may not be looking for it, which is debatable, but it is conducting cyclogenesis which is the development or strengthening of a low pressure system.
Quoting 510. sar2401:

But it's not looking for cyclogenesis. The NHC has to tell it where to look. Once it's run, then it's track and intensity. That's much different than the other major models.


Bingo.
Anyway see ya'll later

Quoting Drakoen:


It may not be looking for it, which is debatable, but it is conducting cyclogenesis which is the development or strengthening of a low pressure system.
How is it debatable? It's not run like the GFS, which is looking for any type of genesis, including garden variety lows. It's the intensity output that determines if there will be genesis of tropical cyclone, right?
Nite everybody.
Quoting Grothar:
Nite everybody.
GN, Gro. I hope you're more perky in the morning...or at least later this morning.
Night Gro. Night WKC.
I'm headed to bed, night everyone!

we have three lows now
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 21N27W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A
MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W TO 19N40W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N41W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
AND BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN
37W-47W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-
14N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 22N75W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR
12N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N
BETWEEN 71W-79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
14N21W TO 12N30W TO 11N41W TO 10N49W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 09N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 15W-24W...
AND FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 28W-35W.
Quoting 516. sar2401:

How is it debatable? It's not run like the GFS, which is looking for any type of genesis, including garden variety lows. It's the intensity output that determines if there will be genesis of tropical cyclone, right?


It's not like the GFS but we have seen the HWRF capable of producing low pressure systems outside the area of interest because other areas are within its regional domain which is run complicated equations on for things entering and leaving it's domain. That's why the HWRF-GEN is possible. The genesis of a tropical cyclone is determined by the conduciveness of the atmospheric conditions.
Quoting 523. Drakoen:



It's not like the GFS but we have seen the HWRF capable of producing low pressure systems outside the area of interest because other areas are within its regional domain which is run complicated equations on for things entering and leaving it's domain. That's why the HWRF-GEN is possible. The genesis of a tropical cyclone is determined by the conduciveness of the atmospheric conditions.


Nobody ever say people don't change their minds when presented with evidence. I just did.

Drak wins. I lose.
Quoting 524. KoritheMan:



Nobody ever say people don't change their minds when presented with evidence. I just did.

Drak wins. I lose.


You are exceptionally mellow tonight Kori
Quoting Drakoen:


It's not like the GFS but we have seen the HWRF capable of producing low pressure systems outside the area of interest because other areas are within its regional domain which is run complicated equations on for things entering and leaving it's domain. That's why the HWRF-GEN is possible. The genesis of a tropical cyclone is determined by the conduciveness of the atmospheric conditions.
OK, with the advent of the high res HWRF, that makes sense, although I would think it's not going to see much outside the domain actually initiated by the NHC.


here we go again!!
Quoting 503. wunderkidcayman:

NHC goes with 10/30%
10/30% at 8am!
No development on the ECMWF 00z through 135hrs and it seems the UKMET 00z is confused. Great way to rile up the blog.

Morning Drak. Had to take the pup out and checked in. Didn't want sar to have the last word. Take care my friend.
532. FOREX
Quoting 528. hurricanes2018:

10/30% at 8am!


I'm surprised 12N 33W doesn't have any percentages yet. 40W seems like poof to me.
Quoting Drakoen:
No development on the ECMWF 00z through 135hrs and it seems the UKMET 00z is confused. Great way to rile up the blog.




Quoting 533. Stormchaser2007:







Looking at the UKMET text, everything seemed pretty ridiculous.
A Tale of Two Seasons

Quoting 525. SunnyDaysFla:



You are exceptionally mellow tonight Kori


Actually I'm not. See post 493 for vulgarity and bluntness. The classical stuff.
Morning hello with a very wet and sad sideglance to Asia. This flooding is already going on for a while:

Nepal and India floods leave many dead
BBC News, 18 August 2014 Last updated at 06:47 GMT

Hundreds dead as monsoon brings chaos to northern India, Nepal
By Manesh Shrestha in Kathmandu and Harmeet Singh in Delhi, CNN, August 18, 2014 -- Updated 0817 GMT (1617 HKT)

Monsoon flooding update
Heavy moonsoon rain has caused flooding across parts of Asia . Tomasz Schafernaker takes a look.
BBC weather video, 17 August 2014 Last updated at 13:54

Torrential rains cause flooding, landslides in western Japan, killing 5
August 18, 2014
A stationary rain front over mainland Japan brought torrential rains and triggered flooding and landslides on Aug. 16 and 17 in the northern Kinki, Tokai and Hokuriku regions, resulting in the deaths of five people.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, an inflow of warm, humid air into the stationary front resulted in localized heavy rainstorms, disrupting traffic during the return of people from the mid-summer Bon holidays in those regions.
The five deaths were reported in the prefectures of Kyoto, Hyogo and Ishikawa.
In Tanba, Hyogo Prefecture, a 79-year-old man died after a landslide demolished his house, and he became trapped with his wife under the rubble. The man's wife survived.
In Fukuchiyama, Kyoto Prefecture, a 24-year-old man was found dead in his car. A 74-year-old woman in Hakui, Ishikawa Prefecture, was killed in a landslide that occurred on the hillside behind her house.
The hourly precipitation in Fukuchiyama totaled 62 millimeters. Rainwater caused more than 1,000 houses and buildings in the urban area of the city to be inundated above or below the floor level.
Rainfall levels in Takayama, Gifu Prefecture, was 57 millimeters, and 52.5 millimeters in Omihachiman, Shiga Prefecture. The rate was 44 millimeters per hour in Kanazawa, Ishikawa Prefecture.
Cars and bridges in Takayama were swept away by floods. About 15 houses and buildings at the heart of the city were flooded above the floor level, with some of the houses inundated with mud from landslides. An evacuation advisory was issued for about 9,200 households and about 24,000 residents.


Tokyo combats flood threats with second mammoth reservoir
by Jacob Adelman, Bloomberg

---------------------------------

BTW, northern Europe is currently visited by stormy low Wilma (yes!), an unusual early autumnal windstorm. But this year everything happened a bit earlier than usual in Europe (spring and summer as well).





Have a nice Monday!
...SRN AR/NRN LA EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA...

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DIURNAL PEAK HEATING CYCLE FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY VICINITY ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO
THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA...AS THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DESTABILIZES
MODESTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WILL FACILITATE MAINTENANCE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- WHICH
SHOULD HINDER MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPE DEVELOPMENT.

DESPITE LACK OF A CLEAR SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
THOUGH THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN MOST AREAS SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE RISK...20 TO 30 KT WSWLY FLOW IN THE H8 TO H5 LAYER
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO SMALL BANDS --
AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS
SUPPORT EXPANSION OF 5% RISK AREA ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS/ROGERS.. 08/18/2014

OZ GEFS show signs life end of month and into September, Euro ensemble means looks dead.

GEFS have a happier MJO.

I suspect updated hotlinks, when the occur will be similar.



this monsoon trough slowly moving across the atlantic might never break up into a low or lows.
I have not done much analysis this morning, but looking at the sat pics, the area at 12N 32W seems to be the stronger of the lows. one can actually see the low level clouds by passing the low at 40W and streaming to the area to it's east. this could be the precursor for the advent of Cristobal. BBL
I'll spend 90 minutes today in Florida. First time in the Sunshine State since the spending 1983 and 1984 in Orlando 32813.

Not leaving the airport at Ft Myers. More direct connection from ISP on the way back through BWI.

I hope it is only 90 minutes. 58ºF in ISP now, chilly, but not unbearable.

One advantage of a comatose hurricane season, no weather issues in Florida. 20% chance of afternoon t-storms, that is what usually we get here this time of year, although there is a protective bubble that always cuts our probs to a quarter of the NWS forecast.

80ºF with a 76ºF dewpoint here, in a complete miracle, not that I'll be leaving the airport's air conditioning, such that it doesn't matter, it is hotter and more humid in Houston than Florida.
544. MahFL
Nice spin at 12 N 43 W.
lots of speculation of whats going to happen. it nice when even the experts arent sure. interesting yr
nice spin at 33 west
the tahiti surf contest is expected to be a go today. 10 ft long periods swells (3'xs overhead plus) are going to be exploding at the fabled and very dangerous surf spot. the swell was generated from a large storm just sse of new zealand. its going to be webcasted
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity with a weak and elongated area of low pressure
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands remains disorganized. Development of this system is
not expected during the next couple of days, but beyond that time,
environmental conditions could become a little more favorable for
development when the system moves slowly westward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila
Why in the hell is the AOI in the central atlantic not designated as an invest?
need to watch this new tropical wave about to hit the water later today
Good Morning..



Interesting



Two E lows are merging

I'm still expecting if any development is to occurs it would be on the W low
On satellite all three lows not looking too bad at the moment
Quoting 550. hurricanes2018:

need to watch this new tropical wave about to hit the water later today
Thats the same everybody said with the others two already in the Atlantic.
06z Navgem


Quoting STORMW2014:
Why in the hell is the AOI in the central atlantic not designated as an invest?

A lot of stuff is uncertain plus we all need to find out what lows merge what low is independent all 3 not looking too bad at the moment we need to wait and see what happens most likely we will not see invest designation for a couple of days after that most likely we will get it
That's the problem with these large monsoonal system it take long to develop
00z UKmet..

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.3N 30.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 18.08.2014 12.3N 30.8W WEAK

00UTC 19.08.2014 13.8N 31.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2014 14.5N 34.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.08.2014 15.3N 38.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.08.2014 16.0N 42.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2014 16.4N 46.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH






NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.7N 58.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 58.7W WEAK

00UTC 23.08.2014 17.3N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.1N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2014 17.6N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 16.6N 62.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.1N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2014 17.6N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE




An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
558. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Interesting



Two E lows are merging

I'm still expecting if any development is to occurs it would be on the W low
On satellite all three lows not looking too bad at the moment

so GFS will win
Not looking good for the tag area of low pressure.
Quoting 555. wunderkidcayman:


A lot of stuff is uncertain plus we all need to find out what lows merge what low is independent all 3 not looking too bad at the moment we need to wait and see what happens most likely we will not see invest designation for a couple of days after that most likely we will get it
That's the problem with these large monsoonal system it take long to develop
Thats a problem? For me is OK to stay as a monsoonal system.
00z CMC..last frame
Quoting 559. Gearsts:

Not looking good.

Doomed by the models yellows?
Quoting 549. STORMW2014:

Why in the hell is the AOI in the central atlantic not designated as an invest?

It's elongated at present.
00z CMC Ensembles..

Quoting 556. ncstorm:

00z UKmet..

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.3N 30.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 18.08.2014 12.3N 30.8W WEAK

00UTC 19.08.2014 13.8N 31.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2014 14.5N 34.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.08.2014 15.3N 38.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.08.2014 16.0N 42.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2014 16.4N 46.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH






NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.7N 58.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 58.7W WEAK

00UTC 23.08.2014 17.3N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.1N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2014 17.6N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 16.6N 62.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.1N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2014 17.6N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE





Here comes the wishcaster again.Lets wait for Scottie too.
Models still forecasting a trough split over FL this weekend with the Euro hinting at a chance for something to form after this disturbance crosses and heads into the Gulf on the way to New Orleans as a possible developed system.

Here it is at 180hrs crossing FL.


Here is 240hrs heading for New Orleans.



Quoting 558. JRRP:


so GFS will win
yep
Quoting 567. Gearsts:

yep
Yep,Yep,Yep,Yep,Yep,Yep.
Everybody is looking for the Central Atlantic when in all honesty our best potential to get something may come from a trough split later this weekend. The Central Atlantic is more like the dead zone right now and time is running out to get a system in the MDR.
time is running out? its another crazy season and its just started. 2018 is all worn out already
Quoting 566. StormTrackerScott:

Models still forecasting a trough split over FL this weekend with the Euro hinting at a chance for something to form after this disturbance crosses and heads into the Gulf on the way to New Orleans as a possible developed system.


I will spend the whole week sitting here waiting for such catastrophe in NOLA
Quoting JRRP:

so GFS will win

It might but I'd have to see what 12Z sfc charts show
Quoting 571. islander101010:

time is running out? yep just like el nino


Its coming. Again I said it 100 times we need El-Nino to flush out this funk that the Atlantic is in right now.

Quoting 570. StormTrackerScott:

Everybody is looking for the Central Atlantic when in all honesty our best potential to get something may come from a trough split later this weekend. The Central Atlantic is more like the dead zone right now and time is running out to get a system in the MDR.
The expert is just arrive.
Quoting 571. islander101010:

time is running out? just started


Just started? Peak is just 3 weeks away and the models aren't very enthused about anything coming from the MDR over the next 10 days.
MDR is not as bad as before


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Models still forecasting a trough split over FL this weekend with the Euro hinting at a chance for something to form after this disturbance crosses and heads into the Gulf on the way to New Orleans as a possible developed system.

Here it is at 180hrs crossing FL.


Here is 240hrs heading for New Orleans.





I see hmm maybe but it don't look like much
God please send us a Cat 5 and the blog will exploded.Right now is sooooooooooooooooooo boring.
579. JRRP


Teahupo? That swell may hit south shores of Hawaii in about 5-7 days. Not sure about direction. Sounds like a big swell - a beast.

Quoting 547. islander101010:

the tahiti surf contest is expected to be a go today. 10 ft long periods swells (3'xs overhead plus) are going to be exploding at the fabled and very dangerous surf spot. the swell was generated from a large storm just sse of new zealand. its going to be webcasted
The longer El-Nino waits the longer the demise of the Atlantic Basin and folks that's the truth.
Good Morning.  In terms of the Atlantic tropics, the Central Atlantic MDR starting to moisten up a little more and the wave might stand a better chance of development if it can hold on (30% long-term) and get near the Antilles intact......A long shot right now but you never know.  Here is the moisture (and lack thereof) and what is next on the horizon from Africa; while the moisture is propagating out, we need some more robust waves with convection to sow the seeds over the next three weeks for a better looking ITCZ all the way to the Antilles.  That current dry air out there is going to continue suppress convection in the Central Atlantic but the current wave has been able to fire some within it's current envelope that may pave the way across the ITCZ for the waves that follow.



All of the moisture at the moment, as the result of SAL suppression in the Atlantic Basin, is along the ITCZ on the E-Pac side:


  
Quoting 576. StormTrackerScott:



Just started? Peak is just 3 weeks away and the models aren't very enthused about anything coming from the MDR over the next 10 days.
But why should we expect anything, since April we knew it was going to be a record slow season.
operational run of GFS stubborn. refuses to develop ANYTHING by september 3rd
The Eastern Caribbean Basin is also full of SAL at the moment; that does not bode well for the future of the wave when it gets there if that SAL has not disbursed: 

Quoting 582. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning.  In terms of the Atlantic tropics, the Central Atlantic MDR starting to moisten up a little more and the wave might stand a better chance of development if it can hold on (30% long-term) and get near the Antilles intact......A long shot right now but you never know.  Here is the moisture (and lack thereof) and what is next on the horizon from Africa; while the moisture is propagating out, we need some more robust waves with convection to sow the seeds over the next three weeks for a better looking ITCZ all the way to the Antilles.  That current dry air out there is going to continue suppress convection in the Central Atlantic but the current wave has been able to fire some within it's current envelope that may pave the way across the ITCZ for the waves that follow.




wannabe you are really good.
Quoting 588. GeoffreyWPB:


What?
That wave is actually a good start to help out the Atlantic ITCZ regardless of lack of development; it's basically a sacrificial lamb for the waves that will follow it between now and mid-September.
Quoting 572. prcane4you:

I will spend the whole week sitting here waiting for such catastrophe in NOLA


You better head to Home Depot now. He's only been wrong only once ever. LOL...
593. SLU
If this doesn't kick start development this week, nothing will.

Quoting 590. weathermanwannabe:

That wave is actually a good start to help out the Atlantic ITCZ regardless of lack of development; it's basically a sacrificial lamb for the waves that will follow it between now and mid-September.


There have been alot of waves this season that have been sacrificial lambs but that hasn't been stopping the dry air.
Finally, we might see some NHC crayons on the latest area of convection firing in the e-pac E-SW of Panama if it holds together over the next 48; as long as the E-Pac is this active, that is consistent with the inverse relationship with the Atlantic. Things should pick up on the Atlantic ITCZ side when the E-Pac quiets down a little along with the next eastward propagating MJO pulse into the Caribbean Basin :

Quoting 593. SLU:

If this doesn't kick start development this week, nothing will.


Taking his time getting here.
Wave bye bye two hurricane. Season 2014. No really am not joking. Hurricane season is over and done with.
Quoting 594. boltdwright:



There have been alot of waves this season that have been sacrificial lambs but that hasn't been stopping the dry air.


As Dr. Master's noted last week, this current set-up is basically a repeat of last year with the dry-stable air in the Central Atlantic......................The flip side is that the trade winds are slower this year so if a wave is able to reach TD status in the Atlantic or Caribbean, it will have a better chance of stacking up vertically if it can fight off the dry air.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Finally, we might see some NHC crayons on the latest area of convection firing in the e-pac E-SW of Panama if it holds together over the next 48; as long as the E-Pac is this active, that is consistent with the inverse relationship with the Atlantic. Things should pick up on the Atlantic ITCZ side when the E-Pac quiets down a little along with the next eastward propagating MJO pulse into the Caribbean Basin :




There all ready is


An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Quoting 596. Gearsts:

Taking his time getting here.


Strongest of the MJO remains in the Pacific.

Quoting 597. Tazmanian:

Wave bye bye two hurricane. Season 2014. No really am not joking. Hurricane season is over and done with.
There will be more TC don't worry.
On a related side note (see chart below), remember that the current 5 day NHC graphical forecast is "experimental"; I would not give it much creedence given the rather poor conditions for development in the Central Atlantic recently. That experimental "cone" is deceiving when we are talking about cyclo-genesis and a storm that has not even formed yet................................... :)
We should begin to see some pretty significant warming across Nino 3.4 over the next 2 weeks as the 30 day SOI index is now at -7.6. El-Nino threshold is -8.0.

Average for last 30 days -7.6
Average for last 90 days -1.8
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -7.3
Quoting Gearsts:
There will be more TC don't worry.




Your a wish caster then all of you are wish caster the one that think there will be. More TC. There won't so stop wishing. It's not going two happen
606. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:
Wave bye bye two hurricane. Season 2014. No really am not joking. Hurricane season is over and done with.

yeah like super el niño :(
The season is far from over; I don't have a crystal ball but if the right wave or TD/TS comes along, and shear cooperates, we might see a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean or Gulf before this season is over and "1" will be enough if it maintains peak intensity and impact a populated area. Time will tell.
Hurricane season will be done yes but not till Nov 30th! Lots of time between now and then.



watching this tropical wave at 10% right now!
Quoting 606. JRRP:


yeah like super el niño :(


Yeah I bet you wish you had that "super el-nino" now as 2015 could suffer the same fate as the 2014 hurricane season has suffered as El-Nino is going to form question is when and how long. It would have been nice to get a decent El-Nino and then be back to a somewhat active 2015 hurricane season across the Atlantic and now that is beginning to look dim.
See you folks later in the day (gotta get some work done)................Enjoy your morning.
Quoting 611. Tazmanian:




Other wish caster No it's done it's over with you guys this don't seem to get it in your little heads of yours





I agree Taz, the status across the Atlantic will likely not change as now we are about to head into September. Only chance of seeing something over the coming weeks will be from the NW Caribbean to just off the SE US Coast. MDR is struggling and will continue to do so I'm afraid.

Buy looking at this you can see that any chance of anything forming will be close to home over the next 2 weeks.

Quoting 595. weathermanwannabe:

Finally, we might see some NHC crayons on the latest area of convection firing in the e-pac E-SW of Panama if it holds together over the next 48; as long as the E-Pac is this active, that is consistent with the inverse relationship with the Atlantic. Things should pick up on the Atlantic ITCZ side when the E-Pac quiets down a little along with the next eastward propagating MJO pulse into the Caribbean Basin :


I hope u are right
Nice blob on Cuba. It will enter Florida in one form or another. Did I see a couple of bloggers trying to set exact perimeters on when the hurricane season starts and ends again? Sheesh Louise, way to set yourself up for failure.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I agree Taz, the status across the Atlantic will likely not change as now we are about to head into September. Only chance of seeing something over the coming weeks will be from the NW Caribbean to just off the SE US Coast. MDR is struggling and will continue to do so I'm afraid.




Yep how is things looking in CA come fall and winter ? I think it could be vary wet here come mid two late. September
Quoting 613. StormTrackerScott:



I agree Taz, the status across the Atlantic will likely not change as now we are about to head into September. Only chance of seeing something over the coming weeks will be from the NW Caribbean to just off the SE US Coast. MDR is struggling and will continue to do so I'm afraid.
You agree with zero TC development until the end of the season?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I agree Taz, the status across the Atlantic will likely not change as now we are about to head into September. Only chance of seeing something over the coming weeks will be from the NW Caribbean to just off the SE US Coast. MDR is struggling and will continue to do so I'm afraid.

Buy looking at this you can see that any chance of anything forming will be close to home over the next 2 weeks.




Yep
Quoting 617. Gearsts:

You agree with zero TC development until the end of the season?


I don't agree with that no but I do think the MDR is struggling and maybe we get one nice size storm out of there this year. Best chance IMO will be close to home where we could get 2 to 4 systems from the NW Caribbean to off the SE Coast.

CFS is showing a wet winter for California along with the rest of the SW US and FL looks wet as well.


Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I don't agree with that no but I do think the MDR is struggling and maybe we get one nice size storm out of there this year. Best chance IMO will be close to home where we could get 2 to 4 systems from the NW Caribbean to off the SE Coast.


That 2 two 4 may be a little high all so see post 616
622. JRRP
anyway... see you later


Quoting StormTrackerScott:

CFS is showing a wet winter for California along with the rest of the SW US and FL looks wet as well.



The CFS is also calling for a moderate El Niño. That needs to materialize if California is going to see some drought relief.
Quoting 622. JRRP:

anyway... see you later





ITCZ. That looks interesting you?
625. JRRP
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


ITCZ. That looks interesting you?



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The CFS is also calling for a moderate El Niño. That needs to materialize if California is going to see some drought relief.



CA dos not really need a El Niño for a big rain event CA can have 2 weeks of hvy rain off and on with out a El Niño
Quoting StormTrackerScott:

CFS is showing a wet winter for California along with the rest of the SW US and FL looks wet as well.





What dos it show for Sep and October
Quoting 581. StormTrackerScott:

The longer El-Nino waits the longer the demise of the Atlantic Basin and folks that's the truth.

good morning Scott..I generally agree with your posts, but is that a rather bold statement considering what is about to transpire.? The peak is coming soon, the MDR is showing signs of losing some dry air, the waves are continuing into the Atlantic, and pressures are falling. I dunno, but that indicates to me anyway that somethings afoot.
Quoting 629. GTstormChaserCaleb:


lordy..Dat a big un..!
Quoting hydrus:
good morning Scott..I generally agree with your posts, but is that a rather bold statement considering what is about to transpire.? The peak is coming soon, the MDR is showing signs of losing some dry air, the waves are continuing into the Atlantic, and pressures are fallinf. I dunno, but that indicates to me anyway that somethings afoot.



Guys it dos not freaking Mather if we are getting two the peak of the season or not if thing are done dry high wind shear and a tone of SAl And strong trade winds. Will evere thing out there is closed. Dos not Mather if it's the peak of the season or not
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:

The GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent with making the system behind Twelve-E a major hurricane.
Can someone provide me a link where it says having an El Nino in the previous season increases storms for the following hurricane season?
Felix ‏@2WSMets 13h
@EricBlake12 what do you think of this current disturbance in the Atlantic
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Eric Blake
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@2WSMets lots of dry air and marginal shear make it a tough fcst, but overall environment is much better than a few weeks ago
Quoting 604. StormTrackerScott:

We should begin to see some pretty significant warming across Nino 3.4 over the next 2 weeks as the 30 day SOI index is now at -7.6. El-Nino threshold is -8.0.

Average for last 30 days -7.6
Average for last 90 days -1.8
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -7.3
My bet is by the middle of this winter, Nino will take hold.
Quoting 629. GTstormChaserCaleb:


wow look at the size of that tropical storm
Can someone provide me a link where it says having an El Nino in the previous season increases storms for the following hurricane season?


no link nc...but i have looked through the following years....and yes.....tropical storm activity is above average the following year
Good morning. I've just posted a blog that I worked on last night and finished up this morning. It focuses on the recent inactivity in the Atlantic (over this year and last), and whether we have reached the end of the active period we have had in the Atlantic since 1995. I think the most telling thing will be how the basin reacts whenever we finally get an El Nino (hopefully this winter).

Link
Quoting 639. ricderr:

Can someone provide me a link where it says having an El Nino in the previous season increases storms for the following hurricane season?


no link nc...but i have looked through the following years....and yes.....tropical storm activity is above average the following year

1995, 1998, and 2010 are all good examples.
good morning Scott..I generally agree with your posts, but is that a rather bold statement considering what is about to transpire.? The peak is coming soon, the MDR is showing signs of losing some dry air, the waves are continuing into the Atlantic, and pressures are falling. I dunno, but that indicates to me anyway that somethings afoo

not only bold...but not factual
Link nice spin at 32 west!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis. html the link if you wanted to see the spin with rain at 32 west
great spin at 32 west its look like the spin of the low its spinning up faster now
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Models still forecasting a trough split over FL this weekend with the Euro hinting at a chance for something to form after this disturbance crosses and heads into the Gulf on the way to New Orleans as a possible developed system.

Here it is at 180hrs crossing FL.


Here is 240hrs heading for New Orleans.



Those charts show preciptable water and no pressures lower than 1014 mb. They aren't showing a developed storm of any kind.
Blog is so cranky today.
Quoting 639. ricderr:

Can someone provide me a link where it says having an El Nino in the previous season increases storms for the following hurricane season?


no link nc...but i have looked through the following years....and yes.....tropical storm activity is above average the following year


now you know on this blog evidence of scientific proof has to be stated that includes a link of a study..just because there was above average activity can we say with 100% that it was because we had an el nino the previous year or was it because we were in another ENSO pattern?
Hi Hydrus, a lot of Taz's post are on subject and helpful, but every now and then he looks like a troll on here with some of his post, as for Scott, it's Scott being Scott. Their will be quite a few more storms this season and yes Taz you need to sit back, relax and watch and learn. Weather is a wonder of nature.
652. VR46L
I Know I am considered a downcaster but I don't think this season is a bust , the most active part of the season usually happens mid Aug to Oct . No El Nino yet, so while in neutral there could be a major burst of activity

The Central Atlantic is warm enough and the gulf is ,well you know ,Rocket Fuel!



and regarding our friend SAL its not as bad as it was last year it really is not

AT MID and upper levels it is getting moist



Admittedly it has to work down to lower levels before the Atlantic becomes Ripe for development
1995, 1998, and 2010 are all good examples.


i don't have my note book in front of me...but i think there was only one year that wasn't above average and i also think that followed a modoki
now you know on this blog evidence of scientific proof has to be stated that includes a link of a study..just because there was above average activity can we say with 100% that it was because we had an el nino the previous year or was it because we were in another ENSO pattern?


hmmm...could it be a coincindence....sure...but it happened nevertheless
Quoting 757. Webberweather53:



IMHO, it's not hard to figure out what is causing the issues for the Atlantic & it comes down to the MEI (or ENSO index, pic your favorite). The lack of an El Nino does a number of things not just to the Atlantic, but to the global tropics in general. Through sunlight & atmospheric driven processes, the displacement of water out of the western Pacific & the subsequent upwelling leads to a redistribution of heat into the atmosphere, thus it's also why there is a tendency for the global ACE index to spike in the presence of El Ninos, as was the case during the 1990s, & most recently in 2006, & then fall when La Nina returns....


The effects of ENSO on the Atlantic are profound throughout a wide range of timescales, and it's also evident that the AMO index which generally modulates Atlantic Hurricane activity, lags ENSO & MEI, especially over a long period of time. Comparing the two phenomena, it's obvious this relationship exists. The extension of the Pacific jet causes the Aleutian low to intensify and shift east, as the left exit region of the jet where air diverges towards the poles also shifts eastward as result of El Nino through increased SSTs that finally become supportive of significant latent processes, thus promoting intraseasonal eastward shifts of the MJO, and hence the aforementioned Pacific Jet shits via increases in poleward propagating upper level divergence from tropical convection, leading to a relative bottleneck of mass in the Pacific jet that must be compensated for by increases in jet speed. This increase in Atmospheric Angular Momentum also forces a trough on the lee side of the Appalachians, giving aid to the invigorated subtropical jet over the western hemisphere, commonplace in El Nino.

Warm AMO DJF 500mb N hem pattern


All El Ninos since 1950 DJF 500mb N hem pattern


MEI vs AMO index 1950-present (Note how closely the AMO follows the MEI, thus should you be surprised, given recent downturns of the AMO, that this was eventually going to transpire w/ the MEI crash that occurred in the late 2000s?)


Thus, when you go w/o El Nino, or experience a period with scant El Ninos for that matter, the AMO is @ some pt bound to fall, especially considering that w/o the El Nino in the northern hemisphere winter to erode warmth in the subtropical Atlantic, over time, heat will begin to accumulate in the subtropics, as is the case over the last few years. This accumulation of heat in the subtropical Atlantic stretches & weakens the Hadley Cell over the Atlantic by focusing upward motion over a broader area, instead of in the deep tropics, thus air will have a greater tendency to sink. This sinking air also leads to drying & w/ drying out of the atmosphere and then comes a lack of instability (as is currently the case) as drier parcels of air rising through the atmospheric column will cool faster than those which are saturated, and this is simply due to the fact that the release of latent heat keeps the air warmer than it otherwise would have been, leading to taller & longer-lived thunderstorms & mesoscale convective complexes, which thereby induce lowering pressures & have the capability to take more advantage of favorable intraseasonal states imparted by a variety of Equatorial Wave types & even mid-latitude Rossby Waves. In addition, I want to mention that the prominence of dry air in the Atlantic is not due to the Saharan Air Layer. Although the portion of the atmosphere @ which the SAL occupies & significantly affects is drier than normal...

850 mb relative humidity deep tropical Atlantic June-July 2014



The dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere doesn't even compare to how dry the atmosphere is in the upper portions of the troposphere, which implies that the SAL that dominates primarily below 500mb is not to blame for the lack of instability & dry air throughout the tropical Atlantic this season, giving credence to influence from the MEI & ENSO index...
300mb relative humidity deep tropical Atlantic June-July 2014







I'm reposting this very well-written post because obviously a lot of effort was put into it and I think that everyone should read it. Also it might provide an explanation for the unfavorable conditions that have been dominating the Atlantic over the past few seasons and its connection with the recent lack of El Niño, as the debate on the existence of such a connection has come up again.
There is a blogger who has an obsession with El Nino who has gone as far as saying that El Nino is a prerequisite to kick start the MDR. In other words if El Nino never materialize then the atlantic hurricane season will never be the same
Quoting Gearsts:
Blog is so cranky today.
No storms + infallible crystal balls = cranky blog
Both the GFS and CMC are sending a surge of EPac moisture into SoCal over the next 2 weeks, although the timing is very different. I'll take it.

659. silas

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Blobzilla!!!
if this moisture surge moving over calif comes true canadian model was the first to sniff it out.
El Nino is most likely not going to happen for a while, which may upset Scott, but its just mere fact. The 3.4 region is currently -0.2 which is closer to La Nina than El Nino. So its best to just keep watch and try not to make outlandish calls into what will happen in the future. Still predicting 9-11 named storms this season, and a possibility of a weak El Nino this fall, but from the looks of it now its not even close.

i am a lurker with a wu pws, only one step above a weather rock. i come here to keep myself informed in case i have to prepare here in central florida. still trying to figure out the alphabet soup of acronyms. i am curious about the debate between those with a self-appointed seal of approval (wish-casters) and the disappointment with this seasons atlantic activivity. If you are truly turned on about the science of hurricanes, why dont you focus on whats happened in the pacific this year. why does it have to happen in atlantic basin? I am no spring chicken and have been through some really bad canes. I cant imagine anyone that has, wishing for a land falling cane. Everyone stay safe, have fun. respectfully yours
Quoting 654. ricderr:

now you know on this blog evidence of scientific proof has to be stated that includes a link of a study..just because there was above average activity can we say with 100% that it was because we had an el nino the previous year or was it because we were in another ENSO pattern?


hmmm...could it be a coincindence....sure...but it happened nevertheless
The pacific has been confused and hasn't had a el nino or la nina in 3 years now..Something needs to happen.A sort of "balance"
I Know I am considered a downcaster but I don't think this season is a bust , the most active part of the season usually happens mid Aug to Oct . No El Nino yet, so while in neutral there could be a major burst of activity

The Central Atlantic is warm enough and the gulf is ,well you know ,Rocket Fuel!



i believe it will be slow...but to call it aa bust in august.....so premature....sounds uneducated to me




El Nino is most likely not going to happen for a while, which may upset Scott, but its just mere fact. The 3.4 region is currently -0.2 which is closer to La Nina than El Nino. So its best to just keep watch and try not to make outlandish calls into what will happen in the future. Still predicting 9-11 named storms this season, and a possibility of a weak El Nino this fall, but from the looks of it now its not even close

hey stormy......the longer el nino waits...the longer our friends can get it wrong....ta da da boom!
The pacific has been confused and hasn't had a el nino or la nina in 3 years now..Something needs to happen.A sort of "balance"

you could be onto something.....
No storms + infallible crystal balls = cranky blog



but i'm not cranky....today anyways.......guess i better have my first cup....and see if that changes anything...i might still be asleep
Talk of an El Nio year cools, but don%u2019t despair yet about winter
BY MARK GROSSI
The Fresno BeeAugust 16, 2014
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In 2010, during the last El Nino, the snow-pack was about average. Shot was taken near Watts Valley Road. JOHN WALKER %u2014 Fresno Bee Staff Photo
With the media attention, it's not easy to look away from this rock star of California weather. El Nio, a sprawling blob of warm water in the Pacific Ocean, appeared in spring, raising the chances of a gully-washing winter.

But the blob has cooled a little and so have hopes that it would break this desperate drought -- at least in the media. Meteorologists say this is just a dose of reality, and it's no time to despair.

There are other blobs in the sea.

"I've been downplaying El Nio all year," said Fresno-area meteorologist Steve Johnson. "I haven't lost hope for winter storms. I just think you have to look in other places around the Pacific to get clues."

Among the other things happening in the 64 million square miles of the Pacific Ocean, there is a warm-water pocket in the Gulf of Alaska. That warm water was around last winter, Johnson said.

There is a depressing chance it could factor into another dry season, he said. There also is a chance it could change things and allow more storms into California. Or, maybe El Nio still will come riding to the rescue.


In other words, it's too early to forecast winter precipitation with any real confidence.

I had a lot of issues with the high school bailing out of the storm shelter to try to outrun the tornado in buses. The tornado was known to be stronger than the shelter could withstand but the reality is the buses would probably have been overtaken and destroyed with higher percentage life loss. The myth that tornadoes can be outrun in vehicles persists and remains deadly in urban areas.

I had a minor problem with the older kid's near (very near] drowning and not getting to an emergency room posthaste. Anyone who has inhaled water needs to be evaluated for pulmonary edema or pneumonia both of which can be quickly fatal within minutes and can set in many hours after the incident.

Multiple small vortices have been observed in the past. I remember a case where up to six were visible but these were over a region of several miles in radius.

Most of the special effects tornadoes were spatially too small. The big one was about right in size but moved too slowly. The formation from merger of smaller vortices was unrealistic.

It has been known since the 19'th century that "safe to 170mph" is not at all safe in even a moderate tornado and it would be insane to attempt an intercept in such a vehicle.

670. FOREX
Quoting 598. StormTrackerScott:



Well your just being ridiculous as if anything forms it will remain weak but a potential for something atleast. I think the only thing you are good at is trolling Dr. Roods blog and Doc's blog. Instead of trolling you should be golfing as that is your handle.


Trolling is cheaper
671. VR46L
Quoting 664. ricderr:

I Know I am considered a downcaster but I don't think this season is a bust , the most active part of the season usually happens mid Aug to Oct . No El Nino yet, so while in neutral there could be a major burst of activity

The Central Atlantic is warm enough and the gulf is ,well you know ,Rocket Fuel!



i believe it will be slow...but to call it aa bust in august.....so premature....sounds uneducated to me







I didn't ~ but I saw some are saying the season was finished or a bust this past few days

Also MJO is coming

Scientists were expecting a big El Niño this year. So where did it go?
Updated by Brad Plumer on August 13, 2014, 3:20 p.m. ET @bradplumer brad@vox.com

Earlier this spring, a number of experts suggested that we could see a strong El Niño in the fall or winter of 2014, perhaps similar to the monster event in 1997-98 that upended weather patterns across the globe. That might mean record temperatures, floods in some areas, droughts in others — a really big deal.

THE ODDS OF A STRONG EL NIÑO HAVE DECREASED OF LATE

But in the months since, scientists have gotten a surprise: El Niño isn't unfolding quite as expected, and many of the bolder predictions from earlier this year have become more cautious.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center recently dropped the odds of an El Niño this fall or winter from 80 percent down to 65 percent. And Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says there's just a 50 percent chance. What's more, both agencies are now only forecasting a "weak" or "moderate" El Niño — and likely not a strong one.

(In fairness, it's worth noting that neither of those government agencies had ever said a strong El Niño was certain, and that quite a few scientists were emphasizing caution about predictions back in the spring.)*

It's a notable shift, and scientists are still puzzling over what exactly happened. And the stakes are fairly high: El Niño can be terrible news for some countries (they bring heavy flooding to Peru, for instance) but excellent news for others (an El Niño might bring much-needed rain to drought-ravaged California). So it's worth getting a better sense of what's going on here.
Place Alerts Temp. Humidity Pressure Conditions Wind Updated
Bridgeport 72 °F 57% 29.89 in (Falling) Clear NW at 13 mph 9:52 AM EDT Save
Danbury 68 °F 61% 29.91 in (Falling) Clear WNW at 8 mph 9:53 AM EDT Save
Groton 70 °F 63% 29.86 in (Steady) Clear WNW at 8 mph 9:56 AM EDT Save
Hartford 71 °F 55% 29.88 in (Steady) Partly Cloudy NNW at 7 mph 9:53 AM EDT Save
Meriden 72 °F 53% 29.88 in (Falling) Clear NW at 10 mph 9:53 AM EDT Save
Mystic 70.5 °F 63% 29.86 in (Steady) Clear WNW at 10.1 mph 10:24 AM EDT Save
New Haven 71.8 °F 65% 29.89 in (Falling) Clear Calm 10:18 AM EDT Save
Norwich 71 °F 51% 29.87 in (Steady) Clear NW at 12 mph 9:52 AM EDT Save
Oxford 66.6 °F 72% 29.91 in (Falling) Partly Cloudy Calm 10:20 AM EDT Save
Torrington 68 °F 64% 29.91 in (Falling) Partly Cloudy NNW at 9 mph 9:55 AM EDT Save
Waterbury 68 °F 64% 29.91 in (Falling) Partly Cloudy NNW at 9 mph 9:55 AM EDT Save
Willimantic 71.1 °F 54% 29.87 in (Steady) Clear SE at 1.7 mph 10:24 AM EDT Save
Windsor Locks 72 °F 53% 29.87 in (Steady) Partly Cloudy NNW at 7 mph 9:51 AM EDT Save
I didn't ~ but I saw some are saying the season was finished or a bust this past few days


sorry if i caused confusion vr...i was aggreeing with you...i never meant to imply you were among those calling it a bust already
Quoting 610. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah I bet you wish you had that "super el-nino" now as 2015 could suffer the same fate as the 2014 hurricane season has suffered as El-Nino is going to form question is when and how long. It would have been nice to get a decent El-Nino and then be back to a somewhat active 2015 hurricane season across the Atlantic and now that is beginning to look dim.

Quoting 635. ncstorm:

Can someone provide me a link where it says having an El Nino in the previous season increases storms for the following hurricane season?


Gladly nc:

www.having an El Nino in the previous season increases storms for the following hurricane season.org
Quoting 610. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah I bet you wish you had that "super el-nino" now as 2015 could suffer the same fate as the 2014 hurricane season has suffered as El-Nino is going to form question is when and how long. It would have been nice to get a decent El-Nino and then be back to a somewhat active 2015 hurricane season across the Atlantic and now that is beginning to look dim.


You can't say that with even 5% certainty Scott and you know that. How can you make that kind of prediction when you can't even get El Nino straight. Hurricanes are very dependent on meso-scale features which even long range climates models can't resolve with any accuracy.
Quoting 675. HaoleboySurfEC:




Gladly nc:

www.having an El Nino in the previous season increases storms for the following hurricane season.org


LOL..your link doesn't work..
Quoting 677. ncstorm:



LOL..your link doesn't work..


That will be $1.99 please.
Quoting FOREX:


Trolling is cheaper
LOL - so true.
680. VR46L
Quoting 674. ricderr:

I didn't ~ but I saw some are saying the season was finished or a bust this past few days


sorry if i caused confusion vr...i was aggreeing with you...i never meant to imply you were among those calling it a bust already


Your Ok ... I sometimes misread things :)
681. SLU
Quoting 661. StormWx:

El Nino is most likely not going to happen for a while, which may upset Scott, but its just mere fact. The 3.4 region is currently -0.2 which is closer to La Nina than El Nino. So its best to just keep watch and try not to make outlandish calls into what will happen in the future. Still predicting 9-11 named storms this season, and a possibility of a weak El Nino this fall, but from the looks of it now its not even close.




El Ni-NO.
Quoting 649. STORMW2014:

Stormtracker and Taz need to get a room this morning, quit with your bogus forecasting crap
TrollTrackerScott makes the blog a comedy.
Quoting 681. SLU:



El Ni-NO.
Sahara dust covering my car this morning. Haze in the sky in South Florida.
Quoting 675. HaoleboySurfEC:




Gladly nc:

www.having an El Nino in the previous season increases storms for the following hurricane season.org
That person is in there feelings because everytime they go over to Rood's blog they are asked for a link.You didn't need to provide anything.
There is dust in the air in southern Florida this morning. It makes the sky appear so hazy.

Sorry- that was already stated in 684.
The low pressure that was with the area that NHC has been watching has been dropped. Things may gel to the east if those two lows merge.





There's still 3 and a half weeks until the peak of the season, a lot can change between now and then. Anybody down-casting the entire season based on activity up to this point is just blowing smoke!
Quoting 632. Tazmanian:




Guys it dos not freaking Mather if we are getting two the peak of the season or not if thing are done dry high wind shear and a tone of SAl And strong trade winds. Will evere thing out there is closed. Dos not Mather if it's the peak of the season or not
I get the point Taz..We all are here to learn and to post what we believe will happen. I think the pattern is changing, and the dry air is losing its grip on the MDR. Storms baby, big , powerful storms..If I,m wrong..delicious crow to stock my craw.
Quoting 658. TimSoCal:

Both the GFS and CMC are sending a surge of EPac moisture into SoCal over the next 2 weeks, although the timing is very different. I'll take it.



Actually, it's aimed more at Central and Northern California. Then again, it's a minority opinion among the various models at this time.
Quoting 690. BayFog:

Actually, it's aimed more at Central and Northern California. Then again, it's a minority opinion among the various models at this time.


That's even more beneficial. The Sierras would actually be able to squeeze some decent rain out of a moisture plume like that, which would help with the drying resorvoirs.

A second summer rain event in CA would also seem to indicate a favorable pattern for real rain going into the fall wet season.
Quoting 689. hydrus:

I get the point Taz..We all are here to learn and to post what we believe will happen. I think the pattern is changing, and the dry air is losing its grip on the MDR. Storms baby, big , powerful storms..If I,m wrong..delicious crow to stock my craw.
I don't agree with taz that the entire season is over,however the same was said about last hurricane season and that big "jump" or "start up" never did happen.
There's still 3 and a half weeks until the peak of the season, a lot can change between now and then. Anybody down-casting the entire season based on activity up to this point is just blowing smoke!

Quoting 687. Tropicsweatherpr:

The low pressure that was with the area that NHC has been watching has been dropped. Things may gel to the east if those two lows merge.




Area to the east looking better.
Quoting 686. rmbjoe1954:

There is dust in the air in southern Florida this morning. It makes the sky appear so hazy.

Sorry- that was already stated in 684.
Hey, stop reading my mind!
Wash, It seems the only person into feelings is you as I never respond directly or indirectly to your posts until now but yet you always want to say something harshly about mine..its immature and only starts arguments which you only seem to want and well I'm too old for that..

I'm asking for the sake of the blog for you to stop and you just deal with you and let me be...as women we are better than this and it just seems catty for you to constantly come at me..

I'm supposed to be on ignore I hope but if you can see this post please for the sake of civility move on already..


Quoting Gearsts:
Area to the east looking better.

Looking better than what ????

:):))
This morning I said that the low clouds were streaming towards the low at 33Wwhere I believe there was more consolidation in that area. now that the NHC has dropped the low at 42W. the energy will be transferred to 12N 33W , which if the convection were to persist for the next 24 hours could be designated 96L.
I certainly lurk more than post. I'm learning more and more every day. The two things I do know, It only takes one big one to 'make a season'. There is an ignore button.

after been out for a while ,I just seeing a lot of wishcasters ,due to lack of activity in the season.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The low pressure that was with the area that NHC has been watching has been dropped. Things may gel to the east if those two lows merge.





The low shown in red is dissipating. There will only be one low left.
The area is moving west and should do so for the next few days. Maybe could be a threat to T&T if the track continues west. The last time that T&T was affected was Anna in 1970
Quoting 697. pottery:


Looking better than what ????

:):))
Pottery looks better
Quoting 699. MonsterTrough:

I certainly lurk more than post. I'm learning more and more every day. The two things I do know, It only takes one big one to 'make a season'. There is an ignore button.


Thanks for giving me these seasonably cool temps trough!.
Quoting 700. aussiecold:

after been out for a while ,I just seeing a lot of wishcasters ,due to lack of activity in the season.
Agree.The blog is full of wishcasters.
Quoting 686. rmbjoe1954:

There is dust in the air in southern Florida this morning. It makes the sky appear so hazy.

Sorry- that was already stated in 684.
No need to say your sorry because I notice every time Doctor Masters posts new blog on this site he get's thanked about 39 times which I always thought was a little ridiculous and redundant.
Quoting 693. ricderr:

There's still 3 and a half weeks until the peak of the season, a lot can change between now and then. Anybody down-casting the entire season based on activity up to this point is just blowing smoke!


Member of the Wishcasters Association of America.
Quoting 697. pottery:


Looking better than what ????

:):))
The trash low to the west.
Member of the Wishcasters Association of America.


i only wishcast when there's a possibility of a cat 5 hitting tampa....until then...i downcast all the way
No need to say your sorry because I notice every time Doctor Masters posts new blog on this site he get's thanked about 39 times which I always thought was a little ridiculous and redundant.


thanx
00z Navgem Ensembles





last frame..
Quoting 709. ricderr:

Member of the Wishcasters Association of America.


i only wishcast when there's a possibility of a cat 5 hitting tampa....until then...i downcast all the way
Sorry.I think im a wishcasters like you,specially a cat 5 hitting that same place.
Quoting 706. HurriHistory:
No need to say your sorry because I notice every time Doctor Masters posts new blog on this site he get's thanked about 39 times which I always thought was a little ridiculous and redundant.


Perhaps some of us appreciate the fact that he takes the time and effort.
Quoting 713. Greg01:



Perhaps some of us appreciate the fact that he takes the time and effort.

Appreciate very, very much.
Thank you, Dr. Masters.
Quoting 704. washingtonian115:

Thanks for giving me these seasonably cool temps trough!.


Your back is going to hate me in winter. Shovels ready. I'm changing handle to polartrough in October.
I am not a wishcaster, or downcaster, i am a realcaster... i have lived in South Florida for 25 years and know by this point, what a season will end up looking like.

Prepare yourself for blobapalooza. This season will continue to drag on at this pace. We may get 2 or 3 hurricanes, but they will likely be poorly organized and most will question their categorization. The most excitement we might get this year is a homegrown TS that gives some of us a nice downpour.

It is, what it is...

6-2-0
Hey look a new BIG wave approaching the Verdes,but wishcasters dont get excited it will be the same sad results for you.
Quoting 657. sar2401:

No storms + infallible crystal balls = cranky blog


No storms means I occupy my time with the many other things that demand it (and there is of coursenever
enough to get everything done)

I'm happy to see a slow or dead year in the Atlantic Basin.. one (or several) less things I have to
worry about in August, September and October.

Snow doesn't scare me. That's easy to be prepared for and it won't destroy my house.
the yellow x will going down 0% and 10% notting happern with that tropical wave with that yellow x wait of time
5.8
26km E of Dehloran, Iran
2014-08-18 04:51:34 UTC-07:0010.0 km
5.2
33km E of Dehloran, Iran
2014-08-18 04:23:03 UTC-07:0010.0 km
4.9
31km E of Dehloran, Iran
2014-08-18 01:05:26 UTC-07:0010.0 km
5.6
45km E of Dehloran, Iran
2014-08-17 22:25:50 UTC-07:0010.0 km
4.7
45km ESE of Dehloran, Iran
2014-08-17 21:39:30 UTC-07:0010.0 km
4.9
33km E of Dehloran, Iran
2014-08-17 21:20:41 UTC-07:0010.0 km
4.5
25km E of Dehloran, Iran
2014-08-17 20:11:30 UTC-07:0010.0 km
4.7
21km ESE of Dehloran, Iran
2014-08-17 20:01:33 UTC-07:0010.0 km
6.2
36km SE of Abdanan, Iran
2014-08-17 19:32:05 UTC-07:0010.0 km

plate boundary
Quoting 697. pottery:


Looking better than what ????

:):))
he talking about the low at 33 west
Quoting 713. Greg01:



Perhaps some of us appreciate the fact that he takes the time and effort.
I'm sure most of the people that read this blog like myself appreciates Doctor Masters input but to thank him so many times is unnecessary. When I first got on this site and saw all these thank you, thank you, thank you's I thought it a little odd. I think once or twice or three times is ENOUGH!
Quoting 716. swflEagle:

I am not a wishcaster, or downcaster, i am a realcaster... i have lived in South Florida for 25 years and know by this point, what a season will end up looking like.

Prepare yourself for blobapalooza. This season will continue to drag on at this pace. We may get 2 or 3 hurricanes, but they will likely be poorly organized and most will question their categorization. The most excitement we might get this year is a homegrown TS that gives some of us a nice downpour.

It is, what it is...

6-2-0
So with that numbers many here are considering you as downcaster.
In summary I was less bothered by plot and acting and more by the meteorological faults (cheeezy lines which involve weather count as faulty meteorology, not bad acting in my (arguable) opinion)
I just have one question.

What is making this year's East (including east into central) PAC season as strong as it is - not in terms of threatening to Hawaii, but in terms of the number and strength of TCs?
Quoting 724. georgevandenberghe:

In summary I was less bothered by plot and acting and more by the meteorological faults (cheeezy lines which involve weather count as faulty meteorology, not bad acting in my (arguable) opinion)

What ?
Quoting 724. georgevandenberghe:

In summary I was less bothered by plot and acting and more by the meteorological faults (cheeezy lines which involve weather count as faulty meteorology, not bad acting in my (arguable) opinion)

Bad scriptwriting.
Have a nice Moonday, everyone.
Quoting 715. MonsterTrough:



Your back is going to hate me in winter. Shovels ready. I'm changing handle to polartrough in October.
I always keep the pain reliever on stand by!.
Quoting 725. Barefootontherocks:
I just have one question.

What is making this year's East (including east into central) PAC season as strong as it is - not in terms of threatening to Hawaii, but in terms of the number and strength of TCs?


Lots of warmth available, at least in the EPac.


Also seems like wind shear has been consistently low.
Remnants of ex94L should make the Gulf where shear is very low and SST's very high. Not much left of it but some minor spin and very little convection, but it's not completely gone. Regeneration chance?
Quoting 729. TimSoCal:



Lots of warmth available, at least in the EPac.


Also seems like wind shear has been consistently low.



Both are common and expected responses to East Pac warming and usually occur in El Nino years, so
not a surprise
Quoting 730. DeepSeaRising:

Remnants of ex94L should make the Gulf where shear is very low and SST's very high. Not much left of it but some minor spin and very little convection, but it's not completely gone. Regeneration chance?

<0.01% chance of regeneration at this point.

Quoting 715. MonsterTrough:



Your back is going to hate me in winter. Shovels ready. I'm changing handle to polartrough in October.


I'm ready. For me it's sorely needed exercise.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Remnants of ex94L should make the Gulf where shear is very low and SST's very high. Not much left of it but some minor spin and very little convection, but it's not completely gone. Regeneration chance?
LOL. I have a better chance of 10 inches of rain at my house in the next hour. :-)
Thx for the review! I saw the preview and decided to pass. Looked worse that Twister (and even Day after Tomorrow?) and now you confirmed it! At least I can watch SyFy for 'free' and this weekend they had 'Ice Twisters' (www.imdb.com/title/tt1334456/reviews)! Horrible, but a time killer for 30 minutes (I couldn't watch all of it...)
0.01 chance. :) Yeah just a weak open wave at this point, final death stroke should be it's travel over northern Cuba. Clearly still weakening in satellite pic. AOI that's at 30% for five day really doesn't look all that promising either.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I just have one question.

What is making this year's East (including east into central) PAC season as strong as it is - not in terms of threatening to Hawaii, but in terms of the number and strength of TCs?

Above-average sea surface temperatures focusing upward motion in that portion of the world. Shear has actually been anomalously high in the East Pacific the past few months.
maybe a yellow x on the tropical wave at 33 west nice spin to it.
12z GFS is forecasting what should eventually become Marie will develop into a powerful hurricane. Down to 954mb at 180 hours.
i am stiil watching 33 west!!
Ok first off I decided to try WU on my smartphone its ok don't like it too much

Ok second thing the area in the E and central atlantic is a monsoon trof you can have many lows developing and dissipating along it so I'm not surprised that NHC sfc charts are showing lows dissipating and developing now because of this NHC says development of one of the lows is expected BUT NOT within the next 48HRS

Ok third and last thing the former Invest 94L is currently passing over us with a few strong T-Storms and showers with generally light to moderate wind with a few strong gusts in and around showers now I know that there is always a chance for it to develop it has thunderstorms but the way it currently looks I have to say prob. Of it forming is less than 5% within the next 3 days now if it can redevelop convection and stronger winds with a circulation within the NW Carib and GOM I'd up the chances to 50% and it becomes an invest now beyond that is predicting with your head in the sand well because well we are trying to develop something from a little thunderstorm
OFF TOPIC BUT IMPORTANT...JUST CLIPPED THIS FROM CNN.......................................NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Community Health Systems, which operates 206 hospitals across the United States, announced on Monday that hackers recently broke into its computers and stole data on 4.5 million patients.

Hackers have gained access to their names, Social Security numbers, physical addresses, birthdays and telephone numbers.





Anyone who received treatment from a network-owned hospital in the last five years -- or was merely referred there by an outside doctor -- is affected.
Quoting 739. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS is forecasting what should eventually become Marie, will develop into a powerful hurricane. Down to 954mb at 180 hours.




33 west is the best looking low right now lets see what happern in a fews days from now
well the 12z Navgem is trying to crank them out..

108 hours
Hottest temps of summer to come yet for me.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
0.01 chance. :) Yeah just a weak open wave at this point, final death stroke should be it's travel over northern Cuba. Clearly still weakening in satellite pic. AOI that's at 30% for five day really doesn't look all that promising either.
It's crashing into the mountains of Cuba now. Never has so much been expected of so little. The whole "wave train" off Africa is looking pretty sick. It's looks like the current AOI will be #2 to join the world of the living dead without even making it to invest stage. Pretty sad for the back end of August.

so a .01 means if i bet 1$ if 94 develops in the gulf i'd get 100$?
Quoting 730. DeepSeaRising:

Remnants of ex94L should make the Gulf where shear is very low and SST's very high. Not much left of it but some minor spin and very little convection, but it's not completely gone. Regeneration chance?
only 5%
Quoting 658. TimSoCal:

Both the GFS and CMC are sending a surge of EPac moisture into SoCal over the next 2 weeks, although the timing is very different. I'll take it.





I wouldn't buy it until there is consistency for a while. Many here are complaining about how bad the drought is in California, which is true, but people also need to be aware how normal it is to be extremely dry throughout the whole summer. Getting heavy rain in Southern CA in the summer is like frozen precip in FL, it happens, but it isn't normal or common. We shouldn't be surprised that CA isn't getting any drought relief this time of year, because well, its already a dry climate, and there is a long stretch this time of year, where any rain at all is unusual, much less heavy rain for drought relief.

Of course, I'm not saying it can't happen, sure it could. Weather certainly does not always obey climatology. I'm just saying that it seems an awful lot of bloggers act as if CA should be getting drought relief right now, as if its surprising how dry its been lately. Its normal to be this dry this time of year. If its still this dry in the winter, then it will really be scary. Its just that they already had severe drought going into this normally dry period.
The 2014 Atlantic season is now slower in producing the third tropical storm than back to 2000 when it took till August 18th at 1100 am to produce Chris. And there is no storm emminent.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Hottest temps of summer to come yet for me.
Thanks. I was trying to pretend that wasn't coming...
I find it interesting to note that "Sharknado" was the highest rated disaster movie by the RT critics :)
Ahh Boom,boom,boom..boom'


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop ical.asp
To follow up on something mentioned yesterday here (as it could have an effect in future Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones):

Quoting 71. ILwthrfan:
How thick is the ice sheet on the summit of the Volcano?


About 700m, or about 2300 ft, or a bit under half a mile. (It's Europe's largest glacier, if that helps.)

It's notable, perhaps, that today the Icelandic government raised the volcano's status to orange, the second highest on that nation's volcano advisory scale. Here's the statement:

"The intense seismic activity that started on 16 of August at Bardarbunga persists. Very strong indications of ongoing magma movement, in connection with dyke intrusion, is corroborated by GPS measurements. There are currently two swarms: one to the E of Bardarbunga caldera and one at the edge of Dyngjujokull just E of Kistufell. At 2.37 am on the 18th a strong earthquake (M4) was located in the Kistufell swarm.

"This is the strongest earthquake measured in the region since 1996. As evidence of magma movement shallower than 10 km implies increased potential of a volcanic eruption, the Bárðarbunga aviation color code has been changed to orange. Presently there are no signs of eruption, but it cannot be excluded that the current activity will result in an explosive subglacial eruption, leading to an outburst flood (jökulhlaup) and ash emission. The situation is monitored closely."

Lorcan Roche Kelly at Agenda Research suggested the following scenarios:

    There is a chance there will be no eruption.

    It could be too small to matter. There was an eruption in the area in 1996 that did not break through the ice. While this eruption did lead to a destructive jökulhlaup a rapid flood of melted water from the glacier damage was restricted to areas the flood hit. There was no ash cloud.

    It could break though the ice, cause a small ash cloud, but lead to minimal disruption to air traffic. The 2011 eruption of Grimsvotn, also under Vatnajokull, had these characteristics. That eruption only lead to the cancellation of 900 flights and some re-routing on north Atlantic routes.

    It could be a repeat of Eyjafjallajokull. If the volcano erupts, breaks through the ice-cap and produces large volumes of ash, we will likely see major air travel disruption during what is still peak holiday season.

    There is a very small chance that an eruption could be something very much larger, along the scale of the 1783 Laki eruption. In the case of an eruption this size, the major problem would not be flight disruption caused by ash, although that certainly would happen but rather the devastating impact on climate and farming across the northern hemisphere. To give an idea of the scale, some research points to the Laki eruption being a trigger for the French Revolution.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:




Looks like this one might want to visit California.



watching right now
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
168 hours
wow i see three low here two in the water one on land
Quoting 743. MAweatherboy1:




Good grief, GFS... I'm gonna go ahead and say a storm of this size is not going to happen.
You know business must be bad if the main guy is reviewing movies! is there anything else that is more important to discuss? You should have talked about Expendables III, as it was a MUCH better movie, more exciting too!
Quoting LargoFl:
OFF TOPIC BUT IMPORTANT...JUST CLIPPED THIS FROM CNN.......................................NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Community Health Systems, which operates 206 hospitals across the United States, announced on Monday that hackers recently broke into its computers and stole data on 4.5 million patients.

Hackers have gained access to their names, Social Security numbers, physical addresses, birthdays and telephone numbers. Anyone who received treatment from a network-owned hospital in the last five years -- or was merely referred there by an outside doctor -- is affected.
Unfortunately, the CHS website has collapsed as everyone is trying to find out if their local hospital is part of the CHS chain. The cached copy on Google doesn't work for locations either. Most of their hospitals and clinics are located in small towns and rural areas but some locations like PA and FL have hospitals in large cities. I have not been able to find a source for location information except bits and pieces anywhere outside their non-functioning web site.
766. 7544
Quoting 762. hurricanes2018:

wow i see three low here two in the water one on land


is it too early for a drum roll ? but i believe i believe ! but i may be the only one lol
Quoting 765. sar2401:

Unfortunately, the CHS website has collapsed as everyone is trying to find out if their local hospital is part of the CHS chain. The cached copy on Google doesn't work for locations either. Most of their hospitals and clinics are located in small towns and rural areas but some locations like PA and FL have hospitals in large cities. I have not been able to find a source for location information except bits and pieces anywhere outside their non-functioning web site.
thanks sar..ive been trying to find out which local hospitals are part of it and no luck here either..maybe tomorrow or later in the week.